An offseason look at a view Buffalo Bills with contractual question marks heading into 2018, and the cap ramifications should they retire, be traded, or be released in the coming weeks.

Cordy Glenn, OT

The 28-year-old former 2nd round pick out of Georgia has All-Pro potential when healthy, but staying on the field has been a problem in recent years. His cap number jumps to $14.45M in 2018, which ranks 2nd on the Bills (for now), & 3rd among active NFL left tackles. His $11.25M cash to be made in 2018 ranks 6th among signed left tackles.

Upcoming Dates
$6.5M of his $9.25M salary becomes fully guaranteed on March 16th. A $2M roster bonus is due on March 18th

Trade Ramifications
Pre March 18th: $9.6M dead cap, $4.85M savings
March 18th - June 1st: $11.6M dead cap ($2.85M savings)
Post June 1st: $5.2M dead cap ($9.25M savings), additional $6.4M dead cap in 2019

Release Ramifications
Pre March 16th: $11.1M dead cap ($3.35M savings)
March 16th-June 1st: $18.1M dead cap (-$3.65M savings)
Post June 1st: $11.7M dead cap ($2.75M savings), additional $6.4M dead cap in 2019.

View Cordy Glenn's Contract Breakdown

Tyrod Taylor, QB

Taylor has been a fairly productive, efficient QB for the Bills across 3 seasons, but with draft assets in hand and free agent options available, his tenure in Buffalo appears to be closing. His $18.08M cap figure in 20108 ranks 1st on the Bills, and 16th among signed QBs. Upcoming Dates A $6M roster bonus is paid on March 16th

Trade Ramifications
Pre March 16th: $7.64M dead cap ($10.44M savings)
March 16th - June 1st: $13.64M dead cap ($4.44M savings)
Post June 1st: $8.08M dead cap ($10M savings), additional $5.56M dead cap in 2019

Release Ramifications
Pre March 16th: $8.64M dead cap ($9.44M savings)
March 16th-June 1st: $13.64M dead cap ($4.44M savings)
Post June 1st: $8.08M dead cap ($10M savings), additional $5.56M dead cap in 2019

View Tyrod Taylor's Contract Breakdown

Jerry Hughes, DE

After 19.5 sacks in 2 seasons under Jim Schwartz's defense, Hughes just hasn't found the same pass-rush production since. He's still posting strong tackle/run-stop numbers, but the 29-year-old may not be the best fit for the current Bills' system. His $10.4M cap figure in 2018 ranks 3rd on the Bills, and 11th among signed DEs.

Upcoming Dates
A $1M roster bonus is paid on March 18th

Trade Ramifications
Pre March 18th: $5.8M dead cap ($4.6M savings)
March 18th - June 1st: $6.8M dead cap ($3.6M savings)
Post June 1st: $3.9M dead cap ($6.5M savings), additional $2.9M dead cap in 2019

Release Ramifications
Pre March 18th: $5.8M dead cap ($4.6M savings)
March 18th - June 1st: $6.8M dead cap ($3.6M savings)
Post June 1st: $3.9M dead cap ($6.5M savings), additional $2.9M dead cap in 2019

View Jerry Hughes' Contract Breakdown

Richie Incognito, OG

Incognito has played every game since joining the Bills in 2015, while making the Pro Bowl each season as well. He's still a very capable lineman even at 34-years old, but his cap number jumps to $7.575M in 2018. While this isn't outrageous by any stretch, it may be too rich for Buffalo given their current standing. He's a borderline cut candidates at this point.

Trade or Release Ramifications
$1.15M dead cap ($6.425M savings)

View Richie Incognito's Contract Breakdown

Lorenzo Alexander, OLB

After a dream season in 2016 (12.5 sacks, 70 tackles), Alexander's role was altered in 2017, dropping his pass-rush production down to almost nothing (3 sacks). He still posted 70 tackles (57 solo), and forced 3 fumbles in 2017, and his $3.6M cap hit for 2018 isn't doing much damage. The question here becomes does the 34-year-old want to return next season.

Upcoming Dates
A $300,000 roster bonus is due March 16th

Trade Ramifications
Pre March 16th: $550,000 dead cap ($3.05M savings)
Post March 16th: $850,000 dead cap ($2.75M savings)

Release Ramifications
$850,000 dead cap ($2.75M savings)

View Lorenzo Alexander's Contract Breakdown

Eric Wood, OC

An unfortunate neck injury has ended Wood's 9-year football career. It appears the Bills will wait until after June 1st to place him on the Retired/Reserve list for cap purposes, while Buffalo also reportedly seeks to recoup some of his signing bonus. Wood's $4.8M salary for 2018 was guaranteed for injury. Should he not be able to pass a physical when the March 14th league year begins, the Bills will be on the hook for this payment (the salary fully guarantees on March 18th anyway).

