The Financial Implications for Deshaun Watson

Michael GinnittiFebruary 04, 2021

The Deshaun Watson “saga” may not be going away anytime soon, as the new Houston Texans front office has been adamant in their stance to not trade the 25 year old QB this offseason, despite his public request. We’ll take a quick look at what this showdown could mean for Watson financially.


If he misses the May Minicamp

The first program Deshaun Watson can holdout for is the team minicamp a few weeks after the 2021 draft. Whether it’s in person or virtual this year, the camp is deemed mandatory, and thus his absence would cost him $95,877 in fines.

 

If he misses Training Camp

If the holdout extends into camp, the Texans will be required to fine him $50,000 for each camp day missed.

 

If he misses Preseason Games

Every preseason game Watson misses due to holdout will cost him 1/17 of his 2021 base salary, or $620,000.

 

Potential Offseason Fines

Per the new CBA, these fines are no longer “optional” but rather required.
Minicamp: $95,877
Training Camp: $1,400,000
Preseason: $1.86M?
Total: $3.35M

 

If he starts to miss Regular Season games

Watson will forfeit $620,000 per week he misses, which of course would total the full $10.54M salary if he skips the entire season. Which means if he truly stays away from the Houston Texans from today though the end of 2021, he’ll have lost $13.89M this year.

 

Can’t he just retire?

No. Processing a retirement will allow the Texans to go after the $21.6M of signing bonus that has yet to his the salary cap. Watson would be forced to repay this due to a breach of contract. Furthermore, the Texans would still hold the rights to Watson under the terms of this contract, which would essentially just “freeze”. Were he to attempt to return to the league, he would need Houston to release or trade him out of the contract to move on (not unlike what Rob Gronkowski went through with New England prior to the 2020 season).

 

The financials of a trade

  • Traded before June 1
    $21.6M of dead cap to the Texans ($5.66M lost). New team acquires a 5 year, $146.54M contract, with cap hits of $10.54M (GTD)/$35M (GTD)/$37M (GTD)/$32M/$32M.
  • Released before June 1
    67.14M of dead cap to the Texans ($51.2M lost).
  • Traded after June 1
    $5.4M of 2021 dead cap ($10.54M saved), $16.2M of 2022 dead cap ($24.2M saved) to the Texans. New team acquires a 5 year, $146.54M contract, with cap hits of $10.54M (GTD)/$35M (GTD)/$37M (GTD)/$32M/$32M.
  • Released after June 1
    $50.94M of 2021 dead cap ($35M lost), $16.2M of 2022 dead cap ($24.2M saved) to the Texans.

2021 QB Carousel Contest

Michael GinnittiJanuary 28, 2021

Super Bowl LV, Financially

Michael GinnittiJanuary 27, 2021

2020 Salary Cap Expenditures

Kansas City: 5th ($217M)
Tampa Bay: 14th ($202M)

The Chiefs had 8 players with cap figures north of $10M this season, but none north of $20M thanks to a sizable restructure to Frank Clark’s salary. It should be noted that Mahomes ($5.3M), was not (yet) one of them. Tampa Bay had 6 players with $10M+ cap figures in 2020, led by Tom Brady’s $27.8M hit, and Shaq Barrett’s franchise tag ($15.8M).

 

Dead Cap

Kansas City: 23rd ($17M)
Tampa Bay: 32nd ($7M)

As per usual, the two teams to make it to the finish line are in the lower third tier of dead cap allocation, with the Bucs an annual contender here due to their lack of signing bonus inclusion in contracts.

 

Positionally Speaking

A look at how these two teams ranked in terms of active roster cap spending positionally in 2020.

Team Offense Defense Special Teams
Bucs 3 6 8
Chiefs 2 9 14

No surprise, but both the Chiefs & Bucs are built as Top 5 offensive spenders, & Top 10 defensively speaking. Neither team "left anything on the table" in terms of putting the absolute best roster forward for this season.

Team QB HB WR TE OL DL LB DB S/T Total
Bucs 5 18 20 1 2 17 1 29 18 2
Chiefs 25 21 1 7 22 3 10 7 14 4

The Chiefs have the most 2020 cap allocated to WRs in the league, while the Bucs (despite having to face the best in the game next week), carry the top allocation at the TE position. Again, these are two Top 5 cap spenders in terms of total active roster. It should also be noted that Patrick Mahomes & Chad Henne currently combine for just $6.9M of cap, good enough for 25th in the league. This is a metric that will change drastically in the next few years, making it significantly more difficult for KC to keep strength and balance in their positional spending.

 

Top Career Earners

 

2021 Outlook

The Bucs currently hold around $29M of Top 51 cap space for 2021, but it's a bit of a myth. Tampa Bay has just 30 players currently under contract next season, and a strong list of notable players set to hit the open market. The Chiefs sit about $18M in the hole based on the minimum $175M league cap, but there are restructures available to help even things out a bit.

 

Pending Free Agents

Kansas City

The Chiefs suddenly have a bit of a dire offensive line problem with two key pieces set to hit the market, the return of Laurent Duvernay-Tardif questionable, and LT Eric Fisher suffering an Achilles injury that will require a lengthy recovery. Restructuring Frank Clark, Tyreek Hill, & Travis Kelce’s salaries will free up quite a bit of space, but KC will be limited in how much they can add or retain this offseason.

Tampa Bay

With only 30 players under contract, and many of their free agents set for big time paydays, it’s going to be a tall order to retain this Super Bowl roster going forward. Extensions for Donovan Smith, JPP, & even Brady could clear a good amount of cap, while star DT Vita Vea will likely also be in for a raise this offseason.

 

Potential Extensions

WR Chris Godwin (TB, 24)

Calculated Market Value: $17M
Most teams would likely opt not to pay their #2 receiver near #1 money, but this is a special window for this Bucs team, and it's impossible to imagine GM Jason Licht allowing Godwin to leave, unless Tom Brady signs off on it. The franchise tag for WRs is projected to drop down into the mid $15Ms for 2021, making it a real possibility for this situation.

 

FS Tyrann Mathieu(KC, 28)

Calculated Market Value: $13M
Mathieu is under contract currently through 2021, but his cap hit soars to $19.7M. He's too vital to move on from, so a restructured extension is very likely here. His current $14M AAV has only been surpassed by $750,000 (Budda Baker) since first signing with KC back in March of 2019. Though his calculated value says $13M, it's hard to question why Tyrann can't lock in $15M for the next 3 seasons.

 

LB Lavonte David (TB, 31)

Calculated Market Value: $13M
David has been with the Bucs since 2012, suffering through a lot of bad times with the organization. His value not only to the locker room, but alongside stud LB Devin White can't be overstated. While the Bobby Wagner's of the world are cashing in $18M per year extensions, David will most likely need to take a bit of a discount to stay in the fold, as he calculates in the $13M per year range.

 

QB Tom Brady (TB, 43)

Calculated Market Value: $28.6M
Brady's numbers certainly aren't popping off the page as a total package, but the ageless GOAT was Top 5 in TD Passes & Passing Yards in 2020. If there are weapons, Brady can win ballgames. His $27.8M cap figure for 2021 isn't outrageous, but as he's done so many times before in New England, a simple restructured extension to lower that figure not only makes sense for the Bucs next year, but also aligns him with the opportunity to play football at age 45. 2 years, $60M should get it done?

 

OT Eric Fisher (KC, 30)

Calculated Market Value: $18.5M
Yes, he just suffered an awful Achilles injury, but the Pro Bowl left tackle is just 30 years old. Packers' LT David Bakhtiari will be 30 this coming season, and just locked in $92M over 4 years. Fisher's been more of a Top 15 OT than a Top 5 one of late, so a price around $18M for 3-4 seasons makes sense, and will help lower his current $15.1M cap hit for 2021.

The Aaron Rodgers Conundrum

Michael GinnittiJanuary 25, 2021

Another NFC Championship defeat and a seemingly calculated quote leaves the immediate future of QB Aaron Rodgers & the Packers in question (we think). We’ll strip away all outside factors here and simply breakdown what his current contract says in terms of a trade or retirement this offseason.



If Rodgers Retires…
The contract has $74.22M remaining over the next three seasons, and as of right now, NONE of it is guaranteed. A $6.8M roster bonus is said to be paid on March 19th, another $500,000 will be owed during summer workouts, but his $15M salary won’t fully guaranteed until Week 1.  If he walks away immediately, the Packers will take on a whopping $31.5M dead cap charge, which would still actually clear $6M of space. If the Packers wait to process his retirement until after June 1st, while also converting that roster bonus into a signing bonus (spread over the remaining 3 seasons), the dead cap hits become $16.6M in 2021, and $21.7M in 2022, savings of $20.9M & $18.1M respectively.

If Rodgers is Traded…
The numbers above pretty much stay the same, with the condition of the $6.8M roster bonus. If  Rodgers demands a trade, he’ll want it done immediately, meaning the Packers will be stuck with the $31.5M dead cap charge - a huge problem. So can they work with the new team and Rodgers to make this easier on them? Maybe (but probably not). I’d again recommend the Packers convert the $6.8M roster bonus into an immediate signing bonus (spread out over the next 3 seasons), and wait to process this trade until June 2nd. This means a $16.6M dead cap charge in 2021, & a $21.7M hit in 2022.

The Takeaway
Trading Aaron Rodgers is a terrible idea - both from a football standpoint and a business one as well. Even if Jordan Love is being groomed as the next option, it’s inconceivable to assume he’s at a ready point to take over, and the unavoidable dead cap figures to move on from Rodgers are just too high to handle - in any scenario.

