The Raiders Appear Poised to Blow it Up

With the shock of trading Khalil Mack still not worn off, Raiders fans might be in for a lot more shuffling soon, as multiple players find themselves on the Trade Block Hot Stove.

Notably, this includes WR Amari Cooper, CB Gareon Conley, and even QB Derek Carr. We’ll break down the financial situation for each here:

Amari Cooper has $452,941 remaining on his 2018 salary, and a $13.924M option for 2019. While Oakland has exercised this option, they (or any team he’s traded to) can release him from the contract prior to the start of the league year on March 13th with no dead cap impact. The Raiders would eat $6.75M of dead cap to trade Cooper before the upcoming 10/30 deadline.

Gareon Conley found himself on the bench for Week 6, which doesn’t bode well for his future in Oakland. He has $608,747 remaining on his 2018 salary, then $1.4M, & $1.8M respectively through 2020, with a potential 5th-year option available in 2021. Trading him in the next 2 weeks leaves behind $1.7M of dead cap in 2018, and another $2.86M in 2019 (which represents no savings)

Derek Carr is the least likely candidate to be traded, but his roster spot for 2019 is far from guaranteed. His 5 year $125M contract was always really just a 2 year $47M deal in terms of structure, as the Raiders can move on after 2018 for just a $7.5M dead cap hit, a savings of $15M next year. Carr’s got an awful lot of work to do over the next few weeks to justify his $22.5M cap figure in 2019.

The Patriots Receiving Core

With their thrilling 43-40 victory over the Chiefs last night, New England once again pushes themselves into the AFC favorite conversation (has there been a better October team in the history of the game?). The Patriots have now for a long time been a “weapon-by-committee” franchise, installing game plans built for different players on a weekly basis. While the success speaks for itself, it’s also very hard to keep a team intact for more than a season at a time. In looking forward to their pending free agents, we see three WRs who’ve had an impact in 2018, Chris Hogan, Phillip Dorsett, & Cordarrelle Patterson, with Josh Gordon slotted for restricted free agency as well. It’ll be interesting to keep an eye on the roles of these players heading down the stretch, as it pertains to the 2019 roster.

Relevant Sidenote: Julian Edelman’s return to the lineup could not be more evident, as the team has settled almost immediately upon his reinstatement. With that said, New England deserves a dump truck load of credit for how they’ve handled Edelman financially over the past 5 seasons locking him in on a 4 year $17M extension in 2014, then a 2 year, $11M extension this past June. The 32-year-old is the 43rd highest average paid WR in football.

Trending Down: Case Keenum

The 2-4 Broncos may soon be inline for another QB controversy, as free agent signing Case Keenum struggled again in a Week 6 loss to the Rams. Keenum also left a portion of the game to be evaluated for a concussion, at which time the 2017 Mr. Irrelevant Chad Kelly took the field to a huge ovation from frustrated fans.

Financially speaking, Keenum is on a 2-year $36M deal with the Broncos, but Denver can move on after 2018 with a decent out plan, which breaks down as follows:

Trading Keenum after 2018 (not likely): Leaves behind $3M of dead cap to Denver, clearing $18M in cap space for 2019.

Releasing Keenum after 2018: Leaves behind $10M of dead cap to Denver, clearing $11M of cap space for 2019, with the chance for more savings if Keenum signs elsewhere, as his $7M of salary guaranteed next year comes with offsets.

For now, Keenum holds a $21M cap hit, with $18M cash due in 2019.

Trending Up: Nathan Peterman’s interception total.

Thanks to an outstanding performance from their defense, the Bills had a great look at evening up their record at 3-3 at Houston Sunday afternoon. But a costly elbow injury to rookie QB Josh Allen made way for Nathan Peterman, who, as he’s down in all of his appearances, drove the Bills down the field for a score on his first possession, then settled back into his usual role of passing the ball to the other team a few times a quarter. If Josh Allen’s injury keeps him away, look for newly signed veteren Derek Anderson to man the ship from here forward in Buffalo. Anderson will earn $775,000 if he sticks with the team through Week 17. Should things tumble downhill from here for Buffalo, there's a silver lining in 2019. The Bills have 9 draft picks, and almost $91M in projected cap space for next season to date.

Dak Watch

The Cowboys brutal start to 2018 had the coach one foot out the door and any mention of keeping Dak Prescott around long-term locked away in jar. But at 3-3 now, in a wide open NFC East race, both Dallas & Dak have a legitimate chance to not only salvage this year, but put themselves in the drivers seat on a more long-term level. It’s been clear for 6 weeks now that the Cowboys simply don’t have enough offensive weapons to be consistently great scorers, but the defense has over achieved to date, and Dak Prescott found a way to balance the offense against the top defense in the league in Jacksonville this weekend.

If this trend can continue, Dallas should consider being aggressive at the trade deadline to ramp up the receiving core. Prescott will have completed his third season after 2018, making him extension eligible. While it’s too early to assume one way or another about his future with the Cowboys, he took a big step forward this weekend toward making his case for a payday.

No Guarantees in Seattle

Earl Thomas’ apparent season-ending leg injury defines the reasoning behind he, Le’Veon Bell, Julio Jones, Khalil Mack, Aaron Donald threatened or enacted a hold out in search of more guaranteed financial stability. The Seahawks’ safety will see his contract expire next March, and it seems safe to assume that his next deal won’t be in Seattle…The 29-year-old has earned $56M over 9 seasons, and showed he’s still capable of producing, as his 3 INTs in 3 weeks were already more than he reeled in all of 2017. A healthy Thomas will be seeking a deal north of Harrison Smith’s $10.25M AAV

» Top Paid Free Safeties in Football

What Should Le'Veon Do?

