Giannis Antetokounmpo made waves recently when he told The New York Times that he wouldn’t consider an extension with the Milwaukee Bucks until 2024, at the soonest. Antetokounmpo made it clear that he is prioritizing winning, as he moves into the second half of his career. The Bucks superstar wants to be sure that Milwaukee is committed to building a roster, and spending to do so, that can contend for titles.

Essentially, Antetokounmpo is exercising the superstar’s right of putting pressure on his team to keep pushing forward. Antetokounmpo even hinted that if Milwaukee starts talking about a rebuild, that he wants no part of that.

That means that we could be looking at a repeat of 2019 and 2020, when every team in the league was lining up to make a run at Antetokounmpo. Ultimately, he chose to stay with the only NBA home he’s known, and Antetokounmpo signed a Designated Veteran Extension.

The 6-foot-11 forward is now two seasons into that five-year extension he inked in the summer of 2020. Because the NBA was operating under an adjusted calendar due to COVID at the time, Antetokounmpo signed his extension in mid-December. That adjusted calendar, and the resulting carry-over impact, means Antetokounmpo isn’t eligible to sign a new extension with Milwaukee until September 22.

In order to understand what Antetokounmpo’s next contract might look like, we need to look at what he has left on his current deal. Here’s the three years remaining on that Designated Veteran Extension:

• • 2023-24: $45,640,084
  • 2024-25: $48,787,676
  • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (player option)

Because he still has either two or three years left on his deal, Antetokounmpo has a lot of options for how he can handle a new deal with the Bucks. That amount of time left and the player option in 2025-26 gives him the ability to approach extension talks in a number of different directions.

It’s also important to note that Giannis Antetokounmpo now has 10 years of service (How did that happen so quickly? Didn’t he just get to the NBA?). He’s eligible for the maximum amount possible, without any sort of Designated Player language being a factor.

Signing a Veteran Extension in 2023

On September 22 when he becomes extension-eligible, Giannis Antetokounmpo has two different options, if he wanted to extend this season. Yes, we know he said he wouldn’t do that, but we want to cover those options to paint a full picture.

Option 1 would see Antetokounmpo exercise his player option for the 2025-26 season and then add two new seasons onto his deal. That would look like this:

• • 2023-24: $45,640,084
  • 2024-25: $48,787,676
  • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (opted in)
  • 2026-27: $60,137,000
  • 2027-28: $64,947,960
  • Total: five years, $271,447,988
  • New salary: two years, $125,084,960

In this option, Antetokounmpo adds two new seasons and roughly $125 million on his deal. The first season of new money would hit in 2026-27 and is projected at a 35% of the cap maximum salary of $60,137,000. Antetokounmpo would add a second season of new salary at an 8% raise to $64,947,960.

Option 2 would see Antetokounmpo decline his player option for the 2025-25 season. He would then add three new seasons onto his deal. That would break down like this:

• • 2023-24: $45,640,084
  • 2024-25: $48,787,676
  • 2025-26: $54,670,000
  • 2026-27: $59,043,600
  • 2027-28: $63,417,000
  • Total: five years, $271,558,560
  • New salary: three years, $177,130,800

In this option, Antetokounmpo adds three new seasons and roughly $177 million, starting at 35% of the cap in 2025-26 at $54.7 million. In total, he would make slightly more money in Option 2 vs Option 1.

Signing a Veteran Extension in 2024

This option is far more likely, if only because Giannis Antetokounmpo told us directly that he wouldn’t consider an extension until 2024. In this case, he again has two different options.

Option 1 sees Antetokounmpo pick up his player for 2025-26. He would then add three years in new salary to his deal. That ends up looking like this:

• • 2024-25: $48,787,676
  • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (opted in)
  • 2026-27: $60,137,000
  • 2027-28: $64,947,960
  • 2028-29: $69,758,920
  • Total: five years, $295,566,824
  • New salary: three years, $194,843,880

In this option, the Bucks star adds three years at almost $195 million. He then bumps his total five-year value to about $295.5 million.

Option 2 would see Antetokounmpo opt out for 2025-26. He would then add four years of new salary to the one year he would have remaining on his deal. That extension looks like this:

• • 2024-25: $48,787,676
  • 2025-26: $54,670,000
  • 2026-27: $59,043,600
  • 2027-28: $63,417,000
  • 2028-29: $67,790,800
  • Total: five years, $293,709,276
  • New salary: four years, $244,921,600

This deal comes in slightly shy of the opt-in version. That’s because the cap is projected to go up 10% vs the 8% a player can get in a raise. So, while Antetokounmpo’s 2025-26 salary would be higher, his 2026-27 salary wouldn’t come in quite as high.

Signing a Veteran Extension in 2025

Giannis Antetokounmpo could take this into the final year of his contract. In that case, we’d see him opt in for the 2025-25. He could then add four years onto his deal. That would look like this:

• • 2025-26: $51,935,268 (opted in)
  • 2026-27: $60,137,000
  • 2027-28: $64,947,960
  • 2028-29: $69,758,920
  • 2029-30: $74,569,880
  • Total: five years, $321,349,028
  • New salary: four years, $269,413,760

This is the most lucrative option for Antetokounmpo in any extension. That’s because of the addition of a fourth year at roughly $74.5 million. That would push his total contract north of $320 million.

Signing with another team as a free agent in 2025

Let’s say the Bucks decide things have gotten too expensive, or that some of their players aren’t worth the big money they can command. In this scenario, Milwaukee starts talking about rebuilding, or at least resetting. And Giannis Antetokounmpo isn’t having it. He’s ready to see what it’s like playing somewhere else. The max he could sign for with another team would be:

• • 2025-26: $54,670,000
  • 2026-27: $57,403,500
  • 2027-28: $60,137,000
  • 2028-29: $62,870,500
  • Total: four years, $235,081,000

This is a four-year, maximum salary, starting at the projected 35% of the cap max of $54.7 million with 5% raises. Comparing Year 1 through Year 4 salaries only, this option is about $11.8 million shy of what Antetokounmpo could get by extending with the Bucks outright in 2025 (after opting in).

Re-signing with the Bucks as a free agent in 2025

Let’s say Antetokounmpo plays things out for the next two seasons, opts out, but decides to re-up with Milwaukee in the summer of 2025. He’d be eligible for the largest contract in NBA history. It would look like this:

• • 2025-26: $54,670,000
  • 2026-27: $59,043,600
  • 2027-28: $63,417,200
  • 2028-29: $67,790,800
  • 2029-30: $72,164,400
  • Total: five years, $317,086,000

This contract dwarfs any of the other options. Antetokounmpo would get over $317 million in total money (and that’s off relatively conservative projections right now!). In Year 1 through Year 4 comparisons, Antetokounmpo would make nearly $10 million more by re-signing with the Bucks over leaving Milwaukee. And this is again, slightly less than extending after opting in would be. This is again because cap growth of 10% projects to outpace the maximum 8% raises.

Re-signing with the Bucks as a free agent in 2026

This is the final option we’re going to present, and it’s probably the biggest longshot on the board. Let’s say Giannis Antetokounmpo plays out his full current contract through 2025-26, and then re-signs with Milwaukee on a maximum deal. That contract would look like this:

• • 2026-27: $60,137,000
  • 2027-28: $64,947,960
  • 2028-29: $69,758,000
  • 2029-30: $74,569,880
  • 2030-31: $79,380,840
  • Total: five years, $348,794,600

That’s nearly $350 million in total money for Antetokounmpo on a five-year, max deal. It’s almost an unfathomable amount, but that’s the reality of where we’re headed with these contracts in the new cap environment. This is where we’ll remind everyone that the starting salary of $60,137,000 is still 35% of the cap. That figure doesn’t change. It’s just that the cap is projected to go up somewhere between 4% and 10% every season for the foreseeable future.

