Russell Wilson’s 5 year, $242.5M extension with the Denver Broncos came with 2 years, $51M left on the contract he was acquired on. The new deal lowered his 2022 cap figure from $24M down to $17M, despite an increase in cash from $24M to $57M.

Structurally, the deal is a dead cap nightmare, as it contains a $50M signing bonus, a $20M 2nd year option bonus and a $22M 3rd year option bonus. These bonuses keep his base salaries & cap figures relatively low over the next 3 seasons, and also build in a 4 year guarantee with almost certainty.


CASHFLOW
Wilson will see $57M in Year 1 (3rd most), $85M through Year 2 (5th most), $124M through Year 3 (4th most), & $161M through Year 4 (2nd most). HIs $50M signing bonus ranks 3rd among active players, behind only Dak Prescott ($66M), and Matthew Stafford ($60M).

$135M of the $296M total value contract lives in the last 3 years of the contract. These years contain no full guarantees, and are considered “option” years for all intents and purposes.



CAPFLOW
As mentioned above, the new contract lowers Wilson’s 2022 cap figure by $7M, down to $17M. The Broncos also see a cap credit of $5M in 2023, as that hit drops from $27M to $22M. The deal includes a $35.4M cap figure in 2024, which should represent around 15% of the league salary cap for that season, a more than tenable number.

In 2025 however, Wilson’s cap hit is set to rise north of $55M. If the Broncos are comfortable with Wilson as their QB through 2026, they’ll most certainly convert some of the $37M base salary for 2025 into a signing bonus, lowering that year’s cap hit, but increasing the dead cap for 2026 (currently at $31.2M). This will all but ensure that Wilson sees out at least 5 of the 7 years of this contract.


GUARANTEE STRUCTURE
Wilson’s contract comes with $124M fully guaranteed at signing, including all salary and bonuses through the 2024 season. On the 5th league day of 2024, his $37M salary for 2025 becomes fully guaranteed, placing this deal as a 4 year, $161M contract for practical purposes out of the gate.

$4M of Wilson’s 2026 salary is guaranteed for injury at the time of signing, but with any form of salary restructure in 2024 and/or 2025, the dead cap should secure his 2026 salary anyway.


TIMING
The Broncos urgency to get a deal done with their new QB prior to him ever taking a snap for them may be a contentious decision at some point of this contract (positively or negatively speaking), Denver had a perfect model to piggyback off of in Matthew Stafford’s trade to the Rams, and eventual extension after a superb, Super Bowl winning, first season in LA.

Was Denver worried that the longer they wait, the more expensive this contract would get? Was getting in and out of the guaranteed portion of the new contract before age 38 important to them? Or were they simply charmed into locking up Wilson because of the immediate impact & charisma he brought to the organization, even before taking the field?

Only time will tell.

The Chicago Bears have attempted only 28 passes through two weeks while every other team in the NFL has at least 28+ completions. They’re easily the most run heavy offense which has translated to a combined two receptions for their top pass catchers Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet. At some point this has to change but it likely won’t be this week with a juicy matchup against the Houston Texans who have been shredded on the ground. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 161 yards and the Broncos combined for another 149. Now David Montgomery should see 20+ touches and could be in line for a big day based on volume alone. Add in a few explosive plays and he could easily eclipse the century mark this weekend.

Wagers of the Week:

STARTING PITCHERS

Jacob deGrom (NYM, 34)

Spotrac Valuation: $43.1M

It’s a foregone conclusion that deGrom will opt-out of the remaining 2 years, $63M on his current contract. The Mets set a new precedent for contracts to superstar pitchers in the twilight of their careers in giving Max Scherzer $43.3M for 3 seasons. With suitors galore - including divisional rivals, the Mets will likely need to match or exceed Scherzer’s compensation to have a chance to keep their longtime ace.

Carlos Rodon (SF, 29)

Spotrac Valuation: $31.6M

Rodon is about to complete back to back seasons with a sub-3 ERA. Toss in over 200 Ks, a 5+ WAR, and just 49 walks in 167 innings, and he’ll be one of the most coveted arms on the open market this winter. All of this assumes of course that he opts out of a $22.5M player option for 2023, but that seems like a foregone conclusion at this point.

» View All 2023 Free Agent Starting Pitchers

RELIEF PITCHERS

Edwin Diaz (NYM, 28)

Spotrac Valuation: $16.1M

Back to back 30+ save seasons, including a ridiculous 17 strikeouts per 9 innings in 2022 have Diaz and his agents seeing plenty of dollar signs these days. The $16M calculated valuation is a baseline, as increased tax thresholds should put Diaz’s price point at or around $20M per year.

Daniel Bard (COL, 37)

Spotrac Valuation: $7M

The Rockies brought back Bard this season despite a 5.21 ERA in 67 games. The veteran reliever didn’t let them down, posting a sub 2 ERA in 50+ appearances while giving up just 3 HRs. It stands to reason they’ll strongly consider bringing him back yet again.

» View All 2023 Free Agent Relief Pitchers

CATCHERS

Willson Contreras (CHC, 30)

Spotrac Valuation: $16M

Still surprised he wasn’t moved at the deadline, the shine has worn off Contreras a bit as he and the Cubs have gone quietly down the stretch. His market should pick back up quickly this winter, with $16M as a floor for his next deal.

» View All 2023 Free Agent Catchers

1ST BASEMEN

Josh Bell (SD, 30)

Spotrac Valuation: $18.4M

Bell has been radio silent since joining the Padres in the big deadline trade, but he’s done enough over the past 3 seasons to warrant plenty of interest on the open market (assuming the Padres let him get there).

