The running back market as a whole may be continuing to slide backwards, but Christian McCaffrey has proved once again that he sits outside of this grouping. The 49ers locked in their versatile offensive weapon to a 2 year, $38M new money extension today that keeps the nearly 28-year-old under contract through 2027.

Total Value Terms

McCaffrey’s 2 year, $38M combines with 2 years, $24.2M remaining on his previous contract to account for a 4 year, $62.2M total value deal. It’s a massive win for a running back of his age, who also carried multiple years of term remaining on his previous deal, and speaks to the unicorn status that CMC has garnered in 7 NFL seasons.

Average Annual Salary

McCaffrey was already the highest average paid running back in football at just north of $16M per year. This new extension places him at $19M, now a crisp $4M more than any other back in the game.

1. Christian McCaffrey, $19M
2. Alvin Kamara, $15M
3. Jonathan Taylor, $14M

At $62.2M total over the next 4 years, CMC’s $15.55M adjusted total value AAV still keeps him atop this list, as does the 2 year, $32.2M practical guarantee on this deal.

Practical Guarantee Structure

The new contract comes with $24M fully guaranteed at signing, including a $14.29M signing bonus, his minimum $1.21M base salary for 2024, and $8.5M of his 2025 compensation.

However, a triple bonus structure (signing bonus, 2025 option bonus, 2026 option bonus) make this a very likely 2 year, $32.2M contract on its face, with 3 years, $44.7M not out of the question.

Cap Hit Flow

Previously scheduled to account for $14.1M against the 49ers books this year, McCaffrey’s extension now frees up $7.46M of space fo the upcoming season.

McCaffrey’s New Cap Hits
2024: $6.6M
2025: $9.8M
2026: $9.7M
2027: $25.3M
2028: $14.8M (voidable dead cap)

Obviously the next three years at sub-$10M cap hits benefit the organization a great deal. It should be noted that the 2025 & 2026 figures assume that option bonuses have been exercised. There’s a world where San Francisco decides to front load their cap with this contract, and decline one of the bonuses, turning that respective payment into base salary for a single season.

Additionally, the contract contains 3 void years to allow for the 3 bonuses to fully prorate 5 years. If McCaffrey remains on this contract through 2026 and is released thereafter, the 49ers will have $22.7M of dead cap to deal with - but this is very much only one scenario.

Cash Flow

Previously scheduled to earn $12M in 2024, McCaffrey will now see $16M (assuming he’s active for 17 weeks), with another $16.2M on the books for 2025.

McCaffrey's New Cash Payouts
2024: $16M
2025: $16.2M
2026: $12.5M
2027: $17.5M

While this appears to be backloaded, it’s important to remember that McCaffrey was previously set to earn $12M, & $12.2M in 2024 & 2025 respectively as of yesterday. This extension was as much about bringing more money into his next two seasons as it was anything.

Future Thoughts

There’s not much to say in terms of how this may impact the running back market going forward, because it won’t. If anything, this maneuver resembles the cash-front renegotiation that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs agreed to last season, meant to reward a superstar player who was being paid well, but was playing at a level that simply deserved more money.

The triple-bonus structure keeps CMC’s cap hits outrageously tenable, doing little to stand in the way of potential extensions for Brandon Aiyuk or Brock Purdy in the coming weeks and months. But the single most important takeaway from this contract extension is that it keeps one of the most dynamic weapons in NFL history happy and locked in for two more seasons.

Every team in the league would have signed up for this.

The inevitable has finally occurred: The Minnesota Vikings have made Justin Jefferson the highest average paid non-QB in NFL history this spring, signing their WR1 to an historic 4 year, $140M extension through the 2028 season. We’ll dive into all of the details here.

Contract Rankings

This won’t surprise you, but everything about Justin Jefferson’s next contract with Minnesota is a game changer.

• Average Salary: $35M (1st)
• New Money Value: $140M (T1, Davante Adams)
• Total Guarantee: $110M (1st)
• Guarantee at Sign: $88.7M (1st)
• Signing Bonus: $36.9M (1st)
• Year 1 Cash: $38M (1st)
• 2-Year Cash: $69.9M (1st)
• 3-Year Cash: $95.7M (1st)

Related: Current WR Contract Rankings

Total Value Numbers

Justin Jefferson’s 4 year, $140 million contract extension with the Minnesota Vikings represents a lot of “firsts and mosts” across the non-QB landscape. In full, this becomes a 5 year, $159,753,000 contract through the 2028 season, accounting for a total value average salary just shy of $32M per year.

Average Annual Salary

Jefferson’s $35M average salary easily surpasses all Wide Receiver values, but it also represents the largest non-QB AAV in NFL history.

