Keith SmithNovember 04, 2024

The 2024 NBA offseason and early-season transaction period is behind us. Minus a handful of signings here and there, NBA transactions will go dormant until trade season opens up in mid-to-late-December. With extensions largely completed (for now!) and 2025-26 rookie scale team option decisions made, it’s time to look forward!

The 2025 NBA offseason looks like a weird one. The new media rights money will start hitting, but the NBA and NBPA agreed to cap the cap growth at no more than 10% from one year to the next. That means the cap is projected to go from $140.6 million this season to just over $154.6 million for next season. That $14 million jump is a big one, but it’s not going to result in a whole of cap space around the NBA.

The reason for that is teams have gotten really aggressive in recent years with extensions. More and more players are forgoing free agency and taking the certainty of extensions. This past year, the only big-name All-Star to change teams via direct free agency was Paul George. A few others moved via sign-and-trades and standard trades, but free agency itself wasn’t how stars moved.

That’s likely to continue in the summer of 2025. As you’ll see, there’s not a lot of cap space projected to be out there this summer. Also, the free agent class projects to be devoid of stars. Most of the All-Star level guys are good bets to re-sign with their current teams, or to extend before free agency opens.

However, that doesn’t mean having spending power is completely useless. With the Apron Era fully upon us, NBA teams are embracing exceptions in different ways. This summer, there will be some value signings available, simply because the means to overpay those players as free agents aren’t available. That should make for an active summer of role player movement, in addition to the usual handful of big trades.

With all that said, here’s how things look today for 2025 spending power around the NBA. This can, and will, change throughout the season. Teams will make decisions about the future up through the trade deadline. That will create more spending power for some, while using it up for others.

(Note: These projections are made using the noted cap and tax figures above, draft pick cap holds based on projected standings and a projection on all option and guarantee decisions by players and teams. No extensions or trades have been projected. We will call out where those types of situations could impact a team projection.)

Cap Space Teams – 2 Teams

  1. Brooklyn Nets: $40.7 million

  2. Washington Wizards: $27.5 million

Two teams project to have cap space in the summer of 2025. That’s it. (For reference: I’ve been doing cap space projections for well over a decade and have never had a year-out projection with just two teams.) That’s how much guaranteed money is already on the books for next season around the NBA.

Brooklyn gets to north of $40 million fairly easily. They let all of their free agents walk, at least initially, minus restricted free agents Cam Thomas and Day’Ron Sharpe. If Dorian Finney-Smith opts out – a true 50-50 decision – the Nets will have nearly $55 million in cap space. And, of course, this roster is a work-in-progress. So, don’t be surprised if Brooklyn sheds more money, or possibly takes some more on for future assets. Sean Marks is just getting started with his second rebuild.

Washington is still in the “deconstruction phase” with their roster, per their own front office. That means this projection is pretty tenuous. The Wizards could move off some money, with a whole bunch of tradable veterans. But that might come via taking on some onerous money, while adding more draft capital and young talent. For now, the flexibility is what really matters for the Wizards.

Swing Cap Space and Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 2 Teams

  1. Charlotte Hornets

  2. Utah Jazz

It’s unlikely either of these teams will go the cap space route. Charlotte has players they’d like to re-sign and keep on their roster (Tre Mann, Cody Martin, Nick Richards), which will likely keep them from having cap space.

In order for the Jazz to get to having some cap space, they’d have to move John Collins or he’d have to opt out. Given the landscape this summer, Collins won’t recoup the $25.6 million he’ll make on his option. So, leave him on the Utah books for now. In addition, the Jazz project to have three first-round picks, including the potential first overall selection. That’s going to add decent chunk of change to the cap sheet too.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 10 Teams

  1. Atlanta Hawks

  2. Chicago Bulls

  3. Detroit Pistons

  4. Houston Rockets

  5. LA Clippers

  6. Memphis Grizzlies

  7. Oklahoma City Thunder

  8. Portland Trail Blazers

  9. San Antonio Spurs

  10. Toronto Raptors

As per usual, this group features a mix of title contenders, playoff contenders and rebuilding teams.

For the rebuilding teams, the Bulls are still digging out from underneath some signings and extensions they made when they were chasing contention. The cap sheet is cleaning up, but not quite there yet. And a new deal for Josh Giddey is looming too.

The Pistons took on a good chunk of money this past offseason in some of their deals. They’ve got pretty good flexibility overall, but this summer doesn’t project to be one of big spending in Detroit.

Portland is still dealing with the fallout from the Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday trades. They took on more money than was desirable in those deals, but it’s not the end of the world. This situation is also pretty volatile, as the Blazers have a lot of veterans who could be on the move via trades. Keep an eye on Portland.

Some might be surprised to see the Spurs not in the cap space group. San Antonio projects to have three first-round picks in the upcoming draft. All of them currently project to land between the fifth and fifteenth pick. That, combined with previous deals, eats up the Spurs cap space.

Toronto used up any chance of having cap space when they extended Scottie Barnes, re-signed Immanuel Quickley and extended Kelly Olynyk. No complaints though, as those were all solid signings. The good news is that the Raptors have some money coming off the books, and that should leave room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Hawks, Rockets, Clippers and Grizzlies are all in roughly the same spots. All are would-be playoff teams. The first three are still retooling their rosters, but should have enough room to use the Non-Taxpayer MLE. The Grizzlies are mostly there with their roster, but have so few spots to fill, that they should be fine using the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Then we have the Thunder. The big spending of last summer won’t be repeated, but that doesn’t mean Oklahoma City doesn’t have flexibility. One of the NBA’s best teams is young, talented and the front office has a pretty clean cap sheet and still has a whole bunch of draft picks to trade. Good luck to the other 29 teams!

Swing Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 5 teams

  1. Indiana Pacers

  2. Los Angeles Lakers

  3. New Orleans Pelicans

  4. Orlando Magic

  5. Philadelphia 76ers

All playoff contenders in this group, with a couple hopeful of being more than that.

The Pacers have been pretty conservative with spending over the years. Recently, Indiana has been aggressive about extending and re-signing their own players. If that continues with Myles Turner in free agency this summer, the Pacers will be closer to having the Taxpayer MLE than the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The Lakers created some flexibility by declining the third-year rookie scale option for Jalen Hood-Schifino. With LeBron James newfound willingness to help Los Angeles create some spending power, don’t be surprised if they maneuver to having the Non-Taxpayer MLE. The one caveat: If the Lakers make a big in-season trade this year, that could wipe out any future flexibility.

New Orleans has never paid the tax in franchise history. They probably won’t start that this year, as they are close enough to dodging the tax line to do so. That said, working right around the margins will continue for at least another year. Then things should free up a bit in 2026. Keep an eye on what happens with Brandon Ingram here. That will decide a lot of where the Pelicans are headed cap-/tax-wise.

The Magic locked into a whole bunch of long-term money this past offseason. That’s going to have them dancing around the luxury tax line and possibly even living in between the tax aprons. Having some team options on the books could give them the flexibility to drop salary and open up the Non-Taxpayer MLE, but they seem pretty content with the roster right now.

The Sixers pulled off the rare feat of using cap space and ending up as a tax team this season. That’s how much having Tyrese Maxey on a low cap hold meant to Philadelphia. Next year, they could create some additional wiggle room by moving off a couple of non-guaranteed deals. But the more likely path is that Daryl Morey will swing a trade or two this season to take on some money into next year. That’ll put the 76ers in Taxpayer MLE range or maybe even into second apron range.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams – 2 teams

  1. Golden State Warriors

  2. Sacramento Kings

The Warriors and Kings are similar spots. Both did a lot of maneuvering this past offseason and that’s got them with a good amount of money on the books, with more likely getting added soon.

Golden State has some key free agents in Jonathan Kuminga, De’Anthony Melton, Kevon Looney and Gary Payton II. If they re-sign those guys, especially Kuminga, they’ll be back over the tax and nearing the second apron.

The Kings issue is more about the number of roster spots that they have to fill. Half of the Sacramento roster is going to hit free agency this summer. That likely includes Keon Ellis, who the Kings would be smart to decline their team option for, so that they can control the process with Ellis as a restricted free agent. With six players making between $11 million and $44 million, that doesn’t leave a ton of extra spending power.

Swing Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception Teams and Second Apron Teams – 6 teams

  1. Cleveland Cavaliers

  2. Dallas Mavericks

  3. Denver Nuggets

  4. Miami Heat

  5. Milwaukee Bucks

  6. Minnesota Timberwolves

The good news? All of these teams are playoff teams. The bad news? They are all really, really expensive playoff teams.

For the Cavs, this is mostly about what happens with Caris LeVert. If he’s re-signed to a fair-value deal, Cleveland will be a second apron team. If he’s not, they might have just enough room to squeeze in a signing with the Taxpayer MLE.

Dallas is dependent on what happens with Kyrie Irving. If he opts out and pushes for a max or near-max deal, the Mavs will be near the second apron. If Irving opts in, or re-signs for a similar salary with additional years tacked on, Dallas might be able to get to the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

Denver is in the same spot they’ve been in before. They can use the Non-Taxpayer MLE to fill one of their couple of open roster spots. But let’s not give out any second-year player options this time, ok?

Miami is all about Jimmy Butler. If he’s back, the Heat are dancing around the first and second aprons. If Butler moves on, then Miami could have some unexpected flexibility. This is a pretty massive summer for the Heat, both in the short- and long-term.

As for Milwaukee and Minnesota, they may be able to dip under the second apron. If one of Khris Middleton or Brook Lopez is gone, the Bucks will have a bunch of flexibility. If they’re both back, they’ll be over the second apron. This is very much a year-to-year thing in Milwaukee right now.

The Wolves are in an interesting spot. Rudy Gobert declining his option and extending freed up about $10 million in flexibility. We project Julius Randle to opt in (he won’t have big offers this summer with a lack of cap space around the league), but Minnesota still has to re-sign Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. If they do that, they’ll be up over the second apron again.

Second Apron Teams (no signing exceptions) – 3 Teams

  1. Boston Celtics

  2. New York Knicks

  3. Phoenix Suns

This group got halved from last year’s projections. The combination of the cap going up and some money coming off the books took four to five teams to within range of dodging the second apron.

Boston is all but guaranteed to be a second apron team. They’ll probably even challenge Phoenix for the largest payroll in the league. The big questions: Is Al Horford back? And how much will he cost the Celtics in salary plus tax penalties, if he is?

Phoenix is in the same spot they’ve been in for a bit now. Super expensive without much recourse to not be super expensive. But this past summer’s moves made more sense than the first time the Suns were in this spot. That signals Phoenix may be figuring out how to live as a second apron team.

That leaves the Knicks, who are in a really interesting spot. They’ve got nearly $195 million committed for just nine players. That leaves six roster spots to fill, which means they’ll push over the second apron. The real intrigue comes with how far they’ll push over. Will they re-sign Precious Achiuwa to bank some tradable salary, if for no other reason? Beyond that, trades (made within the host of second-apron restrictions) and signing a host of players to minimum deals is what we can expect in New York this summer.

Keith SmithOctober 22, 2024

NBA Opening Night is here! It doesn’t come with quite the fanfare of Major League Baseball’s Opening Day or NFL Kickoff Weekend, but the NBA is back. The Boston Celtics will get their rings and raise a record 18th banner to the rafters. Then, the chase for the 2025 title is on.

With the regular season upon us, NBA teams have finalized their opening night rosters. The league’s financial landscape has never been more complex. The days of being under the cap, over the cap or over the tax are long gone. Now, we have first and second aprons, and 10 different ways to become hard-capped at those aprons.

But don’t fret! We’ve got you covered with where each team stands with the 2024-25 NBA season tipping off.

Team Salary Landscape

There are now five buckets that teams fall in, depending on how much team salary they are carrying. We’ll run through them in order of most to least expensive.

Second Apron Teams

Boston Celtics: $7.6 million over the second apron

Milwaukee Bucks: $6.5 million over the second apron

Minnesota Timberwolves: $17.2 million over the second apron

Phoenix Suns: $31.5 million over the second apron

The full weight of the second apron has come to bear this season. After a transitional year, which saw only some of the second apron restrictions kick in, the NBA’s most expensive teams are handcuffed like never before.

The good news for Boston, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Phoenix? All are title contenders. The bad news? None of this foursome has the ability to add much throughout the year. At least not without subtracting key rotation players to do so.

First Apron Teams

Denver Nuggets: $5.6 million over the first apron

Los Angeles Lakers: $10.8 million over the first apron

Miami Heat: $9.2 million over the first apron

New York Knicks: $7.2 million over the first apron

Philadelphia 76ers: $4.6 million over the first apron

The first apron is only slightly less restrictive than the second apron. It’s a little easier for these teams to make trades and the like, but only a little easier.

Much like the second apron group, the first apron teams all fancy themselves as title contenders. That’s definitely true of the Nuggets, Knicks and Sixers. Lakers and Heat? We’ll see if their veteran stars can drag them there one more time.