Thomas' injury should inspire Le'Veon Bell not only to continue down his hold-out path, not only through Week 10, but for the entire 2018 season. What does this mean for Bell financially?

If he signs his current franchise tag by November 13th, he'll be eligible to earn a little less than $7M to finish the season with the Steelers (or whatever team he's been traded to at that point). This also means that if a team were to franchise tag him again in 2019, it would be equal to the QB franchise tag - an unheard of price tag for a running back.

If he DOESN'T sign his tag by November 13th, he's not eligible to play at all in 2018, and the Steelers (or his current team) could then franchise tag him again as if it were a 2nd tag (the price might actually be a bit lower than his current $14.5M tag based on the running back market.

So there in lines the dilemma. If he signs this year, he risks putting his body on the line and facing an Earl Thomas-type career altering injury. But he all but ensures that he will NOT be franchise tagged in 2019. If he doesn't sign, and holds out the entire 2018 season, it's actually possible that the Steelers would slap another tag on him next February, betting that he's not willing to hold out two years, and pushing this whole circus even further down the line.

Eifert's Injury Loss

Injuries have decimated Tyler Eifert’s whole career in Cincy, and it appears the 28-year-old will now miss the remainder of 2018 with a broken ankle. The Bengals brought back Eifert on a 1 year deal worth up to $5.5M, however he stands to miss out on $750,000 in per-game-active bonuses from here out, leaving him with $4.75M earned in 2018, before he becomes eligible for free agency again next March.

» 2019 Free Agent Tight Ends

Experienced Kickers

Adam Vinatieri became the NFL All-Time leader in field goals this weekend, more than cementing his trip to Canton whenever the now 45-year-old decides to hang up the cleats. His $47.25M in career earnings since 1996 rank 2nd all-time to Sebastian Janikowski ($52.8M) who hit a game-winning field goal of his own yesterday for Seattle

» All-Time Kicker Career Earnings

Quarterback Round Up

All four quarterbacks drafted in the first round of this past draft who started Week 4 lost. While Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen both had their respective teams in the game late, Josh Allen and Sam Darnold posted miserable outings for the Bills & Jets.

Elsewhere, Ryan Fitzpatrick forfeited his starting role to the newly activated Jameis Winston, but the position as a whole remains in much question heading toward 2019. Should Tampa Bay decline Winston’s $21M option next year, they’ll have no quarterbacks under contract for the start of the league year.

Mitchell Trubisky had the breakout game many have been waiting for, throwing for 6 touchdowns in a route of the Buccaneers Sunday. He and Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) have a chance to follow in the footsteps (if not surpass) the that Jared Goff & Carson Wentz took just a season ago.

While Philip Rivers still looks the part for the Chargers, both Eli Manning & Ben Roethlisberger continue to struggle for their respective Giants & Steelers. Both players have one year remaining on their contracts, and could be release (or retirement) candidates following this season.

» Active Quarterback Contracts

MLB Payrolls & the Playoffs

The Red Sox carry the highest payroll and the best record. This is the 2nd straight year that will be the case, but it’s been quite a different story in recent years prior…

2018 - Red Sox, 1st
2017 - Dodgers, 1st
2016 - Cubs, 5th
2015 - Cardinals, 12th
2014 - Angels, 7th

Current Playoff Teams vs. 2018 Payroll

Boston, 1st
Dodgers, 3rd
Chicago Cubs, 4th
NY Yankees, 6th
Houston, 9th
Colorado, 13th
Cleveland, 14th
Atlanta, 18th
Milwaukee, 22nd
Oakland, 28th

Related: 2018 MLB Payroll Tracker 

The Current Award Candidates & Their Contract Status

NL Cy Young:
Max Scherzer is an anomaly, as his $30M AAV is 6th in all of baseball, 4th among SPs, yet he’s the 24th best value pitcher in baseball, and a 34-year-old work horse…He still has $150M guaranteed remaining on his contract which runs through 2021.

Jacob deGrom is a victim of being late to the party. He was 26 years old when he first hit the big leagues, and still has 2 eligible years of arbitration remaining. His $7.4M salary for 2018 ranks 40th among starting pitchers, while his 1.77 ERA ranks first - by a lot. He carries a $31M+ market value into the winner, and is a major trade candidate…

Aaron Nola is on his way to being a very rich man, but it might take awhile. The 25-year-old will be arbitration eligible for the 1st time in 2019, meaning he’s not eligible for free agency until 2022. It’s likely the Philies look to lock him in before that, but his $30M+ valuation already won’t make it easy…


AL Cy Young
Blake Snell (and the Rays as a whole) took a lot of people by surprise in 2018. The 25-year-old is running away with this award statistically, posting a 1.90 ERA, .96 WHIP, 21-5 record, and 210+ Ks, all in 175 IP. He’s under team contract again in 2019 before his arbitration years kick in from 2020-2022. Tampa isn’t known for paying pitchers, so keep an eye on Snell in on the trade market in a year or two…

Corey Kluber has arguably one of the best value deals in all of baseball as the Indians locked him into a 5 year, $38.5M contract back in 2015 that includes club options in 2020 & 2021. The 32-year old is set to earn $10.5M, $15M, $15.5M, & $16M over the next 4 seasons, while carrying a valuation of $33.6M…

It can be argued that Chris Sale’s current contract is even a step more team-friendly than Kluber’s as Sale is just 29 years old and will make $12.5M this year and $15M next year before become free agent eligible. Injuries probably take Sale out of the CY Young race in 2018, but he might have a World Series ring to replace that…


NL MVP
The Marlins traded Christian Yelich and his extremely team-friendly contract to the Brewers this summer, and let’s just say he’s responded well to it. The 26-year old is on pace for 200 hits, 35 doubles, 35 homers, 110 RBIs, and a .320/.390/.970 split. He’s hit for the cycle twice and has been a MAJOR reason that the Brewers are likely on their way to the postseason. He’s locked in through 2022, with just $51M to be made in that span…

Javy Baez is a jack of all trades for the Cubs, but in 2018, he’s also their leading hitter. The 25-year old will post 40 doubles 35 HRs, 110+ RBIs, and a near .300/330/.900 split. A BIG step forward from his recent years, and maybe a sign that he’s officially broken out to his potential. Scary news for non-Cubs fans going forward. Contractually, Baez will become arbitration eligible in 2019, so his salaries will be tempered through 2021.