Top Non-QB Average Salaries All-Time
1. Justin Jefferson, $35M
2. Nick Bosa, $34M
3. A.J. Brown, $32M

Top WR Average Salaries All-Time
1. Justin Jefferson, $35M
2. A.J. Brown, $32M
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown, $30.002M

In terms of percentages, Jefferson’s $35M AAV represents 13.7% of the current league salary cap ($255.4M), which actually ranks 4th among active non-quarterback contracts.

1. T.J. Watt, 15.34%
2. Nick Bosa, 15.12%
3. Tyreek Hill, 14.4%
4. Justin Jefferson, 13.7%

Guarantees

The full guarantees at signing within this contract surmise to $88.743M, which includes the near $37M signing bonus, minimum base salaries this and next season, a $30M option bonus for 2025, and nearly $19M of his 2026 compensation.

Furthermore, another $7M of 2026 salary becomes fully guaranteed next March, and an additional $14.25M of 2027 salary fully guarantees in March of 2026. All of this compensation is guaranteed for injury at the time of signing, and because of the year-early vesting nature, is considered practically guaranteed.

This amounts to a practical guarantee of $110M, and a practical contract value of $125.7M over the next 4 seasons.

Signing Bonus

Jefferson’s $36.9M signing bonus is the largest a Wide Receiver has ever received, easily surpassing D.K. Metcalf’s $30M bonus from the Seahawks back in 2022.

Largest Non-QB Signing Bonuses
1. Nick Bosa, $50M
2. Aaron Donald, $40M
3. Justin Jefferson, $36.9M

Cash Flow

Jefferson’s new contract breaks down like this from a cash standpoint:
Year 1: $38.063M
Year 2: $31.93M
Year 3: $25.75M
Year 4: $30.01M
Year 5: $34M

The 1-Year ($38M), 2-Year ($69.9M) & 3-Year ($95.7M) cash flow are by far the most in WR contract history.

2-Year WR Cash Rankings
1. Justin Jefferson, $69.9M
2. Tyreek Hill, $53.2M
3. A.J. Brown, $51M

3-Year WR Cash Rankings
1. Justin Jefferson, $95.7M
2. A.J. Brown, $80M
3. Tyreek Hill, $73M

The Vikings intelligently front-loaded a big portion of this contract to account for the value they’re getting out of a few notable rookie contracts around the starting lineup.

Cap Hit Flow

The double bonus structure (large signing bonus, large 2nd-year option bonus) always leads to early salary cap value, and this contract is no different.

2024: $8,512,600
2025: $15,317,600
2026: $39,137,600
2027: $43,397,600
2028: $47,387,600
2029: $6,000,000 (voidable dead cap)

With a league salary cap certain to be approaching $300M by 2026, the first three years could reasonably be left untouched, and there’s a very realistic possibility that Minnesota gets through all 4 practical seasons of this contract without ever having to process a cap-conversion. However, aggressive roster building and a potential contract extension for QB J.J. McCarthy after the 2026 season could force their hand.

Jefferson’s previous 5th-year option salary for 2024 came with a $19.743M cash & cap hit, so the extension represents a savings of over $11.2M this season. The Vikings now carry around $27.5M of Top 51 cap space into June.

Timing, Age, & a Likely Outcome

Jefferson doesn’t just have the J.J. McCarthy’s rookie contract value on his side - he also had the benefit of signing a rookie contract at the age of 21. This means, his 4 year extension (5 year total contract) will only carry him through age 29 - and that’s assuming that he plays it out in its entirety.

The most likely outcome here (assuming everything goes as planned for the organization), is that McCarthy is talented enough to warrant a contract extension after 2026 (his first year of eligibility), requiring a huge guarantee at sign escrow dump from ownership, then Jefferson extends out of this new contract after 2027, with 1 year, $34M remaining. McCarthy will be entering his age 24 season, while Jefferson will be entering his age 29 campaign.

Who’s Next?

The Dallas Cowboys continual plan to wait out their players in hopes of a team-friendly “Because we’re the Cowboys” contract have bit them once again. CeeDee Lamb’s production over the past two seasons not only matches Jeffersons, but he’s proven to be able to stay healthy over that period of time as well. There’s a very real world where Lamb meets Jefferson’s $35M per year marker, coming in slightly lower in terms of overall and upfront guarantees. Lamb projects toward a 4 year, $136M extension in our system currently.

The same sentiment can be made for Ja’Marr Chase in Cincinnati who, alongside teammate Tee Higgins, is working to negotiate his own blockbuster extension to remain as Joe Burrow’s number one option going forward. Jefferson’s numbers are the new ceiling for Chase, and anything at or close those marks should be considered fair game. Chase projects toward a 3 year, $92M extension in our system currently.

However, if Cincinnati and Dallas decide to wait until the 2025 offseason to try to lock up their WR1s, Jefferson’s contract should then be considered a floor. Another year of league revenue, another year closer to free agency, and a brand new league salary cap figure to work off of should change the negotiation barometer for these two players.