Luxury Tax Teams

Cleveland Cavaliers: $1.7 million over the luxury tax

Dallas Mavericks: $5.4 million over the luxury tax

Golden State Warriors: $5.8 million over the luxury tax

LA Clippers: $2.5 million over the luxury tax

New Orleans Pelicans: $1.6 million over the luxury tax

This group is a mixed bag of good teams. The Mavericks are title contenders. The Cavaliers are hopeful of climbing into the contender tier. The Warriors, Clippers and Pelicans are part of a large group of teams battling for playoffs spots in a deep Western Conference.

The challenge for everyone in this group but the Cavs? They are all hard-capped at the first apron. That’s going to make adding to their roster in-season a difficult task.

Over The Cap Teams

Atlanta Hawks: $1.3 million under the luxury tax

Brooklyn Nets: $2.1 million under the luxury tax

Charlotte Hornets: $10.4 million under the luxury tax

Chicago Bulls: $4.5 million under the luxury tax

Houston Rockets: $10.5 million under the luxury tax

Indiana Pacers: $3.2 million under the luxury tax

Memphis Grizzlies: $3.9 million under the luxury tax

Oklahoma City Thunder: $11.5 million under the luxury tax

Orlando Magic: $20.5 million under the luxury tax

Portland Trail Blazers: $3.7 million under the luxury tax

Sacramento Kings: $3.7 million under the luxury tax

San Antonio Spurs: $21.1 million under the luxury tax

Toronto Raptors: $9.3 million under the luxury tax

Utah Jazz: $27.2 million under the luxury tax

Washington Wizards: $11.9 million under the luxury tax

As per usual, the NBA’s largest group of teams is living over the cap, but under the tax. This group is a mix of playoff contenders and rebuilding squads, outside of the Thunder, who are a title contender.

This is where the moves will happen. When there are trades in-season, expect these teams to be involved, either as direct parties or as helpful facilitators.

Under The Cap Team

Detroit Pistons: $10.2 million under the cap

The days of multiple teams hitting the season with oodles of cap space available are over. Teams have to hit the salary floor now, or they miss out on the end-of-year luxury tax disbursement. The Pistons have hit the floor, but enter the season as the league’s lone cap space team.

Detroit is also sitting on an open roster spot (more on that in a bit). That means they’ll be everyone’s favorite third team in complicated trades, especially between hard-capped teams (more on that in a bit too!). That should have new front office boss Trajan Langdon ready to pick off additional assets for his still-rebuilding team.


Hard Caps

Over half of the NBA is facing a hard cap at either the first or second apron. With 10 ways to become hard-capped now, teams are facing more roadblocks than ever to navigate around as they build their rosters. For each hard-capped team, we’ll break down which apron they are hard-capped at, and how much wiggle room they have.

First Apron Hard-Capped Teams

Atlanta Hawks: $5.4 million under the first apron

Brooklyn Nets: $5.2 million under the first apron

Chicago Bulls: $9.5 million under the first apron

Dallas Mavericks: $386,752 under the first apron

Golden State Warriors: $533,659 under the first apron

Houston Rockets: $15.2 million under the first apron

LA Clippers: $4.9 million under the first apron

New Orleans Pelicans: $4.4 million under the first apron

Oklahoma City Thunder: $17.4 million under the first apron

Sacramento Kings: $8.6 million under the first apron

Toronto Raptors: $10.5 million under the first apron

Washington Wizards: $11.6 million under the first apron

For some of these teams, the hard cap doesn’t really matter. The rebuilding teams aren’t going to end up in range for it to really matter.

For others, like the Mavs and Warriors, they are working up against some extremely tight margins. Golden State doesn’t even have enough room to fill their open 15th roster spot at the moment. The Clippers and Pelicans are somewhat tight to apron too. On the flip side, the Thunder continue to have incredible flexibility for a title contender. If there is a deal Oklahoma City wants to make, they can do so without any real hard cap challenges creeping in.

Second Apron Hard-Capped Teams

Charlotte Hornets: $28.5 million under the second apron

Denver Nuggets: $5.2 million under the second apron

Indiana Pacers: $18.9 million under the second apron

New York Knicks: $3.6 million under the second apron

For the Hornets and Pacers, their second apron hard cap is of no consequence. They won’t get anywhere close enough for it to matter.

The Nuggets have a bit of wiggle room, should they want to make an in-season trade.

As for the Knicks…it’s a challenge. New York did a wonderful job navigating all things CBA this summer to avoid a first apron hard cap. But they’ve still put themselves right up against the second apron. Right now, the Knicks have three open roster spots. They only have enough room to fill two of those spots, with one veteran minimum signing and one rookie minimum signing (and that has to be a player the team held/holds the draft rights for). That’s pretty tight to work around. Expect the Knicks to push the boundaries of how long they can go without 14 players on standard deals (up to two weeks at a time or for 28 total days per season) to try to create any form of additional wiggle room.


Open Roster Spots

Recently, we wrote about The NBA’s Vanishing 15th Roster Spot. To start the season, there are 15 standard roster spots open around the NBA. There are also two open two-way roster spots.

Open Standard Roster Spots

Boston Celtics: 1

Cleveland Cavaliers: 1

Detroit Pistons: 1

Golden State Warriors: 1

Houston Rockets: 1

Indiana Pacers: 1

Memphis Grizzlies: 1

Miami Heat: 1

New Orleans Pelicans: 1

New York Knicks: 3

Philadelphia 76ers: 1

Phoenix Suns: 1

Sacramento Kings: 1

We already covered what’s going on with the Warriors and Knicks. For the Celtics, Cavaliers, Heat, Pelicans, Sixers and Suns, this is about managing their luxury tax situation. These teams likely won’t fill their open spots until we’re deeper into the season.

The Pistons, Rockets, Pacers, Grizzlies and Kings are likely waiting for the right player. The latter four teams are also pursuing playoff spots, so keeping some additional flexibility is a smart play. And the Pistons could use their open spot to facilitate in-season trades using their remaining cap space, as mentioned earlier.

Open Two-Way Roster Spots

Detroit Pistons: 1

Orlando Magic: 1

These spots will likely get filled sooner, rather than later. Detroit was rumored to be signing Alondes Williams, but as of this writing that signing hasn’t gone official. Orlando may wait to see if any players shake loose early in the season, or if a G League player pops when that season starts in a couple of weeks.


Offseason Spending

For all of the consternation that the “New CBA is ruining the league and no one wants to spend money” teams doled out record sums this 2024 NBA Offseason.

Between free agent contracts, rookie signings and extensions, team committed to nearly $7.5 billion (yes, billion with a “B”) in new money. Of that amount, roughly $6.7 billion is fully guaranteed.

Last season, teams committed to almost $5.9 billion in new money, with $5.5 billion being guaranteed.

That’s an additional $1.6 billion of new money that was introduced into the system this offseason. And the new media rights deals don’t even start until the 2025-26 season.

The NBA is as healthy as it has ever been. The league is fairly wide open, with multiple teams fancying themselves as title contenders. More money is being spent then ever. And expansion is right around the corner. Life is good for all parties involved in the NBA.

Enjoy the season everyone!

 

Keith SmithOctober 18, 2024

NBA teams are wrapping up the preseason, with the regular season just days away.

NBA preseason doesn’t come with the excitement of NFL camp or MLB preseason. Nor does it come with the competition for roster spots. Smaller rosters and more guaranteed money mean that NBA squads are generally set when camp opens.

However, all across the league battles for rotation spots are playing out. Incumbents are trying to hold off newcomers. Young players are trying to break through. Vets are trying to hang on for one more season. In some cases, there are roster spots up for grabs too.

We’re going team by team and looking some of the most interesting battles to monitor as we close in on the regular season. We previously covered the Southwest DivisionNorthwest Division and Pacific Division out west. Then we headed east to cover the Southeast Division and Central Division. Now, we wrap up with a look at the Atlantic Division teams!

Boston Celtics

Big Rotation While Kristaps Porzingis Is Out

The Celtics are going to be without Kristaps Porzingis for the first couple of months of the season. Most expect Boston’s starting center to return sometime around Christmas or New Year’s Day. That means Joe Mazzulla has to figure out how to cover for Porzingis for the first 30 games or so.

Al Horford is back, and he’s the easy answer. Horford started 33 regular season games last season, then 15 of 19 playoff games when Porzingis was out. But it might not be that simple.

Boston knows how important Horford is to their team. They liked having him in a more limited role during last regular season. That kept him fresh and really productive throughout the team’s title run.

In the preseason, the Celtics started Luke Kornet alongside the other set starters. That may carry over to the regular season. That would keep Horford in a reserve role, where he’ll play around 25 minutes or so per game. Kornet has proven perfectly capable of being a productive player since joining the Celtics.

Horford also isn’t going to play back-to-back games this year. That means Boston will need more than Kornet. That’s where Xavier Tillman Sr. and Neemias Queta come in.

Tillman had a rough start to his Celtics tenure. He was injured when he arrived in Boston, then he sadly lost his father very unexpectedly. But the Celtics saw enough in Tillman to re-sign him this summer. He’ll be a part of things, especially if the corner three he’s been flashing proves to be a real thing.

Queta is a big bundle of energy whenever he hits the floor. He’s chaotic, but that’s valuable for a team where the other bigs play a more stable style. Queta is going to get into the mix simply because of his all-out hustle.

Mazzulla is going to have to piece it together until the playoffs. Even after Porzingis returns, the Celtics aren’t going to push him or Horford very hard. Boston’s goal is to be playing in June. That means getting a lot from Kornet, Tillman and Queta from mid-October through mid-April.

Brooklyn Nets

Forward Rotation

Brooklyn is leaning hard into rebuilding. They traded Mikal Bridges for a bundle of picks. They made an associated deal to reacquire their own 2025 first-round pick from the Houston Rockets. And Sean Marks isn’t done dealing either.

As it stands, the Nets backcourt looks fairly set…at least for now. Dennis Schroder and Cam Thomas look like the starters. Some mix of Ben Simmons (he’s healthy and looks good so far), Shake Milton and maybe Keon Johnson and Dariq Whitehead will handle the backup minutes.

Center is similarly settled, at least when everyone is healthy. Nic Claxton starts, Day’Ron Sharpe backs him up and Noah Clowney gets the remaining minutes at the five.

It’s the forward group that is a jumbled mess. Cameron Johnson has a long-term contract, and he’s a good shooter/scorer, so he’s going to be a starter. Dorian Finney-Smith is one of the team’s best defenders, and the Nets wants to keep his trade value high, so he’ll start too.

That leaves Bojan Bogdanovic (who Brooklyn wouldn’t mind boosting the trade value for), Trendon Watford (always productive when he gets minutes), Ziaire Williams (the kind of no-risk flyer that has paid off Marks in the past), Jalen Wilson (closed last season strong) and Simmons and Clowney for backup minutes.

That’s eight players who should see some minutes at the forward spots. Even if you take Simmons and Clowney out of the mix, that leaves six guys. Injuries will leave some guys unavailable at time, so it’ll probably sort itself out. But when everyone is available, new coach Jordi Fernandez has decisions to make.

It’s also worth noting that what will ultimately break up this logjam is Marks making a trade or two. It’s a decent bet that Finney-Smith and Bogdanovic won’t finish the season with the Nets. And it’s possible that Johnson – who other teams like quite a bit – could be on the move too.

New York Knicks

Bench Minutes

The Knicks had a big summer. The trades for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns were blockbuster deals that came from out of nowhere. While those were two terrific acquisitions, those trades did sap New York of a lot of their depth.

Bridges and Towns will join Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart in a very good starting lineup. Behind them, Miles McBride and Precious Achiuwa will have key rotation roles. Then…who knows?

Mitchell Robinson will play – and possibly start in a jumbo lineup that pushes Hart to the bench – when he’s healthy. But that won’t be until some point in January. Until then, Jericho Sims will likely see the backup center minutes behind Towns.

Landry Shamet (coming off an Exhibit 9 training camp deal) looked like he was going to earn minutes as a backup wing. That’s now in question due to a shoulder injury suffered late in the preseason. As of this writing, we don’t have any clarity on how much time Shamet might miss. That makes him even cracking the regular season roster a question mark.

In the course of adding Bridges and Towns, the Knicks find themselves hard-capped at the second tax apron. As of now, New York is about $3.6 million under that second apron with three open roster spots. That means they can only fill one with a veteran minimum deal. That was going to be Shamet, but if he’s out for a lengthy period, the Knicks can’t keep him. They simply don’t have the depth to ride out a long-term absence.

The bench is going to be a series of test-and-adjust trials for Tom Thibodeau. We can make all the jokes about how he’ll just play the starters 45 minutes per night, but Thibodeau needs to cobble together some form of bench. They’ll get there, but it might be a little bumpy until the Knicks figure it out.

Philadelphia 76ers

Wing/Forward Rotation

The Sixers are stacked at center with Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond. It’s hard to find many starter-backup combinations at the five that are better than that one.

Philadelphia also has a bunch of good ballhandling options. Tyrese Maxey is a star. Kyle Lowry is fading, but still getting it done. Eric Gordon remains an efficient scorer/shooter. Reggie Jackson has been a capable backup for years. Ricky Council IV and Jared McCain are good developmental players. And, of course, Paul George, Kelly Oubre Jr. and even Caleb Martin will play as bigger guard options too.

