The unfortunately named, often confused, NFL buzz phrase finds itself at the forefront of many conversations this time of year, as roster decisions begin to take shape for the upcoming season. So what is dead cap? Any future, unpaid, guaranteed salary or bonus or any already paid signing bonus that hasn't yet been allocated to the salary cap becomes the responsibility of the team in the event of a release. With a trade, the future guarantees would simply transfer to the new team, leaving behind just the unallocated bonus cap as the current team's dead cap. Still lost? Hopefully the following helps a little...

Example Contract: Player A

• Total Contract: 5 years, $77.5 million
• Signing Bonus: $20 million
• Guaranteed at Signing: 2023 salary, 2024 salary

Out of the gate, this contract comes with $35M of dead cap - the total amount guaranteed at signing (signing bonus + 2023 base salary + 2024 base salary). Once the player completes his offseason workout program, that $100,000 bonus will be added to the dead cap total. If we look at the 2024 dead cap initially, it represents four years of signing bonus proration ($4M x 4), plus the not yet paid but fully guaranteed $10M base salary, or $26M total. 

Future Guaranteed Salary or Roster Bonuses

Any guaranteed base salary that has yet to be paid out is considered dead cap on the contract. Should the player be released, all guaranteed salary will accelerate and be treated as dead cap in the current season. If traded, any unpaid guaranteed salary will transfer to the new team.

Signing or Option Bonuses

When signing or option bonuses are paid, the cap hits for these prorate over the remainder of the contract (max 5 years). For instance, a $20M signing bonus paid on a 5 year contract would account for $4M of bonus cap in each of the contract’s years. If this said player is released prior to year 3 of the contract, that leaves $12M of cap from that bonus still unallocated, which in turn becomes dead cap. This works the same for an option bonus (generally paid out in year 2 of a contract).

The June 1st Dead Cap Rule

Pre June 1st

If a trade, release, or retirement is processed before June 1st in a given league year, ALL of the current & future dead cap associated with the contract is accelerated into the current season.

If Player A was released on March 20th prior to his 2nd season, all $26M of dead cap remaining on the contract (the $10M base salary + $16M of signing bonus cap) would accelerate into dead cap immediately. The team would take on a $26M dead cap hit, losing almost $12M in space.

Post June 1st

If a trade, release, or retirement is processed after June 1st in a given league year, the dead cap allocation splits between the current & following year as such:

Current Year Dead Cap
Any bonus proration in the current year of the contract + any unpaid guaranteed salary or roster bonus. Any cash owed to the player via base salary or roster bonus would immediately accelerate the current year’s dead cap.

Next Year Dead Cap
All of the remaining unallocated bonus dead cap for all future years of the contract.

For Example:
If Player A was cut on June 2nd prior to his 2nd season, the $26M of dead cap would split as:

Current Year: $4M of current year signing bonus proration + $10M guaranteed salary: $14M
Next Year: $12M of remaining future year signing bonus proration

The Post June 1st Designation

Per the terms of the current CBA, each team is now able to designate two players as “Post June 1st releases”. If Player A’s team knows they want to release him, but also want to benefit from the dead cap split after June 1st, they can designate him as such as soon as the league year begins in March. A few things to note here:

• The designating team must carry his entire cap hit for that current year on their books until 4PM ET June 1st. At that point, the transaction (release or retirement) can become official, and the Post June 1st dead cap split can occur. So in our Player A example, if he were designated as a Post 6/1 Release in March of 2024, his team would need to carry a $14.1M cap figure on their books until 6/1.
• Any bonuses or salary triggers that were set to happen prior to June 1st are no longer valid, as the contract has been unofficially ceased per the designation.
• This designation is only available for releases - not trades. It can unofficially be used in retirements as a player can announce his intent to retire in March, but the team can wait to process that designation until after June 2nd for dead cap purposes.
• The player is free to negotiate and sign elsewhere immediately upon the Post 6/1 Designation occurring. They do not need to wait until June 2nd.

The Post June 1st Cap Hit Work Around

One of the more popular recent trends is manipulate a contract prior to the start of a league year (or even immediately prior to a Post 6/1 Designation), in order to make life a little easier for a few months. What are we talking about?

Player A is going to be released with a Post June 1st Designation in March of 2025, but the team doesn’t feel great about carrying a $16.1M cap figure until June 1st just to allow for this to happen. They work with the player/agent to negotiate a “dummy restructure”, lowering his $12M base salary down to the league minimum (let’s assume $1.5M) prior to the release occurring. Now, the team can carry his contract at a $5.6M cap hit through June 1st, then process the release officially.

Why would the player agree to this? Any non-guaranteed salary on a contract that’s about to be ripped up is essentially funny money. The player is off to free agency in search of a new deal, so generally speaking, most player/agents are getting on board with helping the team out in situations like this.

Still lost? Additional or more specific questions? Hit us up @spotrac.

Shohei Ohtani (Angels, SP/DH, 28)

Career WAR: 24.8 (8.3/162)

Ohtani accepted a 1 year, $30M salary to avoid arbitration for the final time, setting up what could be the most anticipated season for a player heading toward free agency in MLB history. Spotrac took on the exercise of trying to properly value this unicorn player last June, coming up with multiple ways to slice this negotiation, maxing out in the 8 year, $440M range for better or worse. Many (rightfully) believe Ohtani will become MLB’s first $500M player - but for which franchise?

2023 PREDICTION: No extension. Ohtani hits the open market, signing a 10 year, $450M deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Juan Soto (Padres, OF, 24)

Career WAR: 23.2 (6.1/162)

Soto and the Padres avoided arbitration on a $23M salary for the upcoming season. The 24-year-old still has one more trip through arbitration next offseason before hitting the open market. Despite a lackluster finish to 2022 upon his move to San Diego, Soto’s stock remains near the top of the game. He projects to a $33M per year deal in our system - though his 2023 salary places him more in the $38M range. Aaron Judge’s deal in NY is the obvious barometer here.

2023 PREDICTION: No extension. Soto will have the luxury of waiting to see what the Mets do with Pete Alonso, the Blue Jays do with Vlad Jr., and the world does with Shohei Ohtani next winter. He can use 2023 as a way to reestablish his greatness in our minds, and bank off of it this time next year, likely in the $450M range.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays, 1B, 23)

Career WAR: 13.4 (4.3/162)

Guerrero Jr. has compiled 80 home runs and 208 RBIs in his past 320 games, developing into every bit the player Toronto wanted him to be. He’s also only 23 years old, with two more offseasons of arbitration ahead of him, set to earn $14.5M on his latest agreement with the Blue Jays. Can he keep his large physical frame in well enough shape to make this production last a full career? He’s a 12 year, $425M player in our system, all things included.

2023 PREDICTION: The Blue Jays strike early with Vlad, locking him into a 10 year, $350M deal.

Logan Webb (Giants, SP, 26)

Career WAR: 8.4 (3.6/162)

The Giants’ undisputed ace avoided his first arbitration filing for a $4.5M salary in 2023, putting him on track for a $22.5M valuation long-term, and $27M for his arbitration career. Will a 5 year, $72M extension work for both sides here (3 years, $27M through 2025, then 2 years, $45M for his first two years of free agency? This hands Webb a strong payout, and gets him back to the open market around age 30.

2023 PREDICTION: The Giants saved about $600M in contracts they were hoping to reel in this offseason. Webb gets a piece of that pie, locking in a 5 year, $60M contract to slightly push past Sandy Alcantara’s (value) deal in Miami.

Kyle Tucker (Astros, OF, 26)

Career WAR: 12.8 (3.1/162)

One of the most underrated players in the game should benefit financially from Houston moving on from Correa, Springer, etc in past years. The 26-year-old is amidst his first arbitration deliberations as we speak, projected to earn around $6M according to our valuation. This puts him on track for a $30M per year long-term extension.

2023 PREDICTION: The Astros read the room during the arbitration filings and understand they should just get ahead of this monster before it eats them alive. Rafael Devers’ 10 year, $314M contract hits about right here.

Pete Alonso (Mets, 1B, 28)

Career WAR: 14.2 (4.3/162)

Alonso continues to improve his overall resume, putting himself in serious contention for the next blockbuster contract in NY. The Mets avoided Arbitration 2 at a healthy $14.5M price point, putting him in line for a $36M per year long-term extension, which also aligns with our $37.1M valuation. Alonso has one more trip through arbitration next offseason before becoming free agent eligible after 2024.

2023 PREDICTION: Shouldn’t he just get the Correa offer? Maybe, but this scenario’s been too quiet to assume anything is in the works right now. However, Francisco Lindor’s contract was announced on Opening Day two years ago, so maybe Steve Cohen is just waiting for the stage to be set. 10 years, $350M should get this done.

Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals, SS, 22)

Career WAR: 0.8 (0.9/162)

The Royals appear poised to start locking in their young core (with a future Braves roster in mind). Witt should be the first benefactor of this thinking after a strong rookie campaign (31 doubles, 20 homers, 6 triples, 80 RBIs, 30 stolen bases). Ke’Bryan Hayes’ 8 year, $70M deal in Pittsburgh should be a fair baseline for Witt, who enters 2023 two years younger than Hayes was when he locked in his deal. Hayes will earn $41M through his final 5 years of team control, then $35M for the next 4 seasons. Braves’ OF Michael Harris will see $35M through his 5 year control span, then $67M for the next 5 seasons.

2023 PREDICTION: The Royals lock in Bobby Witt Jr. to a 6 year, $60M extension, plus 2 club options through 2030 that can max the deal out at $100M, while still allowing him to hit the open market at age 30.

Adley Rutschman (Orioles, C, 25)

Career WAR: 5.2 (7.5/162)

A do-it-all catcher already doing it all in one season? Just pay him whatever he asks for, Baltimore. The list of catchers currently on a pre-arbitration extension is zero, so we’re breaking new ground here no matter what the end result winds up being. Wander Franco’s 11 year, $182M extension in Tampa seems about the only comparable here, so why not?

2023 PREDICTION: The Orioles slow play this, hoping to confirm that they have a few young players ready to take that next step, formulating a true core to build around for years to come. This blockbuster extension comes next winter, but maybe at a cost.

Julio Urias (Dodgers, SP, 26)

Career WAR: 13.2 (3.7/162)

Urias remains one of the more underrated starters in the game, despite back to back Top 7 finishes for the NL Cy Young (3rd in 2022). He avoided his final year of arbitration on a $14.25M salary, placing him at a $24Mish valuation for a long-term extension. 6 years, $150M should be the starting point, but a trip to the open market next winter with multiple teams bidding him up could really drive this price north.