The Solution
Do what the Patriots refused to do in 2019 or 2020. Go ALL-IN on your roster for 1 season. If Rodgers wants Kenny Golladay opposite Adams, sign him. If Stephon Gilmore wants a 4 year contract to replace Kevin King - sign him. If Aaron Jones wants more than $10M per year on a multi-year deal, franchise tag him. If Corey Linsley wants to be a Top 5 paid center - extend him. This isn’t (just) about legacy, it’s actually bad business to have Aaron Rodgers playing somewhere else. The alternative is to please him, and aren’t there worse things than making an MVP happy?

Offseason Outlook: NFL Final Four

Michael GinnittiJanuary 25, 2021

With the Super Bowl matchup now set, our focus turns solely onto the NFL offseason, where teams have already begun to sign future contracts, release a few unnecessary pieces, & begun talks to retain notable pieces. We'll begin our focus with a look at how the final four teams shake out for the upcoming months, including projected current cap space, notable free agents, & more.

Related Links:

 

Buffalo Bills

2021 Cap Space: $2.7M (based on $175M cap)
Players Under Contract: 41
Extension Candidate: QB Josh Allen ($41M)
Notable Free Agents:

The Bills will need to tinker with the right side of their offensive line this offseason, likely via both the draft & free agency, and they’ll have a decision to make on talented but oft-injured LB Matt Milano, but other than that this team will remain fairly intact for the 2021 campaign. The lack of big time needs likely means a big time payday for QB Josh Allen.

 

Green Bay Packers

2021 Cap Space: -$27M (based on $175M cap)
Players Under Contract: 45
Extension Candidate: OC Corey Linsley  ($9M)
Notable Free Agents:

As was the case this past offseason, the biggest storyline will be the immediate future of QB Aaron Rodgers, who despite 3 yrs, $74.3M remaining on his contract, leaves us with the notion that his status in Green Bay - or possibly in the NFL - is very much in question. The Packers may opt to move on from a few more notable names on the defensive side of the ball to free up cap space (Preston Smith, Christian Kirksey, Dean Lowry, etc…).

 

Kansas City Chiefs

2021 Cap Space: -$18M (based on $175M cap)
Players Under Contract: 40
Extension Candidate: FS Tyrann Mathieu ($13M)
Notable Free Agents:

The Chiefs suddenly have a bit of a dire offensive line problem with two key pieces set to hit the market, the return of Laurent Duvernay-Tardif questionable, and LT Eric Fisher suffering an Achilles injury that will require a lengthy recovery. Restructuring Frank Clark, Tyreek Hill, & Travis Kelce’s salaries will free up quite a bit of space, but KC will be limited in how much they can add or retain this offseason.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2021 Cap Space: $28.6M (based on $175M cap)
Players Under Contract: 30
Extension Candidate: WR Chris Godwin ($17M)
Notable Free Agents:

Don’t let the $28M of potential cap space fool you, with only 30 players under contract, and many of their free agents set for big time paydays, it’s going to be a tall order to retain this Super Bowl roster going forward. Extensions for Donovan Smith, JPP, & even Brady could clear a good amount of cap, while star DT Vita Vea will likely also be in for a raise this offseason.

NFL Playoff Extension Candidates

Michael GinnittiJanuary 09, 2021

Lamar Jackson, QB, 24

Market Valuation: $43.7M
In his own unique way, Lamar Jackson has put together back to back seasons that calculate to a gigantic payday. But does the eyetest match the stats? He’s averaging almost 75 rushing yards, but under 200 passing yards per game over the past two seasons. He has 76 TDs across 2019/2020 both with his arm and legs, just 4 behind Patrick Mahomes. A playoff win or two could make this payday a reality.

 

Josh Allen, QB, BUF, 24

Market Valuation: $40.5M
Allen needed a big third year to supplant himself as the Bills’ franchise QB. He’s done that and then some, finishing the 2020 regular season as a legitimate MVP candidate. He now projects to the second highest contract in NFL history. Allen has a $3.5M salary in 2021, then a 5th year option in 2022 available on his rookie contract should Buffalo want to hold off on extending him.

 

Allen Robinson, WR, CHI, 27

Market Valuation: $19.8M
Robinson has been one of the more underappreciated WRs in the game throughout his career, but Bears QBs have been better when he’s been on the field. His production holds up with the likes of Amari, Keenan, Michael Thomas, etc… and his next payday should reflect that (wherever it comes from).

 

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, CHI, 26

Market Valuation: $8.5M
If the Bears win two rounds & Trubisky is a big reason why, there’s likely a franchise tag in his future. If not, the financial fall will massive. QBs who hit the market after their rookie contract just simply aren’t getting the same respect they used to, and are settling for “prove-it” deals ranging from Mariota’s 2 year, $17.6M deal in Vegas, down to Jameis & Cam’s near minimum contracts. A 1 year, $6M-$8M contract with a load of incentives seems to make sense.

 

Baker Mayfield, QB, CLE, 25

Market Valuation: $32.3M
A rough 2019 has Baker trending more toward Ryan Tannehill money than Patrick Mahomes, but 2020 has been a very different story. The Browns may wait a year to make sure the consistency sticks, but overpaying a little today may mean value a few years down the road.

 

Aaron Jones, RB, GB, 26

Market Valuation: $14M
Jones is dynamic both in the run and pass game, & has been a TD machine for the Packers over the past few seasons. With the franchise tag for the running back likely to drop under $10M for the upcoming season, this seems a no brainer for the two sides.

 

Corey Linsley, C, GB, 29

Market Valuation: $9.1M
The top centers in the game make $12M now, and Linsley was having a great year (#1 ranked according to PFF) before a knee injury paused his season. He'll likely garner a raise, but i'm not sure it'll be drastic.

 

Darius Leonard, LB, IND, 25

Market Valuation: $19M
Leonard is a bit of a hybrid linebacker, who trends more toward pass rush then he does the run stop. In light of this, his valuation sits above the ILB threshold of $18M, and has a chance to push north of $20M now with players like Myles Garrett, Joey Bosa, etc well above this mark. Leonard holds a $1.4M salary for 2021, the final year of his rookie contract.

 

T.Y. Hilton, WR, IND, 31

Market Valuation: $10.1M
Hilton still has big games in him, but at 31 the bigtime paydays are likely in his past. He comps well with Golden Tate, who locked in a 3 year deal at just under $10M per year. Hilton will likely test the market for a price, but returning to Indy seems to make a ton of sense.

 

Xavier Rhodes, CB, IND, 30

Market Valuation: $7.3M
The top corners in the game now make $20M per year, and while Rhodes is 30, he ranked 12th among all CBs in 2020 according to PFF. Our valuation provides Rhodes with double the compensation he pulled in this past season ($3.75M).

 

Austin Reiter, C, KC, 29

Market Valuation: $11.4M
Tough to imagine the best QB in the game letting his center get away, though the transition from Mitch Morse to Reiter was fairly seamless. The Chiefs may not be able to afford this one…

 

John Johnson, S, LAR, 24

Market Valuation: $8.5M
Johnson has quietly been a gem in the secondary for the Rams over the past 3 1/2 seasons. The former 3rd round pick is inline for a nice raise, especially if he hits the open market.

 

Marcus Williams, S. NO, 24

Market Valuation: $9.5M
It’ll take plenty of creativity from the Saints front office to keep this roster intact, but Williams has been a top 10 safety over the past two seasons, and will likely require $10M+.

 

James Conner, RB, PIT, 25

Market Valuation: $5.4M
The pending free agent has had issues staying on the field, but he’s a more than serviceable running back when healthy. Mark Ingram’s 3 year, $15M contract seems to be a good comp here.

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, PIT, 24

Market Valuation: $15.6M
The shine rubbed off a bit on JuJu in 2020, as he joins a loaded list of WRs set to hit the open market. His current valuation puts him inline with the deal Cooper Kupp just signed in LA.

 

Chris Carson, RB, SEA, 26

Market Valuation: $7M
Fumbles and a lack of production in the passing game keep Carson’s valuation tempered. He’s likely looking at a deal similar to the 2 year, $16M one Melvin Gordon locked in with the Broncos, and Seattle should strongly consider keeping him.

 

K.J. Wright, LB, SEA, 31

Market Valuation: $8.5M
Age isn’t slowing Wright down, who’s having maybe his best season to date at 31. Seattle needs to improve defensively across the board, but a 2 year, $17M extension here probably makes sense.

 

Chris Godwin, WR, TB, 24

Market Valuation: $17.1M
Godwin on the open market has a chance to really find some money. The $17M+ here represents his role as a WR2 with plenty of weapons around him. But a team looking for a true WR1 (Miami, Houston, etc) would have to value him as such.

 

Shaq Barrett, LB, TB, 28

Market Valuation: $19.5M
Barrett turned a prove it deal into a franchise tag. He was never going to repeat his 19.5 sack, 6 forced fumble performance from 2019, but an 8 sack, 57 tackle year is probably about right going forward. Our math wants to make him a near $20M pass rusher, but conventional logic says he’s probably more in store for a cap adjusted version of Preston Smith’s $13M per year deal.

 

Corey Davis, WR, TEN, 25

Market Valuation: $10M
6 months ago this would've seemed impossible, but Davis & Tannehill have clearly found something in the final year of his rookie contract. If Tennessee considers him a viable WR2 going forward, the $10M price tag seems about right.

