Michael GinnittiNovember 12, 2018

Early Financial Busts

The Washington Wizards (3-9) & Houston Rockets (5-7) are easily the early busts of the 2018-19 NBA season. These two franchises, each with Top 5 payrolls were legitimate contenders coming into the season, but are now poised for change after just 12 games.

Houston took a low risk chance on Carmelo Anthony after his trade & buyout from Atlanta this summer, signing him to a veteran minimum $2.3M salary for the season. That salary is fully guaranteed, even if the Rockets do release him as reports swirl, leaving behind a dead cap hit of $1.5M.

On the court, Houston is trying to combat key losses on the defensive side of the ball by simply outscoring teams - a feat that’s been unsuccessful early on in 2018, as much of the team is struggling to score with any consistency. It’s very possible Daryl Morey, one of the more progressive GMs in the league, explores trade options over the next few weeks to shake up a team that should be contending for June.

Financially speaking, the Rockets have $97M allocated to their guards, the most in the league by a whopping $25M, while their $132M total payroll ranks 4th in the NBA.

Related: The Best & Worst Value NBA Teams

 

Trade Winds in Washington

In Washington, it’s almost inevitable that major change is forthcoming, be it the firing of head coach Scott Brooks, or the trade of one of their main pieces in PG John Wall or SG Bradley Beal.

The Wizards hold the 5th highest payroll in the NBA, thanks to a 5 year, $127M extension to Beal & a what-appears-to-be brutal 4 year, $106M deal for Otto Porter Jr.  They’ve also extended Wall to another 4 years, $169M, a contract that doesn’t even kick in until the 2019-20 season.

Of the three players mentioned here, Beal is the most likely to be traded based on his production & financial situation. He holds a $25M salary this year, followed by $27M & $28.7M through the 2020-21 season.

Related: Washington Wizards' Multi-Year Payrolls

 

The 2019 Lakers

At $89M, the Lakers (7-6) hold the 27th highest (4th lowest) active payroll in the NBA, 34% of of which belongs to LeBron James. Next year though, LA has just 8 players under contract for a total of $62M, 60% of which comes from James’ $37M salary. The Lakers, who possess $41M of practical cap space, are primed to add at least one big name next offseason, or even sooner should they become active leading up to the February 8th trade deadline.

Related: 2019 NBA Free Agents | 2019 NBA Options

 

Butler to Philly

Jimmy Butler ’s move to Philly puts them in position to become major contenders over the next 3 seasons. By acquiring him via trade, the Sixers can now extend him next July using Bird Rights, which won’t require the use of cap space. This will allow Philly the opportunity to fill other needs early in the offseason, before likely rewarding Butler a much deserved pay raise.

As for the rest of their core, Ben Simmons is eligible for restricted free agency after the 2019-20 season, Markelle Fultz holds salaries of $9.7M next year, then a $12M club option in 2020, and Joel Embiid is cemented in through 2022-23. It’s possible Fultz is the odd-man-out here going forward should Butler remain after this season.

Related: Philadelphia 76ers' Multi-Year Payrolls

Michael GinnittiNovember 06, 2018

Our MLB offseason series highlights an outlook of each team's financial status, including 2019 payroll, notable free agents, players with options, arbitration-eligibilites, and contract extension and/or trade candidates as well. We continue our series with the National League West, led by the World Series runner-up Los Angeles Dodgers, who posted 92 wins in 2018 regular season. Keep the conversation going @spotrac

Related Links:

Los Angeles Dodgers

Current 2019 Payroll: $166.5M
Projected Arbitration Salaries: $45M

Extension Candidate:

Alex Wood (SP, 27)
Wood certainly didn't have a repeat campaign of his stellar 2017, but he was very solid across 27 starts and has done enough to show he should stick in this rotation going forward. WIth Ryu expected to walk in free agency, the time seems right to lock in Wood to a multi-year extension. The 27-year-old is eligible for arbitration one more time this winter, but carries a market valuation of $19.7M

Trade Candidate:

Yasiel Puig (OF, 27)
Puig has now posted back to back solid seasons after a few really shaky campaigns in LA. No, he's not the All-Star he was hyped to be coming out of the gate, but he can help a team both at the plate and in the outfield. He'll enter arbitation for the final time this winter, and there just seem to be too many mouths to feed on this Dodgers roster to justify keeping him at an increased price. He'll be one of the bigger names on the trade block if the Dodgers agree.

2019 Free Agents (12):

2019 Options (2):

Arbitration Eligible (14):

Colorado Rockies

Current 2019 Payroll: $86.4M
Projected Arbitration Salaries: $45M

Extension Candidate:

Nolan Arenado (3B, 27)
At some point you just have to give up and pay someone as much money as humanly possible to make sure they don't leave. That's the amount of leverage the Rockies have with Nolan Arenado now, who posted yet another 35+ doubles, 35+ homers, 100+ RBI, .900+ OPS campaign in 2018. Add in Gold Glove defense at the hot corner, and you have one of the elite players of our generation about to hi arbitration for the final time. He'll garner a salary north of $20M, but holds a valuation of $30.5M.

Trade Candidate:

Bryan Shaw (RP, 31), Jake McGee (RP, 32), Ian Desmond (1B/OF, 33)
Each of these players has significant years and dollars remaining on their deals, but are producing nowhere near to their respective value. This isn't a recipe for a good trade, but in the case of the Rockies, they need payroll relief in order to keep their superstars in house (Arenado, Story, Freeland). They'll need a good sales pitch, but at least one of these players needs to go this winter.

