The reported forth-coming suspension for Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston does more than put a damper on the start of 2018 in Tampa Bay. With a 20-28 record across his first three seasons, Winston’s role in the long-term future likely wasn’t very secure to begin with. Now add in a legitimate off-field incident, that appears to be keeping him from 3-games in 2018, and the future seems even bleaker. 

The 24-year-old has been “OK” since his #1 overall selection back in 2015. To date, he’s averaging just under 260 yards, around 1.5 TDs and 1 INT per game in 45 starts, with a completion percentage just over 60%. His numbers did improve in 2017, at a 270 yards, 19/11, 64% clip in 13 games. But the overall issue here may be the inability for Winston to translate his talents in wins.

Yes, this is a Tampa Bay team that posted the worst defense in football last season, and Winston’s weapons haven’t exactly been consistent in his first three seasons. But at some point the team will need to decide if a change at the most important position is the underlying answer. And that decision will be coming very soon.

Current Financials
While Winston is set to earn $3.89M in 2018 (including a $3.1M roster bonus on the 5th day of training camp), his 5th-year option for 2019 jumps up to $20.922M. This 2019 salary doesn’t become fully guaranteed until the first league day of the 2019 year, however it is guaranteed for injury as of now. This could make 2018 very interesting for Winston and the Bucs, especially if Tampa gets off to a rough start, and the season begins to break down. If the plan is to move on from Winston after 2018, it’s very possible he sees little to no playing time this season, as Ryan Fitzpatrick has proven to be a viable game-managing starter in the league for years, and Tampa won’t want to risk an injury to Winston that may damage their financial plans going forward.

This of course, is all speculation at this point. It’s very likely that the Bucs still have belief in Winston and his ability to be a franchise QB for their immediate future. It seems fair though to assume that Winston is fighting for his job this season., The Bucs 2019 salary cap doesn’t offer much space or flexibility, and it will be tough to swallow $20.9M into Winston with hopes of him pushing through his current ceiling.

Market Valuation
In using the above stats to project where Winston’s value currently stands, we find that he falls in right around the Andy Dalton & Ryan Tannehill range in terms of production. Financially speaking this means a valuation of around $20.5M, almost identical to his 5th-year option for 2019. Obviously any and all of this relies on Winston's ability to regain his starting role and flourish through 2018, and likely 2019 as well. The Bucs won't be motivated to extend Jameis anytime soon based on production plus recent events. 

Related Links:
Buccaneers 2018 Salary Cap
Jameis Winston Contract
Jameis Winston Market Valuation

With the NBA now officially in offseason mode, we’ll take a quick look at some facts and figures for the upcoming draft & free agency seasons, just around the corner.

• The projected league salary cap is $101M, up just $2M from last season.
• 6PM EST on June 20th (day before the draft) the draft picks lock meaning any trades that happen will have to be done post-draft. Teams will draft players in their original slots then trade them accordingly after the fact. (i.e,: Kobe Bryant, traded from Charlotte to LA)
• Player/Club/ETO Option Decisions must be confirmed by June 29th
• Trades that are processed before July 1st use 2017-18 salaries. Anything after uses 2018-19.
• Negotiations: July 1st (midnight) - July 6th (noon) is a “negotiating” period for upcoming free agents.
• Official transactions (signings & trades can’t become official until July, 6th, Noon EST)
• The trade deadline for 2018-19 will be early February.

The Draft

The upcoming NBA Draft (June 21st), consist of two rounds, the first of which contains a rookie wage scale for its contracts. First-Round selections will sign a 2-year contract, with two additional club options to follow. Based on league salary cap projections for the upcoming season, the #1 overall pick will sign a 2-year, $17.5M contract, that includes a cap hit of around $8M for 2018-19. You can view the complete list of projected deals at our NBA Draft Tracker: http://www.spotrac.com/nba/draft/

Second round picks are not subject to a scale, and often come in at or around the minimum salary for the given year. Teams can (and have) find incredible value in players here.

Trades

When is a player eligible for a trade? Here’s a few of the more prominent restrictions:

• Free agent signings must wait 3 months, or until December 15th, whichever comes first.
• Players who are traded must wait 2 months before being traded again
• Players who sign a Super-Max Extension must wait 1 full year

Trade then Sign

Players who are traded cannot sign a major/maximum extension with their new team for 6 months (i.e. Chris Paul in Houston last year).

Trade Math

Without getting ridiculously specific with all the scenarios (and there are a few), the most important thing to make note of here is that when a trade happens, the money going out must be relatively close to the money coming in, for all teams. In most cases, teams can bring back 125% of the salary they’re sending out, plus $100,000. For example, the Cavaliers would be able to acquire salaries totaling a maximum of $44.6M in trading LeBron James and his $35.6M salary in 2018-19.

Restricted Free Agency

Notable RFAS: Julius Randle (LAL), Clint Capela (HOU), Aaron Gordon (ORL) Marcus Smart (BOS), Jusuf Nurkic (POR)

Teams have until June 29th to tender their current restricted free agents. Players can sign the offer, or hold out for offer sheets. If a tender is not offered, the player becomes unrestricted on July 1st.

Teams can place agreement offer sheets starting July 1st. The current team has 48-hours to match an offer sheet, starting at noon July 6th (official signing period).

LeBron

We’ll all know a little more about LeBron’s future in the next 10 days, based upon his decision for the $35.6M player option he holds. Should he “opt-in”, the attention will turn to trade possibilities, even if his intention is to play out 2018-19 in Cleveland. LeBron can’t currently be traded, because he has the ability to terminate his option year. Once he opts-in, he’ll become trade eligible through the February deadline. Were he to opt-out, he’ll become an unrestricted free agent and can begin negotiating with teams July 1st (but speaking with other players immediately).

