Notable MLB Trade Candidates

Michael Ginnitti & Dan SoemannOctober 31, 2023

With the MLB offseason upon us, teams will soon be able to utlize the trade as a way to formulate 40-man rosters, clear payroll, and of course, improve themselves for the 2024 season. Spotrac has identified a player or two from each current roster that could be in discussions this winter, including any financial ramifications associated.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Jake McCarthy (OF, 26)

Arizona boasts a surplus of young talent in their outfield, and are almost guaranteed to bring in some form of veteran presence to bolster the position group this winter as well. McCarthy has one more year of pre-arbitration status, then projects to begin a 4-year arbitration track through the 2028 season. He’s already shown an ability to hang at this level (2.6 WAR in 100 2022 games), so this could be a splashy pickup for a team in need.

Atlanta Braves

AJ Smith-Shawver (SP, 21)

The former 7th round pick flew up the minor track last year, finding his way to 5 MLB starts for Atlanta down the stretch. Is this a real progression, or more fool’s gold? If Atlanta thinks they can sell high on a 21-year-old arm, look for them to pick up the phone. Otherwise, injuries already have this rotation in shambles, so every available option will be needed.

Also: Vaughn Grissom (SS, 23)

Baltimore Orioles

Jorge Mateo (SS, 29)

The Orioles are flush with young infield talent, putting the final 2 years of Mateo’s arbitration track on notice. His role was greatly reduced in 2023 after a breakout 2022 campaign (3.26 WAR).
Also: Anthony Santander (OF, 29); Tyler Wells (SP, 29)

Boston Red Sox

Alex Verdugo (OF, 28)

One of the main pieces in the unspeakable Mookie Betts trade is set to enter his third and final arbitration season in 2024, Verdugo has posted almost identical back-to-back-to-back seasons for Boston. He projects to eclipse the $9M mark next season, and Boston may not be in a position to keep many expiring contracts around
Also: Nick Pivetta (SP, 31)

Chicago Cubs

Drew Smyly (SP, 35)

It’s never good to shop a player coming off of a 4-year-low production season, but a change of scenery for Smyly might make sense for everyone here. The Cubs may need to pay down much of his $13M remaining ($10.5M in 2024 + a $2.5M buyout for 2025), but shedding a little cash make sense here if possible.

Chicago White Sox

Dylan Cease (SP, 28)

Cease couldn’t follow up a phenomenal 2022 in any capacity (4.58 ERA, 1.4 WHIP in 2023), but he remains a strikeout machine (3 straight 200+ seasons). With two years of arbitration still ahead, he’s in the perfect spot for Chicago to flip him for a sizable return. If they don’t believe they can build a winner around him - now is the time to strike.

Also: Michael Kopech (SP, 28); Yoan Moncada (3B, 29)

Cincinnati Reds

Jonathan India (2B, 27)

India filled up the stat board again in 2023, and his projected Arbitration 1 salary ($3.2M) isn’t too hot to handle for the Reds. With that said, the youth movement is officially here in Cincinnati with the likes of Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, & Spencer Steer ready to take over both this infield - and the lineup as a whole. With 3 years of term still ahead of him, India should fetch Cincy a really nice haul this winter.

Cleveland Guardians

Shane Bieber (SP, 29)

The 2020 Cy Young winner is entering the final season of arbitration in 2024, set to become a free agent next winter. Did Cleveland wait too long to move on? Maybe, but there are plenty of contenders (NY, NY, LAD, ATL, BAL to name a few) thirsty for ready-made top of the rotation starters right now. He’s on track for a $22M-$25M per year contract in the coming months.

Also: James Karinchak (RP, 28); Cal Quantrill (SP, 29)

Colorado Rockies

None. The Rockies traded 5 players at this past summer’s deadline, doing their dirty work for the winter early. Arm injuries to German Marquez & Antonio Senzatela likely have this front office reeling a bit for the upcoming season. This may be a pretty quiet team for most of 2024.

Detroit Tigers

Javier Baez (SS, 31)

This one is complicated, as Baez has the ability to opt out of the remaining 4 years, $98M of his contract. However, he also just posted his worst full season to date, becoming a legitimate liability at the plate for Detroit last year. Defensively, he’s still a marvel at times, so there’s a world where a contending team with middle infield woes wants a player such as Baez, as long as they have enough firepower to protect him in the batting lineup (Atlanta for instance). Assuming Baez opts-in, the Tigers may be inclined to pay down this contract in order to move it this winter.

Houston Astros

Framber Valdez (SP, 29)

Valdez began 2023 looking every bit the consistently great pitcher he’s been for Houston since 2021. But he faltered down the stretch, and was a liability come postseason time for the Astros. He holds two more arbitration seasons, including a projected $12.8M salary for 2024, so the time to shop is now, but it may be a bit of a sell low move for Houston this winter.

Kansas City Royals

Brady Singer (SP, 27)

Another example of a player who was on the fast track to an extension after 2022 (4.46 WAR), but really took a large step back in 2023 (5.52 ERA, 0.3 WAR in 29 starts). With 3 more years of arbitration still ahead of him, there’s no reason for KC to rush with any move, but KC is looking for a core to move forward with, and Singer may no longer be in the running.

Also: Salvador Perez (C, 33)

Los Angeles Angels

Patrick Sandoval (SP, 27)

Sandoval battled injuries in 2023, but he also looked a lot like the middling pitcher he came into the league as. The Angels aren’t in any position to be giving up on potential starting pitching, but snagging some trade value out of Sandoval - who had a fantastic 2022 - while it still exists could be smart business.

Also: Mike Trout (OF, 32)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Austin Barnes (C, 34)

Barnes posted a team-low -1.2 WAR for 2023, posting an OPS under .500 in 60 games. With that said, he’s still considered to be a viable backup catcher, and his $3.5M price tag for 2024 isn’t terribly daunting. Will Smith and top prospect Diego Cartaya likely break camp as the Dodgers’ backstop options.

Miami Marlins

Trevor Rogers (SP, 26)

Rogers can be lumped in with a few starting arms in the Marlins’ organization (Edward Cabrera to name one), as an area where the team can afford to get a little lighter in exchange for offense. Like many of the names on this list, Rogers hasn’t been able to recreate 1 fabulous season (2021 in his case), with an arm injury largely to blame for this past season’s numbers (4 ERA, 0.29 WAR). A change of scenery could reinvigorate his career, and three years of arbitration ahead of him should be attractive to teams in need.

Milwaukee Brewers

Corbin Burnes (SP, 29)

Burnes has now posted 3-straight 200 K seasons, 3-straight 3.5 WAR seasons, and is entering a 3rd and final arbitration season in 2024, projecting to cost around $14M. Offseason shoulder surgery for Brandon Woodruff could give Milwaukee reason to dial plans back a bit, which could mean moving their ace for the right trade package (Baltimore is on the clock). He projects to a 6 year, $150M extension in our system currently.
Also: Willy Adames (SS, 28)

Minnesota Twins

Kyle Farmer (INF, 33)

To be fair here the Twins don’t have a clear cut trade candidate, as their payroll contains an excellent balance of young and expensive right now. But it seems like they’re one legitimate “starter” away from really taking that next step, so moving on from a few depth pieces in order to acquire that next man up could be in store here. Farmer projects to a $6.2M salary for his last arbitration season.

New York Mets

Starling Marte (OF, 35)

Marte has battled injuries for the better part of two seasons in NY, and carries a massive $39M guaranteed over the next two years. The Mets haven’t been shy about paying down contracts to free up roster spots, but age, injury history, and contract aren’t on their side here.
Also: D.J. Stewart (OF, 30); Pete Alonso (1B, 29)

New York Yankees

Anthony Rizzo (1B, 34)

Rizzo battled concussion symptoms for the final two months of 2023, and was a shell of himself offensively for the four months that preceded it. The Yankees would be selling low here, and they probably have to pay down a significant portion of Rizzo’s $20M salary for 2024, but it seems like something needs to give on this current roster, and this might be the easier of the evils.

Also: Gleyber Torres (INF, 27)

Oakland Athletics

Paul Blackburn (SP, 30)

Blackburn holds 2 more years of arbitration, so he’s in the sweet spot for any team (let alone Oakland) to consider taking trade offers. He’s posted back to back strong seasons on the mound around poor A’s teams, putting him in line to be the next solid player to be developed and flipped by this organization. The 30-year-old projects to a $3.5M salary for 2024.

Philadelphia Phillies

Edmundo Sosa (INF, 27)

Sosa’s probably a career role player from here out, and his power numbers actually improved in 2023, but Philadelphia will be looking to improve their depth pieces this offseason (because they’re starting 9 is fairly rock solid), so swapping out Sosa for a young player or two to free up a roster spot for an incoming free agent seems right.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Mitch Keller (SP, 28)

Keller stormed out of the gate in 2023, putting himself in conversations with some of the games best. Things fell back to earth a bit as the summer came around, but he still finished the campaign with career numbers across the board, including 210 strikeouts & a 2.85 WAR. His salary likely jumps near the $7M next season, with another arbitration year still to follow thereafter. Pittsburgh is likely listening here, but it’s not a requirement that they move on (yet).

Also: David Bednar (RP, 29)

San Diego Padres

Juan Soto (OF, 25)

Juan Soto just turned 25 in mid-October, and is headed toward his 4th and final arbitration season in 2024 (projected to garner a salary at or around the $30M mark). The Boras Corp. client is likely destined for free agency next winter no matter what happens in the coming months, but it’s no secret that the Padres are fielding phone calls here, and that the big names are the ones calling. He projects to a 12 year, $400M contract in our system currently.

Also: Trent Grisham (OF, 27);

San Francisco Giants

Mike Yastrzemski (OF, 33)

The Giants seem like a team that had to revert to Plan B in many areas last season. Will they counter this offseason with a spending spree? If so, look for former core players like Yastremski, who projects to a $6.5M salary in his second to last arbitration season, to be shopped in exchange.

Seattle Mariners

Dylan Moore (UTIL, 31)

Moore’s usage in Seattle has been on a downward trend since 2020, but the Mariners chose to buy out the rest of his arbitration (+1 free agent season) on a 3 year, $8.875M extension last February. While cost isn’t necessarily an issue here, this feels like a contract better served on a team willing to utilize his versatility - freeing up a roster spot for a Mariners team looking to push more into contention.

St. Louis Cardinals

Tyler O'Neill (OF, 28)

The Cardinals have had a surplus in the outfield for awhile now, and have now paid O’Neill nearly $9M across the past two seasons for minimal production. He’s entering a third and final arbitration season in 2024, projected to earn around $5.5M, and should be on the move this winter.

Tampa Bay Rays

Tyler Glasnow (SP, 30)

When he’s healthy, he’s a sub-3.50 ERA, 11 strikeouts per 9 innings top of the rotation pitcher. But health hasn’t been on his side at any point in time over the past 7 seasons. Combine that with a $25M salary for 2024 (about $15M more than Tampa likes to pay anyone), and the writing seems to be on the wall here.

Also: Manuel Margot (OF, 29); Vidal Brujan (2B, 26)

Texas Rangers

Ezequiel Duran (INF, 25)

Duran was one of the Yankees better prospect when NY moved him to Texas for Joey Gallo back in 2021. He showed flashes off power/production this year in a limited role, but doesn’t appear to have a track to more opportunities with Corey Seager & Marcus Semien blocking his path for the foreseeable future.
Also: Leodys Taveras (OF, 25)

Toronto Blue Jays

Danny Jansen (C, 28)

Jansen projects to a $5.1M salary for 2024, his final arbitration season, coming off a year that saw career numbers in many areas (17 HRs, 15 2Bs, 53 RBIs). He’ll remain a platoon player behind Alejandro Kirk in this system, but could vie for a starting role in a better situation.

Also: Cavan Biggio (2B, 29); Santiago Espinal (3B, 29)

Washington Nationals

Dominic Smith (1B, 29)

Smith might be trending more toward a non-tender candidate than a trade option, but a fairly strong finish at the plate did lift his numbers into a somewhat respectable position (21 2Bs, 12 HRs, 0.89 WAR). He’s a depth piece at best, and his $5M+ projected salary for his 3rd and final arbitration will be too steep for most, but maybe there’s a fit out there.
Also: Patrick Corbin (SP, 34)

10 Years of World Series Matchup Payrolls

Michael GinnittiOctober 25, 2023

The Arizona Diamondbacks' 4-2 win over the Phillies last night secured their World Series ticket, setting up a preseason betting odds dream matchup with the Rangers. We'll take a closer look at the financials of our 2023 matchup, then take a quick ride through the financial matchups in each of the last 10 World Series.

2023

Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Rangers bring the 4th highest payroll ($251M) into this year’s Fall Classic, including a $510M middle infield in Corey Seager & Marcus Semien. Texas also compiled the 3rd most Injured List money in 2023, thanks in large part to Jacob deGrom’s arm injury. The Rangers pumped $828M into their past two free agencies.

Texas carried a $55M active starting rotation this season (not including the likes of Scherzer, deGrom, Gray, & Odorizzi due to injury), & a bullpen that relied heavily on Jose Leclerc & WIll Smith’s combined $10M. The Rangers’ 5-man outfield rotation accounted for only $4.8M this season.

Arizona becomes the latest inexpensive team to get to the finish line, carrying the 21st highest payroll in 2023 ($119M). Only 1 player (Ketel Marte) carried a 2023 salary larger than $10M, while 57% of the roster was comprised of players in pre-arbitration status. Young phenom Corbin Carroll already has his early extension (8 years, $111M through 2030), while it seems only a matter of time before Gabriel Moreno & Christian Walker (to name a few) get theirs.

The Diamondbacks have value all over their roster, including a $15M starting rotation (Gallen, Kelly, Nelson, Pfaadt), a closer (Sewald) they acquired at the deadline at a $1.3M salary, and a starting outfield of Carroll, Pham, & Thomas that accounted for just $3.8M on their books this season.

From a Starting 9 standpoint, the Rangers are poised to throw out a 1-9 that combined for $72.4M this season (85% of which belongs to Seager & Semien). Arizona's projected 1-9 accounted for just $34.2M this season.

2022

Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Houston’s #8 ranked payroll ($183M) defeated Philadelphia’s 4th ranked payroll ($244M) 4 games to 2. Philly snuck into the World Series through the back of the bracket, but their roster held no surprises on the books. Massive deals for Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, & Kyle Schwarber became worth every penny down the stretch. Houston, meanwhile, actually shedding a few financial pounds in 2022, with Carlos Correa & Greinke coming off the books for starters.

2021

Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros

The #10 payroll Braves ($152M) defeated Houston’s 5th ranked payroll ($194M) 4 games to 2. Freddie Freeman’s final hurrah in Atlanta was a storybook finish, while this young Braves group (Acuna, Albies, Riley) was about to be paid handsomely. Houston now had big deals for Jose Altuve & Zack Greinke on their books, putting them near the $200M mark for their first time.

2020

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The #1 payroll Dodgers ($125M) defeated Tampa’s incredible #28 ranked payroll ($28M) 4 games to 2. The biggest financial gap on our books saw the Rays bring a roster that contained only 1 player (Charlie Morton, $5.5M) with a salary north of $5M. Still, this young and feisty group couldn’t grasp control of a series against a Dodgers group that was worth $100M more, due in large part to the acquisition of Mookie Betts before the season.