Jose Abreu (CWS, 35)

Spotrac Valuation: $9.1M

Still hits for average (.309) and brings overall value (4.0 WAR), but the overall production is down as the age has increased. The White Sox may look to upgrade here, so hopping onto another contender as experienced depth is likely in the Cards (a great destination).

» View All 2023 Free Agent 1st Basemen

2ND BASEMEN

Adam Frazier (SEA, 30)

Spotrac Valuation: $10M

Frazier has been inconsistent over his 7 year career, almost following a hot and cold pattern every other season. In that regard, his dip in production this past season could signal much improvement in 2023. He brings plenty of value defensively, and 20 doubles isn’t nothing, so a smaller multi-year guarantee still makes sense.

Cesar Hernandez (WSH, 32)

Spotrac Valuation: $4.5M

The power numbers have fallen off of a cliff, but Hernandez still has on base and defensive value. He’ll be seeking a platoon role in 2023, so the $4.5M valuation might be on the higher side.

» View All 2023 Free Agent 2nd Basemen

SHORTSTOPS

Trea Turner (LAD, 29)

Spotrac Valuation: $32M

Turner’s having arguably his best season as he approaches the open market. Will the Dodgers move on as they did with Corey Seagar, or is Turner their long-term SS option? Either way, it appears there’s around $250M in his immediate future.

Dansby Swanson (ATL, 28)

Spotrac Valuation: $27.4M

Swanson has now posted back to back seasons of 20+ HRs, 80+ RBIs, and 30+ doubles, and will finish 2022 about 40 points higher in batting average than he did for the 2021 campaign. The Braves may be seeking major pitching contracts this winter, so Swanson could be asked to test the open market. A tax adjusted version of Trevor Story’s 6 year, $140M deal in Boston seems right.

» View All 2023 Free Agent Shortstops

3RD BASEMEN

Brandon Drury (SD, 30)

Spotrac Valuation: $6.5M

Where did this come from? After 21 HRs in his last 6 seasons combined, Drury is nearing 30 as the 2022 regular season winds down. His 83 RBIs are 20 more than he’s ever produced and his .829 OPS is by far a career high. Will he return as the Padres’ everyday first baseman?

» View All 2023 Free Agent 3rd Basemen

Outfielders

Aaron Judge (NYY, 30)

Spotrac Valuation: $32.9M

You’ll be hard-pressed to find a list that doesn’t include Judge at the top of it. The 30 year old posted a career (if not historic) season to finish off his team control term with the Yankees. What’s next? $300M over 8 years equals $37.5M, which also just so happens to be slightly more than Mike Trout’s current $37.1M top AAV among position players

Brandon Nimmo (NYM, 29)

Spotrac Valuation: $14.1M

Nimmo’s health has been the biggest thing holding back a nice extension, but he found his way into 150 games heading toward free agency. He’s a prototypical lead off hitter who plays an excellent center field. Yes, finances for these types of players have been in decline, but Nimmo should find a deal that doubles his current $7M paycheck.

» View All 2023 Free Agent Outfielders

Designated Hitters

J.D. Martinez (BOS, 35)

Spotrac Valuation: $14.8M

Martinez is only a year removed from 28 homers, 99 RBIs and a league leading 42 doubles from the 2021 season. With the exception of doubles (40), this year’s numbers pale in comparison, but there’s zero question Martinez can improve a batting lineup for the next few seasons.

» View All 2023 Free Agent Designated Hitters

October is fast approaching and the clock is getting late on the 2022 regular season. Most divisions have already been decided but there’s still a few spots to watch as we enter this pivotal two week stretch. 

Plenty has been written about the Braves chasing down the Mets in the NL East but that’s mostly a result of a historic run from Atlanta rather than a major collapse by New York. Luckily, the Mets have a soft schedule to finish with series against MIL, OAK, MIA, and WSH. I like them to get back on track starting at home against the Pirates and a wildly inconsistent Mitch Keller.

Cleveland has vastly outperformed their pre season expectations but they’re stumbling to the finish line due to key injuries among  their starters. With a pieced together rotation, they desperately need a win anytime Shane Bieber or Triston McKenzie take the mound and I’m counting on that to happen against a fading Minnesota team.

Wager of the Week:  NYM (-270) + CLE (-144)

Fanduel Sportsbook

NFC Division Winners

The NFC doesn't offer a clearcut #1 overall option as we break ground on the 2022 campaign. This should offer plenty of betting value, even at the divisional levels.

NFC East - Eagles (+130)
The Giants and Commanders are in transition years which leaves this as a two team division between the Eagles and Cowboys. Dallas had an underwhelming offseason and there’s a number of uncertainties on both offense and defense. Philadelphia has the more complete roster but remains only a slight betting favorite which surprises me. The Eagles could explode this year and could run away with this division quickly if things don’t break perfectly for the Cowboys.

NFC North:  Vikings (+240)
It’s uncomfortable betting against Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay but I have legitimate concerns about their offensive ceiling without Davante Adams. Their defense is among the best in the league but I expect they’ll be tested in a lot of low scoring games. Minnesota hired former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell and will transition to a pass heavy approach. Despite the new scheme, Minnesota maintains a ton of continuity on offense and there’s definite top 5 potential here. If the Vikings defense is even remotely better than in 2021, I like them to unseat Green Bay atop the division.

NFC South:  Bucs (-230)
I like the non favorites in this division more than the field but not enough to overtake Tampa Bay. The only way I see this going wrong is if Tom Brady falls off a cliff behind a decimated offensive line. Otherwise, I expect the Panthers and Saints to surprise some people but ultimately fall short.

NFC West:  Rams (+125)
The Rams, 49ers and Cardinals all have a legitimate chance of emerging here and I predict this finishes as the best division in football despite the lowly Seahawks. I lean towards the defending Super Bowl Champs but this could look bad fast if Trey Lance reaches his ceiling. Instead I expect inconsistencies in his first full season as a starter. 