2023 PREDICTION: The Dodgers may be holding all of their chips (and tax dollars) for a run at Shohei Ohtani next offseason. Allowing Urias to hit the open market would be a mistake, but we bet they get something done here once the season starts, keeping him at the $14.25M price tag for 2023. 6 years, $150M sounds fair.

Aaron Nola (Phillies, SP, 29)

Career WAR: 29.6 (5.0/162)

After a few years that had many of us wondering if he was already in decline, Nola jumped back to the top of the mountain last year, compiling a 6.0 WAR, with 235 strikeouts, and a 125 ERA+ in 32 starts. He’s on an expiring contract for 2023, set to earn $16M, but there’s an easy path to him doubling that for the foreseeable future.

2023 PREDICTION: The Phillies lock in Nola to a 6 year, $160M extension through 2029, getting a little bit of a break on his tax salary for this clear window of contention.

Our annual NFL Roster Bubble piece offers a position-by-position look at players that enter the 2023 offseason with some form of question mark surrounding their roster status. Our look at players who may be in line for a trade, release, or even retirement in the coming weeks, including the financial ramifications surrounding these type of moves going forward.

QUARTERBACKS

Marcus Mariota (ATL, 29)

2023 Cap: $14,500,000

Mariota left the Falcons late in the year as he dealt with knee issues, but Atlanta was ready to hand the reins over to Desmond Ridder anyway. There’s a $3M roster bonus on his 2023 salary due March 19th, & a release prior to it will free up $12M of space ($2.5M of dead cap).

Aaron Rodgers (GB, 39)

2023 Cap: $34,875,000

Well the Packers certainly aren’t releasing him ($99.7M of dead cap), so this is clearly a conversation about a trade or retirement (ignoring the fact for now that he probably just ends up back in Green Bay for 1 more year?). We’ve detailed all of the options here, but the most plausible scenario is that Rodgers is traded at the start of the 2023 league year. This move means $40.3M of dead cap for the Packers in 2023 (an $8.69M cap loss), but a chance to load up on 2023 draft picks, $40.7M over 2024 cap savings, and $144M cash coming off of their future books. Rodgers would bring cap hits of $14.6M, $32.5M, $51.1M, & $45.2M to a new team if traded.

Quickly, there’s of course a scenario where a trade or retirement is processed after June 1st (though 2023 draft picks wouldn’t be involved). In this case, the Packers’ dead cap would split into $15.8M for 2023, $24.4M for 2024, offering $15.79M of savings on June 2nd.

Jordan Love (GB, 24)

2023 Cap: $3,940,189

Does Love have trade value? He’s entering Year 4 of his rookie deal, set to earn a fully guaranteed $2.3M against a $3.9M cap hit. Green Bay needs to decide on his $16Mish 5th year option for 2024 this May. A trade this March frees up $2.3M of cap, but it feels like it might be his time to take the reins.

Matt Ryan (IND, 37)

2023 Cap: $35,205,882

$12M of Ryan’s $19.2M 2023 salary is already fully guaranteed. Another $7.2M of it, plus a $10M roster bonus locks in on March 17th. The Colts are in a bit of a transition period, despite a handful of extra large contracts on the books. With $17.2M of cap space to be freed up, releasing Ryan before the March 17th vesting date might be their best path forward, even if it means paying him $12M cash on the way out the door (subject to offset language which could reduce this by season end).

Derek Carr (LV, 31)

2023 Cap: $34,875,000

Carr holds a full no-trade clause and a February 15th vesting date on $40.4M of future salary guarantee. The Raiders can release him prior to this date at just a $5.625M dead cap charge ($29.25M saved). A trade would offer the same financial ramifications, but it would be a handshake agreement until March 15th, when the new league year officially opens. His contract would carry cap hits of $33M (guaranteed), $42M ($7.5M guaranteed), & $41.3M (non-guaranteed) if traded. It seems more and more likely that an outright release is in the cards here.

Jameis Winston (NO, 29)

2023 Cap: $15,600,000

$5.8M of Winston’s 2023 salary fully guarantees March 17th. He missed time due to injury, then was passed up on in favor of Andy Dalton to finish out the 2022 season. It seems unlikely the cap-light Saints will stick with this contract, but an early release only frees up $4.4M of space ($11.2M dead cap). Would a pay cut that aligns with his guaranteed money be best for both?

Zach Wilson (NYJ, 23)

2023 Cap: $9,586,549

Wilson was outplayed by Mike White in 2022, putting his immediate future in question. He’s fully guaranteed at $9.3M over the next two seasons, so there’s no scenario where an outright release is business-friendly here, but packaging a draft pick with him to find a trade partner certainly seems plausible. A Pre June 1st trade represents a $1.8M cap loss, while a move after 6/2 opens up $3.85M of space.

Mitchell Trubisky (PIT, 28)

2023 Cap: $10,625,000

The Steelers likely saw enough positives from Kenny Pickett in 2022 to give him a full shake next season. Trubisky’s $10.625M cap seems too rich for a backup option, and Pittsburgh could use the $8M of space a release would open up.

Trey Lance (SF, 22)

2023 Cap: $9,301,439

Only because many will ask. Lance is fully guaranteed at $9M over the next two seasons, but his traded contract holds caps of $3.7M, $5.3M + a 5th year option. If the 49ers are offered a haul of picks, there’s a world where this is a win/win situation for both sides of a trade here. But it seems much more likely that both Lance and Brock Purdy are nursed back to full health, and are given a chance to compete for the 2023 QB1 job.

Tom Brady (TB, 45)

2023 Cap: $35,104,000

Technically Brady isn’t under contract for 2023, but we’re adding him because we expect him to be soon. If his retirement is officially official, the Bucs may ask Brady to sign a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1.165M minimum contract for the upcoming season. This will allow Tampa Bay to delay filing his retirement papers until June 2nd, splitting up the $35.1M of dead cap into $10.776M for 2023, $24.3M for 2024.

Ryan Tannehill (TEN, 34)

2023 Cap: $36,600,000

Tannehill is entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $27M (the traded value). A Pre June 1st trade or release opens up $17.8M of space - but do the Titans have a replacement plan?

Carson Wentz (WSH, 30)

2023 Cap: $26,176,470

Wentz didn’t do much to sway the doubters back in his favor in his 8 games played last season. It seems a long shot that he’ll see any of the remaining 2 years, $53.4M, and with a $5M roster bonus due March 17th, we’ll likely see quick action. There’s no dead cap associated with this contract, so Washington will free up all $26.1M here.

RUNNING BACKS

Cordarrelle Patterson (ATL, 31)

2023 Cap: $5,500,000

Tyler Allgeier has deservedly taken a number of attempts away from him, so there’s a chance the Falcons look to get a little younger and cheaper for Patterson’s reduced role. There’s $1.75M to be saved on a Pre 6/1 move, $4.25M if it’s a Post 6/1 designation.

Gus Edwards (BAL, 27)

2023 Cap: $5,634,000

Edwards missed all of 2021 & half of 2022, though he managed to average nearly 5 yards per  carry when active last season. He’s a player of value when healthy, but it stands to reason that Baltimore could opt to free up the $4.3M of cap here.

Nyheim Hines (BUF, 26)

2023 Cap: $4,790,000

Hines certainly made his impact felt on the Bills’ special teams, but wasn’t much of a factor in their offensive schemes down the stretch. Will a non-guaranteed $4.79M salary be too rich to keep going forward? There’s no dead cap on the deal for Buffalo to deal with.

Joe Mixon (CIN, 26)

2023 Cap: $12,761,754

Mixon’s overall production dipped last season after a career-best 2021 campaign. Samaje Perine held his own in a relief role, but is slated for free agency next season. Will the Bengals look to bring him back at a respectable price and save on Mixon’s big deal? There’s $7.2M cap to be freed up Pre 6/1, $10M if processed after. Mixon would carry cap hits of $10.1M, $10.3M with him to a new team if a trade is the way forward.

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL, 27)

2023 Cap: $16,720,000

This was always the line of demarcation year in Elliott’s contract, so despite plenty of noise coming out of Dallas that there’s mutual interest in continuing, he’ll begin the offseason as a bubble candidate. Zeke holds $11.86M of dead cap against his $16.72M figure, so there’s $4.86M of space to open up with a Pre 6/1 move. That increases to $10.9M with a Post 6/1 trade or release.

Chase Edmonds (DEN, 26)

2023 Cap: $5,920,000

Edmonds averaged 4.8 yards per carry in 5 games with the Broncos after being acquired via Miami in the Bradley Chubb deal. He’s a complimentary piece to the puzzle, so a near $6M cap hit ($0 dead cap) may be too rich to keep around.

Aaron Jones (GB, 28)

2023 Cap: $20,020,000

Jones can still produce at a high level, but any 28-year-old running back entering a season at a $20M+ cap hit is contractually obligated to be on this list. His traded contract carries cap hits of $16M, $12M. If the Packers need to release him, there’s $10.44M of space to be freed up by doing so prior to a $7M March 17th roster bonus being paid out.

Jonathan Taylor (IND, 24)

2023 Cap: $5,116,482

We’ve started to hear rumblings about the possibility of the Colts finding a trade partner for JT as he enters a contract year. A proven performance escalator has increased his final year salary north of $4M, putting him on the books at a $5.1M cap charge. Would the draft pick haul + $4M of cap savings be enough to twist Indy’s arm here?

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC, 23)

2023 Cap: $3,443,228

The Chiefs need to decide on CEH’s 5th year option by May, but may also seek another team to take on his fully guaranteed $2M salary for 2023 in the process. Isiah Pacheco is clearly ready for a bigger role, but with Jerick McKinnon slated for free agency, keeping CEH in the fold through 2023 still has value for the Chiefs.

Brandon Bolden (LV, 33)

2023 Cap: $2,850,000

Bolden held down a limited role in 2022, & if the plan is to bring back Josh Jacobs on what could be an inflated franchise tag figure, freeing up the $2.2M of cap space here will come in handy.

Dalvin Cook (MIN, 27)

2023 Cap: $14,101,272

This was always going to be the line of demarcation for Cook’s contract, as the early guarantees have gone by the wayside and the cap hits far outpace the dead cap figures. $2M of 2023 salary does become fully guaranteed on March 17th, but a release prior to that can open up over $7.8M of cap space. If a trade is in the works, Cook will bring cap hits of $11M ($2M guaranteed), $12.5M (non-guaranteed), & $13.5M (non-guaranteed) along with him.

Leonard Fournette (TB, 28)

2023 Cap: $8,470,576

$2M of Fournette’s 2023 salary is already fully guaranteed, and another $2M locks in March 19th. If the Bucs are willing to pay that initial $2M to move on, they can open up $5.4M of cap space in the process.

