Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Updated: 4/3/23 @ 2:45pm

More “Super Tax” Penalties

What Is It:

There are going to be even more penalties on teams that exceed what we’re going to now call the “Super Tax”, which is the second tax apron at $17.5 million above the luxury tax line. These penalties include: not being able to send cash out in trade, restrictions on when they can trade first-round picks, not being able to sign players on the buyout market and not being able to take on salary in trades.

Analysis:

The league is doing what they can to curb the spending of the most expensive teams. We already covered some of the potentially unintended consequences, but here’s another set to consider.

If you can’t add salary via a trade, will we see a $20 million player given a $30 million, simply so a team could trade him for a $25 million player? That’s one way to start working around it. It’s not necessarily a bad thing, because the player benefits. But it could be a workaround for teams. And NBA teams are really good at figuring out workarounds with the cap and CBA.

Players are allowed to invest in NBA and WNBA teams, as well as partner with gambling and cannabis companies.

What Is It:

This one is pretty straight forward. Or, it seems to be, at least. Players will be able to become more partners with teams, as opposed to contract employees. And players will be able to branch out and become partners with business that were previously prohibited.

Analysis:

Investing in the NBA and WNBA is a great idea. If you’re invested, you’re likely to do more to grow your product and your team. That should be a rising tide lifts all boats scenario.

Partnering with gambling companies is a little more of a slippery slope. If it’s simply “Hey! I’m Player X! Do your betting with Company Y!” then it’s fine. If it becomes “Hey! I’m Player X! Bet on me to score over 20 points tonight!” then things could get really messy. When we have full details, it seems likely we’ll find out it’s more like the former than the latter.

We didn’t touch on it previously, so we will here…marijuana is no longer a prohibited substance in the new CBA. With where things are headed, as more and more of the country legalizes marijuana use, that makes sense. And if it’s not a prohibited substance, why can’t a player endorse it? This is common sense in action.

Revenue from licensing will be added to the Basketball Related Income (BRI) calculation

What Is It:

Previously, any money the NBA itself or NBA teams made from licensing agreements went directly to the owners. The players will now get a share of that, through the BRI process.

Analysis:

This seems like a no-brainer. The NBA and its teams have no value without the players. If you’re going to license your logos or team names to be used somewhere, the players should get a cut of that.

Second Round Pick Signing Exception

What Is It:

Teams will now have an exception to sign their second-round picks. In today’s world, if a team wants to sign a player selected in the second round to more than the two-year, minimum salary deal allowed by the minimum exception, they have limited ways to do so. They can give the player come of their cap space, if they are a room team. Or they can carve out a portion of their Mid-Level Exception to sign the player. Now, they’ll be able to sign their second-round picks to deals without having to give up cap space or part of their MLE.

Analysis:

This is a good change. As much as we’ve all enjoyed picking on the Los Angeles Lakers for bungling this time and time again, this will help everyone. Teams are helped because they can use their full MLE, or full cap space, to sign veterans, while also still signing second-round players. Veteran players don’t lose out on a chunk of money, because teams had to conserve that space to sign second-round players.

Unanswered questions: Is this one exception per team per season? Is this allowable for any second-round pick, without restrictions? Can you still use cap space or a different exception to give the player even more salary or a longer deal? Those will all get answered when we have the actual CBA.

10% Cap Smoothing

What Is It:

In order to avoid another cap spike like in 2016, when the cap went from $70 million to $94.1 million, the NBA will smooth those increases. This is likely to matter most in 2025, when the first season with the new media rights deals will begin.

Analysis:

This is a good thing. Now that the NBA and NBPA have a better working relationship, they can trust that no one will get cheated out of money. A cap spike ends up disproportionately impacting that one year’s free agent class. They benefit greatly, while following free agent classes are often less with less money, because everyone capped out the year prior.

Smoothing in this increase will allow for fewer massive contracts that immediately turn sour. And it will spread the wealth amongst several free agent classes.

Elimination of Designated Player Roster Restrictions

What Is It:

Under the current CBA, teams are limited in how many Designated Players they can have on their roster at a given time. Currently, teams are limited to two Designated Rookie Scale Extension players and two Designated Veteran Players. In addition, team could only have one Designated Player that they acquired via trade. These restrictions are being eliminated moving forward.

Analysis:

As with a lot of these changes, things are being set up to allow teams greater flexibility in retaining their own players. This change is another good one. Simply because you hit on three, or more, draft picks over a period of time, you shouldn’t be punished for wanting to re-sign all of them for the most you can. This removes that, while still putting in the “Super Tax” caveats that restrict team building, should your team get too expensive.

MLE and Room Exception to increase in size

What Is It:

The Non-Taxpayer MLE is expected to increase by 7.5%, while the Room Exception is expected to increase by 30%. It’s expected that these increases are on top of how much these exceptions will have increased in correlation with how much the cap increases.

Analysis:

This is another good change, as these exceptions will become even more valuable tools for those non-taxpaying teams. One unanswered question: Is this a one-time releveling, and then things will go back to the standard increase with as the cap increases? Or will this be phased in over a period of time?

Teams will be able to use signing exceptions as trade exceptions

What Is It:

In today’s world, a team can only use their MLE to sign a player to a contract. The only way to acquire a player via trade is to match salary in a deal, or to acquire them using a Traded Player Exception (TPE)

Analysis:

This is also a good change. It allows teams increased flexibility in how they can build their rosters. Anything that allows for more ways to build a roster is for the better.

Luxury Tax bands/brackets will increase and expand

What Is It:

Currently, the luxury tax bands run from $1 dollar over the tax to $5 million then to $10 million to $15 million and $20 million. Those bands were set at a time when the salary cap was roughly $58 million. The cap and tax lines have doubled, but the bands have remained the same.

