Scott AllenMarch 27, 2023

Matt Wallace earns his first PGA Tour victory and earns himself $684k for the 2023 season. This brings his 2023 on-course earnings to $1.44 million and brings his career on-course earnings to $5.6 million.

Corales Puntacana Championship Top 5

1. Matt Wallace: $684,000

2. Nicolai Hojgaard: $414,200

T3. Sam Stevens, Tyler Duncan: $224,200

5. Austin Eckroat: $155,800

Full Results

2023 Earnings Leaders Update

1. Scottie Scheffler: $11,631,495

2. Jon Rahm: $10,048,541

3. Max Homa: $7,709,412

4. Kurt Kitayama: $5,693,388

5. Rory McIlroy: $5,333,286

Full List

Keith SmithMarch 21, 2023

Around Christmastime of 2013, it was fair to wonder if the now Brooklyn Nets were dealing with some sort of “good, but never good enough” curse from leaving New Jersey or something. In their first season in Brooklyn, the Nets made the 2013 playoffs. They were eliminated in a competitive playoff series against the Chicago Bulls, but the things were looking bright.

In the summer of 2013, the Nets added Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the mix, alongside All-Stars Joe Johnson and Deron Williams. That 2013-14 team squeaked by the Toronto Raptors in seven games, but was bounced in relatively easy fashion by the Miami Heat in the second round. By the 2015 playoffs, the Nets were bowing out again the first round and the supposed super team was broken up and a rebuild was in order.

Most of the criticism for the failure of those “can’t miss” Nets gets lumped at the feet aging stars Garnett, Pierce and Johnson, with plenty saved for Williams. But a forgotten part of that whole letdown was Brook Lopez.

Essentially a decade later, it’s easy to forget how big a part of that team Lopez was supposed to be. After playing in just five games during the 2011-12 season, the Nets last in New Jersey, Lopez became an All-Star in 2013. Johnson and Williams were the stars, but Lopez was the Nets best player when they debuted in Brooklyn.

The next season, in Year 1 of the super team Nets, Lopez was on the shelf by Christmas and the Nets were good, but not good enough. Lopez bounced back with three more solid seasons for Brooklyn, but the now-rebuilding Nets didn’t have a need for him as he approached 30, and shuttled him off to the Los Angeles Lakers.

After one OK season in Hollywood, the Lakers let Lopez walk for nothing. He was 30, coming off a down year and had that history of serious leg and foot injuries. When Lopez signed with the Milwaukee Bucks in 2018 for just the $3.4 million Bi-Annual Exception, it was seen a flyer for the Bucks.

That flyer has turned out to be one of the best signings, and subsequent re-signings, the NBA has seen over the past five years, in terms of contract, production and winning.

Now, Lopez’s second contract with the Bucks, a four-year, $52 million bargain deal, is coming to an end. Somewhat shockingly, at 35 years old, Lopez is poised to cash in again as a free agent, just like he did in 2015. Let’s take a look at Lopez’s options.

The Veteran Extension

Because he’s in the final season of his contract, Lopez will be extension-eligible all the way through June 30. He can sign a veteran extension with the Bucks that would normally look like the following:

    • 2023-24: $16,688,371
    • 2024-25: $18,023,441
    • 2025-26: $19,358,511
    • 2026-27: $20,693,581
    • Total: four years, $74,763,904

That’s a 120% bump over Lopez’s current salary of $13.9 million with 8% raises. But, there’s a complicating factor at play here for Lopez in any sort of four-year contract, and that’s the Over-38 rule.

Because Lopez would be 38 years old at the start of the 2026-27 season, the Over-38 rule would be triggered in this type of extension. It doesn’t prevent the Bucks from signing Lopez to a Veteran Extension, but in this case, the extension would be functionally a three-year deal, because of the cap of a 120% raise off this season’s salary.

In effect, Lopez would be limited to the following in an extension:

    • 2023-24: $16,688,371
    • 2024-25: $18,023,441
    • 2025-26: $19,358,511
    • Total: three years, $54,070,323

That’s still a 120% bump off of this year’s salary of $13.9 million, with 8% raises on the following two seasons.

Because of the way the Over-38 rule handles deferred salary, the Bucks would have to push any salary from Year 4 onto Years 1-3. In this case, Year 1 has a cap of 120% raise or the roughly $16.7 million. So, there’s no further room to push that salary up, which eliminates a fourth year.

