Contracts & Destinations for Notable NBA Free Agents

Michael GinnittiJune 21, 2019

Now that the draft has come and gone, the immediate focus for the NBA offseason turns to free agency, where we find a juicy list of big names ready to be wooed accordingly. We'll take a look at some of the bigger names, how much they're expected to cash in for, where they might end up, and more.

 

Kyrie Irving Signs a Less than Max 1+1 Contract with the Lakers

While teams like the Knicks, Nets, & maybe even the Celtics will be trying to sign Kyrie Irving as their centerpiece player going forward, Kyrie (and the rest of the world now) knows he’s a much better version of himself as a complimentary player. And there’s no better place to hide away and play than behind the shadows of LeBron James and now Anthony Davis. A Kyrie, Kuzma, LeBron, AD core lineup should be able to contend with anyone. The Lakers may only have around $25M to offer him in 2019, so he might be looking at a 2 year, $51M contract where 2020 is a player option.

 

Kawhi Leonard Stays, Just a Little Bit Longer

There’s something to be said about Kawhi Leonard having done everything he possibly could for the Raptors already, but the situation as a whole seems too good to be true for the 27-year-old - at least right now. With 8 years of experience, Kawhi’s maximum contract stems from 30% of the league cap. In two years, those numbers will soar to 35% of the league cap. Until then, it makes sense for Leonard to lock in a 2 year, maximum contract worth $68M to remain with the Raptors, and then reset his future thereafter.

 

Jimmy Butler Heads West

Jimmy Butler appears to be the “Plan B” option for many teams this summer, but he should be a top priority for the Clippers, even if they miss out on reeling Kawhi out of Canada. Butler’s style of play seems a strong fit for Doc Rivers’ system, and his addition puts the Clippers in serious contention in the West. If it’s Kawhi & Jimmy together, Butler’s deal might be slightly less than max. If it’s just Jimmy, it’s for sure a 4 year, $140M max contract.

 

Khris Middleton is Heavily Wooed, but Stays Home

Expect strong offers from teams like the Kings, Mavericks, & Nets to make the next few weeks difficult for Khris Middleton. But at the end of the day, if a team with Giannis, on the brink of an NBA Finals appearance in 2019, begs you to come back, you do so. Milwaukee may very well consider Giannis, Middleton, & Malcolm Brogdon their three core players for this window. Middleton is headed to unrestricted free agency, Brogdon is a restricted free agent who will garner at least a few offer sheets, and Giannis will be eligible for a SuperMax extension a year from now. If Milwaukee is in, it’s going to cost them upwards of 80% of their 2020-2021 salary cap to keep these three in the fold.

 

Can The Warriors Remain Intact?

Fans across the league have been pining for the day Kevin Durant leaves the motherland and heads to uncharted territory. While this is still a very real possibility, it also now stands to reason that Golden State has the upper hand. Durant’s Achilles injury will sideline him for 2019-20, as will Klay Thompson’s ACL tear.

The decision on Durant might be most difficult as there are very few instances of players returning to true form following an Achilles injury. But his value to this Warriors’ dynasty couldn’t have been more visible the past few weeks, and with the Warriors about to pack up and move to a brand new arena in San Fran, the best - albeit recklessly expensive - decision seems to be to offer KD a 5 year, $221M maximum contract to stay. Teams like the Knicks & Nets will likely be making their offers as well, but can only hand out a maximum 4 year, $164M contract. While money may not have been a driving factor in KD’s decision a few months ago, post-injury, an extra $57M to stay in Golden State certainly seems like something to consider. Durant holds a $31.5M player option currently, which must be decided on by June 29th. It’s likely he’ll decline, knowing there’a a $38.15M salary to be earned from someone in 2019-20 - even if he never sees the court.

Delayed Sign & Trade
There’s been much made about the Warriors extending Durant with the mindset of trading him in the near future (2020 deadline or summer). This delayed sign-and-trade would be beneficial to the Warriors, but it’s a MAJOR risk for Durant. Because KD has only been a Warrior for 3 seasons, he’s not eligible to negotiate a no-trade-clause into a deal this summer. While Golden State can say all the right things about how they’ll make sure Durant has his say on where a trade is processed, there’s nothing forcing the Warriors to play nice.

Klay Thompson
Thompson’s decision might be a little easier, as it just seems a given that he and the Warriors are sticking together for the foreseeable future. The only question comes in just how high Golden State is willing to go financially. Klay’s maximum contract to remain with the Warriors is a 5 year, $190M deal that includes a $32.7M salary in 2019-20. If we’re assuming all of the above here, that means Curry, Thompson, Green, Iguodala, & Durant will combine for $146.8M of 2019-20 salary cap, and two of those players (Durant, Thompson) likely won’t be available at all.

 

Kemba Returns to the Garden

The Knicks grand plan of adding Durant and an electrifying point guard as a 1-2 punch this summer might(?) be dead, but that shouldn’t stop Kemba Walker from returning to Madison Square Garden, where his college career hit a whole new level. Kemba’s proven he can lift a team up on his shoulders before, and with ample cap space to fill in strong pieces around him (even if it’s not another max. player), New York should be a very desirable landing spot for Walker. The Catch? Being selected an All-NBA player this past season qualified Kemba for a Super Max extension in Charlotte, to the tune of 5 years, $221M. The most the Knicks or other prospective teams are able to offer Walker is a 4 year, $140M contract, a difference of $81M guaranteed. Even if Charlotte offers a slightly less than SuperMax deal, they’ll be head and shoulders above where the Knicks can be financially. We’ll soon see how much Kemba Walker really enjoys the Hornets.

 

Offer Sheets Galore for D’Angelo Russell

Utah, the team that initially made the most sense for a D'Angelo Russell acquisition, just completed a trade to bring veteran PG Mike Conley in from Memphis. Still, there will be offers for the 23-year-old, including teams such as Minnesota, Indiana, Orlando, and possibly even the Boston Celtics, who have been frantically clearing cap space themselves. But ultimately, if the Nets miss out on Kyrie, Kawhi, Butler, Durant, they’ll be forced to match an offer for Russell, which might be a blessing in disguise as it is. Russell’s game has never looked near as strong as it has in Brooklyn. A max offer sheet for D’Angelo clocks in at 4 years, $117M, including $27.25M in 2019-20.

 

Honorable Mentions

PlayerPosAGEStatusYOEPotential Contract
DeMarcus Cousins C 29 UFA 9 2 yr, $24M, (CHI)
Tobias Harris SF 27 UFA 8 5 yr, $189M (MAX, PHI)
Nikola Vucevic C 28 UFA 8 4 yr, $100M (ORL->BOS)
Julius Randle PF 24 UFA 5 4 yr, $80M (BKN)
Malcolm Brogdon PG 26 RFA 3 4 yr, $80M (MIL)
Al Horford C 33 UFA 12 4 yr, $112M (SAC)

 

Related Links

 

NBA Max Contracts, Rookie Wages, & Free Agency

Michael GinnittiJune 20, 2019

With the NBA Offseason rumor mill now full steam ahead, we'll take a moment to dive into the nuts and bolts of maximum contracts, which love them or hate them, continue to drive the league forward on an annual basis. There are just a few things to consider when considering a player at a maximum compensation level.

 

Years of Experience

First year salaries for maximum contracts are based on tiers of years of experience (0-6, 7-9, and 10+).

  • 0-6 years of experience would qualify for 25% of the cap, 
  • 7-9 years of experience would qualify for 30% of the cap, 
  • 10+ years of experience would qualify for 35% of the cap

 

Contract Length & Salary Increases

The length of a maximum contract varies based on whether the player is re-signing with his current team, or signing a new contract elsewhere. Players re-signing with their current team can lock in a maximum contract of 5 years. A contract with a new team can only be a maximum of 4 years.

While the first year salary of a maximum contract is based on the slotted percentage of the league cap, the additional salaries are calculated based on a percent increase. Players re-signing with their current team have salary increases of 8% built in to the contract, while those signing to a new team receive only 5% increases.

