ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Mark Melancon (ARI, RP, 39)
$5M Mutual Option ($2M buyout)

Melancon signed a 2 year, $18m guarantee with Arizona after leading the league with 39 saves in 2021. He disappointed in 2022, missed all of 2023 with a shoulder injury and now enters his age 39 season. The Dbacks are likely to decline their half of the mutual option despite a considerable buyout.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction:  ARI declines their end of mutual option, pays $2m buyout

Miguel Castro (ARI, RP, 29)
$5M Vesting Option

Despite an inconsistent season, Castro surpassed the 60 appearances needed to trigger a $5m Vesting option for 2024. He led all NL relievers with 75 games, finishing 21 of those. The option would have converted to a $6m Player option with 40 games finished.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.7M
Result:  2024 contract guaranteed at $5M

ATLANTA BRAVES

Charlie Morton (ATL, SP, 40)
$20M Club Option (no buyout)

Morton returned to Atlanta on a 1 year, $20m contract with a matching $20m Club option for 2024. Again he provided stability as the Braves mid rotation anchor, starting 30+ games for the 3rd straight season. I doubt this is a piece they want to remove amidst their World Series contention window so this one should be pretty straight forward. If the 40-year-old confirms he wants to return for a 17th season, the Braves are almost certain to exercise the option.  The price tag might feel uncomfortable but it’s in line with our system projections and similar options would likely require multi-year commitments.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $16.7M
Prediction:  ATL exercises the $20M option

Eddie Rosario (ATL, OF, 32)
$9M Club Option (no buyout)

Rosario was a key addition that helped fuel the Braves 2021 World Series run. He tested free agency but ultimately re-signed a 2 year, $18m guarantee with a 2024 Club option at the same $9m AAV. Since that deal, Atlanta has made major commitments to Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris III and Sean Murphy. Most of their offensive core signed to multi-year deals which leaves limited room for offseason improvement on that side of the ball. To be clear, this is a great problem to have - but probably not for Rosario. Id’ be surprised if Atlanta, a team straddling the Luxury Tax threshold, chooses to dedicate $9m towards a platoon corner OF.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $6.4M
Prediction:  ATL declines the $9M club option

Brad Hand (ATL, RP, 34)
$7M Mutual Option ($500,000 buyout)

Hand signed a one year deal with Colorado that included a 2024 Club option. The option could become Mutual if he was traded or finished 25 games. While he fell short on games (15), Hand still earned some leverage with the midseason trade to Atlanta. Ultimately, we doubt it matters. He’s not a traditional closer at this stage of his career and the Braves could look towards cheaper options.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.5M
Prediction:  ATL declines their half of $7M mutual option

Collin McHugh (ATL, RP, 37)
$6M Club Option ($1M buyout)
Kirby Yates (ATL, RP, 37)
$5.75M Club Option ($1.25M buyout)

Both of these go in the same bucket as Brad Hand; useful veteran relievers with somewhat inflated team options that probably discourage a return. Perhaps Atlanta is underwhelmed by external options and decides to bring back one of the three but we projected all as doubtful to return on their respective options.

McHugh Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.5M
Yates Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $6.1M
Prediction: Both options declined, buyouts paid

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Austin Voth (BAL, RP, 32)
$2.45M Club Option (no buyout)

Voth was DFA'ed in early September putting his $2.45M option decision all but to rest this Fall.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Baltimore declines the option

BOSTON RED SOX

Justin Turner (BOS, 3B, 39)
$13.4M Player Option ($6.7M buyout)

This is one of the more interesting option decisions of the offseason. After the Dodgers declined his $16m Club option for 2023, Turner signed a 2 year, $21.7m guarantee with Boston. It paid $8.3m last season but he now controls a $13.4m Player option that carries a sizable buyout (50%). Entering his age 39 season, there’s probably two key considerations here: How many years does he intend to play AND is there motivation to play for a contender in those final seasons?

Turner could simply retire this offseason and earn $6.7m on his way out. If he plans to retire after 2024, he could just exercise the $13.4m Player option and finish his career in Boston. But if Turner intends to play beyond 2024, he might opt-out in search of another multi-year deal similar to his existing contract.

Financially speaking, the opt-out + buyout is his best option. Turner would enter a lackluster DH/1B free agent market coming off another productive season (.276 AVG / 23 HR / 96 RBI) and could realistically command a deal around 2 years, $15m. Accounting for the $6.7m buyout, the two year total would match his Boston deal ($21.7m).

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9M
Prediction: Turner declines the option, takes the buyout, and tests the open market

Corey Kluber (BOS, SP, 38)
$11M Club Option (no buyout)

This looks like the end of the road for the two-time Cy Young Award winner. Boston signed Kluber last offseason to a 1 year, $10m deal that included an $11m Club option for 2024. Simply put, he was one of the worst starters in MLB through June before finishing the season on the IL. Perhaps Kluber gets another shot if he’s healthy but no chance the Red Sox exercise this option.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Boston declines the $11M option

Joely Rodriguez (BOS, RP, 32)
$4.25M Club Option ($500k buyout)

Rodriguez missed most of 2023 due to injury, making just 11 appearances for the Red Sox this season. He’ll be back on the open market this winter.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Boston declines the $4.25M option

CHICAGO CUBS

Marcus Stroman (CHC, SP, 33)
$21M Player Option

Stroman was among the crowded group of SPs available in 2022 free agency.  He surprisingly signed with the rebuilding Cubs, settling for a short term deal that paid $50m across the first two seasons but provided a player option for 2024. That option vested at $21m but could have escalated to $25m based on innings pitched in 2022 and 2023 (conditions not met).

At one point it appeared obvious Stroman would opt-out following an All-Star worthy first half but he completely fell apart as the calendar flipped to July. He’s hinted at a desire to stay and potential extension but the Cubs reportedly are not interested. Now it seems he’ll likely opt-in to the final year and hope to restore some value ahead of 2024 free agency.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15.6M
Prediction: Stroman exercises the $21M option

Kyle Hendricks (CHC, SP, 34)
$16M Club Option ($1.5M buyout)

This was the final guaranteed year of a 4 year, $55M arbitration extension that includes a $16M Club option for 2024. The option had vesting potential if he was top 3 in the 2020 Cy Young vote but Hendricks finished 9th.

His struggles in 2021 and 2022 made this option a longshot entering the season, but Hendricks’ bounceback performance will now force a difficult decision for the Cubs. The Stroman/Hendricks decisions are further complicated by multi-year commitments made to Jameson Taillon (4yr, $68M) and Drew Smyly (2yr, $19M) last offseason. The team probably anticipated Stroman and/or Hendricks being off the roster starting 2024. Instead, with Justin Steele their starting five might already be in place. It’s hard to suggest that's a bad problem but the Cubs need to find some runway for their younger arms.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.5M
Prediction: Chicago declines the option

Cody Bellinger (CHC, OF/1B, 28)
$12M Mutual Option ($5.5M buyout)

The former RoY and MVP could add Comeback Player of the Year to his accolades after a bounceback season in Chicago. The historic start to his career earned him $11.5m in 2020 and set a salary record for first-time eligible arbitration players. It put  Bellinger on pace to earn $44.6m across his first three years of arbitration eligibility despite the disastrous seasons that followed. The Dodgers non-tendered him last offseason to avoid paying the projected $18m salary in his final year of eligibility (Super Two status).

Bellinger subsequently signed a one-year ‘prove it’ deal with the Cubs. The $12m contract included a matching $12m Mutual option or $5.5m buyout for 2024. There’s no doubt Bellinger will decline his half of this but it’s less certain that he actually changes teams. Despite being one of the most coveted assets at the trade deadline, Chicago held him, and there seems to be mutual interest regarding a possible extension. If not, Bellinger should command one of the largest free agent contracts this offseason.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $22.5M
Prediction: Bellinger declines the option

Yan Gomes (CHC, C, 36)
$6M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Gomes served as the backup catcher in his first season with the Cubs but his role entering 2023 was uncertain after Willson Contreras departed to St. Louis in free agency. He ended up earning the lion's share of playing time on defense (55%) which helped facilitate a productive (.267 AVG / 10 HR / 63 RBI) line on offense. Now the Cubs hold a $6m Club option that would be a bargain if Gomes can come anywhere close to repeating that production. Chicago will likely exercise the option and pair him with Miguel Amaya for one more season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $10M
Prediction: Chicago exercises the option

Brad Boxberger (CHC, RP, 26)
$2.45M Club Option ($800,000 buyout)

Boxberger only saw action in 11 games this season due to arm injury, so it’s unlikely the Cubs will rush to add guarantees to this situation anytime soon.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Cubs decline the option

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Liam Hendriks (CHW, RP, 35)
$15M Club Option ($15M buyout - deferred)

Hendriks remarkable comeback from cancer treatment was derailed by Tommy John surgery in August, another discouraging injury that could force him to miss most or all of 2024. This was technically the final guaranteed year of his deal but fortunately his 2024 total is ‘guaranteed’ in the form of a uniquely structured Club option. The $15m option carries a matching $15m buyout that would pay $1.5m annually over 10 years.

The White Sox could decline and spread out the cost to free up money next year but they've already removed over $75m from an Opening Day payroll that hovered around $190m in consecutive seasons. It's difficult to imagine this team contending in 2024 so new GM Chris Getz might be encouraged to clear this payroll next season rather than deferring into future years. 

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.7M
Prediction: Chicago exercises the option

Tim Anderson (CHW, SS, 31)
$14M Club Option ($1M buyout)

At one point his 6 year, $25m pre-arbitration extension was considered one of the best value deals in all of baseball. Anderson led the league with a (.335) batting average in 2019, won a Silver Slugger in 2020 and added consecutive All-Star appearances in 2021 and 2022. Chicago exercised their $12.5m Club option last season and control a similar $14m Club option for 2024.

With a shifting contention window and Anderson coming off the worst season of his career, the White Sox probably want to move on. Not to mention they’d simultaneously clear a path for top prospect (SS) Colson Montgomery who could debut in 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5.1M
Prediction: Chicago declines the option

Mike Clevinger (CHW, SP, 33)
$12M Mutual Option ($4M buyout)

This situation is hard to read. Chicago waived Clevinger in August but he cleared and stayed with the organization. It was a cost savings transaction but could have hinted at plans to decline their end of a $12m Mutual option for 2024. White Sox manager Pedro Grifol expressed hope for a return but we’re skeptical. Given his 2023 performance and team context, Clevinger should be tempted to reenter the free agent market. There are some off field concerns that could complicate his value but we think he’ll command a multi-year guarantee regardless. At minimum, he should easily surpass the $8m he’d be walking away from.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $13.6M
Prediction: Clevinger declines the option

CINCINNATI REDS

Joey Votto (CIN, 1B, 40)
$20M Club Option ($7M buyout)

Votto just completed the final guaranteed season of the massive 10 yr, $225m extension he signed way back in 2012. Now Cincinnati holds a $20m Club option or $7m buyout for 2024. It sounds like the 40-year old plans to play an 18th season but it might not come via this option. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is their future at 1B and the Reds should look to give him a full season of reps to build on his strong debut. That could be hard to do with a legacy player making $20m still in the fold. But Votto is an institution in Cincinnati and they shouldn't rush him out the door, the option salary just doesn't align with his current value. Assuming there's mutual interest in a return, the Reds could decline + buyout ($7m) then hand him something around 1 year, $7m in a lesser role.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5.5M
Prediction: Cincinnati declines the option

Curt Casali (CIN, C, 35)
$2.5M Club Option ($750k buyout)

A foot injury and a platoon role afforded Casali only 80 ABs in 2023, putting his $2.5M option on notice. Though it’s not a daunting salary for a team with very few veteran guarantees on its payroll.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Cincinnati exercises the option

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

No option candidates.

COLORADO ROCKIES

No option candidates.

DETROIT TIGERS

Miguel Cabrera (DET, DH/1B, 40)
$30M Club Option ($8M buyout)

After consecutive MVP awards in 2012 and 2013, Cabrera signed a massive 8 year, $248 million extension (starting 2016) days ahead of the 2014 season. The deal included individual $30m Club options for 2024 and 2025 that could vest with a top 10 MVP finish the previous year. Cabrera already announced his retirement following the 2023 season but these options were never in play from the start. He hasn’t received MVP votes since 2016 and would be entering his age 41 season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: N/A
Prediction: Retirement, Hall of Fame

Javier Baez (DET, SS, 31)
4 year, $98M Player Opt-Out

Baez was one of four big names at shortstop competing for free agent money in 2022. Corey Seager (10yr, $325M) signed a fully guaranteed deal but Carlos Correa (3yr, $105.3m), Baez (6yr, $140M) and Trevor Story (6yr, $140M) settled for contracts that included player opt-outs in 2023, 2024 and 2026 respectively. Correa capitalized on that strategy last offseason inking a 6 year, $200m deal despite a market including Trea Turner (11yr, $300M), Xander Bogaerts (11yr, $280M) and Dansby Swanson (7yr, $177M).

Now Baez is next in line with an opportunity to opt-out of the remaining 4 years, $98M left on his deal. It’s been reported he’s at least considering the opt-out which might come as a surprise following the worst full season of his career. We’re skeptical he’d match or exceed the total forfeited making it unlikely, but Baez would re-enter free agency as easily the most accomplished player available at the position - way ahead of other options like Brandon Crawford and Amed Rosario.

The offense has hit a cliff but he’s still excellent defensively. There would certainly be interest if he became available, just not at a $100m price tag. Perhaps the best-case scenario here is a trade where Detroit retains a chunk of the remaining contract (assuming no opt-out).

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $11.7M
Prediction: Baez opts-in

Eduardo Rodriguez (DET, SP, 31)
3 year, $49M Player Opt-Out

Rodriguez just finished the second season of a 5 year, $77m contract but now has the option to opt-out and bypass the final three years of that deal. His choice should be simple considering he’ll easily command north of the $49m total left on the existing contract. We project his value lands somewhere between Joe Musgrove (5yr, $100m) and Kevin Gausman (5yr, $110m).

