Monday, October 17 is a key day on the NBA calendar. Not only must teams get into roster compliance (up to 15 players on standard contracts, two players on Two-Way contracts), but it’s also the final day for two sets of players to sign contracts extensions.
We covered the players from the 2019 NBA Draft class who are eligible to sign their first extensions here. Those players have until 6:00 PM ET on Monday, October 17 to ink an extension. If no deal is reached, those players will be eligible for restricted free agency next summer.
The other group of players facing a deadline on Monday are extension-eligible veterans with two or more years left on their contracts.
Extension-eligible vets on an expiring deal can sign their extensions all the way up to June 30 (the final day of the league year). This is true, even though free agent negotiations now open at 6:00 PM ET on June 30. This caused a somewhat confusing situation where players like Gary Harris (Orlando Magic), Taurean Prince (Minnesota Timberwolves) and Thaddeus Young (Toronto Raptors) all signed extensions while news of free agents agreeing to deals was being reported.
We’ll handle that group of expiring players down the line. None of them are pressed to sign an extension in the next few days. For now, we’re going to go team-by-team through the players facing a deadline of Monday to get a deal done. Otherwise, those players will have to wait until the offseason to sign a new contract. And in some cases, they may push things further down the line until they are free agents.
Atlanta Hawks
Bogdanovic is in a bit of a weird spot. He could extend his ability to…well…extend until June 30. In order to do so, he’d have to decline his player option for 2023-24. Then, he could sign an extension as an expiring player. Bogdanovic could also sign an extension right now. The challenge, he’s coming off at least a semi-serious knee injury. Something like a three-year, $45 million extension would be good for him and the Hawks. That lowers his number a bit in the future, when Atlanta has major tax concerns, but allows Bogdanovic to lock in some long-term money.
Prediction: No extension. Hawks and Bogdanovic let things play out for now. They’ll reconnect next summer on what’s best for both sides.
This one is pretty simple. Murray isn’t signing an extension. Right now, he’s limited to signing for just one year because he was so recently traded. Even if Murray hadn’t been so recently traded he could only lock in for a three-year, $68.9 million extension (120% of his current salary with 8% raises), That’s not nearly enough for an All-Star level point guard.
Prediction: No extension. Murray isn’t signing another undervalue extension. He did that once. He’ll play out his current deal and be a free agent in 2024. That means no extension next summer either.
Boston Celtics
We covered Brown in depth here.
Prediction: No extension. Brown makes more than Dejounte Murray does, but the reasons are the same. As outlined in the piece linked above, Brown could also make All-NBA this season and qualify for a “super max extension” next summer.
Brooklyn Nets
Harris is in an interesting spot. He’s not underpaid like Dejounte Murray or Jaylen Brown. But like Bogdan Bogdanovic, he’s coming off an injury. The Nets roster is also in a bit of flux. They have several players who extension-eligible through the end of the league year or they’ll hit free agency in the summer. Again, something like three-years, $45 million (with the final season guaranteed for $10 million-ish) would make sense for both Harris and the Nets. But Brooklyn may prefer to wait things out.
Prediction: No extension. There’s too much happening with the Nets roster right now for them to lock in long-term money for a role player, albeit a very good one.
This one is also very easy. Simmons has to make it through this season before the Nets will even considering extending him.
Prediction: No extension. For now, the focus just needs to be on Simmons actually playing basketball again. That’s all that matters for this season.
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have to regret giving Hayward the $120 million they already gave him. It hasn’t worked out as hoped, for either party.
Prediction: No extension. Charlotte can’t commit even more money to player who hasn’t shown he can stay healthy.
Chicago Bulls
No applicable players
Cleveland Cavaliers
No applicable players
Dallas Mavericks
No applicable players
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have been proactive about signing their players to extensions when they can. Murray will probably be no different…just not yet. Coming off a torn ACL with three seasons left under contract, there is no rush to get to that next deal for Denver.
Prediction: No extension. If Murray is back to his normal self, he may get extended next summer. It’s just too early right now for the Nuggets to consider adding a couple of years to his deal.
