Scott AllenMarch 06, 2023

Kurt Kitayama wins the Arnold Palmer Invitational earning himself his first PGA Tour victory and $3.6 million. This brings his 2023 on-course earnings to $5.05 million (now 4th highest for the 2023 season) and nearly doubles his career on-course earnings to $7.77 million. 

Arnold Palmer Invitational Top 5

1. Kurt Kitayama: $3,600,000

T2. Harry English, Rory McIlroy: $1,780,000

T4. Tyrrell Hatton, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay: $800,000

Full Results

2023 Tournament Earnings Leaders Update

1. Jon Rahm: $9,934,779

2. Max Homa: $6,607,805

3. Scottie Scheffler: $5,986,495

4. Kurt Kitayama: $5,048,388

5. Keegan Bradley: $4,263,524

Full List

Keith SmithMarch 03, 2023

The Memphis Grizzlies have become the NBA’s preeminent “draft and develop” team. Of their current roster, only Steven Adams, Tyus Jones and Luke Kennard didn’t begin their NBA careers as Grizzlies. Memphis believes in keeping their draft picks, selecting players with upside and high work ethic, and then coaching them up to get the most of their abilities.

Another thing the Grizzlies believe in? Locking up those players to long-term contracts.

In recent years, Memphis has reached extension agreements with Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke, and Steven Adams. That group of four, and presumably Desmond Bane (who will be extension-eligible to this summer), will be Grizzlies through at least 2024-25.

But there’s another player who Memphis has already extended once that could be up for another new deal before he hits free agency this summer. Let’s talk about the interesting case of Dillon Brooks.

The Veteran Extension

Brooks is in the final year of the three-year, $35 million extension he signed with Memphis in 2020. Brooks is now eligible to extend again through June 30. Here’s what that extension could look like:

    • 2023-24: $13,680,000
    • 2024-25: $14,774,400
    • 2025-26: $15,868,800
    • 2026-27: $16,963,200
    • Total: four years, $61,286,400

That’s the max Brooks can get in a veteran extension. It’s a 120% bump off his current salary of $11,400,000 with 8% raises in the following years.

That’s an average of about $15.3 million per season for Brooks. That $13.7 million for next season would see Brooks ranked as the 19th highest paid small forward in the NBA, just behind Doug McDermott and ahead of Nicolas Batum. If you extrapolate that out to all wings, Brooks would be the 45th highest paid wing next season at $13.7 million.

Re-signing with the Grizzlies as a free agent

Maybe Brooks looks at the landscape this summer and sees that there are somewhere between seven and 10 team projected to have considerable cap space. Then he looks at the free agent small forwards and sees that he ranks somewhere between the third- and fifth-best free agent small forward. That could push Brooks to wait to sign a new deal until free agency.

The max Brooks could get from the Grizzlies projects to look like the follow:

    • 2023-24: $33,500,000
    • 2024-25: $36,180,000
    • 2025-26: $38,860,000
    • 2026-27: $41,540,000
    • 2027-28: $44,220,000
    • Total: five years, $194,300,000

That’s the 25% of the cap maximum Brooks is eligible for as a player with six years of service. It also includes 8% raises off the projected first-year salary of $33.5 million.

Yes, that’s more than Brooks is going to get. He’s a good player, but a first-year salary of $33.5 million would make him the sixth highest paid small forward, behind Brandon Ingram and ahead of Michael Porter Jr. Of all wing players, he would rank 13th, again nestled between Ingram and Porter. Given his shooting struggles the last two seasons, that’s a bit rich for the Grizzlies.

Signing with another team as a free agent:

It probably wouldn’t make sense for Brooks to leave Memphis, as he’s comfortable there, plays a big role and the team is good. But if Brooks got wandering eyes, here’s the max another team could give him this summer:

    • 2023-24: $33,500,000
    • 2024-25: $35,175,000
    • 2025-26: $36,850,000
    • 2026-27: $38,525,000
    • Total: four years, $144,050,000

That’s the same 30% max in first-year salary, but it’s capped at 5% raises and only four years, as Brooks would be changing teams.

This would be over double what Brooks could get by locking in for an extension with Memphis. But this is still more than Brooks is gong to get as a free agent. As much as teams value 3&D wings (or maybe it should be “3”&D in Brooks’ case), that’s not where Brooks will fall salary-wise as a free agent.

Summary

Dillon Brooks is a good player, despite the shooting challenges of the past two seasons. However, Brooks recently turned 27, so there’s probably not much, if any, improvement still to come in his game. Maybe the shooting turns back around, but everything else what it is at this point. If the shooting doesn’t bounce back, that’s a major limiting factor for Brooks.

The reality is that Brooks’ value is probably higher to the Grizzlies than it would be to another team. Could a cap space team like Orlando, Detroit or Houston add him as a mid-career veteran that would give them an infusion of wing defense? Sure. But those teams have another needs they’ll probably focus on first. In other words: Brooks probably won’t be a priority free agent for any team out of the gates this summer.

There’s also the fact that Brooks is, let’s say, an interesting personality. He’s a top-tier irritant for opponents, and that’s putting it kindly. Brooks is also a high-end irrational confidence guy. It’s not uncommon to see Brooks on the floor with several All-Stars and feel like his thought process is “I got this!”.

The Grizzlies have figured out how to make that work to their advantage. They like that he gets under the skin of opposing wing scorers. And while he might get a little wild on offense, Memphis needs that, especially when Ja Morant and Desmond Bane are out of the game. It’s an important layer of unpredictability in an offense that relies on Morant’s skywalking excellence a bit more than is comfortable at times.

