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The Rookie Wage Scale is Diluting Veterans

The four-year NFL rookie contract was put in place to assure that veterans were afforded the opportunity to cash in on their later contracts. But 7 years later, front offices are beginning to use the rookie wages as more than just future team-building scales. Rather, teams are combining low-paid, big potential rookies with a slew of middle-paid veterans to build depth at a cheaper cost, reducing the need for blockbuster veteran deals.

Should this trend continue, the lifespan of the already diminishing NFL career will become even smaller, as both the risk for injury + the inability to cash in will become more prevalent. We’ve seen a great deal of players hang up the cleats at or around the age of 30, while many others simply don’t find NFL work at this stage of their life.

In essence, the rookie wage model is working in parallel to the college structure many of us followed: Lock yourself for four years of undergraduate (standard rookie contract), and a few of us went on to a year or two of graduate school (5th-year option, franchise tag). Then from there, the school opens the door and says good luck finding work.

Guarantees Will Soon (Finally) Diminish Contract Lengths

It’s taken awhile, but the push for shorter, more impactful, and mostly guaranteed contracts appear to be coming in the next wave of NFL signings. Kirk Cousins’ being allowed to hit the free agent market was certainly a pioneering moment for this, but the torch is now in the hands of players like Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Donald, or Russell Wilson to further establish this metric. For years now, teams have used large signing bonuses to generate much of the guaranteed dollars of an NFL contract, and in doing so, required 4-5 year lengths in order to spread those cap figures out as much as possible. Players have accepted the fact that 3 years of their 5 year contract will be beneficial to them, with the last 2 representing “fluff” necessary to shift cap dollars around. However, this leaves room for ugly situations should Year 4 come, and no new cash is available: Insert Julio Jones for example.

So how do players stop this from happening? They refuse to include the “fluff”. Between non-guaranteed salaries, per-game active bonuses, and “cap-friendly” structures, players have already ceded plenty to the teams in terms of financial control. If players like the above mentioned demand fully guaranteed 3 (or even 4) year deals, the pendulum will begin to swing back to the player, as it did for the NBA when players like LeBron James and Chris Paul helped rewrite their league terms. The NBA has even evolved to where players prefer 1-2 year contracts, not only giving them quick cash in hand, but also providing them control over where they play every few seasons.

Pushing for this structure will actually, eventually, aid our first item (Rookie Contracts Diluting Veterans). Shorter veteran contracts with more control will mean more movement, specifically in free agency. Free Agency brings better veteran contracts because teams/players will be signing for need & fit - not just to make the money work. Quicker & more frequent movement of veterans either via trade or free agency will strengthen the veteran. While the “blockbuster” contracts may be diminished, players (and teams) will know exactly what they’re getting from shorter, nearly fully guaranteed deals.

Can Young Quarterbacks Actually Win?

Despite the controlled wages, many teams value their high draft picks enough to still feel pressured into playing their brand new shiny quarterbacks right out of college. But in an era where building “dynasties” appears moot, and winning now means everything (especially for front offices, and coaching staffs), it stands to reason that a player in their initial four-year rookie deal can actually get their team to the finish line. Since 2011 (the beginning of the rookie wage scale), only Russell Wilson, in year two of his 4 year, $2.9M contract, raised the Lombardi trophy with his team. The other Super Bowl winning QBs were in year 6, 17, 18, 15, 5, & 6 of their careers at the time of their victory. This isn’t to say that it can’t be done - nor it is a push to sit rookie QBs, but it might be a push to consider moves like the Minnesota Vikings & Denver Broncos have made in recent years, signing average, steady QBs to man their ships rather than spend a high draft pick on a “franchise player”.

Without question the most intriguing group to watch over the course of the next 18 months will be the success of Jameis Winston (maybe), Marcus Mariota, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, Mitchell Trubisky, & Patrick Mahomes who have all been recently drafted and given the keys to their respective teams starting role. Winston and Mariota enter year 4, Goff/Wentz year 3, while Watson, Trubisky, & Mahomes will start year 2 in 2018.