Summary

Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to land one of the richest contracts in NBA history, no matter when and where he signs. But there are some important things to note.

First, we covered seasons ranging from 2023-24 (this season) through 2030-31 (eights seasons from now). Here are Antetokounmpo’s ages and years of service in each of those seasons:

• • 2023-24: Age 29, Year 11
  • 2024-25: Age 30, Year 12
  • 2025-26: Age 31, Year 13
  • 2026-27: Age 32, Year 14
  • 2027-28: Age 33, Year 15
  • 2028-29: Age 34, Year 16
  • 2029-30: Age 35, Year 17
  • 2030-31: Age 36, Year 18

Second, Antetokounmpo has already played more than 26,000 minutes in his career. He’s had some relatively serious injuries in the first 10 years of his career too.

When we add those things together, combined with Antetokounmpo’s direct comments on extending, as well as looking at the money at stake, it starts to make a much clearer picture.

We can rule out Antetokounmpo extending when he’s eligible near the end of September. He’s already told us he won’t be doing that.

We probably safely rule out Antetokounmpo playing out the three remaining seasons on his contract and signing a new five-year deal in 2026 too. Given his age, career mileage and injury history, Antetokounmpo won’t leave that much to chance.

We also probably rule out simply playing out his deal with the Bucks, opting out in 2025 and then re-signing with Milwaukee as a free agent. That’s almost as risky as playing out the entire remainder of his deal, and the financial upside really isn’t all that great.

That leaves two real options. Antetokounmpo extends with Milwaukee in 2024. Or he plays out the two final guaranteed seasons on his contract and leaves the Bucks as a free agent in the summer of 2025.

The guess here is Milwaukee will do whatever is necessary over the next two seasons to convince their franchise player that he should stay in the only NBA home he’s ever known. The Bucks can still offer him the most possible money, either via extension or a re-signing. It’s up to them to make him want to stay in Milwaukee.

That leaves only a few real questions:

1. Will Antetokounmpo opt in for 2025-26 and add three new years? Or will he opt out and add four new years? Bet on the first option, as he’ll likely make more money, and it gets hm back on the market for one more possibly big contract in 2029 heading into his age-35 and Year 17 season.
2. Will Antetokounmpo take less years than the max he’s able to? He could look to game the system a bit, while also keeping pressure on the Bucks, by extending but adding a year or two fewer than he’s eligible to in an extension. That way he can get back on the market sooner, and potentially cash in even bigger by taking advantage of the year-over-year cap growth.
3. What moves do the Bucks have to make over the next year to show Antetokounmpo they are serious about staying contenders? First is getting something done to keep Jrue Holiday in Milwaukee. After that, it’s probably being aggressive in trading role players and draft picks (when they are able) to upgrade with top-tier talent. That could leave the team thin depth-wise, but that’s not really the superstar’s problem to worry about. That’s for the front office to figure out, if they want to keep Antetokounmpo in the Good Land green and Cream City cream.

Viktor Hovland wins the TOUR Championship and $18 million. Hovland ends the season with $14.1 million from official on-course payouts, $18 million for the TOUR Championship bonus and $1.4 million for the Comcast Business Tour Top 10 bringing his total earnings for the 2023 season to $34.5 million.

TOUR Championship Top 5 Payouts

1. Viktor Hovland: $18,000,000

2. Xander Schauffele: $6,500,000

3. Wyndam Clark: $5,000,000

4. Rory McIlroy: $4,000,000

5. Patrick Cantlay: $3,000,000

Full Results

2023 Earnings Leaders

1. Scottie Scheffler: $21,014,342

2. Jon Rahm: $16,522,609

3. Viktor Hovland: $14,112,236

4. Rory McIlroy: $13,921,008

5. Wyndham Clark: $10,757,490

Full List

2023 Total Earnings Leaders

1. Viktor Hovland: $34,512,236

2. Scottie Scheffler: $26,389,342

3. Jon Rahm: $21,305,109

4. Rory McIlroy: $20,321,008

5. Wyndham Clark: $17,757,490

Full List

https://www.spotrac.com/pga/rankings/earnings/2023/

With the conclusion of the 2023 PGA TOUR season, the following at the final payouts for the 2023 PGA Comcast Business Tour Top 10:

1. Jon Rahm: $4,000,000

2. Scottie Scheffler: $3,000,000

3. Rory McIlroy: $2,400,000

4. Max Homa: $2,200,000

5. Wyndham Clark: $2,000,000

6. Brian Harman: $1,700,000

7. Viktor Hovland: $1,400,000

8. Keegan Bradley: $1,200,000

9. Rickie Fowler: $1,100,000

10. Tony Finau: $1,000,000

Past results: https://www.spotrac.com/pga/comcast-tour-top-10/

James Harden has asked for a trade from the Philadelphia 76ers. Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey has set a high asking-price for his All-Star guard. As of this writing in late-August, no trade has materialized.

The lack of a trade, plus maybe some other stuff, has seen Harden publicly call Morey a “liar”. Harden also said that he’ll “never be a part of an organization that Morey is a part of” again.

How did we get here? Where did it all go south? What are the ramifications of what’s happened? Where do Harden and the 76ers go from here? There are a lot of questions, and we hope we can provide some answers and insight.

The History

Ahead of the 2020-21 season, James Harden asked for a trade from the Houston Rockets. Harden correctly read the tea leaves and saw that Rockets were probably heading towards a reset, if not a full rebuild. He didn’t want to be a part of that and asked for a trade.

Harden initially showed up and played great for Houston. His first three games of that season saw him average 37 points and 11 assists per game. But that fell off quickly and in a major way. He played five more uninspiring games for the Rockets, expending precious little effort while doing so. In mid-January (the NBA was still working on an adjusted calendar due to COVID), he was traded to the Brooklyn Nets.

Harden’s happiness in Brooklyn lasted approximately a year. Whether driven by his desire to reunite with Daryl Morey in Philadelphia, or his own frustrations with injuries, or by the circus the Nets had become, Harden wanted out.

After sitting out a couple of games, Harden played twice more for Brooklyn. Harden’s Nets finale in Sacramento was maybe the most checked-out an NBA player has ever been while playing 37 minutes in a game. Harden barely went through the motions and never played for Brooklyn again before being traded ahead of the 2022 trade deadline.

Harden’s first half-season in Philadelphia went fairly well, even if he was clearly still hampered by a hamstring injury. In the 2022-23 season, Harden returned back to his All-Star form, even if he wasn’t named a 2023 All-Star. But it’s what happened in-between those seasons that seemingly caused this latest fracture between player and club.

In the 2022 offseason, Harden opted out of his $47.4 million player option for the 2022-23 season. As a free agent, Harden agreed to a two-year, $68.6 million deal. That two-year agreement included a player option for the 2023-24 season.

Part of the reason Harden willingly took a pay cut of over $14 million for 2022-23 was that it gave the 76ers the ability to sign P.J. Tucker, Danuel House Jr. and others, while staying under the tax line. In fact, the NBA found that this was lined up far enough in advance that they docked the Sixers two second-round picks for tampering with P.J. Tucker.

As far as Harden went, the assumption was that he’d play out last season for $33 million, opt out again and sign a max deal with Philadelphia in the summer of 2023. Not so fast, my friend.

As early as Christmas Day of 2022, reports came out that Harden wanted to return to the Rockets. Houston was lined up to have maximum cap space, and an unlikely reunion seemed to be on the table. Again, not so fast, my friend.

Harden didn’t opt out and re-sign with the Sixers. He didn’t opt out and sign with the Rockets either. We don’t know for certain, but it seems Harden got two pieces of information between the end of 2022 and free agency opening in July of 2023.

