Philly Did Work

Daryl Morey’s first few weeks on the job didn’t involve moving on from Simmons or Embiid. but he did prioritize two things: shedding cap/cash, & adding shooters. Mission Accomplished on draft night, as Philly sends Al Horford & his $81M remaining to OKC, Josh Richardson & his $21M remaining to DAL, while bringing in Seth Curry, Danny Green, & Terrance Ferguson. In total, the Sixers sent out $38.3M of 2020 cap, bringing back $27M, a net of $11M saved. They also sent out $102M of remaining cash, taking on $43.8M, a net of $58M saved.

Detroit's Rebuild

The Pistons were involved in three moves on draft night, including a 3-team move that scored them Rodney McGruder from the Clippers & the #19 overall pick, where they selected SF Saddiq Bey. Additionally, Detroit acquired Trevor Ariza from the Rockets, plus the #16 overall selection, where they picked PF Isaiah Stewart. Just $1.8M of Trevor Ariza's $12.8M salary is currently guaranteed, making him a release candidate. While C Tony Bradley whom the Pistons acquired from Utah is in the final year of his rookie contract. In full - Detroit acquired a new SG, SF, & C, while drafting a PG, PF, & SF. It's a complete overhaul for the Pistons.

The Wounded Warriors

After a 2019 campaign from hell, Golden State's 2020 season is off to a brutal start with the newsof Klay Thompson's injury. On a more positive note, the Warriors took a dymanic big man in James Wiseman and have both a $17M trade exception, & a potential trade asset in Andrew Wiggins to help fill an immediate hole if necessary. Expect GSW to be aggressive if Thompson's diagnosis is as bad as projected (Bradley Beal out of WAS comes to mind).

Boston's Inactivity

The Celtics came into the draft with a very good roster, & three first round picks - generally a recipe for a bigtime move. Instead, they went fairly chalk, selecting a sharp shooter Aaron Nesmith at #14, a versatile ball-handler in Payton Pritchard at #26, then trading out of pick #30 to Memphis for two future 2nd round picks. While not sexy, Boston probably made the right business moves here, addressing their short term with Nesmith, and thinking more long-term the rest of the night. Oh and by the way, the Gordon Heyward option decision could still provide us with plenty of fireworks.

Atlanta's "Big" Night

The Hawks' were rumored to go both up and down in the first round. Instead, they stayed pat and selected a big man to go with their three other big men already rostered. It's a questionable move, and could mean additional trades are forthcoming, with Clint Capela the most likely player to go (despite Atlanta giving up a first round pick to acquire him last year).

Relevant Links

• 2020 NBA Draft Tracker
• NBA Trade Tracker
• NBA Team Cap/Tax Tracker

Eduardo Escobar, 3B, ARZ

Potential Suitors: ATL, WAS, TOR

The Diamondbacks are in a weird spot, having spent in free agency last offseason, then selling off key parts at the deadline amidst a dreadful 2020 season. If the plan is to continue cutting dollars, Escobar’s $7.5M salary would likely be next on the list. He’s a great fit for teams that don’t want to part ways with assets to acquire Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, etc…

Kris Bryant, 3B, CHC

Potential Suitors: ATL, NYM

Bryant’s been in the thick of trade rumors for two years now, while also battling MLB & the Cubs in court per his service time workaround. The 28-year-old projects to earn just under $19M in the final year of arbitration, despite a 2020 season where he posted .206/.293/.351/.644 - all career lows. It’s a buy low time for a few teams, and the Braves stand out as the frontrunners this winter.

Kyle Schwarber, OF, CHC

Potential Suitors: NYY, MIN, SF

Schwarber and the Yankees were linked together last winter, and while it’s possible the two sides could still be discussing this move, the uncertainly of Giancarlo Stanton probably has NY thinking more conservatively. The Twins may need to replace Nelson Cruz’ power in 2021, and a healthy Schwarber, who’s projected to earn $8M in the final year of arbitration, could factor into that.

Francisco Lindor, SS, CLE

Potential Suitors: NYM, SD, SF, TOR

Easily the biggest name of the offseason, the Indians haven’t exactly been secretive about their wish to offload their charismatic shortstop this winter. But cash-strapped teams many without a glaring need at the position will make this easier said than done. Lindor projects to earn around $20M in his final arbitration year, & carries a $27.5M valuation in our system - but he’ll be seeking between $200M-$300M in a forthcoming extension. Will he be someone’s 1-year rental?

