Our NFL Offseason Series continues with analysis for each team’s notable free agents, projected financials, & a few extension or roster bubble candidates heading toward the offseason.

SPOTRAC'S OFFSEASON SERIES
AFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
NFC: NORTH | SOUTH | EAST | WEST
POSITIONAL: QB | RB | WR

Houston Texans

2023 Cap Space: $39M
Rostered Players: 48
Draft Pick: #2, #12 from CLE

If the Texans are lept in this April’s draft by a team who takes the QB they should have taken, the Week 18 win against the Colts will haunt this franchise for years to come. There’s a lot of work to be done on this roster, and this still might be a year of subtracting (Cooks) before adding too much.

Notable Free Agents

• Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (LB, 27)
• MORE

Extension Candidate

Tytus Howard (RT, 27)
Set to play on a fully guaranteed $13.2M 5th-year option salary in 2023, Howard has played well enough to warrant a multi-year extension. Bolstering the O-Line should be a priority with a shiny new QB coming to town soon.

Bubble Candidate

Brandin Cooks (WR, 30)
He’s already started saying his goodbyes, despite signing a 2 year, $40M extension 9 months ago. Cooks will demand a trade out of town this March, leaving behind $16.2M of dead cap to the Texans (saving $10M). He’ll bring a 2 year, $35M contract, including $18M fully guaranteed in 2023, with him to a new franchise.

Indianapolis Colts

2023 Cap Space: $19M
Rostered Players: 54
Draft Pick: #4

The Colts have a chance to package together a trade that can send them to #1, taking away the top QB in the draft from division foe Houston. Indy should be seeking out pass rushers, interior offensive linemen, and more than a few offensive weapons this offseason.

Notable Free Agents

• Rodney McLeod (S, 32)
• Chase McLaughlin (K, 26)
• Yannick Ngakoue (DE, 27)
• Parris Campbell (WR, 25)
• MORE

Extension Candidate

Jonathan Taylor (RB, 24)
No, it wasn’t neary the season we saw from Taylor in 2020 or 2021, but injury, coaching changes, QB changes, etc… all factored into a weird offensive season for this entire franchise. The bottom line is, this team is better with Taylor on it, and he enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non guaranteed $1.6M. Nick Chubb’s $12.2M per year deal is the floor.

Isaiah Rodgers (DB, 25)
He’s given snaps at both safety and cornerback across 3 seasons and enters a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M. Locking in a versatile defensive back early rarely hurts teams.

Bubble Candidate

Kenny Moore (CB, 28)
We’d characterize this release “unlikely” right now, but a new coaching staff might look at the $7.4M of cap and cash to be saved differently. Stephon Gilmore’s $12M+ should also be in consideration, but he played extremely well across 2022.

Nick Foles (QB, 34)
$1.5M of Foles’ 2023 salary is fully guaranteed, which signals he’ll stick around as a backup next season - but Matt Ryan has $12M fully guaranteed. If the Colts draft a new QB this offseason, something is likely to give here.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 Cap Space: -$20M
Rostered Players: 41
Draft Pick: TBD

After a big offseason of spending, and a proven coach hire, 2022 probably went exactly as the front office hoped and planned. Now it’s about finding those last few puzzle pieces to take them into true AFC contention. Calvin Ridley is a good start, but a versatile safety and more help on the interior of the offensive line should be priority as well.

Notable Free Agents

• Arden Key (DE, 26)
• Evan Engram (TE, 28)
• Jawaan Taylor (RT, 25)
• Marvin Jones (WR, 32)
• MORE

Extension Candidate

Josh Allen (LB, 26)

Allen enters a contract year in 2023, set to play out a fully guaranteed $10.8M 5th-year option salary. He’s posted back to back 7+ sack seasons, adding 4 forced fumbles into the mix in 2022. Matt Judon’s 4 year, $55M deal in New England is a solid floor here.

Bubble Candidate

Shaquill Griffin (CB, 28)

Still a solid player, but a back injury has him out indefinitely. It’s something to watch, as $4.5M of his 2023 salary is guaranteed for injury, becoming fully guaranteed on March 17th. If he passes a physical and the Jags move on, there’s $13.5M to be freed up.

Tennessee Titans

2023 Cap Space: -$24M
Rostered Players: 51
Draft Pick: 11th

Tennessee spent the 12th most cash in football this year and is currently set to be 9th in 2023. Are they too pot committed to rip this band-aid off, even if the play on the field suggests they should? Unless something falls into their lap, Ryan Tannehill is probably the Week 1 QB for this organization.

Notable Free Agents

• Andrew Adams (S, 30)
• DeMarcus Walker (DE, 28)
• Austin Hooper (TE, 28)
• MORE

Extension Candidate

Jeffery Simmons (DL, 26)
Holds a fully guaranteed $10.7M 5th-year option salary in 2023, and should be the next defensive player to cash in big. He’s had back to back identical seasons for the Titans, but lacks the bigtime numbers that might put him in the Myles Garrett/Aaron Donald world financially. He projects to a 4 year, $86M extension in our system.

Derrick Henry (RB, 29)
Who says running backs can’t play after age 27? Henry compiled 1,936 yards from scrimmage this season. While his 6 fumbles are alarming, it seems inconceivable that Tennessee would even consider moving on right now, in which case his $16M+ cap hit for 2023 needs to be addressed. The Titans can process a simple salary conversation to lower the hit - or tack on a few seasons and restructure the contract altogether.

Bubble Candidate

Ryan Tannehill (QB, 35)

We’re required to put him here as his play has declined, and his $36.6M cap hit for 2023 isn’t healthy. The Titans can free up $17.8M of cap with an early release ($27M if Post 6/1), but if the plan is to win ball games in 2023, this won’t happen until they know they have a better option on the roster.

Taylor Lewan (OT, 32)

This one seems inevitable as the former #11 overall pick enters a contract year in 2023, and his entire $14.8M cap hit can be cleared via release.

Robert Woods (WR, 30)

Woods has a non-guaranteed 3 year, $47M remaining on his contract, so his stability is going to be limited from here out. His production aligns more with a WR3 than it does a $15M+ receiver right now, and the Titans can clear $12M with an early trade or release.

January 7 isn’t a well-known date on the NBA calendar, but it should be. Many know that on January 10, all NBA contracts become fully guaranteed. What isn’t as well-known is that in order for a team to not have a fully guaranteed deal land on their books for the rest of the season, they have to make a decision by January 7.

Teams must waive players on partial/non-guaranteed deals by January 7 in order for them to clear waivers before January 10. (The waiver period is 48 hours). Thus, while January 10 is the technical date that all contracts become fully guaranteed, January 7 is the functional deadline.

We’ve already seen some movement around this deadline. The Boston Celtics traded Noah Vonleh to the San Antonio Spurs, who subsequently waived Vonleh. The Dallas Mavericks waived veteran guard Kemba Walker.

There are 27 players still in limbo before the January 7 deadline. Here are the decisions NBA teams must make. (All salary amounts reflect the player’s fully guaranteed cap hit.)

Atlanta Hawks

Vit Krejci - $1,563,518

This is a true 50-50 decision. The Hawks are close to the luxury tax line, but won’t save much by waiving Krejci. And they’re already sitting on one open roster spot. The guess here is that Krejci sticks.

Tyrese Martin - $1,017,781

Atlanta made a significant investment in Martin as a 2022 second-round pick. He’s not getting waived.

Boston Celtics

Justin Jackson - $1,836,090

When Boston traded away Noah Vonleh in a salary-clearing move, it boosted Jackson’s chances of sticking around. The Celtics aren’t exactly swimming in wing depth either. Jackson probably sticks, unless Boston really wants to play in the buyout market.

Luke Kornet - $2,133,278

Kornet has been a regular rotation player. The Celtics figure to play it safe with Rob Williams and Al Horford the rest of the regular season. Kornet isn’t going anywhere.

Brooklyn Nets

Markieff Morris - $1,836,000

The Nets just guaranteed Morris $1 million last month. He’s not going anywhere.

Edmond Sumner - $1,968,175

Sumner’s return to the court has been a fun story. He’s also played a rotation role at times. He’ll stick through the guarantee deadline.

Yuta Watanabe - $1,836,090

Watanabe has been one of the best bargains in the league, after earning a roster spot in training camp. He’ll be in Brooklyn for the rest of the season.

Charlotte Hornets

Dennis Smith Jr. - $1,836,090

When healthy, Smith has been a very solid backup point guard for Charlotte. He’s sticking around.

Chicago Bulls

No guarantee decisions

Cleveland Cavaliers

Lamar Stevens - $1,782,621

Stevens has been a rotation guy and sometimes starter for the Cavs. He’ll be staying in Cleveland.

Dallas Mavericks

No remaining guarantee decisions after waiving Kemba Walker

Denver Nuggets

No guarantee decisions

Detroit Pistons

No guarantee decisions

Golden State Warriors

No guarantee decisions

Houston Rockets

No guarantee decisions

Indiana Pacers

Oshae Brissett - $1,846,738

Brissett is a regular rotation guy in Indiana and the only true four in their rotation. He’s not going anywhere.

James Johnson - $1,836,090

The Pacers are currently around $15 million under the salary floor. They’ll guarantee Johnson and if they need a roster spot, they’ll just eat his salary.

LA Clippers

No guarantee decisions

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers will reportedly guarantee both Wenyen Gabriel ($1,878,720) and Austin Reaves ($1,5563,518). This makes sense as both are rotation guys. Reaves becomes a very interesting restricted free agent to monitor this coming offseason.

Memphis Grizzlies

Danny Green - $10,000,000

Green isn’t going to get waived. The real question is if Green will be part of a trade package, of if he can return from his torn ACL to give Memphis some wing depth.

Miami Heat

Haywood Highsmith - $1,752,638

Highsmith will stick around in Miami. He’s played regular minutes in Miami’s miniature and banged-up frontcourt.

Milwaukee Bucks

No guarantee decisions

Minnesota Timberwolves

Nathan Knight - $1,839,090

The Wolves like Knight as a depth player in their frontcourt. He’ll stick around for the rest of the season.

Jaylen Nowell - $1,930,681

This is a no-brainer. Nowell is Minnesota’s best reserve guard. He’s not getting waived. Nowell is also an interesting extension candidate for the Wolves.

Austin Rivers - $1,836,090

Rivers is a rotation regular for Chris Finch. He’ll continue to be one after the guarantee deadline passes on January 7.

New Orleans Pelicans

Jose Alvarado - $1,563,518

Arguably the biggest no-brainer on the list. Alvarado is on a steal of a deal for the Pels and isn’t going anywhere.

New York Knicks

Ryan Arcidiacono - $1,836,090

Arcidiacono is a favorite of Tom Thibodeau, so he’ll stick around. He’s also occasionally played when New York has dealt with backcourt injuries.