Now, there is an additional factor at play here, which involves the way a “zero year” (a year with no cap hit) is handled in an Over-38 contract. The Bucks could get creative and sign Lopez to a four-year extension worth almost the same amount. That deal would look like this:

    • 2023-24: $16,688,371 cap hit = $12,233,381 actual salary + $4,454,990 deferred salary
    • 2024-25: $17,534,513 cap hit = $12,845,050 actual salary + $4,689,463 deferred salary
    • 2025-26: $18,380,655 cap hit = $13,456,719 actual salary + $4,923,936 deferred salary
    • 2026-27: $0 cap hit - $14,068,388 actual salary + $0 deferred salary
    • Total: four years, $52,603,538

The benefit in this case for the Bucks is that if they were in a position where they ever needed to waive and stretch Lopez, they could do so based on having an extra year in the contract. However, the cap hits would increase each year, while Lopez would be sacrificing about $1.4 million in total money.

Re-signing with the Bucks as a free agent

It’s hard to envision Brook Lopez leaving Milwaukee at this point. He’s been there for five years now, and five very good years at that. The Bucks can offer him up to his max of $46,900,000 in first-year salary. For a reference point, here’s the max deal Lopez can get from Milwaukee:

    • 2023-24: $46,900,000
    • 2024-25: $50,652,000
    • 2025-26: $54,404,000
    • Total: three years, $151,956,000

That’s the full 35% of the projected $134 million cap with 8% raises. As covered above, the Over-38 rule functionally limits Milwaukee to a three-year deal for Lopez, but especially so if they did anything approaching a max deal (however unlikely that may be).

Re-signing with another team as a free agent

Hard is may be to envision, let’s say Lopez leaves Milwaukee this summer. This is the max an opposing team could pay Lopez:

    • 2023-24: $46,900,000
    • 2024-25: $49,245,000
    • 2025-26: $51,590,000
    • Total: three years, $147,735,000

That’s the same first-year salary at 35% of the projected $134 million cap, but with 5% raises. Same as an extension with Milwaukee or re-signing with the Bucks, the Over-38 rule would come into play with another team, effectively eliminating a fourth year.

Summary

Brook Lopez is in a very interesting place. Sure, he’s about to be 35 years old, and the thought of handing any player at that age a ton of money is a bit scary. But, outside of a back issue last season, Lopez has been very durable for the entirety of his five-year Milwaukee tenure.

Lopez is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate this season. And he’s averaging 15.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game. Those are all the highest averages Lopez has had since his final year with the Nets in 2016-17. It’s not a career-year, because Lopez used to be a All-Star, but it’s a late-career rebound of sorts.

A major factor is Lopez’s perfect fit in the Bucks ecosystem. He’s become the preeminent stretch-5, non-Karl-Anthony Towns division, in the NBA. His shooting helps open the floor for Giannis Antetokounmpo. And teams can’t stash a small on Lopez, because he’s still very willing to mash them in the post.

Defensively, Lopez is the key to the Bucks drop defense. He anchors everything for Milwaukee, and you can see and feel the difference when he’s off the floor. Even when Lopez isn’t directly blocking shots, he’s altering them and forcing misses.

If Lopez was 25 years old vs 35 years old, he’d be a no-brainer max player. It wouldn’t even be a question. But he is 35 years old. And Lopez does have some injury history to at least be cognizant of.

We can start by eliminating any kind of four-year extension or four-year new deal this summer. The Over-38 complications make it simply not worth it.

We can also eliminate anything approaching the max. As good as Lopez is, no one is handing a max deal to a center of his age.

The three-year veteran extension feels about right. It would come with an $18 million AAV, and that’s pretty reasonable for Lopez. However, if you’re the Bucks, you might prefer he hits free agency and you can sign him to a slightly bigger deal in terms of first-year salary for next season, but have it descend each of the following two seasons.

That deal could look something like this:

    • 2023-24: $19,600,000
    • 2024-25: $18,032,000
    • 2025-26: $16,464,000
    • Total: three years, $54,096,000

That would be the maximum allowable 8% declines per season. It comes in roughly at the same amount as the three-year Veteran Extension, but as Lopez’s play presumably falls off, his impact on the cap sheet would decrease too.

For Milwaukee, they have another factor to consider too. This roster is getting expensive! The Bucks already have $114 million committed to the roster for six players for next season. Khris Middleton is highly likely to opt out of his deal, as he’ll be one of the best free agents available this summer.

That’s a lot of roster spots to fill, and that’s without factoring in new deals for Middleton and Lopez. This season, the Bucks are more than $28 million into the luxury tax. If they re-sign both Middleton and Lopez, and fill out the roster with reasonably projected deals for some other pending free agents, Milwaukee will be deep into the tax again next season. And that will probably carry over for at least a season or two after that.

If keeping the immediate tax bill down is a factor, the Bucks will likely be looking for Brook Lopez to do a deal in the range of what he can get via the Veteran Extension. Ideally, they might be able to even get somewhat of a hometown discount, maybe something in the range of three-years, $45 million?

