The Los Angeles Angels continued their slow rebuild by acquiring OF Hunter Renfroe from the Milwaukee Brewers in exchange for young pitchers Janson Junk (RHP), Elvis Peguero (RHP), Adam Seminaris (LHP).

It’s the third notable move this offseason, following the acquisition of SS Giovanny Urshela from the Minnesota Twins, and the free agent signing of SP Tyler Anderson (3 years, $39M) away from the Dodgers.

Renfroe is headed for a 4th and final trip through arbitration this winter, projected to earn around $12M for the upcoming season. He posted 23 doubles, 29 homers, 72 RBIs & a 2.77 WAR last season for the Brewers, fairly consistent with his annual output over the past 6 years. He slots in immediately as the starting right fielder for LAA, alongside Mike Trout in CF, and Taylor Ward in LF.

Giovanny Urshela figures to be the day 1 starting shortstop for the Angels, projected to earn around $9.25M in his final arbitration season. The 31-year-old posted 27 doubles, 13 homers, 64 RBIs, and a 2.92 WAR last season in Minnesota.

Tyler Anderson had a career year on the mound for the Dodgers last season, cutting his ERA down to 2.57, the WHIP down to 1.00, while accumulating a 4.26 WAR across 178 innings. He currently projects as the #2 arm in the rotation behind Shohei Ohtani - barring another (likely) acquisition this winter. His 3 year deal comes with a flat $13M per season, which ranks 28th among starting pitcher pay right now.

The Angels now project toward a $206M tax payroll when including estimated arbitration & pre-arbitration salaries against their 40-man roster. With a threshold of $233M this season, this means around $26M of space to work with.

Justin Verlander can walk backwards into the Baseball Hall of Fame tomorrow if he’d like, but it appears the almost 40-year-old will continue his career, on the heels of his 3rd Cy Young wth the Astros in 2022.

Verlander joined the Astros at the 2017 waiver period deadline, finished out his contract in 2018, signed a 2 year, $66M extension thereafter, then followed that up with his most recent 2 year, $50M deal - that was cut in half when he opted out a few weeks ago.

In total, the former #2 overall draft pick by the Tigers has secured just under $300M across 18 seasons - and he’s not done yet.

The Next Contract

Let’s start with what the numbers say exclusively. By tossing Justin Verlander’s last three seasons (with 2021 a wash) statistically speaking into our algorithm, the number that spits back out is an historic $45.3M - exactly $2M more than the current MLB high $43.3M (Max Scherzer).

If we bring age into the conversation (and it seems impossible not to, despite the 2022 production), the only real precedent we have to bounce off of is Adam Wainwright, who has now signed back to back 1 year, $17.5M contracts for his age 40 & 41 seasons. But Adam Wainwright - despite excellent seasons in both 2021 & 2022 - isn’t Justin Verlander. If we just engage WAR alone, Wainwright’s last two years combine for 5.39, an excellent output. Verlander’s 2020 & 2022 combined? 12.88

If we just take the percent change on this WAR breakdown alone, Verlander should be making 60% more than Wainwright - or $30M flat. It’s probably a pretty fair number when taking all things into consideration (earned $33M 3 years ago, dropped to $25M due to the injury, split the difference for age 40).

But early reports from Verlander’s camp don’t appear to be “compromising”. In fact, the teams involved (Mets, Dodgers, Astros, etc…) are leading most to believe that an inflation adjusted version of Max Scherzer’s contract is much more likely than an inflation adjusted version of his own recent financials.

We’ll play along with the former storyline, as our math qualifies it. Verlander signs a 2 year, $90M contract with the Mets, including a $25M club option for 2025. 

The Ramifications

Jacob deGrom seems the player most likely to benefit from a top of the market Verlander contract as he seeks his own this winter. deGrom’s injury history is a major red flag right now, but it’s not stopping the Yankees, Braves and of course the Mets (to name a few), from doing their due diligence.

A Verlander deal in Queens almost certainly means deGrom’s tenure there is finished, but it also re-raises the stakes for his next destination. At $45.1M, the 34-year-old carries a market valuation just under that of Verlander’s, so a contract from one should directly lead to a higher contract for the other - despite the 6 year age difference.