Wentz certainly did plenty in 2017 to get the Eagles in a great spot to win it all - though he was unable to physically finish the year out. But it seems very important for one of the players mentioned here to get the job done for their respective team in 2018, if for no other reason than to validate that a highly drafted QB, played almost immediately, is the way to both win, & save money.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Should Be: Buyers
Biggest Need: Impact Hitter
Potential Fit:

Manny Machado (SS/3B, BAL, 25)
Deadline Salary: $5,333,333

The Diamondbacks sit atop the AL West, tied with the Dodgers - the most likely competition for Machado's serivces this July. Arizona may need to part ways with recently extended infielder Ketel Marte to make the deal work, while the Dodgers will likely be including a Top 10 prospect in P Dustin May. The winner of this prize might just find themselves with a division title in October.

Atlanta Braves

Should Be: Small Buyers
Biggest Need: Bullpen
Potential Fit:

Jared Hughes (RP, CIN, 33)
Deadline Salary: $708,333 (signed through 2020)

The Braves have been the surprise-team of 2018 thus far posting a NL East leading 49 wins to date. While the rotation and middle-relief slots could use an upgrade, it’s tough to imagine Atlanta shopping any of their youth (though 3B Johan Camargo could be one to watch if his bat doesn’t heat up this summer). An option like Hughes out of Cincinnati (46 IP, 35K, 1.37 ERA, 6 Saves) shouldn't break their bank as some late game help down the stretch.

Baltimore Orioles

Should Be: Sellers
Potential Sales:

Manny Machado (SS/3B, 25)
Deadline Salary: $5,333,333

Zach Britton (RP, 30)
Deadline Salary: $4,000,000

Brad Brach (RP, 32)
Deadline Salary: $1,721,666

Adam Jones (OF, 32)
Deadline Salary: $5,666,666

The Orioles are having an all-time bad year, and teams across the league know they need to sell off their parts this summer. That's never a good formula for "huge trade returns", even if Manny Macahado appears to be the prize of the deadline. Baltimore clearly needed to start this process last winter.

Boston Red Sox

Should Be: Buyers
Biggest Need: RP
Potential Fit:

Brad Hand (RP, SD, 28)
Deadline Salary: $1,166,666

The Padres are 10.5 games out of 1st place in early July, and could be in a much worse spot by the time the deadline comes around. Boston needs a seasoned arm to complement a middling bullpen for their stretch run, and a player like Hand, who has setup & closer experience fits the bill nicely.

Chicago Cubs

Should Be: Small Buyers
Biggest Need: Pitching
Potential Fit:

Seth Lugo (P, NYM, 28)
Deadline Salary: $188,000 (controlled through 2022)

If the Mets begin to sell the farm, Lugo is a name multiple teams will likely be asking about as he's now shown flashes of above average both as a starter, and bullpen arm. He's pre-arbitration through 2019, so his team control will mean a decent return for the Mets should he be moved. The Cubs need 3-5 starter help, and setup-role depth as well. Lugo would suffice in both areas.

Chicago White Sox

Should Be: Sellers
Potential Sales:

Jose Abreu (1B, 31)
Deadline Salary: $4,333,333

Joakim Soria (RP, 34)
Deadline Salary: $3,000,000

The White Sox are 27 games under .500 at the time of this article, clearly a year or two away from seeing success with their young talent. While a player like Abreu can still be considered part of the future, listening for an offer that can't be refused makes a lot of sense right now.

Cincinnati Reds

Should Be: Sellers
Potential Sales:

Raisel Iglesias (RP, 28)
Deadline Salary: $1,333,333

Scooter Gennett (2B, 28)
Deadline Salary: $1,900,000

The Reds are 14 games out of first place at the time of this piece, good for last place in the NL Central. With their short term future looking more bleak than hopeful, selling off a few core players like Iglesias and Gennett probably makes business sense. Iglesias is under contract through 2020 ($1.9M, $5M, $5M), while Gennett holds a final year of arbitration under his belt. Each should draw a pretty nice return for Cincy.

