Josh Allen is Underpaid, Now What?

Michael GinnittiJuly 30, 2024

As new quarterback contracts continue to hit the books at historic costs, the separation between deals that were signed just a few years ago becomes greater and greater. There may be no better example of this than Josh Allen, who’s contract with the Buffalo Bills now looks like a rookie wage scale deal in comparison to a few of the more recently signed.

Allen is entering Year 4 of an 8 year, $284.5M contract that was signed in August of 2021, set to earn $30M cash for the upcoming season. In total, the deal has 5 years, $189.5M remaining on it through 2028.

When looking at the QB contract landscape over just the next three seasons, Allen’s cash flow currently ranks 15th. And with a new contract for Dak Prescott looming (now or next March), it’s safe to drop Allen down to 16th for practical purposes.

QB Cash Available 2024-2026

1. Jared Goff, $153.6M
2. Patrick Mahomes, $152.5M
3. Tua Tagovailoa, $149M
4. Jordan Love, $143M
5. Justin Herbert, $140M
6. Deshaun Watson, $138M
7. Joe Burrow, $136M
8. Kirk Cousins, $135M
9. Jalen Hurts, $133M
10. Lamar Jackson, $127M
11. Derek Carr, $120M
T12. Trevor Lawrence, $114M
T12. Kyler Murray, $114M
T12. Daniel Jones, $114M
15. Josh Allen, $108M

As deals for Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, & Tua Tagovailoa are spelled out across the internets, the urge to compare the shiny new numbers to the ghosts of nfl contracts past from Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen becomes irresistible. But the Chiefs agreed to (actually) restructure Mahomes’ cash flow last offseason to sweeten his current pot, while keeping him under term through 2031 (for now).

As shown above, only Jared Goff (who scored a ridiculous $80M payout in 2024) is set to earn more than Mahomes from a cash perspective over the course of the next three seasons.

Of course, the Chiefs felt a bit of an obligation to address their QB1’s cash flow after back to back Super Bowl victories in 2022 & 2023. Josh Allen’s current resume includes 4 straight AFC East titles (2020-2023), but he’s been unable to get his Bills teams over the AFC Championship hump and into a Super Bowl as of yet.

So as talk about the widening gap between Allen’s current contract (which he agreed to) and its place almost exactly in the middle of the starting QB contract landscape increases - will the Buffalo Bills front office feel pressured into reacting? Will Allen and his camp put their foot down at some point over the next 12 months despite a considerable amount of term left on his current deal?

Let’s play out a few scenarios.

A Cash Flow Restructure

Allen doesn’t have a Mahomes resume to boast, but he’s garnered enough clout to bring the “sweeten the pot” convo to the table. Let’s keep something in mind here however.

Here’s the current cash breakdown for Josh Allen’s remaining contract:

2024: $30M
2025: $39.5M ($25M roster bonus)
2026: $38.5M ($15M roster bonus)
2027: $40M ($25M roster bonus)
2028: $41.55M ($25M roster bonus)

I’ve highlighted the included roster bonuses because that seems to be the most logical path to bringing money forward on the deal (without having to process a brand new deal from scratch). Per the list of 3-year payouts above, Allen sits about $45M below the very top of the pay class, and around $20M from cracking the Top 10 (he’s currently 15th per this metric).

If the Bills agree to pull forward Allen’s $25M roster bonus from 2028 into 2025 & 2026, will it be enough to keep him on the deal until the 2027 offseason?

Potential Updated Cash Flow:
2024: $30M
2025: $51.5M
2026: $51.5M
3-Year Total: $133M (ties Jalen Hurts for 9th)

Is Josh Allen the 9th best quarterback in football? No. But that’s not how the financial rankings ever play out. Timing is everything, and unfortunately for Allen, he agreed to a contract that was (at least) 3 years too long.

A Complete Do-Over

Before we get here, it should be noted that the Bills (or any NFL front office) will want absolutely nothing to do with a rip-up-and-start-over contract for a player that has 4 years remaining on his current deal. And nor should they quite frankly.

However, for purposes of this exercise, we’ll assume that Allen has another Allen type season in 2024, and Buffalo feels compelled to explore every option to keep their franchise QB1 at peak happiness (especially with a big, new, expensive stadium in the process of being built).

Here’s a quick look at every NFL veteran contract that has been ripped up with 4+ years left on it in order to sign the player to a bigger, better contract:

None. The answer is none.

Current Market Value

As the QB money ladder continues to climb, so do the valuations for players nearing their next big contract. For Allen, our math tells us he projects toward a 5 year, $299.8M contract, or just a sliver under $60M per year.

However, for this exercise, we’re going to build in the idea that Allen & his camp will take a slight “average salary” discount as concession for Buffalo going the extra-extra mile to rip up their first swing and a miss of a contract and start fresh here.

Keep in mind, there’s an awful lot of bonus proration being transferred from old contract to new here, so the numbers get messy pretty quickly…

Potential Brand New, From Scratch Contract

We’re offering up a 5 year, $287.5M contract for Josh Allen that begins in 2025 and runs through the 2029 season. A void year in 2030 was added to allow a 2026 option bonus to prorate the full 5 seasons.

Bonuses
The deal includes a $45M signing bonus in 2025, a $45M option bonus in 2026, and early March roster bonuses of $25M in each of 2027-2029. Annual $1M workout bonuses are carried over from his previous deal, offering plenty of opportunities for Allen to get cash in hand throughout the calendar year.

Cash Flow
From a cash flow standpoint, the big number to note here is $155.5M. That’s the 3-year payout on this contract, and it surpasses Lamar Jackson’s current high mark of $155.25M (though Dak Prescott may soon have something to say about this). On the previous deal, Allen was set to earn $39.5M/$38.5M/$40M from 2025-2027. That’s been updated to $51M/$56M/$48.5M in our projection.

Guarantees
This breakdown includes $130M fully guaranteed at signing by way of a $45M signing bonus (2025), $45M option bonus (2026), $25M roster bonus (2027), and $15M of base salary in 2025-2026. In March of 2026, the $22.5M base salary for 2027 & $25M roster bonus for 2028 will become fully guaranteed. In March of 2027, the $23.75M of base salary for 2028 will become fully guaranteed, placing a $201.25M practical guarantee on this contract. This represents a 70% guarantee for Allen through 2028.

Cap Hits
The cap hits begin to look terrifying pretty quickly on this breakdown, but there are a few things to keep in mind here.

First, Allen’s current cap hit for 2025 is $60.7M. Per our projection, Buffalo would be clearing $24.5M of space, with another $9.5M freed up in 2026 ($56.4M down to $46.9M). A $75.9M cap hit for 2027 looks astronomical today, but with a league salary cap expected to be north of $310M that season, the Bills would only need to process a simple conversion on that $25M roster bonus to make things “doable” through Year 3 of this deal.

A similar conversation can be had about 2028, though it’s very easy to see that the dead cap and void years will begin to pile up quickly - something GM Brandon Beane has done a nice job of avoiding throughout his tenure in Buffalo.

Overall Thoughts
Obviously this is just one way to slice this loaf of bread. The deal could be constructed with a much more front-loaded outlook, make cap hits in 2027-2028 easier to work with, and making for less need to kick the can down the road. But any way you look at it, starting over fresh with Josh Allen next spring/summer comes with an awful lot of financial challenges.

A Do-Nothing Approach

At least for 2025, this seems to be the most likely scenario. Not because Josh Allen doesn’t deserve to be earning Top 10 QB money (cash, not AAV). Rather, the current deal just simply holds too much paid out bonus proration on it to tinker with next year.

2025 will be the final year of proration from the original $16.5M 2021 signing bonus, and the 2nd to last year of proration from the $42.4M 2022 option bonus. The contract has also gone through two significant cap conversions in 2023 & 2024 that have laid out bonus proration through the 2028 season.

Waiting until after 2025 to get serious about a new contract for Allen eliminates over $21M of bonus that would need to transfer over and be dealt with immediately. In 2026, Allen’s contract will have 3 years, $120M remaining on it which is still way too early for many franchises to discuss extending out of, but might be the right time for Buffalo to put their QB1 into a more competitive, representative contract for the current times.

Potential 2026 Renegotiation

For our 2026 projection, we've upped the overall value of the contract to 5 years, $300M for purposes of general inflation (and additional QB contracts that may then be on the books). This should still represent a near but not at the top of the market price point for Allen & the Bills. The signing and option bonuses have been increased to $50M each, but for the most part, the year-to-year & guarantee structure of the deal remains the same from our 2025 projection.

Prediction

Allen plays out 2024 at his $30M cash salary, further accentuates his place as a Top 2 quarterback in the league, and puts the Bills' front office in a position where they feel somewhat obligated to make a move.

The better business move for Buffalo is clearly a "sweeten the cash flow" approach, so Allen sees a significant pay raise ($10M-$12M per year)& an early guarantee on all of his 2026 compensation across both 2025 & 2026, with a penciled in plan to formally extend their QB1 during the 2027 offseason (assuming all is right and well).

josh allen

Breaking Down Tua Tagovailoa's $212.4M Extension

Michael GinnittiJuly 27, 2024

The Extension Terms

Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins came to terms on a 4 year, $212.4M extension yesterday that keeps the QB under contract through the 2028 season. It easily surpasses Tyreek Hill’s $120M contract as the largest total value deal in Dolphins’ history, while the $212.4M figure ranks 11th among active NFL contracts.

