We’re just over a week out from the NBA trade deadline on February 6. Like the past couple of seasons, NBA teams are falling into defined tiers this year. However, those tiers are a little different from the traditional ones of title contender, playoff team and tanking team.

What the Play-In Tournament has done is create a handful of different races. There are a handful of teams in each conference that are still competing for the top seed. But from there, we have a couple of other races to watch. Teams compete for homecourt advantage, but are also competing to simply be in the top-six in their conference to snag one of the assured playoff spots.

After the contenders, several teams are fighting for positioning, or even just spots, in the Play-In Tournament in each conference. (This season, this is truer of the Western Conference than the Eastern Conference.) And then, of course, you have teams that are prioritizing ping-pong balls, if we put it kindly.

That makes each team’s approach to the trade deadline endlessly more fascinating. Today, we’ll cover where each team seems to stand as far as being a buyer or seller, or either or neither, at the deadline. We’ll also give some thoughts on where we think each team should be at.

Atlanta Hawks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Let’s call the Hawks cautious buyers. Atlanta doesn’t have a lot of room under the tax to add salary. They aren’t good enough to go into the tax yet, so that limits what they can do. They’re looking for upgrades, but nothing major seems on the horizon.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

Atlanta shouldn’t be making any all-in moves, nor should they be trading any young core players. But if someone wants to make a run at Clint Capela or Larry Nance Jr., the Hawks should listen. This could be a way to continue rebalancing the cap sheet, while adding talent to keep Atlanta in the playoff race.

Boston Celtics

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Boston doesn’t have the tradable salary to do anything all that meaningful at the deadline. Their top-nine playoff guys are also fairly set too. They’re always looking around, but nothing seems imminent here.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

Despite a blah last month or so, the Celtics are still the champs. Everything is set up to make another title run. There are no major needs. They’ll probably move Jaden Springer’s expiring salary to kick the can down the road with another guy who has a year or left, but don’t expect much more. Mostly, Boston will just keep things moving along.

Brooklyn Nets

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Nets have already started this process, but there’s more to come. Cam Johnson, Nic Claxton, D’Angelo Russell, Bojan Bogdanovic and…well…just about anyone can be had for the right price.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Brooklyn hasn’t landed on their next franchise guy yet. They’ve got a few interesting young guys, but none of them screams out as the guy who will lead several years of playoff runs. That’ll come through the draft. Maximize assets over the next few years is the way forward for the Nets.

Charlotte Hornets

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

Charlotte already moved Nick Richards, and he was their best trade asset. They might be able to get something for Cody Martin, as more and more teams are looking for perimeter help. But the Hornets are looking at smaller deals now.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Could Jeff Peterson jump in and help as a facilitator again? It’s possible. If they Hornets can snag some more additional assets to help move some money around, they’ll probably do it. The reality is that there just isn’t a lot of tradable salary left here. The bigger deals belong to the guys who Charlotte is building around. This should be a quiet deadline.

Chicago Bulls

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Bulls are sellers. Wait…really? It appears so. They are still open to moving Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic in the right deal. Patrick Williams is still very available. Basically, anyone but Matas Buzelis, and possibly Josh Giddey, shouldn’t be investing in long-term real estate in Chicago.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Bulls should be selling. No doubt about it. They might not get monster returns for LaVine or Vucevic, but if they could take on some undesirable money to plus-up the return packages, Chicago should be open to that. It’s been years since they’ve leaned fully into rebuilding, but it’s beyond time to pull the plug on this iteration. Mercifully, it seems that process is finally beginning.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

Cleveland is poking around and looking for help. They aren’t touching the core, but the guys who orbit around them can be had in return for upgrades. The Cavaliers are looking for perimeter help and wouldn’t mind adding a versatile backup big too.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Cavs have the movable salary to get something done. Ideally, they’d make a move or two to add talent, while also getting out of the tax. Cleveland projects to be very expensive for years to come. No reason to start that clock any earlier than necessary.

Detroit Pistons

Approach at the deadline: Either

This Pistons are operating with an air of mystery right now. Their very good play has them looking for some upgrades. Their $14 million in cap space has them open to eating some salary. If there’s a way to do both, Tajan Langdon will jump on it.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Detroit hasn’t won a single playoff game (game, not series) since 2008. Young Pistons fans could complete their entire run of K-12 schooling without seeing a single playoff win. Langdon has the ability to add help and should be active. It doesn’t have to be a crazy, sell-the-farm kind of deal. But this group has earned an upgrade or two to aid in the postseason push.

Indiana Pacers

Approach at the deadline: Neither

Indiana is in a good place. They don’t really need a whole lot, beyond staying healthy. The Pacers have stayed focused on the players they have. Myles Turner rumors abound (wouldn’t be a deadline without them!), but that seems to be more speculation that reality at this point.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Neither

If there’s a deal that comes up that can allow Indiana to get off a long-term salary for a fringe rotation guy (they don’t have any bad salary), they should be on it. The Pacers project to hit next summer without much room under the luxury tax. If they are going to re-sign Myles Turner, they need to clear some room eventually, as they aren’t likely to play the tax. Now, if they aren’t going to re-sign Turner, then they should probably think about moving him by the deadline. But that’s not the direction this will probably take.

Miami Heat

Approach at the deadline: Either

The Heat are trying to find Jimmy Butler trade that brings back win-now talent, but no long-term salary. That’s a tricky needle to thread, but maybe they can pull it off. Until Butler’s situation is settled, and possibly after, don’t expect much else from Miami.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Either

Miami is progressing along as they should be. There’s no reason to rush a Butler trade and take back a less-than-desirable return. See that through, play out the rest of the season, then pick up the pieces this summer for the long-term.

Milwaukee Bucks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Bucks are always active and there’s nothing different happening at this deadline. Milwaukee is looking for more scoring help, and they’ve got some tradable salary to make it happen. They’ll have to dance around the second apron, but it’s doable with a salary-shedding more or two.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Milwaukee is doing the right thing. They should be trying to maximize the time they have with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard playing at superstar levels. That might mean saying goodbye to some key franchise guys, but reunions down the line are made for showing love for the past. If you want to compete for another title, moves have to be made.

New York Knicks

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

New York is looking for some help. They’d like a more reliable backup for Karl-Anthony Towns. They’d also like a bigger perimeter defender too. The issue is that their draft capital is just about spent, and the Knicks only sizable matching salary belongs to oft-injured Mitchell Robinson.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

I’m calling the Knicks bargain shoppers. They don’t have much wiggle room under the second apron. That means a small move, or moving Robinson. I wouldn’t rule out either one, but not sure whatever they do is going to get folks all that fired up in New York.

Orlando Magic

Approach at the deadline: Buyers

The Magic are best termed as cautious buyers…again. Forever and always, it seems. Orlando can use help. They desperately need more shooting. But whatever vortex players pass through when they land in the Magic Kingdom seems to sap even good shooters of that particular ability. Still, the Magic are looking to see what they can do. Just don’t expect to hear a lot in advance. Jeff Weltman and crew keep things pretty quiet.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Buyers

Orlando should be looking to buy. There’s no question about it. The team is mostly healthy again and they still need shooting. The target for the Magic needs to be a shooter who fits now and over the next few years. They’ve got the tradable salary and draft picks to make it happen. A deal now could be the difference between a first round win and going home after one series.

