The NBA trade deadline is roughly a month-and-a-half away. In some ways, that’s a long way off. In other ways, it’s coming up very rapidly. Such is life with the NBA’s calendar.

Trade deadline activity has been altered in recent years by the flattening of the lottery odds and the addition of the Play-In Tournament. On one end, teams don’t have to be horrifically bad to have the best lottery odds. They just need to be fairly bad. On the other end, more teams have a shot at the postseason, and those hopes run deeper into the season.

But the altering has been in types of trade, as opposed to volume of trades. 2022 trade deadline week saw 16 total trades. Some were traditional ones between buyers looking to contend and sellers with their eyes on the future. Some were teams rebalancing their rosters, regardless of where they stood in the standings. Others were strictly about the cap and lowering or avoiding the luxury tax.

No matter what, we’ll have action leading up to the deadline. With that in mind, here are the top-15 players to keep an eye on leading up to the trade deadline on February 9.

Jae Crowder (PHX) 

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $10.18M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $10,183,800 

Crowder is going to be traded. The Suns won’t let him languish away from the team, only to lose him for nothing this summer, out of spite. He’s also on a very easily movable $10.2 million salary. Finally, there are a ton of contenders who can use a wing defender with playoff experience who has shot it OK for stretches of his career. Phoenix will get something for Crowder, eventually.

John Collins (ATL)

Contract Status: 4 years, $102M through 2025-26 (includes Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $23,500,000 

We’re in what feels like year three or four of Collins rumors. Yet, Atlanta re-signed him to a five-year deal, just over a year ago. The problem? That deal still has four years and $102 million left on it through 2025-26. Collins is a good player, but his time in Atlanta seems to have run its course. With the Hawks needing to rebalance their cap sheet some, it feels like Collins may actually be on the move this year.

Eric Gordon (HOU)

Contract Status: 2 years, $40.5M though 2023-24 (2023-24 non-guaranteed)

2022-23 Salary: $19,568,360

If John Collins is in year three or four of trade rumors, this is year umpteen for Gordon. He’s on a pseudo-expiring deal at a very tradable $19.5 million. If Bojan Bogdanovic really is off the market, Gordon is probably the best scoring/shooting wing available. Even if his overall shooting has dipped a bit, Gordon is still someone who can help a contender in a playoff series.

James Wiseman (GSW)

Contract Status: 2 years, $21.7M through 2023-24; Rookie Scale contract

2022-23 Salary: $9,603,360

Let’s engage in a bit of rampant speculation, shall we? The Warriors had this grand plan to extend a 10-year contention window into a two-decade long window. As the original core group aged out, the young core would be ready to step up. Only…the original core is still going strong and the young core, led by Wiseman hasn’t panned out. Wiseman needs patience and minutes to figure it out in the NBA, neither of which Golden State can give him. His $9.6 million salary would bring in a helpful, win-now veteran to shore up the bench, and that’s why Wiseman might be on the move.

Evan Fournier, Derrick Rose and Cam Reddish (NYK)

Fournier Contract Status: 3 years, $37.86M through 2024-25 (includes 2024-25 Club Option)

Fournier 2022-23 Salary: $18,000,000

Rose Contract Status: 2 years, $30.12M through 2023-24 (includes 2022-24 Club Option)

Rose 2022-23 Salary: $18,000,000

Reddish Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $5.95M through 2022-23; Rookie Scale contract

Reddish 2022-23 Salary: $5,954,454

We’re lumping these three together, because it’s a good bet that at least two of them are getting traded by the deadline. Any combination of the three, along with a pick or two, could get the Knicks a major rotation upgrade. Given all three vets are so far out of the rotation that they might as well be in New Jersey, New York is going to do something here.

Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel (DET)

Burks Contract Status: 2 years, $20.5M through 2023-24 (includes 2023-24 Club Option)

Burks 2022-23 Salary: $10,012,800

Noel Contract Status: 2 years, $18.92M through 2023-24 (includes 2022-24 Club Option)

Noel 2022-23 Salary: $9,240,000

Another combo! The Pistons are bad. The Pistons are going to continue to be bad for at least the rest of this season. That’s fine. It happens. It makes sense that they want to keep Bojan Bogdanovic, because he fits moving forward. But a bad team doesn’t need Burks, who isn’t a part of the future, taking up guard/wing minutes when they could go to younger players. Noel is buried behind young bigs. Newly-extended GM Tory Weaver will get what he can for the two vets, as the rebuild continues in the Motor City.

Danny Green (MEM)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $10M through 2022-23 (non-guaranteed, fully guaranteed on 1/10/23)

2022-23 Salary: $10,000,000

This one is interesting, most because there isn’t a whole lot the Grizzlies need. They could use one more wing that can defend guards, just in case Desmond Bane keeps having toe/foot issues. Enter Green and his expiring $10 million salary. Green’s deal could allow Memphis to get a nice rotation player without having to trade any of the prized kids on their roster. Of course, if healthy enough, Green could just be that wing that the Grizzlies need himself.