Svi Mykhailiuk - $1,836,090

Mykhailiuk won a roster spot during the preseason, but that hasn’t translated to anything further. Even when the Knicks have been down several wings, Mykhailiuk hasn’t played. This is a tough call, but the guess is the Knicks let him go.

Oklahoma City Thunder

No guarantee decisions

Orlando Magic

Jonathan Isaac - $17,400,000

This is a quirky one. By not meeting games-played minimums, Isaac’s contract converted to partial and non-guaranteed years over its final three seasons. He’s still not back yet, but the Magic aren’t ready to move on either. He’ll make it through the rest of this year. Depending on how Isaac looks when he does play sets up an interesting decision for Orlando this summer.

Philadelphia 76ers

No guarantee decisions

Phoenix Suns

Jock Landale - $1,563,518

Landale seemed like he would be waived long ago, but he’s become Phoenix’s best backup big behind Deandre Ayton. He’ll stick with the Suns for the rest of the season.

Portland Trail Blazers

No guarantee decisions

Sacramento Kings

Matthew Dellavedova - $1,836,090

This one is tough. Mike Brown loves Dellavedova being the veteran guard with a still-young group. But the Kings might need a roster spot for flexibility during trade and buyout season. The guess is Dellavedova sticks, but could be thrown into a trade package, or waived if Sacramento makes an unbalanced trade.

Chima Moneke - $1,017,781

Moneke hasn’t done much for the Kings. He’s shuttled back and forth to the G League a lot. But Sacramento made a decent-sized salary commitment to him. He probably sticks around.

KZ Okpala - $1,902,133

Okpala is in a bit of a similar spot as Moneke, as far as salary-commitment goes. But Okpala sees minutes on a fairly regular basis too. He’ll stick in Sacramento.

San Antonio Spurs

Stanley Johnson - $1,245,164

Johnson will stay in San Antonio. The Spurs are $14.7 million under the salary floor and already have an open roster spot. With Devin Vassell out for a while after knee surgery, Johnson isn’t going to be waived.

Toronto Raptors

No guarantee decisions after waiving Justin Champagnie last month

Utah Jazz

No guarantee decisions

Washington Wizards

No guarantee decisions

While most of the eyes around the NBA are on the February 9 trade deadline, there are a few dates that take precedence first. The first is Thursday, January 5, which is when teams can sign 10 Day contracts. A 10 Day contract is almost exactly what it sounds like. It’s a contract for the greater of 10 days or three games. It’s a temporary deal designed to give a team a bit of help for a short period.

There are a couple of rules to consider with 10 Day contracts. First, a team must have an open roster spot to sign the player. Unlike last season, when teams were regularly given additional hardship spots due to COVID-related absences, that hasn’t happened this year. Fingers crossed we don’t get there either!

The second rule with a 10 Day contract to be aware of is that teams are limited to signing the same player to only two 10 Day deals. After the second 10 Day is complete, if the team wants to keep that player, they must sign them for the remainder of the season.

Going back to roster spots, here are the teams who can currently sign a player to a 10 Day contract:

• Atlanta Hawks
• Charlotte Hornets
• Cleveland Cavaliers
• Golden State Warriors
• LA Clippers
• Los Angeles Lakers
• Miami Heat
• Oklahoma City Thunder*
• Philadelphia 76ers
• Phoenix Suns
• Portland Trail Blazers
• Toronto Raptors

*Oklahoma City is eligible to apply for a hardship exception to add a roster spot, as they currently have four players dealing with long-term injuries.

Of the teams with an opening, Miami and Portland are close enough to avoiding the luxury tax, that they could forgo signing anyone for a while. The Warriors, Clippers, Lakers, Sixers and Suns are all tax teams and may want to keep their bills down. Over the years, the advent of Two-Way deals have allowed teams to get the additional help they need while not adding to their salary or tax concerns via a 10 Day signing.

One last thing: NBA contract become fully guaranteed if players aren’t waived by Saturday, January 7. A handful of teams will open up roster spots by waiving players. With buyout season about two months away, those teams could fill those spots with 10 Day players.

With 10 Day season now open, here are some players to keep an eye on to sign a 10 Day deal.

(All G League stats courtesy of RealGM)

The NBA Veterans

It used to be that an NBA veteran of more than a few years would never sign a 10 Day. Those players wanted full contracts or nothing. In recent years, veterans looking to get back into the league have been far more willing to go the 10 Day route. It’s kind of a prove-it process for them to show they can still play.

Carmelo Anthony

It’s a bit odd to see a 19-year veteran leading off this list, but Anthony belongs here. When we last saw him play, Anthony averaged 13.3 points in 26 minutes per game off the Los Angeles Lakers bench. He could use a 10 Day or two to boost his odds of catching on for the rest of the season somewhere.

DeMarcus Cousins

Cousins showed enough that he could have a backup center spot. He was effective with both the Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks. The question with Cousins: Will he except a role where he doesn’t play much?

Isaiah Thomas

Last season, Thomas used a series of 10 Days to show he could still play before signing with the Charlotte Hornets for the rest of the season. Thomas stays in good shape and could help a team looking for scoring and point guard depth off the bench.

Hassan Whiteside

It’s a little shocking Whiteside hasn’t signed somewhere yet. He was very effective on both offense and defense with the Utah Jazz last season. He may need to take a prove-it deal to show he can do that for a team this season.

The G League Callups

Most 10 Day deals come as a result of callups from the G League. It’s important to note that unless a player is signed to a standard or Two-Way contract with an NBA team, they are a free agent in NBA terms. That means that even if a player is playing for an NBA team’s G League affiliate, they can be signed by any NBA team.

James Akinjo – Westchester Knicks

The point guard showed a bit at Summer League in limited minutes. Since then, Akinjo has popped in the G League. 9.2 assists per game and some good three-point shooting could earn Akinjo a callup when a team needs point guard depth.

Chris Chiozza – Long Island Nets

Chiozza is a veteran of the G League-to-NBA pipeline. He’s been there done that. The reason why is teams know he’ll produce if they add him. Chiozza plays decent defense, rebounds well for his size (5-foot-11) and is a high-end playmaker. His shooting holds him back, but he’s a callup candidate for playmaking depth.

Gary Clark – Mexico City Capitanes

Clark is another guy who has done the G League-to-NBA path a few times. He’s a solid defender that can hold his own against most wings and forwards. Clark is also showing consistent shooting. He’s worthy of another NBA shot.

Sharife Cooper – Cleveland Charge:

Cooper is the equivalent of a 4A guy in Major League Baseball. Too good for the minors, but not quite good enough to stick in the majors. Cooper is using his speed to score a non-NBA deal, league-leading 25.2 points per game in the G League. He’s also upped his playmaking and long-range shooting. He’s another point guard callup candidate.

Tyler Dorsey – Free Agent

Dorsey was with the Dallas Mavericks on a Two-Way deal until earlier this month. He’s got overseas offers, but Dorsey is apparently waiting things out with 10 Day season open in the NBA. He’s an overpowering scorer in the G League. If Dorsey can ever translate his G League and overseas shooting to the NBA, he’ll be a standard contract guy.

Kris Dunn – Capital City Go-Go

Credit to Dunn for taking a route a lot of “failed” lottery picks won’t take. Often, those players head overseas or disappear entirely. Dunn has been one of the best all-around players in the G League this season. He’s scoring, passing and defending at a high level. One scout told Spotrac that “Dunn is the best perimeter defender not playing in the NBA.” He’ll get a callup at some point.

Tyler Hall – Texas Legends

Hall was described to Spotrac as “the best shooter in the G League”. At 47.3% on 9.1 three-pointer attempts per game, that’s probably accurate. Hall doesn’t do a whole lot beyond shooting, but a one-skill player is still a callup candidate. Witness Matt Ryan a year ago. He’s turned his shooting into multiple NBA contracts. Hall could be next.

Shaq Harrison – South Bay Lakers

Harrison doesn’t do a lot of scoring, but he’s been great in all other facets of the game. His defense keeps getting him NBA opportunities, and it probably will again. If he could shoot (he’s been an inconsistent throughout his career), Harrison would already be on an NBA roster.

Jay Huff – South Bay Lakers

One scout who saw Huff at the G League Showcase told Spotrac: “He’s the best floor-spacing, rim-protecting prospect around that isn’t (Victor Wembanyama).” That’s high praise, but Huff is shooting 36.2% from deep this season, while blocking 3.2 shots a night. That’s a combo NBA teams prize. Huff is probably better than a couple of the deeper bench guys his own parent club the Los Angeles Lakers roll out on a nightly basis. Huff is also only 24 years old and screams classic late-bloomer big man.

Alize Johnson – Austin Spurs

Johnson is a four-year NBA vet and he had a stint with San Antonio already this season. He’s the best rebounder on this list. If the three-point shooting and improved finishing inside are real, Johnson could be a good bet to earn a full NBA deal.

Jontay Porter – Wisconsin Herd

It’s been a journey for Porter. He’s been on and off the Memphis Grizzlies roster as he recovered from multiple torn ACLs. He’s finally playing consistent minutes in the G League and producing. Like his brother Michael Jr. with the Nuggets, Porter has stretched out his range. He’s shooting 40% on 6.3 three-point attempts per game. And that’s while providing some rim protection and rebounding. At 23 years old, Porter is someone who should snag a real NBA opportunity.

Luka Samanic – Maine Celtics

A scout at the G League showcase told Spotrac “Samanic is finally figuring things out. He’s huge (6-foot-10, but players bigger) and is putting his skill together with his size.” Samanic has always flashed, but he’s now playing consistently good minutes. He’s still a questionable defender, but a team looking for some scoring in their frontcourt should call up the 22-year-old big man.

Jay Scrubb – Lakeland Magic

Unlike what his surname might imply, Scrubb can play. He’s one of the best scorers in the G League, getting his points with a nice mix of inside and outside play. He’s also rebounding more than before and starting to produce defensively sometimes too. At 22 years old and 6-foot-5, Scrubb should get a shot from a team looking for wing scoring.

Zavier Simpson – Lakeland Magic

Simpson had a cup of coffee last season with the Oklahoma City Thunder, but showed a lot in limited minutes. He’s built on that with an outstanding all-around G League season. Always an aggressive scorer, Simpson is showing he can run an offense and make plays for others too. He’s also been competitive on defense, despite his slight build. Teams looking for a point guard could do a lot worse than Simpson.

Gabe York – Fort Wayne Mad Ants

York has been on the NBA radar for years. He’s been good both in the G League and overseas. York is solid both on- and off-ball. He’s another 4A guy, and a bit older than others on this list. But if a team needs an immediate injection of energy, scoring and some defense, York should be their callup.

As the 2023 NFL offseason closes in, Spotrac's Positional Breakdown series continues with a deep dive into the financial statuses of each team's running back position, including rostered players, remaining term & guarantees, and stability at the starting & backup roles.

RELATED: QB ANALYSIS

Arizona Cardinals

Status: Seeking a Wing Man

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $20M

James Conner will enter year 2 of a 3 year $21M deal signed last March. His $5.75M salary for 2023 is already fully guaranteed, and his $7.75M of base pay could be restructured in order to reduce a sizable $10M cap number.