Related Links

• 2023 MLB Free Agents

• Top 2023 Average Salaries

• 2023 Tax Payrolls

Jimmy Garoppolo’s return to San Francisco was questioned by many as just another misstep in the 49ers path to improving their QB1 position. But 11 weeks into the 2022 season (10 under Garoppolo’s reins) it’s hard not to readdress the elephant in the room.

At some point, the Niners will need to take this relationship for what it is - a match. Kyle Shanahan may want a more skilled player to run his offense, and every new draft class will offer up athletes that possess just that. But experience kills in American sports, and there’s no denying that Garoppolo’s understanding and comfort in this system is now unrivaled.

Furthermore, the addition of Christian McCaffrey makes a Jimmy Garoppolo-run offense even more potent, as it amplifies the short, quick passing attack that the 31 year old quarterback is most comfortable in.

The 2023 Outlook

With an expiring (yet growing) contract, and Trey Lance still seemingly the future of this roster, Garoppolo’s 2023 outlook is a complete unknown.

Trey Lance’s ankle injury (and subsequent surgery) will keep him out until the 2023 league year, but a full return is expected. Contractually, Lance holds a fully guaranteed 2 years, $6M plus a 5th year option for the 2025 season. The Niners have already paid him $25M.

Which teams might be interested? More than a few. Atlanta, Carolina, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, New England, New Orleans, both New Yorks, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, & Washington all have at least some need for a new QB1 over the next season or two. With 3 QBs projected into the first round this coming draft, and two more on the fringe, some of these teams will address their need via the traditional route. But a few here seem more inclined to drop in a veteran option: notably, the Jets, Commanders, & Buccaneers.

Should the 49ers consider keeping him? Common sense says the answer should be yes, but it still strongly feels like their internal answer is no. A healthy Trey Lance still (seemingly) provides this roster an ability to jump up another rung or two on the offensive ladder, and as a cost-controlled option, gives San Francisco flexibility to continue to add/retain pieces as needed. With that said - how many franchises would opt to let Garoppolo walk next March?

The Next Contract

Garoppolo’s numbers are never going to pop off the page - he’s just not built for that type of production, nor is the current offense he’s being asked to run. So mathematically speaking, Jimmy G won’t project to a top of the market contract, even though the Niners paid him as such back in 2018 on an annual average basis.

Our current predictive market value for Jimmy Garoppolo calculates to $28.1M, almost precisely where his last multi-year contract ($27.5M) came in. With a league salary cap expected to approach or exceed $220M next March, a simple cap adjusted version of his last contract average brings his number up to $34M, or a projected 4 years, $135M.

Should multiple teams be involved, Derek Carr's $40.5M annual average could easily be in play here, as is his 53% of total value practically guaranteed. All things considered, our logical prediction for Jimmy Garoppolo's next deal rings it at 4 years, $150M, $75M practically guaranteed, $45M guaranteed at signing.

The QB Market

Often, free agent contracts are only as big as the supply/demand curve allows for within a position - even quarterback. So who else might be drawing big dollars on the open market next March?

Geno Smith (SEA, 32)
The comeback story of the year will result in a hell of a pay raise for the former #39 overall selection back in 2013. It seems unlikely that the Seahawks will let Smith walk, but at least a few of the teams listed above should have interest, potentially even more so than Garoppolo. Smith projects almost identically to Garoppolo right now in our system, though teams may be less inclined to go more than a few years with the smaller sample size.

Tom Brady (TB, 45)
Remember him? The #11 rated QB according to PFF is in 1st place in the NFC South right now, and hasn’t said one way or another about his 2023 playing status. We’ll assume he continues, which puts him into the open market (his contract contains a no tag clause). Brady projects to a 2 year, $82M contract in our system, though the $30M paycheck he earned in 2022 is probably suffice for his next stop. Will the Buccaneers try to keep this thing together, despite obvious setbacks across the roster? Does Brady have interest in joining a third franchise? The Raiders owe Derek Carr $75M over the next two seasons, but can get out of that with a February release. Is this a logical next spot (and price) for Brady?

Taylor Heinicke (WSH, 29)
Heinicke may be doing exactly what he’s supposed to be doing - filling in admirably as needed. It’s hard to imagine an organization - even Washington- compensating him as a true QB1, though crazier things have happened. If he’s signed in this capacity, Heinicke projects to a near $20M per year contract.