Carlos Carrasco, SP, CLE

Potential Suitors: LAA, NYY, NYM, OAK, TOR

Cookie Carrasco has 2 years, $24M to go on his current deal (plus a $3M buyout in 2023). While the long-term production likely won’t match the price tag, he’s still an upgrade for plenty of rotations heading into 2021. Cleveland needs outfield help, so teams like the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, or Angels who have a bit of a surplus in that department could be in play here.

Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL

Potential Suitors: NYM

It’s not a secret that despite signing the extension in Colorado, Arenado is not a happy camper. With $199M remaining through 2026, this won’t be an easy move to get done, but it’ll only take one buyer. Fresh off an approved ownership change, this would be a pretty nice way for the Mets to make some noise this winter, adding a clear upgrade both offensively & defensively to a young and potent lineup.

Trevor Story, SS, COL

Potential Suitors: NYY, TOR, SF, CIN

Story is entering a walk year in Colorado, set to make $17.5M in 2021 before becoming a free agent next winter. The Rockies likely aren’t in a position to extend him, so acquiring assets for him now appears to be their best move. It’s possible teams that swing and miss on Lindor will consider this their Plan B. The 27-year-old carries a near $27M valuation this winter.

Tony Gonsolin, SP, LAD

Potential Suitors: LAA, NYY, TOR, CIN

Gonsolin held his own for the Dodgers this postseason, but his role in the rotation seems shaky at best with David Price back into the equation going forward. He’s a buy low solid upside move for many teams looking to add depth in 2021, and he comes with 5 years of team control ahead of him.

Starling Marte, OF, MIA

Potential Suitors: TOR, ARZ, HOU

The Marlins gave up 3 prospects at the deadline to acquire Marte for the 2020 stretch run, so giving up on him this winter wouldn’t be ideal. But with a $12.5M salary to boot, he may be too rich for Miami’s plans. There’s a market for the 32-year-old if the Marlins need to find one.

Josh Hader, RP, MIL

Potential Suitors: LAA, ATL, PHI

The RP market is starting to feel like the placekicker market in the NFL. At some point, this position could legitimately become a round-robin carousel throughout the season. Hader’s numbers have declined a little bit each of the past 4 seasons, so the time to get out for Milwaukee seems to be right now. He projects to a near $6M salary in 2021, and still holds 2 more years of arbitration in tow, so there’s some value to be had for bigger markets & contenders.

Dominic Smith, 1B, NYM

Potential Suitors: CLE, COL, MIL

The Mets would be selling high on Smith, who had a breakout year in 2020 - especially as it pertains to extra base hits. He’s an above average defensive first baseman, and could become one of the centerpieces for a trade to acquire Nolan Arenado or Fracisco Lindor. Smith projects to around $3M in 2021, with 3 additional years of arbitration still on his plate.

Amed Rosario, SS, NYM

Potential Suitors: BAL, DET, KC

Rosario’s role was depleted by the immediate impact of youngster Andres Gimenez. Still just 24-years-old, Rosario has shown flashes of power, and his defensive play took major steps forward in 2020. He’s a nice fit for a low payroll, rebuilding organization looking to catch lightning with value.

Clint Frazier, OF, NYY

Potential Suitors: CIN, CLE, TB

Frazier proved he can hit consistently at the major league level in 2020, and might be too valuable (and inexpensive) to let go of right now for NY. But if the return is starting pitching, the Yankees will be listening. Frazier has 4 years of arbitration ahead of him, including a projected $2M salary for 2021.

Gary Sanchez, C, NYY

Potential Suitors: WAS, DET, SEA

Despite an improvement defensively, Sanchez’ batting metrics dipped to an ungodly .147/.253/.365/.618 in the shortened 2020 season. He struck out 41% of his at bats, and provided a negative WAR for the Yankees last year, putting his value on the trade block at an all-time low. With two years of arbitration left, including a projected $5.75M in 2021, the cost may be too rich for many teams to consider.

Joe Musgrove, SP, PIT

Potential Suitors: LAA, OAK, PHI, NYY

Probably the most attractive option on a depleted Pirates team, Musgrove enjoyed career numbers in 2020, including a 3.86 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, and an uptick in strikeouts. He’s a nice middle of the rotation addition to pitcher-needy teams, and comes at a projected $3.75M in 2021, then another year of arbitration in 2022.

Josh Bell, 1B, PIT

Potential Suitors: MIL, COL, CLE

Bell has two years of arbitration remaining, including a projected $6M salary for 2021. He posted career lows in 2020 on a Pirates team that continues to be underwhelming at best. Boston, Milwaukee, & the Nationals appear to be in need of a steady 1B bat for the upcoming season.

Brandon Belt, 1B, SF

Potential Suitors: MIL

With Buster Posey & Joey Bart now both rostered, Belt and his $16M salary for 2021 seem like overkill. The Giants may need to retain some of the cash to get a deal done, but a team like Milwaukee could be interested for the right price.