Detroit Pistons
No applicable players
Golden State Warriors
This one might have changed in a major way over the last week. There’s no way to truly know if Green would have extended if he hadn’t punched Jordan Poole, but it seems completely unlikely to happen now. Like Bogdan Bogdanovic, if things smooth out, Green could decline his player option for next summer and then extend. His first-year salary would have to start at the $27.6 million he declined in his player option, if he went this route.
Prediction: No extension. This one seems fairly obvious. Everyone needs to let things settle down before a new deal for Green can be broache.
It’s unlikely Thompson will get extended. He’s only played in 32 games over the last three seasons. Even though he was a huge part of the Warriors winning the 2022 NBA Finals, Thompson still has nearly $84 million left on his deal. That’s enough for now.
Prediction: No extension. If Thompson plays well this year, and stays healthy, he might get extended next summer. By then, the Warriors will also have clarity on Draymond Green, Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins, and an ever-increasing tax bill.
Houston Rockets
Gordon isn’t getting extended. With his 2023-24 likely to end up fully non-guaranteed, it’s more likely Gordon is traded than extended.
Prediction: No extension. The Rockets are fully in the midst of a youth movement. Gordon might be there for few months this year to shepherd along the kids, but he’ll likely be traded by the deadline. At that point, his new team will have to wait until the summer to figure out Gordon’s next deal.
Martin made a trade request from the Rockets crowded frontcourt. That hasn’t happened, but it’s unlikely he or Houston are in a rush to extend either.
Prediction: No extension. Because Martin has a team option for 2022-23, the Rockets (or another team if he’s traded) could decline that team option and then sign him to an extension before June 30. That might happen, but an extension with Houston is likely off the table.
Indiana Pacers
This one is tricky. The Pacers are rebuilding around kids, but Hield is a valuable player. It seems more likely that Indiana will trade Hield than extend him.
Prediction: No extension. Indiana has a surplus of interesting players at the two-guard position. That makes Hield expendable. That means no extension, but trade rumors will drag on until Hield is moved.
LA Clippers
At his age, it’s unlikely the Clippers will want to tack more money on than the $33.5 million they owe him through next season. LA has also stockpiled depth over the past few years at the forward position.
Prediction: No extension. The Clippers at some point need to move towards playing some of their younger guys a bit more. It covers them for the eventuality of players aging out. Morris is a key rotation guy, but probably only for two more years. (He’s also a sneaky trade candidate, but that’s for another time.)
Los Angeles Lakers
No applicable players
Memphis Grizzlies
Tillman is in the same spot as K.J. Martin, minus the trade request. Everything else is basically the same.
Prediction: No extension. The Grizzlies have a frontcourt loaded with players. They also have to figure out a potential extension for Brandon Clarke. Even as aggressive as Memphis has been with retaining their own players, it doesn’t seem like a new deal is coming for Tillman until maybe next summer.
Miami Heat
No applicable players
Milwaukee Bucks
Middleton is a really interesting early extension candidate. He’s already locked in for more money through 2023-24 (if he picks up his player option) than he’d probably get per season on a new deal. While still a very productive player, Middleton is now 31 years old. And he’s had some serious injuries in recent years. But Middleton remains a key member of the Bucks. If he could add three seasons at around $30-35 million per year on average annual value, that would be a win for him and the Bucks.
Prediction: No extension. But this is one to watch. It would make a lot of sense for Milwaukee and Middleton to get something done now. It would also clarify the team’s future books and might make some other roster decisions easier. But both sides may prefer to play this out to free agency and to make sure Middleton is healthy.
Minnesota Timberwolves
No applicable players
New Orleans Pelicans
No applicable players
New York Knicks
No applicable players
Oklahoma City Thunder
No applicable players
Orlando Magic
Markelle Fultz
Fultz signed what looked like a really team-friendly deal for Orlando a couple of years ago. That contract is even very lightly guaranteed for next season. Unfortunately, Fultz hasn’t been able to stay healthy since re-signing. He needs to have a big “prove it” season this year.
Prediction: No extension. The injury history is simply too vast for the Magic to lock into any further money for Fultz. If he gets, and stays, healthy and has a good year, Orlando can consider an extension again next summer.
Philadelphia 76ers
Harris is going to look a lot better as the Sixers third or fourth option on offense this season, than the miscast second option he’s been the last couple of years. But that doesn’t mean Philly is ready to hand him more money.