That leaves Nick Nurse with figuring out his wings and forwards. George, Oubre and Martin are all probably going to start. That’s pretty good, even if one of them will have to masquerade a bit as a four. But George and Martin can both handle that, as they have in the past.

It’s behind them where things get a little complicated. Guerschon Yabusele is returning to the NBA to give the 76ers a true power forward. K.J. Martin is super athletic and motived to prove he’s more than just a tradable salary. But that’s about it for forward depth.

Philadelphia can afford to go a bit smaller at the four, because Embiid and Drummond will hold down the paint. Nurse has also been really good at making funky, non-traditional lineups work. There are only a couple of teams who might be able to hurt Philadelphia in their likely one-big, one-ballhandler, three-wing lineup construction. And the Sixers will be able to give it back just as good in those looks. That’s the bet Daryl Morey made when building this roster.

Toronto Raptors

Wing/Guard Rotation

Rebuilding is no longer a dirty word in Toronto. No better a source than Masai Ujiri said so. As such, the Raptors roster is a bit unbalanced right now.

Jakob Poeltl, Kelly Olynyk and Chris Boucher have the big spots handled. Scottie Barnes will start and play most of his minutes as a do-everything, playmaking power forward.

Barnes sliding up to the four full time might be natural progression, but it’s been hastened by the rest of the Raptors roster. This team has a lot of guards and wings.

RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley are both going to start alongside Barnes and Poeltl. Quickley will be the team’s point guard, while Barrett will fill one wing spot. That other perimeter spot is wide open.

Bruce Brown would have been in the mix, but he’s out to open the season after a knee cleanup surgery. Rookie guard Ja’Kobe Walter suffered a preseason shoulder injury and will also be out to open the year.

Even after taking Brown and Walter out of the mix, the Raptors still have Gradey Dick, Ochai Agbaji, Davion Mitchell and 2024 second-rounders Jonathan Mogbo and Jamal Shead.

Dick looks like he’s in line to start. After a rocky start, Dick shot 39% from behind the arc over the season’s last four months. That’s the kind of shooting this team is begging for around Barnes, Barrett and Quickley as playmakers.

Agbaji is at a bit of a crossroads. He flashed at time with the Utah Jazz, but was a mess in Toronto. Agbaji is also 24 years old as a third-year prospect. That suggests he might be closer to a finished product than a still-developing player. Still, Agbaji is going to have a chance at a rotation role, but he needs to make shots to keep it.

Mogbo is the kind of guy who is unassuming at first, but always doing positive stuff when he plays. He’s probably best as a four right now, which means he may soak up whatever minutes are left behind Barnes. Eventually, as his game rounds out, Mogbo should be a nice combo forward off the Raptors bench.

Mitchell and Shead are both bulldogs on defense, which Toronto coach Darko Rajakovic will love. Shead is also a pretty solid playmaker. The big question, like with too many other Raptors, is if they’ll shoot well enough. One of the two will win the backup point guard spot behind Quickley. Bet on Mitchell early, but Shead is going to push him.

In a rebuilding year, none of this overlap in positions is a problem. It’s quite the opposite, as Rajakovic will have great competition for minutes. However, it does mean having some tough conversations with some guys who are used to playing a lot. And when Brown and Walter return, unless Ujiri has swung another trade or two, things will only get more crowded on the perimeter.

 

Keith SmithOctober 16, 2024

When the NBA and the NBPA agreed to the 2017 Collective Bargaining Agreement, they introduced two-way contracts to the league. Each team was given two additional roster spots to sign players to deals that would see them split time between the NBA and the G League.

In the 2023 CBA, two-way spots increased to three per team. In theory, in the span of about six years, the NBA added 90 new roster spots league-wide.

Why “in theory”? Because the tradeoff with the additional two-way spots is a vanishing 15th standard roster spot around the league.

Over the last two years, Spotrac talked to multiple front office executives, coaches, players and agents about the changes in NBA roster-building tactics, especially as it pertains to roster spots in the two-way era. To say that opinions are mixed is an understatement.

“Two-way contracts have all but killed off the 15th spot for most of the year, true training camp invites and a lot of 10 Day contracts too,” a long-time agent told Spotrac. “A lot of teams don’t bother anymore, because they can just use their two-way guys. And don’t get me started on what it’s done to the draft.”

Since the advent of two-way contracts, almost every team has filled their available two-way spots. Outside of the Portland Trail Blazers and Phoenix Suns (who didn’t have their own G League affiliate teams for most of the two-way era), every team filled both spots, and all teams have regularly filled all three two-spots over the last two seasons. Even the Trail Blazers and Suns would eventually fill their spots, despite having to work out a flex assignment arrangement before they had their own G League affiliates.

“Look, we’re all cognizant of the cap and the luxury tax, even more so with hard caps and the aprons,” an Eastern Conference GM said. “Two-way contracts can serve as roster fillers who don’t count against the cap or the tax. That’s a win for teams working around the margins.”

To that point, as regular season rosters are finalized, teams are tighter to those margins than ever. New CBA rules introduced a second tax apron, and a whole host of new rules that can hard cap a team at either the first or second tax apron.

As we approach opening night, 12 NBA teams are hard-capped at the first tax apron. An additional four teams are hard-capped at the second apron. And, if that wasn’t enough, four more teams are already over the second apron, and essentially work as if hard-capped at the second apron.

That’s 20 of 30 NBA teams that are dealing with some form of hard cap or apron-related restrictions. Beyond that, another four teams are at or just over the luxury tax, which has long functioned as an artificial line of demarcation for team salaries.

Those are the margins the Eastern Conference GM was talking about working around. As things have become tighter and more complicated to manage, teams look for advantages where they can get them. Two-way contracts and not filling out the standard roster are a form of advantage that teams are going to use.

An Eastern Conference coach said that’s trickled down to him and his staff too.

“When I first started coaching, the medical team determined who could play and who couldn’t. Maybe around the trade deadline, the front office would tell you to hold a guy out because he was in trade talks,” the coach said. “Now, the front office gives us daily updates on our two-way guys and if they can play or not. That’s on top of the medical stuff and guys who are in trade talks. I love having the extra help, but you can’t get overly reliant on your two-way players. You never know when the front office will say they aren’t available because of game counts.”


With opening night approaching, if we remove Exhibit 9/10 contracts from roster counts, there are currently 19 open standard roster spots around the NBA. The league is required to roster an average of 14.5 players per team on standard contracts. That works out to 435 players against 450 possible standard roster spots.

As you can see, the league is currently four short of reaching that minimum. Now, that will be partially handled by a rule introduced in the 2023 CBA that requires teams to be at a minimum of 14 players for no more than 14 consecutive days (a carryover from previous CBAs) and a total of 28 days (new 2023 CBA addition). Teams will dip under 14 players on standard contracts from time to time, but it won’t last for very long.

However, there is no rule stating that a team has to be at 15 players on standard deals. And that’s where teams have gotten increasingly creative.

“We’re a tax team. We’re already going to get hit with a tax bill. So, a natural question we ask is ‘Does it make sense to fill the 15th spot?’”, a Western Conference front office executive told Spotrac. “Some years, it does. Some years, it doesn’t. Sure, we hope if we don’t fill it, our owner will give us some leeway later, but that doesn’t always happen. Billionaires don’t become billionaires by throwing money away.”

An Eastern Conference front office executive put it in even simpler terms: “Is it worth spending a bunch of money for a guy who isn’t going to play? Our coaches and players will obviously say yes. But our owner will probably say no. My job is to find that happy medium. And with two-way guys and 10 Day deals, we can get around filling that spot until late in the season, if we’re going to be a playoff team.”

A prominent veteran player feels different, for obvious and not-so obvious reasons.

“I’ve been bouncing around for a few years now. It’s way harder to make a team at the end of the bench than it used to be. Some organizations want vets in those spots, but they probably have a guy in that role who they’ve had for years, you know?”, he said. “That means I have to earn my spot by bringing something that team doesn’t have. But even then, if they’d rather develop a kid on a two-way, I know I’m not going to make it. That’s why a lot of guys are just going to Europe or China and taking the money and the big role.”

Of the 19 open roster spots, they belong to 16 different teams. Of those 16 teams, nine are already into the luxury tax. Recent history suggests that most of those teams will leave the 15th spot open going into the season. That’s roughly one-third of the league that will carry an open spot for a while.

Now, to be fair, it’s extremely rare for a team to leave their final roster spot open all season long. As the Eastern Conference front office executive said, a playoff team will almost always fill that 15th spot before the end of the season. That’s because two-way players aren’t eligible to play in the playoffs, and no team wants to be caught with a lack of depth in the postseason, should they suffer injuries. That’s another reason why the league doesn’t miss out on the 14.5 players per team roster requirement.

“After the trade deadline and buyout season, it’s an absolute dogfight for roster spots,” an agent told Spotrac. “You’ve got teams that are tanking and willing to tryout guys, but you’ve also got playoff teams looking for guys too. The challenge is, more and more teams would rather just promote a two-way guy than sign a player who isn’t in the league.”

Another agent said, “It used to be that after the trade deadline, I could count on getting my guys 10 Day contracts without any kind of worry. That’s become less, because teams will just use their two-way players for more games. What has changed is you’ll get two-way contract offers sometimes, but that gets tricky because a lot of teams want someone who will sign a two-year two-way deal. Our policy is to avoid locking in for that second year unless it’s the perfect spot or the only offer our guy has.”


Let’s talk about 10 Day contracts. The NBA has had the leaguewide roster minimum for several years now. One way teams work around that is by bringing players in on 10 Day contracts. Initially designed to give teams a replacement player when a player was placed on the Injured List (the NBA did away with the Injured List many years ago, in favor of a by-game Inactive List), 10 Day contracts have also been used differently over the years.

Since the 2017-18 season, when two-way contracts became a thing, the NBA has seen the following amount of 10 Day contracts signed, per Spotrac tracking data:

  • 2017-18 – 62
  • 2018-19 – 63
  • 2019-20 – 32
  • 2020-21 – 65
  • 2021-22 – 225
  • 2022-23 – 40
  • 2023-24 – 64

There’s some context needed here. The 2019-20 season was cut short before 10 Day contract season (post-trade deadline and buyout period) could fully pick up. The 2020-21 season was shortened and with tightened COVID protocols, teams didn’t bring in extra players very often. In 2021-22, the rules were adjusted to allow for 10 Day hardship signings when players were out due to positive COVID tests. This caused a massive spike in 10 Day contracts and record number of players in the NBA for a single season.

If we take those three seasons out of the mix, as they aren’t really representative of normal NBA operating conditions, we can see teams generally sign about 60 total 10 Day deals.

However, a bit more context is needed here. In 2022-23, with things back to normal, the number of 10 Day deals had started to dip. Last season, the number moved back up, but that’s inflated by a couple of different teams who signed several 10 Day contracts due to injury hardship allowances. For example, the Memphis Grizzlies had 33 different players appear in at least three games for the team last season. Several of those players were on 10 Day deals.

“Basically, I know I’m waiting for someone to get hurt,” a player who has shuttled between the NBA and the G League in recent seasons told Spotrac. “And that sucks! A lot of these guys are my friends. But for me to get a spot, I’m almost rooting for someone to get injured. I don’t have two-way eligibility, so I’m always going to be fighting for a spot. I’ll take one how I can get it. It is what it is.”

A Western Conference coach added, “It used to be that vets wouldn’t take a 10 Day deal. It was a full contract or nothing. That changed a few years ago. Now, vets will take a 10 Day to show you that they can still play. The goal is to catch on before playoff rosters finalize.”

One West GM told Spotrac, “We save our last spot for flexibility. If we have a need and our two-way games are getting tight, we’ll bring in a guy on a 10 Day. But pre-trade deadline, we don’t want a guy taking up a roster spot we might need in an unbalanced trade. It’s easier to leave it open and to save some money, than it is to tell a guy you are cutting him.”

To put it simply, NBA teams as a collective of 30 have a contractual responsibility to all play a part in filling out their rosters. Eventually, they get there. The league hasn’t seen the number dip under that 14.5 players per team requirement.

What’s changed is that the 15th spot sits open longer than ever before.


“I’d argue that two-way contracts have been a win for players and teams,” an Eastern Conference GM told Spotrac. “Instead of cutting a guy at the end of the preseason, they end up staying a part of the organization. They keep practicing with you, maybe even see some game time. We’ve had our coaches beg us to convert a two-way guy, simply because they get to see him work. That wouldn’t happen if they weren’t still with us.”

An agent countered that with, “Sure, some teams are great with their two-way guys. They make them feel like they are part of the team. They are invested. Other teams couldn’t give a shit about a guy on a two-way deal, especially the coaching staff. And what it’s really killed is the guys who got a partial guarantee to go to camp, knowing they might land with the G League team after. Those are completely dead now.”

What that agent is talking about is a practice that has all but disappeared from use. Teams used to regularly sign players to standard contracts that were partially guaranteed. The idea was to give the player some money, even though that player likely to be waived at the end of the preseason. The player would then likely play for that team’s G League affiliate, while waiting for an in-season callup on a 10 Day deal or sometimes even a straight standard signing.