 

Maximum Contract Breakdowns

All figures based on a $109M salary cap

New Team Current Team
YOE: 0-6SalaryTotal YOE: 0-6SalaryTotal
1 $27,250,000 $27,250,000   1 $27,250,000 $27,250,000
2 $28,612,500 $55,862,500   2 $29,430,000 $56,680,000
3 $29,975,000 $85,837,500   3 $31,610,000 $88,290,000
4 $31,337,500 $117,175,000   4 $33,790,000 $122,080,000
        5 $35,970,000 $158,050,000
             
YOE: 7-9SalaryTotal YOE: 7-9SalaryTotal
1 $32,700,000 $32,700,000   1 $32,700,000 $32,700,000
2 $34,335,000 $67,035,000   2 $35,316,000 $68,016,000
3 $35,970,000 $103,005,000   3 $37,932,000 $105,948,000
4 $37,605,000 $140,610,000   4 $40,548,000 $146,496,000
        5 $43,164,000 $189,660,000
             
YOE: 10+SalaryTotal YOE: 10+SalaryTotal
1 $38,150,000 $38,150,000   1 $38,150,000 $38,150,000
2 $40,057,500 $78,207,500   2 $41,202,000 $79,352,000
3 $41,965,000 $120,172,500   3 $44,254,000 $123,606,000
4 $43,872,500 $164,045,000   4 $47,306,000 $170,912,000
        5 $50,358,000 $221,270,000
*based on a $109M league cap

 

SuperMax Contracts

SuperMax contracts were built in to allow younger players who are producing at an elite level the opportunity to jump up a maximum contract tier, despite their lack of accrued years.

In other words, it allows players with at least 4 years of experience to jump up from the 25% pay scale, to the 30%, or players with 8-9 years of experience to jump up from 30% to 35%. Here are the rules to qualify for the SuperMax:

  • The player was named to the All-NBA First, Second or Third team in the most recent season, or both of the two seasons that preceded the most recent season.
  • The player was named the Defensive Player of the Year in the most recent season, or both of the two seasons that preceded the most recent season.
  • The player was named the NBA Most Valuable Player in any of the three most recent seasons.

 

The 1+1 Contract

One of the more recent trends that LeBron James & Kevin Durant have started is to sign a 1 year contract that includes a player option for a 2nd season, commonly known as a 1+1 deal. This allows players the ability to make a lot of money (generally the max) in the first year, then complete control of their immediate future. As the league salary cap has continued to rise at a big clip ($10M annual), players have opted out of their 2nd year in order to sign a new contract based on the increased league cap figure.

However in the case of the now injured Kevin Durant in 2018-19, locking in the player option for 2019-20 was certainly to his benefit. Before the injury, it was a near certainty that Durant would opt-out of his current deal and explore the open market seeking a new maximum contract. Now injured, Durant holds control over how his next calendar year will play out.

 

Notable 2019 Free Agent Max. Contracts

It's important to note that these are just the maximum terms that are available. Players may choose to sign contracts shorter in length, and in the cases of players with 8 years of experience, will likely do so to allow themselves the chance to cash in at the 10 YOE level.

PlayerPosTeamStatusYOEMax 2019-20 SalaryCurrent Team Max ContractNew Team Max Contract
Kevin Durant SF GSW Player Option 12 $38,150,000 5 years, $221M 4 years, $164M
Kawhi Leonard SF TOR Player Option 8 $32,700,000 5 years, $190M 4 years, $140M
Jimmy Butler SG PHI UFA 8 $32,700,000 5 years, $190M 4 years, $140M
Klay Thompson SG GSW UFA 8 $32,700,000 5 years, $190M 4 years, $140M
Kyrie Irving PG BOS UFA 8 $32,700,000 5 years, $190M 4 years, $140M
Kemba Walker PG CHA UFA 8 $38,150,000 (TOR)
$32,700,000 (New)		 5 years, $221M 4 years, $140M
Tobias Harris SF PHI UFA 8 $32,700,000 5 years, $190M 4 years, $140M
Khris Middleton SF MIL UFA 7 $32,700,000 5 years, $190M 4 years, $140M
D'Angelo Russell PG BKN RFA 4 $27,250,000 5 years, $158M 4 years, $117M
Kristaps Porzingis PF DAL RFA 3 $27,250,000 5 years, $158M 4 years, $117M

 

Drafted Rookie Contracts

The starting point for the NBA rookie wage scale was created in the current CBA for the 2017-18 season. From there, rookie wages have increased based on the percent increase of the league salary cap. That slotted figure is the "middle" point that a team can sign their rookie to, as every first round pick's salary can be as little as 80% of the slotted price, or up to 120% of that figure. Generally speaking, most high first rounders receive the full 120% value.

Rookie contracts are designed as 2 year deals, with club options in year 3 and year 4, & and qualifying offer (or restricted tender) available in year 5.

Players are available for an extension following the 3rd accrued season of their rookie contract, just like in the NFL. Here's how the 2 year contracts & projected 2019-20 cap figures look for the first 5 draft picks.

PickTeamYearsDollars2019 Cap Hit
1 NOP 2 $19,976,760 $9,744,720
2 MEM 2 $17,874,000 $8,718,960
3 NYK 2 $16,050,840 $7,829,640
4 LAL (NOP) 2 $14,471,400 $7,059,360
5 CLE 2 $13,104,480 $6,392,400

 

Related Links

 

Projected NBA Playoff Team Payouts

Michael GinnittiJune 06, 2019

With the NBA Playoffs winding down, we'll take a quick look at the projected payouts for each postseason team in 2018-19. Since the official playoff bonus pool figure hasn't been released yet, we'll base these numbers off of last year's amount, which came in at $20M, as playoff pools have had a pattern of being the same two years in a row. Should this change, we'll update this article accordingly. All payouts figures are team totals that are then divvied up among the club's players.

Warriors & Raptors
As it stands, the Golden State Warriors stand to reel in $4M ($272,800 per player) for losing the Finals, & $5.2M ($352,500 per player) should they win it.

The Toronto Raptors stand to receive $3.99M($266,200 per player) for a Finals loss, or $5.1M ($345,800 per play) if they win it all.

 

Seeding Payouts

 Team(s)Payout
Best Overall Record Bucks $576,843
#1 Seeds Bucks, Warriors $504,737 (each)
#2 Seeds Raptors, Nuggets $405,684 (each)
#3 Seeds 76ers, Trail Blazers $302,843 (each)
#4 Seeds Celtics, Rockets $238,001 (each)
#5 Seeds Pacers, Jazz $198,317 (each)
#6 Seeds Nets, Thunder $135,263 (each)

 

Posteason Payouts

 Team(s)Payout
First Round Bucks, Raptors, 76ers, Celtics, Pacers, Nets, Magic, Pistons, Warriors, Nuggets, Trail Blazers, Rockets, Jazz, Thunder, Spurs, Clippers $298,485 (each)
Conference Semis Bucks, Raptors, Celtics, 76ers, Warriors, Rockets, Trail Blazers, Nuggets $355,159 (each)
Conference Finals Bucks, Raptors, Warriors, Trail Blazers $586,898 (each)
Finals Loser TBD $2,346,947
Finals Winner TBD $3,541,896

 

Total Payouts

Here's a look at the total compensation for each team thus far.
* The Warriors & Raptors will add an additional $2.3M, or $3.5M based on the outcome of the finals.

TeamPayout
Bucks $2,322,122
Warriors $1,745,279*
Raptors $1,646,226*
Trail Blazers $1,543,385
Nuggets $1,059,328
76ers $956,487
Celtics $891,645
Rockets $891,645
Pacers $496,802
Jazz $496,802
Nets $433,748
Thunder $433,748
Magic $298,485
Pistons $298,485
Spurs $298,485
Clippers $298,485

2019 Offseason Finances: Atlanta Falcons

Michael GinnittiJune 03, 2019

A surprisingly disappointing 7-9 record in 2018 put the brakes on what appeared like a legit contending window for the Falcons. They've made significant changes this offseason in hopes of rebooting on the fly, and pushing back up the NFC South inline with the Saints.