 

Jonnu Smith, TE, TEN, 25

Market Valuation: $8M
An underrated weapon at a position with not many superstars, Jonnu Smith is a pending free agent with a strong payday in his future, wherever it comes from.

 

Brandon Scherff, OG, WAS, 29

Market Valuation: $11.5M
Scherff is having his best season to date on the franchise tag, and despite a mathematical valuation of $11.5M, should push to reset the guard market at $14M+ this offseason. WFT’s O-Line has been great, and should be worth paying to keep together.

 

Ronald Darby, CB, WAS, 27

Market Valuation: $10.5M
Darby’s been playing on one year near minimum deals for the past two seasons, but has been outstanding after taking almost every single snap for WFT in 2020. A multi-year extension somewhere in the 4 for $40M range makes sense for both sides.



NFL Offseason Trade Candidates

Michael GinnittiJanuary 05, 2021
While many if not most NFL teams will be scrambling to shed cap dollars this offseason, those few who possess space will be ready to pounce. In light of this, we may see an unusual amount of trades, including those featuring notable names across the league. Here's a list of players who could fit that bill, including the total dead cap to remain with their current team, & the contract to be acquired by a new team should a trade be processed.
Team Player POS Dead Cap traded contract Thoughts
ARI Andy Isabella (24) WR $693,588 2 yrs, $2M Isabella has barely found the field through two seasons with the Cardinals. If Larry Fitzgerald returns, there just doesn't appear to be a role for him here.
ATL Julio Jones (31) WR $23.25M 3 yrs, $38M With Calvin Ridley ready to take a bigger role, the time may be right for Atlanta to opt for the draft assets that would come with a Jones trade. A post June 1st move would mean dead cap hits of $7.75M in 2021, & $15.5M in 2022.
BUF Vernon Butler (26) DT $1M 1 yr, $6.85M Buffalo will welcome back Star Lotuleilei to this role, putting Butler's spot on notice. He's a fairly inexpensive rental for a team in need.
CHI Buster Skrine (31) CB $3.3M 1 yr, $5M The Bears' secondary suffered a slew of injuries in 2020, & will likely be a focus in the upcoming draft. Skrine's low-buy rental contract should hold trade value.
CIN Bobby Hart (26) RT $1M 1 yr, $5.9M Hart has been a serviceable optio, but upgrade the O-Line should be a major focus for Cincy this offseason.
CLE David Njoku (24) TE $0 1 yr, $6M

Njoku's 5th-year option fully guarantees on the 1st league day of the year, which could have some bearing on his trade value. An outright release is more likely here.
DAL Ezekiel Elliott (25) RB $14.9M 6 yrs, $75M It's highly unlikely, but the Cowboys may need to trade offensive money for defensive spending this offseason. There's a world where a Miami, or Seattle, or Arizona go all-in with their running game for the next few seasons. Zeke's deal carries 2 years, $22M guaranteed thru 2022. A Post June 1st trade means $4.1M of 2021 dead cap for Dallas, & another $10.8M in 2022.
DET Matthew Stafford (32) QB $19M 2 yrs, $43M It remains to be seen what a new regime for Detroit means for Stafford, but it appears on the surface that his time with the Lions may be coming to a close. There's a $10M roster bonus due in early March, so a trade (or outright release) may headline the 2021 league year. Would a Stafford for Garoppolo swap make sense for both?
HOU Deshaun Watson (25) QB $21.6M 5 yrs, $146.5M Watson's discontent with the past year's worth of decisions in Houston now has this situation on high alert. There's still $82.5M guaranteed over the next three years, and a no-trade clause in Watson's favor as well. We're talking a player or two plus 5-6 Top 100 draft picks as legitimate compensation for a move like this.
HOU J.J. Watt (31) DE $0 1 yr, $17.5M Watt made it know publicy that he was dissatisfied with how 2020 unfolded in Houston, & it may have been a parting shot. He'll be entering a contract year in 2021, with no dead cap attached to the contract.
LAC Chris Harris (31) CB $3.75M 1 yr, $7.5M The Chargers will likely need to pick between Harris or Casey Hayward this offseason. Harris' deal offers a nice rental move for a team looking to acquire veteran secondary depth.
NE Stephon Gilmore (29) CB $7.6M 1 yr, $7.5M It's tough to imagine Gilmore playing out a $7.5M season, & it's even tougher to imagine the Patriots paying him competitively going forward. There's gas left in the tank, and New England is looking to build up as many draft picks as possible right now.
NYJ Sam Darnold (23) QB $5M 1 yr, $4.7M It stands to reason that the Jets will draft Darnold's replacement this April, putting his roster spot on notice. He's shown 1st round talent at times, & certainly hasn't had a proper supporting cast - or offensive line - in his early career. Teams moving on from veteran QBs (WFT, NO, PIT, DET, SF) should all be interested here. It should be noted that the decision on Darnold's 5th-year option needs to be made by May 3rd, & exercising it means it's fully guaranteed.
PHI Carson Wentz (27) QB $33.8M 4 yrs, $100M There's simply no way around the fact that trading Carson Wentz will be a terrible business move - however, it still appears this may happen. So let's unpack the simplest way to go about it: As soon as the league year begins, the Eagles trade Carson Wentz and his $40M guaranteed over the next two seasons, to the Colts. The move means $33.8M of dead cap to the Eagles, all in 2021. Wentz currently holds a $34.6M cap hit for 2021, meaning this trade would clear $853,000 of cap space. Crazy right? Yes, HOWEVER, the Eagles already have their starting QB under contract on the cheap. If Wentz's roster spot is replaced by a rookie or UDFA, that will account for $660,000 of cash/cap - meaning Philly still comes out in the black here. It's gross, but so was Carson's play this season.
PIT Joe Haden (31) CB $2.975M 1 yr, $7M Haden is still a solid option in the secondary, but he's lost a step and his advanced metrics are really behind. All that said, it's possible Pittsburgh can find a buyer for a $7M rental with his experience.
SF Dee Ford (29) DE $14.3M 3 yrs, $50M It just hasn't gone as planned for Ford and the 49ers, and an outright release is more likely on the table here. But with no guarantees left on the deal, it's possible a trade & restructure fits the bill for a team in need. Jimmy Garoppolo is an obvious trade candidate here as well, though it's not a sure thing.
TB O.J. Howard (25) TE $0 1 yr, $6M His $6M option fully guarantees on the first league day, and it's unclear when he'll recover from his achilles injury to pass a physical, but regardless - it still makes sense for Tampa Bay to entertain offers on the tight end.
TEN Kenny Vaccaro (29) S $3M 2 yrs, $11.5M The Titans are likely in store for many changes on the defensive side of the ball. Vaccaro is still a solid player, who could thrive in a different system, & comes at a reasonable cost. There may be a suitor if Tennessee seeks one.

2021 NFL Roster Bubbles

Michael GinnittiDecember 29, 2020

Our annual NFL Roster Bubble report comes with a new twist this year, as teams will be operating under the impression that the NFL salary cap will be going down for the first time since the hard cap returned. We've identified players from each NFL team who may be trending toward the 2021 roster bubble, based on performance vs. compensation & dead cap structure. Others may fall on this list simply because they're in need of a restructure, or are trending toward retirement. We'll continue to update this list as new reports emerge.
Did we miss someone? Send suggestions to @spotrac.

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Jump to a Position:
QB RB WR TE OL DL EDGE LB CB SAF S/T
Quarterbacks
Player Team Pos AGE 2021 Cap Details
Matt Ryan ATL QB 35 $40,912,500 A Post June 1st release would mean dead cap hits of $23.4M in 2021 (including $5.5M cash), & another $26.5M for 2022. A Post June 1st trade means $17.9M in 2021, & $26.5M in 2022, while the receiving team would pick up a 3 year, $75M contract, but just $5.5M guaranteed in 2021.
Jeff Driskel DEN QB 27 $3,250,000 With both Drew Lock & Brett Rypien under contract for much less cap, it would make sense for Denver to take the $2.5M saved here and use it elsewhere.
Matthew Stafford DET QB 32 $33,000,000 There's a $10M roster bonus due March 21st, so trading or releasing him prior to this would make the most financial sense for DET ($19M dead cap, $14M saved).
Derek Carr LV QB 29 $22,125,000 With $2.5M of dead cap left on this contract (trade or release), if the Raiders want to move on, they'll have no financial trouble doing so.
Marcus Mariota LV QB 27 $10,725,000 If the plan is to move Mariota into QB1, then this is a great price. But as a QB2, $10.725M is much too high to stick with. It can all be cleared via release or trade.
Kirk Cousins MIN QB 32 $31,000,000 It would be a remarkable business move, but there's a world in which Minnesota takes on a $41M dead cap hit ($21M cash) this March and moves on from Cousins. It would mean a $10M cap loss in 2021, but $45M cleared in 2022 (including $35M cash). His 2022 salary fully guarantees on March 19th.
Drew Brees NO QB 41 $36,150,000 With retirement likely, Brees stands to leave behind $22.65 of dead cap per the dummy years built into his contract, freeing up $13.5M.
Sam Darnold NYJ QB 23 $9,794,271 Darnold's status will remain unclear until draft day. He has a $3.8M roster bonus due at the start of training camp, so a trade prior to that would clear $4.7M
Carson Wentz PHI QB 27 $34,673,536 It's complicated. There's $33.8M of dead cap per a trade, which increases if the $10M roster bonus is paid on March 19th. An outright release is out of the question.
Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB 38 $41,250,000 If he returns, it won't be on a league-high $41.25M, so a restructure will be imminent. If he walks away, it means $22.25M of dead cap staying with Pittsburgh ($19M saved).
Mason Rudolph PIT QB 25 $1,247,867 It doesn't appear as though Rudolph will be the heir apparent in PIT, & with $1.01M to be saved, moving out may be imminent.
Jimmy Garoppolo SF QB 29 $26,400,000 An injury-plagued stint in SF is likely coming to a close. With just $2.8M of dead cap on his contract ($23.4M to be saved), the 49ers hold his fate here.
Alex Smith WAS QB 36 $24,400,000 WFT is better with Smith at the helm, but there will be other veteran options available should they look to upgrade. There's $13.6M to be cleared should he be released or traded ($10.8M dead cap).
Dwayne Haskins WAS QB 23 $3,931,803 Haskins has $4.26M fully guaranteed cash, $8.5M of total dead cap remaining on his deal. WFT would lose $2.46M of 2021 cap space on a Post June 1st release, but the writing still seems on the wall.