Analysis:

Another good change. Adding $5 million to your team salary was essentially one signing. That was often true with $10 million. That could mean jumping one or two bands by adding just one player. The penalties for adding even that relatively small amount of salary were out of balance with the actual impact. This change was long overdue, as the bands were outdated and needed changing. As with a lot of other items, we don’t yet have the details to what the new bands will be, and how they will be phased in over a period of time.

This is also a nice balancer for those “Super Tax” teams. They’re already restricted as to how they can build their roster, hitting them with even more of a tax penalty feels overly punitive at this point.

Players who attend Draft Combine must undergo physicals that will be shared with teams

What Is It:

Currently, most top draft prospects attend the NBA Draft Combine. Very few of them work out at the combine, but are instead there to interview with teams. Some also will do physicals and medical reviews, but that’s something a player can opt out of, and many do. Now, players who attend the combine will be required to do a physical. Those results then will be shared with teams, based on that player’s draft projection.

Analysis:

This is good, but not good enough. Drafting a player in the NBA is a hope that you are entering into a relationship that will last for more than a decade. For many teams, a “bad” medical or no medical at all, will take that player off that team’s draft board. There’s simply too much risk involved. This is helping to change that

Why is this change not good enough? For one, whose projections are being used with which teams to share physical information with? Why not just share it with all teams? This is especially true considering teams can trade up.

Another concern is that this could simply cause players to skip the combine entirely. They can then control the draft process, at least as much as possible, by only meeting with, working out for and having a physical done by certain teams.

Restricted Free Agency changes

What Is It:

Qualifying offers will reportedly increase by 10%, while the time a team has to match an offer sheet will decrease from 48 hours to 24 hours.

Analysis:

This is another good set of changes. The 10% increase in qualifying offer amount could make that enticing enough that a player who doesn’t like his contract proposal from his incumbent team might opt for the one-year deal via the qualifying offer. This is opposed to simply sitting in restricted free agency, while money and jobs dry up around the league. It gives players another reasonable option to control their future contracts.

The decrease from 48 hours to 24 hours is just common sense. With today’s technology, teams can be notified of a signed offer sheet within moments of it being signed. And teams generally know if they are going to match or not, long before any offer sheet comes.

Non-max Rookie Scale Extensions allowed to have fifth season

What Is It:

Analysis:

Original Post: 4/1/23 @ 10:30am

The NBA and NBPA have reached an agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement. This agreement came after both sides agreed to push back their mutual opt-out deadline several times. In the end, in the early morning hours of April 1, the NBA will continue a long run of labor peace.

The agreement will carry through the next seven seasons, from 2023-24 through 2029-30. Once again, both sides hold mutual opt-outs after the sixth season of the agreement.

As it’s still early in the process, details on the new agreement are still being filtered out. Here’s what we know so far:

In-Season Tournament

What it is: 

Adam Silver’s long-wanted in-season tournament will be added, possibly as soon as next season. All NBA teams will take part in the tournament, with pool play and early-round games in the season’s opening months doubling as regular season games. The final four teams will meet at a neutral site to crown the champion.

Analysis: 

The in-season tournament was coming, like it or not. Teams will initially prioritize it as much as they do any regular season game. Over time, it’s likely that winning the tournament will become a thing. If you put a trophy in front of competitive people, they want to win it.

Oh, and a $500,000 per player prize is pretty good too. No, the max players won’t really care all that much. But for the guys on a minimum deal, that’s a pretty nice bonus. That’ll make the stars want to win it, as much as claiming the trophy or the prize money for themselves.

Load Management Provisions

What it is: 

In order for players to eligible for major postseason awards, such as MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and All-NBA, they will have to appear in at least 65 games. There are to-be-announced conditions where a player could miss more than 17 games and remain eligible for awards.

Analysis:

A 65-game threshold is roughly 79% of the schedule. That feels like a reasonable and, more importantly, attainable marker. With most teams now playing between 12 and 16 back-to-back games per season, this still allows for resting players on the nights they are most likely to miss anyway.

Does this solve everything? No. But given that players want the individual recognition of the awards (and for some, the financial benefits that come along with it!), and teams promote players for individual awards, this should get the main guys on the court at least a little more often.

A potential downside is that teams could start a player, and then simply sub that player out at the earliest opportunity. That makes a farce of the entire thing and it’s something the NBA will not want to see.

Standard Veteran Extension Increase

What is it: 

The standard Veteran Extension salary increase will rise from 120% to 140%.

Analysis: 

Let’s use Jaylen Brown as an example here, since he’s prominently in the news. Under the current CBA, Brown would be eligible for a 120% raise. That would make his total extension in the range of four years and $170.5 million.

With a 140% raise, Brown would go up to his maximum salary amount. That would cap him at about $192.2 million over that same four-year period. That’s a fairly impactful amount, even if Brown would probably prefer to see if he makes All-NBA this season or next season and qualifies for the Super Max, which could pay him in excess of $290 million over five years, or $224 million over the same four-year period.

So, for a currently near-max player like Brown, this at least gets him in the territory of what he could sign for in free agency. For a not near-max, breakout player like Domantas Sabonis or Kyle Kuzma, the increase probably still isn’t enough to get them to bite.

This feels like a good fix, but more for vets who are established as non-max players without a ton of contractual upside. They’ll probably get a little more money now.

For the true stars of the NBA, this didn’t go far enough. There’s no real reason to keep a team and player from extending for their max salary when they are eligible to do so. A better solution might have been to say you can offer the current 120% (or maybe even bumped that slightly) or you can offer the player the max. That still leaves agency for both the teams and players to make a real decision.