2019

Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros

The #7 payroll Nationals ($172M) defeated the 8th ranked payroll Astros ($167M) 4 games to 3. While Washington’s win was a huge surprise, they didn’t come out of nowhere financially speaking, with large deals for Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, & Ryan Zimmerman all on the books. Strasburg would opt-out, and re-up into what has been a mess of a situation for the Nationals ever since. New deals for Justin Verlander & Michael Brantley, plus increased arbitration salaries for Gerrit Cole & George Springer finally vaulted Houston into Top 10 status.

2018

Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The #1 payroll Red Sox ($227M) defeated the 3rd ranked payroll Dodgers ($199M) 4 games to 1. This was the highest combined World Series matchup we have on the books, as Boston was carrying sizable contracts for David Price, JD Martinez, and Rick Porcello, while LA were amidst $400M worth of contracts for Clayton Kershaw and Matt Kemp still.

2017

Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The #17 payroll Astros ($138M) defeated the 1st ranked payroll Dodgers ($259M) 4 games to 3. This was the official breakout season of the Astros as we still know them, including the acquisition of Justin Verlander at the August waiver deadline. The Dodgers squandered a “super-team” from a payroll perspective, carrying 7 players with a salary north of $10M this season.

2016

Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Indians

The #5 payroll Cubs ($184M) defeated the 18th ranked payroll Indians ($106M) 4 games to 3. Chicago was bolstered by an expensive starting rotation (Lester, Lackey, Arrieta, Hammel), and a savvy deadline acquisition to the back of their bullpen in Aroldis Chapman. Cleveland was playing on house money with pre-arbitration salaries for the likes of Jose Ramirez & Francisco Lindor. Ramirez would sign his first extension the following March

2015

Kansas City Royals vs. New York Mets

The #13 payroll Royals ($126M) defeated the 18th ranked payroll Mets ($115M) 4 games to 1. The matchup featured only 1 player on the books at $20M+ (David Wright), and only 4 at $10M+ (Alex Gordon, Curtis Granderson, Bartolo Colon). Kansas City was a .500 team a year later, and have been well under that mark ever since.

2020 NBA Draft Class Rookie Scale Extensions

Keith SmithOctober 24, 2023

The deadline has come and gone for extending rookie scale contracts for members of the 2020 NBA Draft class. In total, 14 players reached extensions worth more than $1.4 billion in total salaries. Both are records, according to our data on Spotrac.

There were a few themes, perhaps signs of impacts of the new CBA already being felt.

THEME #1

Teams are now allowed to offer non-maximum five-year deals. Under the previous CBA, any rookie scale extension of five years had to be a max contract. That was felt right away.

We still saw three Designated Player extensions (Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball and Tyrese Haliburton), but there were three other five-year deals reached. Desmond Bane got what we’ll refer to as a functional max, as he has bonus language putting him just below a guaranteed max deal. Devin Vassell and Jaden McDaniels both got less than the max, but each got five years. That’s a new thing, and the coming years will tell us if those deals set a precedent.

THEME #2

Zeke Nnaji got the only player option in the class. And his came in a deal that was pretty creative (more on that later).

Player options on rookie scale deals had previously been reserved for the guys who established themselves as stars in their first three seasons. Both Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell got player options on the rookie scale extensions they signed in 2020. Luka Doncic and Trae Young each followed with a player option on their five-year max extensions. Since then, no one else has gotten one until Nnaji.

This is a return to norm. Player options are again being reserved for special cases, either superstars or creative contract structures.

THEME #3

Three players (Aaron Nesmith, Zeke Nnaji and Payton Pritchard) signed contracts that will come in under the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount. An additional three players (Deni Avdija, Cole Anthony and Josh Green) signed deals that will be roughly equivalent to the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

It used to be that to get a player to sign an extension, you had to beat the MLE amount. Otherwise, players would bet on themselves and enter restricted free agency. And deals far below the MLE equivalent were very rare.

That’s changing on both the player and team sides. Teams like Boston, Denver and Dallas are going to be dancing around the luxury tax and both tax aprons for the foreseeable future. Locking up their players now is good business. It keeps the player in the fold, while also giving the team some tradable salary down the line.

For Nesmith, Avdija and Anthony, this was a chance to lock in some guaranteed money in what could have been an uncertain season leading into an uncertain summer. None are locks to play a big enough role to have that true breakout season it would take to really cash in as restricted free agents. And their teams could all choose to go the cap space route, which might have taken any of the three out of the mix for a new deal.

For Nesmith, Anthony and Green, all took three-year deals (Anthony’s deal actually as a team option on the third season). In exchange for signing team-friendly extensions, all three players will be able to get back on the market while entering the prime years of their careers.

It’s also a reading of the landscape. The cap for 2024-25 doesn’t project to jump the full 10% possible, as of now. If the cap growth is less than some think, it could depress the market some. And restricted free agency is already far more team-friendly than player-friendly, as players like Austin Reaves and P.J. Washington discovered this past summer.

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Four years, $62 million

We wrote this in the prediction piece: “Normally, we’d say the Hawks should lock up Okongwu. But this team has so much long-term salary already committed for a middle-of-the-pack roster. Because of that, Atlanta may need to rebalance the roster a bit before taking care of Okongwu.” So much for that!

As it stands, Okongwu got one of the best deals from the team side. $15.5 million AAV for a guy who will probably be a good starting center in a year or two is tremendous value for an increasingly expensive Hawks team. And it frees up Atlanta to trade Clint Capela down the line to eventually rebalance the roster.

#7 Killian Hayes – Detroit Pistons

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

No real surprise here. Hayes has looked good this preseason, and Monty Williams seems to be a fan. But there hasn’t been enough real production to warrant an extension.

#8 Obi Toppin – Indiana Pacers

Prediction: No extension, unless he’s traded. Then, four years and $70 million seems like a worthy gamble as an upside bet.

Actual: No extension

Despite being traded from the New York Knicks to the Indiana Pacers, Toppin didn’t get an extension. That’s fine. The Pacers are taking a wait-and-see approach. If Toppin breaks out, Indiana can control the process in restricted free agency.

#9 Deni Avdija – Washington Wizards

Prediction: No extension

Actual: Four years, $55 million

This one was a bit of a surprise. The Wizards committed MLE-equivalent money to Avdija, but structured the deal as a declining contract. He’s the best defender on the roster, even if he’s in a crowded perimeter forward mix. If nothing else, this is a very tradable deal for Washington down the line.

#10 Jalen Smith – Indiana Pacers

Smith had his third- and fourth-year options declined by the Phoenix Suns. He was traded to Indiana during the 2021-22 season. Smith then signed a three-year, $15.1 million with the Pacers in the summer of 2022.

#11 Devin Vassell – San Antonio Spurs

Prediction: Five years, $115 million, no options

Azubuike had his fourth-year team option declined by the Jazz. Given the presence of Walker Kessler on the roster, it’s likely Azubuike will be playing elsewhere next season. (Azubuike is now on a two-way deal with the Phoenix Suns.)

#28 Jaden McDaniels – Minnesota Timberwolves

Prediction: four years, $100 million, no options

Actual: Five years, $131 to $136 million

McDaniels cashed in even more than we thought. Going the full five years is a win for the Timberwolves, which might have led to McDaniels getting more in terms of AAV than we predicted. This is still a really good deal for Minnesota and McDaniels both. The Wolves now have some cover if (when?) they trade either Karl-Anthony Towns or Rudy Gobert, between the extensions for McDaniels and Naz Reid. But in the short-term, the Wolves are going to be very expensive for a middle-of-the-pack team. That means moves are coming…eventually.

#29 Malachi Flynn – Toronto Raptors

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

It’s more surprising that Flynn had both of his rookie scale options picked up than him not getting extended. This is approaching Last Chance Saloon time for Flynn, as far as saving his NBA career.

#30 Desmond Bane – Memphis Grizzlies

Prediction: Five years, $207,350,000 (25% of the cap), no options

Actual: Five years, $197 million to $206 million

Bane didn’t get the max deal we predicted, but he more or less did. If he hits his incentives, Bane will make the max. Given he’s the surest thing for Memphis this season (and possibly beyond), this is a terrific contract for both the Grizzlies and Bane.

2019 Draft Class

Chuma Okeke – Orlando Magic

Prediction: No extension

Actual: No extension

Okeke signed a year later, after being drafted in 2019. Even with the extra year, he hasn’t shown enough to land an extension. The Magic also have a ton of talent stockpiled at Okeke’s positions. He’s more of a trade candidate now than he ever was an extension candidate.

nba rookie extension

Taking the Pulse of the Top 12 NFL QB Contracts

Michael GinnittiOctober 23, 2023

Taking the Pulse on Massive QB Contracts

The NFL is as much a “quarterback league” as it's ever been, but while players continue to lock into massive contracts every spring and summer, that doesn’t always necessarily translate to immediate (or sustainable) success on the field. Our snapshot look at the 12 largest QB contracts currently on the books, how they fare in terms of future stability, and their respective team’s outlook for 2023.

Patrick Mahomes

The current MVP favorite (+260) agreed to a restructure to his massive contract this September that moved up around $44M of cash into the next few seasons. All $44.5M of his 2024 compensation + $32.35M from 2025 is currently fully guaranteed, and everyone is just fine with that. The Chiefs enter Week 8 as the AFC #1 Seed.

Joe Burrow

Signed a 5 year, $275M extension in September that carries $146.5M fully guaranteed through 2025 out of the gate, with early triggers for 2026 & 2027 that all but lock in $219M. Health tempered the start to his 2023 season, but he looked as good as ever in Week 6. Despite that, Cincy’s playoff chances hover around 30%, as they find themselves “on the bubble” behind Houston & the Jets (if you can believe it).

Justin Herbert

Signed a 5 year, $262.5M extension in July that carries $133.7M fully guaranteed through 2025 out of the gate, with early triggers in 2026, 2027, & 2028 that lock in over $218M. The 2-4 Chargers are sliding down the standings this season, and could be staring down yet another coach/strategy change with Herbert under center. LAC carries a less than 10% chance to make the postseason, currently ranked 14th in the AFC (ahead of only the Patriots and Broncos).

Lamar Jackson

Lamar’s 5 year, $260M contract looks about as good as any out there right now, as the 26 year old has been as advertised through 7 weeks. He’s mostly guaranteed through 2025 right now, with all of $208M through 2026 guaranteeing early over the next few Marches. Baltimore is a Top 5 playoff team heading into Week 8, currently sitting as the #3 seed in the AFC.

Josh Allen

Allen’s 8 year, $284.5M total value contract still seems like a steal for Buffalo, all things considered. He’s fully guaranteed through 2024 & ½ guaranteed through 2025 at $55M right now, with another $10M set to lock in next March. The Bills could potentially consider options on this contract after the 2025 season however. Buffalo’s playoff chances slipped into the 50s with a Week 7 loss in NE, and they hold the 2nd hardest schedule the rest of the way.

Jalen Hurts

It’s good to be in Philly. Hurts’ new deal holds full guarantees through 2026 out of the gate, with nearly $180M practically locked in through 2027. The Eagles now hold the top NFC spot heading toward Week 8, and Hurts is a Top 3 MVP candidate.

Russell Wilson

Just a reminder that Russ could be earning $27M on an expiring contract from Denver this season. Instead, it’s $28M, with $39M more fully guaranteed through 2024, and another $37M set to lock in March 17th. It’s been a much better 2023 than 2022 for Wilson, and he’s hardly Denver’s biggest problem, but money talks loudest. The Broncos sit in the cellar of the AFC currently.

Kyler Murray

Still rehabbing his 2022 knee injury, Murray seems to be in line to return to his starting gig for the foreseeable future. He’s already fully guaranteed through 2024 at $35M, and there are early vesting triggers on every salary and roster bonus through 2027 thereafter. If Murray doesn’t return to form, this contract is going to be a problem for a while. Arizona currently resides at 15th in the NFC, with only 0-6 Carolina in a worse spot.

Deshaun Watson

The real reason we’re having this conversation, as Watson’s injury and overall lackluster play as a whole seems to be nearing surface. This contract remains “in a room over there” when attempting to compare it to anything else, because of the gravity of the deal in combination with how it came to fruition in the first place. But it’s here, it’s real, and it’s spectacular, so it’s important to dissect it whenever necessary. As the season turns to Week 8, this contract holds $138.66M remaining on it - fully guaranteed. Any thoughts of a trade after 2023 must include $62.9M of dead cap for Cleveland, and $138M fully guaranteed transferring to the new team. It’s wild stuff.

Daniel Jones

Jones’ 4 year, $160M contract was always going to be a 2 year, $82M contract until it wasn’t. His $36M salary for 2024 is already fully guaranteed, and everything thereafter is in a pay-as-you-go structure. The Giants are now 13th in the NFC, and trending toward a last place finish in the NFC East.

Matthew Stafford

Fully guaranteed through 2024 at $31M, another $10M from 2025 locks in next March. This situation has calmed down nicely. There’s a pretty real world where the Rams buyout that $10M and move on before 2025, especially with Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp (and likely Sean McVay) all very questionable to be in the mix at that stage. The Rams find themselves just outside the playoff picture heading toward Week 8, with the 16th toughest schedule the rest of the way.

Dak Prescott

Dak has a $5M roster bonus due March 17th, but that’s somewhat inconsequential to the greater story here. Will Prescott get the 2023 Kirk Cousins treatment (no extension, convert salary/roster bonus into signing bonus to lower the cap hit, but keep him on expiring contract), or will Dallas give Dak the 2018-22 Kirk Cousins treatment (small, guaranteed extension to lower the current cap without taking on too much weight down the road). It’s a pretty big 11 weeks in Dallas, who remain in the playoff picture (#6 in the NFC), but also hold the 8th hardest schedule down the stretch.

Next Contract Series: Klay Thompson

Keith SmithOctober 20, 2023

Klay Thompson has spent all 12 seasons of his NBA career with the Golden State Warriors. That includes the two seasons when Thompson painstakingly rehabbed from first a torn ACL and then a torn Achilles’ tendon. Given all Thompson and the Warriors have been through together, including winning four titles, it’s hard to imagine Thompson wearing another uniform.

Yet, Thompson and Golden State having seemingly made little progress in extension talks. That leaves Thompson potentially playing out an expiring deal and his future a little unsettled.

Before we get into what Thompson’s next contract could look like, let’s do a little background.

Thompson was drafted by the Warriors at the 2011 NBA Draft. He played out his rookie scale deal, and inked a four-year, $69 million extension. Thompson played that deal out, and then signed a new five-year, $190 million maximum contract in the summer of 2019.

That max deal is the one that is wrapping up now. Golden State signed Thompson to that contract, knowing he’d miss the first season, after he tore his ACL in the 2019 NBA Finals. After two missed seasons, Thompson return to help the Warriors win the 2022 NBA Finals. Now, he’s wrapping up the deal on a $43.2 million expiring contract for the 2023-24 season.

Thompson is 33 years old. He’ll be 34 when his next contract starts, whether it’s an extension or a new contract. Because Thompson is turning 34 ahead of next season, he’ll avoid bumping into the Over-38 rule by one season. That keeps things much simpler, when we consider the absolute max deal Thompson could ink.

Let’s dive into the various options Thompson and the Warriors have, now and this coming offseason.

Signing a Veteran Extension this season

Thompson is extension-eligible right now. There’s no waiting period for him to extend with the Warriors. Because he’s on an expiring deal, Thompson will remain extension-eligible through June 30, 2024 (the eve of free agency). Extension-eligible players that are on expiring deals (or have an option for the 2024-25 season) can sign an extension through the end of the league year. Extension-eligible players will multiple years left on their contract can only extend through October 23.