Locking in on a veteran extension that would see Brooks make just north of $15 million as an average salary seems like a fair deal for both him and the Grizzlies. The potential to make slightly more could be there this summer, but that would involve leveraging an outside offer against Memphis.

If the veteran extension isn’t quite enough, a compromise for Memphis and Brooks this summer could be something that looks like this:

    • 2023-24: $18,000,000
    • 2024-25: $16,560,000
    • 2025-26: $15,120,000
    • 2026-27: $13,680,000
    • Total: four years, $63,360,000

That’s a bit more total money as the Veteran Extension option for Brooks, and it gives him more money up front. Then, as he approaches his early 30s, the salary drops into what will likely be the Non-Taxpayer MLE range.

In this type of setup, Brooks wins immediately with a salary that would rank in the top-20 of small forwards and top-35 of all wings. The Grizzlies will be an over-the-cap team this offseason, but have a ton of space under the luxury tax for 2023-24. This is a good way to use some of that flexibility by giving Brooks an up-front bump for more team-friendly salaries in the later years.

No matter what, expect Memphis and Brooks to reach an agreement on a new deal. The Grizzlies aren’t in the habit of letting their players walk and Brooks should know his value is highest in Memphis. That’s a combination that rarely sees non-max players leave town.

Michael GinnittiFebruary 27, 2023
QB

Ryan Tanehill

Team: TEN | Age: 34

2023 Cap: $36,600,000

PRE 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $17.8M
PRE 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $17.8M
POST 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $27M
POST 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $27M
Tannehill is entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $27M (the traded value). A Pre June 1st trade or release opens up $17.8M of space - but do the Titans have a replacement plan?
RB

Joe Mixon

Team: CIN | Age: 26

2023 Cap: $12,761,754

PRE 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $7.2M
PRE 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $7.2M
POST 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $10M
POST 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $10M
Mixon’s overall production dipped last season after a career-best 2021 campaign. Samaje Perine held his own in a relief role, but is slated for free agency next season. Will the Bengals look to bring him back at a respectable price and save on Mixon’s big deal? There’s $7.2M cap to be freed up Pre 6/1, $10M if processed after. Mixon would carry cap hits of $10.1M, $10.3M with him to a new team if a trade is the way forward.
WR

Keenan Allen

Team: LAC | Age: 30

2023 Cap: $21,700,000

PRE 3/19 RELEASE SAVINGS: $14.8M
PRE 3/19 TRADE SAVINGS: $16.3M
POST 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $14M
POST 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $15.9M
Allen missed 7 costly games last season, but was on pace for his usual 100+ catch, 1,000+ yard, 6+ TD campaign prior to his injury. His cap hit soars to $21.7M next year, then $25.8M in 2024. $1.5M of his 2023 salary is fully guaranteed, but it seems plausible that the Chargers could secure a trade partner ($19M, $23.1M) if they sought a move. There's a $3.5M roster bonus due March 19th, but a trade prior to that would open up $16.3M of cap space.
TE

Logan Thomas

Team: WSH | Age: 31

2023 Cap: $8,675,000

PRE 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $5.175M
PRE 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $5.175M
POST 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $6.925M
POST 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $6.925M
Injuries & inconsistencies haven’t allowed Thomas to recreate his breakout 2020 season since then, and his contract is now right side up in terms of dead cap. The Commanders can open up $5.175M of space by moving on, but with a new QB likely coming into the picture, his veteran experience might be deemed too important to walk away from.
OT

Tyron Smith

Team: DAL | Age: 32

2023 Cap: $17,605,000

PRE 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $9.595M
PRE 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $9.595M
POST 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $13.6M
POST 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $13.6M
Smith enters a contract year, set to earn $13.6M against a $17.6M hit. He was moved to the right side of the line after returning from injury, making way for Tyler Smith (no relation) to take on the blindside role. There’s $9.5M of cap space to open up here if the Cowboys decide to move on, but it still seems like a big if right now.
G

Andrus Peat

Team: NO | Age: 29

2023 Cap: $18,371,000

PRE 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $1.3M
PRE 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $1.3M
POST 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $11.825M
POST 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $11.825M
Back-to-back restructures keep this contract difficult to move off from, but it seems a foregone conclusion anyway. A Pre 6/1 release only frees up $1.3M of cap space, while a Post 6/1 designation would open up $11.825M. The Saints have had players agree to base salary pay cuts in order to help facilitate a Post 6/1 move, and this feels like one of those situations. Dropping Peat’s deal down to the minimum for 2023 lowers his cap hit to $7.71M, a much more tenable number to have to carry through June 1st.
C

Andre James

Team: LV | Age: 25

2023 Cap: $6,980,000

PRE 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $5.06M
PRE 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $5.06M
POST 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $6.5M
POST 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $6.5M
James enters a contract year in 2023, having started 13 games for the Raiders last season. Vegas can open up $5M of cap by moving on, paving the way for 2022 3rd rounder Dylan Parham to take over the reins.
DL

Quinton Jefferson

Team: SEA | Age: 29

2023 Cap: $6,485,000

PRE 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $4.485M
PRE 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $4.485M
POST 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $4.485M
POST 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $4.485M
One of Jefferson or Shelby Harris probably falls off of this roster for cap purposes as the Seahawks look to get younger and faster on their D-Line. Both players had respectable 2022 campaigns, and with Jefferson on an expiring contract that carries $4.2M of cash/cap to be moved, he makes the list as a potential trade target. Especially as he’s spent time on the interior in 3-4s and on the edge in 4-3 defenses.
ED

