Just like we did with 2023 player and team options, we’re going to take a shot at projecting what happens with players who have contract guarantee dates. Unlike options, which all have to be decided upon by June 29 at the latest, contract guarantees can stretch out all the way until the league-wide guarantee date of January 10, 2024.

Since this focus here is to tie these projections to the start of NBA free agency on June 30, we’re going to narrow our focus to those contracts that have a guarantee date of mid-July at the latest. If any of the deals we’re going to project have a later guarantee date, we’ll call out their reason for inclusion.

Atlanta Hawks

Bruno Fernando - $2,581,522 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Fernando will probably have his deal guaranteed. It’s only slightly above the minimum and he’s a solid fifth big for the Hawks.

Tyrese Martin - $1,719,864 – fully guaranteed 7/21

Martin didn’t show much in his rookie season, but he’s worth keeping around for some wing depth. He’s also a nice tax-variance guy to have on roster, since he was drafted by Atlanta.

Garrison Mathews - $2,000,000 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Mathews can really shoot. For $2 million, he’s a great depth piece on the wing. The challenge is that Atlanta has a million wings already, and they are looking to get under the tax. This one is 50-50, but we’ll guess Mathews stays for now.

Boston Celtics

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Brooklyn Nets

Royce O’Neale - $9,500,000 – fully guaranteed 7/10

This one is very easy. O’Neale’s contract is already guaranteed for $2.5 million. He’s also pretty good and valuable for the Nets as a rotation guy or trade asset. He’s staying.

Edmond Sumner - $2,239,943 – fully guaranteed 7/5

Sumner has made it all the way back from a torn ACL. Pending what Brooklyn’s plans are in the backcourt, he could stick around for another season. If the Nets add a couple of guards, Sumner could go. We’ll guess he stays for now.

Charlotte Hornets

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Chicago Bulls

Marko Simonovic - $1,836,096 – fully guaranteed 7/7

Simonovic hasn’t had any sort of impact in the NBA, playing on 16 games in two seasons. But he’s been solid enough in the G League. He’ll probably stick in Chicago, unless the Bulls end up dancing around the luxury tax.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cedi Osman - $6,718,842 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Osman is a part of the Cavs rotation, for at least one more season. He’ll be back in Cleveland.

Dallas Mavericks

Reggie Bullock - $10,489,600 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Bullock’s contract is more than half-guaranteed already. He’s also a regular rotation player for the Mavs. He’ll be back.

Denver Nuggets

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Detroit Pistons

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Golden State Warriors

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Houston Rockets

Daishen Nix - $1,836,096 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Nix is probably going to get caught up in the Rockets desire to create over $60 million in cap space. In addition, the Rockets roster is starting to get stuffed. That’ll likely see Nix waived.

Indiana Pacers

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

LA Clippers

Brandon Boston Jr. - $1,839,096 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Boston has shown enough in his first two years that he’ll be back with the Clippers.

Eric Gordon - $20,917,902 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Nearly $21 million for Gordon is a lot. But it’s just cash for the Clippers. And that $20.9 million is a nice piece of salary-matching in a future trade. LA will guarantee Gordon.

Jason Preston - $1,839,096 – fully guaranteed 7/7

Preston’s first two years have been spent injured, followed by a season mostly in the G League. But Preston did show a lot in the G League. He’ll be back, unless the Clippers need a roster spot.

Los Angeles Lakers

Mo Bamba - $10,300,000 – fully guaranteed 6/29

The Lakers are likely to add a bunch of salary by re-signing some of their league-high 10 free agents. Keeping Bamba at $10.3 million would likely put Los Angeles in the luxury tax. Because of that, look for him to be waived, but potentially re-signed on a smaller contract.

Jarred Vanderbilt - $4,698,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Vanderbilt’s contract is already partially guaranteed and will become fully guaranteed by the end of June. He’s been a starter and key rotation player since the Lakers acquired him at the trade deadline. He’s not going anywhere.

Memphis Grizzlies

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Miami Heat

Haywood Highsmith - $1,902,137 – fully guaranteed 7/15

The Heat will guarantee Highsmith. He’s been a rotation player at times and Miami can use all the value contracts they can get on an increasingly expensive roster.

Milwaukee Bucks

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Minnesota Timberwolves

Jordan McLaughlin - $2,320,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

McLaughlin has regularly been the Wolves backup point guard. Considering his deal is only just above the minimum, he’ll be back in Minnesota.

Taurean Prince - $7,455,000 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Prince has been rotation regular for Minnesota. The Wolves will bring him back, because he could be nice piece of salary-matching in a trade, if nothing else.

New Orleans Pelicans

Garrett Temple - $5,401,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

This one is pending how much the Pelicans want to stay out of the luxury tax. If New Orleans wants to get out of the tax early, they’ll waive Temple. If they think they can make a trade later to avoid the tax, they’ll keep him. Or, if the Pels are ok paying the tax, they’ll keep Temple on the books and see if he can be put in a bigger trade down the line.

New York Knicks

Jericho Sims - $1,927,896 - $1.2 million guaranteed 7/6

Sims has done well as a third center and occasional spot starter for the Knicks. He’ll have his deal step up from $600,000 guaranteed to $1.2 million, and then eventually to fully guaranteed in mid-August.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl - $1,900,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

After a promising rookie season, Robinson-Earl backslid a bit in his sophomore season. His main issue was with injuries. There’s still more than enough talent there for the Thunder to bring him back on such a small salary.

Orlando Magic

Bol Bol - $2,200,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Bol’s promising start eventually came back to earth last season, but he’s still a bargain on this contract. The Magic will guarantee his salary.

Markelle Fultz - $17,000,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Fultz has bounced back from his torn ACL and looks really good again. He’ll have his deal fully guaranteed by Orlando.

Gary Harris - $13,000,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Harris is coming off a good season that most missed because Orlando wasn’t a good team last year. The Magic are going to keep Harris, because he’s valuable as a trade asset, if nothing else. But they like him plenty as a player, as well.

Jonathan Isaac - $17,400,000 – fully guaranteed 1/10

Isaac’s inclusion here is less about his guarantee date and more about Orlando making a decision before free agency opens. The Magic could waive Isaac and be on the hook for $7.6 million. If they do that, they’re likely loading up on cap space to make a run at a major player. If Isaac is still with Orlando, he’ll probably stick until at least the trade deadline. We’re betting on the latter being the case.

Philadelphia 76ers

De’Anthony Melton - $8,000,000 – fully guaranteed 7/3

Melton is already guaranteed to get $1.5 million, but as a key rotation player for the Sixers, he’ll be getting the full amount.

Phoenix Suns

Jordan Goodwin - $1,927,896 – $963,948 guaranteed 8/1

Goodwin was added to the Bradley Beal trade, because the Suns need some depth. Even if it happens later in the offseason, Goodwin will see his guaranteed amount increase in August and eventually to full in January.

Cameron Payne - $6,500,000 – fully guaranteed 6/29

Payne may well be the Suns starting point guard at this moment. Considering he’s already guaranteed $2 million, he’ll see his deal become fully guarantee. At that point, Payne’s deal is at least a nice piece of salary-matching in another trade for the Suns.

Portland Trail Blazers

Jabari Walker - $1,719,864 – fully guaranteed 7/20

Walker already has $400,000 of his deal guaranteed, but he showed enough to stick in Portland for the season.

Trendon Watford - $1,836,096 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Watford became a key rotation contributor for the Blazers last year. He’s not going anywhere.

Jeenathan Williams - $1,719,864 – fully guaranteed 8/1

Williams’ status probably depends on what else happens with Portland’s roster. If they need another wing, he’ll stay. If the roster is crowded, he could be waived. Summer League is a chance for him to show he deserves to stick.

Sacramento Kings

P.J. Dozier - $2,413,304 – fully guaranteed 7/10

The Kings swerve at the draft to salary-dump Richaun Holmes to create cap space means Dozier probably gets caught up in the swirl and waived. But don’t rule out a return to Sacramento after they do their other offseason work.

San Antonio Spurs

No contracts with June or July guarantee dates

Toronto Raptors

Joe Wieskamp - $1,927,896 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Wieskamp has shown enough in both the NBA and the G League that he’ll probably be back in Toronto. He could provide a little shooting for a team that doesn’t have enough of it.

Thaddeus Young - $8,000,000 – fully guaranteed 6/30

Young fell out of the Raptors rotation last season. If Toronto finds themselves working up against the tax line, which could happen pending re-signings, Young will probably get waived to save $7 million (he’s already $1 million guaranteed). If Toronto needs to use his salary in a trade, Young could see his deal become guaranteed.

Utah Jazz

Kelly Olynyk - $12,195,122 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Olynyk’s deal is already guaranteed for $3 million. He’ll get the rest of it guaranteed, as he’s a rotation player for the Jazz. He could also be involved in a trade, as Utah continues to evolve their roster.

Washington Wizards

Chris Paul - $30,800,000 – fully guaranteed 6/28

Paul’s deal will become fully guaranteed ahead of his trade to the Golden State Warriors for Jordan Poole.

It finally happened! The Atlanta Hawks traded John Collins. After years (without even a hint of exaggeration) of rumors, Atlanta found a trade partner for Collins and the $78.5 million in remaining salary on his contract.