For the Warriors and Thompson, that gives them plenty of time to hammer out a new deal. A max extension for Thompson would look like this:

- 2024-25: $49,700,000
- 2025-26: $53,676,000
- 2026-27: $57,652,000
- 2027-28: $61,628,000
- Total: four years, $222,656,000

Thompson is eligible to extend for up to four total season and for 140% of his current salary. That 140% would take Thompson past his max salary, so he would be capped at $49.7 million for the 2024-25 season. That’s the projected 10-plus years of service maximum at 35% of the projected $142 million salary cap. If the cap goes up more than projected, the contract would adjust accordingly.

It’s important to note that this is the maximum amount that Thompson is eligible to extend for right now. It’s not likely he would get quite that much. We’re just setting the parameters here.

Re-signing with the Warriors as a free agent in 2024

If Golden State and Thompson can’t reach agreement on an extension, but they aren’t quite ready to part ways, he’ll be eligible to add a fifth season in a new max contract. The first four seasons would look the same as above, but there would be a fifth season tacked on:

- 2024-25: $49,700,000
- 2025-26: $53,676,000
- 2026-27: $57,652,000
- 2027-28: $61,628,000
- 2028-29: $65,604,000
- Total: five years, $288,260,000

This is a five-year, maximum salary, starting at the projected 35% of the cap max with 8% raises. Being able to add that fifth year makes a major difference, even if it’s unlikely that this contract would end up at that level.

One important note: If Thompson were to sign a new contract, as opposed to an extension, he’d be eligible to add a rare negotiated no-trade clause into his new deal. To date, only Bradley Beal (now of the Phoenix Suns) has a negotiated no-trade clause. Thompson would not be able to add a no-trade in an extension, because his current contract does not include a no-trade clause.

Signing with another team as a free agent in 2024

If things get really sideways and Thompson leaves the Warriors, here’s what a max deal with another team would look like:

- 2024-25: $49,700,000
- 2025-26: $52,185,000
- 2026-27: $54,670,000
- 2027-28: $57,155,000
- Total: four years, $213,710,000

That’s a 35% of the cap maximum contract, but limited to four years and 5% raises. In comparison to the extension Thompson could sign, he’d be leaving almost $9 million total on the table. And, of course, Thompson could only get a fifth year from the Warriors in a new contract.

Summary

As we said before, it’s really hard to imagine Klay Thompson playing out his career in anything but a Golden State Warriors jersey. The Warriors took care of Draymond Green this summer, despite rumors that a separation could happen. And, of course, Stephen Curry is signed through the 2025-26 season.

Curry is Curry, but Green’s new contract could be a possible signpost for where Thompson’s next deal ends up.

Even as he’s aged, Green has remained a productive player. He no longer brings that Defensive Player of the Year impact every game, but he summons it when necessary. And he’s still a good playmaker, rebounder and leader.

Thompson bounced back with a pretty solid season in his return year in 2022. He averaged 20.4 points per game on 43/39/90 shooting splits. That was good enough to be a big part of the Warriors winning the 2022 NBA Finals.

Last season, Thompson was even better. He averaged 21.9 points on 44/41/88 shooting splits. Most importantly, Thompson played in 69 regular season games and held up physically through the team’s second-round playoff exit.

That last part is important, as that’s what should give the Warriors (or, less likely, another team) confidence in giving Thompson a new contract. However, despite us laying out the max terms, Thompson isn’t getting a max deal. Instead, his current $43.2 million contract probably represents a good starting point for an extension.

In recent years, we’ve seen a handful of veteran players do an in-season extension that took their salary down from the prior season. The best example was Al Horford last season. Horford was on an expiring $26.5 million contract with the Boston Celtics. He signed a two-year, $19.5 million extension that runs through this season and next.

Thompson is younger than Horford, and better positioned to not have to take such a drastic pay cut. As laid out above, he’s still extremely productive, and he has a long, championship history with Golden State.

That brings us back to Green and his new contract. He made $25.8 million in 2022-23, before declining a $27.6 million player option for 2023-24. Despite rumors that Green could look to leave the Warriors, he pretty quickly agreed to a four-year, $100 million contract. That deal sees Green make $22.3 million this season, before topping out with a $27.7 million player option in 2026-27.

While Green hasn’t missed seasons like Thompson has, last year’s 73 games were the most he’s played in a single season since 2017. He’s regularly become a guy who will miss 20-30 games a year. Thompson, despite the two missed season, has been a relative ironman. And again, his nightly production is always there. He’s one of the more consistent performers in the NBA from game to game.

Adding it all up, and given the Warriors ever-present massive tax bill, an extension like this seems to make sense for both sides:

- 2024-25: $35,000,000
- 2025-26: $32,200,000
- 2026-27: $29,400,000
- 2027-28: $26,600,000
- Total: four years, $123,200,000

That’s the max allowable of four years, but it includes the max allowable 8% declines each season. As this extension would run through Thompson’s age-34 through age-37 seasons, it’s fair to expect some drop-off in his play. Having the contract mirror that makes sense. If Thompson wants a player option on that final season, that’s fair. Green got one on his new deal, and Andrew Wiggins got one in the extension he signed last summer. If that's the case, the final season would need to be for the same amount as the preceding season. This is because a player option can't be for less salary than the prior season was for. That would boost Thompson's contract to a slight bit more.

For Thompson, this locks in more money than Green got, which seems fair, given his durability and overall impact. It also aligns the team to have Thompson, Curry, Green and Wiggins all signed through at least the 2025-26 seasons.

If it’s more important for the Warriors to keep the tax bill in check right now, especially given the new second apron restrictions, they could structure a traditional deal that looks like this:

- 2024-25: $27,500,000
- 2025-26: $29,700,000
- 2026-27: $31,900,000
- 2027-28: $34,100,000
- Total: four years, $123,200,000

The overall money is exactly the same, but the contract starts lower and goes up the max allowed 8% per year. Again, a player option on the final season is a fair concession by Golden State.

This type of structure would help the Warriors lower their overall team salary into a range where getting under the second apron entirely is possible.

In reality, Golden State and Thompson will likely agree to a total salary number, and then the Warriors can structure the deal in whatever way they deem most beneficial. There are plusses and minuses to both approaches. A lot depends on how much the team cares about dodging the second apron in the immediate, balanced against creating some flexibility further down the line.

In the end, an extension makes the most sense for both Thompson and the Warriors. There’s no reason to make him play out the season in limbo, and possibly creating unnecessary drama approaching free agency in July. For Thompson, sacrificing making the most possible money to lock in security for the remainder of his career makes sense too. Look for both sides to eventually find that middle ground and to get a deal done before the end of the season.

nba next contract series klay thompson klay thompson

NBA Northwest Division Rotation and Roster Questions

Keith SmithOctober 19, 2023

The NBA preseason is here! Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next week or so. We’ve already covered the Atlantic Division, Central Division, Southeast Division, Southwest Division and Pacific Division teams.

Denver Nuggets

Is backup point guard a problem?

The Nuggets starting five is right up there with the best in the NBA. All five players complement each other well and there’s a good mix of offense and defense. Behind them, things get a little shakier. No more so than at backup point guard.

After Denver traded away Monte Morris, this spot was messy last year. Bones Hyland got the primary opportunity, and he was dealt away at the trade deadline, in part because he wasn’t meshing as hoped for. The Nuggets added Reggie Jackson after he worked a buyout, and he re-signed with the team this past offseason, but is Jackson really the answer behind Jamal Murray?

Jackson played in 16 regular season games with Denver last year and he struggled. Jackson couldn’t make shots and wasn’t very good on defense. By the time the playoffs rolled around, the 12-year veteran was only getting garbage time minutes.

The Nuggets gave Jackson the entirety of their $5 million Taxpayer MLE in free agency. That qualified as one of the summer’s more surprising signings. Most had Jackson pegged as a veteran minimum guy. It’s possible that Denver plussed up Jackson’s contract, in exchange for him waiving his ability to block a trade. If so, that makes a lot of sense. His contract could allow Denver to do some things they wouldn’t have been able to do otherwise in trades.

On the court, Jackson could bounce back. 16 games and 319 minutes is hardly a big sample size. And the prior couple of seasons, Jackson was pretty solid in a much bigger role than anyone could have predicted with the LA Clippers.

If Jackson can’t turn it around, Denver is pretty thin at the position. Rookie guard Jalen Pickett could probably give Denver some minutes. Pickett has good size for the position and he’s a solid playmaker. He was a very streaky shooter in college, and rookies are rarely ready defensively. But Pickett comes in as a five-year college player. So, he should be more ready than most rookies to play NBA minutes.

Collin Gillespie is back on a two-way deal, after missing his entire first year with an injury. But he shot it terribly at Summer League and hasn’t hit much better in the preseason. Gillespie’s college profile was that of a good shooter though, so we aren’t going to write him off yet.

In reality, Denver’s offense is different from any other in the NBA. Their primary playmaker is their center. Murray is a point guard in name only, as he makes most of his impact as a scorer and shooter. That lessens the needs for a high-end backup ballhandler. But if Murray needs rest, either in-game or for a night off, someone has to step up. Jackson will get the first opportunity, but don’t be surprised if Pickett ultimately snags the role as Murray’s backup.

What about the rest of the bench?

Denver lost Bruce Brown, who was a key contributor to their title run. They also lost Jeff Green to the Houston Rockets, and Vlatko Cancar will miss this season after a torn ACL over the summer.

Christian Braun will step in as the replacement for Brown. Denver is high on Braun, and he got a lot of experience as a rotation guy on last season’s title team. He looks ready for a bigger role this year.

We covered the backup point guard spot above, but that leaves another forward spot open and a backup big man spot available. The Nuggets are poised to rely on younger players to fill both roles.

Peyton Watson has been the talk of the offseason, and he seems like he’ll get a shot at rotation minutes at the perimeter forward spot. Rookie first-rounder Julian Strawther has been terrific in the preseason, following a strong Summer League. Strawther is going to factor into the rotation sooner, rather than later. Those two will probably wage a head-to-head battle for minutes. Let the best defender, cutter and shooter win.

Behind Nikola Jokic, things are a lot more in question. DeAndre Jordan re-signed for another run, but he’s more of a locker room presence than an on-court one. If pressed into action, Jordan will provide some rugged defense, rebounding and solid screening. But Jordan’s career is closer to the end than his productive prime years.

The Nuggets would love for Zeke Nnaji to seize the backup five role. His shooting ability would be a nice fit on the second unit. But last season was a mess for Nnaji. He battled injuries and some really shaky shooting. Denver needs to see him return to the form of his first two seasons before they can feel good about running him out on the floor for 15 minutes a night.

Justin Holiday was signed to provide some veteran depth, and a shooting presence. He’ll step in if one of the younger wings isn’t quite ready for their role. The Nuggets are also high on Hunter Tyson, who was drafted in the second round. He might see some minutes too, akin to the situations that Strawther and Jalen Pickett are in.

Mostly, if no one steps forward, look for Calvin Booth to swing a trade to fill a hole. It might mean moving on from a younger player or two, but such is life when you’re on top and everyone is trying to take you down.

Minnesota Timberwolves

How will the perimeter rotation shake out?

The Wolves starting group is set with Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley in the backcourt and Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels up front. Behind them, Minnesota has talent, but it might take a bit for roles to become defined. Nowhere is that truer than on the perimeter.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker is back, and he’ll grab one wing/guard spot. Newcomers Troy Brown Jr. and Shake Milton will be in the mix too. Given teams generally start with an expanded rotation, it’s likely all three will play minutes in the early part of the season. Naz Reid and Kyle Anderson are entrenched as the frontcourt backups.

The real question is if Jordan McLaughlin (in and out of the rotation in his four seasons in Minnesota) or Wendell Moore (coming off a forgettable rookie season) can steal rotation roles. McLaughlin is more of a pure point guard than either Alexander-Walker or Milton. Moore needs to make shots to have a chance at seeing some wing minutes. Finally, keep an eye on Josh Minott. He’s got a really intriguing mix of skill and size. He did some things on the G League level that could project to NBA production. He’s a sleeper rotation candidate to watch.

Who is the backup point guard?

We touched on this above, but we’ll expand on it here. This is basically a three-way, and really a two-way, battle between Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Shake Milton and Jordan McLaughlin.

Alexander-Walker spent the first few seasons of his career as a theoretical big point guard. He never quite fit that mold though, and it took until last season for him to really find a foothold in the league. Alexander-Walker leaned into being a 3&D player, who could also do some secondary ballhandling. The Wolves seem to see him more in that role, so we’ll take Alexander-Walker out of the mix behind Mike Conley.

Jordan McLaughlin is the holdover. After flashing late in his pandemic-shortened rookie season, McLaughlin snagged a rotation role in his second year. Unfortunately, each of the last two seasons have seen him backslide some. McLaughlin stopped making his outside shots, in addition to battling a midseason injury last season. If he starts making jumpers again, McLaughlin will use his combination of playmaking ability and pesky defense to force his way back on the floor.

Milton is kind of an opposite of McLaughlin. He’s got more size and he’s a better shooter. But he’s only a so-so playmaker and his defense has never really been more than passable. Milton brings the added benefit of being able to play on the wing, where McLaughlin is more of an on-ball guard.

The guess here is that Milton gets sort of the first crack, as his shooting ability can help open up the floor Anthony Edwards and the Wolves big man. But McLaughlin will crack the rotation at some point. He just makes thing happen. And if McLaughlin makes shots, he’ll be hard to take out of the mix.

Oklahoma City Thunder

What is the rotation going to look like?

Mark Daigneault used his first two seasons as Oklahoma City head coach perfectly. He experimented with lineups and player combinations relentlessly. Even last year, when the Thunder were ahead of schedule as far as being a competitive team, Daigneault kept testing and adjusting his rotation and groupings.

Now, Oklahoma City is here (but hot HERE here just yet) and there are some expectations for this group. That likely means there isn’t as much room for experimentation. But that’s not really a problem. Daigneault knows what talent he has now.

The starting five appears set. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a star, Jalen Williams (the wing one) is headed in that direction. Josh Giddey’s funky slashing, do-a-little-of-everything game just fits, while Lu Dort is the team’s perimeter stopper. Chet Holmgren joins them for his delayed rookie season. If preseason is any example, he’s the fifth finger in a pretty well-fit glove.

Behind those five, things are more unsettled. Jaylin Williams (the big one) will be Holmgren’s backup when he gets back from a what seems to be a minor injury. Kenrich Williams is going to find his way on the floor, because he’s too impactful not to. Presumably, Vasilije Micic didn’t come over to sit on the bench, so he’ll snag a backup guard role. And Isaiah Joe brings deadeye shooting to a roster short on that skill.

Maybe it’s that simple. That’s Daigneault’s nine-man rotation. But something says that’s shortsighted. Too many other guys are simply too good to just be completely out of the mix

Ousmane Dieng is all limbs and potential. He’s going to factor in, if for no other reason so OKC can see what they have him. Dieng had some nice games over the final quarter of his rookie season, and the Thunder will want to see if that carries over.

Aaron Wiggins might not jump out at you right away, but if you take a deeper look, you’ll find a lot to like. Wiggins will unleash the occasional highlight jam, but he’s more than that. Wiggins is a good finisher around the rim, and he knocked down 39.3% of his threes last season. He’s also a competitive defender. It’s hard to see him getting completely shelved.

