Scottie Scheffler is the new #1 overall golfer in the world with his dominating win at THE PLAYERS Championship and earns himself an additional $4.5 million for the 2023 season. This brings his 2023 on-course earnings to $10.49 million (now the highest for the 2023 season) and brings his career on-course earnings to just north of $32 million.

THE PLAYERS Championship Top 5

1. Scottie Scheffler: $4,500,000

2. Tyrrell Hatton: $2,725,000

T3. Tom Hoge, Viktor Hovland: $1,475,000

5. Hideki Matsuyama: $1,025,000

Full Results

2023 Earnings Leaders Update

1. Scottie Scheffler: $10,486,495

2. Jon Rahm: $9,934,779

3. Max Homa: $7,344,412

4. Kurt Kitayama: $5,048,388

5. Tyrrell Hatton: $4,473,894

Full List

A lot has changed since we wrote about James Harden and his contract situation last year. Harden opted out of his deal after being traded to the Philadelphia 76ers, which was expected. What wasn’t expected was he then took less money in a new deal, which allowed Philadelphia to bring in both P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr. In exchange for that goodwill, Harden only signed a two-year deal with a player option for next season.

That all made sense. Harden made a short-term sacrifice, knowing a long-term deal would be waiting for him this summer. He’d still get a max contract, the Sixers added some key rotation players and Philadelphia would move forward with a veteran core for at least the foreseeable future.

Or so we thought.

Around Christmastime, buzz began to build that Harden was interested in returning to the Houston Rockets in free agency. Over the last few months, that buzz is now as prevalent as the droning hum of dragonflies on a summer afternoon.

It might seem ludicrous that a 14-year veteran might leave a title contender for one of the worst teams in the league. But this is the NBA. Ludicrous things happen all the time in this league.

Reports are that Harden loves Houston. And it’s not an unrequited love either. Houston loves Harden right back. Sometimes comfort is worth more to a player than contention or money.

And, due to a quirky rule in the CBA, the money might not even be all that different for Harden if he leaves the 76ers for the Rockets this summer. Let’s dive in.

The Veteran Extension

We’re only listing this to say that Harden is not extension-eligible. Because he opted out of his old deal and signed a new contract this summer, Harden is not able to extend with the 76ers. That’s one potential retention tool that has been taken off the table.

Re-signing with the 76ers as a free agent

Maybe the noise about James Harden and Houston is just that: noise. Maybe he has no intentions of leaving Philadelphia, where Beard aficionado Daryl Morey runs the show and Harden has teamed with Joel Embiid to form one of the league’s best duos.

The max Harden can effectively get from the Sixers projects as follows:

• 2023-24: $46,900,000
• 2024-25: $50,652,000
• 2025-26: $54,404,000
• 2026-27: $58,156,000
• Total: four years, $210,112,000

That’s the 35% of the cap maximum Harden is eligible for as a player with 14 years of service. It also includes 8% raises off the projected first-year salary of $46.9 million.

You might be wondering why Harden is effectively capped at a four-year deal, when a player re-signing with Bird rights can sign for five years. Here’s where that CBA quirk of the “Over-38” rule comes into play.

Harden will turn 34 this summer. That means a five-year deal would carry him from his age-34 through age-38 seasons. That makes that final season subject to the Over-38 rule.

Now, it’s important to note that nothing prevents Philadelphia and Harden from signing a five-year deal. It would just have to be for less than the max (by a pretty large margin, because of the way cap hits work on a deal impacted by the Over-38 rule).

What happens with the Over-38 rule is that the assumption is that a player will be retired by the time they hit 38 years old (Yes, several players have tested these assumptions in recent years. Enough so that this rule has been tweaked from Over-35 to Over-36 and now to Over-38 in recent CBA negotiations). In Harden’s case, that would be on a presumptive fifth season. In this case, the salary for that fifth season would be treated as deferred compensation. The salary from that fifth season would be divided up (as percentage of the total salary) and spread across the first four seasons of the contract.

In Harden’s case, he’s presumably still a max salary player. Because no player is allowed to earn more than their individual maximum amount in first-year salary, there is nowhere to put that deferred compensation. Thus, the contract would be deemed invalid. Harden would have to take less in base salary each season, to allow for the money from the fifth season to be spread across the first four season. In that case, it would bring us right back to the $210 million amount he can get in a straight four-year, max deal.