2019 Free Agents (7):

2019 Options (1):

Arbitration Eligible (8):

Arizona Diamondbacks

Current 2019 Payroll: $77.9M
Projected Arbitration Salaries: $51M

Extension Candidate:

Patrick Corbin (SP, 30)
Corbin posted a career-year in many regards in 2018, finishing with a 3.15 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 246 Ks & an 11-7 record for the D-Backs. He peaked in a contract year, and with Arizona possibly heading toward a rebuild, might be the top pitcher on the open market.

Trade Candidate:

Zack Greinke (SP, 35)
Greinke has posted back to back solid seasons with around 200 Ks, a 3.1 ERA, and a WHIP right around 1.0. He's still plenty capable of being a top of the rotation arm, but if Arizona decides to sell the farm this winter, his name will be atop the list. The problem? He's owed $104.5M through 2021.

2019 Free Agents (10):

2019 Options (2):

Arbitration Eligible (14):

San Francisco Giants

Current 2019 Payroll: $142.9M
Projected Arbitration Salaries: $17M

Extension Candidate:

Will Smith (RP, 29)
Middle relievers with an ability to finish games as well are all the rage these days, and Smith has shown he's more than capable over the past few seasons with the Brewers & now Giants. He projects to a 3 year contract near $30M heading into his final year of arbitration. The Giants already high payroll may delay this contract another offseason though.

Trade Candidate:

Joe Panik (2B, 27)
Panik's value was on the rise across 2016 & 2017, but took a bit of a dive in 2018, where he played just 100 games, racking up 14 doubiles ,4 homers, and a .254/.307/.332 split. He'll be arbitration eligible for the final time in 2019, and with Alen Hanson a capable, cheaper, option for the expensive Giants, could become a payroll casualty this winter.

2019 Free Agents (12):

2019 Options (2):

Arbitration Eligible (6):

San Diego Padres

Current 2019 Payroll: $51.8M
Projected Arbitration Salaries: $11M

Extension Candidate:

Freddy Galvis  (SS, 28)
Galvis will be seeking a long-term, $11M+ contract on the open market this winter. But if the offers aren't rolling in, he should consider staying in San Diego for another year or two. SS Fernando Tatis, Jr., the Padres top prospect, should be hitting the big leagues at some point in 2019, but having a familiar, productive, veteran presence to pair him with seems like a smart move for an already young squad.

Trade Candidate:

Austin Hedges (C, 25)
The Padres made a bit of a puzzling move when they shopped reliever Brad Hand to the Indians for their top catching prospect Francisco Mejia last summer. Having Hedges in the system already, it doesn't appear likely that both of these players will remain together long. At 22, and with more projected power, Mejia has the higher ceiling right now.

2019 Free Agents (8):

Arbitration Eligible (6):

Michael GinnittiNovember 05, 2018

The Obligatory Le'Veon Bell Update

Le’Veon Bell has 8 days to report to the Steelers or his 2018 season, and $855,529 per week paycheck that comes with it, are completely lost. If he doesn’t report, the Steelers could escalate this situation next February by slapping a transition tag on Bell, which stands to cost around $9M for the 2019 season for the running back position (though Bell may fight this figure with the NFLPA).

The transition tag is similar to a franchise tag, wherein other teams can submit an offer sheet for Bell, that the Steelers will have the right to match or refuse. The difference with the transition tag is, if the Steelers refuse an offer sheet and Bell signs with a new team, they receive no draft pick compensation in return. It should also be noted that it’s possible the Steelers slap another franchise tag on Bell as well.

Bell has forfeited $7,699,761 in 2018 compensation to date, leaving around $6.8M remaining on his offered tag. However the Steelers plan to place Bell on a two-week roster exemption list if and when he reports. Players on this list are generally paid a reduced salary, so it stands to reason that Le’Veon will be earning around or less than $6M in 2018 should he report for Week 10.

Oh and by the way: James Conner now has 1,229 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns in 8 games, while earning $34,000 per week.

Related: 2019 NFL Free Agents

 

Sayonara Sam

Sam Bradford was generously granted his release (well waivers, but it’s all but certain he’ll go unclaimed) from the Arizona Cardinals after a summer, & 3 games that awarded him $15.9375M for 2018, and a chance to cash in a little more should he sign elsewhere for the 2nd half of the season. Including the above nearly $16M, Arizona will shell out $32.2M to their three quarterbacks this year ($11.3M to Rosen, $5M to Glennon). Bradford was almost certainly never going to see the field again for Arizona, due to his whopping $312,500 per game active bonus clause.

While the move clears $20M of cap space for the Cardinals in 2019, it also has some ramifications elsewhere, as the Vikings will now likely lose the 3rd round compensatory pick they were eyeing next April for letting Sam walk in free agency, while the Cardinals should now secure a later round comp. pick.

The 30-year-old Bradford has raked in $130M across nearly 9 NFL seasons with the Rams, Eagles, Vikings, and Cardinals.

Related: Cardinals 2019 Salary Cap Table

 

Kershaw a Dodger for Life?

The Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw came to terms on a revised deal that makes a lot of sense for both sides, and likely allows the future Hall of Fame to finish his career in LA. Kershaw originally had a 2 year, $65M player option for 2019 & 2020, but per his new contract, now stands to make a minimum of $93M over the next three seasons with the Dodgers. Additionally, the contract includes significant bonuses tied to his ability to stay healthy, and remain in the starting rotation, as he’ll cash in $1M each for 24,26,28, & 30 starts each year. There’s also a $1.5M bonus for winning the Cy Young ($500,000 if he finishes Top 3).