If the goal is to keep the tax bill down in future years, when the repeater tax will become a factor, Milwaukee would be better off front-loading a new deal for Lopez in free agency. That would be costly this year, but helpful when the 2025 and 2026 tax bills come due. Of course, if Middleton were to leave, the Bucks would have considerably more flexibility with what they could offer Lopez and the structure they could use.

Brook Lopez has found a home in Milwaukee. He’s a perfect fit there and seemingly happy there. That presumably gives the Bucks somewhat of an advantage on keeping their big man home. But coming off a great late-career season, Milwaukee can’t expect too much of a hometown discount. Expect Lopez to land a deal that pays him between $15 and $18 million AAV, with the structure of the deal telling us a lot about both the Bucks immediate and future plans.

Michael GinnittiMarch 21, 2023

Now a week deep, we'll take a positional look at the largest signing, most interesting contract, and best available players across the 2023 NFL offseason. Related: 2023 NFL Free Agency Tracker

Quarterback

Top Contract

Derek Carr (Saints)
4 years, $150,000,000 ($70M practically guaranteed)
Carr locked in $60M fully guaranteed at signing with his new franchise, with another $10M set to become fully guaranteed next March. If it all goes wrong, the Saints can cut bait after 2024 for a $27.1 dead cap hit ($10M cash), saving $18.5M. For now though, 3 years, and $100M seems practical.

Of Interest

Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers)
1 year, $4M ($4M guaranteed)
The Buccaneers should offer Mayfield every opportunity to start all 17 weeks in 2023, making his $4M base value a potential bargain. There’s $4.5M of incentives built into this deal, but it’s a really smart reset scenario for both sides here.

Best Available

Carson Wentz (30)
He’s faltered out of his last two starting roles, so a backup contract is almost a certainty this time around. Baker Mayfield’s 1 year, $4M contract is a likely target.

Running Back

Top Contract

Miles Sanders (Panthers)
4 years, $25,000,000 ($13M guaranteed)
Sanders has the largest average salary, practical guarantee, and guarantee at sign figure among all free agent running backs, finding a solid payday in Carolina for the next two seasons. The Panthers will be able to free up over $5M to move on after 2024, making this a 2 year, $13.4M deal for practical purposes.

Of Interest

Alexander Mattison (Vikings)
2 years, $7,000,000 ($6.35M guaranteed)
The Vikings made a bit of a statement here in bringing back their RB2 on a healthy $6.35M guarantee. It stands to reason that Dalvin Cook’s time in Minnesota is limited - potentially even immediately speaking.

Best Available

Ezekiel Elliott (27)
A lot has been made about Zeke not living up to the massive contract Dallas handed him 4 years ago, but the production he was able to put together when healthy shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s already shown he can complement another RB, and he’ll be asked to do that again somewhere else in 2023.

Wide Receiver

Top Contract

Allen Lazard (Jets)
4 years, $44,000,000 ($22M guaranteed)
Lazard slots in as a proven #2 behind stud Garrett Wilson (though the Jets may not be done adding firepower), on a 2 year, $22M deal for practical purposes. A void year keeps his 2023 cap figure down to $3.2M.

Of Interest

Parris Campbell (Giants)
1 year, $4,700,000 ($2.9M guaranteed)
The Colts #59 selection back in 2019 finally found some footing in 2022 (57 catches, 581 yards, 3 TDs), and now gets a chance to build on that with a Giants offense that also found some footing last season.

Best Available

Odell Beckham, Jr. (30)
Yes he’s coming off of two ACL tears, and the idea of him playing a full 17-week season again seems unimaginable, but if the price is right (1 year, $4M-$8M + incentives) a roster that’s simply looking for a low ceiling depth add could find a lot of value here.

Tight End

Top Contract

Hayden Hurst (Panthers)
3 years, $21,750,000 ($13M guaranteed)
Hurst cashes in on a nice year with the Bengals, locking down what should be $15.25M total over the next two seasons. He’ll be a key option for what figures to be a new young QB in Carolina.

Of Interest

Robert Tonyan Jr. (Bears)
1 year, $2,650,000
Tonyan is two years removed from 50+ catches, 500+ yards, and 11 TDs alongside Aaron Rodgers’ MVP season. He was working back from injury last year, but was still a viable option in Green Bay. He joins a Bears squad where he can work in complement to Cole Kmet, with a young QB looking to make his name. The ROI on a sub $3M deal could be excellent here.

Best Available

Austin Hooper (28)
Hooper should be considered in the same conversation as Hayden Hurst, after an undetected strong 2022 campaign in Tennessee (41 grabs, 450 yards, 2 TDs). There should be a multi-year contract still sitting out there for him.