Collins will head to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Rudy Gay and a second-round draft pick.

Not exactly an overwhelming return for Atlanta, until the Hawks get to look at a significantly cleaner, and cheaper, future cap sheet. And that’s what drove this trade, more than anything Atlanta got back in terms of the player and the pick.

The Mechanics

This trade is another one that will have to take place after the league year changes over. There’s two parts to that and both are equally fascinating.

Let’s start with the Hawks side. Atlanta is sending out John Collins and his $25,340,000 salary, so they could have easily absorbed Rudy Gay’s $6,479,000 salary in the deal. But to maximize the amount of the Traded Player Exception (TPE) they can create, the Hawks will take Gay into their existing TPE for Justin Holiday.

Here’s where it gets fun! That Holiday TPE is $6,292,400. Under the current CBA (which expires when the calendar flips to July 1), the Holiday TPE wouldn’t have been big enough to absorb Gay’s salary. But in the new CBA, the little bit of extra matching in a trade increases from $100,000 to $250,000. That increase will allow Atlanta to bring Gay in via the Holiday TPE. The Hawks will then create the league’s currently largest TPE of $25,340,000 for the full value of Collins’ outgoing salary.

On the Jazz side of the trade, they are bringing Collins in via cap space, so they need to delay until the year flips to have that cap space. Utah will have enough cap space to do this deal, whether Jordan Clarkson and/or Talen Horton-Tucker opt out of their contracts or not. We currently project Clarkson to opt out (with the idea of adding more years onto his deal) and Horton-Tucker to opt in. But even if both opt in, the Jazz will have enough cap room to complete this deal.

If Clarkson opts out as projected, Utah will use a large chunk of their available cap space. Pre-trade for Collins, we projected the Jazz to have $47.2 million in cap space. After trading for Collins, we now project Utah to have $28.4 million in cap space.

Utah Jazz

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $25,340,000
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $6,479,000
Difference: $18,861,000

We’ll start with the Jazz, because they are the ones acquiring a player to play for them. Is John Collins a perfect fit in Utah? Not really. Is he a bad fit? Not even close.

On the cap sheet, this is grabbing Collins virtually for free. Unless Utah had dreams of spending big on free agents, this is good spending of money they had to spend anyway. The Jazz have very little salary locked in beyond this upcoming season, so adding Collins does very little to limit future flexibility.

On the court, Collins will fit better than many think. He should slot in between Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler in one of the NBA’s biggest frontcourts. For those who didn’t spend a lot of time watching the Jazz last season, that might seem like a wonky fit, but Markkanen is really a jumbo-sized three. He’s played at small forward a lot the last two seasons, with both Utah and the Cleveland Cavaliers before that. It’s a spot where Markkanen is comfortable and a dominant offensive weapon. Defensively, it’s not perfect, but Kessler is pretty good at cleaning up messes at the rim.

If Collins can recover his shooting form (he dipped to just 29% from three after being at 38% over the first five years of his career), he’ll fit in just fine in a versatile, inside-outside frontcourt. Collins will also help further add to what was a dominant rebounding team, especially when Kessler became the starting center.

This trade also buys even more time for rookie Taylor Hendrick to adjust to the NBA, as he projects to be the primary backup behind both Markkanen and Collins. It also frees up the Jazz to trade Kelly Olynyk, should they find a deal they like.

Mostly, this trade is about Danny Ainge and Justin Zanik picking off an undervalued player because the Hawks had to get out of the luxury tax for this season and had to create some long-term flexibility.

Atlanta Hawks

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $6,479,000
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $25,340,000
Difference: -$18,861,000

The Hawks part of this trade is simple: They cleared out lots of space around the luxury tax line for this season, going from $5.4 million over the tax to about $8.8 million under the tax. In addition, Atlanta got off the $78.5 million owed to Collins through 2025-26.

The former is good and helps new general manager Landry Fields achieve a reported mandate to get under the tax line for this season. But the latter is the real win here.

Even without Collins in the picture, the Hawks have over $277 million in guaranteed salary committed to just five players through 2026-27. For just the 2024-25 season, Atlanta has over $139 million locked in for seven players. Both short- and long-term the cap sheet was bloated with Collins on the books. Now, that’s less of an issue.

That’s important because Atlanta has three rotation players up for new contracts between now and next summer. Dejounte Murray is highly unlikely to extend his deal this season, as he’d leave too much money on the table, even with the NBA’s more-lucrative veteran extension rules. But Murray is going to get a hefty deal in free agency in 2024, be it from the Hawks or someone else. Atlanta can feel better about it being from them with Collins’ contract out of the picture.

This summer, both Onyeka Okongwu and Saddiq Bey are eligible for rookie scale extensions. Okongwu is seen as a key part of the Hawks future, so he probably benefits the most in the immediate from Collins being traded. Fields and crew can feel a lot better about locking up Okongwu long-term with Collins off the books.

Bey is in a bit of a weirder spot, but his chances of landing either an extension from Atlanta, or a new deal as a restricted free agent in 2024, go way up with Collins out of the picture. Some of the Hawks desire to extend Bey will be dependent on how they see the forward spot between him, De’Andre Hunter and Jalen Johnson playing out.

On the court, this trade won’t do much for Atlanta. Rudy Gay might stick around as a locker room veteran, or he could be waived to open up a roster spot for a younger player. Presumably either Bey or Johnson will slide into the starting lineup, with the other becoming the primary backup forward. The new, giant TPE won’t get used right away, but it’s a nice thing to have handy to help execute a trade down the line.

No matter if it was driven by a mandate to dodge the tax this season, or to free up long-term cap/tax flexibility, the Hawks achieved their goal of finally trading John Collins. Now, Atlanta has to go about figuring out how to be better on the court with the formerly longest-tenured Hawk off to Utah.

It’s been a rough decade for running backs as NFL teams have engaged in a full-scale lockout for most players post rookie contracts. But as is the case with everything - a few exceptions continue to remain. We’ll take a look at which active running backs have a chance to buck the devaluation trend, and lock in a multi-year contract extension in the coming months.

Related:
Top Average Paid Running Backs
Largest Running Back Guarantees
2024 Running Back Free Agents

Jonathan Taylor (Colts, 24)

Contract Status: 1 year, $4.3M, 2024 UFA
Calculated Valuation: 4 years, $52M ($13M per year)

Taylor posted 3,600+ yards from scrimmage over his first 2 NFL seasons, including 76 catches out of the backfield in Indy. But an ankle injury (and possible regression?) hampered his 2022 campaign, slowing the conversation about the next McCaffrey type extension considerably. With his rookie contract set to expire after the upcoming season, is Taylor the next prime candidate for a tag or two?

Prediction: Taylor is offered a projected $13M franchise tag next February, but the two sides agree on a multi-year extension during the offseason, due in large part to the QB1’s rookie contract.

Saquon Barkley (Giants, 26)

Contract Status: 1 year, $10.091M tag offered
Calculated Valuation: 4 years, $49M ($12.25M per year)

Barkley has been public both about his dissatisfaction with the Giants recent contract offers, and with the possibility of playing out a franchise tag in 2023. Something’s going to need to give as the July 15th extension deadline approaches - because sitting out just hasn’t proven to be the stance it used to be. He’s worth a two year guarantee, even with the health risks.

Prediction: The Giants and Barkley agree to a 4 year, $60M contract extension that includes $25M fully guaranteed, $3M more than he would cash on back to back franchise tags. 

Josh Jacobs (Raiders, 25)

Contract Status: 1 year, $10.091M tag offered
Calculated Valuation: 4 years, $51M ($12.75M per year)

Financially speaking, Jacobs and Barkley are walking down the same path right now, but the two situations feel very different on the surface. A) Jacobs has been radio silent about his future B) The Raiders aren’t necessarily in “contention” like the Giants may be come Christmas. C) Jacobs is an entire year younger than Barkley, which could give him leeway to sit this season out while demanding a contract or trade. Statistically, Jacobs found his pass-catching legs in 2021, then put the whole package together in his contract season last year (2,000 yards from scrimmage, 53 catches, 12 TDs). He’s worthy of a two year guarantee right now.

Hot Take Prediction: Jacobs is traded to the Cincinnati Bengals, for Joe Mixon and a pick, who in turn extend him to a 4 year, $55M contract, with $25M fully guaranteed through 2024. 

Measured Prediction: He signs the tag, the Raiders stumble out of the gate, and he demands a deadline trade.

Tony Pollard (Cowboys, 26)

Contract Status: 1 year, $10.091M tag signed
Calculated Valuation: 4 year, $40M ($10M per year)

Pollard was on a fast track to a multi-year extension in Dallas when a broken fibula derailed the process. The Cowboys responded with a tag offered, and Pollard signed it almost immediately. Dallas has yet to replace Zeke Elliott on the roster, potentially further showing their trust and need for Pollard in this offseason.

Prediction: The two sides agree to a compromising midpoint before July 15th, and Pollard signs a 3 year, $27M contract, with $15M fully guaranteed.

JK Dobbins (Ravens, 25)

Contract Status: 1 year, $1.4M, 2024 UFA
Calculated Valuation: 2 years, $8M ($4M per year)

After a promising rookie campaign, Dobbins missed all of 2021, and half of 2022. His metrics through 8 games last season however showed promise, but the lack of availability has to be a major suppressant to any type of contract negotiation currently in the works. He’s a bridge contract candidate at best.