Terrence Ross (ORL)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $11.5M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $11,500,000

Hey! We’ve hit the obligatory “Terrence Ross is available” section of the list. Ross is literally the last vet standing in Orlando. Everyone else has come and gone, but Ross remains. He’s probably not coming back next season, so it would behoove the Magic to get something, even second rounder or two, for Ross and his $11.5 million expiring deal.

Matisse Thybulle (PHI)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $4.38M through 2022-23; Rookie Scale contract

2022-23 Salary: $4,379,527

For a contender to upgrade their rotation, they have to part with someone. Philadelphia seems like they are a guy or two short of reaching the upper echelon of teams. Thybulle wasn’t extended, which is always a red flag about a player’s future with their team. This could be one of those rebalancing the rotation deals where Thybulle is sent out to a team that needs some perimeter defense, while the Sixers return a big that they can plug in behind Joel Embiid.

Kyle Kuzma (WAS)

Contract Status: 2 years, $26M through 2023-24 (includes 2023-24 Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $13,000,000

We’ve hit the “These guys are good, but their teams aren’t and the player is set for free agency” section of the list. You can read all about Kuzma’s contract situation here. He’s going to opt out and he’s going to get paid this summer. If Washington isn’t certain that’s going to happen with them, the Wizards should be looking to trade Kuzma and his very tradable $13 million deal.

Nikola Vucevic (CHI)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $22M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $22,000,000

The Bulls are a mess. They can’t seem to find the right lineup combinations, in addition to struggling to get Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan to mesh together. It doesn’t seem like either of the stars is going anywhere, so that leaves Vucevic as the big trade piece. If a contender winds up needing a center, and Chicago has no plans to re-sign Vucevic, he could be the best five on the market.

Jakob Poeltl (SAS)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $9.40M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $9,398,148

This one comes down to what the Spurs want to do long-term. If they see Poeltl as a big part of the next good team in San Antonio, they can keep him and re-sign him this summer. Poeltl won't extend, so it all comes down to how much the Spurs will pay to keep him in free agency. If there’s worry that he’ll leave anyway, like Kuzma and Washington, San Antonio has to make a move first.

Duncan Robinson (MIA)

Contract Status: 4 years, $74.35M through 2025-26 (includes 2025-26 Player Option)

2022-23 Salary: $16,902,000

Robinson has been out of the Heat’s regular rotation for quite some time now. That, combined with his $16.9 million make Robinson a nice trade chip for a Miami team that is short on nice trade chips. The challenge? Robinson is owed somewhere between $47 and $57 million (pending guarantees) for the three seasons after this one. That’s a lot for a one-skill guy that isn’t playing. But the Heat always seem to find a way to make a deal, and Robinson is probably part of finding that way.

Robert Covington (LAC)

Contract Status: 2 years, $24M through 2023-24

2022-23 Salary: $12,307,692

The Clippers won’t let adding money take them out of the mix for a trade. They’ll just keep paying the tax bill. Covington rarely plays for the Clippers anymore, and he’s owed $24 million through next season. The $12.3 million he’s owed this year could be the salary-matching LA needs to upgrade the rotation.

Seth Curry (BKN)

Contract Status: Expiring contract - 1 year, $8.50M through 2022-23

2022-23 Salary: $8,496,653

This is more of a hunch than anything else. The Nets will likely be active, but they’re somewhat limited in the trades they can make. Their best salary-matching is attached to players they need in their rotation. Joe Harris could be moved, but no one seems to want to take on the $19.9 million he’s owed for next season. That leaves Curry. He’s coming off the bench, and his role can be covered by a combination of Harris, Patty Mills and Cam Thomas. If the Nets make a move, it feels like Curry and his $8.5 million expiring contract will be the way they do it.

The 2023 MLS Draft was conducted on Dec 21, 2022.

Hamady Diop from Clemson goes #1 overall to Charlotte FC.

11 drafted players were reportedly signed immediately upon being drafted.

Conferences with the most selections are as follows:

• AAC: 16
• Big Ten: 11
• Big East: 9
• Sun Belt: 6
• America East, American, Atlantic 10: 5

Schools with multiple draft selections are as follows:

• 5: Syracuse
• 4: Maryland
• 3: Clemson, Indiana, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Western Michigan
• 2: Creighton, Dayton, Georgetown, Penn, San Diego State, UNC Greensboro, Washington

2023 MLS Draft Results

The 2022 NFL Pro Bowl rosters were announced Wednesday evening and the list includes a healthy dose of experienced, high-paid talent. In fact, of the 17 position groups represented here, 11 of them saw the highest average paid player at that position get selected this season.

Also

• 13 of the players selected this year are pending unrestricted free agency next March.
• 3 members of the Eagles & Chiefs offensive lines were selected.
• Only two 1st-year rookies (Sauce Gardner, Tariq Woolen) were selected.

Here’s a full breakdown of selections by position, including the remaining contract & free agency years for each player. 

Quarterbacks

Geno Smith banks a $500,000 bonus for his selection, setting up what should be a massive pay raise over his $4M 2022 campaign. The Eagles and Bengals likely back up the brinks trucks for Hurts & Burrow respectively this winter as well, with each hovering around the $45M valuation mark currently. The Top 4 highest average paid QBs missed the Pro Bowl this year.