Now, teams largely use Exhibit 9 (comes with some injury protection) or Exhibit 10 (comes with a bonus if the player later plays for the team’s G League affiliate for a period of 60 days) contracts to fill out their camp rosters. Exhibit 9 “Summer Contracts” have existed for years. Teams like to use them, because they don’t count against the salary cap or luxury tax, unless the player makes the regular season roster. Exhibit 10 deals are a newer thing, and are convertible for those players with two-way eligibility, or come with a bonus for playing in the G League.

With Exhibit 9 and 10 contracts so widely used, teams have stopped giving partial guarantees to players simply to come to training camp.

“It’s bullshit. And the teams know it. I’m not even going to say it’s a bad strategy. Why spend money if you don’t have to? And with all the ridiculous apron rules, no one wants to take on even a dollar on the books if they can avoid it,” one agent said. “But this is why guys aren’t hanging around anymore. They’re going overseas in droves now. Why play the game in the NBA, get cut and then all the money is gone in Europe and Asia?”

Another agent feels differently, “The goal is to play in the NBA, right? I want our guys as close to NBA teams as possible. How many guys are signed from overseas during the NBA season? One or two? You go overseas, and you’re gone for the year. That’s not bad for some players, because there is pretty good money in Europe, Australia, China and Japan now. And they become heroes in China and Japan. But for our guys who want to be in the NBA, we advise them to stay close to the NBA.”

A veteran player who remains a free agent added, “You have to be careful. I turned down some good offers in China and Japan, because I know I’m an NBA player. But I don’t have a contract and bills are due. You know what I mean? I wonder every day if I made a mistake. And then I see this team and that team has an open roster spot and I’m like ‘Saving a few bucks is better than having me on your team?’ It’s fucking tough, man.”

A Western Conference coach said it’s helpful to have guys playing for the G League affiliate when it comes time to fill out open spots.

“I barely have time to watch other NBA games, forget games outside of the NBA. The handful of times I see a player not in the NBA is with our G League team. And if they are in our program, at least they know our system and what we want to do. If our front office says it’s time to fill our last spot, I’d rather go with someone we can bring in with relative ease.”


The reality is that there are currently 540 NBA roster spots available each season. That’s 450 standard spots and 90 two-way spots. NBA expansion is an inevitable and impending reality. That’ll add at least 36 more spots to the league (15 standard spots and three two-way spots for each of the expected two expansion teams).

That’s 576 roster spots. Are there 576 NBA-caliber players in the world?

“Absolutely. We’re probably closer to 1000 guys who could play in the league than we are 500,” one Eastern Conference GM said.

Another Eastern Conference GM disagreed.

“It’s close. But we think of two-way players and G League players as being ‘NBA adjacent’. Are they ready for the NBA? No. Are they worth working with to get there? Definitely. So, in that sense, there are definitely more than enough NBA adjacent players to fill out our current rosters and a couple more teams when we expand.”

Players and agents are ready for expansion, almost as much as fans in cities starving for their own teams.

“Expand tomorrow, if it were up to me! I’ve got guys ready to go. There aren’t 1000 NBA guys out there, but there are probably 700. And more and more are coming every year in the draft too,” an agent said. “I’m more excited about getting more guys drafted in real spots, instead of the bullshit that happens now.”

What this agent is referring to is how the NBA Draft has changed since the advent of two-way contracts. For years, first-round picks were all but guaranteed to land on an NBA roster. Every four or five years, a player would get drafted in the first round and stashed overseas.

In the second round, draft-and-stash picks were far more common. Regularly, there would be 10 or more draft-and-stash guys each year. Now, teams have started to shy away from those opportunities. Somewhere in the range of the 40th to 45th selection in the draft, teams have begun drafting players with the express purpose of signing them to a two-way contract.

“Every agent has at least a dozen stories of a guy that only got drafted because he’d sign a two-way deal or a guy who didn’t get drafted because he wouldn’t,” an agent told Spotrac.

At the 2024 NBA Draft, 28 players were selected in the second round. (The Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns both forfeited second-round picks due to tampering violations.) Here’s the breakdown of what types of contracts those 28 players signed:

  • 14 players signed standard contracts
  • 11 players signed two-way contracts
  • 2 players are draft-and-stashed in Europe
  • 1 player is unsigned after an offseason injury

The highest a player was selected and signed to a two-way contract was 38th. The lowest-drafted player to sign a standard contract was drafted 55th.

“The second round of the draft has turned into the first round of the G League Draft. Half of the guys drafted end up on a two-way deal. The other half sign four-year NBA deals, but they are headed to the G League too. That’s taken a lot of guaranteed money out of guy’s pockets, because teams don’t even give them a partial camp deal,” an agent said.

The four-year NBA deals referred to by this agent are via the Second Round Pick Exception. Another new part of the 2023 CBA was the creation of an exception to sign second-round picks to a three- or four-year contract without having to use cap space or to dip into the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception. Some agents love the guaranteed money, while others think locking in players for four years has removed earning potential for those players who outplay a contract that pays just north of the league minimum.

Team executives pushed back on that idea.

“Agents will say guys aren’t getting paid, but (Second Round Pick) Exception and two-way players aren’t playing for free. Most of them will get a bigger deal than they’d get overseas. What most agents want to do is double-dip. Get a guarantee, then sign a two-way after. Or they want a two-year deal, but with a guarantee that if their guy doesn’t pop that we’ll bring them back on another deal,” a Western Conference GM said. “If we draft you, we want you. But our opinion is that the player needs time in the G League. If we all do our jobs well, that time on a two-way deal might be for a year or less. And we’re always open to extending the Exception guys too, if they earn it.”

That last part is a key component that is worth examining. As seen with Scotty Pippen Jr.’s recent contract with the Memphis Grizzlies, toiling on a two-way deal can pay off. Pippen played for two seasons on two-way deals. He proved himself and signed a four-year deal with Memphis that will see him earn over $4 million in guaranteed salary.

Pippen is just the latest two-way success story for Memphis only. The Grizzlies have also seen Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson II promoted from two-way status with long-term standard deals in the past year.

Memphis and the Miami Heat are two examples of teams who have had great success developing players while on two-way contracts and through the G League. But whether on a two-way deal or on standard deal via the Second Round Pick Exception, it’s up to the player to put in the work.

One player who was promoted from a two-way deal in recent seasons said, “You can tell the guys who go to the G League with a bad attitude and the guys who go there to work. It’s pro basketball a step below the NBA. Go there, show out, and get your NBA deal. I know too many guys who think they are too good to have to prove it. If that was true, you’d be on an NBA team not playing overseas.”


“Look, all of what others said is true. I’m not going to say players and teams haven’t both benefitted from two-way contracts. There are a lot of examples of that,” an agent said. “But you know what I have a lot more examples of? Guys not getting deals because teams don’t want to fill that 15th spot. I’ve had teams openly tell me ‘We have 50 games for each of our two-way guys.’ as the reason they won’t fill out their roster. Overall, that’s a loss for everyone.”

So…what’s the fix? That’s a complicated, and admittedly selfish answer for all parties involved.

“Personally, I don’t have an issue with it. I did my time on a two-way and I got chances because our team left roster spots open. I wouldn’t have gotten minutes if another guy was already on the team,” the promoted player told Spotrac.

A Western Conference front office executive gets that line of thinking.

“Players have to work no matter what the situation is. It’s hard to make our league. Really, really hard. Sometimes having one less guy to compete against can work for a player.”

Most agents disagree. One said, “Owners are cheap. They’ll talk flexibility and all that shit, but it’s really that they don’t want to spend extra money. And that’s been a loss for players, because they miss out. Not just on the immediate money, but years of service and all the other stuff that adds up over time.”

NBA teams have transitioned how they build rosters over the years. Rosters have grown in size since the league was formed. There was a time when the league’s original coaches believed you needed 10 players to run a practice and that was enough.

Now, there are up 540 players in the NBA at a given time. That may seem like a big number, but it’s still the smallest of all of the major sports leagues by a pretty wide margin. With limited roster spots and increasingly complex and burdensome luxury tax and apron restrictions, NBA teams are always going to be cautious and methodical about filling out their rosters.

One Eastern Conference GM put it in the simplest terms of all.

“If filling the 15th spot matters this much, we’d fill it. If you are that worried about your 15th man, I’d say you have a whole lot more you should be worried about.”

Keith SmithOctober 15, 2024

NBA teams are fully in preseason mode, with the regular season about a week away.

NBA preseason doesn’t come with the excitement of NFL camp or MLB preseason. Nor does it come with the competition for roster spots. Smaller rosters and more guaranteed money mean that NBA squads are generally set when camp opens.

However, all across the league battles for rotation spots are playing out out. Incumbents are trying to hold off newcomers. Young players are trying to break through. Vets are trying to hang on for one more season. In some cases, there are roster spots up for grabs too.

We’re going to going team by team and look some of the most interesting battles to monitor as we close in on the regular season. We previously covered the Southwest DivisionNorthwest Division and Pacific Division out west. Then we headed east to cover the Southeast Division. Now, we take a look at the Central Division teams!

Chicago Bulls

Ballhandlers

Chicago has a lot of on-ball playmakers. Some of them are fine as off-ball players, but these guys are best with the ball in their hands. That’s the spot where Billy Donovan has the most decisions to make.

Zach LaVine looks healthy and he’s going to be the Bulls primary scorer and playmaker. A return to full health and productivity is good for LaVine, Chicago and LaVine’s trade value.

Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu are both back after having productive seasons. Both players are coming off career-best years. They are both also young enough to factor into whatever the Bulls are going to be next.

In the offseason, Chicago added Josh Giddey. While Giddey has taken baby steps as an off-ball player, his best work is done with the ball in his hands. He’s going to start as…well…something. Outside of Nikola Vucevic, who will be the Bulls center, Donovan seems to be leaning into a relatively positionless starting group. That’s hardly a bad thing, and it’s for the best given the team’s current roster makeup. Giddey is going to be a big part of that, both this season and moving forward.

If those four aren’t enough, Lonzo Ball is coming back from injury. After two-and-a-half years on the sideline, Ball is ready to play again. At this point, we have no idea what to expect from the veteran point guard, but the Bulls are going to give Ball some minutes to figure it out. In part, that’s to reward him for battling for nearly three years to get back on the court. It’s also to see if Ball can be a productive rotation player, either for Chicago or elsewhere as an expiring, tradable contract.

We’re now at five guys who are going to see minutes. Behind them, Jevon Carter is a quality NBA guy who seemingly has no path to minutes. The Bulls look like they may keep training camp invite Talen Horton-Tucker into the regular season. Carter can play off-ball, but Horton-Tucker is another guy who is best with the ball his hands.

Depth is great, as the injury-ravaged Bulls backcourt has demonstrated in the past. But these are a lot of guys who need to play and to have the ball. And that’s before we get to any touches used by Vucevic or Patrick Williams. That’s a lot for Donovan to work out in what looks like a transitional year for Chicago.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Small Forward

The best bet is that the Cavaliers will open with Max Strus as their starting small forward. Strus was underwhelming as a shooter last season, but should be better this year with better health from the Cavs playmakers.

Behind Strus, new coach Kenny Atkinson can go with Isaac Okoro, who is the team’s best wing defender or Caris LeVert, who is a nice on-ball playmaker and scorer. Okoro makes the most sense, as the Cavs could use his defense against bigger ballhandlers. Okoro is also a much-improved shooter, which could help open up the floor if opponents respect his jumper more this season.

LeVert is an offensive weapon. He’ll probably see more time as a backup guard/ballhandler behind both Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland than he will as a small forward. But if Cleveland needs some offensive juice, don’t be surprised if LeVert shows up in three-guard lineups with the Cavs two All-Stars.

Dean Wade is another option, especially against bigger forward as he’s a three/four combo forward. Solid defense and an improved jumper have Wade in the mix to play big minutes at both forward spots.

Lastly, keep an eye on rookie wing Jaylon Tyson. After an outstanding Summer League run, Tyson has looked just as good in the preseason. He’s got some work to do before he’ll crack the rotation, but there’s a good chance that will happen by midseason. Tyson is simply going to be too good to keep off the floor.

Detroit Pistons

Wing Rotation

Trajan Langdon’s offseason makeover of the Pistons has infused the roster with proven talent. No more does that stand out more than with the wing group.

Veteran shooters Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr. were brought in this summer. Simone Fontecchio was re-signed. Ron Holland II was added in the draft. And Ausar Thompson is returning after a promising rookie season. In addition, Tobias Harris has played plenty at small forward, and talented youngster Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey could play some on the wing in multiple ballhandler lineups.

This is all good stuff for Detroit. This roster needed both talent and to create competition for minutes. Harris, Beasley and Hardaway will help – as Fontecchio did after his midseason acquisition last year – by giving Cunningham and Ivey some reliable shooters. Too many possessions featured the two young playmakers getting frustrated by making the right read, seeing another jumper clang off the rim and reverting to taking contested mid-range jumpers themselves. Now, they have players they can trust to make shots. That should lift their games, and the Pistons as a whole.