The $53.1M contract average is the 2nd largest figure in NFL history, but Tua now ranks 4th in AAV behind Burrow, Lawrence, and Love - all who clock in at $55M. Against the current $255.4M league salary cap, Tua’s AAV represents 20.79%, which ranks 12th in the league (behind Lawrence, ahead of Goff).

The Guarantee Structure

Tagovailoa’s new deal contains $93.171M fully guaranteed at signing, by way of a $42M signing bonus, his 2024 salary, 2025 salary, and a $25M 2025 offseason roster bonus. The $93.171M currently ranks 12th among all contracts, while a sub 40% total value guarantee (39.5%) is quite a bit less than the recent near/top of the market QB contracts to hit the books.

It’s clear this was a major sticking point for the Dolphins amidst negotiations.

Next March, his $54M 2026 salary becomes fully guaranteed. This figure is guaranteed for injury at signing.

In March of 2026, $3M of Tua’s 2027 salary becomes fully guaranteed. $20M of this salary is guaranteed for injury at signing. The remaining $17M becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2027.

This calculates to a practical guarantee of $167.1M, (8th most) though it should be noted that the final $17M of 2027 salary should be considered a loose guarantee at this stage (is that the most oxymoronic statement ever?).

The Cash Flow

Tua will earn $43.125M in 2024, up nearly $20M from his previous $23.171M 5th-year-option.
The 2-year payout comes in at $94.1M, good enough for 5th among active contracts, while the 3-year cash flow hands Tua $149.1M, 3rd most and ahead of Joe Burrow.

Tua Tagovailoa’s Cash Flow
2024: $43.125M
2025: $51M
2026: $55M
2027: $37M
2028: $49.4M

Of note, the Dolphins compromised on a very strong early cash flow in lieu of making the 4th year of this contract more stable for Tua. When looking at the cash per year breakdown, it’s safe to assume that if all is going well after 2026, Miami will be willing to begin the re-negotiation process, when Tua will still be 28-years-old.

The Salary Cap Hits

An average signing bonus ($42M) and minimum salary for 2024 kept his cap hit for the upcoming season extremely team-friendly ($9.525M). It’s a savings of $13.6M from his 5th-year-option salary before the extension.

From there however, the onus will be put on the front office to manage Tua’s salary cap figures going forward. There’s a juicy $25M roster bonus (fully guaranteed) to be paid out next March that seems like a lock to be converted to a signing bonus for cap purposes. But the 2026 financials will need a wait-and-see approach. If the wheels are falling off on the relationship, Miami may be inclined to keep all or most of his $54M base salary intact, rather than add more dead cap to a soon to be traded or released player.

Tua Tagovailoa’s Cap Hits
2024: $9.5M
2025: $59.4M
2026: $63.4M
2027: $45.4M
2028: $57.8M

Attainable Incentives

The new deal contains incentives each of 2025-2028 that are tied to a combination of playing time and playoff success.

50% regular season snaps + Wild Card Win: $250,000
50% regular season snaps + Divisional Round Win: $500,000
50% regular season snaps + Conf. Championship Win: $500,000
50% regular season snaps + Super Bowl Win Win: $1M

A Potential Out Discussion

Miami was able to draw a pretty thick line in the sand after 2026 here. Even after they convert the $25M roster bonus for next season into signing bonus (and assuming no other conversion), the Dolphins will only be strapped with $34.8M of dead cap to move on before the 2027 campaign. ($3M of that comes in the form of fully guaranteed 2027 salary)

2027 should be the line of demarcation for both sides here. If it’s not working out, the Dolphins can and will bail. If it’s still full steam ahead, Tua should be aggressively seeking a contract extension after 2026, especially with “only” $37M allocated to the 2027 season.

This will immediately become one of the more polarizing, closely-watched contracts in 2024, as Tua’s injury history and lack of playoff production kept many followers wondering if the extension should have ever happened in the first place.

So let’s play it out this way: The Dolphins and Tua don’t agree on an extension. He ends his holdout prior to Week 1, earns his full $23.1M 5th-year option salary, plays out a $43M franchise tag in 2025, and plays out a $51M 2nd franchise tag in 2026. That’s 3 years, $118M.

Under these new terms, Tua is likely to earn $149M+ over the next 3 seasons, plus a $3M buyout guarantee in 2027 to get us to $152M+. That’s a difference of $34M. Is a potential franchise QB for 3 seasons worth an extra $34M in order to keep him happy, not holding out, and in the best frame of mind to produce? Most teams would say yes.

tua tagovailoa

Breaking Down Jordan Love's $220M Extension

Michael GinnittiJuly 27, 2024

The Extension Terms

Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers agreed to a 4 year, $220M contract extension last night. The deal adds on to his previous 1 year, $11M contract, combining for 5 years, $231M in total value. The $220M new money value ranks 10th among active contracts, but becomes the largest in Packers history by a country mile (Aaron Rodgers, $150.8M).

At $55M per year, Love is now tied with Joe Burrow & Trevor Lawrence as the highest average paid players in football, but this ranking should come with a fairly sizable asterisk. When pinning this metric against the league salary cap at the time of signing, Love/Lawrence’s AAV drops to 10th, at 21.53%. Burrow remains the leader in the clubhouse for this metric, as his $55M last offseason represents 24.47% of the league cap.

The Signing Bonus

The Packers have long operated as a franchise that hands out guarantees exclusively via the signing bonus. While Love’s new deal is one of the (very) few that contains additional salary guarantee, Green Bay handed their QB1 a record-setting $75M signing bonus. Of that, $25M will be paid next week, another $25M will be paid October 4th, and the final $25M will be paid out on December 27th. It’s an outstanding pay structure for an extraordinary bonus.

The previous breadwinner at this metric just received the belt a few weeks ago: Jared Goff, $73M per his new deal with the Lions.

Top 5 Signing Bonuses in NFL History

Jordan Love (GB, 2024): $75M
Jared Goff (DET, 2024): $73M
Lamar Jackson (BLT, 2023): $72.5M
Dak Prescott (DAL, 2021): $66M
Russell Wilson (SEA, 2021): $65M

The Guarantee Structure

As noted above, the Packers broke tradition by guaranteeing more than just a signing bonus. Jordan Love’s $100.8M guaranteed at signing consists of his signing bonus, 2024 salary, 2025 salary, 2026 salary. The $100.8M currently ranks 9th among NFL contracts, but at nearly 44% of the total value of the contract ($231M), this is a fairly strong number.

Next March 16th, the remaining $39.5M of Love’s 2026 compensation (an option bonus) will become fully guaranteed. All of that is guaranteed for injury at the time of signing.

On the 5th league day of 2026, $20M of Love’s 2027 compensation becomes fully guaranteed. All of that is guaranteed for injury at the time of signing, and subject to offsets.

This calculates to a practical guarantee of $160.3M, which also ranks 9th among active contracts.

The Cash Flow

Love will make $79M in 2024, which is more than his previously available $11M I’m told. Only Jared Goff & Lamar Jackson (who each secured $80M) have locked in more out of the gate.

The 2-year payout for Love comes in at $92M, good enough for 6th among active contracts, while the 3-year cash flow hands Love $143M, 5th most and just behind Joe Burrow.

Jordan Love’s Cash Flow
2024: $79M
2025: $13M
2026: $51M
2027: $43M
2028: $45M

The Salary Cap Hits

The triple-bonus structure of this contract means very tenable cap hits early on in the deal, with a fluffy finale in 2028. We’re also projecting the use of 3 void years in 2029-2031 which allows the option bonuses to prorate a full 5 years, but leaves behind $34.7M of dead cap at the expiration of the contract after 2028.

Jordan Love’s Cap Hits

2024: $20.7M
2025: $29.7M
2026: $36.1M
2027: $42.4M
2028: $74.2M

The contract extension added $8M of cap to the upcoming 2024 season.

A Potential Out Discussion

Despite early vesting guarantees into the 2027 season, this is really a “3 years and we’ll see contract”. If the wheels are falling off between the two sides at any point over the next three seasons, the Packers can walk away after 2026 - but it will cost them.

Here’s the scenario: The Packers enter the 2026 offseason realizing Love may not be the future of the franchise. The decline a $39.5M option bonus (which is already guaranteed), choosing to take it all on as guaranteed salary instead. The move raises his 2026 cap hit to $67.7M, which is high, but will be doable in a near $300M league salary cap world. After 2026, Green Bay can outright release Love, taking on $51M of dead cap all at once, or $36M in 2027, $15M in 2028 as a Post 6/1 release. The catch? $20M of that dead cap will consist of fully guaranteed salary to be paid to Love, that is subject to offset language if he were to sign elsewhere for the season.

So yea, it’s a 3 year contract for slightly practical purposes, but much more plausible as a 4 year, $186M deal through the 2027 season. At this point in time, Love will be 29-years-old, and if things are going swimmingly, both sides will be ready to engage in new contract negotiations.