Blake Snell, SP, TB

Potential Suitors: All

On its surface, the Rays trading Snell seems ridiculous. Keeping aside the obvious discontent he showed with the quick plug and the Rays consistent short outings for their starting pitchers, this is about money. Snell’s salary jumps above $10M for 2021, nearly 20% of what the Rays like to carry their entire season payroll at. TB has been selling early on starting pitching since their inception, so at least fielding calls for Snell this winter would be status quo.

Lance Lynn, SP, TEX

Potential Suitors: TOR, LAA, HOU, NYM

Texas could be big time sellers this winter, & Lance Lynn on a modest $8M salary for 2021 would be a coveted name. The 33-year-old posted a 4 year low 3.32 ERA, 1.06 WHIP with just 25 walks in 84 IP last season, and seems a safe bet middle rotation acquisition for teams in need. The Angels have to be considered in the mix (for all pitchers)…

Randal Grichuk, OF, TOR

Potential Suitors: ARZ, BOS, HOU, TEX

The Blue Jays are likely going to upgrade the CF position this winter, putting Grichuk’s availability in question. He posted a nice uptick in production across the board in 2020, showcasing himself nicely for teams looking to add a veteran bat for less than $10M. Still, the $28M due over the next three seasons could be too steep for some.

Julio Jones (WR, ATL)

Age: 31
(UPDATE: Atlanta has ruled out this move) The biggest name on the hypothetical trade block will have $5.9M remaining on his 2020 salary at the deadline, then 3 years, $38M thereafter (fully guaranteed through 2021). His move would leave behind dead cap hits of $11.48M in 2020 & $23.25M in 2021 (a loss of $200,000).

James Carpenter (OG, ATL)

Age: 31
Carpenter is in year two of a 4 year $21M contract, but could be on the move this week as the Falcons continue to shuffle pieces and clear cap. He holds $2.11M remaining in 2020, then non-guaranteed salaries of $5.25M & $6.25M through 2022. His trade would leave behind dead cap hits to the Falcons of $3M in 2020, & $2.4M in 2021 ($4M saved).

Takkarist McKinley (DE, ATL)

Age: 24
The Faclons declined McKinley's 5th year option for 2021, so he's operating on an expiring contract that holds just $983k remaining in 2020. It's a buy low opportunity for contenders looking to shore up depth on their D-Line heading toward the postseason. A trade would leave behind $2.26M of dead cap to the Falcons.

Alex Mack (OC, ATL)

Age: 34 (35 in 3 weeks)
Mack has been consistent & reliable during his tenure in Atlanta, but age + a team going backwards is always a recipe for change. Mack will have $4.2M remaining on his contract at the deadline, leaving behind $6.3M of dead cap to the Falcons if moved.

Trent Murphy (DE, BUF)

Age: 29
Murphy was a release candidate this past summer, and with his role largely reduced now, must be a trade candidate as well. He holds $3.65M remaining in 2020 at the deadline, set to leave behind $5.62M of dead cap to the Bills per a trade.

Curtis Samuel (WR, CAR)

Age: 24
Samuel will have $645k remaining on his 2020 salary at the deadline, the final year of his rookie contract in Carolina. His move would leave behind $1.4M of dead cap to the Panthers, would may be unwilling to extend the young receiver with plenty of defensive holes to fill next offseason.

David Njoku (TE, CLE)

Age: 24
Njoku will have $933k remaining on his 2020 salary, then a $6M option for 2021 that’s currently guaranteed for injury only. A move out of Cleveland would leave behind $2.09M of dead cap in 2020.

A.J. Green (WR, CIN)

Age: 32
Green will have $9.5M remaining on his franchise tag at the deadline, and just doesn’t seem to have a good fit in the current Cincy offense. While health remains an issue, his experience will be tempting to contenders down the stretch. A move will leave behind $8.65M of dead cap to the Bengals.

Carlos Dunlap (DE, CIN)

Age: 31
(UPDATE: Dunlap was traded to Seattle) Dunlap has been rumored to be on the move a few offseasons now, and this trade deadline might actually see it come to fruition. He'll have $4.37M remaining on his 2020 salary at the deadline, then a non-guaranteed $11.25M for 2021. The Bengals would take on dead cap hits of $6.42M in 2020, & $2.25M in 2021 ($11.25M saved).

Dontari Poe (DT, DAL)

Age: 30
(UPDATE: Poe has been released) A move at the deadline would bring salaries of $2M in 2020, $4M in 2021, though none of the latter is guaranteed. The Cowboys would take on dead cap hits of $2.12M in 2020, $750,000 in 2021 ($4M saved).