Cleveland Indians

Should Be: Buyers
Biggest Need: Outfield & Bullpen
Potential Fits:

Zach Britton (RP, BAL, 30)
Deadline Salary: $4,000,000

Blake Treinen (RP, OAK, 30)
Deadline Salary: $716,666

The Indians probably need a depth piece at the outfield position as well, but the main focus is filling up the bullpen not only for the stretch run, but for the immediate future as well. Setup man Andrew Miller and closer Cody Allen are pending free agents, along with a few depth relievers to boot. Britton is a pending free agent himself, but is almost certainly looking to land on a better team going forward, so the Indians could use the remainder of 2018 as a "trial". Treinin has two years of arbitration, and would likely cost a bit more to snag, likely a player like Triston McKenzie.

Colorado Rockies

Should Be: Cautious Buyers
Biggest Need: Starting Pitching
Potential Fits:

J.A. Happ (SP, TOR, 35)
Deadline Salary: $4,333,333

Happ might be a bit optimistic for a team that is right on the line between buyers and sellers currently, but the price and player are good fits for an immediate improvement in Colorado. It can also be argued that first base is a position of need, though Ian Desmond has recently picked up production.

Detroit Tigers

Should Be: Sellers
Potential Sales:

Michael Fulmer (SP, 25)
Deadline Salary: $191, 733

Nick Castellanos (OF, 26)
Deadline Salary: $2,016,666

Moving on from Fulmer and Castellanos would mean tougher times in Detroit for a few years, but it might be necessary to rip the band-aid off completely in order to restock the farm system and get the next phase in motion. Both of these players would bring back a haul, especially as the big dogs (Dodgers, Cubs, Angels) will likely be in the conversation. Fulmer will be starting arbitration in 2019, while Castellanos will be entering his final year.

Houston Astros

Should Be: Buyers
Biggest Need: Catcher, Pitching
Potential Fits:

Wilson Ramos (C, TB, 30)
Deadline Salary: $3,500,000

Kyle Barraclough (RP, MIA, 28)
Deadline Salary: $371,000

The Astros don't necessarily need to make a significant deadline move, but it makes sense to speculate in a few areas. With Brian McCann injured, the need for a legitimate everyday catcher down the stretch could be in play, and Ramos has been one of the best offensive catchers in the game this year. Barraclough represents a real upgrade to the bullpen for the Astros who are also likely in the conversation for another starter based on Dallas Keuchel's tough start.

Kansas City Royals

Should Be: Sellers
Potential Sales:

Mike Moustakas (3B, 29)
Deadline Salary: $2,166,666

The Royals have already shipped RP Kelvin Herrera to Washington, signifying the start of their 2018 selling period. KC re-signed Moose late in the offseason to a very team-friendly $6.5M salary, making him an affordable value for a team looking to rent. He's on pace for 35 doubles, 35 home runs, and 100 RBIs.

Los Angeles Angels

Should Be: Sellers
Potential Sales:

Garrett Richards (SP, 30)
Deadline Salary: $2,433,333

Now 13.5 games out of first place, the wheels might be falling off of another season for the Angels, who boast the 6th highest payroll in baseball this year. The disabled list is riddled with Angels' pitchers, with the exception of Richards, who carries a 3.42 ERA, 1.2 WHIP into July.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Should Be: Buyers
Biggest Need: A little bit of everything
Potential Fits:

Manny Machado (SS/3B, 25)
Deadline Salary: $5,333,333

Michael Fulmer (SP, 25)
Deadline Salary: $191, 733

Raisel Iglesias (RP, 28)
Deadline Salary: $1,333,333

The Dodgers turned a miserable start to the season completely around, and now find themselves tied atop the NL West with Arizona. A few weeks ago they were prepped to sell, but now, may be one arm/bat away from becoming serious National League contenders yet again. They'll need to overpay for Machado, but with Corey Seager on the shelf all year, his acquisition would be a big upgrade.