Second Luxury Tax Apron

What is it: 

The new CBA will see the addition of a second luxury tax apron, set at $17.5 million above the luxury tax line. This new apron will make it so that the league’s most expensive teams will no longer have access to the Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception. That exception is currently available to any teams that are above the current tax apron (roughly $6 million above the tax line), unless they are hard capped.

Analysis: 

This feels like a bit of a band-aid, but an impactful band-aid nonetheless. It’s not a true “upper spending limit”, which several teams and players were adamantly against. Most seasons, somewhere between four and six teams will be impacted. Since spending is generally not a worry for those teams, that means somewhere between four and six players will likely have to sign a minimum deal, as opposed to the Taxpayer MLE, that will be over $7 million next season.

Those very expensive teams will still be able to add salary via minimum deals and via trades. They’ll have to get a bit more creative in how they build their rosters. It will help keep them from outspending some opponents by hundreds of millions in total salary plus tax penalties.

But some players are going to lose out here. That doesn’t seem great. This is one we’ll have to measure for a few years to get a real understanding of how this impacted teams and players.

Third Two-Way Roster Spot

What is it: 

This one is pretty simple, as there will be a third Two-Way spot added to rosters. Teams can currently sign two players to Two-Way deals for a length of up to two seasons.

Analysis: 

The NBA wants the G League to be a viable minor league system. This increases that, while still giving players flexibility and not locking them into minor league contracts.

By tying up to three players to the NBA club, the Affiliate team is strengthened and that’s good for the overall health of the G League. It’s also a great development opportunity for players and teams. Several players have emerged from Two-Way contracts to become regular NBA rotation players. This includes Jose Alvarado, Alex Caruso, Lu Dort and Austin Reaves.

One downside to this is that it doesn’t appear NBA roster sizes are increasing in the offseason. Teams are allowed to bring up to 20 players to training camp. With 15 players on standard contracts and now up to three on Two-Way deals, that leaves openings for only two camp signings.

In addition, we’ve seen some teams choose to leave roster spots open more often, and for longer periods of time, because they can backfill with their Two-Way players. This could have the unintended (or perhaps intended?) consequence of some players missing out on standard contracts to fill out NBA benches.

No Change To “One-and-Done” Rules

What it is: 

US-born players will still need to be a year removed from their high school graduation in order to be draft eligible. That means players will still need to attend college, or sign with a non-NBA professional team, before entering the NBA Draft.

Analysis: 

Teams didn’t want to have to scout high school players again. That would have added a major increase to staffs and workload across the league. And it would have meant scouting many, many players who have no shot at the NBA.

Players didn’t really want the one-and-done rule changes, because for each extra player you let in the league, that’s one less spot for a veteran. The NBPA was adamant about protecting veteran players and their roster spots. Not allowing players to come in from high school helps to accomplish that.

For the players coming out of high school, the advent of NIL deals being available to them, allows them to begin earning money right away. This is in addition to professional opportunities with the G League Ignite, Overtime Elite and overseas, which have become paths to the NBA for several players in recent years.

What We Don’t Know Yet

There are a lot of items we don’t have details on yet. This includes:

• Cap smoothing: Will this happen or not? If not, we’ll see another major cap spike when the new media rights deals hit. That’s something both sides were initially eager to avoid.
• Luxury tax bands: The luxury tax bands, and the related penalties, only rise by $5 million per band now. Were those bands enlarged at all?
• Extend-and-trade rules: With the standard Veteran Extension rules being adjusted, were the very restrictive extend-and-trade rules changed at all?
• Trade requests/demands: Was anything done to prevent trade requests or demands? There was a lot of blustering about this being a problem, but was anything done to try to fix it?
• Changes to rosters: Are there more changes beyond the addition of the third Two-Way spot?
• Expansion details: Was anything changed as far as expansion goes? It seems like expansion is inevitable, perhaps in the life of this new CBA.

(This post will be updated as more details are known about the new CBA.)

Corey Conners earns his first PGA Tour victory of the season and earns himself $1.6 million for the 2023 season. This brings his 2023 on-course earnings to $2.68 million and brings his career on-course earnings to just north of $15.7 million.

Valero Texas Open Top 5

1. Corey Conners: $1,602,000

2. Sam Stevens: $970,100

T3. Matt Kuchar, Sam Ryder: $525,100

5. Patrick Rodgers: $364,900

Full Results

2023 Earnings Leaders Update

1. Scottie Scheffler: $11,631,495

2. Jon Rahm: $10,048,541

3. Max Homa: $7,709,412

4. Kurt Kitayama: $5,693,388

5. Rory McIlroy: $5,333,286

Full List

Brooks Koepka wins the third LIV Golf event of 2023 at Orlando earning himself $4 million, plus $375,000 for the team bonus. Koepka's career LIV Golf earnings (individual + team) is now at $9.99 million.

Orlando Top 5

1. Brooks Koepka: $4,000,000

2. Sebastián Muñoz: $2,125,000

T3. Patrick Reed, Dean Burmester: $1,275,000

T5. Mito Pereira, Matthew Wolff: $887,500

Full Results

Team Earnings

1. Torque GC (Niemann, Sebastian Munoz, Mito Pereira, David Puig): $3,000,000 ($750,00 each)

2. Smash GC (Brooks Koepka, Matthew Wolff, Jason Kokrak, Chase Koepka): $1,500,000 ($375,000 each)

3. 4 Aces GC (Dustin Johnson, Peter Uihlein, Patrick Reed, Pat Perez): $500,000 ($125,000 each)

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Opening Day Cash Payrolls

From a straight cash perspective the Mets, Yankees, & Padres (all teams you’ve probably heard a lot about this winter) lead the league entering the 2023 season.