Tre Mann and rookie Cason Wallace are going to put pressure on Micic for backup guard minutes. Mann took a step back with a less consistent role in his second season than he had in his rookie year. But he can still score, and there’s a playmaker in there that’s ready to break out. Wallace is your typical Kentucky guard. He’s a little shaky on offense, but you get the feeling he can do more than he showed while in college. And you love the toughness, the defensive tenacity and the willingness to mix it up on the boards, despite a lack of size. He just screams that he’ll find his way on the floor eventually.

If we count in the top-nine guys and combine them with Dieng, Wiggins, Mann and Wallace, we’re already at 13 guys. And we haven’t even touched on Davis Bertans (a prototypical Thunder reclamation project) and Aleksej Pokusevski (currently injured and in danger of becoming an unrealized project).

In a very real sense, Oklahoma City has 15 guys who can play. That’s incredible considering this team was torn down to the studs just a couple of years ago. But the days of all 15 guys playing somewhat regularly, because the team was mixing and matching game to game, are over. Look for the top-nine we called out to be the regulars, with the others slotting in as matchups, injuries or ineffectiveness open up minutes.

That means Mark Daigneault might be having some difficult conversations, but he’s up for it. And, more importantly, minutes will be fully earned on this team moving forward. That’s an exciting place for a franchise to be in as they go from rebuilding to competing.

Who gets cut?

The Thunder have taken care of this to some extent throughout the course of the offseason. They moved on from Usman Garuba and TyTy Washington, after acting as a clearinghouse for their contracts this summer. Both have potential, but the rest of the league wasn’t as all over either player as suggested, as both Garuba and Washington are on two-way deals now.

Oklahoma City further cleaned things up by trading Victor Oladipo (really his $9.45 million contract) and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl to the Houston Rockets. In exchange, the Thunder waive Kevin Porter Jr. and ate his contract, while picking up two more future second-round picks for Sam Presti’s stash. Oladipo might have been an easy cut, but Robinson-Earl has played real minutes for the Thunder and they might not wanted to have moved on simply by waiving him.

That leaves one tough cut to make. At this point, it looks like Jack White could be the one on the outside looking in. The Thunder thought highly enough of White to give him $600,000 in guaranteed money this summer. Maybe the thought was that something would open up to keep him around. As of this writing, that hasn’t happened. It’s hard to see the team waiving anyone else.

Maybe, and it’s a major maybe, the team is ready to move on from Aleksej Pokusevski. The developmental minutes that Pokusevski needs no longer seem available. He also doesn’t seem to be in line for a contract extension. If the Thunder are done waiting on his potential, Poku’s days could be numbered.

We’ll guess it’s White, which is somewhat unfortunate. His guarantee is too large for him to play for Oklahoma City’s G League affiliate. That means White will be off elsewhere for next season. But it just seems like the team won’t ties with Pokusevski…yet.

Portland Trail Blazers

Who is the fifth starter?

Four starting spots are spoken for in Portland. Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons are going to start in the backcourt. Deandre Ayton and Jerami Grant are starting up front. That means the wing spot is up for grabs.

Shaedon Sharpe has the most long-term potential, but that would leave the Blazers starting three guards. That means they’ll be undersized and lacking some defense. A lineup of Henderson, Simons, Sharpe, Grant and Ayton will hopefully see lots of minutes, but it might not open games.

That means Matisse Thybulle is probably the best bet to start games. He’s easily the best defensive player on the roster. Yes, that’s a low bar to clear, but Thybulle leaps over it with ease anyway. And in 22 games with Portland, Thybulle shot 38.8% on 3.9 three-point attempts per game. That’s really, really intriguing.

The defense will probably get Thybulle the first crack at the starting spot, but the shooting will keep him in it. If he regresses as a shooter, and defenses start making things too hard on Ayton to work in the paint and to easy to collapse on Henderson drives, Sharpe might wedge his way in there.

There’s also a slight chance that Chauncy Billups might want to go big and will start Robert Williams next to Ayton, while pushing Grant to the three. That’s worth experimenting with, but probably not as a starting group. That would really shrink the floor a lot, and that makes life harder than it needs to be on Henderson and Simons to get the offensive moving. But for a few minutes here and there, it’s worth checking out.

One last thing to keep an eye on, but further down the line: Sharpe starting over Simons. There are some who believe that Simons best role on a winning team will be as a high-volume sixth man. Think Jamal Crawford or Lou Williams. This space isn’t going to tell you that Simons should go to the bench. We’re big fans of his. But if Portland wants to experiment late in a lottery season, they could give it a shot.

Could the bench be a strength?

Either Shaedon Sharpe or Matisse Thybulle is going to come off the bench. We’re guessing Robert Williams will do the same. Malcolm Brogdon is going to play too, for however long he’s in Portland. Kris Murray has some potential as a ready-to-play rookie, and Jabari Walker flashed at times as a rookie.

Even if it’s just the Sharpe/Thybulle non-starter, Williams and Brogdon that contribute as reserves, that’s pretty good. That’s better than some playoff teams will feature. There’s even a chance that we could see Portland’s starting group bleed points, while the backups come in and cut into leads. Both lineups are built for that sort of potential.

If nothing else, on the nights when the Blazers starters do hand off a lead, the bench shouldn’t immediately hand it back. That’s always a positive on a young team, as it keeps from frustration creeping in. Frustration with holding leads often ends up in younger players taking on a Thanos-like approach of “Fine. I’ll do it myself.” And that never leads anywhere good, whether it be for young players or Thanos.

Utah Jazz

What does the guard rotation look like?

The Utah Jazz have a lot of guys who can play. For a team in Year 2 of a rebuild, Utah is pretty well stocked. Most know the frontcourt is deep in options, but the guard group is actually even more of an open competition.

After Mike Conley was traded at the deadline, the most-common starting guards were Jordan Clarkson and Talen Horton-Tucker. They are both back, as is Collin Sexton, who suffered through an injury-plagued season. Kris Dunn, who experience a major career rejuvenation, is also returning. That’s already four-deep, but there’s more.

Ochai Agbaji is a pure wing, but most of his minutes came at the two, as part of jumbo-sized lineups. And Keyonte George looks like he’s going to make it very hard to keep him off the floor as a rookie.

If we take Agbaji out of the mix and assume he’ll see more minutes at the three this year, that’s still five guys for four spots. Injuries might open up minutes for someone, but this a delicate situation for Will Hardy to sort through.

Horton-Tucker is on an expiring deal, as is Dunn. They’re both going to want chances to show what they can do. Sexton has three years left on his contract, and Clarkson added two years to his deal too. That makes them at least somewhat a part of the longer-term future in Utah. It’s also safe to assume the Jazz are going to want to see what they have in George at some point.

It’s been rumored that teams have called on Horton-Tucker. Moving him could add to Danny Ainge’s already overflowing treasure chest of draft picks, while opening up minutes in the backcourt. After four years, it’s clear that Horton-Tucker is a solid all-around player, but he’s a “jack of all trades, master of none” guy. And his lack of shooting won’t allow him to play the on-ball minutes he needs on a good team. If someone has to move out of the rotation, and Dunn’s offense from last season carries over, Horton-Tucker makes sense as the odd man out.

For now, Hardy can keep mixing and matching, while spotting guys rest days here and there. But that will wear thin relatively quickly. Figuring out which guards complement a talented frontcourt long-term is near the top of the to-do list for this season.

Will the rookies get to play?

We touched on it above with Keyonte George, but it’s going to be just as hard for Taylor Hendricks and Brice Sensabaugh to find minutes. It’s no longer a guarantee in the NBA that first-round-pick status means you get entitlement minutes. Teams don’t function that way anymore, unless they are really bad, or at the end of a lost season.

That means George, Hendricks and Sensabaugh will have earned any minutes they get. That’s not a bad thing, as you want to them to have to compete from Day 1. But young players, who have been stars or main cogs for their entire lives, can get frustrated if they are sitting game after game.

We already covered how George will have to fight his way through a crowded guard group. If Hendricks wants to play, he’ll have to show that he can do it at the three. Walker Kessler will play all of his minutes at the five, but the four will feature some combination of John Collins (in the big starting group), Lauri Markkanen (in smaller, more traditional lineups) and Kelly Olynyk (when he’s not backing up Kessler). That leaves very little room for Hendricks to play what looks like his natural position.

But if Hendricks can defend on the perimeter enough, shoot it well enough and do a little bit of ballhandler, he can find minutes behind Markkanen at the three. Because he missed Summer League with an injury, we’ve only seen some small preseason glimpses of Hendricks. He very much remains a mystery box.

As for Sensabaugh, it’s hard to see how he’ll see many minutes as a rookie. He’s played even less than Hendricks. Barring something unexpected, it’s a good bet that Sensabaugh sees more minutes in the G League than the NBA this season.

Again, it’s not a bad thing if the Jazz rookies aren’t gifted minutes right out of the gate. But if you were expecting to see immediate fruits from this draft class, you’re going to be disappointed. There’s a good deal of ripening that will need to happen, maybe even a full season’s worth. But it should pay off with three good players that can fill rotation holes as the roster evolves over the next few years.

nba denver nuggets minnesota timberwolves oklahoma city thunder portland trail blazers utah jazz denver nuggets minnesota timberwolves oklahoma city thunder portland trail blazers utah jazz

Financial Ramifications for NFL Trade Candidates

Michael GinnittiOctober 18, 2023

The NFL Trade Deadline is less than two weeks away, with the window to move player set to close at 4PM ET, Halloween day. We’ll dive into a few names rumored to be on the trade block this month, including the financial ramifications associated with a move.

QUARTERBACKS

Not much to see here honestly (as per usual with starting QBs at the trade deadline). Minnesota will need to bottom out and be blown away by an offer to honestly consider moving Cousins, and Tennessee would need to pay down most of Tannehill’s remaining $15M to even begin to get sniffs. If you told me a few experienced backups (Jameis Winston, Mason Rudolph) found a new home by November, that wouldn’t be too surprising.

Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)

Minnesota converted $20M of Cousins’ 2023 compensation into signing bonus prior to the season, leaving just a $10M base salary to operate with. They’ll be $5.5M of it remaining at the deadline should he truly hit the block. He projects to a 3 year, $117M contract in our system currently.

Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)

Tannehill’s QB Rating is at a career low 71 entering Week 7, and an ankle injury, plus a $15M deadline salary could be far too much for another team to swallow, even if just as a rental.

RUNNING BACKS

Kind of get the feeling this list is going to grow significantly as we get closer to Halloween, but for now, these players at least have a legitimate reason to be on the trade block.

Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)

The 29 year old is in a contract year in Tennessee, who have begun to sell off pieces at this deadline. The productive as ever running back carries a $5.8M deadline salary.

Rashaad Penny (RB, PHI)

Penny finds himself 4th on the Philly depth chart heading toward the deadline, but a $670,000 deadline salary could make him attractive to teams in need.

Dalvin Cook (RB, NYJ)

It’s been weird right? Cook was always going to be insurance for Breece Hall, but at this stage it just seems like he’s an extra body in the room. He’ll carry about $3.6M remaining on his 1 year contract at the deadline, including per-game active bonuses.

Ke'Shawn Vaughn (RB, TB)

Fournette leaving was supposed to vault Vaughn into a big role for Tampa, but it’s been much of the same for the former #76 pick. A change of scenery to finish off his rookie contract ($672,770 deadline salary) seems a good fit here.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)

Last year’s breakout star is now averaging only 3 yards per rushing attempt, and is on pace to catch 20 less balls than he did in 2022. Is it a back to earth situation? Is he missing the viable 1-2 punch that Damien Harris afforded him? Stevenson holds $522,222 at the deadline, with a non-guaranteed $1,055,000 available in 2024.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB, KC)

CEH’s usage has been much better to start 2023 than it has been in recent years (likely to account for Jerick McKinnon’s disappearing act thus far). Has he proved himself to be a viable weapon for this KC team down the stretch? The final year of his rookie contract holds a $1,103,150 salary at this year’s deadline.

WIDE RECEIVERS

This list is loaded with talented WRs who, for the most part, are either stuck on bad rosters, or buried in a depth chart right now. Feels like at least three of these will be changing cities in the next two weeks.

Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN)

Sutton was rumored to be in trade talks prior to the season, so it only makes sense to include him here now with the Denver situation not much improved. He’s in Year 3 of a 5 year, $62M contract, including an $8,042,476 salary for the remainder of 2023. None of the 2 years, $27.5M remaining thereafter comes with an early guarantee.

Jerry Jeudy (WR, DEN)

Jeudy posted career numbers in 2022, but he’s done little to hold up his end of the #15 overall draft selection. It didn’t stop Denver from exercising his 5th-year-option for 2024, meaning a trade at the deadline would send along $1,489,871 guaranteed for the rest of 2023, & $12,987,000 fully guaranteed in 2024.

Marquise Brown (WR, ARI)

Hollywood is having his healthiest and most productive season in a few years right now, despite a makeshift offense being thrown together in Arizona. There’s a world where he’s a part of their future, and this is an extension conversation instead of a trade one. But if not, paying down some of the $7,451,666 remaining on this deal to acquire a strong draft pick makes a lot of sense for the Cardinals.

Adam Thielen (WR, CAR)

On paper, Thielen penned a 3 year, $25M free agent contract with Carolina this past March, but from a guarantee standpoint it’s essentially a 1 year, $14.5M deal. An acquiring team would take on around $900,000 for this season, with a $4M guarantee built into his 2024 compensation. Doable, but not likely?

K.J. Osborn (WR, MIN)

Justin Jefferson’s injury might make this a less viable move for Minnesota, but Osborn is playing out the final year of his rookie contract, and his $1.5M deadline salary could be attractive to a contender in need.

Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)

He’s just a year and a half removed from a 103 catch, 9 TD season for the Raiders, but has fallen completely out of favor in terms of targets & subsequent production. There’s about $3.9M left on his 2023 compensation when you factor in per-game-active bonuses, so Las Vegas might benefit from paying that down a bit to secure a larger draft pick in return. None of Renfrow’s $11.8M for 2024 contains an early guarantee.

Kendrick Bourne (WR, NE)

He’s on pace for a career high in targets & receptions, so the Patriots have at least made a bigger attempt to incorporate his services this year. A $3M deadline salary may be too rich for some teams, but it’s possible New England can flip Bourne in the coming days.

Parris Campbell (WR, NYG)

The Giants took a flier on the former 2nd rounder with an incentive-laden showcase deal, but honestly, it’s tough to imagine a team taking on the $1.9M cap hit to acquire the 26-year-old at this deadline.

Terrace Marshall (WR, CAR)

Carolina drafted Marshall #59 overall back in 2021 but have received little to no return on investment since then. A change of scenery makes sense here for Marshall, who carries a $614,367 deadline salary for the rest of 2023, then a non-guaranteed $1,441,294 in 2024.

Devin Duvernay (WR, BAL)

Duvernay still holds plenty of value as the leading return man in Baltimore, but his targets as a receiver have almost completely gone by the wayside. With a $2.4M deadline salary, it seems most likely that he remains with the Ravens to complete his rookie contract.

Donovan Peoples-Jones (WR, CLE)

DPJ took a nice step forward in 2022, posting career highs across the board and making him one of the more notable “breakout” candidates for 2023. It hasn’t worked out that way, leaving an underutilized 24-year-old WR on an expiring contract seeking a bigger role elsewhere. His $1.5M deadline salary shouldn’t be too daunting to move this month.

TIGHT ENDS

Not much to write home about here, and New England moving on from Henry is probably a long shot, but Ertz latching on to a contender to (likely) finish off his career should be considered a must move.