Prediction: 2023 free agency showed us one thing: The days of bidding wars for running backs are over. Baltimore lets this ride to free agency and tries to keep him around at about the calculated value, possibly even less.

A.J. Dillon (Packers, 25)

Contract Status: 1 year, $1.3M, 2024 UFA
Calculated Valuation: 2 years, $8M ($4M per year)

The Packers probably expected Dillon to have the keys to the running back room by now, but a $5M pay cut for Aaron Jones this March keeps him atop the depth chart for another season. He’s been active for every game over the past two seasons, but the yards per attempt is hovering around the 4 mark during that span, and the pass catching production took a serious step backward in 2022. It’s very possible that the Packers’ offense will be geared more towards the run game with Jordan Love at the helm, so it could be a perfect timing scenario for Dillon’s expiring.

Prediction: Green Bay hasn’t yet drafted a replacement for Dillon, so there’s reason to believe they are willing to give this a serious thought in the coming months. Playing out 2023 is probably best for both sides here.

D’Andre Swift (Eagles, 24)

Contract Status: 1 year, $1.7M, 2024 UFA
Calculated Valuation: 4 years, $26M ($6.5M per year)

Swift was acquired from Detroit at the end of April for a 2025 4th round pick and a 7th round pick swap. He’s never been able to manage a full workload, but won’t be asked to do so in Philadelphia - who have routinely used a 3-4 back rotation for years now. There’s a world where Swift slots into Miles Sanders’ role however, a situation that just scored him a 4 year, $25.4M contract on the open market.

Prediction: The Eagles have no reason to jump the gun here. Swift plays out his rookie contract and is a fringe franchise tag candidate next February, with free agency the most likely outcome here.

POTENTIAL 2024 ADDITIONS

Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots, 25)

Stevenson made himself known early on last season and should have a full boat of duties in 2023 before he becomes extension eligible. The Patriots might offer him an early extension - but it’s highly unlikely that it will represent a top of the market bottom line - even if he deserves it.

Nick Chubb (Browns, 27)

He’s almost 28, and the contract holds a non-guaranteed $12M in 2024, but he’s also still highly productive and and integral piece to this Browns’ puzzle. Most running backs aren’t even sniffing a second contract in this league - but Chubb may be trending toward a third.

Javonte Williams (Broncos, 23)

It’s not inconceivable that Williams fully recovers from a torn ACL, LCL, & PCL and regains full control of the Broncos’ running game. Age is in his favor, even if nothing else appears to be right now.

Christian McCaffrey (49ers, 27)

McCaffrey’s in a truly great situation right now from every angle: Contract, Team Fit, Rostered QB Money. His holds $12M this year, $12M next year, and $12.2M for 2025, but the early guarantees have dissipated. He just turned 27 years old, so there’s at least some reason to start thinking about the exit game here, but that simply might be a rip it up and start it over type scenario after the upcoming season.

Related:
Top Average Paid Running Backs
Largest Running Back Guarantees
2024 Running Back Free Agents

Keegan Bradley wins the Travelers Championship. This is Bradley's second win of the season. He earns $3.6 million for the 2023 season; his on-course earnings are now at $8.58 million and his career total is $40.1 million.

Travelers Championship Top 5 Payouts

1. Keegan Bradley: $3,600,000

T2. Brian Harman, Zac Blair: $1,780,000

T4. Scottie Scheffler, Chez Reavie, Patrick Cantlay: $841,667

Full Results

2023 Earnings Leaders Update

1. Scottie Scheffler: $18,548,392

2. Jon Rahm: $15,210,984

3. Wyndham Clark: $10,226,979

4. Viktor Hovland: $9,819,096

5. Rory McIlroy: $9,644,758

Full List

The 2023 NBA Draft, and the leadup to it, saw some big swings as far as 2023 cap space and spending power projections go. With one set of moves, the Oklahoma City Thunder cut their cap space in half, and the Sacramento Kings created jumped into the free agency fray. The Washington Wizards kicked off a rebuild, while the Boston Celtics and Phoenix Suns took on some high-salary players.

In addition, in the days ahead of the draft, the NBA released updated cap and tax projections for the 2023-24 season. The cap projection went up from $134 million to $136 million. The tax projection went from $162 million to $165 million. That’s a 10% raise for both.

That leaves the league with a pretty even landscape of spending power this offseason. Eight teams project to have cap space, 10 are projected to have the Non-Taxpayer MLE available, seven teams project to have the Taxpayer MLE, while five teams look like they’ll be up against or over the second tax apron and won’t have any signing exceptions available.

Cap Space Teams

1. Houston Rockets - $60.9 million

2. Utah Jazz - $47.2 million

3. San Antonio Spurs - $38.6 million

4. Sacramento Kings - $35.6 million

5. Indiana Pacers - $32.2 million

6. Detroit Pistons - $30.0 million

7. Orlando Magic - $23.9 million

8. Oklahoma City Thunder - $16.6 million

Eight teams project to have cap space this summer. Not only will these teams likely go the cap space route, but they’ll also have the $7.7 million Room Exception too. Under the new CBA, the Room Exception has more spending power than the Taxpayer MLE does. So, these eight teams are kind of in control of the free agent board.

The Rockets lead the way with over $60 million in cap space. For a while, it looked like a large chunk of that space was being allocated to chasing James Harden. Now, it seems like Houston will spread some of that money around, as they are reportedly interested in several veteran free agents. One thing to keep in mind: The Rockets have seven players on first-round rookie scale deals, plus they added two more at the 2023 Draft. And Kevin Porter Jr. and Jae’Sean Tate are signed as well. That means there’s potentially a lot of roster movement coming in Houston, if they spend big on free agents.

The Jazz projection is still a little up in the air. Jordan Clarkson seems likely to opt out, even if he eventually re-signs on a long-term deal. Talen Horton-Tucker is 50-50, while Rudy Gay will likely opt in. If Horton-Tucker opts out, this projection will jump up to $57 million. No matter what, Utah’s rebuild has plenty of flexibility, both in terms of the cap sheet and draft pick treasure chest.

The Spurs already won big, literally and figuratively, by drafting Victor Wembanyama. Now, it’s about San Antonio deciding when it’s time to add veteran talent to Wembanyama and a promising core of other young players. It may not be this summer, but that time is coming soon.

Sacramento swerved at the draft when they traded Richaun Holmes and their first-round pick and took no money back. That puts the Kings in a spot to be players in free agency. They could use another forward or a wing with size. This free agent class has a lot of intriguing options, and Sacramento could be in play for all of them, as they are the only playoff team with cap space.

Indiana had a nice draft night. They increased their cap space a bit, and added some future draft picks. The Pacers still need more size on their roster, so look for them to target forwards and centers via signings or trades. Something to keep an eye on: Indiana only has one or two roster spots to fill. That puts them in position to overpay a targeted player on a one- or two-year deal that they feel is a perfect fit.

The Pistons came away from the draft with an additional first-round pick, so they gave up a bit of spending power this summer. But $30 million is enough for Detroit to be in range for just about any available free agent. The question: Sign free agents or continue the process of eating salary for future assets?

Orlando has a young roster and not a lot of roster spots. With almost $24 million to spend, the Magic can be aggressive on targeting a specific player or two. If Orlando decides it’s time to move on from Jonathan Isaac, they can add almost $10 million to this projection, for nearly $34 million in spending power. But don’t look for fireworks. Orlando is focused on being patient and not rushing this rebuild.

The Thunder have already used a chunk of the cap space they’re going to create. Oklahoma City took on Davis Bertans’ and his $17 million deal from the Dallas Mavericks at the draft, in order to move up to draft Cason Wallace. That leaves the Thunder with about $16.6 million in flexibility, but they also don’t really have any roster spots open. That means that space is more likely to get used up in a trade of some sort than it is in a free agent signing.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Charlotte Hornets

2. Chicago Bulls

3. Cleveland Cavaliers

4. Dallas Mavericks

5. Memphis Grizzlies

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

7. New York Knicks

8. Portland Trail Blazers

9. Toronto Raptors

10. Washington Wizards

These nine teams project to have access to the beefed-up Non-Taxpayer MLE of $12.4 million. It’s an interesting mix of playoff teams and rebuilding teams.

The Hornets are rebuilding, and they have a couple of key free agent decisions to make with P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges, who are both pending restricted free agents. Charlotte is likely to take care of their business with them first, before turning to fill needs in free agency.

Chicago should have the Non-Taxpayer MLE, pending contract decisions with Nikola Vucevic, Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White. Given the Bulls have a need at point guard with Lonzo Ball unlikely to play this season, that’s a spot to look at using some or all of the MLE on.

Cleveland should have the MLE to spend, even if they re-sign Caris LeVert. The Cavs also look ready to make another leap forward, so this $12.4 million should put them in a place to add a win-now veteran to help fill out the rotation. Keep an eye on a big wing that can shoot.

The Mavericks could be in range to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE, even if Kyrie Irving signs a max deal at $47.6 million for next season. That’s what their draft day dealing opened up for them. Given they’ll only have a couple of roster spots to fill too, Dallas should be able to fit in an MLE signing.