Offensive Line

Top Contract

Jawaan Taylor (OT, Chiefs)
4 years, $80,000,000 ($40M guaranteed)
KC wasted no time replacing Orlando Brown Jr., bringing over the Jaguars right tackle to switch over to left for the foreseeable future. Taylor gets $40M fully guaranteed up front, plus another $20M locked in next March. About as good as it gets on the open market these days.

Of Interest

Isaac Seumalo (G, Steelers)
3 years, $24,000,000
Seumalo had a breakout year after missing much of 2020-2021 due to injury. If he can maintain this level of play, he’ll be a massive upgrade at the left guard position for Kenny Pickett’s offense.

Best Available

Dalton Risner (G, 27)
Risner might never be an above average guard in this league, but his consistency and availability should be plenty to garner him a multi-year contract in the coming days. Is there $20M guaranteed out there?

Defensive Line

Top Contract

Javon Hargrave (49ers)
4 years, $84,000,000 ($40M guaranteed)
The Niners’ defensive line is starting to look like something out of the 70s on paper. It’s clearly a priority for this front office, as $40M fully guaranteed for a 30-year-old states out loud. All of the guarantees in this deal leave in the next two seasons, but it’s not crazy to assume that he gets 3 years, $61.5M out of this contract.

Of Interest

David Onyemata (Falcons)
3 years, $35,000,000 ($24.5M guaranteed)
The Falcons’ began their mass turnover on the defensive side of the of the ball with a strong contract to woo Onyemata away from division rival New Orleans. He’ll now park himself next to Grady Jarrett on the defensive line, and assuming he’s available (6 game suspension for PED in 2022), should immediately upgrade their ability to slow down an opponent.

Best Available

Poona Ford (DE, 27)
He’s been a bit of a one-trick-pony (run stuffer) since joining the league, but his pass rush numbers have ticked up slightly annually. There are plenty of teams looking to drop a player like this in the middle of their defense, and a 2 year, $12M deal should get it done.

Edge Defender

Top Contract

Arden Key (Titans)
3 years, $21,000,000 ($11.58M guaranteed)
Key turned a $4M prove it contract in Jacksonville into $11.5M fully guaranteed, with 2 years, $14M on the table for practical purposes. He’ll join a pretty solid Tennessee defense this season, and should fit in well with a strong cast of characters.

Of Interest

Marcus Davenport (Vikings)
1 year, $13,000,000 ($10M guaranteed)
Another Saints defender on the move, Minnesota adds an experienced pass rusher as leverage for what could be growing contention with players such as Za’Darius Smith & Danielle Hunter. The Vikings used void years to drop his 2023 cap figure down to $5.9M.

Best Available

Frank Clark (29)
Clark doesn’t have the numbers to top many “best of” lists, but he passes the eye test every single year. It stands to reason that the Chiefs would want him back in the fold at the right price, but there should be multiple offers on the table for his services at around the 1 year, $8M mark.

Linebacker

Top Contract

Tremaine Edmunds (Bears)
4 years, $72,000,000 ($50M guaranteed)
Edmunds peaked at the perfect time on his way out of Buffalo, and the Bears were ready to pounce with a massive deal. He’ll secure $22M in 2023, $42M thru 2024, and $57M thru 2025 - almost all of it fully guaranteed.

Of Interest

T.J. Edwards (Bears)
3 years, $19,500,000 ($7.9M guaranteed)
Chicago didn’t stop with one big off-ball linebacker signing. Edwards leaves the Eagles on what seems like a team-friendly 3 year, $19.5M deal, less than $8M fully guaranteed. He’ll complement Edwards in the middle of the Bears’ defense. Why didn’t the Eagles match a 1 for $8M contract here?

Best Available

Bobby Wagner (32)
Age is certainly a factor, but it didn’t appear to slow his game last season in LA. Wagner’s release wasn’t production-related - it was window-of-contention related. Every contender has reached out by now, and a 1 year, $7.5M deal + incentives should get it done.

Cornerback

Top Contract

Jamel Dean (Buccaneers)
4 years, $52,000,000 ($24.5M guaranteed)
Dean surprised most with a return to Tampa, and a deal less than $15M per year. He’s all but assured $25M+ over the next two seasons, so it’s a slightly backloaded structure. It stands to reason that Dean had stronger offers from elsewhere and simply wanted to return to the Bucs here.

Of Interest

Cameron Sutton (Lions)
3 years, $33,000,000 ($22.5M guaranteed)
Sutton leaves the Steelers for Detroit, bringing versatility and outstanding coverage numbers to a team desperate to slow down opponents this season. He earned $12.2M in 6 seasons with Pittsburgh. He’ll find $12M more in 2023 alone.