Matt Carpenter had a miserable start to 2018. Matt Carpenter will finish 2018 with 40+ doubles, 35+ homers, 80+ RBIs, and a .900+ OPS. He’s the definition of “value to a team” as a disheveled Cardinals went from rock bottom, to postseason contention In a matter of weeks. Carpenter is set to earn $33M over the next two seasons before becoming free agent eligible.


AL MVP
Mookie Betts needed a big 2018 to make up for what was a subpar 2017 campaign by his standards, and he’s responded brilliantly. The 25-year old will post nearly 50 doubles, 30+ homers, 80+ RBIs, 30 SBs, and a .340/.430/1.000 split. Eye-popping 5-tool production. He’s eligible for arbitration both in 2019, & 2020, but Boston might look to buy those years out with a more long-term contract this winter. His current valuation stands right at $30M.

It took until the middle of February for J.D. Martinez to lock in his 5 year, $110M deal (which can actually be a 2 year, $47.5M deal with options) with the Red Sox, and by all accounts, he’s already out-performed it. He followed up a 26 double, 45 HR, 104 RBI, .303/.376/1.066 2017 with a whopping 36 double, 41 HR, 124 RBI, .328/.400/1.024 2018 thus far. He’s one of the most productive players in all of baseball, and a major reason the Red Sox were that much better in 2018.

Mike Trout missed a bunch of games in 2018 due to injury, and it’s likely the only reason he’s not on top of this list right now. As per usual, Trout was loading up the stat sheets for the Angels, and will still wind up with 25+ doubles, 40 HRs, 80+ RBIs, and a .315/.460/1.1 split. He’s set to earn almost $100M over the next 3 seasons, but it’s very possible the Angels look to tack on a new extension that could approach $40M per year…he’s worth every dollar.


The Rookies
Ronald Acuna (ATL) & Juan Soto (WAS) won’t make much more than the league minimum over the next three seasons, but each appear to be two of the games most elite hitters, at just 20 & 19 years of age respectively. Soto may be pressed into a major role next year should Bryce Harper leave town, while Acuna has a strong core of young studs around him to keep him secure. Both won’t be free agent eligible until 2024.

Miguel Andujar was the piece the Yankees didn’t realize they needed until they got him. The 23-year old has been the most consistent batter in a loaded Bombers lineup, and will finish with 40+ doubles, 25+ HRs, 90 RBIs, and a near .300/330/.850 split. Not bad for a guy who bats 6th most nights…He’s under team control for two more years, meaning near-minimum salaries, and continued huge value for the Yankees.

The Ohtani dual-threat show ended about as quickly as many expected, but his continued success at the plate keeps hope alive that this kid is a really special star in the making. His mix of power, speed, baseball smarts, and clutch hitting (not to mention a legitimate top of the rotation pitcher) will make him must-see-tv once he’s able to return from Tommy John.

Sam Bradford’s Week 3 benching could be more costly than you might assume. While his deal includes a $10M signing bonus, and now fully guaranteed $5M base salary, it also carries $312,500 for every week he’s on the Cardinals’ active 46-man roster. If Arizona drops Sam to 3rd-string, and makes him a healthy scratch going forward, he’ll miss out on $4,062,500. It’s very possible, maybe even likely, that Bradford requests his release in the coming weeks should Josh Rosen perform well enough to remain the starter.


Jimmy Garoppolo’s injury puts the 49ers in a very difficult spot: Do we replace him with a proven starter and continue to try to push up the standings, or live with our current regime and hope for the best? From a trade standpoint, Tyrod Taylor in Cleveland, Robert Griffin in Baltimore, or even recently acquired Teddy Bridgewater with the Saints make a bit of sense. While Matt Moore, E.J. Manuel, Ryan Mallet are currently street free agents with starting experience. From a financial standpoint, Garoppolo stands to forfeit $650,000 in per-game roster bonuses for the remainder of 2018, but will still reel in $41.35M for the season. His $17.2M base salary for 2019, and $15.7M of base salary for 2020 are guaranteed for injury, barring any unfortunate setback to his ACL going forward.


Le’Veon Bell is officially on the trade block, which should be of no surprise to most at this point. But the likelihood that a team will give up an asset to pay Le’Veon Bell what now amounts to $11.9M of his remaining tag, seems bleak. Sure, there may be a “wink-wink” agreement in place, that the team who acquires him now will have already agreed to a long-term extension in March. But because that contract won’t be official, Bell’s reluctance to “max-out” or even be a major contributor on the field in 2018 won’t change, regardless of where his name appear on the roster. It’s most likely, in my opinion, that Bell stays the course in PIttsburgh, returns in mid-November, and plays out a final hurrah with Ben & Brown, before hitting a market that will be ready and willing to dish out the dough. Should a trade be considered though, there are currently 10 teams with enough cap space to fit Bell's remaining salary, notably the Colts, 49ers, Texans, & Jets. 