 

Running Backs
Player Team Pos AGE 2021 Cap Details
Mark Ingram BAL RB 31 $6,333,334 Ingram still holds value as an RB2 here, but Baltimore simply may need the $5M saved to move on from him ($1.3M dead cap).
Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB 25 $13,700,000 His $9.6M salary for 2021 is already fully guaranteed, and his $12.4M salary for 2022 locks in on March 21st. Can the Cowboys find someone to take on a 2 year $22M contract? If so, a Post June 1st trade would mean dead cap hits of $4.1M in 2021, & $10.8M in 2022, clearing $9.6M next season.
David Johnson HOU RB 29 $9,000,000 $2.1M of his $7.95M salary for 2021 is already fully guaranteed, & a $300,000 bonus kicks in March 19th. It still seems imminent that Houston will move on, clearing $6.9M of cap space ($2.1M dead cap/cash).
Duke Johnson HOU RB 27 $5,025,000 The less expensive Johnson likely has a better chance of sticking in the final year of his contract, but it's possible the Texans do a major roster purge this offseason. There's $5M+ to be saved here should a release or trade be administered.
Jalen Richard LV RB 27 $3,500,000 While this won't be a necessary move, the Raiders can clear the full $3.5M by moving on this March. Space that can be used to fill other holes.
Sony Michel NE RB 25 $3,063,040 $1M of Michel's 2021 salary is fully guaranteed, factoring into $2.3M of dead cap. While a release only clears $756k of cap space, it still seems as though these two sides are headed for a breakup.
Latavius Murray NO RB 30 $4,200,000 Murray has been extremely valuable to this Saints offense for 4 years, so a restructured extension could very well be in play here. There's $2.5M to be saved here via a trade or release otherwise ($1.7M dead cap).
Rashaad Penny SEA RB 24 $3,425,367 Injuries have dominated Penny's rookie contract, & with only $580k of his 2021 salary guaranteed, it could mean the end in Seattle. The Seahawks can clear about $1.4M of cap space ($2M dead cap) per a release.
Peyton Barber WAS RB 26 $1,640,000 The one-two punch of Antonio Gibson & J.D. McKissic has been more than adequate, and if WFT can get any kind of production from Bryce Love, they'll be in good shape here. Moving on from Barber frees up $1.34M of cap space.

 

Wide Receivers
Player Team Pos AGE 2021 Cap Details
Julio Jones ATL WR 31 $23,050,000 Julio has 3 years, $38M left on his deal & a $23M cap number for 2021. If the new Falcons' regime is looking to dial things back, stocking up on draft picks by trading Jones makes sense. A Post June 1st trade frees up $15.3M next season, adding dead cap hits of $7.75M in 2021, $15.5M in 2022.
Miles Boykin BAL WR 24 $1,064,232 Though he's incredibly inexpensive, Boykin can't seem to find his place in this Baltimore offense. With only $428k of dead cap on the deal, moving on in some fashion is very doable.
John Brown BUF WR 30 $9,750,000 Brown has rejuvenated his career with the Bills, & has a clear connection with QB Josh Allen. But an injury plagued 2020 + a big step forward from Gabriel Davis could mean he's an odd man out come 2021. There's $8.15M to be cleared if he's traded or released before a $500,000 roster bonus is paid March 21st.
Odell Beckham, Jr. CLE WR 28 $15,750,000 OBJ was having a nice season prior to his ACL tear, and should be considered to be loosely on the roster bubble for 2021. $12.8M of his salary is already fully guaranteed, so this would be a trade scenario only, a move that would free up the full $15.75M, and $45M of cash over the next three seasons.
Amari Cooper DAL WR 26 $22,000,000 Cooper's on pace for a 90 catch season without Dak Prescott, so he's certainly holding his own, but with CeeDee Lamb & Michael Gallup capable options, flipping Amari for much needed draft picks could make sense. His $20M salary is already fully guaranteed, but there's $14M of space to be had.
Tyrell Williams LV WR 28 $11,600,000 The Raiders have paid $21M for 42 catches, and likely won't consider the remaining $23M. His entire $11.6M cap figure comes off via a trade or release.
Mike Williams LAC WR 26 $15,680,000 With Keenan Allen locked up, keeping Williams on his 5th year option price may not make sense. A restructured extension is certainly in the cards, but LAC can get out of this contract prior to the start of 2021 with no dead cap charge.
Albert Wilson MIA WR 28 $5,158,334 Wilson opted out of 2020, and with the team taking a major step forward without him
Julian Edelman NE WR 34 $6,666,666 The cap hit & cash payout ($4M) is certainly tenable, but Edelman himself will likely be looking for a change of scenery if the Patriots slide into a full rebuild. There's $4M to be saved for New England here.
Emmanuel Sanders NO WR 33 $10,000,000 Despite a typical season, the Saints are going to have to make some tough choices with their finances in 2021. There's a fully guaranteed $2M roster bonus due March 21st, so a trade would be ideal, freeing up $6M of space for NO.
Golden Tate NYG WR 32 $10,852,942 Tate fell out of favor quite spectacularly this season, so the $6M to be saved ($4.7M dead cap) from moving on seems a no brainer at this point. The Giants will be a destination for a bonafied WR1 via trade/draft/free agency this spring.
Jamison Crowder NYJ WR 27 $11,500,000 Crowder is a nice veteran option especially for a young (potentially new) QB, but if the Jets are looking to break it all down, the $10.5M to be saved ($1M dead cap) here will be the right approach.
Alshon Jeffery PHI WR 30 $18,486,500 Philly will likely designate Jeffrey a Post June 1st release as soon as possible, meaning $5.5M of dead cap for 2021 ($12.95M saved), & another $5M in 2022.
DeSean Jackson PHI WR 34 $10,934,000 Jackson still has plenty of production in him, but he'll need to redo his contract either here or elsewhere to continue on. Philly can clear $5.1M in space to move on ($5.8M dead cap).
Marquise Goodwin PHI WR 30 $4,450,000 Goodwin opted out of 2020, and his cap figure is certainly doable, but it stands to reason that Philly will be looking to get cheaper in a lot of spots - especially if they need to keep Carson Wentz on the books.
Adam Humphries TEN WR 27 $9,750,000 He's struggled to stay on the field for TEN, and can free up $7.25M of space as a Post June 1st release ($2.5M of dead cap each of 2021, 2022).

 

Tight Ends
Player Team Pos AGE 2021 Cap Details
Nick Boyle BAL TE 27 $7,833,334 Boyle missed the second half of 2020 with a bad knee injury, so bringing him back on a near $8M cap figure seems unlikely. The $2.3M of dead cap means $5.5M to be saved.
Jimmy Graham CHI TE 34 $10,000,000 Graham has a no trade clause (honestly), so it'll take an outright release to free up the $7M of space to be had here. He's been much more productive than advertised, but handing the keys to a much more inexpensive Cole Kmet probably makes sense.
David Njoku CLE TE 24 $6,013,000 The Browns exercised Njoku's option for 2021, but it won't become fully guaranteed until the first league day. They can release him prior to that with no dead cap incurred.
Jack Doyle IND TE 30 $5,850,000 Now north of 30, and with other options on the roster, Doyle's probably on the backside of his tenure with Indy.
Tyler Eifert JAX TE 30 $6,125,000 If the Jaguars lock in the #1 overall pick, keeping the veteran Eifert in the fold porbably makes sense. Otherwise, there's $5M to be saved ($1.125M dead cap) if Jacksonville so desires.
Kyle Rudolph MIN TE 31 $9,450,000 Irv Smith Jr. is clearly the next man up, making Rudolph's cap figure too rich to swallow. Desiginating him a Post June 1st release means $8M of cap space saved ($1.45M of 2021 dead cap, $2.9M of 2022 dead cap).
Josh Hill NO TE 30 $3,355,000 The Saints need to cut costs, and there's $2.605M to be cleared with a move here.
Zach Ertz PHI TE 30 $12,471,500 Injuries have tempered his 2020 season, and the Eagles will be looking to cut costs on the offensive side of the ball this offseason. An early release means $4.7M saved, while giving Ertz a chance to find work elsewhere quickly.
Vance McDonald PIT TE 30 $7,927,500 Both McDonald & Eric Ebron see their cap figures rise greatly in 2021, putting both in the bubble conversation. With McDonald being the less productive of the two in the passing game the near $8M hit seems less doable. An outright release means $5.2M saved ($2.27M dead cap).
Eric Ebron PIT TE 27 $8,500,000 Ebron never geled with Big Ben the way early reports said he might, but still found himself north of 50 receptions. A $500,000 roster bonus due March 21st likely means a decision will come early. There's $6.5M to be saved if they move on prior to the payment.
Cameron Brate TB TE 29 $6,500,000 Brate's fate likely hangs on the future of Rob Gronkowski in Tampa Bay. With OJ Howard set to rejoin the fold in 2021, Brate as a 3rd option is much too pricey to handle. The Bucs can clear all $6.5 of his salary with a trade or release.