The depth behind him remains at large, as 2022 6th round pick Keaontay Ingram (3 years $2.9M non-guaranteed) projects as the 2023 RB2 currently. There’s an add to be made here.

Atlanta Falcons

Status: Run it Back?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $69M

Cordarrelle Patterson will soon be 32 years old, and his cap hit for 2023 ($5.5M) more than doubles its current state ($2.5M). There’s at least $1.75M of cap to free up here, but keeping the veteran in tow with what is assumed to be a rookie QB probably makes good sense.

2022 5th round pick Tyler Allgeier (3 years, $2.9M non-guaranteed) has already earned top-billing snaps, and projects to be the 2023 starter right now, barring a free agent signing. The Falcons have plenty of other holes to fill before the RB position should be addressed.

Baltimore Ravens

Status: Seeking Durability.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $43M

JK Dobbins will enter a contract year in 2023, set to play out a non-guaranteed $1.4M salary next season. The former #55 overall selection has missed more time than not, making him a strong candidate to be replaced in 2024. Will that happen this March?

27-year-old Gus Edwards has seen as much (or little) action as Dobbins over the past two seasons, and will enter 2023 on a non-guaranteed $5.6M cap hit. Baltimore likely takes the $4.3M to be saved by moving on next March.

Buffalo Bills

Status: Next Man Up

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$3.5M

2022 2nd rounder James Cook has already started to garner more attention in the Bills’ offense, and, with Devin Singletary slated for free agency, it stands to reason that he’ll be handed the keys to the show in 2023. Cook’s rookie deal holds 3 years, $3.7M remaining, including a fully guaranteed $970k salary next season.

Behind him, former Colts weapon Nyheim Hines (acquired at the trade deadline), brings a 2 year, $10.2M non-guaranteed contract with him to the offseason, including cap hits of $4.8M & $5.4M respectively. Buffalo can clear it all with a trade or release this spring.

Devin Singletary projects to a deal around $5.5M per year in our system.

Carolina Panthers

Status: Reinstate the Foreman

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $1.75M

Carolina didn’t miss a beat after trading Christian McCaffrey out west, with D'Onta Foreman & Chuba Hubbard combining for big production down the stretch. Foreman is a pending free agent, currently carrying a $3.5M valuation in our system, and should be strongly considered as a sign back for the Panthers.

Hubbard’s rookie deal contains 2 years, $1.9M remaining, none of it guaranteed.

Chicago Bears

Status: Back Before Forward

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $119M

25-year-old David Montgomery is a pending unrestricted free agent this March, projecting to a 3 year, $21M deal in our system. It stands to reason that Khalil Herbert (2 years, $1.9M non-guaranteed) is already on the roster.

2022 6th rounder Trestan Ebner (3 years, $2.9M non-guaranteed) could be inline for a bigger role next season, but the Bears need to develop both of their trenches before sinking significant capital into more offensive weapons, so don’t be surprised if a low cost veteran or two are added to the mix here as a hold over plan.

Oh and by the way, the guy taking the snaps is a 1,000 yard rusher himself.

Cincinnati Bengals

Status: Possible Shake Up?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $48.8M

Joe Mixon was utilized out of the backfield more than ever in 2022, a good way to extend your shelf life as an NFL running back. The 26-year-old holds 2 years, $20.4M non-guaranteed left on his contract, including cap hits of $12.8M & $13.1M respectively. Cincy likely converts some of his $9.4M base salary into bonus to free up cap space, but Mixon should be locked in for the 2023 season either way.

RB2 Samaje Perine did more than enough to warrant a free agent contract, projecting to $3M per year on the open market, while 2021 6th rounder Chris Evans brings a 2 year, $2.9M non-guaranteed deal into the offseason.

Cleveland Browns

Status: Chubb Complements

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$5.8M

$2.8M of Nick Chubb’s $10.85M salary for 2023 is already fully guaranteed. He’s also very good. A slight restructure on his $14.85M cap figure is probably in the cards, but lock him into RB1 for another season in Cleveland.

Pending free agent Kareem Hunt saw his role drastically reduced in 2022, which could dampen his value on the open market. There’s a world where he’s still a $5M weapon in the right offense, and another where he’s $1.75M Boston Scott as the 3rd option somewhere else.

RB3 D’Ernest Johnson is also a pending free agent, likely headed for another at or near minimum salary.

Dallas Cowboys

Status: Change of the Guard

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $6.5M

Ezekiel Elliott’s mega deal still contains 4 years, $52.9M left on it - but none of it comes with an early guarantee. Dallas can free up at least $4.8M to move on from Zeke this March ($10.9M with a Post 6/1 designation). For 31 other franchises, this would be a slam dunk cap casualty, but Jerry Jones loves to keep his bands together.

Tony Pollard has done more than enough to warrant an RB1 role in this league, and is set for unrestricted free agency this March. He projects to a 3 year, $25M deal in our system. Will Zeke’s release make way for a new Pollard contract in Dallas?

Denver Broncos

Status: Wide Open

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $13.3M

Javonte Williams will be recovering from a torn ACL this winter, but still pencils in as the 2023 RB1, with 2 years, $3.3M non-guaranteed remaining on his rookie contract.

Chase Edmonds, acquired at the deadline from Miami carries a non-guaranteed $6M cap figure in 2023, and is a slam dunk release candidate. There are at least 2 RB holes to fill this offseason.

Detroit Lions

Status: Double Extensions?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $28.5M

D'Andre Swift will be entering a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1.7M. The 23 year old has missed a few games in each of his first 3 seasons, but still projects to a 4 year, $26M contract in our system.

Behind him (barely) Jamaal Williams is headed back to unrestricted free agency, with 1,000 yards from scrimmage and 14 TDs under his belt. He’d be headed for solid pay day if he weren’t a few months away from 28 years of age. He still gets a $4M valuation in our system for his efforts.

Green Bay Packers

Status: 1 and Done?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$9.4M

Aaron Jones just turned 28 last month, and none of 2 years, $28M remaining on his contract is currently guaranteed, but it’s hard to imagine the Packers punting on another weapon this March. His $20M cap hit for 2023 is a problem, but restructuring a $7M March roster bonus can ease that cost.

A.J. Dillon continues to put up consistently above average production as the RB1b in Green Bay, and he’ll enter a contract year in 2023 (non-guaranteed $1.3M). The yards per carry have gradually diminished a bit since he entered the league, but so has the Green Bay offense around him. It’ll be interesting to follow how the Packers handle their two backfield options over the next 18 months.

Houston Texans

Status: Value Plays

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $47M

2022 4th round pick Dameon Pierce seems to be the next value hit at the running back position, with 3 years, $2.9M remaining on his rookie deal.

Behind him, Dare Ogunbowale carries a $1.55M cap hit for 2023, with $1.4M that could be freed up as needed. Veteran Rex Burkhead is slated for unrestricted free agency.

Indianapolis Colts

Status: Taylor’s Team.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $27M

Jonathan Taylor’s 2022 was limited to just 11 games due to an ankle injury, and his yards per attempt dropped from 5.5 to 4.5 as well. Taylor becomes extension eligible this winter (projecting to a $13M per year deal), and as the lone bright spot on the offensive side of the ball, is now in the Christian McCaffrey/Panthers zone.

Zack Moss, acquired from Buffalo at the trade deadline, holds a non-guaranteed $1.1M salary in the final year of his rookie deal, 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Status: Extension Year for Etienne.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$18M

Travis Etienne’s rookie deal holds 2 years, $4.2M (guaranteed) + a 5th year option in 2025. He’ll become extension eligible for the first time after 2023.

Behind him, JaMycal Hasty is headed for restricted free agency, and with the Jags in cap trouble, could be considered a non-tender candidate. 2022 5th round pick Snoop Conner holds 3 years, $2.9M non-guaranteed remaining on his rookie deal.

Kansas City Chiefs

Status: Moving on from CEH

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $18M

Isiah Pacheco, the #251 pick in this past draft, posted nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage in his first campaign, and is the early favorite to snag the majority of 2023 snaps in KC. His 3 year, $2.9M non-guaranteed contract offers major upside value.

The Chiefs will need to decide on Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s 2024 option this coming May, and early signs point to a decline in that regard. His rookie contract holds a fully guaranteed $2M next season, and he enters the offseason as a potential trade candidate. Nearly 31 year old Jerick McKinnon was a viable weapon out of the backfield, and has to be considered for another contract this March. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Status: Jacobs’ About Face.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $33M

Nobody - not even the Raiders - saw this explosive season coming from Josh Jacobs, who’s going to win a rushing title in a contract year. He’s a franchise tag candidate (estimated $10M), and currently projects to a 4 year, $51M extension in our system.

33-year-old Brandon Bolden holds a $2.88M cap hit in 2023, $2.2M of which can be freed up in a release, while 2022 4th round pick Zamir White bring a non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M rookie contract into 2023.

Los Angeles Chargers

Status: Ekeler Still King. 

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$9.5M

Austin Ekeler remains a dominant versatile force in the league and will enter a contract year in 2023, set to earn a non guaranteed $5.75M. The Chargers have a few other mouths to feed (including QB1) this offseason, but a restructured extension for Ekeler, who will turn 28 next season, isn’t out of the question. He projects to a 3 year, $38M deal in our system.

Behind him, former 4th rounder Josh Kelley is entering the final year of his rookie contract, set to earn a non-guaranteed $1M, while 2022 4th round pick Isaiah Spiller brings a 3 year, $2.9M non-guaranteed rookie deal into 2023.

Los Angeles Rams

Status: Green Akers?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$2.6M

The once exiled Cam Akers found new life the finish off 2022, and now seems a sure bet to play out the final year of his rookie deal (non-guaranteed $1.4M), for the Rams next season.

2022 5th round pick Kyren Williams brings a non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M rookie deal into 2023, and should vie for the backup spot next season. There’s a weapon or two to be added here next March.

Miami Dolphins

Status: Crickets.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$6.9M

Raheem Mostert posted another 1,000+ yards from scrimmage campaign in 2022 and is slated for unrestricted free agency this March. The almost 31 year old is probably in the market for a deal around the $2.25M mark he cashed this season.

Jeff Wilson faced injuries and limited snaps when he was acquired from SF at the deadline, and he too will take his talents to the open market this spring. Will the Dolphins view the 27 year old as the better option going forward?

Salvon Ahmed, set for restricted free agency, is the only Dolphins running back under control for 2023.

Minnesota Vikings

Status: Still Cooking.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$7M

Dalvin Cook will enter Year 4 of a 6 year contract in Minnesota, with cap figures of $14.1M, $15.6M, & $13.5M to go respectively. The 27 year old has surpassed the 1,300 yards from scrimmage mark for the 4th straight season, finding the end zone 10+ times again as well. A simple base salary restructure can free up over $7.4M of cap space for the Vikings next season.