If things aren’t in shape to proceed after 2027, expect a Post June 1st release in March of 2028, leaving behind $29.2M of dead cap for that season, and another $34.7M in 2029. These figures can be reduced heavily if Green Bay were to decline Love’s $31.5M option bonus, instead choosing to take it all on as 2027 salary.

Plenty of options, a few fairly decent outs halfway through, but also a pretty strong contract for a player with very few game reps or big wins in his back pocket.

A Win For “Trust the Process”

When the Packers selected Jordan Love #26 overall back in 2020, the collective groans could be heard across all of NFL Nation. Green Bay was still attached at the hip to Aaron Rodgers, and it was widely believed that they were a high prospect offensive weapon or two away from being able to reach Super Bowl aspirations again.

Instead, the Packers’ front office decided to store a potential next-QB1 in their back pocket, starting the clock on his rookie contract value immediately - to much grief from those who follow closely (myself included). Rodgers responded with back-to-back league MVP seasons, furthering the groans, what-ifs, and whys with this draft decision.

Love would see action in just 10 games before Green Bay finally made the decision to trade away Aaron Rodgers and turn the keys over to their 2020 1st Rounder. Though the timing of the move came on the heels of another big decision: Jordan Love’s $20.2M 5th-year-option. Would they fully guarantee their QB1 through 2024 without really knowing if he’s the man for the job?

Love and the Packers agreed on a creative, bridge extension that handed him a near $6M raise in 2023 (from $4M to $9.9M), with a chance for Green Bay to move on thereafter and cut their losses. Love responded about as well as possible in his first full season at QB1, forcing his front office to turn that bridge contract into a fully developed QB contract. And here we are.

jordan love

The 2024 MLB Trade Deadline Primer

Michael GinnittiJuly 25, 2024

As the July 30th MLB Trade Deadline approaches, many teams have already begun to maneuver for the dog-day stretch of the 2024 season. The Oakland Athletics have already started their annual “trade, demote, or designate anyone with a million dollar salary” process. The smaller markets (Kansas City/Baltimore) have taken a head start into trade season, adding to their respective bullpens before the real fun begins. And of course, the need to watch the standings on a daily basis has become as important as ever, as we all collectively attempt to decipher which teams will be buyers, sellers, or a little bit of both over the next 8 days.

Spotrac has scoured the internets, listened to all of the relevant podcasts, and of course run through hours and hours of game film to generate the most complete list of players at least marginally rumored to be on the move this summer. Some will, many won’t, a few will have never even been in the running - but for the most part, this is a decent guide to use for the next week.

Our list includes a positional grouping of players, their remaining 2024 salary at the July 30th deadline, and their future contract status (UFA, Arbitration eligibility, guaranteed salary, etc…).

POSITIVE & NEGATIVE TAX TEAMS

But first, a quick update as to where certain teams stand in terms of the CBT heading toward August. As you might imagine, the Mets are currently positioned in the worst shape, carrying a projected $342M tax payroll ($105M over the threshold). They stand to owe an estimated $91M bill at year end. The Dodgers ($329M) & Yankees ($315M) round out the $300M+ club right now, with Atlanta ($269M), Houston ($261M), Philly ($261M), San Francisco ($252M), Texas ($251M), & Toronto ($245M) rounding out the remaining teams who currently sit over the $237M league threshold.

Look for San Francisco, Texas, & Toronto to make a concerted attempt to get under that $237M in the coming days (easier said than done).

Also near the tax line are the Cubs ($236M) who remain on the Buy/Sell split line as we speak, but may opt to shave a few million for business purposes, while keeping their focus on establishing a contending team for 2025.

Contenders with ample tax space to burn?

Baltimore: $121M
Pittsburgh: $117M
Cleveland: $102M
Milwaukee: $84M
Seattle: $77M
Kansas City: $76M
Minnesota: $75M

RELATED: MLB Team Tax Space

TRADE CANDIDATES

Catchers

A small, expiring crew on the surface but a contending team taking a swing for Diaz (who stands apart as the big fish here), could prove extremely valuable down the stretch.

Danny Jansen (TOR, $1.6M, UFA)
Elias Diaz (COL, $1.9M, UFA)
Jacob Stallings (COL, $483k, Mutual Option)
Carson Kelly (DET, $1.1M, UFA)

1st Basemen

The position group that holds maybe the biggest “swings” this week, though it seems less and less likely that either Alonso or Vlad Jr. are moved. A monster offer for Paredes might be in play here, as he holds 3 years of team control.

Andrew Vaughn (CHW, $1M, Arbitration thru 2026)
Spencer Torkelson (DET, $238k, Arbitration thru 2028)
Josh Bell (MIA, $5.3M UFA)
Pete Alonso (NYM, $6.6M, UFA)
Wilmer Flores (SF, $2M, Player Option)
Isaac Paredes (TB, $1M, Arbitration thru 2027)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR, $6.4M, Arbitration thru 2025)

2nd Basemen

Rengifo may be the most likely trade candidate here (as the Angels are primed for another sell-off), but India could be one of the bigger sleepers on this entire page. He’s got contender potential and 1 more year of control.

Jonathan India (CIN, $1.2M, Control thru 2026)
Brendan Rodgers (COL, $1M, Arbitration thru 2025)
Luis Rengifo (LAA, $1.4M, Arbitration thru 2025)
Thairo Estrada (SF, $1.5M, Arbitration thru 2025)
Brandon Lowe (TB, $2.8M, Club Option)

Shortstops

DeJong was a castaway player 12 months ago (released 3 different times) but has done enough to warrant interest at this deadline (16 HRs, 12 doubles). With that said, teams looking at DeJong may find it makes more sense to snag one of the below UTIL players instead.

Paul DeJong (CHW, $564k, UFA)

UTIL Players

Urshela can play anywhere on the infield, and Rosario has middle infield/outfield experience for a few organizations. They seem perfect bench adds for teams looking to be relevant in the fall.

Giovanny Urshela (DET, $483k, UFA)
Amed Rosario (TB, $483k, UFA)

Outfielders

Robert’s name keeps coming in and out of focus at the deadline, but a blockbuster move that includes both he and Garrett Crochet might be the headline of this entire week. Chisholm has also become a late yet prominent addition to the rumor mill.

Luis Robert Jr. (CHW, $4M, Control thru 2027)
Tommy Pham (CHW, $967k, UFA)
Jake Cave (COL, $322k, Arbitration thru 2025)
Kevin Pillar (LAA, $322k, UFA)
Taylor Ward (LAA, $1.5M, Arbitration thru 2026)
Jazz Chisholm (MIA, $846k, Arbitration thru 2025)
Harrison Bader (NYM, $3M, UFA)
Miguel Andujar (OAK, $548k, Arbitration thru 2025)
Michael Conforto (SF, $5.8M, UFA)
Mike Yastrzemski (SF, $2.5M, Arbitration thru 2025)
Randy Arozarena (TB, $2.6M, Arbitration thru 2026)
Lane Thomas (WSH, $1.75M, Arbitration thru 2025)

Designated Hitters

Winker seems a slam dunk to move (flipping him at the deadline was basically written into his initial contract), while the A’s will almost certainly need a franchise changing offer to let Rooker or RP Mason Miller loose this month.

Justin Turner (TOR, $4.2M, UFA)
J.D. Martinez (NYM, $3M, UFA)
Jesse Winker (WSH, $483k, UFA)
Brent Rooker (OAK, $241k, Arbitration thru 2027)

Starting Pitchers

Of this lot, Fedde, Flaherty, Anderson, & Kikuchi may be considered most likely to be moved. Even if a full sail sell isn’t in the Mets cards anymore, moving one of their expiring starters seems like good business. Keep an eye on the Giants, who have a half dozen names on this page, but may be most motivated to cash in on Snell before he opts out into free agency this winter (maybe?).

Jameson Taillon (CHC, $5.8M, 2 yrs, $36M)
Garrett Crochet (CHW, $258k, Arbitration thru 2026)
Erick Fedde (CHW, $2.4M, 1 yr, $7.5M)
Frankie Montas (CIN, $4.5M, Mutual Option)
Cal Quantrill (COL, $2.1M, Arbitration thru 2025)
Austin Gomber (COL, $1M, Arbitration thru 2025)
Jack Flaherty (DET, $4.5M, UFA)
Tarik Skubal (DET, $854k, Arbitration thru 2026)
Tyler Anderson (LAA, $4.2M, 1 yr, $13M)
Trevor Rogers (MIA, $493k, Arbitration thru 2026)
Sean Manaea (NYM, $4.6M, Player Option)
Jose Quintana (NYM, $4.2M, UFA)
Luis Severino (NYM, $4.2M, UFA)
Blake Snell (SF, $4.8M, Player Option)
Zach Eflin (TB, $3.5M, 1 yr, $18M)
Zack Littell (TB, $596k, Arbitration thru 2025)
Michael Lorenzen (TEX, $1.45M, UFA)
Andrew Heaney (TEX, $4.2M, UFA)
Jon Gray (TEX, $4.2M, 1 yr, $13M)
Yusei Kikuchi (TOR, $3.2M, UFA)

Relief Pitchers

As per usual, the reliever list comes in as the biggest list, the most likely to be moved list, and the most needed position group across the league. If 10 of these names aren’t moved in the next week, we’ll be absolutely shocked.