 

Notable Additions & Subtractions

The Falcons came into the offseason hellbent on ripping up their offensive line and moving forward. Out goes guards Andy Levitre (retirement) & Wes Schweitzer (bench), & right tackle Ryan Schraeder (released), and in come James Carpenter (NYJ), Jamon Brown (NYG), & the promotion of Ty Sambrailo. They'll be immediately pushed by first round pick Chris Lindstrom (OG) & second round pick Kaleb McGary (OT), putting a ribbon on a new-look O-Line in Atlanta. From there, the Falcons saw RB  Tevin Coleman jump ship to San Francisco, while on the defensive side of the ball, cornerbacks Robert Alford & Justin Bethel were asked to do business elsewhere. Atlanta used its third round selection to bring in CB Kendall Sheffield from Ohio State to counter these moves.

» View 2019 Free Agent Signings

 

Offseason Spending

The Cardinals signed 14 free agents, combining for $56M of total contracts, $24M of which is guaranteed. Three of these signings (Carpenter, Brown, & TE Luke Stocker) figure to be in the mix to start in 2019. Atlanta's biggest offseason money likely hasn't been spent yet, as DT Grady Jarrett remains on an unsigned $15.2M franchise tag, LB Deion Jones enters a contract year, & WR Julio Jones  continues to express interest in a top-of-the-market receiver contract. The Falcons have until July 15th to lock in Jarrett to a multi-year extension, after which he'll be stuck to the franchise tag.

» View NFL Offseason Spending

 

Top 2019 Cap Hits

  Pos.Age.2019 Cap Hit
Matt Ryan QB 34 $15,800,000
Grady Jarrett DT 26 $15,209,000
Desmond Trufant CB 28 $13,900,000

» View the 2019 Salary Cap Table

 

Top 2019 Cash Earners

  Pos.Age.2019 CashThoughts
Matt Ryan QB 34 $44,750,000 Ryan receives the second half of his $46.5M signing bonus in 2019, plus an $11.5M salary, plus a $10M option bonus.
Jake Matthews OT 27 $15,500,000 Matthews enters year two of his $72.5M contract signed last offseason. His $9M option bonus & $6.5M salary are already locked in.
Grady Jarrett DT 26 $15,209,000 Jarrett's franchise tag is 6 times more than he made across his entire four year rookie contract from 2015-2018. He's likely seeking around $35M of upfront guarantees on a multi-year deal though.

» View the 2019 Cash Payroll

 

Top Active Career Earners

  Pos.Age.Career EarningsThoughts
Matt Ryan QB 34 $178,707,925 Drafted prior to the rookie wage scale, Ryan's 3 NFL contracts have total possible values of $67.5M, $103.75M, & $150M. His current deal runs through 2023.
Matt Schaub QB 37 $90,555,000 Schaub has earned around $12M as Ryan's backup for the past 6 years, but earned almost $70M from his days as a starter in Houston. 2019 will be his 16th NFL season.
Julio Jones WR 30 $76,609,579 Jones is already 9th on the all-time WR earnings list, and will find himself Top 5 after 2019 - even without a new contract.

» View the Career Earnings List

 

Notable 2020 Free Agents

  Pos.Age.Thoughts
Vic Beasley DE 26 Beasley was the worst graded Edge defender according to PFF in 2018, but appears poised to stick around on his $12.8M fully guaranteed salary. The high salary likely keeps him off the trade block at the deadline, so it's most likely he walks next March, barring a major comeback season in 2019.
Deion Jones ILB 24 Jones has been one of the best-rated inside linebackers each of his first three seasons, and would probably already have a new deal under his belt were it not for the ridiculous money the Jets decided to hand to CJ Mosely this March. That deal completely shattered the ceiling for interior linebacker money, putting players like Jones, & Bobby Wagner in a very good place.
Austin Hooper  TE 24 A quick start to 2019 for Hooper, who's coming off of a 71 catch, 660 yards, 4 TD season in Atlanta, will push him way up the extension candidate list.

» View All Free Agents

 

Top Fantasy Players

  Pos.PPR Pos. Rank.Non-PPR Pos. RankContract Expires
Matt Ryan QB 5 5 2024
Devonta Freeman  RB 14 15 2023
Ito Smith WR 40 50 2022
Julio Jones WR 3 3 2021
Calvin Ridley  WR 30 31 2023
Mohamed Sanu  WR 69 57 2021
Austin Hooper TE 10 13 2020
Team Defense DEF 20 20 N/A

2019 Offseason Finances: Arizona Cardinals

Michael GinnittiMay 29, 2019

The 3-13 Cardinals turned the worst record in football, into a 1st round selection of a QB for the second straight year. Out goes Josh Rosen to Miami, in comes Kyler Murray to run a new, likely faster, Cardinals' offense.

 

Notable Additions & Subtractions

The trade that sent QB Josh Rosen to the Dolphins represented a loss of $4.15M in cap space for Arizona, but was a necessary evil to give Murray the reigns. Not coincidentally, FS Antoine Bethea's release cleared $4.75M of space, more than enough to account for the Rosen move. Arizona also sent a late round draft pick to Pittsburgh to acquire OT Marcus Gilbert, who projects to become the starting RT for 2019. QB Kyler Murray comes to town on a 4 year, $35.1M, fully guaranteed, contract that includes a $23.5M signing bonus, and a cap figure of $6.3M in 2019. While the only notable contract extension went to WR Larry Fitzgerald , who rejoins Arizona for his 16th season on an $11M salary.

» View 2019 Free Agent Signings

 

Offseason Spending

The Cardinals signed 16 free agents, combining for $220M of total contracts, $109M of which is guaranteed. They added or signed back 7 projected starters for 2019, while acquiring another (Marcus Gilbert, OT) via trade from Pittsburgh. It's a rebuild on the fly for Arizona, from the Head Coach, to the QB, & on down.

» View NFL Offseason Spending

 

Top 2019 Cap Hits

  Pos.Age.2019 Cap Hit
Chandler Jones DE 29 $19,500,000
Patrick Peterson CB 28 $11,884,588
Larry Fitzgerald WR 36 $11,250,000

 

Top 2019 Cash Earners

  Pos.Age.2019 CashThoughts
Kyler Murray QB 21 $24,084,924 Murray's $23.5M signing bonus is likely split across the next calendar year, but he finds himself well ahead of the $4.6M bonus to play MLB
Chandler Jones DE 29 $16,500,000 Jones enters year three of his $82.5M megadeal, the final season of guaranteed money. He'll have $31.5M of non-guaranteed salary to be made thru 2021.
Jordan Hicks ILB 27 $15,275,000 Hicks joins Arizona on a 4 year, $34M contract that includes $20M guaranteed through 2020.

 

Top Active Career Earners

  Pos.Age.Career EarningsThoughts
Larry Fitzgerald WR 36 $163,296,387 Sticky Fingers has now earned $50M more than any other WR in the history of the game.
Terrell Suggs OLB 36 $105,210,000 Suggs reeled in $105M during his time with the Ravens, and will see another $7M more from Arizona in 2019.
Patrick Peterson CB 28 $74,772,926 Peterson's $74M earned ranks 6th all-time among cornerbacks. His current contract contracts another $19M left to be made.

 

Notable 2020 Free Agents

  Pos.Age.Thoughts
Marcus Gilbert RT 32 The longtime Steelers lineman should improve the right side of the line for Kyler Murray in 2019.
D.J. Swearinger FS 29 He's rebirthed his career since leaving Washington and should benefit from a massively fruitful free agency period for a half dozen or so safeties.
D.J. Humphries LT 25 An inconsistent first 4 seasons has his future very much in question, but with his $9.6M option now fully guaranteed, he'll get a chance to prove he's worth another contract in 2019.

