The Memphis Grizzlies should be rooting hard for Jaren Jackson Jr. to make an All-NBA team (increasingly likely) or to win Defensive Player of the Year (Jackson is in the mix, but it may be Victor Wembanyama’s award to lose) for the 2024-25 season.

Breaking News: NBA team wants their player to get accolades for a great season.

No kidding, right?

But this goes way deeper for Jackson and Memphis. And it could ultimately have an impact on the team’s ability to keep their versatile big man long-term. Before we go there, let’s go back to understand where the Grizzlies and Jackson are currently at.

Back in the 2021 offseason (in October due to the COVID-impacted adjusted calendar), the Grizzlies signed Jackson to a four-year, $104.7 million rookie scale extension. Memphis got Jackson on an under-market deal because he was coming off a knee injury that had cost him most of the 2020-21 season.

Beyond getting Jackson for less than the max, the Grizzlies were hailed at the time for making the extension a declining contract. Jackson’s extension looks like this:

• 2022-23: $28,946,605
• 2023-24: $27,102,202
• 2024-25: $25,257,798
• 2025-26: $23,413,395
• Total: four years, $107,720,000

Well done by Memphis, right? Jackson is clearly returning more than $25.3 million in value this season (more on that in a moment) and he’s an absolute steal at $23.4 million for next season. Hard to find any criticism for the Grizzlies with this deal.

Well, not exactly…kind of. It’s not really the Grizzlies fault, but more of the circumstances of the CBA.

Memphis did a great job protecting themselves on this deal. Despite some great flashes in his first two seasons, Jackson had piled up quite the list of leg injuries. And the 11-game sample in the 2020-21 season, plus playoffs, wasn’t exactly screaming All-NBA guy.

So, in full context, Memphis signed Jackson to a very fair, and smartly structured, contract at the time. And now it could come back to bite them.

Whenever a player signs a less-than-max deal, while having loads of potential, we all get excited as cap analysts and fans. If that contract is declining, it becomes a full-blown celebration. It’s time to re-think that, at least a bit.

Under the current CBA, the NBA has made veteran extensions more lucrative than ever. Instead of being limited to a 120% raise over the final-season salary, teams can bump a player up by 140%. That’s better, but it’s still not enough in a lot of cases.

Let’s use Jackson as an example. He’s extension-eligible this summer. Because he’ll have one year left on his deal, Jackson can add four new years to his contract. Here’s what Jackson’s new deal could look like:

• 2025-26: $23,413,395 (final season of current deal)
• 2026-27: $32,778,753 (first season of extension)
• 2027-28: $35,401,053
• 2028-29: $38,023,353
• 2029-30: $40,645,653
• Total extension: four years, $146,848,812

That’s a full 140% bump for Jackson in the first year of his extension, plus 8% raises on the subsequent years.

That probably looks pretty good, but again, we need to frame this with some context.

Here’s the percentage of the cap that each of the above extension years would reflect:

• 2026-27: 19%
• 2027-28: 19%
• 2028-29: 18%
• 2029-30: 18%

This projects the cap to continue to grow at the maximum allowable 10% per year throughout the life of Jackson’s potential veteran extension.

That’s well below the 30% of the cap maximum Jackson could sign for if he delayed signing a new deal until he was an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2026. That deal would look like this:

• 2026-27: $51,033,600 (30% of projected $170,112,000 cap)
• 2027-28: $55,116,288
• 2028-29: $59,198,976
• 2029-30: $62,281,664
• 2030-31: $67,364,352
• Total: five years, $295,994,880

That’s full five-year deal using Jackson’s Bird Rights that starts at his max of 30% of the cap with 8% raises.

To be fair, we’ll eliminate the fifth year, just to do a four-year to four-year comparison of the veteran extension against the new contract:

• Veteran Extension: four years, $146,848,812
• New Contract: four years, $228,630,528

Jackson could be leaving nearly $82 million on the table by signing a veteran extension this summer, as opposed to waiting to sign a new deal as a free agent in the summer of 2026.

This is why signing a player to an under-market extension, combined with the declining contract can come back to bite a team. If the player breaks out, then he’s not really extendable. And, boy, has Jackson ever broken out.

Last season, Jackson was a bright spot in an injury-ravaged season for the Grizzlies. He played most of the season, only really missing games when there was little point to him playing. Playing with a lot of players on two-way and 10 Day deals (including several on Hardship contracts), Jackson managed to put together a good season. The lack of help led to some inefficiency, but the on-ball playmaker reps helped Jackson really round out his game.

This year, Jackson has built on that in a great way. As of this writing, He’s scoring a career-high 22.8 points per game on 50/35/78 shooting splits. Jackson is also grabbing 6.4 rebounds per game and handing out 2.1 assists per night.

But it’s on the defensive end where Jackson shines brightest.

Jackson is averaging 1.7 blocks and 1.5 steals per game. He’s keyed the Grizzlies fifth-ranked defense, as almost everything Memphis does is built around Jackson’s ability on that end of the floor. Jackson regularly defends 1-5, excelling on the perimeter and around the rim equally. He’s absolutely a contender to win Defensive Player of the Year.

It’s that production on defense, along with the improved offense, that might give the Grizzlies the key to paying Jackson without him ever reaching unrestricted free agency.

Even though NBA teams are no longer really spending a year or two clearing cap space to make a run at free agents, that path in roster building isn’t completely dead. It’s simply become less-used because so many players sign extensions now. However, as we covered above, a standard veteran extension isn’t going to get it done for Jaren Jackson Jr.

But a Designated Veteran Player Extension might. And that’s why the Grizzlies need to be rooting for Jackson to collect some accolades for this season.

If Jackson makes All-NBA this season or wins Defensive Player of the Year, he’d become eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Player Extension (DVPE), or so-called Super Max, this offseason. Here’s what the full DPVE would look like:

• 2026-27: $59,539,200 (35% of projected $170,112,000 cap)
• 2027-28: $64,302,336
• 2028-29: $69,065,472
• 2029-30: $73,828,608
• 2030-31: $78,591,744
• Total: five years, $345,327,360

That’s the 35% of the cap max with 8% raises each season. That’s the maximum a player qualifies for by reaching All-NBA status, winning Defensive Player of the Year or winning MVP.

For comparison’s sake, that’s about $49.3 million over the 30% max Jackson could get as an unrestricted free agent in 2026. It’s nearly $120 million more in the four-year-to-four-year comp to the standard veteran extension.

Now, is Jaren Jackson Jr. a full 35% of the cap max guy? Probably not, especially not for the Grizzlies.

Memphis is a small market team and they already have Ja Morant on a max extension and Desmond Bane on a near-max deal. Under the new CBA, building a team around three max players is really, really hard. And Memphis has never been a team that has dipped deep into the luxury tax.

More simply put: It’s not likely Jackson will get the full super max.

But here’s the thing: Making All-NBA or winning Defensive Player of the Year to still be a huge win for Jackson and the Grizzlies, even without the full super max.

The only ways for Memphis to pay Jackson more than he can get in a standard veteran extension are to let him hit unrestricted free agency in 2026. That’s risky. He’s good enough, and young enough, that whatever cap space teams are out there (there will be a few in the 2026 offseason) would make a run at Jackson with a full max offer. They couldn’t beat the Grizzlies deal, because those teams would be limited to offering a four-year deal with 5% raises, but it’s still a risk. No one wants their players in free agency, if they can avoid it.

The other way to pay Jackson more than the standard veteran extension is if he qualifies for the Designated Veteran Player Extension. Yes, that full super max is more than what Memphis should give Jackson. The good news? They don’t have to give him the full 35% of the cap max!

If Jackson qualifies for the DVPE, Memphis can give him a five-year deal but it only has to start at the 30% of the cap figure. The other key: It would free up Memphis to sign Jackson to this bigger, longer extension this summer. That’s huge for keeping Jackson out of free agency in 2026.

Jackson is definitely going to get a 30% of the cap max, whether it’s from the Grizzlies or another team. If he makes All-NBA or wins Defensive Player of the Year, Memphis can get that done as soon as July.

We also have a recent example of a defensive-minded big man getting extended in exactly this fashion.

When Rudy Gobert signed his last extension with the Utah Jazz in 2020 (since played out and replaced by his current extension with the Minnesota Timberwolves), he could have signed a 35% of the cap DVPE deal. But Gobert and the Jazz split the difference. Jackson and the Grizzlies could do something similar. A reasonable compromise for both sides is to probably start the extension at the 30% of the cap amount (or maybe a bit more), but with a player option on the fifth season.

That would get Jackson paid, plus give him a five-year deal, which he can only get from Memphis in free agency or on a Designated Veteran Player Extension. And, crucially, it would give Jackson the ability to get into free agency in 2030 ahead of his age-30 season. That’s definitely young enough to cash in on one more big contract, from Memphis or elsewhere.

NBA teams publicly want their players to garner accolades like MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or All-NBA. They campaign for it openly every season. That means that player had a great season, and those awards are often tied to team success as well, which means the team was likely pretty good too.

Behind closed doors, when those accolades impact the player’s ability to get paid significantly more, teams are often less enthusiastic. It can cause stress on the cap sheet in a way that might not have been planned for, especially if the player reached those heights unexpectedly. That’s even more prevalent in this new CBA world of hard caps, aprons and the restrictions that come with them.

In the case of Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Memphis Grizzlies, his breakout season is the best of both worlds. Jackson gets his accolades and the love for his play and the Grizzlies benefit by being a very good team this season. And, of course, it will allow Memphis to give Jackson a big contract early without risking one of their best players hitting unrestricted free agency. That’s a win-win scenario in a spot that’s often 50-50 at best.

January 7 isn’t a well-known date on the NBA calendar, but it should be. Many know that on January 10, all NBA contracts become fully guaranteed. What isn’t as well-known is that in order for a team to not have a fully guaranteed deal land on their books for the rest of the season, they have to make a decision by January 7.

Teams must waive players on partial/non-guaranteed deals by January 7 in order for them to clear waivers before January 10. (The waiver period is 48 hours). Thus, while January 10 is the technical date that all contracts become fully guaranteed, January 7 is the functional deadline.

There are 23 players in limbo before the January 7 deadline. Here are the decisions NBA teams must make. (All salary amounts reflect the player’s fully guaranteed cap hit.)

Atlanta Hawks

No guarantee decisions

Boston Celtics

No guarantee decisions

Brooklyn Nets

Keon Johnson - $2,162,606

Johnson is going to stick in Brooklyn. He’s become a starter and he’s young enough to be part of whatever the Nets are building next. Johnson is the kind of diamond-in-the-rough that Sean Marks had success with during his first rebuild.

Jalen Wilson - $1,891,857

Wilson is also going be with the Nets beyond the guarantee deadline. He’s another rotation guy, and sometimes-starter for Jordi Fernandez. Wilson isn’t going anywhere.

Charlotte Hornets

Taj Gibson - $2,087,519

If the Hornets feel they need an open roster spot, they could cut Gibson loose. Charlotte is also more than $10 million under the tax. That means the Hornets could always waive Gibson down the line if they need a roster spot without creating a tax issue. Bet on the veteran locker room leader sticking around in Charlotte.

Chicago Bulls

Talen Horton-Tucker - $2,087,519

Horton-Tucker is a regular in Billy Donovan’s rotation. The Bulls are also expected to be active at the trade deadline. So, despite an overstuffed backcourt rotation, Horton-Tucker will stay in Chicago.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Sam Merrill - $2,164,993

Merrill may not stick as a rotation player as the Cavs get healthy, but he’s not going anywhere either. Cleveland has had injury issues on the wing, so Merrill stays as a quality depth player for a title contender.

Craig Porter Jr. - $1,891,857

Porter is already $1 million guaranteed, so that alone probably keeps him on the Cleveland roster. But he’s also become a solid third point guard, and the Cavaliers have him for two more full seasons beyond this one. Porter isn’t going anywhere.

