After narrowly missing the playoffs, the Packers hit the offseason with plenty of question marks, an overage of salary cap (-$17M at the time of this piece), & a decision to be made at both QB1 & QB2 in the coming months.

Notable Team Needs

Based on the positional breakdown below, the 2023 Packers appear to be thinnest at:

• Quarterback (potentially)
• Wide Receiver (behind the youth)
• Tight End
• Offensive Tackle (potentially both)
• Safety
• Kicker

Potential Roster Bubbles or Restructures

• QB Aaron Rodgers (trade/retirement)
• RB Aaron Jones (restructure)
• LT David Bakhtiari (release, restructure)
• DT Kenny Clark (extension)
• CB Jaire Alexander (restructure)
• P Pat O'Donnell (bubble)

The Quarterback Room

Another will he won’t he offseason for Aaron Rodgers drives the Packers’ decision making process. There’s a $58.3M option bonus attached to his 2023 compensation ($59.515M total) which will need to be delayed until Green Bay understands how things will move forward.

Assuming Rodgers decides to return for a 19th season with the Packers, Green Bay will exercise that option, keeping his 2023 cap figure at $31.6M (with no additional restructuring available).

If Rodgers requests a trade, there are two options: Before June 1st, and after. The former has more cap pain, but the latter means no 2023 draft picks can be acquired. Assuming Rodgers is moved early in the offseason, the Packers will take on a dead cap hit of $40,313,568, all in 2023, losing $8.69M of cap space this year. If the deal is struck after 6/1, (and assuming the option bonus hasn’t been exercised yet), Green Bay will take on a $15,833,568 dead cap hit in 2023, with another $24,480,000 slated for 2024. The Packers would save $15.79M in 2023 with this move, but not until June 2nd. All of these numbers also apply should Aaron Rodgers retire this offseason.

For those wondering, Rodgers would bring a $15.79M cap figure with him to a new team in 2023, then $32.5M, $51.1M, & $45.2M through 2026. If he were to retire after 2023, he’d leave behind a $43.725M dead cap hit in 2024.

Green Bay also enters a decision year for Jordan Love, who enters Year 4 of his rookie contract, set to earn a fully guaranteed $2.2M. The Packers will need to decide on Love’s 2024 5th-year option, projected to cost around $22M, by May 2nd. If they exercise it, the entire salary becomes fully guaranteed immediately. If they decline it, Love will be eligible for unrestricted free agency next March.

The Running Back Room

28-year-old Aaron Jones enters Year 3 of his 4 year, $48M contract, set to earn $16M on a $20.02M cap hit next season. There’s a $7M roster bonus due March 17th that puts some pressure on Green Bay to decide on his immediate future, as a trade or outright release here can free up $10.4M of space. Jones compiled 1,500+ yards from scrimmage in 2022, but his total TDs (7) were down, & his fumbles (5) were a career high. If the plan is to keep him, a full salary conversion + 1 new void year can open up $11.2M of space.

A.J. Dillon enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.3M on a $1.6M cap hit. While his overall numbers were a bit down in 2022, he found the end zone a career high 7 times. If Green Bay moves on from Jones and gives Dillon the keys this season, it’s likely his contractual floor starts at James Conner’s $7M mark.

The Wide Receiver Room

2022 2nd rounder Christian Watson enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, set to earn a fully guaranteed $1.1M on a $2.1M cap hit. His emergence to finish off 2022 signals a chance for huge value out of this contract over the next few seasons.

2022 4th rounder Romeo Doubs also looked the part, and his non-guaranteed 3 years, $2.9M could give Green Bay a cheap, talented 1-2 punch in the passing game through 2025.

Vets Randall Cobb & Allen Lazard are both slated for free agency this offseason, with the latter carrying a $12.5M valuation into the offseason.

The Tight End Room

The Packers are thin here, as both Robert Tonyan Jr. & Marcedes Lewis are headed back to the open market (leaving behind a combined $1.55M of dead cap). 2020 3rd rounder Josiah Deguara enters a contract year (non-guaranteed $1.1M), while UDFAs Nick Guggemos & Austin Allen were signed to reserve deals this winter.

Tonyan carries a $5M valuation in our system, and seems the most likely option to be brought back and take over the reins again, though this is certainly a team keeping an eye on the likes of Mike Gesicki, Dalton Schultz, Evan Engram, & Hayden Hurst on the open market this March.

The Offensive Line

Left Tackle David Bakhtiari’s inability to stay on the field at least puts his contract in question this March, though early reports seem to favor him sticking around for one more season. Moving on this March leaves behind $23.1M of dead cap to 2023, freeing up $5.65M. He’s set to account for $28.7M on the Packers’ cap right now, so keeping him around will likely require a 3rd straight restructure. Converting his $9.5M March roster bonus (+ 3 void years) into signing bonus can open up $7.6M of space.

Left Guard Elgton Jenkins locked in a 4 year, $68M extension this past Christmas, though his $24M signing bonus is the only full guarantee at signing (a Packers’ standard). The new deal brings a team-friendly $6.9M cap hit for 2023.

2021 2nd rounder Josh Myers ranked 27th among centers according to PFF, bringing a non-guaranteed 2 year, $2.5M deal to the table through 2024. There’s a world where a veteran upgrade is brought in here this March.

Right Guard Jon Runyan enters a contract year in 2023, with an estimated $2.745M salary, thanks to a proven performance escalator. At this point however, it seems unlikely that an early extension will come this season.

Green Bay is likely in the market for a Right Tackle this offseason, as Yosh Nijman is slated for free agency, & Royce Newman & Zach Tom are both placeholders until proven otherwise.

The Defensive Line

Kenny Clark enters Year 4 of a 5 year, $78M contract, set to earn $16.25M on a $23.9M cap figure and will be the first to admit it was an inconsistent 2022. There’s $14.5M of compensation available to be restructured this season, which could come via another salary conversion - or a full boat new contract extension.

2022 1st rounder Devonte Wyatt enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, set to earn a fully guaranteed $1.2M ($2.9M cap hit).

Jarran Reed & Dean Lowry are slated for free agency, leaving behind a combined $4.49M of voided dead cap on their way out.

The Linebackers

30-year-old Preston Smith enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $64.5M contract, set to earn $10.6M on a $13M cap hit, all but securing his spot for 2023. Converting his $7.5M roster bonus into signing bonus can open up $6M of space as needed.

Rashan Gary was having a year (6 sacks, 32 tackles, 1 forced fumble in 9 games) before tearing his ACL. Now his 2023 season is in jeopardy as well, likely removing the chance he’ll bag an extension before his rookie deal expires. He’s slated to play out a fully guaranteed $10.8M option salary in 2023. From a valuation standpoint, he’s squarely in the conversation to find himself at the top of the mountain at some point, currently holding a $26M figure in our system. If the Packers trust he’ll be the same player post-recovery, locking him into this deal now can lower his 2023 cap hit, and keep him in the mix for 2024 and beyond.

2022 5th rounder Kingsley Enagbare looks like he might continue to be a factor, and his non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M certainly fits the bill.

De'Vondre Campbell enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $50M contract, set to earn $5.25M on an $8.15M cap hit which shouldn’t need to be touched. His counterpart Quay Walker enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, and is fully guaranteed through 2025, plus a 2026 option.

The Secondary

Jaire Alexander enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $98M contract, set to earn $14M on a $20M cap hit, the 4th highest such figure among 2023 cornerbacks. There’s a massive $11.45M roster bonus due March 19th that will almost certainly be converted to a signing bonus (+1 void year), clearing $9.16M of cap.

Behind him, Rasul Douglas enters Year 2 of a 3 year, $21M deal, set to earn $6M on a $7.7M cap hit. He had a strong 2022 and should hold good value again next season. 2021 1st-rounder Eric Stokes missed half the year with ankle/knee injuries, but is fully guaranteed through 2023.

29-year-old safety Adrian Amos is headed for free agency, while 2019 1st rounder Darnell Savage is entering his 5th year option season, carrying a fully guaranteed $7.9M salary for 2023. Safety is a position of need for the Packers this offseason.

The Special Teamers

K Mason Crosby is a pending free agent, coming off of a season where he made 86% of his field goals, 95% of his PATs. If he’s asked back for a 17th season, it’ll likely be done at or around the minimum salary.

P Pat O'Donnell holds a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1.9M contract, set to account for $2.375M against the cap in 2023. The 32 year old is solid, but with $1.9M to be saved, it’s possible the Packers look to save a buck and go younger here.

LS Jack Coco remains a minimum salary option through 2023.

The 2023 NBA trade deadline is about two weeks away.  So far, we’ve seen two in-season trades. The Boston Celtics salary-dumped Noah Vonleh on the San Antonio Spurs. And, in a more meaningful move, the Los Angeles Lakers acquired Rui Hachimura from the Washington Wizards for Kendrick Nunn and three second-round picks.

Two weeks or so out from deadline day is when things usually start to pick up. Teams that insisted on multiple first-round picks for their players come down to a single first-round pick, while their partners in trades come up from offering a couple of second-rounders to offering that single first-rounder. As desperation increases, so does reasonability in trade talks.

Here’s what each of the 30 NBA teams are working with to trade as we sit two weeks from the deadline.

Atlanta Hawks

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4.6 million (Maurice Harkless), $3.6 million (Kevin Huerter)

Draft Pick Situation: Hawks owe two future firsts (2025 and 2027) to the Spurs, as well as a swap in 2026. Atlanta is owed extra first-round pick from Sacramento. Hawks have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: John Collins. He’s been in rumors forever. Feels like something might actually got done this time.

Boston Celtics

Cap/Tax Picture: $23.7 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $5.9 million (Dennis Schroder), $3.2 million (Danilo Gallinari Disabled Player Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: Celtics owe this year’s first-rounder to the Pacers. They also have a top-1 protected swap with the Spurs in 2028. Boston has at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Justin Jackson. Nothing exciting here beyond a tax-savings move. It’s far more likely Boston is active on the buyout marker than the trade market.

Brooklyn Nets

Cap/Tax Picture: $34.8 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $2.5 million (James Harden)

Draft Pick Situation: Brooklyn is about neutral in first-round picks. They owe a couple of their own to Houston, but they have a couple coming from Philadelphia. The Nets have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Patty Mills. He’s no longer in the Nets rotation and his $6.5 million for this year is a nice piece of salary-matching in a trade.

Charlotte Hornets

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.6 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Hornets owe a protected first-rounder to the Spurs, but have a protected first-rounder coming from Denver. Charlotte has at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Mason Plumlee. This would have been Kelly Oubre Jr., but his recent hand surgery has him in a bit of flux. If Charlotte pivots towards development, and they should, Mark Williams will get the bulk of the center minutes. That makes Plumlee very available.

Chicago Bulls

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Bulls owe protected first-round picks to Orlando and San Antonio in coming years. Chicago doesn’t have a fully clear first-rounder until 2029. The Bulls also have one truly tradable second-round pick, as others all have conditions attached, including a pending forfeit from tampering.