Earl Thomas’ ability to hold out of everything, then show up on Sunday and dominate the secondary over three weeks has been nothing short of great. Say what you will about his public outcries, and financial demands, but the 29-year-old is still a force on the field. The Seahawks’ nice win in Dallas Sunday, combined with the 49ers QB loss puts Seattle in an interesting spot going forward. What was on track for an awful season now has a chance to be decent - but Thomas is a big part of that recipe. With an expiring contract, and daily demands for money or a trade, something will give here in the next week. Dallas & Kansas City big favorites to land Thomas if it comes down to it.

Based on recent circumstances, it appears that there will be 10 quarterbacks under the age of 25 starting by next week. The average/median age is now under 29 years old, while the average salary for the starting QB is $15.5M (making Tom Brady’s $15M below average). 22 of these QBs were drafted in the first round, 3 in the second, 2 in the third, 2 in the fourth, 1 in the 6th, 1 in the 7th, and 1 was undrafted.

Aaron Rodgers (GB, QB, Knee)
The Packers rewarded Rodgers not only with an almost certainly guaranteed $103M over the next three seasons, but they removed “per-game-active” bonuses that protected them a bit cash-wise in his last contract. The 34-year-old will see $80M by St. Patrick’s day, whether his knee holds up or not.
Contract Details: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-rodgers-3745/

Marcus Mariota (TEN, QB, Elbow)
After a let down of a season in 2017, there were high expectations and hopes for Mariota and the Titans offense in 2018. He took just 36 snaps before being forced from Week 1 with an elbow injury. From a team standpoint any games missed could be a nightmare starts, as the Titans host Houston, go on the road to Jacksonville, and come back home for Philly. Mariota is in year 4 of his rookie contract, with a $20.9M 5th-year option looming in 2019. Tennessee can opt-out of that salary prior to March 13th with no financial ramifications. 
Contract Details: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/marcus-mariota-16726/

Taylor Lewan (TEN, OT, Concussion)
Lewan took a vicious hit on an interception return against Miami. He’ll remain in concussion protocol indefinitely, so his status is fluid at this point. Contractually, Lewan cashed in a 5 year, $80M contract with Tennessee this July, which included $34M guaranteed to start, all through 2019, with the 2020 salary becoming guaranteed that March. It’s a 2 year deal if the Titans need it to be.
Contract Details: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/taylor-lewan-14420/

Delanie Walker (TEN, TE, Ankle)
A fracture in his ankle & foot puts Walker’s season in immediate jeopardy, and a Titans offense in a state of disarray. The 34-year-old penned a 2 year, $17M extension this July that was meant more to increase his 2018 pay than anything. Walker’s deal includes per-game-active bonuses of $15,625 in 2018, $234,375 of which he won’t cash in on now. He will however earn $10.6M in 2018. $2.2M of his 2019 salary becomes fully guaranteed on March 17th.
Contract Details: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tennessee-titans/delanie-walker-3360/

Leonard Fournette (JAC, RB, Hamstring)
Fournette was just getting rolling against the Giants in Week 1 when his hamstring gave way on a redirection move. There’s optimism that he’ll be active in Week 2, but the fear of this lingering certainly exists. He’s entering year two of his rookie contract, and won’t become eligible for an extension until after 2019. 
Contract Details: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/jacksonville-jaguars/leonard-fournette-21745/

Greg Olsen (CAR, TE, Foot)
Olsen signed a 2 year, $17M extension in July which pays him $12.35M in 2018, all now fully guaranteed. While his cash salary drops to $3.4M in 2019, he carries a cap figure of $7.1M, and a dead cap charge of $7.4M. Carolina appears poised to be without their most productive offensive weapon for a few weeks yet again. 
Contract Details: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/carolina-panthers/greg-olsen-1302/

Doug Baldwin (SEA, WR, Knee)
The early word on Baldwin is a slight MCL sprain, which can often mean nothing until he tries to go full speed again in a game setting. He’s entering year 2 of a 4 year extension, with $8.25M of salary fully guaranteed in 2018 & per-game-active bonuses of $31,250 per week, which may be in jeopardy should he need to miss time. Baldwin’s cap charge rises to $13.1M in 2019, with a cash bill of $10M to go with it. When he’s healthy, he’s still one of the better WR values in all of football. 
Contract Details: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/doug-baldwin-8526/

Keanu Neal (ATL, S, ACL)
Neal is officially out for the season after tearing his ACL in a Week 1 matchup against the Eagles. It’s a huge loss for the Falcons’ DB, who was entering year three of his rookie contract, set to become extension eligible next offseason. Atlanta has him under contract through 2019, with a 5th-year option available in 2020. 
Contract Details: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/atlanta-falcons/keanu-neal-18965/

Seantrel Henderson (HOU, OT, Ankle)
It appears Henderson suffered a broken ankle early in the Texans’ Week 1 matchup with the Patriots. This is a dagger for an already thin offensive line, and extremely tough luck for Henderson, who was being given a second-life after fizzling out in Buffalo. He’s on a 1 year, $4M contract but just $2.2M of it fully guaranteed, as he’ll miss out on $1.4M in per-game-active bonuses if he misses the remainder of 2018.
Contract Details: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/seantrel-henderson-14648/

Trae Waynes (MIN, CB, Knee)
The severity of Waynes’ knee injury is still unknown but any time missed would be a big loss for a stout Vikiings’ D. Waynes is entering year four of his rookie contract, and holds a $9M exercised 5th-year option in 2019. Minnesota can still opt-out of this salary if needed before March 13th without any financial ramifications.
Contract Details: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/minnesota-vikings/trae-waynes-16735/