Tristan Thompson - $2,087,519

Thompson is a respected locker room voice. He’s also proven to be a decent depth player, when other bigs are out. Thompson will see his deal guaranteed.

Dallas Mavericks

Markieff Morris - $2,087,519

The Mavericks have been active in trade talks, but most trade configurations see Dallas giving up more players than they bring back. Morris is locker room leader for Jason Kidd, so he’s likely to stick around Dallas for the season.

Denver Nuggets

No guarantee decisions

Detroit Pistons

No guarantee decisions

Golden State Warriors

Gui Santos - $1,891,857

The Warriors are so tight around their first apron hard cap, that they have to keep Santos. Replacing him with a non-drafted player would cause Golden State to see a higher than desirable tax hit, which causes further hard cap issues. Santos will stay beyond the guarantee deadline.

Lindy Waters III - $2,196,970

Waters is a rotation regular for Steve Kerr. He’s not going anywhere. As stated above, it would be hard for the Warriors to find any kind of replacement if they did cut Waters loose.

Houston Rockets

No guarantee decisions

Indiana Pacers

James Johnson - $2,087,519

Last season, Indiana cut Johnson loose, then brought him back after making other roster moves. Something similar could occur this season. One other thing to keep in mind: The Pacers are around $800,000 below the luxury tax. They won’t be paying the tax, so Johnson could be waived and re-signed later to create more space under the tax.

James Wiseman - $2,237,691

Wiseman is out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. This one is probably about needing a roster spot. If the Pacers need one, Wiseman might be cut loose. Otherwise, he’ll keep working on coming back to be a part of Indiana’s rotation next season.

LA Clippers

No guarantee decisions

Los Angeles Lakers

No guarantee decisions

Memphis Grizzlies

No guarantee decisions

Miami Heat

No guarantee decisions

Milwaukee Bucks

Andre Jackson Jr. - $1,891,857

Jackson is a starter for the Bucks and the team’s best perimeter defender. He’s also got two more seasons on his deal beyond this one. He’s on one of the most team-friendly contracts in the league in terms of cost vs production. Jackson isn’t going anywhere. 

Minnesota Timberwolves

No guarantee decisions

New Orleans Pelicans

Zion Williamson - $36,725,670

Williamson’s deal is half-guaranteed for almost $18.4 million. That alone means he’s not getting waived. But the talent is still there. The Pelicans aren’t ready to make this move now. After next season, if Williamson keeps missing time with injuries, we could be looking at a different story. We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.

New York Knicks

Ariel Hukporti - $1,064,049

After all the machinations to get to the minimum roster requirements following the Karl-Anthony Towns trade, the Knicks signed Hukporti to a standard deal. Tight margins under their first apron hard cap, combined with Hukporti’s upside, means he’s not going anywhere.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Branden Carlson - $990,895

Carlson is on the roster bubble in Oklahoma City. The Thunder will likely prioritize the flexibility of having an open roster spot over keeping Carlson. Keep an eye on Oklahoma City bringing him back into the fold down the line, if the opportunity arises.

Jaylin Williams - $2,019,699

Williams is healthy now and providing frontcourt depth for the Thunder. He’s not going anywhere. The real story to watch here is if Oklahoma City declines their 2025-26 team option to make Williams a restricted free agent this summer. That would allow the Thunder to control Williams’ free agency, as they’d like to retain him long-term.

Orlando Magic

No guarantee decisions

Philadelphia 76ers

Ricky Council IV - $1,891,857

Council gives Nick Nurse wing depth on a team-friendly deal. Given Philadelphia is already over the tax, they need players like Council to provide minutes on minimum-type deals. Council will see his deal guaranteed.

Phoenix Suns

No guarantee decisions

Portland Trail Blazers

Dalano Banton - $2,196,970

Banton has been a rotation regular for Chauncey Billups since arriving at last season’s trade deadline. He’ll have his deal guaranteed for the rest of the season. This summer, we’ll get a sense of how much Portland values Banton’s ability to provide perimeter scoring.

Sacramento Kings

Jae Crowder - $1,655,619

Crowder was added earlier this season to give the Kings additional forward depth. He hasn’t played very much however, and Sacramento interim head coach Doug Christie doesn’t seem to have room for Crowder in his rotation. There’s a 50-50 chance Crowder is waived for roster flexibility for the Kings approaching the trade deadline.

Doug McDermott - $2,087,519

McDermott has been in and out of the Kings rotation. He can still shoot, but doesn’t offer a whole lot else. Much like Crowder, Sacramento could waive McDermott for flexibility with their roster and to create a bit more wiggle room under the luxury tax line.

Orlando Robinson - $2,087,519

Robinson is in the same spot as Crowder and McDermott. He doesn’t have a regular role, and the Kings may want roster flexibility and more space under the tax line. The best guess here is that one of these three veterans is cut loose before the guarantee deadline.

San Antonio Spurs

No guarantee decisions

Toronto Raptors

Bruno Fernando - $2,087,519

Fernando hasn’t been a rotation player for the rebuilding Raptors. Now that their frontcourt is healthy, Toronto is likely to move on before Fernando’s deal guarantees. That will allow the Raptors to cycle through some players to see if someone proves to be a long-term fit for the roster.

Utah Jazz

No guarantee decisions

Washington Wizards

No guarantee decisions

NBA decision-makers recently spent a week in Orlando for the 2024 G League Showcase. The Westchester Knicks took home the Showcase Cup for the second straight season, but the main reason for the event was for NBA front office executives to mingle together. It’s considered the cousin to Major League Baseball’s Winter Meetings, as a space where NBA trade talks take off in full. This season, teams got a jump on the trade process, as we’ve already seen three December deals, including two before the Showcase even took place.

The other purpose of the event is for G League players to show out for NBA front office personnel. Many rostered players have stood out during the first part of the G League season. This includes players on standard contracts and players signed to two-way deals. But it’s the other guys, the free agents, who need the Showcase to earn an NBA callup.

These callups could occur via a 10-day contract. Teams are allowed to sign players to 10-day deals starting on January 5. The other option is further shuffling of two-way contracts.

As of this writing, 11 teams have an open standard roster spot:

• Boston Celtics
• Cleveland Cavaliers
• Detroit Pistons
• Golden State Warriors
• Houston Rockets
• Miami Heat
• Minnesota Timberwolves
• New Orleans Pelicans
• New York Knicks
• Philadelphia 76ers
• Phoenix Suns

In addition, there are two teams with open two-way spots:

• Golden State Warriors
• Orlando Magic

Other roster spots will open up as teams make trades (the trade deadline is February 8) or if teams waive players (the last day to waive players before contracts guarantee is January 7).

The following players have stood out, both in the early part of the G League season and at the Showcase event in Orlando. Others have been mentioned regularly by NBA scouts and front office executives as players who might garner a callup from the G League.

This time, we’re going to split the list up a bit differently. We’re going to present some NBA veterans playing in the G League that that are familiar names. Then we’ll get into the deeper names to know, before finishing with a bit of a bonus list of guys outside of the NBA orbit right now.

(Note: This list is presented in no particular order. It is not a ranking of any kind!)

All stats as of January 1, 2024 and provided by RealGM’s G League Database

NBA Veterans in the G League

Guards

Jaylen Nowell – Capital City Go-Go, SG, 6’4’’, 25 years old

Nowell has bounced on and off NBA rosters for the past couple of seasons. He’s certainly too good of a player to stay in the G League, but he hasn’t been able to find an NBA home either. This season, Nowell is averaging 26.4 points on robust 56/51/88 shooting splits. When a team needs some scoring punch, they’d do well to look in Nowell’s direction.

Trey Burke – Mexico City Capitanes, PG, 6’0’’, 32 years old

Yep, that Trey Burke! He’s still going and he’s playing really well for the G League’s only unaffiliated team. Burke is putting up 20.3 points and 5.3 assists per game. He’s also shooting fairly well with 46/39/87 splits. We’ve seen NBA teams go with veterans when they need a point guard in a pinch. That could be Burke’s path back to the NBA.

Wings

Nassir Little – Sioux Falls Skyforce, SG/SF, 6’6’’, 24 years old

Little is an NBA player. There should be no question about that. He’s already had productive NBA years and he’s still only 24 years old. What’s really encouraging is that instead of sulking about not being in the NBA, Little has gone to one of the G League’s furthest-flung outposts and just put in work. He’s been one of the best all-around players in the G League this year. He’ll be back on an NBA roster soon, and probably as more than just a 10 Day callup.

Juan Toscano-Anderson – Mexico City Capitanes, SF/SG, 6’6’’, 31 years old

It’s been a few years since Toscano-Anderson emerged as a rotation find for the Golden State Warriors. All of that shine is off, but he’s still a tough, defensive-minded wing. If Toscano-Anderson shot it more consistently, he’d probably be on an NBA team already. But there’s room for him if a team needs a guy who can hold his own defending 1-4.

Forwards

Eugene Omoruyi – Raptors 905, SF, 6’6’’, 27 years old

Omoruyi has played himself into a callup before. He’s right on the fringe of being on an NBA roster. This season, he’s refocused a bit as more of a finisher and defender. That focus has Omoruyi hitting 59.2% from the floor, while grabbing 7.9 rebounds. He’s the kind of athlete that teams like, because Omoruyi can be pretty plug-and-play in a pinch.

T.J. Warren – Westchester Knicks, SF/PF, 6’8’’, 31 years old

Warren is way overqualified for the G League. He’s scoring with relative ease at the minor league level. The good news is that he looks healthy. That’s what has kept Warren off NBA rosters the last few seasons. When a team needs a forward who can score, they’d do well to give Warren a look.

Bigs

Moses Brown – Westchester Knicks, C, 7’2’’’, 25 years old

Brown already spent part of the season on the Indiana Pacers roster. He’s clearly on the verge of being in the NBA again. In the G League, he’s one of the best rebounders and rim protectors in the league. Brown uses his size to dominate on the interior. That’s come together in flashes in the NBA. Look for an NBA team to bet on Brown being the classic late-bloomer center with another shot in the big league.

G Leaguers to know

Guards

Jalen Crutcher – Birmingham Squadron, PG, 6’1’’, 25 years old

Crutcher has seen NBA time before, but he’s mostly been in the G League. That seems on the verge of changing. Crutcher is an improved playmaker, as he’s now regularly breaking down defenses to set up his teammates. He’s also become a high-volume three-point shooter, as he’s hitting 38% on 9.2 three-point attempts per game. Crutcher can be an NBA-caliber backup point guard, when he gets his chance.

Markquis Nowell – Rio Grande Valley Vipers, PG, 5’7’’, 25 years old

Nowell is someone whose name came up a lot in talks with NBA front office personnel. It was usually qualified with “if he was bigger” and/or “if he just shot better”. Nowell is tiny and he’s struggled to finish inside of the arc. But he’s a top-tier playmaker and an on-ball pest of the highest order. Nowell has even blocked 17 shots in 19 games too. He might not get a shot, because of his size and his lack of finishing, but Nowell is getting more attention game by game.

Ethan Thompson – Osceola Magic, SG, 6’5’’, 25 years old

Thompson is one of the best and most efficient scorers in the G League. He’s gotten there by becoming a volume shooter, as he’s knocked down 41.9% of his 8.6 three-point attempts per game. This season, Thompson is playing more defense too. Look for a potential late-season callup when a team needs someone who can put the ball in the hoop.

Jaden Shackelford – Valley Suns, SG, 6’3’’, 23 years old

If Shackelford was a bit bigger, he’d probably already be on an NBA roster. His lack of size works against him defensively. Offensively, Shackelford has it all. He’s got a quick release and can really score. He’s not much of a playmaker, which hurt him being the size of a combo guard. Think old-school bench scoring guard and you’ve got what Shackelford can bring to an NBA team.