But new head coach JB Bickerstaff has to balance his rotation. Detroit is still rebuilding, so they can’t sacrifice developmental minutes for the kids by playing the veterans too much. For example, Thompson is too special as a defender and playmaker to sit just to have better shooting on the floor. Finding that balance is key for the Pistons, both for this season and the years to come.

Indiana Pacers

Are There Enough Minutes To Go Around?

In a pretty short period of time, the Pacers have built one of the deeper rosters in the NBA. That’s something to be praised, but it does come with a challenge for Rick Carlisle. There are good veterans, as well as promising youngsters, who aren’t going to have regular roles.

At each position, Indiana has at least two, if not three or more, players who can play. That’s great depth for those nights when guys are out. When everyone is healthy, it’s hard to see how there are enough minutes for everyone.

At center, Indiana will start Myles Turner and probably back him up with Isaiah Jackson. That doesn’t leave much time for James Wiseman as a project. At the four, Pascal Siakam is backed up by Obi Toppin. Both players got paid this summer as key rotation guys. Where does that leave Jarace Walker?

Sliding Walker over to play small forward is complicated by the presence of Aaron Nesmith and Ben Sheppard. Pushing one of them down a spot means that Andrew Nembhard or Bennedict Mathurin will lose minutes. Putting Nembhard behind Tyrese Haliburton takes backup point guard minutes away from T.J. McConnell.

The Pacers are somewhere between a really good team and a real contender. That doesn’t leave a lot of room for developmental minutes. That means guys like Walker, Wiseman and rookie second-rounder Johnny Furphy may rarely see the floor. Such is life on a deep team that is trying to push themselves to the next level.

Milwaukee Bucks

Who Is The Fourth Wing?

Milwaukee did really well to add talent this offseason, despite having limited resources to work with. As a second apron team, the Bucks were mostly limited to veteran minimum deals, and still came away with Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright. That’s terrific value for all three players.

Prince gives the Bucks another forward to put in the mix behind Giannis Antetokounmpo. Bobby Portis has mostly become a third big/backup center. Having Prince gives Doc Rivers another guy he can work in when Antetokounmpo is off the floor.

Wright solves the backup point guard issue that plagued Milwaukee at times when Damian Lillard was out. Trent seems likely to start at shooting guard, which is good, given the Bucks lack of other quality options for that spot.

It’s that last one where things get tricky for Rivers. Trent is a good player. Khris Middleton will obviously play on the perimeter when he’s healthy. The challenge is that Middleton is starting the season limited after offseason surgeries on both ankles.

Behind Middleton and Trent, the Bucks can go with Pat Connaughton, who has been a solid backup wing for years. For the other wing spot? That’s a box full of answered questions.

Prince will likely see some minutes at small forward. A.J. Green is a knockdown shooter. If he can defend better, he’s likely got the inside track on a rotation role.

Andre Jackson Jr. has the opposite problem. He can defend, but he either can’t or won’t shoot. (Aside: Jackson needs to be more willing to let it fly. His jumper doesn’t look bad enough that he should be such a reluctant shooter.) MarJon Beauchamp looks like he needs a fresh start elsewhere, while Chris Livingston and A.J. Johnson are unproven prospects.

Given Middleton’s track record of missing games, Rivers is going to have to find someone beyond Trent and Connaughton that he trusts. Putting faith in young players has been an issue for Rivers over the years, but he may have no other choice, barring a move to bring in more veteran help.

 

Keith SmithOctober 14, 2024

NBA teams are fully in preseason mode, with the regular season about a week away.

NBA preseason doesn’t come with the excitement of NFL camp or MLB preseason. Nor does it come with the competition for roster spots. Smaller rosters and more guaranteed money mean that NBA squads are generally set when camp opens.

However, all across the league battles for rotation spots are playing out out. Incumbents are trying to hold off newcomers. Young players are trying to break through. Vets are trying to hang on for one more season. In some cases, there are roster spots up for grabs too.

We’re going to going team by team and look some of the most interesting battles to monitor as we close in on the regular season. We previously covered the Southwest DivisionNorthwest Division and Pacific Division. Now, we head east for the Southeast Division teams!

Atlanta Hawks

Wing Rotation

The Hawks aren’t really rebuilding, but resetting. And Atlanta is attempting to do so on the fly. Nowhere on the roster is more of a work in progress than the wing rotation.

It looks like De’Andre Hunter and Jalen Johnson will start at the two forward spots as interchangeable players. The shooting guard spot is a three-way competition between veteran Bogdan Bogdanovic, first overall pick Zaccharie Risacher and Dyson Daniels.

If those five guys aren’t enough, Vit Krejci is firmly in the mix for regular minutes, as is shooting specialist Garrison Mathews. And Larry Nance Jr. will figure into the four/five rotation, which may push down other players to more minutes at the three.

None of this is bad. The Hawks are in a good spot to have players earn their minutes. Johnson is the best of this bunch, as he’s already shown he’s a long-term part of Atlanta’s future. Bogdanovic is the next most proven. The question for him is if he should be coming off the bench or starting. As a reserve, Bogdanovic is a potential Sixth Man of the Year. It also should help Quin Snyder manage minutes for the veteran a bit more.

Risacher has looked better in the preseason than he did in Summer League, which is exciting. He’s got the potential for rapid improvement and he’s going to play plenty. Daniels gives the Hawks a nice big guard option alongside Trae Young, but his lack of a consistent jumper is still holding him back somewhat.

Snyder is going to have make some tough decisions as long as everyone is healthy. Bet on Johnson, Bogdanovic, Risacher, Hunter and Daniels all playing plenty. The others may have to wait until an injury, or a trade, opens up more minutes.

Charlotte Hornets

Wing/Guard Rotation

All of a sudden, the Hornets have an abundance of quality at the wing/guard positions. The emergence of young players, players returning to good health and acquisitions over the last year has given new head coach Charles Lee some rotation decisions to make.

LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller are locks to start. They are Charlotte’s building blocks and both look ready to have big seasons. Around them, there are more questions, but instead of a bunch of not-great options, the Hornets have talented players to choose from.

Josh Green came over in a multi-team trade as a salary-dump this summer. Green can play though. If he can hit open shots and defend, Green could be in the mix to start in between Ball and Miller as a 3&D wing.

Off the bench, Cody Martin is hoping for a healthier season than last year. Unfortunately, a wrist and finger injury have him a bit behind as the regular season approaches. If he can get right, Martin will be a rotation player as a wing option.

Of true guards, Vasilije Micic has the inside track to be the backup point guard. The veteran is a stabilizing player for bench units, and a good option should Ball miss more time. Tre Mann got his career on track after last season’s trade to the Hornets. He’s an undersized scoring guard, but those players have long histories as productive bench players.

Rookie first-round Tidjane Salaun looks more ready to contribute right away than expected. He’s going to force his way into some regular wing minutes. Veteran guard Seth Curry is back for some bench shooting, while second-year guard Nick Smith Jr. faces an uphill battle for a rotation spot.

As a rookie head coach, Lee has some talented players to choose from in this group. This is still a rebuilding season for the Hornets, but they’re closer to the “push forward” side of the rebuild, as opposed to the “getting started” portion. This group is a big part of why Charlotte could potential compete for a spot in the Play-In Tournament this season.

Miami Heat

Backup Point Guard

The Heat roster is fairly well settled. Well, so long as everyone is healthy. Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier III and Nikola Jovic seem likely to start. Duncan Robinson, Jaime Jaquez Jr, Haywood Highsmith, Kevin Love and rookie Kel’el Ware will see time off the bench.

That leaves the only uncertain spot as backup point guard. Josh Richardson will probably fill that role when he’s fully healthy. Richardson has been a bit hit or miss as the primary floor leader, but the Heat have enough other playmakers that it should be fine.

Veteran Alec Burks will probably figure into the mix, as well. Burks isn’t a traditional point guard, but he’s a solid enough ball-mover that he can fill the role. Again, like with Richardson, Miami should have other playmakers out there to ease that burden.

If the veterans aren’t working out, keep an eye on rookie Pelle Larsson. He’s got a knack for passing and he’s a pretty solid spot-up shooter too. Don’t be surprised if he breaks through late in the year.

Orlando Magic

Two-Way Spots

For a young team, the Magic have a lot of roster continuity. The only major rotation change is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope took the place of Markelle Fultz. That leaves Jamahl Mosley with a bit of a crowded guard group, but that will work itself out throughout the season.

With terrific frontcourt depth, and solid wing depth, there isn’t a whole lot up in the air for Orlando’s rotation right now. Where the intrigue comes in for the Magic is with their two-way spots.

Trevelin Queen has one spot locked in. The other two have been subject to a camp-long competition. Mac McClung could snag one, as he’s been wildly productive on the G League level. Jalen Slawson could grab the third spot, as he’s a wing with a little bit of size. Ethan Thompson and Robert Baker II are also in the mix, as Thompson is a big guard and Baker is a combo forward.

Despite not having competition for spots on the standard roster, Orlando has had a competitive camp with this two-way battle. That’s solid work by the Magic front office to manufacture some spirited play down the roster.

Washington Wizards

Play the Kids or Play the Vets?

The Wizards are still in “deconstruction phase” per general manager Will Dawkins. That means there’s still a lot of roster-tinkering to come in Washington.

Despite that, the Wizards aren’t going full youth movement yet. Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole are still around. And in the last year, the team added Malcolm Brogdon, Jonas Valanciunas and Marvin Bagley III. That’s a fairly solid veteran group to eat up a lot of regular season minutes.

Behind that group, there are a bunch of kids who are going to push for minutes. Bilal Coulibaly is hitting Year 2 looking like a starter. Corey Kispert is starting Year 4 as a regular rotation player. The 2024 NBA Draft brought Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George into the mix.

Brian Keefe is now the full-time head coach, after having the interim tag removed this summer. He’s not going to be challenged with winning games, at least not yet. But Keefe is going to have to find the balance of keeping the team competitive by playing the veterans, while developing the kids who are the Wizards future. At some point, the latter will become priority. The question is: How quickly will that happen?

 

Keith SmithOctober 09, 2024

NBA teams are fully in preseason mode, with the regular season less than two weeks away.

NBA preseason doesn’t come with the excitement of NFL camp or MLB preseason. Nor does it come with the competition for roster spots. Smaller rosters and more guaranteed money mean that NBA squads are generally set when camp opens.

However, all across the league battles for rotation spots are playing out out. Incumbents are trying to hold off newcomers. Young players are trying to break through. Vets are trying to hang on for one more season. In some cases, there are roster spots up for grabs too.

We’re going to going team by team and look some of the most interesting battles to monitor as we close in on the regular season. We previously covered the Southwest Division and Northwest Division. Next up are the Pacific Division teams!

Golden State Warriors

Frontcourt Rotation

Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga and Andrew Wiggins seem pretty set to start in the Golden State frontcourt. Behind them, things are a bit more unsettled. Also, should that trio be the starting group?

Trayce Jackson-Davis’ strong rookie season should have him in line for regular minutes at the five. Kevon Looney is still around as a physical, veteran presence, but his play slipped greatly last season. Kyle Anderson was signed as a do-it-all bench forward. He’ll play a big role with his ballhandling and passing in the Warriors motion system.

That’s about it for frontcourt options for Steve Kerr. Quentin Post is an interesting player on a two-way contract. He’s got the most size on the roster. But Post probably isn’t contributing a whole lot this season.

As for who should start, in order to put their best five on the floor, the Warriors probably need to run with a Green, Kuminga, Wiggins frontcourt. Green can certainly play the five, but asking him to do it all the time is a lot. Kuminga himself said his best position is small forward. Wiggins has been up and down production-wise and in and out availability-wise over the last couple of seasons. At least one of the backups is going to be needed for big minutes this season. Kerr getting this spot right may be the difference between a playoff spot and another trip to the Play-In Tournament.

LA Clippers

Forward Rotation

The Clippers couldn’t replace Paul George straight up, so they took the Moneyball approach of trying to replace George in the aggregate. Nic Batum came back, while Derrick Jones Jr. were signed for the frontcourt. Kris Dunn and Kevin Porter were brought in for the backcourt.

George’s role was pretty dynamic for LA. He’d play anywhere from the two to the four, depending on lineup constructions and who else was available that night. With a bunch of guard options, it’s the forward minutes where the Clippers need to replace George’s production most.

Jones or Batum will start next to Kawhi Leonard (and possibly both will start if Leonard is out to open the season). The other one will anchor the bench forward group. Behind them, Terance Mann and Amir Coffey can both play the three. Depth at the four remains an issue, so Ty Lue will continue to mix and match with small-ball options around Jones and Batum.

Keep an eye on Kobe Brown. The second-year forward looks better prepared for the NBA season this year. If Brown could break through, he’d give Lue another option, and a player with a bit more size than the team’s other forward options.

Los Angeles Lakers

Center Rotation

The Lakers have Anthony Davis as their starting center. That’s pretty great!

Behind Davis, Jaxson Hayes was pretty solid last season. He didn’t play a lot, but Hayes finished well around the rim, got on the glass and blocked shots at a decent clip. Hayes is a solid enough backup five.

Beyond those two, the Lakers have…a lot of questions.