Kawhi Leonard

If it’s done prior to July 1st, the formula is based on 2017-18 salaries ($18.8M). Based on the threshold, San Antonio can bring back trade pieces at a maximum of $23.8M. Should they wait until the new league year, the math would run off of his $20M salary for the upcoming season, meaning San Antonio would be allowed to bring back $25M in salary.

Draft picks do not factor into the formula at all. They are simply assets when dealing with a trade. 

These come into play specifically when a situation is lopsided in one direction, even though financially it follows the rules. Let’s say Kawhi Leonard is dealt to Washington for John Wall. Because Wall signed a super-max extension last July 26th, the Wizards must wait a full year before shipping him elsewhere. His 2018-19 salary is $19,169,800, and the Wizards are over the tax threshold, meaning they can assume a trade worth a maximum of $24M for John Wall. This means there’s room and then some for Leonard’s $20M salary. Because Wall is already extended through 2022, it’s likely San Antonio would have to package another player and/or a draft pick to even out the transaction.

Kyrie Irving

After forcing himself out of Cleveland, the 26-year-old was a veteran leader for a young Celtics team for 60 games, before injury ended his season. Irving holds an identical contract situation to Kawhi ($20M salary in 2018-19, $21M player option for 2019-20), so this would be a mathematically allowable “rental for rental” deal. Both players will be opting out next summer to position themselves for a major payday with another cap increase.

Related Links

• Player/Club Option Tracker
• NBA Free Agent Tracker
• 2018 NBA Draft Tracker
• 2018 NBA Team Salary Caps

Keeping a super-team together for a stretch of time is becoming increasingly impossible in sports. But the Golden State Warriors appear poised to be the closest thing to a dynasty this generation might ever see. We break down their upcoming financial scenarios.

Kevin Durant’s Next Contract

Kevin Durant’s made it publicly clear that he intends to re-sign with the Warriors, despite an early opt-out of his $26.25M player option for next season. He’ll have plenty of choices this spring:

Another 1+1 Contract
Likely Scenario

Because of his self-inflicted lower salary in 2017-18, Durant’s max salary for 2018-19 will be $30M (120% of his previous salary). This represents about $5M less than he could make were he to sign a long-term deal, see below. However in signing the 1 year deal, Durant would be setting himself up for a historic payday in 2019. With the NBA salary cap expected to jump about $7M over the next 12 months, Durant will have the chance to cash in on a projected 5 year $220M max contract after the upcoming season.

A Shorter, Long-Term Contract
Possible, but likely not until 2019

There’s no sign that the NBA league cap is going south anytime soon (though some of us have our doubts just how long this spike in money can truly last before breaking). With that said, it’s possible Durant opts for a 2+1 deal (2 guaranteed years plus a player option in year 3). This would guarantee KD $73.5M over the next two seasons, plus a $41M player option, and would set him up to re-sign in 2020-2021, when the league cap could be near $115M. His 5 year max contract at that point would ring in around $230M.

A Longer, Long-Term Contract
Not likely based on rights, & logic

Durant’s current rights with the Warriors (Early Bird) restrict him to a maximum of a 4 year, $158M contract this summer. Were he to wait a year or two before cashing in big (likely), he’ll be eligible for the full 5 year contract, as noted above.

Klay Thompson’s Options

Klay Thompson will be entering a contract-year in 2018-19, and has all but made it clear that he won’t be signing an extension right now. The main reasoning? Doing so would be a major loss in money.

Were he to extend now, he’d be tacking on 4 new years to his contract, for a total of $102M. By waiting for his current contract to expire in the Summer of 2019, he’ll be eligible for a projected 5 year, $188M contract in Golden State or a 4 year, $140M deal with a new team. Control + More Money = Thompson waits.

The Trade Block

It’s not without reason to think that Thompson’s reluctance to extend this season could put him on the trade block. The Warriors are facing an insurmountable luxury tax bill, especially as they’ll become repeat offenders after the 2018-19 season, putting them in financial peril through 2021. Trading Klay and his $19M salary this offseason makes their short-term plans a little easier to swallow.

There’s no question Golden State will have to let many of their bench/depth players walk this summer, but they’ll have a chance to add a solid piece using their Mid-Level Exception ($5.3M). This would be the tool to “try” to fill the void that Klay Thompson’s trade would create, and could be used to target J.J. Redick, Trevor Ariza, or Wayne Ellington.

Draymond Green’s Future

Draymond Green’s current contract runs through the 2019-20 season, so there’s not a contingent urgency to address him right now. However, the Warriors have a puzzle to put together over the next 36 months in order to keep this dynasty train on the track. Were the Warriors to extend Green this summer, he'd be inline for a 3 year, $72M extension - a move he's not likely to agree to.

To say that keeping Curry, Durant, Thompson, & Green together for the next 3-4 seasons would be hard is an immense understatement. Not only is it not likely, it’s really just not good business either. The luxury tax fines are going to start exceeding $100M per year after the upcoming season, and no business/owner should be accepting of that for a period of time.

So assuming Thompson is the player who’s left out of the equation, it will be important to “stagger” the signings of the rest of the crew in order to keep the salary cap/roster as fluid as possible for matters of depth, draft picks, etc.

Much - if not all - of this relies on how Durant’s contract is handled this summer. Should he sign another 1+1 contract, it likely means Draymond’s contract won’t be addressed until the 2020 season. But if Durant opts for a 2+1 contract this July, look for Green’s extension to be a topic of discussion next summer. Especially if Klay is a pending free agent.