DeMarcus Lawrence (DE, DAL)

Age: 28
Extended just last year, Lawrence hasn’t held up his end of the bargain to date. With Dallas going the wrong way currently, and the payroll only increasing, it seems likely that one of the bigger chips will fall at some point. Lawrence will have $1M remaining on his 2020 salary at the deadline, and a fully guaranteed $17M in 2021, with a veritable 2 year, $40M option thereafter. His move would leave behind $8.9M of 2020 dead cap, plus another $27M in 2021 (a loss of $2M).

Justin Simmons (S, DEN)

Age: 26
Simmons and the Broncos weren't close in contract negotiations this summer, & if a reunion isn't likely for 2021, getting an asset now makes sense. He'll have $6M of his franchise tag left to go this week, leaving behind $5.38M of dead cap to the Broncos.

Kerryon Johnson (RB, DET)

Age: 23
Johnson’s in a big time committee role in Detroit, so it’s possible teams inquire on the cost-controlled youngster. He’ll have $567k left on his 2020 salary at the deadline, plus a non-guaranteed $1.3M in 2021. A move would leave behind dead cap hits of $1.2M in 2020 & $702k in 2021 to the Lions.

Marvin Jones (WR, DET)

Age: 30
Jones will have $3.4M remaining in the final year of his contract with the Lions at the deadline. A move would leave behind $5.74M of dead cap to Detroit.

Montravious Adams (DT, GB)

Age: 25
Adams is in the final year of his rookie contract & has never really found his footing on the GB D-Line. He comes with a very afforadble $436k price tag for the remainder of 2020, and would leave behind $589k of dead cap to Green Bay.

Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)

Age: 27
Cooks will have $4.2M remaining on his 2020 salary at the deadline, then a non-guaranteed 3 year, $39M contract thereafter. The Texans would take on a $3.7M dead cap hit in 2020, clearing the rest from their books.

Duke Johnson (RB, HOU)

Age: 27
Johnson will have $2.13M remaining in 2020 salary & per-game active bonuses at the deadline. He holds a non-guaranteed $5.15M cash/cap for 2021 that seems unlikely wherever you ends up. A trade would leave behind $2M of dead cap to the Texans in 2020.

J.J. Watt (DE, HOU)

Age: 31
Watt is on the wrong side of 30, and injuries have been a factor in recent years, but the bigger red flag to seeing a trade out of Houston this week lies in his high price tag. Watt has $8.2M left on his 2020 salary, then a non-guaranteed $17.5M in 2021. His trade would leave behind $7.29M of dead cap to the Texans.

Desmond King (CB, LAC)

Age: 25
King is in the final year of his rookie contract, with about $1.13M left on the 2020 salary. He's a solid upgrade for fringe contenders such as Arizona or Buffalo, and his trade would leave behind $1.07M of dead cap to the Chargers.

Jordan Howard (RB, MIA)

Age: 25
Howard has barely found the field after signing a 2 year, $9.75M free agent contract this offseason. His trade would leave behind $3.8M of dead cap to the Dolphins, bringing salaries of $926k & $5M (non-guaranteed) with him to a new team.

Xavien Howard (CB, MIA)

Age: 27
The Dolphins would be moving a big contract in trading Howard this week as his deal will hold $55.6M remaining at the deadline. A move would bring along cap & cash hits of $6.3M in 2020 & $12.1M in 2021, then $12.9M, $12M, & $12.25M respectively through 2024. Miami would take on dead cap hits of $7M in 2020, & $6.7M in 2021 ($6.8M saved).

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, MIA)

Age: 37
The Dolphins are squarely in the conversation for the AFC East, so it's not likely they punt on their QB safety valve, but there are a few teams that could stand to upgrade this position, and Fitzpatrick, quite frankly, deserves the opportunity to be playing right now. He'd bring along a fully guaranteed $4.2M with him to a new team, leaving behind $3.76M of dead cap to Miami.

Riley Reiff (OT, MIN)

Age: 31 (32 in a month)
Reiff will have $3.12M remaining on is 2020 salary at the deadline, then a non-guaranteed (and highly unlikely) $11.75M in 2021. His move would leave behind dead cap hits of $5M in 2020, & $2.2M in 2021.

Kyle Rudolph (TE, MIN)

Age: 30
Rudolph restructured to stick around the past few seasons, but a downward spiral for the Vikings could mean an exit now. Rudolph will have $3.7M remaining on his 2020 salary, then a non-guaranteed 3 years, $27M thereafter. The Vikings would take on dead cap hits of $5.1M in 2020, & $4.35M in 2021 ($5.1M saved).