Related: Dodgers 2019 Payroll

 

The Young, Cheap, Kings

The Sacramento Kings of an active salary cap of $84M in 2018-19 (3rd lowest, 28th in the league) but are now 6-4 through the first ten games of the season. They find themselves ranked the third best value team in the league according to our True Value Stat, behind the 8-1 Bucks ($117M), and the 8-1 Nuggets ($116M). The team closest to them in terms of low payroll and wins/production would be the Pacers, who own a 7-3 record with a $106M payroll.

Related: Spotrac's NBA Team Value Rankings

Michael GinnittiNovember 02, 2018
Michael GinnittiNovember 01, 2018

Butler’s Next Contract

He’s made it clear he won’t sign an extension in Minnesota, but also, because of max deals for both Karl-Anthony Towns, & Andrew Wiggins, the Wolves cant offer him the maximum contract offer.

If he’s traded to another team, he almost certainly will still not sign an extension until after the season, based on the fact that a player who’s traded can’t sign a new deal until 6 months after the trade date. After the 2018-19 season he’ll have a chance at the maximum 5 years, $190M if he re-signs with that team or a maximum 4 years, $141M if he signs elsewhere during free agency.

 

Rumored Trade Destinations

Houston Rockets

Reported trades for Butler include the Wolves receiving Eric Gordon ($13.5M) &  P.J. Tucker ($8M) which is a valid trade based on Butler’s $20.5M cap hit this year. It’s likely draft picks will be included as well, but these have no bearing on the trade math. The Rockets have reportedly offered four first round picks for Jimmy Butler, but as enticing as that sounds, Wolves President & Head Coach Tom Thibodeau wants a bonafide player in return for Butler, to keep Minnesota relevant now (because draft picks represent assets for an era that he might not be apart of). The 1-5 Rockets are closing in on “desperation” mode, which could force them to go overboard to bring in a player of Butler’s value.

 

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are going nowhere fast to start 2018-19, though they were projected as a top 5 team in the east by many. Many around the team assume it’s getting to the point where either PG John Wall, or SG Bradley Beal will be moved off this team, as the duo just haven’t been able to improve themselves, or the team’s ability to win over the course of the past three seasons. Wall’s 4 year ,$170M extension doesn’t even kick in until next season, while Beal is signed through 2020 at caps of $25M, $27M, & $28M. The Timberwolves might have to toss in a pick to make this happen, but this seems to be one of the more even, and sensible trades out there right now.

 

New York Knicks

While the Knicks don’t have much to offer in terms of superstar players to trade Minnesota, Butler makes a lot of sense in Madison Square Garden. As the current starting SG for New York. Tim Hardaway Jr. seems a logical fit to be considered in this deal, but it will most certainly take more. If the master plan for the Knicks is to bring in a player like Butler, and shoehorn Kevin Durant this offseason, it stands to reason they might consider shopping their 2018 1st round pick Kevin Knox in this trade as well. Trading for Butler now allows the Knicks to sign him next year using Bird Rights, which frees up flexibility & cap to make a run at a Durant or Thompson in free agency.

 

Miami Heat

The Heat were rumored to be very close to locking in a deal prior to the start of the season, but things fell off at the last minute. The long and short here is that Miami is in a bit of financial trouble heading toward the 2019-20 season. They’ve extended a few of their own in recent months, and are playing .500 ball right now, but it might actually make good financial sense to trade key pieces ( Josh Richardson, Dion Waiters, picks) and bring in Butler to run the show, betting on the fact that you can get him to extend next July.

Michael GinnittiOctober 30, 2018

Our MLB offseason series highlights an outlook of each team's financial status, including 2019 payroll, notable free agents, players with options, arbitration-eligibilites, and contract extension and/or trade candidates as well.

We begin our series with the American League Central, led by the Cleveland Indians, who posted 91 wins in 2018, before bowing out to the Astros rather quickly in the postseason. Keep the conversation going @spotrac

Related Links:

Cleveland Indians

Current 2019 Payroll: $93.9M
Projected Arbitration Salaries: $33M

Extension Candidate:

Trevor Bauer (SP, 27)
Bauer took another step toward becoming the ace in Cleveland in 2018, which is an awful lot to say with a 2-time Cy Young winner in Corey Kluber sitting next to him on the bench. The 27-year-old has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining, and has publicly spoken out against "mega" long-term deals, but it might make sense for Cleveland to get ahead of this contract before his value soars too high.

Michael Brantley (OF, 31)
The Indians waited a long time for Brantley to fully heal in hopes of him returning to "batting-champ" form, and it appears to have paid off. The 31-year-old posted 36 doubles, 17 homers, 76 RBIs, and a .309 average in 2018, but is headed to free agency this winter. With a market value north of $19M, it seems unlikely that Cleveland will be his highest bidder, but keeping this marriage together makes a lot of sense for both sides.

 

Trade Candidate:

Jason Kipnis (2B, 31)
Kipnis managed 18 homers, 28 doubles, and 75 RBIs in 2018, but his averages are down across the board, and his defense both at second base and in the outfield is becoming more and more of a liability. The indians may need to come to grips with moving on from the face of their franchise this winter, as their window to win within their current financial structure is closing quickly.