Related Links:

• Golden State Warriors 2018-19 Salary Cap
• 2018 NBA Free Agents
• 2018-19 NBA Team Cap Tracker

Arizona Diamondbacks

Patrick Corbin (SP, 28)
Deadline Salary: $2,500,000

The Diamondbacks sit atop the AL West, but if the wheels begin to fall off, look for Corbin’s name to start hitting the rumor mill. The 28-year-old is one of the top prospective free agent pitchers, and Arizona will look to draw back something for him this July.
Favorite: Yankees | Sleeper: Twins

Atlanta Braves

Tyler Flowers (C, 32)
Deadline Salary: $1,333,333

The Braves have been the surprise-team of 2018 thus far posting a NL leading 28 wins to date. While the rotation and middle-relief slots could use an upgrade, it’s tough to imagine Atlanta shopping any of their youth (though 3B Johan Camargo could be one to watch if his bat doesn’t heat up this summer). Flowers is a capable starting catcher who can hit for average with decent power. But veteran Kurt Suzuki has developed a power swing over the past 18 months, and should be favored down the stretch.
Favorite: Twins | Sleeper Brewers

Baltimore Orioles

Manny Machado (SS/3B, 25)
Deadline Salary: $5,333,333

The Orioles might think they have a shot to keep Machado for the long haul, but a 14-32 start to 2018 likely puts a pin in that idea from Manny’s perspective. He’s had a fantastic first two months, posting a league-leading 61 hits, 13 doubles, 14 home runs and 42 RBIs through May 20th. He’ll be dangled as a “trade-and-sign” candidate, meaning the major markets will likely all be in come July, notably the Cubs, Yankees, Phillies, while the Brewers and Diamondbacks may be in as “rental” teams.
Favorites: Cubs, Phillies | Sleeper: Mets

Boston Red Sox

Jackie Bradley Jr. (OF, 28)
Deadline Salary: $2,033,333

The time to trade Bradley may have been last winter, as the 28-year-old is now mired in a slump, posting a career low .165 average to date, including just 21 hits all season. He’s the weakest link on a versatile, dominant Red Sox lineup right now, and could probably use a change of scenery himself. He’s arbitration eligible through 2020, so there’s no real financial urgency to move on yet, but the timing still may be right for both parties.
Favorite: Twins | Sleeper: Dodgers

Chicago Cubs

Jason Heyward (OF, 28)
Deadline Salary: $7,166,666

Few more impossible things have happened, but it’s worth a shot. Heyward’s 8 year $184M contract is arguably the worst in Chicago Cubs history, as his plate production has fallen off dramatically since leaving the Cardinals. He had a “decent” 2017, and still plays a very strong outfield, and there have been signs in early 2018 that a more consistent bat is here to stay. But Heyward is owed $106M through 2023, and any sort of trade would need the Cubs to pocket a very large portion of this.
Favorite: Cubs for Life | Sleeper: White Sox

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu (1B, 31)
Deadline Salary: $4,333,333

The White Sox have a MLB-worst 13 wins through May 20th, and appear to be a few years off from their youth-resurgence boost. With that in mind, their now 31-year old power hitting first baseman may be aging himself out of the short-term plan. Abreu is arbitration-eligible for one more season in 2019, so there’s not an urgency to move on just yet, but if the price is right, look for Chicago to strongly consider.
Favorite: Red Sox | Sleeper: Nationals

Cincinnati Reds

Billy Hamilton (OF, 27)
Deadline Salary: $1,533,333

The speedster is still arbitration-eligible in 2019, but his production is has been declining over the past 3 seasons, and the Reds as a whole are a sinking ship. Hamilton’s speed on the bases and defensive skillset are valuable to a postseason team in need, so the idea of him moving this summer isn’t crazy.
Favorite: Dodgers | Sleeper: Mets

Cleveland Indians

Francisco Mejia (C, 22)
Deadline Salary: $181,666

Mejia is arguably the Indians’ top prospect to date, but with Yan Gomes & Roberto Perez signed for 3+ years on team-friendly salaries, and an entire bullpen on expiring contracts, something will need to give over the next few months.
Favorite: Nationals | Sleeper: Mets

Colorado Rockies

Ian Desmond (1B/OF, 32)
Deadline Salary: $7,333,333

The once shortstop, once outfielder now first baseman has been underwhelming at the plate despite a $20M+ salary in 2018. Factor in top prospect Ryan McMahon waiting in the wings, and Colorado will at least attempt to move Desmond in the coming months. The issue, he holds salaries of $15M, $15M, & $8 thru 2021.
Favorite: Blue Jays | Sleeper: Athletics

Detroit Tigers

Francisco Liriano (SP, 34)
Deadline Salary: $1,333,333

The 34-year-old is having a bounce-back season on a Tigers team well under .500 heading toward June. He’s experienced, cheap, and likely a very enticing fit for teams eyeing the postseason and in need of starting pitching or a long-reliever.
Favorites: Yankees, Cubs | Sleeper: Pirates

Houston Astros

Marwin Gonazlez (INF/OF, 29)
Deadline Salary: $1,708,333

Gonzalez has shown he can play anywhere, and is coming off a career season (34 doubles, 23 homers, 90 RBIs). The bat’s been quiet thus far in 2018, and top prospect Kyle Tucker is waiting in the wings for a promotion. With an expiring contract, Houston may look to shop this summer.
Favorite: Braves | Sleeper: Cardinals

Kansas City Royals

Mike Moustakas (3B, 29)
Deadline Salary: $1,833,333

A radio-silent free agent season found Moose back in Kansas City on a very team-friendly salary. With just 14 wins, the Royals are back-sliding into the summer, and should look to gain value from their long-time veteran. He holds a $15M mutual option for 2019 that could factor into the trade negotiation.
Favorite: Braves | Sleeper: Orioles

Los Angeles Angels

Blake Wood (RP, 32)
Deadline Salary: $483,333

The Angels have been playing musical chairs at the backend of their bullpen, battling injuries throughout the 2018 campaign. With Wood ready to rejoin the fold, a strong 2 months could push him into tradeable territory, when every team with a chance will be looking to add middle-relief help.
Favorite: Brewers | Sleeper: Diamondbacks