Rodriguez vetoed a deadline trade to the Dodgers citing his “desire to remain closer to family on the east coast”. Perhaps it was a signal towards intentions of staying in Detroit, but that narrative is complicated considering a ‘family situation’ forced him to spend almost 3 months away from the team in 2022. If a reunion is actually on the table, it’ll have to come via free agency. Tigers president Scott Harris already said the organization won’t negotiate an extension and will instead wait for Rodriguez to exercise his opt-out. Detroit has exclusive negotiating rights until that happens. If they do want Rodriguez back, it’s puzzling that they’re unwilling to discuss a new deal - unless both sides already know where this is headed.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $20.5M (5 years, $102M)
Prediction: Rodriguez will opt-out

Carson Kelly (DET, C, 29)
$2.5m Club Option

Kelly was picked up in August after a swift DFA by Arizona. There’s probably not enough meat on the bone here to justify a $2.5M salary next season, even if his 2-year valuation places him higher.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.3M
Prediction: Detroit declines the option

HOUSTON ASTROS

Hector Neris (HOU, RP, 34)
$8.5M Player Option ($1M buyout)

Neris came to Houston in 2022 on a free agent deal. The Astros brought him in as a direct replacement for Kendall Graveman who signed a 3 year, $24m contract with the White Sox. Houston was unwilling to go beyond two years for any reliever and landed Neris on a 2 year, $17m guarantee that included a third year Club option at the same $8.5m valuation. That option converted to a Player option after Neris appeared in 110 games across both seasons. A critical piece of the Astros dominant bullpen, his value has only increased since signing and we fully expect an opt-out in search of a multi-year guarantee.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $7.6M
Prediction: Neris opts out, seeking a multi-year deal

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

No option candidates.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

Eduardo Escobar (LAA, 3B, 35)
$9M Club Option ($500k buyout)

Escobar was brought in on a 2 year, $20m guarantee after the Angels mistakenly self-assessed themselves as contenders. Now they’re tearing things down and will look to shed payroll wherever possible. This is one of those obvious spots and there is no chance they exercise his $9m Club option for 2024. Escobar can still provide value in the right situation and should find another deal, especially considering the 3B free agent market.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5M
Prediction: LAA declines the $9M option

Aaron Loup (LAA, RP, 36)
$7.5M Club Option ($2M buyout)

LA brought in Loup to be the everyday setup reliever, and he hung around well in 2022 - but fell off of a cliff this past season. He’s a plug and play reliever at best going forward.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: LAA declines the $7.5M option

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Lance Lynn (LAD, SP, 37)
$18M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Lynn was awful in Chicago and only marginally better after being traded to Los Angeles. He accepted the trade despite including the Dodgers on his no-trade list, which some players use to leverage future guarantees. Lynn could have approved the deal to LAD under conditions they exercise the 2024 Club option. We doubt that happened here considering his miserable first half performance. The Dodgers have questions at SP so perhaps they renegotiate, but not at this salary.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $8M
Prediction: LA declines the $18M option

Max Muncy (LAD, INF, 33)
$14M Club Option (no buyout)

Muncy posted another big season, raking 36 HRs, with an .808 OPS to boot. He’s a $15M player in our system, so a $14M option salary seems about right.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15.7M
Prediction: LA exercises the $14M option

Joe Kelly (LAD, RP, 36)
$9.5M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Kelly was acquired from the White Sox prior to this year’s deadline, but spent a month in IL due to arm issues. His value has been cut in half over the past two seasons.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.4M
Prediction: LA declines the $9.5M option

Blake Treinen (LAD, OF/1B, 36)
$7M Club Option (no buyout)

Shoulder injuries/surgery derailed each of the past two seasons for Treinen. He’s a minimum player as he rehabs himself back to full health.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: LA declines the $7M option

Daniel Hudson (LAD, RP, 37)
$6.5M Club Option (no buyout)

Knee injuries kept Hudson on the shelf for half of 2022 and all of 2023. He’s a minimum player as he rehabs himself back to full health.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: LA declines the $6.5M option

Alex Reyes (LAD, RP, 29)
$3M Club Option (no buyout)

LA took a flier on Reyes, who missed all of 2022 with a shoulder injury, but went on to miss all of 2023 with a torn labrum as well. He’s a minimum player until he can prove he can stay healthy for a season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: LA declines the $3M option

MIAMI MARLINS

Josh Bell (MIA, 1B, 31)
$16.5M Player Option

Bell probably can’t beat a $16.5M per year average on the open market - but he probably finds a total value guarantee north of it. With that said, Bell’s season really turned a corner when he joined Miami.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $14.5M
Prediction: Bell exercises the $16.5M player option

Johnny Cueto (MIA, SP, 38)
$10.5M Club Option ($2.5M buyout)

Cueto posted a 6+ ERA and a minus WAR in 2023, putting his $10.5M option on notice. Is he in decline, or were injuries to blame for the struggles? He’s only 1 year removed from a 3.4 WAR campaign.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.5M
Prediction: Miami declines the $10.5M option

Jorge Soler (MIA, OF, 32)
$9M Player Option

Soler put together a big power season (24 2B, 36 HR, .853 OPS), setting the 31-year-old up for a multi-year guarantee this winter.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $14M
Prediction: Soler declines the $9M option

Matt Barnes (MIA, RP, 34)
$9M CLUB Option ($2.75M buyout)

Barnes only made 24 appearances due to injury, and has struggled to remain consistent for the better part of two seasons now.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.8M
Prediction: Miami declines the $9M option

Jon Berti (MIA, INF, 34)
$3.625m Club Option ($25k buyout)

Berti remains a do-it-all player for Miami, and could be headed toward Arbitration 3 this winter with a very nice resume under his belt. Instead, the Marlins should find plenty of value in his $3.6M salary for 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $7.6M
Prediction: Miami exercises the $3.625M option

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Mark Canha (MIL, OF, 35)
$11.5M Club Option ($2M buyout)

Canha was exceptional for Milwaukee (120 OPS+ in 50 games) after treading water with the Mets to start the 2023 campaign. His $11.5M option is very much a possibility for Milwaukee, but a multi-year contract extension could be as well.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $8.5M
Prediction: Milwaukee exercises the $11.5M option

Wade Miley (MIL, SP, 37)
$10m Mutual Option ($1M buyout)

Miley's put together one of his more efficient (and healthy) seasons of late (3.14 ERA, 2.52 WAR in 23 starts). The almost 37-year-old seems a shoe-in to exercise his end of this $10M, will Milwaukee do the same?

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $8M
Prediction: Milwaukee declines the $10M option

Andrew Chafin (MIL, RP, 34)
$7.25M Club Option ($750k buyout)

Chafin was acquired at the deadline from Arizona, but struggled to keep runners off base down the stretch for Milwaukee. He’s about a $3.5M player in our system right now, so a leap to $7.25M for 2024 seems pricey.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $3.5M
Prediction: Milwaukee declines the $7.25M option

Justin Wilson (MIL, RP, 36)
$2.5M Club Option (no buyout)

Wilson’s 2023 was basically a wash as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, then battled a lat issue down the stretch.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: Milwaukee declines the $2.5M option

MINNESOTA TWINS

Jorge Polanco (MIN, 3B, 29)
$10.5M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Polanco’s production has declined a bit in each of the past two seasons, but his value was on display down the stretch and into Minnesota’s postseason run. His $10.5M option aligns well with a current $11M valuation, making this a 50/50 call for the Twins.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $11M
Prediction: Minnesota exercises the $10.5M option

Max Kepler (MIN, OF, 31)
$10M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Kepler posted career highs in 2023 and was a major reason for the Twins 2023 success. A $1.5M raise for 2024 seems worthy.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15M
Prediction: Minnesota exercises the $10M option

NEW YORK METS

Omar Narvaez (NYM, C, 32)
$7M Player Option

Narvaez was reduced to a role player in New York with the emergence of Francisco Alvarez, sinking his current valuation down to near $3M. Opting in seems a no brainer for him, but he’s a trade candidate this winter as well.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.8M
Prediction: Narvaez opts in to the $7M

Adam Ottavino (NYM, RP, 38)
$6.75M Player Option

The almost 38-year-old saw action in 65 games last season, and should be back in the fold for a middle reliever spot in 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.8M
Prediction: Ottavino opts in to the $6.75M

Brooks Raley (NYM, RP, 36)
$6.5M Club Option ($1.25M buyout)

The lefty reliever carries a $7M valuation into the winter, and his $6.5M option represents a $2M raise over last season’s compensation. 

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $7M
Prediction: The Mets exercise Raley’s $6.5M option

NEW YORK YANKEES

No option candidates

OAKLAND A’s

Drew Rucinski (OAK, SP, 35)
$5M Club Option (no buyout)

Rucinski gave up 18 earned runs in 18 innings before hitting the shelf with an MCL sprain. The A's have a chance to pay him $5M or nothing this winter. Let's all guess which one they'll choose.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: Oakland declines the option

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Scott Kingery (PHI, 2B, 30)
$13M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Kingery hasn't played a meaningful game for the Phillies since the 2020 season. This one is already stamped in red.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum/Minor
Prediction: Philly declines the $13M option

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Jarlin Garcia (PIT, RP, 31)
$3.25M Club Option (no buyout)

Garcia dealt with a nerve issue in his arm for the 2023 season, all but guaranteeing that Pittsburgh takes the free out on his club option this winter. Especially with no buyout attached to the decision.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Pittsburgh declines the $3.25M option

SAN DIEGO PADRES

Nick Martinez (SDP, SP, 33)
2 years, $32M Club Option + conditions

The Padres have the opportunity to lock in Martinez at $16M per year over the next two seasons this fall. If they decline, Martinez garners back to back $8M player options instead. In both cases, the options must be decided on together (so 2 for $32M or 2 for $16M). While he posted career highs across the board in 2023, it’s still unlikely that San Diego locks in $32M on their end, putting the decision in Martinez’ hands.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9M
Prediction: Both sides decline the options

Michael Wacha (SDP, SP, 33)
2 years, $32M Club Option + conditions

The Padres have the opportunity to lock in Wacha for the next 2 years at $32M with an exercise this fall. One can argue he just posted his best overall season to date, and now carries an $18M valuation in our system. If San Diego declines, the scenario converts to a 3 year, $18.5M player option that Wacha is sure to opt out of.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $18M
Prediction: San Diego exercises the 2 years, $32M

Seth Lugo (SDP, SP, 34)
$7.5M Player Option

Finally got a chance to start exclusively, and rewarded San Diego for it (115 ERA+, 1.81 WAR). The almost 34-year-old holds a near $10M valuation in our system, and will likely seek a multi-year guarantee this winter.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.8M
Prediction: Lugo declines the $7.5M option

Matt Carpenter (SDP, DH/1B, 38)
$5.5M Player Option

Carpenter didn’t come close to recreating the magic he created with the 2022 Yankees, making his $5.5M player option for 2024 a bit of a problem for the Padres. The almost 38-year-old will lock in this payday as quickly as possible. 

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2M
Prediction: Carpenter exercises the $5.5M option

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Michael Conforto (SFG, OF, 31)
$18M Player Option

If the goal for Conforto was to prove he can be the player he was before his hamstring injuries, he did exactly that. His 2023 numbers finished up nearly identical to his 2021 production. Did he do enough to warrant a multi-year guarantee this winter? Probably, but the per year price tag won’t look a heck of a lot different than the $18M salary he needs to decide on with this option.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $16.1M
Prediction: Conforto opts out for a multi-year guarantee

Sean Manaea (SFG, SP/RP, 32)
$15M Player Option

Manaea was a bit of a jack of all trades, master of none, for the Giants in 2023, but he proved valuable from a reliability level down the stretch. $15M seems like a nice payday for him next season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $12M
Prediction: Manaea exercises the $15M salary

Ross Stripling (SFG, SP, 34)
$15M Player Option

Stripling posted his worst statistical season in 3 years, and seems a lock to opt in to the $15M player option for 2024.  A nagging back issue should be cause for concern going forward.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $12.4M
Prediction: Stripling exercises the $15M salary

Alex Cobb (SFG, SP, 36)
$10M Club Option ($2M buyout)

Cobb has been one of the better values in baseball for the past 3 seasons (combined 6.55 WAR), so a $1M raise from $9M to $10M for 2024 is well within reason for San Francisco.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15.4M
Prediction: San Francisco exercises the $10M option

SEATTLE MARINERS

No option candidates

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

No option candidates

TAMPA BAY RAYS

No option candidates

TEXAS RANGERS

Max Scherzer (TEX, SP, 39)
$43,333,333 Player Option

Scherzer has already consented to opting in on this massive salary as part of the move from New York this August. That was of course going to be the case in any scenario however. The good news? New York is paying $20,833,334 of this salary, leaving a much more tenable $22,500,000 for the Rangers to take on in 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $31.5M
Prediction: Scherzer exercises the $43.3M option

Andrew Heaney (TEX, SP, 33)
$13M Player Option ($500k buyout)

Heaney couldn’t match his strong 2022 campaign, but still proved to be viable and worthy of a rotation spot down the stretch. He seems a shoe-in to accept the $13M player option, but his calculated value does align nicely with that price point, so venturing into the open market to seek a multi-year guarantee isn’t out of the question here either.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $13.7M
Prediction: Heaney declines for a longer guarantee

Jose Leclerc (TEX, RP, 30)
$6.25M Club Option ($500k buyout)

Leclerc has blossomed into a devastating back end reliever for the Rangers, who exercised his $6M option for 2023 with ease, and should have no trouble tossing in a $250,000 raise for 2024 to do so again.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $10.6M
Prediction: Texas exercises the $6.25M option

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B, 35)
$18M Mutual Option ($500k buyout)

Merrifield posted nearly identical back to back seasons for Toronto in 2022 & 2023, but that production doesn’t approach a potential $18M salary for 2024. Toronto is largely expected to decline their end of this option, placing Merrifield back on the open market with a $6.5M valuation - not far off from the salary he just finished out in 2023 ($6.75M).

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $6.5M
Prediction: Toronto declines the $18M option

Chad Green (TOR, RP, 33)
Multiple Conditions

It’s complicated. First and foremost, Toronto has the ability to exercise a 3 year, $27M extension at $9M per year through 2026. That seems highly unlikely right now. If/when declined, the scenario  converts to a 1 year, $6.25M player option for Green - which seems very likely to be exercised. If it’s not, Toronto then has the ability to exercise a 2 year, $21M extension at $10.5M per year - again, very unlikely. Green’s recovery from Tommy John should have him available by the start of the 2024 campaign, but he’ll be overpriced on that $6.25M salary if not.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.4M
Prediction: Green exercises his $6.25M player option

Yimi Garcia (TOR, RP, 33)
$6M Vested Option

His 2024 option was originally valued at $5m with a $1m buyout. Garcia needed 60 IP or appearances in 2023, OR 110 IP or appearances in 2022-23 combined to trigger a $6m Vesting option in his contract. He met all conditions and is guaranteed the full value of the previous option and buyout.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5.8M
Result: $6M option easily vested

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Victor Robles (WSH, OF, 27)
$3.3M Club Option (no buyout)

Despite a hopeful 2022 campaign, an injury plagued 2023 probably sealed the deal on Robles’ future in Washington. His $3.3M option isn’t overly expensive (especially in comparison to a $2.4M projection in arbitration next season), but the Nationals are likely to upgrade here no matter what. 

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.4M (Arbitration 3)
Prediction: Option declined, player non-tendered

The NBA preseason is here! Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so. We’ve already covered the Atlantic Division, Southeast Division, Southwest Division and Pacific Division teams.

Chicago Bulls

Who starts at point guard? 

The Bulls will be without Lonzo Ball for the entirety of the 2023-24 season. Ball is recovering from another knee surgery, but this time there is optimism he’ll make it back for the start of next season.

Until then, Chicago needs someone to play point guard.

The lead guard position for the Bulls doesn’t have to be your traditional playmaker. Billy Donovan runs a lot of his offense through DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. Ayo Dosunmu started for most of last season, with Patrick Beverley taking over after being added during buyout season. Neither of them is really a pure point guard.

Dosunmu is back this season, as is Coby White, after both young guards re-signed with the Bulls this summer. Chicago also added Jevon Carter in free agency. Alex Caruso (who has shifted away from point guard reps over the years) and Carlik Jones are also returning.

We can probably eliminate the latter two from this competition. Caruso is the Bulls version of a utility player in baseball. He’ll play a lot by playing a little bit of everything. Jones is coming off an impressive summer with South Sudan at the FIBA World Cup, but he remains very unproven at the NBA level. He’s still a developmental project for Chicago.

That leaves a three-way tussle between Dosunmu, White and Carter. All have reasons to believe in them, while also having reasons to question them.

Dosunmu has started 91 of his first 157 NBA games. He’s got the experience alongside DeRozan and LaVine. He knows his role is to defend, function as a secondary or tertiary creator and to make shots when open. It’s that last part where things went sideways last season. After hitting an exciting 37.6% from deep as a rookie, Dosunmu fell off to a terrible 31.2% in his second year. If he’s not making shots, he can’t play regularly. Someone needs to open the floor for DeRozan and LaVine.

The potential good news? As a freshman at Illinois, Dosunmu hit 35.2% of his triples, before falling off to just 29.6% as a sophomore. In his junior year, Dosunmu bounced back to hit 38.6% from behind the arc. If he can experience a similar bounce-back as a third-year of NBA play, Dosunmu might win back his starting job.

White got the start in the Bulls first preseason game. He’s 23 years old now and has four NBA seasons under his belt. White has also been pretty durable, so he has a good amount of experience.

The downside? White’s role has been all over the place in his four-year career. As a rookie, he was an on-ball scoring option off the bench. He was inefficient, but that’s true of most rookies. As a second-year player, White was the team’s starting point guard. He showed signs of improving his playmaking ability, while his efficiency took the expected upturn.

With Ball joining the team, White went back to the bench role in Year 3. He was even more efficient, but his playing time and number of shots both took a marked downturn. Year 4 was easily White’s most efficient scoring season, but he played and shot the least amount in his NBA career.

Now, the door seems open for White to take back the starting point guard spot. His shooting from behind the arc has stabilized. He hits for a solid percentage on a pretty good volume of three-pointers. White is also the best at creating his own shots, or shots for others, out of the threesome competing for the starting gig.

The one thing Donovan and staff will be looking to see from White is better defense. As reserve, some of his “Ole!” style of swiping for a steal and then waiting for an outlet pass, can be overlooked. A lot of scoring guards play that way off the bench. As a starter, White needs to freelance less and he has to be competitive. The tools are there, he just has to harness them.