NFC Wildcards:  Packers, Cardinals

The 2022 NFL regular season is here, which means it’s the perfect time to start thinking about which players may not be on their current rosters come 2023. Our way too early look at notable names with contract outs after this season, and the savings to their respective teams should a trade or release happen next spring.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill (TEN, 34)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $36.6M (-$2M)

Potential Savings: A Pre-June 1st trade or release leaves behind $18.8M of dead cap, freeing up $17.8M of cap. A Post June-1st move can free up $27M.

Jared Goff (DET, 28)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $30.65M (-$500k)

Potential Savings: An early March roster bonus ($5M), means Detroit will have to move quickly if they plan to get out from under this contract. With only $10M of dead cap on the books, there’s over $20M to be saved here.

Carson Wentz (WSH, 29)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $26.1M (-$2.1M)

Potential Savings: A $5M roster bonus and $4M of 2023 salary become fully guaranteed on March 17th, so it’ll be an early exit for Wentz if necessary. Doing so will leave behind $0 of dead cap, freeing up all $26.1M.

Derek Carr (LV, 31)

Contract Thru: 2025

2023 Cap: $34.8M (+$15.5M)

Potential Savings: Despite a brand new contract, the Raiders built in a “slight” out after 2022. His 2023 salary & $7.5M of 2024 salary don’t fully guarantee until 2/15/2023, allowing Vegas a chance to outright release him with just $5.625M of dead cap - saving $29.25M. 

Jameis Winston (NO, 28)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $15.6M (+$11.6M)

Potential Savings: $5.8M of Winston’s 2023 salary fully guarantees on 3/17/2023. A release prior to means $11.2M of dead cap, freeing up $4.4M.

Mitchell Trubisky (PIT, 28)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $10.625M (+$7M)

Potential Savings: For now, moving on from Trubisky after this season means $2.625M of dead cap, $8M saved. However, he has the chance to vest early March roster bonuses starting with 60% playing time in 2022, so it’s a situation to be monitored.

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL, 27)

Contract Thru: 2026

2023 Cap: $16.72M (-$1.5M)

Potential Savings: With no additional early guarantees left on this contract, Zeke is operating year-to-year from here out. A Pre-June 1st trade or release after 2022 means $11.86M of dead cap, $4.86M saved, while a Post-June 1st move can save almost $11M next season.

Dalvin Cook (MIN, 27)

Contract Thru: 2025

2023 Cap: $14.1M (+$2.3M)

Potential Savings: While there’s no reason to believe the Vikings are ready to move on here, the contract offers a sizable out after 2022. $2M of his 2023 salary will become fully guaranteed on March 17th, but there’s only $6.2M of dead cap elsewhere on the deal. An early trade frees up nearly $8M of cap. We’re probably a year away from this being a real conversation though.

Christian McCaffrey (CAR, 26)

Contract Thru: 2025

2023 Cap: $19.5M (+$10.8M)

Potential Savings: Back to Back restructures have built up over $18M of dead cap in 2023, but there’s still a Post 6/1 out for Carolina if needed, a move that can free up $12M of cap. This is one to watch.

Derrick Henry (TEN, 28)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $15.75M (+$6M)

Potential Savings: Tennessee recently pulled $2M from 2023 into 2022, putting the remainder of the contract on notice. An extension is extremely possible, but if the Titans go the other direction, there’s $6.75M to be saved Pre-June 1st, $10.5M if after.

Austin Ekeler (LAC, 27)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $7.25M (+$250k)

Potential Savings: Still the clear front-runner in the RB room, if Ekeler is forced off the roster next year, the Chargers can free up $5.75M at any point in time. There are new horses in the barn, but Ekeler at $7.25M still feels like too much value to give up on.

Aaron Jones (GB, 27)

Contract Thru: 2024
2023 Cap: $20.02M (+$14.1M)

Potential Savings: Jones has a $7M roster bonus due March 17th, but even an early March trade or release can free up $10.4M for the Packers. How Green Bay handles the Jones/Dillon future will be fascinating, especially if Aaron Rodgers retires.

Joe Mixon (CIN, 26)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $12.85M (+$1.4M)

Potential Savings: Mixon’s deal contains no more early vesting guarantees, so the Bengals control his destiny from here out. There’s $7.35M to be saved Pre-June 1st, $10.1M if after. Mixon is one of the best backs in the game, but the Bengals have a lot of mouths to feed soon.

Chase Edmonds (MIA, 26)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $6M (+$1.1M)

Potential Savings: Edmonds’ 2023 contains no early bonuses or guarantees. Miami can free up $6M if needed. The Dolphins may be treating the RB position as a revolving door in their new spread offense.

Nyheim Hines (IND, 25)

Contract Thru: 2024
2023 Cap: $6.29M (+$1.1M)

Potential Savings: Hines’ 2023 contains no early bonuses or guarantees. The Colts can free up $3.29M Pre-June 1st, $4.79M thereafter. Jonathan Taylor’s payday is coming.

Gus Edwards (BAL, 27)

Contact Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $5.63M (+$1.1M)

Potential Savings: Edwards’ 2023 contains no early bonuses or guarantees. Baltimore can free up $4.38M as needed.

Wide Receivers

Michael Thomas (NO, 29)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $28.2M (+$15.2M)

Potential Savings: There’s a minimal $250,000 roster bonus due March 19th, 2023, but a Post-June 1st release ($16.45M saved) is the likely outcome here if the Saints are looking to move on. 

Curtis Samuel (WSH, 26)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $13M (+$400k)

Potential Savings: Samuels’ 2023 contains no early bonuses or guarantees. The Commanders can free up $5.8M as a Pre-June 1st move, $10.6M if after.