John Brebbia (CHW, $1.3M, Mutual Option)
Michael Kopech (CHW, $967k, Arbitration thru 2025)
Fernando Cruz (CIN, $242k, Control thru 2028)
Lucas Sims (CIN, $919k, UFA)
Brent Suter (CIN, $806k, Club Option)
Justin Wilson (CIN, $483k, UFA)
Jalen Beeks (COL, $540k, UFA)
Andrew Chafin (DET, $1.3M, Club Option)
Matt Moore (LAA, $2.9M, UFA)
Carlos Estevez (LAA, $2.1M, UFA)
Luis Garcia (LAA, $1.3M, UFA)
Tanner Scott (MIA, $1.8M, UFA)
A.J. Puk (MIA, $580k, Arbitration thru 2026)
Adam Ottavino (NYM, $1.4M, UFA)
Scott Alexander (OAK, $725k, UFA)
T.J. McFarland (OAK, $483k, UFA)
Austin Adams (OAK, $258k, Arbitration thru 2025)
Mason Miller (OAK, $238k, Control thru 2029)
Lucas Erceg (OAK, $241k, Control thru 2029)
Camilo Doval (SF, $248k, Arbitration thru 2027)
Pete Fairbanks (TB, $1.1M, 1 yr, $3.6M)
Kirby Yates (TEX, $1.4M, UFA)
David Robertson (TEX, $3.2M, Mutual Option)
José Ureña (TEX, $483k, UFA)
Yimi Garcia (TOR, $1.9M, UFA)
Trevor Richards (TOR, $693k, UFA)
Kyle Finnegan (WSH, $1.6M, Arbitration thru 2025)
Dylan Floro (WSH, $725k, UFA)

RELATED: 2025 MLB Free Agents

The 2024 NFL Offseason Financial Recap

Michael GinnittiJuly 15, 2024

Sent John Franklin-Myers (DE, 27) to the Broncos in exchange for a 6th round pick.

Sent Zach Wilson (QB, 24) to the Broncos with a 7th round pick in exchange for a 6th round pick.

Acquired Haason Reddick (ED, 29) from the Eagles for a conditional 3rd round pick. Reddick brings a 1 year, $14.5M contract to NY (begrudgingly).

Acquired Morgan Moses (OT, 33) with a 4th round pick from the Ravens in exchange for a 4th & 6th round pick. Moses brings a 1 year $5.5M contract with him to NY.

Additional Thoughts

The Jets continued their push to bolster the offensive line this offseason both in free agency (Tyron Smith, John Simpson) and at the top of their draft (Olu Fashanu). They then focused in on adding additional air weapons in free agency (Mike Williams) & the top of the draft (Malachi Corley). Tell us you’re going all-in to keep Aaron Rodgers happy & healthy without telling us. This is a Top 5 financially allocated roster right now that could turn a few heads in 2024 if things bounce the right way.

Philadelphia Eagles

Current 90-Man Roster Financials

Top 51 Space: $24.6M (10th)
Total Cap: $269M (26th)
Dead Cap: $50M (8th)

Notable Free Agent Adds

Notable Free Agent Adds

Dorance Armstrong (DE, 27): Leaves the Cowboys on a 3 year, $33M contract that includes $16.1M guaranteed through 2024. He projects to start on the DL.

Frankie Luvu (LB, 27): Leaves the Panthers on a 3 year, $31M contract that includes $19.1M practically guaranteed through 2025. He’ll center the Washington defense in 2024.

Tyler Biadasz (C, 26): Leaves the Cowboys on a 3 year, $29.25M contract that includes $20.7M practically guaranteed through 2025. He projects to start at center this season.

Nick Allegretti (G, 28): Leaves the Chiefs on a 3 year, $16M contract that includes $9M guaranteed through 2025. He projects to serve as the starting LG.

Austin Ekeler (RB, 29): Leaves the Chargers on a 2 year, $8.34M contract that includes $4.2M guaranteed through 2024. He’ll compete for RB1 duties with Brian Robinson.

VIEW ALL

Notable Free Agent Losses

Curtis Samuel (WR, 27): Joins the Bills on a 3 year, $24M contract ($15M guaranteed).

Kendall Fuller (CB, 29): Joins the Dolphins on a 2 year, $15M contract ($8M guaranteed).

Antonio Gibson (RB, 26): Joins the Patriots on a 3 year, $11.25M contract ($5.3M guaranteed).

VIEW ALL

Notable Extensions

None.

Notable Trades

Sent Sam Howell (QB, 23) to Seattle with a 4th & 6th round pick in exchange for a 3rd & 5th round pick.

Additional Thoughts

New regime, new QB1, and apparently no time to waste in Washington. The Commanders were far more aggressive this past free agency than many expected them to be, but are still very much in “evaluation” mode with much of their roster. If a few of these 2024 draft picks pop early, look for a young front office to be extremely active in trade discussions as early as this October. Washington boasts the 3rd most cap space ($36M) heading toward camp.

Projecting a Paul Skenes Extension

Michael GinnittiJuly 12, 2024

To say that Paul Skenes has hit the ground running to begin his MLB career would be the understatement of the season. The numbers are already flying off of the page:

Thru 11 Starts…
IP: 66.1
SO: 89
K/9: 12.1
BB/9: 1.8
ERA: 1.90
ERA+: 215
WHIP: .920
FIP: 2.58
WAR: 3.1

Starting Pitchers in MLB are currently averaging a .708 OPS against. Skenes is operating at a .570 rate. On average, pitchers are striking out batters at a 22.3% clip. Skenes is posting one 35% of the time.

Early Extension Thoughts

The notion of Pittsburgh locking in Skenes might seem sensical to the average eye, but it’s MUCH easier said than done.

For starters, and it’s been heavily discussed, Skenes hasn’t yet gone through an elbow issue, and for a pitcher who averages 99.9 on a fastball he throws 47% of the time, unfortunately, it’s a matter of when not if.

Next, the Pirates have to be willing to admit that they’re in a major spending window. Signing Skenes without the understanding that the next few offseasons will need to come with aggressive free agent & internal signings seems an irrelevant process to follow.

Furthermore, the Pirates have to believe that having Skenes under contract for the foreseeable future is more valuable to them then having Skenes under team control as a tradable asset. In most past cases - Pittsburgh has been grooming players for the trade market. Why would this be any different? (Because it is)

Finally, the contract offer here has hit all of the notes to get Skenes (and his ISE Baseball team) to even open up the PDF file. We’ll discuss what these numbers should look like below.

The Team Control Payout

If we assume that no further action is taken, and the Pirates go year-to-year with Paul Skenes over the next 5 seasons, we can project the following pay structure based on past data. Of course, all of these projections assume that Skenes remains healthy through 2029. It should also be noted that we’re projecting a traditional arbitration path (3 years) here, not a Super 2 (4 years) breakout.

2025 (Pre-Arb 2): $775k ($15k over minimum)
2026 (Pre-Arb 3): $800k ($20k over minimum)
2027 (Arbitration 1): $7M
2028 (Arbitration 2): $11M
2029 (Arbitration 3): $17M
Total: $36.5M

This breakdown represents a $35M payout across Skene’s arbitration-eligible seasons. For reference:
Corbin Burnes: $32.1M (2022-24)
Jake Arrieta: $29.9M (2015-17)
Dallas Keuchel: $29.6M (2016-18)
Shane Bieber: $29.1M (2022-24)
Jacob deGrom: $28.5M (2017-19)
Max Scherzer: $26M (2012-14)
Gerrit Cole: $24M (2017-19)

In other words, Skenes is on pace to obliterate the current team-control pay ceiling based on his production & the continually rising league tax thresholds. No surprise here.

Comparable Extensions

Not really. While early extensions are picking up steam across the league, pitchers have been extremely reluctant to jump into that pool as of yet. There are a few deals to work from here, but no picture perfect comparison for a Paul Skenes extension exists to date.

Hunter Greene (SP, Cincinnati)

The Reds selected Greene #2 overall back in 2017 ($7.2M slot bonus). He went under the Tommy John knife about 14 months later, missing all of 2019, and putting him on a redevelopment plan through most of 2020. He would join the big club in 2022, making 24 starts in his inaugural season (4.44 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.0 WAR).

Cincy rewarded this effort with a 6 year, $53M extension, buying out 2 more pre-arbitration seasons, all 3 arbitration-eligible seasons, and at least 1 free agent season (with a club option to take on 1 more).

2 Pre-Arb Years: $6M ($2M signing bonus)
3 Arb Years: $29M
2 Free Agent Years: $37M
Incentives: $18.2M

Spencer Strider (SP, Atlanta)

Strider punched his Tommy John ticket early, going under the knife in 2018-19 during his college career at Clemson. He was drafted by the Braves upon return from injury as a 4th round pick in 2020, spending the better part of the next two seasons rising through the minor league system.

He was promoted to the big club to finish the 2021 season as a bullpen arm, and would remain a reliever for Atlanta until May 30, 2022 when he was given a chance to start. His quick rise to stardom led to a 6 year, $75M contract extension amidst the Braves’ postseason run. The deal would buyout 2 years of pre-arbitration, 3 years of arbitration, and at least 1 free agent season (with a club option to take on 1 more).