Harnessing defensive ability is no problem for Carter. He’s one of the best on-ball pests in the NBA. Few players are as adept at picking up full court and harassing an opposing ballhandler. Carter isn’t a steal merchant. He’s just always there, a constant annoyance for the guy he’s guarding.

Carter is also the best shooter of this group, as he’s a tick under 40% from deep for his career. Carter’s entire NBA run has also been as a spot-up guy, playing off teammates. That’s a good skill for Chicago, considering DeRozan and LaVine will run the show there.

The challenge with Carter starting is that he hasn’t done it much. He’s started 48 games in five years, and 39 of those starts came last season. That might be one of those situations where we don’t know how a guy will hold up until he gets a shot, but it’s enough of a question that the Bulls will think about it. There’s also the fact that both White and Dosunmu have some organizational cache built up, which matters more than many think.

The guess here is that White takes the job. As long as he defends enough, he should be able to keep it. But Dosunmu has started as recently as last year, and Carter is around. None of the three should feel overly comfortable, even if they start on opening night. And that’s probably best for the Bulls for keeping all of them on their toes.

Who is the backup power forward? 

Patrick Williams is going to start at the four again. That’s fine, even if he might still ideally be more of a wing. But Chicago does enough with him, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine switching and matching up defensively, that it probably doesn’t matter.

What does matter is who is backing up Williams. That spot seems to be wide open.

Last season, Billy Donovan picked from a grab bag of Javonte Green, Derrick Jones Jr. and the decidedly not-a-four Alex Caruso behind Williams. Caruso is back, but he recently spoke that playing the four takes a toll on him and it’s something he and Bulls would like to avoid, given his overall importance to the roster.

This year the backup minutes at the four will probably fall mostly to Torrey Craig. And that’s probably a big upgrade over last season, given Caruso will be able to contribute more behind DeRozan and Lavine.

Craig was one of the better value signings of the summer, as the Bulls got him on a two-year, veteran minimum deal. Although Craig is a prototypical small forward, he’s logged plenty of time as a small-ball power forward. Last season might have been an outlier, as Craig hit 39.5% of his threes. If that repeats, Chicago will be thrilled with Craig as the ideal Williams backup.

What makes Craig ideal is the way the Bulls play. As mentioned above, they kind of treat Williams, DeRozan and LaVine as a trio on defense. Williams takes the best perimeter guy, with DeRozan and LaVine taking the lesser threats. Even when the opponent plays with two bigs, Williams is generally still on the best perimeter option, with DeRozan guarding up a spot.

Craig can do what Williams does on defense, albeit with a bit less size. If he’s making shots at a nearly 40% clip, that’s a pretty good replication of Williams too.

The one challenge comes if there are injuries elsewhere. If a wing goes down, and Craig is pressed into service there, then there isn’t a good option behind Williams on the roster. That could be a place where some of the point guard depth is traded to plug that hole. Something to keep an eye on into the middle of the season.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Who is the fifth starter? 

Assuming Jarrett Allen’s ankle injury doesn’t keep him out for too long, the Cavs have four of five starters set. Allen will be joined by Evan Mobley up front, and Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are the starting backcourt. It’s that middle spot at small forward that is up for grabs.

Last season, the fifth spot was split somewhat equally between Caris LeVert and Isaac Okoro, with a sprinkling of Dean Wade mixed in. All three are back in Cleveland, along with Max Strus, who has started 41 playoff games over each of the last two postseasons.

LeVert and Wade are probably out of the mix to start. LeVert has found a really good role coming off the Cavaliers bench. He gets to handle the ball a lot in that role, and can kind of do his thing as a primary option on the second unit. Wade isn’t really a small forward, and he might find far more usage as a backup big option. The Cavs are a little light behind Allen and Mobley, which could press Wade into option up front.

That leaves Okoro vs Strus. Okoro has the organizational cache. He’s been there for three years, he’s a slightly better defender (with the tools to be a much better defender) and he did make shots last year. But it’s that last part where things swing decidedly toward Strus.

Okoro has experience a steady upward climb in his shooting, going from 29% to 35% to 36.3% year over year. Strus, on the other hand, was at 41% and 35% from deep the last two seasons, on a volume well over double that of Okoro’s.

If the Cavs are hellbent on opening up the floor more, they’ll start Strus. He simply carries gravity that Okoro doesn’t. Defenses bend towards Strus, whereas they flex away from Okoro. If Cleveland stays with the status quo, and wants the better defender on the floor, they’ll stick with Okoro.

One last consideration: Strus came to Cleveland via a four-year, $62.3 million sign-and-trade. Okoro is in the final year of his rookie scale deal. Strus can fit on a roster featuring Okoro or not, but the contracts could be a sign that Cleveland is moving away from the former fifth overall pick.

Who wins the final roster spot? 

As of this writing, Cleveland has 14 players signed to standard contracts. They have four players battling in training camp for that final spot, assuming the Cavaliers fill it at all.

Of that group, Sharife Cooper might have a slight edge, and it’s got little to do with production. Instead, it’s about position.

Cooper is a point guard. As it stands right now, Cleveland is really light at the point guard position. Darius Garland is an All-Star-level guy, but there just isn’t a lot behind him.

Ricky Rubio remains away from the team, as he continues to work on a personal issue that arose over the summer. The Cavs have expressed support for Rubio and are giving him all the time and space he needs. That’s exactly the way it should be.

But that means someone has to step up behind Garland in the interim. Ty Jerome will get the first shot. He’s played as a point guard plenty in his career, even if he’s more of a combo guard. Considering guys like Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert will have the ball plenty when Jerome is on the floor, the fifth-year Virginia product should be just fine.

But that leaves the third point guard spot open. Craig Porter is on a two-way deal, and he’ll get the first crack at any available minutes. He was a Summer League standout, but had exactly one season of high-volume production at Wichita State. He’s got a lot to prove, and a lot of G League time is necessary.

And that brings us back to Cooper. He’s small and his NBA experience is negligible, but Cooper has stood out in the G League. If Cleveland needs someone until Rubio is back, converting Cooper to a standard non-guaranteed contract, is probably the way forward for some additional point guard depth.

Detroit Pistons

How do they get Ausar Thompson minutes? 

The Pistons are sending signs that this question could be resolved by opening night. Monty Williams seems likely to shoehorn Thompson into the rotation, including in a possible starting spot.

You read that right. Despite Detroit having a lot of varying talent on the wing, Thompson might start right out of the gate.

It was one preseason game, and one where some regulars were out, but Thompson started and held his own. He didn’t shoot it well, and that’s going to be a major question for him until it isn’t, but Thompson did a lot of everything else. He scored 12 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, dished out six assists and blocked a shot.

That production mirrored what Thompson did in four Summer League games. He also displayed that chaotic energy on defense, where he’s kind of everywhere all at once. That was also a carryover from Summer League.

But when games matter, is Thompson really going to start over established guys like Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks or Joe Harris? Is he going to leapfrog young players like Jaden Ivey or Isaiah Livers?

It seems like the answer is: kind of.

Bogdanovic is still going to play, and he’s probably going to start. Cade Cunningham has the most upside, but Bogdanovic is still Detroit’s best player. Burks is going to play, and there should be room for both him and Thompson in the rotation. What happens with Harris is really interesting. He’s the best pure shooter on the roster, and the Pistons can use that skill. But he’s on an expiring deal and probably not a part of the future in Detroit. If he’s out of the rotation to open the year, it wouldn’t be a surprise.

The Pistons are making noise about playing Ivey off the bench, despite the fact that he started 73 games as a rookie. Maybe it’s a way to make sure Ivey still gets on-ball reps with Cunningham back. Maybe it’s all subterfuge and he’ll start on opening night. For now, it’s something to watch. And Livers seems more like he’s in the frontcourt mix as a small-ball four than he is a part of the wing rotation.

Thompson is overflowing with upside. Detroit probably isn’t going to be very good this season. That combination necessitates him playing as much as he can handle. And it seems like the Pistons will make sure that happens.

Who gets the third two-way spot? 

We’ll keep this relatively short. Detroit has filled two of their two-way spots with undrafted Malcolm Cazalon and the returning Jared Rhoden. Both of those guys are wings, which makes for an interesting competition for the third two-way spot.

Buddy Boeheim is back after being on a two-way last year, but he’s another wing. Same is true of Stanley Umude, who did a 10-day run with Detroit last year. Tosan Evbuomwan is also in camp, and he’s a bigger wing, but he’s still another wing.

That kind of seems like the competition could be between big man Jontay Porter, who has done a few different NBA stints, and guard Zavier Simpson.

Porter still has some of that prospect tag attached to him. He’ll turn 24 in late-November, but there’s still intrigue with a near 7-footer who can step out and shoot it some, while rebounding and blocking shots on the other end.

Simpson is a G League veteran, and he was terrific in the minors last year. His lack of size seems to be all that is holding him back from landing a full NBA spot. If the Pistons want some additional point guard depth, Simpson would be nice to have on a two-way deal.

We don’t really have a prediction here. Evbuomwan is probably the most interesting player, given he’s still pretty unknown. Porter probably has the most upside, while Simpson is probably the most ready-to-contribute guy in the mix. Let the best man win.

Indiana Pacers

Who starts? 

We can ink Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner into the Pacers starting lineup. That means the poles are taken care of. In between the point and the center, everything seems to be up for grabs.

Last season, the Pacers went small around Turner. They played a mixture of guards and wings, with Buddy Hield, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith the most common starters. All three of those players are back, along with last season’s sixth man Bennedict Mathurin. And the Pacers added Bruce Brown to that mix in free agency.

Indiana also added bigger options in trading for Obi Toppin and drafting Jarace Walker. And that’s where things get interesting for Rick Carlisle.

Hield might be out of the mix to open the season. He requested a trade after extension talks broke down, and the Pacers are trying to accommodate him. Even if he’s still with the team to open the year, Hield might see his role reduced in favor of longer-term options.

This offseason, Maturin said the team told him he would start this season. We’ll take him at his word, and plug him into one spot. Considering Mathurin is very much a swing player, that leaves a backcourt and possible frontcourt spot open.

It seems likely that Indiana will be a bit more traditional this season, because they have the talent to do so. That’s why we’re leaning towards Brown and Toppin joining Haliburton, Turner and Mathurin in the starting five.

Brown was given $45 million this summer ($22 million guaranteed). That doesn’t mean he’s a lock to start, but it doesn’t not mean that either. In a more compelling case, Brown’s mix of defense, on- and off-ball offensive ability and his shooting are a terrific fit with the Pacers other starters.

Toppin is the best four on the roster right now. Maybe Walker overtakes him, but that’s a down-the-line thing. Toppin’s entire profile has been screaming for a bigger role throughout his three years in New York. That was never going to come with Julius Randle entrenched in front of him, so Toppin is now in Indiana. Given Haliburton’s excitement about the addition, we feel good saying Toppin will claim the fifth starting spot, and will give Indiana a real four in the lineup.

None of this is to suggest that Nembhard (who the Pacers love), Nesmith (who finally stayed healthy last year) and Walker (who the team gushes over) won’t get their chances. Indiana remains high on all of them, and they’ll all factor in, whether they start or not.

Related: How do the Pacers get Jarace Walker enough minutes? 

Indiana acquired Obi Toppin after drafting Jarace Walker, but that was about seizing a good buy-low opportunity more than it was anything about the rookie forward. Talk to anyone with the Pacers and they’ll inevitably express a great deal of excitement about Walker.

That means he’s going to get on the floor. But how is the question. Indiana has a lot of NBA guys on their roster. If they don’t trade Buddy Hield, there are about 12 guys who could be in the mix for real minutes. That’s a lot of guys, and Walker is going to have to beat out several of them to play.

On one hand, if Toppin starts, Walker looks like the ideal backup power forward. And “backup” is sort of in name only here, as they could very well split the playing time at the four pretty evenly. If Rick Carlisle stays with multiple wings and guards around Myles Turner, things could get a little messy for both Toppin and Walker to play.

Neither is a real option at center. Walker could feature in some lineups on the wing, but he profiles as a smaller four right now. But it doesn’t really matter all that much, Walker’s talent is going to get him on the floor eventually.

As stated above, Toppin is our pick to start next to Turner up front. But if Toppin doesn’t grab that role fully, then Walker might snatch it from him. His shot is shaky, but Walker is ready to do everything else. In a system where the Pacers want to run, his grab-and-go ability will be as prized as Toppin’s ability to fill the lane in transition.

Look for Walker to get eased in somewhat. But that doesn’t mean a small number of minutes. It’s more about him not starting right away. Starting might eventually come, but the Pacers prized rookie forward is going to force his way on the floor no matter what.

Milwaukee Bucks

Who is the backup point guard? 

If your biggest offseason question is about a 15-minute-a-night backup, you’re probably in pretty good shape. And the Bucks are certainly in pretty great shape. Yet, a pre-trade question still remains a valid one.

Damian Lillard is going to start at point guard. He’ll probably play somewhere around 33 minutes a night. That’s less than he’s played in recent years, but Milwaukee has big goals and they tend to not put too much on their key guys in the regular season.

Behind Lillard, as it was behind Jrue Holiday, is a question. Prior to the trade, the Bucks would likely have swung Grayson Allen over to the on-ball role behind Holiday. But both of them went out in the trade for Lillard, leaving the backup point guard just as big of a question.

Milwaukee did well to sign Cameron Payne after the trade, and he’ll clearly get the first shot at the backup role. But he’s coming off two shaky seasons in a row, after an outstanding first full year with the Phoenix Suns. Payne hasn’t shot it or finished quite as well over the last couple of years, which was an issue when the Suns had to press him into a bigger role with Chris Paul out.

Still, Payne will probably be fine behind Lillard…when he’s available. If Payne has injuries again, that’s where things get really questionable for the Bucks. There isn’t another proven point guard on the roster.

We aren’t going to overreact, because Milwaukee can run most of their offense through Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton if they need to. At that point, they can stick any capable shooter on the floor, and it’s probably fine.

The biggest issue could actually be defensively. Holiday was a top-tier defender, and the Bucks don’t have that anymore. Lillard’s offense will make up for any defensive drop-off. But behind him, they don’t even have that terrific change-of-pace guy, as Jevon Carter left in free agency.

Maybe Marjon Beauchamp puts it all together and snags a rotation role. Lindell Wigginton, TyTy Washington and Omari Moore are really interesting guys, but being on two-way deals limits how much they can play. This space is a big fan of A.J. Green, but he’s not really an on-ball stopper. And Andre Jackson Jr. is really fun, but that’s asking a lot of a rookie wing.

Much like with questions we asked of other contenders, we’ll leave this one in the “Not a problem until it is” category. But it’s still worth monitoring.

Related: Will Marjon Beauchamp see real minutes? 

Marjon Beauchamp was as advertised a rookie. The size and athleticism show up regularly, but he wasn’t ready for real minutes on a contender.

As a second-year player, the Bucks might need Beauchamp to be a lot more ready.

Milwaukee’s wing and guard rotations were hit this offseason through free agent departures and trades. That’s left some openings for guys to step in. The Bucks would love for Beauchamp to snag a rotation role this year.

Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton are assured of rotation minutes. Middleton will start when he plays, and Connaughton may grab the fifth starter spot that opened up from the Damian Lillard trade. Malik Beasley could start instead of Connaughton, and he’s going to play a lot either as a starter or off the bench.

From there, it’s a lot more up in the air. Jae Crowder seems more like a four than a wing at this point, and that’s fine for what the Bucks need him to do. That’s especially true, as Bobby Portis is the primary backup center.

All of that leaves Beauchamp battling guys like A.J. Green, Andre Jackson Jr. and maybe Chris Livingston for minutes. Green has the best standout skill of that group with his shooting, but it’s still a very close competition.

The guess here is that it’s Beauchamp vs Jackson for the backup wing minutes that are available. If Beauchamp can shoot it a little better, and that’s a big if, he’s probably got the advantage. He did log 701 NBA minutes last season, where Jackson is coming in as a rookie.

But Jackson has an intriguing mix of all-around skills. If Jackson could shoot, we’d lock him in for backup wing minutes. But it’s that lack of a shot that puts him in competition with Beauchamp.