Adam Thielen (MIN, 32)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $19.9M (+$8.3M)

Potential Savings: Thielen is set up for a big 2022, but his contract offers an out thereafter if needed. His $11.8M 2023 salary fully guarantees 3/17, but a Pre 6/1 move frees up $6.4M, while a Post 6/1 designation clears $13.4M.

Robbie Anderson (CAR, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $21.7M (+$10.8M)

Potential Savings: Anderson holds an early March roster bonus ($3M), but his huge cap number signifies some sort of movement on this contract. A good year likely means an extension, otherwise, there’s $12M to be cleared here.

Tyler Boyd (CIN, 27)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $10.3M (+$200k)

Potential Savings: The Bengals probably want to keep Boyd in the fold, but with new extensions forthcoming for Burow, Chase, & Higgins, he may be a casualty next March. Cincy can free up $8.9M of cap to move on.

Robert Woods (TEN, 30)

Contract Thru: 2025

2023 Cap: $13.75M (+$3.75M)

Potential Savings: Traded for just a 6th round pick, Woods is on the same “1 year and we’ll see” plan as Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee can free up all $13.75M by moving on.

DeVante Parker (NE, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $6.3M (+$300k)

Potential Savings: The Pats gave up a 3rd to bring Parker on board, so it’s likely that they get at least two years out of him, but if things fall apart here, there’s $6.3M to be saved ($0 dead cap).

Corey Davis (NYJ, 27)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $11.1M (-$2.5M)

Potential Savings: Davis’ 2023 contains no early bonuses or guarantees. The Jets can free up $10.5M if needed.

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry (NE, 27)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $15.5M (+$500k)

Potential Savings: Unlike his counterpart Jonnu Smith, Henry has no guarantees in 2023. While an extension is much more likely than a trade or release, there’s $10.5M to be freed up here if the Patriots decide to blow this whole thing up.

Tyler Higbee (LAR, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $8.625M (+$4.4M)

Potential Savings: The Rams are always fighting with the salary cap come March, so while a move away from Higbee would be surprising, there’s $3.4M to be freed up early, and $6.25M if designated Post June 1st.

Logan Thomas (WSH, 31)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $8.75M (+$2.5M)

Potential Savings: Thomas’ deal contains no guarantees or early bonuses in 2023, meaning Washington can free up $5.25M with an early move, or $7M if designated Post June 1st.

Will Dissly (SEA, 26)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $9.25M (+$4.6M)

Potential Savings: With Noah Fant now in the fold, Dissly’s deal is looking more and more like it could be a one and done situation. Seattle can free up $3M by moving on before March 19th ($6.15M if designated Post June 1st).

Nick Boyle (BAL, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $10.315M (+$5.9M)

Potential Savings: Boyle’s cap number jumps up $6M from this year to next. While a restructured deal can certainly fix this, it stands to reason that the Ravens will look to turn this spot over, freeing up $7M of cap.

Gerald Everett (LAC, 28)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $8M (+$4M)

Potential Savings: It could be a big year for Everett in a showtime Chargers’ offense, putting his $4M cap increase in extension potential instead of release likelihood. LA can free up $5.5M by moving on next March.

Cameron Brate (TB, 31)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $4.985M (+$2M)

Potential Savings: The Bucs keep finding value in keeping Brate around at the $4M or so mark. That’s exactly where he’ll be next season as well. Tampa Bay can free up $2M with an early release, or $4M as a Post 6/1 designation.

Durham Smythe (MIA, 27)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $4.25M (+$1.5M)

Potential Savings: If Mike Gesicki leaves for free agency, Smythe’s 2023 financials will represent decent value (for lesser production of course). If the Dolphins need to trim cap, there’s a hefty $3.5M to be found here.

Nick Vannett (NO, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $3.365M (+$1.6M)

Potential Savings: Vannett has slipped to 3rd on the Saints’ TE depth chart, behind youngster Adam Trautman, and Taysom Hill (who’s already fully guaranteed thru 2023). It stands to reason that the annually cap tight Saints will take the $3M+ savings here next March.

Offensive Line

Laremy Tunsil (HOU, 28)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $35.2M (+$17.5M)

Potential Savings: It’s not often 28 year old left tackles are thrown to the curb, and it’s not likely that’s the case here next March, but a major cap increase, a bad team, and a regime that didn’t trade for this player, all signify question marks. Houston can free up $18.5M with a trade or release - but an extension is still much more likely.

Tyron Smith (DAL, 32)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $17.6M (+$100k)

Potential Savings: The injuries may have piled up too much for Dallas to consider moving forward with Smith. A Pre June release can free up $9.5M, while a Post 6/1 designation opens up $13.6M.

Taylor Lewan (TEN, 31)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $14.8M (+$200k)

Potential Savings: Lewan was a bubble player heading into 2022, so it’s a lock to put him back here again, especially with $14.8M to be saved.

David Bakhtiari (GB, 30)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $29M (+$15.6M)

Potential Savings: Injuries have kept him off of the field far too much since re-upping back in 2020. With a $9.5M roster bonus due March 19th, Green Bay will have to decide early on his future. A Pre June 1st release opens up $5.9M, while a Post 6/1 designation means $17.4M saved.

Andrus Peat (NO, 29)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $18.3M (+$10.7M)

Potential Savings: Peat hasn’t lived up to the billing since re-upping back in 2020. While that hasn’t stopped the Saints from restructuring the contract twice, there’s still a decent out after 2022 if needed here. A Post 6/1 designation opens up $11.825M of cap next March.

Graham Glasgow (DEN, 30)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $14M (+$7.8M)

Potential Savings: Glasgow was the 47th ranked Guard last year according to PFF, but everything about the Broncos should look better in 2022. Still, he’s slated for a backup role on the OL right now, so the $11M to be saved makes the most sense.