Antonio Gibson (WSH, 24)

2023 Cap: $3,028,843

Gibson was thrust back into a bigger spotlight when Brian Robinson was forced to miss the start of the season due to injury. He’s rounding into a much more versatile back, catching nearly 50 balls in each of the past two seasons, but if Robinson is set to take over the reins full-time, the Commanders can open up $2.7M of cap space by moving on from Gibson.

WIDE RECEIVERS

DeAndre Hopkins (ARI, 30)

2023 Cap: $30,750,000

Hopkins has hit the trade hot stove of late, though that’s cooled a bit of late. The deal holds $34.3M over the next two seasons, but none of it is guaranteed, and Hopkins is likely looking to reup to a price point that more aligns with Tyreek, Davante, etc… If the Cardinals aren’t willing to oblige, there’s $8.15M of cap to be freed up with a Pre 6/1 trade out of town.

Robbie Anderson (ARI, 29)

2023 Cap: $12,000,000

Anderson caught 7 passes for 76 yards in 10 games with the Cardinals after being traded over from the Panthers. Arizona can free up all $12M here.

Isaiah McKenzie (BUF, 27)

2023 Cap: $2,925,000

McKenzie’s targets seemed to lessen down the stretch, putting his $2.225M salary on notice. That’s the amount cap-strapped Buffalo can free up by moving on before his $250,000 roster bonus hits on March 17th.

Tyler Boyd (CIN, 28)

2023 Cap: $10,285,280

Boyd still produces plenty in the wide open Bengals’ offense, but with Burrow, Higgins, & Chase all in line for contract updates, he may simply be a victim of the cap/cash bubble here. His 1 year, $8.9M contract might be tradeable, but that’s the number Cincy can free up with a trade or release this offseason.

Tee Higgins (CIN, 24)

2023 Cap: $3,961,416

Higgins is a premier wide receiver, so putting him on the bubble list seems wrong in every fashion. But there’s a very plausible chance that he enters contract talks with the Bengals seeking far more than Cincy is willing to offer him in his current role. If negotiations break down, there’s at least an outside chance that the Bengals start to scout his trade value, assessing their best path forward. He’s a $20M WR in our system while in Ja’Marr Chase’s shadow - what would he be as a true WR1?

K.J. Hamler (DEN, 23)

2023 Cap: $2,270,905

Hamler’s hit the IR each of his first three NFL seasons. It seems likely that Denver simply cuts their losses here, freeing up $1.5M of much needed cap space in doing so.

Brandin Cooks (HOU, 29)

2023 Cap: $26,463,302

Cooks said his goodbyes at the trade deadline - but wasn’t traded. He said his goodbyes again after Week 18. Will he be given his ticket out of Houston? An outright release is out of the question ($34.2M dead cap, $18M cash). His traded contract comes with 2 years, $35M, $18M fully guaranteed, with cap hits of $18.5M, $16.5M respectively. The Texans would take on $16.2M of dead cap this year, freeing up $10.2M of space.

Keenan Allen (LAC, 30)

2023 Cap: $21,700,000

Allen missed 7 costly games last season, but was on pace for his usual 100+ catch, 1,000+ yard, 6+ TD campaign prior to his injury. His cap hit soars to $21.7M next year, then $25.8M in 2024. $1.5M of his 2023 salary is fully guaranteed, but it seems plausible that the Chargers could secure a trade partner ($19M, $23.1M) if they sought a move. A Pre 6/1 trade would open up $16.3M of cap space for LAC.

Adam Thielen (MIN, 32)

2023 Cap: $19,967,647

Thielen signed a revised deal last March to secure his roster spot for the 2022 campaign. We’re not so sure that happens again this time around (despite Thielen-like production once again last season). His entire $11,817,647 salary becomes fully guaranteed on March 17th, so Minnesota will need to make a move quickly here. An outright release opens up $6.4M of cap space.

DeVante Parker (NE, 30)

2023 Cap: $6,206,250

Parker secured 31 catches for 539 yards and 3 TDs after being acquired from Miami last offseason. There’s $6.2M of cap to be freed up here if he’s traded or released, but for now, this one seems unlikely.

Kendrick Bourne (NE, 27)

2023 Cap: $6,872,539

Bourne was wildly under-utilized in 2022, so it’s fair to wonder if the addition of Bill O’Brien to run the show now could change that. There’s $5.4M to be freed up here with a move, but it seems like Bourne will be back in the fold for 2023.

Michael Thomas (NO, 29)

2023 Cap: $13,558,588

The Saints moved some numbers around prior to the 2022 season ending to set things up for March. It appears that the plan is to designate Thomas a Post 6/1 release, carry his $13.5M cap hit until then, then take on dead cap hits of $11.9M in 2023, and $14.1M in 2024, saving $1.5M against the upcoming cap (but not until June 2nd).

Kenny Golladay (NYG, 29)

2023 Cap: $21,400,000

Golladay has 43 catches & 1 TD in 26 games since joining the Giants (earning $36M for his efforts), and yet this story can’t totally be closed yet. A $4.5M roster bonus, due March 17th, is already fully guaranteed. Will the Giants find a trade partner to take this contract off of their hands ($18M cap hit this and next year)? If not, they may be paying a $4.5M parting gift to free up the roster spot, & $11.2M of cap space.

Corey Davis (NYJ, 28)

2023 Cap: $11,166,667

The quarterback play certainly hasn’t helped, but Davis hasn’t been able to separate himself much in two years with the Jets, despite a healthy $27M payout. None of his $10.5M for 2023 is guaranteed, and the Jets can open up all of it with a trade or outright release. Is he a piece in a potential Aaron Rodgers deal?

Braxton Berrios (NYJ, 28)

2023 Cap: $8,232,500

The Jets can’t cut ALL of their wide receivers, but a player who caught 18 balls last season and can free up $5.5M of cap space this offseason at least needs to be mentioned here. A new offensive coordinator might see Berrios’ usage differently.

Denzel Mims (NYJ, 25)

2023 Cap: $1,728,905

Mims has 42 catches and 0 TDs in 30 career games as a Jet. New York can open up $1.35M of cap space by moving on this March.

D'Wayne Eskridge (SEA, 25)

2023 Cap: $1,623,683

Eskridge just hasn’t found his footing in this Seattle offense, grabbing just 17 passes in 20 games. An early March trade/release frees up $778,773.

Brandon Aiyuk (SF, 24)

2023 Cap: $3,987,245

The 49ers have plenty of questions to answer this offseason, and what to do with Aiyuk probably isn’t one of them - but it might be. There’s a potential “sell-high” move to be made here, cashing in on Aiyuk’s career-high 78 catches, 1,015 yards, and 8 TDs. Will a team like the Bears view him as a potentially untapped weapon? There’s $2.3M of cap space to be opened up by shipping Aiyuk out this offseason - but for now, it still seems unlikely.

Mike Evans (TB, 29)

2023 Cap: $23,698,500

Evans is entering a contract year. Are the Buccaneers in a position to pay a premium price on a 29-year-old wide receiver? Will Evans be willing to play out an expiring contract with Blaine Gabbert at the helm? There’s at least a chance this relationship begins to pull apart this offseason as Tampa Bay enters a different window. Moving on Pre 6/1 opens up only $2.3M of cap, while a trade after that can free up $14.5M of space.

Robert Woods (TEN, 30)

2023 Cap: $14,616,666

Woods’ return from injury saw him average 3 catches, 31 yards per game. It’s going to be tough to justify that kind of production against a near $15M cap figure next season. Tennessee can free up $12M of space with an early trade or release.

TIGHT ENDS

Gerald Everett (LAC, 28)

2023 Cap: $8,000,000

Everett has been rumored to be on the bubble despite having $1.5M of his 2023 salary already fully guaranteed. Will the Chargers offering him the parting gift to free up $5.5M of cap space?

Durham Smythe (MIA, 27)

2023 Cap: $4,250,000

There’s more to Smythe’s game than catching a few balls a week, and it’s not fair to devalue him in that manner, but the Dolphins have cap to free up this offseason, and a move here would open up $3.5M.

Noah Fant (SEA, 25)

2023 Cap: $6,850,000

Fant was a piece of the Russell Wilson trade, catching 50 balls and 4 TDs in 2022. He holds a fully guaranteed $6.85M 5th year option salary in 2023, so any kind of move out of Seattle would have to come via trade. Will Dissly appears to have a stronghold on the primary TE role right now, but the Seahawks may opt to offer Geno Smith as many weapons as possible next season, even at a bit of an overpay.

Cameron Brate (TB, 31)

2023 Cap: $4,985,000

Brate signed a restructured deal to remain in the fold for 2022, but the Bucs need cap space wherever they can find it right now. An outright release only frees up $2M, but every little bit helps here.

Logan Thomas (WSH, 31)

2023 Cap: $8,675,000

Injuries & inconsistencies haven’t allowed Thomas to recreate his breakout 2020 season since then, and his contract is now right side up in terms of dead cap. The Commanders can open up $5.175M of space by moving on, but with a new QB likely coming into the picture, his veteran experience might be deemed too important to walk away from.

OFFENSIVE LINEMEN

Rodney Hudson (ARI, C, 34)

2023 Cap: $4,810,000

Hudson appears to be on the way out in one way or another (release or retirement), as the Cardinals have already dropped his 2023 base salary down to a near minimum $2M. Arizona will carry his $4.8M cap hit through June 2nd, then take on dead hits of $1.76M in 2023, $3.52M in 2024, opening up $3M of space at that point.

Mitch Morse (BUF, C, 30)

2023 Cap: $11,160,000

Morse took a pay cut in 2021, then agreed to a restructured extension last March that locked him in through the 2022 season. $2.36M of his 2023 compensation fully guarantees on March 19th, but the Bills can open up $6.16M of space by moving on prior to that date.

Cody Whitehair (CHI, G, 30)

2023 Cap: $14,100,000

The Bears don’t need cap space this March, but they need to improve this roster immediately. Whitehair’s deal is a holdover from the previous regime, and it carries a non-guaranteed $20.15M over the next two seasons. Chicago can open up $5.8M of room if they decide to upgrade here.

Lucas Patrick (CHI, C, 29)

2023 Cap: $5,382,500

Patrick battled a toe injury that limited his 2022 season to just 7 games. Sam Mustipher filled in well in his absence, and is slated for restricted free agency this March. Moving on from Patrick opens up $3.9 of cap - enough to cover Mustipher’s tender.

La'el Collins (CIN, RT, 30)

2023 Cap: $9,384,306

If the Bengals plan is to continue to build this O-Line up through the draft, Collins could be a one-and-done candidate in Cincy. A Pre June 1st release frees up $6M of much needed cap space, but can Cincinnati afford to be thin in the trenches?