Philadelphia 76ers

Approach at the deadline: Either

This is a mess. It’s hard to predict what the Sixers will do, because they don’t even really seem to know what their season will hold. News came out last week that ownership would like to take a few weeks to evaluate the team, but that’s after the deadline. A top-six protected pick doesn’t actually seem to be a real factor. So, look for maybe a move or two to bolster the rotation until the stars can get on the court more often.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

This doesn’t mean Philadelphia needs to move any of the three stars. Those guys can stay, unless someone gets really, really silly with an offer for Paul George (not happening). But moving role players should be on the table. Even if the 76ers aren’t going to start tanking, they can still get some future assets to help build these team back up again this coming offseason.

Toronto Raptors

Approach at the deadline: Sellers

The Raptors are still rebuilding and figuring things out. Bruce Brown and Kelly Olynyk are available. Chris Boucher might be available. Most of the young players are off the table, as those are the guys Toronto is building around.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers

Toronto is staying on the path they set ahead of last trade deadline. Their solid play as of late is fun, and bodes well for the future, but this team is playing for a high draft pick and a potential star to add to their young core. They should listen more on Jakob Poeltl than it seems like they will, but they don’t have to give him away either.

Washington Wizards

Approach at the deadline: Sellers. The worst team in the league is shopping their veterans. This is a full-scale teardown happening exactly as planned. Kyle Kuzma, Malcolm Brogdon, Jonas Valanciunas and Jordan Poole can all be had for a decent return package. If you throw in better assets, Washington will eat some bad long-term salary too.

Ideal approach at the deadline: Sellers. Everything the Wizards are doing is super ugly, and they are 100% correct in the path they’ve chosen. The kids are playing plenty and the team is zooming towards top lottery position. If they can get a nice return for any of the vets, they should do so. Keep an eye on Richaun Holmes too. His contract was designed to be traded, and something might happen there to help another team move some money around.

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The 2025 NBA trade deadline is about two weeks away.  The early trade season has been pretty active this year. We haven’t had any true blockbusters yet, but we’re already at six trades. That’s a lot compared to previous years.

Two weeks or so out from deadline day is when things usually start to pick up. Teams that insisted on multiple first-round picks for their players come down to a single first-round pick, while their partners in trades come up from offering a couple of second-rounders to offering that single first-rounder. As desperation increases, so does reasonability in trade talks.

Here’s what each of the 30 NBA teams are working with to trade as we sit a month from the deadline.

Atlanta Hawks

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.3 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $25.3 million (Dejounte Murray), $10.6 million (remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Hawks owe two future firsts (2025 and 2027) to the Spurs, as well as a swap in 2026. Atlanta is owed an unprotected 2025 first-round pick from the Los Angeles Lakers. The Hawks also have a top-12 protected pick 2025 pick from Sacramento, which could come this year or next. Atlanta has their first-round picks from 2028 through 2031.

Hawks have at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Cody Zeller. It would have been juicy to pick Clint Capela here, but Atlanta seems likely to operate fairly conservatively at this deadline. That means Zeller is the choice, who was acquired this past offseason to make salary-matching work in the Dejounte Murray trade. Trade or waiver, Zeller probably won’t be on the Hawks much past the deadline.

Boston Celtics

Cap/Tax Picture: $7.6 million over the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Boston owes a 2029 first to Portland. They also have a top-1 protected swap with the Spurs in 2028.

The Celtics have at least six tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jaden Springer. Look for Boston to move Jaden Springer in a similar move to the one they made to acquire him last year. They’ll trade him for team-controlled salary that extends into 2025-26.

Brooklyn Nets

Cap/Tax Picture: $677,263 under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $23.3 million (Mikal Bridges), $3.4 million (Royce O’Neale), $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Nets draft pick situation is a bit confusing. They have their own picks back in 2025 and 2026. That’s the key thing to know. Brooklyn is highly unlikely to trade any of the first-round picks they own, as they are rebuilding.

The Nets have at least 16 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Cam Johnson. We’re picking Johnson here, because that would be the biggest impact move. But every player on the Nets roster is available in the right deal. They haven’t landed on their next franchise guy yet.

Charlotte Hornets

Cap/Tax Picture: $7.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.5 million (Grant Williams – Disabled Player Exception: Can only be used to acquire an expiring contract)

Draft Pick Situation: Hornets owe a protected 2025 first-rounder to the Spurs (last year being lottery-protected before coming two second-round picks), but own all the rest of their own first-round picks. Charlotte has extra picks, with protections, coming from Dallas and Miami too.

The Hornets have at least 13 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Seth Curry. Because Nick Richards was recently traded, there aren’t many veterans left that the Hornets should be looking to move. If a team wants to add to the second-round pick stash to add some shooting in the form of Curry, Charlotte will happily make that move.

Chicago Bulls

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $17.5 million (DeMar DeRozan)

Draft Pick Situation: Bulls owe a protected first-round pick to San Antonio in the coming years. Chicago doesn’t have a fully clear first-rounder until 2028. From there, the Bulls have all of their own first-round picks through 2031. Chicago has a lottery-protected first owed to them from the Trail Blazers, with those same protections through 2028.

The Bulls have three tradable second-round pick, as others all have conditions attached.

Most Likely to be Traded: Who knows? The Bulls have been shopping Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic for a while now without making a deal. Patrick Williams is on the block. Teams have shown interest in Lonzo Ball. There are a number of players on veteran minimum deals that could be moved. Without being overly sarcastic: We’re all still waiting on Chicago to do something, and that wait has lasted a couple or already.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.9M under the first apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Cleveland owes three future first-round picks to the Jazz, as well as two years of swap rights to Utah. The first tradable first-round pick the Cavs have is in 2031.

The Cavs have eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. There isn’t a great choice here. Cleveland will probably make a move to dodge the tax (as an expensive team in the coming years, not starting the repeater clock is important for the Cavs), but it might come as part of a bigger move. Caris LeVert is on a $16.6 million expiring contract, but he’s the Cavs third ballhandler most nights. The Cavaliers will do something, but it’s hard to peg what that will be.

Dallas Mavericks

Cap/Tax Picture: $526,220 under the first apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $16.2 million (Tim Hardaway Jr.), $4.0 million (Seth Curry)

Draft Pick Situation: Dallas owes a top-two protected 2027 first-round pick to the Charlotte Hornets. The Mavericks also owe a 2029 first-rounder to the Nets or Rockets, and first-round swaps in 2027 (Thunder) and 2030 (Spurs). That leaves the Mavs pick in 2025 as their only free and clear tradable first-round pick.