Zach Ertz (TE, ARI)

Ertz is in Year 2 of a 3 year, $31.5M contract in Arizona, but none of his $10M for 2024 is guaranteed right now. Barring any retained salary from the Cardinals, an acquiring team would take on $5.1M to bring in Ertz at the deadline.

Hunter Henry (TE, NE)

If the Patriots truly decide to rip the band-aid off on their expiring contracts, Henry could very much be in demand. A $5.8M deadline salary could be too rich for many, but New England may be willing to help lower that number a bit to get something done.

OFFENSIVE LINEMEN

Bolles is a viable starting tackle, but he’s been publicly calling out the coaching staff in Denver of late. That’s generally a sign that the relationship isn’t going to continue much longer. Cleveland & Onwenu are on expiring contracts and could return mid-to-late draft picks before they hit the open market.

Garett Bolles (OL, DEN)

Bolles is in Year 4 of a 5 year, $70M contract, but none of his $16M set in 2024 is guaranteed right now. An acquiring team would be looking at $8.6M for the rest of 2023, making this one a tough sell for Denver.

Ezra Cleveland (OL, MIN)

Cleveland currently sits as a Top 10 rated Guard according to PFF, so it’s not crazy to think that Minnesota could be considering an extension out of his expiring rookie contract instead of a trade, but it seems like everyone might be on the table for the Vikings this week in some capacity. Cleveland carries a $1.6M deadline salary.

Mike Onwenu (OL, NE)

Onwenu had a strong start to his career in New England, but appears to be sliding in terms of future with the organization. He carries a $1.6M deadline salary in the final year of his rookie contract.

DEFENDERS

Honestly, there’s a lot more smoke than fire here with many of these names, but it stands to reason that a player or two on an expiring contract should be flipped for a draft asset.

Brian Burns (DE, CAR)

If news breaks that Brian Burns has been traded this month, be prepared for a trade compensation package that comes with shock and awe, because that seems to be the only way Carolina gives up on this relationship midseason. Burns is playing out his $16M 5th-year-option in 2023, with free agency or a franchise tag ahead of him next March. His deadline salary comes in just under $8.9M.

Chase Young (DE, WAS)

After Washington declined Young’s 5th-year-option for 2024, it seemed the writing was on the wall for his future with the Commanders. But he’s played well to start the 2023 campaign, making a deadline trade less likely than originally thought. His $2.95M deadline salary will certainly attract some attention either way.

Carl Lawson (DE, NYJ)

Lawson missed all of 2021, but then posted 7 sacks in 2022 to resurrect his tenure with the Jets. A slow start to 2023, plus an extremely tradable $600,000 deadline salary makes this one of the more likely moves.

Julian Okwara (LB, DET)

The former 3rd rounder finds himself buried in the Lions depth chart right now as he returns from an early season knee injury. Now on an expiring rookie contract, look for Detroit to seek a late round draft pick in exchange for his friendly $712,475 deadline salary.

Danielle Hunter (LB, MIN)

Hunter seems to find his name on every trade list, and maybe rightfully so (8 sacks, 32 tackles, 1 forced fumble, in 350 snaps). But his $6.3M deadline salary (including per game active bonuses) is a bigger number than we’re used to seeing move midseason. Will Minnesota pay it down a bit to make him an easier acquisition?

Preston Smith (LB, GB)

Smith just locked in a 4 year extension in March of 2022, but it feels like the Packers could be reshuffling quite a few roster spots in the coming months - especially if they fall out of contention in 2023. Smith is a get to the quarterback player with a $965,000 deadline salary (and no guarantees on his future $39.9M). Somebody’s calling.

Jerry Hughes (LB, HOU)

Hughes was a big part of a transitioning Houston team in 2022, but his role has reduced now that many young players are starting to flourish in starting positions. There’s plenty reason for the Texans to keep him around for the rest of 2023, but if he seeks a larger role elsewhere, his $1.26M deadline salary isn’t too daunting.

Jaylon Johnson (CB, CHI)

I’m on record stating that the Bears need to be thinking core players, not flashy weapons, so I’m in what appears to be a minority that feels as though the Bears should be looking to lock in their talented CB on an expiring contract. But if the trade compensation is too good to pass up, the acquiring team can have him at $1.6M for the rest of the season.

Adoree' Jackson (CB, NYG)

It feels like the Giants are nearing sell-mode, and Jackson’s expiring contract would certainly qualify as a candidate for that. It’s a $6.6M investment to take on the former #18 overall pick for the rest of 2023.

Kaiir Elam (CB, BUF)

To say that Elam and the Bills haven’t been a match made in heaven since he was selected #23 overall back in 2022 is an understatement. Sure it’s still early, and yes he’s only 22 years old, but the BIlls aren’t in a window to wait around for anybody - and Tre’Davious White’s potential career-ending injury expedited a need to get bigger and better at this position. A move at the deadline comes with $737,394 for the rest of 2023, $1,949,619 in 2024, & $2,571,929 - all fully guaranteed.

Harrison Smith (S, MIN)

Toss 11-year vet Smith into the “if the Vikings fire sell” bucket. The 34-year-old is under contract through 2025, but the next two seasons are “fluffy” in terms of guarantee. For all intents and purposes, this is a 1 year, $4.4M rental.

Xavier McKinney (S, NYG)

A healthy McKinney is an above average safety in this league, and that’s exactly what he’s been in 2023. The former #36 overall pick is on an expiring rookie contract, holding a $974,574 salary at the deadline. NY should be extending him, not shopping him.

Projecting a Pete Alonso Contract Extension

Michael GinnittiOctober 17, 2023

The New York Mets' historic payroll and seemingly immediate collapse in 2023 has quickly turned Pete Alonso’s future with the organization into a bit of a soap opera. The 28-year-old first baseman will be entering his third and final arbitration year in 2024, putting the onus on the franchise to pay, trade, & deal with another Scott Boras client heading into the open market.

We’ll assess option number 1 here, projecting the current value of a long-term extension for Pete Alonso and the New York Mets this winter.

Alonso’s Resume

Pete Alonso enters the final stretch toward free agency as a 3X All Star, Rookie of the Year, with two seasons (2019, & 2022) where he was one of the best power hitters in all of baseball. He carries an .870 career OPS, averaging 25 doubles, 41 homers, and 155 games played over the past 3 seasons. 6.6% of the time he’s come to bat in 5 seasons, he’s hit a home run. The league average over that span is 3.3%. Defensively, Alonso carries a .992 career fielding percentage, compiling only 39 errors in 621 games as an everyday first baseman.

The Next Judge Contract, Right?

Not so fast. It’s easy to get caught in the “next-man-up” mentality when it comes to elite sports contracts (mostly because many leagues are operating this way), but the numbers tell a very different story here.

When we (at Spotrac) evaluate players for an extension or free agent contract, we focus solely on a player’s previous two seasons of production.

PLAYER	GP%	H/GM	RBI/GM	SO/GM	OPS	WOBP	ISO	WAR
Rafael Devers 21-22, BOS	91.67	1.11	0.68	0.87	0.885	0.38	0.24	4.13
Manny Machado 21-22, SD	93.52	1.09	0.69	0.78	0.867	0.37	0.22	5.9
Carlos Correa 21-22, MIN	87.65	1.08	0.55	0.83	0.840	0.37	0.19	6.76
Aaron Judge 21-22, NYY	94.14	1.1	0.75	1.09	1.016	0.43	0.32	8.15
AVERAGE	91.75	1.1	0.67	0.89	0.9	0.39	0.24	6.24
Pete Alonso 22-23, NYM	96.91	0.91	0.79	0.89	0.846	0.36	0.27	3.56

If we place Alonso’s last two seasons of work up against 4 recently signed contracts, we find a lot of comparable production - with the exception of Aaron Judge. Judge’s 2021-2022 output was simply unmatched, with Shohei Ohtani as the only player who can even hold a candle to the type of numbers you’re seeing here.

Is there a logical argument for Alonso to seek Aaron Judge’s $40M per year simply based on intangible value? Maybe. But the math certainly says otherwise.

So where does Pete’s value actually fall into place?

The Average Annual Value

Unfortunately, this metric still drives much of MLB, as it (usually) equates to the luxury tax salary associated with a contract. Right now, baseball has 10 position players operating at $30M or more on average, with Aaron Judge’s $40M the leader in the clubhouse. Just based on the eye test alone, we can assume Alsono will fit somewhere among this group.

Top 10 Average Annual Salaries (Position Players)

Aaron Judge, $40M
Mike Trout, $35.5M
Anthony Rendon, $35M
Francisco Lindor, $34.1M
Carlos Correa, $33.3M
Nolan Arenado, $32.5M
Corey Seager, $32.5M
Manny Machado, $31.8M
Rafael Devers, $31.3M
Mookie Betts, $30.4M

VIEW ALL

Utilizing the statistical comparison above, Alonso is producing about 4% lower than our four comparables, who carry a collectively combined AAV of $34.4M. This brings us to a $33M average salary for Alonso.

The Contract Length

Our contract length projections are determined based on the player’s age, versus the length/age of the four players he’s being compared to in our exercise. A few quick calculations brings us to a 9 year contract for Alonso, or an 8 year extension plus his final arbitration salary (something the Mets have been known to do in order to keep the Year 1 tax salary a little lighter on the books).

A 9 year contract will bring Alonso through his age 37 season, two years earlier than the Aaron Judge deal, which runs through his age 39 season. Could Pete squeeze another year or two out of the Mets here? Probably. Would teams like the Cubs and Giants tack on 1-2 years in a free agent offer next winter? Absolutely.

It should also be noted that Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor’s contract also runs through his age 37 season (2031).

The First Baseman Effect

Our math is telling us that Alonso should secure a 9 year, $297M contract extension this winter. Let’s round that up to $300M for good measure (it’s not our money).

Francisco Lindor signed a 10 year, $341M contract as a post arbitration extension (he played out his final year of arbitration before this deal kicked in). Lindor was one year younger when he penned this contract, so adjusting for that calculates to 9 years, $307Mt. In other words, these predicted numbers for Alonso appear to be in the ballpark from a Mets standpoint. But what about from a First Baseman standpoint?

Alonso projects to a near $22M salary for the upcoming 2024 season (based on arbitration calculations). Matt Olson (who just completed one of the most productive seasons a 1st Baseman has posted in years), will be playing on $22M a year for the next 6 seasons in Atlanta.

Freddie Freeman, a perennial MVP candidate, operated at $21M per year through his first five free agent seasons, then upped it to $27M per year for his next six.

Paul Goldschmidt, a 7X All star, 5X Silver Slugger, 4X Gold Glover, 1X MVP, took two years of free agency at $13M per year, then doubled it to $26M for his next 5 seasons.

These are the top numbers being handed out to the most productive First Basemen in baseball. If I told you that $27M per year is the current high AAV, is Alonso’s $33M projection now crazy? In this arena, the logical “next man up” mantra could be levied at $28M per year, or a 9 year, $250M+ extension.

It should also be noted that when comparing Alonso to these upper echelon first baseman from a more advanced standpoint (WOBP, WRC+, ISO, etc…), Alonso more or less sits in the middle of the pack.

Advanced Batting 1B Comparisons

Player	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	ISO
Freddie Freeman	.514	.383	142	.213
Paul Goldschmidt	.519	.385	142	.227
Matt Olson	.522	.367	135	.266
Pete Alonso	.528	.363	133	.277

So while math places Alonso with the Lindors, Devers, & to some degree Judges of the world from a productivity standpoint, MLB front offices are still “devaluing” contracts based on position. While shortstops & third basemen still have no trouble resetting their market on an annual basis, many of the other positions have settled into “value” lanes.

Predicted Outcome

Can Alonso buck this trend and separate himself from these mid-20 numbers, or will he need to conform with the positional lines and accept a deal that would be considered far below his expected value? Conventional 1st Base thinking says he plays out his $22M salary for 2024, then takes on another 8 years, $225M for the remainder of his career.

We’ll follow the breadcrumbs in Queens and predict a larger than normal number, where the Mets buy out his final year of arbitration, converting that price tag into a signing bonus, finalizing a total contract at $30M per year.

9 years, $270M from 2024-2032, including a $22M signing bonus

pete alonso

Predicting Every 2024 MLB Option Decision

Michael GinnittiOctober 13, 2023

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Mark Melancon (ARI, RP, 39)
$5M Mutual Option ($2M buyout)

Melancon signed a 2 year, $18m guarantee with Arizona after leading the league with 39 saves in 2021. He disappointed in 2022, missed all of 2023 with a shoulder injury and now enters his age 39 season. The Dbacks are likely to decline their half of the mutual option despite a considerable buyout.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: ARI declines their end of mutual option, pays $2m buyout

Miguel Castro (ARI, RP, 29)
$5M Vesting Option

Despite an inconsistent season, Castro surpassed the 60 appearances needed to trigger a $5m Vesting option for 2024. He led all NL relievers with 75 games, finishing 21 of those. The option would have converted to a $6m Player option with 40 games finished.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.7M
Result: 2024 contract guaranteed at $5M

ATLANTA BRAVES

Charlie Morton (ATL, SP, 40)
$20M Club Option (no buyout)

Morton returned to Atlanta on a 1 year, $20m contract with a matching $20m Club option for 2024. Again he provided stability as the Braves mid rotation anchor, starting 30+ games for the 3rd straight season. I doubt this is a piece they want to remove amidst their World Series contention window so this one should be pretty straight forward. If the 40-year-old confirms he wants to return for a 17th season, the Braves are almost certain to exercise the option. The price tag might feel uncomfortable but it’s in line with our system projections and similar options would likely require multi-year commitments.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $16.7M
Prediction: ATL exercises the $20M option

Eddie Rosario (ATL, OF, 32)
$9M Club Option (no buyout)

Rosario was a key addition that helped fuel the Braves 2021 World Series run. He tested free agency but ultimately re-signed a 2 year, $18m guarantee with a 2024 Club option at the same $9m AAV. Since that deal, Atlanta has made major commitments to Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris III and Sean Murphy. Most of their offensive core signed to multi-year deals which leaves limited room for offseason improvement on that side of the ball. To be clear, this is a great problem to have - but probably not for Rosario. Id’ be surprised if Atlanta, a team straddling the Luxury Tax threshold, chooses to dedicate $9m towards a platoon corner OF.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $6.4M
Prediction: ATL declines the $9M club option

Brad Hand (ATL, RP, 34)
$7M Mutual Option ($500,000 buyout)

Hand signed a one year deal with Colorado that included a 2024 Club option. The option could become Mutual if he was traded or finished 25 games. While he fell short on games (15), Hand still earned some leverage with the midseason trade to Atlanta. Ultimately, we doubt it matters. He’s not a traditional closer at this stage of his career and the Braves could look towards cheaper options.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.5M
Prediction: ATL declines their half of $7M mutual option

Collin McHugh (ATL, RP, 37)
$6M Club Option ($1M buyout)
Kirby Yates (ATL, RP, 37)
$5.75M Club Option ($1.25M buyout)

Both of these go in the same bucket as Brad Hand; useful veteran relievers with somewhat inflated team options that probably discourage a return. Perhaps Atlanta is underwhelmed by external options and decides to bring back one of the three but we projected all as doubtful to return on their respective options.

