The 111-win Dodgers hit the offseason much sooner than anyone expected, and now fact a few difficult (and potentially expensive) decisions. How much will LA choose to run it back?

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Julio Urias (SP, 26)

Urias is headed for a final year of arbitration, scheduled to earn around $13.5M in 2022. He’s posted back to back Cy Young consideration seasons, including a 2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP this past campaign. He projects to a 6 year, $133M extension in our system.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Prospects

The Dodgers will be in the market for a bonafide Starting Pitcher this winter (especially with Walker Buehler shelved until 2024). If LA is going to reel in a Pablo Lopez type player, it’ll cost high profile youngsters. Ryan Pepiot could be a package centerpiece.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Cody Bellinger (OF, 27, $18M)

The former NL MVP has fallen off of a cliff since receiving the honor, and it’s impossible to imagine the Dodgers keeping him around at a projected $18M price tag. Will another team bite via trade? Possibly. But most will wait out the non-tender move from LA before considering his services.

A strong finish to the regular season paid off with a deep postseason run for the Padres, who at the very least justified their recent moves to cap off the year. 2023's going to be expensive, no matter how they slice it. Can they add a piece or two to get them to the finish line?

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Robert Suarez (RP, 32)

Suarez holds a $5M player option but is largely expected to opt out of it and hit the open market. A late bloomer, he found his footing in the middle of the Padres pen this past season, and with 3 other arms around him headed for free agency, San Diego should consider keeping Suarez from walking. He’s a 2 year, $13M player in our system, but it might take a 3rd year to keep him from the market.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

None. This team might be fresh out of trades after a wild 3 years. But never say never.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Jorge Alfaro (C, 29, $3.3M)

Alfaro handled DH duties more than not as Austin Nola took over behind the plate for the Padres. It seems likely that San Diego can operate without him as he approaches a final year in arbitration. Especially if it saves them a few million.

The Giants finished 3rd in the NL West last year, but they immediately become one of the must-watch teams of the winter, as they've been set as the betting favorite to land Aaron Judge this offseason. Will that acquisition be enough to leap the Padres & Dodgers in front of them?

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Logan Webb (SP, 26)

Webb has gotten better every year, posting a 2.90 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 31 2022 starts. With Carlos Rodon heading for free agency (though a return to SF should make sense for both sides), Webb is likely to be vaulting into the SP1 role going forward. He’s arbitration eligible for the first time this season, and projects to a 5 year, $120M extension in our system.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Mike Yastrzemski (OF, 32)

Yastrzemski is eligible for round two of four arbitration salaries this winter, projected to earn around $6M. His power numbers dipped quite a bit from a breakout 2021 campaign, and the Giants clearly have much bigger fish in mind to replace him.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Zack Littell (RP, 27, $900k)

A strong 2021 campaign was not repeated this past season (5.08 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). He’s out of options and likely seeking a new team this winter.

Arizona is nowhere close to ready to contend in this division, but the young pieces starting to surface are extremely promising. There's a plethora of outfield talent in this system. If some of it can be flipped for MLB-ready starting pitching, the wins could start to pile up.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Corbin Carroll (OF, 22)

Put Carroll in conversation of “players who could get a huge contract extension before ever taking a MLB at bat”. The 21 year old outfielder has 600 minor league plate appearances, and he’s gotten better at every level. Luis Robert’s 6 year, $50M deal in Chicago seems a likely starting point here, though Carroll may want a year in the big league’s to show his talents before signing anything. Don’t let the current MLB standings fool you. Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, and recently drafted Dru Jones are all legit positional talents, and 6 of Arizona’s Top 10 prospects are pitchers. This is a team prepping for a run.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Christian Walker (1B, 32)

With two years of arbitration remaining, and a projected $7.4M salary for 2023, This isn’t a “must happen” situation by any means, but the D-Backs do have a really strong crop of position players ready to rise up from the lower levels. If the name of the game is bringing in big league pitching to complement them, then selling high on a player like Walker has plenty of value.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Keynan Middleton (RP, 29, $1.7M

Middleton has been around the 5 ERA mark for 3 straight seasons, with negative WAR values to boot. His final arbitration salary shouldn’t break the bank, but an upgrade for baseball reasons seems the best path forward.