Wings

Jarrett Culver – Osceola Magic, SG/SF, 6’6’’, 25 years old

Culver has a little bit of Kris Dunn in him. Dunn went to the G League, reestablished himself and fought his way back to the NBA. Culver could be next. He’s still not much of a shooter, but Culver has played really well on defense and can do a little bit of everything on offense, including running the show. His NBA story hasn’t been fully written yet.

Paul Watson – Valley Suns, SG/SF, 6’6’’, 30 years old

We’re getting close to “now or never” time for Watson, but the time could be now. He’s a shooter with size now, as opposed to trying to do everything on offense. Watson focusing on being a 3&D guy has him playing the best ball of his long G League career. He could have one more run at the NBA in him.

Buddy Boeheim – Oklahoma City Blue, SG/SF, 6’5’’, 25 years old

Boeheim is a one-skill guy, but that one skill is pretty good. Boeheim is hitting 42.4% on a whopping 10.1 three-point attempts per game. Given how much NBA teams value shooting, that has him getting another look from the league. Sometimes being really good at the one thing you can do pays off, and that seems to be the case for Boeheim.

Forwards

Reggie Perry – Greensboro Swarm, PF, 6’8’’, 24 years old

Perry is undersized center in a power forward’s body. He attacks the glass like a big man, and that’s got him on the NBA radar. Perry is also a rugged defender with some switchability. Most exciting? He’s hit 40.5% from deep, albeit on a small sample size. Perry is a guy to keep an eye on for sure.

Maozinha Pereira – Memphis Hustle, PF, 6’8’’, 24 years old

Pereira got a callup with the Grizzlies last season and held his own in the NBA. That sent him back to the G League with a mission: Rounding out his offensive game. Periera is relentless worker on defense and on the boards. However, without a reliable jumper, his lack of size will keep him from making it in the NBA. This year in the G League, Pereira is taking more jumpers than ever. It’s a major work in progress, but the form looks good. Periera will be back in the NBA. Even more: Periera will eventually be an NBA rotation guy too.

Warith Alatishe – Texas Legends, SF/PF, 6’7’’, 24 years old

None of the raw numbers really jump out at you on Alatishe’s stat sheet. But you watch him play and he’s just everywhere. He’s always doing stuff. Alatishe is a constant blur of motion and energy, and he plays REALLY hard too. Guys like that tend to find their way onto an NBA roster eventually.

Cam Martin – Motor City Cruise, PF, 6’9’’, 26 years old

Martin looks like a potential stretch big for an NBA team. He’s rediscovered the shot, which made him a prospect to watch way back in 2021 at Missouri Southern State in Division 2. Martin can also get on the glass and is a solid ball-mover and screener too. There’s something here.

Bigs

Ibou Badji – Wisconsin Herd, C, 7’0’’, 22 years old

At some point a guy goes from “raw prospect” to a guy who just never put it together. Badji is still in the former camp for at least one more year. A year on a two-way deal with Portland didn’t do a whole lot for him, but there’s a raw skillset with Badji that is so enticing. He’s got to get stronger and he needs to learn how to play, but the athleticism at his size will keep getting Badji NBA looks.

Jamarion Sharp – Texas Legends, C, 7’5’’, 23 years old

Sharp is an absolutely massive human being. His collegiate career was weird, but Sharp is putting things together in the G League. As one would hope for a 7-foot-5 center, he’s an outstanding shot-blocker and a good rebounder. What’s exciting is that Sharp is showing off improved touch around the basket. He needs work, but there’s talent here. Could be a good two-way candidate for a team that develops big men.

Non-G League Veterans to Watch

Lonnie Walker IV – Zalgiris (Lithuania), SG, 6’4’’, 26 years old

Walker is a known quantity at this point. He can score and shoot. He doesn’t do a lot else, but Walker does those things well enough that teams like him. With Zalgiris, Walker has looked good. He’s drawing lots of NBA interest and wouldn’t be a surprise to see him land with a team before the season ends.

Markelle Fultz – Free Agent, PG, 6’4’’, 26 years old

Fultz has been working through a reported knee issue. That’s kept him from signing a deal to this point. When healthy, he’s expected to draw interest from teams looking for an on-ball playmaker. Fultz might have to play on a 10 Day contract or two to prove himself healthy, but a full NBA deal will come eventually for him.

Dennis Smith Jr. – Free Agent, PG, 6’3’’, 27 years old

Smith put together a solid season for the Brooklyn Nets last year. Teams love his defense, but it’s the lack of reliable jumper that has him still looking for an NBA spot. Smith signed with the G League, but didn’t land where he wanted, so he hasn’t played a game yet. He’ll pop up when a team has a need for some on-ball defense in their backcourt.

Oshae Brissett – Free Agent, PF/SF, 6’7’’, 26 years old

Brissett was a beloved member of the Boston Celtics locker room last season. He’s had overseas offers, but has held off while hoping for another NBA job. Brissett is likely to catch on when a team needs a forward. He’s reportedly stayed in great shape and looks good according to those who have seen him play.

Robert Covington – Free Agent, PF, 6’7’’, 34 years old

Covington played in a couple of games for Team USA in AmeriCup Qualifiers in November. He looked good enough that a handful of NBA teams put him on their lists to keep an eye on. If Covington is willing to go the 10 Day route, don’t be surprised if a team with a need for some frontcourt defense and shooting gives him a look.

After nearly two years of transaction inaction, the Los Angeles Lakers hooked up with a familiar trade partner in a deal with the Brooklyn Nets. The Lakers got some frontcourt depth, while the Nets gained even more financial flexibility for the summer of 2025.

Here are the particulars:

Los Angeles Lakers acquire: Dorian Finney-Smith, Shake Milton

Brooklyn Nets acquire: D’Angelo Russell, Maxwell Lewis, three Lakers second-round picks in 2027 (if Lakers first-round pick falls 5-30), 2030 and 2031

Let’s dive in!

Los Angeles Lakers

Incoming salary: $17.8 million in 2024-25

• Dorian Finney-Smith (PF/SF, two years, $30.3 million), Shake Milton (PG, three years, $9.2 million (final two seasons non-guaranteed))

Outgoing salary: $20.6 million in 2024-25

• D’Angelo Russell (PG/SG, one year, $18.7 million), Maxwell Lewis (SF, three years, $6.5 million (final two seasons partially and non-guaranteed))

With Jarred Vanderbilt’s and Christian Wood’s returns to play continuing to be uncertain, along with LeBron James managing a foot issue, the Los Angeles Lakers needed frontcourt depth. They got it in the form of Dorian Finney-Smith.

Finney-Smith is no longer the three/four wing stopper he once was, but he’s still an upgrade over the Lakers current bigger perimeter defenders. Finney-Smith has transitioned into being more of a four/small-ball five. And that has even more value for Los Angeles, who doesn’t have much behind Anthony Davis at the moment.

The Lakers will also benefit from Finney-Smith’s shooting. Normally a good shooter from the behind the arc, the veteran forward has been outstanding this season. Finney-Smith is at a career-best 43.5% on three-pointers this season. That’s a boon for JJ Redick, whose offense can often go lacking from the outside.

Giving up Russell leaves Los Angeles a bit thin in the backcourt. However, the veteran guard had seen his role reduced in recent weeks after being moved to the bench. Shake Milton will slot into a three-guard rotation with Austin Reaves and Gabe Vincent. Dalton Knecht will also likely figure more into the backcourt rotation, as frontcourt minutes will be harder to come by with Finney-Smith in the fold.

After an uptick in playing time recently, Milton has shown he can still be a rotation guard. He’s more of a scoring threat than a playmaker, but the Lakers have plenty of passing in the units where Milton may play. They should be able to find a use for his scoring and shooting ability.

Financially, this move is also a win for the Lakers. They go from just $30,001 under the second apron to about $3.5 million under the second apron. That flexibility is huge for Rob Pelinka, as he could still look to make more moves down the line.

Long-term, the Lakers potentially take on $15.4 million on next season’s books, assuming Finney-Smith picks up his player option. It’s also possible that the veteran forward could opt out and re-sign with the Lakers for less money next season, but tacking on a couple of additional seasons.

In terms of draft picks, the Lakers had five available second-rounders to trade and gave up three of them in this deal. They still have their own second-round pick, as well as the Clippers second-round in 2025 to offer in a deal. (Note on the 2027 second-round pick the Lakers are sending the Nets: That pick will only convey if the Lakers send their first-round pick to the Utah Jazz that season. That pick is top-four protected.)

This may not have been the star trade that many Los Angeles Lakers fans were hoping for. But this is a smart move by Rob Pelinka. Dorian Finney-Smith will help the Lakers a lot in their injury-depleted frontcourt. And freeing up additional flexibility for other potential moves can’t go overlooked either.

Brooklyn Nets

Incoming salary: $20.6 million in 2024-25

• D’Angelo Russell (PG/SG, one year, $18.7 million), Maxwell Lewis (SF, three years, $6.5 million (final two seasons partially and non-guaranteed))

Outgoing salary: $17.8 million in 2024-25

• Dorian Finney-Smith (PF/SF, two years, $30.3 million), Shake Milton (PG, three years, $9.2 million (final two seasons non-guaranteed))

The Brooklyn Nets are continuing to reshape their roster on the fly this season. A trade of Dorian Finney-Smith always seemed likely, especially so after Dennis Schroder was dealt earlier this month. The Nets are now rebalanced a bit, as they figure out what they want the rest of this season to be.

After trading Schroder, Brooklyn was extremely thin in the backcourt, especially at point guard. D’Angelo Russell now returns to the Nets, where he had the best years of his NBA career so far.

Expect Russell to step into the starting lineup, as he’ll share the ballhandling duties with Ben Simmons. The duo once formed a very effective partnership at Montverde Academy in high school and now reunite in the NBA. Russell’s ability to create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates will help a Nets offense that floundered after Schroder was traded.

Beyond that, expect Sean Marks to see if the opportunity to move Russell in a subsequent deal comes up. Russell is on an expiring contract, and he doesn’t have a real place on a rebuilding team. If no deal comes, look for Russell to play out the season with the Nets, as he attempts to rebuild his value.

A buyout for Russell is possible, but doesn’t seem overly likely. Because his $18.7 million salary is larger than the Non-Taxpayer MLE, Russell would be ineligible to sign with a team that is over the apron following a buyout. That eliminates teams like the Phoenix Suns, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets from being spots for Russell after a buyout.

Maxwell Lewis is the kind of flyer that has paid off for Marks in the past. Lewis came into the 2023 NBA Draft as a potential wing shooter, with some defensive upside. He’s barely played in the NBA over two seasons, but has logged a decent amount of G League time. Last season, Lewis showed some 3&D potential with the South Bay Lakers. This year, his shooting has dropped off, but Lewis has shown a bit more on-ball playmaking ability. The Nets can toss him some minutes the rest of this season and see what they have, before making a decision on his contract for next season.

Financially, this move frees up even more potential cap space for the Nets in the summer of 2025. Brooklyn was already at a league-high $40.7 million in projected space. Now, Sean Marks has about $54.7 million to use this summer. That’s enough for a max signing, should the Nets want to move in that direction. Most importantly? It’s enough space to go in almost any direction for Brooklyn.

Finally, Marks added another three picks to his stash. The Nets now have 15 first-round picks and 16 second-round picks over the next seven drafts. That’s huge for Brooklyn, as that kind of capital will put them in the mix for just about any player who become available via trade.

The Brooklyn Nets aren’t done yet, at least it doesn’t feel like it. Sean Marks probably has another deal or two or in him before we get to the trade deadline. He’s got the ability to take this team in a lot of directions, as he sets up for what looks like a very important summer in Brooklyn.