It’s not make-or-break time for Beauchamp by any means. But he did just turn 23 and isn’t exactly a super young prospect anymore. He’s got this season plus two more on his rookie scale deal, so there’s still a little time. But if Beauchamp doesn’t seize a rotation role this season, Milwaukee might need to start thinking about him in terms of being a tradable piece to fill that rotation hole that he couldn’t.

The NBA preseason is here! Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so. We’ve already covered the Atlantic Division, Southeast Division and Southwest Division teams.

Golden State Warriors

Will Chris Paul start? 

This is one of the most fascinating questions in the entire NBA. The Warriors acquiring Chris Paul was somewhat of a no-brainer. They turned Jordan Poole’s long-term deal into a pseudo-expiring contract that is far more tradable. But before a trade comes, if one even does, Paul is going to play for Golden State. But will he start or come off the bench?

It’s way too easy to assume either option is the answer. Paul has always been a starter. He’s played in 1,214 regular season games and 149 playoff games. Paul has been on the floor for the opening tip for all 1,363 of them.

On the flip side, the Warriors have a productive starting five that is pretty well-balanced positionally and with offense and defense. Why would Steve Kerr mess with that?

In the short-term, it seems like this question will be answered by Draymond Green being out. Green suffered an ankle sprain that may keep him out for the start of the regular season. That opens the door to avoid some awkwardness, at least early on.

But Green will be back. Then what?

Many have looked at Kerr’s regular starting lineup and decided that Kevon Looney is the least-accomplished Warrior and decided he’d go to the bench. But Looney is easily Golden State’s best rebounder, probably their best night-to-night interior defender (Green doesn’t bring it every night in the regular season anymore) and arguably their best screener. Shuttling him to the bench puts a ton of pressure on Green to do a lot on defense.

So, maybe Paul goes to the bench? That’d be a different role for him, but others have accepted such a transition as their career has gone along. Dwyane Wade, who is one of Paul’s good friends, came off the bench for the majority of each of his final two seasons. And he did it at roughly the same age Paul is now. And, finally, Wade didn’t exactly do it on a title contender in his final season, which made his sacrifice even more noteworthy.

Paul could help stabilize bench units, which have often bled points and leads during the Warriors title-contention run. And it would help Kerr keep Paul’s minutes in check, which should hopefully keep him fresher and productive into the springtime, when games matter most.

Either option will require a heavy dose of buy-in. From an established Warrior or from Paul. Maybe Golden State is at the point where someone will always be out with some sort of malady. That would also take care of the issue, without anyone having to be benched. But if this season goes the way the Warriors want, they’ll need everyone available. At that point, someone will have to sacrifice for the best of the team and a run at a title.

Will Brandin Podziemski play? 

Golden State’s bench has been a revolving door for several years now. Young players haven’t developed into rotation regulars as hoped for, while veteran signings have been pretty hit-or-miss. This season, the Warriors seem to have some pretty good options, especially on the wing. Gary Payton will see most of his minutes in an off-ball perimeter role. Moses Moody is knocking on the door of a bigger role. Cory Joseph has played off-ball quite a bit, and Jonathan Kuminga will see some minutes at the three.

Where does that leave rookie Brandin Podziemski? Probably on the bench, or playing for Santa Cruz in the G League. He’s got an interesting mix of all-around skills though. Despite not shooting it well at Summer League, Podziemski flashed his mix of scoring, rebounding and playmaking ability. He could bring a bit of everything off the bench.

But he’s a rookie and the Warriors have title aspirations. The key will be to work Podziemski in where they can. Golden State can’t continue to let former first-round picks sort of whither on the vine. They have to start developing some of them into real rotation players. Both Kuminga and Moody seem to be finally turning that corner, but that’s not a 100% thing. Former second overall pick James Wiseman never got there. Podziemski has skills that can help Golden State, but he needs to get a chance and to make the most of it. Otherwise, he’s going to be another guy that we’ll all just keep waiting on, like others before him.

LA Clippers

Are some veterans going to be out of the rotation? 

The Clippers have been lauded for their depth over the last few years. Most seasons started with it looking like LA had at least 10-12 guys who could play real rotation minutes. With injury and load management issues, the Clippers needed all of them too.

Now, things have started to swing in another direction. The Clippers increased Terance Mann’s role as last season went along, they added Bones Hyland for point guard depth at the trade deadline, and this summer the team traded for K.J. Martin to plus-up the frontcourt. The team also likes holdovers Brandon Boston Jr. and Amir Coffey quite a bit too.

Where does that leave vets like Nic Batum, Marcus Morris and Robert Covington? At least one of them, and probably two, aren’t going to see many minutes. Batum and Morris saw their roles lessened as the season went along, while Covington saw the fewest minutes he’s had in a healthy season since his rookie year.

With Clippers signaling that they won’t be nearly as aggressive with load managing their stars, minutes are going to be at a premium. If younger players are seeing those reserve minutes, the vets will be pushed to lesser roles.

Unless, of course, a James Harden trade saps LA of some of their depth. Then all bets are off and the rotation will need to be rebuilt on the fly.

Who is the backup point guard? 

The point guard position has been a messy one for the Clippers for a while now. Russell Westbrook came in during buyout season and stabilized the starting spot. But the minutes behind him remain a question.

Terance Mann has played a lot in the lead guard spot, but he seems ticketed for a bigger role in Ty Lue’s three-wing lineups alongside Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Bones Hyland would seemingly be the answer, but his role was fairly limited after LA acquired him at the trade deadline.

The guess here is that Hyland gets the first shot at playing behind Westbrook. The Clippers can use the early months of the season to evaluate Hyland’s play, and if they need to upgrade, that will be a trade deadline priority. Mann will probably see some on-ball reps too, because there’s a comfort level there with him.

And, like the above question, a Harden trade could throw all of this out of whack.

Los Angeles Lakers

Who is the fifth starter? 

The Lakers have four starting spots spoken for with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves and D’Angelo Russell inked in. The fifth spot offers a lot of options, not just with players, but with style of play too.

It’s no secret Davis doesn’t like playing center. That could lead to a second big starting games, even if almost everyone seems to recognize that Los Angeles is at their best with Davis at the five. If the Lakers go this way, Jarred Vanderbilt is an option, as is Christian Wood or possibly Jaxson Hayes. Vanderbilt started a lot for the Lakers after being acquired at the trade deadline. Wood was an established starter before a messy season in Dallas. And Hayes would be one of those “start, sub out five minutes in and doesn’t return” guys in each half.

If the Lakers go a little smaller, Rui Hachimura or Taurean Prince seem to have the leg up on the competition. Hachimura reportedly prepared this offseason as if he’d start. And the Lakers paid him like a starting option. Prince has a long history of starting, and he’d bring a little more shooting to the opening group, along with decent size. Either would be an acceptable option, with Hachimura probably ahead of Prince.

If the Lakers go a lot smaller, they could slide everyone up a position and open games with Gabe Vincent. That shifts Russell into even more of a scoring role, where he’s more comfortable. And Vincent is best option for defending opposing point guards on the roster.

Ultimately, this is going to come down to Darvin Ham finding balance for his players and lineups. There are a lot of options, and this might involve some experimentation before Ham finds the right mix.

Who settles in as the primary backup shooting guard? 

As much as the Lakers have options for their fifth starter, they don’t have a lot of depth in the backcourt. And that’s sort of funny, considering this team was so guard-heavy last season.

All of the options are relatively unproven. Cam Reddish is on team number four in five seasons. He’s never quite put it together enough to hold down a regular rotation role. Max Christie is heading into his second season. His rookie year was fairly ho-hum, but Christie was productive in the G League and terrific in Summer League. He could be poised for a breakout year.

The other options are rookies Jalen Hood-Schifino and Maxwell Lewis. Hood-Schifino has primarily been an on-ball player, and he’s a really iffy scorer and shooter. Lewis looks like he’s ready to score and shoot, but he’s in over his head with everything else. If either of these rookies is playing major minutes for the Lakers, they were either better than expected, or a lot went wrong for Los Angeles.

The guess here is that Reddish gets the first shot, simply because he’s the veteran option. But Christie looks like he has the best mix of offensive skills, along with being a helpful perimeter defender. Look for him to win the role before long.

Phoenix Suns

Who is the fifth starter? 

The Suns have four of their starters locked in with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic. The fifth spot is wide open, and it’s a key one.

Josh Okogie started the first preseason game and new coach Frank Vogel praised what he brings to the floor. In an opening group full of offense-first guys, Okogie can focus on defense and moving the ball. One challenge with starting Okogie is that the Suns end up being somewhat small. It’s not all that major of a problem, but it does task Durant with doing more as a pick-and-roll defender and on the interior. That could add wear and tear that Phoenix would rather avoid putting on him in the regular season.

If being that small proves to be a problem, Vogel could turn to Keita Bates-Diop to start. It went mostly unnoticed as he toiled for the unwatched Spurs, but Bates-Diop put up 51/39/79 shooting splits last season on decent volume. If that three-point shooting is even remotely real, the Suns got a steal for the veteran minimum.

Other options could include Yuta Watanabe, but his all-gas, no-brake energy is a huge plus off the bench. Nassir Little could be an option, as he’s played as a small four in the past. But he’ll need some time to settle in after being acquired right before camp started. Grayson Allen could also get a look, if the Suns really lean into the offense and want another ballhandler on the floor.

Bet on a mix between Okogie and Bates-Diop. They both provide defense, along with being content to play without the ball on offense. Those are desired skills, in a top-heavy lineup of offensive stars.

Who is the backup point guard? 

Phoenix is committed to playing without a pure point guard in the starting lineup. Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal have all been offensive hubs before, so that shouldn’t be a big problem. When Deandre Ayton was still with the Suns, it might have gotten tricky to make sure a bunch of score-first guys fed him enough touches. With Jusuf Nurkic, and his more-versatile skillset in town, that’s less of a worry.

Behind the openers, the Suns backup point guard spot remains in flux. Grayson Allen has played a decent amount on-ball, so he’ll be in the mix. Eric Gordon has primarily been an off-ball guy, but he could be in for a late-career expansion of his playmaking duties.

The best pure point guard option is Jordan Goodwin, who Phoenix did well to acquire in the Beal-Chris Paul swap. Goodwin fought his way to a standard contract by outplaying his two-way status. In a group of imperfect options, he’s the best point guard defender and the one with the most lead guard experience. Look for Goodwin to eventually emerge as a key rotation piece.

Sacramento Kings

How does the perimeter rotation shake out? 

The Kings are mostly running back last year’s highly successful group. Sacramento renegotiated-and-extended Domantas Sabonis, extended Harrison Barnes, and re-signed Trey Lyles and Alex Len. After breaking their playoff drought, the Kings prioritized continuity over flashy free agent additions.

The new faces in the rotation are both perimeter players. Sasha Vezenkov finally signed, after being drafted in 2017, and Chris Duarte was acquired in a salary-dumping trade from the Indiana Pacers. Both players should factor in immediately in helping to beef up the Kings wing group.

Vezenkov will likely form a three-forward rotation with Barnes and second-year stud Keegan Murray. All three players are relatively interchangeable, and each can play in tandem with the others. Vezenkov is NBA-ready with his shooting and scoring, so he’ll play a big role for the Kings this season.

Duarte will swing between the forward and guard spots. He’ll give Mike Brown a bigger option in the backcourt behind starter Kevin Huerter than he had last season. And if Sacramento downsizes and tries to spread things out, Duarte can slide up and play at the three. There are bench unit possibilities that feature Vezenkov, Duarte, Malik Monk and Davion Mitchell that have to make Brown giddy.

One last note: The additions of Vezenkov and Duarte probably don’t leave a lot of forward minutes leftover for Trey Lyles. That means Lyles primary minutes could come from backing up Sabonis. That’s probably fine, as Lyles can certainly handle that role as a stretch-five option.

Related: Who will be the backup center? 

This is somewhat of a first-NBA-world problem. Which is pretty cool for the Kings, if you think about where they’ve been for years. But it’s still something Mike Brown will have to sort out.

As mentioned above, Trey Lyles will probably have to play a good amount at the five, if the Kings are going to make sure to leave plenty of minutes to work in both Sasha Vezenkov and Chris Duarte. Lyles saw about 40% of his minutes at center last year, and that feels like it will increase this season. On nights when Sacramento needs to go bigger, he’ll swing over to power forward, but this year’s roster construction should see him playing center more than ever.

Alex Len re-emerged late last season as Domantas Sabonis’ primary backup. After playing mostly garbage time for the first five months of the season, Len saw 13 minutes per game behind Sabonis over the season’s final few weeks. He then featured regularly in the team’s first-round playoff series too. Len never took more than five shots in a single game, but he averaged 5.4 rebounds and 1.4 blocks to close the regular season.

JaVale McGee was brought in after he was bought out by the Dallas Mavericks. McGee is heading into Season 16 and he wasn’t very productive in Dallas last year. But he’s got a good relationship with Brown and could have one more solid season of backup play in him. If nothing else, he’s a good locker room addition for the Kings.

Look for Lyles to get the bulk of the minimal backup minutes behind Sabonis (the Kings star plays about 34-35 minutes per game). McGee will probably get the veteran nod early on, when Sacramento needs a bigger option. But Len will be heard from before the season ends. He was too productive be relegated back to a deep bench role.

As we approach the offseason, Spotrac projects contracts & destinations for our Top 10 MLB Free Agents, including 7 pitchers, 2 position players, & 1 who can do a lot of everything.

RELATED: 2024 MLB Free Agents

1. Shohei Ohtani (DH/SP, 29, LAA)

   Just how much (if any) will the UCL tear and subsequent surgery reduce Ohtani’s free agent contract? Let’s put it this way. If Shohei Ohtani was set to hit the market as just a position player this winter, his starting point would be Aaron Judge’s 9 year, $360M contract, which represented 17.1% of this year’s tax threshold. If we adjust that for the 2024 figure ($237M), this brings us to $366M over 9 years, or nearly $41M per year.
   
   Gerrit Cole’s 9 year, $324M free agent contract with the Yankees back in 2020 represented 17.3% of that respective tax threshold. If we adjust for 2024, that means $369M over 9 years. If we lop off one year of that (because he won’t be available to pitch in 2024), it’s $328M for 8 years, or $41M per year.
   
   In other words, if a Cy Young pitcher were to hit the open market this winter (see below), there’s a world where his agent could point to Gerrit Cole’s deal, and request 9 years, $369M in 2024.
   
   And if a two-time league MVP were to hit the open market this winter, there’s a world where his agent could point to Aaron Judge’s deal, and request 9 years, $366M as a floor.
   
   Is Shohei Ohtani going to score $735M over the next 9 years? Of course not. But we can’t argue that there isn’t data to show that he could conceivably request it. The only logical assumption we can make here is that 6-10 teams will make significant offers, and the only real question is: will the Dodgers match them all?

   Prediction: 12 years, $552M, Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Blake Snell (SP, 30, SD)

   Talk about peaking at the right time, Snell turned a slow start in San Diego into a Cy Young performance heading toward the open market. He’s worth plenty more than the $45.5M he reeled in over the past 5 seasons.

   Prediction: 5 years, $115M, Baltimore Orioles

3. Aaron Nola (SP, 30, PHI)

   The production dipped in 2023 after a rock solid 2022 campaign (4th in Cy Young voting), but Nola now has over 650 strikeouts across the last 3 seasons, each of which he made 32 starts. He and Blake Snell should be eying very similar compensation this winter.

   Prediction: 6 years, $140M, Arizona Diamondbacks

4. Cody Bellinger (OF, 28, CHC)

   The Cubs don’t appear overly motivated to bring back Bellinger with any sort of long-term guarantee, but that shouldn’t stop him from finding a great contract this winter. After compiling a combined 1.0 WAR over the past three seasons, Bellinger broke back out with a 4.4 output, including 29 doubles, 26 homers, 20 stolen bases, and an .881 OPS. Is he fixed for good?

   Prediction: 5 years, $110M, San Francisco Giants

5. Matt Chapman (3B, 30, TOR)

   Chapman starting 2023 on a torrid pace, leading us all to believe he would blow past his 2022 production and post career highs. That didn’t end up being the case, and Chapman now enters the open market with at least a little bit of doubt attached to him. Still, he’s a power hitting, Gold Glove caliber 3rd baseman in an offseason where hardly any are available.