Memphis is in a similar spot to Cleveland. They need to add a wing, a big and another point guard. Trading for Marcus Smart covers part of those needs, but the Grizzlies could still use more depth at the point (due to Ja Morant’s suspension) and up front (due to Brandon Clarke being out). This MLE will fill one of those needs, or potentially both if they split it between two players.

The Timberwolves should be in range of adding help via the MLE, pending what happens with Naz Reid. If he leaves town, Minnesota will have the full $12.4 million to spend. If Reid stays on a reasonable deal, the Wolves could still be in play to use some or all of the MLE to fill out their guard rotation.

The Knicks are in a bit of a weird spot, and that’s because of Josh Hart’s player option. New York and Hart agreed to push his option deadline back by five days. If Hart opts in, he’ll be on the books at just under $13 million. That would give the Knicks access to the full MLE, and they could then extend Hart’s deal to add years onto it. If Hart opts out, he’ll likely land a bigger deal and that will eat into New York’s ability to use the full MLE this summer.

Portland could use up most of their flexibility this summer, if they re-sign Jerami Grant, Matisse Thybulle and Drew Eubanks. If any of those players comes on a value deal, or any of them leave town, the Blazers will definitely have the full MLE to spend. And, of course, there’s always the option of a trade that sets the franchise down an entirely different path too. It’s fair to say the entire league is waiting to see what Portland chooses to do.

Toronto seems hellbent on avoiding rebuilding or going all-in. The Raptors should have the $12.4 Non-Taxpayer MLE to spend, pending what happens with Fred VanVleet and Jakob Poeltl. If one or both move to new teams, the MLE is a lock for Toronto. If they re-sign both to the type of contracts they are looking for, Toronto might be closer to having the Taxpayer MLE to spend. Everyone around the NBA is wondering exactly what the Raptors are up to.

The Wizards are on a new course towards rebuilding. They’ve already traded Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis, and Washington isn’t done trading either. Pending where they finish things up roster-wise after further trades, the Wizards may not have a lot of use for spending the MLE on a veteran. But they’ll have it available, should they choose to use it.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Atlanta Hawks

2. Boston Celtics

3. Brooklyn Nets

4. Denver Nuggets

5. Los Angeles Lakers

6. New Orleans Pelicans

7. Philadelphia 76ers

The Taxpayer MLE is no longer much of an advantage for the NBA’s more-expensive teams. It’s been knocked down to just $5 million in value, but the real kicker is that using the Taxpayer MLE hard caps a team at the second tax apron. That makes it hard to find the right amount of wiggle room to use this MLE, while staying under that hard cap.

Atlanta’s roster is a bit of a mess. They have a ton of long-term salary committed to several players, and other key players are up for extensions and new contracts soon. The Hawks will probably forgo using the MLE this summer, and will keep it in their back pocket to use later, if necessary.

The Celtics ability to use the Taxpayer MLE is linked to Grant Williams. If Williams leaves, Boston can put themselves in range to use the MLE. If Williams re-signs, then Boston is too tight to the second apron to use the MLE.

Brooklyn’s spending power this summer is dependent on what happens with Cam Johnson. The Nets are clear of the tax for now, but only by about $10 million. If they re-sign Johnson, or are forced to match an offer sheet at or above $20 million, Brooklyn will be over the tax line. They should still have enough room under the second apron to use the Taxpayer MLE, but it’ll be tight.

The Nuggets could have enough wiggle room to use the Taxpayer MLE and to stay under the hard cap at the second apron, but only if they lose Bruce Brown. If Brown re-signs on a team-friendly deal using his Non-Bird rights, then things probably get too tight for Denver to use the MLE and to stay under the hard cap.

The Lakers are in an interesting spot this summer. They could still be a cap space team, but all signs point to the Lakers staying over and re-signing several of their own free agents. Even fair-value deals will push Los Angeles up near, or over, the tax line. If they can work things to use the Non-Taxpayer MLE, while re-signing players, that would be a huge win. But this one will probably leave the Lakers with about $5 million extra to spend beyond re-signings.

New Orleans has enough clearance to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE without tripping into hard cap range at the first apron. But the Pelicans are likely to try and stay out of the tax entirely. That means they’ll limit themselves to somewhere between the Taxpayer MLE of $5 million and the Non-Taxpayer MLE of $12.4 million to spend this summer.

Philadelphia’s exception availability is almost entirely dependent on what happens with James Harden. If Harden re-signs for the max Philadelphia is likely limited to the Taxpayer MLE. If Harden takes a good chunk less than the max, and he did that last year, that should open up the Non-Taxpayer MLE for the Sixers.

Super Tax Teams (no signing exception)

1. Golden State Warriors

2. LA Clippers

3. Miami Heat

4. Milwaukee Bucks

5. Phoenix Suns

Since we did our last spending power projections after the trade deadline, the new CBA terms were released. In the new agreement, one of the penalties against the most-expensive teams is that they lose the ability to use the Taxpayer MLE. And that’s one of the penalties that triggers immediately, while several others don’t kick in until the 2024-25 season. That means these teams are limited to trades, re-signings, signings draft picks and signing minimum deals.

The Warriors are the poster boys of the new super tax penalties. They’ve already moved some long-term money by swapping Jordan Poole for Chris Paul. But that’s for down the line. This summer, Golden State is still well over the tax line and will be even more so, should they re-sign Draymond Green.

The Clippers are Enemy 1A for the new super tax penalties, just behind their neighbors to the north. LA has a pretty full roster, so they’ll focus on trades to being in any outside help.

Miami is already wildly expensive, by virtue of re-signing their own players. That’s not a criticism, as those deals have all been solid enough values. But now the Heat have to re-sign a couple of key free agents in Gabe Vincent and Max Strus. Retaining even one of them will push Miami up and over the super tax line.

The Bucks could end up dodging the super tax and opening up a little spending power, but that would be at the expense of Khris Middleton and/or Brook Lopez. Milwaukee would rather re-sign those two, and a few other key free agents, than have minimal ability to sign an outside free agent.

The summer of 2023 was intended as a “grace period” for the NBA’s most-expensive teams. The idea was for them to take a year to get their books in order before the big penalties started hitting in 2024. The Suns went the other way. They looked at this as their last chance to add big money, and they did so by trading for Bradley Beal. Phoenix is now limited to re-signing their own players, maybe another trade or two and then filling out with minimum contracts.

The 2023 NBA Draft is in the books. 58 players joined the NBA ranks (the Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers forfeited their second-round selections due to tampering with Lonzo Ball and P.J. Tucker, respectively), and a slew more have already agreed to two-way contracts and camp deals.

This draft was a bit lighter on trades than recent years. As various deals finalize, it looks as though we’ll have 10 to 12 total trades. Only two trades agreed to on draft day featured established NBA players. Most others involved draft pick movement, where 2023 picks swapped in exchange for a team adding a future draft pick down the line.

Instead of your typical “Winners and Losers” post-draft piece, we’re going to focus on the financial fallout from the draft from some of the draft’s big movers.

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas came into the offseason without a lot of flexibility, but with several needs to fill. Of course, the primary concern is to re-sign Kyrie Irving, but the Mavericks have other work to do too. The draft got them started.

Dallas swung a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder that saw them drop back just two picks, while shedding the $17 million salary of Davis Bertans. That shed of Bertans created a $17 million Traded Player Exception (TPE), and that came into play with the Mavs second draft-day trade.

After dropping back from the 10th pick, Dallas selected Dereck Lively II with the 12th pick, Lively seems like a perfect fit for the team’s frontcourt. He’s a defender, rebounder and rim runner. If he can set good enough screens, he’ll work nicely with Luka Doncic and Irving.

The Mavs weren’t done there. In their second deal, Dallas used their newly-created TPE to bring in Richaun Holmes from the Sacramento Kings, while also picking up the 24th pick. The Mavericks selected Olivier-Maxence Prosper. He seems like an immediate replacement for what Dallas lost when they traded Dorian Finney-Smith in the deal to acquire Irving. Holmes will fill a need alongside Lively in the frontcourt. Those two should give Dallas 48 minutes of solid center play.

As free agency opens, the Mavericks should be about $58.4 million under the first tax apron. That should give Dallas enough wiggle room to use the Taxpayer MLE of $5 million, while avoiding the second tax apron, assuming Irving re-signs on a max deal.

For only moving back two spots in the draft, Dallas did quite well. They shed a burdensome salary, got two centers and a forward, while creating some spending power. That’s a good night’s work.

Sacramento Kings

No team changed their summer spending outlook more than Sacramento did. With one move, the Kings created over $35 million in cap space for this offseason. That puts Sacramento in play to go a lot of different directions.

As referenced above, the Kings sent out Richaun Holmes and the 24th pick (Olivier-Maxence Prosper) to the Mavericks. As of this writing, it’s unclear what Sacramento got back from Dallas, but it seems likely that it will be a minor item (draft rights to a player or a protected second-round pick). The goal seems to have been to clear cap space for Sacramento.

What can they do with all this space? The options are aplenty.

One way to use some of this space could be to renegotiate-and-extend Domantas Sabonis’ contract. At his current $22 million, it doesn’t really make sense for Sabonis to sign a veteran extension, as he’d be leaving quite a bit of money on the table.