The Mets bring an historic $334M guaranteed cash payroll into the year, $60M more than the MLB leading Dodgers accounted for in 2022.

On the side of the spectrum the Oakland A’s project to carry a $55M cash payroll into the year, including 18 players on near minimum pre-arbitration salaries. The Orioles (est. $66M), and Pirates (est. $72M) round out the bottom of the payroll list for now.

2023 MLB Cash Payrolls

Opening Day Tax Payrolls

Obviously nothing is complete until the season is complete, but an opening day span across the league shows us a range of CBT payrolls like we’ve never seen before. Tax payrolls are based on the average salary of a contract, not necessarily the amount of cash a team is spending this season. The MLB tax threshold for the 2023 season is $233,000,000.

The Mets lead the way at a projected $376M. If this holds, they’ll owe a whopping $103M bill, bringing their total expenditures to nearly $480M for the season.

7 teams project to be over the threshold to start the year: Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres, Blue Jays, Dodgers, & Braves.

On the low side, 4 teams open the season projecting to account for less than $100M of tax salary: Athletics, Orioles, Pirates, & Reds. 

Opening Day Tax Payroll Projections

Top 2023 Salaries

We enter the 2023 season with 52 players set to earn at least $20M for the upcoming year. 16 of those will earn $30M+, while 3 (Scherzer, Verlander, Judge) will reel in $40M over the next 6 months.

Top Salary Per Position
Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer (NYM) / Justin Verlander (NYM): $43,333,333
Relief PItcher: Edwin Diaz (NYM): $19,650,000
Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (PHI): $23,875,000
1st Baseman: Paul Goldschmidt (STL): $26,000,000
2nd Baseman: Jose Altuve (HOU): $26,000,000
Shortstop: Carlos Correa (MIN): $36,000,000
3rd Baseman: Anthony Rendon (LAA): $38,000,000
Outfield: Aaron Judge (NYY): $40,000,000
Outfield: Mike Trout (LAA): $35,450,000
Outfield: Kris Bryant (COL): $27,000,000

Top Positional Spenders

Starting Pitching: Despite letting Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, & Taijuan Walker walk in free agency, the Mets carry a $116M payroll for their 5 projected starting pitchers. The Reds enter 2023 with around $6M allocated to their rotation.

Relief Pitching: The Astros have around $42M allocated to their bullpen, and will rely on it heavily in 2023. The Angels also bulked up their relief pitching experience pool this winter.

Infielders: Despite a starting shortstop making his MLB debut, the Yankees hold baseball’s most expensive infield for 2023, with nearly $72M allocated to their 8 available players.

Outfielders: A splash contract for CF Brandon Nimmo soars the Mets to the top outfield spending spot, with over $50M allocated to Nimmo, Starling Marte, & Mark Canha.

Notable 2024 Free Agents

The list of pending free agents for next winter isn’t quite as strong as the one we just went through, but there are still plenty of names to pull out here - especially if we include potential opt-outs. Browse the full list here: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2024

However, this is and will remain the Year of Ohtani. We’ve never seen a player like this in the field, and unless something goes terribly wrong over the next 6 months, we’re going to experience a contract like we’ve never seen before as well.

We’ve evaluated Shohei Ohtani from every angle this winter, and as it currently stands he’ll enter the season as a $230M pitcher, and a $330M hitter. So putting a $500M total valuation on the player as a whole certainly tracks.

Will he respond to the spotlight in the same manner that Aaron Judge did 1-year ago? Baseball enthusiasts across the world can only dream.

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2023 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

2023 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Amidst continued contract turmoil between Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, and looming extensions for Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, & Jalen Hurts, let’s readdress Patrick Mahomes’ 10 year, $450 million deal in Kansas City.

Mahomes is entering Year 4 of his 12 year, $480M total value contract with the Chiefs, set to earn $40.45M for the 2023 season. In total, the deal contains 9 years, $414.55M remaining to be earned. But just how much of that will Mahomes actually earn?

Hopefully this helps shed a little light…

If he is released during the 2023 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $134.3M of dead cap, $117.3M of which is cash. ($183M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2024 league year (Age 29)
The Chiefs would be left with $97.6M of dead cap, $77.4M of which is cash. ($183M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2024 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $100M of dead cap, $79.9M of which is cash. ($186M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2025 league year (Age 30)
The Chiefs would be left with $53.5M of dead cap, $41.95M of which is cash. ($186M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2025 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $90M of dead cap, $80.85M of which is cash. ($225M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2026 league year (Age 31)
The Chiefs would be left with $43.7M of dead cap, $38.9M of which is cash. ($225M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2026 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $96.1M of dead cap, $91.35M of which is cash. ($277M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2027 league year (Age 32)
The Chiefs would be left with $51.8M of dead cap, $49.4M of which is cash. ($277M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2027 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $106.8M of dead cap, $104.4M of which is cash. ($332M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2028 league year (Age 33)
The Chiefs would be left with $44.45M of dead cap, $44.45M of which is cash. ($332M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2028 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $89.4M of dead cap, $89.4M of which is cash. ($377M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2029 league year (Age 34)
The Chiefs would be left with $44.95M of dead cap, $44.95M of which is cash. ($377M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2029 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $95.4M of dead cap, $95.4M of which is cash. ($429M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2030 league year (Age 35)
The Chiefs would be left with $50.4M of dead cap, $50.4M of which is cash. ($429M / $480M earned)

If he is released during the 2030 league year
The Chiefs would be left with $64.35M of dead cap, $64.35M of which is cash. ($441M / $480M earned)

If he is released before the 2031 league year (Age 36)
The Chiefs would be left with $13.9M of dead cap, $13.9M of which is cash. ($441M / $480M earned)

Notable Notes

It’s crucial to understand that the dead cap figures noted above are based on the contract as it stands today. Every future restructure/cap conversion will increase those figures exponentially.