Miami Marlins

Should Be: Sellers
Potential Sales:

J.T. Realmuto (C, 27)
Deadline Salary: $966,666

Starlin Castro (2B, 28)
Deadline Salary: $3,333,333

Realmuto has been trying to get out of Miami for months now as the franchise pushes through yet another rebuild. The distraction has done little to his production though, as the 27-year-old boasts 20 doubles, 11 home runs, 40 RBIs, and a .310 average through 3+ months. With two more years of arbitration still left, he'll be on a few teams' radars this month, most notably the Nationals.

Milwaukee Brewers

Should Be: Buyers
Biggest Needs: 2B, C, SP
Potential Fits:

J.T. Realmuto (C, MIA, 27)
Deadline Salary: $966,666

Starlin Castro (2B, 28)
Deadline Salary: $3,333,333

Garrett Richards (SP, 30)
Deadline Salary: $2,433,333

The Brewers probably don't have enough ammo to ge to the finish line in 2018, but also don't have players they need to ditch this summer either. For this, it's expected they'll buy heavily, but at a cost to their farm system. A Realmuto-Castro deal out of Miami kills two birds, while a Kyle Gibson or Garrett Richards type pitcher makes sense for Milwaukee's stretch run.

Minnesota Twins

Should Be: Sellers
Potential Sales:

Kyle Gibson (SP, 30)
Deadline Salary: $1,400,000

Eduardo Escobar (SS, 29)
Deadline Salary: $1,616,666

Many had high hopes for the 2018 Twins, who now find themselves 11.5 games behind the Indians and on track to sell off a few pieces this summer. 2B Brian Dozier has been the likely trade option for months now, but he's been lost at the plate most of the year. The Twins will likely still dangle the 31-year-old free agent to be on the block, along with Gibson (1 more year of arbitration), and Escobar (pending UFA).

New York Mets

Should Be: Sellers
Potential Sales:

Asdrubal Cabrera (INF, 32)
Deadline Salary: $2,750,000

Jeurys Familia (RP, 28)
Deadline Salary: $2,641,666

Much has been made about the possibility that the Mets (13 games back) might look to shop star pitchers Jacob deGrom & Noah Syndergaard. Neither seem likely to be going anywhere this summer. Cabrera hasn't just been the Mets best hitter, he's been one of the best hitters in the National League thus far. Still a strong infielder at age 32, he'll be a valuable asset for a team making a postseason run. Familia faced a suspension, battled a few injuries, got knocked around a bit, but now appears to be righting the ship just in time for trade talks. Both he and Cabrera at slated for free agency this winter.

New York Yankees

Should Be: Buyers
Biggest Need: A little bit of everything
Potential Fits:

Kyle Gibson (SP, MIN, 30)
Deadline Salary: $1,400,000

Michael Fulmer (SP, DET, 25)
Deadline Salary: $191,733

Mike Moustakas (3B, 29)
Deadline Salary: $2,166,666

This is a VERY good team, but also in many regards a very young team. There's no question a back of the rotation starter is in need, along with a more consistent bat at first base. Fulmer would require a major haul as he's yet to hit arbitration, while Gibson has one more year in 2019. Moustakas has quieted his doubters from this past free agent period, on pace for 35 doubles, 35 home runs, and 100 RBIs

Oakland Athletics

Should Be: Buyers (or Blake Treinen Sellers)
Biggest Need: Impact Bat, Starting Pitcher
Potential Fits:

Michael Fiers (SP, DET, 33)
Deadline Salary: $2,000,000

Maikel Franco (3B, PHI, 25)
Deadline Salary: $983,333

The A's have been playing great baseball of late, climbing back into the American League conversation - something we havent been able to say in a bunch of years. To this regard, Oakland should be looking to push, even if a World Series run isn't likely. HOWEVER, Blake Treinen has been lights out in the back of the bullpen since taking over the role. With 2+ years of team control still remaining, the A's would be in a position to reel in an Andrew-Miller type haul for Treinen right now - and the Indians may just be the best trade partner here as well.