There are ways to work around the Over-38 rule and to still sign a five-year deal, but all would involve Harden taking far less than the maximum he’s eligible for. That doesn’t seem realistic, even despite last summer’s Sixers-friendly maneuvering.

Signing with another team as a free agent:

We’ll leave this open to James Harden signing with any other team, even if all signs point to that “other” team only being the Rockets, should Harden leave the 76ers. If he leaves Philadelphia, here’s what Harden is eligible to sign for elsewhere:

• 2023-24: $46,900,000
• 2024-25: $49,245,000
• 2025-26: $51,590,000
• 2026-27: $53,935,000
• Total: four years, $201,670,000

That’s the same 35% max in first-year salary, but it’s capped at 5% raises and only four years. And that removes the Over-38 rule from the equation entirely, as Harden would be in his age-37 season in the final year of this deal.

We can debate if Houston should be investing most of their cap space in a Harden reunion at another point, should it come to pass. The main takeaway? The Rockets currently project to have $56.2 million in cap space this summer. That’s enough for Harden and some leftover cap room. Mostly: the path for Houston to bring Harden home is not only open, it’s completely free and clear cap-wise.

Summary

James Harden opted out of $47.4 million for this season with Philadelphia 76ers and re-signed for $33 million. We can take the player option out of the mix for next season, because that was never realistically getting picked up barring Harden getting seriously injured or his game falling apart. Neither of those have happened, so we can confidently say he sacrificed $14.4 million for this season.

Because we’re working under the assumption that Harden is still a max player, that was a one-year sacrifice, should he stay in Philadelphia. If he leaves the Sixers, Harden would be giving up a further $8.5 million.

That’s a total of about $23 million Harden would have given up, should he leave for Houston or elsewhere. For a player who has already banked in excess of $300 million, and probably has over $200 million still to come, it’s not exactly inconceivable that Harden would leave the 76ers for another team. Fully maximizing his earnings don’t seem to be a real motivation.

The Over-38 rule is obviously a complicating factor here. It removes what would have been Philadelphia’s biggest advantage: a fifth year at $61.9 million. With that off the table, an $8.5 million salary deficit spread over four years isn’t going to make a difference.

One other thing to note: If Harden is willing to take less than max money, that probably increases Houston’s chances of landing him. That would allow the Rockets to have even more cap space to work with to add talent around Harden in a homecoming. In Philadelphia, taking less really just delays a tax bill or lessens it. That’s good, but it’s not quite the same as the flexibility gained while building something new in Houston.

This seems like it will come down to Harden’s desire to remain on a readymade contender in Philadelphia. The Sixers can offer him a four-year deal which would tie him to the franchise for the same amount of time as Joel Embiid. That’s a good a start toward being a title contender for at least the next few years.

Yet, there’s a ton of smoke coming from Houston. And where there is that much smoke, there’s often fire. It’s been so well reported that Harden still considered Houston to be home, that there’s something there. If the Rockets give him most of their cap space, and then package some of their kids together in smart trades, they could be a playoff team next season.

James Harden isn’t MVP of the NBA James Harden anymore. Those days are over, but he should have been an All-Star this season. Harden is still good enough to be a featured attraction on a playoff team. At the end of the day, maybe just being a playoff team and the love showered upon him from Houston is enough for Harden to finish out his career in comfort.

Kurt Kitayama wins the Arnold Palmer Invitational earning himself his first PGA Tour victory and $3.6 million. This brings his 2023 on-course earnings to $5.05 million (now 4th highest for the 2023 season) and nearly doubles his career on-course earnings to $7.77 million. 

Arnold Palmer Invitational Top 5

1. Kurt Kitayama: $3,600,000

T2. Harry English, Rory McIlroy: $1,780,000

T4. Tyrrell Hatton, Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Patrick Cantlay: $800,000

Full Results

2023 Tournament Earnings Leaders Update

1. Jon Rahm: $9,934,779

2. Max Homa: $6,607,805

3. Scottie Scheffler: $5,986,495

4. Kurt Kitayama: $5,048,388

5. Keegan Bradley: $4,263,524

Full List

The Memphis Grizzlies have become the NBA’s preeminent “draft and develop” team. Of their current roster, only Steven Adams, Tyus Jones and Luke Kennard didn’t begin their NBA careers as Grizzlies. Memphis believes in keeping their draft picks, selecting players with upside and high work ethic, and then coaching them up to get the most of their abilities.