Daniel Jones (NYG, 25)
Jones might be the next iteration of Jimmy Garoppolo, despite a #6 overall draft slot. It doesn’t appear as though the Giants are poised to retain him in any capacity - even the franchise tag (projected $32M). He’ll likely be searching for a “compete” scenario next March, with Jameis Winston’s 2 year, $14M deal in New Orleans a likely target.

Lamar Jackson (BAL, 25)
This is a non-conversation until it isn’t. All expectations are that the Ravens will slap an expensive exclusive franchise tag on Jackson this February, despite the obvious cap restrictions it comes with. The bigger conversation might be if Jackson will accept/play on the tag - or if a holdout/trade demand is forthcoming. If the latter is the case, he becomes the most coveted option not named CJ Stroud/Bryce Young for 2023.

Also Potentially
Derek Carr (LV, 31)
Ryan Tannehill (TEN, 34)
Jared Goff (DET, 28)
Carson Wentz (WSH, 29)
Baker Mayfield (CAR, 27)
Mitchell Trubisky (PIT, 28)
Jacoby Brissett (CLE, 29)
Sam Darnold (CAR, 25)
Zach Wilson (NYJ, 23)
Marcus Mariota (ATL, 29)
Andy Dalton (NO, 35)

Related Links

• Free Agent Quarterbacks
• Projected 2023 Cap Space
• Top 2023 Cap Hits

Russell Henley earns $1.48 million at World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba.

Top 5

1. Adam Svensson, $1,458,000

T2. Sahith Theegala, $612,900

T2. Brian Harman, $612,900

T2. Callum Tarren, $612,900

T5. Alex Smalley, $277,830

T5. Seamus Power, $353,500

T5. Chris Stroud, $353,500

T5. Cole Hammer, $353,500

T5. Joel Dahmen, $353,500

Full Results

NBA trade season is right around the corner. The early trade window opens on December 15, which is when the vast majority of players who signed deals over the offseason become trade-eligible. And if we’re closing in on trade season, that must mean it’s time for a fresh batch of Myles Turner trade rumors!

This is Year 8 for Turner, with all of them coming with the Indiana Pacers. For at least four or five of those years, he’s been one of the most-often mentioned players in trade rumors. The reasons for that are two-fold for Turner.

Keeping it on the floor first, Turner is a somewhat unique player. He has the ability to stretch the floor on offense, while protecting the rim on defense. That makes Turner fairly plug-and-play in most systems that NBA teams run.

Secondly, but of equal importance, Turner is on a very tradable contract. He’s in the final year of a four-year, $72 million rookie scale extension that he signed in 2018. Any NBA contract is tradable, but a deal for less than $20 million is generally very easy to match salary for.

Combine the production and the contract, and Turner is consistently in trade rumors. Then, factor in that he’ll only turn 27 years old in March, plus the Pacers being in a rebuild, and the rumor mill is hitting overdrive.

But…Turner is on an expiring contract. That means a new deal is coming soon. Traded or not, Myles Turner is only eight months (at most!) from getting a big new contract. What we’re going to do today is look at what that new contract might look like.

The Veteran Extension

Myles Turner is eligible through the end of the league year to sign a veteran extension with the Indiana Pacers. Because he’s on an expiring deal, Turner’s ability to extend with Indiana runs all the way through June 30.

Here’s what a maximum veteran extension would look like for Turner:

• 2023-24: $21,600,000
• 2024-25: $23,328,000
• 2025-26: $25,056,000
• 2026-27: $26,784,000
• Total: four years, $96,768,000

That’s a 120% raise off of Turner’s $18,000,000 salary for 2022-23, with 8% raises in the years after that.

At first glance, that doesn’t look bad. It’s nearly $100 million for Turner into his early-30s. But it’s well short of Turner’s maximum salary that he could collect as a free agent. In addition, with the cap projected to go way up over the next few years, Turner would be better off betting on himself than taking even a slightly under-market extension.

Re-signing with the Pacers as a free agent

Let’s say Myles Turner sticks in Indiana despite the rumors (he’s made it seven years already!) and the Pacers rebuild seems ahead of schedule. Maybe Turner will want to re-sign with Indiana.

The Pacers can offer him a max deal that would look like this:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $43,416,000
• 2025-26: $46,632,000
• 2026-27: $49,848,000
• 2027-28: $53,064,000
• Total: five years, $233,160,000

That’s the full 30% max Turner is eligible for with eight years or service. This deal also includes the maximum 8% raises for Turner.