McHugh Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.5M
Yates Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $6.1M
Prediction: Both options declined, buyouts paid

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Austin Voth (BAL, RP, 32)
$2.45M Club Option (no buyout)

Voth was DFA'ed in early September putting his $2.45M option decision all but to rest this Fall.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Baltimore declines the option

BOSTON RED SOX

Justin Turner (BOS, 3B, 39)
$13.4M Player Option ($6.7M buyout)

This is one of the more interesting option decisions of the offseason. After the Dodgers declined his $16m Club option for 2023, Turner signed a 2 year, $21.7m guarantee with Boston. It paid $8.3m last season but he now controls a $13.4m Player option that carries a sizable buyout (50%). Entering his age 39 season, there’s probably two key considerations here: How many years does he intend to play AND is there motivation to play for a contender in those final seasons?

Turner could simply retire this offseason and earn $6.7m on his way out. If he plans to retire after 2024, he could just exercise the $13.4m Player option and finish his career in Boston. But if Turner intends to play beyond 2024, he might opt-out in search of another multi-year deal similar to his existing contract.

Financially speaking, the opt-out + buyout is his best option. Turner would enter a lackluster DH/1B free agent market coming off another productive season (.276 AVG / 23 HR / 96 RBI) and could realistically command a deal around 2 years, $15m. Accounting for the $6.7m buyout, the two year total would match his Boston deal ($21.7m).

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9M
Prediction: Turner declines the option, takes the buyout, and tests the open market

Corey Kluber (BOS, SP, 38)
$11M Club Option (no buyout)

This looks like the end of the road for the two-time Cy Young Award winner. Boston signed Kluber last offseason to a 1 year, $10m deal that included an $11m Club option for 2024. Simply put, he was one of the worst starters in MLB through June before finishing the season on the IL. Perhaps Kluber gets another shot if he’s healthy but no chance the Red Sox exercise this option.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Boston declines the $11M option

Joely Rodriguez (BOS, RP, 32)
$4.25M Club Option ($500k buyout)

Rodriguez missed most of 2023 due to injury, making just 11 appearances for the Red Sox this season. He’ll be back on the open market this winter.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Boston declines the $4.25M option

CHICAGO CUBS

Marcus Stroman (CHC, SP, 33)
$21M Player Option

Stroman was among the crowded group of SPs available in 2022 free agency. He surprisingly signed with the rebuilding Cubs, settling for a short term deal that paid $50m across the first two seasons but provided a player option for 2024. That option vested at $21m but could have escalated to $25m based on innings pitched in 2022 and 2023 (conditions not met).

At one point it appeared obvious Stroman would opt-out following an All-Star worthy first half but he completely fell apart as the calendar flipped to July. He’s hinted at a desire to stay and potential extension but the Cubs reportedly are not interested. Now it seems he’ll likely opt-in to the final year and hope to restore some value ahead of 2024 free agency.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15.6M
Prediction: Stroman exercises the $21M option

Kyle Hendricks (CHC, SP, 34)
$16M Club Option ($1.5M buyout)

This was the final guaranteed year of a 4 year, $55M arbitration extension that includes a $16M Club option for 2024. The option had vesting potential if he was top 3 in the 2020 Cy Young vote but Hendricks finished 9th.

His struggles in 2021 and 2022 made this option a longshot entering the season, but Hendricks’ bounceback performance will now force a difficult decision for the Cubs. The Stroman/Hendricks decisions are further complicated by multi-year commitments made to Jameson Taillon (4yr, $68M) and Drew Smyly (2yr, $19M) last offseason. The team probably anticipated Stroman and/or Hendricks being off the roster starting 2024. Instead, with Justin Steele their starting five might already be in place. It’s hard to suggest that's a bad problem but the Cubs need to find some runway for their younger arms.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.5M
Prediction: Chicago declines the option

Cody Bellinger (CHC, OF/1B, 28)
$12M Mutual Option ($5.5M buyout)

The former RoY and MVP could add Comeback Player of the Year to his accolades after a bounceback season in Chicago. The historic start to his career earned him $11.5m in 2020 and set a salary record for first-time eligible arbitration players. It put Bellinger on pace to earn $44.6m across his first three years of arbitration eligibility despite the disastrous seasons that followed. The Dodgers non-tendered him last offseason to avoid paying the projected $18m salary in his final year of eligibility (Super Two status).

Bellinger subsequently signed a one-year ‘prove it’ deal with the Cubs. The $12m contract included a matching $12m Mutual option or $5.5m buyout for 2024. There’s no doubt Bellinger will decline his half of this but it’s less certain that he actually changes teams. Despite being one of the most coveted assets at the trade deadline, Chicago held him, and there seems to be mutual interest regarding a possible extension. If not, Bellinger should command one of the largest free agent contracts this offseason.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $22.5M
Prediction: Bellinger declines the option

Yan Gomes (CHC, C, 36)
$6M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Gomes served as the backup catcher in his first season with the Cubs but his role entering 2023 was uncertain after Willson Contreras departed to St. Louis in free agency. He ended up earning the lion's share of playing time on defense (55%) which helped facilitate a productive (.267 AVG / 10 HR / 63 RBI) line on offense. Now the Cubs hold a $6m Club option that would be a bargain if Gomes can come anywhere close to repeating that production. Chicago will likely exercise the option and pair him with Miguel Amaya for one more season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $10M
Prediction: Chicago exercises the option

Brad Boxberger (CHC, RP, 26)
$2.45M Club Option ($800,000 buyout)

Boxberger only saw action in 11 games this season due to arm injury, so it’s unlikely the Cubs will rush to add guarantees to this situation anytime soon.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Cubs decline the option

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Liam Hendriks (CHW, RP, 35)
$15M Club Option ($15M buyout - deferred)

Hendriks remarkable comeback from cancer treatment was derailed by Tommy John surgery in August, another discouraging injury that could force him to miss most or all of 2024. This was technically the final guaranteed year of his deal but fortunately his 2024 total is ‘guaranteed’ in the form of a uniquely structured Club option. The $15m option carries a matching $15m buyout that would pay $1.5m annually over 10 years.

The White Sox could decline and spread out the cost to free up money next year but they've already removed over $75m from an Opening Day payroll that hovered around $190m in consecutive seasons. It's difficult to imagine this team contending in 2024 so new GM Chris Getz might be encouraged to clear this payroll next season rather than deferring into future years.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.7M
Prediction: Chicago exercises the option

Tim Anderson (CHW, SS, 31)
$14M Club Option ($1M buyout)

At one point his 6 year, $25m pre-arbitration extension was considered one of the best value deals in all of baseball. Anderson led the league with a (.335) batting average in 2019, won a Silver Slugger in 2020 and added consecutive All-Star appearances in 2021 and 2022. Chicago exercised their $12.5m Club option last season and control a similar $14m Club option for 2024.

With a shifting contention window and Anderson coming off the worst season of his career, the White Sox probably want to move on. Not to mention they’d simultaneously clear a path for top prospect (SS) Colson Montgomery who could debut in 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5.1M
Prediction: Chicago declines the option

Mike Clevinger (CHW, SP, 33)
$12M Mutual Option ($4M buyout)

This situation is hard to read. Chicago waived Clevinger in August but he cleared and stayed with the organization. It was a cost savings transaction but could have hinted at plans to decline their end of a $12m Mutual option for 2024. White Sox manager Pedro Grifol expressed hope for a return but we’re skeptical. Given his 2023 performance and team context, Clevinger should be tempted to reenter the free agent market. There are some off field concerns that could complicate his value but we think he’ll command a multi-year guarantee regardless. At minimum, he should easily surpass the $8m he’d be walking away from.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $13.6M
Prediction: Clevinger declines the option

CINCINNATI REDS

Joey Votto (CIN, 1B, 40)
$20M Club Option ($7M buyout)

Votto just completed the final guaranteed season of the massive 10 yr, $225m extension he signed way back in 2012. Now Cincinnati holds a $20m Club option or $7m buyout for 2024. It sounds like the 40-year old plans to play an 18th season but it might not come via this option. Christian Encarnacion-Strand is their future at 1B and the Reds should look to give him a full season of reps to build on his strong debut. That could be hard to do with a legacy player making $20m still in the fold. But Votto is an institution in Cincinnati and they shouldn't rush him out the door, the option salary just doesn't align with his current value. Assuming there's mutual interest in a return, the Reds could decline + buyout ($7m) then hand him something around 1 year, $7m in a lesser role.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5.5M
Prediction: Cincinnati declines the option

Curt Casali (CIN, C, 35)
$2.5M Club Option ($750k buyout)

A foot injury and a platoon role afforded Casali only 80 ABs in 2023, putting his $2.5M option on notice. Though it’s not a daunting salary for a team with very few veteran guarantees on its payroll.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Cincinnati exercises the option

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS

No option candidates.

COLORADO ROCKIES

No option candidates.

DETROIT TIGERS

Miguel Cabrera (DET, DH/1B, 40)
$30M Club Option ($8M buyout)

After consecutive MVP awards in 2012 and 2013, Cabrera signed a massive 8 year, $248 million extension (starting 2016) days ahead of the 2014 season. The deal included individual $30m Club options for 2024 and 2025 that could vest with a top 10 MVP finish the previous year. Cabrera already announced his retirement following the 2023 season but these options were never in play from the start. He hasn’t received MVP votes since 2016 and would be entering his age 41 season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: N/A
Prediction: Retirement, Hall of Fame

Javier Baez (DET, SS, 31)
4 year, $98M Player Opt-Out

Baez was one of four big names at shortstop competing for free agent money in 2022. Corey Seager (10yr, $325M) signed a fully guaranteed deal but Carlos Correa (3yr, $105.3m), Baez (6yr, $140M) and Trevor Story (6yr, $140M) settled for contracts that included player opt-outs in 2023, 2024 and 2026 respectively. Correa capitalized on that strategy last offseason inking a 6 year, $200m deal despite a market including Trea Turner (11yr, $300M), Xander Bogaerts (11yr, $280M) and Dansby Swanson (7yr, $177M).

Now Baez is next in line with an opportunity to opt-out of the remaining 4 years, $98M left on his deal. It’s been reported he’s at least considering the opt-out which might come as a surprise following the worst full season of his career. We’re skeptical he’d match or exceed the total forfeited making it unlikely, but Baez would re-enter free agency as easily the most accomplished player available at the position - way ahead of other options like Brandon Crawford and Amed Rosario.

The offense has hit a cliff but he’s still excellent defensively. There would certainly be interest if he became available, just not at a $100m price tag. Perhaps the best-case scenario here is a trade where Detroit retains a chunk of the remaining contract (assuming no opt-out).

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $11.7M
Prediction: Baez opts-in

Eduardo Rodriguez (DET, SP, 31)
3 year, $49M Player Opt-Out

Rodriguez just finished the second season of a 5 year, $77m contract but now has the option to opt-out and bypass the final three years of that deal. His choice should be simple considering he’ll easily command north of the $49m total left on the existing contract. We project his value lands somewhere between Joe Musgrove (5yr, $100m) and Kevin Gausman (5yr, $110m).

Rodriguez vetoed a deadline trade to the Dodgers citing his “desire to remain closer to family on the east coast”. Perhaps it was a signal towards intentions of staying in Detroit, but that narrative is complicated considering a ‘family situation’ forced him to spend almost 3 months away from the team in 2022. If a reunion is actually on the table, it’ll have to come via free agency. Tigers president Scott Harris already said the organization won’t negotiate an extension and will instead wait for Rodriguez to exercise his opt-out. Detroit has exclusive negotiating rights until that happens. If they do want Rodriguez back, it’s puzzling that they’re unwilling to discuss a new deal - unless both sides already know where this is headed.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $20.5M (5 years, $102M)
Prediction: Rodriguez will opt-out

Carson Kelly (DET, C, 29)
$2.5m Club Option

Kelly was picked up in August after a swift DFA by Arizona. There’s probably not enough meat on the bone here to justify a $2.5M salary next season, even if his 2-year valuation places him higher.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.3M
Prediction: Detroit declines the option

HOUSTON ASTROS

Hector Neris (HOU, RP, 34)
$8.5M Player Option ($1M buyout)

Neris came to Houston in 2022 on a free agent deal. The Astros brought him in as a direct replacement for Kendall Graveman who signed a 3 year, $24m contract with the White Sox. Houston was unwilling to go beyond two years for any reliever and landed Neris on a 2 year, $17m guarantee that included a third year Club option at the same $8.5m valuation. That option converted to a Player option after Neris appeared in 110 games across both seasons. A critical piece of the Astros dominant bullpen, his value has only increased since signing and we fully expect an opt-out in search of a multi-year guarantee.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $7.6M
Prediction: Neris opts out, seeking a multi-year deal

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

No option candidates.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

Eduardo Escobar (LAA, 3B, 35)
$9M Club Option ($500k buyout)

Escobar was brought in on a 2 year, $20m guarantee after the Angels mistakenly self-assessed themselves as contenders. Now they’re tearing things down and will look to shed payroll wherever possible. This is one of those obvious spots and there is no chance they exercise his $9m Club option for 2024. Escobar can still provide value in the right situation and should find another deal, especially considering the 3B free agent market.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5M
Prediction: LAA declines the $9M option

Aaron Loup (LAA, RP, 36)
$7.5M Club Option ($2M buyout)

LA brought in Loup to be the everyday setup reliever, and he hung around well in 2022 - but fell off of a cliff this past season. He’s a plug and play reliever at best going forward.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: LAA declines the $7.5M option

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Lance Lynn (LAD, SP, 37)
$18M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Lynn was awful in Chicago and only marginally better after being traded to Los Angeles. He accepted the trade despite including the Dodgers on his no-trade list, which some players use to leverage future guarantees. Lynn could have approved the deal to LAD under conditions they exercise the 2024 Club option. We doubt that happened here considering his miserable first half performance. The Dodgers have questions at SP so perhaps they renegotiate, but not at this salary.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $8M
Prediction: LA declines the $18M option

Max Muncy (LAD, INF, 33)
$14M Club Option (no buyout)

Muncy posted another big season, raking 36 HRs, with an .808 OPS to boot. He’s a $15M player in our system, so a $14M option salary seems about right.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15.7M
Prediction: LA exercises the $14M option

Joe Kelly (LAD, RP, 36)
$9.5M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Kelly was acquired from the White Sox prior to this year’s deadline, but spent a month in IL due to arm issues. His value has been cut in half over the past two seasons.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.4M
Prediction: LA declines the $9.5M option

Blake Treinen (LAD, OF/1B, 36)
$7M Club Option (no buyout)

Shoulder injuries/surgery derailed each of the past two seasons for Treinen. He’s a minimum player as he rehabs himself back to full health.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: LA declines the $7M option

Daniel Hudson (LAD, RP, 37)
$6.5M Club Option (no buyout)

Knee injuries kept Hudson on the shelf for half of 2022 and all of 2023. He’s a minimum player as he rehabs himself back to full health.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: LA declines the $6.5M option

Alex Reyes (LAD, RP, 29)
$3M Club Option (no buyout)

LA took a flier on Reyes, who missed all of 2022 with a shoulder injury, but went on to miss all of 2023 with a torn labrum as well. He’s a minimum player until he can prove he can stay healthy for a season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: LA declines the $3M option

MIAMI MARLINS

Josh Bell (MIA, 1B, 31)
$16.5M Player Option

Bell probably can’t beat a $16.5M per year average on the open market - but he probably finds a total value guarantee north of it. With that said, Bell’s season really turned a corner when he joined Miami.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $14.5M
Prediction: Bell exercises the $16.5M player option

Johnny Cueto (MIA, SP, 38)
$10.5M Club Option ($2.5M buyout)

Cueto posted a 6+ ERA and a minus WAR in 2023, putting his $10.5M option on notice. Is he in decline, or were injuries to blame for the struggles? He’s only 1 year removed from a 3.4 WAR campaign.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.5M
Prediction: Miami declines the $10.5M option

Jorge Soler (MIA, OF, 32)
$9M Player Option

Soler put together a big power season (24 2B, 36 HR, .853 OPS), setting the 31-year-old up for a multi-year guarantee this winter.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $14M
Prediction: Soler declines the $9M option

Matt Barnes (MIA, RP, 34)
$9M CLUB Option ($2.75M buyout)

Barnes only made 24 appearances due to injury, and has struggled to remain consistent for the better part of two seasons now.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.8M
Prediction: Miami declines the $9M option

Jon Berti (MIA, INF, 34)
$3.625m Club Option ($25k buyout)

Berti remains a do-it-all player for Miami, and could be headed toward Arbitration 3 this winter with a very nice resume under his belt. Instead, the Marlins should find plenty of value in his $3.6M salary for 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $7.6M
Prediction: Miami exercises the $3.625M option

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Mark Canha (MIL, OF, 35)
$11.5M Club Option ($2M buyout)

Canha was exceptional for Milwaukee (120 OPS+ in 50 games) after treading water with the Mets to start the 2023 campaign. His $11.5M option is very much a possibility for Milwaukee, but a multi-year contract extension could be as well.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $8.5M
Prediction: Milwaukee exercises the $11.5M option

Wade Miley (MIL, SP, 37)
$10m Mutual Option ($1M buyout)

Miley's put together one of his more efficient (and healthy) seasons of late (3.14 ERA, 2.52 WAR in 23 starts). The almost 37-year-old seems a shoe-in to exercise his end of this $10M, will Milwaukee do the same?