 

2019 Free Agents (12):

2019 Options (2):

Arbitration Eligible (9):

Minnesota Twins

Current 2019 Payroll: $46.5M

Projected Arbitration Salaries: $33M

Trade Candidate:
Miguel Sano (3B, 26), Byron Buxton (OF, 24)
Both previously highly-graded prospects had miserable 2018s, so this wouldn't be a "value" trade by any means. This is simply a vote for both to find a change of scenery, in hopes of reviving their potential to some degree. Sano will require a slight bump up from his previous $602,500 salary as he enters arbitration, while Buxton shouldn't see much more than the $580,000 he earned last year.

2019 Free Agents (5):

2019 Options (2):

Arbitration Eligible (12):

Detroit Tigers

Current 2019 Payroll: $69M

Projected Arbitration Salaries: $32M

Extension Candidate:

Nick Castellanos (3B, 26)
With almost no help around him in the lineup, Castellanos had about as good a season as one could ask for, posting 46 doubles, 23 homers, 89 RBIs and a .298 average. He's eligible for arbitration one last time this winter, but should be the piece the Tigers want to build around. His best recent comp. is Eric Hosmer, who just scored an $18M per year deal in San Diego.

2019 Free Agents (7):

Arbitration Eligible (8):

Chicago White Sox

Current 2019 Payroll: $30.3M

Projected Arbitration Salaries: $38M

Extension Candidate:

Avisail Garcia (OF, 27)
Garcia had a bit of a down season in comparison to his great 2017 campaign, but still managed 19 homers, 49 RBIs and a .719 OPS. He's arbitration eligible for the final time this winter, which will come at a cost around $9M most likely. The White Sox might be smart to buy low on the 27-year-old and lock him in for a few years.

Trade Candidate:

Jose Abreu (1B, 31)
Now over 30, Abreu posted the worst statistical season of his career, so any move would be selling low at this point. But the White Sox need to think in 3-year blocks now, and if Abreu doesn't have a fixed place there, they'll do well to move on. With players like Paul Goldschmidt reportedly on the block, the White Sox can use their deep prospect pool to get better quickly here.

2019 Free Agents (3):

2019 Options (2):

Arbitration Eligible (8):

Kansas City Royals

Current 2019 Payroll: $84.1M

Projected Arbitration Salaries: $11M

2019 Free Agents (3):

2019 Options (2):

Arbitration Eligible (6):

Michael GinnittiOctober 29, 2018

 

Winston’s Quick Fall

Jameis Winston sat out the first three games of the season due to suspension, and was adequate for a few games upon his return to the starting role. But the wheels fell off quickly against Cincinnati in Week 8. Winston found himself on the bench, watching “FitzMagic” nearly bring the Bucs all the way back from the dead.

Financially speaking it seems nearly impossible that Tampa Bay allows Winston back next year on his $20.9M salary. They can release him prior to the start of the league in March with no cap or cash ramifications. This salary is guaranteed for injury right now however, meaning Tampa would be wise to tread lightly with Winston over the remaining 8 weeks of 2018. It’s possible he’s played his last snap there.

 

The Return of Andrew Luck

Speaking of coming back from the dead, Andrew Luck not only appears healthy, he looks as good as ever through the first 8 weeks of 2018. The 29-year-old has contract outs in his deal every spring going forward, but has posted 280 yards per game, 23 touchdowns, 8 INTs, and a 96 passer rating through the first half. He and the Colts are on a 2-game win streak and staying within reach of the first place Texans in the AFC South.

His comeback could have Jacoby Brissett on the trade block today. The 25-year-old would bring caps of $389,157, & $915,114 with him to a new team, leaving behind dead cap hits of $370,918 to the Colts in 2018.

 

The Surprising Seahawks

The Seahawks were on a path to nowhere to start this season, after another offseason of gutting their defense, turning over offensive weapons, and trying once again to fortify an offensive line in front of Russell Wilson.

The 4-3 Seahawks are a surprise team thus far, and stand safely in 2nd place behind the Goliath Rams in the NFC West, and the pressure might be on to be active at this trade deadline, and certainly come the offseason. With the end-game goal to convince Wilson they can rebuild this thing on the fly, and lock him in to a new deal. Wilson is set to enter a contract year in 2019.

 

Another Boston Championship

The Boston Red Sox secured their 9th World Series title last night against an under matched Los Angeles Dodgers team, putting a bow on an historic season from start to finish.

Boston became just the third team since the year 2000 to win the title while carrying the highest payroll in the league that year. The 2000 Yankees & 2009 Yankees were the only two others in the past 18 seasons.

Boston will have some decisions to make this winter, most notably in their bullpen, where Craig Kimbrel, & Joe Kelly are slated for free agency. Other notables include SP Nathan Eovaldi and World Series MVP Steven Pearce, while David Price holds a $31M player option, and Eduardo Nunez holds a $5M player option.

 

The Maple Leaf Still Unsigned

The Toronto Maple Leafs took a hit this weekend when young star Auston Matthews  injured his shoulder and is expected to miss a month. Which puts a brighter spotlight on restricted free agent William Nylander, who’s yet to come to terms with the Leafs, opting to hold-out for now nearly an entire month.

Nylander wants a long-term deal to remain a well-paid part of the Leafs’ core, with a reportedly asking price of $8.5M per year. The Leafs already have 7 players with a contract of 5 years or longer, and John Tavares’ free agent deal worth $11M per year makes allocated dollars elsewhere a lot harder.