The Rockies spent big both in free agency & in retaining their own players prior to 2022, and were rewarded with a 68 win performance, 43 games out of the division lead. They now project to own the 9th highest tax payroll in MLB, and are already rumored to notable pending free agents.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Brendan Rodgers (2B, 26)

Rodgers has probably done enough in back to back seasons to be considered as the Rockies’ 2B for 4-5 more seasons, including a 4.2 WAR to finish 2022. He’s likely never going to live up to a #3 overall draft selection, but an extension in the $10M-$12M per year range probably isn’t out of line.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Randal Grichuk (OF, 31)

Grichuk was brought over from Toronto with hopes of adding power to the outfield, but he didn’t deliver as such. Colorado will assuredly be active in the free agent market for home runs, and with the Blue Jays paying nearly 50% of his $9.3M final salary, Grichuk should be on the trade block.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Garrett Hampson (SS, 28, $2M)

With top prospect Ezequiel Tovar (SS) now at the MLB level, Colorado can (and should) start to trim some of the fat off wherever possible. Hampson’s not an overpay at $2M, but with little production in 2022, cutting him loose is still the better business option.

The Cardinals have been an excellent regular season team over the past decade, but have converted that into very little postseason success, including another early bounce out in 2022. Much of this roster will be retained, though a shakeup could be coming at the middle of the infield.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Miles Mikolas (SP, 34)

Mikolas posted his most productive (and healthiest) season since 2018, and enters 2023 on an expiring contract. He hasn’t lived up to his $17M per year paycheck for much of the past few seasons, but a short-term extension at a lesser price to keep him in the fold might make sense.

Tommy Edman (2B, 27)

Edman has now posted back-to-back strong seasons, averaging 35 doubles, 12 HRs, 56 RBIs and a 5 WAR per year. He’ll begin his arbitration process this winter, projected to earn around $2.3M for 2023, but if the Cardinals have seen enough, buying out arbitration and 2-3 years of free agency seems a good play here.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Paul DeJong (SS, 29)

Probably wishful thinking here, as DeJong carries $11M guaranteed remaining on his contract ($9M this year, + a $2M buyout for 2024). Paying this down a bit to buy a more useful asset (a catcher perhaps) seems viable.

Dakota Hudson (SP, 28)

Hudson is headed for arbitration 2, projected to earn around $3.5M in 2023, but his future is in question after an up and down 2022. He started 26 games for the Cardinals last year, but was also optioned to AAA down the stretch. If there isn’t trade value for him this winter, he’s a non-tender candidate as well.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Alexander Reyes (RP, 28)

Injuries and inconsistencies have plagued Reyes’ career. He came into the league as a starter, was given a chance to close games, and now sits somewhere in the middle, entering the final year of arbitration. He’s projected to earn the same $2.85M salary as last season, but even that seems too risky to move forward with.

Chris Stratton (RP, 32)

He projects to earn north of $3M in his final arbitration year, but a 4.2 ERA and 1.5 WHIP likely has St. Louis thinking otherwise.

Injuries to the rotation sent the Brewers into a deep fade down the stretch, and they capped that off by trading long-time closer Josh Hader to the Padres. David Stearns, President of Baseball Operations, has since stepped down, putting the immediate future of this roster in a bit of flux - despite a pretty locked in core heading toward the winter.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Corbin Burnes (SP, 28)

Burnes has established himself as a bonafide ace in this league, posting another strong campaign (2.94 ERA, .965 WHIP, 243 Ks in 33 starts). His second trip through arbitration projects to pay him over $12M, but the Brewers should be thinking long-term here this offseason. An offer around 5 years, $120M could suffice his final two seasons of arbitration + three first free agency years.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Rowdy Tellez (1B, 27)