 

Top Fantasy Players

  Pos.PPR Pos. Rank.Non-PPR Pos. RankContract Expires
Kyler Murray QB 14 12 2024
David Johnson  RB 5 8 2022
Larry Fitzgerald  WR 37 48 2020
Christian Kirk WR 51 34 2022
Charles Clay TE 32 32 2020
Team Defense DEF 26 26 N/A

2019 NFL Draft & Projected Starters Facts & Figures

Michael GinnittiApril 23, 2019

With NFL draft week upon us, a look at a few facts and figure surrounding the various elements leading up to the next team-building phase of the offseason. We'll take a look at draft statuses, and average salaries for the projected 2019 starters by position. Estimate rookie contracts for various upcoming draft slots, and more. Make sure to bookmark our NFL Draft Tracker to keep up with selections as they come in, and keep the conversation going @spotrac.

 

Notable Notes

  • The Giants have 12 picks, tied for most in the league with the Patriots. Four of NY's picks lie within the Top 100.
  • The Raiders have 3 first round picks, while the Packers, & Seahawks have two.
  • Quarterbacks drafted in the first round the past 5 years: 2018 (5), 2017 (3), 2016 (3), 2015 (2), 2014 (3)
  • Running Backs drafted in the first round the past 5 years: 2018 (3), 2017 (2), 2016 (1), 2015 (2), 2014 (0)
  • The 4 year contract for the #1 overall pick has increased from $25.3M in 2015, to a projected $34.9M in 2019.
  • A total of 21 WRs were drafted in the 1st or 2nd round in 2014 & 2015. Of them, only 5 remain with their drafted team
    Mike Evans (TB), DeVante Parker (MIA), Nelson Agholor (PHI), Marqise Lee (JAX), Davante Adams (GB). 9 were traded, 5 walked in free agency, & 2 were waived.
  • Assuming total contracts, the Packers, Cardinals, Raiders, & Giants will need to allocate more than $10M of 2019 salary cap to their upcoming draft class.
How the Current Projected Starters Got Here

A look at where the projected 2019 starters by position were originally drafted. UDFA signifies Undrafted Free Agent, while Supp refers to a Supplemental draft pick. The projected starter depth charts were pulled from the great OurLads.com

Pos.1234567UDFASupp.
QB 21 4 2 2   1 1 1  
RB 10 12 8 12 5 5 1 12  
FB       1 1 4 1 9  
WR 24 24 15 12 10 5 5 32 1
TE 9 9 11 9 6 5 3 12  
OC 6 6 5 3 3 5 1 4  
OG 14 8 14 4 4 2 4 12  
LT 18 6 1 2     3 2  
RT 9 6 2 3 3 1 2 7  
DT 13 11 11 3 4 2 2 8  
DE 25 10 8 7 3   3 6  
OLB 16 10 12 7 6 3 1 7  
ILB 9 10 5 6 7 3 1 7  
CB 25 12 5 5 5 1 2 7 1
S 16 14 10 4 3 5 2 10  
K       1 3 3 4 21  
P     1   6 4 3 17  
LS       1 1   2 26 1
%24%16%12%9%8%5%4%22%0.3%

 

Hi, Low, Average Salaries of Projected 2019 Starters

The current average salaries by position based on 2019 projected starters from Ourlads depth charts.

Pos.HiLowAvg
QB $35,000,000 $680,848 $15,421,856
LT $16,500,000 $746,605 $8,651,715
DE $21,000,000 $573,000 $7,519,908
DT $22,500,000 $525,000 $5,897,302
CB $15,000,000 $555,000 $5,848,206
OG $14,000,000 $560,000 $5,122,986
OC $11,125,000 $636,792 $5,111,001
RT $12,750,000 $561,667 $4,782,719
OLB $23,500,000 $570,000 $4,778,072
ILB $17,000,000 $571,667 $4,760,731
WR $18,000,000 $525,000 $4,665,615
S $14,000,000 $610,089 $4,047,497
TE $10,000,000 $563,867 $3,358,582
RB $13,375,000 $575,000 $2,826,422
K $4,971,000 $495,000 $2,394,218
P $3,962,500 $532,500 $1,634,239
LS $1,175,000 $540,000 $957,048
AVG:$5,163,419

 

Projected 2019 Rookie Contracts

A look at the projected 4 year contracts and subsequent average salaries for notable draft picks in 2019.View the full breakdown of draft picks, and projected contracts here: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/draft/

Pick4-YR CONTRACTAVG. SALARY2019 CAP HIT
1 $34,912,834 $8,728,208 $6,347,788
5 $29,114,286 $7,278,571 $5,293,507
10 $18,749,378 $4,687,345 $3,408,978
15 $14,328,004 $3,582,001 $2,605,092
20 $12,515,941 $3,128,985 $2,275,626
30 $10,466,586 $2,616,647 $1,903,016
33 $7,650,500 $1,912,625 $1,391,000
65 $4,272,515 $1,068,129 $778,519
100 $3,399,480 $849,870 $685,379

Breaking Down Russell Wilson's Extension

Michael GinnittiApril 21, 2019

The Terms

Wilson’s 4 new years and $140M of new money come by way of a $65M signing bonus, $65M of base salary, & $10M of roster bonuses available at the end of the deal. It’s a pretty straight forward structure, as per usual with Seattle.

 

The Guarantees

While $70M of this contract is fully guaranteed at signing (the $65M signing bonus & $5M base salary for 2019) it’s all but certain that Wilson plays this contract out through the year 2022, which means $131M cash ($114M of new money). As per usual with Seattle contracts of this magnitude, only the first year of the deal is fully guaranteed, after which guarantees kick in a few days after the preceding Super Bowl. In Wilson’s case this is the 5th day of the 2020 & 2021 waiver periods respectively. It should be noted that those salaries are guaranteed for injury now.

 

The Cap Hits

Wilson’s 2019 cap figure increases $1M with the new contract, up to $26.2M, which is currently the 6th highest in all of football, and represents less than 14% of the league cap this year.

From there, he’ll hold cap figures of $31M, $32M, $37M, & $39M through 2023, which seem large, but should be plenty tenable with the consistently rising league salary cap trend.

 

The Rankings

In terms of new money total, Russell Wilson’s $140M contract with the Seahawks ranks 3rd behind Matt Ryan ($150M), & Khalil Mack ($141M). Full Ranks: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/

His $35M average annual value is the highest in the history of the NFL, and $1.5M more than Aaron Rodgers ($33.5M). Full Ranks: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/

While his initial $70M guaranteed at signing ranks 4th (Ryan, Cousins, Rodgers), the $107M of practical guarantees sits atop the all-time list. Full Ranks: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/guaranteed/

The $65M signing bonus is $7.5M more than any other player in the league (Rodgers, $57.5M). It will be paid out as $30M in 2019, & $35M in 2020. Full Ranks: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/signing-bonus/

Wilson’s 3-Year cash flow includes $35M in 2019, $88M through 2020, & $107M through 2021. The $88M 2-year cash is $6.1M more than 2nd place Rodgers, while the $107M 3-year pay is $4M more. Full Listing: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/cumulative-cash/

 

Career Earnings

To date, Wilson has reeled in just over $74M across 7 NFL seasons (just $2.1M over his first three years). With $131M more almost certain to be made on this new deal, his future earnings should push over $205M after 2022, when he’ll be 33 years old. There’s a very good chance for another big payday in his future granted he stays healthy and productive. Full Earnings List: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/earnings/

 

Analysis

With all the talk of “fully guaranteed” and “sliding contracts based on league cap percentages”, this is a really standard deal at the end of the day. What makes this contract stronger than most in structure is the signing bonus. A $65M signing bonus split into 5 equal cap figures ($13M for 2019-2023) adds significant dead cap to the end of this deal, making his roster spot over the next 3 years extremely secure, and a 4th year very secure. Seattle would’ve had to break their contract structure precedence to do a deal that more signifies a shift to a new generation (100% guaranteed base salaries, roster bonus incentives that raise the annual cash flow to match the rising league cap, etc…). They didn’t, and when it’s all said and done, it’s pretty hard to blame Russell Wilson and his camp for saying yes to $131M of practical guaranteed cash.