Toss in the fact that young defenseman Jake Gardiner will be an unrestricted free agent, and offensive stars Matthews & Mitchell Marner will be restricted free agents next spring, and Toronto has a log jam of contracts that need attention in the coming months.

Nylander has top-line talent both as a scorer and a playmaker, so it’s a loss to not have him dressed - especially now with the injury to Matthews. It’s tough to tell if they’ve been actively shopping the 22 year old, but all signs point to that being the end game here, based on the big offseason they’re facing in 2019 as noted above.

Worst case scenario for the Leafs & the NHL? Nylander and his camp (and possible his brother too, who currently plays in the Sabres’ organization) bail out completely and take their talents to the KHL, where the money will be plentiful and his role can be valued properly.

Michael GinnittiOctober 28, 2018

Michael Thomas, WR, 25, Saints

If you haven’t figured out how good Michael Thomas is yet, you simply haven’t been paying attention. The Saints receiver has over 250 catches in less than 40 games, and while the knock on him has been a lack of touchdowns (9 total in his first two seasons), the 25-year-old is on pace for 10 in 2018 alone. He’s catching more than 70% of his targets, and his ability to run routes, get himself open, and work across all facets of the field appears to be a quarterback’s dream.

The 2nd round pick in 2016 will be heading into a contract year in 2019, but the Saints likely won’t let him get that far without a new deal. Financially he holds an $18.2M valuation, which puts him just ahead of the deal Odell Beckham Jr. signed in NY, making him the highest average paid WR in NFL history. He’ll be seeking $55M in 3-year cash, $66M+ of practical guarantees, with $41M+ guaranteed at signing - which are all tops in the league currently among WRs.

Related: View Michael Thomas' Valuation, Active WR Contracts, Cumulative WR Contract Cash

 

Frank Clark, DE, 25, Seahawks

In terms of edge players who’ve been asked to rush the passer and fall back into coverage, Clark has been one of the best in the game this year. The 2nd round pick in 2015 had a great 2016, then took a bit of a step back last year, but has certainly rounded back into form in 2018, and is peaking in a contract year.

The 25-year-old is likely heading toward a deal similar to what Trent Murphy locked in with the Bills (3 years, $22.5M), or what Brandon Graham scored from the Eagles (4 years, $26M), with an AAV in the $8.5M range. Though continued production in 2018 will obviously increase all of this quickly. He’s scheduled to hit free agency in March.

Related: View Clark's Market Valuation

 

Dee Ford, OLB, 27, Chiefs

With Justin Houston out of the lineup for multiple weeks in 2018, the Chiefs have needed Ford to turn it up a notch, and he’s responded. After an injury shortened, and unproductive 2017, Ford is putting himself inline for a nice payday as he nears free agency in March. If he follows through with his current pace of around 15 sacks, the Chiefs will have plenty to discuss this winter. Can a franchise tag or long-term deal for Ford exist along with Houston on the roster, or will one have to go?

His production this year vs. what he’s done over the past 3+ seasons is apples and oranges, so from a calculated value standpoint he falls in just north of $11M per year. But he’s shown he can handle an edge rush, drop back in coverage, and handle himself adequately against the run as well, putting him in prime position to be a Top 3 defensive free agent on the open market next March - assuming KC let’s him get there.

Related: View Dee Ford's Market Valuation, Top Average Paid Edge Defenders

 

Russell Wilson, QB, 29, Seahawks

We made note prior to this season that it was a very big year for the Seahawks, who, after gutting their defense, and turning over a lot of their offensive pieces across the past few seasons needed to prove they were still capable of building a team that Russell Wilson could work with successfully. So far so good. The 4-3 Seahawks are a surprise team thus far, and stand safely in 2nd place behind the Goliath Rams in the NFC West.

Why the urgency in 2018? Wilson will be entering a contract year in 2019, and on the cusp of 30-years-old as well, both notable factors in his immediate future, which certainly doesn’t have to be in Seattle. Wilson has slipped down the advanced ratings in the past few seasons, but it’s in direct connection with Seattle’s inability to bring in and/or keep viable weapons around him on a consistent basis. Were the Seahawks to nosedive in the standings this year, It could’ve been a direct path to an entire rebuild for the franchise, something Wilson most certainly wouldn’t have been interested in sticking around for. But with a strong start to 2018, Seattle needs to show they can rebuild this thing on the fly, via the trade deadline this week, and certainly in the upcoming offseason when a few more cap dollars open up at their disposal. Until that happens, don’t expect Wilson to sign an extension of any kind to remain a the Seahawks QB.

Regardless, the 29-year-old has done enough according to our calculations to push for a deal at or above the $30M per year mark. It stands to reason that Matt Ryan’s 5 year, $150M contract with $100M guaranteed is the foundation point for Wilson’s negotiations.

Related: View Russell Wilson's Market Valuation, Top Average Paid QBs, Active QB Contracts, Cumulative QB Contract Cash

 

Le’Veon Bell, RB, 26, Unsigned

Much has been made about the lengthly hold out that Bell has taken from Steelers, which is expected to end in the coming weeks, non-coincidentally after the trade deadline. Le’Veon will still be able to reel in around $7M in 2018, but will be focused mostly on staying healthy as he eyes his first real pay day next March.