Anthony Harris (S, MIN)

Age: 29
Harris will have $6M of his 2020 franchise tag remaining at the deadline, leaving behind $5.4M to the Vikings should he be moved.

Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)

Age: 30
(UPDATE: The Vikings have ruled out this move) An unlikely candidate (but certain to draw interest anyway), Thielen will have $2.6M remaining at the deadline in 2020, then 4 years, $52.5M left thereafter. His trade would leave behind $10M of dead cap to the Vikings in 2020, & another $5.4M in 2021 ($8.1M saved).

Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)

Age: 32
While highly unlikely, no Vikings player is safe right now. Cousins will have $5M left in 2020 at the deadline, then a fully guaranteed $21M in 2021, & a $35M salary in 2022 that fully guarantees next March. His trade this week would leave behind dead cap hits of $15.9M in 2020, & $20M in 2021 ($11M saved).

Stephon Gilmore (CB, NE)

Age: 30
There were rumors that Gilmore was on the block this offseason, so if the Patriots falter over the next few weeks, his name could pop back up in conversations. Gilmore will have $8.13M remaining at the deadline, with a ridiculously small $7.5M to be made in 2021, so a trade now almost certainly means an extension this spring. A move would leave behind $7.3M of dead cap in 2020, plus another $7.6M in 2021 ($9.5M savings).

Sony Michel (RB, NE)

Age: 25
Michel has found himself on the IR & the COVID list in 2020, but he also posted one of his better performances as a pro as well. It seems unlikely there’s a long-term marriage between he and the Patriots, so a move at some point seems imminent. Michel will hold a $717k salary at the deadline, plus a mostly guaranteed $1.8M price tag in 2021. His move would leave behind dead cap hits of $1.9M in 2020 & another $1.27M in 2021.

Joe Thuney (OG, NE)

Age: 27
Thuney was surprisingly tagged this season, & there's not a clear path to a long-term extension for him in New England going forward. He holds $7.82M salary at the deadline, & a trade would leave behind $6.95M of dead cap to the Patriots.

Michael Thomas (WR, NO)

Age: 27
Maybe the most unlikely name on this list, but a rocky 2020 at least puts him in the conversation. Thomas will have just $529k remaining on his 2020 salary at the deadline, plus a mostly guaranteed $12.6 salary for 2021. After that, his $15.35M salary in 2022 is guaranteed for injury now, but doesn’t fully lock in until March of 2022. A trade this month leaves behind $6.47M of dead cap to the Saints in 2020, and another $20M in 2021 (loss of $1.2M).

Evan Engram (TE, NYG)

Age: 26
Engram would be a $1.02M fully guaranteed salary with him to a new team at the deadline, plus a $6M salary in 2021, currently guaranteed for injury only. The Giants would take on a $2.39M dead cap hit in 2020.

Golden Tate (WR, NYG)

Age: 32
Tate will have $4.2M left on his 2020 salary at the deadline, then 2 years, $14.5 million, non-guaranteed, thereafter. The Giants would take on dead cap hits of $6.1M this year, & $4.7M next year ($6.4M saved in 2021).

Dalvin Tomlinson (DT, NYG)

Age: 26
Tomlinson will have $576k remaining on his contract at the deadline, in the final year of his rookie contract. The Giants would take on an $878k dead cap hit per the move.

George Fant (OT, NYJ)

Age: 28
Fant holds $2.6M remaining on his 2020 salary, then hits of $8.4M & $9.65M over the next two seasons respectively. His trade would leave behind $4.6M of dead cap to the Jets.

Quinnen Williams (DT, NYJ)

Age: 22
UPDATE (The Jets have ruled out this move) A trade of Williams after moving on from Jamal Adams would be a full defensive tear down, as the young, talented lineman is in just year two of his rookie contract. He'll hold just $357k at the deadline, with a fully guaranteed $3.6M & $5.1M respectively through 2022 thereafter. The Jets would take on dead cap hits of $7.1M in 2020, & $10M in 2021 (a loss of $1M). This one seems unlikely for a lot of reasons.

Alshon Jeffery (WR, PHI)

Age: 30
The oft-injured wideout has been a financial sore for the Eagles the past few seasons, and his time in Philly may soon be coming to an end. Jeffery will have $5.24M left on his 2020 salary, then a non-guaranteed $13M in 2021. The Eagles would take on dead cap hits of $10.15M in 2020, & $10.6M in 2021 ($7.8M saved).