Most Likely to be Traded: Coby White. If Chicago makes any sort of upgrade to their rotation, it’s likely White will be traded. He’s a pending restricted free agent and the Bulls have a bunch of other guards.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cap/Tax Picture: $2.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.9 million (Ochai Agbaji)

Draft Pick Situation: Cleveland owes four future first-round picks to the Pacers (one) and Jazz (three), as well as two years of swap rights to Utah. The Cavs have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Caris LeVert. It’s unlikely Cleveland does any major moves at the deadline, but if they do, LeVert has to be involved. The Cavs have guys on the roster who can fill what he does and his $18.8 million expiring contract is a very nice piece of salary-matching in a trade.

Dallas Mavericks

Cap/Tax Picture: $15.8 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Dallas owes a first to New York that should convey this season. They are free to trade all of their other first-rounders. The Mavs have at least three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dwight Powell. There isn’t a great candidate for Dallas. But Powell would likely be the one to move if the Mavericks made a big move.

Denver Nuggets

Cap/Tax Picture: $10.5 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.1 million (Monte Morris), $3.5 million (JaMychal Green)

Draft Pick Situation: Denver owes future first-round picks to Charlotte, Orlando and Oklahoma City. They won’t be able to trade a first-round pick at this deadline. The Nuggets have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Ish Smith. This would be a move simply to lessen the Nuggets tax bill, or Smith could go to yet another team in a swap of similar salaries.

Detroit Pistons

Cap/Tax Picture: $627 thousand under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Detroit owes a heavily protected first to New York that may not convey for at least a couple of seasons. The Pistons have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Alec Burks. The Pistons have set a high price for Bojan Bogdanovic. Teams will probably just wait and see if Nerlens Noel is bought out. That leaves Burks as an attainable mid-range players for other teams.

Golden State Warriors

Cap/Tax Picture: $40.2 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Warriors owe one protected first-round pick to the Grizzlies. Golden State has at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: James Wiseman. This is strictly a hunch. If the Warriors are going to bolster their bench in any kind of meaningful way, Wiseman would be the guy to go the other way in a trade.

Houston Rockets

Cap/Tax Picture: $14.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.9 million (Christian Wood)

Draft Pick Situation: Houston has a couple of extra first-rounders coming from Brooklyn and Miami. They also owe two protected picks to Oklahoma City, and there are swap rights in the mix too. The Rockets should have at least at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Eric Gordon. Gordon is the only veteran of note on the Rockets roster. Most of the other players are on rookie scale contracts and not going anywhere.

Indiana Pacers

Cap/Tax Picture: $27.8 million under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Indiana will get additional 2023 first-round picks from Boston and Cleveland. The Pacers also have all of their own first-round picks. The Pacers have at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Daniel Theis. It doesn’t seem very likely that Indiana is trading Myles Turner or Buddy Hield, despite years and months of rumors respectively. Theis seems to get moved during every trade window lately. If the Pacers are sending anyone out, it’ll probably be him.

LA Clippers

Cap/Tax Picture: $41.7 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.7 million (Serge Ibaka)

Draft Pick Situation: The Clippers owe two more first-round picks to the Thunder, plus two years of swap rights. LA has six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Robert Covington. Adding salary is no obstacle for the Clippers. They’ve got the greenlight to keep adding to an already giant tax bill. Covington is only a sometimes rotation player. If his $12.3 million salary can get LA an upgrade, they’ll do it.

Los Angeles Lakers

Cap/Tax Picture: $20.3 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Pelicans can swap for the Lakers pick this year. And Los Angeles owes New Orleans first in either 2024 or 2025, pending a Pelicans potential deferment. That leaves the Lakers with their 2027 and 2029 firsts as tradable. Los Angeles has four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Damian Jones. This isn’t as exciting or as fun as a huge Russell Westbrook trade, but that seems unlike. Instead, Jones could be moved in a salary-dump which would save some on the tax bill and also eliminate his player option for next season as a potential issue for the Lakers.

Memphis Grizzlies

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Grizzlies have all of their own first-round picks and one extra pick coming from the Warriors. Memphis has nine tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Danny Green. It’s unlikely the Grizzlies will do much at the deadline, even if they should. They’re really close to being the best team in the West and one more player could push them over. But Memphis likes to keep their own guys. If they do make a move, it’ll probably involve Green.

Miami Heat

Cap/Tax Picture: $163 thousand under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Heat owe one first to the Thunder, but own all of their other first-round picks. The Heat have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dewayne Dedmon. Dedmon has been replaced by Orlando Robinson in the rotation. Omer Yurtseven could return and bump Dedmon to fourth on the center depth chart. His $4.7 million could get moved to bring in help, or to clear some needed breathing room under the tax line.

Milwaukee Bucks

Cap/Tax Picture: $26.4 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Bucks only own two of their own future first-round picks. The others are owed to some combination of the Rockets, Pelicans and Knicks, plus the Pels own swap rights on two other years too. Milwaukee has eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Serge Ibaka. This one is cheating a bit, as the Bucks and Ibaka already agreed to find him a new home. If not Ibaka, keep an eye on Jordan Nwora or George Hill. They could both be nice pieces of salary-matching in a deal.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.1 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4.4 million (Jarred Vanderbilt)

Draft Pick Situation: Minnesota owes Utah four future first-round picks, only one of which is protected. Because of the Stepien Rule, the Wolves can’t deal another first. The Timberwolves have three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Bryn Forbes. Super boring, but the Wolves don’t project to do anything big at the deadline. All of their meaningful salaries belong to rotation players. Minnesota is likely to focus on getting healthy and treating that as their “acquisitions”.

New Orleans Pelicans

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.6 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Pelicans own three extra first-rounders courtesy of the Lakers and Bucks. They also have swap rights on three years with those two teams too. New Orleans has at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Willy Hernangomez. When the Pelicans are healthy (or assuming they ever are), Hernangomez is the fifth big in their rotation. New Orleans should be able to pick up another second-rounder if they deal Hernangomez to a big-needy team.

New York Knicks

Cap/Tax Picture: $7.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Knicks first-round pick situation is complicated. They have all of their first-rounders moving forward. They have additional picks coming from Dallas, Detroit, Washington, and potentially Milwaukee, moving forward. Those picks all have various protections attached, but all should eventually convey to New York. The Knicks have eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Cam Reddish. The contract is small enough to moved easily. New York is apparently asking only for a second-rounder or two in the deal. Reddish will likely get moved before the deadline.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Cap/Tax Picture: $7.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $10.2 million (Derrick Favors), $4.2 million (Ty Jerome)

Draft Pick Situation: Oklahoma City has at least eight extra first-round picks headed their way from a combination of the Rockets, Clippers, Jazz, Heat, 76ers and Nuggets. In addition, the Thunder have at least 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Darius Bazley. It’s unlikely the Thunder will do much at the deadline. They aren’t sitting on cap space anymore. And OKC can’t realistically add any more draft picks. If they want to avoid any messiness with Bazley in restricted free agency, the Thunder might move him along to another team.

Orlando Magic

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.6 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Magic have extra firsts coming from the Bulls and the Nuggets, in addition to all of their own first-round picks. Orlando has at least 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Mo Bamba or Terrence Ross. Is this finally the year Ross gets traded? What about Bamba who has lost all of his minutes in a healthy, and crowded, frontcourt? Don’t be surprised if both are moved by the deadline, as Orlando consolidates things a bit on their roster.

Philadelphia 76ers

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.2 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Sixers have four of their own first-round picks over the next seven years, with three picks owed to a combination of the Nets, Thunder and possibly Jazz or Rockets. In the second round, Philadelphia owns only two picks that they will definitely get. This partially from forfeiting second-round picks in 2023 and 2024 due to tampering.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jaden Springer. If the 76ers can move Springer and take no salary back, they’ll get themselves clear of the tax. That’s likely to be a goal heading into the trade deadline.

Phoenix Suns

Cap/Tax Picture: $16.3 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Phoenix is the only team in the NBA that owns all of their own first and second round picks, and doesn’t have any extra picks in either round.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jae Crowder. Even if it’s for a very minor return, Phoenix has to move on from Crowder. They’ll likely get something of value, as he can help several contenders, but it’s a surety that Crowder will be moved before the deadline. Keep an eye on Dario Saric here too.

Portland Trail Blazers

Cap/Tax Picture: $67 thousand under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.5 million (Robert Covington), $3.3 million (Nickeil Alexander-Walker)

Draft Pick Situation: Portland owes a lottery protected pick to Chicago. Those protections carry out through 2028, but the pick should convey before then. The Blazers have four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Josh Hart. It’s probably more likely Portland stands pat, but Hart could be part of a deal to bring a bit more size to the roster. He’s also on a very tradable contract.

Sacramento Kings

Cap/Tax Picture: $17.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $4 million (Tyrese Haliburton)

Draft Pick Situation: The Kings owe a protected first-round pick to the Hawks, but own the remainder of their own first-rounders. Sacramento has between nine and 11 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Alex Len. Sacramento has a lot of potentials for this spot. The Kings should be looking to aggregate together a bunch of salaries of non-rotation players. That could deliver a rotation player who makes upwards of $20 million this season. That’s the way to go all-in on a playoff push.

San Antonio Spurs

Cap/Tax Picture: $26.9 million under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Spurs have five extra picks coming their way from the Hawks, Hornets and Bulls. They also own all of their own first-rounders moving forward. San Antonio has 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Josh Richardson. Nope, not Jakob Poeltl. There seems to be real interest in re-signing the big man, so that leaves the veteran guard on the block. Richardson could help a lot of contenders and it would free up some minutes in a semi-crowded Spurs backcourt.

Toronto Raptors

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $5.3 million (Goran Dragic)

Draft Pick Situation: Toronto owns all of their own first-round picks with no extras coming in. The Raptors own all of their own second-rounders, minus a 2024 second-round pick they owe to Memphis.

Most Likely to be Traded: Gary Trent Jr. Maybe Toronto starts a major remodeling of their roster, but that seems more like a summer project. If they wait, and Trent isn’t a part of the future plans, expect the Raptors to get something of value before losing Trent for nothing this summer.

Utah Jazz

Cap/Tax Picture: $6.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.8 million (Joe Ingles), $9.6 million (Rudy Gobert), $4.9 million (Bojan Bogdanovic)

Draft Pick Situation: Utah owes one protected pick to Oklahoma City. Beyond that, the Jazz have eight additional first-rounders coming their way, mostly from the Cavaliers and Timberwolves. Utah has three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Malik Beasley. This is really a take-your-pick of any number of veterans on the Jazz roster. Beasley seems likely to fetch a solid enough return, while having a somewhat shaky spot moving forward that Utah could move on from him.

Washington Wizards

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.4 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.3 million (Rui Hachimura), $3.9 million (Aaron Holiday)

Draft Pick Situation: The Wizards owe a protected first-round pick to the Knicks, but own all of their other first-rounders. Washington has at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Will Barton. The veteran wing has fallen out of the Wizards rotation. He could still help a number of contenders who need a bench scorer. If he’s not traded, Barton could also work a buyout. Keep an eye on Kendrick Nunn as a guy who might get re-flipped after arriving in the Rui Hachimura trade.