Dallas has one tradable second-round pick.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dante Exum. The Mavs don’t have any large expiring contracts They also aren’t a small salary-dump within range of getting out of the tax. Expect Dallas to be active, as Nico Harrison’s history shows he will be, but there’s no clear standout move here.

Denver Nuggets

Cap/Tax Picture: $5.2 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $5.3 million (Reggie Jackson)

Draft Pick Situation: Denver owes future first-round picks to Orlando and Oklahoma City. They won’t be able to realistically trade a first-round pick at this deadline.

The Nuggets don’t have any tradable second-round picks. All of their second-round picks have conditions attached, or were already traded outright.

Most Likely to be Traded: Zeke Nnaji. You could also put Dario Saric here, but a trade of Nnaji would get the Nuggets off $3.7 million more in salary, plus addition salary too. Whether that move is to create clearance under the apron to free up trade flexibility, or a straight salary dump to lessen the tax bill in the real question.

Detroit Pistons

Cap/Tax Picture: $14.0 million under the cap

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $7.9 million (Room Exception – would only be used after using cap space)

Draft Pick Situation: Detroit owes a top-13 protected first-round pick to Minnesota. That pick may actually convey, given the team’s surprising postseason push. All of the Detroit’s other first-round picks are free and clear from 2028 to 2031.

The Pistons have at least 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Tim Hardaway Jr. The real answer here is the Pistons $14 million in cap space. They’re going to use most, if not all, of that before the deadline. If they go for a bigger move, Hardaway’s expiring $16.2 million salary seems likely to be added to that cap space to make it happen.

Golden State Warriors

Cap/Tax Picture: $330,409 under the first apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Golden State owes Washington a top-20 protected first-round pick in 2030. The Warriors own all of their other first-round picks.

The Warriors have two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Dennis Schroder. The Warriors don’t seem inclined to make the kind of big move that would necessitate putting Jonathan Kuminga or Brandin Podziemski in a deal, along with Andrew Wiggins for salary-matching purposes. Gary Payton II and Kevon Looney have meant too much to just be dumped as expiring salary. So, that leaves Dennis Schroder, who hasn’t been exactly the fit that Golden State hoped for.

Houston Rockets

Cap/Tax Picture: $10.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Houston’s first-round pick situation is somewhat messy. They have a couple of picks/swaps that are controlled by Oklahoma City. On the incoming side, the Rockets own their own firsts (or favorable swap rights) from 2028 through 2031. And they have an extra couple of picks coming their way from the Suns or Mavericks.

The Rockets have at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Steven Adams, Jeff Green, Jock Landale or Jae’Sean Tate. All four veteran frontcourt players are on expiring (or non-guaranteed) contracts. That makes all of them trade chips if Houston looks for a small rotation upgrade up front. The Rockets continue to insist that a trade for a superstar isn’t in the cards at this deadline.

Indiana Pacers

Cap/Tax Picture: $126,514 under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Pacers owe the Raptors a top-four protected pick in 2026 or 2027. Beyond that, they own all of their own first-round picks.

Indiana has at least eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: James Johnson or James Wiseman. Indiana seems pretty well set with their roster. They’d probably like some additional clearance under the luxury tax, but could just ride things out as is and barely dodge the tax line. If they want the clearance, look for Johnson or Wiseman to be the sacrifice.

LA Clippers

Cap/Tax Picture: $4.8 under the first apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.3 million (remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Clippers still owe a 2026 first-round pick to the Thunder (or 76ers) and then a 2028 first-round pick outright to the 76ers. LA also owes swap rights to OKC in 2025 and 2027 and top-three protected 2029 swap right to the Philadelphia. The Clippers only outright tradable first-round pick comes in 2031.

LA has two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: P.J. Tucker. The Clippers haven’t used Tucker as a rotation player since he came over in the James Harden trade. If they make a deal to further fortify their rotation, he’s likely to be involved. Otherwise, Tucker will be waived following the trade deadline to open a roster spot.

Los Angeles Lakers

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.5 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Los Angeles owes Atlanta their 2025 first-round pick. They also owe a top-four protected 2027 first-round pick to Utah. Beyond that, the Lakers own all of their own first-round picks.

The Lakers have two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Rui Hachimura. This one is about salary size. If the Lakers are making another significant move, it’s likely that Hachimura’s $17 million salary will be involved.

Memphis Grizzlies

Cap/Tax Picture: $1.8 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.6 million (Steven Adams), $6.1 million (Ziaire Williams), $8.6 million (remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Grizzlies have all of their own first-round picks, including favorable swap rights on two picks in 2026 and 2030.

Memphis has five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Luke Kennard or John Konchar. Same as it was last year. Either Kennard or Konchar (or both!) will likely be involved if the Grizzlies make a move to consolidate their rotation some.

Miami Heat

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.0 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.5 million (Kyle Lowry)

Draft Pick Situation: The Heat’s first-round draft pick situation is fascinating. Miami owes a lottery-protected pick to Oklahoma City in 2025. That pick becomes unprotected in 2026 if it doesn’t convey this year. That would wipe out the lottery-protected pick that Miami owes Charlotte in 2027. That would then make that pick unprotected in 2028. The Heat own their 2029 through 2031 first-round picks with no conditions attached.

Miami has three tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jimmy Butler. Who else were we going to pick? 

Milwaukee Bucks

Cap/Tax Picture: $6.5 million over the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Bucks don’t own any of their own first-round picks outright until 2031. Every other pick is either owed to another team or tied up in least-favorable swap rights.

Milwaukee has one tradable second-round pick.

Most Likely to be Traded: Pat Connaughton. If the Bucks want to get under the second apron, it’s very likely Connaughton will be in the deal. That will come either with Connaughton by himself to free Milwaukee of the burdensome second-apron restriction, or as part of a bigger deal where the Bucks finish under the second apron.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Cap/Tax Picture: $16.1 million over the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Minnesota owes Utah three future first-round picks (and one swap), only one of which is lightly protected. The Wolves also owe a top-1 protected swap to the Spurs in 2030 and their pick outright to San Antonio in 2031. That all means they can’t trade a first-round pick directly.

The Timberwolves have at least four tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. The Wolves don’t have a lot of tradable salary that isn’t attached to rotation players. There’s also not a deal worth doing that will really lessen their tax burden enough.

New Orleans Pelicans

Cap/Tax Picture: $2.1 million over the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $9.9 million (Jonas Valanciunas), $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Pelicans own all of their own first-round picks. They also have favorable swap rights in both 2026 and 2027.

New Orleans has two tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Javonte Green or Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Both players are on veteran minimum deals, which makes them easy to trade to just about anywhere. If the Pelicans feel Dejounte Murray will miss out on currently likely bonuses, then they are one small move from dodging the luxury tax. Given they’ve never paid it, a trade to avoid the tax is as good of a bet to happen as any in the NBA.

New York Knicks

Cap/Tax Picture: $535,302 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: Unlike a year ago, the Knicks have traded most of their first-round draft capital now. They have one extra first-round pick potentially coming from the Wizards in 2026 (it won’t convey this year). Besides that, New York can offer 2026 and 2030 first-round swap rights in deals.