Joe Haden (PIT, CB, Hamstring)
With a cap charge of nearly $12M in 2018, many were surprised Haden stuck with Pittsburgh in 2018. His $10M salary for 2018 is now fully guaranteed, but his $10M owed in 2019 is not ($1.9M dead cap charge).
Contract Details: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/joe-haden-6516/

The Impact, Good & Bad

Aaron Rodgers reset the NFL contracts market. End of conversation. No, he didn’t squeeze a fully guaranteed 5 year contract out of the Packers. No, he didn’t demand a sliding contract that guarantees he’s the highest paid player in the league at any point in time. No, he didn’t base his cash flow on a percent of the projected salary cap each year going forward. He (and by he, obviously we mean his agents) negotiated a deal that tops all other players in all major contractual categories, and he signed it, to remain in Green Bay for his entire career.

Asking Rodgers, a soon to be 35-year old, to be the poster boy for all contracts to come, is silly in its essence. Sure, he’s arguably the best player in the league, at the most important position in the league, but asking the Packers - the “victim” of a contract this big - to be the guinea pigs of a ground-breaking, creative deal that sets the bar for all elite quarterbacks to come, isn’t realistic.

That’s not to say that a more evolved, stronger-guaranteed, ceiling-lifting contract shouldn’t happen.

There’s a youth movement sweeping the league at the QB position, that could become even more prevalent after the 2018 season, with names like Roethlisberger, Manning, Brees, Brady, & Rivers all likely winding down in the near future. From that, it’s likely that one or two will begin to separate themselves to “tier 1”, and as those players look for their sophomore contract, around the ages of 27 or 28, these kind of variables can and should be discussed. No, Jared Goff & Carson Wentz aren’t Aaron Rodgers. And Patrick Mahomes and Mitchell Trubisky aren’t Tom Brady. But it’s possible that in two years, we’re talking about a few of those names as the “best player in football” as the annual lists get put together. It doesn’t take much to get a QB paid these days, but it will take some effort to change the way a QB contract is structured.

Was Aaron Rodgers the right candidate to do this? Of course. But asking him and the Packers to pioneer new concepts at this stage of his career, in a time in football where rosters change weekly, not just yearly, isn’t feasible. No, 34 going on 35 isn’t too old. But Rodgers has dealt with injuries of late, and the risk for injury after injury is greater than ever at this age. And the risk of an injured QB with fully guaranteed salaries that represent 18-20% of your salary cap on an annual basis would be terrifying to any team.

The Contract

While specifics of the contract have not yet been confirmed to us, the reported cash flow can tell us a bit to start with.

1. Including the $42M he was owed from his previous deal, Rodgers is looking at $176M over 6 years.
2. Of that, $57.5M (43%) comes by way of the signing bonus, which means that nearly half of this deal will be paid out in the first two years.
3. The deal includes $103M over the first three years, which averages out to $34.3M per year, a huge number in comparison to any other NFL contract.
4. The deal includes $103M in practical guarantees, which means that all of the guarantees fall over the first three years of the deal. This is a bit of a disappointment, as many expected Rodgers’ guaranteed money to pour into the fourth year - something that never happens.
5. Rodgers’ cash flow in the final three years of this deal breaks out as $22M, $25.5M, & $25.5M, which averages out to $24.3M a year, and brings us right back to his previous contract’s problems.
6. The contract does NOT include per-game-active roster bonuses per a report, something many of the Packers have been forced to include in their contract. This is a win for Rodgers, especially with age + injury history.
7. The deal contains $23M of dead cap in 2021 ($10.5M savings), and $11.5M in 2022 ($25.5M savings). It’s possible for the Packers to walk away If necessary in either of these years.
8. Rodger’s 2018 cap hit barely changes. Often with extensions, the team is rewarded with a lower cap figure in the current year. This does not appear to be the case for the Packers. His near $21M cap figure represents 11.5% of their adjusted salary cap.
9. Assuming a cap of $187M in 2019, Rodgers stands to account for nearly 15% of their cap.
10. Assuming he plays out this contract in full, Rodgers will have earned approximately $313M over his career on the field.

Impacted Market Values

Russell Wilson, SEA - $29.9M
Wilson’s current deal expires after the 2019 season, meaning another Top 5 productive year from him in 2018 puts him on high-level warning for an extension. The Seahawks are young and cheap around him currently, meaning Wilson can REALLY push for a monster contract should he feel the need to. This is one to watch in terms of pay, structure, and longevity, as Russell turns just 30 years old this November.

Jared Goff, LAR - $25.1M
He’ll become extension eligible after 2018, but it’s probably not in the cards just yet. Rams are getting paid around him left and right, with Aaron Donald’s eye-popping deal still to come. Goff has a chance to REALLY thrive in this fun spread offense, with Gurley as the anchor, but he might have to wait a bit to see his sophomore contract come to fruition. The good news? He’s only 23.

Carson Wentz, PHI - $28.4M
Nick Foles got to lift the trophy, but Wentz did most of the heavy lifting for the Eagles in 2017, including a passer rating north of 101. If he can become a bit more efficient in his passing, and hang out to the ball in the pocket a little more consistently (23 fumbles in 2 years), he’ll be a lock to reset the QB market in the next 24 months. He’s got the best chance to becomes the “guinea pig” for new contract structures in my opinion.

With Odell Beckham Jr. now locked in with the Giants for at least a few more years, it’s high time we take dive into what has become a truly remarkable WR draft class from 2014. While many of the 15 receivers drafted in the first three rounds that year have since left the team that selected him (for one reason or another), nearly all have found their way to a nice sophomore contract in the NFL.