His RB2 for four seasons, Alexander Mattison, is now set for unrestricted free agency, holding a $2.25M valuation for his efforts thus far. There’s a world where a team views the 24 year old in a much bigger role.

2021 4th round pick Kene Nwangwu holds a non-guaranteed 2 year, $2M contract and should slide into the backup role next season.

New England Patriots

Status: Rhamondre’s Day.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $49M

Rhamondre Stevenson took the reins this season and his non-guaranteed 2 year, $2M remaining contract carries massive value potential. He’ll become extension eligible after 2023, but that doesn’t sound like the Patriots.

Damien Harris has shown true RB1 flashes in his 4 seasons with the Patriots, but he’ll head to the open market with red flags attached to him. Mathematically there’s a world where James Conner’s 3 year, $21M contract can be had, but with supply superseding demand this spring, his final price point likely comes in around half that.

2022 4th rounder Pierre Strong appears to have the goods to slot into the RB2 role going forward, holding a non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M contract going forward.

New Orleans Saints

Status: Kamara Getting Pricey

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$57M

Alvin Kamara will enter Year 4 of a 6 year contract in New Orleans, carrying cap hits of $16M, $16.9M, $27M respectively. $5M of his 2023 compensation is already fully guaranteed - but a potential suspension for an off-field issue could void those in the coming weeks. Assuming he sticks around, a full salary restructure can free up over $7.4M of cap space for the Saints in 2023.

Behind him, Eno Benjamin brings a non-guaranteed 1 year, $1M salary salary into 2023, while 33 year old Mark Ingram is once again headed for free agency.

New York Giants

Status: Tag, Sign, or Walk?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $56M

Saquon Barkley finally gave us that 1,500+ yards, 10+ TD season we’ve been craving since his rookie campaign back in 2018, putting himself in prime position to cash in this spring. The question of course is - how, and where? A $10M franchise tag isn’t out of the question, but that designation might need to be reserved for QB Daniel Jones this February. On a multi-year level, Barkley now projects to a 4 year, $50M extension.

Almost 28-year-old Matt Breida is heading back to the open market, while 2021 6th round pick Gary Brightwell will bring a 2 year, $2M non-guaranteed deal into the mix next season. For a lot of reasons, the Giants are a team to watch this spring.

New York Jets

Status: A Rare Surplus

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $15.9M

Breece Hall was on his way to a monster inaugural season before an ACL injury torpedoed his season. His 3 year, $4.6M remaining contract ($2.6M guaranteed) should be outstanding value for the up and coming Jets roster

2021 4th round pick Michael Carter (2 years, $1.9M) held his own in a reserve role, while Zonovan Knight (1 year, $870k) showed plenty of potential in a limited sample size.

With James Robinson, acquired at the deadline from Jacksonville, slated for restricted free agency this spring, do the Jets actually have too many horses in the barn for 2023?

Philadelphia Eagles

Status: Potential Budget Cuts

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $10.5M

Both Miles Sanders & Boston Scott are slated for unrestricted free agency next March, leaving Kenneth Gainwell (2 years, $1.9M), & Trey Sermon (2 years, $2.4M). Sanders put together his best rushing season by a mile, though his work as a receiver out of the backfield dipped a bit.

The Eagles have plenty of defensive holes to fill and a likely historic extension for Jalen Hurts to consider this spring. Will they be forced to go cheap at the RB position in 2023?

Pittsburgh Steelers

Status: All Good.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $13M

Najee Harris’ sophomore campaign won’t quite match the outstanding rookie season he posted, but he’s done plenty to supplant himself as one of the best young backs in the league. His rookie contract contains 2 years, $4.2M fully guaranteed plus an option in 2025, and he doesn’t become extension eligible until after the 2023 season.

UDFA Jaylen Warren stole the RB2 role away from other options this season and could be huge value for the Steelers with 2 years, $1.8M + restricted free agency in front of him still. Benny Snell Jr. is slated for unrestricted free agency this March.

San Francisco 49ers

Status: Worth It.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $14.8M

Christian McCaffrey was the big move at the trade deadline - and he hasn’t disappointed one bit. None of the $36M remaining over the final three seasons of his contract is fully guaranteed, so the Niners can operate as needed going forward. A simple base salary restructure + two void years can free up $8.5M of cap space in 2023 if necessary. McCaffrey’s role further amplifies with uncertainty at the QB position staring SF in the face.

Elijah Mitchell missed the majority of 2022 with an MCL sprain, but should bring excellent value in a complementary role to CMC with 2 years, $1.9M non-guaranteed remaining on his rookie contract. While UDFA Jordan Mason has shown well in a limited sample set, averaging 6.6 yards per attempt thus far.

Seattle Seahawks

Status: Keep Ken Healthy

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $49.4M

If he can stay healthy, Kenneth Walker III will remain a huge focal point in the Seahawks’ offense. His rookie deal contains 3 years, $4.2M ($2M guaranteed) through 2025.

Behind him, DeeJay Dallas (1 year, $1M) remains the only other back signed into 2023, while Rashaad Penny & Travis Homer are slated for unrestricted free agency.

Signing a vet for depth and injury protection purposes seems relevant here.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Status: Potential Buyout?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$43M

Leonard Fournette signed a $21M contract last March that fully guaranteed $2M of his 2023 salary. Another $2M is set to lock in on March 19th, all but securing the 28 year old for next season. If the Bucs really want to move on, they can take on a $5M dead cap ($2M cash) and release him prior to March 19th, freeing up $3.5M of cap space. Otherwise, a full base salary restructure can free up $4.3M of cap space for the Bucs for 2023.

Behind (aside) him, 2022 3rd round pick Rachaad White put up formidable numbers in his rookie campaign, and likely finds more touches next season. His rookie deal contains 3 years, $3.5M non-guaranteed through 2025. 2020 3rd rounder Ke'Shawn Vaughn barely found the field in 2022, putting his $1.46M cap hit ($1.2M to be saved) on heavy notice.

Tennessee Titans

Status: Long Live the King

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$17.5M

28 year old Derrick Henry damn near posted 2,000 yards from scrimmage again, and he found the end zone as much as ever. A career high in fumbles is certainly worrisome, and a $16.3M cap hit for 2023 is definitely a problem, but it seems extremely likely that Henry is back in Tennessee next season in some capacity. A simple base salary restructure + 4 void years can free up $7.5M of cap space for the Titans - who may go one step further and just lock in their workhorse to a new contract altogether.

2022 4th rounder Hassan Haskins (3 years, $2.9M non-guaranteed), & Julius Chestnut (1 year, $870k) could figure into the mix next season, while veterans Dontrell Hilliard & Trenton Cannon are slated for unrestricted free agency.

Washington Commanders

Status: Multiple Changes?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $19.4M

Brian Robinson (3 years, $3.5M non-guaranteed), Antonio Gibson (1 year, $1.2M non-guaranteed) & J.D. McKissic (1 year, $2.75M non-guaranteed) are all under contract for 2023, but the Commanders should be looking for more production out of this position going forward. Finding a trade partner for Gibson probably makes the most sense, while a $250,000 roster bonus for McKissic due March 19th could mean an early decision is made there as well.

CANNOT BE TRADED UNTIL JANUARY 15

Players who signed free agent contracts with Bird or Early Bird rights who re-signed with their prior team + that team was over the cap + player received a salary raise greater than 20% are not eligible to be traded until January 15, 2023. 

Nicolas Claxton (BKN)

Nicolas Claxton signed a 2 year $17.25 million contract on July 7, 2022.

Cody Martin (CHA)

Cody Martin signed a 4 year $31.36 million contract on July 6, 2022.

Kevon Looney (GSW)

Kevon Looney signed a 3 year $22.5 million contract on July 10, 2022.

Jae’Sean Tate (HOU)

Jae’Sean Tate signed a 3 year $20.63 million contract on July 6, 2022.

Nicolas Batum (LAC)

Nicolas Batum signed a 2 year $22.55 million contract on July 6, 2022.

Tyus Jones (MEM)

Tyus Jones signed a 2 year $29 million contract on July 6, 2022.

Victor Oladipo (MIA)

Victor Oladipo signed a 2 year $18.2 million contract on July 6, 2022.

Caleb Martin (MIA)

Caleb Martin signed a 2 year $20.4 million contract on July 6, 2022.

Dewayne Dedmon (MIA)

Dewayne Dedmon signed a 2 year $9.02 million contract on July 6, 2022.

Bobby Portis (MIL)

Bobby Portis signed a 4 year $48.58 million contract on July 6, 2022.

Mitchell Robinson (NYK)

Mitchell Robinson signed a 4 year $60 million contract on July 12, 2022.

Luguentz Dort (OKC)

Luguentz Dort signed a 5 year $82.5 million contract on July 6, 2022.

Mohamed Bamba (ORL)

Mohamed Bamba signed a 2 year $20.6 million contract on July 7, 2022.

Deandre Ayton (PHX)

Deandre Ayton signed a 4 year $132.93 million contract on July 18, 2022.

Anfernee Simons (POR)

Anfernee Simons signed a 4 year $100 million contract on July 6, 2022.

Chris Boucher (TOR)

Chris Boucher signed a 3 year $35.25 million contract on July 7, 2022.

CANNOT BE TRADED DURING REGULAR SEASON

Players that signed a free agent contract after November 9, 2022 or a veteran extension contract after August 9, 2022 are legally and contractually unable to be traded at any point during the regular season. Free agent signings come with a 3-month trade restriction from the day of signing. Certain veteran extension signings, that are above the extend-and-trade rules, come with a 6-month trade restriction. Players that signed one of these contracts after those specific dates listed above would have their trade restriction lifted beyond the NBA Trade Deadline on February 9th. 

Therefore, these players…

• Cannot be traded during the regular season at all, 
• Team/player cannot negotiate a trade,
• Player cannot request a trade,
• Team cannot force a trade,
• They cannot be traded for any reason, 
• Period

For example, LeBron James purposefully signed his veteran contract extension on August 18 knowing he would be unable to be traded at any point during the 2022-23 NBA regular season. LeBron cannot request a trade. LeBron and the Lakers cannot negotiate a trade. The Lakers cannot go behind his back and trade him without his consent. 

LeBron James (LAL)

LeBron James signed a 2 year, $97.13 million veteran contract extension on August 18, 2022. 

What is his trade restriction date?

February 18, 2022. 

This comes AFTER the February 9th NBA Trade Deadline. He cannot be traded during the 2022-23 regular season.

When can James actually/legally be traded? 

If you want to talk about hypotheticals of trading LeBron James, he can technically be traded (a) immediately after the last 2022-23 NBA regular season game if the Lakers are eliminated from Play-In or Playoff, or (b) immediately after the Lakers are eliminated from the Play-In or Playoffs. The Lakers’ last regular season game is April 9, 2023; therefore the earliest LeBron could be traded is April 10, 2023.