The Knicks have eight tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Mitchell Robinson or Jericho Sims. If the Knicks make a move for a rotation upgrade, it will definitely include Robinson getting moved. If it's a minor move for depth, Sims may be the guy on the move.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Cap/Tax Picture: $10.4 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $7.9 million (Room Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: Oklahoma City has between 10 and 14 first-round picks, pending protected picks. They have all of their own, including favorable swap rights in several years.

The Thunder have at least 16 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. The Thunder don’t seem overly like to make a trade. Could they firm up a rotation spot here or there? Sure. But they don’t need to. And they like all the players they have. Oklahoma City will let this playoff run tell them what they really need. If a big move is coming, it’ll come this offseason.

Orlando Magic

Cap/Tax Picture: $20.5 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $7.9 million (Room Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: The Magic have an extra first-round pick coming from the Nuggets in 2025 (unless Denver implodes), in addition to all of their own first-round picks.

Orlando has 12 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Cole Anthony, Gary Harris or Moe Wagner. If the Magic make a deal, and there’s no guarantee they will, at least one of these guys will be involved. Anthony has the biggest salary, while Harris and Wagner have team options for 2025-26, which makes them essentially expiring contracts. Orlando could make a major impact move, but that hasn’t been the M.O. of this front office with in-season moves.

Philadelphia 76ers

Cap/Tax Picture: $6.1 million under the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Sixers owe a protected first-round pick to the Thunder in 2025, 2026 or 2027. Once that is settled, the 76ers owe a protected first-round pick to the Nets in 2027 or 2028. Philadelphia has their own picks in 2029 (or favorable swap rights with the Clippers) through 2031, as well as an additional pick from the Clippers in 2028.

The Sixers have at least five tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Not Joel Embiid, Paul George, Tyrese Maxey or Jared McCain. Everyone else could be moved by Philadelphia. Things have no gone the way the Sixers hoped for. That means all of their veterans could be on the move, as the team sets things up for the future. Keep an eye on K.J. Martin, whose contract was specifically set up to be traded.

Phoenix Suns

Cap/Tax Picture: $28.2 million over the second apron

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $3.3 million (Josh Okogie)

Draft Pick Situation: Phoenix’s draft pick situation is unique and a mess. The recent trade with the Utah Jazz gave the Suns some tradable picks. Without getting too deep into the details, Phoenix has three tradable first-round picks between 2025 and 2030, but all have least-favorable conditions attached.

The Suns have one tradable second-round pick.

Most Likely to be Traded: Jusuf Nurkic. Sure, Bradley Beal will be moved if a Jimmy Butler deal happens, but Beal’s no-trade clause complicates things. Nurkic has no such restriction, and he’s probably getting moved before the deadline if Phoenix can find a taker.

Portland Trail Blazers

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.7 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.9 million (Malcolm Brogdon), $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Portland owes a lottery-protected pick to Chicago. Those protections carry out through 2028. The Blazers own their own first-round picks in 2029 through 2031, including favorable swap rights in 2029 and 2030, plus an extra first-round pick in 2029 from Boston or Milwaukee.

Portland has at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Robert Williams III. This one is about the Trail Blazers trading movable vets. Williams has been more or less healthy lately and he’s on an easily tradable contract. Keep an eye on Matisse Thybulle for the same contract reason, if teams think he can get healthy. Trades for Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton may have to wait until the offseason, because they are carrying such large salary numbers.

Sacramento Kings

Cap/Tax Picture: $3.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $6.3 million (Sasha Vezenkov), $5.9 million (Chris Duarte), $4.7 million (Jalen McDaniels), $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Kings owe a protected first-round pick to the Hawks in 2025 (top-12 protected) or 2026 (top-10 protected), but own the remainder of their own first-rounders. The Spurs can swap for the Kings pick in 2031.

Sacramento has one tradable second-round pick.

Most Likely to be Traded: Kevin Huerter or Trey Lyles. If the Kings make an impact move, they’ll move either Huerter or Lyles, or package them together. That combo seems to be what Sacramento is offering around the league in search of rotation upgrades up front or on the wing.

San Antonio Spurs

Cap/Tax Picture: $21.1 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: None

Draft Pick Situation: The Spurs own all of their own first-round picks. They also have most-favorable swap rights in several years too. In addition, San Antonio has extra first-round picks coming from Atlanta (2025 and 2027), Chicago (in 2025, 2026 or 2027) and Minnesota (2031).

The Spurs have at least 19 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: No one. San Antonio doesn’t have any tax issues. They also don’t seem likely to make a major in-season move. They’ll save their big stuff for the summer.

Toronto Raptors

Cap/Tax Picture: $10.0 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.8 million (Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: Toronto owns all of their own first-rounders, plus a top-4 protected pick coming from Indiana in either 2026 or 2027.

The Raptors have at least seven tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Bruce Brown or Chris Boucher. Brown and Boucher are both on expiring contracts. Brown seems unlikely to be back in Toronto, so he’ll probably be moved by the deadline. Boucher could help a lot of teams looking for frontcourt depth, but there’s been talks of an extension for him with the Raptors too.

Utah Jazz

Cap/Tax Picture: $27.2 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $7.9 million (Room Exception)

Draft Pick Situation: Utah still has a bushel of picks coming their way, even after their 3-picks-for-1-pick trade with the Suns. The Jazz owe a protected first-round pick to the Thunder, but it’s unclear if that pick will ever convey. They own all of their own first-round picks beyond that, plus an additional five first-rounders coming from the Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Lakers and Suns.

Utah has at least three tradable second-round picks. 

Most Likely to be Traded: John Collins or Jordan Clarkson. The Jazz have been open to moving both of these veterans for months now. Clarkson makes less, but Collins is the better player. A trade for either isn’t guaranteed before the deadline, but it wouldn’t be a surprise either.

Washington Wizards

Cap/Tax Picture: $11.9 million under the tax

Notable Traded Player Exceptions: $12.4 million (Daniel Gafford), $6.4 million (remaining Non-Taxpayer MLE)

Draft Pick Situation: The Wizards owe a protected first-round pick to the Knicks, but own all of their other first-rounders. They also have the ability to swap several years of picks with the Suns, plus they own a top-20 protected Warriors pick in 2030. In addition, the Wizards added a second most-favorable pick from the Celtics, Bucks or Trail Blazers in 2029 over the summer.

Washington as has least 16 tradable second-round picks.

Most Likely to be Traded: Any veteran Wizard. No, not Gandalf or Dumbledore. But Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole. Malcolm Brogdon or Jonas Valanciunas can all be had for the right offers. Washington, by their own admission, is still in the deconstruction phase with this roster. Also, keep an eye on Richaun Holmes in a move to swap some salary around. Holmes’ extension was specifically designed to make his contract tradable.

Before the chaos of the NFL offseason kicks into gear, we’ll dive into five players who appear poised to lock in a contract extension in the coming weeks and months, providing outcome predictions for each.