 

Offensive Line
Player Team Pos AGE 2021 Cap Details
James Carpenter ATL OG 31 $6,458,333 With no more guarantees remaining on his deal, Carpenter's contract is now in the hands of the Falcons, who can clear $4M per a trade or release ($2.4M dead cap).
Matt Paradis CAR OC 31 $10,330,000 One of the best value centers while on his rookie contract with the Broncos, Paradis hasn't been able to recreate that magic since his payday with the Panthers. Carolina will be focusing on the defensive side of the ball most of the offseason, but there's $8.5M of cap to be cleared here as a post June 1st release if they want it ($1.8M dead cap in 2021, $3.6M in 2022).
Bobby Massie CHI RT 31 $9,300,000 Massie has shown he can be an adequate option when he's healthy, but that's been easier said than done of late. With the guaranteed money now out of his contract, there's $6.7M of cap to be saved ($2.6M dead cap).
Bobby Hart CIN RT 26 $6,900,000 Advanced metrics haven't been good to Hart since he joined Cincy in 2018. It's hard to imagine the Bengals keeping him in the fold as their highest paid lineman next season. A release means $5.9M saved ($1M dead cap).
Joe Dahl DET OG 27 $3,125,000 After two extremely team friendly cap years, Dahl's hit pushes north of $3M in 2021. With $2.875M of that to be cleared by moving on, a Lions team looking to shuffle a few pieces may opt of the space ($250,000 dead cap).
Nick Martin HOU OC 27 $8,750,000 One of the worst-rated centers according to PFF, and just $2.5M of dead cap against his 2021 salary, Houston holds the keys to Martin's immediate future. One would reason that the $6.25M to be saved would win out here.
Anthony Castonzo IND LT 32 $16,000,000 The Colts would certainly welcome him back, but there's a solid chance Castonzo walks away from the game this offseason, including $16M cash set to be earned in 2021. $6M of that is a roster bonus due March 21st, so a quick decision will be required here.
Mitchell Schwartz KC RT 31 $10,005,000 Schwartz is likely to finish 2020 on the sidelines with a back injury, putting his 2021 status in question. There's a $1M roster bonus due in early March, with $6.25M of cap to be cleared per a trade or release prior to it ($3.75M of dead cap).
Trenton Brown LV RT 27 $14,000,000 After paying him $36.75M over the past two seasons, the Raiders can out from under this contract at no dead cap charge from here out. That means $14M to be saved should they desire. A restruture may also be in the cards.
Richie Incognito LV OG 37 $6,350,000 After an extremely reliable tenure with the Bills, Incognito has struggled to stay on the field with the Raiders, missing all but two weeks in 2020. The almost 38-year-old will be testing father time from here out, and Las Vegas can clear all $6.35M of cap per his release.
Riley Reiff MIN OT 32 $13,950,000 Reiff took a $5M pay cut prior to 2020 to save his spot, but that likely won't be the case for next season.With just $2.2M of dead cap on his contract, Minnesota can free up $11.75M of space to move on.
Andrus Peat NO OG 27 $11,600,000 The Saints just extended Peat this past March, so they'll need help to get out this offseason should they so desire. Trading him post June 1st means dead cap hits of $2.6M in 2021, & $7.8M in 2022 ($9M saved next season). The receiving team would take on a 2 year, $20M fully guaranteed contract.
Nate Solder NYG OT 32 $16,500,000 Solder opted-out of 2020, so NYG has already begun to move forward without him. It seems impossible he'll return under the current cap hit, and a post June 1st release designation frees up $10M of it ($6.5M of 2021 dead cap, $4M of 2022 dead cap).
Maurkice Pouncey PIT OC 31 $14,475,000 Restructures have his 2021 cap hit upwords of $14.5M, making him one of 7 Steelers players with a $14M+ cap figure currently allocated next season. If Ben returns, it's certainly likely that Pouncey does too, but they'll need to adjust this figure a bit. There's $8M to be saved should they move on ($6.475M dead cap).
Ryan Jensen TB OC 29 $10,000,000 Jensen had an outstanding 2019, but has slipped back into the mix in 2020 - despite being extremely reliable in his three years with the Bucs. TB can clear his full $10M without a dead cap hit if they look to upgrade here.

 

Defensive Tackles
Player Team Pos AGE 2021 Cap Details
Allen Bailey ATL DL 31 $6,125,000 The Falcons will spend much of their offseason looking to bolster a defense that kept them out of games this year. Moving on from Bailey frees up $4.5M ($1.6M dead).
Brandon Williams BAL DT 31 $14,424,000 He's missed games in each of the past two seasons, heavily restricting his ability to be productive. With $7.5M to be saved here ($6.9M dead cap), a restructured extension could be in play, but so could moving on entirely.
Vernon Butler BUF DT 26 $7,850,000 Butler had a solid 2020 campaign, but will likely fall out of the mix with Star Loutleilei returning in 2021. Moving on frees up $6.85M of cap space for the Bills ($1M of dead cap).
Kawann Short CAR DT 31 $20,839,000 After a 4-year stretch as one of the most dominant DTs in the game, injuries have kept him out of all but 5 games over the past two seasons. There's no chance the Panthers can bring him back on a near $21M cap figure, so taking on the $11M of dead cap is the move here ($9.8M saved).
Geno Atkins CIN DT 32 $14,800,000 Atkins has been in a bit of decline for the past two seasons, capped off with a shoulder injury that limited him to 8 games in 2020. There's 2 years, $25M remaining on his contract, but $9.6M of cap space to be cleared in 2021 if the Bengals move on.
Jurrell Casey DEN DT 31 $12,281,000 The Broncos have decisions to make with Von Miller & Justin Simmons, and will focus heavily on the defensive side of the ball in both the draft & free agency. Casey's current cap figure is likely too rich to swallow here. With no dead cap involved, Denver can clear the full $12.2M.
Nick Williams DET DL 30 $5,700,000 Williams has been an adequate role player, but the Lions will be looking to get younger and cheaper in a lot of spots this spring. A trade or release here clears $4.7M ($1M dead cap).
Dean Lowry GB DL 26 $6,300,000 It's no secret that the Packers' lack of run defense has hurt them at times in 2020. Lowry is having a typical season, & his cap figures going forward don't break the banks, but it stands to reason that an upgrade could be coming here. With $3M of dead cap, Green Bay can clear $3.3M of spaceby moving on.
Linval Joseph LAC DT 31 $11,500,000 Joseph's cap figure jumps up $6M next season, and there's a $2M roster bonus due March 19th, so if the Chargers' plan is to move on, it'll happen quickly. With $4M of dead cap on the deal, LAC can free up $7.5M.
Henry Anderson NYJ DL 29 $9,533,334 Folorunso Fatukasi & Quinnen Williams seem to have the interior portion of the Jets line locked down, putting Henry Anderson's role in question. His cap figure is certainly tolerable, but there's $8.2M to be cleared here of NY so desires.
Fletcher Cox PHI DT 30 $23,880,000 Two massive restructures have Cox's cap hit ($23.8M) & dead cap ($21M) in ugly situations. He's been the Eagles' best interior linemen yet again this season, so moving on doesn't make much football sense, but to stick around likely means another restructure - making 2022 even uglier.
Jarran Reed SEA DT 28 $13,500,000 The season-long stats aren't good, but Reed has been one of the reasons that Seattle's defense has turned a corner in 2020. Just 28 years old, a restructured extension probably makes sense for both sides here. There's $5M of dead cap on his 2021 salary.
Matthew Ioannidis WAS DT 26 $7,150,000 Missed all but 3 games due to a torn bicep, but has been one of the better options for WAS over the past two seasons. This defense is loaded, and there may be value in finding a trade a partner here ($3M of dead cap to move on).