The first official trade of the 2024-25 NBA trade season wasn’t a big one, but it was a rare December 15th deal. The Indiana Pacers filled a need in their frontcourt, while the Miami Heat created a little more flexibility around the second apron.

Here are the particulars:

Indiana Pacers acquire: Thomas Bryant

Miami Heat acquire: Right to swap 2031 second-round picks with Indiana

Let’s dive in!

Indiana Pacers

Incoming salary: $2.1 million in 2024-25

• Thomas Bryant (C, one year, $2.1 million)

Outgoing salary: None

Indiana looked like they had really good depth behind Myles Turner to open the season. Isaiah Jackson has proven to be a solid backup, while James Wiseman was signed as a flyer for additional depth. Unfortunately, within about a week of each other, both Jackson and Wiseman suffered torn Achilles’ tendons. That has both backup centers sidelined for the season.

Now, the Pacers are turning to veteran Thomas Bryant to fill some backup minutes. It’s a homecoming for Bryant, who played his college ball at Indiana University.

Bryant hasn’t played much over the last two seasons, with 48 total appearances for the Miami Heat. In previous stops with the Los Angeles Lakers (twice), the Washington Wizards and Denver Nuggets, Bryant has proven to be a valuable offensive big. The 6-foot-10 center can step out and shoot it some, while being a solid finisher inside. Bryant has also been a dependable rebounder throughout his career.

One quirk of this deal: Because Bryant was traded while on a one-year deal, he’ll lose his Early Bird rights in this trade. When a player is traded while on a one-year deal, they lose their Bird or Early Bird rights. This is why those players can qualify for an implied no-trade clause, so that they don’t unilaterally lose those free agent rights if they’re traded. In Bryant’s case, he waived his right to block a trade. And, given he’s veteran minimum player, this wasn’t all that likely to matter anyway.

As far as the pick goes, it’s an extremely minor cost for the Pacers to get a little bit of frontcourt depth. If Bryant can help Indiana stabilize things behind Turner, a second-round swap will be well worth it.

Miami Heat

Incoming salary: None

Outgoing salary: $2.1 million in 2024-25

• Thomas Bryant (C, one year, $2.1 million)

Bryant wasn’t in the Heat rotation. Even when Miami was down bodies in their frontcourt behind Bam Adebayo, Erik Spoelstra wasn’t going to Bryant. That made him a very tradable player.

For the Heat, this trade was all about creating a more flexibility under the second apron. Miami isn’t hard-capped at the second apron, but they were closer to that marker than they really wanted to be. Before this trade, the Heat had about $1.6 million in space under the second apron. Now, the Heat have more than $3.7 million in wiggle room under the second apron.

Given Miami has been involved in trade rumors involving Jimmy Butler, who carries a $48.8 million salary, the Heat would likely be taking back quite of bit of salary in a trade. Now, it’s fair to note that Miami may not make a trade involving Butler at all. But if they do, they’ll bring back a good amount of salary in return.

The important thing: In a Butler trade or another deal, the Heat now have more clearance under the apron than they had before getting off Bryant’s salary.

One last note: the Heat are now down to 13 players signed to standard contracts. Miami will have 14 days to get back into roster compliance by signing a 14th player to a standard deal. The Heat can also go up to 28 total days with less than 14 players on standard deals. So, they can game the system a bit by signing and waiving a player, until they max out their 28 total days.

The Golden State Warriors and the Brooklyn Nets got the 2024-25 trade season off to a running start with a rare December 15th deal. Both sides accomplished goals in the first major deal of the season.

Here are the particulars:

Golden State Warriors acquire: Dennis Schroder, 2025 Heat second-round pick (if 38-59)

Brooklyn Nets acquire: De’Anthony Melton, Reece Beekman, 2026 Hawks second-round pick, 2028 Hawks second-round pick, 2029 Warriors second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Golden State Warriors

Incoming salary: $13.0 million in 2024-25

• Dennis Schroder (PG, one year, $13.0 million)

Outgoing salary: $12.8 million in 2024-25

• De’Anthony Melton (PG/SG, one year, $12.8 million)

The Warriors needed more on-ball creation ability. When Stephen Curry sits, everything falls to Draymond Green or inexperienced playmakers to make things happen for the Golden State offense. Adding Schroder should fix that.

Reports are that the Warriors are considering starting Schroder alongside Curry in the backcourt. That’s fine, but the real value of adding Schroder will come in the non-Curry minutes. Now, Steve Kerr can confidently put the ball in a playmaker’s hands for all 48 minutes. That’s should be huge for helping to open up the game for other players. That includes Brandin Podziemski, who has really struggled when tasked with running the offense in his second season.

Salary-wise, this doesn’t change much for Golden State. They went from just over $530,000 from their first-apron hard cap to about $330,000 away from that marker. Both Schroder and Melton are on expiring deals, so there’s no long-term change either. One nice benefit with acquiring Schroder: He has Early Bird rights after this season. That could give the Warriors a decent leg up on re-signing him.

Golden State also gave up Reece Beekman in his deal. Beekman became part of the exclusive club of two-way players to get traded. The Warriors being so tight to the first-apron hard cap means they still can’t fill their 15th standard roster spot, but that has no bearing on filling their open two-way spot. Expect Golden State to sign a replacement for Beekman shortly.

The Warriors are a bit light on second-round picks after this deal. That made it important to get the protected Heat second-rounder in the trade. That’s at least something Golden State can offer up in a future deal.

Brooklyn Nets

Incoming salary: $12.8 million in 2024-25

• De’Anthony Melton (PG/SG, one year, $12.8 million)

Outgoing salary: $13.0 million in 2024-25

• Dennis Schroder (PG, one year, $13.0 million)

This trade was about two things for the Nets. First, they went plus-two in second-round picks. The two Hawks picks (2026 and 2028) and the Warriors pick (2029) are all far enough out that it’s impossible to know where they’ll land. If nothing else, Sean Marks has added to what is becoming a pretty impressive stash of future draft capital.

But mostly, this trade was about moving toward development, or pivoting toward ping pong balls, or straight-up tanking, if you will. The Nets didn’t get better in this trade. Dennis Schroder was arguably the Nets best player this season, especially when you factor in availability. De’Anthony Melton is out for the season. So, not only did Brooklyn not get better, they instead got significantly worse.

And that was the whole idea.

Entering play on December 15, the Nets had the ninth-worst record in the NBA. For a team that reacquired their own 2025 first-round pick ahead of the season, that’s not really where Brooklyn wants to be.

Here’s the good news: Brooklyn is only four losses behind the Jazz and Raptors to fall (jump?) into a top-three pick. Why is that the target range? The top three picks have the flattened odds in the draft lottery. In a loaded draft, the Nets want to have as high of a pick as possible. Getting up to the top-three group would give them the best chance at that.

By moving Schroder now, Marks may not have gotten the absolute most value for the veteran point guard as he may have down the line. It’s possible that by waiting, the Nets could have driven a bidding war for Schroder, especially if teams became desperate for backcourt help.

However, Marks made the right call to make a deal now, even if he might have gotten something a little better down the line. The Nets need to start losing, and start losing at a pretty good clip, right now if they’re going to maximize their lottery odds. By trading Schroder, Brooklyn becomes a worse team, which will increase the chances that they lose more games. Waiting nearly two months to make a deal might have come after a handful more victories than makes sense for the Nets.

On the court, Brooklyn is really light on ballhandling and playmaking. Ben Simmons will likely see increased on-ball reps. That could have a side effect of improving Simmons’ play and his confidence. Beyond Simmons, Shake Milton and Keon Johnson are the only healthy playmakers on the roster right now. Cam Thomas can do some ballhandling, but he’s a score-first guy and he’s working his way back from a hamstring injury.

The above is why the Nets acquired Reece Beekman in the deal. It’s rare for a two-way player to be traded, and even more rare for one to be traded to fill a need, but here we are. Beekman faced an uphill battled to find NBA minutes on a deep Warriors squad. With the Nets thin backcourt, Beekman could be a rotation player right away.

In nine G League games, Beekman has looked pretty solid. The 6-foot-3 point guard has averaged 18.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 2.8 steals per game. Beekman has also shot 51.5% from the field and 34.5% from behind the arc. As a four-year college starter, Beekman also comes in with more experience than your average rookie guard. Expect to see him getting some rotation minutes as the Nets sort out their backcourt mix.

Salary-wise, there’s no change for Brooklyn beyond this season. Schroder was on an expiring contract, as is Melton. Something to keep an eye on: The Nets can flip Melton in another trade, and by virtue of acquiring him prior to December 16, they can also aggregate Melton’s $12.8 million salary in a subsequent deal.

Sean Marks is just getting started. He’s got several other veteran players who could (and should!) be on the move before the trade deadline. That’ll mean some really ugly basketball in Brooklyn to close this season, but if the Nets land a top-five draft pick, it’ll all have been worth it.

While reports, and denials of some of those reports, are flying all over the place, one thing is clear: Jimmy Butler is no longer a lock to stay with the Miami Heat. After being seen as a perfect match of player and team for several years, it now looks like a Butler-Heat divorce is inevitable.

How did we get here?

It’s been bubbling for a bit now. Butler has been somewhat injury-prone during his run with the Heat. But he was always there when Miami needed him most, leading the team to NBA Finals runs in 2020 and 2023. That was true until Butler missed last season’s playoffs and the Heat were bounced in five mostly non-competitive games against the Boston Celtics.

Following that series loss, Butler said the Celtics would have been “at home” if he had played. Butler also said that if he was on the Philadelphia 76ers, they would have beaten the New York Knicks. Heat president Pat Riley didn’t want to hear it from his star player.

“For him to say that, I thought ‘Is that Jimmy trolling or is that Jimmy serious?’” Riley said in a postseason press conference. “If you're not on the court playing against Boston or on the court playing against the New York Knicks, you should keep your mouth shut and your criticism of those teams.”

Riley then challenged Butler to figure out what he wants to be for the Heat moving forward, including stating that his star player has to play more. But despite all of that, when pressed if he’d consider trading Butler, Riley kept it simple by saying, “No.”

Flashing forward a bit, Butler has wanted an extension from Miami. He’s recently said that money isn’t the most important thing, but Butler also isn’t likely to take any kind of massive team-friendly discount either. That leaves some room between Butler’s $52.4 million player option for 2025-26 and whatever his starting point would be in an extension.

However, the Heat haven’t been willing to budge much in extension talks. It doesn’t seem to be a case where Miami is lowballing Butler, as much as it seems like there just isn’t anything happen at all.

And that’s landed us here.

Earlier this week, reports broke that Butler would prefer to land with a contender if he’s traded. Two teams on his list, the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets, play in Butler’s native Texas. A third team is the Golden State Warriors, who are committed to making the most of whatever Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have left in them over the next few years.

On Wednesday, ESPN reported that the Phoenix Suns are another team that Butler would like to be traded too. That report was denied by Butler’s agent Bernie Lee in a series of social media posts, but that hasn’t kept speculation from running rampant over the day or so.

You have the history. Now, let’s dive into how a Butler trade could come together for each of his reportedly preferred destinations. This is the important part, because putting together a Butler trade isn’t an easy matter.

Let’s first understand Jimmy Butler’s contract. Here’s what it looks like:

• 2024-25: $48,798,677
• 2025-26: $52,413,394 (player option)
• Total: two years, $101,212,071

Next, let’s look at where the Miami Heat sit with the luxury tax and the first and second aprons:

• $13.9 million over the luxury tax
• $9.2 million over the first apron
• $1.6 million under the second apron

It’s also important to note that the Heat are not hard-capped at either the first or second apron. That means Miami can aggregate players in trades, provided the end result sees them staying under the second apron. However, because the Heat are well over the first apron, they can’t take back more salary in a deal than they send out, because that would trigger a first-apron hard cap. These factors are going to be crucial to remember as we piece together possible options.