Frank Clark

Team: KC | Age: 29

2023 Cap: $28,675,000

PRE 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $19.6M
PRE 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $19.6M
POST 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $19.6M
POST 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $19.6M
Clark signed a restructured extension this past March to lower his cap hit and stay in the fold. He responded with a Frank Clark type season (5 sacks, 40 tackles), but now sits with a $28.675M cap hit for the upcoming campaign. With Chris Jones poised for a new deal, can the Chiefs extend Clark again? Will they bite the bullet on a restructure that pushes dead cap down the line? This is a situation to watch - and many teams will be.
LB

Eric Kendricks

Team: MIN | Age: 30

2023 Cap: $11,430,000

PRE 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $9.5M
PRE 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $9.5M
POST 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $9.5M
POST 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $9.5M
He can still fill up a stat-line with the best of them, but the Vikings need to begin the process of getting younger (and subsequently cheaper) especially on the defensive side of the ball. Kendricks’ expiring contract can open up $9.5M of much needed cap space for Minnesota, who may address this position fairly early in the April draft.
CB

Byron Jones

Team: MIA | Age: 31

2023 Cap: $18,351,000

PRE 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $3.547M
PRE 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $3.547M
POST 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $13.6M
POST 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $13.6M
The guarantees fall off of this massive contract for the first time this offseason. With Xavien Howard now under contract, and Jones admitting that he may never return to full health, it feels like the Dolphins are at a point where Miami must move off of this deal, despite its minimal immediate savings ($3.5M). A Post 6/1 release./retirement can open up $13.6M.
S

Chuck Clark

Team: BAL | Age: 27

2023 Cap: $6,768,333

PRE 3/19 RELEASE SAVINGS: $3.4M
PRE 3/19 TRADE SAVINGS: $4.14M
POST 3/19 RELEASE SAVINGS: $2.3M
POST 3/19 TRADE SAVINGS: $2.9M
It stands to reason that Kyle Hamilton is ready to take over this role full-time, but Clark's financials don't immediately scream cap casualty. Factor in $661k of fully guaranteed salary & a $1.1M roster bonus due March 19th, and there are plenty of reasons to think this one might not pan out. An early March trade seems more likely than any move.
S/T

Jason Sanders

Team: MIA | Age: 27

2023 Cap: $3,775,000

PRE 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $3.775M
PRE 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $3.775M
POST 6/1 RELEASE SAVINGS: $3.775M
POST 6/1 TRADE SAVINGS: $3.775M
Sanders made less than 80% of his field goal attempts while going 41/44 on PATs last season. He’s now had back to back inconsistent years from longer range, putting his $3.775M salary on notice.
Scott AllenFebruary 26, 2023

Charles Howell III wins the first LIV Golf event of 2023 at Mayakoba earning individually earning himself $4 million, plus $750,000 for the team bonus. Howell III's career LIV Golf earnings (individual + team) is now at $5.4 million.

Mayakoba Top 5

1. Charles Howell III: $4,000,000

2. Peter Uihlein: $2,125,000

3. Branden Grace: $1,500,000

4. Paul Casey: $1,050,000

5. Brendan Steele, Cameron Smith: $887,500

Full Results

Team Earnings

1. Crushers GC (Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau, Charles Howell III, Anirban Lahiri): $3,000,000 ($750,00 each)

2. 4 Aces GC (Dustin Johnson, Pat Perez, Patrick Reed, Peter Uihlein): $1,500,000 ($375,000 each)

3. Torque GC (Joaquin Niemann, Sebastian Munoz, Mito Pereira, David Puig): $500,000 ($125,000 each)

Scott AllenFebruary 26, 2023

Chris Kirk wins The Honda Classic by playoff with Eric Cole earning himself $1.512 million. This brings his 2023 season earnings to $2.64 million and his career on-course earnings to $24.65 million. 

The Honda Classic Top 5

1. Chris Kirk: $1,512,000

2. Eric Cole: $915,600

3. Tyler Duncan: $579,600

4. Ryan Gerard: $411,600

5. Ben Martin, Sepp Straka, Ben Taylor, Shane Lowry, Justin Suh: $288,120

Full Results

2023 Tournament Earnings Leaders Update

1. Jon Rahm: $9,864,750

2. Max Homa: $6,282,805

3. Scottie Scheffler: $5,186,495

4. Keegan Bradley: $3,778,524

5. Nick Taylor: $3,048,374

Full List

Michael GinnittiFebruary 20, 2023

With the official NFL announcement that the 2023 league salary cap maximum will be set at $224,800,000, we now have confirmation on the official tag non-exclusive tag numbers for the upcoming season as well.

The Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag
When a player is offered a non-exclusive tag, he is still able to negotiate with other organizations. If an offer sheet is submitted and signed by the tagged play, the previous team must match the offer to keep the player. Otherwise, the player will officially sign with the new team, who will send two first round picks to the losing team in order to complete the transaction.

The Exclusive Franchise Tag
The exclusive tag is calculated much differently than the non-exclusive figure, in that it is represented by the Top 5 salaries at the respective position once the restricted free agency period ends (April). Additionally, the player is not allowed to negotiate with other teams at any point under the exclusive tag. If the player is traded after signing the exclusive tag, there is no required trade compensation. The losing team can acquire whatever package of players and/or draft picks they wish to process the transaction.