Another thing the Grizzlies believe in? Locking up those players to long-term contracts.

In recent years, Memphis has reached extension agreements with Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Brandon Clarke, and Steven Adams. That group of four, and presumably Desmond Bane (who will be extension-eligible to this summer), will be Grizzlies through at least 2024-25.

But there’s another player who Memphis has already extended once that could be up for another new deal before he hits free agency this summer. Let’s talk about the interesting case of Dillon Brooks.

The Veteran Extension

Brooks is in the final year of the three-year, $35 million extension he signed with Memphis in 2020. Brooks is now eligible to extend again through June 30. Here’s what that extension could look like:

• 2023-24: $13,680,000
• 2024-25: $14,774,400
• 2025-26: $15,868,800
• 2026-27: $16,963,200
• Total: four years, $61,286,400

That’s the max Brooks can get in a veteran extension. It’s a 120% bump off his current salary of $11,400,000 with 8% raises in the following years.

That’s an average of about $15.3 million per season for Brooks. That $13.7 million for next season would see Brooks ranked as the 19th highest paid small forward in the NBA, just behind Doug McDermott and ahead of Nicolas Batum. If you extrapolate that out to all wings, Brooks would be the 45th highest paid wing next season at $13.7 million.

Re-signing with the Grizzlies as a free agent

Maybe Brooks looks at the landscape this summer and sees that there are somewhere between seven and 10 team projected to have considerable cap space. Then he looks at the free agent small forwards and sees that he ranks somewhere between the third- and fifth-best free agent small forward. That could push Brooks to wait to sign a new deal until free agency.

The max Brooks could get from the Grizzlies projects to look like the follow:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $36,180,000
• 2025-26: $38,860,000
• 2026-27: $41,540,000
• 2027-28: $44,220,000
• Total: five years, $194,300,000

That’s the 25% of the cap maximum Brooks is eligible for as a player with six years of service. It also includes 8% raises off the projected first-year salary of $33.5 million.

Yes, that’s more than Brooks is going to get. He’s a good player, but a first-year salary of $33.5 million would make him the sixth highest paid small forward, behind Brandon Ingram and ahead of Michael Porter Jr. Of all wing players, he would rank 13th, again nestled between Ingram and Porter. Given his shooting struggles the last two seasons, that’s a bit rich for the Grizzlies.

Signing with another team as a free agent:

It probably wouldn’t make sense for Brooks to leave Memphis, as he’s comfortable there, plays a big role and the team is good. But if Brooks got wandering eyes, here’s the max another team could give him this summer:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $35,175,000
• 2025-26: $36,850,000
• 2026-27: $38,525,000
• Total: four years, $144,050,000

That’s the same 30% max in first-year salary, but it’s capped at 5% raises and only four years, as Brooks would be changing teams.

This would be over double what Brooks could get by locking in for an extension with Memphis. But this is still more than Brooks is gong to get as a free agent. As much as teams value 3&D wings (or maybe it should be “3”&D in Brooks’ case), that’s not where Brooks will fall salary-wise as a free agent.

Summary

Dillon Brooks is a good player, despite the shooting challenges of the past two seasons. However, Brooks recently turned 27, so there’s probably not much, if any, improvement still to come in his game. Maybe the shooting turns back around, but everything else what it is at this point. If the shooting doesn’t bounce back, that’s a major limiting factor for Brooks.

The reality is that Brooks’ value is probably higher to the Grizzlies than it would be to another team. Could a cap space team like Orlando, Detroit or Houston add him as a mid-career veteran that would give them an infusion of wing defense? Sure. But those teams have another needs they’ll probably focus on first. In other words: Brooks probably won’t be a priority free agent for any team out of the gates this summer.

There’s also the fact that Brooks is, let’s say, an interesting personality. He’s a top-tier irritant for opponents, and that’s putting it kindly. Brooks is also a high-end irrational confidence guy. It’s not uncommon to see Brooks on the floor with several All-Stars and feel like his thought process is “I got this!”.