Defensive Line

Robert Quinn (CHI, 32)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $18.2M (+$1.1M)

Potential Savings: Quinn holds 2 years, $27M non-guaranteed on the deal after 2022, and is a fringe trade candidate, likely release candidate to start the year. A Pre June 1 release can free up $9.7M, $14M if designated Post 6/1.

Carl Lawson (NYJ, 27)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $15.3M ($0)

Potential Savings: Lawson’s first year in NY was derailed by injury. He’ll need a big 2022 to stick going forward as the Jets can free up $15M.

Frank Clark (KC, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $30M (+$16.7M)

Potential Savings: Clark’s restructure to stay in 2022 was always going to be a one year situation. If the Chiefs want to keep him around, they’ll blow this up for a new contract as soon as possible. If the plan is to move on, KC can open up a whopping $21M of cap space.

Arik Armstead (SF, 28)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $23.3M (+$13.8M)

Potential Savings: Armstead posted a great 2021, and will be a key to their defense again for 2022. While it’s unlikely SF opts to move on, a new contract for Nick Bosa might make for difficult decisions. There’s $16.7M of cap to be opened up with a Post 6/1 trade or release here.

Roy Robertson-Harris (JAX, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $10.1M (+$1.1M)

Potential Savings: If the Jags progress like many think they can in 2022, ruffling a lot of feathers on the starting lineup won’t be popular. With that said, there’s $7.8M of cap to be freed up here if needed.

Michael Brockers (DET, 32)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $11.9M (+$2M)

Potential Savings: Despite playing 16 games last year, Brockers was rated as the #103 interior defender according to PFF. The Lions are starting to progress, so upgrades in areas like this will be key to that momentum continuing. Moving on from Brockers frees up $10M next March.

Linebackers

Deion Jones (ATL, 27)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $18.4M (-$1.6M)

Potential Savings: The Falcons shopped Jones heavily this summer, to no avail. With no guarantees built into 2023, he's a lock to fall off of the roster this spring, freeing up $13.1M of cap.

Khalil Mack (LAC, 31)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $27.4M (+$18.65M)

Potential Savings: The Chargers gave up a 2nd round pick to bring Mack in this spring, so ideally they'd love to get two years out of him. With no guarantees remaining on the deal (aside from $5.5M early roster bonuses each year), LA will have plenty of space to restructure as needed, but if things turn sideways, there's $18.4M of cap to clear with a release.

Eric Kendricks (MIN, 30)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $11.4M (-$2.1M)

Potential Savings: Kendricks has been a consistent player for the Minnesota defense and should be considered an extension candidate before a trade/release one. But if the latter becomes the decision, the Vikings can free up $9.5M.

C.J. Mosley (NYJ, 30)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $21.4M (+$16M)

Potential Savings: The guarantees on Mosley's massive deal expire after 2022, putting this contract on immediate notice. A sizable restructure this summer upped the 2023 dead cap to $14.9M, but a Post June 1st release designation can still free up $17M of cap for the Jets.

Zach Cunningham (TEN, 27)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $13.75M (+$9.7M)

Potential Savings: Cunningham was claimed off of waivers in Mid-December, and remains a fixture in the Titans' starting lineup. If Tennessee starts to blow things up a bit, they'll may consider the $9.25M of cap to be freed up via trade/release as a part of that reset.

Secondary

Eddie Jackson (CHI, 29)

Contract Thru: 2024

2023 Cap: $17M (+$2M)

Potential Savings: With no early guarantees or bonuses, the Bears can move on from Jackson next spring or summer, freeing up $7.5M immediately, or $13.1M as a Post 6/1 designation.

William Jackson (WSH, 29)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $15.75M (+$1.95M)

Potential Savings: Jackson has a $2.5M roster bonus due March 17th, so the Commanders will need to decide early on this one. An immediate release means $6.75M saved, while a Post 6/1 designation opens up $12.75M.

Ronald Darby (DEN, 28)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $13M (+$150k)

Potential Savings: Darby might be the weak link in the Broncos secondary right now. That’s less about him, and more about how much firepower Denver has here. The Broncos can open up $10M of much needed cap in moving on.

Darius Slay (PHI, 31)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $26M (+$15.9M)

Potential Savings: Slay’s not going anywhere, but a $16M jump in cap from this to next year says his contract is. He’s a slam dunk restructured extension candidate unless the wheels fall off over the next 4 months.

Adoree' Jackson (NYG, 26)

Contract Thru: 2023

2023 Cap: $19.4M (+$10.2M)

Potential Savings: Jackson’s major jump in cap, and a Giants team still shedding contracts, signifies a breakup could be possible. He’s talented enough to warrant an extension, but the Giants may not be in the right window to do that. An early spring trade can open up $9M of cap space.

The 2022-23 NBA season hasn’t started yet, but already teams are positioning themselves for the 2023 offseason. While the 2022 free agent class was considered to be weak in terms of star power, the 2023 class is setting up to be a good one.

In addition to some All-Star level players looking like they’ll be available, multiple teams are positioned to have cap space this upcoming offseason. Between 10 and 13 teams project to have cap space. On the high end, teams like the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets and Indiana Pacers project to have between $50 and $70 million to spend. Other teams are down in the range of $20 million. In total, Spotrac projects there to be well over $450 million to spend in free agency.

With that much spending power potentially available, here’s who teams may be spending that cap space on. This list is current before any veteran extensions are signed. Extensions have become more and more popular in recent years, which has taken a lot of talent off the free agent board before free agency even opens. In other words: don’t be surprised if a handful of the names on this list never make it to 2023 free agency.