The Buccaneers head into a tumultuous offseason, current estimated to hold the worst cap situation (-$55M) in all of football, due in large part to the voiding contract and uncertainty of QB Tom Brady. We’ll dive into each position group, breaking down contract statuses, potential restructures, extensions, cuts, & more.

RELATED

• 2023 Buccaneers Salary Cap Table
• 2023 Buccaneers Free Agents

The Quarterback Room

It’s Complicated

Instead of predicting what might happen with Tom Brady, we’ll just quickly lay out a few possibilities - because they offer varying results for Tampa Bay financially speaking.

Worst Case Scenario: Brady signs with a new team this March. Not only does this leave the Bucs without a viable QB1 (barring a Carr trade), but it also means his previous contract has officially voided, leaving the full $35.1M of dead cap on their 2023 books. For now, this feels like the most likely scenario.

Best Case Scenario: Brady agrees to a 1 year, $1.165M extension that stops his current contract from automatically voiding. The two sides agree to keep his $11.9M cap hit on the books through June 1st, after which he can officially process his retirement. The move splits his dead cap up into $10.776M for 2023, $24.3M for 2024. 

Potentially Bester Case Scenario: Brady re-signs with the Bucs, assumedly to another 1 year $30M contract, that also includes a $30M “option” for 2024. It’s a minimum base salary with an offsetting roster bonus (treated as a signing bonus, but protects Brady from having to pay it back in any instance). This drops his 2023 cap hit from $35.1M to $17.7M.


After 2023, the Bucs can go a number of ways with the contract, but assuming he retires, they can drop the $30M salary down to a minimum $1.21M, carry his $17.7M cap hit through June 1st, then process his retirement as a Post 6/1 move. This splits up his dead cap into $16.5M for 2024, $30.8M for 2025.


Elsewhere, backup QB Blaine Gabbert is also a pending free agent, while 2021 2nd rounder Kyle Trask enters Year 3 of his rookie contract.

The Running Back Room

Another White/Fournette Split Season

$2M of Leonard Fournette’s 2023 salary is already fully guaranteed. Another $2M locks in March 19th, which should mean his roster spot is secured. A full base salary conversion + void years can free up $4.3M of space for the Bucs. If the Bucs can find a buyer on an essential 1 year, $7M deal for Fournette, they can open up $5.4M of space by trading him, but that seems unlikely.

2022 3rd rounder Rachaad White enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, set to earn a non-guaranteed $938k next season. He caught 50 passes in 2022 and is a fringe breakout candidate heading into the offseason (especially if Fournette is moved). 2020 3rd rounder Ke'Shawn Vaughn enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.2M. He saw 21 snaps last season and should be considered a cut candidate for now ($1.2M to be saved).

The Wide Receiver Room

Extending or Ending the Evans Tenure

29-year-old Mike Evans enters a contract year in Tampa, set to earn $14.5M on a $23.6M cap hit. He posted another strong campaign in 2022 but reeled in only 6 TDs, a 6 year low. There’s a world where the Bucs field trade calls for their long-time WR1, though doing so early in the offseason would only free up $2.3M of cap space. A strong haul of draft picks still might make it worth their time. Contractually, Evans projects to a 4 year, $92M extension in our system.

Chris Godwin enters Year 2 of his 3 year, $60M deal, set to earn $20M on a $23.75M cap hit next season. Tampa can free up $15.1M of space with a base salary conversion + void years.

$5M of Russell Gage’s $10M salary for 2023 is already fully guaranteed. The 27 year old continues to recover from a scary neck/head injury in the Wild Card round game against Dallas, but should be back in the fold this offseason. Tampa can free up $7.1M of cap with a base salary conversion + void years.

Julio Jones, Breshad Perriman, & Scotty Miller are all slated for unrestricted free agency this March, with the former leaving behind a $3.4M dead cap hit per voidable years.

The Tight End Room

Young & Cheap

2022 4th rounder Cade Otton jumped to the top of the depth chart in his inaugural campaign, finishing 2022 with 42 catches, 2 of them scores. With 3 years, $2.95M non-guaranteed left on his rookie deal, the Bucs are hoping for strong value out of this relationship for a few more seasons.

Cameron Brate has been a bubble player each of the past 3 offseasons, opting to restructure or take a pay cut in order to remain in the fold. Moving on from him this March only frees up $2M of space, but the Bucs need every dollar they can ascertain right now.

2022 6th rounder Ko Kieft will compete for the TE2 spot, while vet Kyle Rudolph is off to free agency again.

The Offensive Line

Get Healthy Get Right

Left Tackle Donovan Smith missed 4 games in 2022 - an unfortunate theme for the Bucs last season. He enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn $15.25M on a $17.9M cap hit. If Tampa trusts him to settle back into 2021 form, a restructured contract extension makes sense for both sides. The 29 year old carries a $19.5M valuation in our system.

Left Guard remains a bit of a mystery for the Bucs, as 2022 2nd rounder Luke Goedeke was drafted to slot immediately into the role, but failed to maintain it. UDFA Nick Leverett took the reins and held the spot until the injury bug hit him too. It’s a major area of need going forward.

Ryan Jensen missed the entire regular season with a nasty knee injury, starting the domino effect of Bucs’ injury woes. $9M of his 2023 compensation is already fully guaranteed, and another $3.5M locks in March 19th.

Right Guard Shaq Mason enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn $8.5M on a $9.5M cap hit. Mason struggled to help the run game last season, but held his own as a pass blocker. There’s $5.2M of cap to be freed up by moving on, but the Bucs may opt to restructure and keep him in the mix through 2023.

Right Tackle Tristan Wirfs is the obvious bright star of this group, posting outstanding numbers across the board as he becomes extension eligible for the first time. The 24-year-old projects to a 5 year, $116M deal in our system, but may have to wait a year for his payday. 

The Defensive Line

Vita & Crickets

In Vita Vea enters Year 3 of a 6 year $81M deal, set to earn $13M on a $15.6M cap hit in 2023. His $12.5M salary is already fully guaranteed for the upcoming season, and $9.1M of his cap hit can be freed up with a salary conversion.

On the outside, 2022 2nd rounder Logan Hall enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, while Akiem Hicks, William Gholston, Pat O'Connor, & Rakeem Nunez-Roches are all pending free agents.

The Linebackers

The Future of Devin White

30-year-old Shaquil Barrett enters Year 3 of a 4 year, $68M deal, and while none of his $15M to be earned is guaranteed, $23.1M of dead cap set against it likely keeps him in the fold. He’s recovering from a torn achilles and should be a full go come the 2023 season.

2021 1st rounder Joe Tryon enters Year 3 of his rookie deal, coming off of another 4 sack season for the Bucs. He’s under contract through 2025 including his 5th year option.

On the inside, Devin White enters his fully guaranteed 5th year option season, set to earn $11.7M in 2023. He remained productive in 2022, posting 5.5 sacks, 124 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, but his coverage numbers and side to side analytics continue to grade out poorly. There may be a team that views White as a near top of the market $17M+ player, but I’m not sure the Bucs are that team. With that said, Tampa Bay can restructure his $11.7M salary with 4 void years, freeing up $9.3M this season. Vet Lavonte David is slated for free agency this March.

The Secondary

Priority

LCB Jamel Dean is slated for free agency, valuing toward a 3 year, $350M contract in our system, while his counterpart Carlton Davis enters Year 2 of his 3 year, $44.5M deal, set to earn $15M for the upcoming season, $14.5M of which will be fully guaranteed by March 19th. $10.7M of cap space can be opened up by converting that $14.5M into bonus.

2022 5th rounder Zyon McCollum might be asked to step into Dean’s departing role, as  Sean Bunting is also a pending free agent.

Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. enters a contract year in 2023, projected to earn near $3M with a performance bonus built into his salary. Marcus Williams’ 5 year, $70M deal in Baltimore is a strong comp for Winfield’s next payday. Mike Edwards, Logan Ryan, & Keanu Neal making the secondary a serious priority this March & April.

The Special Teamers

Bubble Kicker

K Ryan Succop enters a contract year in 2023, set to carry a  $4.5M cap hit. Having missed almost 20% of his field goals last season, the Bucs could opt for the $3.75M of cap space to be freed up here.

2022 4th round punter Jake Camarda enters Year 2 of his rookie deal, while veteran LS Zach Triner enters a contract year on a minimum $1M salary.

Following their loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, the Buffalo Bills now enter offseason mode, projecting to carry around -$16M of Top 51 cap space, including 9 players with hits north of $10M next season. We’ll dive into each position group, breaking down contract statuses, potential restructures, extensions, cuts, & more.

Related

• 2023 Bills Salary Cap Table
• Bills 2023 Free Agents

The Quarterback Room

Restructure & Replenish

Josh Allen skids into the postseason having battled injury & poor play down the stretch, but (obviously) remains the key piece to Buffalo’s puzzle going forward. Contractually speaking his deal contains early vesting guarantees through the 2025 season, with $97.5M to be earned over the next three seasons. His $39.7M cap hit for 2023 ranks 4th in the NFL, making him a restructure candidate this March. A full base salary conversion can open up over $21M of space for the Bills in 2023.

Behind him Case Keenum is a pending free agent, having taken just 24 regular season snaps for the Bills in his 1 season. 

The Running Back Room

Consider the Options

RB1 Devin Singletary heads to the open market this March with a $5.5M valuation attached to him. He joins a large list of potentially available halfbacks this free agency.

2022 2nd rounder James Cook holds 3 years, $3.7M remaining on his rookie deal, and is likely thrust into a much larger role next season. Deadline acquisition Nyheim Hines has 2 more years left on his deal, but not of the $10.2M available carries an early guarantee, and the Bills can free up $4.8M of 2023 space by moving on. Hines probably sticks next season with a small restructure for cap purposes.

There’s a dream world where a Miles Sanders type player steps into this offense and balances it out immediately, but there’s another, simpler, more likely world where Buffalo brings in an Alexander Mattison type at a near minimum salary to better serve their financial bottom line. 

The Wide Receiver Room

All In for a 2

29-year old Stefon Diggs enters Year 2 of his 6 year, $124M total contract, set to earn $24.4M on a $20M cap hit next season. Buffalo can restructure his $7.91M salary down to $1.65M, but keeping dead cap at bay on this deal will be a priority for GM Brandon Beane.

Gabriel Davis holds a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1M contract which should represent decent value - even if the Bills drop him down the depth chart a bit with a signature WR add this offseason.

Youngster Khalil Shakir enters Year 2 of his rookie contract, with 3 years, $2.9M non-guaranteed remaining. His role continued to grow as the regular season aged on, and he could be developed into an important piece of the puzzle this summer. Isaiah McKenzie more than doubled his production from 2021->2022, finishing with 4 TDs and over 10.1 yards per reception. His role seemed to be reduced heavily down the stretch though, and Buffalo can free up $2.2M of space by moving on in some capacity.