Philadelphia Phillies

Should Be: Buyers
Biggest Need: Manny Machado
Potential Fits:

Manny Machado (SS/3B, 25)
Deadline Salary: $5,333,333

The Phillies were expected to improve in 2018, but breakout seasons from Odubel Herrera & Aaron Nola have this team primed to win now. Reeling in the big fish that is Machado this summer would take a mini-haul, and some positional shifting as well (Scott Kingery currently locked in at SS), but the Phillies should consider themselves a Top-2 target for Manny this month.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Should Be: Stand Patters

The Pirates are in that difficult to decide place in the standings where buying could work, selling might be better, but doing nothing is probably the safest bet for the good of the team. OF Corey Dickerson & C Francisco Cervelli represent a few possible sell options if it gets to that point.

San Diego Padres

Should Be: Sellers
Potential Sales:

Tyson Ross (SP, 31)
Deadline Salary: $583,333

Brad Hand (RP, 28)
Deadline Salary: $1,166,666

The Padres signed Ross to a no-risk minor league contract in January, and he’s been one of the surprises of the year to date (3.87 ERA, 1.24 WHIP through 17 starts). Now he and veteran RP Brad Hand stand to be two of the top trade targets this July.

San Francisco Giants

Should Be: Stand Patters

The N.L. West is a toss-up, with the 4th-place Giants just 3.5 games back. With major acquistions done this past winter (McCutchen, Longoria), and the team financially very close to the Luxury Tax line, it stands to reason that San Francisco will operate with their current roster for the majority of the year, barring a few smaller moves (possibly Matt Harvey, SP, CIN, Nathan Eovaldi, SP, TB).

Seattle Mariners

Should Be: Buyers
Biggest Need: Manny Machado
Potential Fits:

Cole Hamels (SP, TEX, 34)
Deadline Salary: $7,500,000

Shin-Soo Choo (OF, TEX, 35)
Deadline Salary: $6,666,666

Chris Archer (SP, 29)
Deadline Salary: $2,083,333

The Mariners are currently just 1.5 games back in the AL West, but many are just waiting for this train to fall off the tracks. Seattle can stop that from happening with a few impact deadline moves - if they think they can afford it. Their current ace Felix Hernandez has the worst ERA on the team, so an immediate upgrade to the rotation seems likely. Cole Hamels has long been talked about here, and the timing seems right to make that happen. However a cheaper, and possibly more effective option might be Happ out of Toronto who has posted better numbers pound for pound.

St. Louis Cardinals

Should Be: Ride Out the Stormers

The Cardinals always seem to be hanging around this time of year, and find themselves just 6.5 games back in the NL Central. It seems unlikely they'll have enough juice to push past both the Cubs & Brewers though, putting their deadline status in question. It doesn't even seem certain the Cardinals will keep their manager for another month, let alone a specific player. The roster is in a bit of peril, with Dexter Fowler having a career worst year, injuries riddled throughout the lineup, and the Greg Holland experiment failing a little bit more every day. It will be tough for St. Louis to move any of these contracts this month.

Tampa Bay Rays

Should Be: Sellers
Potential Sales:

Wilson Ramos (C, 30)
Deadline Salary: $3,500,000

Chris Archer (SP, 29)
Deadline Salary: $2,083,333

Ramos has been one of the best catchers in all of baseball in 2018, while Archer should be activated from the DL next week, just in time for a July showcase. Ramos is a pending free agent, while Archer has 3 years remaining on his current contract. Both players shoud gain Tampa a nice return.