With all that in mind, here are the Top 50 potential 2023 free agents:

1. James Harden – Philadelphia 76ers – unrestricted free agent – player option
2. Kyrie Irving – Brooklyn Nets – unrestricted free agent
3. Draymond Green – Golden State Warriors – unrestricted free agent – player option
4. Khris Middleton – Milwaukee Bucks – unrestricted free agent – player option
5. Fred VanVleet – Toronto Raptors – unrestricted free agent – player option
6. Andrew Wiggins – Golden State Warriors – unrestricted free agent
7. Tyler Herro – Miami Heat – restricted free agent
8. Kristaps Porzingis – Washington Wizards – unrestricted free agent – player option
9. Jordan Poole – Golden State Warriors – restricted free agent
10. Myles Turner – Indiana Pacers – unrestricted free agent
11. Nikola Vucevic – Chicago Bulls – unrestricted free agent
12. Bogdan Bogdanovic – Atlanta Hawks – unrestricted free agent – player option
13. Kevin Porter Jr. – Houston Rockets – restricted free agent
14. D’Angelo Russell – Minnesota Timberwolves – unrestricted free agent
15. Bojan Bogdanovic – Utah Jazz – unrestricted free agent
16. Harrison Barnes – Sacramento Kings – unrestricted free agent
17. Jerami Grant – Portland Trail Blazers – unrestricted free agent
18. Al Horford – Boston Celtics – unrestricted free agent
19. Christian Wood – Dallas Mavericks – unrestricted free agent
20. Kyle Kuzma – Washington Wizards – unrestricted free agent – player option
21. Herb Jones – New Orleans Pelicans – restricted free agent – team option
22. Will Barton – Washington Wizards – unrestricted free agent
23. Jakob Poeltl – San Antonio Spurs – unrestricted free agent
24. Dillon Brooks – Memphis Grizzlies – unrestricted free agent
25. Kevin Love – Cleveland Cavaliers – unrestricted free agent
26. Brook Lopez – Milwaukee Bucks – unrestricted free agent
27. Bruce Brown Jr. – Denver Nuggets – unrestricted free agent – player option
28. De’Andre Hunter – Atlanta Hawks – restricted free agent
29. Josh Hart – Portland Trail Blazers – unrestricted free agent – player option
30. Gary Trent Jr. – Toronto Raptors – unrestricted free agent – player option
31. Reggie Jackson – LA Clippers – unrestricted free agent
32. Patrick Beverley – Los Angeles Lakers – unrestricted free agent
33. P.J. Washington – Charlotte Hornets – restricted free agent
34. Steven Adams – Memphis Grizzlies – unrestricted free agent
35. Cameron Johnson – Phoenix Suns – restricted free agent
36. Seth Curry – Brooklyn Nets – unrestricted free agent
37. Caris LeVert – Cleveland Cavaliers – unrestricted free agent
38. Jae Crowder – Phoenix Suns – unrestricted free agent
39. Malik Beasley – Utah Jazz– unrestricted free agent – team option
40. Nassir Little – Portland Trail Blazers – restricted free agent
41. Mason Plumlee – Charlotte Hornets – unrestricted free agent
42. Max Strus – Miami Heat – unrestricted free agent
43. Matisse Thybulle – Philadelphia 76ers – restricted free agent
44. Russell Westbrook – Los Angeles Lakers – unrestricted free agent
45. Larry Nance Jr. – New Orleans Pelicans – unrestricted free agent
46. Grant Williams – Boston Celtics – restricted free agent
47. Otto Porter Jr. – Toronto Raptors – unrestricted free agent – player option
48. Kelly Oubre Jr. – Charlotte Hornets – unrestricted free agent
49. Brandon Clarke – Memphis Grizzlies – restricted free agent
50. Josh Richardson – San Antonio Spurs – unrestricted free agent

Related:

2023 NBA Free Agent Tracker

Designated Player Contract Rules

To Qualify, at least one must be satisfied: 

• All-NBA First, Second or Third team (most recent season or two of the three most recent seasons)
• Defensive Player of the Year (most recent season or two of the three most recent seasons)
• NBA Most Valuable Player (any of the three most recent seasons)

Designated Rookie Extension

• Entering 4th season of Rookie Scale contract
• Maximum of 6 years in length (including remaining year on contract)
• Can sign at 25% of cap maximum (30% of cap maximum if criteria is met)

Designated Veteran Extension

• 7 or 8 years of experience when the extension is signed
• Maximum of 6 years in length (including remaining years on current contract)
• Can sign at 35% of cap maximum
• Must sign with same team originally signed first contract with (unless traded within the first four years of that contract)

Designed Veteran Contract

• 8 or 9 years of experience when contract is signed 
• Maximum of 5 years in length
• Can sign at 35% of cap maximum
• Must sign with same team originally signed first contract with (unless traded within the first four years of that contract)

Free Agent Contract (After Rookie Scale contract)

• Completed Rookie Scale Contract, 2nd-Round pick/Undrafted player with 4 years of experience
• Maximum of 5 years in length
• Can sign at 25% of cap maximum (30% of cap maximum if criteria is met)

Designated Player Team Rules

• Teams may only have two (2) Designated Rookies on the roster at one time, one of which can be traded for. 
• Teams may only have two (2) Designated Veterans on the roster at one time.

Designated Players By Team

Atlanta Hawks

Trae Young, PG

Type: Designated Rookie Extension (30% Supermax)

Contract: 5 year, $215,159,700

Current Salary (Year 1): $37,096,500

Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum, PF

Type: Designated Rookie Extension

Contract: 5 year, $163,000,300

Current Salary (Year 2): $30,351,780

Brooklyn Nets

Ben Simmons, PG

Type: Designated Rookie Extension (via trade from PHI)

Contract: 5 year, 177,243,360

Current Salary (Year 3): $35,448,672

Note: Cannot trade for another Designated Rookie while Simmons is on the roster with such a designation.