Best Available

Rock Ya-Sin (26)
Not yet 27, Ya-Sin isn’t going to provide numbers that jump off of the page, but he’ll complement an established secondary just fine going forward. The Ravens appear to have real interest here, though his $9M valuation could be too rich for their liking.

Safety

Top Contract

Jessie Bates III (Falcons)
4 years, $64,020,000 ($36M guaranteed)
One of the first big fish to be caught this March, Bates represents a massive upgrade to a Falcons’ secondary that has been absolutely torched in past seasons. He’ll cash in $23M this season thanks to an $18M signing bonus, with 2 years, $36M fully guaranteed at his disposal.

Of Interest

Jordan Poyer (Bills)
2 years, $12,500,000 ($6.24M guaranteed)
Poyer had moving boxes packed to leave Buffalo before Christmas, but clearly didn’t find the dollar figures he was hoping to on the open market - even from the tax-free state teams. His return to Buffalo on what could be a 1 year, $7M contract at minimum is all one big surprise.

Best Available

Taylor Rapp (25)
Rapp was asked to do a lot in LA, but his work as a pure tackler is what stands out most as he hits the open market. With many of the big names off the board, Rapp’s bottom line here might be pretty acceptable for interested parties. 2 years, $10M?

Scott AllenMarch 20, 2023

Taylor Moore earns his first PGA Tour victory and earns himself $1.46 million for the 2023 season. This brings his 2023 on-course earnings to $2.75 million and brings his career on-course earnings to just north of $4.5 million.

Valspar Championship Top 5

1. Taylor Moore: $1,458,000

2. Adam Schenk: $882,900

T3. Tommy Fleetwood, Jordan Spieth: $477,900

5. Wyndham Clark: $332,100

Full Results

2023 Earnings Leaders Update

1. Scottie Scheffler: $10,486,495

2. Jon Rahm: $9,934,779

3. Max Homa: $7,344,412

4. Kurt Kitayama: $5,048,388

5. Tyrrell Hatton: $4,473,894

Full List

Scott AllenMarch 20, 2023

Danny Lee wins the second LIV Golf event of 2023 at Tuscon via four player playoff earning individually earning himself $4 million, plus $125,000 for the team bonus. Lee's career LIV Golf earnings (individual + team) is now at $4.15 million.

Tuscon Top 5

1. Danny Lee: $4,000,000

T2. Louis Oosthuizen, Brendan Steele, Carlos Ortiz: $1,558,333

5. Charles Howell III: $975,000

Full Results

Team Earnings

1. Fireballs GC (Carlos Ortiz, Abraham Ancer, Sergio Garcia, Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra): $3,000,000 ($750,00 each)

2. 4Aces GC (Patrick Reed, Dustin Johnson, Peter Uihlein, Pat Perez): $1,500,000 ($375,000 each)

3. Iron Heads GC (Scott Vincent, Danny Lee, Kevin Na, Sihwan Kim): $500,000 ($125,000 each)

Scott AllenMarch 15, 2023

Hendrick Motorsports

NASCAR has assessed penalties to Hendrick Motorsports for unapproved parts modifications at Phoenix Raceway. In total, Hendrick Motorsports was fined $400,000, docked 400 team points (100 per team), docked 300 driver points (100 per team excluding No. 9 car), and 40 playoff points (10 per team). The $400,000 fine is the largest to one organization in NASCAR history.

No. 5 Team, Kyle Larson/Cliff Daniels

Crew chief fined $100,000 + four race suspension

Loss of 100 team points + loss of 10 team playoff points

Loss of 100 driver points + loss of 10 driver playoff points

No. 9 Team, Josh Berry/Alan Gustafson

Crew chief fined $100,000 + four race suspension

Loss of 100 team points + loss of 10 team playoff points

No loss of driver points or playoff points due to substitute driver

No. 24 Team, William Byron/Rudy Fugle

Crew chief fined $100,000 + four race suspension

Loss of 100 team points + loss of 10 team playoff points

Loss of 100 driver points + loss of 10 driver playoff points

No. 48 Team, Alex Bowman/Blake Harris

Crew chief fined $100,000 + four race suspension

Loss of 100 team points + loss of 10 team playoff points

Loss of 100 driver points + loss of 10 driver playoff points

Kauling Racing

NASCAR has assessed penalties to Kaulig Racing for unapproved parts modifications at Phoenix Raceway.

No. 31, Justin Haley/Trent Owens

Crew chief fined $100,000 + four race suspension

Loss of 100 team points + loss of 10 team playoff points

Loss of 100 driver points + loss of 10 driver playoff points

Denny Hamlin

Denny Hamlin has been fined $50,000 and 25 driver points for his intentional contact with No. 1 car, Ross Chastain. Hamlin voiced his intention to hit Chastain on his podcast, Actions Detrimental.