Tellez tagged 35 homers and 89 RBIs in his first full season at the MLB level, and projects to earn north of $5M in his second arbitration season. Certainly this is quality bang for buck - but the Brewers will be looking to shed payroll anywhere possible this winter, and selling high on a player like Tellez could bring back viable assets & save a few dollars.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Brent Suter (RP, 33, $3.1M)

Suter is headed for a 4th and final trip through arbitration this winter, which projects to a $3.1M salary for the 2023 season. He found himself at the bottom of the Brewers’ bullpen in 2022, which signals he’s overpriced for his role.

Some may be surprised to learn that the Cubs finished 3rd in the NL Central last season, after months of subtracting notable players. They're still a ways away from contention, but they certainly turned a corner in 2022, and holding on to slugger Ian Happ seems a sign that they have found a few pieces to develop a core around.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Drew Smyly (SP, 34)

Smyly holds a $10M mutual option this winter, but it’s been reported recently that both sides are interested in something multi-year if the price is right. He posted a 3.47 ERA in 22 starts last season, which calculated to a near 2 WAR. Merrill Kelly’’s 2 years, $18M contract (+ a 3rd year club option) in Arizona seems a target for this extension.

Ian Happ (OF, 28)

Happ is entering his final year of team control this winter, scheduled to cash in around $11M in his 3rd trip through arbitration. The Cubs may want to keep him on this expiring status in order to keep him a strong trade candidate through July, but if they believe he’s a piece to build around going forward (and his 4.43 WAR last season agrees), then a multi-year extension should certainly be in play. 5 years, $90M seems his floor right now.

RELEASE CANDIDATE(S)

Jason Heyward (OF, 33)

The Cubs have come out publicly with their intent to buyout the remaining 1 year, $22M on Heyward’s contract. It’ll signal the end of one of the more unsuccessful free agent blockbuster contracts in MLB history, as Heyward will have cashed in over $150M in 8 seasons.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Franmil Reyes (DH, 27, $5.8M

Reyes latched on after being DFA’ed by Cleveland, and spent the rest of the season as Chicago’s primary DH. He posted average numbers & a high strikeout rate, which likely puts his $6M projected salary in question.

Steven Brault (RP, 30, $1.75M)

Brault finds himself at the bottom of the bullpen currently, and appeared in only 9 games last season. He’s not overly expensive at a projected $1.75M, but the Cubs may few him as a minimum player right now.

It wasn't a total disaster of a season for Pittsburgh, despite a tie for last place in the NL Central. For the first time in a few seasons, the Pirates might be seeing a light at the end of the tunnel as it pertains to young players that could be developing into a core.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

None. Young SS Oneil Cruz certainly had a breakout campaign, but there are too many holes in his game to consider shelling out just yet. On the mound, Mitch Keller nearly cut his 2021 ERA in half, but he doesn't yet project to be a top of the rotation pitcher.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

David Bednar (RP, 28)

Bednar was rumored to be moved at the deadline, but Pittsburgh held onto him. They’ll certainly be fielding calls again this winter, but with 4 years of team control to go, they should be in no rush to accept a less than overpay offer.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Robert Stephenson (RP, 29, $2M)

Saw action in 58 games last season, posting a 5.43 ERA, 1.3 WHIP for his efforts. Much of this Pirates bullpen behind Bednar will be upgraded this or next winter.

Kevin Newman (2B, 29, $3M)

Newman improved on what was an awful 2021, but not enough to be considered as a multi-year option for the Pirates. It’s possible there’s a lowball trade out there for this scenario, but if not, an outright non-tender seems to be the way to go.

The Reds bottomed out in 2022 both from a roster & a winning standpoint. The cupboards are still pretty bare heading into the winter months, though a few young arms (Lodolo/Green) could quickly turn things in their favor. Will they spend to bulk up the lineup though?