Malik Jackson (DT, PHI)

Age: 30
The Eagles need to be considering shedding cap while maintaining a serviceable team for their unimpressive NFC East run. Philly has depth on the D-Line, so grabbing a draft asset to clear Jackson off of the 2021 books makes sense. He has just $555k remaining in 2020, then a non-guaranteed $9M in 2021. His trade would leave behind dead cap hits to the Eagles of $4.1M in 2020, & $12.6M in 2021 ($1M saved).

Jacob Hollister (TE, SEA)

Age: 26
Hollister has $1.7M left on his restricted tender salary and is scheduled to become a free agent after 2020. His price tag is a little more costly than Engram or Njoku, but the trade price will likely be much less. His move would leave behind $1.5M of dead cap to the Seahawks.

Dante Pettis (WR, SF)

Age: 25
Pettis has never found his footing in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, and his controlled cost could be attractive to teams in need of WR depth. He’ll hold a $562k salary at the deadline, with a non-guaranteed $1.35M scheduled for 2021. His trade would leave behind $1.1M of dead cap to the 49ers in 2020, & $683k in 2021.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL

Projection: 4 years, $90M (thru 2025)

Freeman will be entering a contract year in 2021 after a 60 game season where he posted .341/.462/1.102 line, 13 HRs, 53 RBIs. That’s a 143 RBI pace. He’s still as productive and reliable as ever, and now he’s surrounding by a young team that can hit around him. Locking in the 31 year old for a few more seasons seems a no brainer.

Marcell Ozuna, OF, ATL

Projection: 3 years, $60M (thru 2023)

After declining the qualifying offer from St. Louis, Ozuna wound up signing a one year deal with the Braves for nearly exactly that price ($18M). The 29 year old put up .338/.431/1.067, with 14 doubles, 18 homers, and 56 RBIs in 60 games. He’ll be seeking multi-year security this time around, & it’s tough to imagine the Braves letting him walk.

Jeremy Jeffress, RP, CHC

Projection: 2 year $14M

Jeffress became the rock that solidified a chaotic Cubs bullpen down the stretch. His age (33) is a bit of a red flag, but he’s done enough to secure a legitimate free agent deal should he hit the market.

Alex Colome, RP, CHW

Projection: 3 years, $44M

Colome was simply outstanding in 2020 despite a stink on the IL with back spasms. His consistency helped a young WhiteSox roster push toward the top of the AL for much of the season. Paying closers with small sample sizes big money has backfired for many teams, but it’s tough to see Chicago passing here.

Trevor Bauer, SP, CIN

Projection: 4 years, $88M

Bauer’s tenure in Cincinnati has always been assumed as a “rental”, but with the Reds now into the postseason, a magical run could change that tune. He’s been public in stating he’d prefer one year deals to control his career path, but as the top starting pitcher set to hit the market, he’ll likely be shown plenty of multi-year offers with big time bucks. His best comp is currently Yu Darvish who locked in $21M per year with the Cubs.

Francisco Lindor, SS, CLE

Projection: 8 years, $222M

Lindor’s been one of the elite young stars in the game since joining the fold in 2015, but he had his worst season statistically in 2020. The 26-year-old has one more arbitration eligible year in 2021 before hitting the open market, and the Indians will have the tough decision of holding on to him through the end, or flipping him early enough to pull back a decent trade haul. His two-year splits align him with Manny Machado, who scored $30M a year from the Padres, with a down here bringing his projection to the $27M mark.

George Springer, OF, HOU

Projection: 4 years, $100M

Springer followed up an outstanding 2019 with a pretty great 2020 campaign, though the splits came back down to earth a bit. He’ll enter free agency at 31 years old, but has shown enough consistency to warrant a multi-year payday, though the current state of flux the Astros are in may mean he finds a new home in 2021.

Corey Seager, SS, LAD

Projection: 4 years, $82M

Seager nearly matched his 2019 production at 135 games in 2020 with 52 games. Needless to say, he’s back in the major extension discussion. In terms of shortstops, Xander Bogaerts $20M mark is the high bar, and Seager’s production gets him there. The Dodgers already fed Betts, & have Cody Bellinger’s contract looming in the weeds. Paying him his final arbitration salary is risky, but it might be better business than having to buy high with a big time deal right now.

Nelson Cruz, DH, MIN

Projection: 1 year, $10M

There’s no easy way to value a 40 year old designated hitter, but Cruz’s consistency and power production forces him into this extension conversation. He’s posted 57 HRs & 141 RBIs in his last 173 games, keeping his batting average north of .300, and an OPS north of 1.000. He earned $12M. Does he come back for $10M?