Prediction: No extension. Harris is owed $76.9 million through 2023-24. The 76ers aren’t going to add on to that when they need to re-sign James Harden next summer, extend Tyrese Maxey and continue to work on building depth.
Melton just got to Philadelphia and he should be a perfect third-guard with James Harden and Tyrese Maxey. If he was willing to extend for $10 million or less per season, something could get done before the deadline.
Prediction: No extension. Melton isn’t likely to extend for what will be less that MLE money right now. Because of that, this one might play out a year. Or even two, as his deal doesn’t expire until 2024.
Phoenix Suns
No applicable players
Portland Trail Blazers
No applicable players
Sacramento Kings
We can put Sabonis in the Jaylen Brown/Dejounte Murray category. He’s underpaid for what he is as an All-Star. Because of the limits of the veteran extension rules, it makes no sense for Sabonis to extend now. He’d get a maximum of three-years, $75.4 million. That’s not enough for an established All-Star.
Prediction: No extension. Because Sabonis was traded to the Kings, he can’t sign a super max deal either, even if he made All-NBA. That’s only available to players with their original team, or acquired while still on their rookie scale contract. It’s not likely he’ll extend next summer either. Like Murray, Sabonis will wait until 2024 free agency to cash in.
San Antonio Spurs
No applicable players
Toronto Raptors
We covered all the options for Siakam in depth here.
Prediction: No extension. Siakam will bet on himself, try for another All-NBA season and then he’d be eligible for a super max deal.
VanVleet is a bit in the Jaylen Brown/Dejounte Murray/Domantas Sabonis camp. He’s limited to extending for three-years, $88.7 million right now. He does have a player option for 2023-24 that he could decline, but the first-year salary would have to start at $22.8 million he’d be declining. That makes it even less likely VanVleet would extend.
Prediction: No extension. VanVleet has done just fine betting on himself to this point. He’ll continue to do so for at least one more year. If he turns in another big season, VanVleet will opt out and cash in as a free agent this summer.
Utah Jazz
Beasley is in that team option boat like K.J. Martin and Xavier Tillman Sr., but on a much larger deal. However, Utah isn’t extending Beasley. He’s not going to be long-term part of the roster Utah is working towards as they rebuild.
Prediction: No extension. Beasley is far more likely to be traded than extended. He’s also far more valuable as a pseudo-expiring contract than he would be already locked into an extension. It’ll be a surprised if Beasley is still in Utah after the trade deadline.
Clarkson is sort of in the same boat as Beasley. Does he really have a long-term future in Utah? The difference is Clarkson has some history with the Jazz and he’s a fan favorite. That could see him get an extension.
Prediction: No extension. It just doesn’t make much sense for the Jazz, who are rebuilding, to extend a bench scorer. That’s a luxury on a rebuilding team, sort of like having a good closer on a bad baseball team. It’s more likely Clarkson is traded than extended.
Washington Wizards
Carey is in the team option boat like K.J. Martin and Xavier Tillman Sr. The difference is Carey hasn’t shown nearly as much promise as either Martin or Tillman have.
Prediction: No extension. Carey is more likely to be waived than he is to be extended. He’s not a part of the future in Washington.
Kuzma signed a very team-friendly extension of three-years, $39 million with the Los Angeles Lakers a couple of years ago. He’d be extremely limited in what he could extend for, which makes it very unlikely.
Prediction: No extension. Kuzma stands to make in excess of $20 million per season as a free agent. He won’t extend. Instead, Kuzma will opt out and be a free agent in the summer of 2023. He’ll get paid by Washington or someone else in July.
Porzingis is in that player option situation like a few others. What would make the most sense for the oft-injured big man is to opt out of next season, and to sign a four-year extension for something around $100 million. Or he could add three years and bring his total money owed up to around $100 million. That’s potentially less in the immediate years than he stands to make by opting in, but it would give him long-term money that he may not get as a free agent.
Prediction: No extension. Porzingis doesn’t lack in confidence. He’s probably thinking far bigger than the proposals above. If he can turn in a healthy and productive season, Porzingis might be one of the better free agents available next summer. That could see him blow way past the $100 million mark in new money.
NEWS