Charlotte Hornets

None

Chicago Bulls

None

Cleveland Cavaliers

Darius Garland, PG

Type: Designated Rookie Extension

Contract (estimate): 5 year, $192,850,000

2023-24 Salary (estimate): $33,250,000

Donovan Mitchell, SG

Type: Designated Rookie Extension (via trade from UTA)

Contract: 5 year, $163,000,300

Current Salary (Year 2): $30,351,780

Note: Cannot trade for or offer another Designated Rookie while Garland and Mitchell are on the roster with such a designation.

Dallas Mavericks

Luka Doncic, PG

Type: Designated Rookie Extension (30% Supermax)

Contract: 5 year, $215,159,700

Current Salary (Year 1): $37,096,500

Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic, C

Type: Designated Veteran Extension

Contract (estimate): 5 year, $269,990,000

2023-24 Salary (estimate): $46,550,000

Note: Contract goes into effect for the 2023-24 season; salary information is estimated based on $133 million cap

Michael Porter Jr., SF

Type: Designated Rookie Extension

Contract: 5 year, $179,299,750

Current Salary (Year 1): $30,913,750

Jamal Murray, PG

Type: Designated Rookie Extension

Contract: 5 year, $158,253,000

Current Salary (Year 3): $31,650,600

Detroit Pistons

None

Golden State Warriors

Andrew Wiggins, SF

Type: Designated Rookie Extension (via trade with MIN)

Contract: 5 year, $147,710,050

Current Salary (Year 5): $33,616,770

Houston Rockets

None

Indiana Pacers

None

LA Clippers

None

Los Angeles Lakers

Russell Westbrook, PG

Type: Designated Veteran Extension (via trade with OKC → HOU → WAS)

Contract: 5 year, $206,794,070

Current Salary (Year 5): $47,063,478

Memphis Grizzlies

Ja Morant, PG

Type: Designated Rookie Extension

Contract (estimate): 5 year, $192,850,000

2023-24 Salary (estimate): $33,250,000

Note: Contract goes into effect for the 2023-24 season; salary information is estimated based on $133 million cap

Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo, PF

Type: Designated Rookie Extension

Contract: 5 year, $163,000,300

Current Salary (Year 2): $30,351,780

Milwaukee Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF

Type: Designated Veteran Extension

Contract: 5 year, $228,200,420

Current Salary (Year 2): $42,492,492

Minnesota Timberwolves

Karl-Anthony Towns, C

Type: Designated Rookie Extension

Contract: 5 year, $158,253,000

Current Salary (Year 4): $33,833,400

Type: Designated Veteran Extension

Contract (estimate): 4 year, $224,224,000

2024-25 Salary (estimate): $50,050,000

Note: Contract goes into effect for the 2024-25 season; salary information is estimated based on $139.65 million cap

Rudy Gobert, C

Type: Designated Veteran Extension (via trade with UTH)

Contract: 5 year, $205,000,002

Current Salary (Year 2): $38,172,414

New Orleans Pelicans

Zion Williamson, PF

Type: Designated Rookie Extension

Contract (estimate): 5 year, $192,850,000

2023-24 Salary (estimate): $33,250,000

Note: Contract goes into effect for the 2023-24 season; salary information is estimated based on $133 million cap

New York Knicks

None

Oklahoma City Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG

Type: Designated Rookie Extension

Contract: 5 year, $179,299,750

Current Salary (Year 1): $30,913,750

Orlando Magic

None

Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid, C

Type: Designated Rookie Extension

Contract: 5 year, $147,710,050

Current Salary (Year 5): $33,616,770

Type: Designated Veteran Extension

Contract (estimate): 4 year, $208,544,000

2023-24 Salary (estimate): $46,550,000

Note: Contract goes into effect for the 2023-24 season; salary information is estimated based on $133 million cap

Phoenix Suns

Devin Booker, SG

Type: Designated Rookie Extension

Contract: 5 year, $158,253,000

Current Salary (Year 4): $33,833,400

Type: Designated Veteran Extension

Contract (estimate): 4 year, $224,224,000

2024-25 Salary (estimate): $50,050,000

Note: Contract goes into effect for the 2024-25 season; salary information is estimated based on $139.65 million cap

Portland Trail Blazers

Damian Lillard, PG

Type: Designated Veteran Extension

Contract: 4 year, $176,265,152

Current Salary (Year 2): $42,492,492

Sacramento Kings

De'Aaron Fox, PG

Type: Designated Rookie Extension

Contract: 5 year, $163,000,300

Current Salary (Year 2): $30,351,780

San Antonio Spurs

None

Toronto Raptors

None

Utah Jazz

None

Washington Wizards

None

As fantasy drafts finalize approaching the real Week 1, a quick dive into players we'll be watching extra closely this season (fantasy and real), as they may be playing themselves into big pay raises next spring.

Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson (BAL)

Unmatched fantasy ceiling potential, should be motivated to put up huge regardless of the offensive game plan. Lamar Jackson/Josh Allen entered the league as similar prospects but Buffalo has done much more to develop JA as a passer via scheme, supporting cast, offseason adjustments etc. The Ravens offensive personnel and scheme is almost identical to when Jackson debuted in 2018. It’s fair to wonder where he’d be developmentally if in a different situation.

Spotrac True Value Stat Ranks:
2019: QB1
2020: QB3
2021: QB6

With this said - Lamar doesn't need to prove anything else on the field to ensure a big payday. He's holding his foot down to normalize Deshaun Watson's contract, something no other QB has been able to do as of yet. If he doesn't give in, there may very well be a $45M tag in his immediate future.