The first piece of info was that Philadelphia wasn’t going to give him a max deal. The second piece of info seems like it was that Houston was going in a different direction with their cap space. 

At that point, Harden again read the tea leaves and realized that to land in a destination of his liking, it would be easier to pull off via trade than free agency. So, Harden opted in and immediately requested a trade. And here we are.

James Harden’s Contract

James Harden is in the final year of the two-year deal he signed with the Philadelphia 76ers in the summer of 2021. His deal is fully guaranteed for $35,640,000. There are no incentives or trade bonuses in Harden’s deal.

Because the 76ers are currently sitting just over the tax apron, the most they could take back in trade is 110% of Harden’s salary in a deal, plus $250,000. For simplicity’s sake, that’s $39,454,000.

It’s also important to note that any team that trades Harden will not be able to extend his contract. Because he signed a two-year deal, Harden is not extension-eligible. If traded, he’ll play out this season and will be an unrestricted free agent in 2024.

The Overall Situation

Now that we understand the history and what James Harden’s contract is, where are we at exactly?

Harden is still a member of the Philadelphia 76ers. The Sixers have publicly said that they expect him to report for training camp in October. Harden has made it known that he has no intention of doing that, and that he still expects a trade.

The NBA hit Harden with a $100,000 fine (the maximum allowable for a single transgression) for “indicating that he would not perform the services called for under his player contract unless traded to another team”. The league could have hit Harden with a $150,000 fine, but that would have been for publicly asking for a trade. This lesser fine seemingly falls under the “conduct or statements prejudicial or detrimental to the best interests of basketball, the NBA, or a team” category, as opposed to the public trade demand one.

The NBPA intends to file a grievance on Harden’s behalf. Their argument is that Harden is being unfairly punished for calling Daryl Morey a “liar”, as opposed to saying he’ll withhold services. This was to be expected, as the NBPA has to protect their player and to make sure that the rest of their constituency isn’t punished for simply making comments the NBA finds objectionable.

As for Harden, he said his calling Morey a liar was related to Morey saying that he’d trade him “quickly” after Harden opted in. He has not referenced any kind of wink-wink agreement in reference to his free agency in 2022.

James Harden’s Situation

James Harden wants a trade and doesn’t want to play for the Philadelphia 76ers any longer. Or, at the very least, he doesn’t want to play for the Sixers while Daryl Morey is still running the front office.

To his credit, Harden has never openly called out where he wants to be traded to. Reporting is that Harden prefers a trade to the LA Clippers. That’s likely accurate, but Harden hasn’t agitated anything towards “Clippers or else!”, at least not publicly.

Beyond that, Harden kind of made his own bed, to at least some degree. He could have let his prior contract play out. He could have opted out of his current contract. Either way, he would have had full control over what was next. As it stands now, Harden can want to be elsewhere, but he’s beholden to the whims of Morey and 29 other teams and what they can negotiate in trade.

As far as Harden saying he won’t report to the Sixers goes, he’s playing a dangerous game. Under the CBA, any player who withholds services for 30 total days while in the final season of his contract, will be deemed to have not completed that contract.

In Harden’s case, if he stays away from the Sixers for at least 30 days, his contract will expire as scheduled on July 1, 2024. But Harden will not be able to sign with any professional basketball team without the permission of the 76ers. (Note: That’s any professional team. FIBA is generally fairly good about upholding contract rules of the various leagues they are partnered with. That makes it unlikely Harden would be approved to sign outside of the NBA.)

That makes the most likely situation, assuming Harden is still with Philadelphia at the start of training camp, also the most uncomfortable one. He’ll have to show up and do the bare minimum. We’ve seen what that looks like, and it benefits no one.

Finally, for those who say “Harden is in a contract year. He has to show up and play well, or no one will want him!” That’s complete nonsense. Teams know who Harden is at this point in his career. They also understand the situation. They’ve seen Harden play uninspiring basketball with both the Rockets and Nets in pre-trade situations. If he does it again, it’s not going to deter a team that wants him from making a trade.

The Philadelphia 76ers' Situation

Daryl Morey laid out some guidelines for making a James Harden trade. Morey said he needs to get a player or players that will keep his team a contender. Or the team needs to get enough draft picks that they can be turned into a player or players that will keep the Sixers a contender.

In addition to the above, Morey is prioritizing the Sixers keeping the cap flexibility that they are looking at for the 2024 offseason. Philadelphia is one of seven teams that project to have cap space in the summer of 2024.

To sum it up: Morey wants good players, or draft picks that he can flip for good players, and he doesn’t want to take on any salary into 2024-25.

Good luck.

Either of those ambitions are fine. The 76ers are a contender and should be trying to stay at that level. It’s also fine to want to have cap space next summer. Money to spend with Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey in place? Every team in the league would sign up for that.

But, it’s not really that simple.

It’s hard to find players at Harden’s level that are also on expiring contracts, especially at this point in the offseason. Moving Harden in a package built around draft picks is also a difficult thing to swing. Again, it’s late-August. Most teams are fleshing out their rosters with training camp invites, not trying to pull off blockbuster trades.

Also, let’s spend a little time talking about preserving cap space for 2024. It’s been massively overstated how much cap space the 76ers can get to.

As it stands today, the NBA projects the salary cap to land at $142 million for the 2024-25 season. That’s a very modest 4.4% increase from this season. Even if the league is being very conservative, let’s run with that $142 million projection for now.

This is what Philadelphia has on the books for the 2024-25 season:

• Joel Embiid - $51,415,938
• Filip Petrusev - $1,891,857 (non-guaranteed)
• Paul Reed - $7,723,000 (non-guaranteed unless team makes second round of 2024 playoffs)
• Jaden Springer - $4,018,363 (4th year rookie scale team option)
• P.J. Tucker - $11,539,000 (player option)
• 2024 First Round Pick (projected at #25): $2,739,360

The 76ers can also have a host of cap holds for free agents, but in order to have cap space, they’ll need to renounce most of those players. These are the two free agent cap holds that Philadelphia is most likely to carry into the 2024 offseason:

• Tyrese Maxey - $13,031,760 (restricted free agent coming off rookie scale deal)
• De’Anthony Melton - $15,200,000 (unrestricted free agent coming off less than average salary)

Our projection for the 76ers cap space for 2024 is $32,961,798. We don’t project trades, so here’s what is included in that projection:

• Embiid
• Reed
• Tucker
• 2024 First Round Pick
• Maxey cap hold
• Melton cap hold

For reference, $32.9 million in cap space is less than the 0-6 Years of Service maximum salary, which projects to be $35.5 million (25% of the cap).

Now, let’s play a bit…

Let’s say Morey can get off everything but Embiid’s salary and Maxey’s cap hold. And, to be honest, that isn’t all that far-fetched of a scenario. That would give the 76ers $65,237,062 in cap space against a cap of $142 million.

For reference, a 7-9 Years of Service maximum salary for 2024-25 projects to be $42.6 million (30% of the cap). A 10-plus Years of Service maximum salary projects to be $49.7 million (35% of the cap).

So, we’re definitely in range of a maximum signing at 25%, 30% or 35% of the cap. And there would even be enough left over to sign another player or two, plus the $8 million room exception. But that’s still well shy of the double max salary space that has been touted in the basketball-sphere in recent weeks.

Let’s play a bit more…

Let’s say the Sixers wipe everything off the books except for Embiid and Maxey AND the cap goes up the maximum of 10%. That’s kind of the dream scenario for Morey and Philadelphia. In that situation, the cap would be $149.6 million for 2024-25.

If that happens, then the Sixers would be looking at about $70-72 million or so in cap space. Better than $65 million, and certainly better than $33 million. But that also involves a lot of “if this and this and this and this” happening to get there.