Tyron Smith (DAL, OT, 32)

2023 Cap: $17,605,000

Smith enters a contract year, set to earn $13.6M against a $17.6M hit. He was moved to the right side of the line after returning from injury, making way for Tyler Smith (no relation) to take on the blindside role. There’s $9.5M of cap space to open up here if the Cowboys decide to move on, but it still seems like a big if right now.

Graham Glasgow (DEN, G, 30)

2023 Cap: $14,000,000

Glasgow is entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn $11M against a $14M hit. There’s a $1M roster bonus due March 19th, and Denver can open up all $11M by moving on.

Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET, G, 29)

2023 Cap: $12,448,194

Vatai has missed action each of the past three seasons, including all of 2022. The Lions can open up $6.5M with a Pre 6/1 release, though Evan Brown his replacement this season is also slated for free agency this March.

David Bakhtiari (GB, OT, 31)

2023 Cap: $28,789,035

Bakhtiari has seen action in just 24 games over the past 3 seasons, but can still hold his own when healthy. There’s a $9.5M roster bonus due March 19th, and a Pre 6/1 release only frees up $5.6M of cap, but he still sits squarely on the bubble for now.

A.J. Cann (HOU, G, 31)

2023 Cap: $6,220,588

With a new QB coming to town, the Texans probably won’t deplete their offensive line too much, but with $5.2M of cap to be freed up here, there’s at least a chance Houston flips this contract for a rookie deal.

Matt Feiler (LAC,G, 30)

2023 Cap: $8,500,000

Feiler’s overall production dipped in 2022, putting his $6.5M salary on notice (all of which will clear with a release). There’s a good chance the Chargers will spend multiple draft picks on shoring up the O-Line as they prepare to back the Brinks truck up for QB Justin Herbert.

Andre James (LV, C, 25)

2023 Cap: $6,980,000

James enters a contract year in 2023, having started 13 games for the Raiders last season. Vegas can open up $5M of cap by moving on, paving the way for 2022 3rd rounder Dylan Parham to take over the reins.

Trenton Brown (NE, OT, 29)

2023 Cap: $12,161,760

Brown’s cap hit jumps up over $8M next season, with only $1.25M of dead cap pinned against it. He started 14 games for New England last season, so an outright release doesn’t seem likely, despite $11M of cap space to be opened up. We’d bet on a restructured contract with a 1-year guarantee that lowers the 2023 hit.

Andrus Peat (NO, G, 29)

2023 Cap: $18,371,000

Back-to-back restructures keep this contract difficult to move off from, but it seems a foregone conclusion anyway. A Pre 6/1 release only frees up $1.3M of cap space, while a Post 6/1 designation would open up $11.825M. The Saints have had players agree to base salary pay cuts in order to help facilitate a Post 6/1 move, and this feels like one of those situations. Dropping Peat’s deal down to the minimum for 2023 lowers his cap hit to $7.71M, a much more tenable number to have to carry through June 1st.

Duane Brown (NYJ, OT, 37)

2023 Cap: $11,281,882

Brown’s cap hit increases over $7.6M for 2023. He struggled in pass protection this past season, but with a potential splash veteran QB signing coming in, New York may opt for experience on their O-Line. A Pre 6/1 release frees up $5M, while a Post 6/1 designation makes it $9.7M opened up in June.

Gabe Jackson (SEA, G, 31)

2023 Cap: $11,262,223

Jackson seems like the odd man out on an offensive line that really progressed in 2022. Moving on from the 31-year-old can open up $6.5M of cap space for Seattle.

Donovan Smith (TB, OT, 29)

2023 Cap: $17,900,000

The Bucs will face some pain this offseason as they morph into life without TB12. Releasing your starting left tackle isn’t an ideal place to start, but the $9.95M of space to be had is certainly much needed. The 29 year old is entering a contract year, set to earn $15.25M cash in 2023.

Shaq Mason (TB, G, 29)

2023 Cap: $9,517,168

Mason played well enough to stick for 2023, but the Buccaneers are going to have to make moves they don’t necessarily want to make to get cap neutral this March. This could mean an extension for the 29-year-old to keep his prorated dead cap spread out, and keep him in the fold for what could be a Blaine Gabbert run offense. If he’s released, a Pre 6/1 move opens up $5.2M of space.

Taylor Lewan (TEN, OT, 31)

2023 Cap: $14,841,000

Lewan enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $14.8M. All of it can come off of the books with an outright release or trade. 

Chase Roullier (WSH, C, 29)

2023 Cap: $12,420,000

Roullier has played just 10 games in the past 2 seasons, putting his $12M+ cap hit on notice. A Pre June 1st release opens up $4.32M of space, while a Post 6/1 move frees up $8.3M.

INTERIOR DEFENDERS

Ed Oliver (BUF, 26)

2023 Cap: $10,753,000

Oliver enters his fully guaranteed 5th year option season and was very much in consideration for a long-term extension this time last year. But career low production in 2022 leaves his future in Buffalo very much in question. If the Bills can locate a trade partner, look for them to make the move. All $10.753M of his salary would transfer to the new team.

Tim Settle (BUF, 25)

2023 Cap: $4,945,000

Settle saw action in 36% of the snaps he was available to take, offering up 19 tackles, 1 sack, & 1 forced fumble during that time. His $4.9M cap figure for 2023 isn’t dauting, but the Bills need cap space, and there’s $2.2M to be freed up here prior to March 19th, when $1.9M of his salary fully guarantees.

Michael Brockers (DET, 32)

2023 Cap: $13,975,000

Brockers enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $10M in 2023. He missed most of 2022 with injury, compiling depth production at best in the 6 games he was active for. The Lions will pick up $10M of cap savings by moving in this March.

Roy Robertson-Harris (JAX, 29)

2023 Cap: $10,133,334

Robertson-Harris enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn $7.8M. He’s been consistently solid for the better part of 6 NFL seasons, but with a cap hit north of $10M on the books, and cap-strapped Jacksonville able to free up $7.8M of space by moving on, he has to be considered a bubble player for now.

Fletcher Cox (PHI, 32)

2023 Cap: $10,000,000

While he’s “technically” under contract for 2023, his $1.5M cash salary is a dummy year that allows Philly to carry his contract through June 1st, splitting his dead cap up into $2.5M for 2023, $7.5M for 2024. That of course is under the assumption that Cox and the Eagles don’t come to agreement on an extension in the coming week.

Quinton Jefferson (SEA, 29)

2023 Cap: $6,485,000

One of Jefferson or Shelby Harris probably falls off of this roster for cap purposes as the Seahawks look to get younger and faster on their D-Line. Both players had respectable 2022 campaigns, and with Jefferson on an expiring contract that carries $4.2M of cash/cap to be moved, he makes the list as a potential trade target. Especially as he’s spent time on the interior in 3-4s and on the edge in 4-3 defenses.

EDGE DEFENDERS

Dennis Gardeck (ARI, OLB, 28)

2023 Cap: $4,216,666

Gardeck and Markus Golden enter the offseason in similar situations with near identical finances attached to them. Moving on from Golden opens up $3M of cap, while releasing Gardeck frees up $2.8M. 

A.J. Epenesa (BUF, DE, 24)

2023 Cap: $1,870,050

Epenesa hasn’t rounded into the player the Bills were hoping he’d become, and he enters a contract season in 2023. There’s only $1.4M of cap to be opened up here, but with Buffalo’s current financial situation, every little bit helps.

Romeo Okwara (DET, DE, 27)

2023 Cap: $14,500,000

He’s seen action in just 9 games since 2021, making another $14.5M cap hit tough to justify. Detroit can open up $7.5M of cap space with an early March release.

Mario Addison (HOU, DE, 35)

2023 Cap: $4,423,521

While the cap is certainly feasible, Addison finds himself on a team very much hitting the reset button. With $3.4M to be freed up, he may be looking to latch on with a contender in the next few weeks.

Jerry Hughes (HOU, DE, 34)

2023 Cap: $6,250,000

The 34-year-old posted 9 sacks, 33 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, and an interception in 2022, proving he’s still a legitimate asset, even in the toughest of situations. There’s a world where a team values his $5M non-guaranteed salary in a trade market this offseason, and the Texans should be listening.

Frank Clark (KC, DE, 29)

2023 Cap: $30,175,000

Clark signed a restructured extension this past March to lower his cap hit and stay in the fold. He responded with a Frank Clark type season (5 sacks, 40 tackles), but now sits with a $30.1M cap hit for the upcoming campaign. With Chris Jones poised for a new deal, can the Chiefs extend Clark again? Will they bite the bullet on a restructure that pushes dead cap down the line? This is a situation to watch - and many teams will be.

Chandler Jones (LV, DE, 32)

2023 Cap: $19,312,000

This one seems pretty unlikely, as the only way out of town for Jones is a trade, and he’s coming off one of his poorer career seasons. There’s an $8.5M roster bonus for March already fully guaranteed, and he carries a 2 year, $34M contract ($17M/$17M) with him to a new team if traded, freeing up $9.7M for Las Vegas.

Leonard Williams (NYG, DE, 28)

2023 Cap: $32,260,000

After 2 extremely productive seasons in 2020-2021, Williams’ production dipped off slightly - mostly stemming from 5 weeks missed. There are a few reasons Williams finds himself on this list, and his inability to make a difference on the field isn’t one of them. 1) The Giants have a LOT of mouths to feed offensively. 2) Dexter Lawrence is in his extension window. 3) Williams is on an expiring contract with a loaded cap figure. It just may be the wrong time to extend Williams on this roster, making him a very attractive trade candidate this March. He holds a 1 year, $18M (non-guaranteed) contract if moved, freeing up over $12M of cap for the Giants.

Carl Lawson (NYJ, DE, 27)

2023 Cap: $15,333,334

Lawson has faced a tough road injury wise since joining the Jets back in 2021. With all of the guaranteed money now off the books, and $15M to be saved on his 2023 cap hit, it stands to reason New York will move off this deal, even if the intention is to bring him back on something fresher.

Bud Dupree (TEN, OLB, 29)

2023 Cap: $20,200,000

The Titans have work to do on their cap table, and Dupree hasn’t approached living up to the $34M he’s earned from them over the past two seasons, but $1.25M of his 2023 salary is fully guaranteed right now. It’s rare to see teams hand out cash payments to players they release, but it certainly happens. If that becomes the case here, a Pre 6/1 cut can open up $10.6M of much needed cap space.

LINEBACKERS

Malik Harrison (BAL, 25)

2023 Cap: $1.3M

The 3rd rounder back in 2020 has seen limited action in 3 seasons, but - as Ravens’ linebackers tend to do - has also made a name for himself in that span. With Roquan Smith paid, and Patrick Queen trending in that direction soon, finding a trade partner for Harrison in the final year of his rookie deal holds some logic.