The Transition Tag
This offering has become less frequent in past offseasons, and is calculated based on the Top 10 salaries for a respective position, making them slightly lower than their corresponding franchise tender. Players are free to negotiate with other teams on a transition tag, and the previous team has the right to match an offer sheet that is signed. However, no draft pick compensation will be transerred should the losing team decline to match the offer sheet.

The Second Tag Scenario
If a player was tagged in the previous season and are offered another tag this offseason, the value of that tag will either be 120% of last year's tag, or the new figure for their respective position - whichever is greater. If a player is tagged a third straight offseason, their new tag value will represent 140% of the previous year's figure.

Important Dates & Notes

  • Teams will have the ability to tag one pending unrestricted free agent from their 2022 roster starting on February 21st, 2023 through 4PM ET on March 7th.
  • Tagged players then have until July 15th, 2023 to negotiate and complete a multi-year contract extension. Once that date passes, the player must play the upcoming season on a 1-year contract - through there are no restrictions to how much or little compensation the player can receive.
  • If 120% of the player's salary from last season is greater than the tag number they will be tagged at the higher figure for the upcoming season.
  • Teams also have the ability to rescind a tag that has not yet been signed, with no ramifications.
  • Some players (Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, etc...) have language in their contract barring them from receiving a tag offer this offseason. This is becoming more and more common.
  • Each team may only tag one pending free agent in a given year. This includes any tag (meaning a team cannot offer a franchise tag to one player and a transition tag to another player, it's one or the other).

2023 Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag & Transition Tag Figures

Position Franchise Tag Transition Tag
Quarterback $32,416,000 $29,504,000
Running Back $10,091,000 $8,429,000
Wide Receiver $19,743,000 $17,991,000
Tight End $11,345,000 $9,716,000
Offensive Lineman $18,244,000 $16,660,000
Defensive Tackle $18,937,000 $16,068,000
Defensive End $19,727,000 $17,452,000
Linebacker $20,926,000 $17,478,000
Cornerback $18,140,000 $15,791,000
Safety $14,460,000 $11,867,000
Kicker/Punter $5,393,000 $4,869,000

Notable 2023 Tag Candidates

Kaleb McGary (OT, ATL)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $18,244,000

This would be quite a story, as the Falcons declined McGary's $13.202M 5th year option for 2023 last May. He went on to post a career year, playing every snap last season. With a new QB likely coming on board, keeping an above average offensive line intact is a clear must, and McGary did enough in 2022 to at least consider throwing an overpriced tag at to keep all options on the table.

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)

Prediction: Exclusive Franchise Tag

Cost: $45.2M, but expected to be lower

After a few tumultuous offseasons trying to negotiate a long-term extension, it appears immiment that Jackson will be offered a tag by the Baltimore Ravens in the coming weeks. Exactly which tag will be the first detail to watch for. It's widely expected that Lamar will be offered the Exclusive Franchise Tag, currently estimated to account for $45.2M in 2023. This number comes with a few conditions. 1) Since the actual official exclusive tenders won't lock until April, the Ravens will be able to account for the non-exclusive price ($32.4M) until that happens. 2) Many of the top QB cap hits are going to be restructured (or released) in the coming weeks, largely changing the end result for this exclusive pricepoint. It's perfectly plausible that Lamar's exclusive tag price is only slightly larger than the non-exclusive figure when it's all said and done.

In this regard, it seems a no-brainer to go this route with their franchise QB, especially if a trade out of Baltimore is at least an option this Spring. The Ravens will be seeking a trade price that far exceeds the two first round picks they would assume with a non-exclusive tag trade.

Tremaine Edmunds (LB, BUF)

Prediction: Possible Transition Tag

Cost: $17,478,000

Edmunds saved his best NFL season for his contract year, playing out a $12.7M 5th-year option in 2022. The Bills haven't been quiet about their eagerness to keep him, but Brandon Beane has done very little overpaying as Bills' GM to date. Edmunds isn't a $21M franchise tag candidate, but he's at least a consideration for the $17.4M transition tender this month, despite the fact that Buffalo currently sits about $20M in the red right now.

Jessie Bates III (S, CIN)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $15.5M (120% of last year's tag)

Bates wasn't thrilled about being tagged last year, and he held out as long as possible without missing game action, so another go around wouldn't be pretty. The Bengals also drafted safety Daxton Hill in the first round last spring, putting the writing on the wall that their plan was to reset at some point here. It's not improbable to question if the Bengals could tag Bates in order to trade him, but a two first round pick price point seems too rich for most NFL teams.

Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $10,091,000

Pollard has been the best running back on the Dallas roster for a few seasons now, so to see his rookie contract expire with such a devastating injury is extremely unfortunate. Pollard's recovery time is right around the draft, so he should be available for the majority of offseason workouts. Placing a 1 year guarantee on him seems the right move - regardless of the Cowboys' plans for Zeke Elliott this March.

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $13,117,200 (120% of last year's tag)

Schultz didn't put together quite the same year he posted in 2021, but the connection with Prescott is still clear and obvious. With that said, the late season injury to RB Tony Pollard seems to be a clear path toward him getting the Cowboys' tag this offseason, leaving Schultz headed for the open market.

Jawaan Taylor (OT, JAX)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $18,244,000

Don't get me wrong here: Taylor is going to get paid, and the Jaguars are likely trying to keep him in the fold as we speak. Jacksonville likely doesn't have the cap flexibility to warrant an $18M tag placeholder, but if they need to keep him off of the open market and away from what is expected to be massive offers from teams like Chicago, it's not the worst option. Taylor projects to a 4 year, $56M deal in our system.