2 Pre-Arb Years: $2M
3 Arb Years: $46M
2 Free Agent Years: $44M

Blake Snell (SP, Tampa Bay)

Snell became the poster child for Rays pitching through the twenty-teens, forcing them to offer a rare multi-year extension prior to the 2019 season. The 5 year, $50 million contract bought-out 1 year of pre-arbitration, 3 years of arbitration, and 1 free agency season.

1 Pre-Arb Year: $4M ($3M signing bonus)
3 Arb Years: $30M
1 Free Agent Year: $16M
Incentives: $3.5M

The Paul Skenes Projection

With all of this in mind (and fully understanding that an 11-game sample size isn’t a worthy dataset to work from), we can look at the following extension numbers for Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates this coming Fall/Winter.

Spotrac is projecting a 7 year, $113.75M extension for Skenes, including a $5M signing bonus, $6.25M in 2025, & a $16.25M tax salary.

Under these terms, Skenes will see a near $5.5M raise for the 2025 season, including a $5M signing bonus. The cashflow drops back down to earth a bit in 2026, but at $2.5M, still represents a sizable raise over a projected $800,000 pre-arb salary.

From there, we’ve built out a truly historic pay structure for Skenes’ arbitration-eligible seasons, offering up $48M across those three years ($10M-$12M more than the projected year-to-year payout).

For his first two free agency seasons (2030-2031), Skenes would earn flat salaries of $28.5M, which represents around $4M of annual value for Pittsburgh based on our current $33.3M market valuation.

Why this Works

If we compare our year-to-year projections for the next 5 seasons ($36.5M) to the 5-year cash flow of this extension projection ($56.75M), the Pirates are basically handing Skenes a $20M payment for the right to keep him 2 additional seasons.

In turn, they would gain back some of that upfront money with free agent value, assuming Skenes is still one of the top pitchers in the game of course.

Skenes puts cash in hand, garners considerable injury protection, and still has the opportunity to negotiate his next contract before turning 30-years-old. All big wins for a young player.

Why this Fails

The list of multi-year contracts handed out to starting pitchers by the Pittsburgh Pirates since 2000 can be counted on 2 hands. (Note: these aren’t just contract extensions - this includes free agency)

Mitch Keller: 5 years, $77M (2024)
Francisco Liriano: 3 years, $39M (2015)
Ivan Nova: 3 years, $26M (2016)
Charlie Morton: 3 years, $21M (2014)
Paul Maholm: 3 years, $14.5M (2009)
Kris Benson: 4 years, $13.8M (2001)
Kevin Correia: 2 years, $8M (2011)
Francisco Liriano: 2 years, $7M (2013)

Recent deals for Keller, 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes (8 years, $70M), & OF Bryan Reynolds (8 years, $106M) are signs of life for a Pittsburgh front office that has long been stuck in neutral, but is it enough to believe they’re ready to go above and beyond with a Skenes offer?

Furthermore - even if the Pirates organization believes they now have a core they can aggressively build around over the next few offseasons, the unfortunate “certainty” of Skenes’ eventual elbow injury makes for an uncomfortable setting.

The Braves, who had already sunk hundreds of millions into their core of Acuna, Albies, Olson, Riley, Murphy, etc. before extended Spencer Strider, must have felt that the injury luck would be on their side with their ace having already gone through Tommy John some 3 seasons prior. That backfired almost immediately with Strider missing all of 2024 for another injury go-around.

It’s become a bit of a guessing game, which has not only suppressed the overall pitching market financially, but it’s changed the way teams think in constructing their rotations as a whole.

The Pirates are also trying to develop 22-year-old phenom Jared Jones alongside Skenes, which would give Pittsburgh one of the best young 1-2 punches in all of baseball. But Jones is now dealing with a lat injury that has grinded his 2024 to a screeching halt.

While common these are the ebbs and flows attached to starting pitching in the modern game that continually keep front offices second guessing themselves - even with a player as elite as Paul Skenes.

Concluding Thoughts

At the time of this post (2024 All-Star Break), the Pirates reside as a near .500 team, stuck in the middle of the NL Central, but showing plenty of signs of development and improvement across the board. They’re a prototypical candidate to become big time players this upcoming winter in an effort to contend both divisionally and for a National League Wild Card berth.

Unfortunately, based on a lack of past aggression financially speaking, Pittsburgh won’t exactly be a Top 3 destination for players set to hit the open market.

Paul Skenes can change that, and he may have already begun to do so in some player’s eyes. A worthy Paul Skenes extension can further change that, as it would act as a flag in the ground moment to the rest of the league (and agents) that the Pirates are open for business, and actively trying to win the National League for the foreseeable future.

Will our projected 7 year, $113.75M contract be enough to woo Skenes? It’s an extremely fair starting point from the player’s perspective, and solid security if and when that arm injury does rear its ugly head.

With that said, we’re probably a year away from being a year away on this one. The Pirates can argue that Skenes’ $8M draft bonus plus looming pre-arbitration bonus pool payments are more than enough to carry him through his next two seasons of team control, after which a Mitch Keller-type extension can be discussed at length.

Skenes declines that offer, plays out 2027, and is traded for a haul the following winter. It’s been the Pirates-Way for a lot of years. Why expect anything different this time around?

paul skenes

The 2024 MLB All-Stars Financially

Michael GinnittiJuly 08, 2024

MLB announced its full 2024 All-Star cast this week, including a record 32 first timers across the board. We’ve detailed each starter below, including current compensation and positional pay rank, plus future contract financials for each.

CATCHER

William Contreras (Brewers)

2024 Salary: $766,900 (41st)

A silver slugger last season, Contreras is on pace to surpass his 2023 numbers in Milwaukee. The 26-year-old will enter arbitration for the first time this winter, putting him on pace for free agency after the 2027 season. He’s a red-hot extension candidate.

Adley Rutschman (Orioles)

2024 Salary: $760,300 (43rd)

The #1 overall pick from 2019 has officially broken out, on pace for 30+ homers, 100+ RBIs and a WAR north of 5. He’ll enter arbitration for the first time this winter, putting him on pace for free agency after 2027. Baltimore has a lot of mouths to feed in the coming months.

1ST BASE

Bryce Harper (Phillies)

2024 Salary: $26,000,000 (2nd)

Harper is on pace to have his best season in 3 years, including an OPS hovering near 1.000 as we approach the break. His massive contract contains 7 years, $170M remaining on it still through 2031 - though there have been rumblings that a renegotiation may be discussed. Harper earns an extra $50,000 bonus for the All-Star nod.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays)

2024 Salary: $19,900,000 (7th)

Vlad doesn’t appear capable of recreating his massive 2021 campaign, but he’s still checking all of the boxes, and has greatly increased his average and efficiency in 2024 thus far. The 25-year-old has one more winter of arbitration ahead of him with free agency pending after 2025.

2ND BASE

Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks)

2024 Salary: $13,000,000 (6th)

Marte carries a 3.75 WAR into July, and he’s on pace to surpass all of his notable numbers from an outstanding 2023 campaign. Contractually he’s in Year 2 of a 5 year, $76M re-up in Arizona that pays out $16M each of the next 2 seasons.

Jose Altuve (Astros)

2024 Salary: $41,000,000 (1st)

Altuve’s $41M payout in 2024 is a combination of a $26M base salary from his current contract, & a $15M signing bonus that precedes his upcoming 5 year, $125M extension in Houston. The 34-year-old is fully locked in through 2029.

SHORTSTOP

Trea Turner (Phillies)

2024 Salary: $27,272,727 (3rd)

Turner’s production is nowhere near where it’s been the past two seasons, but he’s hitting for average, and headlining the best team in baseball right now. The 31-year-old has 9 years, $245M remaining on his contract in Philly. Turner earns an extra $50,000 bonus for the All-Star nod.

Gunnar Henderson (Orioles)

2024 Salary: 756,200 (59th)

The 2023 Rookie of the Year is now making a claim for the 2024 AL MVP conversation. The 23-year-old carries a near 6 WAR toward the break, having already matched many of his numbers from 2023. He won’t be arbitration eligible until 2026, but it’s going to be tough to imagine Baltimore waiting around too long with an extension offer.

3RD BASE

Alec Bohm (Phillies)

2024 Salary: $4,000,000 (18th)

Bohm posted career production numbers in 2023, but his WAR (0.43) left something to be desired. That’s not the case thus far in 2024, as he’s filling up the stat lines plus added value (2.14 WAR headed toward the break). He settled his first arbitration go-around at $4M, and should be in for quite a nice raise this coming winter.

José Ramírez (Guardians)

2024 Salary: $17,000,000 (8th)

Still (somehow) one of the most underrated stars in the game, Ramirez is once again putting together a high-impact season for Cleveland, one of the best teams in baseball. The 31-year-old holds 4 years, $88M remaining on his contract through 2028.

OUTFIELD

Christian Yelich (Brewers)

2024 Salary: $22,000,000 (6th)

Yelich is on pace to post his best season in 6 years and is a major reason the Brewers carry a healthy lead in the NL Central to date. The 35-year-old holds 4 years, $88M remaining on his contract in Milwaukee. Yelich earns an extra $50,000 bonus for the All-Star nod.