 

Edge Defenders
Player Team Pos AGE 2021 Cap Details
Chandler Jones ARI OLB 30 $20,833,334 Jones is an outstanding player, & he had an outstanding 2019. The only reason he finds himself on this list is a near $21M cap figure, on an expiring contract, coming off of biceps surgery. A restructured extension is more likely to come from Arizona than a trade or release. There's $15.5M to be saved if the latter happens though ($5.3M dead cap).
Stephen Weatherly CAR DE 26 $7,950,000 Weatherly has a $1.25M roster bonus due March 19th, so the Panthers will need to act quickly if they want to free up the $5.95M of space to move on here ($2M dead cap).
Von Miller DEN OLB 31 $22,225,000 Miller has a club option coming out of a season missing ankle injury. It's safe to assume Denver won't be exercising this salary as is, but a restructured extension isn't out of the question here - especially with his heir apparent in Bradley Chubb not reaching expectations as of yet.$4.225M of dead cap sticks with the Broncos or moves on to the new contract.
Preston Smith GB OLB 28 $16,000,000 The Packers D has been a bit of Jekyll & Hyde this season, and Smith's $16M cap figure stands out as questionable going forward. There's a $4M roster bonus due March 19th, but before that, desiginating him a Post June 1st release frees up $12M of space.
J.J. Watt HOU DE 31 $17,500,000 For the first time in 10 years, Watt has expressed true discontent with how the Texans' organization has operated of late. Factoring in this plus major decline in production from the 31 year old, and it stands to reason he won't be back on his current $17.5M cap figure in 2021 - the final year of his contract. A trade then restructured extension may be in order, freeing up all $17.5M for Houston (no dead cap).
Dee Ford SF OLB 29 $20,785,000 SF reportedly wanted to get out of this contract almost immediately after signing it. The guaranteed portion of the deal falls off in 2021, with $14.3M of total dead cap on the books. If he's designated a Post June 1st release, there's $16M of 2021 cap space to be cleared here.
Carlos Dunlap SEA DE 31 $14,100,000 There's no question Dunlap has made a significant impact on Seattle's D, but his cap figure jumps up $12M for 2021. With no dead cap attached, a restructured extension likely works for both here.

 

Linebackers
Player Team Pos AGE 2021 Cap Details
Christian Kirksey GB ILB 28 $8,000,000 Kirksey is one of the worst rated LBs in 2020 according to PFF, and the Packers' defense is likely in for a major rehaul this offseason. There's a $1.5M roster bonus due March 19th, but prior to that there's $6M to be saved ($2M dead cap).
Anthony Hitchens KC ILB 28 $10,723,750 KC will need to get creative with a lot of contracts this offseason to keep this juggernaut rolling, but there will be casualties. Hitchens can likely be replaced through the draft in 2021, and there's $6.5M of cap space to be freed up by designating him a post June 1st release in March.
Dont'a Hightower NE ILB 30 $12,445,305 The Patriots are certainly better with Hightower (who opted out of 2020) on the field, but it's difficult to guage where the team's head will be come the offseason. If the plan is strip it down even more, Hightower's $12.4M cap figure doesn't make as much sense as the $9.9M of space to be had does ($2.5M of dead cap).
Kwon Alexander NO OLB 26 $13,400,000 Alexander has been dealing with an achillies issue to finish off 2020, and his cap figure jumps up $12.5M for 2021. A restructured extension is certainly possible, but remaining on this current contract is simply not. The Saints will free up all $13.4M by ripping up this deal.

 

Cornerbacks
Player Team Pos AGE 2021 Cap Details
Robert Alford ARI CB 32 $9,000,000 Arizona has paid out $15M to Alford for 0 snaps due to injury. It's tough to imagine they'll take a chance on any further payment from hereout. The Cardinals can free up $7.5M of cap by moving on.
Buster Skrine CHI CB 31 $6,100,000 With Kyle Fuller's cap figure currently set to jump to $20M in 2021, it stands to reason that Skrine's figure will become a casualty. Unfortunately for the Bears, an early release only frees up $2.8M of cap space, but every little bit helps.
Anthony Brown DAL CB 27 $5,750,000 Brown has held down the starting RCB role for much of 2020, but it stands to reason that Trevon Diggs will slide into that position sooner rather than later. With $3M of dead cap on the books, Dallas can free up $2.75M by moving on.
A.J. Bouye DEN CB 29 $11,908,088 Bouye's play has declined over the past two seasons, & a 6 game suspension for PEDs will carry over into 2021, putting his roster spot in peril. There's no dead cap associated with his 2021 salary, meaning Denver can free up all $11.9M by moving on.
Desmond Trufant DET CB 30 $12,500,000 A hamstring injury limited Trufant to just 6 games in 2020, after seeing just 9 games in 2019 with the Falcons. Although $3.5M of his 2021 salary is already fully guaranteed, it'll be tough to justify a $12.5M hit next season, & the Lions can free up $6.5M by moving on in early March.
Justin Coleman DET CB 27 $11,029,000 The Lions could be in for a whole new secondary come 2021, as both Desmond Trufant and Coleman missed significant time in 2020 and carry significant cap hits next season. With $6M of dead cap on his contract, there's $4M or so to be cleared should the Lions decide to move on, though that seems a but unlikely at this point.
Chris Harris LAC CB 31 $11,250,000 Both Chris Harris & Casey Hayward carry cap figures north of $10M in 2021, and it seems unlikely that both will remain as is. The case for moving on from Harris? He's more expensive, has a $2M roster bonus due March 19th, and hasn't been a face of this franchise for years. An early March release clears up $7.5M of space.
Casey Hayward LAC CB 31 $11,750,000 Hayward was outstanding in 2019, and actually brings a lower cap figure into 2021 than he carried in 2020. It seems likely both he and Chris Harris won't carry into the new season together. The case for moving on from Hayward? There's $9.75M to be cleared per a trade or release, and no time constraints in doing so.
Stephon Gilmore NE CB 30 $17,170,834 The final year of Gilmore's contract offers a high cap hit, but only $7.5M of cash to be doled out. This likely won't fly for Gilmore - nor will a rebuild in New England should that happen. A trade or release frees up $9.5M of space for the Patriots.
Patrick Robinson NO CB 33 $3,850,000 The Saints will need to cut costs across the board in 2021, and though Robinson's deal won't make a huge dent in that regard, every little bit help. With $1.25M of dead cap allocated into his final season, moving on means $2.6M to be saved.
Joe Haden PIT CB 31 $15,575,000 Haden and Steven Nelson have near identical contracts & identical production right now looking ahead to 2021. The Steelers may not be able to retain both at their current figures. Haden is the older of the two, and his deal provides $12.6M of savings to move on from him this March ($2.975M of dead cap).

 

Safeties
Player Team Pos AGE 2021 Cap Details
Tyrann Mathieu KC FS 28 $19,733,334 The versatile DB is only here because of the heightened level of his cap figure for 2021. With just $4.93M of dead cap attached, there's a significant amount of space to be freed up here one way or another. A restructured extension seems imminent.
LaMarcus Joyner LV FS 30 $11,200,000 The Raiders have paid out $22M of his contract, & while there's $20M more on the books, Las Vegas can free up $8.7M of space by moving on this March ($2.5M of dead cap).
Eric Rowe MIA SS 28 $5,050,000 With the guaranteed portion of his contract now by the wayside, Miami may opt to take the $4M of savings here ($1M of dead cap).
Landon Collins WAS CB 26 $17,200,000 Collins has been overpaid since the day he signed his contract back in June of 2015. Another $12.5M is set to become fully guaranteed on March 21st, but Washington can free up $13M of space by designating him a Post June 1st release prior to it ($4.2M of 2021 dead cap, $9.6M of 2022 dead cap).

 

Special Teams
Player Team Pos AGE 2021 Cap Details
Chris Jones DAL P 31 $2,500,000 Jones has been with the Cowboys since 2011, and he enters a contract year in 2021 carrying a $2.5M cap figure. With just $500,000 of dead cap attached to it Dallas may opt for the $2M of savings to use elsewhere.
Dan Bailey MIN K 32 $3,800,000 $1.8M of Bailey's 2021 salary becomes fully guaranteed on March 19th, so a release prior to this will clear $1.7M of cap space ($2.1M dead cap).
Thomas Morstead NO P 34 $4,500,000 Morstead is one of the lower rated punters in 2020 according to PFF, & his contract offers $2.5M of cap space to a Saints team very much in need of it next season. There will be a $2M dead cap hit to move on.
Riley Dixon NYG P 27 $2,925,000 His numbers are skewed slightly because of the usage a bad Giants offense has put him through in 2020, but with $2.6M of cap space to be saved, he can still be considered a bubble player.
Chris Boswell PIT K 29 $4,773,333 To be fair, Boswell has bounced back nicely in 2020 in terms of field goals made, but has been somewhat inconsistent in the extra point department. With only $1.4M of cap space to be saved by moving on, he's a fringe bubble player right now.
Robbie Gould SF K 38 $5,250,000 The 38-year-old has been outstanding for a long time, but slipped back into the "average" grouping in 2020. With a league high $5.25M option figure for 2021, the Niners may view the $3.75M of cap savings as a better business decision, though an extension to lower the cap hit could also be in play.

2020-21 NBA Financial Preview

Michael GinnittiDecember 19, 2020

Just 9 weeks removed from the Lakers hoisting the trophy, the NBA is back. The quick offseason didn't deter teams from spending big, extending their own, and of course - trading superstars. We'll break down many of those figures here in our 2020-21 NBA Financial Preview.


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2020-21 Opening Day Roster Spending

A look at how each NBA team is starting the season, including projected wins, starting 5 money, total cap allocations, & current cap & luxury tax space. Track cap, cash, & tax figures for each team here.