Baker Mayfield (CAR)

This is simply a bet on the player returning to (2018-2020) levels rather than the version we saw in 2021. Recurring shoulder injuries derailed his season and a deteriorating situation in Cleveland solidified his exit. Now, a fresh start in Carolina should have Mayfield motivated to prove he’s still a starting caliber QB. The division isn't nearly as competitive as some others, and there are paths to success here if you squint hard enough. If he does bounce back, it’s hard to see Carolina letting him leave after the season considering they’ve scrambled at QB since Cam Newton left. There's a world where we're projecting a franchise tag for Mayfield in a few months.

Also: Jalen Hurts (PHI), Ryan Tannehill (TEN), Geno Smith (SEA)

Running Backs

Derrick Henry (TEN)

Tennessee sweetened his 2022 pot a bit ($2M more cash, $5.2M less cap), further increasing his 2023 cap hit to $15.75M. In other words, something is going to give after the upcoming season. If he's still same ole Derrick Henry come Christmas, a restructured extension becomes extremely likely.

Aaron Jones (GB)

Jones' cap hit increases from $5.9M this year to $20M next year. There's also $16M cash built into the 2023 season, including a $7M roster bonus due in early March. With AJ Dillon chomping at the bit for a full-time role, the Packers may already have a trade/release built into Jones' future. But with Davante Adams gone, it stands to reason that the Packers offense can utilize Jones in a variety of ways for all three downs. If he has the year many expect him to, there will be pressure on Green Bay to flex this contract.

Also: Saquon Barkley (NYG), David Montgomery (CHI), Tony Pollard (DAL)

Wide Receivers

Juju Smith-Schuster (KC)

Set up for a potential monster year as the top WR in a high upside Chiefs offense with minimal target competition. Turns only 26 in November, should be in the midst of his prime. Recency bias makes us overlook his breakthrough 111/1426/7 sophomore season and he posted 97 catches, 9 TDs in 2020. Recent down years coincided with Ben Roethlisberger's decline. I’ll attribute Juju's lack of production to a limited offense led by a 40 year old quarterback rather than an actual decline in skills.

He signed a total ‘prove it’ deal (1yr/$3.76m) and I expect him to shatter that ROI. Early favorite to lead our 2023 TVS among veteran WRs. With that said, it's rare for a player to accept a $4M contract, then jump up to $25M in a matter of months. Teams pay what plays accept themselves at. He's probably on a Robbie Anderson/Corey Davis financial path from here out.

DJ Chark (DET)

Another bet on talent, buy low in a new situation with a ‘prove it’ contract (1yr/$10m). Former 2nd rd pick in 2018 (61st overall). Intriguing size/speed profile that never completely translated in underwhelming Jacksonville offense outside of 1,000 season in 2019. Again, I’ll give the player a pass and blame his lack of production on the situation (Bortles, Foles, Minshew, Urban Meyer). One could argue his current QB Jared Goff is only marginally better but offense showed competence in 2021. The Lions were 30th in yards per play allowed in 2021 and defense barely improved. Team should get into plenty of shootouts which sets up nicely for fantasy production. If this leads Chark to breakout performance, could enter 2023 FA as the most coveted WR on the market.

Allen Lazard (GB)

Lazard doesn’t have the typical profile or production of a receiver that gets a big contract. This is simply about opportunity and potential production in a contract year. Davante Adams departure leaves a huge target void that will get filled by an unproven group of receivers. Enter Lazard who played a mostly ancillary role in recent years but filled in as WR1 whenever Adams missed time and has shown clear chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. I expect Rodgers to lean on him early and often which could lead to career highs. Lazard already feels like the worst value 2023 FA WR contract.

Also: Marquise Brown (ARI), Jacobi Meyers (NE), Mecole Hardman (KC), Parris Campbell (IND)

Tight Ends

Dawson Knox (BUF)

Developmental TE who emerged as a high end red zone threat in 2021. Will need strong follow up performance to prove it wasn’t a fluke. TDs will likely regress but obvious chemistry with Josh Allen and plenty of primetime visibility should boost him into both high production and league popularity. Both pay well.

Foster Moreau (LV)

Talented TE stuck behind Darren Waller, who should see a new contract announced once he returns to full health. He should see more opportunities in Josh McDaniels' two TE offensive sets, and could play himself into a bit of an overpay on the open market (Jonnu Smith, Hayden Hurst, etc...)

Also: Dalton Schultz (DAL), Mike Gesicki (MIA), T.J. Hockenson (DET)

AFC Division Winners

East:  Bills (-230)

Buffalo is the second largest division favorite and while it’s hard to argue against their loaded roster there are subtle ways they could disappoint. Injury regression could set in or the offense could struggle under new OC Ken Dorsey. If one or both of those become reality and the Miami offense ascends to top 5 status under new coach Mike McDaniel, this division could finish much closer than anticipated. 

North:  Ravens (+145)

I tend to think the North is a coin flip between Baltimore and Cincinnati but I’m betting on an MVP caliber season from Lamar Jackson and some regression from the Bengals offense.

South:  Colts (-125)

If Matt Ryan is even marginally more consistent than Carson Wentz was in 2021, Indianapolis should sleep walk to a division title. I don’t like betting against Mike Vrabel but Tennessee  swapped AJ Brown for an unproven rookie and Derrick Henry is coming off a pretty significant foot injury. I suspect this quickly turns into a rebuilding year for the Titans.

West:  Chargers (+240)

To be clear, I’m still high on the Chiefs and think their predicted demise is premature. The way they win will look different than years past but the sum of their parts is better than people give them credit for. That being said, I just really like this Chargers squad. Tons of continuity on their already elite offense and the addition of Khalil Mack changes the entire dynamic of their defense. I’m betting this is the year it all comes together for them.

AFC Wildcard:  Chiefs, Dolphins