With that said, the first real considerable “out” in this deal comes before the 2026 league year. If the contract remains as is (it won’t), Kansas City will be left with a $43.7M dead cap hit ($39M of which will be straight cash to Mahomes). If we assume a $255M league salary cap for 2026 (low estimate), this dead hit represents just over 17% of that figure. For reference, Aaron Rodgers’ traded dead cap hit will represent almost 18% of the 2023 league cap.

There’s no point in time where Patrick Mahomes can be released without the Chiefs having to fork over a pile of future cash.

If we lop off the 2031 season ($38.5M of that cash doesn’t vest until March 2031), Mahomes is staring down 8 years, $376M from 2023-2030, an average of exactly $47M per year. Even if the salary cap rises to $300M during this span, Mahomes adjusted AAV will still live north of 15% of that figure.

Is this a fully guaranteed contract? No. Is this a creative way to make sure a star QB makes a ton of money without having to pump all $500M into escrow out of the gate? Yes. Are there a few difficult but doable outs in the middle of this deal should the Chiefs need to bail? Yes. Will salary conversions make those outs more difficult? Yes.

Will Mahomes stay in this contract through 2030? I wouldn’t say it’s likely. The QB market isn’t going to plummet, so the numbers coming in around him are going to be tantalizing in a few seasons. The 2027 league year seems a prudent line of demarcation for both sides here. 1) Mahomes will be set to earn just under $60M cash that season. 2) $104.4M of future salary becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2027. Taking that cash and converting it into a newly structured contract that better aligns with the current QB market can be beneficial for both sides.

Arizona Cardinals

Top 51 Space: $21.4M

Pause.
Add: Kyzir White (LB, PHI, 2 years, $10M / 1 year, $5M) Has 250 tackles in the past two seasons.
Subtract: Zach Allen (DE, DEN, 3 years, $47.5M / 2 years, $32M) Arizona is simply not in the business of 2 year deals right now. DeAndre Hopkins’ eventual trade will soon top this list.

Atlanta Falcons

Top 51 Space: $22.4M

Gas pedal half way down.
Add: Jessie Bates III (S, CIN, 4 years, $64M / 2 years, $36M) Top 5 free agent on most lists, fills at least 1 of ATL’s biggest holes. Keeping the O-Line intact (Lindstrom, McGary) is a close 2nd here.
Subtract: Calvin Ridley (WR, JAX, 1 year, $11M) ATL secures a 5th this year, and at least a 3rd next year (assuming he plays a normal season in JAX). If Jacksonville extends Ridley, that turns into a 2nd - which then becomes decent return value. Ridley should be on this ATL squad.

Baltimore Ravens

Top 51 Space: $7M

No Guarantees
Add: None.
Subtract: Ben Powers (G, DEN, 4 years, $51.5M  / 2 years, $27M) Is he an elite interior lineman? Nope. But $13.5M per year for 2 years isn’t elite interior lineman pay. Losing an experienced lineman in a spring where the QB position is in complete flux seems like backwards thinking.

Buffalo Bills

Top 51 Space: $10M

Still really good.
Add: Jordan Poyer (S, BUF, 2 years, $12.5M / 1 year $7M) Poyer’s return in any capacity was a welcomed surprise. But a return on a 1 year, $7M practical contract seems like a complimentary dessert course after dinner.
Subtract: Tremaine Edmunds (LB, CHI, 4 years, $72M / 3 years, $57M) The price was always going to be out of range, but Edmunds really (finally) settled into his role at the center of Buffalo’s defense last season. It appears the Bills will utilize the draft to replace him.

Carolina Panthers

Top 51 Space: $28M

Aggressive.
Add: The #1 overall pick. No offense to Adam Thielen, Miles Sanders, etc… but a team handing out 4 picks and a starting wide receiver to move up in the draft will always get the nod here. The trade was processed early enough to believe they’ll at least consider listening to flip offers.
Subtract: D.J. Moore (WR, CHI) The player included in the #1 pick swap, has 3 years, $52M remaining on his contract. If Moore lives up to WR1 status, it’s outstanding value for Chicago.

Chicago Bears

Top 51 Space: $38M

Eagles 2.0?
Add: 10 players at $120M guaranteed. All of them are upgrades, most of them will start in 2023.
Subtract: The #1 pick. Obviously the plan here is to put a roster around Justin Fields that proves he’s worthy of the role going forward. If that doesn’t turn out to be the case, then what are we even doing here?

Cincinnati Bengals

Top 51 Space: $17M

Stay the course.
Add: Orlando Brown Jr. (OT, KC, 4 years, $64M / 2 years, $42M) Brown’s stock dropped in 2022, but he’s still an upgrade for a Bengals team that won’t stop trying to keep Joe Burrow protected in this contention window.
Subtract: Jessie Bates III (S, ATL, 4 years, $64M / 2 years $32M) There’s a world where Bates falls victim to having “1 elite season” with a lot of above average play elsewhere. But losing both Bates and Vonn Bell in the same offseason will be a tough hill to climb on the field, even if rebuilding the position through the draft will ease the pain financially speaking.