The challenge with valuing Le’Veon, for anyone, is that it’s criminal to compare him to other running backs alone. Bell’s been the second leading receiver for the Steelers for years, and only not first because he’s competing with Antonio Brown for targets. While all of these numbers, both in the rush and pass game, look amazing, the red flag that seems to stand above it all for most is the usage he’s put on his body through three seasons at Michigan State, and now 5+ seasons in Pittsburgh. Yes he’s only going on 27, but it’s hard to ignore the drop off in pay to running backs nearing 30, and the coinciding drop in production as well (Adrian Peterson in 2018 notwithstanding).

We’ve run a series of valuations on Bell over the past three seasons, but with a running back market so weak around him financially, could never come close to fairly producing a calculation worthy of his multi-use talents. However, now that the Rams have rewarded Todd Gurley with an early, impactful extension we at least have someone to bounce production off. So just simply speaking, Bell vs. Gurley across 2016-2017, Bell comes out 8.6% better, which brings his valuation to $15.5M. If we’re talking top marks across the board here, he’ll need $40M+ over three years, $45M+ practically guaranteed, with $24M+ guaranteed at signing.

Related: Top Average Paid RBs, Active RB Contracts, Cumulative RB Contract Cash

Michael GinnittiOctober 23, 2018

Patrick Peterson, CB, ARI, 28

The 7-time Pro Bowler has been vocal about wanting a change of scenery from a Cardinals team very much in rebuild mode. He’s signed thru 2020, with cap hits of $11.8M and $13.1M over the next two years. With no future guarantees, the deal offers no-dead-cap outs after 2018. It’s likely Peterson would require a new deal after 2018 whether he’s traded or not.

Trade Now:
Cardinals take on $9.1M of dead cap this year & another $1.2M in 2019. New team acquires Peterson with cap hits of 5.82M, $11.25M, & $12.55M.

Trade Next Offseason:
Cardinals take on $1.2M of dead cap, clearing $10.6M of cap space New team acquires him with cap hits of $11.25M, & $12.55M.

Verdict: The Cardinals hang onto Peterson for the remainder of 2018, but trade him next March.

 

LeSean McCoy, RB, BUF, 30

McCoy suffered a head injury in Week 7 against the Colts which has put his Week 8 status against the Patriots on Monday Night Football in serious doubt. With the trade deadline the following day, it’s becoming more and more unlikely that a deal gets done. He’s signed through 2019, with $6.425M in cash to be made and a $9.05M cap figure next year. He holds $2.625M of dead cap which stays with the Bills if he’s traded or released.

Trade Now:
Bills take on $5.73M of dead cap in 2018 & another $2.625M in 2019. New team acquires McCoy with cap hits of $3.21M in 2018, and $6.425M.

Trade Next Offseason:
Bills take on $2.625M of dead cap, clearing $6.425M of cap.

Release Next Offseason:
Bills take on $2.625M of dead cap, new team acquires McCoy with a $6.425M cap hit/salary.

Verdict: Buffalo can’t find a viable trade partner this year or next March, and release McCoy.

 

Jordan Howard, RB, CHI, 23

Howard has the potential to be a three-down back in this league, but doesn’t appear to be a good fit for Matt Nagy’s current system. He’s in year 3 of his rookie contract, so the finances are still very reasonable.

Trade Now:
New team acquires Howard with salaries of $333,529, & $720,000 through 2019. The Bears take on dead cap hits of $296,470 in 2018 & another $62,007 in 2019.

Release or Trade Next Offseason:
New team acquires Howard at $720,000 if traded, while the Bears take on a $62,007 dead cap hit either way.

Verdict: Howard is traded over the next week

 

Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN, 30

With a $17.5M cap figure looming in 2019, something’s going to give with Thomas and the Broncos at some point in the very near future. The 30-year-old has come on strong over the past few weeks after a really tough start to 2018. He has $5M remaining on his 2018 salary and a $14M non-guaranteed salary in 2019.

Trade Now:
New team acquires Thomas at $4.5M in 2018, & $14M in 2019. The Broncos take a $7.53M dead cap hit in 2018, and another $3.53M hit in 2019.

Trade or Release Next Offseason:
Thomas would bring a non-guaranteed $14M salary to a new team if traded, leaving $3.53M of dead with the Broncos either way

Verdict: Either Thomas or Sanders is traded this week

 

Tyrod Taylor, QB, CLE, 29

The Taylor era in Cleveland ended pretty quickly, but Taylor still represents a very good backup, and in some cases, an upgrade at the starting QB position for teams across the league. The 29-year-old is set to hit free agency next March.

The problem? He has $5.8M remaining on his 2018 salary - which may be too rich for most teams looking to add a depth piece. Though based on the scenario, a new team could choose to extend Taylor, restructuring the remaining salary to lower his cap figure in 2018 (though they would need to absorb the entire $5.8M at the time of his acquisition, prior to restructuring).

Trade Now:
New team acquires Taylor on a $5.3M salary/cap hit for the remainder of 2018. The Browns take on $10.3M dead cap in 2018.

Verdict: Taylor is probably on more than a couple of team’s Watch Lists right now, but the price just seems too high for the role he would be assuming elsewhere. He probably needed a QB1 injury in the past few weeks to be considered for a trade this week. He’ll hit free agency in March.

 

Devante Parker, WR, MIA, 25

He’s been on the trade block for about a year now, but injuries to Kenny Stills & Albert Wilson in Week 7 may have squashes his exit plans for now. The 25-year-old has never gelled with this franchise and is in dire need of a fresh start. Miami exercised a $9.3M 5th-year-option for 2019 which doesn’t become fully guaranteed until March 13th, but is guaranteed for injury now.