In an attempt to simplify this a bit: The Philadelphia 76ers have good cap flexibility, but they aren’t landing two max free agents in the summer of 2024. That would take some salary cap gymnastics that are simply too unrealistic to really consider. A single max free agent to add to Embiid and Maxey, as well as some leftover spending power, that’s a far more realistic scenario. And it’s not really a bad one!

Summary

This is a mess. It has been for a while, and will continue to be one, especially as the ugliness seems to be amping up. James Harden seems unlikely to back down, and has reportedly threatened to make things “uncomfortable” if he’s not traded.

Daryl Morey is going to find it hard to achieve all of his stated goals in making a Harden deal. It’s just not realistic to expect to find contention-level players, who are also on expiring contracts.

The NBA itself is in an increasingly tricky spot. If Harden continues to push that he was promised things that haven’t come to fruition, the league is going to have to investigate just how far things went in the summer of 2022. If there is proof that there were wink-wink and under-the-table agreements, the league will hammer Philadelphia with massive penalties.

When the Minnesota Timberwolves and Joe Smith had shady dealings, the NBA came down hard. The Wolves lost five first-round picks (two of them were later returned), were hit with a $3.5 million fine and then owner Glen Taylor was suspended for a year. It’s fair to expect Adam Silver and the league office would hit the 76ers with similar consequences.

To be fair, there’s no indication that’s going to happen. So far, Harden has held firm that his “liar” comments were about Morey not trading him quickly after opting in. But the longer this situation drags on, the uglier it could get.

As with all trade negotiations, the parties involved often set unrealistic terms early on. No one wants to give up everything in the first conservation. As time goes along, one side comes up down from their ask, while the other comes up with their offer, and the deal gets done.

In this situation, we have a pretty clear deadline about a month or so from now, with training camp on the horizon. Harden doesn’t want to be in Philadelphia, and says he won’t be. The 76ers aren’t going to want an awkward media day and opening to the new season. NFL executive-turned-analyst Andrew Brandt is fond of saying “Deadlines spur action” and that applies here.

Morey will come down in his asking price, perhaps because the idea of maximizing cap space is a somewhat futile one. He’ll come away with a collection of good players, along with retaining a good amount of cap flexibility. Harden will land elsewhere (probably with the Clippers, because players generally get their way), and we’ll move on.

If that’s not the way this plays out, it’s going to become an ugly staring contest for no good reason. And that’s going to have spillover to the rest of the roster. The rumor mill is already churning regarding Joel Embiid. If this gets to a point where Embiid is agitated enough to want a change of scenery, it’ll be a failure of epic proportions.

We aren’t there yet, and probably won’t get there. But avoiding that has to be part of the equation. That’s why it behooves Philadelphia to get a deal done and to move onto whatever is next.

As we approach final cuts and Week 1 roster announcements for the 2023 season, we'll take a look at how each offensive weapon position lines up in terms of average starting. We've identified the "expected" starters for each team's QB1, RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, TE1, & TE2 this season, pulling out average salary data for each to assess the positions as a whole.

Related: 2023 NFL Financial Depth Charts

QUARTERBACKS

Average QB1 AAV: $25,379,910
32 Combined QB1 AAVs: $812,157,112

The 32 projected starting QBs for 2023 carry an average salary just north of $25M. They range from Justin Herbert’s $52.5M, down to Brock Purdy’s $934k. 18 QBs (56% of the league) now hold a contract averaging at least $20M per year, with Joe Burrow ready to make it 19. The $812M+ of combined contract averages is more than all 32 #1 running backs plus all 32 #1 wide receivers, plus all 32 #1 tight ends combined - with $5M still to spare.

RUNNING BACKS

Average RB1 AAV: $5,237,958
32 Combined RB1 AAVs: $167,614,659
Average RB2 AAV: $1,980,169
Average RB1+RB2 AAV: $7,218,127

The projected starting RB1s for 2023 carry average salaries that range from Khalil Herbert’s $902k, up to Christian McCaffrey’s $16M. 19 RB1s (60%) carry an average salary less than $5M right now, while only 8 (25%) carry one north of $10M. The average salary for an RB2 has dipped under $2M this year, with teams spreading out their allocations more than ever. On average, teams are spending around $7.2M for their top two running backs.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Average WR1 AAV: $12,656,879
32 Combined WR1 AAVs: $405,020,130
Average WR2 AAV: $6,748,827
Average WR1+WR2 AAV: $19,405,706

Things have really taken off for this position, especially following a wild 2022 offseason spending spree. The average WR1 ($12.6M) will take in more than double what the average RB1 ($5.2M) will this season, while even the WR2 middle point ($6.7M) stands healthily above the RB mark. 16 WR1s (50%) carry an average salary of $10M or more, while only 1 (Isaiah Hodgins, NYG, $870k) lives under the $1M mark. The average cost for a team’s top 4 receivers chimes in around $25.5M, with the Raiders ($56.6M) heavily leading the league, while Indy ($5.9M) easily brings up the rear.

TIGHT ENDS

Average TE1 AAV: $7,318,656
32 Combined TE1 AAVs: $234,196,988
Average TE2 AAV: $2,981,396
Average TE1+TE2 AAV: $10,300,052

11 TE1s carry an average salary north of $10M this year, led by Darren Waller’s restructured deal in NY. 7 projected starting tight ends are operating on a contract averaging less than $2M, as a quiet devaluation of the position continues to roll in. The average cost for two tight ends on a team ($10.3M) is millions less than the average cost for a WR1 ($12.6M) right now.

The NBA offseason is fully into the dog days of August. We’re still waiting to see when (if?) Damian Lillard or James Harden gets traded. One situation has been curiously quiet, while the other has been contentiously loud. But both Lillard and Harden remain in Portland and Philadelphia, respectively.

But everyone else is filling out training camp rosters at this point. That means it’s time to reset where each roster stands. We’re going to look at who is returning, who was acquired and who has departed. We’ll also answer a few key questions about each team.

We covered the Atlantic Division, Central Division, Pacific Division and Southwest Division already. Next up: The Southeast Division!

Atlanta Hawks

Players Returning (11)

Saddiq Bey, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela, Bruno Fernando, A.J. Griffin Jr., De’Andre Hunter, Jalen Johnson, Garrison Mathews, Dejounte Murray, Onyeka Okongwu, Trae Young

Players Added (6)

Kobe Bufkin, Mouhamed Gueye, Seth Lundy (two-way), Wesley Matthews, Patty Mills, Miles Norris (two-way)

Players Lost (5)

John Collins, Trent Forrest (two-way), Aaron Holiday, Tyrese Martin, Donovan Williams (two-way)

Roster Openings

1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

Atlanta is $9.7 million under the luxury tax line.

Spending Power Remaining

The Hawks have the full $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE left, plus the $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception. Atlanta also has the NBA’s largest TPE at $23 million from the John Collins trade.

Biggest Move of the Summer

We’re going to give this one a tie. One move involved a player moving on and one move involved retaining a player.

Atlanta finally traded John Collins, following years of speculation that they would do so. In the end, Collins was salary-dumped to Utah Jazz. Atlanta created necessary room under the tax line, and also freed up some frontcourt playing time. No one who can replace Collins is nearly as accomplished as he is, but they are all significantly cheaper. And for an expensive team that’s achieved average results, something had to give for the Hawks.

On the retention side, Atlanta agreed to a four-year, $114 million extension with Dejounte Murray. That’s far less than the max Murray was eligible for, but a good example of the new extension rules in the CBA getting a deal done. For better or worse, Atlanta is now committed to a backcourt of Murray and Trae Young, and Quin Snyder has to find a way to make it work.