Cleveland Browns

Top 51 Space: $10M

Stuck, unless Deshaun arrives.
Add: Juan Thornhill (S, KC, 3 years, $21M / 2 years, $14M) A sneaky quiet signing with a player that KC absolutely wanted to retain this spring. Thornhill replaces recently released John Johnson, and should be an immediate upgrade to the secondary. Also, a facelift on the interior defensive line was necessary - but it feels like Cleveland is having to do this every offseason.
Subtract: Pick #42. I realize that moving back 32 spots in order to acquire WR Elijah Moore on a 2 year, $3.3M contract shouldn’t feel like much of a risk, but this feels like a buyer beware scenario in a spot where Cleveland should be aggressively trying to put the best possible set of weapons around Deshaun Watson in Year 2.

Dallas Cowboys

Top 51 Space: $16M

Still really good.
Add: Brandin Cooks (WR). This probably should have happened last November, but here we are a few months later, with Houston retaining $6M of the $18M guarantee for 2023. Dallas now owes their WR2 $12M this year, and a reasonable $8M in 2024 (non-guaranteed).
Subtract: Dalton Schultz (TE, HOU) While full details aren’t yet available, it appears the Texans scored Schultz at around $6M base value for 2023. Dallas certainly wasn’t interested in a multi-year guarantee here, but not kicking the tires on this 1-year showcase contract seems like a miss. Was Schultz the one saying no here?

Denver Broncos

Top 51 Space: $7M

Let Russ Sit in the Pocket.
Add: Sean Payton (COA). No offense to the completely rebuilt right side of the offensive line, but bringing in a new adult to manage this discombobulated roster was the single most important need for Denver this offseason.
Subtract: Dre'Mont Jones (DE, SEA, 3/51.3, 1/23.5) Denver isn’t exactly flush with defensive linemen these days, and Jones showed ability to get to the QB from both inside and outside last season. Seattle’s $23M Year 1 cash flow likely scared off more than a few other contenders here though.

Detroit Lions

Top 51 Space: $25M

The Corner has been Turned.
Add: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S, PHI,1 year, $6.5M) CGJ was a ball hawk when available to Philly last season, and it’s his injury history that likely tempered his contract this free agency. The Lions are happy to be that showcase team for 2023. His ability to turn the ball over may win the Lions a ballgame or two this season, and the price is certainly right.
Subtract: Jamaal Williams (RB, NO, 3 years, $12M / 2 years, $8.1M) He’s almost 28 year old, so shame on me for calling this a tough loss, but the Lions haven’t had many things work for them over the past decade. Williams’ ability to find the endzone for this team might not be replaceable - even at this stage of his career.

Green Bay Packers

Top 51 Space: $22M

Love interest.
Add: Matthew Orzech (LS, LAR, 3 years, $3.6M/1 year, $1.1M) If you don’t regular follow the Packers in March, you might be surprised to find out that they’ve made almost zero significant movement yet. This is just the status quo, and - quite obviously - larger transactions are brewing.
Subtract: Allen Lazard (WR, NYJ, 4 years, $44M / 2 years, $22M). Rodgers’ forthcoming trade aside, losing Lazard, an experienced weapon, is a downgrade for Jordan Love’s offense, that appears to be flush with youth for the upcoming season.

Houston Texans

Top 51 Space: $25M

Strength in numbers.
Add: Volume. For the second offseason in a row, the Texans lead the world in numbers of players signed to 1 year (actual or practical) contracts.
Subtract: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (DE, CLE, 3 years, $19M / 2 years, $13M) Posted a career year in 2022 on a weak Houston defense and at 27 years old would have made sense as being factored in as one of the “core players”.

Indianapolis Colts

Top 51 Space: $21M

Different but the same.
Add: Gardner Minshew (QB, PHI, 1 years, $3.5M) Let’s say the draft doesn’t break their way and they end up with more of a “project” QB, and the Lamar Jackson offer sheet option doesn’t break their way and the Colts end up having to work from within for 2023. Minshew at $3.5M is a more than capable option, especially when paired with a solid offensive line, an elite running back, and a wide receiver ((Pittman) projected to break out next season.
Subtract: Bobby Okereke (LB, NYG, 4 years, $40M / 2 years, $22M) It was a big free agency for off ball linebackers with prices ranging from vet minimum to $18M per year. Okereke falls somewhere in the middle, despite 275 tackles over the past two seasons, and Top 5 production in 2022 alone.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Top 51 Space: $11M

The calm after last year’s storm.
Add: Calvin Ridley (WR) So many fringe contenders make a splashy March move to add another weapon to their young QB’s arsenal that helps push them to the next level. Jacksonville secured this in November. Ridley’s on a 1 year, $11M (non-guaranteed) showcase deal that could turn into a gamechanger.
Subtract: Jawaan Taylor (OT, KC, 4 years, $80M / 3 years, $60M) We knew the money was going to be crazy, but factor in $60M of practical guarantees plus the Chiefs, and it’s hard to blame Taylor for leaving the Jags this March.

Kansas City Chiefs

Top 51 Space: $6M

Surprising amount of turnover?
Add: Jawaan Taylor (OT, JAX, 4 years, $80M / 3 years, $60M). The Cheifs opted to pay Taylor $60M over the next 3 seasons instead of retaining Orlando Brown Jr, who secured $49M through 2025 with Cincy.
Subtract: Juan Thornhill (S, CLE, 3 years, $21M / 2 years, $14M) Thornhill was a Top 20 safety last year in a contract season and wound up at $7M per year through 2024 in Cleveland. This seems like one the Chiefs should have ponied up for.

Las Vegas Raiders

Top 51 Space: $15M

One leg going down, one leg going up.
Add: Pick #100. I realize I’m avoiding the 20 players who were signed this free agency thus far (including a new QB1), but securing pick #100 for Darren Waller last week seems like the kind of move we look back in on 3 years and gush at the player that was selected. It’s a really deep early Day 2 draft, and the Raiders now have more ammo for it.
Subtract: Jarrett Stidham (QB, DEN, 2 years, $10M | 1 year, $4M). I know, this seems lazy, but Garoppolo’s ability to be available for 18 weeks seem impossible based on his track record, and Stidham at least showed signs of being capable to handle Josh McDaniels’ system on a loaner rate. Losing this familiarity seems like a miss.