Trade Now:
New team acquires him with $1M remaining in 2018, & a $9.3M option in 2019. Miami takes on $2.4M of dead cap in 2018.

Trade Next Offseason:
New team acquires a $9.3M fully guaranteed salary/cap, no dead cap to the Dolphins.

Release Next Offseason:
If done before March 13th, the Dolphins will take on no dead cap.

Verdict: Parker stays based on Miami’s health issues at the WR position, and has a chance to showcase himself for a possible trade next March. He’ll be outright released otherwise.

 

Derek Carr, QB, OAK, 27

The Raiders are clearly cleaning house to make room for “Gruden’s Guys” in 2019, and the jury is likely still out on the starting QB. It seems too much to ask for a team like the Jaguars or Giants to give up on their current QB1s and drop a guy like Carr in to a system he’s never run a play for. With that said, his contract can be thrown out VERY easily after 2018, whether it’s in Oakland or elsewhere.

Trade Now:
New team acquires a $3.9M salary in 2018, then caps of $20M, $19M, $19.6M, & $19.8M thru 2022. Oakland takes on a $21M dead cap hit in 2018, & another $7.5M in 2019.

Trade or Release before March 15th:
New team acquires salaries of $20M, $19M $19.6M, & $19.8M thru 2022 if traded, Oakland takes on a $7.5M dead cap hit either way.

Verdict: Carr is given the chance to prove he’s either good enough to remain an option for Oakland in 2019, or at least good enough to be trade-worthy after the season. If not, he’s released next March.

 

Other Notable Candidates

DeSean Jackson, WR, TB, 31
Jackson's had a surprisingly great year, though he remains a bit of a boom or bust receiver at this stage of his career. The 31-year-old would bring caps of $5.8M & $10M to a new team, leaving behind $5.2M of dead cap to the Bucs in 2018. His deal holds no guarantees or dead cap going forwad.

Deone Bucannon, LB, ARZ, 26
The 2014 first rounder is in need of a change of scenery, & the Cardinals appear poised to ship him out this weekend. He holds $4.6M remaining on his 5th-year-option this year as he nears free agency, leaving behind $4.1M of dead cap to Arizona.

Jerry Hughes, DE, BUF, 30
Hughes has had a much needed bounce-back season in 2018, putting himself in a good spot to be moved to a contender for the rest of the year. The 30-year-old has $3.3M remaining in 2018, & $7.5M in 2019, which stand as good values for a new team. The Bills would take on dead cap hits of $7M in 2018, & $2.9M in 2019.

Pierre Garcon, WR, SF, 32
The veteran WR is banged up, but has shown he can still be a playmaker in the right system. Contractually he holds $3.5M remaining in 2018, with club options over the next three seasons that need to be exercised before the league year starts. His trade would leave behind dead cap of $5.7M in 2018 & $7.2M in 2019 to the 49ers.

HaHa Clinton-Dix, FS, GB, 25
The 2014 first round pick has $3.15M remaining on his 5th-year option season in Green Bay, and his headed for free agency next March. A trade next week would leave behind $2.8M of dead cap.

Karl Joseph, SS, OAK, 25
The 2016 first round pick could be the next man out in Oakland. He would bring $810,207 in 2018, $2M in 2019, & an option in 2020 to a new team, leaving behind dead caps of $2.43M in 2018 & $1.7M in 2019 to the Raiders.

Gareon Conley, CB, OAK, 23
The 2017 #24 selection has never found footing in Oakland after a year one injury, and a rough start to 2018. He holds caps of $4.9M in 2018, $1.4M in 2019 & $1.9M in 2020 with an option available in 2021, and could be a steal for a new team should he be able to integrate well. His trade would leave behind dead cap of $1.8M in 2018, & $2.8M in 2019.

Janoris Jenkins, CB, NYG, 29
If the Giants are still looking to sell off, Jenkins is the likely next candidate. The 29-year-old still holds strong value on the market, and 2 1/2 years remaining on his current contract. He would bring caps of $3.3M, $11.25M, & $11.25M to a new team, leaving behind dead cap hits of $7.6M in 2018, & $7M in 2019.

Shane Ray, LB, DEN, 25
Denver already declined a 5th-year-option for 2019, so Ray's time in Denver is likely nearing an end one way or another. The Broncos would do well to test the market this weekend and try to bring back an asset for the 2015 1st-rounder. Ray would bring a cap of $888,609 to a new team, leaving behind $2M of dead cap to Denver.

Chris Harris, CB, DEN, 29
The Broncos aren't exactly deep in the secondary right now, but Harris is trending toward an offseason cap casualty right as it stands, so finding some trade value this weekend makes sense. The 29-year-old would bring caps of $3.9M, & $7.9M to a new team, leaving behind dead cap hits of $6.4M in 2018 & $866,666 in 2019.

Ameer Abdullah, RB, DET, 25
A major non-factor in Detroit this year with Blount, Johnson & Riddick all squarely ahead of him, it's a little surprising Abdullah hasn't been moved or released yet, The 25-year-old has $464,159 remaining in 2018 as he nears free agency in March. The Lions would take on $858,245 of dead cap per his release or trade.

Jacoby Brissett, QB, IND, 25
Moving Brissett wasn't even an option 3 months ago with the uncertainty of Andrew Luck in question, and that still may be the case for the Colts now. But it stands to reason that a team or two will inquire this weekend about the versatile QB. The 25-year-old would bring caps of $389,157, & $915,114 with him to a new team, leaving behind dead cap hits of $370,918 to the Colts in 2018.