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

None. This isn’t an organization ready to solidify anyone as their “next core”, though starting pitchers Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene, & Graham Ashcraft could be part of that group this time next year. Reliever Alexis Diaz (Edwin’s brother) led the team in WAR, and has a good chance of holding down the 9th inning role in 2023.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Nick Senzel (3B, 28)

It just hasn’t clicked. Senzel posted his worst campaign to date, finishing 2022 with a -1.25 WAR in Cincy. The one bright spot here is that there appear to be plenty of teams in need of a 3B next season, with a free agent/trade market that remains thin, to say the least. Will an organization try to convince themselves they can be a “fixer”? Senzel is arbitration eligible through 2025, including a projected $2M salary this season.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Aristides Aquino (OF, 28, $1.75M)

The salary isn’t daunting, but three straight seasons with an average below .200 is. The Reds need to shake things up in the lineup, and little moves like this can go a long way in turning things around.

Buck Farmer (RP, 31, $1.4M)

Farmer finished 2022 at the bottom of the Cincy bullpen, and enters a fourth and final time through arbitration this winter. He posted a sub-4 ERA in 2022, but a change of scenery probably does both well here. He’s an outside trade candidate as well (especially in July).

The Braves went on a torrid run through the second-half of 2022 to surpass the Mets and grab another NL East title, only to have their repeat chances dashed by the Phillies a few weeks later. The Braves have been locking up their young talent for the better part of 3 seasons now, and but there's a large SS hole to fill this winter.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Max Fried (SP, 28)

Over the past three seasons, Fried is averaging a 2.68 ERA, 159 ERA+, 1.054 WHIP, and 186 strikeouts per 162 games. He’s eligible for two more years of arbitration, including a projected $12M+ salary for 2023. He projects to a 6 year, $140M contract in our system currently.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Kyle Muller (SP, 25)

Muller hit the big league roster for just 3 days in 2022, and the Braves’ rotation is really rounding into form above him. With less than 1 year of service, the team control clock on Muller hasn’t even begun yet, so there should be plenty of trade value in shopping him this winter.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Silvino Bracho (RP, 30, $1.2M)

Bracho is out of options. If Atlanta thinks they can replace him with a younger more flexible arm, they’ll favor that over the $1M+ arbitration salary.

Guillermo Heredia (OF, 32, $1.1M)

A role/depth player at his core, Heredia has remained cheap for 3 years now, and projects to stick at around the $1M mark for 2023, his final year of arbitration. He’s out of options, so there’s a chance the Braves opt to replace this roster spot.

The Mets were one of the best teams in the National League until their late season fade into oblivion. The page turn to the offseason doesn't offer much relief, as 4/5ths of their rotation, and the 7-8-9 pitchers in their bullpen are all slated for free agency.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Pete Alonso (1B, 28)

Pete’s now put together back to back seasons that prove he’s more than just a HR Derby champion, posting a combined 8.2 WAR since 2021. He holds two more years of arbitration, scheduled to around $12.5M for the 2023 season. He projects to a 10 year, $328M contract in our system.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

James McCann (C, 33)

McCann’s 4 year, $40M contract has been a bit of a disaster, and the 2 years, $24M remaining on it certainly doesn’t help. The Mets will certainly have to eat a large portion of this deal to find a buyer, but with youngster Francisco Alvarez now in the fold, & Tomas Nido a Gold Glove finalist, it’s the right time to bite down and move on.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Dominic Smith (OF/1B, 28, $4M)

Smith was demoted to AAA for much of the 2022 season, and with a $4M arbitration salary sitting in front of him, is a classic non-tender candidate for 2023.