Los Angeles was likely looking for bounce-back seasons from Jarred Vanderbilt and Christian Wood for additional big man depth. However, both Vanderbilt and Wood are starting out the season recovering from surgeries. It’s unknown when either will be able to contribute.

That leaves the Lakers looking at two-way centers Colin Castleton and, hopefully, Christian Koloko for minutes behind Davis and Hayes. Castleton did a nice job in the G League last season. He may be ready for an NBA shot, especially on the offensive end of the floor. Koloko had a promising rookie year with the Toronto Raptors, but he missed all of last season while dealing with blood clots. If fully cleared, Koloko could provide some rebounding and rim protection.

Without a trade, Los Angeles is going to have to piece together some minutes if Davis and Hayes can’t cover the full 48 at center. The Lakers don’t have great small-ball options, but may need to lean on LeBron James and Rui Hachimura in small lineups for at least a handful of minutes per night. And, of course, there’s always the chance this gets solved via a trade at some point this season.

Phoenix Suns

Perimeter Rotation

Phoenix has a lot of talent, just like last season. The good news is that the roster seems a bit more balanced this year, as they brought in Tyus Jones and Monte Morris to handle the point guard minutes. However, with real floor generals in place, the Suns have to slide the guys who previously masqueraded as point guards to other positions.

Devin Booker and Bradley Beal will start at two perimeter spots. That pushes Grayson Allen to the bench, where he’ll probably be a Sixth Man of the Year contender. Josh Okogie and Damion Lee are around for depth behind that main group at the guard spots.

For the bigger wings, Kevin Durant will play a lot as the four. Royce O’Neale will be first up for backup forward minutes. Rookie Ryan Dunn has looked increasingly ready for rotation minutes. If Dunn can make shots, his defense could be his ticket to playing time.

None of this is really an issue, except for Mike Budenholzer. He may not have enough rotation minutes to go around every night for all his veteran options. But that’s something that should work itself out eventually. The fun part is going to be watching how that happens.

Sacramento Kings

Bench Forwards

The Kings added DeMar DeRozan in place of Harrison Barnes this offseason. DeRozan will start alongside holdover Keegan Murray. That’s a nice duo at the forward spot.

Behind them, things are a lot more in flux. It seems like Kevin Huerter will see more of his minutes as a backup forward, as Malik Monk and Keon Ellis have the off-guard minutes locked up Sacramento. That should cover the small forward spot fairly well.

Alongside Huerter, the Kings are hoping that Jalen McDaniels can give them some minutes as a combo forward. After a promising start to his career, McDaniels struggled with the Toronto Raptors last season. If he can make shots, play defense and provide a little rebounding, McDaniels will get some minutes, especially as the backup four.

Trey Lyles will fill some backup power forward minutes, as well as seeing some time as Domantas Sabonis’ backup at the five. Lyles’ ability to space the floor is probably a bigger advantage at the five. That makes getting someone like McDaniels to fill minutes at the four a key coming into the season. Lyles is also recovering from an injury to open the year. That may make the power forward spot something that Mike Brown may have to piece together for a while.

For longer shots, keep an eye on two-way players Isaiah Crawford and Isaac Jones. Crawford doesn’t have great size, but he played up a lot at Louisiana Tech. He’s a rugged rebounder and athletic shot-blocker. Jones is a terrific athlete. He’s probably more of a five than a four right now, but Jones could eventually see the floor as a four. He’ll need to add some range and improve his perimeter defense, but there’s potential there.

Keith SmithOctober 02, 2024

The New York Knicks, Minnesota Timberwolves and Charlotte Hornets (and KK Partizan of Serbia and the EuroLeague) got creative to make a monster eve-of-the-preseason trade happen.

This trade involves multiple teams (always fun!), multiple players (always fun!), All-Star and All-NBA players (always fun!), multiple draft picks (always fun!) and some incredible CBA, salary cap, tax apron maneuvering (always VERY fun!). And if that wasn’t enough, FIBA and a EuroLeague team had to jump in to help make this deal happen.

Here are the particulars for this three team-trade:

New York Knicks acquire: Karl-Anthony Towns (from Minnesota), draft rights for James Nnaji (from Charlotte)

Minnesota Timberwolves acquire: Julius Randle (from New York), Donte DiVincenzo (from New York), Keita Bates-Diop (from New York), protected Detroit Pistons 2025 first-round pick (from New York)

Charlotte Hornets acquire: Charlie Brown Jr. (from New York via sign-and-trade), DaQuan Jeffries (from New York via sign-and-trade), Duane Washington Jr. (from New York via sign-and-trade), 2025 least favorable of Denver Nuggets and Philadelphia second-round pick (from Minnesota), 2026 Golden State Warriors second-round pick (from New York), 2031 New York Knicks second-pick (from New York), $7.2 million in cash

Let’s dive in!

(Note: We are analyzing this deal as it has been reported. If the trade is adjusted to include additional players or teams, we’ll adjust the analysis.)

New York Knicks

Incoming salary: $49.2 million in 2024-25

  • Karl-Anthony Towns (C/PF, four years, $220.4 million)

Outgoing salary: $49.9 million in 2024-25

  • Julius Randle (PF, two years, $59.9 million (pre-trade bonus), second year player option), Donte DiVincenzo (SG, three years, $35.9 million), Keita Bates-Diop (SF, one year, $2.6 million), Charlie Brown Jr. (SG, three years, $7.6 million (only Year 1 guaranteed)), DaQuan Jeffries (SG, three years, $8.3 million (only Year 1 guaranteed)), Duane Washington Jr. (SG, three years, $7.2 million (only Year 1 guaranteed))

Before we get too deep into this particular trade, we need to step back to earlier this offseason when the New York Knicks acquired Mikal Bridges. In that deal, the Knicks could have made a fairly simple transaction to acquire Bridges by taking on a bit more salary than they would have sent out. That trade would have been perfectly legal, but it would have hard-capped the Knicks at the first apron.

Because the New York front office was forward thinking, they got creative and added some additional salary to the Brooklyn Nets, partially in the form of a sign-and-trade (keep that in mind for later!). By sending the Nets more money than they took back, the Knicks avoided a first apron hard cap and instead hard-capped themselves at the second apron.

Without that bit of foresight and creativity, the Knicks would not have been able to make this trade for Karl-Anthony Towns. There’s been some reporting that New York was pushing for a Towns trade as far back as the last few years, and really ramped up efforts over the summer. By being smart about how they structured Bridges trade, and their subsequent signings and re-signings as well, the Knicks put themselves in position to make their second seismic move of the offseason.

We’re going to start breaking down the Knicks acquisition of Towns from the CBA/cap/apron perspective, because this deal involved an incredible level of creativity to get it across the finish line.

Because Towns makes about $49.2 million this season, which is his maximum salary, his trade bonus is disregarded. That was the target number for the Knicks to match or beat. By doing so, New York would avoid triggering a first apron hard cap, which would make this deal die somewhere between extremely hard and impossible.

Julius Randle, Donte DiVincenzo and Keita Bates-Diop (Bates-Diop is able to be aggregated in this deal, because the 60-day waiting period has passed since New York acquired him as part of the Bridges trade) got New York to just over $43 million in outgoing salary. That left the Knicks about $6 million shy of the target mark.

This is where New York went to work.

The Knicks got to that $6 million by agreeing to sign-and-trade deals with their three remaining free agents in Charlie Brown Jr., DaQuan Jeffries and Duane Washington Jr. (More on the Washington situation later!) But just adding that $6 million wasn’t going to get it done. Sure, it solves the Knicks hard-cap issues, but it wouldn’t work for the Wolves. Because Minnesota is already over the second apron, they aren’t allowed to take back more money than they send out in a deal.

Enter the Charlotte Hornets.

The Hornets are sitting well below the luxury tax line. Charlotte also has their full Room Exception remaining, which can now be used as a Trade Exception under the new CBA.

Those two things will allow the Hornets to pick up three extra second-round picks, plus enough cash to cover the salaries for Brown, Jeffries and Washington, with a little extra to boot. All at the expense of a few roster spots for a short amount of time.

Back to the Knicks creativity for a moment…

When New York made the Bridges trade, the issue of “stacking minimum contracts” came up. To keep it simple, the Knicks couldn’t just pile up a host of players on minimum contracts to get to the salary-matching they needed to avoid a first apron hard cap. That’s part of why Shake Milton was signed-and-traded to Brooklyn in that deal.

This trade had the same issue. In order to get around that, Brown, Jeffries and Washington will each be paid slightly more than the minimum in Year 1 of their new three-year contracts (a sign-and-trade deal has to be for a minimum of three years, but only Year 1 needs to be fully guaranteed). That minor bump in salary will avoid the “stacking minimum contracts” restriction.

As for the future cap sheet, the Knicks are as locked-in to their new core of Towns, Bridges and holdovers Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and Josh Hart as you can be in the current NBA. Brunson and Anunoby are under contract for the next five seasons. Towns and Hart are under contract for the next four seasons. Bridges has only two seasons left on his deal, but is expected to add up to four additional years to his deal in the summer of 2025.

Now, even with Brunson signing an under-market extension, the Knicks are still going to be dealing with the tax aprons for foreseeable future. That’s going to make filling out the rest of the roster a bit of a challenge. New York is going to have to hit on some minimum signings and whatever draft picks they have left. They may have to get creative in future trades. Re-signing a player or two as future tradable salary is also in play, as that’s a tactic that apron teams have begun employing this offseason.

But here’s the kicker: the Knicks front office has shown the ability to get creative to get deals done. If their scouting is solid, and they are able to develop the players they acquire, New York should be just fine to make it work.

Now, let’s go on the court!

The Knicks needed a center in the wake of the Mitchell Robinson injury. Sure, they talked about playing Julius Randle at the five, and they like Precious Achiuwa and Jericho Sims as depth options at center. But with Robinson sidelined to open the season, manning the middle was going to be an issue for the Knicks.

Karl-Anthony Towns solves that. Towns is drastically different from both Randle and Robinson. Those two often get it done via brute force. Towns is one of the best shooting fives the NBA has ever seen, and he’s not afraid to get down on the block to score either. He won’t do it off the bounce like Randle, nor will he play above the rim like Robinson, but Towns is a solid scorer at every level. The Knicks gave up some on-ball creation by trading Randle, and they gave up a really good perimeter shooter in Donte DiVincenzo. But New York’s offense should still be very, very good. The Towns-Jalen Brunson combo is going to be a handful in the two-man game. Towns’ shooting will open the floor for Brunson and Mikal Bridges to attack off the bounce, which should open up the drive-and-kick game to create shots for OG Anunoby, Josh Hart and others.

On the other end of the court, the Knicks defense is going to have some issues. Towns isn’t as bad as he’s sometimes painted as being, but he’s not exactly good either. New York is now small with Brunson and slow with Towns. Those are two attack-points that opponents will go after repeatedly, especially because Bridges, Anunoby and Hart are all good to excellent defenders.

But there’s a fix for that once Robinson is healthy. When that day comes, Towns can slide down a position and play alongside a rim-running, shot-blocking center again, which was a successful alignment in Minnesota. That will see Hart go to the bench, but that will help solve for New York’s lack of depth.

In the short-term, the Knicks have a lot of work to do and not a lot of time to do it in. Tom Thibodeau has to get his new-look lineup on the same page. New York has to figure out rotations, with three of last season’s key players out of the mix. The defense probably won’t be as strong, but the offense should eventually be better. The Knicks traded some top-tier offensive rebounding and forcefulness in the paint for better shooting and spacing. That’s a workable swap.

One other short-term consideration: filling out the roster. New York has to eventually get to 14 players on standard contracts. As it stands now, they’ll have just 12 players post-trade. The Knicks are also about $3.6 million under the second apron, at which they are hard-capped. That means for now, New York has enough room to sign one player to a veteran minimum deal, which runs about $2.1 million for this season. Landry Shamet is reportedly the leader to get this spot, as he’s already in camp with the Knicks on a non-guaranteed Exhibit 9 contract.

That leaves about $1.5 million to fill the 14th spot. That’s not enough for a one- or two-year veteran minimum deal, so the Knicks will have to sign a player to a rookie minimum deal. But that’s not as simple as finding any rookie and plugging them in. A rookie who the Knicks don’t own draft rights for would come with a tax variance of the two-year veteran minimum amount of just over $2.1 million. That won’t fit under the second apron hard cap.

So, look for the Knicks to take one of two actions. They’ll either convert or sign one of their rookies that are currently on two-way contracts (Ariel Hukporti or Kevin McCullar). Or the Knicks could sign any one of the 13 former draft picks that they retain rights for. By signing a player they currently have or had draft rights for, New York will avoid the tax variance issue and can slide the player into that open 14th roster spot.

That leaves the team with one open roster spot, but they won’t have enough room under the second apron hard cap to fill that spot until later in the season. Or if New York makes another trade where they send out more money than they take back, they could create the room to fill that 15th spot sooner.

(There’s a very unlikely situation where New York could sign three rookies who they have or had draft rights for, but that’d be leaving an already thin bench with some very inexperience players.) 