The Grizzlies have figured out how to make that work to their advantage. They like that he gets under the skin of opposing wing scorers. And while he might get a little wild on offense, Memphis needs that, especially when Ja Morant and Desmond Bane are out of the game. It’s an important layer of unpredictability in an offense that relies on Morant’s skywalking excellence a bit more than is comfortable at times.

Locking in on a veteran extension that would see Brooks make just north of $15 million as an average salary seems like a fair deal for both him and the Grizzlies. The potential to make slightly more could be there this summer, but that would involve leveraging an outside offer against Memphis.

If the veteran extension isn’t quite enough, a compromise for Memphis and Brooks this summer could be something that looks like this:

• 2023-24: $18,000,000
• 2024-25: $16,560,000
• 2025-26: $15,120,000
• 2026-27: $13,680,000
• Total: four years, $63,360,000

That’s a bit more total money as the Veteran Extension option for Brooks, and it gives him more money up front. Then, as he approaches his early 30s, the salary drops into what will likely be the Non-Taxpayer MLE range.

In this type of setup, Brooks wins immediately with a salary that would rank in the top-20 of small forwards and top-35 of all wings. The Grizzlies will be an over-the-cap team this offseason, but have a ton of space under the luxury tax for 2023-24. This is a good way to use some of that flexibility by giving Brooks an up-front bump for more team-friendly salaries in the later years.

No matter what, expect Memphis and Brooks to reach an agreement on a new deal. The Grizzlies aren’t in the habit of letting their players walk and Brooks should know his value is highest in Memphis. That’s a combination that rarely sees non-max players leave town.

Charles Howell III wins the first LIV Golf event of 2023 at Mayakoba earning individually earning himself $4 million, plus $750,000 for the team bonus. Howell III's career LIV Golf earnings (individual + team) is now at $5.4 million.

Mayakoba Top 5

1. Charles Howell III: $4,000,000

2. Peter Uihlein: $2,125,000

3. Branden Grace: $1,500,000

4. Paul Casey: $1,050,000

5. Brendan Steele, Cameron Smith: $887,500

Full Results

Team Earnings

1. Crushers GC (Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau, Charles Howell III, Anirban Lahiri): $3,000,000 ($750,00 each)

2. 4 Aces GC (Dustin Johnson, Pat Perez, Patrick Reed, Peter Uihlein): $1,500,000 ($375,000 each)

3. Torque GC (Joaquin Niemann, Sebastian Munoz, Mito Pereira, David Puig): $500,000 ($125,000 each)

Chris Kirk wins The Honda Classic by playoff with Eric Cole earning himself $1.512 million. This brings his 2023 season earnings to $2.64 million and his career on-course earnings to $24.65 million. 

The Honda Classic Top 5

1. Chris Kirk: $1,512,000

2. Eric Cole: $915,600

3. Tyler Duncan: $579,600

4. Ryan Gerard: $411,600

5. Ben Martin, Sepp Straka, Ben Taylor, Shane Lowry, Justin Suh: $288,120

Full Results

2023 Tournament Earnings Leaders Update

1. Jon Rahm: $9,864,750

2. Max Homa: $6,282,805

3. Scottie Scheffler: $5,186,495

4. Keegan Bradley: $3,778,524

5. Nick Taylor: $3,048,374

Full List

With the official NFL announcement that the 2023 league salary cap maximum will be set at $224,800,000, we now have confirmation on the official tag non-exclusive tag numbers for the upcoming season as well.

The Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag
When a player is offered a non-exclusive tag, he is still able to negotiate with other organizations. If an offer sheet is submitted and signed by the tagged play, the previous team must match the offer to keep the player. Otherwise, the player will officially sign with the new team, who will send two first round picks to the losing team in order to complete the transaction.

The Exclusive Franchise Tag
The exclusive tag is calculated much differently than the non-exclusive figure, in that it is represented by the Top 5 salaries at the respective position once the restricted free agency period ends (April). Additionally, the player is not allowed to negotiate with other teams at any point under the exclusive tag. If the player is traded after signing the exclusive tag, there is no required trade compensation. The losing team can acquire whatever package of players and/or draft picks they wish to process the transaction.

The Transition Tag
This offering has become less frequent in past offseasons, and is calculated based on the Top 10 salaries for a respective position, making them slightly lower than their corresponding franchise tender. Players are free to negotiate with other teams on a transition tag, and the previous team has the right to match an offer sheet that is signed. However, no draft pick compensation will be transerred should the losing team decline to match the offer sheet.