An average annual value (AAV) of $46.6 million feels a bit steep for Turner. You’d have to believe he can become an All-NBA center to commit that much money to him at this point. But, we’ve now established the absolute top-end max we’re looking at for the Pacers big man.

Signing with another team as a free agent:

Continuing with our scenarios, let’s say Turner isn’t traded (again, he’s made it seven years already!), but he and/or the Pacers are ready to move on this summer. Turner will be an unrestricted free agent and here’s the max he could get from another team:

• 2023-24: $40,200,000
• 2024-25: $42,210,000
• 2025-26: $44,220,000
• 2026-27: $46,230,000
• Total: four years, $172,860,000

That’s still 30% of the cap, but the raises are only 5%. And, because Turner would be changing teams, he’d be limited to only signing a four-year deal. Players can only get a five-year contract when re-signing with their current team.

That’s an AAV of $43 million or so. If we compare to a four-year max from the Pacers, it’s a difference of about $2 million per season in terms of AAV. If a $43 million AAV still seems steep, remember that we’re setting max points here.

We’ve now got three max data points locked in: The Veteran Extension, max with the Pacers and max with another team. But there are a couple of other scenarios we need to consider for Turner, as well.

The Extend-and-Trade

You might have heard that Myles Turner is in trade rumors. (Just kidding! We know you know that.) But what if a team wanted Turner locked in for years beyond this season? The Pacers and the acquiring team, along with Turner, could agree on an extend-and-trade deal. It would look like this:

• 2022-23: $18,000,000
• 2023-24: $18,900,000
• 2024-25: $19,845,000
• Total: three years, $56,745,000

We included the current year for Turner, since an extend-and-trade is extremely restrictive. In an extend-and-trade, the total length of the contract can only be three seasons. In this case, Turner can only add two new years onto his current deal. In addition, raises in an extend-and-trade are limited to 5%.

As you can see, Turner would be adding (in relative terms) very little to his current salary in an extend-and-trade. Essentially, Turner would have to really, really want to be heading to the acquiring team to do a deal like this. A more likely scenario would be Turner is traded to a new team and simply signs a new contract as a free agent in July.

Extending after a trade

If Myles Turner was to be traded to another team, he could still extend with that team. Unfortunately, he’d have to wait six months to sign an extension which is larger than the extend-and-trade scenario laid out above. That makes timing really, really important to watch as to when Turner would theoretically be traded.

And, in that extension, the acquiring team would still be capped at offering the Veteran Extension. That contract would look exactly the same as laid out above.

The Renegotiate-and-Extend

It’s extremely rare for an NBA contract to be renegotiated. First, a player must be extension-eligible. That’s a fairly small list of players each season. Of that list, the player must be on a team that has cap space available in order to complete the renegotiation portion of the renegotiate-and-extend.

Going back to 2015, only three players have completed a renegotiate-and-extend deal. Robert Covington did a four-year deal with the Philadelphia 76ers in 2017. And Danilo Gallinari (two years) and Wilson Chandler (four years) signed renegotiate-and-extend deals with the Denver Nuggets in 2015.

Myles Turner fits both of these criteria at this moment. Turner is extension-eligible and the Indiana Pacers are sitting on up to $30 million in available cap space.

Pegging what an renegotiate-and-extend could look like is a bit tricky. Because the team would use existing cap space, they aren’t really limited to just the 120% allowed in a Veteran Extension.

That means it’s all about negotiation on that first-year salary, but that also has an impact on the subsequent years as well.

In a renegotiation-and-extend deal, a player is eligible to take their contract all the way up to their maximum salary, assuming the team has enough available cap space to do so. In this case, Turner makes $18 million for this season, with a maximum salary of $37,096,500. That’s a difference of roughly $19.1 million, which the Pacers are certainly able to give Turner given their existing cap space.

In full, if Turner did a renegotiate-and-extend deal for the max he’s allowed, it would look like this:

• 2022-23: $37,096,500
• 2023-24: $40,064,220
• 2024-25: $43,031,940
• 2025-26: $45,999,660
• 2026-27: $48,967,380
• Total: five years, $215,159,700

This contract would take Turner’s salary from $18,000,000 to his max of $37,096,500 for this season. Then the additional years would have an 8% raise on them. Once again, the renegotiation to the max allowable for Turner is made possible by the Pacers still having up to $30 million in cap space available.