Retirement Ramifications
Pre June 1st: $10.39M dead cap (-$1.76M savings)
Post June 1st: $8.225M dead cap ($150,000 savings), additional $2.16M in 2019 dead cap

View Eric Wood's Contract Breakdown

An Offseason Look at the New England Patriots

Michael GinnittiFebruary 05, 2018

The Super Bowl runner-up New England Patriots head into the 2018 offseason with around $17.5M in Top 51 cap space to work with out of the gate. According to our data, 51 contracts are signed for next season at the time of this article, and only $948,747 of dead cap has been accrued. The focus for New England over the next month will be two-fold: Lock in a few notable pending free agents, and ascertain the futures of key core players who may be on the fence. We’ll take a deeper look at these scenarios below.

View the Patriots 2018 Salary Cap

Notable Free Agents

The biggest area of concern for now heading toward March 14th free agency will be the expiring contracts of a few offensive linemen. LT Nate Solder had another above average season, and is calculating toward Top 3 tackle money, currently valuing around $13.2M. Add in the pending free agency of OT Cameron Fleming & OT LaAdrian Waddle, and the Patriots have work to do to maintain Brady’s line depth going forward.

In terms of offensive weapons a few names stand out. 32-year-old WR Danny Amendola had a nice season in the absence of an injured Edelman, and shouldn’t come at much cost to keep in the fold should New England wish to. The same can’t be said for 27-year-old RB Dion Lewis, who had a breakout season in both the run & pass game. His value sits at a nice round $5M figure, a figure New England generally doesn’t pay to one RB. Counterpart Rex Burkhead is also on an expiring contract, and while his production didn’t stand out, his 8 total TDs certainly made an impact in 2017.

On the defensive side of the ball, Malcolm Butler didn’t see a snap in Super Bowl 52, but his production over the past two seasons (in the shadow of others) still projects him to a $13M/year contract on the open market. He’s expected to find a new home in 2018.

» View the Complete List of Patriots Free Agents

Contract Statuses for Notable Starters

Football fans across the board will have a close eye on the future decisions of HC Bill Belichick, QB Tom Brady, and TE Rob Gronkowski this spring, as all have been speculated to be considering retirement.

Tom Brady, QB

Brady will be 41 by the time the 2018 season kicks off, but has two years and a total of $30M cash remaining on his current contract. He carries cap hits of $22M in both 2018 & 2019, and none of his salary guarantees until the start of the season.

If Brady retires this spring: The Patriots will likely process this transaction after June 1st, allowing them to split his $14M in dead up at $7M in 2018, and $7M in 2019. The move would clear $15M in cap space for 2018.

If Brady retires after the 2018 season: The Patriots will take a $7M dead cap hit regardless of when the move is processed.

Rob Gronkowski, TE

Like Brady, Gronk has two years remaining on his current contract, including $19M of potential cash, and cap figures of $10.9M, & $12M respectively. This $9.5M average salary ranks #1 among signed Tight Ends, but Gronk may be seeking guaranteed salary going forward.

If Gronk retires this spring: The Patriots will incur a $4M dead cap hit that can be split into $2M in 2018, and $2M in 2019 if the move is processed after June 1st.

If Gronk retires after the 2018 season: The Patriots will incur a $2M dead cap hit, regardless of when the move is processed.

Extension Candidates

TEAM	POS	AGE	MARKET VALUE
Brandin Cooks	WR	27	$13M
Patrick Chung	S	30	$5.7M
Malcom Brown	DT	23	$11.8M

Roster Bubble Candidates

TEAM	POS	AGE	2018 CAP
Mike Gillislee	RB	27	$2,181,250
Martellus Bennett	TE	31	$6,187,500
Alan Branch	DT	33	$4,550,000

» View all 2018 Roster Bubble Candidates

Analyzing a Value & Top Destinations for Kirk Cousins

Michael GinnittiJanuary 31, 2018

The Redskins made an early jump on the offseason, agreeing to acquire QB Alex Smith from the Chiefs, and signing him to a subsequent 4 year, $94M extension in doing so. In light of this, it appears certain that Kirk Cousins will now hit the open market as a viable QB1 at 29 years of age, something the league just isn’t used to seeing.

Kirk Cousins will draw plenty of interest from plenty of teams on the open free agent market - some of which will need to make financial and roster space to acquire him. We’ll take a quick look at the top contenders, including their current financial situation, and any potential moves to be made.

How Much is Kirk Cousins Worth?

This loaded question comes with a pretty easy answer: However much a team wants to spend. How much does he value at is a different story. At season's end, Cousins held a calculalted market value of nearly $26M, nearly $6M more than his value stood at 2 years ago. But free agents at ANY position always reel in more than value based on the nature of supply/demand. To have a viable, experienced QB1 available on the open market is rare, and won't come with any discounts, especially as Cousins has maxed out his salaries in each of the past two seasons.

Over the past few seasons, top QB contracts have reflected a little over 16% of the league cap (Stafford, $27M/$167M). Using this math, and assuming a $178M league cap, Kirk Cousins’ contract should fall in around $28.6M per year. But the salary cap space for the teams listed below comes in all sorts of shapes and sizes. Why does this matter?