   Prediction: 6 years, $100M, Los Angeles Dodgers

6. Josh Hader (RP, 29, SD)

   After a rocky 2022, Hader rounded back into elite form heading toward free agency for the first time. Edwin Diaz put a new flag in the reliever market ground this winter, penning a $20.4M per year, $102M total value contract in NY. Will Hader approach or surpass these numbers? Mathematically he’s a $17.5M player in our system.

   Prediction: 5 years, $90M, Chicago Cubs

7. Clayton Kershaw (SP, 35, LAD)

   It’s been a steady dose of 1 year contracts for Kershaw and the Dodgers since 2021, and a steady dose of maintained, elite pitching production as well. If Kershaw (24 starts, 9.4 K/9, 177 ERA+) wants to continue his career, the Dodgers will almost certainly oblige. He’s a whopping $37M player in our system, but following the recent breadcrumbs here, a 1 year, $24M contract should be about right.

   Prediction: 1 year, $23M + incentives, Los Angeles Dodgers

8. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP, 25, Japan)

   He’s winning every pitching award possible in Japan, posting ridiculous numbers in 2023 (23 games, 169 Ks, 1.21 ERA)  in what is largely believed to be his swan song season there. Every MLB team is in on this one.

   Prediction: 5 years, $85M, New York Mets

9. Sonny Gray (SP, 33, MIN)

   After what seemed like a few declining seasons in Cincinnati, Gray posted back to back elite years for the Twins, and is a large reason for their latest AL Central Division Title. He’ll be 34 years old by the time Spring Training approaches, so this won’t be a blockbuster deal, but he’s certainly earned another pay day in this league.

   Prediction: 3 years, $66M, Minnesota Twins

10. Jordan Montgomery (SP, 30, TEX)

    In 11 starts for Texas this year, Montgomery posted a 2.79 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, and a 2.1 WAR. He and Nathan Eovaldi became the goto arms for this team down the stretch, and at this point, it’s hard to imagine them moving forward without him in 2024 and beyond.

    Prediction: 6 years, $110M, Texas Rangers

Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts pulled a complete 180 this week in agreeing to a 3 year, $42M extension through the 2026 season. The deal puts a cap on a summer full of twists and turns that had many believing (myself included), that the only ending for this relationship would be a breakup. But with the Colts showing promise early in the season, and new QB1 Anthony Richardson showing potential to be an instant hit, Indy & Taylor saw a clearer future together.

The following contains a number by number look at the contract breakdown for Jonathan Taylor’s new deal.

Related: VIEW THE COMPLETE CONTRACT

The Total Value

Taylor’s 3 year extension now means a chance at $46.304M over the next 4 seasons (through 2026). How many active running backs have a contract that runs through 2026? 18. Of those, how many aren’t on a rookie contract? 16. Taylor joins only Miles Sanders as veteran running backs with a contract that covers the next 4 seasons.

For reference here, Miles Sanders secured $25.4M over 4 seasons, while youngster Bijan Robinson’s slotted rookie contract carries $21.9M through 2026. 

The Average Annual Value

At $14M per year (a number some wondered if running backs would ever hit or exceed again), Taylor now slots into the 3-hole in terms of active running back AAVs. When adjusting based on practical cash flow, this becomes a 3 year, $33.3M contract - $11.1M per year for practical purposes.

When I was prompted to propose a “fair” deal for Taylor earlier this spring by a few third-party outlets, this exact $33M over 3 year breakdown was determined to be our value landing spot.

The Guarantee Structure

Taylor secures $19,347,555 fully guaranteed at signing, consisting of $785,555 in remaining 2023 salary, $8,314,000 of 2024 compensation, & a $10,248,000 million signing bonus.

If these numbers seem a little wonky, remember that this deal was signed before Week 5 of a season, so there’s a proration occurring with the 2023 salary. Taylor’s base salary dropped from $4.304M down to a minimum $1.01M for the rest of the season. So, he earned $956,444 for his 4 weeks on the PUP list, and will now earn $785,555 for the next 14 weeks. The latter is the only portion we include in the “guarantee” metrics of this contract.

From there, $7,152,445 of his 2025 base salary will become fully guaranteed on March 17th, 2024. That amount is guaranteed for injury at the time of signing. This “early guarantee trigger” makes $26.5M of this contract guaranteed for practical purposes.

Guarantees at Signing (Active Veteran RBs)
1. Christian McCaffrey, $30M
2. Alvin Kamara, $22.8M
3. Jonathan Taylor, $19.3M

Full Guarantees (Active Veteran RBs)
1. Christian McCaffrey, $38.1M
2. Alvin Kamara, $33.8M
3. Jonathan Taylor, $26.5M

If we told you that back to back franchise tags in 2024 & 2025 for a running back likely calculates to just north of $25M, and that Taylor has now secured $26.5M guaranteed, with a chance to earn $33.3M through that time period, we can all probably agree that this is a win for Taylor.

The Cash Flow

We’ve referenced a lot of this already, but to add more detail to it, Taylor will now secure $11.99M in 2023, $7.686M more than he was previously slated to earn.

The cash drops down to $8.314M in 2024, but all of it is fully guaranteed - including the $510,000 of per game active bonus.

Taylor should (will) secure $13M in 2025, with 55% of it becoming fully guaranteed next March. A $1.02M per game active bonus could reduce his compensation by $60,000 per week missed.

Finally, another $13M is available in 2026, though none of it is guaranteed, and the same $1.02M per game active bonus exists to protect the team a bit.

Jonathan Taylor’s Cash Flow
2023: $11.99M (+$7.686M)
2024: $8.314M
2025: $13M
2026: $13M

The Cap Flow

Taylor’s new deal keeps his 2023 cap hit neutral for the current season. The reduction in base salary plus the proration from the new signing bonus all added back up to the exact $5.1M number that previously sat on the Colts’ books.

Taylor’s salary cap hit rises to $10.876M for 2024, which should be around $1.5M less than what a franchise tag would have accounted for next March.

In 2025, the cap figure jumps to $15.5M, which likely won’t even represent 6% of the league salary cap that season. A near $12M base salary can be converted to signing bonus in order to reduce this figure should the Colts see the need to.

Jonathan Taylor’s Cap Flow
2023: $5,117,482
2024: $10,876,000
2025: $15,562,000
2026: $15,562,000

Concluding Thoughts

Without getting down the rabbit hole too much (plenty of time to do that on the podcast), this is a win-win outcome. Anyone assessing the best landing spots for Jonathan Taylor in a potential trade always found themselves back to Indianapolis, realizing just how good of a fit this player is for this offense - RIGHT NOW.

The Colts bent a little to go north of the franchise tag cash flow, protecting themselves against $2.55M of this contract with per game active bonuses. The early vesting trigger on the $7.15M of 2025 base salary is a strong get for Taylor here, as the Colts could have leaned into the devaluation of this position to make that a March 2025 trigger, instead of in March 2024.

Is there a world where the Colts bow out of this contract after 2024, pay him the $7.1M 2025 salary as a parting gift, and take the near $6M of cap savings instead? Of course. But it’s unlikely (for now).

Jonathan Taylor should have no trouble seeing 3 years, $33.304M out of this contract through the 2025 season, when he’ll be a position-friendly 26 years old still. And if he remains healthy & productive, a small restructure to his 2026 salary should keep him in the fold for at least another year thereafter, especially if the Colts have a $70M per year contract extension to negotiate with their QB1 at that point.

The NBA’s headline-grabbing offseason transactions happen from late-June through mid-July. The action starts just before the NBA Draft and continues until most of the major free agents are off the board by mid-July.

After that, attention turns to the start of the NFL and college football seasons, fantasy drafts, the start of the Premier League season and MLB postseason races. But NBA teams don’t stop working.

No, this isn’t about the dragged out “Dame’s of Our Lives” saga that only resolved days ahead of training camp. Nor is it about James Harden sitting out as the Philadelphia 76ers begin training camp.

This is about the hundreds of transactions for players you’ve rarely heard of. This is about how teams stock their training camp rosters, while also beefing up the rosters of their G League affiliate teams.

This is about Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10 contracts. This about those on the fringes of the NBA. Veterans trying to hang on for one more run, young guys looking for a chance and everyone in between.

What are Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10 contracts?

Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10 contracts are commonly referred to as “summer contracts” or “training camp contracts”. These players are being brought in to provide competition in training camp, to give coaches some extra bodies for drills and scrimmages, and sometimes to prove they are worthy of a regular season roster spot.

Both Exhibit 9 and Exhibit 10 contracts are one-year, fully non-guaranteed contracts. (A team could technically sign a player who was from another team, or from outside of the NBA, to a four-year, maximum contract on a summer contract (not an Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 deal), but that’s never happened and will likely never happen for many reasons.) In addition, they do not count against the salary cap or the luxury tax. They are very much “make good” deals in every sense of the word.

If a player proves worthy of sticking around, teams have a few options. We’ll cover the uniqueness of an Exhibit 10 contract in a moment, because it has some different parameters around it.

If a team wants to keep a player on an Exhibit 9 deal, the simplest process is to keep them on the roster for opening night. At that point, the player’s contract converts from an Exhibit 9 contract to a standard non-guaranteed contract. It begins to count against the salary cap and the luxury tax, just like any other standard contract. If the team wants to guarantee the deal, they can do so at any time. Otherwise, the contract will become fully guaranteed on the league-wide guarantee date of January 10. (In reality, contracts become fully guaranteed on January 7, because players have to clear waivers by January 10 to avoid their deals becoming fully guaranteed. Thus, the last day to waive a player on a non-guaranteed deal is actually January 7. Aren’t date-based technicalities fun?)

If a team keeps a player from an Exhibit 9 contract for the full season, after it converts to a standard deal, that player is then a free agent following the season. If eligible, the team can issue them a qualifying offer to make the player a restricted free agent. Otherwise, they become an unrestricted free agent.

Let’s say a player looks so good that the team wants to keep them long-term. Options for a guy on an Exhibit 9 deal are somewhat limited. They can do the process above, but that only converts the deal to a one-year contract. If a team wants to risk it, they can waive the player from their Exhibit 9 deal and hope that they clear waivers. At that point, the player would be a free agent and the team can sign them to whatever type of contract they have available to them via cap space or via an exception.

What is specific about an Exhibit 9 contract?

An Exhibit 9 contract includes a provision that protects the player against injury while under that contract. If a player is injured while on an Exhibit 9 deal, the team is responsible for paying that player $15,000 (this is up from $6,000 in the prior CBA). That $15,000 does hit the salary cap and luxury tax as a form of dead money charge, upon the player being waived.

Lastly, teams can’t sign more than six players to an Exhibit 9 contract at any given time.

What is specific about an Exhibit 10 contract?

An Exhibit 10 contract is unique in that it has ties to the G League. Everything works the same as laid out above, with a few key differences.

A player on an Exhibit 10 contract can be converted to a two-way contract, provided that player is eligible to play on a two-way deal. (In order to be two-way eligible, a player must have three years of service or less. If they have four years of service, they have to have missed an entire season of games in those first four seasons. Note: This is years of service, not the year the player is currently in. A year of service isn’t earned until after the current season completes.)

Players who sign Exhibit 10 contracts are also eligible for a bonus if they play for the NBA team’s G League affiliate after being waived. For the 2023-24 season, that bonus can range from $5,000 to $75,000. (The maximum amount will increase by the same percentage as the salary cap does for future years. This was changed in the current CBA from being a set amount in the previous CBA.) In order to receive this bonus, a player must report to and remain with the G League affiliate for a period of no less than 60 days.

The most common process for a player on an Exhibit 10 contract to stick on the regular season NBA roster is to be converted to a two-way deal. However, teams can undertake a series of transactions if they want to get one of these players on a long-term standard deal without exposing the player to a waiver claim.

In this case, a team can convert the player to a two-way contract, then from their two-way contract they can sign the player to a long-term standard deal. Although the Exhibit 10 deal and the following two-way contract would both be terminated, the player is not exposed to waivers during this process of conversions/signings.

A team can also convert an Exhibit 10 contract directly to a standard contract, as was laid out above. In this case the deal becomes a one-year, non-guaranteed minimum contract. The same guarantee dates and process exist, as laid out above.

The deadline for converting an Exhibit 10 contract to a two-way deal or a standard deal are ahead of the regular season.

Like an Exhibit 9 or a summer contract, an Exhibit 10 contract does not count against the salary cap or the luxury tax.

Does anyone make a team from these deals?

The answer to this question used to be no. It was very rare to see a player make a team after being on a summer contract/training camp deal. With the advent of two-way contracts, conversions to two-way deals became a fairly common occurrence.

However, in recent years, several veteran players have played their way off their camp deal and made a regular season roster. The most famous example of this is probably Dwight Howard, who made the 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers after starting on an Exhibit 9 contract. Howard was then a big part of the Lakers winning the 2020 NBA Finals.

How many players are currently on Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 contracts?

As of this writing, there are 95 players on rosters that are currently signed to an Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 contract. Several other players have already been signed and waived that were on Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 deals. That brings the total number to well over 100 of these deals already this offseason. There are likely to be several more of these sign-and-waive type of transactions, as it’s how teams regularly provide players with bonuses for joining their G League affiliate after the NBA preseason. (Note: Even if a player is playing for a G League affiliate after an Exhibit 10 contract, the NBA team has no claim to that player. They are considered an NBA free agent and able to sign with any team.)

Some notable veteran players that are currently signed to an Exhibit 9 or Exhibit 10 contract include Rudy Gay and Rodney McGruder (Golden State Warriors), Harry Giles III (Brooklyn Nets), Romeo Langford (Utah Jazz), Mac McClung (Orlando Magic), Lamar Stevens (Boston Celtics) and Edmond Sumner (Charlotte Hornets).

It’s a good bet that at least a few of those players will have their contract converted and will be on a standard NBA contract on opening night.

The NBA preseason is right around the corner. Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so. We’ve already covered the Southeast Division and Southwest Division teams.

Boston Celtics

Who are the starters? 

Boston has a top-six that rivals or bests almost every other team in the NBA. That’s hardly a problem, but it does leave Joe Mazzulla deciding who goes to the bench when everyone is available to play. While many other coaches would love to have such troubles, it can be a tricky equation with egos, salaries and lineup balance all in play.

Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis are all locks to start. Jrue Holiday is about a 99.9% lock to start. That leaves the last spot down to Al Horford or Derrick White. Two drastically different players, resulting in some drastically different styles of plays and different rotations.

Horford has come off the bench in exactly 10 of the 1,013 NBA games that he’s played. Four times were in his rookie season with the Atlanta Hawks and the other six times were during the one disastrous season Horford spent with the Philadelphia 76ers. The veteran big man has started all 340 regular season games he’s played with the Celtics, and all 89 playoff games.

Derrick White’s role in Boston has yo-yoed back and forth between starting and coming off the bench. He was mostly a reserve during the Celtics 2022 NBA Finals run. Last season, White started in 70 of his 82 regular season games and 16 of his 20 playoff games.

That logic says White probably goes to the bench, but that might be too simple of an answer.

Boston’s big man rotation is pretty thin behind Porzingis and Horford. Right now, Luke Kornet (who the Celtics believe in as a regular season guy for 15-20 minutes per game) and newly-added Wenyen Gabriel are the primary backup bigs. As we learned last season, Mazzulla’s preferred rotation only has room for three bigs. So, it’ll probably be Porzingis, Horford and Kornet most nights.

We also learned that Mazzulla loves to play five-out. If he can start two ball-hawking, playmaking guards in Holiday and White, alongside his star wings in Brown and Tatum, with Porzingis pulling opposing bigs away from the paint, Mazzulla is going to do it. He’s at least going to go that grouping a lot, even if it doesn’t start.

Against certain teams, like the Milwaukee Bucks or Philadelphia 76ers, Mazzulla may lean on Horford to start, with White coming off the bench. Horford has historically been Boston’s best matchup for Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid. And the next two best guys to guard those two big stars, Grant Williams and Marcus Smart, are no longer in green.

The reality is that the Celtics will say the typical “We have six starters” sort of stuff. Maybe Horford and White share the fifth spot, with White starting on the nights that Horford sits. The big man isn’t subject to the NBA’s new resting policy, and he’s already at the point where he doesn’t play back-to-back sets.

The guess here is that this remains pretty fluid. And a non-guess is that both Horford and White understand the goal is to win a title. They’ll sacrifice starting if that’s what it takes to achieve that goal.