It’s important to note that the above is the max Turner could get in a renegotiate-and-extend deal. The Pacers and Turner could agree on any number in terms of renegotiated 2022-23 salary up to his max, and they could also agree to deal that runs less than five total years, or less than 8% raises.

In addition, Indiana and Turner could agree to get really funky with a new deal and lower the first season of the extension by up to 40% off of the renegotiated 2022-23 salary. That would bring Turner’s deal in the first year of the extension in 2023-24 down to around $22 million. Essentially, Turner would get a bonus in this current league year, using Indiana’s leftover cap space, and then tack on a few years at a more reasonable number moving forward.

Note: Turner can only do a renegotiation-and-extension with Pacers.

Summary

We’ve given five options for Myles Turner’s next deal. We can eliminate the Veteran Extension and the Extend-and-Trade as viable options, as they aren’t going to pay Turner enough for him to sign either of those deals. He’d simply be leaving too much money on the table.

That leaves three realistic options: Turner re-signs with the Pacers, leaves Indiana in free agency or does a Renegotiate-and-Extend deal to stay in the only NBA home he’s ever known.

Despite the fact that Turner is constantly in trade rumors, it’s important to note that he’s never actually been traded. There has to be something to that. Players rarely make it through years and years of rumors to end up staying with a team. When that happens, it’s generally because the player and the team have no desire to end their relationship.

With that in mind, a Renegotiate-and-Extend may be Turner’s best option. It doesn’t rule out a trade long-term, but it would increase the odds of Turner sticking around in Indiana. The key is to keep Turner a viable trade asset on the next contract.

If the Pacers have no other plans for their nearly $30 million in remaining cap space, why not use $19 million or so to bring Turner up to his max of $37.1 million for this season? Think of that as a bonus for his years of service to the Pacers and for signing what will likely be a balanced (read: team-friendly) extension in the subsequent years. And it’s those subsequent years that matter.

Here’s a proposal for a deal that could work for both Turner and Indiana:

• 2022-23: $37,096,500 (renegotiated up from $18,000,000)
• 2023-24: $24,000,000
• 2024-25: $25,920,000
• 2025-26: $27,840,000
• 2026-27: $29,760,000
• Total: five years, $144.6 million

This deal would see Turner get a bump up to his full max for this season using some of Indiana’s available cap space. Then, he would add on what is essentially a four-year, $107.5 million extension. That’s an AAV of almost $27 million per year. That’s kind of right in the sweet spot between the $25 and $30 million per year value that seems fair for turner on his next deal.

If you prefer, add the $19 million or so extra from the renegotiation portion of the deal, and Turner would get roughly $126 million in new money. That would bring the AAV for the new years to about $31.5 million. Just over the target range, but without getting crazy.

The other option for the Pacers, and perhaps a preferable one, would be to reverse the cap hits on the extension. That deal would look like this:

• 2022-23: $37,096,500 (renegotiated up from $18,000,000)
• 2023-24: $29,760,000
• 2024-25: $27,840,000
• 2025-26: $25,920,000
• 2026-27: $24,000,000
• Total: five years, $144.6 million

The overall money remains the same, but Turner takes just less than an 8% decline in salary year over year. That way, when Turner is approaching his early-30s in the later years of the deal, the cap hits are reasonable for a player of that age and he remains tradable from Indiana’s point of view.

Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers are in an interesting spot. Trade rumors will continue to be floated, probably even after Turner signs a new deal. But because the rare circumstances exist to do a Renegotiate-and-Extend deal, it would behoove the Pacers and Turner to take advantage and at least extend their partnership for a little while longer.

14 players were handed a Qualifying Offer for the 2023 season: 2 were accepted, 12 were declined. Our thoughts on the financial futures for each player as we head toward the winter months.

Dansby Swanson (ATL, SS, 28)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Swanson will hit the open market with plenty of offers as he figures to be the lower costing elite shortstop available this winter. He popped 52 homers across the past two seasons, and projects to a 6 year, $150M contract in our system.

Willson Contreras (CHC, C, 30)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Contreras hits the market as the top available catcher, and all of the big boy contenders are in. He mashed 43 homers across the past two seasons, and projects to a 4 year, $65M deal in our system.

Tyler Anderson (LAD, SP, 32)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Not only did Anderson reject the Dodgers’ offer - he turned around and signed a 3 year, $39M contract across town with the Angels a minute later. LAA is hoping 2022 wasn’t just an anomaly (2.57 ERA, 1 WHIP, 4.26 WAR), as they need quality pitching about as much as any team in the game.