Related: 2014 NFL Draft Tracker

Sammy Watkins (#4, BUF -> LAR -> KC)

In his first two seasons with the Bills, Watkins was averaging  62 catches, 1,000 yards, and 8 TDs. But foot injuries kept him off the field regularly from there out, and Buffalo not only declined his 5th-year option for 2017, they traded him late that summer to the Rams. Watkins became a much less relied about weapon in LA’s spread offense, but he still found his way to nearly 600 yards & 8 TDs. He hit the free agent market as a bit of a dark horse, after a limited role in 2017, but was clearly the main target of the Kansas City Chiefs, who made a splash very early by handing Watkins a 3 year, $48M contract, with $30M guaranteed at signing. 

Earnings to Date: $19.9M ($30M more fully guaranteed)

Mike Evans(#7, TB)

Statistically speaking, Evans has produced leaps & bounds better than Watkins, averaging 77 grabs, nearly 1,200 yards and 9 TDs per year in his first four seasons with the Bucs. Before yesterday, his 5 year, $82.5M extension in Tampa was the cream of the crop among receivers, as more than $55M of it is guaranteed ($38M guaranteed at signing). Structurally speaking, Evans is only “locked in” through 2019 though, as the dead cap drops to zero thereafter. 

Earnings to Date: $14.6M ($38.2M more fully guaranteed)

Odell Beckham, Jr. (#12, NYG)

Before his injury early in 2017, OBJ was on his way to one of the best starts to a career by a WR in history. He averaged 96 catches, nearly 1,400 yards and and 12 TDs over his first three seasons with the Giants. So you can understand why numbers like $20M+ and $100M total were being thrown around with this recent contract. He “settles” for $90M over 5 years, with a total of $65M of it guaranteed ($41M guaranteed at signing). Without having full details yet, it’s safe to assume OBJ is locked in fully guaranteed through 2019, with a practical guarantee built in for 2020. 

Earnings to Date: $10.4M ($41M more fully guaranteed)

Brandin Cooks (#20, NO->NE->LAR)

Cooks had a slow start to his career in year one, but found his stride from there, averaging 80 catches, 1,150 yards, and 9 TDs over the next two years with the Saints, who rewarded his efforts with a trade to New England. His numbers remained nearly identical with the Patriots, who rewarded his efforts with a trade to the Rams. The Rams chose to replace exiting Sammy Watkins with Cooks, affording him a 5 year, $81M contract, $49M of which is practically guaranteed, $20.5M of which is fully guaranteed now. He’s financially secure through 2020.

Earnings to Date:  $8.5M ($50.5M more practically guaranteed)

Kelvin Benjamin (#28, CAR->BUF)

Benjamin came out of the gate fast in Cam Newton’s offense, securing 73 grabs for over 1,000 yards and 9 TDs in his rookie campaign. But there’s been a gradual decline since, and Benjamin was traded to the Bills last October as a result. He’s the clear #1 in Buffalo for 2018, so it stands to reason he can find a bit of a rejuvenation as he nears free agency in March of 2019.

Earnings to Date: $7.6M ($8.459M guaranteed in 2018)

Marqise Lee (#39, JAC)

Lee struggled to find consistency with a Jacksonville offense that just wasn’t very good across 2014-2015. But as the team improved around him, so did Lee’s ability to produce. Marqise turned in 60 catches, 800 yards, and 3 TDs on average over his past two seasons with the Jaguars, who rewarded him with a 4 year, $34M contract this past March. The deal comes with $16.5M fully guaranteed at signing, securing him for around $18M through 2019. 

Earnings to Date: $5.1M ($17.9M practically guaranteed through 2019)

Jordan Matthews (#42, PHI->BUF->NE)

With 75 catches, 925 yards and 8 TDs averaged over this first two seasons, Matthews was on track to be one of the better WRs in this class out of the gate. Injuries held back his 2016 season a bit, and Matthews was traded to the Bills the next summer, where he caught just 25 balls over 2017. The Patriots took a flyer on Matthews this summer, but cut ties with him a few weeks ago after injuries set in yet again. 

Earnings to Date: $5.3M

Paul Richardson (#45, SEA-WAS)

After three seasons of minimal targets & an injury to boot, Richardson found his stride in Seattle at the perfect time - his contract year. He reeled in 44 catches for 700 yards and 6 TDs last year with the Seahawks, catapulting him to a 5 year, $40M free agent contract from the Redskins this March. While $12.5M of that is guaranteed at signing, he’s likely to see at least $17.5M over the next two seasons in Washington. 

Earnings to Date: $4.7M ($17.5M more practically guaranteed)

Davante Adams (#53, GB)

Adams was a bit of an outlier to begin his career seeing just 66 targets in his rookie season. But Aaron Rodgers began to take notice shortly thereafter, vaulting Adams to 75 catches, 925 yards, and 11 TDs averaged over his past two years in Green Bay. The Packers locked in Adams on a 4 year $58M extension last winter (smartly), including $30M guaranteed ($24M fully guaranteed at signing). With Jordy Nelson now in Oakland, and Randall Cobb’s health always a concern, Adams , who’s set to make $14M combined over the next two seasons, is the clear #1 target in Green Bay, and likely a heck of a value at that. 

Earnings to Date: $22.2M ($14M more practically guaranteed)

Cody Latimer (#56, DEN-> NYG)

Latimer was targeted a total of 61 times over 4 seasons in Denver, due in large put to his inability to stay on the field. He showed a small flash of adequacy last season with 20 catches and 2 TDs, but the Giants likely brought him in a his current 1 year $2.5M contract purely as a depth need, on a guy who should have a higher ceiling. It’s a big year for Latimier, who has a chance to be the #3 WR in New York.