In a renegotiation-and-extension, the Kings could bump Sabonis’ salary up quite a bit for this coming season, while also adding on some new years moving forward. For a full explainer on this process, we wrote about the Indiana Pacers renegotiating-and-extending Myles Turner ahead of that being exactly what happened. Sacramento could take the same approach, coincidentally, with Turner’s former teammate Sabonis.

If the Kings prefer to hold off, and have a wink-wink agreement in place to take care of Sabonis in the summer of 2024, they can have the fourth-most cap space in the NBA this summer. That’s huge, as the three teams above them on the list (Houston, Utah and San Antonio) are still in various stages of rebuilding.

Could the Kings get in on an offer for Khris Middleton? Kyle Kuzma? Bring Harrison Barnes back for a bit less than last year, then still have around $17 million to spend? Sacramento could also use that space to facilitate a trade for a bigger-salary player. Again, the options are plentiful.

After years of wandering the NBA wilderness, the Kings had a great season. They’re core is in place long-term. Now it’s time to supplement that group and start a new streak, one of playoff appearances.

Oklahoma City Thunder

This one is fairly simple. Oklahoma City could have had over $30 million in cap space this summer. They targeted Cason Wallace as their guy, so they sacrificed about half of their cap space to eat Davis Bertans’ contract from Dallas and moved up for Wallace.

In order to bring in Bertans, the Thunder will have to dip under the cap first. Then they can bring in the veteran forward using straight cap space. That should still leave Oklahoma City with around $16 million or so in cap space.

Also: The Thunder rehab process will probably have Davis Bertans hitting about 45% from three and playing great at the trade deadline. At that point, they’ll probably flip him for a future first-round pick, because that’s what Sam Presti and the Thunder do.

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons ate into their cap space a little bit, and gave up to two future second-round picks, to get an additional first-round pick. Detroit comes away with Marcus Sasser, who should be a terrific fit for their backcourt.

The Pistons will still have about $30 million in cap space to work with this summer. That’s enough for Troy Weaver to make some moves. Whether that’s eating more contracts in exchange for assets, or signing veterans to push the rebuild forward is to be determined.

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers were linked to Jarace Walker about as soon as the lottery order was set. Indiana got their guy, while moving back just one pick and snagging a couple of extra second-round picks in the process. That alone would have been a major win for the Pacers.

But dropping back a pick, also gives Indiana a bit more in spending power this summer. The Pacers will hit the offseason with the fifth-most cap space at just over $32 million. Without any key free agents to re-sign, Kevin Pritchard and staff can get to work on adding to a roster that is better than you think.

Also: The Pacers only really have about one roster spot to fill. That means they can overpay to get a targeted free agent. Think about then the Philadelphia 76ers were pushing the process forward and overpaid for JJ Redick. That worked out tremendously well. Indiana doesn’t have to spread money around to fill a bunch of roster spots. They can do the same sort of thing and come away with a free agent they really like. As long as the deal is short enough, it’s almost impossible for it to turn sour.

Washington Wizards

We’ve already broken down the Bradley Beal trade, Kristaps Porzingis trade and Jordan Poole-Chris Paul swap in depth. But the Wizards weren’t done. And, to be honest, they’ve still got a ton of work to do, as the roster skews guard- and veteran-heavy for a rebuilding team. Sources said the Wizards are engaged with several teams in trade talks leading up to the opening of free agency.

As far as the draft went, Washington moved up a pick, at the expense of their newly-acquired second-round picks, to draft Bilal Coulibaly. There isn’t a major financial impact here, but the Wizards did take on slightly more money for Coulibaly with the seventh pick, as opposed to the eighth pick. But they got the highest-riser as far as draft stock goes, and Coulibaly now becomes a core piece moving forward.

In addition, Patrick Baldwin Jr. was added to the Poole-Paul trade. That’s a great flyer for Washington. He’s got a ton of talent and should see a lot more minutes with the Wizards than he was going to get with the Warriors.

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets were very busy in the days leading up to the draft, but in a measured, targeted way. Denver has a top-heavy salary sheet with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. on max deals. Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are both on healthy mid-range contracts. None of that is negative, as that’s the core of a title team.

However, it does mean Denver needs to be smart about filling out their roster. They’ve already got Christian Braun on a rookie scale deal, and they’re excited about Peyton Watson’s potential as their other 2022 first-round draftee.

The Nuggets doubled down (tripled down?) by moving future picks to secure three selections in the late-first and early-second round in the 2023 draft. Julian Strawther will be a rotation player eventually on his first-round rookie scale deal. In the second round, Denver snagged Jalen Pickett and Hunter Tyson. Presumably both will sign under the new Second Round Pick Exception, which will give Denver team-control for three to four seasons at right around the minimum for both players.

Even if only one of these players pans out, that’s a rotation contributor on a team-friendly deal. That’s key for a team that will be dancing around the super tax line for the next few years.

The Washington Wizards are continuing to wheel and deal. The new front office swung an early trade by sending Bradley Beal to the Suns for Chris Paul. The Wizards followed that up by sending Kristaps Porzingis to the Boston Celtics in a three-team trade that also featured the Memphis Grizzlies.

But the Wizards are far from done. Chris Paul’s stay in the capital won’t last very long. In fact, it won’t even really happen, as Washington is sending Chris Paul to the Golden State Warriors in exchange for Jordan Poole. Here are the parameters of the deal:

Wizards acquire

Jordan Poole, Ryan Rollins, top-20 protected 2030 first-round pick, 2027 second-round pick

Warriors acquire

Chris Paul

The Mechanics

The trade that will send Chris Paul, however briefly, to Washington, must take place before June 30 to be cap legal. When the new restrictions on salary-matching in trades for super tax teams kick in come July 1 with the new CBA, the Wizards and Suns wouldn’t be able to work a deal. At least not as easily as they have.

This trade, in the exact opposite way, must wait until after July 1 (really until noon Eastern on July 6 when the moratorium ends) to be legal. The reason for that is that Jordan Poole’s extension doesn’t kick in until July 1. Until that point, he’d be subject the poison pill. That means his deal wouldn’t be large enough, even with the inclusion of Rollins, to match salary for Paul.

That means Chris Paul will be a member of the Wizards for about two weeks or so, while probably never leaving the west coast the entire time.

The Wizards

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $29,675,221
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $30,800,000
Difference: -$1,124,779

Washington is continuing to reshape their roster. In effect, they split Bradley Beal’s contract in half by acquiring Jordan Poole. And they picked up a couple of picks in the process. That’s not bad work, even if it does eat into some of the incredible cap flexibility the Wizards had achieved by trading Beal and Kristaps Porzingis.

Despite coming off a down year, Poole is a good player. He lost some of his efficiency last season with the Warriors, as he seemingly struggled to readapt to being a bench player. Poole seems like the kind of player who needs to be right in it, vs heating up quickly off the bench.

With Washington, Poole projects to be their primary offensive option. At this point, we have no real idea what the Wizards roster will look like around Poole, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll have anyone better than he is offensively. That’ll mean a lot of shots and points, and a good number of assists, but his shooting percentages and overall efficiency may suffer.

Rollins is being painted as a throw-in to this deal, but he has talent. His rookie season was mostly a wash due to a foot injury, but Rollins flashed at times. In nine games in the G League, he showed the same knack for shooting and scoring that he showed in his two seasons at Toledo. He’ll probably get a chance to play on this rebuilding Washington team.

The Wizards are also getting a first-round pick from the Warriors that will convey long after Golden State’s golden era will have wrapped up. It’s top-20 protected, so the upside is fairly limited, but it’s another asset in a growing pile for the Wizards.

As for the cap, we said Washington basically split Beal’s salary in half by acquiring Poole. That takes some flexibility away, compared to taking back no long-term money. Poole is owed $125 million over the next four seasons, with salaries ranging from $27.9 million for next season to $34.5 million in his final season. But that’s not the end of the world.

When we wrote up the Porzingis’ trade, we made note that the Wizards could create up to $100 million in cap space next summer. That’s now down to about $70 million or so. Spending $100 million in a single summer, for a rebuilding team, was unlikely. So, Washington takes a chance that Poole will rediscover his game as a primary guy, in exchange for some likely unspendable cap space. And, who knows? Maybe Poole will get traded at some point too.

The Warriors

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $30,800,000
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $29,675,221
Difference: $1,124,779

Chris Paul was once Enemy #1 of Warriors fans. Now, Dubs fans will be hoping he can help them extend their title contention window by at least one more year.

On the court, this trade gives Golden State the best backup guard to Stephen Curry that they’ve ever had. And Curry and Paul will share the floor plenty too. Paul is slowing down and not the dominant, game-controlling force he once was. But he’s still plenty good. In fact, Paul is overqualified for the role Golden State is going to put him in.

And that’s a good thing.

Paul’s issue at this point is his workload. He can’t hold up playing 30-plus minutes per game over a full season. With the Warriors, Paul will likely be down around 20 minutes per game, and he’ll be able to sit when he needs to. And if Curry suffers another untimely injury, Paul can step up and more than capably fill in.