For salary matching purposes, LeBron’s 2022-23 salary of $44.47 million would be used instead of the 2023-24 salary. However, the Lakers are only allowed to have a trade partner (or partners) with teams that are in a similar situation of already being eliminated from the NBA playoffs.

Kemba Walker (DAL)

Kemba Walker signed a 1 year, $2.2 million minimum salary free agent contract on November 29, 2022. 

What is his trade restriction date?

March 1, 2023. 

This comes AFTER the February 9th NBA Trade Deadline. He cannot be traded during the 2022-23 regular season.

Maxi Kleber (DAL)

Maxi Kleber signed a 3 year, $33 million veteran contract extension on September 8, 2022. 

What is his trade restriction date?

March 8, 2023. 

This comes AFTER the February 9th NBA Trade Deadline. He cannot be traded during the 2022-23 regular season.

When can Kleber actually/legally be traded? 

He cannot be traded until (a) immediately after the last 2022-23 NBA regular season game if the Mavericks are eliminated from Play-In or Playoff, or (b) immediately after the Mavericks are eliminated from the Play-In or Playoffs.

Stanley Johnson (SAS)

Stanley Johnson signed a 1 year, $1.67 million minimum salary free agent contract on December 13, 2022. 

What is his trade restriction date?

March 13, 2023. 

This comes AFTER the February 9th NBA Trade Deadline. He cannot be traded during the 2022-23 regular season.

C.J. McCollum (NOP)

C.J. McCollum signed a 2 year, $64 million veteran contract extension on September 26, 2022. 

What is his trade restriction date?

March 26, 2023. 

This comes AFTER the February 9th NBA Trade Deadline. He cannot be traded during the 2022-23 regular season.

When can McCollum actually/legally be traded? 

He cannot be traded until (a) immediately after the last 2022-23 NBA regular season game if the Pelicans are eliminated from Play-In or Playoff, or (b) immediately after the Pelicans are eliminated from the Play-In or Playoffs.

Dean Wade (CLE)

C.J. McCollum signed a 3 year, $18.5 million veteran contract extension on September 27, 2022. 

What is his trade restriction date?

March 27, 2023. 

This comes AFTER the February 9th NBA Trade Deadline. He cannot be traded during the 2022-23 regular season.

When can Wade actually/legally be traded? 

He cannot be traded until (a) immediately after the last 2022-23 NBA regular season game if the Cavaliers are eliminated from Play-In or Playoff, or (b) immediately after the Cavaliers are eliminated from the Play-In or Playoffs.

Larry Nance Jr. (NOP)

C.J. McCollum signed a 3 year, $18.5 million veteran contract extension on October 3, 2022. 

What is his trade restriction date?

April 4, 2023. 

This comes AFTER the February 9th NBA Trade Deadline. He cannot be traded during the 2022-23 regular season.

When can Nance actually/legally be traded? 

He cannot be traded until (a) immediately after the last 2022-23 NBA regular season game if the Pelicans are eliminated from Play-In or Playoff, or (b) immediately after the Pelicans are eliminated from the Play-In or Playoffs.

Andrew Wiggins (GSW)

Andrew Wiggins signed a 4 year, $109 million veteran contract extension on October 15, 2022. 

What is his trade restriction date?

April 15, 2023. 

This comes AFTER the February 9th NBA Trade Deadline. He cannot be traded during the 2022-23 regular season.

When can Wiggins actually/legally be traded? 

He cannot be traded until (a) immediately after the last 2022-23 NBA regular season game if the Warriors are eliminated from Play-In or Playoff, or (b) immediately after the Warriors are eliminated from the Play-In or Playoffs.

CANNOT BE TRADED UNTIL JULY 2023

The following players signed super-max contract extensions during the 2022 offseason. By signing this type of contract these players are unable to be traded for 1 year from the date they signed the extension.

Devin Booker (PHX)

Devin Booker signed an estimated 4 year, $224.22 million super-max contract extension on July 6, 2022. 

When could Booker legally be traded?

July 6, 2023. 

Booker signed a super-max contract with Phoenix which comes with a 1-year trade restriction.

Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)

Karl-Anthony Towns signed an estimated 4 year, $224.22 million super-max contract extension on July 7, 2022. 

When could Towns legally be traded?

July 7, 2023. 

Towns signed a super-max contract with Minnesota which comes with a 1-year trade restriction.

Nikola Jokic (DEN)

Devin Booker signed an estimated 5 year, $272 million super-max contract extension on July 8, 2022. 

When could Jokic legally be traded?

July 8, 2023. 

Jokic signed a super-max contract with Denver which comes with a 1-year trade restriction.

CAN BE TRADED, BUT HIGHLY UNLIKELY

The following players signed rookie scale extensions during the 2022 NBA offseason. 

When could these players legally be traded?

Anytime, however…

Players that sign rookie scale extensions come with a “Poison Pill” limitation that is placed on their contracts until July 1, 2023. This limitation makes it highly unlikely that any of these players would be traded because the mathematical formula for salary matching purposes treats these player’s salaries differently than a standard player without this limitation. 

De'Andre Hunter (ATL)

De’Andre Hunter signed a 4 year, $90 million contract on October 17, 2022.

Darius Garland (CLE)

Darius Garland signed a 5 year, $194.3 million contract on July 8, 2022.

Jordan Poole (GSW)

Jordan Poole signed a 5 year, $128 million contract on October 15, 2022.

Kevin Porter Jr. (HOU)

Jordan Poole signed a 4 year, $63.44 million contract on October 17, 2022.

Ja Morant (MEM)

Ja Morant signed a 5 year, $194.3 million contract on July 6, 2022.

Brandon Clarke (MEM)

Brandon Clarke signed a 4 year, $50 million contract on October 16, 2022.

Tyler Herro (MIA)

Tyler Herro signed a 4 year, $120 million contract on October 2,  2022.

Zion Williamson (NOP)

Zion Williamson signed a 5 year, $194.3 million contract on July 6, 2022.

R.J. Barrett (NYK)

Ja Morant signed a 4 year, $107 million contract on September 1, 2022.

Nassir Little (POR)

Ja Morant signed a 4 year, $28 million contract on October 17, 2022.

As we enter January and the back-half of the NBA schedule where are dates and deadlines to know.

January 5

Teams can now sign standard 10-day contracts.

The following are the cash amounts players would earn if they were to sign a 10-day contract.

• YOE 0: $58,493
• YOE 1: $94,136
• YOE 2: $105,522
• YOE 3: $109,318
• YOE 4: $113,114
• YOE 5: $122,602
• YOE 6: $132,091
• YOE 7: $141,580
• YOE 8: $151,069
• YOE 9: $151,821
• YOE 10: $167,003

Any player that signs with 2+ years of experience will hold a cap hit of $105,522.

Players can sign a maximum of two (2) 10-day contracts with a team before needing to sign a standard Rest-of-Season contract with that team.

January 10

Non-Guaranteed Salaries

Non-guaranteed salaries for 2022-23 season become fully guaranteed. Technically, January 7th is the real date to watch as that is the last day players with non-guaranteed salary can be waived without incurring the full salary as dead cap/cash with a team.

Players who this will effect:

• Vit Krejci (ATL), $1.5M
• Tyrese Martin (ATL), $1.0M
• Justin Jackson (BOS), $2.1M
• Luke Kornet (BOS), $2.1M
• Noah Vonleh (BOS), $2.4M
• Markieff Morris (BKN), $2.9M
• Edmond Sumner (BKN), $1.9M
• Dennis Smith Jr. (CHA), $2.1M
• Lamar Stevens (CLE), $1.7M
• Kemba Walker (DAL), $2.2M
• Garrison Mathews (HOU), $2M
• Oshae Brissett (IND), $1.8M
• James Johnson (IND), $2.9M
• Wenyen Gabriel (LAL), $1.8M
• Austin Reaves (LAL), $1.5M
• Danny Green (MEM), $10M
• Haywood Highsmith (MIA), $1.7M
• Nathan Knight (MIN), $1.8M
• Jaylen Nowell (MIN), $1.9M
• Naz Reid (MIN), $1.9M
• Austin Rivers (MIN), $2,9M
• Ryan Arcidiacono (NYK), $2.1M
• Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk (NYK), $1.9M
• Jose Alvarado (NOP), $1.5M
• Naji Marshall (NOP), $1.7M
• Jonathan Isaac (ORL), $17.4M
• Jock Landale (PHX), $1.5M
• Matthew Dellavedova (SAC), $2.6M
• Chima Moneke (SAC), $1.0M
• Stanley Johnson (SAS), $1.6M
• KZ Okpala (SAS), $1.9M

Exceptions

Salary exceptions, such as mid-level and bi-annual exceptions, become prorated each remaining day of the season. Each amount will be reducted by 1/174th per day starting on January 10th.

January 15

Trade Eligible

Majority of the players that signed free agent contracts were trade eligible on December 15th. The remainder of the free agent contracts that were signed during the offseason will not become trade eligible on January 15th.

Players who qualify:

• Nicolas Claxton (BKN)
• Cody Martin (CHA)
• Kevon Looney (GSW)
• Jae’Sean Tate (HOU)
• Nicolas Batum (LAC)
• Tyus Jones (MEM)
• Victor Oladipo (MIA)
• Caleb Martin (MIA)
• Dewayne Dedmon (MIA)
• Bobby Portis (MIL)
• Mitchell Robinson (NYK)
• Luguentz Dort (OKC)
• Mohamed Bamba (ORL)
• Deandre Ayton (PHX)
• Anfernee Simons (POR)
• Chris Boucher (TOR)

Disabled Player Exception

January 15^th is the last day teams can apply for the Disabled Player Exception. The Celtics (Danilo Gallinari) and Thunder (Chet Holmgren) are the only teams to have received the DPE this season. These teams have until March 10th to use the Disabled Player exception.

Two-Way

Last day to sign a player to a Two-Way contract.

January 20

All two-way contracts become guaranteed for the remainder of the season.

February 9

NBA Trade Deadline at 3PM

February 28

Last day players can renegotiate their contract. This would apply to the possible Myles Turner “Renegotiate-and-Extend” Keith Smith mentions in his Next Contract Series piece.

March 1

Playoff Eligibility Waiver Deadline

Any player waived after March 1^st will no longer be playoff eligible if signed with another team.

March 10

Last day for teams to use the Disabled Player exception

Christian Wood is putting together his best season in the NBA this year with the Dallas Mavericks. Sure, he scored more points and grabbed more rebounds in seasons with the Houston Rockets, but the combination of efficiency and production, along with improved defense, from Wood makes this season is his best one yet.

Wood opened the year coming off the Mavs bench, as they prioritized defense and screen-setting (and maybe keeping a soon-to-be-extension-eligible player’s numbers down a bit) at the center spot to start the season. But over the last seven games, Wood has started at the five and Dallas has taken off. The Mavericks have won five straight, following two close losses, with Wood as a starter.

During those seven games, Wood has averaged 18.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.7 blocks, two assists and a steal per game. Luka Doncic is driving the Mavs success, but Wood is more than just a passenger along for the ride.