Don’t be surprised if Buffalo makes a big add here, potentially via trade. This is a win now team without time to “see how it develops”.

The Tight End Room

Lightly In for a 2

Dawson Knox enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $54.5M contract, set to earn $12.5M on a $6.4M cap hit this season. $10M of his 2024 compensation becomes fully guaranteed this March. He’ll be year-to-year thereafter.

Behind him, Quintin Morris is on a minimum salary, while Tommy Sweeney is slated for free agency. If Knox is going to remain a more down field threat in the passing game, a block first, short yardage TE2 is on the wishlist.

The Offensive Line

Middle Out Compression

Left Tackle Dion Dawkins enters Year 4 of his 5 year contract, set to earn $9.85M on a $14.8M cap hit. Buffalo can free up $6.15M of 2023 cap with a base salary conversion, but that would make back to back offseasons doing so.

Left Guard Rodger Saffold is slated for free agency (leaving behind $2M of dead cap), while Center Mitch Morse is a roster bubble candidate, as his release can open up $6.3M of space. The 30 year old is one of the locker room leaders on this team, but with Ryan Bates able to slide over to the center position from his current right guard slot, Buffalo may opt to get out of this contract.

Right Guard Ryan Bates holds a fully guaranteed $4M in 2023, on a tenable $4.875M cap hit, while Right Tackle Spencer Brown has 2 years, $2.4M (non-guaranteed) left on his rookie deal.

There’s an addition or two to be made here, with a 1st round selection this April very possible. 

The Defensive Line

Oliver's Twist

Ed Oliver enters his fully guaranteed $10.75M 5th year, putting the Bills in a tough spot as he heads toward a contract year. He seemed a slam dunk to be (mildly) extended heading into the 2022 season, but there’s argument to be made that the production and consistency just doesn’t warrant it.

Tim Settle offered limited production in a limited role, and his near $5M cap hit likely falls off freeing up $2.2M. DaQuan Jones is half fully guaranteed and sticks around.

The Bills have other needs (WR2, ILB, S, G/C) but finding a run stuffer in the middle that doesn’t break the bank has to be in the conversation.

The Edge Defender

Run it Back

Von Miller returns for Year 2 of his massive contract, fully guaranteed through 2023, and mostly guaranteed through 2024 right now. His presence was missed down the stretch in 2022, but it’s a reminder that despite his high pay, Buffalo can’t rely on him as a truly full-time player.

Greg Rousseau enters Year 3 of his 5-year rookie contract, set to earn a fully guaranteed $1.7M. He posted 7 sacks in 12 2022 games, and should be asked to do even more next season. The same might not be said for 2020 2nd rounder A.J. Epenesa, who enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.4M. He’ll enter March as a trade/cut candidate in our book.

Elsewhere, Carlos Basham Jr. holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $2.5M, while Jordan Phillips & Shaq Lawson are slated for free agency.

The Linebackers

Will Edmunds Play Ball

Matt Milano proved he’s worth every dollar again in 2022, making up for a dip in sacks (1.5) with 3 interceptions, and 72 solo tackles. He’s year to year now in his remaining 2 years $20M.

2022 3rd rounder Terrel Bernard saw limited work in his first campaign, but could be asked to step into much bigger shoes if pending free agent Tremaine Edmunds isn’t retained. Edmunds finished his best season to date, but his 5 years in Buffalo were inconsistent to say the least, putting him on an $11M valuation heading toward the open market. Many believe he’s a $17M per year player when it’s all said and done. Edmunds backup A.J. Klein is also headed back to free agency.

The Secondary

Safety First

Tre'Davious White only saw action in 6 regular season games as he worked his way back from a torn ACL. He’s more than half guaranteed ($6.35M) through 2023 right now, while the remaining $3.25M locks in March 19th. White’s contract gets right side up after the upcoming season, meaning the Bills will have an out if they feel like he can’t return to All-Pro form.

Kaiir Elam enters Year 2 of his 5 year rookie contract, set to earn a fully guaranteed $1.3M this season. He held his own in 12 games of action, grabbing 2 INTs in his rookie campaign, and is likely asked to take over the full-time RCB starting role next September.

Behind them, Dane Jackson is headed to restricted free agency, with a projected $2.6M tender in front of him. Taron Johnson enters Year 3 of a 4 year deal, set to account for $9.215M of 2023 cap. There’s $4.2M to be saved by moving off of that contract, but Johnson seems too valuable to give up on this March. A small restructure to free up some space makes sense here.

The safety position might hold the most question marks on this roster going forward, as Jordan Poyer is now set to hit the open market (values at $11M per year), and Micah Hyde gets set to return from a season long neck injury, on an expiring 1 year, $7.2M contract ($10.5M cap hit). It’s tough to imagine the 32 year old getting another contract in Buffalo, but the Bills can open up $4.5M of cap space by processing a full cash conversion.

Behind them, Damar Hamlin’s return is obviously in serious question (2 years, $2M non-guaranteed remaining on his contract), while Siran Neal holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $5.5M deal.

The Special Teamers

Long Term Bass

K Tyler Bass made 87.5% of his field goals for the 2nd straight season, cashing 43/45 PATs as well. The 6th round pick enters a contract year in 2023, and should be considered an extension candidate. He projects to a 4 year, $19.2M contract in our system.

P Sam Martin had his lowest number of attempts in 6 years, and is headed to free agency this March, while LS Reid Ferguson is under contract at a non-guaranteed 2 years, $2.2M.

The Los Angeles Lakers haven’t been mentioned in every trade rumor this season, but it sure seems that way. Now, the Lakers are finally poised to push a deal across the finish line.

The Lakers will reportedly send Kendrick Nunn and three second-round picks to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Rui Hachimura. The deal is reportedly on course to be completed later in the day on Monday.

This isn’t the blockbuster that many were waiting on for the Lakers, but it’s still a good move that will help them immediately. That said, even this potentially small of a move can have major ramifications beyond just the final few months of the 2022-23 season.

Los Angeles Lakers

On the basketball side, Rui Hachimura is a great fit for Los Angeles. The Lakers only healthy forward with real size was LeBron James. He’s been taxed to some degree by having to play almost all of his minutes at power forward this season. Hachimura will give the Lakers some additional size in the frontcourt, and he can play alongside both James and Anthony Davis (when the latter gets healthy) in lineups that will be fairly sizable across the frontline.

On offense, Hachimura has settled into a complementary scoring role. He’s able to overpower smaller defenders, while using his quickness against bigger players. Hachimura has also developed a fairly reliable jumper over the years. He’s not much of a passer, but the Lakers should have covered. One continuing worrisome trend is that Hachimura is an inconsistent scorer. Just this past week, he’s gone for 16 points, 0 points and 30 points over a three-game stretch.

On defense, Hachimura doesn’t offer a ton. He’s best when guarding fours, but he can do ok against slower threes. He’s a solid enough rebounder, as his rebounding rates have generally remained consistent when adjusted for playing time. He’s not fixing any defensive issues the Lakers may have, minus some on the glass, but he’s also not taking anything off the table from their current mini-sized lineups either.

Essentially, Hachimura is being added as a flyer to bring a little size to the Lakers, along with some offensive punch to the frontcourt. Given the reasonable cost to acquire him, this is a very low-risk gamble by Los Angeles.

Kendrick Nunn was a consistent rotation player, but he’s part of a guard mix for the Lakers that runs five-deep beyond him when healthy. Swapping Nunn for Hachimura rebalances the rotation and should allow Darvin Ham to avoid relying on so many three- and sometimes four-guard lineups.

It’s on the cap sheet where this deal starts to get really interesting. Prior to this trade, the Lakers were looking at somewhere in the range of $30 to $35 million in cap space this summer. Reports are that LA wants to sign Hachimura to a new deal this summer, when the forward will be eligible for restricted free agency.

In order to do so, and to avoid another team swooping in, the Lakers will have to retain Hachimura’s $18.8 million cap hold. That hold, combined with the likely $2.2 million cap hold for pending restricted free agent Austin Reaves, will be enough to keep Los Angeles over the cap this summer.

That may seem confusing, but here’s how it works: The Lakers were projected to be at roughly $33 million in space before this deal. That was by wiping the books clean of all but the guaranteed salaries of James, Davis and Max Christie, while retaining a cap hold for Austin Reaves.

Now, you add $18.8 million for Hachimura and that space reduces to roughly $14 to $15 million. At that point, that space is less than the combined amount of the Non-Taxpayer Midlevel Exception and the Bi-Annual Exception. Add those against the space, and you have Los Angeles acting as an over-the-cap team in July.

But here’s how Rob Pelinka and the front office can still do some work in free agency beyond just using exceptions. Barring the most incredible final 30-game run the NBA has ever seen, Hachimura isn’t going to be anywhere near $18.8 million in Year 1 salary on his new deal. If the Lakers could sign him to a reasonable new deal, they could still have cap space to play with. (And it will be a new contract and not an extension. As he is wrapping up his rookie scale contract, Hachimura is no longer extension-eligible). Something around $10 million feels fair for Hachimura in Year 1 salary.

If the Lakers sign Hachimura to a deal that includes $10 million in Year 1 salary, they could then wipe away all the rest of their cap holds, minus Reaves’ $2.2 million. In that case, the Lakers would still have roughly $23.5 million to work with this summer, in addition to the $5.8 million room exception. That’s enough to start filling out the roster to build better depth around a core group that now includes James, Davis, Hachimura and Reaves.

It's easy to say “Now, the Lakers have to sign Hachimura to a new deal”, but this is still a low-risk flyer for the Lakers. If Hachimura works out, they can re-sign him to a reasonable new deal, as laid out above. If Hachimura doesn’t work out, the Lakers can renounce him and still have well over $30 million in cap space. The chance that Hachimura might pop is worth spending three second-rounders of capital on.

Last thing to note, Los Angeles will add almost $3 million to their luxury tax bill. The Lakers are only taking on just over $1 million in salary, but in terms of taxes and penalties, they’ll get hit with just shy of $3 million more on their tax bill.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards side of this deal is far easier to explain. When they didn’t ink Rui Hachimura to an extension, it signaled his days in DC might have been numbered. When Hachimura couldn’t fully break through in a crowded forward group, his time in Washington was fully up.

Before his recent injury, the Wizards had shifted Kristaps Porzingis back to playing at the 4. That allowed Washington to get Daniel Gafford back in the starting lineup. That’s important, because the Wizards have $40.2 million in fully guaranteed money invested in Gafford’s extension which starts next season.

Kyle Kuzma slides to the three in that alignment, but that pushed Deni Avdija to the bench. In that situation, you had Avdija, Hachimura and 2021 first-rounder Corey Kispert all competing for minutes behind Porzingis and Kuzma, who both play in the mid-30 minutes per night range.

Essentially, where there was once a logjam, there no longer is.

Nunn may see some time off the Wizards bench, but he was in this deal as salary ballast. Washington doesn’t really need him when the rest of their guards are healthy. The Wizards already aren’t playing veteran wing Will Barton, so it’s unlikely Nunn cracks the rotation. It’s more likely that Nunn and/or Barton could be moved elsewhere before the deadline. If not, keep an eye on both as buyout candidates.