But as great as The Point God is, this trade was heavily influenced by the new CBA. The Warriors were seen as the primary reason (with the LA Clippers coming in second) for the new super tax restrictions in the incoming CBA. Golden State had a lot of long-term money on their books after extending both Poole and Andrew Wiggins last summer. And they’re looking to re-sign Draymond Green this summer, after he just opted out of his deal too. Add it up, and the NBA’s most expensive team was going to remain at that level for the foreseeable future. And that meant little wiggle room for building out the roster.

That meant something had to break and someone had to go. That someone ended up being Jordan Poole. If Paul is out of the picture after one season (his $30 million contract is fully non-guaranteed for 2024-25), the Warriors will have cut $97 million in guaranteed salary off their books. That will help create a little flexibility moving forward, as Golden State tries to keep that title window pried open for the next few years.

One last benefit for the Warriors: they kept Chris Paul from joining division and conference rivals in Los Angeles with the Lakers and Clippers. Those two teams were considered the front-runners to get Paul, either via trade or in free agency. Now, both teams are left to figure out other options at the lead guard spot.

(UPDATED version of a previous article after the trade was adjusted)

The NBA offseason is off and running! The Washington Wizards got things started by agreeing to trade Bradley Beal to the Phoenix Suns, and now they’re continuing their teardown. Washington has agreed to the parameters of a three-team trade with the Boston Celtics and the Memphis Grizzlies. Here are the basics:

Celtics Acquire
Kristaps Porzingis, #25 pick in 2023 Draft, future Golden State Warriors first-round pick

Grizzlies Acquire
Marcus Smart

Wizards Acquire
Danilo Gallinari, Tyus Jones, Mike Muscala, #35 pick in 2023 Draft

(Note: If deal terms change significantly, we’ll update the article accordingly.)

The Mechanics

Much like the trade of Bradley Beal to Phoenix, this is a deal that needs to happen in the current league year. Because both Boston is close to the super tax line, it was far easier to make this trade happen now.

For the Wizards, their part is again fairly easy. They’re trading out the $36 million owed to Kristaps Porzingis (he’ll have to opt in for next season to make this deal possible) and taking back about $24.3 million. Washington will create a Traded Player Exception (TPE) of about $11.7 million in this deal.

For Boston, they need to get this deal done in this league year. Doing so allows them to use the salary-matching rules that allow them to bring in 125% of the outgoing salary. That’s Marcus Smart, Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala in this case. Acquiring the 25th pick in the 2023 Draft comes with $0 as far as salary-matching goes, but it does push Boston a bit closer to super tax.

The Grizzlies also take on some money here by swapping Tyus Jones for Marcus Smart, but they would have been fine to complete this deal now or later. The main push for Memphis to get this deal now is clarity around the draft.

The Celtics

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $38,639,880
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $29,219,996
Difference: $9,419,884

Boston was always going to do something this offseason. After falling short in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Celtics were searching for that move to put them over the top. All signs pointed to Malcolm Brogdon being traded, and he was until the LA Clippers backed out of the deal. Instead, the longest-tenured Celtic, and the team’s heart and soul, were sent out.

Kristaps Porzingis is an excellent fit for the Celtics on both ends of the floor. He’s coming off the best season of his eight-year career. Porzingis also turns 28 years old this summer, and is entering what should be the prime years of his career.

On offense, Porzingis gives Boston another stretch big. In many ways, think of him as the Celtics replacement for Grant Williams, who played a key role off the Boston bench for the last few years. Porzingis won’t come off the bench, but he’ll have a somewhat similar, if greatly expanded, role in Boston’s offense.

Porzingis is a 36% shooter from three for his career. This past season, he knocked down 38.5% of his three-pointers on 356 attempts. Not only is Porzingis a good shooter, and a volume one, but he has some of the deepest range in the NBA.

Because Porzingis was rarely stationed as a pure spot-up guy, the vast majority of his three-point attempts came from above the break. On those looks, he knocked down 38.1%. On shots from 25 to 29 feet (deeper threes), Porzingis retained his effectiveness by hitting 38.3% of his triples. That sort of deep range will open up the floor for the Celtics in ways they haven’t seen yet. That will create driving lanes for Boston’s host of off-the-dribble playmakers and scorers.

That shooting, combined with Porzingis’ ability to take players down into the post, and to finish as roll man, should make him the sort of lethal third scorer the Celtics haven’t had over the last few years. He’s not the passer that Boston’s other bigs are, but there are some signs that he can do more as a facilitator than he’s shown to this point.

On defense, Porzingis will likely function in the role where Robert Williams has had a lot of success for the Celtics: roaming as a weakside helper. Al Horford will likely continue to guard the bigger bigs (think Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic, etc.), while Porzingis will be able to float and help. Porzingis is coming off a pretty good individual defensive season. His defensive impact should get even better while surrounded by the best defenders he’s ever played with.

On the downside, Porzingis was relatively healthy last season, as he appeared in 65 games. That’s the most games he’s played over the last six seasons, which includes an entirely missed season after a torn ACL. Repeating that level of availability will be a big part of determining the success level of this trade for the Celtics. If he misses half the season, that will lessen his overall impact.

Porzingis will also see his usage rate, which generally hovers in the high-20% range, drop by a good amount. Both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown key the Celtics offense, and that isn’t going to change. But what Porzingis trades out in volume could be made up for in efficiency, as he’ll be playing with the most talented group he’s been with yet. That should mean a healthy diet of good looks on offense.

Marcus Smart is a major loss for the Celtics. There’s no way to spin it other than he was the team’s heart and soul. Whenever Boston absolutely needed a play, Smart was the guy who made it. But after nine years, the Celtics decided it was time to shake things up.

Smart’s defense slipped noticeably last season, after winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2022. He was still good against bigger players, but the quicker perimeter players gave him trouble. Smart is also injury-prone and an inconsistent shooter.

But Smart was still a good defender, the Celtics best playmaker and the guy who regularly got the offense started. Beyond all that, he was a loved and trusted fan favorite, a team leader and a Celtic through and through. Those things are harder to quantify than the statistical stuff, but that doesn’t make them any less real.

There are already reports that this trade will ultimately cost Boston Grant Williams. As a pending restricted free agent, the Celtics could choose to work a sign-and-trade with Williams, to return something of value. Or they may just choose to make things easy and let Williams go free and clear. His shooting-defense combination will be missed, as will Williams’ ability to keep the locker room loose.

In the backcourt, the Celtics still have decisions to make with Malcolm Brogdon and Payton Pritchard. Brogdon now knows he was being traded, so that’s something Brad Stevens will have to handle. Brogdon’s injury history was also apparently a factor in the LA Clippers pulling out of the deal, which is scary for Boston. Brogdon has $45 million owed to him over the next two seasons, and that’s a lot if his elbow injury suffered in the Eastern Conference Finals is worse than originally thought.

As for Pritchard, there’s a chance the Celtics keep him around now. The path to playing time is a little clearer with Smart out of the picture. Pritchard should be able to get regular minutes off the bench., even if big minutes still won’t be there. His shooting has always been a valuable skill, and Pritchard’s playmaking is improving all the time. This remains a situation to keep an eye on.

In a real sense, Boston may be trading Marcus Smart and Grant Williams for Kristaps Porzingis and Payton Pritchard. That’s probably a win for the Celtics, pending what ultimately happens with Porzingis and Pritchard contractually.

Losing Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala are sort of “shrug” impacts for Boston. Gallinari unfortunately never got suit up for the Celtics. Muscala was fine, but didn’t play enough after being acquired at the trade deadline for anyone to get worked up about his inclusion in the deal.

Adding two first-round picks for the Celtics is a key part of this trade, considering they gave up Smart in this deal. As an already-expensive team, and only getting more so, Boston had to put themselves in position to add cheaper, team-controlled talent through the draft. The 25th pick in this year’s draft is a start. The future Golden State Warriors first-round pick has some protections, but should deliver as soon as next season. If nothing else, it’s additional capital to toss in a deal down the line.

There are already rumors that Boston will look to extend Porzingis. He likely won’t get near the $36 million he’s set to make this season, but Porzingis could command a first-year salary in an extension of $30 million. And Pritchard is extension-eligible. It remains unlikely Boston will extend him, but it’s more in play now than it would have been with Smart on the roster. With super max extensions looming for Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum, the Celtics cap sheet will remain pretty fat with guaranteed salary.

Finally, to wrap things up for Boston, they could be in position to use the $5 million Taxpayer MLE now. If Grant Williams is out of the picture, Boston should have enough room under the second apron to sign a player via the Taxpayer MLE. That player will likely replace whatever the Celtics had hoped to get from Gallinari, after he lost last season due to a torn ACL.

The Grizzlies

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $18,917,046
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $16,623,680
Difference: $2,293,366

Marcus Smart might be the most “grit ‘n’ grind” player to never have been a part of that Memphis Grizzlies culture. Now, he will be.

Smart is a perfect fit for the Grizzlies as both a Ja Morant replacement (temporarily) and a Dillon Brooks replacement (long-term). Even though his perimeter defense slipped, he’s still a top-tier defender. Smart is also an incredibly switchable player. Put him with Jaren Jackson Jr. and your options at the other three positions increase a lot, because they’ll cover up so much on defense for everyone else.

On offense, Smart will take over at the Grizzlies starting point guard to open next season. When Morant is back from his suspension, Smart will either transition into a bench role, or Memphis can run a three-guard group with him, Morant and Desmond Bane in the starting lineup. Either way, that’s a terrific three-guard rotation.