Spencer Ware, RB, KC, 26
Ware's role is limited amidst a plethora of weapons in KC, but he still holds value as the handcuff to Kareem Hunt. This likely means he stays in KC, playing his contract out as he nears free agency in March. If he's moved, he'll bring $383,823 with him to a new team, leaving $724,510 of dead cap to the Chiefs.

 

Michael GinnittiOctober 22, 2018

The Bortles Benching

A week 7 loss to the Texans drops the once AFC favorite Jaguars to 3-4 in 2018. Statistically speaking, QB Blake Bortles is producing at or slightly better than his 4-year averages to date - but that’s not saying much. Jacksonville benched the 26-year-old again yesterday, putting his future very much in question.

Bortles signed a 3 year $54 million extension last February that came with $26.5M guaranteed at signing, $15M of which in the form of a signing bonus. $6.5M of his 2019 salary is already fully guaranteed, meaning the Jaguars hold $16.5M of dead cap to release him after 2018. While a trade would make this figure just $10M of dead cap - it’s highly unlikely at this point. It should also be noted the the $6.5M in guarantees does contain offsets, meaning Jacksonville would be credited back any salary that Bortles is able to earn on another team next year - up to the $6.5M mark.

Related: View the Bortles Contract

 

Potential QB Replacements via Trade

Tyrod Taylor, 29, CLE
Taylor has $5.8M of his $10M salary remaining in 2018, which would exhaust nearly all of the Jaguars projected remaining cap space for 2018. But there’s a chance he could be a real upgrade for Jacksonville in the 2nd half of the season. He’s set to be a free agent after 2018.

Eli Manning, 37, NYG
Falling out of favor in a similar fashion to Bortles, Manning has $6.1M remaining on his 2018 compensation, which seems too rich in comparison to Taylor - though Manning’s experience is hard to ignore. Eli is due another $17M in 2019 with a cap hit of $23.2M. It’s very possible he’s looking for work in early March.

Teddy Bridgewater, 26, NO
The Saints probably aren’t willing to let Bridgewater get away as they look to control as much depth as possible for a Super Bowl run in 2018. But he was an offseason target in Jacksonville, so I imagine the conversation is at least being had internally. The Saints restructured Bridgewater’s salary upon his trade, which means he only has $550,000 remaining were he to be traded this week. Also set to hit the free agent market in 2019, this might be a real possibility for the Jags if New Orleans is willing to play ball.

Robert Griffin III, 29, BAL
The Ravens are competing with Jacksonville to stay alive in the AFC, but Baltimore’s third QB might be a better option than Jacksonville’s first. Griffin looked good this offseason, and is strongly supplanted behind Joe Flacco & Lamar Jackson on the depth chart going forward. There have been worse ideas for sure. Griffin has $588,235 remaining on his 2018 salary and will become a free agent next March.

Related: Available Free Agent QBs

 

The Well-Paid Rams are Cashing In

The Rams were rewarded in Week 7 by every player they tendered mega contract-extensions to this past offseason. Todd Gurley is in a different zip code from the other running backs in football right now as his three scores Sunday now give him 14 on a young season. He’s on pace for whopping 2,200 yards from scrimmage in 2018, on the heels of his 4 year, $57.5M extension this July. Gurley’s cap figure jumps to a manageable $9.2M in 2019 before things get really interesting. Currently, Todd Gurley holds cap figures of $17.25M, $13.2M, $14.2M, & $10.4M through 2023. Even with a restructure in 2020, the Rams are going to have to allocate some serious financial real estate to their running back going forward.

Aaron Donald has 8 sacks through 7 games, including 4 this weekend against the 49ers, where he also tallied a forced fumble and 8 tackles. The 27-year-old locked down a 6 year, $135M extension in late August, which strongly secures him $87M over the next 4 seasons. His cap figure more than doubles in 2019, up to $17.1M next season before it extends to $25M in 2020, & $27.8M in 2021.

WR Brandin Cooks reeled in 5 catches for 64 yards and a score against the 49ers in Week 7. The 25-year-old is now averaging 5 grabs and 81 yards per game in 2018. While the TDs are being allocated to many of the Rams’ other weapons, he’s been as-advertised this season in LA. Cooks signed a 5 year $80M extension this past July, which will snag him at the very least, $50M over the next 3 seasons, with another $12M in 2021 very likely as well.

These three players currently hold combined cap figures of $59.05M in 2020. Assuming a $197M league cap, this could be nearly 30% of the Rams total allocations.

Who’s next? OG Rodger Saffold, DT Ndamukong Suh, FS LaMarcus Joyner, & ILB Bryce Hager are the notable free agents next March.

Related: The Rams' Multi-Year Spending Breakdown

 

Free Agent Stock Up:

  • Tyrell Williams WR, LAC, now has 20 grabs, 428 yards, & 4 TDs.
  • Golden Tate, WR, DET, he’s on pace for 80+ catches & 7 TDs in a contract year.
  • Adrian Peterson, RB, WAS, has a legitimate shot at 1,500 yards from scrimmage.
  • Rodger Saffold, OG, LAR, he’s been a force on the left side of Jared Goff
  • Frank Clark DE, SEA, 14 tackles, 6 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, & an INT in 6 games.

Related: The Complete List of 2019 NFL Free Agents

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