Trea Turner (LAD, SS, 29)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Maybe the most complete player on the open market this winter, Turner has been linked to a dozen teams already - including the Yankees and Mets. The 5 tool stud projects to a 6 year, $200M contract in our system, but there’s no reason he doesn’t demand $300M if he wants to go longer.

Joc Pederson (SF, OF, 31)

Qualifying Offer: Accepted

This seemed a no-brainer from the get-go, as Pederson played out a 1 year, $6M deal for the Giants in 2022 - and posted one of his best statistical seasons to date. There’s a clear fit between the two sides, and if a bat like Aaron Judge as added as lineup protection, Pederson’s 2023 free agency (without a QO attached) could be very rewarding.

Carlos Rodon (SF, SP, 29)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Rodon opted out of a $22.5M salary for 2022, so there’s clearly multi-year guarantee in mind here. He won’t be disappointed as every contender from St. Louis to the Dodgers to both New York franchises will have a significant stake in his future. He’s a 6 year, $195M player in our system.

Chris Bassitt (NYM, SP, 33)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Bassitt had an excellent season in Queens and rightfully rejected a $19M option for the upcoming campaign. He’ll find at least this much on an average annual basis over a multi-year contract, with 3 years, $61M being our projected baseline.

Jacob deGrom (NYM, SP, 34)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

It’s tough to tell if deGrom is simply ready to test (and accept) his place on the open market, or if the Mets simply aren’t willing to offer the financial figures it’s going to take to keep their ace based on his previous injury history. Will Steve Cohen cave and hand out the 3 year, $135M contract we peg him to? If he doesn’t - someone will.

Brandon Nimmo (NYM, OF, 29)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Nimmo isn’t a household name, but he’ll be one of the most coveted position players on the open market this year (despite a down year across the board in 2022). The speedy, top of the lineup, high-energy, strong defensive center fielder is likely to bag around $22M per year this winter.

Martin Perez (TEX, SP, 32)

Qualifying Offer: Accepted

A little bit of a surprise, as many thought Perez’ shocker 2022 production would have turned into a multi-year guarantee. Clearly the early offers weren’t jumping off the page, so a near $20M salary to stick with a situation that worked well, and a chance to hit the market again next winter, is a perfectly plausible decision.

Xander Bogaerts (BOS, SS, 30)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Bogaerts left 3 years, $60M on the table when he opted out of a mess of a Boston situation. He’ll be seeking a deal around $30M per year, and the Cardinals, Cubs, and Phillies appear ready to strike.

Nathan Eovaldi (BOS, SP, 32)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

If the Red Sox were in better shape, this is probably an offer that gets accepted. Boston is still trying to lock down Eovaldi to a multi-year deal, but other suitors are certainly getting involved now as well. He’ll likely see less than $19.6M per year on his next contract, but 2 years, $33M in a better situation is likely more attractive across the board.

Aaron Judge (NYY, OF, 30)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

12 teams are likely offering him $300M right now. Brian Cashman probably processed the qualifying offer and rejection papers simultaneously. Judge is an 8 year, $303M player in our system, but a bidding war gets this thing into the middle 300s pretty easily.

Anthony Rizzo (NYY, 1B, 33)

Qualifying Offer: Rejected

Rizzo had offers from good teams (San Diego, Houston), but smartly chose to stay in the Bronx on a 2 year, $40M guarantee (3rd year club option that can raise the deal to $51M). He’s not the player he once was, so finding a fit at age 33 seems like a situation you want to remain in.

When NBA teams lose a player for the season due to injury, they’re limited in how they can replace that player. There is no injured reserve in the NBA. Unless teams are down several players, they don’t get an extra roster spot.

The NBA functions under a soft cap, but with a hard cap limiter that can be triggered in some situations. That can make it hard to sign a replacement player. By the time the season starts, the vast majority of teams are already operating over the cap, with limited resources available to sign a player.

There are always trades, but in that case, you might be robbing Peter to pay Paul and creating another roster issue for yourself.

However, the NBA does have one tool that teams can apply for when they lose a player for the season. The Disabled Player Exception is an exception that teams can be granted to help replace an injured player, but there are some restrictions.

Here’s a quick Q&A as to what a DPE is and how they can and can’t be used.