The real get for Washington in this deal was freeing up that forward rotation and adding three second-round picks for a player they weren’t going to re-sign this summer. The Wizards got the Chicago Bulls second-round pick this summer. That’s likely to end being a middle of the second round selection, but there is some upside there, given Chicago’s inconsistency this season. Then they’ll get the worst of their own pick and the Lakers pick in 2028 and the Lakers pick in 2029. At worst, Washington keeps their own pick in 2028, but could get a potentially juicy selection that is several years out in 2029.

If nothing else, the Wizards now have some additional draft pick capital to work with in future trade offers. That’s good for a team that was a bit light in the future pick column, due to several past trades having not fulfilled all of their obligations just yet.

Last note for Washington: They dropped to about $1.3 million under the tax line. That’s good additional flexibility to have over the next two-and-a-half weeks before the trade deadline. Prior to this deal, the Wizards were a little too close to the tax line for comfort. They should now have enough wiggle room to even add a little bit of salary in any subsequent deal, while still avoiding the tax.

Jon Rahm earns $1.44 million after holding off 23 year old Davis Thompson to win The American Express. Rahm has now won 4 of the last 6 worldwide starts including back-to-back PGA tournament events. He brings his 2023 season earnings to $4.602 million and increases his career official PGA tournament earnings to $39.6 million (26th all-time).

Davis Thompson earns his best finish ever on the PGA Tour earning himself a career high $872,000 for finishing second.

The American Express Top 5

1. Jon Rahm: $1,422,000

2. Davis Thompson: $872,000

T3. Christian Kirk, Xander Schauffele: $472,000

5. Taylor Montgomery: $328,000

Full Results

2023 Tournament Earnings Leaders Update

1. Jon Rahm: $4,602,000

2. Keegan Bradley: $2,585,224

3. Tom Kim: $2,584,485

4. Si Woo Kim: $2,416,775

5. Max Homa: $2,449,805

Full List

With their loss to the San Francisco 49ers, the Dallas Cowboys now enter offseason mode, projecting to carry around $6M of Top 51 cap space, including 5 players with hits north of $13M next season. We’ll dive into each position group, breaking down contract statuses, potential restructures, extensions, cuts, & more.

Related:

• 2023 Cowboys Cap Table
• 2023 Cowboys Free Agents

The Quarterback Room

Status: Treading Lightly?

Dak Prescott enters Year 3 of his 4 year, $160M contract, including $31M fully guaranteed next season. His cap figure skyrockets to $49.1M for 2023, putting the Cowboys in another difficult financial position. Dallas has already restructured the Prescott deal twice, piling up future cap hits and dead cap counts. Converting $26M of his next year salary into signing bonus can free up over $20M of cap space, but it means $60M of dead cap now tied to a non-guaranteed 2024 season - and $37.4M of dead cap tied to a voidable 2025.

We’ll know a lot about the Cowboys’ confidence in Dak by mid-April. If Dallas goes light (or not at all) on restructuring the 2023 cap hit, it’s a sign that they have reservations about his long term status.

Behind him, Cooper Rush is a pending UFA & Will Grier holds a non-guaranteed $1.08M.

The Running Back Room

Status: Questions

Despite remaining a fan favorite (and potentially a front office favorite), Ezekiel Elliott’s massive contract finally gets right side up in 2023, meaning the Cowboys can actually save cap space by moving on. Elliott holds 4 non-guaranteed years at $52.9M total, and a $16.72M cap hit for 2023 (2nd most in all of football). Dallas can free up $4.68M of space by moving on before June 1st, $10.9M if the move is processed after June 1st.

Behind (next) to him, Tony Pollard hits the open market with an awful broken fibula injury attached to him. His rise to RB1 production had him valuing toward a 3 year, $27M contract in our system, but that’s now TBD based on his health. It’s possible that Dallas slaps an estimated $10M franchise tag on him next month to lock in his roster spot - especially if moving on from Elliott is also in their plans.

Youngster Malik Davis has a minimum salary deal for 2023.

The Pass Catcher Room

Status: Amari Cooper for a 5th

Just a reminder that Amari Cooper was trading to the Browns for a 5th round pick, and a 6th round pick swap.

CeeDee Lamb is now extension eligible to the first time, and padded his market value nicely in 2022. The 23 year old now projects to a baseline 4 year, $90M extension in our system, though A.J. Brown’s $25M per year is very much in play here.

Michael Gallup enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $57M contract, including $11M fully guaranteed for 2023 ($13.8M cap hit). It’s most likely a make it or break it season for the 26 year old, as Dallas can move off of this contract with ease after 2023.

2022 4th rounder Jake Ferguson could move into the TE1 role next year, though bringing back Dalton Schultz (pending UFA) or adding an offseason vet should very much be in the cards.

Elsewhere, Noah Brown, T.Y. Hilton are all slated for free agency this March.

The Offensive Line

Status: Tyron on the Bubble?

2022 1st rounder Tyler Smith has all but secured the left tackle position going forward, and his 3 year, $5.7M + 5th year option in 2026 contract certainly equals great value in that regard.

Former blindside tackle Tyron Smith missed most of 2022, and has only been active for 17 games over the past 3 seasons. He took over right tackle duties upon returning, but enters a contract season in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $13.6M, with a $17.6M cap hit. Dallas can free up $9.5M of cap by moving on this March. He’s one of the better roster bubble candidates across the league this offseason.

Zack Martin was named to the AP All-Pro 1st team - his sixth such honor. The 32 year old holds a non-guaranteed 2 years, $27.5M, including a $19.8M cap hit for 2023. Dallas can open up $9.8M of space by restructure his base salary.

Left Guard/Center Connor McGovern is a pending free agent, while Tyler Biadasz, who started 16 games this season, enters the final year of his rookie contract.

The Defensive Line

Status: Young & Cheap

The Cowboys interior D-Line is full of young options as Osa Odighizuwa (Year 3), Sam Williams (Year 2), & Neville Gallimore (Year 4) all remain on rookie deals to start 2023. Vet ??Johnathan Hankins is slated for free agency.

The Edge Rushers

Status: All Good

One of the better groups in all of football remain under contract through 2023. Micah Parsons enters Year 3 of his rookie deal, and becomes extension eligible after the upcoming season (get your orders in affair Jerry).

30 year old DeMarcus Lawrence (6 sacks, 65 tackles, 3 forced fumbles) holds a whopping $26M cap hit for 2023, and his $15M salary is already fully guaranteed. A full salary conversion can open up more than $11M of space for Dallas.

2018 4th rounder Dorance Armstrong enters a contract year in 2023, coming off of his most productive season to date (6.5 sacks, 33 tackles, 1 forced fumble). There’s $4M to be saved here by moving on, but his $7M cap figure should be fair value based on his recent output. He becomes even more valuable with Dante Fowler Jr. slated for free agency behind him.

The Linebackers

Status: Priority Add

Vets Anthony Barr & Leighton Vander Esch are both pending UFAs, leaving 2022 5th rounder Damone Clark & 2021 4th rounder Jabril Cox as the only off-ball linebacker options under contract. Dallas could stand to improve here, though they won’t necessarily be able to break the bank in order to do so.

The Secondary

Status: Safety Valves

This time last season, Trevon Diggs was on a fast track to getting his early contract extension. While his overall production predictably came back down to earth (59 tackles, 3 INTs) it’s his inconsistency in coverage that really has many questioning the path forward (nearly 70% of balls thrown at him were caught). Dallas is probably ok seeing one more season to get a better picture.

Anthony Brown was on his way to securing a 3rd contract with Dallas before an achilles tear. He’s slated for free agency this March. His replacement DaRon Bland wound up being one of the better stories on the roster, as the 2022 5th rounder picked off 5 passes this past season. He’ll enter Year 2 of his value rookie deal next season.

Both safeties, Jayron Kearse & Malik Hooker will enter contract years in 2023, and both have a case for extensions. Dallas is thin at this position, so tacking on a few years to these vets while also replenishing this pool via the draft makes a lot of sense this Spring.

The Special Teamers

Status: Kicker Out, Punter Cut?

Kicker Brett Maher is an expiring contract and it seems impossible he returns to Dallas anytime soon. Punter Bryan Anger holds a 2 year, $5.2M contract, with $1.2M of that becoming fully guaranteed March 19th. The Cowboys can open up $1.4M of cap space if they decide to move on prior to that.

Before we lay out the options here, a few initial thoughts and points. We project the Ravens to enter the offseason with about $32.8M of Top 51 cap space - which is also what we project the non-exclusive franchise tag for quarterbacks to value to. No big deal, Baltimore will just restructure a few contracts and be free and clear for March 15th, right?

Kind of. Baltimore utilizes a double-bonus structure in almost all of their larger contracts, which does the job of spreading the cap out at the time of signing, offering less chance to restructure in big waves down the road. That doesn't mean they can't restructure base salaries and free up space, in fact doing so with Ronnie Stanley & Maron Humphrey can open up more than $16M of room - it just means there's less meat on the bone right now than other teams might have to work with.

This is in no way a claim that the Ravens won't be able to handle a tag for Jackson, rather simply a point that a $32M+ cap hit will be a big deal to this front office ($8M more than any cap hit Baltimore has ever rostered), and it will affect the way they do business in the coming months.

The Exclusive Franchise Tag

The most likely option (still) is that the Baltimore Ravens slap an exclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson this February. Why? Because it gives them absolute control over the situation this spring. Lamar won't be able to negotiate with another team. And if the relationship breaks down, the Ravens can trade Jackson for whatever asking price they wish.

The exclusive QB tag currently projects to cost $45.24M. Except not yet. This exact figure won't be determined until after the restricted tender season ends, somewhere around early April. What does this mean for the Ravens? Baltimore will carry the non-exclusive franchise tag value (projected to be around $32M) until that exclusive price is set.

The exclusive price is based on the Top 5 QB cap hits, workout bonuses excluded. Right now, those 5 figures are extremely fluid, as Deshaun Watson's $54.9M, Dak Prescott's $49.1M, & Patrick Mahomes' $46.8M cap figures are surely to be restructured, while Josh Allen's $39.7M figure is most likely to be converted down, & Ryan Tannehill's $36.6M number might be removed altogether based on his roster status. In other words, let's treat this is as a $32M hit in March until further notice.

The Non-Exclusive Franchise Tag

The Ravens utilize the non-exclusive tag, currently projected to value at $32M, this February. Why? Because they aren't worried about him signing an offer sheet elsewhere. They'll match it. The idea of him leaving on an offer sheet and Baltimore getting back only 2 first round picks for their QB1 is moot, because the Ravens simply won't let it get to that point. What's the thinking then behind this move? Let's see if another franchise offers what Lamar has been holding out for - a fully guaranteed, Deshaun Watson contract. Be careful what you wish for Baltimore.