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $8M
Prediction: Milwaukee declines the $10M option

Andrew Chafin (MIL, RP, 34)
$7.25M Club Option ($750k buyout)

Chafin was acquired at the deadline from Arizona, but struggled to keep runners off base down the stretch for Milwaukee. He’s about a $3.5M player in our system right now, so a leap to $7.25M for 2024 seems pricey.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $3.5M
Prediction: Milwaukee declines the $7.25M option

Justin Wilson (MIL, RP, 36)
$2.5M Club Option (no buyout)

Wilson’s 2023 was basically a wash as he recovered from Tommy John surgery, then battled a lat issue down the stretch.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: Milwaukee declines the $2.5M option

MINNESOTA TWINS

Jorge Polanco (MIN, 3B, 29)
$10.5M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Polanco’s production has declined a bit in each of the past two seasons, but his value was on display down the stretch and into Minnesota’s postseason run. His $10.5M option aligns well with a current $11M valuation, making this a 50/50 call for the Twins.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $11M
Prediction: Minnesota exercises the $10.5M option

Max Kepler (MIN, OF, 31)
$10M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Kepler posted career highs in 2023 and was a major reason for the Twins 2023 success. A $1.5M raise for 2024 seems worthy.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15M
Prediction: Minnesota exercises the $10M option

NEW YORK METS

Omar Narvaez (NYM, C, 32)
$7M Player Option

Narvaez was reduced to a role player in New York with the emergence of Francisco Alvarez, sinking his current valuation down to near $3M. Opting in seems a no brainer for him, but he’s a trade candidate this winter as well.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.8M
Prediction: Narvaez opts in to the $7M

Adam Ottavino (NYM, RP, 38)
$6.75M Player Option

The almost 38-year-old saw action in 65 games last season, and should be back in the fold for a middle reliever spot in 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $4.8M
Prediction: Ottavino opts in to the $6.75M

Brooks Raley (NYM, RP, 36)
$6.5M Club Option ($1.25M buyout)

The lefty reliever carries a $7M valuation into the winter, and his $6.5M option represents a $2M raise over last season’s compensation.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $7M
Prediction: The Mets exercise Raley’s $6.5M option

NEW YORK YANKEES

No option candidates

OAKLAND A’s

Drew Rucinski (OAK, SP, 35)
$5M Club Option (no buyout)

Rucinski gave up 18 earned runs in 18 innings before hitting the shelf with an MCL sprain. The A's have a chance to pay him $5M or nothing this winter. Let's all guess which one they'll choose.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum
Prediction: Oakland declines the option

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Scott Kingery (PHI, 2B, 30)
$13M Club Option ($1M buyout)

Kingery hasn't played a meaningful game for the Phillies since the 2020 season. This one is already stamped in red.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: Minimum/Minor
Prediction: Philly declines the $13M option

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Jarlin Garcia (PIT, RP, 31)
$3.25M Club Option (no buyout)

Garcia dealt with a nerve issue in his arm for the 2023 season, all but guaranteeing that Pittsburgh takes the free out on his club option this winter. Especially with no buyout attached to the decision.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $1M
Prediction: Pittsburgh declines the $3.25M option

SAN DIEGO PADRES

Nick Martinez (SDP, SP, 33)
2 years, $32M Club Option + conditions

The Padres have the opportunity to lock in Martinez at $16M per year over the next two seasons this fall. If they decline, Martinez garners back to back $8M player options instead. In both cases, the options must be decided on together (so 2 for $32M or 2 for $16M). While he posted career highs across the board in 2023, it’s still unlikely that San Diego locks in $32M on their end, putting the decision in Martinez’ hands.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9M
Prediction: Both sides decline the options

Michael Wacha (SDP, SP, 33)
2 years, $32M Club Option + conditions

The Padres have the opportunity to lock in Wacha for the next 2 years at $32M with an exercise this fall. One can argue he just posted his best overall season to date, and now carries an $18M valuation in our system. If San Diego declines, the scenario converts to a 3 year, $18.5M player option that Wacha is sure to opt out of.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $18M
Prediction: San Diego exercises the 2 years, $32M

Seth Lugo (SDP, SP, 34)
$7.5M Player Option

Finally got a chance to start exclusively, and rewarded San Diego for it (115 ERA+, 1.81 WAR). The almost 34-year-old holds a near $10M valuation in our system, and will likely seek a multi-year guarantee this winter.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $9.8M
Prediction: Lugo declines the $7.5M option

Matt Carpenter (SDP, DH/1B, 38)
$5.5M Player Option

Carpenter didn’t come close to recreating the magic he created with the 2022 Yankees, making his $5.5M player option for 2024 a bit of a problem for the Padres. The almost 38-year-old will lock in this payday as quickly as possible.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2M
Prediction: Carpenter exercises the $5.5M option

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

Michael Conforto (SFG, OF, 31)
$18M Player Option

If the goal for Conforto was to prove he can be the player he was before his hamstring injuries, he did exactly that. His 2023 numbers finished up nearly identical to his 2021 production. Did he do enough to warrant a multi-year guarantee this winter? Probably, but the per year price tag won’t look a heck of a lot different than the $18M salary he needs to decide on with this option.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $16.1M
Prediction: Conforto opts out for a multi-year guarantee

Sean Manaea (SFG, SP/RP, 32)
$15M Player Option

Manaea was a bit of a jack of all trades, master of none, for the Giants in 2023, but he proved valuable from a reliability level down the stretch. $15M seems like a nice payday for him next season.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $12M
Prediction: Manaea exercises the $15M salary

Ross Stripling (SFG, SP, 34)
$15M Player Option

Stripling posted his worst statistical season in 3 years, and seems a lock to opt in to the $15M player option for 2024. A nagging back issue should be cause for concern going forward.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $12.4M
Prediction: Stripling exercises the $15M salary

Alex Cobb (SFG, SP, 36)
$10M Club Option ($2M buyout)

Cobb has been one of the better values in baseball for the past 3 seasons (combined 6.55 WAR), so a $1M raise from $9M to $10M for 2024 is well within reason for San Francisco.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $15.4M
Prediction: San Francisco exercises the $10M option

SEATTLE MARINERS

No option candidates

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

No option candidates

TAMPA BAY RAYS

No option candidates

TEXAS RANGERS

Max Scherzer (TEX, SP, 39)
$43,333,333 Player Option

Scherzer has already consented to opting in on this massive salary as part of the move from New York this August. That was of course going to be the case in any scenario however. The good news? New York is paying $20,833,334 of this salary, leaving a much more tenable $22,500,000 for the Rangers to take on in 2024.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $31.5M
Prediction: Scherzer exercises the $43.3M option

Andrew Heaney (TEX, SP, 33)
$13M Player Option ($500k buyout)

Heaney couldn’t match his strong 2022 campaign, but still proved to be viable and worthy of a rotation spot down the stretch. He seems a shoe-in to accept the $13M player option, but his calculated value does align nicely with that price point, so venturing into the open market to seek a multi-year guarantee isn’t out of the question here either.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $13.7M
Prediction: Heaney declines for a longer guarantee

Jose Leclerc (TEX, RP, 30)
$6.25M Club Option ($500k buyout)

Leclerc has blossomed into a devastating back end reliever for the Rangers, who exercised his $6M option for 2023 with ease, and should have no trouble tossing in a $250,000 raise for 2024 to do so again.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $10.6M
Prediction: Texas exercises the $6.25M option

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Whit Merrifield (TOR, 2B, 35)
$18M Mutual Option ($500k buyout)

Merrifield posted nearly identical back to back seasons for Toronto in 2022 & 2023, but that production doesn’t approach a potential $18M salary for 2024. Toronto is largely expected to decline their end of this option, placing Merrifield back on the open market with a $6.5M valuation - not far off from the salary he just finished out in 2023 ($6.75M).

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $6.5M
Prediction: Toronto declines the $18M option

Chad Green (TOR, RP, 33)
Multiple Conditions

It’s complicated. First and foremost, Toronto has the ability to exercise a 3 year, $27M extension at $9M per year through 2026. That seems highly unlikely right now. If/when declined, the scenario converts to a 1 year, $6.25M player option for Green - which seems very likely to be exercised. If it’s not, Toronto then has the ability to exercise a 2 year, $21M extension at $10.5M per year - again, very unlikely. Green’s recovery from Tommy John should have him available by the start of the 2024 campaign, but he’ll be overpriced on that $6.25M salary if not.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.4M
Prediction: Green exercises his $6.25M player option

Yimi Garcia (TOR, RP, 33)
$6M Vested Option

His 2024 option was originally valued at $5m with a $1m buyout. Garcia needed 60 IP or appearances in 2023, OR 110 IP or appearances in 2022-23 combined to trigger a $6m Vesting option in his contract. He met all conditions and is guaranteed the full value of the previous option and buyout.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $5.8M
Result: $6M option easily vested

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Victor Robles (WSH, OF, 27)
$3.3M Club Option (no buyout)

Despite a hopeful 2022 campaign, an injury plagued 2023 probably sealed the deal on Robles’ future in Washington. His $3.3M option isn’t overly expensive (especially in comparison to a $2.4M projection in arbitration next season), but the Nationals are likely to upgrade here no matter what.

Spotrac Estimated Market Value: $2.4M (Arbitration 3)
Prediction: Option declined, player non-tendered

NBA Central Division Rotation and Roster Questions

Keith SmithOctober 12, 2023

The NBA preseason is here! Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so. We’ve already covered the Atlantic Division, Southeast Division, Southwest Division and Pacific Division teams.

Chicago Bulls

Who starts at point guard?

The Bulls will be without Lonzo Ball for the entirety of the 2023-24 season. Ball is recovering from another knee surgery, but this time there is optimism he’ll make it back for the start of next season.

Until then, Chicago needs someone to play point guard.

The lead guard position for the Bulls doesn’t have to be your traditional playmaker. Billy Donovan runs a lot of his offense through DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic. Ayo Dosunmu started for most of last season, with Patrick Beverley taking over after being added during buyout season. Neither of them is really a pure point guard.

Dosunmu is back this season, as is Coby White, after both young guards re-signed with the Bulls this summer. Chicago also added Jevon Carter in free agency. Alex Caruso (who has shifted away from point guard reps over the years) and Carlik Jones are also returning.

We can probably eliminate the latter two from this competition. Caruso is the Bulls version of a utility player in baseball. He’ll play a lot by playing a little bit of everything. Jones is coming off an impressive summer with South Sudan at the FIBA World Cup, but he remains very unproven at the NBA level. He’s still a developmental project for Chicago.

That leaves a three-way tussle between Dosunmu, White and Carter. All have reasons to believe in them, while also having reasons to question them.

Dosunmu has started 91 of his first 157 NBA games. He’s got the experience alongside DeRozan and LaVine. He knows his role is to defend, function as a secondary or tertiary creator and to make shots when open. It’s that last part where things went sideways last season. After hitting an exciting 37.6% from deep as a rookie, Dosunmu fell off to a terrible 31.2% in his second year. If he’s not making shots, he can’t play regularly. Someone needs to open the floor for DeRozan and LaVine.

The potential good news? As a freshman at Illinois, Dosunmu hit 35.2% of his triples, before falling off to just 29.6% as a sophomore. In his junior year, Dosunmu bounced back to hit 38.6% from behind the arc. If he can experience a similar bounce-back as a third-year of NBA play, Dosunmu might win back his starting job.

White got the start in the Bulls first preseason game. He’s 23 years old now and has four NBA seasons under his belt. White has also been pretty durable, so he has a good amount of experience.

The downside? White’s role has been all over the place in his four-year career. As a rookie, he was an on-ball scoring option off the bench. He was inefficient, but that’s true of most rookies. As a second-year player, White was the team’s starting point guard. He showed signs of improving his playmaking ability, while his efficiency took the expected upturn.

With Ball joining the team, White went back to the bench role in Year 3. He was even more efficient, but his playing time and number of shots both took a marked downturn. Year 4 was easily White’s most efficient scoring season, but he played and shot the least amount in his NBA career.

Now, the door seems open for White to take back the starting point guard spot. His shooting from behind the arc has stabilized. He hits for a solid percentage on a pretty good volume of three-pointers. White is also the best at creating his own shots, or shots for others, out of the threesome competing for the starting gig.

The one thing Donovan and staff will be looking to see from White is better defense. As reserve, some of his “Ole!” style of swiping for a steal and then waiting for an outlet pass, can be overlooked. A lot of scoring guards play that way off the bench. As a starter, White needs to freelance less and he has to be competitive. The tools are there, he just has to harness them.

Harnessing defensive ability is no problem for Carter. He’s one of the best on-ball pests in the NBA. Few players are as adept at picking up full court and harassing an opposing ballhandler. Carter isn’t a steal merchant. He’s just always there, a constant annoyance for the guy he’s guarding.

Carter is also the best shooter of this group, as he’s a tick under 40% from deep for his career. Carter’s entire NBA run has also been as a spot-up guy, playing off teammates. That’s a good skill for Chicago, considering DeRozan and LaVine will run the show there.

The challenge with Carter starting is that he hasn’t done it much. He’s started 48 games in five years, and 39 of those starts came last season. That might be one of those situations where we don’t know how a guy will hold up until he gets a shot, but it’s enough of a question that the Bulls will think about it. There’s also the fact that both White and Dosunmu have some organizational cache built up, which matters more than many think.

The guess here is that White takes the job. As long as he defends enough, he should be able to keep it. But Dosunmu has started as recently as last year, and Carter is around. None of the three should feel overly comfortable, even if they start on opening night. And that’s probably best for the Bulls for keeping all of them on their toes.

Who is the backup power forward?