Teams like the Browns and Jets can offer heavily front-loaded contracts to Cousins, including big boy signing bonuses, roster bonuses in the first two seasons, and escalated base salaries to go with them. The highest Year 1 payment for any player is Matthew Stafford's $51M in 2017, who is set to reel in $67M through 2018, and $87M through 2019 - to go along with $92M in total guarantees. All of these numbers should be considered in-play when talking about Kirk Cousins next contract.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns stroll into 2018 with more than $110M in projected cap space at their disposal. They also hold the #1 & #4 selections in the upcoming draft thanks to a trade and an 0-16 season. The re-emergence of Josh Gordon paired with Corey Coleman plus a stout offensive line, and an improving defense adds plenty of hope to the Browns short-term future. Installing Cousins’ would allow Cleveland to immediately fill other needs and/or trade for more future assets as well. They’ll need to ramp up their guaranteed money offer - and front load the heck out of the deal to woo Cousins their way, but it’s doable.

New York Jets

The Jets hold around $80M in cap space, plenty to lock in Cousins’ and continue to build out their team elsewhere. But unlike the Browns, the Jets still seem to be breaking apart their pieces rather than build back up. Granted their defense played much better than many expected, and Josh McCown held a sinking ship together well - all things considered. Cousins has connections to the Jets’ staff, and a move to NYC would certainly be good for his brand, but this seems like a tough match.

Denver Broncos

After 5 straight winning seasons, the Broncos took a major step backwards in 2017, and appear poised to blowup their current QB arsenal (Paxton Lynch, Trevor Siemian). Unfortunately, moving on from Lynch would actually COST the Broncos almost $2M in cap. Denver holds about $29M in space, but should add $11M to that if/when they move on from CB Aqib Talib. Add in the fact that top WRs Demaryius Thomas & Emmanuel Sanders are on the roster bubble, and the Broncos aren’t exactly a great look for Cousins at the moment.

Arizona Cardinals

Carson Palmer’s retirement appears to have been a surprise to nobody - except the Cardinals, who had plenty of opportunities to acquire and slowly groom their next QB1, but have failed to do so. They have zero QBs on their roster in 2018, and having missed out on Alex Smith, may be poised to use the #15 pick to find their next franchise leader. No team needs a “quick-fix” that Kirk Cousins can be more than the Cardinals, who have an elite running game, a hall of fame WR (whom they’re trying to keep from retirement), & a strong defense to boot. With around $27M in cap space, Arizona would need to get creative, and wouldn’t be able to front-load this contract in ways Cleveland or the Jets would.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills shocked plenty when they won 9 games & snuck into the postseason this season, which did little to help their draft assets in 2018. Buffalo holds the #21, #22, #53, & #56 picks this April, and are likely to move on from the up/down Tyrod Taylor in early March - a move that would clear $9.44M in cap. Without Taylor in the fold, Buffalo will have around $40M to play with come free agency, and don’t have a ton of in-house players that need re-signing. The Bills could throw all of their financial eggs into Cousins - or all of their draft eggs into a run up the draft board for one of the top available QBs. Either way they’re a team to watch next month.

Minnesota Vikings

The NFC runner-ups will have little time to enjoy their successes, as the offseason brings plenty of headaches for the franchise, none bigger than the expiring contracts of all three of their QBs.

Case Keenum seems the most likely option to keep - but his career year statistically could award him a $20M/year contract, especially if he’s allowed to test the market. Sam Bradford is still the most talented QB in the fold, but his inability to stay on the field will likely keep many teams away, unless he’s willing to accept a 1 or 2 year, incentive-based “show me” deal. Teddy Bridgewater is a complete outlier. He was trending into an above average QB before his nasty injury, and still might have the tallest ceiling of this group, but it’s tough to imagine him finding a starting role anywhere in 2018 with the list of options.

Cousins is the same age as Keenum, but offers more talent, upside, and production - at a much higher price. Luckily, Minnesota has north of $56M in projected cap space to work with, and could make a legitimate run at Cousins next month if they so desired.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Like the Bills, Jacksonville overachieved in 2017, led by (at times) very strong QB play from Blake Bortles. His inconsistencies remain though, and the Jags have a $19M decision to make before March 14th, when his 2018 salary fully guarantees. Moving on from Bortles would give Jacksonville around $44M in cap space to work with, again similar to Buffalo. The AFC runner-ups appear ready to win now, and injecting Cousins into this lineup should be an immediate improvement. Our gut says Bortles plays out his final year and Cousins winds up elsewhere.

New York Giants

It’s no secret that the Giants underperformed in 2017, and now hold the #2 pick in this year’s draft because of it. While tensions with Eli Manning appear to have been ironed out per the new staff, it would still be good business for New York to at least consider trading their long-time QB this offseason. Eli represents a way for teams with not-so-much cap to “win now” (i.e. Arizona, Denver, even Jacksonville). He’d carry cap hits of $16M & $17M to his new team, leaving $12.4M in dead cap behind to the Giants ($9.8M savings). The move would raise New York’s cap space to around $30M, which puts them in the same boat as Denver in terms of structuring a contract for Cousins.