Running Backs

4 of the 6 running backs selected are playing on expiring contracts, set to combine for what will be a gigantic halfback free agency - money excluded. 

Fullbacks

The first and third highest average paid fullbacks were selected this year in a position that still holds plenty of value in the league, though the money hasn’t ever accounted for it. 

Wide Receivers

4 of the Top 6 highest average paid WRs make the list, including the #1 overall in Hill, while Chase, Jefferson, & Lamb all become extension eligible after the 2022 season. McLaurin gets a $250,000 bump on next year’s salary, while Adams & Hill lock in $250,000 bonuses for their selections.

Tight Ends

3 of the Top 5 highest average paid TEs get the nod, while an extension for Hockenson in Minnesota this winter seems imminent. Andrews tacks on a $250,000 bonus to his 2022 compensation for this nod.

Offensive Tackles

Will the Chiefs double tag Brown or give him the big extension? A new rookie QB in Houston probably means Tunsil gets another big payday this winter, while Tristan Wirfs becomes extension eligible for the first time in Tampa. Armstead grabs a $650,000 bonus for his selection. 

Offensive Guards

A few usual suspects here, but Dickerson gets the nod in just his 2nd NFL season, while the Falcons are likely poised to back a brinks truck up for Lindstrom this winter.

Offensive Centers

Humphrey becomes the 3rd member of the Chiefs’ O-Line to get the nod, while Kelce becomes #3 for the Eagles as well, as does the highest average paid center in Ragnow. Mitch Morse bags an extra $200,000 for his selection.

Defensive Ends

Another highest average paid player (Garrett) makes the list, while Bosa & Burns probably don’t take the field next offseason before a shiny new gigantic contract is under their belt.

Defensive Tackles

Donald makes it yet ANOTHER highest average paid player to get selected this year. Williams, Simmons & Lawrence are all smoldering extension candidates, though all 3 teams have a QB position to address that could roadblock an immediate payday.

Outside Linebackers

Shocker: The highest average paid OLB (Watt) made the cut. Mack might be a restructure extension candidate this winter due to some funky cap numbers and lack of guarantees, while Parsons will need to wait another year in Dallas to get his bag. Reddick earns a $500,000 increase on an already guaranteed option bonus for next season.

Inside Linebackers

Baltimore’s current ILB & their previous ILB both get selected, while Warner shows he’s worth every dime of the top of the market extension SF gave him recently. Davis earns a $500,000 bonus for his nod.

Cornerbacks

Two rookies get the nod here (Gardner, Woolen), as does yet another highest average paid player (Alexander). Diggs and Slay are extension candidates this winter. Howard is on his way to a $1M incentive per his selection, while Humphrey bags an extra $250,000 for his.

Safeties

The Top 2 highest average paid safeties (James & Fitzpatrick) hit the roster this year, while Jordan Poyer grabs an extra $500,000 in Buffalo, and sets himself up for what should be a very rewarding pending free agency.

Special Teams

Plenty of players set to hit the open market or lock in extensions this winter, while Justin Tucker joins only Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen, & Patrick Mahomes as 2022 Pro Bowlers with contracts that run through at least 2028. Duvernay now qualifies for a 4th-year contract escalator.

The NBA’s extension rules are broken. Not irreparably so, but they need to be fixed. Kyle Kuzma of the Washington Wizards is a perfect example.

Kuzma recently confirmed that he intends to opt out of his contract this coming offseason. That makes sense, as Kuzma is set to be paid just $13 million for the 2023-24 season. His play since being traded to the Wizards has far outpaced that of a midrange deal.

This season, Kuzma has averaged 21.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. He’s done so on respectable shooting, especially given he’s regularly Washington’s top scoring option. Overall, Kuzma has proven he’s scoring combo forward, and combo forwards who can score generally get paid.

In an ideal world, Kuzma and Washington would sign an extension. However, the NBA’s current extension rules would see Kuzma leave far too much money on the table.

Let’s dive in!

The Veteran Extension

Kuzma currently makes $13 million in the second season of the three-year, $39 million rookie scale extension he signed with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2020. That deal is set to pay Kuzma $13 million flat per season, with the 2023-24 season being a player option.

Under the veteran extension rules, Kuzma would be able to decline his 2023-24 player option and add four years to his deal via extension. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $15,600,000
• 2024-25: $16,848,000
• 2025-26: $18,096,000
• 2026-27: $19,344,000
• Total: four years, $69,888,000

That’s the maximum allowable 120% off Kuzma’s current salary with 8% raises off the $15.6 million first-year salary.

For reference: A salary of $15.6 million would rank 93rd in the NBA, nestled between Jusuf Nurkic’s $15,625,000 and Malik Beasley’s $15,558,035.

That’s not enough for a player who is scoring more than 21 points per game, while adding solid rebounding and passing. Thus, Kuzma is planning to opt for free agency this coming summer.

The Designated Veteran Extension

Kuzma isn’t eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension, but we’re only mentioning this here to say it’s not happening. For Kuzma to be eligible for a Designated Veteran Extension, he’d have to make All-NBA this season, win MVP or Defensive Player of the Year. None of those things are happening.