Got all that? Good! Let’s dive in!

(Note: We’re presenting these mostly as straight-up two-team trades. There are scenarios where involving a third team can make a deal work, but we’re using a standard two-team framework to demonstrate the complexity in a Butler trade. Also: We’re only demonstrating the challenges of matching salary in a Butler deal. We’re not getting into player and draft picks values here.)

Phoenix Suns

We’re starting with the Phoenix Suns idea, because it’s the freshest rumor and simultaneously the most complex and the most simple one to tackle. Phoenix trading for Jimmy Butler is tricky because the Suns are so far over the second apron that they can’t even see it anymore ($31.5 million over). That means, Phoenix can’t take back more salary than they send out (kind of…we’ll get there momentarily!) and Phoenix also can’t aggregate salaries in a trade either.

That means any trade that sends Butler to the Suns has to send Bradley Beal, Devin Booker or Kevin Durant back to Miami. There’s simply no other way to make a deal work.

The Suns can’t aggregate salaries in trades, so they have to send one of Beal, Booker or Durant to the Heat. However, each player in that trio makes more money than Butler does. Because the Heat are already over the first apron, they can’t take back even one dollar more than what Butler makes in a straight-up deal. The Suns also can’t take back more salary than they send out, so taking back even a minimum-salary player makes this difficult to work.

So, we’re dead in the water, right? Not so fast, my friend!

In NBA trades, each side is allowed to structure a deal in the way that is most beneficial for them. This can be to create a trade exception, or sometimes simply to make a deal legal. It’s that last part where the Suns and Heat could push a trade through. 

Proposed trade:

• Miami Heat acquire Bradley Beal
• Phoenix Suns acquire Jimmy Butler, Josh Richardson

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

• Butler and Richardson combined make less than Beal, so Miami is clear there.
• Miami would trigger a second-apron hard cap, because they have aggregated players in this deal. The Heat would be roughly $3.3 million under the second apron following the trade. Thankfully, that’s more than enough room to fill out their roster to the required 14 players on standard contracts.
• Phoenix isn’t aggregating in this deal, so there are no concerns there.
• The Suns get around the restriction of taking back more salary than they sent out by breaking this up into two trades on their side.
  • Butler is acquired for Beal. Butler makes less than Beal, so no issue there.
  • Richardson is acquired via the Minimum Exception (which allows for any player signed via the Minimum Exception to be acquired in a trade).

(Note: This trade also works with Alec Burks or Thomas Bryant in place of Richardson, but that leaves the Heat with less space under the second apron to fill out their roster post-trade.)

Now, it’s important to note that Bradley Beal has a no-trade clause. Yes, he was reportedly interested in playing in Miami in the past, but that was with Jimmy Butler, not in replace of him. Maybe Beal would be fine with heading back east, but his no-trade clause complicates things quite a bit. He can scuttle any deal if it doesn’t work for him. Basically: Beal has control here, not the teams.

And, yes, this trade would work if you substituted Kevin Durant or Devin Booker for Beal, but it’s unlikely that the Suns would go in that direction.

One last thing: The Suns (or any team acquiring Butler) could extend Butler after this deal. He’d have to decline his player option for next season, and he’d be limited in years and dollars. Neither of those seem like major stumbling blocks, as longer deals would see Butler bumping up against the Over-38 rule and he’s already on a near-max salary as it is.

Houston Rockets

We’re going to cover the Houston Rockets next, because the path to a Butler trade isn’t that complicated for them mechanics-wise. Houston faces no meaningful apron-related restrictions and can aggregate salaries together. The Rockets have more than enough clearance under the luxury tax and the aprons to take back more salary than they send out without any worries.

Houston is sitting on nearly $41 million in expiring or pseudo-expiring (team options and non-guarantees) that they could put into a trade. The Rockets also have a bunch of interesting young players and they have draft assets to put into trade offers too.

Rockets GM Rafael Stone recently reiterated once again that he’s not looking to make a major deal this season. He wants to see what Houston does with this core before committing to adding veterans. We’ll take him at his word…for now. If the cost for Butler comes down enough, or a more appealing veteran star becomes available in the next couple of months, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Stone change his tune a bit.

And that’s fine! Stone doesn’t need to play his hand yet. He’s got a good thing going and he’s got no reason to mess around today. He’s got roughly two more months of evaluation before the deadline to figure out if the Rockets need to do anything or not.

We’re not going to present a proposed trade here, because the options are so plentiful. Play with Rockets-Heat ideas using our NBA Trade Machine until your heart’s content!

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas faces some issues in a potential Jimmy Butler trade. The Mavericks are hard-capped at the first apron (by virtue of the Klay Thompson sign-and-trade acquisition). In addition, the Mavs are only $386,752 under the first apron. That’s a pretty tight margin to work with.

On the plus side, Dallas doesn’t have any aggregation restrictions. That’s good, because the only way they can make a deal is by stacking together a whole bunch of contracts. We’re assuming Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are off-limits here, because why would you add Butler while moving one of your current stars?

Proposed trade:

• Miami Heat acquire Daniel Gafford, Quentin Grimes, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, P.J. Washington
• Dallas Mavericks acquire Jimmy Butler

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

• The Dallas side works, despite the Mavericks taking on more salary than they are sending out by about $600,000. Because P.J. Washington has $500,000 in incentives in his deal, those currently count towards the first apron for the Mavericks. When you send Washington out, those incentives go with him. That creates enough space under the first-apron hard cap to push the trade through.
• However…Dallas would be only $228,917 under the first apron post-trade. And, as you can see, Dallas would have fill three roster spots. That’s not enough space to get back into the roster requirement of having 14 players on standard contracts.

And that’s where we’ll basically cut it off for Dallas. Yes, there are other ways to make a legal trade that also lets the Mavericks fill out their roster, but they all get unlikely, unwieldy or both.

We’ll also add that there’s been some very credible reporting out of Dallas that the Mavericks aren’t ready to take on another near-max veteran with new contracts upcoming for both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in the near future. Let’s just move along.

Golden State Warriors

We saved the most likely team for last, because they are easily the most complicated situation to figure out.

What makes the Warriors the most likely team to trade for Jimmy Butler? They reportedly want another on-ball creator to ease the burden on Stephen Curry and Draymond Green to key everything for their offense. Golden State is also reportedly ok with adding veterans to match Curry’s and Green’s timeline to make the most of whatever the two veteran stars have left.

What makes this the most complicated situation? Once again, it’s those pesky aprons and hard caps!

The Warriors are hard-capped at the first apron. And they have only $533,659 in wiggle room under that marker. Here’s how tight things are for the Dubs: They can’t even fill their 15th roster spot right now, because they don’t have enough space for even a prorated minimum signing under the first-apron hard cap.

On the Heat side, they aren’t hard-capped, but they are only $1,638,713 under the second apron.

Both sides can aggregate salaries, but these margins are really tight. Like pants the day after Thanksgiving tight.

You put in an extra player on the Miami side, and the deal isn’t legal on the Golden State side. You switch out one player for another on the Warriors side and it isn’t legal on the Heat side.

Because of that, we’re going to add in the Detroit Pistons as a facilitator.

Proposed trade:

• Miami Heat acquire Jonathan Kuminga, De’Anthony Melton, Andrew Wiggins from Golden State, top-55 protected second-round pick from Detroit
• Golden State Warriors acquire Jimmy Butler
• Detroit Pistons acquire Gary Payton II

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

• The Heat are taking back approximately $2 million less than they are sending out. That gives them the clearance to push the trade through while not tripping over a first-apron hard cap.
• Golden State clears about $7 million in this deal. Given the Warriors need to sign at least three players to get back into roster compliance with 14 players on standard contracts, that’s enough space to make that happen.
• Detroit still has $10 million in cap space. They can easily absorb Gary Payton II’s deal.
• The Pistons also have an open roster spot, which makes taking in Payton no issue.
• Miami would have to waive a player, or they could route one of their other players somewhere else in a deal, before completing this trade.
• Because Miami and Detroit have to connect to satisfy the “touch rules” in a multi-team trade, we have the Pistons sending the Heat a top-55 protected second-round pick to meet that requirement.

Now, we can, and should, argue about the values here. That’s not really what the exercise was about. Yes, maybe the Heat wouldn’t want Andrew Wiggins contract, but there’s no reasonable way to make this trade happen without Wiggins in the deal.

Summary

If Jimmy Butler wants to get to a contender, especially one with hard cap and apron issues, it’s not going to be easy. Fortunately for the Miami Heat, they have one of the NBA’s preeminent CBA/salary cap maestros in Andy Elisburg in their front office. If it can be done, Elisburg will find a way to make it happen.

The main point of this exercise was to show that trading Butler to the Suns, Warriors, Mavericks or Rockets (the last one is super simple) isn’t impossible. Unlikely? Maybe. Needs to involve a third team? Possibly. Tricky to make work given trade rules and satisfying value requirements on all side? Absolutely.

But it’s not impossible for Jimmy Butler to get where he wants to go. And NBA history tells us that when a star wants to be somewhere, he more often than not gets to that destination.

RELATED:

NBA Trade Machine

December 15 is a big day on the NBA calendar. On that date, the vast majority of the players who signed over the summer become trade-eligible. While NBA “trade season” doesn’t have an official opening day, December 15 might as well be it. Around the league, executives refer to this period as the “Early Trade Season”.

In each of the last six seasons, the NBA has seen a trade made somewhere between days and weeks of “Early Trade Season” opening:

• January 14, 2024: Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala traded from Washington Wizards to the Detroit Pistons for Marvin Bagley III and Isaiah Livers
• December 30, 2023: RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley traded from the New York Knicks to the Toronto Raptors for OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa.
• January 5, 2023: Noah Vonleh traded from the Boston Celtics to the San Antonio Spurs in a salary-shedding/tax avoidance move for Boston
• January 3, 2022: Rajon Rondo traded from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a deal that also involved the New York Knicks
• January 16, 2021 (this season worked on an adjusted calendar due to starting a month later): James Harden was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets in a deal that involved the Cleveland Cavaliers and included seven players and multiple draft picks changing hands
• December 23, 2019: Jordan Clarkson was traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Dante Exum
• December 17, 2018: Trevor Ariza was traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Kelly Oubre Jr. and Austin Rivers

Sometimes the trades involve players where the teams had to wait for the restriction to lift, and other times it’s just time for a deal to happen. Often, these deals are the result of months of trade talks that finally come to fruition in mid-to-late-December. But one thing is certain: be on the lookout for movement when “Early Trade Season” opens on Friday, December 15.

One potential reason, beyond history, to watch for an early trade is the benefit of being an early mover. The new CBA has made it harder to make deals with hard-caps and more ways than ever to trigger them. Waiting until trade deadline week (or even deadline day) to make a major move might be hard to make happen.

Because of that, you might see sellers looking to make moves before the buyer market dries up as a result of various restrictions and tight margins around the tax and the aprons. You could also see buyers make a move early to remove the chance that things get too complicated to pull off a move closer to the February 6th deadline. In addition, the 2025 NBA Draft class is loaded and teams are going to want to put themselves in position to land as high of a pick as possible.

This year, we’ve going to present the list in terms of teams to watch as early movers: either as buyers or sellers. There’s clearly some benefit to getting things done early. We’ll break down why we are focused on these teams as the ones to make an early trade.

Sellers

Brooklyn Nets

Players to watch: The entire roster

No snark intended here. The entire Brooklyn Nets roster is available in trade talks. The Nets don’t have a franchise player Thus, they haven’t made anyone untouchable. That’s the smart approach for Brooklyn.