Evan Engram (TE, JAX)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $11,345,000

Engram played out 2022 on what can be considered a "showcase" contract and is certainly looking to capitalize on a strong year this offseason, with a multi-year guarantee in sight. It stands to reason that the two sides aren't too far apart here in terms of extension numbers, so if time is the only issue, slapping an $11M placeholder on him makes a lot of sense. He's likely looking for Hunter Henry's $25M guaranteed here.

Dre'Mont Jones (DE, DEN)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $19,727,000

This quietly consistent former 3rd round pick finished 2022 with career highs across the board - despite seeing action in only 13 games. He entered 2022 as a near $8M per year player in our system, and is now on pace to bank a cap-adjusted version of Carl Lawson's 3 year, $45M deal. Denver can prolong the negotiation process with an expensive tag for now, then work to get him under contract before the March 15th league year.

Orlando Brown Jr. (LT, KC)

Prediction: 2nd Tag

Cost: $19,994,400 (120% of last year's tag)

For a top contending team living right up against the cap every year, this certainly isn't the most ideal outcome, but Brown simply hasn't played like the $24M per year tackle he wishes to be contractually. A 2nd tag puts him on a 2 year, $36.5M spread across 2022-2023, which aligns much more with his calculated value - despite the lack of cap flexibility. With no blidside replacement on their roster, using the tag as a placeholder until KC can formulate more options is at least a safe starting point.

Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $10,091,000

This was a hail mary longshot 12 months ago, especially after Jacobs' 5th-year option was declined. That option would have come with an $8M guarantee for 2023. It now seems a foregone conclusion that the Raiders will offer a $10.1M guarantee via the franchise tag.

Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $10,091,000

Barkley looked every bit the weapon in 2022 that he was out of the gate back in 2018, so it's easy to forget that he's had more down than up in 5 seasons. He'll be looking to broach the $12M+ mark on a 2-year guarantee, so starting with a $10.1M tag at least gives the Giants a chance to think more.

Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $32,416,000

It seems weird to tag the running back instead of the quarterback in this day and age, but the long story short here is that the Giants are probably hoping to see Saquon Barkley sign the tag and play on the 1-year tender for 2023, rather than lock him into the $13M+ per year extension he's rumored to be seeking. Jones remains an inconsistent QB1, but the Giants simply don't have a better option right now. What they do have is a front office & coaching staff that appear to be more than capable of building a roster and scheme that maximizes Jones' strengths. There's probably a $30M per year extension coming soon here.

Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $19,743,000

It would be eye-popping to see the Patriots put a number like this on an offensive weapon, but the WR market is thin this offseason, and Meyers' name has already been attached to quite a few teams. Hunter Renfrow's $16M+ deal is a likely starting point in free agency, with Christian Kirk's deal (+ a cap adjustment) extremely plausible. In other words, putting a $19.7M placeholder on Meyers and then placing him on the trade block might be good buiness for New England. So would keeping him.

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S, PHI)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $14,460,000

The Saints knew they were getting into a point of no return with Gardner-Johnson when it came to his next contract, and Philadelphia might be trending toward that direction now as well. There's a world where a $14.4M tag for the 25-year-old actually represents pretty good value, and that sounds like something Howie Roseman would be considering right now. He's a $13.3M player in our system, but there's a 5 year, $80M contract out there for him on the open market.

Geno Smith (QB, SEA)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $32,416,000

It still seems crazy, but it's also extremely inevitable at this point. Geno Smith is the best option for the Seahawks in 2023, who have financial flexibility for a 1-year tender like this. It's plausible that he and Daniel Jones sign similiar extensions this offseason, but nobody has warranted the very definition of what a franchise tag was created to be more in recent memory than Geno Smith in 2023.

Da'Ron Payne (DT, WAS)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $18,937,000

Payne finally started to put it together in 2022, the final year of his rookie contract, and his calculated value in our system sits just south of $20M per year, but the Commanders have already fed a lot of mouths on their defensive line, and they have plenty of other holes to fill if they seek to remain in divisional contention in the near future. Offering Payne a multi-year extension that provides team flexibility is the safer route here, but he likely walks into the open market this March.

Scott AllenFebruary 20, 2023

Jon Rahm, age 28, won his third event of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season and his tenth PGA Tour event of his career with the win at The Genesis Invitational. Rahm dominated throughout the entire weekend and he might just be getting started with a lot of the season left to play. There are more PGA Tour enhanced event and all four Majors still remain on the PGA Tour schedule.

With this recent win of $3.6 million, Rahm’s on-course official career earnings is now at $44.89 million, ranking him 19th All-time. With the known fact of the enhanced event money and Rahm seemingly being “in the zone” right now, he could see himself at or just outside of the Top-10 in on-course official event career earnings.

PGA Tour Career Wins

2016-17 Season

  • Farmers Insurance Open

2017-18 Season

  • CareerBuilder Challenge

2018-19 Season

  • Zurich Classic of New Orleans

2019-20 Season

  • BMW Championship
  • The Memorial Tournament

2020-21 Season

  • U.S. Open (2021)

2021-22 Season

  • Mexico Open at Vidanta

2022-23 Season

  • Sentry Tournament of Champions
  • The American Express
  • The Genesis Invitational

2022-23 PGA Tour Season

Rahm’s 2022-23 PGA Tour season has gotten off to an unbelievable start. Of the seven events he’s competed in he’s won 3 and finished in the Top-10 of each event. He’s earned a total of $9,864,750 through seven events. For context, the highest single-season on-course official event earner was Scottie Scheffler last season, having accumulated $14,046,909 through 25 events.