QB Brock Purdy (SF, 25)

Remaining Contract: 1 year, $5M

Purdy’s 2025 salary will escalate from $1M up to around $5M thanks to a Proven Performance Bonus (figure to be determined once the 2025 league salary cap is set). It’s a small consolation prize for a player who has been providing his team with as much financial value as possible for the better part of 3 seasons.

Has Purdy done enough to demand a near top of the market contract? Does his value outside of the 49ers create leverage? Will the Niners play hardball here? Common sense says the two sides move quickly on this deal, coming in at a healthy, but not crushing, bottom line number.

Let’s keep this simple and cap adjust the Daniel Jones contract from 2023:

Prediction: 4 years, $194M, $100M guaranteed

ED Micah Parsons (DAL, 25)

Remaining Contract: 1 year, $24M

Parsons produced 12 sacks, 43 tackles, and 2 forced fumbles in just 13 games for the Cowboys last season and will enter a contract year in 2025 (fully guaranteed $24M 5th-year option salary). He’s been one of the games most productive edge defenders since stepping onto the field back in 2021, and should be of Dallas’ top priority signings this offseason.

The top numbers for edge defenders currently stand at: $34M APY, $122.5M GTD, though it should be noted (since the Cowboys tend to wait until the last minute with these things) that T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, Max Crosby, and Zach Allen are all contract extension candidates this offseason as well, which should continue to push this market even further.

Prediction: 4 years, $150M ($115M guaranteed)

WR Ja’Marr Chase (CIN, 24)

Remaining Contract: 1 year, $21.8M

127 catches, 1,708 yards, 17 touchdowns. There are certainly worse ways to launch yourself into a contract negotiation offseason, and Justin Jefferson’s $35M APY, $110M guaranteed could very much be in danger here. While drops remain a bit of a concern (9 in 2024), the former #5 overall pick has done more than enough to warrant a market resetting contract this spring.

Prediction: 4 years, $145M ($100M guaranteed)

CB Derek Stingley Jr. (HOU, 23)

Remaining Contract: 1 year, $5.4M + 2026 option

The #3 overall pick in 2022 now has 11 interceptions in 37 games and enters the offseason as PFF’s 4th highest rated cornerback. Houston will (of course) exercise his 5th year option before the May 2nd deadline, then should have its sights on locking in Stingley to a deal in the same ballpark as Patrick Surtain’s extension in Denver (4 years, $96M, $77.5M guaranteed).

Prediction: 4 years, $105M ($83M guaranteed)

S Kyle Hamilton (BLT, 23)

Remaining Contract: 1 year, $2.9M + 2026 option

Hamilton’s versatility fills up the box score on a weekly basis (107 tackles, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and a pick in 2024), and the #2 rated safety in football according to PFF is now extension-eligible for the first time at just 23 years old.

The safety market got a nice bump last offseason with Antoine Winfield Jr.’s extension in Tampa Bay. Hamilton should all but destroy his numbers ($21M APY, 53.5% guaranteed). Assuming the Ravens exercise Hamilton’s 5th-year option (estimated $18.3M) before extending him, he’ll be carrying around $21M with him into the negotiation.

Prediction: 3 years, $75M ($58M guaranteed)

The Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz linked up on a swap of draft picks. For Utah, this was a quality over quantity trade. For Phoenix, this has the Suns set up to do something (or multiple somethings) bigger.

Here are the particulars:

Phoenix Suns acquire: least favorable 2025 Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Jazz first-round pick; least favorable 2027 Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Jazz first-round pick; least favorable 2029 Cavaliers, Timberwolves, Jazz first-round pick

Utah Jazz acquire: 2031 Suns first-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Phoenix Suns

Incoming salary: None

Outgoing salary: None

The Suns have been incredibly creative in using their limited draft assets in the last couple of years. First, they used swap rights with several first-round picks to add some additional second-round picks. Now, the Suns turned their one remaining tradable first-round pick into three tradable first-round picks. That’s pretty good work, even if none of the resulting picks Phoenix holds has tremendous value.

Or do they? Probably not as any single individual asset. As a collective, the value is huge to Phoenix.

Before making this deal, the Suns were limited to trading only their 2031 first-round pick in deals. Because of The Stepien Rule, and following trading several picks for Kevin Durant, Phoenix was prohibited from including any additional firsts in trades.

Now, the Suns have unlocked the ability to trade three picks in a six-year window between the 2025 NBA Draft and the 2030 NBA Draft. There are still some challenges with that, however.

In 2026, 2028 and 2030, the Suns have already swapped their first-round picks in previous deals. The conditions are incredibly complicated, but here’s what you need to know: Depending on the year, Phoenix is set to have the worst pick out of a group that includes themselves, the Memphis Grizzlies, Orlando Magic, New York Knicks, Brooklyn Nets, Philadelphia 76ers and Washington Wizards.

Making it easier: In the even years, Phoenix will have a first-round pick that should land in the 20s.

With these new picks they’ve acquired, the Suns have added a whole new set of least-favorable conditions to their ledger. In the odd years from 2025 through 2029, Phoenix will get the worst pick of the Cavaliers, Timberwolves and Jazz. There are some protections on a couple of those picks too, but they aren’t likely to matter in the Suns case.

So, to make it really, really simple: The Suns traded their 2031 first-round pick for the Cavaliers 2025 first-round pick (good luck to Minnesota in trying to catch Cleveland this season!), while picking up a couple of additional first-rounders that should land in the 20s in 2027 and 2029.

Got all that? Good! Now, let’s go through what really matters.

The picks the Suns acquired are only kind of, sort of about where they might land. The key thing Phoenix acquired here is the ability to trade first-round picks at all between 2025 and 2030. That’s what this deal was really about.

Once again: James Jones was limited to offering his 2031 first-round pick in deals prior to this trade. Given the contracts the Suns are reportedly looking to move, that wasn’t going to cut it. So, Jones went out and got the ability to offer additional first-round picks to entice teams to take on some salary. That’s huge for opening up avenues for Phoenix over the next two weeks until the trade deadline.

Now, if the Suns jump into a Jimmy Butler trade and need to move Bradley Beal, Jones can offer a couple of first-round picks to help grease the wheels for a team to take on the $160 million Beal counts for on the books through 2026-27. Crucially, Phoenix might also be able to keep an additional first-round pick in reserve to convince a team to eat the $19 million owed to Jusuf Nurkic for next season.

And, of course, Jones could flip those picks in smaller deals to add depth, even if we all know the Suns are thinking bigger.

So, instead of having one pick to offer in 2031, Phoenix can now present a menu of choices to potential trade partners. You want to jump in the quagmire of “least favorable” involving a bunch of teams in the Grizzlies, Magic, Sixers, Knicks, Nets, Wizards group? Take your pick! You want to keep it simple and snag the worst pick of Cavs, Wolves and Jazz in a couple of different seasons? Absolutely!

As long as the Suns still have a first-round pick every other year, encumbered by complicated swap rights as it may be, they’re clear of violating The Stepien Rule. That’s any pick. A Phoenix pick or the worst one of any number of teams, Jones is good.