Texas Rangers

Should Be: Sellers
Potential Sales:

Cole Hamels (SP, 34)
Deadline Salary: $7,500,000

Adrian Beltre (3B, 39)
Deadline Salary: $6,000,000

Hamels has $7.5M remaining in 2018, and a $6M buyout for 2019 ($20M salary), so he's an expensive rental with not great numbers, but it stands to reason that a few teams will be in on his services. Beltre hasn't found the power this year much at all, but still hits for average, and plays a strong third base. OF Shin-Soo Choo, INF Jurickson Profar, & RP Tony Barnette could also be in play.

Toronto Blue Jays

Should Be: Sellers
Potential Sales:

J.A. Happ (SP, 35)
Deadline Salary: $4,333,333

Josh Donaldson (3B, 32)
Deadline Salary: $7,666,666

Donaldson's status remains a big question mark as the 32 year old remains on the DL. It's possible he's not healthy in time for a deadline swap, meaning Toronto will watch him walk for free this winter. Happ should be a different story, as the veteran has been linked to multiple teams, and has the numbers to back up a nice deal. OF Curtis Granderson, RP John Axford & RP Tyler Clippard could also be trade chips this July.

Washington Nationals

Should Be: Buyers
Biggest Need: C, SP
Potential Fits:

Wilson Ramos (C, 30)
Deadline Salary: $3,500,000

Chris Archer (SP, 29)
Deadline Salary: $2,083,333

The Nats have been linked to Marlin's catcher J.T. Realmuto since the beginning of the season, but the asking price continues to be too rich for Washington to consider. So we'll assume this as a likely Plan B. Ramos has been fantastic, and Archer is days away from an activation from the DL, and would pose as a nice fit for the back of the Nationals' rotation. He's signed through 2021.

With 1,000 games under his belt, Mike Trout is beginning to make a serious case for baseball’s GOAT conversation. Lost on an Angels’ team that hasn’t been able to push through to the postseason with any regularity of late, the numbers for Trout are eye-popping across the board.

The 26-year-old is averaging 182 hits, 35 doubles, 36 home runs, 100 RBIs, 30 stolen bases, and a .989 OPS in 7+ seasons. He’s had 4 seasons with a batting average north of .300, and is currently carrying a .332 average, league leading .471 on base percentage, and league leading 1.155 OPS - a ridiculous split for nearly July.

While much has been made of the pending free agency for Nationals OF Bryce Harper and Orioles SS Manny Machado, it would behoove both of these players to look in Trout’s direction when contemplating their next financial move. Many eyebrows rose when Mike Trout agreed to a 6 year, $144.5M contract back in March of 2014, a deal that bought out his entire arbitration process plus his first three years of free agency. In an era where $200M+ contracts were almost certain for the game’s elite players, a $144M contract seemed questionable for Trout given his high ceiling. But a closer look at the deal might change your impression a bit:

The Arbitration Years

Let’s begin with a look at the first three seasons, his arbitration years. His 2015 season comes with a $5.25M salary + a $5M signing bonus, or $10.25M. For reference, Cubs 3B Kris Bryant is playing out his first year of arbitration in 2018 on a $10.85M salary. Rockies 3B Nolan Arenado’s first year of arbitration came with a $5M price tag, as did Manny Machado’s, and Bryce Harper’s, who accepted a 2 year $7.5M extension in 2015 to keep that cost in check.

In year two of arbitration (2016), Trout reeled in $15.25M, compared to $11.5M for Machado, $11.75M for Arenado, and $13.625M for Harper.

Moving on to 2017, Trout’s year three of arbitration comes with a $4M pay raise, up to $19.25M. Elsewhere, Machado is reeling in $16M this year, Arenado $17.75M, and Harper a whopping $21.625M.