Re-signing with the Wizards as a free agent

Kuzma is going to opt out, which gives him control over his next team for the first time in his career. Because Kuzma signed only a three-year rookie scale extension, and he’s opting out after the second season, he’ll have six Years of Service. That keeps him eligible for the 25% of the salary cap maximum tier. A max deal for Kuzma with the Wizards would look like this:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $36,180,000
• 2025-26: $38,860,000
• 2026-27: $41,540,000
• 2027-28: $44,220,000
• Total: five years, $194,300,000

That’s the 25% of the cap max with 8% raises.

That feels far too rich for a player who has never been an All-Star and will be 28 years old when next season starts.

Signing with another team as a free agent

This summer, nine teams project to have cap space. Of those nine, seven are in range to be able to offer Kuzma the maximum they possibly can. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $33,500,000
• 2024-25: $35,175,000
• 2025-26: $36,850,000
• 2026-27: $38,525,000
• Total: four years, $144,050,000

That’s the same first-year maximum salary as Kuzma could get from the Wizards at 25% of the cap. The difference here is the deal includes 5% raises and can only go out for four years.

An AAV of $36 million still feels like too much for Kuzma. To get him to leave Washington, another team will need to offer a big contract, but it probably doesn’t need to be quite that big.

The Extend-and-Trade or Extension After a Trade

We’re going to take this option off the table, as it’s even more limiting than signing a straight extension would be. Kuzma could only add two seasons and a 5% bump over his currently salary.

To make it simple: Any team trading for Kuzma would be doing so with hopes that having his Bird Rights for a new contract in July will be enough.

One note: If Kuzma at all waffles on his commitment to re-signing with the Wizards this coming summer, Washington has to consider trading him. To get something for Kuzma vs losing him for nothing is a must.

Summary

Kyle Kuzma’s situation is an interesting one. The extension rules being so limiting take that off the table. Kuzma’s also not in a spot to land a max deal in free agency, barring something really unexpected. Finding that sweet spot in between is the key.

It’s not a lock Washington will re-sign Kuzma, as their team salary is starting to push towards the tax. The Wizards also have a new contract looming for Kristaps Porzingis, either this coming free agent period (if Porzingis opts out) or via extension or new deal in 2024 (if Porzingis opts in). Washington also gave Bradley Beal a five-year, $251 million deal that is starting to look a little shaky.

In free agency, it’s unclear if Kuzma will be a priority free agent for anyone. His scoring game could make sense for teams like the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers or Oklahoma City Thunder. The latter two might make slightly more sense, The Pacers and Thunder are somewhat limited on forward talent, whereas the Pistons and Rockets have some young forwards already in place.

The Los Angeles Lakers are probably thinking bigger with their cap space, while the Orlando Magic already have a overstuffed forward position. It’s unclear what the San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz will be doing as this point. There’s a world where Kuzma could make sense for both of those teams too.

It’s also worth noting that the free agent crop is fairly weak this summer. Kuzma will be somewhere around the top-10 of free agents that can be reasonably expected to change teams come July.

Where does that leave him contract-wise? In a pretty good spot. Here are some players that are decent comps for Kuzma and their recent contracts:

• Davis Bertans: five years, $80 million
• Bojan Bogdanovic: two-year extension for $39 million
• Tobias Harris: four years, $64 million in 2015-16 (Harris’ current near-max deal isn’t a fair comp, as it’s considered one of the worst deals in the NBA, but his initial extension is a good comp)
• Lauri Markkanen: four years, $67.5 million in 2021-22
• Marcus Morris: four years, $64 million in 2020-21

Not all of those comps are perfect, but they’re close. On average, those players all got between $16 million and $17 million per season. That’s not all that far off what Kuzma could extend for with the Wizards. But the key differences are the weak free agent market and the changing cap environment.

In such a poor free agent class, Kuzma is poised to cash in. That will bump his value up some. In addition, in coming seasons, $17 million is going to be closer to 10% of the cap than it is the 15-20% it was for many of the above players.

Adding it all up, Kuzma should still land a four-year deal worth between $75 million and $80 million. Given he’ll be 28 years old when next season starts, Washington or a rival team would do well to structure Kuzma’s next deal as a descending contract.

Here’s what that could look like if Kuzma re-signed with the Wizards:

• 2023-24: $22,000,000
• 2024-25: $20,240,000
• 2025-26: $18,480,000
• 2026-27: $16,720,000
• Total: four years, $77,440,000

This version declines by 8% each season, which is the maximum allowable if Kuzma re-signs in Washington. A $16.7 million salary in his age-31 season seems fair for both Kuzma and the Wizards. It would also give Washington a little cap sheet relief, considering Beal is set to make over $57 million that season.

If Kuzma wanted similar overall money from another team, but still on a descending structure, it could look like this:

• 2023-24: $20,925,000
• 2024-25: $19,878,750
• 2025-26: $18,832,500
• 2026-27: $17,786,250
• Total: four years, $77,422,500

That’s roughly the same total money as Kuzma would get from Washington, but with 5% declines per season.