2019 NBA Playoff Teams, Financially

Michael GinnittiApril 12, 2019
Postseason Team Financials
Team2018-19 PayrollLeague RankStarting 52019-20 Cap Space
Golden State Warriors $145,299,879 1 $109,252,444 $-13,414,656
Oklahoma City Thunder $142,869,264 2 $101,144,840 $-39,568,211
Toronto Raptors $137,219,123 3 $91,265,753 $-24,694,677
Portland Trail Blazers $133,096,018 4 $71,518,748 $-24,348,643
Boston Celtics $125,505,053 5 $72,583,013 $-16,181,923
Detroit Pistons $123,481,463 8 $77,788,213 $-8,729,154
Houston Rockets $123,411,509 9 $102,839,019 $-14,308,460
San Antonio Spurs $122,602,477 13 $57,826,470 $7,357,782
Milwaukee Bucks $122,168,320 14 $66,146,446 $5,058,352
Los Angeles Clippers $118,570,700 17 $33,238,557 $59,661,930
Brooklyn Nets $117,571,620 18 $37,505,471 $53,005,568
Denver Nuggets $117,302,575 19 $86,265,000 $-11,703,771
Orlando Magic $114,671,036 20 $64.059.989 $21,929,933
Utah Jazz $113,394,016 22 $71,523,508 $16,780,097
Philadelphia 76ers $111,962,081 24 $79,397,549 $39,618,776
Indiana Pacers $110,579,462 25 $38,187,075 $48,834,149

 

 

Western Conference

1. Golden State Warriors

Odds: 4/9
2018-19 Cap: $145,299,879, 1st
Starting 5 Cap: $109,252,444

At $145M, no team had more cap allocated to their roster in 2018-19 than the Warriors who finished the year with 57 wins and a first round date with the nearby Clippers. Their starting 5 account for a league most $109M, and they currently stand about $21M over the luxury tax cap, meaning a bill north of $50M.

Curry, Durant, & Cousins all finished the year with PER ratings north of 20, however Klay Thompson & Draymond Green both took a bit of a step back in many aspects. They’re still the odds-on favorites, but it doesn’t feel like a slam dunk - yet.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 2
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $-13M
Notable Free Agents: Kevin Durant (opt-out), Klay Thompson, DeMarcus Cousins

2. Denver Nuggets

Odds: 18/1
2018-19 Cap: $117,302,575, 19th
Starting 5 Cap: $86,265,000

The Nuggets held the 19th highest cap total this year, and with 54 wins to boot are easily the best values in the league and will face the #7 seed Spurs in round one. Though Denver traded away all of their picks for the upcoming draft, they're also fully intact for the 2019-20 season, assuming they exercise a $30.5M club option on Millsap.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 0
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $-11M
Notable Free Agents: Paul Millsap (club option), Isaiah Thomas

3. Portland Trail Blazers

Odds: 40/1
2018-19 Cap: $133,096,018, 4th
Starting 5 Cap: $71,518,748

Portland enters the postseason with a starting 5 that accounts for just 53% of their total cap allocations in 2018-19. They'll face a hungry OKC team in round one, who swept them 4-0 in the regular season. The Trail Blazers will have tough financial decisions to make this offseason with current start Aminu, and big minute role players in Hood & Curry set to hit the open market.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 1 (1st)
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $-17M
Notable Free Agents: Al-Farouq Aminu, Rodney Hood, Seth Curry

4. Houston Rockets

Odds: 11/1
2018-19 Cap: $123,411,509, 9th
Starting 5 Cap: $102,839,019

For all the talk about Harden and the high scoring Rockets, Houston actually finished the regular season 5th in combined Net Rating, a stat that measures both sides of the court fairly well. They fell from the 2-seed to the 4-seed this week, meaning a first round matchup against Utah, whom they split the season series with. All 5 starters are under contract for 2019-20.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 0
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $-14M
Notable Free Agents: Patrick Beverley, Austin Rivers, Danuel House, Iman Shumpert

5. Utah Jazz

Odds: 60/1
2018-19 Cap: $113,394,016, 22nd
Starting 5 Cap: $71,523,508

Utah quietly climbed to the 5th seed in a loaded Western Conference, and will face the high flying Rockets to start the postseason (season split 2-2). With only 1 player earning north of $20M (Gobert, $23M), Utah's filled with young value, but lack posteason experience. However their 4.0 combined Net Rating ranks 4th in the league, just ahead of Houston. They'll have an offseason decision to make on Ricky Rubio, who's scheduled to become a free agent.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 2
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $16.7M
Notable Free Agents: Ricky Rubio, Donovan Mitchell (Club option)

6. Oklahoma City Thunder

Odds: 35/1
2018-19 Cap: $142,869,264, 2nd
Starting 5 Cap: $101,144,840

Oklahoma City jumped two spots in the last week to earn a first round date with Portland, a team they swept in the regular season. They carry the 2nd highest cap in the NBA, and one of the most expensive starting 5 as well. OKC is nearly $20M over the luxury cap this season, and stands to pay a $61M+ fee. All five starters and notable bench players are locked up for next season already.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 1 (1st)
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $16.7M
Notable Free Agents: Markieff Morris, Patrick Patterson, Nerlens Noel

7. San Antonio Spurs

Odds: 80/1
2018-19 Cap: $122,602,477, 13th
Starting 5 Cap: $57,826,470

At some point the Spurs are going to be really bad again, right? San Antonio brings the 13th highest cap, and one of the cheaper starting 5s in all of basketball to a first round matchup against Denver (2-2 season split). They also hold a bit of cap space and 2 first round picks this offseason, while their entire starting 5 are under contract in 2019.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 3 (2 1sts)
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $7.3M
Notable Free Agents: Rudy Gay, Dante Cunningham

8. Los Angeles Clippers

Odds: 150/1
2018-19 Cap: $118,570,700, 17th
Starting 5 Cap: $33,238,557

Remember when the Clippers folded their season by trading away Tobias Harris? The Clippers opened up 2019 cap space, got younger and cheaper, and still made the postseason in 2018. They're a long shot to pass through Golden State (3-1 GSW seasn series), but they're set up really nicely for the immediate future. They've got some depth pieces headed to free agency, but a few splash signings could shake up this roster in a very positive way.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 2 (2nds)
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $59.6M
Notable Free Agents: Ivica Zubac (RFA), Garrett Temple, Rodney McGruder, Wilson Chandler

 

 

Eastern Conference

1. Milwaukee Bucks

Odds: 13/2
2018-19 Cap: $122,168,320, 14th
Starting 5 Cap: $66,146,446

Despite a middle of the league payroll, the Bucks have been the best team, with the best player in the Eastern Conference all year. They hold the highest NET Rating (8.6), and the highest defensive NET rating (104.9) in the NBA. They'll face an unworthy Pistons team in the first round whom they swept 4-0 in the regular season. Looking ahead, there are offseason decisions to be made, with Khris Middleton likely to opt-out, & big men Brook Lopez, Nikola Mirotic set to hit the open market.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 1 (1st)
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $5M
Notable Free Agents: Khris Middleton (opt-out), Brook Lopez, Nikola Mirotic

2. Toronto Raptors

Odds: 19/2
2018-19 Cap: $137,219,123, 3rd
Starting 5 Cap: $91,265,753

Some may be surprised to learn the Raptors hold the 3rd highest payroll in the league, but they've been pushing "all-in" for the better part of 3 seasons now, peaking in 2018-19 with the acquisition of Leonard. They'll face a sneaky tough Orlando Magic lineup in the first round, whom they split the season series with 2-2. They're also $13M over the luxury tax max, meaning a fine of almost $25M is forthcoming. With Leonard, Gasol, Green, & Lin all likely on expiring contracts, the window is closing for this Raptors team.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 1 (2nd)
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $5M
Notable Free Agents: Kawhi Leonard (opt-out), Marc Gasol (opt-out), Danny Green, Jeremy Lin

3. Philadelphia 76ers

Odds: 16/1
2018-19 Cap: $111,962,081, 24nd
Starting 5 Cap: $79,397,549

The young Sixers hold one of the lowest cap payrolls in the NBA, and still pumped out 51 wins in 2018-19. They posted the 11th best NET rating, and have shown depth over the second half of the season. They'll face a much improved Brooklyn team in the first round, whom they split the season series with. Regardless of their postseason, Philly's a team to watch this offseason as they currently hold 5 draft picks (4 2nds), $39M of practical cap space, and a bunch of notable expiring contracts.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 5 (4 2nds)
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $39M
Notable Free Agents: Jimmy Butler (opt-out), Tobias Harris, J.J. Redick