Keith SmithMarch 15, 2023

Austin Reaves has one of those NBA success stories you love to see. Reaves went undrafted out of Oklahoma at the 2021 NBA Draft before signing a two-way contract with the Los Angeles Lakers. Following Summer League and offseason workouts, the Lakers quickly signed Reaves to a two-year, standard contract before his first official NBA game.

It’s that two-year nature of the deal that has the Lakers in a complicated spot as far as keeping Reaves beyond this season.

When Los Angeles signed Reaves, they were only able to offer him a two-year deal at the minimum. That’s sees Reaves paid $1,563,518 for this season. The reason the deal was so short and so small is that the Lakers had no other avenues with which to give Reaves a larger or longer deal. Los Angeles had already committed most of their Taxpayer MLE to Kendrick Nunn. That left just a minimum deal for Reaves, and deals signed using the Minimum Exception can only be for two years in length.

Flipping forward to today, Reaves is an integral member of the Lakers rotation and Nunn was traded to the Washington Wizards. And in a few months, Reaves will become a restricted free agent.

And that restricted free agency comes with some complications for the Lakers, because Reaves is an Arenas free agent.

In 2003, Gilbert Arenas was a breakout star with the Golden State Warriors. As Arenas emerged, Golden State happened to be a fairly expensive team. When the Washington Wizards gave Arenas a big offer sheet as a restricted free agent, the Warriors were essentially powerless to match it. That meant, despite hitting on a second-round selection, Golden State lost Arenas for nothing.

The 2005 CBA rectified things (to a point) by creating the Gilbert Arenas Provision. This gives incumbent teams a far greater opportunity at retaining players who are now classified as Arenas restricted free agents.

In order for a player to be an Arenas free agent, they must be coming off their first or second year in the NBA and they must be given a qualifying offer and made a restricted free agent. When a player is an Arenas free agent, opposing teams can still offer whatever salary they are able to give, but the incumbent team is given an avenue to match the offer.

What happens in these offers is that the first-year salary for an Arenas free agent is limited to either the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NTMLE) or what a team can match using their Early Bird exception. It’s important to note that this only applies to players who are Early Bird free agents. If they are non-Bird, then the incumbent team is limited to using the NTMLE to match.

That results in what is often referred to as a “poison pill” structure for a contract. For example, here’s what a four-year, $80 million offer sheet to an Arenas free agent would look like this offseason in terms of salary structure:

    • 2023-24: $11,368,000
    • 2024-25: $11,936,400
    • 2025-26: $27,724,010
    • 2026-27: $28,971,590
    • Total: four years, $80,000,000

If you think this deal looks different from most you are used to, you would be correct. The first two seasons are pretty standard. It’s the NTMLE amount, followed by a 5% raise. After that, it gets a little complicated. That’s where the “poison pill” descriptor comes into play, because of the huge jump in salary from Year 2 to Year 3.

How you determine the salaries for the last two season is you subtract the sum of Years 1 and 2 from the total salary. Then, you split the remainder over the final two seasons, with a 4.5% bump in salary from Year 3 to Year 4.

It’s the above process that makes an Arenas offer sheet a complicated one. The player still gets paid in full, but their team is allowed to match the offer by using the NTMLE (or Early Bird rights, if applicable) to do so. But there’s one more set of complications that matter here.

For the team signing the Arenas player to an offer sheet, the cap hits for them would be the average of the total salary over four years. Sticking with our four-year, $80 million example, the signing team would have cap hits of $20 million per season on their cap sheet.

The matching team is not only given the chance to match, but they are also given the ability to determine how they want the contract to hit their cap sheet, if they are under the cap when they match. They can use the actual salary structure as laid out above as the cap hit. Or the team can choose to use the average salary as the cap hit. If the team is over the cap and matches, they must use the structure where they match with the Early Bird exception or the NTMLE.

One final thing to note: If a team chooses to match, whatever version of cap hits they choose become that player’s cap hit for the life of the deal. This includes if they are traded to another team.

With all that in mind, let’s get back to Austin Reaves and his next contract.

The Veteran Extension

We’re only listing this to say that Austin Reaves is not extension-eligible. Reaves two-year contract is too short to eligible to be extended. Only a contract between three and six seasons in length, or a previously extended contract, can be extended.

Re-signing with the Lakers using the Early Bird Exception

The Lakers are pointing towards being an over-the-cap team this coming offseason. Instead of having $30 million or so in cap space, the pre-deadline trades LA made puts them in position to re-sign recently acquired players like D’Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura, and Austin Reaves.