How do teams get a Disabled Player Exception (DPE)?

Teams have to petition the NBA in order to be granted a DPE. It’s not an automatic thing when a player is injured. A team must apply to the NBA for a DPE.

From there, it’s up to either an NBA-designated doctor or the league’s Fitness to Play panel to determine the extent of the injury to the player the DPE is being asked for. If the determination is made that the injured player is substantially more likely than not to miss the rest of the season, the DPE is granted to the team that petitioned for it.

Teams have until January 15 of each season to apply for a DPE. If a player is ruled out for the season after that, teams cannot petition for a DPE. If a player is deemed to be out for the subsequent season, the team will need to reapply during that next league year for a new DPE.

How much is a DPE for in terms of salary?

The DPE is worth one-half of the injured player’s salary, with a maximum value equal to that of the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception for the season in which the DPE is granted.

Example: If the injured player’s salary for whom the DPE is granted has a salary of $10 million for the 2022-23, the DPE value would be worth $5 million.

If the injured player was making $30 million for 2022-23, the DPE value would be capped at $10,490,000, which is equivalent to the Non-Taxpayer MLE for the 2022-23 season.

How can a DPE be used?

The DPE is a unique exception from other salary cap exceptions. Exceptions like the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level, Taxpayer Mid-Level, Room and Bi-Annual Exceptions are signing exceptions only. They must be used to sign a free agent(s).

Traded Player Exceptions (TPE) can be used in two ways: teams can trade for a player (or players) whose salary fits inside of the TPE or they can use the TPE to claim a player off waivers whose salary fits inside of the TPE.

The DPE is unique in that it can be used to sign a player, trade for a player or to claim a player off waivers. However, there are restrictions with the DPE that do not exist for the other exceptions.

What are the restrictions to a DPE?

Unlike the signing exceptions (NTMLE, Tax MLE, Room and BAE), the DPE can only be used to sign a player to a remainder-of-season contract.

The remainder-of-season condition also exists in trades and waiver claims as well. If a team trades for a player or claims that player off waivers, they have to be on an ending (commonly called expiring) contract. And there cannot be an option year after, either. It must be a true ending contract.

In addition, the DPE can also only be used to acquire one player. Unlike several of the signing exceptions and TPEs, the DPE cannot be used to acquire more than one player.

Essentially, teams are granted the DPE to replace the one injured player for the remainder of that current season only.

For re-signing purposes, teams do inherit whatever applicable form of Bird Rights would come after acquiring a player via a DPE.

Do you get an additional roster spot when granted a DPE?

No. Teams are still bound by the maximum of 15 players on standard contracts.

In a normal, non-COVID-impacted season, the only way teams can gain extra roster spots is via the Hardship Exemption. If a team has at least four players out for at least three regular season games, they can petition the NBA for a Hardship Exemption, which would grant the team an extra roster spot.

Technically, a team could fill a Hardship roster spot via a DPE. However, when that fourth player is ready to return from injury or illness, the team would need to get back into roster compliance by waiving or trading a player to get back to 15 players on standard contracts.

When does a DPE expire?

Unlike signing exceptions, which expire at the end of the regular season, and TPEs, which have a one-year expiration date from the date of creation, a DPE can only be used through March 10.

The idea with the DPE is to give a team an opportunity to add a player through the trade deadline and the early part of what is now commonly called “buyout season”.

A DPE will also expire when used. A DPE is also rendered void if the injured player returns or if the injured player is traded to another team.

If a team only uses a portion of a DPE, the unused portion expires, as the DPE can only be used to acquire one player.

Does a DPE prorate in value as the season goes along?

No. Unlike a signing exception, the DPE always retains its full value until it expires or is used.

What happens if a DPE is used and then the injured player returns?

Nothing. The player acquired via the DPE is unaffected. This is basically seen a stroke of good fortune that a player thought to be out for the remainder of the season was able to return.

Reminder: Because no roster spot is created through a DPE, there would not need to be corresponding roster move for the injured player to return.

Can you trade for an injured player and then apply for a DPE?

No. The player must have been injured while under contract to the team in order for that team to apply for a DPE.

Does a DPE count against the salary cap and luxury tax?

Yes, when used to acquire a player, whatever portion of a DPE is used will count against both the salary cap and the luxury tax.