Los Angeles Dodgers

Chase Utley (2B, 39)
Deadline Salary: $333,333

Utley returned to the Dodgers on a 2 year, $2M contract this winter, but LA is sliding down the division quickly. If the wheels fall off on the 2018 season, the right thing to do would be to find Utley a contender this summer, quite possibly in the form of a homecoming.
Favorite: Phillies | Sleeper: Braves

Miami Marlins

Starlin Castro (2B, 28)
Deadline Salary: $3,333,333

Castro was the one big piece to stay this winter as the Marlins’ new leadership group gutted the veteran salaries on the roster prior to the season. Unsurprisingly, Miami finds themselves in the basement of the NL East, and will likely remain there through the year. Castro’s production, age and reasonable salaries through 2020 ($11M, $16M option) should warrant a nice return to the Marlins should they look to move him.
Favorite: Blue Jays | Sleeper: Diamondbacks

Milwaukee Brewers

Eric Thames (1B, 31)
Deadline Salary: $1,666,667

Thames (thumb) likely won’t be back in the lineup until the end of June, so the timing may not be in his favor to be traded this summer - but a winter move could be a strong possibility. Jesus Aguilar is a younger, cheaper option at first base, and has shown strong production at the plate in Thames’ absence. Factor in an oft-injured Ryan Braun to also play some first base, and Thames’ best value may been the trade block.
Favorite: Yankees | Sleeper: Nationals

Minnesota Twins

Brian Dozier (2B, 31)
Deadline Salary: $3,000,000

The Twins have been contenders of late, and are only a few games out of the AL Central lead as we speak. Now 32, Dozier likely isn’t in the long-term plans for a younger, cheaper Twins roster. His 4 year $20M contract expires after 2018, putting him squarely on the trade block. Over the past fours seasons, Dozier’s averaging 156 hits, 34 doubles, 32 homers, 85 RBIs and an .814 OPS, fantastic numbers from the 2nd-base position.
Favorites: Cardinals, Red Sox | Sleeper: Dodgers

New York Mets

Steven Matz (SP, 26)
Deadline Salary: $192,333

The young southpaw has been given every opportunity to break-out in a Mets uniform, but can’t seem to string together enough healthy starts in a row to make it happen. If New York can find a decent return on the inconsistent Matz, a divorce may be best at this stage.
Favorite: Diamondbacks | Sleeper: Rays

New York Yankees

Brett Gardner (OF, 34)
Deadline Salary: $3,666,666

The Yankees might have waited a few months too long to move Gardner, who posted a career year in 2017. New York is loaded with power and youth across the board, so the 34-year-old outfielder and his expiring contract don’t exactly fit the mold. But Gardner’s intangibles plus a lack of viable trade return, could mean the Yankees hold on to their veteran for the stretch run. Look for a few younger players (Clint Frazier, Tyler Austin) to be on the block.
Favorites: No Trade | Sleeper: Mets

Oakland Athletics

Khris Davis (OF, 30)
Deadline Salary: $3,500,000

The Athletics have reportedly made an attempt to extend Davis to a short-term deal to keep him in-house a bit longer. The 30 year old is arbitration eligible for the final time in 2019, but is likely ready for a proper pay day as he’s poured in 2 1/2 years of solid production. He has the potential to be the biggest bat moved this summer.
Favorite: Giants | Sleeper: Rockies

Philadelphia Phillies

Pedro Florimon (INF, 31)
Deadline Salary: $200,000

Florimon’s role has been superseded by youngsters Kingery & Hernandez, as the young Phillies continue to breakout. He’ll be arbitration-eligible for the final time in 2019, but with Philly likely to make a free agent splash this winter, could be flipped for value this summer.
Favorite: Blue Jays | Sleeper: Marlins

Pittsburgh Pirates

Josh Harrison (2B, 30)
Deadline Salary: $3,416,666

Harrison expressed frustration with the Pirates offseason moves, and broke his hand 2 weeks into the season, but has rounded quickly into form since returning to the lineup recently. Pittsburgh is hanging tight in a strong AL Central, and Harrison has club options through 2020, but if the wheels fall off this summer, look for his name to be rumored.
Favorite: Padres | Sleeper: Dodgers

San Diego Padres

Tyson Ross (SP, 31)
Deadline Salary: $583,333

The Padres signed Ross to a no-risk minor league contract in January, and he’s been one of the surprises of the year to date (3.52 ERA through 9 starts). With San Diego now 7 games back of the AL West lead, Ross could be a viable trade piece come July.
Favorite: Yankees | Sleeper: Phillies

San Francisco Giants

Will Smith (RP, 28)
Deadline Salary: $833,333

If the Giants are contending, it would certainly be silly to move on from an experienced middle reliever. But if San Fran becomes sellers, look for Smith’s name to hit the rumor mill. The 28-year-old has experience closing out games, and has shown firepower in a setup role.
Favorite: Indians | Sleeper: Nationals

Seattle Mariners

Marc Rzepczynski (RP, 32)
Deadline Salary: $1,833,333

The Mariners are currently just 2 games back in the AL West, but the injury & subsequent drug-suspension of star Robinson Cano has to have the team in a bit of flux heading toward June. If Seattle looks to sell, look for them to shed some payroll in the middle of their roster.
Favorite: Cubs | Sleeper: Nationals

St. Louis Cardinals

Greg Holland (RP, 32)
Deadline Salary: $4,666,666

It’s safe to say the Greg Holland experiment in St. Louis is off to a rocky start (7.30 ERA in 16 appearances). While it’s likely he’ll tighten things up a bit, the Cardinals may need to look for help in resolving this issue, agreeing to pay a portion of his salary to move him elsewhere for the duration of 2018.
Favorite: Twins | Sleeper: Angels