Work To Do

The Hawks roster is basically finished. They have a two-way spot to fill. Atlanta waived Vit Krejci recently, which got them down to 15 players on standard spots.

With the roster complete, Quin Snyder can spend camp implementing his systems, while figuring out his rotation. Collins and his 30 minutes per game need to be replaced. The guess here is that some combination of Saddiq Bey, Jalen Johnson and maybe some small-ball lineups will be the way the Hawks do it. Keep an eye on Johnson. He started to come on late in his second season and seems ready to make a leap this year.

Charlotte Hornets

Players Returning (11)

LaMelo Ball, James Bouknight, Gordon Hayward, Kai Jones, Cody Martin, Bryce McGowens, Nick Richards, Terry Rozier III, Kobi Simmons, J.T. Thor, Mark Williams

Players Added (6)

Amari Bailey (two-way), Leaky Black (two-way), Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller, Frank Ntilikina, Nick Smith Jr.

Players Lost (6)

Theo Maledon (two-way), Svi Mykhailiuk, Kelly Oubre Jr., Xavier Sneed (two-way), P.J. Washington

Roster Openings

1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

Charlotte is about $46.7 million under the luxury tax

Spending Power Remaining

The Hornets have the full $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE left, plus the $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Signing LaMelo Ball to a five-year, maximum contract rookie scale extension. Ball is Charlotte’s most important player and they got him to sign a five-year extension to stick around long-term. That’s huge for building out this roster and what the Hornets hope to be.

Behind extending Ball is drafting Brandon Miller. Charlotte chose Miller instead of Scoot Henderson, who most thought was the second-best player in the draft. But Miller is a better positional fit for the Hornets, and he’s got a ton of talent himself. If Miller can develop into a running mate for Ball, Charlotte will have two important positions covered for years.

Miles Bridges will be back this season, after he signed his qualifying offer. When he last played in 2021-22, Bridges looked like he was on the verge of being an All-Star. An ugly domestic violence incident kept Bridges out all of last season, and he’ll serve a 10-game suspension to open next season. (Bridges was given a 30-game total suspension, but deemed to have served 20 games when he did not play last season.) Bridges has an opportunity to show he’s an improving and better person, to go along with his basketball talent. But he has a lot of work to do to prove himself again.

Off the court, Michael Jordan sold the Hornets to a group led by Gabe Plotkin and Rick Schnall. This ends Jordan’s up-and-mostly-down reign running the Charlotte franchise. It’ll take some time before we can judge what sort of owners Plotkin and Schnall will be.

Work To Do

Charlotte only has a two-way spot left to fill, but they aren’t done with their roster yet. P.J. Washington remains a restricted free agent. Washington reportedly wants a contract that averages $20 million per season. That’s pretty far away from where the Hornets have been.

That means we’re in range of Washington signing the qualifying offer, a la Miles Bridges, and playing out the year before unrestricted free agency in 2024. The other option is to find a sign-and-trade for Washington. That’s occasionally happened late in the offseason, with Lauri Markkanen joining the Cleveland Cavaliers from the Chicago Bulls as a recent example.

If Washington is back, that makes a somewhat crowded frontcourt even more so, especially after Bridges returns. Washington, Bridges, Gordon Hayward and rookie Brandon Miller will all need plenty of minutes and one or two of them will have to go to the bench. That’s a potentially combustible situation, with Bridges, Hayward and Washington playing for their next deals and Miller needing run as a rookie.

Miami Heat

Players Returning (11)

Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Jamal Cain (two-way), Tyler Herro, Haywood Highsmith, Nikola Jovic, Kevin Love, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, Orlando Robinson

Players Added (5)

Jamaree Bouyea (two-way), Thomas Bryant, Jaime, Jaquez Jr., Josh Richardson, Dru Smith (two-way)

Players Lost (6)

Udonis Haslem, Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Omer Yurtseven, Cody Zeller

Roster Openings

2 standard spots.

Cap/Tax Status

Miami is $1.8 million below the second tax apron.

Spending Power Remaining

The Heat have the full $5 million Taxpayer MLE remaining. However, Miami doesn’t have enough clearance under the second apron to use more than $1.8 million of it. And using the Taxpayer MLE would hard cap the Heat at the second apron. That makes the Taxpayer MLE unlikely to be used for the time being.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Signing Josh Richardson…we guess? We all know the story here. Miami is trying to figure out a way to collect the necessary assets to trade for Damian Lillard. That pursuit has more or less put the rest of the Heat’s offseason on pause. Until Miami trades for Lillard, or moves on from trading for him, their offseason has an air of incompleteness around it.

That said, signing Richardson at the veteran minimum was a great pickup. He’ll play a big role for Miami and returns to the team where he had the best years of his career. His ability to play on- or off-ball, and as a starter or a reserve, is also helpful for a roster that is still being molded.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. just feels like a Heat player. He could add some nice depth as a rangy forward who can do a little bit of everything.

Thomas Bryant is a nice rehab project for Miami. He was pretty good for the Washington Wizards a few years back before tearing his ACL. The Heat have a history of getting players right, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Bryant have a bounce-back season.

Work To Do

The Heat need to trade for Lillard or not. There really isn’t a whole lot else to do. If they don’t trade for Lillard, they’ll wage a five-way battle for roster spots in training camp. And it’s a pretty good bet that one of those players will eventually play key rotation minutes for Miami.

But really, this is all about a Lillard trade. Nothing else here can approach the impact of getting that deal done.

Orlando Magic

Players Returning (14)

Cole Anthony, Paolo Banchero, Goga Bitadze, Wendell Carter Jr., Makelle Fultz, Gary Harris, Kevon Harris (two-way), Caleb Houstan, Jonathan Isaac, Chuma Okeke, Admiral Schofield (two-way), Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Moritz Wagner

Players Added (3)

Anthony Black, Jett Howard, Joe Ingles

Players Lost (3)

Bol Bol, Michael Carter-Williams, Jay Scrubb (two-way)

Roster Openings

1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

The Magic are $34.3 million under the luxury tax line.

Spending Power Remaining

Orlando has the full $7.7 million room exception remaining.

Biggest Move of the Summer

For this season: signing Joe Ingles. For the long-term: drafting Anthony Black and Jett Howard.

Orlando is trying to push up the standing. After last season’s disastrous 5-20 start, Orlando went 29-28. The Magic believe they are closer to that .500 team of the final two-thirds of the season, than the injury-plagued group that opened the year.

We’re inclined to believe them. That’s why signing Ingles makes sense. He’ll be the grownup in a young locker room, while providing some shooting and a lot of ball movement on the floor. Ingles is more 3/4 now, than the 2/3 he used to be, but that’s fine. He’ll play about 20 minutes a night and help this fledgling group mature.

Black and Howard were this year’s first-round picks. Black is ready to defend in the NBA right now, but the rest of his game needs work. He has to improve his shot and his playmaking, but he oozes potential. Howard is closer to ready to contribute as an NBA shooter, but the rest of his game is where he needs to improve. Because Orlando’s roster is pretty loaded with young talent, neither Black nor Howard might make much of an impact this season.

Work To Do

Jamahl Mosley can have some fun in training camp this year, assuming his guys stay healthy. The Magic are deep in guys who can play. Just as importantly: Orlando is deep in guys who need to play. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner will come into camp off a summer of national team experience, along with a few others. But it’s those two burgeoning stars who are ready to take another big step forward.

This season is about figuring out who fits around Banchero and Wagner, while also winning more games. The Magic have a lot of the rotation to figure out, especially in the backcourt, but that’s better than the “no healthy perimeter players” situation that Mosley started last season with. This time, things are starting from a far better place.