In addition, if a team is hard capped at the tax apron, they cannot exceed the apron via use of a DPE. A hard-capped team is still required to have a team salary that is no higher than that of the tax apron.

Does a DPE offer any sort of short or long-term salary relief for the injured player?

No. There is a process under which teams can petition to have a player’s salary removed due to career-ending injury. But that process is independent of the DPE process.

Do any teams currently have DPEs available?

The Boston Celtics have a DPE of $3,239,500 which was granted for Danilo Gallinari.

There are no other current DPEs available for use.

What are some recent cases where a DPE was used?

In 2017-18, after Gordon Hayward broke his left leg on opening night, the Boston Celtics were granted a DPE of $8,406,000. That was the equivalent of that season’s Non-Taxpayer MLE, as Hayward’s salary for that season was nearly $30 million.

Boston used that DPE to sign Greg Monroe for $5 million after he was waived by the Phoenix Suns.

Is a petition for a DPE ever declined?

Yes. Last season, the Chicago Bulls petitioned for a DPE for Patrick Williams after he tore ligaments in his wrist early in the 2021-22 season. The NBA denied the application, as it was deemed Williams had a chance to return for that season. That proved prescient, as Williams did return in late-March.

In addition, the Indiana Pacers had also applied for a DPE for Edmond Sumner last season. However, Sumner was traded by Indiana before that DPE was granted, which rendered the application void.

The Raiders locked in 5 players to contract extensions this offseason, to the tune of $439M in total value. Of that, $227M is considered to be practically guaranteed, with $108M fully guaranteed at signing. If we dive even deeper, we learn that the 2023 season isn't 100% guaranteed for any of these new contracts.

With Las Vegas' season floundering, the hot stove will soon be full of future predictions for the state of this roster going forward. How safe are these 5 contracts heading toward 2023?

Derek Carr

3 years, $121,500,000

Carr’s latest extension carries $65.2M of potential guarantees - but only $25M at signing (his 2022 compensation).

This is a contract to watch in the coming months, as it truly can be a 1 year, $25M deal in its simplest form. If he’s healthy, the Raiders can release Carr before February 15th, owing him no additional salary, while taking on a measly $5.6M dead cap hit ($29.2M saved). After this date, his $33M salary for 2023, + $7.5M of 2024 compensation become fully guaranteed. All $40M of this is currently guaranteed for injury right now.

Davante Adams

5 years, $140,000,000

The Raiders gave up a 1st and 2nd round pick to bring on Adams, both from the 2022 draft. They turned around and handed him a 5 year, $140M contract that included over $65M guaranteed - but only $22.75M guaranteed at signing.

Like Carr’s contract, there’s an out after 2022, but the dead cap that remains ($31.4M) with Las Vegas to trade Adams next March seems too rich to take on - even if the draft pick haul would be enticing. Even if the Raiders start over at the QB position, having a player of Adams’ ability makes sense - at least for a minute.

Maxx Crosby

4 years, $94,000,000

$26.5M of the $53M practically guaranteed on this contract is fully locked in at signing, including a $10.05M roster bonus for 2023. When March 17th rolls around, another $26.5M fully guaranteed (2023 salary + 2024 salary).

Crosby’s a centerpiece to build around regardless of who’s coaching or playing quarterback, and this deal isn’t too much for any franchise to tolerate. 

Darren Waller

3 years, $51,000,000

Las Vegas’ good-faith extension for Waller appears to be a disastrous decision as they reportedly tried to shop the 30 year old at the trade deadline, then placed him on the IR a few weeks later. $8.25M of his 2023 salary is already fully guaranteed, with another $2.75M set to lock on March 17th. Will they look to find a suitor for a 1 year, $11M guarantee? If so, the Raiders will take on just a $660,000 dead cap hit for 2023  - nearly $12M of savings.

Hunter Renfrow

2 years, $32,000,000

Renfrow’s 3 year contract comes with $14.5M guaranteed at signing, including a $4.32M roster bonus in 2023. His $6.5M salary for next season fully locks in on March 17th. Like Adams, it’s likely Renfrow sticks through 2023. The deal contains no guarantee for the 2024 season.

Russell Henley earns $1.48 million at World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba.

Top 5

1. Tony Finau, $1.512,000

2. Tyson Alexander, $915,600

3. Ben Taylor, $579.600

T4. Trey Mullinax, $353,500

T4. Alex Smalley, $353,500

T4. Alex Noren, $353,500

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