Related: Is there enough off the bench? 

Boston’s depth was pretty well sapped this summer. They traded away a starter in Marcus Smart, a swing starter/reserve in Rob Williams, the Sixth Man of the Year in Malcolm Brogdon and versatile backup big Grant Williams.

That’s a lot of talent headed out the door.

The Celtics believe that Payton Pritchard is ready for a bigger role as an every-night backup point guard. He’s been a knockdown shooter throughout his career, is a developing playmaker and he’s a competitive defender, despite a lack of size.

Sam Hauser returns in his designated shooter role. But Hauser also held up remarkably well on defense. And by the end of last season, he was showing the ability to make something happen off the dribble against hard closeouts.

As we covered above, Luke Kornet and Wenyen Gabriel will be the third and fourth bigs. That’s probably a step ahead of where they’d ideally be slotted in a rotation, but Boston can make do.

After that, the Celtics will be hoping that someone emerges out of Oshae Brissett, Dalano Banton, Svi Mykhailiuk, Lamar Stevens and rookie Jordan Walsh. All bring a different mix of skills, and over the course of a long regular season, all will probably have opportunities to contribute.

Whoever ends up as Boston’s sixth man will be very good, and will bring starter-level production. It’s important to find another four or five guys to contribute throughout 82 games to keep Joe Mazzulla from having to run the starters into the ground. Keep an eye on Brad Stevens using his $6.2 million TPE from the Grant Williams trade to bring in some additional help by the trade deadline.

Brooklyn Nets

Who is the starting point guard? 

On its face, this seems to be a pretty easy answer: Spencer Dinwiddie. But things are rarely that simple, especially when Ben Simmons is involved.

Simmons is full-go for training camp after playing just 100 games over the last three seasons. Simmons also recently said that he’s a point guard, no matter how much people keep trying to make him everything but a lead playmaker.

Thus, the question of who starts.

Dinwiddie started all 26 of his games for the Nets after being acquired at the trade deadline. He’s also got a long history with the team from his previous stint in Brooklyn. Ultimately, Dinwiddie is the safer option. He’s been relatively durable, and he’s productive, if somewhat inefficient.

But Simmons still has that star upside. After the last two messy seasons, it’s easy to forget that Simmons was a three-time All-Star with the 76ers. He was also the NBA’s most versatile defender, equally as good at guarding all five positions. And despite the lack of a jump shot, Simmons was a top-tier playmaker and could still provide some points too.

If that guy remains in there somewhere, Simmons unlocks a whole new level for the Nets. Imagine the havoc a trio of Simmons, Mikal Bridges and Nic Claxton could wreak on opposing offenses?

The guess here is that Dinwiddie starts, but by the holidays, Simmons takes over. If Simmons hasn’t won the job back by then, he’s probably either hurt or simply doesn’t have it anymore. At that point, Brooklyn has to decide what to do with the $78.2 million he’s owed this season and next.

Who starts at forward? 

Assuming Cam Johnson’s hamstring injury isn’t serious, and it doesn’t seem to be, Jacque Vaughn has an interesting decision to make at the forward position. Johnson is a for-sure starter. That leaves the other spot down to Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O’Neale. Finney-Smith started all 26 games he played for the Nets after the trade deadline, while O’Neale moved to a bench role.

Seems like Finney-Smith will start, and that’s probably how it will go. But O’Neale has historically been a better shooter, and this starting group is a bit light on shooting. Defensively, Finney-Smith has a bit more size, but the two are fairly comparable. So, it might not be quite as cut-and-dry as it seems.

There’s also a slight chance that Simmons starts, and Dinwiddie moves to an off-ball role. That would likely push both Mikal Bridges and Johnson to the starting forward roles. That makes things a little messy for the bench forward rotation, but it could be a way for Vaughn to get the most playmaking on the floor.

The bet here is that Finney-Smith starts, but O’Neale is heavily involved. Maybe, and it’s a big maybe, Dinwiddie moves back to the off-ball role (in which he was quite good with Dallas), and Simmons starts alongside him, with Bridges and Johnson as the forwards. But that’s probably a pretty far down-the-line thing, if ever.

New York Knicks

Who is the backup power forward? 

The last three seasons Julius Randle has averaged 37.6, 35.3 and 35.5 minutes per game. He’s been pretty durable too, playing in 71, 72 and 77 games.

So, Randle’s backup doesn’t exactly have a major role. But it is still a question that needs answered. Especially if Randle was to miss time for any reason.

In the regular season, it seems likely that player will be Josh Hart. Is that unconventional? Sure. Can Hart do it? He sure can.

Despite being a 6-foot-5 wing, Hart is one of the better rebounders in the NBA. Not just for his size, but period. Hart has a terrific nose for the ball, he’s got great timing and he’s extremely tough. He’s equally adept at digging out defensive boards, as he is sneaking in and stealing second chance opportunities.

Hart also plays bigger than his size on defense. He’s pretty rugged, which allows him to hold up against all but the biggest fours in the NBA. Considering the Knicks will also always have a true five on the floor, Hart will have that backside rim protection for the handful of guys who can overpower him inside. And playing Hart as the backup four eases the congestion of a very crowded wing rotation (more on that in a bit!).

But…and this is a big but…what if Randle goes down?

Tom Thibodeau embraced the unconventional-ness of Hart as a backup four, but he’s not likely to go that way if Randle can’t play. In the five games Randle missed at the end of last regular season, Thibodeau went with the departed Obi Toppin as the starter.

As it stands right now, the Knicks don’t have another option. New York has fooled around with some double-center looks, and that might be the answer if Randle was to miss a lot of time. But that puts a lot of added stress on the offense.

Let’s call this lack of a true backup four something that isn’t a problem…until it is. And that’s the best New York can hope for right now.

Related: What is the wing rotation? 

As mentioned above, the Knicks have a lot of wings. RJ Barrett and Quentin Grimes are entrenched as starters. Josh Hart will see plenty of wing minutes. Donte DiVincenzo was added this summer as a value signing for most of the Non-Taxpayer MLE. And, if that wasn’t already enough, Immanuel Quickley also plays some off-ball minutes too. Oh, and Evan Fournier is still on this roster too!

We can take Fournier out of the mix. New York would have to suffer a lot of injuries before Fournier would get back in the mix. As it stands, he remains a major trade chip to rebalance the roster, or as valuable salary-matching in a trade for a star.

But that leaves five guys for two spots. And Barrett is going to play somewhere between 33 and 35 minutes per game. So, it’s really one spot and a handful of other minutes. As we covered already, Hart will see a chunk of his minutes backing up Julius Randle at the four.

That should leave enough minutes for Donte DiVincenzo to see 20 or so minutes a night off the bench. And Quickley should get 28-30 minutes per game between the two guard spots.

It’s not really a problem for Tom Thibodeau, especially if he continues to ramp down his starter’s minutes this season, as he did last year. But there is a chance someone could get uncomfortable here, due to a lesser than ideal amount of playing time. At that point, it’s likely the Knicks front office has a decision to make on a roster-rebalancing trade.

Philadelphia 76ers

Who starts at guard if James Harden isn’t there? 

As of this writing, James Harden has skipped Media Day for the Sixers. It’s unknown if he’ll show up for training camp or not. If Harden truly holds out, he’s got a 30-day window to figure things out, or he might not be allowed to become a free agent after this season.

For this question, we’re going to take the approach that Harden isn’t a part of things for the Sixers this season. Whether it’s a holdout, the team just sits him out or Harden gets his long-awaited trade, we’ll assume he’s out of the picture.

That leaves the second guard spot next to Tyrese Maxey open. More often than not, De’Anthony Melton got that call when either Maxey or Harden missed time last season. He’s probably got the first crack at that position again this season too.

However, Nick Nurse is now coaching the 76ers and he might want to go in a different direction. Over the last couple of seasons with the Toronto Raptors, Nurse has run bigger lineups that featured one true guard. Could he run some version of that in Philadelphia?

If Nurse wants to go big, he could start Kelly Oubre Jr. or veteran wing Danny Green. Danuel House Jr. and Furkan Korkmaz are both still around, but neither seems like they’d snag a starting spot.

If Nurse wanted to go smaller, he could also call upon veteran guard Patrick Beverley to start. Beverley hasn’t come off the bench for several years, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him start.

Since none of the bigger options are all that appealing, look for Melton and Beverley to battle for the starting spot. One benefit of bringing Melton off the bench is that he’s done it regularly. Melton can also easily sub for, and play alongside, either Maxey or Beverley.

What is the wing rotation? 

Kelly Oubre Jr. was a late addition, but a good one. Oubre isn’t the most efficient guy, but he can score. That still has value, especially in a reserve role. If James Harden isn’t around, the 76ers are going to need someone to replace some of his scoring. Oubre can do that.

After him, it gets a little messy. Maybe Danny Green can regain his 3&D form, but he’s 36 years old and didn’t look great physically last season. Danuel House Jr. and Furkan Korkmaz have never quite been able to grab consistent rotation roles. Maybe Jaden Springer breaks through in his third year. But he’s only played 18 total NBA games, and Springer’s G League production is a little iffy. He mostly overpowered outmatched players with his athleticism to get his points, which won’t happen in the NBA.

This is a spot that could get cleaned up considerably if Daryl Morey eventually trades James Harden. Of course, if Harden is in the fold, and actually tries, then this problem is also lessened. But given we’ve seen what Harden did in both Houston and Brooklyn when he wanted a trade, the 76ers might be worse off if he actually plays.

Toronto Raptors

Who starts? 

Toronto is in transition, even if they don’t fully seem to want to admit it. Kyle Lowry is long gone, Fred VanVleet is gone, and Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby are pending free agents. But for now, new coach Darko Rajakovic has to put a team on the floor that features the latter two.

And that’s where his opening group is formed, along with Scottie Barnes. After that, it’s somewhat of an open question. For most of last season, Nick Nurse favored starting small without a true center. After the team acquired Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline, everyone slid down a position, and Gary Trent Jr. went to the bench.

This season could look similar. Toronto will probably open with the three forwards alongside Poeltl, with Dennis Schroder running the point. Both Siakam and Barnes are capable of running the offense, but it’s likely the rookie coach will want an actual point guard leading his offense.

That means Trent, after opting in for this season, is back in a bench role in a contract year. This is probably another one of those “We have six starters” situations, but it’s pretty clear Trent will be the sixth man here. If he bristles at that, things could get messy.

Starting Poeltl, Siakam, Anunoby, Barnes and Schroder could also be messy spacing-wise. Only Anunoby can be considered a reliable shooter of that group, and he doesn’t have that single-player gravity to create spacing for everyone else.

The real answer to this problem is a trade. The Raptors reportedly were in on trying to get Damian Lillard and that would have made sense in so many ways. Media Day in Toronto was weird, because neither Siakam nor the team’s leadership seemed overly committed to each other. And Anunoby has been looking for a bigger role.

This version of the Raptors was past their expiration date over a year or so ago. But they just keep moving along, with only minor changes. It’s past time for a shakeup, but for now, this group is what it is.

Who is the backup point guard? 

This feels like it’s been a long-term question for the Raptors. Dennis Schroder seems very likely to start, but who backs him up is an open competition. To some extent, it’ll be Pascal Siakam or Scottie Barnes running the offense when Schroder sits, but it’d be nice to see a real backup floor general emerge.

Malachi Flynn is still around, but we’re in Year 4 of hoping he pops. Not much from the previous three years gives off much confidence that will happen. Jeff Dowtin is really interesting, and has been really good in the G League. But Dowtin is 26 years old and doesn’t even have a fully guaranteed contract.

Veteran guard Garrett Temple was added this summer, but he hasn’t been a regular rotation player in over four years. Markquis Nowell is a fun player to watch and monitor. But he’s 5-foot-8, on a two-way deal and he shot under 40% in college. Nowell will have to prove himself in the G League first.

As Toronto has repeatedly leaned into adding lengthy wings (and they did it again this summer by signing Jalen McDaniels), they’ve ignored the backup point guard spot. That’s coming home to roost now. The Raptors might need to lean on Dennis Schroder to play a lot. That historically has come with mixed results. Much like the question about the starting group, this could, and should, be fixed with a trade. But it’s long past time to quit holding our breath waiting on that to happen.

When the Milwaukee Bucks acquired Damian Lillard from the Portland Trail Blazers, conventional wisdom was that the balance of the power in the NBA had shifted. The Bucks were immediately proclaimed not only Eastern Conference favorites, but NBA title favorites as well.

On the other side, the Blazers weren’t destined to keep Jrue Holiday for long. The veteran guard didn’t really fit Portland’s rebuilding plan, which involves several young backcourt players.

Enter the Boston Celtics. In a trade that may have tilted the East and the title odds back toward Boston, the Celtics acquired Holiday from Portland on the eve of NBA Media Day.

The trade details are:

Boston Celtics acquire: Jrue Holiday

Boston Celtics trade: Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, 2024 first-round pick from the Golden State Warriors (top-4 protected in 2024, top-1 protected in 2025, unprotected in 2026) and 2029 unprotected first-round pick from Boston

Portland Trail Blazers acquire: Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams III, 2024 first-round pick from the Golden State Warriors (top-4 protected in 2024, top-1 protected in 2025, unprotected in 2026) and 2029 unprotected first-round pick from Boston

Portland Trail Blazers trade: Jrue Holiday

Boston Celtics

Incoming salary ($36.9M in 2023-24) 

• Jrue Holiday (PG, 1 year, $36.8M + $39.4M player option)

Outgoing salary ($34.1M in 2023-24) 

• Malcolm Brogdon (PG, 2 years, $45M, $22.5M in 2023-24)

• Robert Williams III (C, 3 years, $37.3M, $11.6M in 2023-24)

The Boston Celtics are all-in. There is no other way to describe it. Boston added nearly $3 million in salary to a roster that was already $13.4 million over the tax line.

But the Celtics had to make this move.

When the Milwaukee Bucks added Damian Lillard, Boston had to counter by adding another perimeter defender. Derrick White is excellent, but the idea of defending the Bucks with White as the only good on-ball option was worrisome.

Now, Boston has the best defensive backcourt in the NBA. And they added offensive punch to their frontcourt in their previous big trade. This is the most balanced team the Celtics have had in years, and that’s saying something considering the considerable success this team has had.

Jrue Holiday is essentially the replacement for Marcus Smart, who was traded in the deal that brought Kristaps Porzingis to Boston. Smart’s defense slipped noticeably last season, but that was likely the result of years of wear-and-tear finally catching up with him. After he gave it everything he had to win Defensive Player of the Year in 2022, Smart just wasn’t the same guy last season. White was a better defender, and not by a small margin. But that doesn’t mean replacing Smart was going to be an easy task. Far from it.

In what was considered to a be down year for Holiday, he was still first-team All-Defense. White made second team All-Defense. There simply isn’t a backcourt in the NBA that approaches what these two can do together. Add to it that they both have enough size to switch with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and Boston is re-entering their “switch everything” days.

And that’s a massive part of the reimagining of the Celtics.

The last few seasons have seen Boston become reliant on two-big lineups. Whether it was Al Horford and Rob Williams, or Horford and Grant Williams, or Williams and Williams, or Horford and Daniel Theis, or various other combinations, the Celtics generally played with two big men on the floor.

Now, Joe Mazzulla projects to go smaller and even more five-out, but with more versatility on the floor. It’s likely that the openers for Boston will be Tatum, Brown, White, Holiday and Porzingis. Boston will switch everything with the initial foursome, with Porzingis sitting back in drop coverage, or in help position near the rim. It’s possible Mazzulla will bring back the roamer role that Williams excelled in, using Porzingis as a floater along the backline of the defense.

When they stay more straight up, the Celtics are positioned to play hedge coverages, with Holiday fighting over and around screens. His screen navigation, both on- and off-ball remains elite. The Celtics may also run chained together hand-offs, all designed around allowing the ball to be funneled to Porzingis as a shot blocker.

When Horford, who seems likely to head to a bench role because of Boston’s lack of big man depth (more on that soon!), comes into the game, Boston may straight switch everything one through five. Horford still holds up fairly well against all but the quickest of perimeter players. That type of defensive scheme versatility will make it hard to score on Boston.