Eric Kendricks (MIN, 31)

2023 Cap: $11,430,000

He can still fill up a stat-line with the best of them, but the Vikings need to begin the process of getting younger (and subsequently cheaper) especially on the defensive side of the ball. Kendricks’ expiring contract can open up $9.5M of much needed cap space for Minnesota, who may address this position fairly early in the April draft.

C.J. Mosley (NYJ, 30)

2023 Cap: $21,476,000

Mosley’s contract gets right side up for the first time this offseason, at least mildly putting him in consideration for being moved on from. The Jets can free up $6.5M with an early outright release, but doing so will leave a large hole in the middle of their defense. A base salary conversation can reduce the cap hit by $12.6M.

Myles Jack (PIT, 27)

2023 Cap: $11,250,000

The Steelers took a flier on Jack that included $8M last season, and $8M (non-guaranteed) for 2023. With Robert Spillane & Devin Bush headed to free agency, the cupboards are already pretty bare in the center of the Steelers’ defense. But getting out of this deal and starting over everywhere still makes sense.

Zach Cunningham (TEN, 28)

2023 Cap: $13,426,466

Cunningham missed 11 weeks due to injury, putting his $13M cap hit now on notice. Tennessee has cap to clear, and possible a roster to start turning over as well, meaning positions like this will probably be passed over for rental options. Moving off of this contract opens up almost $9M of space for the Titans.

CORNERBACKS

Shaquill Griffin (JAX, 28)

2023 Cap: $17,147,055

The Jags still have work to do to tinker with this roster and step to the next level in the AFC. That takes cap space, and Jacksonville is currently in the red in that regard. Moving on from Griffin’s expiring contract opens up $13.1M of space.

Jalen Ramsey (LAR, 28)

2023 Cap: $25,200,000

The Rams haven’t been shy about moving on from players a year earlier than we expect them to. Will Ramsey be the next version of this tactic? $12.5M of his 2023 salary is already fully guaranteed, but LAR can free up $5.6M of cap space with an early trade. For now, this seems highly unlikely.

Ahkello Witherspoon (PIT, 27)

2023 Cap: $5,482,500

Witherspoon missed most of 2022 due to injury, offering Cam Sutton & Levi Wallace a chance to collectively take that space. Sutton is slated for free agency, so it stands to reason that the Steelers would roll with a Wallace/Witherspoon combo next year, but there’s $4M to be saved here if not.

William Jackson (PIT, 30)

2023 Cap: $12,176,471

Acquired from Washington for a late round pick swap, a back injury kept Jackson from showing with Pittsburgh in 2022. He holds a non-guaranteed $12.1M next season including a $2.5M roster bonus due March 17th. 

Byron Jones (MIA, 31)

2023 Cap: $18,351,000

The guarantees fall off of this massive contract for the first time this offseason. With Xavien Howard now under contract, it feels like the Dolphins are at a point where they can move off of this deal, despite its minimal immediate savings ($3.5M).

SAFETIES

Chuck Clark (BAL, 27)

2023 Cap: $6,268,333

Clark enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $3.64M. With Kyle Hamilton waiting in the wings, his status for 2023 remains up in the air. The Ravens can free up $3.64M with a release or trade.

John Johnson (CLE, 27)

2023 Cap: $13,500,000

Johnson was a strong contributor in 16 2022 games (especially against the run) but with a fresh set of eyes taking over the Browns’ D, it stands to reason that a few notable pieces will be turned over. A Post 6/1 release can open up $9.75M of space for Cleveland (only $900,000 if Pre 6/1).

Eric Murray (HOU, 29)

2023 Cap: $5,357,500

Murray finished the season in a depth role for Houston, putting his $5.3M hit on notice. The Texans can open up $4M of space by moving on here.

Rayshawn Jenkins (JAX, 29)

2023 Cap: $10,250,000

Jenkins holds value on a young Jags roster, but his coverage numbers left plenty to be desired. His cap figure jumps north of $10M next season, and there’s $6.25M of cap space to be freed up by moving on Pre 6/1. 

Harrison Smith (MIN, 34)

2023 Cap: $19,127,636

At first glance, a near $20M cap hit for a 34 year old defensive back is usually a slam dunk roster cut. But Smith played some of the best ball of his career to finish out 2022, and his eventual replacement Lewis Cine is recovering from a serious leg injury. A Pre 6/1 release frees up $7.8M of cap space, while a Post 6/1 designation would eventually open up $15.2M. However a base salary restructure, maybe the most likely outcome here, can open up $10.8M of cap space, keeping him in the fold for 2023.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Cairo Santos (CHI, K, 32)

2023 Cap: $4,500,000

Santos finished 2022 with a 91% hit rate on field goals, but he missed 5 PATs last season, putting his $4.5M cap figure in question. The Bears aren’t in desperate need of cap space, but there’s $3M to be freed up here.

Harrison Butker (KC, K, 27)

2023 Cap: $5,105,266

Butker had an off year by his standards, making only 75% of his field goals, and 92% of his PATs in 2022, by far his worst output to date. The Chiefs will have cap decisions to make this March, and there’s nearly $3M of space to be opened up with a Pre 6/1 move here.

Jason Sanders (MIA, K, 27)

2023 Cap: $3,775,000

Sanders made less than 80% of his field goal attempts while going 41/44 on PATs last season. He’s now had back to back inconsistent years from longer range, putting his $3.775M salary on notice.

Ryan Succop (TB, K, 36)

2023 Cap: $4,500,000

Succop made 81% of his field goals (31/38) in 2022, but hit 24 out of 25 PATs last season. In a normal offseason we look right past his contract, but with Tampa in a bit of cap mess entering March, the $3.75M of space to be opened up has to be under consideration.

Joey Slye (WSH, K, 26)

2023 Cap: 2,350,000

Slye converted 83% of his field goals and 85% of his PATs in 2022. His $2.35M cap hit for 2023 isn’t daunting, but if the Commanders can find a replacement, they’ll certainly opt for the $1.85M in space.

Justin Rose wins the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am by three strokes. This is his first PGA Tour win in four years. Rose earns $1.62 million bringing 2023 season earnings to $2.06 million. Rose's career on-course earnings are now $59.2 million, keeping him at 8th all-time, but right behind Adam Scott for 7th.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Top 5

1. Justin Rose: $1,620,000

T2. Brendon Todd, Brandon Wu: $801,000

T4. Denny McCarthy, Keith Mitchell, Peter Malnati: $378,750

Full Results

2023 Tournament Earnings Leaders Update

1. Jon Rahm: $4,602,000

2. Max Homa: $4,015,805

3. Keegan Bradley: $3,533,524

4. Si Woo Kim: $2,694,889

5. Tom Kim: $2,584,485

Full List

With all due respect to Rui Hachimura and Noah Vonleh, we have our first big trade ahead of the 2023 NBA trade deadline. Roughly two days after requesting a trade from the Brooklyn Nets, Kyrie Irving is being sent to the Dallas Mavericks. Here are the particulars:

• Dallas acquires: Kyrie Irving, Markieff Morris
• Brooklyn acquires: Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, 2029 Dallas first-round pick, 2027 Dallas second-round pick, 2029 Dallas second-round pick (no protections on any of the picks)
• Brooklyn creates: $5.4 million Traded Player Exception (for Kyrie Irving) and $1.8 million Traded Player Exception (for Markieff Morris)

This is a massive deal with league-wide ramifications. Let’s break it down!

Dallas Mavericks

In a trade involving a superstar, it’s generally the team that ends up with said superstar who wins the trade. For Dallas, because that superstar is Kyrie Irving, there is a good deal of risk attached.

Irving is supremely talented. He’s right up there with the best scoring point guards in the league. Irving is also a more willing passer than he’s generally given credit for. And at the end of close games, Dallas now has a second option when teams load to Luka Doncic, which they’ve lacked without Jalen Brunson.

However, before we get to the off-court risks, there are some on-court worries for the Mavericks. Doncic is currently captaining arguably the most heliocentric offensive ship in the NBA. If Irving comes in and plays Mr. Spock to Doncic’s Captain Kirk, Dallas will be in good shape. If Irving and Doncic can’t mesh together, it’ll be like when an Android user joins the group text with a bunch of Apple users. It still works, but it’s a little more complicated, messier than anyone really likes and no one is really happy they’re in there.

The Dallas defense has now lost their best big wing defender. Lineups featuring Doncic, Irving and Christian Wood will have to be scoring monsters, because they’ll probably hand a lot of points back to the opponent. But it’s the dominant offensive pairing of Doncic and Irving that the Mavs are betting on making up for any defensive deficiencies.

Then you get to the off-court challenges…and there are many.

Sticking to the financials, the Mavericks are limited to offering Irving a two-year, roughly $80 million extension. That’s pretty far under his market value, even with question marks about his fit, age, injury history and off-court worries. The reason Dallas is limited in what they can offer now, is that for six months following a trade, a player can’t extend beyond the parameters allowed in an extend-and-trade deal, which are two years and 5% raises.

That means Irving will be a free agent this summer. The Mavs inherit his Bird rights, so they’ll be able to pay Irving whatever they can agree to. Irving and his camp will likely start out asking for a four-year, $210 million contract, if not the full five-year, $272 million maximum deal Irving will be eligible for.

It’s here where we should pause to say the Nets could have offered Irving something approaching that four-year number in an extension. Their reluctance to do so is what reportedly sparked Irving to request a trade in the first place. Brooklyn reportedly wanted some levels of protections in the deal that Irving found insulting.

The question facing Mavericks governor Mark Cuban and general manager Nico Harrison is not only how much they are willing to pay Irving, but how long they are willing to sign on to Irving for? On talent alone, Irving is worth a deal that averages north of $50 million per season. That true even as he’s turning 31 years old at the end of March.

But Irving has missed considerable time over the last eight seasons. Only in the 2016-17 season, his last with the Cleveland Cavaliers, has Irving played as many as 70 games. In four years with the Nets, he logged game counts of 20, 54, 29 and 40.

There’s a lengthy injury history with Irving that includes knee injuries and shoulder injuries. On top of that, he missed considerable games during the pandemic seasons due to non-compliance with vaccination requirements. And this season, Irving served an eight-game suspension after sharing a link to an antisemitic film.

Whether it’s injuries or other very avoidable off-court issues, Irving is a good bet to miss considerable time. That’s unlikely to improve as he approaches his mid-30s. That makes locking into a long-term, maximum contract something the Nets were unwilling to do. Will Dallas? That’s a question we’ll answer this summer…maybe.

Because Irving is now highly likely to be an unrestricted free agent this summer, he could just up and leave town. It’s not like Irving hasn’t previously changed his mind after stating how happy he was to be with a team…twice.