4. Boston Celtics

Odds: 16/1
2018-19 Cap: $125,505,053, 5th
Starting 5 Cap: $72,583,013

A 49-win season for a Boston team with a $125M payroll that was arguably the preseason favorite to win the East is a bit of a disappointment, but this is basically the same Celtics team that nearly made a Finals' appearance in 2018. They score a favorable first round matchup against the Pacers (3-1 season series win), but will likely see Milwaukee in the second round. Boston goes over the tax cap by $2.5M according to our numbers, meaning a near $4M fee, and a bit of a restriction on what they're likely to do next season to avoid the repeat offense.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 5 (4 1sts)
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $-16M
Notable Free Agents: Kyrie Irving (opt-out), Al Horford (opt-out), Aron Baynes (opt-out), Terry Rozier (RFA)

5. Indiana Pacers

Odds: 80/1
2018-19 Cap: $110,579,462, 25th
Starting 5 Cap: $38,187,075

It's been three months since the Pacers lost their key player (Oladipo), yet here they stand a 5th seed in the Eastern Conference. They hold the 5th lowest payroll in the league, & one of the cheapest starting lineups, including a player they picked up from the waiver wire just a few weeks ago (Matthews). Four current starters are headed to unrestricted free agency in July, but they've got enough cap space to keep/rebuild as needed.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 2
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $48M
Notable Free Agents: Thaddeus Young, Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Wesley Matthews, Tyreke Evans

6. Brooklyn Nets

Odds: 125/1
2018-19 Cap: $117,571,620, 18th
Starting 5 Cap: $37,505,471

Brooklyn's rise up the east happened a year early then many predicted, due in large part to the breakout success of  D'Angelo Russell. Russell's set to hit restricted free agency and will likely command an offer sheet were he to hit that market. The good news? The Nets have two first round picks, over $50M of cap space, and an attractive young team to draw interest from notable free agents.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 3 (2 1sts)
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $53M
Notable Free Agents: Allen Crabbe (opt-out), D'Angelo Russell (RFA), DeMarre Carroll

7. Orlando Magic

Odds: 100/1
2018-19 Cap: $114,671,036, 20th
Starting 5 Cap: $64.059.989

A lot of things clicked for this Orlando team in 2018, led by their largely unnkown star, Nikola Vucevic, and a rise ups from Aaron Gordon & Terrence Ross. While Gordon's $20M per contract seemed silly at the time, having him as a centerpiece going forward is big, especially with the likes of Vucevic, & Ross on expiring contracts. They'll see a Toronto team in the first round whom they split the regular season series with. Will this team stick together after 2018-19?

Upcoming Draft Picks: 2
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $22M
Notable Free Agents: Nikola Vucevic, Terrence Ross

8. Detroit Pistons

Odds: 150/1
2018-19 Cap: $123,481,463
Starting 5 Cap: $77,788,213

The 41-41 Pistons held the 8th highest payroll in 2018-19, and are rewarded with a first round matchup against Milwaukee, a team who swept them in the regular season. But with 4 of 5 starters under contract in 2019, it's possible they're one year away from really making a run in the West. They won't have cap space to improve this team so look for a creative offseason from Detroit.

Upcoming Draft Picks: 2
2019-20 Practical Cap Space: $-8.7M
Notable Free Agents: Wayne Ellington, Ishmael Smith

2019 Opening Day MLB Payrolls

Michael GinnittiMarch 28, 2019
After an offseason that slowly but surely found its way to nearly $1.8 billion in free agent signings, the 2019 MLB regular season is upon on us. We've broken down the financial figures for the upcoming season by team, highlighting how the opening day total roster, 25-man roster, & 40-man luxury tax payrolls break down.
2019 MLB Total Roster Payrolls

The following table breaks down the opening day payrolls for each 2019 MLB team. The Total Payroll column includes all team allocations, including active roster, disabled list, buried, retained, or suspended salaries. The 25-Man Roster payroll includes just the 25 players who have been selected for opening day, while the Luxury Tax payroll includes all players currently on the 40-man roster.

 

Notable Notes

  • The Boston Red Sox lead all teams with a $225M payroll, thanks to a starting-5 rotation that accounts for $88M. They'e also the Tax Payroll leaders at an estimated $238M, $32M north of the cap.
  • The Cubs will send out an Opening Day 25-Man roster that accounts for over $193M, $12M more than any team & $144M more than the last play Rays at $49M.
  • The Red Sox, Cubs, and Yankees currently sit above the $206M tax cap, while the Dodgers & Nats are within reach.
  • Despite bloated salaries in years past, the Dodgers' Opening Day 25-Man roster accounts for just $100M, 17th most in MLB. This is due in large part to injuries as noted below.
  • The Dodgers ($52M), Yankees ($52M), & Mets ($47) lead all teams in Injured List salary to start the 2019 campaign, while 12 teams are carrying less than $10M here.
 Total Payroll25-Man RosterLuxury Tax Payroll
Arizona Diamondbacks $122,858,766 $100,359,166 $135,150,834
Atlanta Braves $114,382,103 $89,601,043 $125,778,310
Baltimore Orioles $73,239,882 $52,181,882 $83,821,100
Boston Red Sox $225,183,602 $181,541,000 $238,291,667
Chicago Cubs $212,077,714 $193,702,714 $221,793,167
Chicago White Sox $89,902,001 $83,791,001 $112,997,001
Cincinnati Reds $126,423,214 $106,440,714 $143,970,238
Cleveland Indians $119,241,701 $88,713,833 $121,958,383
Colorado Rockies $146,346,833 $142,599,333 $165,080,166
Detroit Tigers $116,478,400 $97,988,900 $111,543,400
Houston Astros $160,774,666 $147,619,666 $192,034,329
Kansas City Royals $100,563,292 $67,864,767 $98,399,283
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim $159,330,083 $132,126,583 $182,894,465
Los Angeles Dodgers $197,701,668 $100,238,334 $197,063,333
Miami Marlins $71,903,332 $69,583,642 $78,845,952
Milwaukee Brewers $124,755,400 $108,403,700 $146,389,362
Minnesota Twins $121,276,933 $101,056,933 $134,985,267
New York Mets $158,390,930 $94,483,430 $194,135,003
New York Yankees $140,092,857 $107,200,000 $217,229,075
Oakland Athletics $102,315,833 $94,908,333 $111,851,383
Philadelphia Phillies $140,711,962 $131,152,962 $188,674,782
Pittsburgh Pirates $73,641,002 $64,553,002 $80,685,800
San Diego Padres $100,106,200 $63,991,000 $122,152,233
San Francisco Giants $172,629,652 $151,629,652 $154,539,981
Seattle Mariners $148,898,474 $109,207,510 $153,660,378
St. Louis Cardinals $163,370,266 $125,365,166 $173,190,855
Tampa Bay Rays $64,901,866 $49,112,066 $93,351,867
Texas Rangers $126,575,499 $104,362,499 $128,637,762
Toronto Blue Jays $116,037,171 $60,339,171 $127,594,314
Washington Nationals $161,874,927 $153,918,961 $197,692,076
AVERAGES: $133,659,694 $106,755,141 $147,813,059

Related:

2019 NFL Free Agency Guide

Michael GinnittiMarch 07, 2019

As the 2019 NFL League year approaches we'll dive into our annual Free Agency Primer, highlighting notable players set to hit the open market at each position, their potential market value where applicable, and a few thoughts going forward. Keep up with the upcoming chaos @spotrac.