The Tag & Trade

Lamar Jackson is offered a franchise tag, but the two sides are already too far apart on negotiation to even get back to the drawing board with it. The Ravens start fielding trade calls and are certain to be seeking something along the lines of the package that Deshaun Watson was valued at last March: Three first round picks, 1 third round pick, 2 4th round picks.

Jackson will need to sign the franchise tag in order to process the trade, so that won't happen until A) He's happy with the team that's agreed to the trade. B) The acquiring team has offered the multi-year extension he's been seeking.

At this juncture, we'd place this option as the favorite in the clubhouse for a variety of reasons.

A Multi-Year Extension

Jackson and the Ravens agree to a multi-year contract extension in the coming weeks, avoiding the need to use the franchise tag. Here's what matters most to Lamar for this negotiation:

Top Guarantees
1. Deshaun Watson, $230M
2. Kyler Murray, $189.5M
3. Russell Wilson $161M
4. Aaron Rodgers, $150.8M
5. Josh Allen, $150M
VIEW ALL

The Ravens likely classify the Watson deal as a standalone bag of trash, which is fine - except agents and players will refuse to. Will the two sides compromise in the middle of the Top 2? Would a 4 year, $200M, fully guaranteed offer get the job done? It's certainly not something we'd expect from Baltimore, but it's at least an option. A contract like this would slot Jackson well ahead of Kyler's guarantee, while also lifiting him to the $50M per year mark (for bragging purposes). The 4 year term might favor Baltimore, as there have to be obvious concerns about his injury history now and going forward. The issue? It's being widely reported that the Ravens' largest guarantee offer was $133M. Miles apart.

If Lamar is tagged (exclusive or non), the two sides will have until July 15, 2023 to negotiate an extension. After that date, Lamar must play on a 1 year deal for the 2023 season.

The Tag Hostage Situation

Lamar Jackson is tagged, the Ravens refuse to trade him, but also refuse to give in on his fully guaranteed contract request. Jackson doesn't sign the tag and the Ravens are now stuck with a $32M+ placeholder all spring and summer (which could rise into the $40Ms if it's the exclusive tag). Their ability to build the roster, and set themselves up for 2023 (especially at the QB position) are now dwarfed.

The Let Him Walk Option

The Ravens decide acquiring draft picks is too much work, vote against restructuring contracts in order to fit a franchise tag for Jackson on their books, and simply let him walk into free agency on March 15th. There are zero worlds where this happens.

As the 2023 NFL offseason closes in, Spotrac's Positional Breakdown series continues with a deep dive into the financial statuses of each team's running back position, including rostered players, remaining term & guarantees, and stability at the starting & backup roles.

SPOTRAC'S OFFSEASON SERIES
AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR

Arizona Cardinals

Status: Hollywood’s Team

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $15M

DeAndre Hopkins saw all of his future salary guarantees void per his 2022 PED suspension, but the 30 year old is still averaging 7 grabs and 80 yards per game in Arizona. His $30.75M cap hit currently ranks 2nd among all Wide Receivers, so another salary restructure could be in order for 2023. Was his trade request for real? The Cardinals $8.1M of cap space with an early trade of Hopkins. Also, why is a great wide receiver trying to leave Kyler Murray?

Marquise Brown was acquired at least year’s draft, on the cusp of Hopkins’ PED news. He carries a fully guaranteed $13.4M 5th year option next season, but a multi-year extension is likely - though probably not great timing for the 25 year old. Injury and a dip in production (especially touchdowns) has lowered his valuation into the $17M per year range in our system.

Robbie Anderson was acquired from Carolina at the deadline to fill a few injury voids. It’s a lock that they’ll take the $12M to be freed by moving on next March. Rondale Moore carries a non-guaranteed 2 year $2.9M remaining, while Greg Dortch is slated for restricted free agency.

Atlanta Falcons

Status: Bueller?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $56M

Drake London will enter year 2, presumably with a new quarterback, and extremely high expectations. His rookie deal contains 3 year, $8M (fully guaranteed) + a 2026 option.

Behind him Olamide Zaccheaus, Damiere Byrd, & Khadarel Hodge are all slated for unrestricted free agency this March, leaving the cupboards pretty bare.

Baltimore Ravens

Status: Seeking Durability (and maybe a true #1)

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $32M

Rashod Bateman battled injury again in 2022, making a healthy 2023 a must for the 23 year old. His rookie deal contains 2 years, $4.1M (fully guaranteed) + a 2025 option.

Devin Duvernay will be entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.1M. Despite a significant foot injury and mild production in the receiving game for 3 seasons, his value as a return man should put him in contention for an offseason extension.

Demarcus Robinson & Sammy Watkins are both slated to hit free agency.

Buffalo Bills

Status: Status Quo.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$5M

Stefon Diggs locked in $70M on a $96M extension this past April, including $24M next season. His $20M cap hit should be tenable for the Bills, who can free up cap space elsewhere as needed.

Gabriel Davis will be entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M. He’s a light extension candidate, though the Bills are probably happy to get another cost-controlled year to evaluate where the next 3-4 years might be headed at the #2/#3 WR positions. It’s a position of need both in free agency & via the draft this offseason. Davis’ future could follow the Christian Kirk path ($18M+, increased role), or the Michael Gallup path ($11.5M, reduced role).

Behind them,Isaiah McKenzie is due a non-guaranteed $2.2M ($2.5M cap hit), 5th rounder Khalil Shakir holds a non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M, while Jamison Crowder & Jake Kumerow are unrestricted free agents, 

Carolina Panthers

Status: More like Moore.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$4M

D.J. Moore signed a 3 year extension that included $41.6M fully guaranteed through part of 2024. A full base salary restructure can free up $15.1M of his current $25M cap hit next year.

Behind him, Terrace Marshall holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $2.6M, Shi Smith holds a non-guaranteed 2 year $1.95M, & Laviska Shenault holds a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1.65M.

Safe to say there’s a new pass catcher or two to be added alongside a new QB1.

Chicago Bears

Status: Find Fields a Few (great) Friends

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $115M

Acquired at this year’s deadline, Chase Claypool holds a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1.5M through 2023, his contract year. It’s tough to imagine an early extension making sense here.

Darnell Mooney wasn’t holding up to his 2021 breakout even before his season-ending ankle injury. He’ll be entering a contract year in 2023, on a non-guaranteed 1M salary. The Bears probably want to see him re-find that top form before considering a new deal.

2022 3rd rounder Velus Jones will be back in the mix, holding a non-guaranteed 3 year, $3.6M deal, while 4 vets (Byron Pringle, N'Keal Harry, Dante Pettis, & Equanimeous St. Brown) are slated for unrestricted free agency.

Cincinnati Bengals

Status: Searching Couches for Coins 

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $49M

Ja'Marr Chase doesn’t become extension-eligible until after the 2023 season, as his rookie contract holds 2 years, $8.2M fully guaranteed + 2025 option. The 22-year-old is already a $25M+ player in our system.

Tee Higgins does become extension eligible this March, having posted career-highs across the board (even with 1 less game on the books in 2022). How the Bengals decide to handle deals for Burrow, Higgins, & Chase (to name a few) over the next 18 months will be a fascinating watch. He’s a 4 year, $80M player in our system currently.

Tyler Boyd is a roster bubble candidate this March, staring down a $10.3M cap hit that can free up $8.9M if he’s moved on from. UDFA Trenton Irwin has already begun to sneak a few targets away from him this season, so the writing may already be on the wall.

Cleveland Browns

Status: A Redo for Coop?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$9M

Amari Cooper holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $40M contract through 2024, and his cap hit jumps to $23.7M next season (6th among WRs). The Browns have roster holes to address, and minimal cap space to work with (even after they restructure Deshaun Watson’s historic cap hit). Cooper probably did enough this year to show he’s still a true WR1 in this league, and at 29 year old, should warrant a restructured contract this offseason. Stefon Diggs’ 4 year, $96M deal in Buffalo is a strong target here.

Behind him, Donovan Peoples-Jones emerged as the clear #2 option, but is entering a contract year himself in 2023 (non-guaranteed $1M). Cleveland likely lets him play it out, banking on a lack of competition for his services come March 2024.

A bevy of non-guaranteed rookie contracts remain intact for 2023 behind them.

Dallas Cowboys

Status: CeeDee Pay Day

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $5.8M

CeeDee Lamb becomes extension eligible this offseason, currently projecting toward a 4 year, $90M deal in our system. With Amari Cooper now off of the books, and Michael Gallup in on a team-friendly price, there should be plenty to go around for a Lamb deal.

Michael Gallup’s $57M extension this past March contains only $27M fully guaranteed, including $11M in 2023. Noah Brown is slated for unrestricted free agency.

Denver Broncos

Status: Potential Shake Up

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $13M

Courtland Sutton enters Year 3 of a 5 year, $63M contract, and is fully guaranteed at $14M through 2023. The final 2 years, $27.5M of his deal are non-guaranteed.

Jerry Jeudy enters a potential contract year (Broncos must decide on his 5th year option this May), coming off of his most productive season (67 catches, 972 yards, 6 TDs). Has he done enough to warrant sticking around for a few more seasons? Will Denver listen to trade offers this spring? Tim Patrick should be back in the fold with $5.5M of his $8.5M compensation already fully guaranteed. He’ll have a 1 year, $10M “option” after 2023.

K.J. Hamler might be the odd man out this spring, as the speedster can’t stay healthy, and his expiring contract can free up $1.5M if moved on from.

Detroit Lions

Status: Young & Talented

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $18M

Amon-Ra St. Brown has 196 catches, 2,073 yards, and 11 TDs in his first two NFL seasons. The 4th rounder is a diamond in the rough, and holds 2 years, $2M (non-guaranteed) remaining on his rookie deal. He becomes extension eligible after the 2023 season.

Behind him, 1st rounder Jameson Williams started to find his sea legs by the end of 2022, and his 3 years, $6.7M (fully guaranteed) plus a 2026 option will offer great value for the Lions to keep building around.

Josh Reynolds remained productive as a complimentary option and his $3.25M salary ($3.9M cap hit) shouldn’t be a problem. DJ Chark is a pending free agent, projecting to a 3 year, $28M deal in our system.

Green Bay Packers

Status: Young, Talented, but Thin

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$14M

Christian Watson took big steps toward being the next true WR1 in Green Bay, and his 3 year, $4.6M contract (mostly guaranteed) should remain outstanding value. 2022 4th rounder Romeo Doubs looks the part as well, especially at 3 years, $2.9M (non-guaranteed).

Allen Lazard & Randall Cobb are both pending UFAs, so the Packers will (once again) need to address the WR room this March if they want Aaron Rodgers back in the fold.

Houston Texans

Status: Let Go Brandin

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $41M

Brandin Cooks said his goodbye after Week 18, which complicates the 2 years, $35M ($18M guaranteed) remaining on his contract. They may have to eat a bit of that 2023 compensation to get him out the door, but it seems inevitable.