This career-best production for Wood comes at a critical time. He’s in the final season of the three-year, $41 million deal he signed a part of a sign-and-trade to the Rockets from the Detroit Pistons. Wood recently became fully extension-eligible with Dallas. He could also wait to cash in as an unrestricted free agent this summer.

Let’s take a look at what Christian Wood’s next contract could look like.

The Veteran Extension

Because enough time has now passed since the trade that sent Wood from Houston to Dallas, he’s eligible to sign a full veteran extension with the Mavericks. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $17,180,951
• 2024-25: $18,555,427
• 2025-26: $19,929,903
• 2026-27: $21,304,379
• Total: four years, $76,970,660

That’s a 120% bump off of Wood’s current $14.3 million contract for this season in first-year salary. He can then get 8% raises off that new salary for the subsequent years.

$77 million over four years is an average annual value (AAV) of $19.25 million. For this season, that figure would rank at 69th in the NBA, nestled between Lonzo Ball ($19.5 million) and Caris LeVert ($18.8 million). Among centers, $19.25 million would be 10th in the NBA this season, behind Jarrett Allen ($20 million) and Clint Capela ($18.7 million). Both overall and among centers, that probably about where Wood ranks.

It’s not bad money by any means. But could Wood do better in free agency after a big close to the season?

Re-signing with the Mavericks as a free agent

Dallas has full Bird rights for Christian Wood. That means they can offer him a max deal if they want. That contract would look like this:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the full 30% of the projected $134 million cap for 2023-24, with 8% raises tacked on.

Even the most ardent Christian Wood fan would probably agree that’s too rich. An average salary of $46.6 million would make Wood the highest paid center in the league and the third highest paid player in the entire NBA this season.

That’s not happening.

Signing with another team as a free agent

Let’s say Christian Wood and the Mavericks are ready to part ways this summer. There are nine teams that currently project to have cap space this offseason. A handful could be in play for Wood’s services. Here’s the max an opposing team could offer Wood this summer:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $42,210,000
• 2025-26: $44,220,000
• 2026-27: $46,320,000
• Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s the same 30% of the cap in first-year salary, but the max another team can offer Wood is four years and 5% raises.

If you compare this deal to what Wood can extend for right now, it’s nearly $100 million more in total salary. But, even at a lesser figure than his max with Dallas, $43.2 million AAV is still too rich for Wood.

The Extend-and-Trade or Extension After a Trade

This isn’t a realistic option for Christian Wood, and it’s part of the reason he hasn’t extended with Dallas yet. In an extend-and-trade, a player can only add two seasons to their deal and they can only get a 5% bump in first-year salary over their current salary. Here’s what that would look like for Wood:

• 2023-24: $15,033,332
• 2024-25: $16,235,999

$31.2 million over two seasons simply isn’t enough for a player of Wood’s value.

It’s also not realistic to expect Wood to be traded and then to extend for the full amount he can extend for with Dallas. If Wood was traded, he’d have to wait six months to extend for more than he can be offered as part of an extend-and-trade. That would take us to the start of free agency. Thus, any team trading for Christian Wood now would do so under the idea they could re-sign him in free agency.

It’s also fair to ask: Why would Dallas trade Wood? The Mavericks wouldn’t just give away their talented big man. But if they can use his contract, plus another one or two, to get that second star they’ve been looking for alongside Luka Doncic, Dallas would do it. The Mavs tend to be aggressive, as witnessed a season ago when they traded Kristaps Porzingis to the Washington Wizards to break up his max contract into two smaller, easier-traded ones.

Summary

Christian Wood’s value is a bit tricky to peg. At worst, Wood is an offense-leaning center, but a very good one. But he’s shown this season that he can be more than that. On a team with something to play for, Wood is playing better on the defensive end of the floor than he ever has.

He’s also able to slide over and play the four, alongside the right center. That’s a valuable skill, because it increases Wood’s versatility and doesn’t pigeon hole him lineup-wise.

So, what’s a five, who can play some four, that can get you 20 points per game with solid rebounding, improving passing and defense worth? The answer is somewhere around the $19.25 AAV that the Mavericks can offer Wood in an extension.

This season, 10 centers are making more than $20 million. That number climbs to 12 if you include Kristaps Porzingis and Kevin Love, who both log a lot of minutes at the five.

So, somewhere between $19 and $20 million doesn’t seem unreasonable for Christian Wood, on its face. The challenge then becomes what the free agent market will come to bear for him.

As we said earlier, nine teams project to have enough cap space to offer Wood at least what Dallas can offer him via a veteran extension. Of those nine teams, we can eliminate a few, right off the bat. The Houston Rockets and Detroit Pistons have been there, done that. The Orlando Magic are already overstuffed with big men.

That leaves a group that includes Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers, Los Angeles Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz. Indiana and San Antonio have their own free agent centers (Myles Turner and Jakob Poeltl, respectively) to deal with. Charlotte seems like they are going to use some of their cap flexibility to re-sign Miles Bridges, and they may not end up having space at all.

That leaves the Lakers, who are probably thinking bigger than Christian Wood in free agency, the Thunder and Jazz. At this point, the Jazz are a mystery box. Who knows what their plans are? Wood makes a lot of sense for the Thunder, but only if they are ready to start pushing things forward in terms of contending for a playoff spot.

There’s also the matter of the center position being the deepest of all of the positions in free agency. As mentioned, Myles Turner and Jakob Poeltl could be free agents this summer. They’ll likely be joined by Kristaps Porzingis, Nikola Vucevic and Brook Lopez, along with several lower-priced veteran options.

It’s at this point that we should mention the possibility of a sign-and-trade for Wood and Dallas. Wood can’t get any more money via a sign-and-trade than he could get by signing with a team outright, but as a non-max player, that’s not really an issue. If there is a team willing to give Wood $20 million or more AAV, they can do it. A sign-and-trade would also help the capped-out Mavs return something of value, as opposed to losing Wood for nothing.

Putting it all together, the $77 million extension over four years is probably fair value for Christian Wood. He might be able to get more than by pushing things to free agency, but it won’t be significantly more. For a player who has made around $45 million in total salary in the first seven years of his career, it could be hard to pass up $19+ million per season.

The real deal may fall somewhere outside the four-year, $77 million extension. It’s been suggested that Wood won’t sign a four-year extension. Maybe he does a shorter-term deal, but still for the max he can extend for with Dallas. Two years and $35.7 million, or a two-plus-one deal of nearly $56 million are both reasonable too.

No matter what happens. Christian Wood is going to get a nice new contract. If it’s an extension with the Mavericks, don’t expect that to come until after the trade deadline. Dallas will exhaust all of their trade options first, as extending Wood for big money would come with a six-month trade restriction.

If a new contract comes in free agency, Wood will probably get north of $20 million AAV, either through a sign-and-trade or an outright signing with a cap space team. And that’s a contract that should hold its value for whatever length it spans for the talented, versatile big man.

The Orlando Magic visited the Detroit Pistons on Dec 28, 2022. An altercation between Mo Wagner and Killian Hayes, who were fighting for a lose ball, quickly escalated as Hamidou Diallo actively involved himself which then cleared the benches. Wagner, Hayes and Diallo were all ejected from the game and have been assessed suspensions for the altercation.

Per the NBA, Wagner received a 3-game suspension, Hayes received a 2-games suspension and Diallo received a 1-game suspension for their involvement in the altercation. Eight other Orlando Magic players were given a 1-game suspension for leaving the bench during the altercation. Not that either of these teams will reach the luxury tax threshold this season, all luxury tax salaries for suspended players will receive a reduction: 50% of each fined amount. 

Technical Foul Fines

Killian Hayes: $2,000

Hamdiou Diallo: $2,000

Cole Anthony: $2,000

Gary Harris: $2,000

Ejection Fines

Killian Hayes: $2,000

Hamidou Diallo: $2,000

Moritz Wagner: $2,000

Suspension Fines

3-game Suspension

Killian Hayes: $120,781

2-game Suspension

Moritz Wagner: $25,913

1-game Suspension

Hamidou Diallo: $35,862

Wendell Carter Jr: $97,586

Gary Harris: $89,655

Mo Bamba: $71,034

Franz Wagner: $36,264

Cole Anthony: $24,922

RJ Hampton: $16,640

Admiral Schofield: $3,510

Kevon Harris: $3,510

Fines Total

$539,677

Related

NBA Fines & Suspension Tracker

Russell Wilson’s splashdown in Denver went about as poorly as possible, forcing many to ask the question - what now?

DISCLAIMER: The only correct answer to this question is, hire a new coach, and ride this thing out for a few more years. However, for the sake of answering all of the possible questions - we’ll entertain all options below.

The Basics

Wilson’s contract contains 6 years, $239M remaining. As of today, $67M of that cash is fully guaranteed, with another $40M of bonus proration bringing us to a real-time dead cap total of $107M. Wilson’s cap figure for 2023 is currently set at $22M (less than 10% of a projected $225M league salary cap).

(Again, this is all for hypothetical purposes only. Wilson will 100% be back in Denver next season with hopes that a new coaching staff can be the magic wand to immediately fix everything)

A March 2023 Release

$25M of base salary accelerates, $42M of unexercised option bonus accelerates, $40M of signing bonus proration accelerates.
2023 Dead Cap Hit: $107M ($67M of which is straight cash)

A Post June 1st Release

$25M of base salary accelerates, $22M of future unexercised option bonus accelerates, $60M of bonus proration is split between 2023/2024. They’d still owe him $67M cash, but the 2023 option bonus would have been exercised, allowing it to prorate for cap purposes.
Dead Cap Hits
2023: $61M
2024: $46M

A March 2023 Trade

Denver takes on $40M of 2023 dead cap if they trade Wilson before his $20M option bonus is exercised.

A new (crazy) team would acquire cap hits of:
2023: $12M
2024: $25.4M
2025: $45.4M
2026: $48.4M
2027: $53.4M
2028: $54.4M

Or cash payouts of:
2023: $28M (guaranteed)
2024: $39M (guaranteed)
2025: $37M (guarantees in 2024)
2026: $40M
2027: $45M
2028: $50M

An Early March 2024 Release

$39M of base salary + $46M of bonus proration.
2024 Dead Cap Hit: $85M ($39M cash)

A Post June 1st Designation Release in 2024

$39M of base salary + $14M of bonus proration in 2024, $32M of 2025 bonus proration.
Dead Cap Hits
2024: $53M ($39M cash)
2025: $32M

A March 2024 Trade

Denver takes on $46M of 2023 dead cap if they trade Wilson before his $22M option bonus is exercised.

A new team would acquire cap hits of:
2024: $21.4M
2025: $41.4M
2026: $44.4M
2027: $49.4M
2028: $54.4M

Or cash payouts of:
2024: $39M (guaranteed)
2025: $37M (guarantees in 2024)
2026: $40M
2027: $45M
2028: $50M

Our Current Stance

This is a non-conversation. It’s possible we get to March 2025, and things are still as bad as they are today, and the Broncos convince the owner to pay him $37M cash to go away - but even then, even three Marches from now, we’re talking about $86.6M of dead cap.