Either one of those setups gives Kuzma more money than the players we comped him with. That seems fair given the combination of Kuzma’s production, his age, the free agent market this summer and the continued rising of the salary cap. Of course, Kuzma could do a deal that follows the traditional structure with the lower salaries up front.

No matter the structure, as long as Washington, or any other team, keeps Kyle Kuzma’s next deal in the range of four years and $80 million, they’ll have done well.

As the holidays approach, nearly every notable MLB free agent has landed into a new contract for the 2023 season. In fact, only 21 players who accumulated a WAR of 1.0 or greater last season remain on the available big board.

BEST AVAILABLE FREE AGENTS

Unsigned MLB free agents who posted a 1.0+ WAR in the 2022 season. ALL AVAILABLE FREE AGENTS

THE FREE AGENT SHORTSTOP RECAP

With Dansby Swanson now off of the market, here’s a final scoreboard look at how things shook out for the star players, who combined for $1.107B in fully guaranteed contracts.

• Carlos Correa (MIN -> SF): 13 years, $350M
• Trea Turner (LAD -> PHI): 11 years, $300M
• Xander Bogaerts (BOS -> SD): 11 years, $280M
• Dansby Swanson (ATL -> CHC): 7 years, $177M

One interesting takeaway? None of these shortstops returned to their 2022 team.

UPDATED TAX PAYROLLS

Spotrac has been tracking projected Opening Day tax payrolls since the start of the offseason, from the Mets historic figure down to the Athletics doing Oakland things. Recent signings now position 11 teams north of the $200M mark, with the Cubs & White Sox as the latest members of this club.

Four teams still remain over the $233M tax threshold, with the Padres/Phillies still in the first taxpayer tier, the Yankees handedly in tier 3, and the Mets shattering the glass ceiling of the fourth tier.

ADDITIONAL TAX PAYROLL PROJECTIONS

TRADE MARKET HEATING UP?

Generally the largest offseason trades come at or right after the early December winter meetings. But a few names are still being floated out with interest. We’ve detailed a number of those Winter Trade Possibilities here.

12 MLB Trade Candidates heading toward the new year, including current & future financial ramifications & potential destinations for each.

Rafael Devers (3B, BOS, 26)

1 year, est. $18M for 2023, 2024 free agent

Devers should be the prototypical position player to pay and utilize as your cornerstone pieceSS Xander Bogaert already out the door, and SP Nathan Eovaldi likely next, Boston’s stock is still dropping - not rising. They’re in the process of trying to negotiate an extension here, but based on Xander’s offers, an end game seems unlikely. If he hits the trade block, Devers will draw blockbuster offers from most of the league.

James McCann (C, NYM, 32)

2 years, $24M

This might be a bit of wishful thinking here, but there’s no question the Mets would like to get out from under this contract as quickly as possible - especially with top prospect Francisco Alvarez now purchased, & Tomas Nido (2 more years of control) in the running for a Gold Glove. New York will be looking to retain or replace 3/4s of a rotation, half a bullpen, and a centerfielder this offseason, so paying down McCann’s deal to get back a hole plugger might be worth their time.

Liam Hendriks (RP, CWS, 33)

2 years, $30M

It’s unclear who the White Sox are trying to be in 2023, but clearly getting out of $30M is more important than 35+ saves a year. Contenders will want the White Sox to eat some of this salary, but this feels like a move that gets made.

An Arizona Outfielder

Teams have called about Daulton Varsho (CF, est. $2.7M in 2023, 2027 free agent), but the asking price rightfully remains extremely high. Youngster Alek Thomas (23, CF, pre-arb) could be the piece that moves, and should bring back a price to sets up this team to at least consider getting back into divisional contention in 2-3 years. 

A Blue Jays Catcher

Danny Jansen (28, estimated $3.6M, 2025 free agent), Alejandro Kirk (24, pre-arb, 2027 free agent), & Gabriel Moreno (23, pre-arb, 2030 free agent) make for quite a 1-2-3 punch in Toronto. Shedding Jansen’s number with a near taxpayer roster right now makes the most business sense, but probably brings back the smallest haul. 

Corbin Burnes (SP, MIL, 28)

Est. $12.5M for 2023, Arbitration thru 2024

He’s probably not “officially” on the trade block until an over the top offer comes in. Should the Giants be that team? With Carlos Correa now in the fold, can top prospect SS Marco Luciano become a centerpiece starting point to get this kind of trade talk rolling? Rodon’s 6 year, $162M deal is a foundation for his next contract.

Bryan Reynolds (CF, PIT, 27)

$6.75M in 2023, Arbitration thru 2025

With plenty of team control remaining, there’s no rush for Pittsburgh to trade Reynolds, but there’s always a price. This feels like an early spring move after teams assess their new rosters a little bit. He projects to Brandon Nimmo’s recent 8 year $160M deal in NY.

Carlos Carrasco (SP, NYM, 35)

1 year, $14M + $1M trade bonus

Cookie had his $14M option exercised for 2023, but it feels like that was more of a backup plan for the Mets - who added bodies all around him in the rotation this past month. Teams that missed out on Rodon/Eovaldi down the stretch here will have interest.