The CJ CUP in South Carolina: 

  • T4, $462,000 

Hero World Challenge:

  • T8, $112,500

Sentry Tournament of Champions: 

  • 1st, $2,700,000

The American Express: 

  • 1st, $1,440,000

Farmers Insurance Open: 

  • T7, $282,750

WM Phoenix Open: 

  • 3rd, $1,380,000

The Genesis Invitational: 

  • 1st, $3,600,000

Earnings Outlook

John Rahm seems to have been in the mix since he joined the PGA Tour. When looking at the top earnings golfers through a certain threshold of events played, Rahm finds himself within the top five of each threshold and now finds himself as the highest earning golfer through 137 events played.

First 25 Events

Jon Rahm is the 2nd-highest earning golfer through his first 50 official events played in the PGA Tour.

  1. Cameron Young: $6,308,211
  2. Jon Rahm: $4,980,651
  3. Collin Morikawa: $3,672,939
  4. Will Zalatoris: $3,622,172
  5. Keegan Bradley: $3,432,200

First 50 Events

Jon Rahm is the 3rd-highest earning golfer through his first 50 official events played in the PGA Tour.

  1. Will Zalatoris: $13,340,769
  2. Collin Morikawa: $11,886,526
  3. Jon Rahm: $10,301,702
  4. Rory McIlroy: $10,215,099
  5. Jordan Spieth: $7,492,643

First 75 Events

Jon Rahm is the 3rd-highest earning golfer through his first 75 official events played in the PGA Tour.

  1. Collin Morikawa: $18,930,575
  2. Rory McIlroy: $16,200,743
  3. Jon Rahm: $16,110,072
  4. Jordan Spieth: $16,086,406
  5. Scottie Scheffler: $14,901,993

First 100 Events

Jon Rahm is the 3rd-highest earning golfer through his first 100 official events played in the PGA Tour.

  1. Rory McIlroy: $28,303,413
  2. Jordan Spieth: $25,062,204
  3. Jon Rahm: $24,702,274
  4. Tiger Woods: $21,049,308
  5. Xander Schauffele: $19,613,409

First 125 Events

Jon Rahm is the 3rd-highest earning golfer through his first 100 official events played in the PGA Tour.

  1. Rory McIlroy: $35,539,880
  2. Jordan Spieth: $34,662,349
  3. Jon Rahm: $33,684,801
  4. Brooks Koepka: $30,342,809
  5. Tiger Woods: $30,246,330

First 137 Events

Jon Rahm is the highest earning golfer through his first 137 official events played in the PGA Tour.

  1. Jon Rahm: $44,888,795
  2. Rory McIlroy: $38,218,572
  3. Jordan Spieth: $37,123,584
  4. Tiger Woods: $35,944,855
  5. Brooks Koepka: $31,396,536

 

How does Rahm’s $44.89 million through 137 events compare to that of the other golfers?

Career Earnings

As mentioned above, Rahm now finds himself with $44,888,792, 19th All-Time, in on-course official career earnings with the addition of the $3.6 million prize for winning The Genesis Invitational. 

How does Jon Rahm compare to the current Top-5 All-Time on-course official career earnings?

 

A few of the players above are either retired or no longer active because they’ve decided to leave the PGA Tour for the LIV Golf tour. So how does Rahm’s career earnings compare to active PGA Tour golfers that currently have accumulated more than Rahm in their careers?

 

How does Rahm compare from an average standpoint?

#1 - Tiger Woods played in 372 events with an average of $325,147 per event. 

#2 - Phil Mickelson played in 658 events with an average of $144,308 per event. 

#3 - Dustin Johnson played in 307 events with an average of $243,964 per event. 

#6 - Rory McIlroy played in 223 events with an average of $306,313 per event. 

#19 - Jon Rahm has only played 137 events with an average of $327,655 per event.

Major Championships

Jon Rahm has won one Major tournament (U.S. Open 2021) and with the way he has been playing this could be his year to win a second or more.

Jon Rahm’s odds, per FanDuel Sportsbook, of winning a particular Major this year one month ago (after his win at The American Express) compared to today (Feb 20, 2022):

  • Masters Tournament: +1000 → +750
  • PGA Championship: +1300 → +950
  • U.S. Open: +1200 → +950
  • The Open Championship: +1200 → +1000

With each tournament Rahm plays in and does well in I’d expect those odds to quickly shrink and rightfully so. 

Note: Winners of these tournaments last season won $2.7 million, $2.7 million, $3.15 million and $2.5 million respectively.

Final Thoughts

As seen through the 25, 50, 75, 100, 125 and 137 events played thresholds, Jon Rahm has been here the whole time, but we are witnessing him taking his game to a completely new level. Regardless of what you want to call it, “in the zone” or “in his prime,” Rahm is seeing the course, swinging his clubs, seeing the game itself in a completely different way than other golfers right now. And to top it all off he’s been consistent. He hasn’t had a poor tournament yet when it comes to his finishing positions. While he has struggled out of the gate on some, he has quickly rebounded and figured out what he has needed to do to slowly creep back up the leaderboards and be within contention.

With the expansion of the enhanced events and prize money being elevated, golfers will now have more opportunities to accumulate their career earnings at a quicker rate than those of the past. However, these golfers, including Rahm, still need to show up and perform each and every event. The prize pool just gives them that much more incentive to do what it takes to move up the leaderboard each week. It’s going to be fascinating to look at the above trajectories at the end of this season (and seasons to come) to see how Rahm tracks compared to the top two earners, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy.