That’s the flexibility the Suns created here. And it’s probably just enough to get things moving with trading for Jimmy Butler and possibly another move alongside that one.

Now, convincing Bradley Beal to approve a trade…Well, that’s another story for another day.

Utah Jazz

Incoming salary: None

Outgoing salary: None

Before this deal, the Jazz were sitting on a bundle of first-round picks that could have totaled 14 over the next seven drafts. That sounds great, until you factor in that Utah already has 10 players on long-term contracts. That includes three rookies drafted last season, and an additional three players that were drafted in 2023.

Essentially: Utah is as stocked with young talent as a team can reasonably be. They didn’t need that many additional bites at the apple.

Instead, the Jazz retained the best and first bites at the apple over a few years, while adding a potentially really juicy whole apple several years from now.

Keeping it really simple: This trade was about trading quantity for potential quality for Utah. The Jazz happened to have extra picks in the years where the Suns really needed some picks. And Danny Ainge took those extra picks, added “least favorable” conditions to them to protect his haul, and picked up a first-round pick that could have great value.

While Ainge has earned his criticism for always “being close” to trading for various superstars over the years, no one can knock his ability to maximize draft capital. Ainge did it twice when rebuilding the Boston Celtics, and has brought that same approach to the Jazz.

We have no idea what the Suns will be in 2031. They could be deep into a rebuild. They could have flipped high-salary players and already rebuilt. They could keep things rolling and maintain being a playoff team all the way through.

But there’s a chance that 2031 pick could be awesome. Utah gave up a couple of extra picks that are likely to be in the 20s. That’s worth it for the shot at whatever current seventh-grader might be the next Victor Wembanyama or Cooper Flagg. Danny Ainge has won before playing the long-game. He’s setting up to do it again.

Sepp Straka wins The American Express. Straka earns $1.58 million bringing his 2025 on-course earnings to $1.9 million and his career on-course earnings to $23.8 million. 

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NBA trade wheels are back in motion! The Phoenix Suns added some frontcourt depth and the Charlotte Hornets picked up some additional draft capital in a three-weeks-to-the-deadline swap.

Here are the particulars:

Phoenix Suns acquire: Nick Richards, less favorable Nuggets or 76ers 2025 second-round pick

Charlotte Hornets acquire: Josh Okogie, 2026 Nuggets second-round pick, 2031 Nuggets second-round pick, 2031 Suns second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Phoenix Suns

Incoming salary: $5.0 million in 2024-25

• Nick Richards (C, two years, $10.0 million (2025-26 non-guaranteed))

Outgoing salary: $8.25 million in 2024-25

• Josh Okogie (SG, two years, $16 million (2025-26 non-guaranteed))

With Jusuf Nurkic underperforming, and recently removed from the rotation, the Suns were looking for additional center depth. They got it in Nick Richards, who is quietly having a very productive season for the Hornets.

Richards has established himself as one of the better backup centers, especially for how good of a value contract he has (more on that in a bit). This season, the fifth-year big man is averaging 8.9 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 21 minutes per game off the Hornets bench. Richards has also shown improvement as a passer. He’s not much of a shooter, but he’s drawing a career-best 4.1 free throws per game, despite his limited minutes.

Think athleticism, energy and physicality on both ends and you have a solid profile of what Richards does. The Suns have some of those things in Mason Plumlee and rookie Oso Ighodaro, but this rounds out the Phoenix frontcourt nicely.

The Suns are now protected against injury, without having to turn back to Nurkic, assuming he even sticks around (more coming on that too). Also, if Ighodaro hits the rookie wall, Phoenix won’t be forced to make him play through it.

In addition, Richards’ contract is very team-friendly. He’s owed $5 million this season. By trading out of the $8.25 million owed the Josh Okogie, the Suns reduced their luxury tax bill by $20 million. That’s how punitive the penalties are with how deep into the tax Phoenix is. That savings can’t be discounted.

Beyond this season, Richards is signed for another $5 million for next season, which is also non-guaranteed. If, for some unlikely reason, Richards isn’t working out, Phoenix can move on without increasing their tax bill.

Trading out three seconds is offset a bit by getting one back. The 2025 second-round pick is going to be the Nuggets pick, given how far ahead of the 76ers they are in the standings. But that’s really about having an additional tradable item for the Suns, more than having a great value pick. We have no idea what the Suns or Nuggets will be in 2031, so we’ll leave those two in TBD stage for now.

Phoenix started the day nearly $31.5 million over the second apron. That left them with very restricted trade options. They did well here to use Josh Okogie’s inflated contract (Remember: Okogie was given the bigger deal to basically become a human trade exception) along with some limited draft capital, to get a rotation upgrade.

Also important: The Suns didn’t end up giving up Jusuf Nurkic in this deal. That’s huge, because now Phoenix can use his $18.1 million contract in another deal. That seems very likely, as Nurkic is clearly out of the plans in Phoenix.

Charlotte Hornets

Incoming salary: $8.25 million in 2024-25

• Josh Okogie (SG, two years, $16 million (2025-26 non-guaranteed))

Outgoing salary: $5.0 million in 2024-25

• Nick Richards (C, two years, $10.0 million (2025-26 non-guaranteed))

This trade was about getting additional draft capital in for the Hornets. Richards is a nice player, but with Mark Williams healthy, he was never going to be more than a very good backup for Charlotte. In addition, the Hornets are very high on two-way player Moussa Diabate, who has given the team good minutes when they were down other centers due to injury.

Josh Okogie could stick in Charlotte for a bit. The Hornets aren’t exactly flush with big guard/wing depth. Brandon Miller and Josh Green are solid starters, but there’s not a lot behind them. Tre Mann has been out with an injury. Nick Smith Jr. continues to yo-yo in and out of the rotation, and Cody Martin is more of a forward than a guard.

There’s a chance Okogie gets a real look. He was pretty good for Phoenix two seasons ago as a regular rotation guy. It’s a small sample size in his limited minutes this season, but Okogie is also shooting better than ever.

Think of this as a tryout of sorts, until/if the Hornets need a roster spot. If they do (possibly to convert Diabate to standard deal), Charlotte can move on with relative ease.

Part of the reason the Hornets can move on with relative ease is that Okogie’s contract is non-guaranteed for the 2025-26 season. That’s the same flexibility the team had with Richards, but Richards was never a candidate to get waived. Okogie is, given he hasn’t been a part of the long-term build for Charlotte.

The cost of this was $3.25 million on the cap sheet for the Hornets. Given the team is still over $7 million shy of the luxury tax, Charlotte has more than enough clearance for further roster shuffling.

The second-round picks are basically additional at-bats for Charlotte. They trade out what will be a late second this season, for what could possibly be a better Denver pick next season, if the Nuggets slip. And we have no idea what the Suns or Nuggets will be in six years. Both teams could be deep into rebuilds by that point.

If nothing else, Jeff Peterson added to his draft pick stash and gave himself potential assets to offer in future deals. All by trading from a position of strength and for renting a little bit of his space under the luxury tax. That’s solid work in a non-blockbuster move.