A Post June 1st release in 2025 would mean dead cap hits of $55.4M in 2025, and another $31.2M in 2026.

The cleaner solution - the way this contract was actually meant to exist - is that the Broncos move on after the 2025 season, taking on a $31.2M dead cap hit, saving $27.2M of space, and continuing on with their lives.

If that feels like forever from now - it’s because it is.

As the 2023 NFL offseason closes in, Spotrac's Positional Breakdown series kicks off with a deep dive into the financial statuses of each team's quarterback position, including rostered players, remaining term & guarantees, and stability at the starting & backup roles.

RELATED: RB ANALYSIS

Arizona Cardinals

Status: Money Locked.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $22.7M

The GM who was extended prior to extending the QB this past summer is now likely to be fired. That’s about all you need to know as to how the quarterback situation is simmering in Arizona. Kyler Murray’s deal holds 6 years, $235M remaining on it, with 5 years, $189M all but fully guaranteed.

Colt McCoy remains under contract for 2023 on a 1 year, $3.75M ($5M cap hit) deal. If Murray’s ACL recovery carries into next fall, look for a slight redo on this contract to include performance bonuses to better reflect his temporary QB1 role.

Atlanta Falcons

Status: Wide Open.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $69M

Marcus Mariota’s tenure in Atlanta certainly feels over (left team + knee surgery). $12M of his $14.5M cap hit for 2023 can come off the books per a trade or release.

Desmond Ridder’s 3 year, $3.5M remaining rookie contract (non-guaranteed) will certainly keep him in the mix to compete for the 2023 job, though it certainly stands to reason that the Falcons will bring another option onto the roster in some capacity next spring.

Baltimore Ravens

Status: Big Payday or Big Trade.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $44M

Lamar Jackson has been Lamar Jackson this year, despite the annual tradition that is a lack of wide receiver talent + a slew of injuries across the Ravens’ roster. Jackson’s rookie contract will expire this winter, putting him in line for a franchise tag this coming February, almost certainly of the exclusive variety. This exclusive tag for QBs currently projects to cost north of $45M, and eliminates the possibility for other teams to negotiate with Jackson during his tagged window. He projects to a 6 year, $246M extension in our system currently, though anything short of Kyler Murray’s $189M guaranteed wouldn’t seem appropriate.

The Ravens don’t currently have a QB under contract for 2023.

Buffalo Bills

Status: Happily Locked In.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$3.5M

Josh Allen’s deal carries 6 years, $217.5M through 2028 with early guarantees built in through the 2025 season. His $39.7M cap hit for 2023 4th in the league, and probably gets restructured in the coming months, despite GM Brandon Beane’s reluctance to do so in many cases. Buffalo can free up over $21M with a full base salary restructure to Allen.

Allen is the only QB currently under contract in Buffalo for the 2023 campaign, as Case Keenum becomes an unrestricted free agent next March. A reunion there seems good for both parties.

Carolina Panthers

Status: Desperate & Looking.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $1.9M

Three quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker) split snaps for the Panthers in 2022. None of them are under contract in Carolina next year. Matt Corral (3 years, $3.5M non-guaranteed) will enter 2023 as the lone QB under contract in Carolina as he recovers from a Lisfranc injury.

It’s plausible that Sam Darnold has earned himself a small extension to compete for the 2023 job, while a Top 10 draft pick will also be in play here. Despite a lack of rostered QBs, the Panthers project to carry less than $2M of Top 51 cap space into March right now thanks to large (but restructurable) hits for DJ Moore, Taylor Moton, & Shaq Thompson + nearly $30M of dead cap.

Chicago Bears

Status: It’s Not Me, It’s You

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $120M

Justin Fields quieted a lot of doubters this year, as a new coaching regime has at least started to unlock his super powers. There’s still plenty of fringe around the edges to smooth out, but the focus this offseason won’t be on the QB position (but literally on every other area of the roster). Contractually, Fields holds 2 years, $5.5M + a 5th year option, and becomes extension eligible after the 2023 season.

Trevor Siemian signed a 2 year deal this past March, leaving him on a 1 year, $1.965M deal ($2.465M cap hit) for 2023. He’s recovering from oblique surgery, so adding a body or two here definitely makes sense next spring.

Cincinnati Bengals

Status: GoFundMe.Bengals.com

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $48.8M

After a sluggish (recovering from appendectomy) start, Joe Burrow has rounded back into big boy status, and becomes a slam dunk to cash in this coming offseason. His representation should be pointing directly at Deshaun Watson’s deal with the Browns as the only correct offer, though the Bengals seem like the last franchise in the league that would be willing to go that route. He’s a 6 year, $260M player in our system, though another Super Bowl appearance this season could shatter that ceiling. It should be noted that Burrow’s rookie contract contains 1 year, $5.5M + a 5th year option remaining, so while an extension isn’t at all required - it kind of feels required.

Current backup Brandon Allen is slated for unrestricted free agency next year, and could be asked back at around his previous $1.5M mark.

Cleveland Browns

Status: Front Office Seeking Men in Black Neuralyzer

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $3.7M

2022 was always going to be weird. Even before Deshaun Watson was acquired, the turmoil with Baker Mayfield heading into the offseason was boiling over, and every team in the league knew it. Every decision thereafter can (and will) be questioned, though it’s only fair to give this a little time to simmer. Don’t worry - Watson’s contract offers plenty of it, as the 27 year old holds 4 years, $184M fully guaranteed through 2026, including an historic $54.9M cap hit in 2023. A full base salary restructure can drop it down to $19M, but there will be short-term future pain in pushing that cap out.

Kellen Mond (2 years, $2.4M non-guaranteed) is the only other rostered QB in 2023 currently. 

Dallas Cowboys

Status: Fine.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $6.6M

Dak Prescott’s deal has 2 years, $65M remaining on it through 2024 and is fully guaranteed at $31M for the 2023 season. His $49.1M cap hit next year ranks 2nd only to Deshaun Watson, and is very likely subjected to restructure. A full base salary conversion can free up over $23M of cap space for the Cowboys next year. Unless Dallas tries to get ahead of things right now (not entirely crazy), a new deal for Dak Prescott will be a focal point this time next season.

Youngster Will Grier carries a non-guaranteed $1.08M salary into 2023 and could very well become the new QB2 in Dallas if Cooper Rush finds a better situation next March.

Denver Broncos

Status: Cart Before the Horse

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $15.4M

I know, I know, they gave up two firsts, two seconds, a late round swap and 3 players to acquire Russell Wilson - so an extension was all but necessary to justify the trade price, but it bears repeating for the 109th time: The Broncos could have paid Wilson $24M for 2022, then been faced with a non-guaranteed $27M for 2023. Instead, it was $57M cash this year and 3 years, $104M guaranteed now through 2025. Denver will try to band-aid this contract with a new coaching staff for 2023, but band-aid it will be.

Current backup Brett Rypien is slated for unrestricted free agency and with Wilson’s career falling apart, Denver could look to bring in a legitimate QB2 option for the next few seasons. 

Detroit Lions

Status: 2023 Fine (I think).

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $28.5M

The advanced metrics (or advanced coaches) have never liked Jared Goff, but he passed more than a few eye tests with the Lions this season. The 2 years, $52.2M (non-guaranteed) left on his deal doesn’t feel too daunting, especially for a team clearly turning a corner offensively. A few splashy draft picks & free agent signings on the defensive side of the ball, and Detroit could be a legitimate middle of the pack NFC contender.

Current backup Nate Sudfeld is slated for unrestricted free agency this March. Will the Lions draft a potential “next man up” in April?

Green Bay Packers

Status: It’s Just Easier To Assume He’s Returning

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $2.7M

I’m just going to keep this really easy and assume that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers love each other and aren’t even considering a divorce. His $31.6M cap hit for 2023 is tolerable, and the $59.15M cash to be earned is ridiculous, but happening (somewhere - I mean definitely in Green Bay).

Current backup Jordan Love becomes an instant must-watch candidate next March, as rumors have already swirled that it’s play me or trade me for 2023. The latter seems inevitable. Love holds a 1 year, $2.2M (fully guaranteed) contract + a 5th year option for 2024 that must be decided on by May 2023.

Houston Texans

Status: Bryce Young

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $47M

Davis Mills is probably going to get a few contracts as a viable backup in the league, but he was always a placeholder to get this franchise to the #1 pick. Bryce Young (assumedly) will sign a fully guaranteed 4 year contract + a 5th year option for 2027 next summer.

Both Kyle Allen & Jeff Driskel are slated for unrestricted free agency next March, but bringing in a QB with experience (either to start ahead of the drafted QB or to mentor his inaugural season) will be a vital move this offseason.

Indianapolis Colts

Status: Ralph Wiggum Meme of Choice

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $30M

Another veteran QB acquisition swing and a miss via Matt Ryan that lingers into the 2023 offseason thanks to a $12M guarantee for next season. It’s (slightly) possible that a trade partner is found, it’s definitely possible that Jim Irsay eats the $12M and outright releases Ryan, but it makes the most sense that a restructured contract is put in place for 2023 that makes his $12M cash, $18M total cap more efficient for the Colts.

Behind (or next to, or possibly in front of) Ryan, Nick Foles carries a 1 year, $3.6M contract into 2023, $1.5M of which is fully guaranteed. While, youngster Sam Ehlinger carries a 2 year, $2M (non-guaranteed) contract into the offseason.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Status: We’re Ok.

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$17M

The Jacksonville offense as a whole is becoming more fun every week, and the emergence of Trevor Lawrence is a major reason why. The #1 overall pick carries 2 years, $9.6M + a 5th year option on his rookie contract, and won’t become extension eligible until after the 2023 campaign.

Current backup C.J. Beathard is slated for unrestricted free agency next March.

Kansas City Chiefs

Status: MVP Money Coming

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $23M

Now we’ve seen Patrick Mahomes be great with a true WR1 *(Tyreek Hill) and with a weapon by committee system. Translation, he’s great, which works out, because his contract holds 9 years, $414.5M remaining on it, with no clear and concise “out” for Kansas City at any point in time. Mahomes as “only” banked $63M cash across the first three years of this contract which is basically what he would have earned having played out his rookie contract plus a franchise tag. The meat & potatoes of the deal kick in now, as the 27 year old will see $120M cash over the next three seasons.

Mahomes’ 2023 cap hit currently rings in at $46.7M. The Chiefs tolerated a $35.8M figure in 2022, and with the salary cap rising significantly, could theoretically do the same next season. But there’s $27.5M to be saved in converting a roster bonus if they feel the need.

Longtime backup QB Chad Henne is playing out another 1 year deal in KC as he approaches 38 years of age. It may be time for the Chiefs to switch up their QB2 for the first time in 5 years.