The Markieff Morris portion of this trade was likely a throw-in for Brooklyn to save some tax money. The Nets don’t have an open roster spot, so doing a 2-for-1 deal would have meant eating a guaranteed salary. Morris has fallen to the bottom of the Nets rotation, and he’s unlikely to have any real impact in a crowded Mavs frontcourt either.

Dallas took on about $28.7 million in additional taxes and penalties in this deal. If they re-sign Irving to anything approaching a max deal this summer, they’ll likely be a long-term taxpayer.

On last thing to note for the Mavericks side: If Irving were to leave, Dallas could create in the range of $30 million in cap space this summer. If nothing else, they cleared up some multi-year salary obligations in the form of Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith. But we won’t pretend like those were exactly bad contracts worth giving up even a single first-round pick to shed. The Mavs could have worked around them easily enough.

Brooklyn Nets

For the Nets, they are now free of the headache that can come from being Kyrie Irving’s employer. It’s kind of like eating a ton of chicken wings. It’s awesome for part of the time, but then you have saucy and sticky fingers, maybe the dogs try to get into the bones, and you question if the awesome part was even worth it while fighting off some heartburn later.

Brooklyn had precious little leverage here. Irving made it clear on Friday afternoon that he was leaving this summer without an extension. He then made it clear by Sunday morning that he was prepared to never play another game for the Nets. Given his upcoming free agent status, and all the issues we laid out in the Mavericks portion of this analysis, Irving wasn’t exactly a sterling trade commodity.

Yet, the Nets did OK here. Dinwiddie gives them a veteran point guard with whom the organization has a ton of familiarity. Finney-Smith is another big wing defender and a pretty good off-ball shooter and cutter. And he’s on a terrific value contract.

Jacque Vaughn can now deploy defensive lineups that feature four of Finney-Smith, Royce O’Neale, Nic Claxton, Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons, and maybe even all five for stretches of games. Good luck finding much scoring space against those groups.

On the court, Brooklyn should be ok. The ceiling is lower for sure. The Nets probably aren’t title contenders anymore, even if everything goes great. The offensive production just won’t be there against the best teams. But it’s questionable if the floor even dropped an inch, given Irving’s general unreliability.

The big question for the Nets: What does Kevin Durant want to do now? Does he reissue his trade request from the summertime? Is he content to play things out and see what Brooklyn general manager Sean Marks does next? There are already reports that the Phoenix Suns are prepared to make another run at Durant, should become available via trade. And it’s a good bet Phoenix isn’t the only team having the “What’s our best offer for KD?” conversation in NBA front offices today.

Brooklyn saved a considerable chunk of change in this trade. They’ll see their tax-plus-penalties bill drop by about $26.5 million. That’s nothing to sneeze at for a team that has carried a considerable salary and tax outlay the last few seasons.

On top of that, the Nets did really well to get such a late pick from the Mavericks. In 2029, Dallas could be in Year 2 or 3 of a post-Luka Doncic rebuild. Who knows what the Mavs will look like then? And the two seconds are kind of sprinkles on top of a good-but-not-great sundae.

The Rest of the NBA

This trade has a pretty wide fallout radius. The Los Angeles Lakers, LA Clippers and Phoenix Suns were all reportedly interested in trading for Kyrie Irving. The Lakers were even getting some fairly strong public pressure put on them from LeBron James to get a deal done. And reports early on Sunday were that the Clippers had sent the Nets a “strong offer”.

Now, those teams have to pivot. The Lakers need to upgrade their depth and, as they have since the summer, are shopping Russell Westbrook and one or both of their tradable first-round picks. They’ll do something beyond just the Rui Hachimura deal.

The Clippers remain on the hunt for a point guard. Fred VanVleet? Kyle Lowry? Mike Conley? LA seems like a good bet to come away with someone. They just won’t have the star upside of Irving.

The Suns are already known to be ready to talk Kevin Durant trades again. Failing that, they’ll move Jae Crowder and who know what else to retool their roster.

As for the 25 NBA teams we didn’t mention yet, the market is now semi-set. Because the Nets were in a tough spot with Irving, don’t expect the Toronto Raptors to come off the big asking price they’ve set for OG Anunoby, for example. Masai Ujiri will sit back and calmly explain he’s still got the leverage, whereas Sean Marks had little.

But things should start to get moving now. One major domino, if an unexpected one, has fallen. There are some others that are wobbling and ready to start a chain reaction around the league. There’s no overwhelming favorite to win the title. That means Dallas and Brooklyn may have done a deal that kicks off an arms race that won’t culminate until 3:00 PM Eastern on Thursday, February 9 when the NBA trade deadline is in the rearview mirror and rosters are set for the stretch run. Well…until buyout season wraps up a few weeks later!

The NBA announced suspensions for 3 players stemming from the on-court altercations during Friday night’s Magic, Timberwolves game.

Magic Center Mo Bamba will miss the next four games forfeiting $284,138 in 2022-23 salary. The 24-year-old holds a non-guaranteed $10.3M salary through next season, and is a fringe trade candidate this coming week.The 4 game suspension is second only to Kyrie Irving’s 8 games missed due to his promotion of anti semitic ideals.

Timberwolves’ Guard Austin Rivers will miss three games, forfeiting $60,121 in 2022-23 salary. He’s on an expiring contract with Minnesota, set for unrestricted free agency this July.

Magic Guard Jalen Suggs has been suspended one game, forfeiting $47,740 in 2022-23 salary. The 21 year old holds a guaranteed $7.25M salary next season, then a club option for 2024-25.

Additionally, Minnesota’s Jaden McDaniels was tagged with a $20,000 fine for his role.

All combined, the Orlando Magic free up $165,939 of tax this season, while the T-Wolves free up around $30,000.

Track all NBA Fines & Suspension infractions here.

2023 NASCAR CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS

Recent NASCAR Champions, Chase Elliott (+550) and Kyle Larson (+650) lead the pack for the 2023 Championship Odds. Last season’s winner Joey Logano comes in at +1200 to repeat as winner. Denny Hamlin who has yet to win a NASCAR Championship in his future Hall of Fame career is the third highest favorite at +1000. 

My Best Value Pick: While all of those drivers listed above are great picks, my best value pick is Christopher Bell at +1400. Bell won three races in the 2022 Cup season, had twelve Top-5 and twenty Top-10 finishes (all tied for 3rd most). Bell's average finish was 13.8; however, Bell has shown poise in the car and continues to get better and better with each race, and has been able to compete on any track that has been thrown at him. 

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel:

Full list of recent NASCAR Champions and their production on the track.

Full breakdown of each NASCAR team & driver contract statuses.

Rookie of the Year

There are only two Rookie of the Year candidates this season: Ty Gibbs and Noah Gragson.

Ty Gibbs will drive No. 54 for Joe Gibbs Racing. 

Gibbs won seven races, 16 Top-5 finishes and the 2022 Xfinity Championship. He had a good amount of seat time in the Cup series for 23XI Racing when Kurt Busch was sidelined with concussion symptoms. Gibbs raced in 15 Cup series races with an average finish of 22.9 and one Top-10 finish. Gibbs will now be driving for Joe Gibbs Racing and expectations will be high but he’ll get to learn from Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr and Christopher Bell.

Noah Gragson will drive No. 42 for Legacy Motor Club (formerly Petty GMS).

Gragson came up short in the Xfinity Championship race finishing 2nd but he earned eight wins and 21 Top-5 finishes. Similar to Gibbs, Gragson had seat time for half the season competing in 18 races with three different teams throughout the season: Beard Motorsports, Kaulig Racing and Hendrick Motorsports. His average finish was 23.1 and had one Top-5 finish. Gragson is signed for the 2023 season with Legacy Motor Club and why this is significant is that he’ll get to learn from seven-time NASCAR Champion Jimmie Johnson who became co-owner during the fall and he will have Luke Lambert as his crew chief once again.

While no one expects either “rookie” driver to compete for the Championship this year (Gibbs at +6500 and Gragson at +9500) they no doubt will compete in every race they are a part of and it should be fun to watch these two compete against each other this season and for years to come.

My Rookie of the Year pick: Noah Gragson

Dark Horse of the Year

Watch out for AJ Allmendinger this season. While he is +9500 to win the NASCAR Championship, don’t be surprised if you start seeing his name in the Top-10 of many of the races this season.

AJ Allmendinger will drive full-time for Kaulig Racing during the 2023 Cup season. Allmendinger drove part-time Cup for Kaulig the last two seasons and seems to have gained some resurgence.  Allmendinger is a the Dark Horse candidate of the year not only because he is a road course specialist, but he proved towards the end of the season that he can compete on any track right now.

His last 10 Cup races he competed in are as follows: 9, 16, 7, 2, 7, 4, 9, 3, 23, 12. That’s seven Top-10 finishes and he also had two other Top-10 finishes earlier in the season. 

Farewell Kevin Harvick

Kevin Harvick announced that he will be retiring from full-time Cup driving earlier this year. Harvick had a slow start to the 2022 Cup season, but as the season progressed he seemed to be able to figure out the new NextGen car and had back-to-back wins at Michigan and Richmond. He also finished the Top-5 in three of the last five races. Harvick last won a championship with Stewart-Hass Racing in 2014 and is +1600 to win the championship this season. Even though he’s said this is the end of full-time racing, don’t count him out to (A) build off of last season and win some more races this season, and (B) compete for another Championship.

Tyler Reddick vs Kyle Busch

While these two don’t directly have any connection to each other, the comparison of Tyler Reddick and Kyle Busch will be looked at all season. 

An interesting timeline of events:

• Kyle Busch starts the 2022 Cup season enter a contract year with Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR),
• M&Ms announces they will no longer be a sponsor for NASCAR meaning Kyle Busch no longer has his primary sponsor with JGR,
• Tyler Reddick’s 2023 contract option was picked up by Richard Childress Racing (RCR) in July of the 2022 season, 
• Reddick committed/signed with 23XI Racing for the 2024 season, 
• RCR verbally was upset and disappointed in that announcement but committed to Reddick for the 2023 season, 
• RCR signed Kyle Busch for the 2023 (car number unknown at that time) while Reddick was still going to be driving the No. 8 car or some other mysterious car if Kyle went into the 8 car, 
• 23XI worked a buyout of Reddick’s contract and Reddick will be driving for 23XI in the No. 45 car for the 2023 season
• Kyle Busch will be driving the No. 8 car for the 2023 season

Eyes will be on Kyle Busch looking to see if he is able to bring a championship to RCR which would be the first since 1994. There is no doubt the talent and racing experience of Kyle Busch is a major upgrade to RCR. But will this relationship work with a highly contested personality? What happens if or when Kyle starts having poor finishes and his mouth starts to get him into trouble? 