The Memphis Grizzlies should be rooting hard for Jaren Jackson Jr. to make an All-NBA team (increasingly likely) or to win Defensive Player of the Year (Jackson is in the mix, but it may be Victor Wembanyama’s award to lose) for the 2024-25 season.

Breaking News: NBA team wants their player to get accolades for a great season.

No kidding, right?

But this goes way deeper for Jackson and Memphis. And it could ultimately have an impact on the team’s ability to keep their versatile big man long-term. Before we go there, let’s go back to understand where the Grizzlies and Jackson are currently at.

Back in the 2021 offseason (in October due to the COVID-impacted adjusted calendar), the Grizzlies signed Jackson to a four-year, $104.7 million rookie scale extension. Memphis got Jackson on an under-market deal because he was coming off a knee injury that had cost him most of the 2020-21 season.

Beyond getting Jackson for less than the max, the Grizzlies were hailed at the time for making the extension a declining contract. Jackson’s extension looks like this:

• 2022-23: $28,946,605
• 2023-24: $27,102,202
• 2024-25: $25,257,798
• 2025-26: $23,413,395
• Total: four years, $107,720,000

Well done by Memphis, right? Jackson is clearly returning more than $25.3 million in value this season (more on that in a moment) and he’s an absolute steal at $23.4 million for next season. Hard to find any criticism for the Grizzlies with this deal.

Well, not exactly…kind of. It’s not really the Grizzlies fault, but more of the circumstances of the CBA.

Memphis did a great job protecting themselves on this deal. Despite some great flashes in his first two seasons, Jackson had piled up quite the list of leg injuries. And the 11-game sample in the 2020-21 season, plus playoffs, wasn’t exactly screaming All-NBA guy.

So, in full context, Memphis signed Jackson to a very fair, and smartly structured, contract at the time. And now it could come back to bite them.

Whenever a player signs a less-than-max deal, while having loads of potential, we all get excited as cap analysts and fans. If that contract is declining, it becomes a full-blown celebration. It’s time to re-think that, at least a bit.

Under the current CBA, the NBA has made veteran extensions more lucrative than ever. Instead of being limited to a 120% raise over the final-season salary, teams can bump a player up by 140%. That’s better, but it’s still not enough in a lot of cases.

Let’s use Jackson as an example. He’s extension-eligible this summer. Because he’ll have one year left on his deal, Jackson can add four new years to his contract. Here’s what Jackson’s new deal could look like:

• 2025-26: $23,413,395 (final season of current deal)
• 2026-27: $32,778,753 (first season of extension)
• 2027-28: $35,401,053
• 2028-29: $38,023,353
• 2029-30: $40,645,653
• Total extension: four years, $146,848,812

That’s a full 140% bump for Jackson in the first year of his extension, plus 8% raises on the subsequent years.

That probably looks pretty good, but again, we need to frame this with some context.

Here’s the percentage of the cap that each of the above extension years would reflect:

• 2026-27: 19%
• 2027-28: 19%
• 2028-29: 18%
• 2029-30: 18%

This projects the cap to continue to grow at the maximum allowable 10% per year throughout the life of Jackson’s potential veteran extension.

That’s well below the 30% of the cap maximum Jackson could sign for if he delayed signing a new deal until he was an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2026. That deal would look like this:

• 2026-27: $51,033,600 (30% of projected $170,112,000 cap)
• 2027-28: $55,116,288
• 2028-29: $59,198,976
• 2029-30: $62,281,664
• 2030-31: $67,364,352
• Total: five years, $295,994,880

That’s full five-year deal using Jackson’s Bird Rights that starts at his max of 30% of the cap with 8% raises.

To be fair, we’ll eliminate the fifth year, just to do a four-year to four-year comparison of the veteran extension against the new contract:

• Veteran Extension: four years, $146,848,812
• New Contract: four years, $228,630,528

Jackson could be leaving nearly $82 million on the table by signing a veteran extension this summer, as opposed to waiting to sign a new deal as a free agent in the summer of 2026.

This is why signing a player to an under-market extension, combined with the declining contract can come back to bite a team. If the player breaks out, then he’s not really extendable. And, boy, has Jackson ever broken out.

Last season, Jackson was a bright spot in an injury-ravaged season for the Grizzlies. He played most of the season, only really missing games when there was little point to him playing. Playing with a lot of players on two-way and 10 Day deals (including several on Hardship contracts), Jackson managed to put together a good season. The lack of help led to some inefficiency, but the on-ball playmaker reps helped Jackson really round out his game.

This year, Jackson has built on that in a great way. As of this writing, He’s scoring a career-high 22.8 points per game on 50/35/78 shooting splits. Jackson is also grabbing 6.4 rebounds per game and handing out 2.1 assists per night.

But it’s on the defensive end where Jackson shines brightest.

Jackson is averaging 1.7 blocks and 1.5 steals per game. He’s keyed the Grizzlies fifth-ranked defense, as almost everything Memphis does is built around Jackson’s ability on that end of the floor. Jackson regularly defends 1-5, excelling on the perimeter and around the rim equally. He’s absolutely a contender to win Defensive Player of the Year.

It’s that production on defense, along with the improved offense, that might give the Grizzlies the key to paying Jackson without him ever reaching unrestricted free agency.

Even though NBA teams are no longer really spending a year or two clearing cap space to make a run at free agents, that path in roster building isn’t completely dead. It’s simply become less-used because so many players sign extensions now. However, as we covered above, a standard veteran extension isn’t going to get it done for Jaren Jackson Jr.

But a Designated Veteran Player Extension might. And that’s why the Grizzlies need to be rooting for Jackson to collect some accolades for this season.

If Jackson makes All-NBA this season or wins Defensive Player of the Year, he’d become eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Player Extension (DVPE), or so-called Super Max, this offseason. Here’s what the full DPVE would look like:

• 2026-27: $59,539,200 (35% of projected $170,112,000 cap)
• 2027-28: $64,302,336
• 2028-29: $69,065,472
• 2029-30: $73,828,608
• 2030-31: $78,591,744
• Total: five years, $345,327,360

That’s the 35% of the cap max with 8% raises each season. That’s the maximum a player qualifies for by reaching All-NBA status, winning Defensive Player of the Year or winning MVP.

For comparison’s sake, that’s about $49.3 million over the 30% max Jackson could get as an unrestricted free agent in 2026. It’s nearly $120 million more in the four-year-to-four-year comp to the standard veteran extension.

Now, is Jaren Jackson Jr. a full 35% of the cap max guy? Probably not, especially not for the Grizzlies.

Memphis is a small market team and they already have Ja Morant on a max extension and Desmond Bane on a near-max deal. Under the new CBA, building a team around three max players is really, really hard. And Memphis has never been a team that has dipped deep into the luxury tax.

More simply put: It’s not likely Jackson will get the full super max.

But here’s the thing: Making All-NBA or winning Defensive Player of the Year to still be a huge win for Jackson and the Grizzlies, even without the full super max.