The Celtics will miss Rob Williams’ rim protection, same as they are going to miss Grant Williams’ terrific positional defense. But the latter is long gone now, and the former was never a good bet to stay healthy. If Time Lord could be counted on to be healthy for most of the regular season and in April, May and June, he wouldn’t have been traded. Sadly, that’s never been a reality the Celtics were able to enjoy, and hard as it was, it’s understandable that they chose to move on.

This trade gives Mazzulla a lot more defensive versatility than he had a few days ago. On the other side of the ball, Boston also becomes more dynamic.

Holiday has always been a very good shooter. He’s good off the dribble, and excellent when he spots up. In his three seasons with the Bucks, Holiday put up 49/39/80 shooting splits. Even as his three-point attempts increased, his accuracy remained good.

When Boston traded Smart, the immediate focuses were on his defense, leadership and toughness. All fair worries, but all things Holiday will replace quite well. But the Celtics also lost Smart’s playmaking. He was the team’s best passer, and Boston had some questions, even with Tatum taking on more of the creation role.

Now, Mazzulla has options. Tatum is still going to have the ball a lot, as will Brown. They are the engines that make the Celtics go. White will get a fair number of touches too. But, when necessary, Holiday is more than capable of running the show.

It’s fair to expect that the Celtics offense might be a little bumpy to open the season. They’re adding in two new players, both of which are used to having primary or secondary roles in their team’s offense. It’s going to take a little while for that pecking order to figure itself out. But eventually, Holiday will be Boston’s fourth option, and not many teams have a player as good as Holiday in that slot.

There’s some additional pressure on Payton Pritchard now. He wanted a change, and he’s going to get it as the Celtics third guard. He’s not going to be asked to replace Brogdon’s Sixth Man of the Year production, but Pritchard has to provide shooting, some playmaking and enough defense to be playable.

But the offensive and defensive fit, and roles are the least worrisome parts of this trade. The most worrisome portion of this trade is the Celtics frontcourt depth. Even if the team will play smaller lineups more often, and even factoring in Williams’ injury history, Boston is thin up front.

It’s pretty much Porzingis and Horford now. And Porzingis has a lengthy injury history of his own, and Horford is 37 years old. If Porzingis gets hurt again (he did deal with a case of plantar fasciitis over the summer) or Horford falls off (less likely, as he’s remained rock solid), Boston will be in trouble.

Luke Kornet has generally been solid for the Celtics when called upon. But he’s much more of a fourth or fifth big than a third big. Boston is reportedly signing Wenyen Gabriel. He’s also a solid player, but again, more of a fourth option. Brad Stevens might not be done seeking out additional big man depth. Boston is still sitting on a $6.2 million TPE. That could come into play at some point down the line.

The last thing we want to cover is Holiday’s future beyond this season. He has a $39.4 million player option for 2024-25, but it’s unlikely Holiday will play on that number next year. He’ll either opt out and head into free agency, or he may work out a long-term extension with the Celtics. It’s already been reported both Holiday and Boston want to make this a long-term partnership.

We’ll cover Holiday’s extension possibilities in depth in a future Next Contract series. For now, it seems likely Boston will do what they can to get Holiday signed to a new deal. Ideally, they’d bring his 2024-25 salary down by a considerable amount, while adding three or four new years to his deal.

As it stands right now, if Holiday picked up his option, Boston would basically be in the luxury tax for the 2024-25 season with just five players with Tatum, Brown, Porzingis, White and the newly added Holiday. Add in the guaranteed salaries for Horford and rookie Jordan Walsh, and the Celtics will be well into the tax next season.

But that’s the cost of trying to win a title in the NBA. And the Boston Celtics are all in on winning Banner 18.

Portland Trail Blazers

Incoming salary ($36.9M in 2023-24) 

• Malcolm Brogdon (PG, 2 years, $45M, $22.5M in 2023-24)

• Robert Williams III (C, 3 years, $37.3M, $11.6M in 2023-24)

Outgoing salary ($34.1M in 2023-24) 

• Jrue Holiday (PG, 1 year, $36.8M + $39.4M player option)

Much like we did with the trade with the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns that delivered Holiday to Portland, we’re going to keep this relatively simple.

Malcolm Brogdon probably won’t be in Portland very long. He’s probably going to be traded before long. Brogdon may stick around longer than Holiday, only because camps are starting in a few days. But the Trail Blazers are going to keep things moving and will flip Brogdon for even more additional assets. Because of that, we’re not going to focus on Brogdon’s fit with the Blazers at all. It’s simply not going to matter.

Rob Williams, on the other hand, is a bit of a curious addition, as Portland previously acquired Deandre Ayton as their center of the future. Ayton and Williams aren’t a workable combination, so this is a depth and “Why not?” type of double-down acquisition for Portland.

Williams is an athletic marvel. He catches and dunks lobs that most guys wouldn’t get fingertips on. Williams will block shots from out of nowhere, and regularly go back up and block the putback too. He’s also a ferocious finisher around the rim. His rebounding is greatly improved and he’s also a terrific passer.

On the downside, Williams is also a good bet to miss considerable chunks of each season. The healthiest he’s ever been was in the 2021-22 season. Just as Boston was morphing into a juggernaut, Williams tore his meniscus, missed the end of the regular season, some of the playoffs and never looked quite right when he got back late in the Celtics 2022 NBA Finals run.

But this is the kind of mini gamble Portland can make right now. If Williams gets healthy, he’ll team with Ayton to give the team 48 minutes of very good center play. As the Blazers grow, Williams will become an important piece because of his defense.

If nothing else, Williams is another tradable asset. He’s on a great contract. If Portland decides they don’t need him, it’s a lock that some contender will happily make a deal to pick up Williams, in hopes that they can keep him healthy.

Last, but far from least, Portland added two more first-round picks in this deal. The top-4 protected pick from the Golden State Warriors is close to a lock to convey this year. Unless everything craters for the Warriors, the Blazers will get a non-lottery pick. If Golden State does fall apart fully, Portland will see that pick flip to top-1 protected in 2025. If by some change the Warriors are a two-year mess, the Trail Blazers will get an unprotected pick in 2026.

The real get is the 2029 first-round pick from the Celtics. By the time that pick comes due, it’s impossible to predict what Boston will be. Both Jrue Holiday and Al Horford will likely be retired. Kristaps Porzingis will be 34 years old and, if we’re being honest, probably long gone from Boston.

Jaylen Brown will be in the final year of his yet-to-start super max extension, and Jayson Tatum will be in Year 4 of his incoming super max extension. On paper, Brown and Tatum in their early-30s should be enough to keep Boston in contention. But a lot can, and will, change between now and then.

Much like they did in the deal with the Bucks, the Trail Blazers added another mystery box pick. If their young core proves ready to win in the next two or three years, Portland will have additional assets to use in trades to supplement that core. Just as Boston did in this deal. As it always has, the NBA transaction wheel rolls ever onward.

It final happened. Essentially three months after Damian Lillard asked the Portland Trail Blazers for a trade, a deal was reached. And, somewhat surprisingly, Lillard was not sent to his preferred destination of the Miami Heat. Instead, Lillard is joining another Eastern Conference title contenders. The trade details are:

• Milwaukee Bucks acquire: Damian Lillard
• Milwaukee Bucks trade: Grayson Allen, Jrue Holiday, 2029 first-round pick, 2028 and 2030 first-round pick swaps
• Phoenix Suns acquire: Grayson Allen, Keon Johnson, Nassir Little, Jusuf Nurkic
• Phoenix Suns trade: Deandre Ayton, Toumani Camara
• Portland Trail Blazers acquire: Deandre Ayton, Toumani Camara, Jrue Holiday, 2029 first-round pick, 2028 and 2030 first-round pick swaps
• Portland Trail Blazers trade: Keon Johnson, Damian Lillard, Nassir Little, Jusuf Nurkic

Whew!

Eight players and up to three draft picks in a three-team trade. And there’s always a chance this deal expands (or is followed up with a subsequent trade) if/when Jrue Holiday is rerouted to another team.

Milwaukee Bucks

Incoming Salary ($45.6M in 2023-24)

• Damian Lillard (PG, 3 years, $152.8M + $63.2M player option, $45.6M in 2023-24)

Outgoing Salary ($45.7M in 2023-24)

• Jrue Holiday (PG, 1 year, $36.8M + $39.4M player option)
• Grayson Allen (SG, 1 year, $8.925M)

The Milwaukee Bucks landed the star here in Damian Lillard. They saved a little bit of salary in the deal for this year, but that’s so negligible that it doesn’t really matter. Milwaukee functionally added three years and $162.5 million for the next three seasons, as Jrue Holiday was a near-lock to decline his player option for the 2024-25 season.

But as many have said: That’s the cost of doing business in the NBA.The Bucks were under pressure to prove Giannis Antetokounmpo that they were committed to winning now and, crucially, for years to come. Antetokounmpo himself said that Milwaukee’s commitment to winning titles would be the difference in him staying with the only franchise he’s ever known or signing elsewhere.

Mission accomplished…maybe?

Lillard is an incredible talent. He’s one of the best scoring guards in the NBA. He’s repeatedly come up big in clutch moments. He should fit in perfectly with Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez as the Bucks veteran core. Lillard has also been somewhat injury-prone over the last few seasons. Lillard is also 33 years old. And he’s nowhere near the defender that Milwaukee has been accustomed to having in Holiday. But he’s Damian freaking Lillard. And that should be enough.

The Bucks will be a different sort of team now. They traded defense for offense. But Antetokounmpo and Lopez should be able to clean up most messes caused by that downgrade on defense. The point of attack defense won’t be the same, but Adrian Griffin and his staff should be able to scheme around that fairly effectively.

As for offense, the Bucks are going to be lethal. Holiday wasn’t a bad offensive player, but he’s not Lillard. In his age-32 season last year, Lillard averaged a career-high 32.2 points on 46/37/91 shooting splits with a whopping 11.3 three-point attempts per game.

Now, Lillard will have the best offensive talent to work with that he’s ever had. Instead of a hard hedge or direct double-team when he comes off an on-ball screen, Lillard is probably getting a straight switch, or a defender trying to avoid a mismatch trailing over late. He should see cleaner looks than he’s seen in years.

In addition, the overall threat of Lillard, combined with his deep range, should open up the floor even more for Antetokounmpo’s driving game, and also Middleton, who thrives in the space in the middle. Brook Lopez will continue to see open looks, and Milwaukee can also put shooters like Pat Connaughton, Malik Beasley and A.J. Green on the floor too. That’s going to be a very spread offense with one of the games most terrifying drivers in Antetokounmpo looking down driving lanes.

It’s worth noting that Milwaukee traded their most-used starting backcourt in this deal, as Grayson Allen was sent to the Phoenix Suns. That means someone needs to be elevated to the starting lineup alongside Lillard. The Bucks could go with Pat Connaughton, who has started a decent amount. He’s a viable replacement for Allen’s shooting ability, while adding some better rebounding and similar defense.

Other options include Jae Crowder, if the Bucks want to go bigger and better defensively by moving Middleton back to the two. That one seems less likely, as Middleton and Crowder have both slowed somewhat as perimeter defenders. And then the Bucks need to find a backup four, which is Crowder’s current role, as Bobby Portis projects to play a lot at the five.

Malik Beasley was signed as a free agent, and he’d be a good fit in the starting group, if Griffin wants to leave others in roles that they are comfortable in. And don’t rule out A.J. Green as a surprise option. Green is a knockdown shooter and a developing playmaker. He’d be a passable fit for what Allen brought to the Bucks.

As for Giannis Antetokounmpo and extension possibilities, we covered that in depth here. Only Antetokounmpo, and probably time, will tell if acquiring Lillard was enough to get him thinking about reupping in Milwaukee. But all of the details for potential next contracts for Antetokounmpo are laid out in that piece.

Projected Starting 5: Damian Lillard, Malik Beasley, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez

Related: Bucks 2023-24 Salary Cap Table

Portland Trail Blazers

Incoming Salary ($70.3M in 2023-24)

• Deandre Ayton (C, 3 years, $102M, $32.4M in 2023-24)
• Toumani Camara (PF, 4 years, $7.6M, $1.1M in 2023-24)
• Jrue Holiday (PG, 1 year, $36.8M + $39.4M player option)

Outgoing salary ($71.5M in 2023-24)

• Damian Lillard (PG, 3 years, $152.8M + $63.2M player option, $45.6M in 2023-24)
• Keon Johnson (SG, 1 year, $2.8M + 2024-25 club option)
• Nassir Little (SF, 4 years, $28M, $6.25M in 2023-24)
• Jusuf Nurkic (C, 3 years, $54.375M, $16.875M in 2023-24)

The Portland Trail Blazers side of this deal is a little incomplete. ESPN has already reported that Portland is trying to find a home for Jrue Holiday. That makes sense, as the Trail Blazers have little need for Holiday on their rebuilding team. Portland is also going to give the young guard group of Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Anfernee Simons as many minutes as they can handle.

That means we’ll eventually have an additional component to evaluate here for the Blazers. Whatever they get for Holiday, either in an expanded deal or a separate one, will have to be a part of the overall analysis. Because of that, we aren’t going to spend any time on Holiday’s fit in Portland.

Instead, we’ll pivot to the big man in Deandre Ayton. Has Ayton failed to live up to his number one overall pick status? That’s probably fair to say. Is he a complete bust and a terrible player? Not even close. Ayton has averaged a double-double in each of his five NBA seasons. For reference, only eleven players (ten if you remove Anthony Davis as a non-qualifier due to games played) averaged a double-double last season. Ayton has done it for five straight years. That’s not nothing.

The outside shot has never become a thing, and Ayton likes his midrange and turnaround fallaway jumpers a bit too much, but he’s still an effective scorer around the rim. He’s also one of the better offensive rebounders in the league, which belies a lot of the lack-of-effort stuff he’s often accused of.

On defense, Ayton is far from a game-changer. But there’s untapped ability there. It’ll probably never get unlocked, but if it does, Ayton becomes a solid two-way player.

Contractually, Ayton’s deal isn’t bad, even if it is a max. He’s making under 24% of the cap in each of his remaining three seasons. Given the Trail Blazers only other sizable salaries are for Jerami Grant and Simons, they should be fine with Ayton in the mix. It’ll be a few years before paying anyone else is a thing in Portland.

Also, and this is probably the most important factor, Ayton fits in with the age timeline in Portland. He just turned 25. The rest of the Blazers core is between 19 and 26. Even if you include Jerami Grant, he’s only 29 years old. The team can grow this group together and figure out what they have over the next few seasons.

In the end, Portland acquired a talented center who can be a big part of the team’s new core. And they’ve been linked to Ayton for a while, which also helps things too. They’ve likely had some sort of plans in place, if they could acquire him.

Toumani Camara is a nice flyer, especially for a team that is now fully rebuilding. Camara stuffed the stat sheet for Dayton as a senior and then put together a really nice Summer League showing too. The Blazers aren’t overflowing with forward talent, so adding a 6-foot-8 guy that can do a little bit of everything is a nice extra piece in this trade.

Before we get to the final incoming pieces to Portland, it’s fair to note that the Blazers got off of $54.4 in salary owed to Jusuf Nurkic in this deal. Nurkic had aged out of the team’s timeline, and his health issues made keeping him around even less appealing. Getting off of that contract is helpful, even if it possibly lessened the return.

The other two players, Nassir Little and Keon Johnson, are kind of caught up in the salary-matching swirl here. Little is a good player, but his role was going to be lessened with where Portland is heading. Johnson had a few flashes, but he was never going to crack the Blazers stacked guard group.

And now we get to the draft compensation. It feels a little light, considering this is Damian Lillard. One first-round pick and two swaps is probably less than the Blazers and Joe Cronin were thinking when this whole ordeal began. But swaps are the kind of things that are meaningless until they aren’t. And a pick that won’t deliver until six years from now could be anything. Maybe the Bucks implode and this all falls apart. Maybe they are incredibly successful and everyone retires happy. Those are picks and swaps with upside for Portland, given that they are several years and contract cycles away.

For now, Portland did well in this trade. The team trading away a superstar often comes up short in their return. If/when the Trail Blazers flip Jrue Holiday for additional players/picks, they’ll have done really well. We’ll re-evaluate when that happens.