Jurickson Profar (Padres)

2024 Salary: $1,000,000 (64th)

Profar didn’t sign his near minimum contract with San Diego until February 12th, making him one of the later free agent additions. He’s posted a 2+ WAR since then, and should have 6-year best production across the board when it’s all said and done. The 32-year-old will hit the open market again this winter.

Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres)

2024 Salary: $11,000,000 (22nd)

Some of the numbers (RBIs, stolen bases) are lagging behind a bit, but overall Tatis Jr. continues to produce in a big way. With the “team-controlled” portion of his extension now off the books, Tatis holds a 10 year, $306M contract ahead of him through 2034.

Aaron Judge (Yankees)

2024 Salary: $40,000,000 (1st)

Judge’s first-half numbers would be an all-star season for 99% of the rest of the league. He has a legitimate chance to post a 10+ WAR for the 2nd time in his career, and MVP #2 could very well be right around the corner. The 32-year-old holds 7 years, $280M remaining through 2031.

Juan Soto (Yankees)

2024 Salary: $31,000,000 (3rd)

Soto’s historic $31M arbitration salary seems like a value play based on first half returns. He’s going to obliterate every career threshold if he can remain healthy. The 25-year-old will be one of the most coveted free agents in years this winter, with a $500M pricetag not entirely out of the question.

Steven Kwan (Guardians)

2024 Salary: $757,600 (86th)

Steven Kwan had a weird 2023 - and so did the Guardians. Steven Kwan is having an outstanding 2024 - and so are the Guardians. The 26-year-old enters July with a batting average north of .360, a WAR north of 3, and a career-high 9 homers already. Kwan becomes arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter.

DESIGNATED HITTER

Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers)

2024 Salary: $2,000,000 (18th)

Obviously there’s a big ole asterisk attached to Ohtani’s $2M payout this year, but it is what it is. He’s on pace for another 40 homer, 1.0+ OPS season, and he’s also going to post a career-high in stolen bases as well. Contractually, he’ll earn another $18M from 2025-2033, then $680M from 2034-2043.

Yordan Alvarez (Astros)

2024 Salary: $10,000,000 (12th)

Everything about the Astros came with a slow start this season, but Alvarez’s numbers are starting to round right into form as we approach the break. He’s got a legitimate shot at 40 doubles, 40 homers, 100 RBIs for the first time. The 27-year-old holds another 4 years, $93M on his current contract through 2028.

STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Glasnow (Dodgers)

2024 Salary: $25,000,000 (6th)

Glasnow’s had more efficient first halves, but he’s on pace to have his most fulfilling season by every measure. In fact, he’s just 11 innings away from posting a career-high. There’s a 3 year, $90M guarantee remaining on his contract through 2027.

Paul Skenes (Pirates)

2024 Salary: $740,000 (211th)

As a May 11th call-up, Skenes’ minimum salary actually maxes out at $560,898 if we’re zeroing in. Talks about generational talent, tommy john, & massive contract extensions are already following this guy wherever he steps on a mound. For now, he’s just one of the best values in all of sports.

Shota Imanaga (Cubs)

2024 Salary: $10,000,000 (53rd)

Imanaga came out firing on all cylinders, but has since been brought back down to earth a bit in recent weeks (as have the Cubs collectively). He’ll earn $13M in 2025, after which the Cubs will have a 3 year, $57M option to decide on.

Reynaldo López (Braves)

2024 Salary: $4,000,000 (89th)

The Braves ace has been lights out to begin 2024, hovering well under a 2 ERA, approaching 100 punchouts, while posting a 3+ WAR as we head into the break. He’ll earn $11M in each of 2025 & 2026, and an $8M club option for 2027 seems highly likely at this point.

Chris Sale (Braves)

2024 Salary: $17,000,000 (23rd)

The Red Sox are paying all of Chris Sale’s 2024 salary, making his comeback in Atlanta an even better story for the Braves. The 35-year-old is on pace for 250 strikeouts, and a WAR approaching 5 after years of injury disappointment. He holds a $22M guarantee in 2025, & an $18M club option in 2026.

Zack Wheeler (Phillies)

2024 Salary: $23,500,000 (12th)

Wheeler is about as consistent as star pitchers get in this generation. He’s well on his way to another 200+ strikeout, 4+ WAR campaign, and he tacked on 3 years, $126M to an expiring contract before the start of the season.

Tyler Anderson (Angels)

2024 Salary: $13,000,000 (41st)

Easily the brightest bulb in the Angels box this season, Anderson has re-found the form he showed in 2022 with the Dodgers. He’s guaranteed another $13M in 2025 and remains one of the top trade candidates heading toward July 30.

Corbin Burnes (Orioles)

2024 Salary: $15,637,000 (29th)

Burnes avoided arbitration with Milwaukee before they shipped him off to Baltimore, locking in his final salary before free agency this coming winter. He’s having a great season even against his own standards (2.32 ERA, 105 Ks, 2.2 WAR in 18 starts), and should find a bidding war ahead of him.

Garrett Crochet (White Sox)

2024 Salary: $800,000 (131st)

Injury-plagued for the better part of two seasons, Crochet is now leading the league in strikeouts, FIP, and K/9. He’ll be due a healthy raise in arbitration this winter, but won’t become free agent eligible until 2027.

Logan Gilbert (Mariners)

2024 Salary: $4,050,000 (88th)

Gilbert is now making it three straight seasons of above average starting pitching. That’s a pretty good way to ensure financial security. The 27-year-old has 3 more years of arbitration still ahead of him.

Tanner Houck (Red Sox)

2024 Salary: $770,000 (135th)

It’s already career-highs across the board for Houck just halfway through the season, putting himself in a nice spot for his first pending arbitration winter.

Seth Lugo (Royals)

2024 Salary: $15,000,000 (30th)

The former reliever has now had successful stints as a starter both in San Diego and Kansas City. He carries a 2.21 ERA and a 3.5 WAR into July, and a 2 year, $30M contract through 2027.

Cole Ragans (Royals)

2024 Salary: $753,750 (151st)

The 2016 1st rounder made 12 outstanding starts for KC after being acquired at least year’s deadline, and has carried that momentum through the first half of 2024 (134 Ks, 130 ERA+). He doesn’t project to be arbitration eligible until 2026, so the Royals are working off of house money here.

Tarik Skubal (Tigers)

2024: $2,650,000 (104th)

It’s been back to back very strong seasons for Skubal, who currently possesses a league-best .900 WHIP. He hasn’t been able to put together a full season since 2021, but he’s on his way to doubling his currently salary this coming winter for a second go-around at arbitration.

RELIEF PITCHER

Tanner Scott (Marlins)

2024 Salary: $5,700,000 (40th)

Scott carries a 1.42 ERA, 2.6 WAR through the first half of the season, easily establishing himself as the Marlins player to get the All-Star nod. Contractually, Scott is finishing his final year of arbitration in Miami, set to hit free agency this coming winter.

Matt Strahm (Phillies)

2024 Salary: $7,500,000 (25th)

One of the better middle relievers on baseball’s best team, Strahm holds a 1.59 ERA, including 45 strikeouts across 34 innings thus far. He signed an extension prior to the season that keeps him at a $7.5M pay rate through 2025, with a team option for another $7.5M in 2026. Strahm earns an extra $50,000 bonus for the All-Star nod.

Robert Suarez (Padres)

2024 Salary: $10,000,000 (14th)

The man asked to replace Josh Hader in San Diego has done so well, posting 22 saves (33 games finished) in 36 appearances. He’s guaranteed another $26M over the next three seasons, but does possess the ability to opt-out after the 2025 campaign.

Ryan Helsley (Cardinals)

2024 Salary: $3,800,000 (63rd)

Helsley leads the leagues in saves & games finished at the time of this posting, though his general numbers (171 ERA+, 2.76 FIP, 10.9 K/9) fall a little more in the average range currently speaking. The 30-year-old is arbitration eligible one more time this winter.

Jeff Hoffman (Phillies)

2024 Salary: $2,200,000 (90th)

Hoffman has done a little bit of everything for the Phillies thus far this season, and he’s done so to the tune of a 1.21 ERA, 0.88 WHIP across nearly 40 innings. The 31-year-old is set to hit the open market this winter.

Emmanuel Clase (Guardians)

2024 Salary: $2,500,000 (79th)

Clase has led the league in games finished and saves each of the past 2 full seasons - and he’s doing so again in 2024. Here’s the rest of his current story: 0.85 ERA, 472 ERA+, 0.63 WHIP across 42 innings. He’ll cost Cleveland $4.5M & $6M through 2026 respectively, with $10M club options available each of the two seasons thereafter.

Clay Holmes (Yankees)

2024 Salary: $6,000,000 (37th)

Holmes has been a rocksteady anchor to the back of the Yankees bullpen without possessing any numbers that really pop off of the page. The 31-year-old is slated for free agency this winter.

Mason Miller (Athletics)

2024 Salary: $740,000 (238th)

The player all 29 other teams hope the Athletics’ decided to trade this month has struck out 66 batters in just 37 innings of work (a 15.8 K/9 pace). With arbitration still a few years away, Oakland won’t be too threatened to move on unless the price blows them away.