This is where it’s fortunate that the Lakers have Early Bird rights for Reaves. While not as flexible as full Bird rights, Early Bird rights give LA a good chance to re-sign Reaves to a reasonable salary.

This is what the maximum contract the Lakers can give Reaves projects at, should they use his Early Bird Rights:

    • 2023-24: $11,331,600
    • 2024-25: $12,238,000
    • 2025-26: $13,144,656
    • 2026-27: $14,051,184
    • Total: four years, $50,765,568

Early Bird rights allows for a team to give the player a first-year salary of 105% of the average salary from the prior season. From there, the player can receive up to 8% raises. A contract using Early Bird rights must be for a minimum of two years, and can be for up to four years.

Signing with another team as a restricted free agent

This is where the Arenas Provision comes into play. We used $80 million as our example to explain the Arenas Provision, but that’s probably a little rich for Austin Reaves. But could an average salary of $15 million, for a total of $60 million, be in play? We’ve seen shooters get paid handsomely in the past. Shooters who can do a little more? Those guys always get paid.

If Reaves got a $60 million offer sheet over four years, here’s how that could look given the Arenas Provision:

    • 2023-24: $11,368,000
    • 2024-25: $11,936,400
    • 2025-26: $17,944,059
    • 2026-27: $18,751,542
    • Total: four years, $60,000,000

Remember: This is the actual salary structure. The Lakers could choose to match this structure using the NTMLE and assume the above as cap hits each season.

For the team signing Reaves to an offer sheet, they would assume the average-salary structure above as the cap hits for each season. That would look like this:

    • 2023-24: $15,000,000
    • 2024-25: $15,000,000
    • 2025-26: $15,000,000
    • 2026-27: $15,000,000
    • Total: four years, $60,000,000

(Note: The Lakers could also use Early Bird rights to match the salary structure for Reaves. That structure would look a lot like the one laid out under the Early Bird section, but with a similar bump from Year 2 to Year 3 in an Arenas offer sheet match.)

Summary

The Lakers are in a spot where a team can make them swallow hard to keep Austin Reaves. Matching first-year salary at roughly $11.3 million isn’t really an issue. That’s fair value for Reaves. The second-year salary on a 5% bump really isn’t a difficult decision either.

It’s that Year 3 bump, followed by Year 4, where it could get unwieldy.

If you match, and assume the actual structure as the Lakers, you keep your tax bill down for this season and next. With big money committed to LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and several key free agents to sign, Los Angeles is very likely to be a tax team for at least the next two seasons.

Then, in Years 3 and 4, you’ve got Reaves on a salary potentially approaching as much as $18 to $19 million. And those could be the first years of a post-James and Davis Lakers team. That could be money the Lakers might not really want on the books, especially if they are resetting their roster.

Before we get there, it’s important to ask, is Austin Reaves even worth $15 million AAV?

He’ll be 25 before next season, so he’s not exactly a young prospect. But Reaves is pretty good. And it’s not just the Lakers limelight pumping him up either.

This season, Reaves has averaged 11.3 points on 51/39/86 shooting splits. And he’s not just a three-point shooter who happens to get to the free throw line once and a while, either. Reaves is averaging 3.3 free throw attempts per game. That’s pretty good for a reserve guard.

Reaves is also a solid defender, decent rebounder for his position and a good passer. At an AAV of $15 million, he’d rank as the 25th highest-paid shooting guard in the NBA next season. That would put him right between Lu Dort and former Laker Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. He’d also be just behind Luke Kennard, Kevin Huerter, teammate Malik Beasley (if his option is picked up), and just ahead of Gary Harris, former teammate Talen Horton-Tucker (a one-time Arenas guy himself) and Terance Mann.

That $15 million AAV neighborhood feels about right for Reaves. With even a slightly bigger role, he’s probably producing at a level similar to most of his contemporaries in that salary range.

If you add it all up, the Los Angeles Lakers can keep Austin Reaves. Nothing should really prevent that from happening. After very questionably losing Alex Caruso two summers ago, and then trading Talen Horton-Tucker ahead of this season, it would be good to see the Lakers lock in and keep a guard they developed.

If another team wants to play a staring contest with Los Angeles, they better be prepared to come with a big enough offer to make the Lakers blink. We’re talking something probably approaching the $75-$80 million range.

From the Lakers side, they should try to get things locked up before an offer sheet even comes. That would allow Los Angeles to keep Reaves under their own terms without having to deal with matching an offer sheet. After a couple of years of somewhat of a drain of in-house, younger talent, it’s important that the Lakers do what they can to keep Reaves.

Keith SmithMarch 14, 2023

It would be disingenuous and wrong to start any article, conversation or discussion about Ja Morant with anything but hoping that he gets the help he needs. Morant has reportedly entered a counseling facility to seek help and treatment after a series of questionable off-court decisions. As one of the NBA’s brightest young stars, everyone should be rooting for Morant to get things to a good place in his life.