Tampa Bay Rays

Chris Archer (SP, 29)
Deadline Salary: $2,083,333

Tampa is still a .500 team to date, so the idea of selling their ace off for parts isn’t likely feasible at this stage. But if the time comes to be sellers, Archer is the top candidate to be moved. He holds salaries of 7.5M, 8.25M, & 8.25M through 2021, so it’ll take a bit of a haul to wrestle him away from Tampa.
Favorite: Phillies | Sleeper: Yankees

Texas Rangers

Cole Hamels (SP, 34)
Deadline Salary: $7,500,000

The Rangers appear poised to sell off their veterans and build from the ground up over the next few seasons (a.k.a Astros, Yankees, Phillies, Braves). Unfortunately, aging, injured players like Hamels or Adrian Beltre won’t provide much return in a deadline trade. But shedding payroll and flipping out roster spots will be vital to the short-term future of the Rangers.
Favorites: Giants, Phillies | Sleeper: Yankees

Toronto Blue Jays

Josh Donaldson (3B, 32)
Deadline Salary: $7,666,666

Donaldson’s certainly done his part to keep the Jays afloat in the AL East since 2015, averaging 153 hits, 31 doubles, 37 homers and 100 RBIs over that span. The 32-year-old will hit free agency for the first time this winter, and with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. eyeing a promotion to Toronto, Donaldson’s days up north may be limited.
Favorites: Braves, Angels | Sleeper: Pirates

Washington Nationals

Victor Robles (OF, 21)
Deadline Salary: $186,666

The Robles Era hasn’t yet begun in Washington, and for a team ready to win now, there’s a chance it never does. The Nationals will need a few significant pieces to push themselves into and through the postseason in 2018, and it just may take a top prospect or two to get there.
Favorite: Mariners | Sleeper: Tigers

» Track all NFL Contract Breakdowns

*All figures below are based on a $101M league salary cap

Kevin Durant (GSW, Early Bird Rights)

Durant has already stated he’ll opt-out of this current deal with the Warriors - no surprise, and a no-brainer, as this has become the norm for elite players who are looking to make great money, but retain control of their immediate future.

Last summer, Durant was in a position to max out at $34M, with a non-bird rights max of $31.8M. He opted for $25M, allowing the Warriors to fit other pieces into their cap, and keep the unit afloat for another year.

This summer, Durant’s early bird max salary will be $35.35M. His non-bird max comes in at $30M (120% of his current $25M salary). It’s hard to imagine him taking anything less than this $30M mark, adding in a $31.5M player option for 2019-20, a figure he’ll once again opt-out from. Looking forward, Klay Thompson’s contract will expire in 2019-20, opening up a chance for Durant to cash in with a long-term, historic (projected) 5 year, $220M maximum extension.

• Max 2018-19 Salary (Early Bird Rights, not likely) = $35,350,000
• Max 2018-19 Salary (Non-Bird Rights, likely) = $30,000,000
• Max Contract (GSW), 4 years, $158,400,000 (minimum 2 years)
• Max Contract (elsewhere), 4 years, $152,000,000
• 1+1 (GSW, Non-Bird Rights) , 1 year, $30M ($31.5M player option in 2019-20)
• 1+1 (elsewhere), 1 year, $35.35M ($37.1M player option in 2019-20)

LeBron James (CLE, Bird Rights)

The arguable GOAT is putting his hometown on his shoulders yet again, primed for another deep playoff run before he gets to his summer of decisions. He’ll have plenty.

James holds a $35.6M player option in 2018-19, which is actually $300,000 more than he can make should he opt-out and sign any kind of contract with any team (including Cleveland). In other words, the only reason for LeBron James to opt-out, is if he plans to play elsewhere next season. 

LeBron’s last three contracts have been a 1+1, 1+1, & 2+1 (where the +1s represent a player option). Should he leave, he can max-out on a 4 year, $152M contract with a new team, or continue his 1+1 trend with a $35.35M salary for 2018-19 + a $38.8M player option in 2019-20. He can also take as little as he wishes should he be looking to help squeeze in additional salaries to build up his current or new roster.

It’s perfectly possible that he continues this trend to finish out his career, regardless of where, but from a financial standpoint, it might just make the most sense to opt-in to his $35.6M salary next season, then sign a more long-term contract (after 7/1/19) and finish off his career where it all began. James will be 34 years old in the 2019-20 offseason. Due to the restriction of the Over 38 rule (no max contract can run into age 38), he'll be limited to a 3 year deal worth a projected $122.4M. 

• Current 2018-19 Salary (opt-in): $35,607,969
• Max 2018-19 Salary = $35,350,000
• Max Contract (CLE), 5 years, $205,000,000
• Max Contract (elsewhere), 4 years, $152,000,000
• 1+1 (CLE) , 1 year, $35.35M ($38.1M player option in 2019-20)
• 1+1 (elsewhere) 1 year, $35.35M ($37.1M player option in 2019-20)

Chris Paul (HOU, Bird Rights)

Paul turns 33 this month, and despite initial doubts, has fit in beautifully to a James Harden-dominated offense. His contract will expire on July 1st, giving him full control over his decisions going forward. At this stage it appears the logical assumption would be for Paul to remain in Houston, on some sort of new deal - which can max out at 5 years, $205M after July 1st. But Houston has other fish to feed, as Clint Capela is set to be a restricted free agent, and vital role player Trevor Ariza is also starting down unrestricted free agency. There’s also that not so ridiculous rumor about LeBron coming to town…

A 1+1 max contract for Paul would bring him a $35.35M salary for 2018-19, + a $38.1M option in 2019-20. Some form of this structure seems a likely next step for Paul, as neither he nor Houston should want to pin themselves into a long-term situation with so many pieces moving each summer. 