Projected Starting 5: Jrue Holiday, Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton

Related: Trail Blazers 2023-24 Salary Cap Table

Phoenix Suns

Incoming Salary ($34.85M in 2023-24)

• Grayson Allen (SG, 1 year, $8.925M)
• Keon Johnson (SG, 1 year, $2.8M + 2024-25 club option)
• Nassir Little (SF, 4 years, $28M, $6.25M in 2023-24)
• Jusuf Nurkic (C, 3 years, $54.375M, $16.875M in 2023-24)

Outgoing Salary ($33.5M in 2023-24)

• Deandre Ayton (C, 3 years, $102M, $32.4M in 2023-24)
• Toumani Camara (PF, 4 years, $7.6M, $1.1M in 2023-24)

The Suns inclusion in this deal at first seems a little odd. Deandre Ayton seemed a good fit for what Frank Vogel hoped to build defensively. But the Suns seem to want to lean more into more of a sure thing offensively, while breaking Ayton’s contract into smaller, more tradable pieces.

On the former, Jusuf Nurkic should be that for Phoenix. He’s a terrific screener, a pretty good passer and he’s got a better outside shot than Ayton. He’ll rebound on the defensive boards at roughly the same rate as Ayton did. But Nurkic doesn’t have the defensive potential Ayton did, even if Ayton’s is largely unrealized.

Nurkic is also a pretty good bet to miss some time with injuries. Ayton had been pretty reliable over the past five years, while Nurkic has played 153 games total over the last four seasons. That’s at least a little worrisome for a team with title aspirations.

As for the latter, Grayson Allen and Nassir Little were nice depth gets for the Suns in this deal. Allen gives them another guard option. That’s important in case any of Bradley Beal, Devin Booker or Eric Gordon has a reoccurrence of the injuries that have plagued them in recent years.

Little gives Phoenix another athletic forward option. He might not beat out Keita Bates-Diop or Yuta Watanabe for minutes, but Little is a nice option to have around. And if that 37% three-point shooting is real, then Little becomes a really nice option to have off the bench.

The real value Allen and Little may have to Phoenix is that they are very easily movable players in a future deal. They make a combined $15.2 million, which could get the Suns a player down the line. That’s a lot easier to make happen than a trade that had to include Ayton’s $32.5 million salary for any sort of meaningful return.

Phoenix is currently at 17 players on standard NBA deals, which is two over the NBA’s regular season maximum. Ishmail Wainright is probably one of the cuts coming, as his contract is non-guaranteed. Jordan Goodwin is on a partially guaranteed deal, but he’s sticking around. That means the Suns will most likely have to eat a fully guaranteed contract on their books. But, hey, in for a penny, in for a pound, right?

Are the Suns really better after this deal? That’s hard to say. Nurkic is an offensive upgrade over Ayton, but how much more offense do you need when you have Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal? We’ll say Phoenix is better, but probably not appreciably so. At least not until they do whatever is coming next, which seems likely to happen at some point.

Projected Starting 5: Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Josh Okogie, Kevin Durant, Jusuf Nurkic

Related: Suns 2023-24 Salary Cap Table

Miami Heat

We aren’t going to spend a lot of time here, because the Heat ended up not being a part of a deal for Damian Lillard. In the rare case where a superstar wasn’t able to name his destination, Miami was on the short end of the stick.

The Heat roster felt unfinished in hopes of a Lillard trade. Now, Miami has to pick up some of the pieces. They still have a lot of talent, but lost two key starters in Gabe Vincent and Max Strus. Josh Richardson was a nice addition, but that’s if he was your second- or third-best pickup, not your key signing.

All of that said, someone will emerge for Miami and have us all asking “How do they keep doing this?” Last year’s first-round pick Nikola Jovic appears poised for a bigger role too. The Heat will still end up being good, because that’s just sort of what they do.

Projected Starting 5: Tyler Herro, Josh Richardson, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, Bam Adebayo

Related: Heat 2023-24 Salary Cap Table 

Toronto Raptors

We’ll spend even less time here, because we only know that Toronto was engaged on trading for Damian Lillard. We have no real sense of how close anything really got. But that’s sort of the point.

We’ve all been waiting for the Raptors to do something big for a few years now. And they just kind of keep staying the same. Except in recent years, they’ve bled talent from a roster that was once one of the deepest in the NBA. Now, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby are on expiring deals (Anunoby has a player option he’s likely to decline) and Toronto’s future seems no less certain than it was before.

A Lillard trade would have been a risky homerun swing, but Masai Ujiri won that way when he traded for Kawhi Leonard. It seems like Toronto is set up to take a similar cut again, but they seem content to move the runners along, playing station-to-station ball. That can win in the NBA, but it often results in a team that’s just kind of stuck in the middle. And that’s where the Raptors currently find themselves.

Projected Starting 5: Denis Schroder, O.G. Anunoby, Scottie Barnes, Pascal Siakam, Jakob Poeltl

Related: Raptors 2023-24 Salary Cap Table

The NBA preseason is right around the corner. Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so. We’ve already covered the Southeast Division teams.

Dallas Mavericks

Who are the non-Luka and non-Kyrie starters? 

Dallas has their two superstars locked into starting positions with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The other three spots seem to be at least somewhat up for grabs. The good news? The Mavs have lots of options.

The one we’re most confident in is Grant Williams grabbing the starting power forward spot. Dallas can use his defense in the opening lineup, and his spot-up game and passing ability are nice fits on offense. Maxi Kleber is a good player, but the team has generally preferred him in a bench role.

At center, it seems like Dwight Powell will get the first crack. He’s an excellent screener, solid defender and he knows how to play with Luka Doncic. Those are all important things. But Dallas has some other options to at least take a look at. Richaun Holmes seems poised for a career rejuvenation. Dereck Lively II is oozing with potential, but he probably needs a year or so of seasoning. And the Mavericks have done well with Kleber playing some small-ball five too.

On the wing is where things get really interesting. Tim Hardaway Jr. is the long-time veteran option. He’s had that QB-WR connection with Doncic where the Mavs star can just trust Hardaway will be there when he throws a pass. But Hardaway doesn’t bring a lot defensively, and he trended more toward being a three-point specialist than ever last season. The latter is probably fine, but the former is a worry.

Josh Green is ready for a bigger role. He’s the best perimeter defender the Mavericks have. And Green put up 54/40 shooting splits last season. The guess is that even if he doesn’t start to open the season, Green will snag that starting wing spot by Christmas.

Other players like Seth Curry, Derrick Jones Jr., Jaden Hardy and rookie Olivier-Maxence Prosper will probably all factor in at some point too. But the guess is the Mavs will ultimately settle on Doncic, Irving, Green, Williams and Powell as their regular starting group.

Related: What is the wing rotation? 

As stated above, we know Josh Green and Tim Hardaway Jr. are going to factor in heavily in the Mavericks wing rotation. Seth Curry will see plenty of off-ball minutes as a designated shooter too. But Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are both going to play somewhere in the range of 36-38 minutes too. That doesn’t leave a lot of extra playing time. Who snags it?

Jaden Hardy is going to be hard to keep off the floor. He really started to show some stuff as his rookie season went along. Dallas likes his creation ability. If he can cut down on his turnovers and improve defensively, he may eventually surpass Hardaway in the rotation.

Olivier-Maxence Prosper is going to factor in here as well. He’s NBA-ready as a defender, but the shot needs work. Eventually, Prosper will see rotation minutes, but they may take a little bit to come his way.

Houston Rockets

Who is the backup point guard? 

The Rockets busy summer established a pretty clear pecking order for a team that was previously made up of a lot of young guys fighting for roles. Things are much cleaner now, minus backup point guard.

That spot would have likely been Kevin Porter Jr.’s, but that’s clearly no longer the case. With Houston being legitimately at least two-deep at every other spot, Ime Udoka has to figure out the backup point guard spot.

The guess here is that Houston would like Amen Thompson to grab that role. His size, defense and passing fits really well with both Jalen Green and Fred VanVleet in a three-guard rotation. Thompson needs to shoot it better, but the Rockets can be patient while his shot develops.

If Thompson doesn’t prove ready out of the gate, veteran journeyman Aaron Holiday can handle the initial backup minutes. The only other option is two-way player Trevor Hudgins. That means it’s really on Thompson to claim that role for his own.

It’s not just the in-game backup minutes where this matters. VanVleet is a good bet to miss at least a handful of games. If Udoka can comfortably plug Thompson in as a starter, or can increase his minutes as a backup, on those nights, that’s a win for the Rockets.

Will Cam Whitmore get minutes? 

Cam Whitmore had a shocking fall at the 2023 NBA Draft. He was projected as a high lottery pick and ended up falling to Houston with the 20th pick. Health concerns, along with some vague attitude worries, were cited as the reasons Whitmore fell.

At Summer League, the 6-foot-7 forward seemingly took any lingering draft frustrations out on his opponents. Whitmore looked terrific on both ends of the floor. It’s pretty clear already that his draft misfortune was a massive stroke of good luck for the Rockets.

But earning regular season minutes is a different thing entirely. Jabari Smith and Dillon Brooks project as the starting forwards. Tari Eason, Jae’Sean Tate and veteran addition Jeff Green will all open camp ahead of Whitmore in the rotation too. But Ime Udoka is going to have to find some minutes somewhere for Whitmore. He’s too good to sit for too long. Look for Whitmore to force the issue, in a good way, sooner rather than later.

Memphis Grizzlies

Who starts while Ja Morant is out? 

Ja Morant will miss roughly the first third of the season for the Grizzlies. That’s rough, but Memphis has had success without Morant in the past. Marcus Smart is more than capable of handling the point guard role while Morant is out. The real question is who replaces Dillon Brooks to open the season?

Yes, the Grizzlies had tired of Brooks antics and were ready to move on. And, yes, Smart is probably the long-term answer as to who replaces Brooks on the wing. But the team has to get through two months of the season before that can happen.

Two seasons ago, it looked like Ziaire Williams was going to be the long-term answer at small forward. Williams really settled in midway through his rookie year, and looked like the future was bright. Unfortunately, Williams’ sophomore season was a lost one, as he struggled with injuries and never really got healthy. He could re-grab that starting spot with a strong preseason.

Another option is Luke Kennard, if Memphis wants some additional shooting and playmaking in the opening group. The Grizzlies have more than enough defense to cover for Kennard, and he’d help open up the floor for Desmond Bane, who projects as the primary on-ball creator with Morant out.

For other options, John Konchar is a favorite of the coaching staff. David Roddy and Jake LaRavia could be second-year breakout guys. Mostly, Memphis has a bunch of options, even if none are perfect. This could be a spot where Taylor Jenkins does some experimenting with various players while Morant is out.

Related: What is the wing rotation? 

As covered above, Dillon Brooks is out. But Memphis has one wing spot covered with Desmond Bane. He’s somehow still underrated, even after getting essentially a max extension this past summer.

The lead guard depth is good with Ja Morant, Marcus Smart and Derrick Rose all in the fold. The frontcourt depth is solid enough, even with Brandon Clarke likely out for most, if not all, of the season. Look for Santi Aldama to continue to build on what was a really good second season.

That second wing spot is still a question mark. Eventually, Smart will probably slide off-ball and will take on the role Brooks held down for years. But the Grizzlies need more. It’s all of the same options we covered for the fifth starter spot. But two or three of them will need to emerge as reliable wing contributors, and it’s a guess right now as to who that will be.

New Orleans Pelicans

How does the wing rotation shake out? 

New Orleans has a lot of talent, but how that talent all fits together is still a question due to them rarely being healthy over the past few seasons. Nowhere are those questions bigger with the wing group.

Zion Williamson and Jonas Valanciunas will start in the frontcourt, with Larry Nance Jr. in reserve. C.J. McCollum is the primary lead guard, with Jose Alvarado and, maybe, Kira Lewis Jr. behind him, along with some on-ball minutes for Dyson Daniels too.

The wing group has talent, but who gets those minutes and in what combinations? Brandon Ingram and Herb Jones will start. Ingram is probably the team’s best all-around player (pending your confidence and belief in Williamson) and Jones is an all-world defender. Behind them, there are a lot more questions.

Had Trey Murphy III been healthy, he would have made the starter question a really interesting one. That’s because he’s ready to start, as he did for most of last season. But that would have pushed someone to the bench. The guess here is that would have been Jones, but maybe Murphy would have played big minutes as a reserve 2-4? As it stands, Murphy’s role and impact on others won’t be known for several weeks, as he recovers from a knee injury.

Naji Marshall is next up, but Daniels will factor in too. Marshall is a known quantity at this point. He’ll play defense, run the floor for buckets and give the Pelicans 20-25 solid minutes a night.

Daniels is still a mystery box. Is he really an on-ball playmaker? Is he a defense-first wing? Will the jumper ever come around? Daniels has a ton of potential, but it’s all still so theoretical. And for a team trying to win, opportunities to hand out “figure it out” minutes are getting fewer and fewer.

Lastly, rookies Jordan Hawkins and E.J. Liddell are going to be players to monitor. Liddell missed all of last season, but he looked really solid at Summer League. Right now, he’s a small four, but if he can get the jumper working, Liddell could be in the wing mix. Hawkins is a scoring guard. He doesn’t have tremendous size, but he’s big enough to play the two. If he’s making shots, Hawkins could push his way into early-season minutes while Murphy is out.

Is backup center an issue? 

Jonas Valanciunas has been remarkably durable, but he’s also 31 years old now and his minutes dropped off to 25 per game last season. If that’s where Valanciunas is now, the Pelicans need a reliable option behind him.

Larry Nance Jr. can soak up some backup minutes at the five, but will he hold up all season long? Playing Zion Williamson as a small-ball five has been done in spurts, but there are questions there too. That seems like a very low-usage thing, if we see much of it at all.

The Pelicans signed Cody Zeller in free agency, following the vet’s late-season career rebirth with the Miami Heat. If Zeller can give the Pelicans 10-15 minutes a night in the regular season, it would keep the wear and tear off Nance. Once the playoffs roll around, if Zeller is productive, he can stick. If not, New Orleans can shrink the rotation and go smaller behind Valanciunas.

San Antonio Spurs

Who is the fifth starter? 

We can safely plug in the following four players as starters for the Spurs most nights: Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Zach Collins and Tre Jones. The first two are the team’s best building blocks. Collins is going to start at the five, because San Antonio wants to keep Wembanyama at the four. And Jones is the best (only?) pure point guard on the roster.

The easiest answer for the fifth starter is Keldon Johnson. He’s been a starter for the last three seasons, and Johnson has improved each year he’s been in the NBA. He’ll probably get the first crack at starting, and he should. Johnson is good.

But Jeremy Sochan is coming. As a rookie, Sochan started 53 of the 56 games he played. His season was up-and-down due to injuries, but the potential is very evident. He’s probably the best big perimeter defender that San Antonio has. Sochan is also a better-than-you-think passer, good rebounder and he’s a tricky scorer. If the jumper was better, he’d probably overtake Johnson right now.

Maybe, and who knows what Gregg Popovich will surprise us with, someone else emerges as a starter. The team remains high on Malaki Branham and starting someone like Julian Champagnie just feels like a Pop move. Starting Reggie Bullock would give the team a veteran shooter, as would Doug McDermott. There are a lot of options here, and that will make it a fun competition to monitor throughout the year.

Who gets cut? 

As it stands as of this writing, the Spurs are plus-two in terms of their regular season roster. They have 17 fully guaranteed standard contracts and the regular season maximum is 15 players on standard deals.

Khem Birch seems likely to go, as San Antonio has Zach Collins, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Charles Bassey, and whatever minutes Victor Wembanyama gets in the pivot, at center. Birch was more or less a throw-in to make the Jakob Poeltl trade work, so he’s probably one of the cuts.

The other one isn’t so cut and dry. Maybe it’s a competition between Reggie Bullock and Cedi Osman, where one stays and one goes. The team has nothing invested in either player, as both were acquired as part of salary-dumping trades this past summer.

If the Spurs feel they’ve seen what they need from Charles Bassey, and they want more wing options, he could be let go. Devonte’ Graham would be a surprise, but he’s not exactly entrenched as a part of the future in San Antonio either. Some have even suggested it could be a surprise like Doug McDermott, but that doesn’t seem as likely.

There’s also a chance the Spurs hold everyone and see if a need develops elsewhere for a trade opportunity. That could involve Birch, Bullock, Osman, Graham or McDermott as an outgoing veteran.