If you are just an overall sports fan, casual golf fan, avid golf fan that hasn’t had a chance to see Rahm in action yet, take some time to watch or catch a glimpse of him while you can. Something special is happening right before our eyes similar to Scottie Scheffler’s season last year, but I think this is a different kind of special.

 

Scott AllenFebruary 19, 2023

Jon Rahm wins his third tournament of the 2023 season and earns an additional $3.6 million. Rahm brings his 2023 season earnings to $9.86 million and is now the highest earner in 2023. His on-course career earnings are now $44.89 million bringing him to 19th all-time.

Max Homa had an up-and-down 4th Round finishing with a 68, but still ended up finishing 2nd. Patrick Cantlay shot a 67 and finished 3rd while Will Zalatoris surged up the leaderboard on the last day shooting a 64 to get himself into 4th place. 

The Genesis Invitational Top 5

1. Jon Rahm: $3,600,000

2. Max Homa: $2,180,000

3. Patrick Cantlay: $1,380,000

4. Will Zalatoris: $980,000

5. Keith Mitchell: $820,000 

Full Results

2023 Tournament Earnings Leaders Update

1. Jon Rahm: $9,864,750

2. Max Homa: $6,282,805

3. Scottie Scheffler: $5,186,495

4. Keegan Bradley: $3,778,524

5. Nick Taylor: $2,943,945

Full List

Michael GinnittiFebruary 18, 2023

Aaron Rodgers isn't the only player trending toward a mid-March trade this offseason. Our look at 10 notable names who might be moved in the coming weeks.

Aaron Rodgers (QB, Packers)

It’s looking more and more like Rodgers & the Packers will officially part ways this time around (until of course it doesn’t).

Assuming this thing needs to get done quickly (before June 1st for contract purposes), the Packers will take on $40,313,568 of dead cap in 2023, stemming from 3 different already paid out bonuses, and a contract restructure prior to 2019. This dead cap is 100% locked in. It can’t be reduced. It can’t be transferred to a new team. The only chance for relief is a Post June 1st trade, which would split that $40.3M figure into $15.8M this year, $24.4M next.

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $15,790,000 (fully guaranteed at $58.3M cash)

2024: $32,541,667 (non-guaranteed $49.3M cash)
2025: $51,151,667 (non-guaranteed $20.9M cash)
2026: $45,291,667 (non-guaranteed $15.05M cash)

The above contract assumes that the 2023 option bonus is exercised by the receiving team, who would then be on the hook for either $43.725M of dead cap after the season, or another $47M option bonus for 2024.

Justin Fields (QB, Bears)

The Fields trade conversation won’t go away until the Bears are no longer on the clock in the upcoming draft. Chicago holds leverage from every angle this offseason (cap space, draft stock, rookie QB contract). Fields enters Year 3 of his rookie deal, set to earn $2.3M against a $5.1M cap hit. A Pre June 1st trade would actually represent a $395,000 cap loss for Chicago, but that pales in comparison to what they’d be acquiring in trade compensation.

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $2,375,632 (guaranteed)
2024: $3,233,448 (guaranteed)
2025: 5th-year option (decided on May of 2024)

Jalen Ramsey (CB, Rams)

The idea of Ramsey leaving LA has bounced around the metaverse a few times, so it’s at least worth building out here. Ramsey enters Year 4 of a 6 year, $114M deal, set to earn $17M against a $25.2M cap hit. A Pre June 1st trade can free up $5.6M of that cap, leaving behind $19.6M of dead cap (signing bonus + a 2021 restructure).

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $17,000,000 ($7.5M fully guaranteed)
2024: $18,500,000 ($0 guaranteed, $4M March roster bonus)

2025: $19,500,000 ($0 guaranteed, $4M March roster bonus)

Ramsey is essentially on a 1 year, $17M contract whether he stays in LA, or goes elsewhere.

Brandin Cooks (WR, Texans)

A move that probably should have happened at the deadline (with the Cowboys very much in mind here), Cooks still isn’t a lock to me moved elsewhere this offseason, thanks to a fully guaranteed $18M salary for 2023. If it gets done, a Pre June 1st trade means $16.2M of dead cap staying with Houston, freeing up $10.2M of space.

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $18,352,932 ($18M fully guaranteed)
2024: $16,500,000 ($0 guaranteed, $3M March roster bonus)

It’s a 1 year, $18.5M contract on its face, but $14.4M of the 2023 cap hit can be freed up with a base salary restructure + 3 void years, so it fits the bill for a contender.

Chuck Clark (S, Ravens)

Clark was a trade candidate last offseason after Baltimore added Marcus Williams via free agency, & Kyle Hamilton at the draft, but they kept him on board to slow-play the process. That still may be the case as Clark enters a contract year, set to earn $3.64M against a $6.2M cap hit.

But if the Ravens look to get some trade value here, a move would leave behind $2.6M of dead cap, freeing up $3.64M.

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $3,640,000 ($1.16M roster bonus due early March)

Donovan Smith (OT, Buccaneers)

The Bucs will face some pain this offseason as they morph into life without TB12. Moving on from your starting left tackle isn’t an ideal place to start, but the $9.95M of space to be had is certainly much needed. The 29 year old is entering a contract year, set to earn $15.25M cash against a $17.9M cap hit.