Dylan Carlson (CF, STL, 24)

Pre-Arb, 2027 free agent

The Cardinals have a surplus in the outfield - even after trading Harrison Bader at the last deadline. The centerfield market is smoldering, and in demand, right now, so a youngster with big upside could bring back a strong haul to St. Louis. Poaching an arm or two from Houston makes sense here.

Cal Quantrill (SP, CLE, 27)

Est. $5M for 2023, Arbitration thru 2025

Quantrill has now posted back-to-back-to-back strong seasons, raising his value to an all-time high. So why move him? The Guardians have 10 starting pitchers at or very close to MLB ready. They can keep the gravy train moving with an annual sell high move like this, especially before Quantrill gets too expensive.

Pablo Lopez (SP, MIA, 26)

Est. $6M for 2023, Arbitration thru 2024

Lopez was highly coveted at this past August deadline, but the Marlins were looking to be blown away with an offer (rightfully so). Lopez has now posted back-to-back-to-back seasons that prove he’s worthy of top rotation action & money. If the Marlins aren’t willing to be that team, striking on a deal this winter (with two years of control remaining) could prove to bring back a franchise-altering haul. Lopez projects to a 6 year, $110M extension in our system currently.

Gleyber Torres (INF, 26)

Est. $9M for 2023, 2024 Free Agent

Torres projects to be the Yankees’ Opening Day starting second baseman, but shedding his projected $9M arbitration salary this season could be of some business importance. The White Sox make a little sense here, especially as they might have a reliever to send back to NY.

Most NBA general managers will tell you that making trades are a complicated process. The fantasyification of sports, as well as the point-and-click nature of video games, sometimes has fans thinking that making a trade is easy.

The reality is NBA front offices talk trades every single day. Quite often a deal is bandied about months in advance of getting the tweet that it’s been agreed to. Most often, trade talks go nowhere.

The hardest part of making a trade is an obvious one: agreeing on the value heading both ways. But there are complicating factors even beyond that.

Many a time, the teams agree to the base parameters of a deal. Player X is going one way, while Player Y and draft picks are headed the other way. But sometimes that’s not enough to get a deal done. Both sides have to meet the salary-matching component in a trade, and that can get confusing and hard to understand.

Salary-matching in a trade makes signing a player by using cap space look like child’s play. If you have $20 million in available cap space and you want to sign a player, you can offer him up to $20 million. That’s pretty cut and dry.

For a trade to happen in the NBA, there are salary-matching rules that to be met. Let’s break those down.

Trading as a Taxpayer

10 teams are currently over the NBA’s tax line. Nine of them are pretty good bets to finish as taxpayers. Another eight teams are dancing around the tax line. So, over half of the NBA is around the tax as trade season opens.

That’s important because taxpayers have a different set of salary-matching rules than non-taxpayers do.

Taxpayers can take back 125% of the outgoing salary they send out plus $100,000. That means if a taxpayer sends out $20 million in salary, they can take back $25,100,000 in incoming salary.

The reason this is done is to limit how much money a taxpayer can take back in a trade to retain some semblance of competitive balance.

Trading as a Non-Taxpayer

A non-taxpayer has bands for how much salary they can return in a trade.

If a non-taxpayer sends out $1 to $6.5 million in a trade, they can bring back 175% of the outgoing salary plus $100,000.

If a non-taxpayer sends out between greater than $6.5 million in a trade and $19.6 million, they can bring back the outgoing salary plus $5 million.

If a non-taxpayer sends out greater than $19.6 million in a trade, they can bring back 125% of the outgoing salary plus $100,000.

This is done to bring some balance to what non-taxpayers can do in trade as opposed to taxpayers.

Important Note: The calculation as to whether a team is a taxpayer or non-taxpayer is always done post-trade. That means if a team is going from being under the tax to over the tax, how much money they can return via trade could possibly change.

Matching salary via other means

When a trade is made, each team is allowed to structure the trade in the best possible way for themselves. While we might get a deal reported as “Team 1 is trading Players X, Y and Z to Team 2 for Players A, B, C and D”, the actual structure of that deal might be far more complicated.

For example, Team 1 might have a Traded Player Exception (TPE) they are using to absorb Player D and only using salary-matching to trade for Players A, B and C. On the other side, Team 2 could be using the Minimum Exception to absorb Player X, while using salary-matching to bring on Players Y and Z. This type of structuring is often how TPEs are created.

Other Important Trade Rules

• Players who are making the Veteran Minimum can almost always be acquired via the Minimum Exception. That means no salary-matching needs to be used for them to be brought in. Note: something still needs to be sent to the trading team in the deal.

Inversely, if their salary is needed in a deal to make the salary-matching work, a team is allowed to include it as such.