Why might the Nets move early? They’ve already won at a better clip than ever expected. They didn’t trade to get their draft pick back to finish in the middle of the lottery. (Yes, we know ownership and Sean Marks have both said differently, but we aren’t buying it.) Expect them to pivot towards ping pong balls sooner rather than later.

In any trades they make, the Nets will be looking for a combination of young players, draft picks and salary relief. The Nets currently project to have over $40 million in cap space this summer, but that figure could easily grow to well over $60 million if Marks gets off some future salary.

One counterproposal: This doesn’t look like a quick turnaround for Brooklyn. If they can increase their return in trades by taking on some bad long-term salary, that’s worth considering. There aren’t any splashy, quick-fix free agents that will take the team from rebuilding to contender in the span of one offseason. Eating a little money to improve the young players or draft picks they get for their veterans isn’t a bad idea.

Chicago Bulls

Players to watch: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic

In reality, no one should be off limits for the Chicago Bulls. However, outside of Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, there are reasons others won’t be very involved in trade talks. Some are young and part of what Chicago is building (Matas Buzelis, Coby White, Patrick Williams), while others are coming off injuries or are veterans that won’t bring much in return (Lonzo Ball, Jevon Carter, Torrey Craig).

And let’s not pretend trading LaVine or Vucevic is a simple thing either. LaVine is coming off an injury while carrying a huge contract. Vucevic is an aging big man who doesn’t offer much defensively. But both have been outstanding offensively this year and that’s rebuilt their trade value.

LaVine looks healthy again. He’s been quick and explosive. The veteran guard is turning in one of his best all-around offensive seasons. Yes, his contract is large ($138 million through 2026-27), but LaVine is proving to be worth it. It’s unlikely that a better offensive player will be available at this deadline.

As for Vucevic, he’s having a career-year on offense. The veteran center is shooting 58.7% from the field. That would shatter his career-best mark by over six percentage points. In addition, Vucevic is hitting 47.4% of his three-pointers. Again, easily a career-best mark.

Sure, there’s going to be some drop-off coming. Vucevic is unlikely to maintain such a torrid pace. But there’s not going to be a better offensive center (and he still rebounds at a pretty good clip too) available this trade season than Vucevic.

Despite history to the contrary, the Bulls could be an early mover to accelerate moving towards a better draft pick. Chicago owes a top-10 protected pick to the San Antonio Spurs. They don’t want to be anywhere near that cutoff line come lottery time.

New Orleans Pelicans

Players to watch: Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, Zion Williamson

To be fair, Brandon Ingram has been on trade watch since last summer. We’re still here. The difference now is that Ingram recently changed agents and that’s usually done to spark movement on an extension or a trade.

Here’s the challenge: Ingram just suffered a pretty severe ankle injury. He’s expected to miss multiple weeks. That could slow things down as far as his trade market goes.

To continue to be fair, it’s probably not really likely that C.J. McCollum gets traded, and even less likely Zion Williamson does. But talks now could set the stage for a summer move. If New Orleans resets around a core of Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones and draft picks, they could move the others to hasten that reset, including whoever they get with a likely high draft pick.

It’s that likelihood of a top pick that means the Pelicans could be an early mover. They’re going to want to stay inside the top few picks in the lottery, both to help their odds and to guard against slipping down if others jump up.

New Orleans has said they want to get a look at the roster when healthy, but that doesn’t seem likely to happen this season. Because of that, look here for a big move or two before the deadline.

Portland Trail Blazers

Players to watch: Jerami Grant, Duop Reath, Anfernee Simons, Robert Williams III

The Portland Trail Blazers are probably closer to the Brooklyn Nets in terms of no one being off limits than they’d like to admit. Sure, it’d cost a decent amount to get Shaedon Sharpe or Donovan Clingan (and less to get Scoot Henderson), but neither of those guys screams untouchable franchise guy.

That being said, Portland isn’t going to trade the kids they’ve drafted in the last few years. The vets? Keep a moving company on retainer for the next couple of months.

The Trail Blazers don’t want to miss out on adding a top tier player in the 2025 NBA Draft. So, they need to get to losing. Right now, Portland is seventh in the lottery. That’s not nearly bad enough to guarantee one of the best five or six players in this draft class.

How do you move down? By trading away the vets that are keeping you competitive. Jerami Grant has the long contract, but the size of any single season isn’t overly daunting anymore, not with the cap growth that is projected. Anfernee Simons has a very tradable deal and teams are always looking for backcourt scoring and shooting. Robert Williams III has a great contract, if a team can convince themselves he’ll stay healthy.

Deandre Ayton could be movable, as he’s only got a year left. If there’s a team that is just missing a center from making a playoff run, they could convince themselves to go for Ayton for a two-year look. Matisse Thybulle is kind of in the Williams camp. He’s a great defender and an improved shooter, but he’s battling an injury.

Washington Wizards

Players to watch: Malcolm Brogdon, Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole, Jonas Valanciunas

Basically, if you weren’t selected in the last two drafts, the Wizards will probably trade you. And that’s fine. This team is just starting the full rebuild process, even openly saying they are still in teardown mode.

Washington is already bad. Like, worst in the NBA by a wide margin bad. Why would they be an early mover? Simply to not miss out on the market. If buyers make moves early, options for Washington to trade their vets could dry up. That would be a major missed opportunity.

Expect lots of interest to come in Kyle Kuzma, Malcolm Brogdon and Jonas Valanciunas. All three vets fill holes teams are always looking to plug at the trade deadline. And all three have reasonable, tradable contracts.

Jordan Poole is more of a wild-card. His contract doesn’t look as onerous anymore, because Poole has played quite well this season. This one might be more of an offseason move, but it wouldn’t be a shocker if a team felt like Poole could help them and made a move for him now.

Buyers

Denver Nuggets

Needs: Shooting, bench depth

The Denver Nuggets don’t have a ton to work with trade-wise. They’re over the first apron, so taking back more money than they send out isn’t possible. They do have enough wiggle room under the second apron that they can combine some salary. That’s good news, as Denver can get to about $14.7 million without touching any core rotation players.

That should be enough to get Denver in the mix for some decent upgrades for their bench. This team desperately needs more shooting. They could also simply use more depth across the board. The Nuggets might also move early just so they don’t miss out. Their apron window is tight enough that they need to strike when they can.

Golden State Warriors

Needs: Star power, playmaking

Steve Kerr leaned on his depth early on to propel the Golden State Warriors to a terrific start. Now, that’s started to flip a bit. The Warriors don’t have much star power behind Stephen Curry and they severely lack in on-ball playmaker. In addition, there’s started to be some grumbling about the expanded rotation and inconsistent roles.

The Warriors scream consolidation trade. The margins are extremely tight for Mike Dunleavy Jr. to work around though. Golden State is hard-capped at the first apron and currently have just over $500,000 to work with in space. So, making a big move is tricky, but not impossible.

Mostly, for the Warriors to land a star, they’re likely going to have to put Jonathan Kuminga and/or draft picks on the table in a deal. That’s in addition to probably having to move Andrew Wiggins to match salary.

If it’s a blockbuster trade or a smaller deal to consolidate, while adding depth, expect Golden State to trade De’Anthony Melton. Yes, that’s a little harsh as he’s out for the season, but it’s really just math. Melton’s $12.8 million salary will go a long way towards salary-matching. And because he’s on an expiring deal, the Warriors could re-sign him next summer as a free agent, even if they trade him away now.

Houston Rockets

Needs: Shooting, playmaking

The Houston Rockets are kind of a tricky one. They’re still growing with their young core. They definitely need more shooting, and could use more playmaking, but they won’t want to do that at the expense of their developing players. They’ve said as much repeatedly.

In some ways, Houston is more likely to stand pat at the deadline. Then they can survey where things land, figure out what they need after a postseason run, and make their big move this coming summer.

But if Jimmy Butler really wants to play in Houston, as per reports… Or Kevin Durant surprisingly becomes available… Or (insert veteran star here) is put on the market…

Any of those probably change the calculus for the Rockets. Houston can get to over $40 million in expiring or pseudo-expiring (options or non-guarantees) tradable salary without touching a single core rotation player. Rafael Stone also has some extra draft picks to move, including ones from the Suns and the Nets.

All of the above means that if a star is available, and the Rockets want to be involved in trading for that star, they can be. That makes them a team to watch now, closer to the deadline or next offseason.

Los Angeles Lakers

Needs: Depth, scoring, playmaking, perimeter defense

Nothing has really gone right for the Los Angeles Lakers this season, outside of Dalton Knecht showing he slipped too far in the draft. When you have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, sitting in the middle isn’t acceptable. That means a shakeup is probably coming.

The Lakers struggles as a decidedly average team with little upside, combined with overflowing frustration around transaction inaction, means we’re on the clock for James to suggest a move or two is necessary. And we’re using “suggest” to be nice instead of calling it a demand, which is what it will really be.

The Lakers have the same tight margins as many others, despite not yet triggering a hard cap at either apron. But being well over the first apron, and barely below the second apron, means that Rob Pelinka is going to have to be careful with any moves he makes.

Despite that, Los Angeles has tradable salaries. The only really off-limits players will probably be James, Davis and possibly Knecht (less so for the rookie, but they aren’t just tossing him in deals either). D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, any of the minimum players and, yes, the once-untouchable Austin Reaves could all be moved.

For the Lakers, the reason to make an early move is simple: They need to climb the standings. The last two years have seen Los Angeles have to push really hard for postseason positioning, and that’s resulted in still having to work through the Play-In Tournament. If they want to avoid that this year, stacking wins sooner rather than later is important.

Orlando Magic

Needs: Shooting, playmaking, wing depth

The Orlando Magic have stayed remarkably solid since losing Paolo Banchero. But with Franz Wagner now down with the same injury as Banchero suffered, we’re approaching “three darts is too much” territory for Orlando.

That’s why the Magic are potentially a team to watch to make an early move. This team is good. They’ll be really good when they get Banchero and Wagner back, and that will happen as neither is out for the season. The defense will keep Orlando afloat for the next few weeks, but they could use more offensive punch.

Orlando has all of their own first- and second-round picks, an extra first-round pick (from Denver) and a couple of extra second-round picks. The Magic roster is also pretty well-stocked with talent, meaning rostering a whole bunch more young players might not be possible over the next few years.

In addition, Jeff Weltman can put together some packages featuring solid veterans, youngsters with upside and draft picks. That should have the Magic in position to make a move if they find one.

Here’s the challenge: Orlando has been active at the deadline in the past, but it’s generally been with smaller moves, especially after they held a fire sale in 2021.

The counter: None of the Magic teams since then have been as good as this one is. This Magic team can make a real playoff run. They need to bolster the offense around Banchero and Wagner to do that. By making an early move, Orlando could stabilize the offense until the stars return, while setting themselves up even better in the long-term.

Bonus Player to Watch

Jimmy Butler

News broke on Tuesday that the Miami Heat are open to listening to offers for Jimmy Butler. That’s not all that surprising, given Butler and the Heat have seemed to be moving in different directions since last summer. Pat Riley was critical of Butler during the offseason, while Butler was scarcely moved in his extension desires.

Is a trade coming here? Butler makes $48.8 million this season. That’s a very big number to move in-season. But it’s not impossible. For example. Houston could get there relatively easily (Miami would need to waive a bunch of players or re-route them elsewhere because it would be an imbalanced trade roster-wise). The Warriors are reportedly star-hunting, have liked Butler in the past and could put together some contracts to make a run at the veteran wing.

A player of Butler’s status appearing on the trade market juices things. Also, acquiring someone like Butler takes a bit of time to gel. That could mean we see him on the move sooner rather than later this trade season. Think of this like the OG Anunoby or Pascal Siakam moves last year. Big trades that came together earlier than expected, but helped to kickstart the Raptors rebuild, while pushing the Knicks and Pacers playoff runs.