The Second Tag Scenario
If a player was tagged in the previous season and are offered another tag this offseason, the value of that tag will either be 120% of last year's tag, or the new figure for their respective position - whichever is greater. If a player is tagged a third straight offseason, their new tag value will represent 140% of the previous year's figure.

Important Dates & Notes

• Teams will have the ability to tag one pending unrestricted free agent from their 2022 roster starting on February 21st, 2023 through 4PM ET on March 7th.
• Tagged players then have until July 15th, 2023 to negotiate and complete a multi-year contract extension. Once that date passes, the player must play the upcoming season on a 1-year contract - through there are no restrictions to how much or little compensation the player can receive.
• If 120% of the player's salary from last season is greater than the tag number they will be tagged at the higher figure for the upcoming season.
• Teams also have the ability to rescind a tag that has not yet been signed, with no ramifications.
• Some players (Tom Brady, Jimmy Garoppolo, etc...) have language in their contract barring them from receiving a tag offer this offseason. This is becoming more and more common.
• Each team may only tag one pending free agent in a given year. This includes any tag (meaning a team cannot offer a franchise tag to one player and a transition tag to another player, it's one or the other).

2023 Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag & Transition Tag Figures

Notable 2023 Tag Candidates

Kaleb McGary (OT, ATL)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $18,244,000

This would be quite a story, as the Falcons declined McGary's $13.202M 5th year option for 2023 last May. He went on to post a career year, playing every snap last season. With a new QB likely coming on board, keeping an above average offensive line intact is a clear must, and McGary did enough in 2022 to at least consider throwing an overpriced tag at to keep all options on the table.

Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)

Prediction: Exclusive Franchise Tag

Cost: $45.2M, but expected to be lower

After a few tumultuous offseasons trying to negotiate a long-term extension, it appears immiment that Jackson will be offered a tag by the Baltimore Ravens in the coming weeks. Exactly which tag will be the first detail to watch for. It's widely expected that Lamar will be offered the Exclusive Franchise Tag, currently estimated to account for $45.2M in 2023. This number comes with a few conditions. 1) Since the actual official exclusive tenders won't lock until April, the Ravens will be able to account for the non-exclusive price ($32.4M) until that happens. 2) Many of the top QB cap hits are going to be restructured (or released) in the coming weeks, largely changing the end result for this exclusive pricepoint. It's perfectly plausible that Lamar's exclusive tag price is only slightly larger than the non-exclusive figure when it's all said and done.

In this regard, it seems a no-brainer to go this route with their franchise QB, especially if a trade out of Baltimore is at least an option this Spring. The Ravens will be seeking a trade price that far exceeds the two first round picks they would assume with a non-exclusive tag trade.

Tremaine Edmunds (LB, BUF)

Prediction: Possible Transition Tag

Cost: $17,478,000

Edmunds saved his best NFL season for his contract year, playing out a $12.7M 5th-year option in 2022. The Bills haven't been quiet about their eagerness to keep him, but Brandon Beane has done very little overpaying as Bills' GM to date. Edmunds isn't a $21M franchise tag candidate, but he's at least a consideration for the $17.4M transition tender this month, despite the fact that Buffalo currently sits about $20M in the red right now.

Jessie Bates III (S, CIN)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $15.5M (120% of last year's tag)

Bates wasn't thrilled about being tagged last year, and he held out as long as possible without missing game action, so another go around wouldn't be pretty. The Bengals also drafted safety Daxton Hill in the first round last spring, putting the writing on the wall that their plan was to reset at some point here. It's not improbable to question if the Bengals could tag Bates in order to trade him, but a two first round pick price point seems too rich for most NFL teams.

Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $10,091,000

Pollard has been the best running back on the Dallas roster for a few seasons now, so to see his rookie contract expire with such a devastating injury is extremely unfortunate. Pollard's recovery time is right around the draft, so he should be available for the majority of offseason workouts. Placing a 1 year guarantee on him seems the right move - regardless of the Cowboys' plans for Zeke Elliott this March.

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $13,117,200 (120% of last year's tag)

Schultz didn't put together quite the same year he posted in 2021, but the connection with Prescott is still clear and obvious. With that said, the late season injury to RB Tony Pollard seems to be a clear path toward him getting the Cowboys' tag this offseason, leaving Schultz headed for the open market.