 

Related Free Agency Links:

Quarterbacks
PlayerTeamPOsAge2018 AAVMarket ValueThoughts
Nick Foles PHI QB 30 $5.5M $19.2M The Eagles did Foles a solid by letting him walk this spring, and he'll very likely be rewarded with a healthy contract in Jacksonville. Something to the tune of the 3 year, $54M contract they recklessly handed Blake Bortles last March makes sense.
Teddy Bridgewater NO QB 27 $6M $6M It's tough to value a player who's barely played a down since coming back from a horrific injury, but that's what a few teams are trying to do this spring. He's got a chance to be a great value for a team in need (Washington, Miami, Tampa). But don't sleep on teams like the Pats, Chargers, or Steelers bringing him in for their upcoming Post-Hall of Fame QB window.
Case Keenum DEN QB 31 $18M $10M Ok, so technically he's not yet a free agent at the time of this piece, but all signs point to him becoming available with the acquisition of Flacco. Keenum's value is in the tank right now, so a team in need can grab him at top backup pay most likely. A stopgap signing for Washington makes a lot of sense here.
Tyrod Taylor CLE QB 30 $15.25M $6M

Taylor gave way to Baker Mayfield fairly quickly last season, so his time as a legitimate starting QB may be nearing an end. But he makes a lot of sense as competitive backup option for teams like the Ravens, Texans, Rams, or Saints.,
Honorable Mention: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Robert Griffin III, Brock Osweiler

» View all 2019 Free Agent Quarterbacks

 

 

Running Backs
PlayerTeamPOSAge2018 AAVMarket ValueThoughts
Le'Veon Bell PIT RB 27 $14.5M $16M While his calculated market value can't get above $11M because of a dying market around him, a 2-year comparison between Bell & Gurley has Bell 12% ahead, which would mean a $16M AAV for the 27-year-old. It seems a likely ask for teams like the Raiders, Ravens, Eagles, Texans, Colts or Jets to entertain.
Tevin Coleman ATL RB 26 $804,843 $5.3M Coleman has been the guy behind Freeman for the past 4 seasons in Atlanta. He'll get a chance to seek a starting role & contract this March, but shouldn't break the bank in doing so. He's the likely Plan B for teams missing out on Bell.
Mark Ingram NO RB 29 $4M $3.5M Nearing that dreaded 30-years-old mark, Ingram saw his touches and production drop in 2018 thanks to a wide open Saints offense. There's reason to believe he's still a worthy 2-year contract candidate this March. He has Philadelphia written all over him.
T.J. Yeldon JAC RB 25 $1.4M $3.5M Yeldon makes the list because he's still relatively young (25), and hasn't taken much of a beating as the #2 to Fournette the past few seasons. Character & Effort questions will turn some teams away, but a moderate price tag for a a high-ceiling guy will have him signed.
Latavius Murray MIN RB 28 $5M $2.5M Murray fell out of favor almost immediately in Minnesota, but still managed 6 rushing TDs in 2018. He's got a chance to be this year's Doug Martin, on a near minimum salary, but still very productive in a specific role. A return to Oakland actually makes sense.
Honorable Mention: Adrian Peterson, Jay Ajayi, Alex Collins, Javorius Allen

 » View all 2019 Free Agent Running Backs

 

Wide Receivers
PlayerTeamPOSAge2018 AAVMarket ValueThoughts
Tyrell Williams LAC WR 27 $2.9M $9.6M A legitimate deep threat for Philip Rivers the past 3 seasons, he'll be a top target for teams who need to go over the top of secondaries more in 2019. The Packers & Panthers come to mind for Williams.
Adam Humphries TB WR 26 $2.9M $10.4M Humphries is likely on plenty of team's wishlist boards right now, as he appears to be the next version of Adam Thielen. He won't break the bank as a slot receiver, but his production can't be ignored.
John Brown BAL WR 29 $5M $6.1M Brown will enter free agency as the cheaper, but older, option to Tyrell Williams. He settled into a nice role in Baltimore, and quite frankly should be brought back by the Ravens for another go.
Devin Funchess CAR WR 25 $1.3M $8.9M Funchess didn't fill up the stat sheet in his four years in Carolina, but he did manage to find the end zone regular. He's a strong target for teams looking to improve their red zone production. The Bills, Lions, & 49ers are fits here.
Golden Tate PHI WR 31 $6.2M $10.2M Tate was the big deadline acquisition in 2018, and settled in nicely with the Eagles for the stretch run. He'll be a perfect #2 option for Tom Brady in New England for the next two seasons.
Honorable Mention: Cole Beasley, Donte Moncrief, Randall Cobb, Dez Bryant

» View all 2019 Free Agent Wide Receivers

 

Tight Ends
PlayerTeamPOSAge2018 AAVMarket ValueThoughts
Jared Cook OAK TE 32 $5.3M $7.1M He's the most productive TE on the open market, but also one of the oldest. But coming off back to back career seasons in a lowly Raiders offense should keep him in good standing for a deal. He earned almost $6M in 2018, but that price tag might jump to $7M plus based on his production.
Jesse James PIT TE 25 $622k $6M James was an adequate option in the passing for Pittsburgh, but a well-rounded TE to boot. He's struggled to find the end zone early in his career, but the 25-year-old will garner a multi-year deal based on his potential.
Tyler Kroft CIN TE 26 $750k $5.2M 2018 was supposed to be the breakout year Kroft, finally taking the reigns over from Tyler Eifert in Cincy. A broken foot put that to rest, but the 26-year-old can run routes, find the end zone, and block for the running game. He's got a chance to cash in nicely on a team like the Bills, Falcons, or Texans.
Dwayne Allen NE TE 29 $7.35M $2.5M He's certainly not a $7M TE, but he was a viable 6th offensive lineman at times for the Patriots. Teams that will be relying heavily on the run game in 2019 should be high on Allen, notably the Bills, Ravens, Cardinals.
Tyler Eifert CIN TE 28 $5.5M $6.4M Injuries have stolen what was lining up to be a really nice career. If he's healthy, a likely near-minimum deal for Eifert could be one of the better values of the entire offseason. In the little time he's played the past two seasons he's still producing at a $6M+ level. While teams won't touch that price point with him due to age/injury history, he's got real a chance to be a steal.
Honorable Mention: Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Demetrius Harris, C.J. Uzomah, Maxx Williams

» View all 2019 Free Agent Tight Ends

 

Offensive Linemen
PlayerTeamPOSAge2018 AAVMarket ValueThoughts
Trenton Brown NE OT 26 $583k $14.4M Buyer beware: Linemen who look great on the Patriots don't always translate elsewhere. But Brown appears to be a truly talented blindside blocker. He's got a chance to approach Nate Solder's $15.5M per year value.
Matt Paradis DEN OC 29 $2.9M $10.8M A broken leg derailed a likely big-time extension candidate for the Broncos in 2018. Assuming he can pass his physicals, this is has Ryan Jensen's $10.5M deal written all over it.
Daryl Williams CAR OT 27 $709k $7.8M The advanced metrics aren't too kind to Williams, but he's arguably the best available Right Tackle on the market. Because the Bills need one, and appear to be OK signing every Panthers' cast-off, this seems like a done deal.
Rodger Saffold LAR OG 31 $6.3M $7.1M The Rams can't afford to keep everyone, and a 31-year-old guard is tough to re-sign, but they should really be sitting hard on letting Saffold walk this March. Jared Goff is only as good as the guys in front of him.
Ja'Wuan James MIA OT 27 $9.3M $6.8M The Dolphins never fell in love with James over the course of 5 seasons, but a change of scenery could push-start a nice career. He's arguably the second best available right tackle on the open market,
Honorable Mention:Mitch Morse (OC), Ben Garland (OG), John Miller (OG)

» View all 2019 Free Agent Offensive Linemen

 