Los Angeles Chargers

Top 51 Space: $16M

A little too quiet.
Add: Eric Kendricks (LB, MIN, 2 years, $13.25M | 1 year, $6.75M) As the only player the Chargers have added from another team this March, Kendricks was the obvious choice here - but he’s also a solid add. Letting him manage business behind the likes of Bosa & Mack seems like a very nice triangle setup for the Chargers in 2023.
Subtract: Drue Tranquill (LB, KC, 1 year, $3M) LAC probably believes they’ve upgraded here with the above Kendricks signing, but anytime you lose a viable start to a division rival on a value contract, it has to at least be noticed.

Los Angeles Rams

Top 51 Space: $14M

Storyline. Shut it down.
Add: A third-string TE and pick #77. I realize that money does a lot of the negotiating within a trade package, but the Rams  - a franchise in desperate need of draft picks - simply didn’t get enough back for their biggest trade chip in Jalen Ramsey. How do we know this is true? The Dolphins took his traded salary, guaranteed it, and added another year at that price - and guaranteed that.
Subtract: Bobby Wagner (LB, SEA, 1 year, $7M) Obviously this was played induced, but Wagner was outstanding for the 2022 Rams, chose to opt out of $11M in 2024 to stay, and chose to sign back with division rival Seattle at just $7M max.

Miami Dolphins

Top 51 Space: $4M

Getting Defensive.
Add: Jalen Ramsey is the obvious choice here, but the Dolphins quietly added 3 Day 1 starters on the defensive side of the ball in Ramsey, MLB David Long and S Deshon Elliott. Mike White as the new QB2 is also a very intriguing add here.
Subtract: Elandon Roberts (LB, PIT, 2 years, $7M / 1 year, $3.5M) Roberts had a career year in 2022 and was likely secured a starting spot in Pittsburgh as part of his negotiations. The move leaves Miami a little thin in the linebacker spot, but the draft should close that gap shortly.

Minnesota Vikings

Top 51 Space: $1.4M

One and Done?
Add: Byron Murphy (CB, ARI, 2 years, $17.5M / 1 year, $8.6M) With Patrick Peterson off to Pittsburgh, the Vikings could have slow-played this position and let the youth simply rise to the top. Adding a 25-year-old Murphy on a 1 year guarantee is a really nice depth play for Minnesota, who appear to be thinking only about 2023 right now (rightfully so).
Subtract: Dalvin Tomlinson (DT, CLE, 4 years, $57M / 3 years, $42.5M) This contract was probably $15M + 1 year too long for Minnesota’s liking, but he’s a body they’ll need to replace in the coming weeks still. 

New England Patriots

Top 51 Space: $14M

Sneaky better?
Add: Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA, 1 year, $4.5M) Stop me if you’ve heard the high hopes for a TE joining the Patriots narrative, but this one at least comes with financial value from the get go. Gesicki + JuJu Smith-Schuster at a combined $14,5M cash this year could be a really nice shot in the arm to the Patriots’ offense - especially if a certain upgrade at QB1 comes to fruition.
Subtract: Damien Harris (RB, BUF, 1 year, $1.77M) Harris was outplayed by Rhamondre Stevenson down the stretch, but that would have been the case for plenty of RBs across the league. Losing him to a division rival at $1.5M guaranteed seems like a miss.

New Orleans Saints

Top 51 Space: $15M

Still hanging on.
Add: Derek Carr (QB, LV, 4 years, $150M | 2 years, $70M) Does Carr represent a major upgrade from the past few seasons of Jameis Winston & Andy Dalton? There are believers on both sides of that equation. But it probably didn’t take the Saints front office too long to look around their division, assess the kind of moves that were available to them this March, and pull the trigger on another “rebuild on the fly” offseason.
Subtract: David Onyemata (DT, ATL), Kaden Elliss (LB, ATL) Shy Tuttle (DT, CAR) Losing a trio of reliable defensive pieces to a division rival isn’t ideal, and when you factor in the loss of Marcus Davenport (MIN), it’s safe to assume if the Saints have simply gone through too much turnover on one side of the ball to remain competitive.

New York Giants

Top 51 Space: $4M

Run it back.
Add: Darren Waller (TE, LV, 4 years, $52M / 1 year, $11.875M) Not in love with forfeiting the #100 pick to acquire him, but a healthy Waller is a top-flight weapon for Daniel Jones to work with in 2023. You paid the QB, you trust the new system, might as well upgrade the accessories.
Subtract: Julian Love (S, SEA, 2 years, $12M / 1 year, $6.3M) Love posted a career year in 2022 and just turned 25 years old. The Giants clearly had a line of demarcation on bringing him back, and Seattle simply surpassed it.

New York Jets

Top 51 Space: $2.3M

All-In.
Add: Nathaniel Hackett (OC). This was supposed to be how the Broncos got Rodgers to Denver. Now it appears that the Jets will successfully pull off that plan, along with a familiar face or two (Allen Lazard, etc…). Hackett + Rodgers should represent a strong upgrade from what the Jets have been able to produce in the past few seasons. And that alone might be enough to make them legitimate AFC contenders.
Subtract: Elijah Moore (WR, CLE) Moore was a trade candidate even before the Aaron Rodgers conversation picked up steam, and this move satisfies one of two outcomes. 1) It becomes a more attractive pick (#42 versus #74) for trade purposes. 2) It becomes a better pick to actually use in replacing a player like Moore this April. 