Chris Moore & Phillip Dorsett are pending free agents, while a host of youngsters (Amari Rodgers, Nico Collins to name a few) are on near minimums for the next few seasons. 2022 2nd rounder John Metchie (leukemia) has a chance to be ready for the 2023 season. His rookie deal holds 3 years, $4.2M remaining.

Houston has a lot of building to do before they’re ready to pay for weapons.

Indianapolis Colts

Status: QB First Please

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $20M

Michael Pittman Jr. enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.7M. He has 184 catches and almost 2,000 yards receiving over the past two seasons, though many of his other metrics dipped in 2022. Christian Kirk’s 4 year, $72M deal is a likely baseline here.

Elsewhere Parris Campbell & Ashton Dulin are pending free agents, while 2022 2nd rounder Alec Pierce carries a 3 year, $3.9M deal, $1M guaranteed.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Status: Ridley’s Believe it or Not

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$18M

Christian Kirk’s bigtime free agent deal looks great 9 months later. He’ll earn a fully guaranteed $16M next season with a non-guaranteed 2 years, $33M thereafter. Zay Jones enters Year 2 of a 3 year, $24M contract, and will earn a fully guaranteed $8M next season. While the versatile Jamal Agnew brings a non-guaranteed $4.75M, $5.8M cap hit to the table.

And oh by the way, the Jags acquired Calvin Ridley from the Falcons at the deadline, bringing in his (now) non-guaranteed $11.1M 5th year option salary for 2023. Vet Marvin Jones is slated for free agency this March.

Kansas City Chiefs

Status: Good JuJu?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $14M

After a 78 catch, 933 yard season, JuJu Smith-Schuster is slated for free agency, posting a $14.6M valuation in our system. Marquez Valdes-Scantling enters Year 2 of his 3 year, $30M deal, and most of his $9M compensation for 2023 fully guarantees March 17th. While unlikely, it’s possible for the Chiefs to move on from MVS prior to that date, saving $7M of cap. Mecole Hardman is also set for free agency this March.

Deadline acquisition Kadarius Toney holds a fully guaranteed 2 year, $4.4M, plus a 5th-year option for 2025. While youngster, Skyy Moore carries 3 years, $3.8M remaining on his rookie contract. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Status: Much of the Same

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $21M

Davante Adams enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $140M contract in Vegas, including $26.6M cash, and a friendly $14.7M cap hit. Another $43M of compensation becomes fully guaranteed this March, locking him in through 2024.

Hunter Renfrow enters Year 2 of a 3 year, $34M deal, including $11.5M cash (half guaranteed) on a $13.1M cap hit, while Mack Hollins & Keelan Cole are slated for free agency. There shouldn’t be too much movement here, but a new QB can always change things.

Los Angeles Chargers

Status: Restructure & Repair 

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$19M

Keenan Allen holds 2 years, $42.1M remaining on his deal, including a $3.5M roster bonus due March 19th. A full cash restructure + 3 void years can open up more than $14M of space this March. Mike Williams enters Year 2 of his 3 year, $60M extension, including $12M cash and a $19M cap hit for 2023. A full cash restructure + 3 void years can open up more than $8.7M this March.

Josh Palmer’s rookie contract contains 2 years, $2.4M non-guaranteed remaining, while ??Deandre Carter & Jalen Guyton are slated for free agency.

Los Angeles Rams

Status: Running it Back Healthy

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$2.6M

Cooper Kupp holds 4 year, $79.85M remaining on his deal, and another $35M of it becomes fully guaranteed on March 17th. $15M of his $27.8M cap hit for 2023 can be opened up with a full compensation restructure.

Allen Robinson is fully guaranteed at $15.25M this season, while Van Jefferson enters a contract year on a non-guaranteed $1.3M & Ben Skowronek holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $2M deal.

It’s tough to expect much movement if at all here.

Miami Dolphins

Status: Back Fill

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$14M

Tyreek Hill enters Year 2 of a 5 year, $140M contract, set to earn $26.1M on a $31.45M cap figure. A full cash restructure + a void year can open up $19.8M of cap space.

Jaylen Waddle’s rookie deal contains 2 years, $7.5M guaranteed plus a 5th year option for 2025. He had an up and down 2022, but still shows plenty of big time player potential - and value.

With $5M of Cedrick Wilson’s 2023 salary fully guaranteed, he’s a lock to be back next season.

Minnesota Vikings

Status: Pay Him or Trade Him

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$13M

Justin Jefferson only has 324 catches, 4,825 yards, and 25 TDs in his first three seasons, which should only translate to about $27M per year if and when the Vikings decide paying him right now is the best business decision. He’s now extension eligible for the first time.

Longtime #2 Adam Thielen probably falls off of this roster, as moving on from the 32 year old can free up $6.4M this March. K.J. Osborn enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M in the final season of his rookie contract.

With Cousins entering a contract year, Dalvin Cook entering the backside, and the defense full of aging vets, is this the right time to be extending weapons? How Minnesota handles the Jefferson situation over the next 24 months will be must watch.

New England Patriots

Status: Swing Big

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $46M

Jakobi Meyers is a pending free agent, projected to bank a 4 year, $50M deal in our system. 

Vet DeVante Parker enters a contract year, set to earn a non-guaranteed $6.3M, all of which can fall off the books if he’s moved on from.

Underutilized weapon Kendrick Bourne enters a contract year, set to earn $5.5M on a $6.8M cap hit, while Nelson Agholor is slated for free agency this March.

This feels like a roster that needs to find a true #1 - potentially via trade.

New Orleans Saints

Status: Olave & the Field

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$52M

Chris Olave was everything he was drafted to be almost immediately out of the gate, and his progression will only make life easier for New Orleans, who hold him on 3 years, $7.25M plus a 2026 option year.

Michael Thomas’ restructured his deal for one of two reasons: to make 2023 a swan song, or to make it easier for New Orleans to move on this March. We’ll assume the latter, meaning they’ll designate him a Post 6/1 release on March 15th, carry his $13.6M cap hit through June 1st, then take on $12M of dead cap this year, $14M next year, freeing up another $1.7M of space. He’ll be free to sign with a new team in March.

Tre'quan Smith has a $200,000 roster bonus due March 19th. The Saints can free up $1.9M of space by moving on before that. Jarvis Landry & Deonte Harty should both be allowed to hit the open market.

New York Giants

Status: They Bought Out Kenny.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $56M

The Kenny Golladay experiment shouldn’t be allowed to continue, but there’s a fully guaranteed $4.5M roster bonus sitting in the way right now. If the Giants are willing to pay it out as a parting gift, they can free up $11.2M of cap space by moving on this March.

2022 2nd rounder Wan'dale Robinson will be back in the fold with 3 years, $4.26M, as will Isaiah Hodgins on a minimum salary. But Darius Slayton, Richie James, & Sterling Shepard are all slated for free agency.

New York Jets

Status: Seeking a #2

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $8.1M

Garrett Wilson is a Rookie of the Year candidate after his 74 catch, 1,014 yard inaugural season, and his fully guaranteed 3 year, $7.7M (plus 2026 option) contract should offer the Jets immense value. He won’t become extension eligible until after the 2024 campaign.

Corey Davis enters a contract year, set to earn $10.5M on an $11.1M cap hit. All $10.5M can be free up if the Jets decide to go in a different direction.

Elijah Moore will get his wish with a new OC next season, and his 2 year, $3.3M remaining rookie contract makes him good value to stay, or a solid trade chip as well. The Denzel Mims era in NY is likely over, as the Jets can free up $1.35M with an outright release or trade.

Philadelphia Eagles

Status: Healthy.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $10M

A.J. Brown’s response to being acquired and handed a $100M contract was a career high 88 catches, 1,500 yards, and 11 TDs. He’ll be fully guaranteed through 2024 come March 17th, but even paying this guy $57M for 3 years seems a heck of a deal right now.

Sort of under the radar, DeVonta Smith caught 95 balls for 1,200 yards and 7 TDs in his sophomore campaign. He’s fully guaranteed at 2 years, $6M + a 5th year option in 2025, and becomes extension eligible after the 2023 season.

Quez Watkins enters a contract year, and his release can free up $1M of space if needed. Oh and by the way, they hold the #10 pick in April’s draft.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Status: Value

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$302k

Diontae Johnson signed a 2 year, $36M extension last August, but as the Steelers tend to do - only 2022 was fully guaranteed at signing. He’s set to earn $10.5M in 2023 (including a $2.5M March roster bonus), and a simple restructure of that compensation plus void years can open up over $7.5M of cap space.

George Pickens looks every bit the part as the next great Steelers WR draft pick. Only $1M of his remaining 3 years, $3.9M is guaranteed, and he won’t be extension eligible until after the 2024 season. Value at its finest.

There are 6 other WRs under contract or team control, but with two second round picks this April, don’t count out another young weapon being added into the mix.

San Francisco 49ers

Status: Aiyuk’s Option

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $13.5M

Deebo Samuel enters Year 2 of a 4 year, $76M deal, set to earn $11.3M on a very friendly $8.5M cap hit. He’s stable through at least 2024.

Brandon Aiyuk put together a very strong 2022 (78 grabs, 1,015 yards, 8 TDs) at a time when he needed it most. San Francisco will have to decide on his 5th year option this May putting his fully guaranteed 1 year, $2.3M deal on a bit of notice.

Jauan Jennings was an unlikely #3 last season, and with a minimum salary going forward, should remain in the mix even if the Niners add another weapon here.

Seattle Seahawks

Status: Find a Number Three

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $34.5M

D.K. Metcalf enters Year 2 of a 4 year, $76M contract, set to carry a very tenable $13.72M cap hit next season. Tyler Lockett enters his age 31 season, and his contract holds a pretty clear potential out after 2023, but a $9.7M payout, $16.75M cap hit won’t hurt anyone.

It’s probably time to eat crow on the D'Wayne Eskridge bust pick and move on this March, taking on $844k of dead cap, freeing up $778k.

Marquise Goodwin was productive in a complimentary role, but his (annual) injury history might make it tough to run it back.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Status: Why Don’t You Just Go Without Mike?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$55M

Chris Godwin enters year 2 of a 3 year, $60M deal, and will almost certainly see his $20M base salary restructured (clearing up a max $15.1M of space).

Mike Evans is entering a contract year, and his status is questionable. Are the Bucs in the right position to lock in another (30 year old) weapon right now? Are the draft picks brought back in a trade potentially more valuable to this franchise right now? It’s a 1 year, $14.5M ($1.5M March bonus), with a $23.6M cap hit - and the Bucs would only free up $2.3M of space with an early trade, but it’s still a maybe.

Julio Jones & Breshad Perriman are both likely allowed to test the open market this March.

Tennessee Titans

Status: Burks & a Reboot

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$23M

Injury kept Treylon Burks’ inaugural campaign at bay, but he’ll be asked to take a big step forward over the 3 years, $6M fully guaranteed plus a 5th year option through 2026.

Robert Woods gave Tennessee 17 weeks last year, but it probably wasn’t productive enough to justify $13.75M for 2023. There’s $12M of much needed to cap to open up by moving on here.

There are multiple additions to be made here.