• Max 2018-19 Salary = $35,350,000
• Max Contract (HOU), 5 years, $205,000,000 (after July 1)
• Max Contract (elsewhere), 4 years, $152,000,000
• 1+1 (HOU) , 1 year, $35,35M ($38.1M player option in 2019-20)
• 1+1 (elsewhere) 1 year, $35.35M ($37.1M player option in 2019-20)

Paul George (OKC, Bird Rights)

The Thunder’s attempt at throwing three great players together for a 1-year run bombed out early this postseason, putting the franchise in a bit of question going forward, starting with the future of Paul George. George holds a $20.7M player option for the upcoming season, nearly $10M less than the maximum salary he can obtain by opting-out of this current deal (likely).

The good news for OKC? By trading for George last summer, they acquired his Bird Rights, meaning they can offer him a 5 year, $175.7M extension this summer, $45M more than any other team will be able to provide. Should George decide to play elsewhere, the most he can sign on for will be 4 years, $130M. If he chooses to play the 1+1, he’ll be looking at a maximum $30.3M salary for 2018-19, with a slightly higher player option for 2019-20. 

Rumors about George to the Lakers have been swirling for 2+ years now, and it can finally become a reality this summer should the two sides come together. His financial outcome likely hinges on who goes (or comes) with him. If he’s the lone big dog to sign in LA, look for a maximum contract to come with it. 

• Current 2018-19 Salary (opt-in): $20,703,384
• Max 2018-19 Salary = $30,300,000
• Max Contract (OKC), 5 years, $175,700,000 (after July 1)
• Max Contract (elsewhere), 4 years, $130,300,000
• 1+1 (OKC) , 1 year, $30.3M ($32.7M player option in 2019-20)
• 1+1 (elsewhere) 1 year, $30.3M ($31.8M player option in 2019-20)

DeMarcus Cousins (NOP, Bird Rights)

After falling out of favor in Sacramento, Cousins came back to life in New Orleans, posting 25 points, 13 boards and 5 assists per game before his season ending injury took him out of action. The Pelicans are clearly a great fit for the big man, but are currently winning regularly without him - putting the leverage for his next contract in a bit of peril. 

Why sign him back? 

1. The Pelicans gave up a LOT to bring Cousins in this year (Hield, Evans, Galloway, 1st, 2nd)
2. New Orleans is a small market, and filling Cousins’ shoes with minimal cap space will prove very difficult.
3. Teams that can offer him a max. contract likely aren’t in the position to win that New Orleans is in.

It’s plausible to assume a maximum contract might be available somewhere, but not in New Orleans, though the Pelicans will likely come in with a very competitive below-max offer (possibly around $25M per year). 

• Max 2018-19 Salary = $30,300,000
• Max Contract (NOP), 5 years, $175,700,000 (after July 1)
• Max Contract (elsewhere), 4 years, $130,300,000
• 1+1 (NOP) , 1 year, $30.3M ($32.7M player option in 2019-20)
• 1+1 (elsewhere) 1 year, $30.3M ($31.8M player option in 2019-20)

Related Links

• 2018 NBA Free Agents
• 2018 NBA Options

It wasn’t a matter of if, but when would Matt Ryan become the next-man-up as the NFL’s highest paid player, but boy did he come away from a contract.

It’s often silly to measure an NFL contract by it’s average annual value, as much of what lies within a major football deal is generally fluff. This is not the case with Ryan’s new 5 year, $150 million extension with the Falcons. We’ll break down the numbers and structure to provide some insight as to what this all means. 

 

Cap Figures

The Falcons actually saved $3.95M in 2018 cap space with this extension, but served out a huge pile of cash to do so. Ryan will see his cap figure jump from $17.7M this year to $22.8M in 2019. From there it rises substantially up to $31.8M, $34.3M, & $35M through 2022. His 2023 season comes with a $30M cap figure should he still be active on the deal. 

Ryan’s $17.7M cap figure for 2018 now ranks 16th among active QBs. 

Cash Flow
Ryan will pull in a whopping $52.5M in 2018, thanks to a $46.5M signing bonus and $6M base salary. It’s the highest 1-year intake for a player in history, surpassing Matthew Stafford’s $51M.

He’ll earn another $21M in 2019, bringing his two-year total to $73.5M, and another $25.2M in 2020, meaning $94.5M through 3 years - and it’s all 100% guaranteed.

In other words, with $94.5M guaranteed at signing across 3 years, Matt Ryan has actually secured a contract worth $31.5M per year while thinking in these terms.


Guaranteed Money
As noted above, the contract includes $94.5M fully guaranteed at signing. This includes his $46.5M signing bonus, a $6M salary for 2018, an $11.5M salary for 2019, a $10M option bonus for 2019 (basically just another signing bonus), and a $20.5M salary for 2020. $94.5M, all in three years, all 100% guaranteed.

If he’s on the roster next March (and he will be), $5.5M of his 2021 salary becomes fully guaranteed, bringing the likely total guarantees on this deal to a nice, round $100M - the most ever.


Rankings
Not that the obvious needs to be stated, but:

• New Money AAV: $30M, 1st All-Time
• Signing Bonus: $46.5M, 2nd All-Time (Stafford, $50M)
• 1-year Cash: $52.5M, 1st All-Time
• 2-year Cash: $74M, 1st All-Time
• 3-year Cash: $94.5M, 1st All-Time
• GTD at Signing: $94.5M, 1st All-Time
• Total GTD: $100M, 1st All-Time
• % GTD at Signing: 63%, 2nd (Eli Manning, 64.3%)

View Matt Ryan’s contract details 

Aaron Rodgers is officially on the clock.

Aaron Donald, DL, Rams

Projection: 6 years, $120M, $65M guaranteed at signing

Donald has been essentially underpaid since the day he walked into the NFL, as the #13 overall selection back in 2014 has amassed 39 sacks, 148 tackles, & 9 forced fumbles in 62 games. He’s reeled in $10.2M for his efforts, and is set to earn “just” $6.892M from his 5th-year option in 2018. All signs point to him sitting on the sidelines until a new contract is in place - and rightfully so at this point.