Las Vegas Raiders

Status: Every Possible Possibility

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $34M

Derek Carr’s 2022 needed to at least resemble his past two seasons to help justify the 3 year, $121.5M extension he was handed this past April. Instead, he’s having his worst season in 5 years, despite a shiny new weapon in Davante Adams at his disposal. There’s a tiny world where the Raiders release Carr before February 15th, after which another $40M+ becomes fully guaranteed. Will Las Vegas trade those guarantees away to another franchise this spring? Our sources say it’s extremely likely.

Current backup Jarrett Stidham is a pending free agent (so the Raiders don’t exactly have Plan B for Carr ready and waiting in the wings).

UPDATE: The Raiders have benched Derek Carr for the remainder of 2022, putting him on track to be moved this offseason. If they can't put together a trade before February 15th (when $40M guarantees), expect an outright release for the 31 year old.

Los Angeles Chargers

Status: Pay the Man

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$9.4M

Justin Herbet’s 2022 isn’t going to approach the fantastic 2021 performance he put in, but the jury’s already out on this decision. Herbert’s rookie contract holds 1 year, $4.2M + a 5th year option in 2024 that will certainly be exercised by the May deadline. He’s a $44M quarterback in our system currently, but as with Joe Burrow in Cincy, the financial sky is the limit.

Backups Chase Daniel & Easton Stick are pending free agents, so there’s a move to be made in that regard.

Los Angeles Rams

Status: Run it Back

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$1.9M

Matthew Stafford has been vocal about his plan to return from spinal cord contusion injury, so the Baker Mayfield conversations can dissipate. Stafford’s deal contains 3 years, $121.5M remaining including $57M that fully guarantees next March. At this point, it’s more likely he’s the Rams’ QB1 through 2025 than not.

Backup John Wolford is a restricted free agent (non-tender candidate) while Bryce Perkins is still an exclusive rights free agent. Look for the Rams to bring in a viable #2 this offseason.

Miami Dolphins

Status: Hold Please

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$6.7M

One of the tougher rooms to read right now as Tua Tagovailoa has shown greatness, averageness, & below averageness this season, plus three separate trips into concussion protocol. While he becomes extension eligible after the 2022 season, Tua’s financial future is likely in a holding pattern for now, as his physical condition is a must priority for both sides. He’s on a 1 year, $4.7M (guaranteed) rookie deal plus a 5th year option for 2024 that must be decided on this coming May.

Teddy Bridgewater is headed back to free agency, while 7th round pick Skylar Thompson remains on a 3 year, $1.1M (non-guaranteed) deal.

Minnesota Vikings

Status: Pay it Forward

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$7M

Kirk Cousins tacked on an extra 1 year, $35M guaranteed this past March, locking in his 2023 season - but nothing thereafter. A multi-year extension to keep the 34-year-old in Minnesota for the rest of his career is plausible this time around, deserving, and can help lower his current $36.25M cap hit next season.

Backup Nick Mullens is slated for unrestricted free agency.

New England Patriots

Status: Michael Scott Cringe Meme

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $54M

It’s not unfair to claim that Mac Jones took a giant step back in 2022, putting the position into a bit of flux for New England going forward. Jones is fully guaranteed at 2 years, $4.7M plus a 2025 5th-year option. For now it remains Mac’s job to lose heading into 2023.

Veteran Brian Hoyer is under contract on a 1 year, $2M deal ($1.4M guaranteed, $2.24M cap hit) through 2023 and should be back in the fold if he doesn’t hang them up first. 2022 4th round pick Bailey Zappe brings a non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M rookie contract into the conversation as well.

New Orleans Saints

Status: More of the Same?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$57M

Barring a late season extension, QB1 Andy Dalton is headed to unrestricted free agency. The 35-year-old has been solid in 2022, completing 66% of his passes with a 95+ rating. Bringing him back on an incentive-based deal probably makes sense for a Saints franchise with no 1st round pick.

Jameis Winston is signed through 2023 on a $12.8M salary ($15.6M cap hit). $5.8M of it becomes fully guaranteed March 17th, and there’s an $11.2M dead cap hit to release him next spring. The Saints almost certainly move on here.

32-year-old Taysom Hill is fully guaranteed at $9.9M ($13.9M cap hit) through 2023 and could (finally) be a legitimate contender for the QB1 role.

New York Giants

Status: Keep With the Jones

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $58M

There’s still a deep dividing line between those who believe Daniel Jones should be allowed to walk into free agency this March, and those who believe he’s earned a 2nd contract in New York. Is a projected $32M franchise tag the happy compromise? Blake Bortles bagged a last minute 3 year, $54M deal in Jacksonville back in 2018. That $18M per year represented 10.1% of the league cap at the time. If we run this math on a projected $225M salary cap for 2023, we get Jones into a 3 year, $66M deal, with cap & cash flexibility for GM Joe Schoen & the Giants. It’s not a far reach if they can get their QB1 to buy in.

Backup QB Tyrod Taylor holds a 1 year, $5.5M deal through 2023, including $2.725M fully guaranteed now. His $6.9M cap hit is a bit high for a QB2, and while Schoen won’t ever be a huge salary restructure guy, this could be a candidate.

New York Jets

Status: Back to the Drawing Board

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $15.9M

2021 #2 overall pick Zach Wilson appears to have played himself out of town this season. His fully guaranteed 2 year, $9.25M contract contains $20.7M of dead cap next March, so an outright release makes little sense, but including him in a larger trade, or tossing in a draft pick to ship him out to another QB-needy team seems very much in play.

Mike White is finishing out a $2.54M restricted tender in 2022, set for unrestricted free agency next March. The Jets will likely look to swing bigger at the QB position this offseason, but bringing back White on a modified starter contract definitely holds logic. Mitch Trubisky’s 2 year, $14M deal seems a decent starting point.

37-year old Joe Flacco heads back to free agency where his future remains very much in question.

Philadelphia Eagles

Status: Brinks Truck

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $10.5M

Jalen Hurts’ late season injury probably cost him a legitimate shot to snag away the MVP award from Patrick Mahomes, but it doesn’t sour our impression of the 24 year old. He was given an opportunity to sink or swim with a greatly constructed Eagles’ roster this season, and he answered every bell, completing 67% of his passes for a 104+ rating. Hurts becomes extension eligible for the first time this spring, and the Eagles’ front office loves handing out early contracts whenever possible. He’s a near $46M per year player in our system currently, putting him in line for Kyler Murray’s 5 year, $230.5M deal in Arizona.

Backup Gardner Minshew is slated for unrestricted free agency, leaving youngster Ian Book (2 years, $1.95M non-guaranteed) as the only other QB under contract in 2023.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Status: Dark Horse Splash?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $13.2M

Kenny Pickett’s rookie contract contains 3 years, $5.94M fully guaranteed + a 5th year option in 2026. It was a herky jerky first year for Pickett, and the Steelers aren’t the type of franchise to sit around and wait. Don’t be surprised if a veteran move is at least entertained here this offseason.

QB1A Mitchell Trubisky carries a 1 year, $8M (non-guaranteed) salary ($10.62M cap hit) into 2023. With no early bonuses or triggers, Pittsburgh can keep him rostered through the offseason as an insurance policy, but the $8M of cap to be freed up via trade or release could come in handy early on. Longtime backup Mason Rudolph is slated for unrestricted free agency.

San Francisco 49ers

Status: If it Ain’t Broke

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $13.5M

Oh who knows anymore. Why would this team pay for a QB at all in their current iteration? And why would this front office even consider “advancing” this offense with a more versatile QB like Trey Lance? The grass isn’t always greener.

Contractually, Trey Lance holds a 2 year, $9M fully guaranteed rookie contract plus a 5th-year option for 2025. Until further notice, it’s his gig once he’s healthy enough to play.

Brock Purdy’s stabilizing performance down the stretch probably bagged him the backup role in 2023. His non-guaranteed 3 year, $2.9M remaining contract certainly fits the value bill.

31-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo is set to hit the open market this March for the first time in his NFL career. Despite a foot fracture that shelved his 2022 campaign, he’ll have plenty of offers to choose from. He carries a $35M valuation into the offseason.

Seattle Seahawks

Status: Now What?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $50M

The shine has worn off a bit down the stretch, but Geno Smith’s bust to boom 2022 is a true revelation. Now what to do with his expiring contract though? Everyone under the sun (ourselves included) were putting him into a $30M+ contract 4 weeks ago. Is a $32M franchise tag too rich? The better question might be, if Smith walks into free agency, just how many suitors are there? This just might be the best, singular situation for the 32 year old, and he likely knows it. We’ll keep things easy for now and just put him on the Daniel Jones bridge contract path. 3 years, around $65M, but really just a 1 year guarantee at signing.

Backup Drew Lock is headed into free agency with very little buzz.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Status: Bueller? Bueller?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$42M

Tom Brady finally looks human 23 seasons later, leaving us with absolutely no idea what comes next. Does he walk into his cherry Fox Sports gig? Does he try to pick up the pieces with a better run franchise? A return to Tampa in 2023 seems the least likely option, which means he’ll leave a $35.1M dead cap parting gift to the Bucs, thanks to void years built into his latest extension.

Kyle Trask holds 2 years, $2.5M non-guaranteed remaining on his rookie contract, while veteran Blaine Gabbert is slated for unrestricted free agency. The Bucs don’t have a legitimate QB1 plan for 2023 currently.

Tennessee Titans

Status: Dark Horse Splash?

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: -$16.5M

Before 2022, Ryan Tannehill had no chance of sticking around Tennessee for the final year of his contract. That sentiment has changed (and not because he lit up the stat boards this season). Tannehills non-guaranteed $27M for 2023 comes with a $36.6M cap hit. A small restructure should clean things up a bit while not damaging their future caps too much. With that said, Tennessee could very much be a landing spot for Jimmy Garoppolo, Jordan Love, etc… this offseason, which then puts Tannehill’s contract on notice. The Titans can free up $17.8M of cap space with a Pre June 1st release of their veteran QB.

Backup Malik Willis didn’t exactly instill confidence in the position going forward, but his 3 year, $3.5M non-guaranteed remaining rookie deal offers little to no risk from here out. Will Tennessee try to find their next future QB this offseason, or is that plan still a year away?

Washington Commanders

Status: Better Required

2023 Top 51 Cap Space: $20M

The Carson Wentz experiment is most likely over in Washington, as the 30 year old carries 2 years, $53.3M, none of it guaranteed - and no dead cap sitting against it. With $9M of compensation set to guarantee March 17th, it’ll be an early decision for the Commanders. Washington could stand to find an upgrade at this position with a surrounding roster that’s rounding into form.

QB1A Taylor Heinicke is slated for unrestricted free agency, and probably doesn’t have much of a market outside of Washington. Is another short term incentive-laden extension good for both parties? Last year’s 5th round pick Sam Howell remains rostered at 3 years, $2.95M, non-guaranteed.