We got magic, good and bad
Make you happy or make you real sad
Get everything you want, lose what you had
Down here in New Orleans

Those are lyrics from “Down In New Orleans” as sung by Dr. John. And they pretty well sum up the history of the New Orleans Pelicans.

You had the high of the team relocating from Charlotte. Then Hurricane Katrina forced the team away for a couple of years.

Anthony Davis came in the 2012 NBA Draft Lottery and brought the Pelicans a playoff series win with a monster first-round upset in 2018. Then things fell apart and Davis forced a trade to the Los Angeles Lakers just one year later.

The 2019 NBA Draft Lottery delivered generational prospect Zion Williamson to ostensibly replace Davis as the franchise player. Moments of pure magic have been surrounded by Williamson being out of the lineup for long stretches.

Now, the Pelicans are facing a series of difficult decisions down in New Orleans.

Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, C.J. McCollum, Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Jordan Hawkins and Jose Alvarado.

Even with nary a center in that group, that’s a pretty good eight-man rotation.

The Pelicans have played exactly zero games with that group together. In fact, it’s been so bad, that the most minutes played by any even three-man combination of that top-eight is 87 by Ingram, Jones and McCollum.

Injuries have destroyed this team. New Orleans is 4-13 as of this writing. That’s last in the Western Conference and only slightly ahead of the Washington Wizards and Philadelphia 76ers for the worst record overall.

Essentially, after the Murray trade, it felt like the Pelicans had everything you want (minus a good, experience starting center). But as the song tells us, New Orleans can make you happy or make you real sad.

Right now, things are real sad for the Pels.

But the NBA season doesn’t stop in late-November, no matter how bad things get. There are still 65 games left as of this writing. And trade season is only a few weeks away from opening up.

Maybe those 65 games won’t really end up mattering all that much for wins, because the Pelicans are already five games out of the final spot in the Play-In Tournament. But trade season is where we could get some of that good New Orleans magic.

In an ideal world, the Pelicans would move Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum in deals that return younger players and draft assets. Sadly, we don’t live in an ideal world.

Let’s start with Ingram. New Orleans tried to move him over the summer. Nothing happened, because other teams have the same consternation about Ingram that the Pels do: He wants a max or near-max deal, and he’s not really at that level. One All-Star appearance and a bunch of injury-impacted seasons can’t get you another max deal.

Those contract desires have kept Ingram from extending with the Pelicans. And any acquiring team would have the same issues, plus whatever they had to give up in a trade to get Ingram. That’s why the veteran forward is still in New Orleans.

Ingram is having a nice season. His efficiency is a bit down, but that’s because there have been a lot of nights where his available teammates have consisted of two-way players and G League callups. Most encouraging? Ingram has been the lone Pelican to stay healthy this season. 

Ingram makes $36 million this season. That’s a big number, but it doesn’t tip into the $40-to-$50-plus million range where it gets really hard to move in-season.

The good news for New Orleans, and a potential Ingram trade, is that teams get increasingly desperate as the trade deadline closes in. Someone is going to look at Ingram and decide that they can get a scoring/playmaking wing, and that they’ll worry about the next contract later. At that point, it’s up to the Pelicans to establish a price. It’s not quite a “take whatever you can get” situation, but given Ingram’s future with the team seems to be pretty murky, a younger player and/or a draft pick or two should be enough.

McCollum is a different story. His first two seasons with the Pelicans have been better than he often gets credit for. McCollum has been efficient as a shooter and playmaker, and he does a nice job playing off-ball in an offense keyed by Ingram and Zion Williamson. There isn’t a lot of defense there, but McCollum is smart enough to be an ok help defender and director, when he’s not left exposed in pure isolation situations.

That all sounds good, right? Then you look at the contract. McCollum is on the books for $33.3 million this season and $30.6 million next season. That’s not great for an offense-first guard who is 33 years old.

Still, guard help is always in demand around the deadline. The return for McCollum won’t be as good as it will be for Ingram. However, if New Orleans can take back a swap of not-great money that maybe runs a year longer, they could extract a pick or promising young player from a guard-needy team.

But those deals aren’t the needle-movers. Not in the biggest way. To do that, the Pelicans have to consider what was once thought unthinkable.

It’s time to consider trading Zion Williamson. If not a trade, then it’s worth a quiet conversation about getting out of his contract after the season.

Yes, you read that correctly. Here’s why:

• 24 games

• 61 games

• 0 games

• 29 games

• 70 games

• 6 games

Those are the games played for Zion Williamson in his six-year career. That’s a total of 190 games played out of 407 possible games over six seasons. That’s 46.7% availability. In addition, Williamson has played in zero of the Pelicans 10 playoff games since he’s been in the NBA.

When healthy, Williamson is a dynamic offensive force. He’s nearly undeniable going to the rim. He shoots just well enough from the outside that teams can’t sag off him. When they do, Williamson is quick and explosive enough to still finish over a dropped defender. He’s also a very good and, importantly, very willing passer.

The rebounding has never been quite what we hoped it would be. That’s a problem. The defense is also lacking. There are still some crazy turnovers mixed in there too.

But, honestly, none of those negatives really matter all that much. It’s about the availability, or lack thereof.

Williamson is owed the following on his deal:

• 2024-25: $36.7 million ($18.4 million guaranteed until league-wide date of January 7)

• 2025-26: $39.4 million ($7.8 million guaranteed (assuming Williamson met weight clauses), with guarantees escalating based on games played in 2024-25)

• 2026-27: $42.2 million (non-guaranteed, but escalating guarantees based on weight clauses and games played in 2025-26)

• 2027-28: $44.9 million (non-guaranteed, but escalating guarantees based on weight clauses and games played in 2026-27)

That’s a lot to take in. But to make it really simple: The Pelicans can get out of Williamson’s contract after this season with somewhere between zero and $7.8 million owed to him, if he can’t get on the court for 35 of the 65 games New Orleans has left this season. Given Williamson is shelved indefinitely with a hamstring strain, hitting that games-played trigger seems unlikely.

So…do you look at trading your franchise player? Or do you simply waive him and hit the summer with somewhere between $25 million and $30 million in cap space to work with next offseason?

Simply waiving Williamson has to be somewhere close to 99% off the table. While the idea of wiping that contract off the books entirely has to have some appeal, it seems like a fairly “last resort” type of approach.

Trading Williamson? That’s not as crazy as it once seemed.

NBA teams are generally run by folks with big egos. They all believe a player who didn’t fit on one team will fit on their team. And they all believe that they can be the ones to crack the code on keeping an injury-prone player on the floor. When that player is as talented as Zion Williamson is, that belief and the willingness to take a risk is multiplied by a great margin.

If the Pelicans put Williamson on the trade block, they’re going to get offers. It may not be the four-picks and multiple-swaps blockbusters we’ve seen in the past, but New Orleans would net a healthy return for Williamson.

Trading a guy who you built this whole iteration of your team around is a very hard pill to swallow. But when that guy has played in less than half of your games over a six-year period, you have to consider taking a gulp of whatever liquid you have handy and you pop that pill.

There's been trials and tribulations
You know I've had my share
But I've climbed the mountain, I've crossed the river
And I'm almost there, I'm almost there, I'm almost there

Anika Noni Rose sung those lyrics as Princess Tiana in The Princess and the Frog. They also apply to the New Orleans Pelicans.

We’re not addressing any ideas of trading anyone like Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III, Herb Jones, Jordan Hawkins or Jose Alvarado. New Orleans just traded for Murray and just re-signed Murphy. Jones has one of the most team-friendly contracts in the league. Hawkins is still on his rookie scale deal and Alvarado’s contract is so small, there’s no reason to not keep him.

It’s really the trio of Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum and Zion Williamson who you have to consider moving. The real question: Should you do it?

Ingram is probably the easiest one. Assuming you aren’t just giving him away, and the Pelicans won’t have to do that, they should move him. Unless he comes way down in his ask for his next contract, there’s no real reason Ingram should finish the season on this team.

McCollum should be moved, if you can net a positive return. That might come by taking on some onerous longer-term money, but that’s not the end of the world. If you have to pay to get off McCollum’s deal, you don’t make a deal. In that case, the Pelicans need to keep him and ride it out until he’s on an expiring contract next season.

Williamson is by far the hardest decision. Like the song Down In New Orleans says:

We got magic, good and bad
Make you happy or make you real sad

The Williamson magic is so very good. It makes you so very happy. But when he misses so many games, that’s so very bad and makes you real sad.

As painful as it is, the Pelicans have to consider moving Williamson. Let another team be swayed by the potential you see in the games that he does play. If the right deal comes along, it’s time for New Orleans to move along.

But what are they moving to? The 2025 NBA Draft is a good start. New Orleans has all of their own draft picks, including in this loaded 2025 NBA Draft. They’ve already had Lady Luck smile upon them twice in the lottery in the past. A third time would mean bringing Cooper Flagg to New Orleans.

But even if the ping pong balls don’t bounce their way, the Pelicans have already been bad enough that they could end up with Ace Bailey, Dylan Harper, V.J. Edgecombe, Egor Demin, Nolan Traore or another potential franchise guy, should one emerge. The 2025 NBA Draft class is loaded with top-end talent.

It wasn’t how anyone planned for it to go. The Pelicans were supposed to be good. But they aren’t. Injuries have left them a mess. Even as some players have started to return to the lineup, the hole might be too deep. Sure, it’s worth giving this group another few weeks to see if they can spark a turnaround. But the Western Conference is unforgiving. It might be too late in New Orleans.

By having the courage to take some more lumps, New Orleans can put themselves on a path to be better than ever. It wasn’t really by choice, but the path to where we are has already been walked. We do get to choose how we move forward. And it’s time for Pelicans to choose to walk a new path.

There’s been trials and tribulations, but the New Orleans Pelicans are almost there. Like Tiana sang to us: People down there might think you’re crazy, but you can’t care. You can’t take the easy way. You gotta make it happen. You’re almost there.

With all due respect to Agatha Christie, the greatest mystery going right now may involve the NBA and some obscure bookkeeping. No, Steve Ballmer didn’t commit the crime in the Intuit Dome with the Tax Apron. But it doesn’t make the whole sordid mess any easier to untangle that solving the murder in an Agatha Christie novel or a game of Clue.

It’ll be no surprise to anyone that the NBA salary cap and CBA is a complicated thing to figure out. That’s only been made even more complicated by the introduction of the first and second aprons, and all the associated restrictions that come with them.

Further compounding the issues are bonuses. On their face, NBA bonuses are super simple. If a player achieved the criteria for the bonus in the previous season, the bonus is deemed “Likely” and added to the player’s cap and tax number for this season. If the player didn’t achieve the criteria for the bonus in the previous season, the bonus is deemed “Unlikely”. It is then subtracted from the player’s cap and tax number for this season if it was previously “Likely”, or it is left off of their cap and tax number for this season entirely.

Simple enough right? Not so fast, my friend! Much like Wadsworth would say in the movie version of Clue (an all-time classic everyone should see!), it’s never quite that simple.

When we start figuring out the math for the first and second apron, which function as hard caps (if so triggered), then we have to add in all of the player’s bonuses. Let’s do an example to hopefully make this easier to understand!

• Base Salary: $25,000,000
• Likely Bonuses: $1,000,000
• Unlikely Bonuses: $1,000,000
• Cap/Tax Amount: $26,000,000 (Base Salary + Likely Bonuses)
• Tax Apron Amount: $27,000,000 (Base Salary + Likely Bonuses + Unlikely Bonuses)

Simple enough, right? Again: Not so fast, my friend! Well…with a bit less emphasis this time. The math really is that simple. But how it gets applied is far more complicated.

To paraphrase our dear Wadsworth, the answer might be yes or no, but it really depends on the question you are asking.