The NL Pennant winners will head into the offseason fairly financially healthy, with much of their core players already under contract or cost-controlled. While Aaron Nola's club option seems a no-brainer, the team will have a tough decision on Jean Segura and a few of the free agents.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Aaron Nola (SP, 30)

Nola carries a $16M club option with a $4.25M buyout for 2023. The 6+ WAR, 235 strikeout, .961 WHIP stud isn’t going anywhere - but ripping up the current deal for a new one probably makes sense here. Philly secured a ton of value on his previous $11.25M AAV contract. This time around he projects to a 5 year, $132M extension.

Rhys Hoskins (1B, 30)

Hoskins will enter the final year of arbitration in 2023, projected to earn around $13M for his efforts. Despite some inconsistencies in his first 5 seasons (especially defensively), there’s a $20M+ valuation on Hoskins as he approaches the open market.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Rhys Hoskins (1B, 30)

Yep, he’s an extension & a trade candidate for our books. The Phillies held the 2nd most errors at 1B, and the 3rd worst fielding percentage at the position in 2022. It was a nice bounceback year for Hoskins at the plate, but the Phillies aren’t going to be short on power for the next few seasons. Upgrading this position (and selling Hoskins while he’s a commodity) should be one of the offseason priorities.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Yairo Munoz (SS, 27, $1M)

No big financial commitment here entering year 1 of arbitration, but the Phillies will be looking to save everywhere this winter.

Manager Don Mattingly walked away from the Marlins this fall, which could signal another round of major roster changes forthcoming in Miami. This is a pitching-heavy, offense-light roster will look to balance out a bit this winter, but expectations will remain low.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Pablo Lopez (SP, 26)

Lopez has been the focal point of blockbuster trade discussions in Miami for the better part of a year now. That won’t change - unless the Marlins zag with a major extension offer. Teammate Sandy Alcantara locked in what should be a $75M extension through the 2027 season last November, then posted the best numbers of his career. What’s to say the same can’t be the case for Lopez in 2022-23? Lopez is slightly less efficient, and doesn’t provide the strikeout at the same rate that Alcantara can, but a contract of similar size and depth should be in the cards.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Garrett Cooper (1B/OF, 32)

Cooper is entering the final year of arbitration, and has leveled off as a “fine” MLB player. His projected $4.3M salary won’t scare many away, and the Marlins should be looking to offload a little active cash in order to spend on a strong open market.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Brian Anderson (3B, 29, $5M)

Anderson doesn’t really have a handle on a position defensively, and his numbers at the plate have decreased annually since 2019. With a $5M salary projected for 2023, his final year of team control, Miami may have to cut bait here.

The Nats continued to sell off parts in 2022, shipping Juan Soto and Josh Bell to the Padres for a bundle of notable prospects. It's about recharging now in Washington, and with a sale of the team also likely this winter - the changes may not yet be done.

EXTENSION CANDIDATE(S)

Keibert Ruiz (C, 24)

The Nationals probably aren’t thinking too long term with anyone on their roster right now, but of all the young players to be promoted or acquired in the past 18 months, Ruiz has stood out above the bunch. Washington hasn’t been an “early extension” team by any measure, but maybe that page can turn.

TRADE CANDIDATE(S)

Luke Voit (1B, 31, $7.5M)

Voit was brought over in the deal that sent Soto/Bell to the Padres, and didn’t exactly flourish in a dissipated lineup. His $7.5M projected salary for 2023 makes him a non-tender candidate, but with very few other bats to pay in this lineup, the Nats may opt to hang on to him until the July deadline.

NON-TENDER CANDIDATE(S)

Victor Robles (OF, 25)

Robles actually led this Nats team in 2022 WAR when it was all said and done, and his speed makes him a commodity in the “updated rules” next season, but he hasn’t shown he can consistently hit MLB pitching. With 2 more years of arbitration left, and a $3.25M projected salary for 2023, it seems likely that Washignton will be looking to shop or chop Robles this winter.

Erick Fedde (P, 30)

Fedde carries a 5.37 ERA and 1.523 WHIP in 102 appearances, 88 which of starts. While his projected $3.75M salary for arbitration 3 isn’t daunting, it might simply be time to move on here.