Washington Wizards

Players Returning (8)

Deni Avdija, Xavier Cooks, Johnny Davis, Daniel Gafford, Anthony Gill, Corey Kispert, Kyle Kuzma, Delon Wright

Players Added (10)

Jared Butler (two-way), Patrick Baldwin Jr., Bilal Coulibaly, Danilo Gallinari, Tyus Jones, Mike Muscala, Eugene Omoruyi (two-way), Jordan Poole, Ryan Rollins, Landry Shamet

Players Lost (9)

Bradley Beal, Taj Gibson, Jordan Goodwin, Jay Huff (two-way), Quenton Jackson (two-way), Monte Morris, Kendrick Nunn, Kristaps Porzingis, Isaiah Todd

Roster Openings

1 two-way spot.

Cap/Tax Status

The Wizards are $26.9 million under the luxury tax.

Spending Power Remaining

Washington has the full $12.4 million Non-Taxpayer MLE left, plus the $4.5 million Bi-Annual Exception.

Biggest Move of the Summer

Leaning fully into a rebuild. Washington traded away Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis, and shed a lot of the long-term salary they had on their cap sheet. They also picked up several draft picks in the Beal trade, in addition to the new cap flexibility. These moves truly mark a new direction for the Wizards.

Washington committed some of that newfound cap flexibility to Jordan Poole, who they acquired by flipping Chris Paul after the Beal trade, and by re-signing Kyle Kuzma. The two veterans will give the Wizards scoring and shooting, as the roster develops over the next few years.

Tyus Jones was a very solid pickup in the Porzingis trade. He’s long been thought of as someone who could handle a starting role. It looks like we’ll find out, as Jones is the best Washington has at the point guard position.

Everyone else the Wizards acquired this summer is a mix of flyers on young players and veterans that were included for salary reasons. Washington will have opportunities for players to emerge or for vets to get their careers back on track.

Work To Do

The Wizards have to cut or trade a player with a guaranteed standard salary to get into roster compliance. They also have a two-way spot to fill.

Beyond that, Washington could extend Deni Avdija, as he’s eligible for a rookie scale extension. Given the in-progress nature of the Wizards roster, that one might play out to restricted free agency next summer. For now, only Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole and rookie Bilal Coulibaly seem to have guaranteed long-term futures with the Wizards. Everyone else is playing for a spot for this season and beyond, both in Washington and, for some, in the NBA as a whole.

Viktor Hovland wins the BMW Championship and $3.6 million. His on-course earnings for the 2023 season are now at $14.1 million and his career total is $26.69 million.

BMW Championship Top 5 Payouts

1. Viktor Hovland: $3,600,000

T2. Matt Fitzpatrick, Scottie Scheffler: $1,760,000

4. Rory McIlroy: $990,000

T5. Brian Harman, Max Homa: $790,000

Full Results

2023 Earnings Leaders Update

1. Scottie Scheffler: $21,014,342

2. Jon Rahm: $16,522,609

3. Viktor Hovland: $14,112,236

4. Rory McIlroy: $13,921,008

5. Wyndham Clark: $10,757,490

Full List

The 2023 NBA offseason is mostly behind us. Why only mostly? Well, Damian Lillard and James Harden still call Portland and Philadelphia home, respectively. Until those guys are traded (more likely) or show up for training camp (less likely), the offseason won’t really be wrapped up.

But outside of those two stars, rosters are more or less set to open the 2023-24 season. And that means we can start looking ahead by nearly a year to what the landscape looks like for the 2024 NBA offseason.

The NBA CBA negotiations wrapped up without any sort of major hitches. No work stoppages and everything is moving forward as per usual. The salary cap settled at just over $136 million for the 2023-24 season. That was a 10% increase over last year’s cap of about $123.6 million. The luxury tax landed at $165.6 million, with the tax apron coming in at $172.3 million. The new second tax apron (it really is a shame that “super tax” hasn’t caught on more!) is set at $182.8 million.

For the 2024-25 season, the NBA is being very conservative. Initial projections are that we’ll see just a 4.4% increase. That means a cap of $142 million, a tax line of $172.5 million, first apron of $179.9 million and second apron of $190.8 million. The reason for this conservative projection is likely driven by the uncertainty with several Regional Sports Networks (RSNs). Diamond Sports Group, the parent company of Bally Sports, currently broadcasts games for about half of the NBA teams. They are going through bankruptcy proceedings, and that’s caused issues for those teams, and the league as a whole. Thus, the conservative cap projection.

We’re basing everything on the NBA’s official projection. Yes, there is a good chance the cap raises by more than a modest 4.4%. It might even go up the full 10%, which many smart capologists are betting on. But for now, for consistency purposes, we run with the league’s official projection.

With all of that said, here’s our first pass at what the spending power landscape might look like in the summer of 2024.

(Note: These projections are made using the noted cap and tax figures above, draft pick cap holds based on projected standings and a projection on all option and guarantee decisions by players and teams. No extensions or trades have been projected. We will call out where those types of situations could impact a team projection.)

Cap Space Teams – 7 Teams

1. San Antonio Spurs: $55.3 million

2. Orlando Magic: $51.3 million

3. Utah Jazz: $41.6 million

4. Charlotte Hornets: $40.7 million

5. Detroit Pistons: $38.7 million

6. Philadelphia 76ers: $32.9 million

7. Washington Wizards: $20.1 million

Seven teams project to have cap space in 2024. Not only will these teams likely go the cap space route, but they’ll also have the $8.1 million Room Exception too. In the new CBA world, the Room Exception has more spending power than the Taxpayer MLE does. So, these seven teams are kind of in control of the free agent board.

The Spurs are highly likely to use some of their $55 million in an extension for Devin Vassell. But even a deal of $20 million or more would leave San Antonio with considerable cap space. There’s also a world where the Spurs choose to keep Vassell’s moderate cap hold of $17.7 million on the books to maximize their cap space, while re-signing Vassell after.

This projection for the Magic is largely dependent on Orlando moving on from Jonathan Isaac. Given that his deal is fully non-guaranteed for 2024-25, and he still can’t stay healthy, it’s probably time for the Magic to go in a different direction. Orlando may use a chunk of this space to re-sign Markelle Fultz and/or Cole Anthony. They could also extend Fultz and/or Anthony before it gets to that point. Either way, the Magic should have the ability to add some major talent to a developing young roster.

Utah is sitting pretty. They’ve got all of their core players under contract, with a ton potential cap space. Some of this spending power could be used to renegotiate-and-extend Lauri Markkanen’s deal. That’s en vogue at the moment, with Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis, as well as Jazzman Jordan Clarkson, having inked such deals in the last year. If Utah chooses to let things play out with Markkanen, they could be a major player in free agency, as they’ve got a ready-to-win roster.

The Hornets are a tricky projection. As of this writing, P.J. Washington hasn’t re-signed. If he signs a long-term deal, that will eat into some of this $40 million in spending power. If Washington signs his qualifying offer for this season, a la teammate Miles Bridges, he’ll be headed towards unrestricted free agency and a potential departure next summer. We’re betting on the latter for now and the Hornets having cap space to build around an extended LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller.

Detroit feels like they are perpetually in this spot of sitting on a bunch of cap space with an interesting roster of vets and young players. This season will give us a big sense of the Pistons plans. If they’re competitive, they might use some of this space to add more veteran talent. If they struggle again, then it’s probably time to move on from some of the older players and reset once again around the kids.

The 76ers are a bit of a mess. The James Harden drama lingers over the team, but Philadelphia has given us some clues as to their plans for next summer, independent of the Harden situation. By not extending Tyrese Maxey, who is the organization’s second-most important player behind Joel Embiid, the Sixers are signaling they intend to have cap space next summer. It won’t be the “double max contract” cap room that’s been bandied about, but Philadelphia will have enough to make some moves as they rebuild around Embiid and an ultimately re-signed restricted free agent Maxey.