To go forward, we have to go back. Let’s talk about the luxury tax and the first and second aprons and the hard caps that can be incurred at them. The pertinent figures are:

• Salary Cap: $140,588,000
• Luxury Tax: $170,814,000
• First Apron: $178,132,000
• Second Apron: $188,931,000

As of today, here’s where NBA teams fall within each grouping:

• Under the cap: 1 team
• Over the cap, under the luxury tax: 15 teams
• Over the tax: 5 teams
• Over the first apron: 5 teams
• Over the second apron: 4 teams

So, we’ve got nearly half of the league over the tax, with a third over one apron or the other. And, of those 15 team that are over the cap and under the tax, seven of those teams are within $5 million of being over the tax.

Starting to understand why these various lines matter so much?

Now that we have an idea of where each team sits, let’s talk hard caps. Within the new CBA, there are 10 ways a team can become hard-capped: six at the first apron and four at the second apron.

First Apron Hard Cap Triggers

• Signing a player to a contract via the Non-Taxpayer MLE that is greater than allowable via the Taxpayer MLE (years, salary or both)
• Signing a player to a contract via the Bi-Annual Exception
• Acquiring a player via Sign-and-Trade
• Signing a player after a buyout if that player made more than the Non-Taxpayer MLE that season
• Using more than 100% salary-matching in a trade
• Using a TPE that was created in the prior season

Second Apron Hard Cap Triggers

• Signing a player via the Taxpayer MLE
• Aggregating two or more player salaries in a trade
• Sending out cash in a trade
• Acquiring a player using a TPE that was created in a prior Sign-and-Trade

In addition, if a team isn’t hard-capped but is above the First or Second Apron, they cannot do any of things that would hard cap them at that respective apron.

One last reminder: If you hard-capped, you can’t exceed that hard cap by even $1.

Teams currently hard-capped at the first apron:

• Atlanta Hawks
• Brooklyn Nets
• Chicago Bulls
• Dallas Mavericks
• Golden State Warriors
• Houston Rockets
• LA Clippers
• New Orleans Pelicans
• Oklahoma City Thunder
• Sacramento Kings
• Toronto Raptors
• Washington Wizards

Teams currently hard-capped at the second apron:

• Charlotte Hornets
• Denver Nuggets
• Indiana Pacers
• New York Knicks

Got all that? If not, take some time to read it again. Because we’re about to apply all of this to three real-world, real-time NBA situations.

New York Knicks and the 13th through 15th roster spots

The Knicks are hard-capped at the second apron. New York went to great lengths to make sure that their offseason machinations didn’t trigger a first apron hard cap. Their margins are already tight enough as it is.

Following their offseason moves, the Knicks find themselves with just 12 players on standard contracts. The CBA dictates that teams can only dip below 14 players on standard contracts for 14 days at a time and up to 28 total days per season. As of this writing, New York is roughly $3.6 million below their second apron hard cap.

A non-prorated veteran minimum deal for this season was for $2.1 million. A non-prorated rookie minimum deal is for $1.2 million. As you can see, the Knicks had room to add one veteran minimum signing and one rookie minimum deal. Or they could have done a combination of two or three rookie minimum signings…kind of.

Remember how we said all of this stuff is complicated? Well, here’s another one of those pesky complications!

If a team signs a rookie or 1 Year of Service player who they did not retain draft rights for, that player actually counts against the luxury tax and the aprons at the veteran minimum or 2 Years of Service amount. If a team signs a rookie or 1 Year of Service player who they did retain draft rights for, that player counts at their actual salary amount.

So, the Knicks can’t just sign any rookie to a rookie minimum deal. That wouldn’t fit under the second apron hard cap, assuming they also sign a player to a veteran minimum.

As of this writing, there is reporting the Knicks plan to sign rookie center Ariel Hukporti to a two-year, minimum contract. Hukporti will hit the cap and tax at his prorated rookie minimum salary of just over $1 million. That’s the accounting , because he was a former Knicks draftee.

(Want some more cap nerdery? If you made it this far, you probably do! Hukporti’s two-year deal will include a team option for the 2025-26 season. That will allow the Knicks to decline that option this offseason, then sign to Hukporti to a longer deal than the two-year amount allowed by using the Minimum Exception.)

Taking it further, New York will likely sign a veteran to a prorated minimum deal too. That should land at about $1.9 million. If both of those signings take place on the last possible day to meet NBA roster requirements, the Knicks should have $580,872 in clearance under the second apron hard cap. That’s not enough to sign anyone else now, but on February 25, when there are 48 days left in the regular season, the Knicks would be able to sign a second prorated veteran minimum contract.

(Should New York make a salary-clearing trade between now and the trade deadline, all of this math changes, potentially to point of not really mattering. The Knicks can also play games with starting the 14-day clock again by waiving a player, but that can get really complicated and isn’t worth diving into now.)

Those are pretty tight margins, but they’re workable. A lot of teams will carry only 14 players on standard contracts until we get past the trade deadline and into buyout season.

As far as trades for New York the rest of this year? Keep in mind what we called out triggering a second apron hard cap. The Knicks are so tight to that figure, that making deals could be really difficult for the rest of this league year.

Dejounte Murray’s Bonuses and The New Orleans Pelicans Tricky Tax Timidity

The New Orleans Pelicans are one of two NBA franchises who have never paid the luxury tax. (The other is the Charlotte Hornets, for those interested in very niche NBA trivia.) Given that they aren’t exactly a title contender this year, the Pelicans probably aren’t jumping into paying the tax this season either. There’s also a matter of getting an $18-20 million check as part of the tax distribution if you aren’t a taxpaying team. 

But here’s the challenge: New Orleans is currently about $3.5 million over the luxury tax line.

Now, that’s not a big deal. Last year, the Pelicans were over the tax, but salary-dumped Kira Lewis Jr. at the trade deadline and ended up dodging the tax. It’s fair to expect a similar type of move this season. Waiving Jaylen Nowell before his contract guarantees, plus salary-dumping a minimum deal (Javonte Green, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Daniel Theis) will get them there.

But the Pelicans might have more wiggle room than it currently looks like. This is where Dejounte Murray’s bonuses come into play.

Dejounte Murray has a lot of bonuses in his contract. They add up to early $2.1 million in bonuses in fact. As of right now, almost $700,000 of those bonuses are considered likely. That bring Murray’s cap and tax hit to $29,517,134.

But, not is all that is seems here. Because of course it isn’t, right?

Some of Murray’s likely bonuses are tied to him playing 65 games. If he doesn’t hit 65 games played, the bonus flips over to unlikely. And, given that Murray is out for several more weeks, it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that he’ll hit the 65 games played marker.

This ends up mattering for the Pelicans, because even though his cap/tax hit of $29.5 million won’t adjust until after the season, that adjustment will factor into the tax calculation for New Orleans. So, removing nearly $700,000 in bonuses brings the Pelicans that much closer to dodging that tax.

That means as New Orleans makes their rest-of-season moves, they’ll probably working with Murray at a slightly different tax figure. That’s because he’s probably going to miss out on most of his bonuses for this season.

On the flip side, towards the first apron, at which the Pelicans are hard-capped, he counts for the full amount of his contract, including any likely AND unlikely bonuses. So, that would make trading Murray a potentially trick situation. But the Pelicans aren’t very likely to move a player they just paid a heavy price to acquire.

Instead, let’s look at this situation through a different lens entirely.

Cam Johnson and The Apron Aggregation Anomaly

When it comes to trading players whose unlikely bonuses can cause an issue, there’s perhaps no better example than that of Brooklyn Nets wing Cam Johnson.

Let’s start with a simple question: Would the Nets trade Johnson?

The answer: Yes.

Brooklyn is just starting a rebuild. While Johnson’s contract is a fair value and declines from year to year, it runs for three years. That might be longer than a rebuilding Nets team really wants. And, arguably most importantly, Johnson has solid trade value. Teams are always looking for shooting with size and Johnson brings that. If Brooklyn can get assets for Johnson in the form of draft picks and younger talent, they’ll be interested.

So, what’s the challenge with trading Johnson? Again, those pesky bonuses come into play.

Johnson’s current cap/tax hit is $23,625,000. However, because of his bonuses, his apron hit sits at $27,000,000. That’s a difference of $3,375,000. While not a massive amount, it’s one that makes acquiring Johnson tricky for a team dealing apron issues.

For example, one popular NBA Trade Machine proposal features Johnson headed to the Los Angeles Lakers. In order to acquire Johnson in any reasonable trade construction, the Lakers have to aggregate salaries. That means they trigger a second apron hard cap. As it stands today, Los Angeles is only a scant $45,001 under the second apron. That’s almost no wiggle room, and there’s certainly not enough to bring in Johnson, given he’d account for the additional $3,375,000 towards the apron.

You can mess around with different combinations, but it gets tricky to find a match that makes sense for both the Nets and the Lakers. Given more than half the league is dealing with some form of hard cap, and a few more would be in trouble if they triggered one, finding a team that can easily absorb an additional $3.375 million is going to be somewhat difficult.

By no means does this make Johnson untradable. It just means that teams will have to get creative to find a workable deal, and may need to rope in a third team to get the trade done.

For years, bonuses have been a part of NBA contracts. The most altruistic reason to use them is as true incentives to spur better performance.

Sometimes teams use them to create additional cap or tax room. In 2019, the Brooklyn Nets were super creative in manufacturing some additional cap space by giving Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving some easily achievable, but initially unlikely, bonuses. The Nets gave both players bonuses built around games played, which they knew they would eventually hit, given they were both coming off seasons with missed time.

Teams have also used bonuses as a way to give players a chance at more money, but without doing it directly. Sometimes this is for cap-manipulation reasons, while other times it’s just to give the player something to work for, while still feeling like they got a bigger deal. And, yes, sometimes it’s to win the press conference (or maybe win the tweet?) by putting an artificially larger number out into the world than the player will actually earn.

However, we’re starting to see a change in the tide when it comes to bonuses. This offseason, 16 players signed deals with bonuses attached. However, some of those were carryover situations in extensions. That’s a bit lower than usual. And there’s a chance that the number of players signing deals with incentives will lessen even further in the future.

“For as long as we think the apron might be an issue, we’re probably going to avoid bonuses,” a Western Conference GM told Spotrac. “It simply creates an unnecessary hamstring when you are trying to build out your roster.”

An Eastern Conference executive thinks the bonus issue is going to made trades too hard for teams dealing with a hard cap.

“Look, no one feels bad for you if you trigger a hard cap. You did it to yourself. But the reality is that the idea of a hard cap is to make it…well…hard to make moves. And it works!

But when it comes to bonuses, the hard cap and making a trade, that’s an extra level of difficulty. I likened it to playing a game, but you aren’t allowed to shoot threes. Can you win? Sure. But is it harder? No doubt. It’s just takes a lot more work to get done,” he said.

A longtime agent told Spotrac they’d be fine if bonuses became a thing of the past.

“Pay guys up front. Stop playing games. I get it. I really do. But it’s nice to see some of these rules coming back on those who think they are the smartest guys in the room,” the agent said.

Bonuses aren’t gone. Some deals that run out for several more years have them. And there will always be a real reason to put them in a deal. But now, because of the aprons and the ease with which a team can become hard-capped, teams have an extra level of consideration when adding bonuses into signings and making trades that didn’t fully exist previously.

When trade season unofficially opens in mid-December, don’t be surprised if you hear teams and players bemoaning the issues the aprons and hard caps are causing. As we approach the trade deadline, don’t be surprised if those moans and groans turn into full-blown loud complaints. This is especially true if a deal gets scuttled because fitting in a bonus under a hard cap is too difficult. And, remember, unlike a trade bonus, a player can’t waive a contract bonus to make a trade work.

RELATED:

NBA Apron Tracker

NBA Tax Tracker

NBA Trade Machine