Kirby Yates (Rangers)

2024 Salary: $5,750,000 (51st)

Yates showed sounds of rounding back into form late last year in Atlanta, and he’s turned the corner again for Texas in 2024. He’s carrying a sub-1 ERA, sub-1 WHIP and a 12.4 K/9 rate into July. The 37-year-old signed a 1 year deal with the Rangers and should hit the open market again this winter.

RESERVES

The 2024 All-Star reserves including their 2024 compensation and free agent eligibility season.

NL Reserves	2024 $/Free Agency	AL Reserves	2024 $/Free Agency
CJ Abrams (WSH, SS)	$752k/2029	Carlos Correa (MIN, SS)	$36.1M/2033
Pete Alonso (NYM, 1B)	$20.5M/2025	Rafael Devers (BOS, 3B)	$25M/2034
Luis Arraez (SD, 2B)	$10.6M/2026	Jarren Duran (BOS, OF)	$760k/2029
Mookie Betts (LAD/SS)	$22M/2033	David Fry (CLE, C)	$741k/TBD
Elly De La Cruz (CIN, SS)	$742k/TBD	Riley Greene (DET, OF)	$766k/2029
Freddie Freeman (LAD, 1B)	$20M/2028	Josh Naylor (CLE, 1B)	$6.5M/2026
Teoscar Hernandez (LAD, OF)	$15M/2025	Isaac Paredes (TB, 3B)	$3.4M/2028
Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B)	$12M/2028	Salvador Perez (KC, C)	$20M/2026
Jackson Merrill (SD, OF)	$740k/TBD	Marcus Semien (TEX, 2B)	$26M/2029
Marcell Ozuna (ATL, DH)	$16M/2026	Kyle Tucker (HOU, OF)	$12M/2026
Heliot Ramos (SF, OF)	$740k/TBD	Bobby Witt Jr. (KC, SS)	$9.7M/2038
Bryan Reynolds (PIT, OF)	$10M/2032
Will Smith (LAD, C)	$38.5M/2034

Valuing Top NHL Free Agents

Michael GinnittiJune 25, 2024

With the Stanley Cup finals now in the books, the focus now turns to full offseason mode in the NHL, beginning with the upcoming draft (June 28-June 29th), and free agency (July 1st). We’ve identified a few notable pending unrestricted free agents, including projected pricepoints for each.

RELATED LINKS

Sam Reinhart (C, Florida)

Reinhart posted a (full) breakdown campaign in his walk year with the Panthers: Always a good formula for financial success in sports. A strong postseason capped by a cup-winning goal in Game 7 puts him in conversation to be this year’s best available free agent.

The 28-year-old former #2 overall pick just completed a 3 year, $19.5 million contract in Florida and should have his eyes on Top 15 money this July, with Mitchell Marner’s 6 year, $65M contract ($10.9M per) very much in play.

Jake Guentzel (C, Carolina)

The 29-year-old was rumored to be the big trade chip this past deadline, but the Hurricanes held on instead. He finished the year at a 1.15 point per game clip, and boasts the type of playoff experience that every fringe contending team is looking to add.

Tyler Seguin’s $9.85M per year contract in Dallas should be a good foundation point, but if a team like Chicago wants to get into the mix, look for numbers past $10M per year to get in play.

Elias Lindholm (C, Vancouver)

The 29-year-old just completed a 6 year, $29M contract as a deadline move from Calgary to Vancouver. The overall production has sharply declined (as Calgary depleted the talent around him), so there are red flags attached to him this summer.

But a strong postseason run likely puts him back in the conversation for a Top 25 contract this July. Logan Couture’s $8M per year contract in San Jose seems a proper pricepoint.

Brady Skjei (D, Carolina)

A former Rangers 1st Rounder, Sjkei has spent the last 5 seasons playing out a 6 year, $31.5M contract. He approached the 50 point mark this past season, posting huge numbers across the board (including special teams). There’s a very real world where Skjei becomes the highest paid defender in this year’s class, with Devon Toews $7.25M per year value in Colorado very much in the conversation.

Jonathan Marchessault (F, Vegas)

The 33-year-old posted a career high 42 goals this past season, but the Golden Knights have shown in their young history that they are willing to be aggressive with turnover on an annual basis. Marchessault’s age and likely salary demands could push him into the open market next month.

He’s the perfect candidate to join a young team willing to overpay for surefire production & experience, which could result in a short-term, higher-AAV deal. Will 2 years, $15M take Vegas out of the running?

Also

Steven Stamkos (C, 34, Tampa Bay)
Brandon Montour (D, 30, Florida)
Brett Pesce (D, 29, Carolina)

Breaking Down Trevor Lawrence's Jaguars Extension

Michael GinnittiJune 14, 2024

Trevor Lawrence became the most recent young QB to lock in a blockbuster extension after three years of team control, agreeing to a 5 new year, $275M new money contract.

The deal keeps Lawrence under contract through the 2030 season and includes $142M fully guaranteed at signing. We’ll dive into all of the recently released details here.

Total Contract Value

With two years of team control still remaining ($5.6M fourth year of his rookie contract plus an exercised $25.6M option), Lawrence’s total value over the next seven seasons comes in at $306,341,000, which ranks 3rd among active contracts (Mahomes $483M, Burrow $310M).

The $275,000,000 in new money ties Burrow for 2nd place behind only Mahomes ($450M), while coming in $12.5M higher than Justin Herbert’s recent re-up in Los Angeles after his 3rd season.

Average Annual Value

One of the bigger headlines sure to be attached to this contract involves the $55M new money average salary, which ties Joe Burrow as the largest in NFL history (for now). But in greater context, the two AAVs remain very far apart.

For starters, Joe Burrow’s extension signed last September was done so in a year that involved a $224.8M league salary cap. Burrow’s $55M represents 24.4% of this figure. Trevor Lawrence’s $55M per year salary now factors into a $255.4M league salary cap - a 21.5% allocation.

Lawrence’s AAV % actually ranks 10th among active QB contracts, sliding in just ahead of Jared Goff (20.75%).

Furthermore, there are only two of seven seasons throughout Lawrence’s contract where he’s scheduled to earn at least $50M per year - 2029 & 2030.

Bonus Structure

Lawrence scored a $37.5M signing bonus with his new deal, a figure that ranks 8th among active QB contracts.

From there, Jacksonville built in FOUR consecutive $35M option bonuses through the 2028 season. This keeps the cap hits relatively manageable for the short-term, but will lead to accumulated dead cap at the back end of the contract.

The Jaguars will have the ability to spread out each $35M bonus over 5 years for cap purposes ($7M per year), or, decline the option and take on the full $35M cap figure all in one season.

Guarantee Structure

Lawrence’s $142M fully guaranteed at signing ranks 3rd all-time behind only Deshaun Watson’s $230M*, & Joe Burrow’s $146.5M. The figure consists of his signing bonus, 2024 salary, 2025 compensation, 2026 compensation, & $29M of his 2027 compensation.

By the middle of March 2026, the remaining $12M of 2027 salary will become fully guaranteed. This amount is guaranteed for injury at signing. In March of 2027, all $46M of Lawrence’s 2028 compensation will become fully guaranteed. That figure is guaranteed for injury at signing.

In total, the deal contains $200M guaranteed for practical purposes - all of it either fully guaranteed at signing, or vests to a full guarantee a year early. This $200M figure ranks 4th behind Watson ($230M), Burrow ($219M), & Herbert ($218M).

Cash Flow

The overall strength of this contract comes into question when dissecting it from a cash flow angle. But in the grand scheme of things, Lawrence has done fine in this regard.

Year 1: $39M (+$33.3M)
Year 2: $37.5M (+$11.9M)
Year 3: $37.5M
Year 4: $41.5M
Year 5: $46.5M
Year 6: $50.5M
Year 7: $53.8M

Lawrence will see $76.5M across the next two seasons, 9th most among active QB contracts & $34M less than Burrow secured. His 3-Year payout comes in at $114M, again 9th among QB deals, $32.5M less than Burrow & $19.7M less than Herbert.

Cap Flow

As you might imagine with a 5-bonus contract structure, Lawrence’s salary cap hits are extremely tenable across the early years of this deal. Things get awful fluffy at the back end…

2024: $15M (+$3.3M)
2025: $17M (-$8.6M)
2026: $24M
2027: $35M
2028: $47M
2029: $78.5M
2030: $74.8M

Jacksonville loses a little more than $3.3M of 2024 cap space per this extension, but they free up over $8.6M in 2025. With a league salary cap sure to blow past $300M in the next few seasons, Lawrence’s annual cap hits should be more than manageable until 2029, when the time to discuss a new deal (or a way out) will be in focus.

Final Thoughts

It’s clear as day that Trevor Lawrence’s negotiations targeted the Joe Burrow contract as its prototype. Many facets of the deal ($275M, $55M per year) match the Burrow contract exactly, while others (rightfully?) fall in just shy ($37.5M signing bonus, $142M guaranteed at signing, $200M practical).

Jacksonville’s ability to get this contract on the books this summer could have huge benefits down the road. Lawrence is entering his age 25 campaign in 2024, meaning he’ll have 5 full seasons before that “30 year old” red flag comes into focus. The Jaguars were able to spread out Lawrence’s $200M of guarantee across all 5 of these seasons, giving themselves more flexibility without having to worry about impacting Lawrence’s ability to max out a 3rd contract.