It’s that place as one of the NBA’s brightest young stars that earned Morant a huge contract extension that will kick in with the start of next season. Because the NBA calendar doesn’t pause, and cap sheets don’t really adjust, we’re going to examine Morant’s extension, despite far more important factors at play. The hope is to answer some of the many questions circulating about Morant’s deal and where things may go from here.

Last summer, Morant inked a five-year, maximum extension with the Memphis Grizzlies. That contract currently projects to look like this:

    • 2023-24: $33,500,000
    • 2024-25: $36,180,000
    • 2025-26: $38,860,000
    • 2026-27: $41,540,000
    • 2027-28: $44,220,000
    • Total: five years, $194,300,000

That’s 25% of the projected salary cap of $134 million for next season. Morant also gets the maximum 8% raises on the deal. There is also a 15% trade bonus in the contract. Notably, the extension includes no options. It’s a fully-guaranteed, five-year deal.

Now, here’s the important part: Morant’s extension includes Designated Rookie language. That means, Morant could be eligible to jump a salary tier in his deal. In order to get there, Morant would need to accomplish one of the following things:

  • Win 2023 NBA MVP
  • Win 2023 Defensive Player of the Year
  • Be named to a 2023 All-NBA team

Obviously, as great as Morant is, he’s not winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year. Perhaps oddly enough, the latter is far more of a stretch than the former.

But an All-NBA nod is on the table. Or, it was, at least.

If Morant is named to All-NBA, his contract will look like this instead:

    • 2023-24: $40,200,000
    • 2024-25: $43,416,000
    • 2025-26: $46,632,000
    • 2026-27: $49,848,000
    • 2027-28: $53,064,000
    • Total: five years, $233,160,000

Making All-NBA would see Morant jump to the 30% of the cap tier. He’d still get the maximum 8% raises on the deal too. The 15% trade bonus stays, no matter what. And, importantly, there will still be no options in the deal.

As you can see, there is nearly a $39 million difference for Morant in the two deals. That’s a significant amount of money, especially when you consider some of Morant’s endorsement deals now seem to be in flux.

Morant made All-NBA second team a season ago. Had he kept up his production this season, and had the Grizzlies kept winning at a solid rate, Morant was probably a lock to make All-NBA again this season.

Now that’s in question.

There’s some thought out there that Morant could miss the remainder of the regular season. If so, he’ll have appeared in only 53 games this year. On a crowded guard line for All-NBA spots that is filled with tough decisions, voters will penalize Morant for appearing in just over half-of-a-season.

The competition for All-NBA guard spots is deep. You have players like Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Devin Booker, Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox, Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday, James Harden, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards in the mix. That’s 10 players for six spots, and that’s without mixing in any of the more long-shot cases. And outside of maybe Doncic and Edwards (and that’s a tenuous maybe), none are very likely to be bumped to the forward line.

Had he not missed this stretch of time, with more absences to come, Morant would have had a strong case as one of the top-six guards in the NBA for this season. As noted previously, it was probably a lock Morant would have made All-NBA. That’s no longer the case.

All of our decisions have consequences. It’s fortunate that Morant’s recent questionable decisions haven’t gotten to a point of truly dire consequences. We have far too many examples we can point to of promising young men being cut down far too early in their lives due to bad decisions.

For Ja Morant, he might be facing a $39 million consequence for his poor decision-making. While that’s obviously not somewhere anyone wants to be, it could be far worse. Morant getting the help he needs to make sure that it doesn’t go beyond a contract consequence is what really matters here. All of the rest will take care of itself, over what we all should hope will be a long and productive NBA career for one of the NBA’s brightest young stars.

Scott AllenMarch 13, 2023
Scott AllenMarch 13, 2023

Scottie Scheffler is the new #1 overall golfer in the world with his dominating win at THE PLAYERS Championship and earns himself an additional $4.5 million for the 2023 season. This brings his 2023 on-course earnings to $10.49 million (now the highest for the 2023 season) and brings his career on-course earnings to just north of $32 million.

THE PLAYERS Championship Top 5

1. Scottie Scheffler: $4,500,000

2. Tyrrell Hatton: $2,725,000

T3. Tom Hoge, Viktor Hovland: $1,475,000

5. Hideki Matsuyama: $1,025,000

Full Results

2023 Earnings Leaders Update

1. Scottie Scheffler: $10,486,495

2. Jon Rahm: $9,934,779

3. Max Homa: $7,344,412

4. Kurt Kitayama: $5,048,388

5. Tyrrell Hatton: $4,473,894

Full List

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