Notable Notes

  • Memphis carries almost $18M of dead cap this season, most in the league - including a $12.6M figure for Dion Waiters.
  • The Lakers & Clippers enter the season as the oldest teams in the league, 5 years older than the league low Timberwolves.
  • The teams with the lowest projected wins are also those with the lowest allocated cap - with the exception of Cleveland (Love, Drummond).
  • The projected starting 5 in Houston will account for $126M this year, $87M more than the league low Knicks ($39M)
  • 10 teams enter the season as projected to being over the luxury tax threshold, led by the Warriors (-$42M).
  • 18 of the 30 teams in the league are hard capped - mostly due to sign and trades.
Team Proj. Wins Avg. Age Starting 5 Cap Total Cap Cap Space Tax Space
ATL 36.5 25.2 $49,183,906 $114,695,055 $-5,555,055 $17,931,945
BOS 45.5 24.6 $54,666,392 $116,911,260 $-7,771,260 $15,715,740
BKN 45.5 26.6 $113,945,221 $155,951,226 $-46,811,226 $-23,324,226
CHA 25.5 23.9 $57,319,972 $105,070,579 $4,069,421 $27,556,421
CHI 30.5 25.3 $42,312,977 $122,505,867 $-13,365,867 $10,121,133
CLE 22.5 25.1 $73,264,926 $123,264,184 $-14,124,184 $9,179,204
DAL 42.5 26.1 $56,325,827 $126,480,222 $-17,340,222 $6,146,778
DEN 44.5 24.4 $115,965,884 $127,368,106 $-18,228,106 $5,258,894
DET 23.5 25 $77,248,197 $117,074,019 $-7,934,019 $15,552,981
GSW 36.5 25.7 $114,511,788 $172,824,610 $-63,684,610 $-40,381,222
HOU 34.5 27.1 $126,095,553 $137,493,015 $-28,353,015 $-5,224,494
IND 39.5 25.7 $92,975,000 $132,846,535 $-23,706,535 $-578,014
LAC 45.5 27.7 $107,429,861 $152,889,392 $-43,749,392 $-20,262,392
LAL 46.5 28.6 $95,599,666 $136,015,047 $-26,875,047 $-3,388,047
MEM 30.5 23.7 $52,442,652 $131,226,860 $-22,086,860 $1,400,140
MIA 44.5 27.6 $66,594,472 $123,704,154 $-14,564,154 $8,739,234
MIL 49.5 26.9 $102,671,320 $134,464,759 $-25,324,759 $-5,719,176
MIN 28.5 23.4 $87,441,895 $131,949,863 $-22,809,863 $2,778,325
NOP 36.5 24.8 $92,763,946 $130,059,857 $-20,919,857 $2,567,143
NYK 22.5 23.8 $39,308,771 $90,637,364 $18,502,636 $41,989,636
OKC 22.5 25.1 $47,261,913 $122,643,375 -$13,503,375 $37,018,197
ORL 31.5 25.6 $73,101,433 $129,812,621 $-20,672,621 $2,814,379
PHI 45.5 25.9 $123,990,682 $144,069,376 $-34,929,376 $-11,442,376
PHX 38.5 26.1 $94,577,228 $124,825,928 $-15,685,928 $7,801,072
POR 41.5 25.3 $87,845,283 $130,749,148 $-21,609,148 $1,877,852
SAC 27.5 24.9 $65,938,117 $124,227,888 $-15,087,888 $24,574,010
SAS 29.5 25.3 $79,639,031 $131,616,175 $-22,476,175 $1,010,825
TOR 41.5 26.2 $95,589,298 $129,128,921 $-19,988,921 $2,955,988
UTA 42.5 26.7 $90,937,121 $132,889,380 $-23,749,380 $-445,992
WAS 32.5 25.3 $82,821,210 $130,878,918 $-21,738,918 $842,216
AVG: 36 25.5 $81.9M $128.6M -$19.4M $4.3M

 

Active Roster Spending by Position

A look at how each NBA team is allocating it's salary cap money positionally to start the season. Track positional spending for each team in real-time here.

Notable Notes

  • The Rockets changed names but not numbers, ranking 1st in guard money, 24th in forwards, & 28th in centers to start the year.
  • A Chris Paul-less OKC will start the year with just $22M potted to guards, 22 guards make more than that on their own this year.
  • The Clippers & Lakers both made a point to get deeper in the middle, so its no surprise they lead the league in Forward pay.
Team G F C Total
ATL $53.48 $44.47 $16.00M $113.95M
BOS $84.39 $57.28 $14.29M $155.95M
BKN $81.88 $17.61 $16.29M $115.78M
CHA $33.75 $41.01 $21.27M $96.03M
CHI $47.48 $67.32 $7.70M $122.51M
CLE $35.19 $53.33 $34.57M $123.09M
DAL $46.66 $59.52 $18.68M $124.86M
DEN $55.78 $38.37 $33.22M $127.37M
DET $37.92 $68.21 $5.00M $111.14M
GSW $86.06 $75.85 $8.73M $172.16M
HOU $104.34 $31.36 $1.62M $137.32M
IND $61.72 $47.92 $20.96M $130.60M
LAC $79.70 $56.04 $17.16M $152.89M
LAL $37.08 $89.79 $2.56M $129.43M
MEM $45.54 $35.57 $32.29M $113.39M
MIA $29.12 $78.10 $9.40M $118.14M
MIL $43.76 $72.97 $12.70M $129.43M
MIN $76.45 $16.53 $35.99M $128.98M
NOP $52.76 $43.05 $34.25M $130.06M
NYK $36.47 $36.06 $6.66M $79.19M
OKC $21.30 $63.49 $0.00M $85.09M
ORL $51.20 $46.64 $31.97M $129.81M
PHI $63.31 $43.31 $37.32M $143.94M
PHX $79.97 $33.10 $11.76M $124.83M
POR $64.90 $36.17 $24.92M $125.99M
SAC $54.93 $46.45 $6.63M $108.00M
SAS $68.95 $48.44 $8.10M $125.50M
TOR $73.05 $46.47 $9.26M $128.78M
UTA $54.34 $41.41 $38.76M $134.51M
WAS $81.47 $30.10 $19.31M $130.88M
AVG: $58.2M $48.9M $17.9M $125.0M

 

Offseason Spending

A look at how each NBA team spent this offseason via trades, free agency, the draft, or by extending their own.

Notable Notes

  • With a diminished free agency season, extensions carried the day. Hence the Lakers, Bucks, & Clippers lead all teams in offseason dollars.
  • The Hornets added almost $30M of cap this year via the trade, while the Celtics and Thunder shed $37M & $35M respectively.
  • The Lakers added 7 players in free agency, totaling $261M in total contracts - $100M more than any other team.
  • Daryl Morey's first few months in Philly have been busy, but it's only cost him a net of $13.5M in total cash thus far.
 
Team Via Trade Via Extension Via Free Agency Via the Draft Total Spending
ATL $18,976,375   $160,599,318 $11,917,920 $191,493,613
BOS -$35,441,790 - $79,593,347 $5,514,240 $49,665,797
BKN -$40,509 $163,000,590 $21,543,653 $15,232,440 $199,736,174
CHA $29,500,000 - $123,500,000 $22,653,003 $175,653,003
CHI   - $6,795,594 $14,490,360 $21,285,954
CLE $2,192,389 - $7,911,463 $13,121,640 $23,225,492
DAL $4,828,953   $23,717,610 $12,295,409 $40,841,972
DEN -$16,856,520 $27,774,997 $34,542,868 $4,878,600 $50,339,945
DET $20,348,451 - $101,019,993 $10,879,800 $132,248,244
GSW $14,375,000   $4,570,044 $17,897,040 $36,842,084
HOU $3,385,474 - $54,248,769 - $57,634,243
IND -$2,808,844 - $23,947,727 - $21,138,883
LAC   $240,265,466 $90,952,947 - $331,218,413
LAL $-2,505,022 $125,655,529 $261,776,175 $4,028,040 $388,954,722
MEM $3,713,451 - $49,477,688 $6,731,283 $59,922,422
MIA   $163,898,900 $39,222,753 $5,293,440 $208,415,093
MIL $693,819 $228,200,826 $50,897,115 $6,912,811 $286,704,571
MIN --$3,258,470 - $81,037,320 $28,497,211 $109,534,531
NOP $3,664,098 $35,000,000 $163,289,563 $11,763,042 $213,716,703
NYK $9,611,120 - $25,742,000 $9,967,200 $45,320,320
OKC -$-31,193,307   $19,791,105 $4,316,160 $24,107,265
ORL   $130,000,000 $17,502,857 $6,734,520 $154,237,377
PHI -$9,888,662 - $8,198,207 $15,180,672 $13,490,217
PHX $7,915,743 - $75,737,043 $8,703,720 $92,356,506
POR $2,366,684 - $44,121,203 $8,814,451 $55,302,338
SAC -$698,310 $163,000,590 $11,088,555 $22,886,237 $196,277,072
SAS   $73,000,000 $31,544,220 $12,467,512 $117,011,732
TOR   $72,000,000 $121,989,446 $3,998,640 $197,988,086
UTA $-9,167,081 $368,000,590 $80,682,700 $4,052,880 $443,569,089
WAS -$7,525,927 - $91,599,158 $9,162,000 $93,235,231
TOTAL:   $1,789,797,488 $1,906,640,441 $298,390,271 $3,994,828,000

 

Notable 2021 Free Agents
Notable players currently set to become unrestricted free agents after the upcoming season (does not include players that currently have options). Track all free agents here
Player (3) TEAM Pos. Age Exp Type Rights 2020-21 AAV
Mike Conley UTH PG 33 14 UFA Bird $30,521,116
Paul Millsap DEN PF 36 14 UFA Bird $30,000,000
Kyle Lowry TOR PG 35 15 UFA Bird $30,500,000
DeMar DeRozan SAS SG 32 12 UFA Bird $27,800,000
Otto Porter Jr. CHI SF 28 11 UFA Bird $26,631,244
Andre Drummond CLE C 28 9 UFA Bird $25,434,263
LaMarcus Aldridge SAS PF 36 15 UFA Bird $25,000,000
Victor Oladipo IND SG 29 8 UFA Bird $21,250,000
Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL SG 29 8 UFA Bird $17,737,500
Dennis Schröder LAL PG 28 8 UFA Bird $17,500,000
Evan Fournier ORL SG 28 9 UFA Bird $17,000,000
Kelly Oubre Jr. GSW SF 25 6 UFA Bird $15,000,000