Earnings to Date: $3.7M ($2.5M fully guaranteed in 2018)

Allen Robinson (#61, JAC->CHI)

Injuries bookended his four years with the Jaguars, but his phenomenal 2015 campaign (80 catches, 1,400 yards, 14 TDs) can’t be overlooked. Robinson his the ability to be a legitimate WR1 with the right system, and the Bears are looking for him to be just that for the next few years. Chicago locked in A-Rob on a 3 year $42M contract this March, with $18M fully guaranteed at signing, and $28M practically guaranteed through 2019. 

Earnings to Date: $3.6M ($28M more practically guaranteed)

Jarvis Landry (#63, MIA-> CLE)

The 12th WR drafted in 2014 averaged 100 catches, 1,010 yards, and 6 TDs per year in his four seasons with the Dolphins. Miami “rewarded” him with a $16M franchise tag, then traded him to the Browns, who showed him a lot more love with a 5 year $75M extension, including $34M guaranteed at signing. Structurally speaking, Landry is financially locked in through 2019. He might be the best receiver not named Odell (whom he played college ball with at LSU) in this class. 

Earnings to Date: $3.6M ($34M more fully guaranteed)

Josh Huff (#86, PHI-> TB->NO)

Huff was given a decent shot to shine in 2015, but fell out of favor in Philly thereafter. He was released mid season in 2016, and has bounced around with Tampa & New Orleans since. He'll miss the first two game of 2018 per a substance abuse suspension, and his career is in limbo.

Earnings to Date: $2.2M

Donte Moncrief (#90, IND->JAC)

Moncrief doesn't have the big numbers across the board that many of these players listed have, but he's had a knack for finding the endzone with consistency. He signed a 1 year $9.6M "prove-it" deal with Jacksonville, and a season-ending injury to Marqise Lee should give him a chance to gain targets.

Earnings to Date: $3.9M ($9.6M more fully guaranteed)

John Brown (#91, ARI->BAL)

Brown peeked in 2015 when he reeled in 65 catches for 1,000 yards and 7 TDs. He's yet to reproduce those numbers since, but will have a real shot in Baltimore next to Michael Crabtree in 2018. The Ravens guaranteed $4M of his $5M contract this season.

Earnings to Date: $4M ($4M more fully guaranteed)

Odell Beckham Jr. put a much needed jolt into the NFL contract world when he penned a 5 year, $90 million new-money extension to remain with the New York Giants for the foreseeable future. We’ll take a quick look at the details that are known, assessing how everything ranks out across the board.

The Total Contract Value
Related: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/contract-value/wide-receiver/

There are plenty of ways to report an NFL contract value, and we’ll try to attack them all here. For starters, the contract as a whole is 6 years, $98.459M, as it includes the 1 year, $8.459M salary Beckham was already signed to for 2018. Therefore, from a new-money, and new-years standpoint, we’re looking at a 5 year, $90M extension, that has a chance to become $95M should he hit escalators in 2022 & 2023 ($2.5M each, based on receptions, yards, and touchdowns). 

The Average Annual Value

Related: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/wide-receiver/

Knowing what we know now, the new-money AAV for Beckham Jr. comes in at $18M (90/5), good enough to eclipse Antonio Brown (PIT, $17M) by $1M. However, with a reported, $52.7M to be earned over the first three years (2018-2020), the front of this deal rings in at a $17.5M average, meaning it’s more heavily backloaded in the last 3 seasons.

Guaranteed, Now & Later

Related: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/guaranteed/wide-receiver/

Again, we’ve got a few scenarios to deal with here, fully guaranteed at signing ($41M), total available guarantees ($65M), and “new” guarantees. It’s been reported that the $65M in total guarantees includes his previous $8.459M salary, bringing that figure down to $56.5M. We don’t yet know if the $41M in upfront guarantees includes this figure, but it stands to reason that it might.

The $56.5M in new-money total guarantees ranks first among active WRs (Mike Evans, $55M), and 5th all-time among non-QBs. For now, his $41M fully guaranteed at signing also ranks first.

Cap & Cash Flow

Related: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-york-giants/odell-beckham-jr-14421/ 

Details still need to come out, but we know Beckham Jr. will reel in at least $21.459M in 2018, thanks to a $20M signing bonus. His base salary drops down to $1.459M in 2018, leaving a cap figure of $5.459M for the upcoming season, a savings of $3M for the Giants. He’ll then make a little over $31M over the next two seasons based on initial reports. 

Impact Going Forward

A strong year from Julio Jones puts these numbers on notice after 2018, while Michael Thomas will also be looking to cash in over the next 18 months in New Orleans. Tyreek Hill (KC), Golden Tate (DET), and A.J. Green (CIN) are other contract candidates at the WR position. Will any of these players eclipse the $20M per year mark OBJ was hoping for?

Getting More Guaranteed

Of the 14 notable multi-year QB contracts signed this offseason, 8 of them contain at least 50% fully guaranteed at signing, 11 with at least 40%. Matt Ryan’s $94.5M guaranteed at signing (63%) resets this market, while Kirk Cousins’ $84M over three years is a huge step in the right direction, and possibly motivation for a few more quarterbacks to consider hitting the free agent market in the near future. Aaron Rodgers’ negotiations are extremely important to continue, and extend, the push for more (or total) guarantees.

Related: Top Guaranteed Dollars & Percentages among QBs

 

Getting Paid, on Average

There are 47 players in the NFL with an average salary of at least $15M. Of them 22 are quarterbacks. 16 of these QBs are north of $20M, and that number will continue to grow over the next 18 months. Matt Ryans’ $30M becomes the new bar for elite QB deals going forward.