Washington cleaned up their cap sheet considerably, despite taking on Jordan Poole’s contract and re-signing Kyle Kuzma. But both of those guys make less than Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis by a considerable amount, so the Wizards are in a better spot both short- and long-term. They could easily stay over the cap, as $20 million is right in range where that becomes and either/or decision. If the Wizards retain Tyus Jones, they’ll end up staying over the cap. If not, then they’ll be hunting for a point guard to put next to Kuzma and Poole.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams – 10 Teams

1. Brooklyn Nets

2. Chicago Bulls

3. Houston Rockets

4. Indiana Pacers

5. Miami Heat

6. New Orleans Pelicans

7. New York Knicks

8. Oklahoma City Thunder

9. Sacramento Kings

10. Toronto Raptors

These 10 teams project to have access to the beefed-up Non-Taxpayer MLE of $12.95 million. This group is mostly full of playoff contenders, or teams trying to get into that position.

The Nets have rebuilt on the fly in an impressive manner. Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson are signed for the next three and four seasons, respectively. The draft pick situation has been reset with the trades of their former Big 3. Of the team’s free agents, Nic Claxton is the most important one to get re-signed. Brooklyn can do that and still have plenty of clearance under the tax line to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Chicago didn’t make a lot of their fans happy by extending Nikola Vucevic and re-signing Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu. This wasn’t a group that was screaming “Run it back!”. But the Bulls have a solid group, even if there are question marks. Pending what happens with re-signing or extending DeMar DeRozan and/or Patrick Williams, Chicago could have enough room to use the Non-Taxpayer MLE. That’s not bad, considering the team is still working around Lonzo Ball’s salary on the books, while he tries to come back from his knee injury.

Houston spent big this summer, and that probably took them out of the cap space derby for next summer. That’s fine. The Rockets are trying to push things forward. The roster remains pretty full, so Houston should be able to spend the full MLE on a targeted signing.

The Pacers are kind of in the same spot as the Rockets, but about a year ahead on the rebuilding timeline. Indiana is ready to win now. Their young guys are ready now, and they’ve got vets in place. Indiana’s cap sheet is also relatively clean. They’ve got a few pending free agents, but even if they re-sign or extend guys like Buddy Hield and Obi Toppin, the Pacers will likely have the ability to use the full MLE.

Miami…what to do with Miami? Projecting where the Heat will be next summer is kind of an exercise in futility. If they trade for Damian Lillard, they’ll likely be a tax team, and potentially up against the super tax. If they don’t, the Heat could have the Non-Taxpayer MLE to add someone alongside all the names you already know. We’ll definitely be updating this one down the line, as this situation remains very much in flux.

The Pelicans are dancing around the tax line this season, but could have enough clearance to use the full MLE next summer. A lot depends on what happens with Jonas Valanciunas. He wants an extension, but New Orleans seems at least as open to trading him, as they do extending him. If the latter happens, the Pels could have some money to spend in the form of the MLE.

The Knicks are probably going to spend a good chunk of change to extend Immanuel Quickley. Or they should, at least. Even so, they should still have room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. The only way this projection changes is if Evan Fournier is traded to bring long-term money onto the books. Then, the Knicks will probably be a Taxpayer MLE team.

It might be a surprise to see the Thunder here, as opposed to in the cap space section, but they’re carrying more money than most think. The good news? None of that is bad salary. A few years of high and multiple draft picks, along with a few smart re-signings, have the team just over the cap. Also working for Oklahoma City is that they can use the full MLE on a targeted player, because they have a mostly full roster too.

Sacramento is coming off their best season in forever, and they’ve got the ability to keep the good times rolling. The Kings should be about $20 million clear of the luxury tax line next summer. They’ll use some of the clearance to re-sign Malik Monk, but Sacramento should still have enough room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. For a team that doesn’t need a lot, that’s a great spot to be in.

The Raptors are in a weird spot. Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. will likely be free agents, along with probably Precious Achiuwa. If those guys all came off the books entirely, Toronto could have a ton of cap space. If one of two them return, the Raps are over the cap. If all returned, they’re probably up against the tax. It’ll probably fall in the middle, and that leaves Toronto with the MLE to spend.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams – 7 Teams

1. Atlanta Hawks

2. Cleveland Cavaliers

3. Dallas Mavericks

4. Denver Nuggets

5. Los Angeles Lakers

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

7. Portland Trail Blazers

The Taxpayer MLE is no longer much of an advantage for the NBA’s more-expensive teams. It’s been knocked down to just $5.22 million in value for 2024-25. The real kicker is that using the Taxpayer MLE hard caps a team at the second tax apron. That makes it hard to find the right amount of wiggle room to use this MLE, while staying under that hard cap.

Atlanta reset their cap sheet by salary-dumping John Collins. Pending extensions for Onyeka Okongwu and Saddiq Bey, the Hawks could be right back to bumping against the luxury tax line. Extending Okongwu seems important, given the trade of Collins and Clint Capela having just two years left on his deal. There’s also the fact that Okongwu is pushing Capela for the Hawks best big man status. Add it all up, and Atlanta is probably working right around the tax apron next season.

The Cavs spent a good chunk of money this offseason. Combine that with Darius Garland’s extension and Donovan Mitchell’s and Jarrett Allen’s deals, and Cleveland is as expensive as they’ve been since LeBron James was on the team. If Ricky Rubio retires, the Cavaliers could probably angle themselves in a spot to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. But for now, put them in Taxpayer MLE territory.

The Mavericks are just below the tax line, but that’s before extending or re-signing Josh Green. He’s an integral part of the team’s rotation (and a likely starter this season), so Green will be extended or re-signed. That’ll leave Dallas working with either the Taxpayer MLE, or maybe dancing just below the second apron line.

Denver is sitting about $6.3 million under the second apron. That should give them juuuuuuust enough room to use the Taxpayer MLE and to sign a player to a minimum deal. That’s good news, because Denver should only have one or two roster spots to fill. If they can shed a salary or two, they’ll have even more wiggle room under the super tax.

The Lakers have rebuilt their roster, but still left themselves some room to work. And if some guys move on, then Los Angeles will have even more room to work with. They’ll probably have several roster spots to fill, so using their MLE in a productive way is very important to the Lakers. Things will probably look similar to this summer, with lots of movement through re-signings, using the MLE and minimum deals.

Minnesota is going to be up against the tax to open next summer. They’ve got most of their core guys signed, but if Jaden McDaniels extends, they’ll be well over the tax. If not, they have to carve out room to re-sign McDaniels next summer. He’s their best all-around defender and a better-than-you-think offensive player. Pending what he signs for, the Wolves could even be approaching super tax status.

Portland is in a similar place to Miami and Philadelphia. We don’t really know where to put them. For now, with Damian Lillard’s $48.8 million on the books, the Blazers are close to being a super tax team. If they move on from Lillard, they’ll still probably take back at least some long-term money. We’re going to split the difference and call them a Taxpayer team for now, owning that this could change greatly.

Super Tax Teams (no signing exception) – 6 Teams

1. Boston Celtics

2. Golden State Warriors

3. LA Clippers

4. Memphis Grizzlies

5. Milwaukee Bucks

6. Phoenix Suns

This is the same group as this current season, minus swapping out the Heat for the Grizzlies, and there’s a good chance Miami lands back here again too. This group also comprises some of the top contenders in the NBA. If you’re going to spend this much, you better be in the mix for the Finals.

Reminder: Super Tax teams are limited to re-signing their own free agents, signing their draft picks and signing minimum deals. And in the summer of 2024, the new and far-more restrictive trade rules will be in full effect, as well.