Jawaan Taylor (OT, JAX)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $18,244,000

Don't get me wrong here: Taylor is going to get paid, and the Jaguars are likely trying to keep him in the fold as we speak. Jacksonville likely doesn't have the cap flexibility to warrant an $18M tag placeholder, but if they need to keep him off of the open market and away from what is expected to be massive offers from teams like Chicago, it's not the worst option. Taylor projects to a 4 year, $56M deal in our system.

Evan Engram (TE, JAX)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $11,345,000

Engram played out 2022 on what can be considered a "showcase" contract and is certainly looking to capitalize on a strong year this offseason, with a multi-year guarantee in sight. It stands to reason that the two sides aren't too far apart here in terms of extension numbers, so if time is the only issue, slapping an $11M placeholder on him makes a lot of sense. He's likely looking for Hunter Henry's $25M guaranteed here.

Dre'Mont Jones (DE, DEN)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $19,727,000

This quietly consistent former 3rd round pick finished 2022 with career highs across the board - despite seeing action in only 13 games. He entered 2022 as a near $8M per year player in our system, and is now on pace to bank a cap-adjusted version of Carl Lawson's 3 year, $45M deal. Denver can prolong the negotiation process with an expensive tag for now, then work to get him under contract before the March 15th league year.

Orlando Brown Jr. (LT, KC)

Prediction: 2nd Tag

Cost: $19,994,400 (120% of last year's tag)

For a top contending team living right up against the cap every year, this certainly isn't the most ideal outcome, but Brown simply hasn't played like the $24M per year tackle he wishes to be contractually. A 2nd tag puts him on a 2 year, $36.5M spread across 2022-2023, which aligns much more with his calculated value - despite the lack of cap flexibility. With no blidside replacement on their roster, using the tag as a placeholder until KC can formulate more options is at least a safe starting point.

Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $10,091,000

This was a hail mary longshot 12 months ago, especially after Jacobs' 5th-year option was declined. That option would have come with an $8M guarantee for 2023. It now seems a foregone conclusion that the Raiders will offer a $10.1M guarantee via the franchise tag.

Saquon Barkley (RB, NYG)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $10,091,000

Barkley looked every bit the weapon in 2022 that he was out of the gate back in 2018, so it's easy to forget that he's had more down than up in 5 seasons. He'll be looking to broach the $12M+ mark on a 2-year guarantee, so starting with a $10.1M tag at least gives the Giants a chance to think more.

Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $32,416,000

It seems weird to tag the running back instead of the quarterback in this day and age, but the long story short here is that the Giants are probably hoping to see Saquon Barkley sign the tag and play on the 1-year tender for 2023, rather than lock him into the $13M+ per year extension he's rumored to be seeking. Jones remains an inconsistent QB1, but the Giants simply don't have a better option right now. What they do have is a front office & coaching staff that appear to be more than capable of building a roster and scheme that maximizes Jones' strengths. There's probably a $30M per year extension coming soon here.

Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)

Prediction: No Tag

Cost: $19,743,000

It would be eye-popping to see the Patriots put a number like this on an offensive weapon, but the WR market is thin this offseason, and Meyers' name has already been attached to quite a few teams. Hunter Renfrow's $16M+ deal is a likely starting point in free agency, with Christian Kirk's deal (+ a cap adjustment) extremely plausible. In other words, putting a $19.7M placeholder on Meyers and then placing him on the trade block might be good buiness for New England. So would keeping him.

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S, PHI)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $14,460,000

The Saints knew they were getting into a point of no return with Gardner-Johnson when it came to his next contract, and Philadelphia might be trending toward that direction now as well. There's a world where a $14.4M tag for the 25-year-old actually represents pretty good value, and that sounds like something Howie Roseman would be considering right now. He's a $13.3M player in our system, but there's a 5 year, $80M contract out there for him on the open market.

Geno Smith (QB, SEA)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $32,416,000

It still seems crazy, but it's also extremely inevitable at this point. Geno Smith is the best option for the Seahawks in 2023, who have financial flexibility for a 1-year tender like this. It's plausible that he and Daniel Jones sign similiar extensions this offseason, but nobody has warranted the very definition of what a franchise tag was created to be more in recent memory than Geno Smith in 2023.