Patrick Williams is going to start at the four again. That’s fine, even if he might still ideally be more of a wing. But Chicago does enough with him, DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine switching and matching up defensively, that it probably doesn’t matter.

What does matter is who is backing up Williams. That spot seems to be wide open.

Last season, Billy Donovan picked from a grab bag of Javonte Green, Derrick Jones Jr. and the decidedly not-a-four Alex Caruso behind Williams. Caruso is back, but he recently spoke that playing the four takes a toll on him and it’s something he and Bulls would like to avoid, given his overall importance to the roster.

This year the backup minutes at the four will probably fall mostly to Torrey Craig. And that’s probably a big upgrade over last season, given Caruso will be able to contribute more behind DeRozan and Lavine.

Craig was one of the better value signings of the summer, as the Bulls got him on a two-year, veteran minimum deal. Although Craig is a prototypical small forward, he’s logged plenty of time as a small-ball power forward. Last season might have been an outlier, as Craig hit 39.5% of his threes. If that repeats, Chicago will be thrilled with Craig as the ideal Williams backup.

What makes Craig ideal is the way the Bulls play. As mentioned above, they kind of treat Williams, DeRozan and LaVine as a trio on defense. Williams takes the best perimeter guy, with DeRozan and LaVine taking the lesser threats. Even when the opponent plays with two bigs, Williams is generally still on the best perimeter option, with DeRozan guarding up a spot.

Craig can do what Williams does on defense, albeit with a bit less size. If he’s making shots at a nearly 40% clip, that’s a pretty good replication of Williams too.

The one challenge comes if there are injuries elsewhere. If a wing goes down, and Craig is pressed into service there, then there isn’t a good option behind Williams on the roster. That could be a place where some of the point guard depth is traded to plug that hole. Something to keep an eye on into the middle of the season.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Who is the fifth starter?

Assuming Jarrett Allen’s ankle injury doesn’t keep him out for too long, the Cavs have four of five starters set. Allen will be joined by Evan Mobley up front, and Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland are the starting backcourt. It’s that middle spot at small forward that is up for grabs.

Last season, the fifth spot was split somewhat equally between Caris LeVert and Isaac Okoro, with a sprinkling of Dean Wade mixed in. All three are back in Cleveland, along with Max Strus, who has started 41 playoff games over each of the last two postseasons.

LeVert and Wade are probably out of the mix to start. LeVert has found a really good role coming off the Cavaliers bench. He gets to handle the ball a lot in that role, and can kind of do his thing as a primary option on the second unit. Wade isn’t really a small forward, and he might find far more usage as a backup big option. The Cavs are a little light behind Allen and Mobley, which could press Wade into option up front.

That leaves Okoro vs Strus. Okoro has the organizational cache. He’s been there for three years, he’s a slightly better defender (with the tools to be a much better defender) and he did make shots last year. But it’s that last part where things swing decidedly toward Strus.

Okoro has experience a steady upward climb in his shooting, going from 29% to 35% to 36.3% year over year. Strus, on the other hand, was at 41% and 35% from deep the last two seasons, on a volume well over double that of Okoro’s.

If the Cavs are hellbent on opening up the floor more, they’ll start Strus. He simply carries gravity that Okoro doesn’t. Defenses bend towards Strus, whereas they flex away from Okoro. If Cleveland stays with the status quo, and wants the better defender on the floor, they’ll stick with Okoro.

One last consideration: Strus came to Cleveland via a four-year, $62.3 million sign-and-trade. Okoro is in the final year of his rookie scale deal. Strus can fit on a roster featuring Okoro or not, but the contracts could be a sign that Cleveland is moving away from the former fifth overall pick.

Who wins the final roster spot?

As of this writing, Cleveland has 14 players signed to standard contracts. They have four players battling in training camp for that final spot, assuming the Cavaliers fill it at all.

Of that group, Sharife Cooper might have a slight edge, and it’s got little to do with production. Instead, it’s about position.

Cooper is a point guard. As it stands right now, Cleveland is really light at the point guard position. Darius Garland is an All-Star-level guy, but there just isn’t a lot behind him.

Ricky Rubio remains away from the team, as he continues to work on a personal issue that arose over the summer. The Cavs have expressed support for Rubio and are giving him all the time and space he needs. That’s exactly the way it should be.

But that means someone has to step up behind Garland in the interim. Ty Jerome will get the first shot. He’s played as a point guard plenty in his career, even if he’s more of a combo guard. Considering guys like Donovan Mitchell and Caris LeVert will have the ball plenty when Jerome is on the floor, the fifth-year Virginia product should be just fine.

But that leaves the third point guard spot open. Craig Porter is on a two-way deal, and he’ll get the first crack at any available minutes. He was a Summer League standout, but had exactly one season of high-volume production at Wichita State. He’s got a lot to prove, and a lot of G League time is necessary.

And that brings us back to Cooper. He’s small and his NBA experience is negligible, but Cooper has stood out in the G League. If Cleveland needs someone until Rubio is back, converting Cooper to a standard non-guaranteed contract, is probably the way forward for some additional point guard depth.

Detroit Pistons

How do they get Ausar Thompson minutes?

The Pistons are sending signs that this question could be resolved by opening night. Monty Williams seems likely to shoehorn Thompson into the rotation, including in a possible starting spot.

You read that right. Despite Detroit having a lot of varying talent on the wing, Thompson might start right out of the gate.

It was one preseason game, and one where some regulars were out, but Thompson started and held his own. He didn’t shoot it well, and that’s going to be a major question for him until it isn’t, but Thompson did a lot of everything else. He scored 12 points, grabbed 10 rebounds, dished out six assists and blocked a shot.

That production mirrored what Thompson did in four Summer League games. He also displayed that chaotic energy on defense, where he’s kind of everywhere all at once. That was also a carryover from Summer League.

But when games matter, is Thompson really going to start over established guys like Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks or Joe Harris? Is he going to leapfrog young players like Jaden Ivey or Isaiah Livers?

It seems like the answer is: kind of.

Bogdanovic is still going to play, and he’s probably going to start. Cade Cunningham has the most upside, but Bogdanovic is still Detroit’s best player. Burks is going to play, and there should be room for both him and Thompson in the rotation. What happens with Harris is really interesting. He’s the best pure shooter on the roster, and the Pistons can use that skill. But he’s on an expiring deal and probably not a part of the future in Detroit. If he’s out of the rotation to open the year, it wouldn’t be a surprise.

The Pistons are making noise about playing Ivey off the bench, despite the fact that he started 73 games as a rookie. Maybe it’s a way to make sure Ivey still gets on-ball reps with Cunningham back. Maybe it’s all subterfuge and he’ll start on opening night. For now, it’s something to watch. And Livers seems more like he’s in the frontcourt mix as a small-ball four than he is a part of the wing rotation.

Thompson is overflowing with upside. Detroit probably isn’t going to be very good this season. That combination necessitates him playing as much as he can handle. And it seems like the Pistons will make sure that happens.

Who gets the third two-way spot?

We’ll keep this relatively short. Detroit has filled two of their two-way spots with undrafted Malcolm Cazalon and the returning Jared Rhoden. Both of those guys are wings, which makes for an interesting competition for the third two-way spot.

Buddy Boeheim is back after being on a two-way last year, but he’s another wing. Same is true of Stanley Umude, who did a 10-day run with Detroit last year. Tosan Evbuomwan is also in camp, and he’s a bigger wing, but he’s still another wing.

That kind of seems like the competition could be between big man Jontay Porter, who has done a few different NBA stints, and guard Zavier Simpson.

Porter still has some of that prospect tag attached to him. He’ll turn 24 in late-November, but there’s still intrigue with a near 7-footer who can step out and shoot it some, while rebounding and blocking shots on the other end.

Simpson is a G League veteran, and he was terrific in the minors last year. His lack of size seems to be all that is holding him back from landing a full NBA spot. If the Pistons want some additional point guard depth, Simpson would be nice to have on a two-way deal.

We don’t really have a prediction here. Evbuomwan is probably the most interesting player, given he’s still pretty unknown. Porter probably has the most upside, while Simpson is probably the most ready-to-contribute guy in the mix. Let the best man win.

Indiana Pacers

Who starts?

We can ink Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner into the Pacers starting lineup. That means the poles are taken care of. In between the point and the center, everything seems to be up for grabs.

Last season, the Pacers went small around Turner. They played a mixture of guards and wings, with Buddy Hield, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith the most common starters. All three of those players are back, along with last season’s sixth man Bennedict Mathurin. And the Pacers added Bruce Brown to that mix in free agency.

Indiana also added bigger options in trading for Obi Toppin and drafting Jarace Walker. And that’s where things get interesting for Rick Carlisle.

Hield might be out of the mix to open the season. He requested a trade after extension talks broke down, and the Pacers are trying to accommodate him. Even if he’s still with the team to open the year, Hield might see his role reduced in favor of longer-term options.

This offseason, Maturin said the team told him he would start this season. We’ll take him at his word, and plug him into one spot. Considering Mathurin is very much a swing player, that leaves a backcourt and possible frontcourt spot open.

It seems likely that Indiana will be a bit more traditional this season, because they have the talent to do so. That’s why we’re leaning towards Brown and Toppin joining Haliburton, Turner and Mathurin in the starting five.

Brown was given $45 million this summer ($22 million guaranteed). That doesn’t mean he’s a lock to start, but it doesn’t not mean that either. In a more compelling case, Brown’s mix of defense, on- and off-ball offensive ability and his shooting are a terrific fit with the Pacers other starters.

Toppin is the best four on the roster right now. Maybe Walker overtakes him, but that’s a down-the-line thing. Toppin’s entire profile has been screaming for a bigger role throughout his three years in New York. That was never going to come with Julius Randle entrenched in front of him, so Toppin is now in Indiana. Given Haliburton’s excitement about the addition, we feel good saying Toppin will claim the fifth starting spot, and will give Indiana a real four in the lineup.

None of this is to suggest that Nembhard (who the Pacers love), Nesmith (who finally stayed healthy last year) and Walker (who the team gushes over) won’t get their chances. Indiana remains high on all of them, and they’ll all factor in, whether they start or not.

Related: How do the Pacers get Jarace Walker enough minutes?

Indiana acquired Obi Toppin after drafting Jarace Walker, but that was about seizing a good buy-low opportunity more than it was anything about the rookie forward. Talk to anyone with the Pacers and they’ll inevitably express a great deal of excitement about Walker.

That means he’s going to get on the floor. But how is the question. Indiana has a lot of NBA guys on their roster. If they don’t trade Buddy Hield, there are about 12 guys who could be in the mix for real minutes. That’s a lot of guys, and Walker is going to have to beat out several of them to play.

On one hand, if Toppin starts, Walker looks like the ideal backup power forward. And “backup” is sort of in name only here, as they could very well split the playing time at the four pretty evenly. If Rick Carlisle stays with multiple wings and guards around Myles Turner, things could get a little messy for both Toppin and Walker to play.

Neither is a real option at center. Walker could feature in some lineups on the wing, but he profiles as a smaller four right now. But it doesn’t really matter all that much, Walker’s talent is going to get him on the floor eventually.

As stated above, Toppin is our pick to start next to Turner up front. But if Toppin doesn’t grab that role fully, then Walker might snatch it from him. His shot is shaky, but Walker is ready to do everything else. In a system where the Pacers want to run, his grab-and-go ability will be as prized as Toppin’s ability to fill the lane in transition.

Look for Walker to get eased in somewhat. But that doesn’t mean a small number of minutes. It’s more about him not starting right away. Starting might eventually come, but the Pacers prized rookie forward is going to force his way on the floor no matter what.

Milwaukee Bucks

Who is the backup point guard?

If your biggest offseason question is about a 15-minute-a-night backup, you’re probably in pretty good shape. And the Bucks are certainly in pretty great shape. Yet, a pre-trade question still remains a valid one.

Damian Lillard is going to start at point guard. He’ll probably play somewhere around 33 minutes a night. That’s less than he’s played in recent years, but Milwaukee has big goals and they tend to not put too much on their key guys in the regular season.

Behind Lillard, as it was behind Jrue Holiday, is a question. Prior to the trade, the Bucks would likely have swung Grayson Allen over to the on-ball role behind Holiday. But both of them went out in the trade for Lillard, leaving the backup point guard just as big of a question.

Milwaukee did well to sign Cameron Payne after the trade, and he’ll clearly get the first shot at the backup role. But he’s coming off two shaky seasons in a row, after an outstanding first full year with the Phoenix Suns. Payne hasn’t shot it or finished quite as well over the last couple of years, which was an issue when the Suns had to press him into a bigger role with Chris Paul out.

Still, Payne will probably be fine behind Lillard…when he’s available. If Payne has injuries again, that’s where things get really questionable for the Bucks. There isn’t another proven point guard on the roster.

We aren’t going to overreact, because Milwaukee can run most of their offense through Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton if they need to. At that point, they can stick any capable shooter on the floor, and it’s probably fine.

The biggest issue could actually be defensively. Holiday was a top-tier defender, and the Bucks don’t have that anymore. Lillard’s offense will make up for any defensive drop-off. But behind him, they don’t even have that terrific change-of-pace guy, as Jevon Carter left in free agency.

Maybe Marjon Beauchamp puts it all together and snags a rotation role. Lindell Wigginton, TyTy Washington and Omari Moore are really interesting guys, but being on two-way deals limits how much they can play. This space is a big fan of A.J. Green, but he’s not really an on-ball stopper. And Andre Jackson Jr. is really fun, but that’s asking a lot of a rookie wing.

Much like with questions we asked of other contenders, we’ll leave this one in the “Not a problem until it is” category. But it’s still worth monitoring.

Related: Will Marjon Beauchamp see real minutes?

Marjon Beauchamp was as advertised a rookie. The size and athleticism show up regularly, but he wasn’t ready for real minutes on a contender.

As a second-year player, the Bucks might need Beauchamp to be a lot more ready.

Milwaukee’s wing and guard rotations were hit this offseason through free agent departures and trades. That’s left some openings for guys to step in. The Bucks would love for Beauchamp to snag a rotation role this year.

Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton are assured of rotation minutes. Middleton will start when he plays, and Connaughton may grab the fifth starter spot that opened up from the Damian Lillard trade. Malik Beasley could start instead of Connaughton, and he’s going to play a lot either as a starter or off the bench.

From there, it’s a lot more up in the air. Jae Crowder seems more like a four than a wing at this point, and that’s fine for what the Bucks need him to do. That’s especially true, as Bobby Portis is the primary backup center.

All of that leaves Beauchamp battling guys like A.J. Green, Andre Jackson Jr. and maybe Chris Livingston for minutes. Green has the best standout skill of that group with his shooting, but it’s still a very close competition.

The guess here is that it’s Beauchamp vs Jackson for the backup wing minutes that are available. If Beauchamp can shoot it a little better, and that’s a big if, he’s probably got the advantage. He did log 701 NBA minutes last season, where Jackson is coming in as a rookie.

But Jackson has an intriguing mix of all-around skills. If Jackson could shoot, we’d lock him in for backup wing minutes. But it’s that lack of a shot that puts him in competition with Beauchamp.

It’s not make-or-break time for Beauchamp by any means. But he did just turn 23 and isn’t exactly a super young prospect anymore. He’s got this season plus two more on his rookie scale deal, so there’s still a little time. But if Beauchamp doesn’t seize a rotation role this season, Milwaukee might need to start thinking about him in terms of being a tradable piece to fill that rotation hole that he couldn’t.

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