Defensive Tackles
PlayerTeamPOSAge2018 AAVMarket ValueThoughts
Sheldon Richardson MIN DT 28 $8M $9M Played out 2018 on a "show-me" deal with the Vikings and was a viable run-stuffer, with a bit of pass-rush production as well. While price tag likely won't change too much, he'll be pushing for a multi-year contract this offsaeson.
Ndamukong Suh LAR DT 32 $14M $15.4M Suh was a quiet, productive piece of an outstanding Rams DL in 2018. While they likely can't afford to bring him back, he's still worth a high price point to teams with cap to burn, though his $15M+ calculated valuation might be ambitious for age 32.
Timmy Jernigan PHI DT 26 $12M $8.5M The Eagles opted-out of the final two years of Jernigan's deal, which was much too rich in a declining DT market. It's very possible the two sides work out a restructured deal before free agency gets here.
Danny Shelton NE DT 26 $2.9M $5M The former 1st-rounder has been reduced to a solid run-stuffer, and will be paid accordingly. Star Lotulelei's $10M per year deal is an unlikely ceiling here.
Darius Philon LAC DT 25 $600k $5M It's somewhat surprising that the Chargers appear poised to let both Philon & Corey Liuget walk this March. At just 25, Philon appears to have prime years ahead of him, and has pass-rush production already on the resume. He's a sleeper for a major pay day next week.
Honorable Mention:Muhammad Wilkerson, David Irving, Malcom Brown, Corey Liuget

» View all 2019 Free Agent Defensive Tackles

 

EDGE Defenders
PlayerTeamPOSAge2018 AAVMarket ValueThoughts
Trey Flowers NE DE 26 $709k $15.7M I know the Patriots never pay these kind of players, but this seems like a really tough one to let walk. Flowers has a chance to surpass the $20M per year mark based on his production, and the fact that the other top EDGE players were franchise tagged.
Ezekiel Ansah DET DE 30 $17.1M $13.6M Ansah played half a season on an expensive franchise tag, so it's understandabel that Detroit will let him walk this go around. Brandon Graham's recent $13M+ deal seems to be a good target for the oft-injured pass rusher.
Za'Darius Smith BAL OLB 26 $690k $9M Smith is a total dark-horse this offseason. He's an all-around producer off the edge, and is just now hitting his prime years. He's a good fit to replace Clay Matthews in GB.
Shaquil Barrett DEN OLB 26 $2.9M $7.1M Barrett was the low man on the totem pole on a strong Broncos line the past few seasons, which has his valuation tempered. He'll get a chance to be someone's number one pass rusher this offseason, and should be right there with Za'Darius Smith in terms of price.
Dante Fowler Jr. LAR DE 25 $5.8M $9.1M Still just 25, Fowler's production and effort improved mightily when he joined a crowded Rams' defensive line. His limited resume over the past few seasons will keep his value moderate, meaning he has the potential to be a steal this spring.
Honorable Mention:Preston Smith (OLB), Alex Okafor (DE), Terrell Suggs (OLB), Henry Anderson (DE)

» View all 2019 Free Agent Edge Defenders

 

Linebackers
PlayerTeamPOSAge2018 AAVMarket ValueThoughts
Kwon Alexander TB ILB 25 $689k $10.2M An ACL injury plus the Buccaneers willingness to let him walk raises some eyebrows, but a 25-year-old Alexander remains the best available interior linebacker on the market. All of the above temperes his value down to around $10M right now.
Anthony Barr MIN OLB 27 $3.1M $8.3M The Vikings just simply ran out of money to allocate to their defense. Barr's a hell of a player to hit the open market. He's also an OLB that doesn't often rush the pass, so the price-point won't break the bank.
C.J. Mosley BAL ILB 27 $2.1M $10.6M It's telling that the Ravens are willing to part with the 27-year-old captain of their defense (among other cuts), but for a team in need of a leader & a tackling machine, this will be a steal. Just feels like a Raiders kind of move...
Jordan Hicks PHI LB 27 $748k $8.3M Hicks poses a durability red flag, but when healthy has been solid across the board. His lack of elite production in any major stat category will keep his price-point low, offering strong value for teams willing to take a chance on him.
K.J. Wright SEA OLB 30 $6.75M $5.1M Speaking of taking a chance, Wright suffered a bad knee in injury in 2018, putting his short-term future in question. He'll need to find a landing spot where he won't be asked to do too much, and it's very possible he links back up with Sherman in San Francisco.
Honorable Mention:Deone Bucannon (LB/DB), Mark Barron (LB, DB), Denzel Perryman (LB)

» View all 2019 Free Agent Linebackers

 

Cornerbacks
PlayerTeamPOSAge2018 AAVMarket ValueThoughts
Bryce Callahan CHI CB 27 $1.9M $6.3M The best available slot-corner on the market should price himself out of Chicago's capabilities, putting teams like the Panthers, Ravens, and Redskins in line.
Kevin Johnson HOU CB 27 $2.5M $4.8M Injuries (concussiosn) have Johnson's grades and value tempered right now, but unlike many of the other available CBs, Johnson has shown he can be a legitimate shut down defender. If he's healthy, this has value-signing written all over it.
Steven Nelson KC CB 26 $729k $10M It's obviously a weak CB market if we're including anyone from KC's secondary, but Nelson's age and advanced metrics put him in a nice spot to compete for a starting role elsewhere.
Bradley Roby DEN CB 27 $1.7M $11.5M A new regime in Denver, and a questionale new contract forth-coming for Chris Harris appear to be pushing Roby to the open market. He's a legitimate starting CB and could be the financial bread-winner of this free agent CB class.
Ronald Darby PHI CB 25 $1.1M $10,8M Darby was valuing at starting CB money before his ACL gave way in Novemeber. The 25-year-old has plenty of time to heal up and hit his prime in stride. Someone's going to snag him at a value right now, and would be smart to do so with a multi-year deal to allow for him to come back slowly.
Honorable Mention: Pierre Desir, Darqueze Dennard (slot), Jason McCourty, Morris Claiborne

» View all 2019 Free Agent Cornerbacks

 

Safeties
PlayerTeamPOSAge2018 AAVMarket ValueThoughts
Landon Collins NYG FS 25 $1.5M $8.6M Advanced stats have crushed Collins over his first few seasons, but the 25-year-old has plenty of time to his his prime in stride, especially with a change of scenery. It's possible he becomes Earl Thomas' replacement in Seattle next week.
Earl Thomas SEA FS 30 $10M $12.5M Earl Thomas gave the Seahawks a pretty good indication of his intentions this March as he was carted off the field with a broken leg. With that said, even at 30, a healthy Earl Thomas is still worth near $10M on the right team. The Texans feel like a fit.
Tyrann Mathieu HOU FS 27 $7M $9M Mathieu had a quiet but productive "prove it" year in Houston, but the Texans appear poised to move on. He'll likely be seeking a multi-year deal this March, and the Colts/Ravens seem to make a lot of sense.
Adrian Amos CHI FS 26 $628k $8M Amos isn't the best coverage safety of this lot, but he makes up for it with speed, tackling, and leadership from the backfield. Tennessee loves these typeof players.
HaHa Clinton-Dix WAS FS 26 $2M $9.6M The Packers decision to trade HaHa plus the Redskins decision to not tender him for a few more years are both somewhat puzzling, but Clinton-Dix will land on his feet quickly this March.
Honorable Mention:Kareem Jackson (SS), Eric Weddle (FS), LaMarcus Joyner (FS), Kenny Vaccaro (SS)

» View all 2019 Free Agent Safeties

 

Special Teamers
PlayerTeamPOSAge2018 AAVMarket ValueThoughts
Jason Myers NYJ K 28 $705k $4M Myers was 90%+ in both FGs and PATs in 2018, putting him on track for a nice pay raise in 2019. He's likely a $4M per year man soon.
Stephen Gostkowski NE K 35 $4.3M $3.8M Gostkowski showed signs of being human in 2018, as his FG % dipped under 85%. It's tough to imagine the Patriots won't try to bring him back on something near minimum if he's not offered a significant contract elsewhere.
Pat O'Donnell CHI P 28 $1.5M   O'Donnell was a bottom-half rated punter in terms of Net Yardage and punts inside the 20, but he appears to be the class of this free agent punter class.
Matt Bryant ATL K 44 $3.3M   It's understanable that the Falcons couldn't afford to keep Bryant at his current price, but the 44-year-old hit 95% of his FG & 94% of his PATs in 2018. It seems he'll find a team if he wants to.
» View all 2019 Free Special Teamers
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