Michael Conforto, OF, NYM

Projection: 7 years, $178M

Conforto has shown flashes of stardom over the past 3 seasons in NY, & really took the reigns as the Mets most important bat in 2020. He flirted with the batting title, showing both power and opposite field ability at the plate. His strikeout rate and somewhat dampened RBI total keep his projection from rising to elite financials, but the Mets new owners will still need to reach deep into their pockets to lock up Conforto.

Pete Alonso, 1B, NYM

Projection: 6 years, $100M

After a record-setting rookie campaign, Alonso fell back down to earth in 2020 - though he wound up on pace for 40 HRs/90 RBIs still. It remains to be seen how complete of a hitter Pete will be, but his power impact is unquestioned. The 25-year-old has 4 more years of team control remaining, but the Mets could look to offer him an Acuna-type deal (8 years, $100M) to get out in front.

Justin Wilson, RP, NYM

Projection: 2 years, $15M

The Mets’ bullpen has been a rollercoaster for two seasons now, but Wilson has been the most consistent of the group. If NY decides to make him their 8th inning arm going forward, they’ll need to up his current $5M price tag.

Aaron Judge, OF, NYY

Projection: 8 years, $200M

Judge offers elite production, & an elite NY personality - but his health has become a serious red flag. The Yankees haven’t spent recklessly in quite some time now, and extending Judge would qualify as a risky signing. The 28-year-old has 2 more years of arbitration ahead of him, so it’s not a necessary move, but still one we expect NY to make sooner rather than later.

D.J. LeMahieu, 2B, NYY

Projection: 2 years, $34M

The Yankees probably weren’t planning LeMahieu being a long-term option when they signed him away from Colorado 2 years ago, but after 102 RBIs in 2019, & a batting title in 2020, it seems impossible they let him walk away.

Liam Hendriks, RP, OAK

Projection: 4 years $62M

The A’s generally don’t keep pitchers into their free agency years, but it’s tough to ignore how valuable Hendriks has been to Oakland since taking over the closer role. There’s likely at least one team ready to offer Hendriks top reliever money on the open market, so Oakland will need to come close to keep him.

J.T. Realmuto, C, PHI

Projection: 4 years, $74M

Realmuto has a chance to be one of the top position players to hit the open market this winter, and the Phillies missing the postseason could mean he allows that to happen. The power numbers have been consistent for 3 years now, with a batting average hovering at .275 while slugging nearly .500. There are a dozen teams in need of a catcher upgrade, so Philly will need to pay to keep him away from free agency. If he can break out of the "catcher" label, his numbers comp. nicely to that of Paul Goldschmidt or Eric Hosmer, raising his potential baseline to $22M.

Kirby Yates and/or Trevor Rosenthal, RP, SD

Projection: 2 years, $18M

The Padres found the Rosenthal of old when they acquired him to replace the injury Yates. Both can now be important pieces for a pitching staff that has improved mightily over the past calendar year, and both are eligible for free agency this winter. At 30, Rosenthal is the younger of the two, but Yates has been a more consistent option for SD.

Juan Soto, OF, WAS

Projection: 6 years, $150M

The Nats had an awful post-World Series campaign, but that didn't stop Juan Soto from making his case as the best all around hitter in baseball. The 21-year-old has four years of team control remaining, but the Nats should consider buying all of it out and then some. The Nats will look to Ronald Acuna's 8 year $100M extension in Atlanta, but Soto's predictive value is MUCH higher. His production aligns more with Mike Trout at age 22, when he penned a 6 year, $144M extension in LA.

As expected the cornerback market was reset this month with the multi-year extensions for Tre’Davious White (BUF) & Jalen Ramsey (LAR). We’ll take a close look at these deals, understanding just how much separation exists between the two deals, signed almost simultaneously.

Jalen Ramsey’s 5 year $100M extension

• Total Value: $100M (1st)
• AAV: $20M (1st)
• AAV % of Cap: 10% (1st)
• 1-Year 1 Cash: $26.2M (1st)
• 2-Year Cash: $43.7M (1st)
• 3-Year Cash: $58.7M (1st)
• 4-Year Cash: $75.7M (1st)
• Guarantee at Signing: $43.7M (2nd)
• Practical Guarantees: $71.2M (1st)
• Signing Bonus: $25M (1st)

Often times blockbuster extensions lose substance as we dig deeper into the details. That’s just simply not the case here for Ramsey’s contract, which ranks first in all categories with the exception of the upfront guarantees. However the $43.7M guaranteed immediately is a bit deceiving, as Ramsey has “guarantee mechanisms” built into both his 2022 & 2023 salaries, meaning they will become fully guaranteed a year early, making them almost certain to vest. By March of 2022, all $75.7M will have been paid or fully guaranteed.