• Players with a trade bonus can waive part or all of the trade bonus in order to meet the salary-matching rules.
• Draft picks always carry a value of $0 in trade. They are “extras” being added to a deal and have no impact on salary-matching.
• Players on a one-year contract with Bird or Early Bird rights after the contract expires (inclusive of an option year) have an implied no-trade clause. This is because those players lose those rights if traded under these circumstances. Two other players, Bradley Beal and Deandre Ayton, also have no-trade clauses. Beal’s is a full NTC, while Ayton’s is a temporary NTC. This year, the NTC list includes:
• Ryan Arcidiacono (New York Knicks)
• Deandre Ayton (Phoenix Suns - one-year NTC due to matched offer sheet)
• Bradley Beal (Washington Wizards - only full NTC)
• Bismack Biyombo (Phoenix Suns)
• Jevon Carter (Milwaukee Bucks)
• Kessler Edwards (Brooklyn Nets)
• Drew Eubanks (Portland Trail Blazers)
• James Harden (Philadelphia 76ers)
• Serge Ibaka (Milwaukee Bucks)
• Andre Iguodala (Golden State Warriors)
• Derrick Jones Jr. (Chicago Bulls)
• Nathan Knight (Minnesota Timberwolves)
• Wesley Matthews (Milwaukee Bucks)
• Rodney McGruder (Detroit Pistons)
• Mike Muscala (Oklahoma City Thunder)
• Theo Pinson (Dallas Mavericks)
• Each side has to give up something in a deal. Even in a straight salary dump trade, something has to go back the other way. This can be something as benign as a minor amount of cash ($110,000 is the minimum), a top-55 protected second round pick or draft rights to a player who is unlikely to come over to the NBA. The key is that all parties have to send something out. Trading a player for “nothing” isn’t actually a thing.
• In a multiple-team trade, each team must satisfy what is called the “touch rule”. The touch rule says that in a multiple-team trade, each team must touch at least two of the other teams in a deal. That can be as simple as sending cash, a protected pick or draft rights. But the touch rule must be satisfied by acquiring from or sending to at least two other teams in the deal.
• A handful of players can’t be traded due to various date-restrictions that don’t allow the player to be traded before the trade deadline. This season, that list includes:
• Devin Booker (Phoenix Suns)
• LeBron James (Los Angeles Lakers)
• Stanley Johnson (San Antonio Spurs)
• Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets)
• Maxi Kleber (Dallas Mavericks)
• C.J. McCollum (New Orleans Pelicans)
• Larry Nance Jr. (New Orleans Pelicans)
• Karl-Anthony Towns (Minnesota Timberwolves)
• Dean Wade (Cleveland Cavaliers)
• Kemba Walker (Dallas Mavericks)
• Andrew Wiggins (Golden State Warriors)

• A Traded Player Exception (TPE) is created when one team takes back less money in salary-matching for one player than they send out. TPEs are not traded, but are used to absorb players into the TPE without having to use salary-matching. TPEs are often created when team’s do a deal as laid out under the “Matching salary via other means” section.

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NBA Manage Roster Tool

Carlos Correa's newly minted $350,000,000 contract from the San Francisco Giants further brings into focus just how superstar contracts in MLB are going to continue to work - despite sharp increases in tax thresholds in the latest CBA. The 28-year old signed a 13 year contract that runs through his age 40 season, tying him with Bryce Harper & Giancarlo Stanton for the 2nd longest contracts in MLB history. Fernando Tatis, Jr.'s 14 year, $340M deal with the Padres remains the longest ever. We'll focus briefly on the twenty one MLB contracts of 10 years or more, with additional thoughts on the five 9-year contracts as well.

The Mike Trout Mountain
Despite a huge run of blockbuster contracts over the past 2 years, nobody has even approached the apex that is Mike Trout's money. Trout's $426.5M extension back in 2019 is still $61.5M more than any other contract. In fact, across the 4 major American sports, only Patrick Mahomes' $450M deal in Kansas City carries a higher total value than Trout (though the latter is fully guaranteed).

Positionally Speaking
11 of the 21 10+ year contracts belong to shortstops - 12 if you include Manny Machado. 5 of these deals belong(ed) to outfielders, 2 are 1st basemen, 2 are 3rd basemen, and Robinson Cano remains the only 2nd baseman of this elite list. Is the shortstop still as valuable as it was a decade ago? Will the unviersal DH start to make these types of contracts available to more positions?

The Twilight Years
MLB has seen 4 9+ year contracts this free agent season, totaling $1.29B. Three of those deals (Correa, Turner, Bogaerts) carry through the player's age 40 season. Aaron Judge's deal runs through his age 39 season. This is a departure from a recent run that carried end years at or around the age 37 season, as the Cano/Pujols/Cabrera deals really brought front offices across the league back down to earth. So why the sudden change of philsophy? Is it that teams are willing to take a chance on an extra $25M+ salary or two, versus having to deal with a potential luxury tax penalty scenario if the contract were shorter? Is it that players still feel like this is their one and only time to strike financially in this sport, and getting to age 40 is the ideal trophy?

Champion Pedigree
It's a long season, and a 26+ man roster, but generally speaking superstars in MLB get to the finish line at least once in their career. But does it happen more regularly before or after their big pay day? As with everything in sports, the results vary - but with this dataset specifically, a few notable points can be pulled out. Of the 26 contracts we're referencing here (9+ year deals), 9 (36%) of the players NEVER went to a World Series, 4 more went, but never won, and the remaining 13 (half) have at least one championship under their belt. Of those 13 World Series winners, only 4 won a World Series while playing on their big contract (Betts, Harper, A-Rod, Jeter x3). A large majority of players here were paid after winning a championship - and then never did it again.