Tyus Jones was terrific for the Grizzlies as a backup and spot-starter. Smart will be a different look, but he’s a more than adequate replacement. And Memphis is already used to inconsistent shooting from their time with Dillon Brooks, so that shouldn’t be all that much of an adjustment. Finding another guard to play behind Smart is important, because his health history shows that he’ll miss some time himself each season.

On the cap sheet, Smart is signed for just shy of $60 million over the next three seasons. That’s perfectly fair value, and it removes some of the uncertainty for Memphis of what would happen with Jones after this season. The Grizzlies have a core of guys locked in for the next few years, and that’s huge as they continue their ascent in the Western Conference.

As for the draft picks, it was time for Memphis to part with some of them. The Grizzlies have drafted and developed as well as anyone over the last several years. But that’s resulted in a roster that is pretty stuffed, and you can’t pay everyone. Parting with a couple of picks to upgrade the rotation is a solid investment for Memphis.

The Wizards

Incoming 2023-24 Salary: $24,302,950
Outgoing 2023-24 Salary: $36,016,200
Difference: -$11,713,250

Much like the Bradley Beal trade, this more or less amounts to a salary-dump for Washington. They are taking back far less money than they send out. Tyus Jones, Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala are all on expiring contracts, so their goal of long-term cap flexibility was achieved for the Wizards.

Jones is a good player, but Washington has a glut of point guards now. They’ve got Jones, Monte Morris, Delon Wright and the recently-acquired Chris Paul. That’ll sort itself out through further transactions, but it’s fair to say no one should plan for Jones, or any of the others, to be a long-term Wizard.

The same is true of Gallinari and Muscala. Both could be parts of the rotation and eat up some regular season minutes. Or either, or both, could be moved in another deal. Again, neither is very likely to be in DC beyond this upcoming season.

This trade is maybe a touch worse for Washington than the original version with the LA Clippers, because they missed out on getting a first-round pick. But the Wizards only moved back five spots, and they got a better player in Jones. So, it’s probably closer to neutral than truly worse.

Now, Washington can continue with their teardown. The Wizards haven’t taken on any guaranteed money beyond this current season. There’s a chance that Washington could have as little as $33 million on the books for the 24-25 season. That would translate into somewhere around $100 million in potential cap space.

Cap space alone has never won anything. But having that sort of flexibility is what the new Wizards front office wanted. With these two trades of Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis, they achieved it.

The Clippers

LA reportedly backed out of the original deal due to concerns about Malcolm Brogdon’s injury history. That’s fair, given Brogdon is dealing with a torn ligament in the elbow of his shooting arm. And his long-term history isn’t much cleaner.

Now, LA brings Marcus Morris and Amir Coffey back into the fold, while keeping the 30th pick in this year’s draft. But they still don’t have a real answer at point guard, beyond re-signing Russell Westbrook for the veteran minimum.

However, LA and Washington’s part of the deal was fine, it was the Brogdon portion that collapsed. That means the Clippers and Wizards could re-engage on talks, possibly centered around Chris Paul. That would need to get done in the next week, before the league year changes over, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

With the 2023 NBA Draft just a few hours away, we’ll dive into the top earning NBA player from each first round draft slot in league history (for a minute).

RELATED: Top Earning NBA Players by Draft Pick

#1 Overall

LeBron James, $431,859,107, 2003

Drafted in 2003 LeBron has been one of the (very) rare examples of living up to the #1 hype and then some. He'll bag another $46.9M this upcoming season, with a $50.6M player option awaiting next summer, putting him in the running to surpass $500M on the court.

#2 Overall

Kevin Durant, $350,297,591, 2007

The second pick behind Greg Oden in 2007, Durant has now signed 7 contracts in the NBA. His current deal in Phoenix holds another $150M to be earning, putting him just under $500M in total.

#3 Overall

James Harden, $301,660,574, 2009

Harden went to OKC behind Blake Griffin & Hasheem Thabeet in 2009 and is currently an unrestricted free agent at age 33. There's a world where he locks in another $210M with another max contract this summer.

#4 Overall

Chris Paul, $359,109,419, 2005

The three players drafted ahead of Chris Paul in 2005 (Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams, Deron Williams) combined to earn $398M in their careers. Paul is now guaranteed $25M in 2023-24, though his contract status is very much up in the air with the recent trade to Washington.

#5 Overall

Kevin Love, $265,818,402, 2008

Love just finished his 4th contract in the league, spanning 15 seasons with 3 organizations. He was selected 5th in 2008 behind Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo, & Russell Westbrook.

#6 Overall

Damian Lillard, $233,708,358, 2012

Dame has earned over $233M in just 11 NBA seasons (drafted in 2012), averaging over $21M per year thus far. He's guaranteed another $216.2M through 2026-27 - no matter where he's playing from here out.

#7 Overall

Stephen Curry, $302,806,362, 2009

Steph was selected 4 picks behind James Harden in 2009, but has now (barely) surpassed him in career earnings (despite an extremely team friendly rookie extension back in 2013 (4 years, $44M). Curry's current deal will carry him over the $470M earned mark after 2025-26.

#8 Overall

Rudy Gay, $174,781,320, 2006

It's been a tough go from the #8 spot historically speaking, but so was the entire 2006 draft to be perfectly fair. Gay's $174M is the 4th most earned out of that draft class, behind only Kyle Lowry (#24, $245M), LaMarcus Aldridge (#2 overall, $213M), & Paul Millsap (#47 overall, $192M).

#9 Overall

Gordon Hayward, $236,884,749, 2010

Hayward is entering a contract year in Charlotte, set to finish out his 4th NBA deal in 2023-24. He'll increase his career earnings north of $268M, and should soar past $300M with a new deal next summer.

#10 Overall

Paul George, $259,692,078, 2010

The 8x All Star, 6x All-NBA #10 pick in the 2010 draft was selected immediately after Gordon Hayward, and holds future salaries of $45.6M & a $48.7M player option on his current contract.

#11 Overall

Klay Thompson, $222,944,784, 2011

Thompson enters a contract year in 2023-24, set to earn a fully guaranteed $43.2M in Golden Sate, raising his career earnings north of $266M.

#12 Overall

Steven Adams, $145,144,832, 2013

Adams was the 4th center drafted in 2013 (Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Nerlens Noel), but he's nearly out-earned them all combinen to date. He holds another $25.2M fully guaranteed through the 2024-25 season.

#13 Overall

Devin Booker, $130,516,653, 2015

Don't be deceived by the $130M next to Booker's name right now. There's another $260M fully guaranteed coming down the pipeline, putting him inline to hold this top spot at #13 overall for years to come.

#14 Overall

Marcus Morris Sr., $89,249,640, 2011

Enjoy seeing Marcus Morris here for a minute, because the $104M fully guaranteed (and plenty more to come) on Bam Adebayo's deal will takeover the top spot this time next year.

#15 Overall

Kawhi Leonard, $230,926,127, 2011

It's been 4 seasons since Leonard helped the Raptors snag an unlikely title, and he's earned over $146M since then. His current deal in LA holds a $45.6M salary for the upcoming season, and a $48.7M player option thereafter, putting him on pace for $325M earned on the court.

#16 Overall

Nikola Vucevic, $154,338,639, 2011

Vucevic just completed his 3rd NBA contract, pulling his earnings north of $150M on the court. The 32 year old will be seeking another multi-year guarantee on the open market this summer.

#17 Overall

Jrue Holiday, $219,128,885, 2009

As it currently stands, Jrue Holiday is set to earn $291M through the 2024-25 season. He just posted near career numbers at 32 years old, making it perfectly plausible to believe he can be a $300M player when it's all said and done.

#18 Overall

Eric Bledsoe, $128,052,507, 2010

A solid 12 year career was dampened by a buyout/stretch of his final contract by Portland, but he's a $130M+ player no matter what.

#19 Overall

Tobias Harris, $209,233,355, 2011

There's been plenty said about the amount of money Tobias Harris has been earning over the past 4 seasons, but he'll be a $250M player at 31 years old. There's plenty of room for more in this career.

#20 Overall

Evan Fournier, $126,527,226, 2012

Fournier is (likely) finishing out his 3rd contract in 2023-24, with $18.8M still to be earned as a role player for the Knicks. The 30-year-old can probably latch on as a depth piece for a few more seasons, carrying him north of $150M when it's all said and done.

#21 Overall

Rajon Rondo, $115,777,250, 2006

Rondo's 16 year career included 9 contracts, culminating with a 5 year, $55M rookie scale extension from the Celtics back in 2009.

#22 Overall

Courtney Lee, $74,196,509, 2008

The second-lowest earning draft pick in the first round, Lee sits atop the #22 list despite a max salary of just $11.9M in his 12 year career. Jarrett Allen is coming for this spot quickly.

#23 Overall

Tayshaun Prince, $80,448,048, 2002

Prince only eclipsed the $10M+ mark in annual cash earned twice in his 14 seasons, but he might hold this spot for a few more seasons regardless.

#24 Overall

Kyle Lowry, $245,366,160, 2006

Easily the top earning player picked outside of the Top 10, Lowry is set to finish out his 6th NBA contract in 2023-24. He'll tack on another $29.6M (fully guaranteed), bringing his career total north of $275M.