Boston is set to be over the second apron by virtue of signing Jaylen Brown to his super max extension. The Celtics also extended Kristaps Porzingis. They’ll likely have a few roster spots to fill, and that’ll happen through the draft or veteran minimum signings. With extensions looming for Jayson Tatum and Derrick White, Boston will probably be in this spot for the next few years.

Golden State could get out of the super tax mix. Could. Not likely to happen though. That would mean the Warriors re-signed Klay Thompson to a deal worth a fraction of what he makes now, or they let him walk entirely. If Thompson looks good and the Dubs contend, they’ll run it back for at least a couple more years of the super tax.

The Clippers are fascinating. They could be the most expensive roster in the league if they extend or re-sign all their major free agents (including maybe James Harden?). Or LA could be resetting their roster with around $100 million in cap space. Bet on the former, as the Clips are going to try to keep this group together to get them to that elusive Finals berth. With a new arena opening, LA isn’t going to want to be rebuilding.

It might surprise some to see Memphis here. The Grizzlies have been thought of as an up-and-coming team with great flexibility. Well, they’re here now. Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. will all be on their extended deals, and the team traded for Luke Kennard and Marcus Smart in the last year. All that salary has Memphis just below the second apron and without any kind of signing exceptions projected for next season. That’s no big deal for the Grizzlies, because their roster is basically full as is.

Milwaukee’s projection mostly involves an idea that the team will extend or re-sign Jrue Holiday. If Holiday approaches a deal in the range of $35 to $40 million in first-year salary, then the Bucks will probably be right around the super tax. If Holiday takes a discount, Milwaukee could be far enough under the second apron to use the Taxpayer MLE.

Phoenix has over $185 million committed to the foursome of Deandre Ayton, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. That’s less than $6 million under the second apron with 11 roster spots to fill. Much like this past summer, when the Suns nailed their minimum signings, they’ll be in the same boat for at least the next couple of years. They’ll need to do similarly good work to flesh out their roster around their big-money quartet.

As the MLB regular season takes a turn for the final stretch, we'll take a moment to analyze where the 10 Largest Free Agent Contracts from this past Winter/Spring land in terms of value and production. Spoiler: Things haven't gone particularly well.

Aaron Judge (OF, Yankees)

9 years, $360,000,000

The Yankees signed Judge through the 2031 season, fully guaranteed, and if not for a freakish toe injury that derailed the middle of his 2023 campaign, would have already paid back huge dividends on it. Judge still carries an OPS north of 1, and a WAR north of 3 in just 64 games to date, and the power numbers are as impressive as ever to go along with it. He remains a cornerstone player for the Yankees to (re)build around going forward.

Postseason Status: Unlikely (6.2% according to FanGraphs)

Trea Turner (SS, Phillies)

11 years, $300,000,000

Even a late season heat up won’t salvage a down year for Turner, who is trending toward career lows in many areas of production for 2023. Philly will be seeking the 4.9 WAR player Turner was in 2022 for the next 10 seasons ($272M)

Postseason Status: Likely (83.8% according to FanGraphs)

Xander Bogaerts (SS, Padres)

11 years, $280,000,000

Bogaerts’ move to San Diego was a bit of a surprise, and he hasn’t exactly rewarded them for their spending spree. His line drive and batted ball percentages are at career lows as it’s clear his approach has been to look more opposite field in a lineup that can do everything (when it’s right). This simply might be a case of ‘new team, new scenario”, that improves mightily in Year 2. With $250M remaining over 10 years, San Diego is certainly banking on that.

Postseason Status: Unlikely (22% according to FanGraphs)

Carlos Correa (SS, Twins)

6 years, $200,000,000

Correa opted out of his contract following a .291/.366/.467/.834 2022 where he compiled a 5.5 WAR for his efforts. Let’s just say 2023 has been a different story. The 28-year-old currently carries a career low .231 batting average and a career low .306 on base percentage - despite fairly consistent power numbers based on his past few seasons (30 2B, 20+ HR pace currently). The Twins are succeeding despite his lack of overall consistency, and it might something they have to live with based on what we know about Correa medically speaking. Contractually we’re talking about at least $164M over the next 5 seasons, with 4 vesting options based on availability and production thereafter.

Postseason Status: Likely (90.8% according to FanGraphs)

Jacob deGrom (SP, Rangers)

5 years, $185,000,000

Unfortunately for everyone involved here, deGrom’s injury concerns became a reality after just 6 starts in Texas. He underwent successful Tommy John surgery on June 18th, and his timetable to return is currently unknown - especially based on his past issues. There’s another $155M remaining on this contract through 2027.

Postseason Status: Likely (91.5% according to FanGraphs)

Dansby Swanson (SS, Cubs)

7 years, $177,000,000

The batting average has dipped a little bit, but everything else about Swanson’s first season in Chicago screams “expected”, if not slightly more than. He appears to have filled the exact hole he was brought in to fill: veteran player at a position of importance beginning the process of turning a young team into a contender. The Cubs have shown flashes of that this season, and have a chance to sneak into October baseball still.

Postseason Status: Possibly (54% according to FanGraphs)

Carlos Rodon (SP, Yankees)

6 years, $162,000,000

When this contract was announced, the collective response was that the number seemed “low” for one of the better starting pitcher options on the open market. Many pointed to injury history as one of the factors seemingly built into this deal, and boy did that pan out quickly. Rodon missed 100 days due to an arm injury, and finds himself back on the IL with a hamstring pull currently. Rodon was able to put together really strong back-to-back campaigns in 2021 & 2022, so the Yankees are certainly banking on a return to form for the remaining 5 years, $135M.

Postseason Status: Unlikely (6.2% according to FanGraphs)

Brandon Nimmo (OF, Mets)

8 years, $162,000,000

Despite the “house is burning down” screams surrounding the Mets’ organization as a whole, Nimmo is actually producing at typical Nimmo production for the 2023 campaign. This is simply going to be a case of a good player being overpaid. The Mets are currently on the hook for another $141.75M through 2030.

Postseason Status: Unlikely (0.8% according to FanGraphs)

Edwin Diaz (RP, Mets)

5 years, $102,000,000

Diaz tore a tendon in his right knee at the World Baseball Classic, prior to the start of the 2023 season. It was a sign of things to come for the Mets, who are nearing elimination from the postseason, despite an historic payroll. Diaz is guaranteed another $78.25MM through 2027, though he holds a player opt-out after 2025 (unlikely).

Postseason Status: Unlikely (0.8% according to FanGraphs)

Willson Contreras (C, Cardinals)

5 years, $87,500,000

A lot of the Cardinals’ 2023 season has been uncomfortable to watch, but maybe nothing more so than the phase where newly signed Contreras - heir to the great Yadier Molina - was publicly dismissed from his catching duties for a variety of reasons (none good). He’s caught 70 games to date, and his fielding numbers resemble the majority of his career numbers for the most part, so it appears for now that we’re onward and upward, but don’t be surprised if we hear St. Louis shopping the 31-year-old this winter. Contractually, Contreras carries $72.5M over the next 4 seasons. The Cardinals will most certainly be eating a large portion of this to trade him.

Postseason Status: Unlikely (0.4% according to FanGraphs)

Lucas Glover wins the FedEx St. Jude Championship and $3.6 million. His on-course earnings for the 2023 season are now at $6.13 million and his career total is $34.1 million.

Wyndham Championship Top 5 Payouts

P1. Lucas Glover: $3,600,000

P2. Patrick Cantlay: $2,160,000

T3. Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy: $1,160,000

5. Taylor Moore: $800,000

Full Results

2023 Earnings Leaders Update

1. Scottie Scheffler: $19,254,342

2. Jon Rahm: $16,383,609

3. Rory McIlroy: $12,931,008

4. Viktor Hovland: $10,512,236

5. Wyndham Clark: $10,425,490

Full List