Related: Top Average Paid QB Rankings

 

Getting Real About the Contracts

Until further notice, as stated here many times before, a long-term NFL contract isn’t as long, or expensive as it initially looks. This is true even for most of the big QB contracts that have been signed of late.

Jimmy Garoppolo (SF), 5 years, $137,500,000
With ample cap space in 2018, the Niners bypassed the franchise tag for Jimmy in early February by locking him into a 5 year contract that includes almost $43M in 2018 alone. In doing this, they’ve turned a 5-year contract in to what could realistically be a 1-year deal, as San Francisco can release Garoppolo in March at a $13.1M dead cap cost, clearing $6.9M in space. Every year after 2018 will be a “team option” essentially, as guaranteed salary kicks in on a rolling basis, and dead cap becomes very manageable.

 

A.J. McCarron (BUF), 2 years, $10,000,000
There are some who believe McCarron might never take a snap for Buffalo, whether that means an outright release prior to Week 1, or a year-long backup role to Josh Allen & possibly Nathan Peterman as well. Regardless, he’s locked into $5M, all in 2018. Should the Bills part ways after 2018 (likely), they’ll take on a $2M dead cap hit, clearing $5M of space.

 

Tom Brady (NE), 2 years, $30,000,000
Brady has a chance to reel in $20M in 2018 if he’s active for all 16 weeks, and hits Top 5 passing numbers as he’s done year after year. After 2018 is a different story. Brady has $15M cash to be earned in 2019 as it currently stands, but he’ll be 42, and the Patriots may look and feel a whole lot different by then. His retirement or release would leave behind $12M of dead cap clearing $15M of space for New England.

 

Blake Bortles (JAX), 3 years, $54,000,000
The Bortles/Jaguars marriage gets another year on life support, thanks to a late February extension (that surprised more than a few). Bortles gets $20M in 2018, & another $16M is slated for 2019, though Jacksonville has a “decent” out after the 2018 season. Should they move on from Bortles after this year, the Jags will incur a $16.5M dead cap hit, clearing $4.5M, but $6.5M of that dead cap does come with offsets, and could be reduced should he sign elsewhere.

 

Case Keenum (DEN), 2 years, $36,000,000
Keenum steps into a team that hasn’t been able to pick up the pieces since Peyton Manning’s retirement. He gets $18M in 2018, after which he can be moved on from for a $10M dead cap charge ($7M of which comes from guaranteed salary that includes offsets). Denver would clear at least $11M should they release Keenum after 2018.

 

Sam Bradford (ARI), 2 years, $40,000,000
A healthy Sam Bradford will earn $20M in 2018, after which his $7.5M salary for 2019 fully guarantees in early March, and a $10M roster bonus just a few days later. In other words, Bradford’s on a 1-year deal here, with a chance to earn $20M, and a guarantee of seeing $15M.

 

Drew Brees (NO), 2 years, $50,000,000
Brees signed this deal at the start of free agency, and it all but ensures he’s under contract through the 2019 season, his age 40 year. He’ll see $27M in 2018, and another $23M in 2019. Should the wheels fall off in 2018, the Saints could hypothetically move on from Brees, but they’ll take on $21M of dead cap (likely split into $10.5M in 2019 & 2020 each). Doing so would clear $23M in 2019 cap space, but it’s probably still not likely.

 

Alex Smith (WAS), 4 years, $94,000,000
Cousins out, Smith in. Washington trade a starting DB (Kendall Fuller) & a 3rd round pick just to acquire the rights to Smith last winter, then quickly locked him at a practical $71M over 3 years ($55M through 2). His $16M salary for 2020 becomes fully guaranteed next March. The D.C. squad can move on from Smith after 2020 for a $13.5M dead cap charge creating at least $10.9M of cap space ($19M if designated a post-June 1st release).

 

Matt Ryan (ATL), 5 years, $150,000,000
About as real deal as a contract can get. Ryan gets $74M over the first two years, and $117M through four. Atlanta can bow out of this deal after the 2021 season for a $13.3M dead cap hit, clearing $21.75M of space at that time. Most of Ryan’s contract figures are the current floor for Aaron Rodgers as he works through his negotiations.

 

Kirk Cousins (MIN), 3 years, $84,000,000
Fully Guaranteed, and a chance to cash in again at age 32. Cousins had a goal in mind this free agent season and scored a deal that carries just a $3M signing bonus, $1.5M in combined workout bonuses, and nearly $80M in annual base salaries. He’ll make a nice even $26M, $28M, & $30M over the duration of this deal.

 

Getting Younger by the Minute

While it’s not a significant drop off, the starting QB class for 2017 was nearly 30 years old on average. The projected class for 2018 is right at 29 years old, and could dip under should Baker Mayfield & Josh Rosen find their way into their respective starting lineups (or even RG3). With players like Brady, Brees, Flacco, Manning, Rivers, & Roethlisberger likely eyeing the finish lines of their careers, the league could have a vast majority of its starting QBs under the age of 30 within the next two seasons.

Related: Active QB Contract Breakdowns

 

Spending by Team

Getting a Fresh Start

Two trades (Smith, Taylor), three free agent signings (Cousins, Bradford, Keenum), and five players drafted early over the past two seasons now lead to plenty of new blood across the league. On average, a team’s starting quarterback for 2018 is accouting for about 8.3% of their adjusted salary cap, up a point from 2017 (excluding Luck & Tannehill, who return from injury).

Related: Top QB Cap Hits for 2018