In the longer-term, the Knicks can still play big when Robinson gets healthy. They can go smaller and quicker with Towns surrounded by guards and wings. New York is about out of tradeable draft picks, but they do have a few players they can still offer up in future deal, with Robinson chief among them.

Also thinking long-term, don’t discount the James Nnaji acquisition as just a toss-in to make the deal work. Nnaji is an interesting prospect. The 6-foot-11, 20-year-old big man is extremely raw. Think Mitchell Robinson, but less refined. Starting to get the picture?

At 2023 Summer League, Nnaji blocked 12 shots in about 105 minutes. He also snagged 38 rebounds during that time, with 14 of them coming on the offense glass. Nnaji’s range is measured in inches and everything is being done purely on instinct, but there’s an athleticism and power there that is very Robinson-like.

Sadly, last season with Barcelona was largely a wash. Nnaji barely saw any meaningful run for one of the better teams in Europe. Following last season, he had back surgery, which is also at least somewhat worrisome. All in all, Nnaji isn’t a major addition, but he’s a nice flyer to have around to see if he develops into something.

Are the Knicks better following this trade? That’s unclear. They’re certainly different. It feels like they have a higher ceiling, as Towns is such a special offensive player. But the lack of depth and the injury histories of Towns and Anunoby, along with less on-ball creation, gives the Knicks a lower floor. If nothing else, this is the kind of daring and creative deal that has been in short supply around the NBA in recent years.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Incoming salary: $43.0 million in 2024-25 (pre-trade bonus for Julius Randle)

  • Julius Randle (PF, two years, $59.9 million (pre-trade bonus), second year player option), Donte DiVincenzo (SG, three years, $35.9 million), Keita Bates-Diop (SF, one year, $2.6 million)

Outgoing salary: $49.2 million in 2024-25

  • Karl-Anthony Towns (C/PF, four years, $220.4 million)

The Minnesota Timberwolves were set to be the NBA’s second-most expensive team this season, behind only the Phoenix Suns. That was tenable for this season and this season only. Something was eventually going to give and some money was going to have to come off the Wolves books as soon as next summer.

Instead of making one more run with largely the same group as the prior season, Minnesota chose to start resetting their books now. However, rather than simply dumping salary, the Timberwolves made a deal that should keep them near the top of the Western Conference, while shoring up a major hole on the roster.

Let’s start with the cap and tax implications. Saving a bit over $6 million this season is nice for Minnesota. But it’s the long-term savings where the Wolves really make out.

Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert both have player options for the 2025-26 season. At this point, it’s far too early to project what either player is going to do. There’s a world where both players could pick up those options and delay free agency until 2026. They could opt out and re-sign with the Timberwolves. They could both come to extension agreements in advance.

The one thing that is certain: Minnesota is in full control as soon as the summer of 2026. Instead of having about $145 million on the books for only six players that summer, the Wolves have just $98 million committed for five players.

Now, it’s fair to suggest that more moves will happen over the next two seasons that will eat into that cap flexibility. But there’s $57 million off the books for that season. There’s a world where even a re-signed Gobert and Randle are only slightly north of that figure combined.

Essentially, by taking Towns contract off the books (it was going to be him, Gobert or the unimaginable exit of Naz Reid happening by next summer), Minnesota saved a little money now and freed up some major long-term flexibility. If Randle and/or Gobert leave as soon as the summer of 2025, that flexibility comes even sooner.

This is Anthony Edwards’ team now, if it wasn’t already. He’s a superstar and he’s the guy the Wolves will orbit everything around moving forward. Now, they have the flexibility to do that in a way that they didn’t before this trade.

Let’s flip things to on the court now!

In a vacuum, Karl-Anthony Towns is a better offensive player than Julius Randle. Minnesota will miss Towns outside shooting and his all-around offensive excellence.

But basketball isn’t played in a vacuum. One undoing for the Timberwolves in last season’s playoffs was a lack of on-ball creation. Everything fell to Edwards. Now, Minnesota’s star has some help in that area.

For all of Randle’s shortcomings as a shooter and sometimes sloppiness as a playmaker, he’s good with the ball. Randle can bulldoze his way to the rim with regularity. He’s generally a good passer. And sometimes Randle’s jumper is falling. (Randle has had this odd every-other-year thing where he goes back and forth from a passable three-point shooter to an awful one.)

That’s partially where Donte DiVincenzo comes in. The Wolves wing/guard rotation behind Anthony Edwards was a little shaky. Joe Ingles is more of a smaller four now than he is a wing. Terrence Shannon Jr. is a rookie and Nickeil Alexander-Walker is more of a combo guard.

DiVincenzo is primarily a shooting guard, but he can play small forward and he can also swing over to point guard too. No matter the position, he’s an elite off-ball player. The last two seasons DiVincenzo has shot 40% on 7.1 three-point attempts per game. He’s also a better-than-you-think rebounder and passer too.

Randle is a drastically different player from Towns, but he’s not necessarily a step backwards. DiVincenzo is a huge upgrade for a bench that felt one player short. Factor in that Naz Reid will now have more runway as a stretch big, and it doesn’t feel like Minnesota downgraded much at all.

Where this trade stings is emotionally. The Timberwolves invested nine years in Karl-Anthony Towns, and Towns invested nine years in the team and the state of Minnesota. This past season was the highest heights the franchise has hit, possibly ever. This upcoming season looked like a good bet to be another successful one.

It’s hard to pivot from that, especially with a loyal player who meant so much to the franchise. But the best front offices have to be daring and unconventional. The easy thing would have been to run it back, see what this season brought, and then go about cutting costs next summer.

By getting in front of this situation, and coming away with two players who can play and an additional first-round pick (let’s not forget Minnesota is still a bit pick poor after the Gobert trade), is good work. It’s not the way most front offices would do things, but you don’t get anywhere by being the same as everyone else, just more expensive.

Charlotte Hornets

Incoming salary: $6.8 million in 2024-25

  • Charlie Brown Jr. (SG, three years, $7.6 million (only Year 1 guaranteed)), DaQuan Jeffries (SG, three years, $8.3 million (only Year 1 guaranteed)), Duane Washington Jr. (SG, three years, $7.2 million (only Year 1 guaranteed))

Outgoing salary: $0.0 million in 2024-25

  • None

The Charlotte Hornets are acting as the facilitator here. This deal doesn’t get done without Charlotte’s involvement. And, as a fun little bonus, the Hornets got to make a little history too.

Under the new CBA, teams can use the unused portion of their Room Exception (or the Taxpayer or Non-Taxpayer MLE) as a Trade Exception. The Hornets are the first team to take advantage of that, by using most of their Room Exception as the mechanism to acquire Charlie Brown Jr., DaQuan Jeffries and Duane Washington Jr.

With all due respect to Brown, Jeffries and Washington, none of them are likely to be in Charlotte this season. The Hornets already have a full roster in terms of standard contracts. They’re also acquiring $7.2 million in this deal, which will cover what they are eating in salaries for the Brown, Jeffries and Washington trio for this season, plus a bit more.

As for long-term cap and tax impacts, there are none. While a sign-and-trade deal has to be for a minimum of three seasons, only Year 1 has to be fully guaranteed. Charlotte will very likely waive all three players, who got a nice payday simply for signing their names to a contract, and next summer the dead money will come off the books entirely.

The real win for Charlotte is picking up three extra second-round picks. Given the way teams move second picks these days, having a handful of additional picks in your stash is always a good thing. And who knows, maybe one ends up being a value pick near the top of the second round?

The Hornets did give up the draft rights to James Nnaji in this deal. As we covered in the Knicks section, he’s an interesting but very raw prospect. Nnaji wasn’t drafted by the current Charlotte front office, so they don’t have any real attachment to him.

Lastly, the NBA is all about relationships. Jeff Peterson is just getting started with running the Hornets front office. Charlotte’s ownership is still relatively new too. Helping to facilitate deals like this is a good way to build cache around the league. Don’t be surprised if Peterson hooks up with the Knicks and/or Timberwolves on future trades.

The Duane Washington Jr. Situation

We have one more thing to cover as part of this trade, because it’s endlessly fascinating.

At the start of the offseason, Duane Washington Jr. became an unrestricted free agent. He had finished a second two-way contract with the New York Knicks, who elected not to tender him a qualifying offer to make Washington a restricted free agent.

Despite a solid Summer League stint for the Knicks, Washington didn’t sign an NBA contract. In late-July, Washington signed a deal with KK Partizan in Serbia.

Wait…if Washington was signed to a deal, how in the world are the Knicks sign-and-trading him to the Charlotte Hornets to make this three-team deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves happen?

The answer is both fairly simple, while the process is fairly complex.

The simple answer is the NBA does not regard non-NBA contracts when considering a player’s NBA free agent status. So, despite Washington having a deal with Partizan, he’s still considered an NBA unrestricted free agent and the Knicks still hold his free agent rights.

Here’s where things start to get a little complicated…

After a couple of silly situations where NBA teams signed-and-traded players who had retired from the league in order to make trade math work (Hi Keith Van Horn!), the CBA was changed. In order to sign-and-trade a player now, that player has to have completed the previous season as a member of your roster.

Because Washington finished last season with the Knicks on a two-way contract, he’s eligible to be a part of a sign-and-trade.

But we still have the fact that Washington is signed with Partizan. And that’s where things get really complicated.

The Knicks did not want to have amend this trade to include a rostered player like Miles McBride simply to make the math work. New York is already thin on depth after this trade, so they really didn’t want to move a rotation player for salary-matching purposes.

This is where creativity and partnerships take over. Signing-and-trading Washington was clearly the best option to get this trade across the finish line. To make that happen, New York had to convince Partizan to play ball.

On one hand, Partizan loses nothing by releasing Washington to be a part of this deal, then re-signing him after he clears waivers from the Hornets. But, alas, things aren’t so simple!

The first issue is that it takes time for a player to receive what is called a Letter of Clearance (LOC) from FIBA. You may remember this from the Sasha Vezenkov situation this summer. FIBA has to clear players to sign contracts when coming to or from leagues under their jurisdiction.

So, in order to be signed-and-traded by the Knicks to the Hornets, Washington had to get a LOC from FIBA that says he’s free and clear from his contract with Partizan. Then, to re-sign with Partizan after clearing waivers from Charlotte, Washington has to get another LOC from FIBA.

All of that takes time. No matter how much the Hornets and Washington might want to set him free, there’s still a 48-hour waiver period in the NBA. And that’s if the FIBA LOC process is expedited very quickly.

And that’s where it gets even more complicated.

Partizan’s season has already started. Not only did Washington play in each of Partizan’s first two games, he started those games. In the first game of the season, the 6-foot-2 guard scored 13 points in 14 minutes. So, it’s safe to say that Washington is a key member of the team.

Making the timing tricky to pull all of this off, Partizan has a string of important EuroLeague contests over the next two weeks. While there wasn’t any reason financially for Partizan to not be good partners in terms of this trade, they aren’t going to want to be down an important player for some key upcoming games.

As it stands, Washington will miss Partizan’s EuroLeague game against Baskonia on October 3. It’s possible that he could be back in the lineup for an Adriatic League game against KK Cibona on October 6. A more likely scenario is that Washington is back for a EuroLeague game against Real Madrid on October 10.

It’s unknown at this point what Partizan is getting paid in terms of a buyout for Washington in this whole process. What is known is that Washington is going to get roughly $2.3 million in NBA salary for this season, while taking a short amount of time off from Partizan, for essentially signing his name a few times on various documents.

All around, this might be the first time we saw a multi-team, multi-league, multi-continent trade in NBA history. This entire process also proves that while it may be hard, make that VERY hard, for teams dealing with apron issues and hard caps to make big trades, it can be done. It just takes some creativity, partnerships and relationships to make it happen. Oh, and a handful of second-round picks too. Don’t ever forget the second-round picks.

 

Keith SmithSeptember 25, 2024

The openings of NBA training camps are just around the corner. The Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets open this week, as they are headed to Abu Dhabi for a pair of preseason games. A week later, the other 28 teams will spring into action.

NBA training camp doesn’t come with the excitement of NFL camp or MLB preseason. Nor does it come with the competition for roster spots. Smaller roster and more guaranteed money mean that NBA rosters are generally set when camp opens.

However, all across the league battles for rotation spots will play out. Incumbents are trying to hold off newcomers. Young players are trying to break through. Vets are trying to hang on for one more season. In some cases, there are roster spots up for grabs too.

We’re going to going team by team and look some of the most interesting battles to monitor as training camps open. We previously covered the Southwest Division. Next up are the Northwest Division teams!

Denver Nuggets

Bench Minutes

Christian Braun is the leader to replace Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in the starting lineup. That leaves his spot as the Nuggets sixth man open. Figuring that out, plus the rest of the bench minutes, is what Michael Malone is tasked with this preseason, and likely in the early part of the regular season.

Here’s what we can bank on: Russell Westbrook will play as the backup point guard. Dario Saric probably has the inside track on the backup big minutes. From there, it’s pretty open. Ideally, Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther will be ready to take on the wing minutes. Keep an eye on Vlatko Cancar getting the mix for backup forward minutes. He looked primed for a rotation role before getting hurt in the summer of 2023.