So doing some quick math on these years, we get to:
Trout: $44.75M
Harper: $40.25M
Arenado: $34.5M
Machado: $32.5M

The Veteran Years

But it’s the final three years of Mike Trout’s contract that become the most notable. For 2 decades now, baseball has been a league that has paid its stars exponentially higher year in and out regardless of logic or tact. Albert Pujols’ 7 year $100M extension with the Cardinals back in 2004 was nearly identical to the structure & reasoning behind the Mike Trout contract we assess here. But then the Angels poured on 10 years, and a guaranteed $240M more to a 32-year old shell of Albert Pujols in 2012. The Tigers have done the same with Miguel Cabrera, adding 8 years, & $248M guaranteed at age 33, while the Brewers tacked on 5 years, $105M guaranteed to a 32 year old Ryan Braun.

Long story short here, those days appear to be dwindling. We like to say Jason Heyward’s 8 year, $184M contract with the Cubs is the straw that broke the camel’s back, and in many cases that might be true. But it’s not an accident that the 2017-18 free agency season went the way it did. Teams refused to overbid, rush to pay, or add in additional “fluff” years for even the most coveted players. The result? Players were signed at or slightly below their calculated market values across the board this offseason, led by J.D. Martinez’s $22M AAV contract with the Red Sox.

Per his current contract, Mike Trout will earn $99.75M over the next three seasons, more than any player is set to make across 2018-2020 (Kershaw, $98M if he opts-in). In other words, not only did Mike Trout’s deal pay him top dollar across his arbitration range, it appears to also be paying him top dollar across his first three years of veteran status as well - a nearly perfect contract for the game’s best player. Furthermore - and maybe the most important point here, is that Trout’s contract will expire after the 2020 season, when he’ll be just 29 years old. Getting yourself to a second major contract before the age of 30 is becoming vital across all of the major American sports, as career durations shorten, and rookie wages tighten.

Harper & Machado Going Forward

Much has been made about the exciting free agency that players like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will bring us this winter. And numbers like $400M have been thrown around joyously across various mediums. But in an age of baseball where owners appear poised not to overpay, and elite players are enforcing player options (opt-outs) across all of their veteran contracts, $400M may be nothing more than a marketing buzzword.

The last eye-popping contract to hit the board was Giancarlo Stanton’s 13 year, $325 million deal with the Marlins back in 2015. But a quick glance shows that Stanton can opt-out of the deal after 6 years (2020) and “just” $107M (for reference this contract also bought out Stanton’s arbitration years at just $30M). In other words, contract numbers are beginning to not be what they seem in today’s baseball - and it’s a positive step for both teams and players.

As noted above, the age factor should be just as important to Harper & Machado as the dollar figures. Manny Machado will turn 26 in a few weeks. Harper won’t be 26 until the middle of October, but both should be very conscious of how their new contracts - wherever signed - are structured in 4 years.

Generally speaking, having analyzed contracts for a decade now, I’ve nearly always pushed for short and sweet with structure - allowing for cash upfront, and control at the end. But in Bryce Harper and Manny Machado’s case, a more plausible (and likely) contract structure should be a more strict version of Giancarlo Stanton’s. It makes sense for both to sign a hypothetical 10 year contract, but more importantly, both should be seeking multiple player options built in, the first to come in 4 years, at their 30 year age mark. In saying this, it will be extremely difficult for these players to receive top dollar in a 4 year span.

Knowing what we know about Mike Trout’s next 3 years ($99.75M), and the fact that Trout’s on-field production has been markedly better and more consistent, will teams really shell out $135M+ over a 4-year span to lock in Bryce Harper or Manny Machado? Recent free agencies plus a push to reduce luxury tax bills across the league say no. In fact, it seems reasonable to assume that neither of these players will even garner $30M per year over that first 4 year span, putting them well behind Trout in this regard.

So while the buzz continues to build (even though Harper’s numbers continue to drop), for a wild MLB offseason with huge paydays, we’re here to slow things down a bit and suggest that the details may be a little underwhelming when push comes to shove. Anyone still craving jaw-dropping, ridiculously overpaid players though, simply need to click on the NBA portion of this website.