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $15,250,000 ($0 guaranteed)

Smith would be in line for a new deal per a trade, currently projecting toward a 3 year, $60M contract in our system.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Cardinals)

Hopkins has hit the trade hot stove of late, though that’s cooled a bit of late. The deal holds $34.3M over the next two seasons, but none of it is guaranteed, and Hopkins is likely looking to reup to a price point that more aligns with Tyreek, Davante, etc… If the Cardinals aren’t willing to oblige, there’s $8.15M of cap to be freed up with a Pre 6/1 trade out of town.

The receiving team would take on: 

2023: $19,450,000 (non-guaranteed)
2024: $14,915,000 (non-guaranteed)

In terms of new money, Hopkins projects to a 3 year, $70M extension in our system.

Leonard Williams (DE, Giants)

After 2 extremely productive seasons in 2020-2021, Williams’ production dipped off slightly - mostly stemming from 5 weeks missed. There are a few reasons Williams finds himself on this list, and his inability to make a difference on the field isn’t one of them. 1) The Giants have a LOT of mouths to feed offensively. 2) Dexter Lawrence is in his extension window. 3) Williams is on an expiring contract with a loaded cap figure. It just may be the wrong time to extend Williams on this roster, making him a very attractive trade candidate this March. He holds a 1 year, $18M (non-guaranteed) contract if moved, freeing up over $12M of cap for the Giants.

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $18,000,000 (non-guaranteed)

Frank Clark (DE, Chiefs)

Clark signed a restructured extension this past March to lower his cap hit and stay in the fold. He responded with a Frank Clark type season (5 sacks, 40 tackles), but now sits with a $30.1M cap hit for the upcoming campaign. With Chris Jones poised for a new deal, can the Chiefs extend Clark again? Will they bite the bullet on a restructure that pushes dead cap down the line? A Pre 6/1 trade leaves behind $9M of dead cap, freeing up $21.1M of cap space for KC.

The receiving team would take on:
2023: $22,500,000 (non-guaranteed)

The 29-year-old projects to a 2 year, $25M extension in our system.

Ed Oliver (DT, Bills)

Oliver enters 2023 on a fully guaranteed $10.753M 5th year option. The #9 overall selection back in 2019 has made minimal impact in 62 games, putting his future in Buffalo very much in question. Will the Bills retain some of the salary in order to find a trade partner this March?

Michael GinnittiFebruary 17, 2023

Michael Jordan turns 60-years-old today, a milestone he celebrated by processing a record-breaking $10M donation to Make-a-Wish America.

We’ll take a quick glance back at the career contracts of Jordan on the court, which, as you might imagine, pale in comparison to what he’s ascertained as a brand off of it.

The Rookie Deal

Jordan entered the NBA as the #3 overall selection back in 1984 (Hakeem Olajuwon, Sam Bowie for those asking). On September 12th, 1984 he signed a 7 year, $6.3M rookie contract with the Chicago Bulls, including a $250,000 signing bonus & a $455,000 base salary for his inaugural season. While reports on this deal are scarce, it doesn’t appear that Jordan was in line to make $1M in any of his first 7 seasons under these terms, leaving us to believe that the contract was heavily incentive-laden.

Jordan would stay on this deal through the 1987-88 season before extending, earning an estimated $2.76M for his efforts. 

The 1988 Extension

On September 20th, 1988 the Bulls did right by Jordan, voiding out the final three years of his rookie contract to get him on an 8 year, $25.7M deal. The new contract included a base salary of $2M for the 1988-89 season, more than double the $880,000 he was set to earn on his previous deal. He would go on to earn $14.1M over the next 5 seasons, before “retiring” on October 6th, 1993.

Jordan would stay away from basketball until March 18th, 1995, returning to finish out this second contract with the Bulls, who retained his rights throughout.

The Correction Contracts

In the 1996 offseason, Michael Jordan was an unrestricted free agent. So how did the Bulls respond to the possibility of losing their franchise star? By offering him a 1 year contract for $30.1M - despite the league salary cap being $24.3M that season.

How was this possible? Like now, teams could use rights to re-sign their own players past the salary cap threshold. The difference? There were no maximum contracts in the NBA. The Bulls could offer Jordan whatever they wanted, and in this essence - they did exactly that.

Next offseason, the two sides found themselves in a similar position, with Jordan on the open market, but with Chicago still holding his rights. The Bulls responded this time with a 1 year, $33.1M contract, a salary that would stand as the highest in the NBA until the 2017-18 season when both LeBron James, and Steph Curry surpassed it.

Jordan’s $33.1M salary for the 1997-98 season was more than the average NBA payroll that season. It would be his last salary as a member of the Bulls, as Jordan would once again retire on January 13th, 1999 - with the Bulls officially renouncing his rights (for the first time) on January 21st.

The Wizards Years

Michael Jordan was hired by the Washington Wizards as their President of Operations on January 19th, 2000, a job he would stay in until May of 2003. However, on September 28, 2001, Michael Jordan returned (again) to the court, signing a 2 year, $2.03M contract to join the Washington Wizards roster. The shocking move was (rightfully) muted by the chaotic 9/11 times, and he’s on record as stating that he would donate his entire $1M salary for the 2001-02 season to victims of terrorism.

Jordan battled knee injuries during the entirety of this final contract, stepping away from the game on November 28th, 2022, and officially retiring (again again) on April 3rd, 2002. 

Career Earnings

When it was all said and done, Michael Jordan reeled in approximately $94M on the court, $63.28M of which came in the 1996 & 1997 seasons alone.

He earned $91.8M from the Chicago Bulls, and another $2.03M from the Washington Wizards

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