Da'Ron Payne (DT, WAS)

Prediction: Franchise Tag

Cost: $18,937,000

Payne finally started to put it together in 2022, the final year of his rookie contract, and his calculated value in our system sits just south of $20M per year, but the Commanders have already fed a lot of mouths on their defensive line, and they have plenty of other holes to fill if they seek to remain in divisional contention in the near future. Offering Payne a multi-year extension that provides team flexibility is the safer route here, but he likely walks into the open market this March.

Jon Rahm, age 28, won his third event of the 2022-23 PGA Tour season and his tenth PGA Tour event of his career with the win at The Genesis Invitational. Rahm dominated throughout the entire weekend and he might just be getting started with a lot of the season left to play. There are more PGA Tour enhanced event and all four Majors still remain on the PGA Tour schedule.

With this recent win of $3.6 million, Rahm’s on-course official career earnings is now at $44.89 million, ranking him 19th All-time. With the known fact of the enhanced event money and Rahm seemingly being “in the zone” right now, he could see himself at or just outside of the Top-10 in on-course official event career earnings.

PGA Tour Career Wins

2016-17 Season

• Farmers Insurance Open

2017-18 Season

• CareerBuilder Challenge

2018-19 Season

• Zurich Classic of New Orleans

2019-20 Season

• BMW Championship
• The Memorial Tournament

2020-21 Season

• U.S. Open (2021)

2021-22 Season

• Mexico Open at Vidanta

2022-23 Season

• Sentry Tournament of Champions
• The American Express
• The Genesis Invitational

2022-23 PGA Tour Season

Rahm’s 2022-23 PGA Tour season has gotten off to an unbelievable start. Of the seven events he’s competed in he’s won 3 and finished in the Top-10 of each event. He’s earned a total of $9,864,750 through seven events. For context, the highest single-season on-course official event earner was Scottie Scheffler last season, having accumulated $14,046,909 through 25 events.

The CJ CUP in South Carolina: 

• T4, $462,000 

Hero World Challenge:

• T8, $112,500

Sentry Tournament of Champions: 

• 1st, $2,700,000

The American Express: 

• 1st, $1,440,000

Farmers Insurance Open: 

• T7, $282,750

WM Phoenix Open: 

• 3rd, $1,380,000

The Genesis Invitational: 

• 1st, $3,600,000

Earnings Outlook

John Rahm seems to have been in the mix since he joined the PGA Tour. When looking at the top earnings golfers through a certain threshold of events played, Rahm finds himself within the top five of each threshold and now finds himself as the highest earning golfer through 137 events played.

First 25 Events

Jon Rahm is the 2nd-highest earning golfer through his first 50 official events played in the PGA Tour.

1. Cameron Young: $6,308,211
2. Jon Rahm: $4,980,651
3. Collin Morikawa: $3,672,939
4. Will Zalatoris: $3,622,172
5. Keegan Bradley: $3,432,200

First 50 Events

Jon Rahm is the 3rd-highest earning golfer through his first 50 official events played in the PGA Tour.

1. Will Zalatoris: $13,340,769
2. Collin Morikawa: $11,886,526
3. Jon Rahm: $10,301,702
4. Rory McIlroy: $10,215,099
5. Jordan Spieth: $7,492,643

First 75 Events

Jon Rahm is the 3rd-highest earning golfer through his first 75 official events played in the PGA Tour.

1. Collin Morikawa: $18,930,575
2. Rory McIlroy: $16,200,743
3. Jon Rahm: $16,110,072
4. Jordan Spieth: $16,086,406
5. Scottie Scheffler: $14,901,993

First 100 Events

Jon Rahm is the 3rd-highest earning golfer through his first 100 official events played in the PGA Tour.

1. Rory McIlroy: $28,303,413
2. Jordan Spieth: $25,062,204
3. Jon Rahm: $24,702,274
4. Tiger Woods: $21,049,308
5. Xander Schauffele: $19,613,409

First 125 Events

Jon Rahm is the 3rd-highest earning golfer through his first 100 official events played in the PGA Tour.

1. Rory McIlroy: $35,539,880
2. Jordan Spieth: $34,662,349
3. Jon Rahm: $33,684,801
4. Brooks Koepka: $30,342,809
5. Tiger Woods: $30,246,330

First 137 Events

Jon Rahm is the highest earning golfer through his first 137 official events played in the PGA Tour.