#25 Overall

Nicolas Batum, $187,412,357, 2008

Batum was bought out of a contract 3 years ago, and has since locked in almost $32M, a remarkable turnaround. He'll wind up a $200M+ earning player when it's said and done.

#26 Overall

George Hill, $112,353,436, 2008

Hill completed his 5th NBA contract this season, but has only eclipsed the $10M mark twice in 15 seasons.

#27 Overall

Rudy Gobert, $176,207,582, 2013

Gobert may never do historic things on the court, but amassing $300M out of the #27 draft slot puts him in extremely rare air. He's guaranteed $131.4M through 2025-26, when he'll be 33 years old.

#28 Overall

Tony Parker, $165,843,436, 2001

The tail end of Parker's career benefited from the boost in NBA salaries that has taken things to unforeseeable levels of late. It'll take another decent contract for Jordan Poole to have Parker supplanted out of this spot soon.

#29 Overall

Cory Joseph, $71,183,160, 2011

The #29 pick holds the lowest earning player on this list, but Derrick White & Dejounte Murray are coming for this spot soon (barely).

#30 Overall

Jimmy Butler, $218,065,231, 2011

By the time the 2025-26 season is completed, the #30 overall pick will have one of the top earning players in the history of the game attached to it. Butler has salaries of $45.1M, $48.8M, & $52.4M ahead of him still, locking in over $364M for his career.

RELATED: Top Earning NBA Players by Draft Pick

NBA Twitter is an…interesting place. Yeah, let’s say interesting. That works. Once and while, amid all the incessant GOAT talk, blatant player stanning and outright name-calling, a really good point emerges from the muck. In the afternoon of Monday, June 19, one of those good points found its way to the surface.

Sean Highkin of The Rose Garden Report (great independent coverage of the Portland Trail Blazers) noted that Trail Blazers and New Orleans Pelicans linked up on a high-profile trade in recent years when C.J. McCollum was trades to the Pelicans. This came up amidst the rumors that New Orleans is attempting to trade up to get the third overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft that Portland currently owns.

Matt Moore of Action Network noted in a quote tweet of Sean’s original tweet that pre-existing relationships between front office decision makers and teams matters more than most realize. Here’s the interaction from Sean and Matt:

Pre-existing relationships matter a lot more than is talked about. https://t.co/OZ2dK6Zo14

— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) June 19, 2023

We’ve noted here on Spotrac before that some teams are more regular trade partners than others. But the interaction between Sean and Matt got us wondering: Just how often do certain general managers trade together?

We pulled the list of all of the current primary front office decision makers and examined how often they’ve traded with each other. The results were pretty interesting, so we’re sharing them here.

A few notes on the data:

• From this point forward, we’ll refer to the primary front office decision maker as the GM. NBA titles range from the traditional GM title to Vice President to President, and probably eventually Supreme Overlord of Basketball Ops. For simplicity’s sake, we’re going with GM from here on out.

• We compared GMs in their current job only. For example, Danny Ainge was the GM of the Boston Celtics from May of 2003 to June of 2021. But in this sample, we’re only looking at Ainge’s tenure running the Utah Jazz front office starting in December of 2021.

• We only looked at current GMs who have made trades together while in their current roles. For example, Danny Ainge and Pat Riley hooked up for a handful of deals while running the Celtics and Miami Heat, respectively. However, the two have yet to make a deal during the time Ainge has run the Jazz front office.

• This data set includes a lot of three-team trades, several four-team trades and even a five-time trade. In that situation, we gave credit for each of the teams as having traded with each other, even if they didn’t directly send something to one of the other teams in a multi-team deal. The reason is that the trade likely falls apart without the participation of all parties involved.

• The Golden State Warriors and Washington Wizards are both working with new front office leaders. The Warriors have no trades in the set, but we went ahead and connected the Wizards with the Phoenix Suns, because of the pending Bradley Beal-Chris Paul trade.

• We only went back as far as 2013, as we figured a 10-year sample was enough for these purposes.

• All the data is courtesy of the amazing executive records on Basketball Reference. For example, here’s Sam Presti of the Seattle SuperSonics and Oklahoma City Thunder’s long and extensive transaction record. (If you think that just an excuse to include the Seattle SuperSonics, you would be correct!)

With all those notes called out, here is our GM list and the month and year they started in their current position:

• Landry Fields – Atlanta Hawks – December, 2022

• Brad Stevens – Boston Celtics – June, 2021

• Sean Marks – Brooklyn Nets – February, 2016

• Mitch Kupchak – Charlotte Hornets – April, 2018

• Arturas Karnisovas – Chicago Bulls – April, 2020

• Koby Altman – Cleveland Cavaliers – June, 2017

• Nico Harrison – Dallas Mavericks – June, 2021

• Calvin Booth – Denver Nuggets – May, 2022

• Troy Weaver – Detroit Pistons – June, 2020

• Mike Dunleavy Jr. – Golden State Warriors – June, 2023

• Rafael Stone – Houston Rockets – October, 2020

• Kevin Pritchard – Indiana Pacers – May, 2017

• Lawrence Frank – LA Clippers – August, 2017

• Rob Pelinka – Los Angeles Lakers – April, 2019

• Zach Kleiman – Memphis Grizzlies – April, 2019

• Pat Riley – Miami Heat – September, 1995

• Jon Horst – Milwaukee Bucks – June, 2017

• Tim Connelly – Minnesota Timberwolves – May, 2022

• David Griffin – New Orleans Pelicans – April, 2019

• Leon Rose – New York Knicks – March, 2020

• Sam Presti – Oklahoma City Thunder – June, 2007

• Jeff Weltman – Orlando Magic – May, 2017

• Daryl Morey – Philadelphia 76ers – November, 2020

• James Jones – Phoenix Suns – October, 2018

• Joe Cronin – Portland Trail Blazers – December, 2021

• Monte McNair – Sacramento Kings – October, 2020

• Brian Wright – San Antonio Spurs – July, 2019

• Masai Ujiri – Toronto Raptors – May, 2013

• Danny Ainge – Utah Jazz – December, 2021

• Michael Winger – Washington Wizards – May, 2023

Most Common Trade Partners

Of our 30 GM set (really 29 because Mike Dunleavy Jr. hasn’t swung his first deal yet), there were 12 teams that have hooked up with another team (under their current GM) for at least three trades. The GMs and teams that have been trade partners the most are:

• Sean Marks (Nets) and Kevin Pritchard (Pacers) – 4 times

• Kevin Pritchard (Pacers) and Jon Horst (Bucks) – 4 times

• Leon Rose (Knicks) and Sam Presti (Thunder) – 4 times

• Brad Stevens (Celtics) and Brian Wright (Spurs) – 3 times

• Mitch Kupchak (Hornets) and Leon Rose (Knicks) – 3 times

• Troy Weaver (Pistons) and Leon Rose (Knicks) – 3 times

• Kevin Pritchard (Pacers) and James Jones (Suns) – 3 times

• Rob Pelinka (Lakers) and Jeff Weltman (Magic) – 3 times

Some commonalities that group shares are length of time in role. Marks, Pritchard, Horst, Presti and Weltman have all been in their role since at least 2017. That helps with building relationships across the league with a lot of the other GMs. Kupchak, and Jones have held their spots since 2018. Only Rose, Stevens, Wright, Weaver and Pelinka have been running their front offices for less than five years, but they’ve all been around the NBA in other capacities for years.

You probably noticed that Pritchard and Rose showed up three different times. They clearly like doing business with the same partners. As a matter of fact, of Pritchard’s 24 trades, nearly half have been done with the combination of the Nets, Bucks and Suns. In Rose’s three-plus years leading the Knicks, he’s done 17 trades and 10 of them have been with the combination of the Thunder, Hornets and Pistons.

Probably not surprisingly due to tenure in their role, the GMs with the most deals made within their current peer group are:

• Sam Presti – 27 total trades with 18 different teams

• Sean Marks – 25 total trades with 15 different teams

• Kevin Pritchard – 24 total trades with 13 different teams

• Lawrence Frank – 22 total trades with 16 different teams

A handful of GMs have done relatively few deals within their current peer group. Most have been in their current role for two or fewer years, with a few notable exceptions:

• Arturas Karnisovas – five total trades with five different teams

• Daryl Morey – eight total trades with seven different teams

• Masai Ujiri – eight total trades with six different teams

Now, it’s fair to point out that some GMs who have had led several different teams, probably have wider-ranging common trade partners from previous roles. And those who were assistant general managers have also built relationships across the league, especially since a lot of the actual trade talks start with the assistant GMs.

This wasn’t meant to be a be-all, end-all analysis. The idea was to see if there is anything to the idea of GMs linking up with the same peers for multiple trades. Considering 12 GMs have gone back to the same well at least three times, it’s fair to say it’s a theory that holds water.

So, when you hear a rumor that the Pacers and Nets or Pacers and Bucks or Knicks and Thunder are talking trade together, it’s probably fair to put a bit more stock in something getting done.

However, it’s also important to note that the list of common trade partners also includes some front offices that are notoriously leak-proof. Which is likely a big part of why they keep finding their way back to each other to get deals done. They know they won’t be negotiating through the media, because they can trust their partner on the other side.