Philadelphia Eagles

Top 51 Space: $11.5M

Notable Losses.
Add: Jason Kelce (C, PHI, 1 year, $14.25M) Cheating here, but it can’t be stated how important Kelce’s return is to Jalen Hurts and the organization as a whole. Kelce’s new deal carries a fake salary in 2024 that will allow the Eagles to move on from him Post June 1st next offseason (if he decides to hang them up).
Subtract: Miles Sanders (RB, CAR, 4 years, $25M / 2 years, $13.2M) It’s getting harder and harder to say that losing a RB in the offseason is a problem, but Sanders’ value to this Eagles offense was underrated in many regards. When he was knocked out of the Super Bowl early on, the offense never found the running game again. Philly likely covers this concern up dramatically with a high (potentially very high) draft selection this April.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Top 51 Space: $10M

Slow progress
Add: saac Seumalo (G, PHI, 3 years, $24M / 1 year, $8.25M) Seumalo turned a career year into a nice free agent deal, and represents another upgrade on the offensive line for a Pittsburgh team in much need for it. As with 99% of Steelers’ contracts, it’s a 1 year guarantee on its head.
Subtract: Chase Claypool (WR, CHI) Claypool was moved to Chicago at last November’s deadline, but the reward comes in the coming weeks, as the Steelers will have the #32 overall selection in the draft thanks to the trade. Addition by subtraction.

San Francisco 49ers

Top 51 Space: $5M

D-Line for Days
Add: Javon Hargrave (DL, PHI, 4 years, $84M / 2 years, $41M) Hargrave leaves a great Philly defensive line for an equally great 49ers unit. It’s also an excellent contract for a player already north of 30 years old. There’s an awful lot to like here.
Subtract: Mike McGlinchey (RT, DEN, 5 years, $87.5M / 3 years, $52.5M). The Broncos simply outpriced everyone here. Any free agent contract that has 3 years of practicality out of the gate is an outstanding deal for the player. It stands to reason that an early Day 2 draft pick is focused here.

Seattle Seahawks

Top 51 Space: $10M

Operating in parallel worlds.
Add: Dre'Mont Jones (DE, DEN, 3 years, $51M / 1 year $23M). The Seahawks added Jones in the same regard that they brought back Geno Smith - a slight front loaded overpay, with a practical out after 2023. Why is this important? Their draft capital affords them the opportunity to address both the Edge Rusher and QB1 positions in a couple of weeks. Depending on how that all plays out, they can stagger their finances in these areas as needed. Smart business.
Subtract: Rashaad Penny (RB, PHI, 1 year, $1.35M) Penny was a mixed bag in his 5 seasons in Seattle, and injuries are a big part of his resume, but he showed plenty of flashes of great worth in this Pete Carroll system. Seattle will rely on Kenneth Walker Jr. now, and will almost certainly spend another worthy draft pick on his RB2 in the coming weeks. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Top 51 Space: $5.7M

Stuck but still involved.
Add: Lavonte David (LB, 1 year, $7M) Most teams in TB’s situation would opt to rip this band-aid off and run it into the ground, but a few notable veteran contracts with upside down dead cap scenarios really hampered their ability to do so. Getting a player like David (and CB Jamal Dean for that matter) really fortifies their ability to compete in 2023. New QB Baker Mayfield has had worse options around him.
Subtract: Rakeem Nunez-Roches (DT, NYG, 3 years, $12M / 1 year, $5.5M) Not a position the Buccaneers were interested in pumping more money into in their current iteration, but the Giants get a good player to add to their already bolstered defensive line. 

Tennessee Titans

Top 51 Space: $8M

Cap & standings casualties.
Add: Andre Dillard (OT, PHI, 3 years, $29M / 2 years, $17M) Taylor Lewan’s release put the Titans behind the 8 ball on the edges of their offensive line, so this signing isn’t only necessary, it has a chance to hold plenty of value at around $8.5M per year guaranteed. Dillard projects to be the starting left tackle, but that might change based on draft selections.
Subtract: David Long (LB, MIA, 2 years, $11M / 1 year, $5.5M) Struggled to stay on the field the past two seasons, but also improved mightily across his first 4 NFL seasons. The Dolphins’ scored a Day 1 starter in the middle of their defense at a reasonable 1 year tender.

Washington Commanders

Top 51 Space: $3M

A roster ready for a better QB.
Add: Jacoby Brissett (QB, CLE, 1 year, $8M) A really undersold move, as the Commanders have been vocal about giving youngster Sam Howell the keys to this team. But Washington has enough of a roster to compete in the NFC East, and if the wheels fall off early, Brissett has shown he’s more than capable of picking up the pieces and holding together a stable offense.
Subtract: Cole Holcomb (LB, PIT, 3 years, $18M / 1 year, $6M) He missed half of 2022, but is 1 season removed from 140 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 2 interceptions and a sack. He can fill up the stat board better than most - and now joins Linebacker U.

Sam Burns grabs his first PGA Tour victory of the season and earns himself $3.5 million for the 2023 season. This brings his 2023 on-course earnings to $5.4 million and brings his career on-course earnings to $19.9 million.

World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play

 Top 4

1. Sam Burns: $3,500,000

2. Cameron Young: $2,200,000

3. Rory McIlroy: $1,420,000

4. Scottie Scheffler : $1,145,000

Full Results

2023 Earnings Leaders Update

1. Scottie Scheffler: $11,631,495

2. Jon Rahm: $10,048,541

3. Max Homa: $7,709,412

4. Kurt Kitayama: $5,693,388

5. Rory McIlroy: $5,333,286

Full List