1. Jon Rahm: $44,888,795
2. Rory McIlroy: $38,218,572
3. Jordan Spieth: $37,123,584
4. Tiger Woods: $35,944,855
5. Brooks Koepka: $31,396,536

How does Rahm’s $44.89 million through 137 events compare to that of the other golfers?

Career Earnings

As mentioned above, Rahm now finds himself with $44,888,792, 19th All-Time, in on-course official career earnings with the addition of the $3.6 million prize for winning The Genesis Invitational. 

How does Jon Rahm compare to the current Top-5 All-Time on-course official career earnings?

A few of the players above are either retired or no longer active because they’ve decided to leave the PGA Tour for the LIV Golf tour. So how does Rahm’s career earnings compare to active PGA Tour golfers that currently have accumulated more than Rahm in their careers?

How does Rahm compare from an average standpoint?

#1 - Tiger Woods played in 372 events with an average of $325,147 per event. 

#2 - Phil Mickelson played in 658 events with an average of $144,308 per event. 

#3 - Dustin Johnson played in 307 events with an average of $243,964 per event. 

#6 - Rory McIlroy played in 223 events with an average of $306,313 per event. 

#19 - Jon Rahm has only played 137 events with an average of $327,655 per event.

Major Championships

Jon Rahm has won one Major tournament (U.S. Open 2021) and with the way he has been playing this could be his year to win a second or more.

Jon Rahm’s odds, per FanDuel Sportsbook, of winning a particular Major this year one month ago (after his win at The American Express) compared to today (Feb 20, 2022):

• Masters Tournament: +1000 → +750
• PGA Championship: +1300 → +950
• U.S. Open: +1200 → +950
• The Open Championship: +1200 → +1000

With each tournament Rahm plays in and does well in I’d expect those odds to quickly shrink and rightfully so. 

Note: Winners of these tournaments last season won $2.7 million, $2.7 million, $3.15 million and $2.5 million respectively.

Final Thoughts

As seen through the 25, 50, 75, 100, 125 and 137 events played thresholds, Jon Rahm has been here the whole time, but we are witnessing him taking his game to a completely new level. Regardless of what you want to call it, “in the zone” or “in his prime,” Rahm is seeing the course, swinging his clubs, seeing the game itself in a completely different way than other golfers right now. And to top it all off he’s been consistent. He hasn’t had a poor tournament yet when it comes to his finishing positions. While he has struggled out of the gate on some, he has quickly rebounded and figured out what he has needed to do to slowly creep back up the leaderboards and be within contention.

With the expansion of the enhanced events and prize money being elevated, golfers will now have more opportunities to accumulate their career earnings at a quicker rate than those of the past. However, these golfers, including Rahm, still need to show up and perform each and every event. The prize pool just gives them that much more incentive to do what it takes to move up the leaderboard each week. It’s going to be fascinating to look at the above trajectories at the end of this season (and seasons to come) to see how Rahm tracks compared to the top two earners, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy.

If you are just an overall sports fan, casual golf fan, avid golf fan that hasn’t had a chance to see Rahm in action yet, take some time to watch or catch a glimpse of him while you can. Something special is happening right before our eyes similar to Scottie Scheffler’s season last year, but I think this is a different kind of special.

Jon Rahm wins his third tournament of the 2023 season and earns an additional $3.6 million. Rahm brings his 2023 season earnings to $9.86 million and is now the highest earner in 2023. His on-course career earnings are now $44.89 million bringing him to 19th all-time.

Max Homa had an up-and-down 4th Round finishing with a 68, but still ended up finishing 2nd. Patrick Cantlay shot a 67 and finished 3rd while Will Zalatoris surged up the leaderboard on the last day shooting a 64 to get himself into 4th place. 

The Genesis Invitational Top 5

1. Jon Rahm: $3,600,000

2. Max Homa: $2,180,000

3. Patrick Cantlay: $1,380,000

4. Will Zalatoris: $980,000

5. Keith Mitchell: $820,000 

Full Results

2023 Tournament Earnings Leaders Update

1. Jon Rahm: $9,864,750

2. Max Homa: $6,282,805

3. Scottie Scheffler: $5,186,495

4. Keegan Bradley: $3,778,524

5. Nick Taylor: $2,943,945

Full List