Potential Out
In short, this is a 4 year, $75.7M contract before the guarantees run out, an adjusted AAV of nearly $19M - still tops in the league by a whopping $2M.

Cap Management
The new deal drops Ramsey’s 2020 cap figure from $13.7M, to $6.2M, a savings of $7.5M to the Rams this season. This figure jumps to $22.5M in 2021, but the Rams almost CERTAINLY built in an automatic restructure that will convert $16M or so of his base salary into a signing bonus, dropping his cap hit next year to around $9.3M. In other words, the cap space saved in 2020 will rollover and nearly pay off all of his 2021 cap figure - a veritable wash for the first two seasons.

With the restructure, Ramsey will carry cap figures of $23M, $25M, $26M & $22M the rest of the way. Assuming the league salary cap bounces back by 2022, these should be tenable for the Rams.

Cash Flow
Byron Jones’ free agent deal with the Dolphins offers the next best cash flow to Jalen Ramseys, but in truth it pales in comparison.

Year 1: Jones, $26M; Ramsey, $26.2M
Year 2: Jones, $40M; Ramsey, $43.7M
Year 3: Jones, $54.3M; Ramsey, $58.7M
Year 4: Jones, $68.4M; Ramsey, $75.7M

Tre’Davious White’s 4 year $69M extension

• Total Value: $69M (5th
• AAV: $17.25M (2nd)
• AAV % of Cap: 8.7% (3rd)
• 1-Year 1 Cash: $18.75M (6th)
• 2-Year Cash: $37M (3rd)
• 3-Year Cash: $48M (3rd)
• 4-Year Cash: $58.1M (4th)
• Guarantee at Signing: $36.7M (3rd)
• Practical Guarantees: $55.25M (2nd)
• Signing Bonus: $10.5M (11th)

The most important point to remember here is that Tre’Davious White had two years remaining on his rookie contract with the Bills at the time of this signing ($12M cash), so it wasn’t imperative that Buffalo structure his cash flow as aggressively as the Rams did with Ramsey. With that said, the proof is in the above rankings.

Potential Out
White will see 3 years $48M from this deal before a rolling guarantee on his 2023 salary becomes an essential option for the Bills. Assuming he sticks on this contract through that point, he’ll see $58.15M over the next 4 seasons, an adjusted AAV of $14.5M - $4.5M less than Ramsey’s.

Cap Management
The Bills were in a much better place financially speaking than the Rams were at the time of this contract, but all teams are looking to reduce their cap allocations over the next two seasons for obvious reasons. A looming potential extension for QB Josh Allen next summer was also a consideration for his White’s deal is structured.

Tre’Davious White’s cap figure rose $8.5M in 2020, & $3.75M in 2021. The Bills utilizing a double bonus system to keep the initial cap figures much lower than that of Jalen Ramsey’s, paying out a $10.5M signing bonus this year, & a $7.5M bonus in 2021. His cap figures post as $11.7M, $14M, $14.6M, $13.75M, $14M, & $14M - team friendly to stay the least.

It’s also possible Buffalo frees up a bit more space with a restructure of White’s $10.45M base salary next season. A full restructure would free up an additional $7.5M of cap space for the 2021 season.

Cash Flow
White’s contract also contains more “bells and whistles” than Ramseys, including per game active bonuses of $250,000 the final four seasons, and a $300,000 workout bonus the rest of the way. Small, incremental March roster bonuses are built into 2022-2025 as well, offering a bit of a staggered cash approach for the player.

Concluding Thoughts

When Jalen Ramsey’s deal was announced, it was clear as day that Tre’Davious White’s contract wasn’t in the same stratosphere. However, with the details now laid out in front of us, it’s clear that White’s deal isn’t even 2ND amongst his position in many of the major categories. Buffalo scored a fairly team-friendly deal from their All-Pro DB.

In terms of Ramsey, did the Rams reach too high? As many have noted, the trade compensation that brought Jalen to LA (two first round picks & a 4th round pick) immediately pushed his contract demands to a new level. Subsequently, the WR market continued to rise this summer, with DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, & Amari Cooper eclipsing the $20M mark. The cornerback market has long been trying to keep up with the rise of the WR numbers, so the push to $20M was always in play here, and Ramsey’s base value reaches that plateau exactly.

Who benefits next? The player most likely to see a financial gain isn’t even a cornerback. Newly acquired Seahawks safety Jamal Adams now sits as the next player to be traded for two first rounds picks (plus a 3rd, & a player) with his eyes on a sophomore contract extension. The current high bar at safety is Budda Baker’s new $14.75M mark, a figure Adams should easily surpass in a year or so (his contract will not be addressed until after the 2020 season per terms of the trade).