All-Time 10+ Year MLB Contracts

All-Time 9 Year MLB Contracts

Related Links

• All-Time MLB Contracts
• MLB Free Agency
• MLB Team Payrolls

Starting Pitchers

Carlos Rodon (30)

Rodon has been rumored to all the big fish this winter, with the Yankees being the latest to put their ante into the pot. There might be a 7 year, $210M deal in his future.

Nathan Eovaldi (32)

The recent deal for Chris Bassitt probably takes the Blue Jays out of contention for Eovaldi, but he’ll be a (lesser) fall back plan for teams that swing and miss on Rodon. Bassitt’s $21M per year deal is a likely price point.

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Relief Pitchers

Adam Ottavino (37)

The Mets are poised to flip about 60% of their bullpen this offseason, with Ottavino being one of the more notable names on the market. The Phillies & Angels are prime landing spots, while a 2 year deal in the $12M range probably makes sense.

Matt Moore (33)

The hybrid pitcher is probably best suited as a middle reliever from here out, and he’s a worthy consideration based on 2022 numbers. Can he double his $2.5M salary from last season?

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1st Basemen

Trey Mancini (30)

Mancini started the offseason with an $18M projection, but the market for players of his type has fizzled out of the gate. He’ll likely need to consider something in the $12M-$14M range if he’s dead set on a multi-year contract. The Giants and Twins have needs, but don’t rule out a return to Baltimore by any means.

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2nd Basemen

Jean Segura (32)

Segura was a declining piece for the World Champion Phillies, but it makes sense for him to latch on to another contender for both depth and experience. The Blue Jays seem an excellent fit, with a 2 year, $10M valuation currently attached to him.

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Shortstop

Carlos Correa (28)

The biggest name left on the market is still making the rounds, with ties to San Francisco, Los Angeles, St. Louis, Chicago, & back to Minnesota all publicly available. It won’t be long before our next $300M+ contract is on the books.

Dansby Swanson (28)

Swanson actually hit more homers and carried a slightly higher WAR (5.57) than Correa last season, but he projects to sign a deal around half (6 years, $150Mish) of what the latter will bag. The Cubs seem to be the early favorites in the clubhouse, but don’t rule out a last minute matching offering from the Braves.

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3rd Base

Brandon Drury (30)

A complete 180 last season puts Drury’s offseason value near the $10M mark. Is there a 3 for $30M deal for him from Milwaukee or the Cubs?

Justin Turner (38)

A return to LA hasn’t been ruled out, but if Turner is seeking a multi-year guarantee, he’ll probably need to land elsewhere (MIL, DET, SF). The 38 year old still carries an $8M value in our system. 

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Outfielders

Andrew Benintendi (28)

The Yankees never really got the look they wanted from their big trade deadline acquisition, so a reunion makes sense. The 28 year old carries a $17M+ valuation, but with teams like Houston also involved, that price may increase.

Michael Conforto (29)

Missed all of 2022 with a shoulder injury but is still plenty valued on the open market. The Blue Jays, Cubs, & Rangers all make sense here, while a $20M total value guarantee is probably about right as he resets his career.

Michael Brantley (35)

Brantley’s injury-riddled 2022 impacted the Astros’ down the stretch, but that doesn’t mean they’ve quit the veteran outfielder. Plenty of big names (Atlanta, Toronto, St. Louis) have shown interest

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Catchers

Jorge Alfaro (29)

Alfaro was a 10+ HR player just a few years ago, but the power numbers have fallen off. The Rockies, Astros, and Giants all need help here, and something around the $2M mark won’t be too risky.

Gary Sanchez (30)

Still found a way to mash 16 HRs last season despite an on base percentage that continues to slide. There will be plenty of teams looking for a HR bat toward the tail end of free agency, and Sanchez at around the $5M mark will fit the bill.

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Designated Hitters

J.D. Martinez (35)

Teams are avoiding DHs like the plague right now, simply valuing every other position before “settling”. Someone’s going to be settling for a really nice player in Martinez, who carries a $15M valuation in our system despite the age and obvious power decline.

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It's December 9th, so we're only 11 months away from the 2023 tax window closing, but it's still the perfect time to assess our projected tax payrolls for each MLB team. At present time, 4 teams (NYM, NYY, PHI, SD) currently project north of the $233M threshold.

Last year's CBA instituted four tax tiers that affect the final bill. This year, those tiers range as so:

1. +$233M -> $253M
2. +$253M -> $273M
3. +$273M -> $293M
4. +$293M

The Padres & Phillies currently reside in Tier 1, the Yankees in Tier 2, & the Mets (handedly) live in Tier 4 - a tier named after the Mets' new owner. The Padres are set to be 3-peat tax offenders, but are only slightly over the Tier 1 threshold right now. The Phillies are projected to be repeat offenders but also currently live in the lowest tax penalty tier for 2023. The Yankees will be tax offender repeaters, and have already pushed into the second tax tier for 2023. The Mets will be tax repeaters for 2023, and are in line for the maximum amount of surcharge penalty - obviously.