In light of the above, with a $19.5M calculated market value, Donald is projecting toward the highest defensive contract of all-time. Currently Von Miller’s 6 year, $114.1M contract ($19M AAV) holds the high mark, including $41.6M thru 2 years, & $60.6M through 3. Donald should be inline to surpass all of these milestones, as well as Ndamukong Suh’s $59M guaranteed at signing, and Miller’s $70M in practical guarantees.

Khalil Mack, DE, Raiders

Projection: No deal, franchise tagged in 2019

Mack has cashed in 40.5 sacks, 303 tackles, and 10 forced fumbles, in 64 games since the Raiders selected him #5 overall back in 2014. Like Donald above, all signs point to him putting pen to the largest defensive contract ever. With that said - it’s looking more and more like the Raiders simply can’t (or won’t) afford a deal of this magnitude in the near future, putting Mack on a fast track for a 2019 franchise tag.

Mack should be seeking at least $65M guaranteed at signing, and $80M over a 4-year period for his next deal, whether in Oakland (Vegas) or not.

Le’Veon Bell, RB, Steelers

Projection: No deal, free agent in 2019

With running back guarantees (and overall cash payments) down almost 50% over the past 7 years, Bell could have done plenty worse than his the $26.6M his back-to-back franchise tags are set to pay him. The top recent multi-year contracts have offered much less over the first 2 seasons:

LeSean McCoy: $21M
Devonta Freeman $18.2M
Jerick Mckinnon: $16M
Lamar Miller: $14M

Statistically speaking, Bell’s rushing & receiving numbers over the past two seasons against the four above mentioned players puts him around 48% better, placing his calculated market value just under $12M. A 3rd franchise tag in 2019 would mean almost $21M for Bell, an absurd figure for a running back in one season.

Bell will need at least $36M over a 3-year span, with at least $24M of that fully guaranteed, as Freeman’s deal scored him $17M guaranteed at signing, with another $5M available. He’ll want more than Pittsburgh can offer, and he’ll likely have to find it elsewhere in 2019.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers

Projection: The Moon

Rodgers’ likely cracked open a beer in Kirk Cousins’ honor this March when he signed his fully guaranteed 3 year contract in Minnesota. The writing is now on the wall for the Packers’ future HOF QB, as recent signings for Cousins & Garoppolo have vaulted his calculated market value to $30M, but more importantly, may have also paved the way for 4 years of guarantees - something that just doesn’t happen in NFL veteran contracts.

Yes, recent injuries are a concern, and the loss of favorite target Jordy Nelson is also a bit of a red flag to Rodgers’ future success, but the 34 year old has done more than enough to warrant a top of the market deal. He’s sitting on a calculated projection of 4 years, $120M in new money, & should be targeting at least 3 years, $90M of that to be fully guaranteed.

Matt Ryan, QB, Falcons

Projection: 5 years, $148M ($87M guaranteed at signing)

Statistically speaking, Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers are within striking distance of each over over the past few seasons, putting both inline for historic pay days over the coming months. With Ryan 2 years younger (32) than Rodgers, it’s plausible to assume he’ll be the breadwinner in this horse race, but all signs point to his figure coming in at or just above the recent $84M in guarantees that Kirk Cousins was just awarded.

Should he push to cash in though, it can be easily argued that his numbers and consistency are well above Matthew Stafford’s, and on par with Rodgers’, which means $90M+ in full guarantees, over the first three season.

Odell Beckham Jr, WR, Giants

Projection: Trade

Beckham already appears poised to hold out for a new contract, a decision most believe is the right move. But coming off of a season where teams like the Chiefs, Rams, & Eagles showed that offenses with depth, and role players (i.e. the Patriots way), might be the new norm, the Giants should be reluctant to throw historic money at their one young weapon, especially with an aging quarterback, a non-existent running game, and questions at the other receiving slots.

Yes he’s as dynamic a receiver as the league has to offer when healthy, but his value on the trade block might be just as useful to the Giants over the long-term. Financially speaking, Beckham’s production on the field has been projecting to a deal worth $17.2M per year, which tops Antonio Brown’s high AAV mark.

Zack Martin, OG, Cowboys

Projection: 5 years, $68M ($32M guaranteed)

Martin’s first four seasons went from great, to greater, to greatest, to greatestest. He was already set to cash in handsomely before the Jaguars rewarded Andrew Norwell with a $13.3M AAV this free agency. This becomes the new baseline value for Martin as he enters his 5th-year option season with the Cowboys ($9.341M). The 27-year old will be seeking $30M+ in upfront guarantees, all in the first 2 years. 

Jadeveon Clowney, OLB/DE, Texans

Projection: No deal, franchise tag in 2019

After struggling to find the field to begin his career, Clowney has really put together a nice resume heading into his 5th-year option season ($12.3M) with the Texans. His production has gotten exponentially better over the past three seasons, capping off at 9.5 sacks, 60 tackles and 2 forced fumbles in 2017.

But the numbers likely forthcoming for Aaron Donald, and eventually Khalil Mack might be suppressing Houston’s urge to lock in Clowney long term right now, as the 25-year-old holds a $16.6M calculated market value for his efforts. The waiting game might backfire on Houston though should he put together another productive season in 2018, forcing his value to the top of the defensive contract list. 

Brandin Cooks, WR, Rams

Projection: 4 years, $56M ($34M guaranteed at signing)

Cooks will join his 3rd team in 4 years per his recent trade to Los Angeles this month, despite averaging 75 catches, of 1,130+ yards, & 8 TDs per year over the past three seasons. He joins a versatile Rams offense where his role & numbers are likely to be reduced - but his success rate is likely to increase.