It's a shame that DaRon Holmes got hurt, because he would have seen some backup big man minutes. As it stands, that probably opens the door for Zeke Nnaji to get another crack at locking down a rotation role.

Denver is a living example of how hard it can be to keep a title window fully open. That’s especially true in the new world with the various apron restrictions. The Nuggets could have kept Caldwell-Pope (at the expense of a bigger tax bill) and continued to try to develop the younger players on the bench. Alas, they didn’t, and now those kids need to be ready to play and ready to play right now.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Bench Wings

The Timberwolves starting lineup is locked in. The backup big minutes are handled by the eminently capable Naz Reid. Rob Dillingham will get the first crack at backing up Mike Conley at point guard. That leaves the backup wings as the only spots up in the air as training camp begins.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker will fill one of those spots, but he’s more of a combo guard than a true wing. That leaves open minutes for a bigger wing. The three contenders are veteran Joe Ingles, third-year player Josh Minott and rookie Terrence Shannon Jr.

Ingles will probably get the first crack at regular minutes. Even at his advanced age, he’s still a good ball-mover and good shooter. Ingles is more of a “defend up” guy, as he’ll take on bigger (read: slower) threes and fours, as opposed to sliding down to defend guards. In many ways, he’s a better-shooting, worse-at-everything-else version of Kyle Anderson.

Minott is still a mystery box. There’s potential there. His limited NBA minutes haven’t yielded much, but his G League profile shows a lot. Minott is a pretty versatile defender. He’s also athletic and a solid finisher. For him to grab regular minutes, he’s going to have to hit three-pointers at a far better clip than he’s shown so far.

In an ideal world, Shannon will be ready sooner, rather than later. Shannon has good size for a wing. He can also score in a number of ways, including hitting spot-up shots. Shannon will have to earn the trust of Chris Finch by proving he can compete on defense before he’ll get minutes.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Start Big or Start Small

The Thunder don’t have anyone really fighting for a roster spot. After a few years of drafting, trading and tinkering, the roster is now well-established. Maybe a few guys could be fighting for minutes, but we have a good amount of data that says Mark Daigneault will use everyone enough to keep them engaged.

That really leaves the only question as: Should the Thunder start big or start small?

OKC added Isaiah Hartenstein and Alex Caruso as their big moves this summer. Either player could start and either player could come off the bench. Until last season, Daigneault was fairly fluid with his starting groups. So, maybe he returns to that and moves the two veterans in and out based on matchups.

If the Thunder go with Hartenstein, they’ll morph from a relatively small team to a relatively big one. Hartenstein and Chet Holmgren would rival the biggest starting frontcourts in the league. Jalen Williams and Lu Dort both have good size/bulk for the wing, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the bigger point guards in the NBA.

If Caruso starts, Oklahoma City will look a lot like last year’s team, but a touch smaller. The defense will still be terrific, and Caruso is a better shooter than Josh Giddey, who he was acquired for. The difference will be coming with Hartenstein off the bench, which is a lot more size than last year’s team could bring in on the second unit.

Bonus: Keep an eye on rookie Dillon Jones forcing his way into the rotation. Kenrich Williams is going to miss some time to open the season. That opens up room for another wing to snag some minutes. Jones is the type do-some-of-everything player that has excelled for the Thunder over the years.

Portland Trail Blazers

Kids vs Vets

Portland is going to be terrible this season. They’re the odds-on favorite to be the worst team in the Western Conference, and probably by a wide margin. That makes this a rebuilding/development season.

But it’s not quite that simple for the Trail Blazers.

Portland has a lot of veterans who are good players and they’re going to play, at least for the first few months of the season. Guys like Jerami Grant, Deandre Ayton, Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams are all going to see minutes. If nothing else, the Blazers need to build up the trade value for those players as best as they can.

This team also has a lot of kids who need to play. Scoot Henderson and Shaedon Sharpe need minutes and a long leash to play through mistakes. Donovan Clingan is the future in the middle, but he’s got to compete with both Ayton and Williams for minutes. Toumani Camara established himself as an NBA guy last year, but he’s in a crowded forward mix.

Portland also has mid-career guys like Anfernee Simons and Deni Avdija, who are going to play a lot too. Neither player is old enough to be out of the mix on the rebuilding Blazers, but neither is a young building block either. The story for both of them is far from written.

Chauncey Billups has his work cut out for him this season. He’s got somewhere between 10 and 13 players who could all have a case to play. And a handful of those guys can’t really play together in functional lineups. Good luck balancing all of that in what’s going to be a push-pull kind of season in Portland.

Utah Jazz

Kids vs Vets

Hey! It’s the same thing! But it’s different in Utah than it is in Portland.

The Jazz have a handful of veterans who have shown when they are healthy (or at least allowed to play) that they can be a solid team. Utah has been in contention for a postseason spot in each of the last two seasons before pivoting towards development (read: prioritizing ping-pong balls).

Lauri Markkanen is as close to a franchise player as the Jazz have, so he’s going to play a lot. Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson are productive veteran guards. As long as they are healthy, they’re also going to play. John Collins seemed to find his jumper and his game again, so he’ll play too. The question for Collins is if he’ll start or come off the bench.

From there, it’s a whole bunch of kids and some well-placed veterans who can play, but won’t gripe if they’re behind younger players.

Look for the Jazz to try to get Walker Kessler back on track. Taylor Hendricks and Cody Williams may well be the wing duo of the future in Utah. Isaiah Collier was a highly-regarded prospect who the Jazz got late in the first round. Kyle Filipowski slid to the second round, but Utah gave him a bunch of guaranteed money because they think highly of him. Brice Sensabaugh flashed as a rookie and looked terrific in Summer League. Last but far from least, is Keyonte George, who already established himself as a starter with solid rookie season.

Whew…that’s a lot of guys. In reality, Will Hardy could play almost any of the 15 players the Jazz have on standard contracts and it would be ok. Look for this year to feature more of the kids earlier on. Utah has an extremely difficult uphill battle to get into postseason contention in the Western Conference right from the jump this season. That probably leans more toward development earlier on, while looking at trades for the non-Markkanen vets on the roster.

Keith SmithSeptember 23, 2024

The openings of NBA training camps are just around the corner. The Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets open this week, as they are headed to Abu Dhabi for a pair of preseason games. A week later, the other 28 teams will spring into action.

NBA training camp doesn’t come with the same level of excitement of NFL camp or MLB preseason. Nor does it come with the competition for roster spots. Smaller roster and more guaranteed money mean that NBA rosters are generally set when camp opens.

However, all across the league battles for rotation spots will play out. Incumbents are trying to hold off newcomers. Young players are trying to break through. Vets are trying to hang on for one more season. In some cases, there are roster spots up for grabs too.

We’re going to go team by team and look some of the most interesting battles to monitor as training camps open. First up are the Southwest Division teams!

Dallas Mavericks

Starting Small Forward

Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and P.J. Washington all seem locked in as starters. At some point, Dereck Lively will overtake Daniel Gafford for good (and it may be on opening night). At small forward it seems pretty simple: It’s Klay Thompson…right?

Yes, at least initially. Thompson was brought to Dallas to start. But what if Naji Marshall’s shooting improvement last season is real? Did you know that Marshall and Thompson both shot 38.7% from three last year? And Marshall wasn’t benefitting from Stephen Curry’s gravity, nor the playmaking he’ll get this season with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving setting him up. At this point, Marshall is also a better and more versatile defender than Thompson is.

Thompson will open the season as a starter, but Marshall is going to push him. And don’t bet against Marshall eventually snagging a starting spot of his own. He brings too many tools to Dallas to keep him off the floor for long.

Houston Rockets

Forward Rotation

The Rockets forward rotation is an example of a good problem to have. Houston is set at the guard position with Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson and rookie Reed Sheppard. At center the Rockets have Alperen Sengun and a terrific veteran backup in Steven Adams.

That means sorting out the forward position will have to be done without sliding a player either up or down a position when the team is healthy. And sorting it out is a tough, but welcomed challenge. Jabari Smith Jr. and Dillon Brooks will start. Tari Eason (who has returned to full health) and Cam Whitmore seemed poised to get the first cracks at backup minutes. That leaves veteran Jeff Green and wing Jae’Sean Tate on the outside looking in.

This is by no means a bad thing. The Rockets have rebuilt their depth with some good drafting and smart veteran acquisitions. Now, it’s up to Ime Udoka to figure out how to make it all work as Houston chases a postseason spot.

Memphis Grizzlies

Small Forward Rotation

Memphis should be back to relatively full health to open the 2024-25 season. That means instead of showing up each day and hoping to just have eight players healthy enough to play, Taylor Jenkins will have to make some real lineup decisions.

Nowhere is that more prevalent than at the small forward spot. The plan last season was that Marcus Smart would get those minutes initially, in addition to functioning as the backup point guard. That may still be the plan, and would give the Grizzlies three ballhandlers and playmakers in their starting lineup, with Ja Morant and Desmond Bane both healthy as well.

Vince Williams Jr. emerged out of the mess of last season as a legitimate NBA rotation player, and a potential starter. GG Jackson showed plenty of potential last season, after starting the year on a two-way deal. Unfortunately, Jackson is going to miss the start of the season after surgery to repair a facture in his right foot. Jake LaRavia also showed signs of real improvement late last season.

With a healthy roster – minus Jackson – Jenkins has the versatility to play this a few different ways, even before Jackson returns. He could also choose to go smaller at times by inserting Luke Kennard or John Konchar to get more shooting on the floor. Getting this particular position solved has been a real challenge during the Grizzlies rise. This time around, they seem to have the players to find a workable solution.

New Orleans Pelicans

Everyone Everywhere All At Once Except a Center

New Orleans has a ton of talent. Like, really, a TON of talent. Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Dejounte Murray, C.J. McCollum, Herb Jones and Trey Murphy III are all starting-caliber players.

Sadly, none of them are a center.

The means the Pelicans have six starters for four spots. (We didn’t forget Jose Alvarado, who will see backup PG minutes. Or Jordan Hawkins, but who knows how he gets minutes?) Unless Willie Green goes super non-traditional and decides to go small and run Williamson as his starting center, this could be an issue for New Orleans that only a trade will fix. And big trades this late in the offseason are fairly uncommon, as are major early-season deals.

Now, for what it’s worth, Basketball Reference says Williamson has logged about 9% of his career minutes as a center. Last season was the most he’s run at the five at 14%. And that was while playing the most games and minutes in his career.

But playing center and starting at center are two pretty different things. The former is something we’ll probably see quite a bit. The latter is something the Pelicans will probably be loathe to do. That means we’re going to see Daniel Theis or Karlo Matkovic or Yves Missi (if either of the latter two are ready as rookies) as at least the opener, and playing the first 5-8 minutes of each half.

Beyond the whole “Who plays center?” stuff is that the Pelicans still have six starters. Barring a trade, we can write Williamson, Ingram and Murray into the lineup in pen. Does McCollum’s veteran-standing lock him into the fifth spot? (Total aside: McCollum might be able to add another two or three productive years onto his career by transitioning into a bench role, a la Eric Gordon over the last several seasons.) Jones is one of the best defensive players on the planet. You don’t get the most out of him by bringing him in against second-line players. Murphy is a bouncy shooter, who is ready for a full-scale know-him-on-a-national-level breakout season.

Having talent is huge in the NBA. But building a team isn’t a fantasy basketball exercise. Real teams need to function. Sometimes you have too many guys. And sometimes that turns sour. The three forms of currency in the NBA are salary, minutes and shots. The Pelicans are coming short in the latter two, which impact the first one. Willie Green has a tricky situation to sort out and some difficult conversations to have, probably as early as Day 1 of camp.

San Antonio Spurs

Wing/Guard Rotation

The earth may orbit the sun, but in San Antonio everything orbits around Victor Wembanyama. All that really matters for the Spurs over the course of this year is finding out who fits with the generational young star and who doesn’t. To further those efforts, the Spurs added Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes as veterans to help a young team find their way.

The frontcourt seems fairly stable. Wembanyama and Barnes will be joined by Jeremy Sochan and Zach Collins as the primary frontcourt guys. Depending on lineups, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie and Malaki Branham will get the remaining small forward minutes.

Paul and Vassell will start at the two guard spots. It’s behind them where things will take some sorting out. Tre Jones has earned the right to at least open the season backing up Paul. But rookie guard Stephon Castle is going to push Jones and push him hard for the backup role. By the end of the season, the Spurs would love to see Castle putting himself in the mix to start in 2025-26.

If Castle is off the ball or in a secondary ballhandler role to open the year, that pushes Branham into a tough spot where he’s kind of a backup small forward. And there probably aren’t any minutes left for Blake Wesley at all. That’s two former first-round picks on the outside looking in.

None of this is a bad thing. The cream will rise to the top and no one is being gifted minutes in San Antonio. Whoever emerges will have earned their time. Paul and Barnes aren’t likely to be long-term Spurs. Their job is to get the young guys ready, even if that means it’s at their own expense minutes- and role-wise. Gregg Popovich and the front office are going to develop guys to play with Wembanyama or they’re going to go get them. And it’s going to happen sooner, rather than later.

 

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