The only ways for Memphis to pay Jackson more than he can get in a standard veteran extension are to let him hit unrestricted free agency in 2026. That’s risky. He’s good enough, and young enough, that whatever cap space teams are out there (there will be a few in the 2026 offseason) would make a run at Jackson with a full max offer. They couldn’t beat the Grizzlies deal, because those teams would be limited to offering a four-year deal with 5% raises, but it’s still a risk. No one wants their players in free agency, if they can avoid it.

The other way to pay Jackson more than the standard veteran extension is if he qualifies for the Designated Veteran Player Extension. Yes, that full super max is more than what Memphis should give Jackson. The good news? They don’t have to give him the full 35% of the cap max!

If Jackson qualifies for the DVPE, Memphis can give him a five-year deal but it only has to start at the 30% of the cap figure. The other key: It would free up Memphis to sign Jackson to this bigger, longer extension this summer. That’s huge for keeping Jackson out of free agency in 2026.

Jackson is definitely going to get a 30% of the cap max, whether it’s from the Grizzlies or another team. If he makes All-NBA or wins Defensive Player of the Year, Memphis can get that done as soon as July.

We also have a recent example of a defensive-minded big man getting extended in exactly this fashion.

When Rudy Gobert signed his last extension with the Utah Jazz in 2020 (since played out and replaced by his current extension with the Minnesota Timberwolves), he could have signed a 35% of the cap DVPE deal. But Gobert and the Jazz split the difference. Jackson and the Grizzlies could do something similar. A reasonable compromise for both sides is to probably start the extension at the 30% of the cap amount (or maybe a bit more), but with a player option on the fifth season.

That would get Jackson paid, plus give him a five-year deal, which he can only get from Memphis in free agency or on a Designated Veteran Player Extension. And, crucially, it would give Jackson the ability to get into free agency in 2030 ahead of his age-30 season. That’s definitely young enough to cash in on one more big contract, from Memphis or elsewhere.

NBA teams publicly want their players to garner accolades like MVP, Defensive Player of the Year or All-NBA. They campaign for it openly every season. That means that player had a great season, and those awards are often tied to team success as well, which means the team was likely pretty good too.

Behind closed doors, when those accolades impact the player’s ability to get paid significantly more, teams are often less enthusiastic. It can cause stress on the cap sheet in a way that might not have been planned for, especially if the player reached those heights unexpectedly. That’s even more prevalent in this new CBA world of hard caps, aprons and the restrictions that come with them.

In the case of Jaren Jackson Jr. and the Memphis Grizzlies, his breakout season is the best of both worlds. Jackson gets his accolades and the love for his play and the Grizzlies benefit by being a very good team this season. And, of course, it will allow Memphis to give Jackson a big contract early without risking one of their best players hitting unrestricted free agency. That’s a win-win scenario in a spot that’s often 50-50 at best.

NWSL teams are able to start their preseason camp as soon as Wednesday, and with it are required to be at 40-player camp rosters—including both rostered and non-rostered invitees (NRIs). Here’s a look at where the NWSL rosters currently stand ahead of preseason starting.

Reminder from the NWSL Competition Manual:
“A Team may exceed the maximum number of Players assigned to its Roster and the maximum number of international Roster spots starting the day following the NWSL Championship through the Roster Compliance Date of the following League Season, but a Player’s Salary Cap charge will count towards a Teams Salary Cap at the daily rate for the number of days the player is on the Roster.”

Teams have until March 12th to get into full compliance with both their INTL roster spots, and the 22-26 active roster, and while there is no penalty for being temporarily over in terms of INTL spots, even players who don’t play any games this year for a team will still count toward the salary cap in a prorated way. 

Overview of 2025 Rosters (End-of-day 1/13/25)

Table 1: An overview of active and non-active rostered players for 2025. Filled green box means the club has eight INTL spots, red means six INTL spots, no special shading means the club has the standard seven maximum spots. 

At full capacity, where every NWSL team uses the maximum 26 active roster spots, there can be 364 active players in the league. Currently, 312 of those spots are in use, with 27 non-active players (1 D45, 2 outgoing loans ending in June, 24 2024 SEI remaining on rosters), which leaves only 25 open spots for the remaining 61 free agents, and collegiate players looking to land on a team for the upcoming season. 

Bay FC and Orlando will have to be smart about their non-active players re-joining the active roster as Bay sits at the maximum of 26 but has a 2024 SEI who is eligible to come off non-active and Orlando has 24 active roster players, but four 2024 SEI’s who are eligible to put them over the active roster limits. North Carolina, Seattle, and Washington are all at the 26 player maximum if you look at their combined total, although especially for some of the later in the 2024 SEI’s, the feasibility of them re-joining in 2025 might be small. San Diego, Angel City, and Portland are all under the 22 active player limit when including their SEI’s. Utah and Chicago are currently under with their active players, but if their SEI’s are included would be in a roster complaint range. 

Chart 1: A breakdown of the 2025 International Spots allocated to players

With each team starting with seven international spots, there are 98 INTL spots in the NWSL for 2025, but only 70 actively in use with another 6 attached to non-active roster players. After trading for an additional INTL spot last year, the Utah Royals are under SEI compliance even if their one SEI INTL player comes back in 2025, considering how late Cloé Lacasse tore her ACL in 2024, this would definitely be a push. Keep an eye on the Washington Spirit though because they currently have all seven of their spots in use, and an additional one that could come back in Ouleye Sarr who was battling a back injury from September through the NWSL Championship. 

Free Agency Update:

Looking at free agency as a whole, there have been 56 players who have signed with teams in 2025, 8 free agents have signed with clubs outside the NWSL, and 11 players have announced their retirements. There are 61 free agents who played in the NWSL in 2024 who have yet to sign with a club for 2025. 

Most teams have put out ‘Thank You’ posts to their 2024 rostered free agents who they will not be re-signing in 2025, or announced it in the end-of-season roster announcements in December. That being said, there are still 12 players who have yet to receive a ‘Thank You’ post or the last update from the team was that they were in negotiations:

Angel City FC - Christen Press

Chicago Stars - Sarah Griffith

Houston Dash - Erin McKinney, Havana Solaun

Kansas City Current - Elizabeth Ball, Kristen Hamilton, Mallory Weber

NJ/NY Gotham FC - Michelle Betos, Midge Purce

North Carolina Courage - Kerolin

Portland Thorns - Gabby Provenzano

Seattle Reign - Lauren Barnes

Bonus Charts– Positional Breakdown:

Chart 2: A breakdown of the 339 players currently under contract for the 2025 season, both active and non-active. 

Chart 3: Breaking down each team’s active players by position

Chart 4: Breaking down each team’s non-active players by position

Nick Taylor wins Sony Open in Hawaii. Taylor earns $1.57 million bringing his 2025 on-course earnings to $1.57 million and his career on-course earnings to $20.3 million. 

Sony Open in Hawaii Top 10 Payouts

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2025 Earnings Leaders Update

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