23XI Racing jumped on the opportunity early to sign Reddick ahead of the 2024 season and how the dominoes fell they ended up getting him a year earlier than originally expected. Tyler’s talent and experience alongside Bubba Wallace and Kurt Busch from the sidelines should help boost the 23XI resume.

However, these two drivers will forever be linked and compared because of how everything shook out. And as it just so happens that both driver odds are similar to each other to win the Championship with Busch at +1200 and Reddick at +1400.

Extension Watch

Chase Briscoe recently signed a multi-year extension with Stewart-Haas Racing. Briscoe made the Round of 8 in the Playoffs last season and currently has a +3400 odds to win this year’s championship.

Recent reports have Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain and Denny Hamlin in current contract extension negotiations as the season begins. 

Here is a list of other potential drivers who could receive contract extensions that are free agents in 2024: 2024 NASCAR Cup Free Agents

Other Notable News

The Athletic’s Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi have compiled the 75 Best NASCAR Cup Series Drivers of All-Time. 

NASCAR is on the verge of a new media rights deal. Adam Stern does an excellent job of breaking down the timeline and negotiations that are currently happening between NASCAR officials, drivers and current/potential media partners. Read the full article here. 

NASCAR announces new rules for the 2023 season, including the banning of the ‘Hail Melon’ move from Ross Chastain last season. 

NASCAR will have their very first Street Course race in Chicago on July 2, 2023.

The NBA All-Star rosters have been selected. Four players have received bonuses for their selection to the All-Star team: Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, Julius Randle, and Domantas Sabonis. Player cap and tax salaries will not be altered until the conclusion of the regular season and their subsequent salaries remaining in their current contracts will now be deemed as likely to be earned, increasing those salaries where applicable. 

Jalyen Brown, BOS

Brown will earn $1.55 million for being selected as an All-Star reserve if he ends up playing 65 games this season. This incentive was already deemed likely to be earned for the 2022-23 season and will remain likely to be earned for the 2023-24 season.

Brown currently has played 46 games for Boston with 30 games remaining on the schedule.

Cap/Tax Implications: As of right now no change; cap and tax salaries for the 2022-23 season will remain the same.

Kevin Durant, BKN

Durant has an All-Star incentive in his contract but it is grouped with the Nets making the playoffs, Nets winning at least 43 games and Durant appearing in at least 39 games. If any of these were to be true the incentive is deemed likely to be earned, which it already is.

Cap/Tax Implications: No change; cap and tax salaries for the 2022-23 season will remain the same.

Jrue Holiday, MIL

Holiday earns $324,000 for being selected as an All-Star reserve. This bonus in now deemed likely to be earned for the 2023-24 season. Holiday is under contract through the 2024-25 season, but could be a free agent after the 2023-24 season if he were to decline his $36 million Player Option. 

Cap/Tax Implications: Cap and tax salaries for the 2022-23 season will be updated at the conclusion of the regular season.

Julius Randle, NYK

Randle earns $1,188,000 for being selected as an All-Star reserve. This incentive was already deemed likely to be earned for the 2022-23 season and will remain as likely for the the 2023-24 season. 

Cap/Tax Implications: Cap and tax salaries for the 2022-23 season will be updated at the conclusion of the regular season.

Domantas Sabonis, SAC

Sabonis earns $1.3 million for being selected as an All-Star reserve. He last earned an All-Star spot in 2020-21 season. This is now deemed as likely for the 2023-24 season which will increase his cap hit from $19.4 million to $20.7 million, which will be the last year of his current 4 year $74.9 million contract.

Cap/Tax Implications: Cap and tax salaries for the 2022-23 season will be updated at the conclusion of the regular season.

Now that Tom Brady has officially-officially retired from the NFL, we’ll dive back into a 23 year career that saw 12 contracts, and an all-time tops $333M earned on the field.

We’ll use this space to accomplish two matters at hand. First, a dive into each of the 12 contracts, including notable notes, average salary rankings, his Win-Loss record & any Super Bowl appearances earned while on the deal.

Then, we’ll do some cringy math work to answer the age-old question: Just how much did he leave on the table?

Tom Brady’s Career Contract Analysis

The Rookie Contract

Tom Brady started his illustrious career at the bottom, signing a 3 year, $866,500 rookie contract with the Patriots back in 2000. The deal included a $38,500 signing bonus & minimum salaries of $193,000, $298,000, & $375,000. 

Brady’s AAV: $288,833
‘06 Rookie QB High AAV: $4.6M (Chad Pennington)
Record on Contract: 11-3
Super Bowl Appearances: 1 (1 win)

Brady actually did pretty well with this initial contract. 5 Quarterbacks were selected in the 6th round of the 2000 draft with Brady scoring the 2nd highest value and bonus of the bunch.

• #168 Marc Bulger (2 years, $543,000, $28,000 bonus)
• #183 Spergon Wynn (4 years, $1.291M, $80,000 bonus)
• #199 Tom Brady (3 years, $866,500, $38,500 bonus)
• #202 Todd Husak (2 years, $498,000, $30,000 bonus)
• #205 JaJuan Seider (N/A)

With no rookie wage scale, and no extension rules in place, Brady was able to extend out of his rookie deal after the 2001 season (and his first Super Bowl win).

2002 Extension

The Patriots spent the 2002 offseason financially transferring their power of state from Drew Bledsoe to Tom Brady. Bledsoe had just signed a 10 year, $102.8M extension with New England in March of 2001, paying him $11.4M that season. However with it becoming immediately clear that this was Brady’s team going forward, New England linked up with division rival Buffalo, shipping Bledsoe and his massive contract out for the #14 overall pick in the 2003 draft (the Patriots moved up to #13 and selected Ty Warren with the pick).

New England now had a Super Bowl winning QB set to earn a league minimum $375,000 in an expiring contract for the upcoming season. They fixed that with a 4 year, $29.625M extension for Brady that included a $3.5M signing bonus. Brady spent 3 seasons on this contract, earning $19M for his efforts, before ripping it up and starting fresh (an exercise he’d get comfortable with).

Brady’s AAV: $7.4M (11th)
League-High AAV: $10.3M (Michael Vick)
Record on Contract: 37-11
Super Bowl Appearances: 2 (2 wins)

2005 Extension

Back-to-back Super Bowl wins in 2003 & 2004 forced the Patriots to replace the 2 years, $24M remaining on Brady’s contract with a 4 year, $42.8M extension. The deal included a $14.5M signing bonus, and $26M over the first two seasons (yes, just $2M more than his previous contract contained).

Brady played 5 out of 6 seasons on this contract, by far his longest tenure under one deal, earning $54.5M for his efforts. He won an MVP in 2007 (in an undefeated season), tore his ACL in 2008, & won Comeback Player of the year in 2009. The Patriots went to one Super Bowl during this tenure, losing to the 2007 Giants thanks to a certain helmet catch.

Brady’s AAV: $10.7M (5th)
League-High AAV: $18.7M (Steve McNair)
Record on Contract: 49-16
Super Bowl Appearances: 1

2010 Extension

After proving he was back to full health with a successful 2009 campaign, Brady was awarded a 4 year, $72M extension by the Patriots. The deal would end up being the largest total value contract he would sign in his career (by $22M). Brady turned an initial $6.6M 2010 payout into $16.5M, locking him $48.25M over the first three seasons of his new contract.

The $18M AAV also represents the first time that Tom Brady held the highest average paid NFL player honor, healthily surpassing Eli Manning’s $16.25M figure, who would get better of Brady once again in the 2011 Super Bowl.

Brady’s AAV: $18M (1st)
League-High AAV: $18M (Tom Brady)
Record on Contract: 39-9
Super Bowl Appearances: 1

2013 Extension

Now 2 MVPs & 5 Super Bowl appearances deep, Brady turned the final 2 years, $20M of his previous deal into a 3 year, $41M extension, including $32M over the first two seasons. This would be the start of Brady’s “keep the line moving” approach to his contract approach.

It’s also the obvious start of Brady taking notably less on an average annual basis, dropping his AAV from $18M down to $13.6M here, dropping him down to #18th overall in the league (despite $12M more to be earned across 2013-2014).

The Patriots lost the AFC Championship in 2013, then beat the Seahawks in the 2014 Super Bowl, thanks to Marshawn Lynch being used as a decoy at the goalline.

Brady’s AAV: $13.6M (18th)
League-High AAV: $22M (Aaron Rodgers)
Record on Contract: 24-8
Super Bowl Appearances: 1 (1 win)

2015 Extension

Brady scored a new deal for his age-38 season, dropping his AAV to 10-year-low $9M per year (87tn in the NFL). He’d earn $13M cash for his 1 season on this deal, thanks to $5M of signing bonus payment carrying over from his previous contract.

The Patriots lost the AFC Championship in 2015, and Brady was the MVP runner-up to Cam Newton. So why the need for a new contract after just one season? Ball air.

Brady’s AAV: $9M (86th)
League-High AAV: $22M (Aaron Rodgers)
Record on Contract: 12-4
Super Bowl Appearances: 0

2016 Extension

Embroiled in the “Deflate-Gate” mess, and perhaps adjusting his finances back to reality a bit, Brady and the Patriots agreed to a 2 year, $41M restructured extension. The deal now paid out Brady nearly $30M over two seasons, instead of the $19M he was due on the previous deal. It also (coincidentally) lowered his base salary down to the league minimum, which greatly reduced the amount of money he would eventually forfeit per a 4-game suspension for Deflate-Gate. He’d go 11-1 following his return to the lineup, beating the Falcons in a miraculous comeback for his 5th Super Bowl victory.

2017 was almost as special, as 40 year old Tom Brady led the league in passing yards, won the MVP, but lost to a Nick Foles-led Eagles in the Super Bowl.

Brady’s AAV: $20.5M (12th)
League-High AAV: $24.5M (Andrew Luck)
Record on Contract: 24-4
Super Bowl Appearances: 2 (1 win)

2018 Extension

The AAV & cash flow dropped down to $15M for Brady’s age-41 extension. It was largely expected that he’d tack on a few more million with achievable incentives, but he wound up going 0-5 in that regard for his 1-year run on this deal. Oh and by the way, the Patriots beat the Rams to score Brady his 6th ring.

Brady’s AAV: $15M (47th)
League-High AAV: $33.5M (Aaron Rodgers)
Record on Contract: 11-5
Super Bowl Appearances: 1 (1 win)

2019 Extension

The Patriots extended Brady in 2019 to free up some cap space, and to ramp up for his eventual exit. The $23M earned in 2019 was a career high for Brady - by $4M. Parting gift?

Brady’s AAV: $23M (14th)
League-High AAV: $35M (Russell Wilson)
Record on Contract: 12-4
Super Bowl Appearances: 0

2020 Free Agent Contract

Brady joined the Buccaneers on a 2 year, $50M contract, scoring the 2nd highest total value, and highest average salary contract of his career. The 43 year old posted a 102.2 rating, threw for 40 TDs, and won his 7th (and final) ring.