If all goes well, 29-year-old Lawrence should be walking into his next big contract after the 2028 season, with 2 years, $104.3M non-guaranteed remaining on this current deal.

If all goes wrong, it’s still going to be difficult to make this 7 year, $306.3M contract any smaller than a 5 year, $202M one. It’ll take a Russell Wilson type full salary buyout to walk away any sooner.

trevor lawrence

NFL Free Agency's Top, Value, & Best Available

Michael GinnittiJune 12, 2024

The 2024 NFL offseason is now three months old, prompting Spotrac to reflect on the top free agent signings at each position, a newly signed player who may hold significant value for the upcoming season, and a few notable players still available on the open market through the middle of June.

RELATED: NFL Free Agency

Top Free Agent Contracts

QB: Kirk Cousins (Falcons)

Signed a 4 year, $180,000,000 total value contract that included $90M guaranteed at signing, & $100M practically guaranteed through 2025. He’ll earn $62.5M cash in 2024, while carrying a $25M cap figure for the upcoming season.

RB: Josh Jacobs (Packers)

Signed a 4 year, $48,000,000 total value contract with Green Bay that included $12.5M fully guaranteed (his signing bonus). The Packers don’t offer full guarantees on base salaries to non-QB contracts, so Jacobs will be operating on a year-to-year basis from here out. He’ll earn $14.8M in 2024 a year after securing $11.8M from the Raiders.

WR: Calvin Ridley (Titans)

Signed a 4 year, $92,000,000 total value contract with Tennessee that included $46.9M fully guaranteed at signing, $51M practically guaranteed through 2025. He’ll earn $25M cash in 2024, more than double the $11.1M he secured in Jacksonville last season.

TE: Colby Parkinson (Rams)

Signed a 3 year, $22,500,000 contract with Los Angeles that includes $10.25M guaranteed at signing, $15.5M guaranteed through 2025. He’ll earn $7.75M in 2024, & $2.5M of his 2025 salary is guaranteed right now.

OT: Jonah Williams (Cardinals)

Signed a 2 year, $30,000,000 contract with Arizona that includes $19M fully guaranteed at signing, and $21.5M practically guaranteed through 2025. Williams secured a $17.1M paycheck this season after cashing in $12.6M from Cincinnati in 2023.

G: Robert Hunt (Panthers)

Signed a 5 year, $100,000,000 contract with Carolina that includes $44M guaranteed at signing, $63M practically guaranteed through 2026. Hunt secures $27.65M cash for the upcoming season, 3.5 times more than he earned across his first four seasons in Miami.It’s a 3 year, $63M deal for practical purposes.

C: Lloyd Cushenberry (Titans)

Signed a 4 year, $50,000,000 contract with Tennessee that includes $26M guaranteed at signing, $30M practically guaranteed through 2025. Cushenberry will see $20M cash in 2024, & 60% of his 2025 compensation is already fully locked in.

DT: Christian Wilkins (Raiders)

Signed a 4 year, $110,000,000 contract with Las Vegas that includes $57.7M guaranteed at signing, $82.75M practically guaranteed through 2026. The 28-year-old will triple his 2023 compensation up to $30M for the upcoming season, with another $29M already locked in for 2025.

EDGE: Jonathan Greenard (Vikings)

Signed a 4 year, $76,000,000 contract with Minnesota that includes $38M fully guaranteed through 2025. It’s a flat $19M per year cash flow for the 27-year-old, who should have no trouble seeing 3 years, $57M on this deal before reconsideration.

LB: Patrick Queen (Steelers)

Signed a 3 year, $41,000,000 contract with Pittsburgh that includes $13.84M fully guaranteed (his signing bonus). Outside of a few rare exceptions, the Steelers don’t guarantee base salaries, making Queen’s contract year-to-year from the onset. Early March roster bonuses in 2025 & 2026 will help to define his future each offseason.

CB: Chidobe Awuzie (Titans)

Signed a 3 year, $36,000,000 contract with Tennessee that includes $19M fully guaranteed at signing, $22.98M practically guaranteed through 2025. He figures to slot into the starting left cornerback role immediately for at least the next 2 years, $24M.

S: Xavier McKinney (Packers)

Signed a 4 year, $67,000,000 contract with Green Bay that includes $23M fully guaranteed, all by way of a signing bonus. He’ll earn $25M in 2024, while the remaining 3 years, $42M will be dealt with on a year-to-year basis - the Packer’s way.

EARLY VALUE BETS

QB: Russell Wilson (Steelers)

Obviously. Wilson joins Pittsburgh on a veteran minimum $1.21M for the upcoming season, and barring a camp battle loss to Justin Fields, should take the Week 1 snaps. At $67,222 cash per league week, Pittsburgh is operating with house money here.

RB: Derrick Henry (Ravens)

Henry joins Baltimore on a 2 year, $16,000,000 contract that sizes down to 1 year, $9M from a guarantee standpoint. The #3 rated RB according to PFF in 2023 has earned $15.5M, $10.5M, $14.5M, & $10.5M respectively over the past 4 seasons.

WR: Marquise Brown (Chiefs)

Brown becomes the latest veteran WR to join Patrick Mahomes’ offense on a 1 year “prove-it” contract, and could/should flourish with ample opportunities. Brown secured $6.5M guaranteed on his 1 year, $7M contract that comes with $4M of additional incentives based on playing time, touchdowns and yards.

TE: Jonnu Smith (Dolphins)

Smith caught 50 passes at an 11.6 yards per reception rate last season in Atlanta, and now slots in as the TE1 on a loaded Dolphins offense. His 2 year, $8.4M free agent contract comes with a 1 year, $4.3M practical structure - half of what he earned with the Falcons last season.

OT: Trenton Brown (Bengals)

Brown, the #11 overall rated tackle in 2023 according to PFF, leaves New England to join the right side of Joe Burrow’s O-Line this season. He signed a 1 year, $4.75M contract that includes $1M of per game active roster bonuses.

G: Kevin Zeitler (Lions)

After 3 seasons in Baltimore, including a $6.5M payout last year, Zeitler joins the Lions on a 1 year, $6M nearly fully guaranteed contract. The 34-year-old was a Top 15 rated guard according to PFF in 2023.

C: Bradley Bozeman (Chargers)

The advanced stats have never been kind to Bozeman, who was paid a $4M buyout by Carolina to re-enter free agency this March, but the Chargers are picking up a starting-caliber center at a league minimum $1.125M. The sudden retirement of injured Corey Linsley escalated LAC’s need at the position this spring.

DT: D.J. Reader (Lions)

The nearly 30-year-old played out his previous 4 year, $53M contract with Cincinnati in full before latching onto a stout Lions’ D-Line for 2024. It’s a 2 year, $22M total value contract, but only $7.425M of it is fully guaranteed at signing, and Detroit built in $1.05M of per game active roster bonuses for the upcoming season as added protection.

EDGE: A.J. Epenesa (Bills)

A slow start to the 2nd rounder’s career escalated to 14 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 2 interceptions over the past two seasons in Buffalo, who brought back the 25-year-old on a 2 year, $12M total value contract. The deal includes $6.5M guaranteed at signing, all in 2024, putting him on a 1 year, $7M contract until further notice.

LB: Tyrel Dodson (Seahawks)

The highest rated off-ball linebacker in 2023 according to PFF leaves Buffalo for Seattle on a 1 year $4.26M contract that includes just $1M guaranteed. It’s a prove-it deal for a role player through much of his rookie contract, but there’s plenty of room for starter-value here in 2024.

CB: Jeff Okudah (Texans)

The former #3 overall pick won’t ever reach his expected ceiling, but with 31 starts under his belt, and a viable chance to win a starting job in Houston, a long, serviceable career is very much in play. Okudah joins Houston on a 1 year, $4.75M contract that can get to $6M based on playing time.

S: Alohi Gilman (Chargers)

Gilman broke into the Chargers’ regular starting lineup in 2023 and hasn’t looked back since. LAC brought him back on a 2 year $10.125M contract that carries a 1 year, $5.6M value from a practical standpoint.

NOTABLE STILL AVAILABLE

While the 2024 NFL Free Agent Season is now three months old, more than a few notable names still remain available. VIEW THE FULL LIST

QB: Ryan Tannehill (35, TEN), Trevor Siemian (32, NYJ)

RB: Cam Akers (25, MIN), Damien Harris (27, BUF)

WR: Michael Thomas (31, NO), Hunter Renfrow (28, LV)

TE: Geoff Swaim (30, ARI)

OT: David Bakhtiari (32, GB), Donovan Smith (30, KC)

G: Phil Haynes (28, SEA), Halapoulivaati Vaitai (30, DET)

C: Connor Williams (27, MIA), Mason Cole (28, PIT)

DT: Bryan Mone (28, SEA), Hassan Ridgeway (29, HOU)

EDGE: Emmanuel Ogbah (30, MIA), Yannick Ngakoue (29, CHI)

LB: Shaquille Leonard (28, PHI), Zach Cunningham (29, PHI)

CB: Xavien Howard (30, MIA), Adoree' Jackson (28, NYG)

S: Justin Simmons (30, DEN), Eddie Jackson (30, CHI)

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