Washington Commanders

Status: Ready for a Consistent QB

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $12.5

Terry McLaurin enters year 2 of a 5 year, $71M contract in Washington with a fully guaranteed $5.4M to boot. $12.5M of his 2024 compensation fully guarantees on March 17th as well.

The Commanders finally got the production they were seeking out of Curtis Samuel in 2022, and he’ll enter a contract year this season, set to earn a non-guaranteed $10.6M. There’s $5.8M of space to be freed up if they want to go in a different direction.

Jahan Dotson is fully guaranteed at 3 years, $6.6M + a 2026 option, while Dyami Brown owns a non-guaranteed 2 years, $2.1M. 

As the Toronto Raptors continue to wallow below .500 and out of the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament picture, trade rumors swirl around most of their roster. Recent reports say the Raptors will “do something” before the February 9 trade deadline. Toronto President Masai Ujiri isn’t one who is content to sit in the middle, so expect the Raptors to pick a direction soon. They’ll either be all-in or they’ll be resetting the roster ahead of a busy offseason.

One player caught in the center of all of this swirl is veteran point guard Fred VanVleet. Recently, VanVleet addressed his contract and potential extension negotiations with the Raptors. He didn’t say much beyond his loyalty is with the Raptors. On reports that he turned down a contract extension, VanVleet’s response was that there hadn’t been an offer made for him to turn down.

That’s all well and good, but a player of VanVleet’s caliber is going to be made an extension offer. Even if an official one hasn’t been made, VanVleet, his reps and the Raptors know what the max they can offer him is. The other option is that VanVleet could play things out and immediately become one of the best players on the free agent market this summer. Let’s look at what VanVleet’s next contract could look like.

The Veteran Extension

The most beneficial extension scenario for Fred VanVleet would be to decline his player option for next season. This would allow him to add four years via an extension. If VanVleet opted in for next season, he’d only be able to add up to three years. He could wait, and extend after opting in, but that’s probably not something that’s on the table.

In a four-year extension by declining his option, here’s what VanVleet’s deal would look like:

• 2023-24: $25,500,000
• 2024-25: $27,540,000
• 2025-26: $29,580,000
• 2026-27: $31,620,000
• Total: four years, $114,240,000

That’s a bump of 20% over VanVleet’s current $21,250,000 salary with 8% raises on top of that.

This deal would give VanVleet an average annual value (AAV) of $28.56 million. That’s well below his max salary, but in range of what a realistic salary could be if VanVleet opted for free agency.

For reference, $25.5 million would make VanVleet the 14th highest paid point guard next season. He’d be right behind Jalen Brunson and just ahead of Mike Conley. That feels about right for VanVleet, as far as company goes. Non-All-Stars, but right at the top of that next tier down.

Given that company, the dearth of quality free agents next summer and the need to have a good point guard, we have to ask: could VanVleet do better by simply opting out and hitting the open market?

Re-signing with the Raptors as a free agent

Toronto’s leg-up on the competition to re-sign Fred VanVleet is that they can offer him a fifth year and they can offer him 8% raises vs being limited to four-years deals with 5% raises. The max VanVleet can get in free agency from Toronto looks like this:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the full 30% of the cap max, with 8% raises and the max of five years.

This deal would immediately vault VanVleet into third place in salary among all point guards, behind only veteran superstars Stephen Curry and Damian Lillard. He’d be ahead of Luka Doncic and Trae Young (in the second years of their Designated Rookie extensions) and on par with someone like Ja Morant (who seems destined to quality for a Designated Rookie extension).

If you blanch at that kind of money for VanVleet, don’t worry. You aren’t alone. He’s not getting a full max deal. We’re simply setting the high-end that he could sign for. History tells us VanVleet will land somewhere south of that $40.2 million number in first-year salary.

Signing with another team as a free agent

Fred VanVleet is going to fall somewhere between the top-five and top-10 on available free agent lists this summer. We’ve got him ranked fifth overall, and the players in front of him (James Harden, Kyrie Irving, Draymond Green and Khris Middleton) are more likely to re-sign with their teams than they are to leave.

That could put VanVleet in play to be the best free agent to actually change teams this summer. We’ve already got reporting that the Phoenix Suns and Orlando Magic could be interested in acquiring the veteran point guard to lead their offenses.

Here’s the most a rival team could offer VanVleet:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $42,210,000
• 2025-26: $44,220,000
• 2026-27: $46,320,000
• Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s the same 30% of the cap in first-year salary, but the max another team can offer VanVleet is four years and 5% raises.

We’ve already covered where that would place VanVleet among his peers at his position next season. That’s probably not in play.

One other thing to be aware of: This is the most VanVleet could get via a sign-and-trade too. That’s important because of something we’re going to cover next.

The Extend-and-Trade or Extension After a Trade

Extend-and-trade deals are rare, because they don’t really offer all that much for the player. They’re limited to a 5% bump in salary over their current salary and then adding one more year at an 8% bump. In Fred VanVleet’s case, here’s what it would look like for him in the new years of an extend-and-trade:

• 2023-24: $22,312,500
• 2024-25: $24,097,500

That’s over $46 million in new money, but that’s not really where VanVleet is at. He’d also make roughly $500,000 less in the first year of an extend-and-trade than he would by simply opting in with Toronto for next season.

It’s important to note that any team trading for VanVleet can’t extend him immediately either. They’d have to wait for six months to extend him for more than he could get via an extend-and-trade. At that point, it’s probably best for VanVleet to simply opt out and sign a new contract as a free agent.

The Opt-In-And-Trade

Given the reported interest in Fred VanVleet on the potential free agent market, we’re going to cover the idea of an opt-in-and-trade. For example, one of the teams mentioned as a potential landing spot for VanVleet is the Phoenix Suns. If Phoenix is convinced that Chris Paul doesn’t have it anymore (he’s slipped greatly this season), they could look to move on and replace him with VanVleet.

However, Phoenix won’t have the cap space to sign VanVleet outright. And doing a sign-and-trade would subject Phoenix to the hard cap. That makes it tricky to add much salary and to maintain roster flexibility.

Thus, we could see VanVleet opt in for next season under the auspices he’d be traded to Phoenix this summer. Because it would be a straight trade, the hard cap wouldn’t be triggered. And, after a six-month waiting period, Phoenix could do a four-year extension with VanVleet. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $22,824,074
• 2024-25: $27,388,889
• 2025-26: $29,580,000
• 2026-27: $31,771,111
• 2027-28: $33,962,222
• Total: five years, $145,526,296

That’s VanVleet opting in for next season, then extending (after a six-month waiting period) to add four new years. That would follow the Veteran Extension math of a 20% bump in first-year salary, followed by 8% raises on each new year.

As you can see, this could leave a good deal of money on the table over simply signing with a team outright as a free agent. The benefits here are that it allows the acquiring team to avoid becoming hard capped, while allowing VanVleet to still add several years of new money to his deal.

Summary

Fred VanVleet’s contract situation isn’t as cut and dry as many others. He’s not a clearcut max player, so there isn’t an obvious reason for him to play things out to free agency. But VanVleet is also not a deep-career veteran who should take an extension to simply add more years to his deal.

Instead, we have a player who is firmly in the middle. We can absolutely rule out an extend-and-trade. That wouldn’t give VanVleet the money he’s earned, nor the safety of adding multiple years.

That leaves the standard veteran extension or hitting free agency. Given the market, VanVleet should probably forgo an extension, opt out of his current deal and become an unrestricted free agent this summer. That gives him the most control, plus allows for the same long-term security, while adding the ability to make the most money possible.

When suggesting VanVleet should opt for free agency, we need to consider who projects to have cap space. Eight teams project to have in the range of $30 million in cap space this summer. Of those teams, we can probably eliminate the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers as VanVleet suitors. They’ve got their guard positions covered for years to come.

The Los Angeles Lakers are interesting, but they are probably thinking bigger with their cap space. And if they aren’t thinking of adding a third star around LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers should be splitting their cap space up to add much-needed depth.

That leaves the Houston Rockets (they have guards, but are rumored to have interest in reuniting with James Harden so…), Detroit Pistons (if they don’t see Cade Cunningham as a point guard, and they’ve also had VanVleet interest before), Orlando Magic (guard rotation is very much in flux), San Antonio Spurs (Tre Jones is the only point guard on the roster) and the Utah Jazz (whole roster is in flux) as cap space suitors.

Of that group, VanVleet can carve out a market. And that’s before we even get to teams that could do a sign-and-trade with the Toronto Raptors.

Given that a market for VanVleet exists, it’s now about figuring out value. VanVleet will be 29 at the end of February, which means his next deal will cover his age-29 through age-32 seasons. He’s had some injury issues over the last four years, so he’s not exactly a young 29-year-old either.

Now, we have to combine that with some shooting percentages that have slipped to a dangerous level this season. VanVleet has always been an average finisher at the rim and more of a midrange and three-point specialist. Given his shot profile, shooting 40% overall, 37% on three-pointers wasn’t overly worrisome.

This season, VanVleet is under 40% overall and hitting just 33% of his shots from deep. That’s on a high volume of 8.6 three-point attempts per game too. If that’s a blip, whatever. If it isn’t, that’s a bad sign of things to come.

On the flip side, VanVleet remains a fairly rugged defender. He’s strong, so he can hold up against bigger players. He’s also a good rebounder for his position and a good playmaker. Ideally, VanVleet would be the guy who sets your offense and then spots up for open jumpers off others. A high-end organizer, if you will.

Having looked at all that, VanVleet is probably going to garner offers that pay him somewhat near, or above, $30 million in first-year salary. That would put VanVleet right in that Chris Paul/Kyle Lowry territory as veteran point guards who are just outside the top-10 in salary.

If a team were smart, given VanVleet’s age, injury history and potentially declining shooting, they’d frontload his deal. Give him more in Year 1 than what most think is fair, but the contract would then descend each year, to match any potential fall-off in play.

For the Raptors, that deal could look like:

• 2023-24: $33,600,000
• 2024-25: $30,912,000
• 2025-26: $28,224,000
• 2026-27: $25,536,000
• Total: four years, $118,272,000

That’s the max-allowable 8% declines from year to year.

For a rival team, they could offer a declining structure that looks like this:

• 2023-24: $32,000,000
• 2024-25: $30,400,000
• 2025-26: $28,800,000
• 2026-27: $27,200,000
• Total: four years, $118,400,000

That’s the max-allowable 5% declines each year.

In both scenarios, VanVleet gets roughly $118 million. In both scenarios, teams are protected in the early-30s years for VanVleet, in case his play falls way off. For reference, $26 million would be roughly 15% of a $170 million cap in 2026-27. And that could be low-balling where the cap will fall under a new CBA and with new media rights deals in place.

No matter where his next deal lands, Fred VanVleet should skip signing an extension right now. Unless he really wants to stay in Toronto long-term, and he might very well want to, he’s likely leaving money on the table if he forgoes becoming an unrestricted free agent this summer. Bigger offers should await him this offseason, whether they are from the only NBA home he’s known, or elsewhere.