 

Potential NFL Contract Extension Candidates

Michael GinnittiDecember 10, 2020
Now in the final homestretch of the 2020 regular season, our focus begins to turn toward future roster construction, starting here with a notable potential contract extension candidates from each organization.
Team Player POS 2020 Cash Projected Avg. Salary Thoughts
ARI Haason Reddick (26) OLB $2.3M $9.1M Reddick is having his most productive year since the Cardinals declined his 5th year option 6 months ago. There's likely a Shaq Lawson type deal in his future, be it in Arizona - or on the open market. Patrick Peterson is also a name to watch here...
ATL Calvin Ridley (25) WR $1.4M $15M Ridley has WR1 potential, & has proven to be one of the best young WR2s in the game for 3 seasons. Atlanta has a serious cap problem for 2021, so this extension may need to wait - but it's on the horizon.
BAL Jimmy Smith (32) CB $3.5M $3.5M Smith & Richard Sherman will be 32 year old cornerbacks looking for new contracts this offseason. Smith has outplayed his current price, but with age and late injury now factored in, may need to accept something similar to stay in Baltimore. Both sides should be interested. Note: Lamar Jackson will be extension eligible after the 2020 season, but it's not apparent that the Ravens will make this a priority just yet.
BUF Josh Allen (24) QB $2.5M $39M Allen needed to take a step forward to put himself into a real conversation about a 2021 extensions - and he's done so. While he may never be the best QB in the league, he's been consistently above average for the better part of two years now. Luckily for him, being a Tier 2 QB right now should bag him close to $38M per year.
CAR Taylor Moton (26) RT $1.3M $15M Moton has entered himself into Tier 1 of RTs in the NFL, and will need to be paid as such. He'll follow in the footsteps of Jack Conklin, who recently locked in $14M with the Browns. WR Curtis Samuel  is also a candidate for a new deal.
CHI Allen Robinson (27) WR $13M $19M While the Bears haven't been, A-Rob has been consistently above average. His lack of an extension to date is less about his production, & more about Chicago trying to understand where they are in terms of contention. He's in the Amari Cooper/Keenan Allen money conversation.
CIN Jessie Bates III (23) FS $929k $14M The top-rated safety in the league according to PFF becomes extension-eligible after 2020. He'll be entering a contract year in 2021, so locking him up for the next few seasons probably makes sense. Bates may want to wait for Jamal Adams, Justin Simmons, & Minkah Fitzpatrick to sign new deals as the safety ceiling is sure to lift.
CLE Denzel Ward (23) CB $3.2M $18.5M

The Browns have had a lot of 1st round busts, but Ward isn't one of them. The CB market ceiling was shattered this offseason, & players like Ward will now benefit. He'll be eyeing Marlon Humphrey's $19.5M target.
DAL Dak Prescott (27) QB $31.4M $37.5M There's likely another franchise tag coming for Dak, but a multi-year extension shouldn't be far behind. Now a year older, and coming off of a severe injury, a deal in the 4/150 range probably makes sense. Dak can't be extended until after the 2020 regular season.
DEN Justin Simmons (26) FS $11.4M $14.5M The Broncos as a whole took a step back in 2020, and there could be wholesale changes coming to the defensive side of the ball. Simmons is still one of the best safeties in all of football, and he'll be highly coveted on the open market.
DET Kenny Golladay (26) WR $2.3M $19M Golladay's seen limited action in 2020 due to injury, and the Lions are now setup for new front office/coach going forward, meaning the notion of throwing $100M at a WR may not be in the immediate plans. A franchise tag seems extremely likely here.
GB Corey Linsley (29) OC $8.5M $9M The top centers in the game make $12M now, and Linsley was having a great year (#1 ranked according to PFF) before a knee injury pause his season. He'll likely garner a raise, but i'm not sure it'll be drastic. RB Aaron Jones is also in need of a new contract.
HOU Will Fuller  (26) WR $10.1M $17M It's complicated. Fuller will miss the remainder of 2020 & the first game of 2021 per his recent PED suspension. Factor that in with a string of injuries and there's a red flag hanging over his pending free agency. With that said, there's clearly a connection between he &Deshaun Watson.
IND Xavier Rhodes (30) CB $3.25M $6M The Colts took a flyer on Rhodes after he posted back to back tough seasons in Minnesota. It's paid off nicely, and a continued marriage between these two makes sense. Darius Leonard (25) also becomes extension eligible after 2020.
JAC Cam Robinson (24) OT $1.4M $11M Robinson has been consistently average in four years with the Jaguars. He projects to an extension literally half the cost of Laremy Tunsil's top tackle pay.
KC Tyrann Mathieu (28) FS $11.4M $12M Mathieu has 1 year $14.8M left on his current deal with the Chiefs, but carries a $19.7M cap figure for 2021. A restructured extension should be beneficial to both sides, guaranteed him about $30M while spreading out the cap charges.
LV Maurice Hurst (25) DT $750k $6M The former 5th round pick has been solid & improving each of this first 3 seasons. He's not a break the bank player, but his value to the team is worth a multi-year extension.
LAC Melvin Ingram (31) OLB $14M $12M He's still a heck of a player, but no longer the top option with Joey Bosa locked up for the foreseeable future. It's possible a Justin Houston type contract is his next move, taking a bit of a reduction to either stick with LA, or land with a contender.
LAR John Johnson  S $2.1M $8.5M Johnson has quietly been a gem in the secondary for the Rams over the past 3 1/2 seasons. The former 3rd round pick is inline for a nice raise, especially if he hits the open market.
MIA Ted Karras  OC $3M $10M Karras was brought over from New England to solidify the interior of the Miami line, and he's been an impact player. The center ceiling has soared of late, so keeping him around may be pricey.
MIN Brian O'Neill (24) RT $880k $7M The Vikings 2nd round pick a few years ago has progressed every year since, and becomes extension eligible for the first time this spring. His metrics don't jump off the page, but a Top 10 right tackle would mean nearly $8M per year.
NE David Andrews (28) OC $3M $7M A healthy Andrews means a better Patriots - it's that easy. Unfortunately with centers now paid $12M at the top, New England will need to at least double his current compensation. Cam Newton certainly has a chance to get himself in this conversation with a big finish.
NO Ryan Ramczyk (26) RT $1.6M $15M Ramcyzk has an $11M 5th year option in 2021, but the Saints need cap help & an extension here can lower that figure. He's been one of the best RTs in the game, valuing close to $16M
NYG Leonard Williams (26) DE $16M $12M

Not sure anyone has taken a bigger step forward than Williams has in this new Giants defense. He made outstanding money on the tag this year, but a long-term deal likely means less per year - more guaranteed. Dalvin Tomlinson  & Logan Ryan are definitely in the conversation here as well.
NYJ Marcus Maye (26) FS $1.3M $7.5M Maye has been above average for three years now, and one of the lone bright spots on the current Jets' roster. With the top safeties in the league earning almost $15M, a $7.5M valuation is merely a floor for his next contract.
PHI Brandon Graham (32) DE $11M $10M Even well into his 30s, Graham is grading out as a Top 10 edge defender in the game. He carries a $17M cap figure in 2021, so Philly could stand to restructure/extend him to help themselves, and keep him in the mix for another year or two.
PIT Cameron Sutton (25) CB $825k $7.5M The Steelers have a bounty of players on expiring contracts, but striking early with Sutton seems to make the most sense. Getting him under contract will allow Pittsburgh some leverage with other decisions (Joe Haden, Minkah Fitzpatrick). A lot will depend on what Ben Roethlisberger decides this spring.
SF Trent Williams (32) LT $12.5M $18M It seems like an absurd price for a 32 year old, but Williams has proven this year that he's still worth it. Oh and the left tackle market jumped up about $6M in the past few months. SF may be changing QBs in 2021, so locking in a sure-thing left tackle makes a ton of sense.
SEA Christopher Carson (25) RB $2.1M $7.5M Carson's biggest red flag is his ability to stay on the field - but what RB in the league doesn't have that going for them. The simple truth is that Russell Wilson's offense is better when Carson is in it. He comps almost identically to Todd Gurley's final two seasons in LA, so his $5.5M becomes Carson's floor. K.J. Wright is also in the conversation here, though upgrading the defense through the draft is likely a huge need for Seattle.
TB Lavonte David (30) LB $10.75M $13.5M I know, Bobby Wagner just scored $18M per year with almost identical comparables. But at some point, GMs are going to collectively admit that the non-pass rushing LB market is way too high. I'll bet on that being this year, and autocorrect the price point back to a modest raise with strong guarantees for David.
TEN Corey Davis (25) WR $4M $10M 6 months ago this would've seemed impossible, but Davis & Tannehill have clearly found something in the final year of his rookie contract. If Tennessee considers him a viable WR2 going forward, the $10M price tag seems about right.
WAS Chase Roullier (27) OC $2.1M $9.5M He's gotten better every year, & especially since veteran QB Alex Smith took over the reigns. It'll be difficult to pay both Roullier & OG Brandon Scherff this offseason, but there are worse ways to spend your money in the NFL.
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