Brady’s AAV: $25M (17th)
League-High AAV: $45M (Patrick Mahomes)
Record on Contract: 11-5
Super Bowl Appearances: 1 (1 win)

2021 Extension

Brady & the Bucs decided to run-it-back on a restructured extension that dropped his cap figure from $25M down to $10.5M. When factoring in two bonuses, a minimum salary, & $1.8M of earned incentives, Brady took home just under $40M cash for his efforts in 2021 - by FAR his career high.

Brady’s AAV: $25M (18th)
League-High AAV: $45M (Patrick Mahomes)
Record on Contract: 13-4
Super Bowl Appearances: 0

2022 (Un-retirement) Extension

The final contract of Brady’s career was a 1 year, $15M restructure that paid out $30M in total, thanks to $15M of previously earned signing bonus carrying over to the 2022 season. The Bucs utilized void years to spread everything out as much as possible, keeping his cap figure at a modest $11.896M for the 2022 campaign.

Brady’s AAV: $15M (109th)
League-High AAV: $50.2M (Aaron Rodgers)
Record on Contract: 8-9
Super Bowl Appearances: 0

How Much Did Brady Leave On the Table?

So here’s the perfectly improbable but still nerdy and fun exercise. We’re going to take every one of Tom Brady’s contracts and re-evaluate them in two separate ways:

First, we’re going to adjust the AAV of his contract based on the years and dollars he actually played on them (already, we’re completely unrealistic, but let’s forge on).

Then, we’re going to find the difference between each AAV, and the Max AAV in the league the year the contract was signed. So for instance if Brady played 4 seasons making $36M over that span, we’re going to call it a $9M adjusted AAV for 4 years. If the league max was $15M when he signed that deal, we’re going to say the difference was $6M x4 years, or $24M total.

Should I bury the lead to save you from the homework? Using this highly scientific formula, we project that Brady left a maximum of $123,806,034 cash on the table by not demanding a top of the market contract every time he re-negotiated. But who’s counting?

Rookie Contract
Adjusted AAV: $301,830
Possible AAV: $301,830
Difference: $0

2002 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $6,337,560
Max AAV: $10,333,333
Difference: $3,995,773 x3

2005 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $10,903,000
Max AAV: $18,700,000
Difference: $7,797,000 x5

2010 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $16,083,333
Max AAV: $18,000,000
Difference: -$1,916,666

2013 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $16,000,000
Max AAV: $22,000,000
Difference: $6,000,000 x2

2015 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $13M
Max AAV: $22,000,000
Difference: $9,000,000

2016 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $14,887,150
Max AAV: $24,500,000
Difference: -$9,612,849 x2

2018 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $15,000,000
Max AAV: $33,500,000
Difference: $18,500,000

2019 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $23,000,000
Max AAV: $35,000,000
Difference: $12,000,000

2020 Contract
Adjusted AAV: $28,375,000
Max AAV: $45,000,000
Difference: $16,625,000

2021 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $39,420,588
Max AAV: $45,000,000
Difference: $5,579,412

2022 Extension
Adjusted AAV: $30,000,000
Max AAV: $50,271,667
Difference: $20,271,667

The 49ers ran out of magic down the stretch, sending them to an offseason full of indecision (seemingly). There are some easy moves on the list (Nick Bosa’s extension, Fred Warner’s restructure), but the right path forward for players like Arik Armstead & Brandon Aiyuk could shake things up a bit. Oh and by the way, there’s that whole QB1 ordeal.

After factoring in reserve/future contracts, the 49ers currently sit with about $5.3M of Top 51 cap space heading into February. Obviously that means work to be done. We’ll uncover some of that here.

RELATED:
49ers 2023 Salary Cap Table
2023 49ers Free Agents

Notable Team Needs

Based on the positional breakdown below:

• Cornerback & Safety
• Center
• Veteran Quarterback
• Depth Tight Ends
• Kicker
• Long Snapper

Potential Restructure & Roster Bubble Candidates

• WR Brandon Aiyuk (trade)
• RB Christian McCaffrey (restructure)
• CB Charvarius Ward  (restructure)
• LB Fred Warner (restructure)
• DL Arik Armstead (bubble, restructure)

The Quarterback Room

Is currently an in-house Immediate Care.

31-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo continues to rehab his foot injury as he nears the open market. It seems a lock that he won’t be back in San Francisco next season. Best story of the season Brock Purdy now begins his work to fix and recover from a full UCL tear this past weekend. None of the $2.95M owed to him over the next 3 seasons is guaranteed. And 2021 1st rounder Trey Lance continues to recover from a serious ankle injury, with his timeline to return still a bit up in the air. Lance holds a fully guaranteed $9M over the next two seasons, plus a 5th-year option in 2025.

There’s an add to be made here this offseason. Will it be a smaller addition to tack on needed depth based on the injury issues, or will this be a spot for a 1-year, start immediately veteran to take the reins for 2023?.

The Running Back Room

Christian McCaffrey holds a non-guaranteed $36.2M over the next 3 seasons, set to earn $12M on a $12M cap hit next year. A full base salary conversation + 2 void years can open up $8.5M of space for the Niners this March.

24-year-old Elijah Mitchell enters Year 3 of his rookie deal, set to earn a non-guaranteed $940k in 2023. He averaged 6.2 yards per carry in 5 games last season. Youngsters ??Jordan Mason & Ty Davis-Price should remain in the fold as capable depth.

Fullback Kyle Juszczyk has $1.25M of his 2023 salary fully guaranteed right now. He’s set to earn $5.25M against a $6.5M cap hit next year, with 2 years, $12.5M non-guaranteed to follow.

The Wide Receiver Room

Deebo Samuel enters Year 2 of a 4 year, $76M deal, set to earn $11.3M against a team-friendly $8.6M cap hit. He’ll be fully guaranteed through 2024 by April 1st, 2023.

2020 1st rounder Brandon Aiyuk is now extension-eligible for the first time, set to earn a fully guaranteed $2.3M in 2023. The Niners will have to decide on his 5th year option for 2024 by May 2nd. Aiyuk just finished his best season by a longshot, snagging 78 catches for 1,015 yards and 8 scores, and currently projects to a 4 year, $72M contract in our system. The future of Aiyuk could be an interesting talking point for San Francisco this offseason.

Ray-Ray McCloud enters a contract year on a non-guaranteed $1.2M salary, 2022 3rd rounder Danny Gray enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, & Jauan Jennings should be back on a minimum next season.

The Tight End Room

George Kittle enters Year 4 of a 6 year, $75.5M contract, set to earn $12.25M against an $18M cap number (#1 among 2023 Tight Ends). $4.5M of his 2023 compensation is already fully guaranteed, locking the 30-year-old in for the upcoming season. He caught a career-high 11 TD passes in 2022.

2020 6th rounder Charlie Woerner enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M. He’ll hit the offseason as a roster bubble candidate, while Tyler Kroft & Ross Dwelley are slated for unrestricted free agency.

The Offensive Line

Left Tackle Trent Williams enters Year 3 of a 6 year, $137M contract, set to earn $20.25M against a $27.1M cap hit (4th most among 2023 OLs). $6.2M of his 2023 compensation is already fully guaranteed, with another $10M set to lock on April 1st. The remaining 3 years, $77.3M on this contract are non-guaranteed.

2021 2nd rounder Aaron Banks will be back at Left Guard, holding a non-guaranteed $3M over the final two seasons of his rookie deal.

Centers Jake Brendel & Daniel Brunskill are both slated for free agency, making this a priority need for the Niners this offseason.

2022 4th rounder Spencer Burford had an inconsistent first campaign (as to be expected), but he settled into his Right Guard role down the stretch, and holds a non-guaranteed $2.9M through 2025.

Right Tackle Mike McGlinchey is slated for unrestricted free agency, while his apparent replacement Colton McKivitz, should garner a $2.7M tender in restricted free agency.

The Defensive Line

Javon Kinlaw enters Year 4 of his rookie contract, and is now extension-eligible for the first time, but with just 10 games played over the past two seasons, that seems unlikely right now. The Niners will need to decide on his 5th-year option by May 2nd.

After an outstanding 2021, Arik Armstead missed half of 2022 and is set to earn $16.74M against a $23.9M cap figure. While Armstead’s compensation is non-guaranteed, he holds $21.9M of dead cap this offseason, putting the Niners in a tough spot. San Francisco might opt for a smaller restructure here to lower the $23M figure without adding too much to the $14.3M of dead cap for 2024.

Samson Ebukam posted a career high 5 sacks this season, but is slated for free agency this coming March. 2022 2nd rounder ??Drake Jackson is likely asked to step into this role going forward.

The big headline here though is attached to DE Nick Bosa, who enters his 5th-year option salary season, set to earn a fully guaranteed $17.8M next season. Bosa carries a $28.6M valuation in our system, with his brother’s $102M guaranteed in clear view. 5 years, $130M, $105M guaranteed should be where things are headed here.

The Linebackers

Dre Greenlaw filled up the stat sheet in 2022, posting 127 tackles, 2 forced fumbles & a pick for his efforts. He’s set to earn $4.775M in 2023 against a very friendly $5.5M cap hit.

Fred Warner enters Year 3 of a 6 year $98M contract, set to earn $13.5M against an $18.5M cap hit for 2023. The 26-year-old was invaluable once again this past season, and the Niners can free up $9.4M of space by converting his base salary into signing bonus this offseason.

Azeez Al-Shaair started 7 games this year and is scheduled for unrestricted free agency this offseason. While RFA Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles should garner the $2.6M first right of refusal tender this March.

The Secondary

Charvarius Ward enters Year 2 of his $40.5M deal set to earn $14M against a $16.4M cap hit. $5M of it is already guaranteed, and another $8.5M locks in this April 1st. A full base salary conversion can open up $9.9M of cap space for the Niners.

Rookie deal cornerbacks Deommodore Lenoir, Samuel Womack, & Ambry Thomas all should factor in this offseason, while vets Jason Verrett & Emmanuel Moseley are slated for free agency.

Veteran safeties Tashaun Gipson & Jimmie Ward are set to hit the open market, while 2021 5th rounder Talanoa Hufanga remains a candidate to start next season. Safety is a big position of need for the Niners this March.

The Special Teamers

40-year-old Robbie Gould is headed back to free agency, but he performed well enough to warrant another deal in San Francisco if he’s so inclined.

P Mitch Wishnowsky enters Year 2 of a 5 year contract, carrying a cost-effective $1.8M cap figure for 2023, while LS Taybor Pepper is headed for free agency.