Los Angeles has already expressed interest in extending the 24-year-old, and Jarvis Landry’s recent extension with the Browns paints a pretty nice picture of what that deal might have to look like. His $15.5M calculated market value derives from the Chiefs overpayment of Sammy Watkins, and the Browns slight overpay for Landry, and might be too rich for the Rams’ young, depth-necessary offense. In light of this, we slot his projection at $14M per year, with 60% of the deal guaranteed at sign.

Dallas Keuchel, SP, Astros

Current Valuation: $20.6M

After back to back elite seasons in 2014-15, Keuchel has yet put together a full, electric year since. With that said, he’s held a sub-3 ERA 3 times in the past 4 years, with a 1.1 WHIP and nearly 8 Ks per 9 innings in that span. The 30-year old has ace stuff when healthy, & might prove too rich for Houston going forward.

Honorable Mention: Clayton Kershaw (opt-out, Dodgers, 31), David Price (opt-out, Red Sox, 33), Drew Pomeranz (Red Sox, 29), Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks, 28)

» More: Free Agents | Options

Andrew Miller, RP, Indians

Current Valuation: $17.9M

Now 32, Miller and his versatile set of weapons continues to be one of the most “un-hittable” options in the middle of a game. Miller is tough to evaluate, as he averages over an inning per outing, nearly 2Ks per outing, a 1.45 ERA, and 0.75 WHIP per outing over the past 2 seasons. Unthinkable numbers, nearly 25% better than any of the recently signed closers. This places his calculated value at a whopping $18M, a ridiculous number for a middle reliever - but proof that it will cost plenty to bring him into your clubhouse next December. The $15M mark is a more likely ceiling.

Honorable Mention: David Robertson (NYY, 32), A.J. Ramos (Mets, 31), Greg Holland (Cardinals, 32)

» More: Free Agents | Options

Craig Kimbrel, CL, Red Sox

Current Valuation: $16.5M

The closer market is deep next offseason, but at just 29 years of age and still remarkable consistent in terms of production, Kimbrel gets the slight edge as the best available. He averaged 1.8 Ks per inning in 2017, while posting 35 saves, a 1.43 ERA, and a ridiculous 0.68 WHIP. It’s tough to imagine Boston letting him walk, but the payday will be lucrative.

Honorable Mention: Zach Britton (Orioles, 30), Cody Allen (Indians, 29), Jeurys Familia (Mets, 28), Kelvin Herrera (Royals, 28)

» More: Free Agents | Options

Yasmani Grandal, C, Dodgers

Current Valuation: $9M

He’s gotten increasingly better in each of the past 4 seasons, sacrificing a bit of power production last year, for a raised average (.250). The 29-year-old could be a hit-a-game candidate for the next few seasons, and should be seeking a big of a jump up from his near $8M salary in 2018.

Honorable Mention: Jonathan Lucroy (Athletics, 31), Martin Maldonado (Angels, 31)

» More: Free Agents | Options

Joe Mauer, 1B, Twins

Current Valuation: $13.2M

Mauer had a really nice bounce-back season in 2017, pumping out 160 hits, 36 doubles, 71 RBIs, an average north of .300 and an OPS north of .800. At 34, teams won’t be chomping at the bit to sign him to a multi-year blockbuster, but his recent numbers do put him in position to cash in a bit.

Honorable Mention: Lucas Duda (Royals, 32), Adrian Gonzalez (NYM, 35)

» More: Free Agents | Options

Brian Dozier, 2B, Twins

Current Valuation: $20.2M

His past two year averages (166 hits, 32 doubles, 38 homers, 96 RBIs, and an .871 OPS) make him a legitimate Top 3 free agent. Toss in that he’s only 30, and plays a middle-infield position, and he’ll draw plenty of interest should Minnesota be priced out.

Honorable Mention: D.J. LeMahieu (Rockies, 29), Daniel Murphy (Nationals, 33),  Eduardo Nunez (opt-out, Red Sox, 31), Josh Harrison (opt-out, Pirates, 31)

» More: Free Agents | Options

Manny Machado, SS, Orioles

Current Valuation: $26M

The 25-year-old had a less efficient 2017 (.259 average, .782 OPS), but the production (163 hits, 33 doubles, 33 homers, 95 RBIs) was still plenty. He’ll hit free agency in the prime of his career, and it’s perfectly possible offers at the $30M per year mark are in his future.

Honorable Mention: Freddy Galvis (Padres, 28), Jordy Mercer (Pirates, 31), Adeiny Hechavarria (Rays, 28)

» More: Free Agents | Options

Josh Donaldson, 3B, Blue Jays

Current Valuation: $27.1M

Yes he’s 32, yes he’s coming off a 2017 injury, but Donaldson has proven to be consistently durable, and overly productive in 6+ seasons with Oakland and Toronto. His $23M salary in 2018 to avoid arbitration is just a foundation for what may come. He’ll fall into Brian Dozier’s tier this winter.

Honorable Mention: Mike Moustakas (opt-out, Royals, 30), Pablo Sandoval (Giants, 31), Chase Headley (Padres, 33), Adrian Beltre (Rangers, 38)

» More: Free Agents | Options

Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals

Current Valuation: $31M

Many say $400M. Many say the Yankees. It’s tough to see either happening at this point quite honestly. It should go without question that Harper (25), is in prime position to reset the batter’s pay market. But with up and down production, over the past 3 seasons, his calculated value is on par with Miggy Cabrera’s current $31M AAV.

Furthermore, no player is interested in being locked in to a 10-year contract anymore, so it’s fair to expect that a 10 year, $400M contract may be “signed”, but that Harper will have the ability to opt out after 4-5 years, $175M-$200M. Plenty to keep an eye on here over the next few months.

Honorable Mention: A.J. Pollock (Diamondbacks, 30), Marwin Gonzalez, Astros, 29), Andrew McCutchen (Giants, 31), Adam Jones (Orioles, 32)

» More: Free Agents | Options