13 NFL players were designated Post June 1st releases this past March, setting up 12 teams to pick up additional cap space this coming weekend. Spotrac details each of the unique scenarios, include financial ramifications for this and next season respectively.

It should also be noted that once the calendar flips to June 2nd, all NFL moves will follow the Post 6/1 rules. This means that dead cap will be split across 2024 & 2025 for all trades, releases, retirements, etc...

Arizona Cardinals

D.J. Humphries (LT)

The long-time blindside blocker in Arizona was released ahead of a potential $16M payout for the 2024 campaign. Instead, the Cardinals will take on dead cap hits of $6.91M in 2024, & $6.91M in 2025. Arizona will free up $15.95M of cap space this weekend. Humphries remains unsigned at this time.

Baltimore Ravens

Odell Beckham, Jr. (WR)

The Ravens built in a dummy year to OBJ’s 1-year contract last season, affording them the opportunity to Post 6/1 his voidable dead cap. In turn, Baltimore will take on $2.767M of dead cap for the upcoming season, & $8.3M in 2025. The Ravens will free up a modest $1.2M of space this weekend. Beckham Jr. has since signed a 1 year $3M contract in Miami.

Buffalo Bills

Tre'Davious White (CB)

White’s 7-year run in Buffalo came to an end this March, forgoing the final 2 seasons of his contract. The Bills will now take on dead cap hits of $6.2M in 2024, and $4.1M in 2025, freeing up $10.2M of cap space this weekend. White has since signed a 1 year, $4.25M contract with the Los Angeles Rams.

Dallas Cowboys

Michael Gallup (WR)

The Cowboys chose to split Gallup’s $13.05M of dead cap across 2024 and 2025. Dallas will take on $4.35M this season, $8.7M next season, freeing up $9.5M for the current league year. Gallup has since signed a 1 year, $1.75M contract with the Raiders.

Denver Broncos

Russell Wilson (QB)

Wilson’s historic release comes with the biggest dead cap figures this league has ever seen. The Broncos will be saddled with a $53M dead cap hit for the upcoming 2024 season, and a $34M dead hit in 2025. Denver will receive a cap credit of up to $1.21M based on his contract with Pittsburgh, but not until after the 2024 season.

Detroit Lions

Cameron Sutton (CB)

Sutton’s $9M salary guarantee was assumedly voided per his legal issues this offseason, leaving Detroit with dead cap hits of $2.18M in 2024, & $6.54M in 2025. The Lions will open up $10.5M of cap space for the summer this weekend. Sutton remains unsigned at this time.

Green Bay Packers

De'Vondre Campbell (ILB)

Green Bay eliminated the final 3 years, $29M of this contract with a Post 6/1 designation this March, opting instead to take on dead cap hits of $3.65M for 2024, and $7.97M in 2025. The Packers will unlock an extra $10.5M of cap space this weekend per the move. Campbell has since signed a 1 year, $5M contract in San Francisco.

Las Vegas Raiders

Jimmy Garoppolo (QB)

Garoppolo’s tenure in Vegas was short-lived, and an out-of-nowhere suspension for PEDs became a late Christmas gift for the Raiders this past Spring, as an $11.25M salary guarantee was voided. Now, Las Vegas will take on dead cap hits of $4.26M for 2024, and $12.8M in 2025, representing a a savings of more than $24M this coming weekend. Garoppolo has since signed a 1 year, $3.1M contract with the LA Rams. 

Miami Dolphins

Xavien Howard (CB)

Injuries and an expensive payroll led to Howard’s eventual release, eliminating the final 3 years, $53.5M of his contract. Miami will now take on dead cap hits of $7.4M for 2024, and $15.6M in 2025, freeing up a much needed $18.5M of space this summer. Howard remains unsigned at this time.

New Orleans Saints

Michael Thomas (WR)

Thomas’ 8-year tenure in New Orleans came to an end this March with the Post 6/1 Designation. New Orleans will now take on dead cap hits of $8.9M for 2024, and $11.1M in 2025, including $2.2M cash per a 2024 roster bonus. The Saints will free up $1.21M of space this weekend. Thomas remains unsigned at this time.

Jameis Winston (QB)

Winston spent 4 seasons in New Orleans before his designation this March, and has since joined Cleveland on a 1 year, $4M contract. The Saints will take on dead cap hits of $3.38M for 2024, & $7.3M in 2025, freeing up $1.21M of space this weekend.

San Francisco 49ers

Arik Armstead (DE)

Like most contenders, the Niners have had to make a difficult release each of the past few offseasons. Armstead was the unfortunate candidate this time around, forgoing the final year of his 5 year, $85M extension. San Francisco stands to take on dead cap hits of $10.5M in 2024, and $14.8M in 2025, freeing up $17.8M of immediate cap space. Armstead has since locked in a 3 year, $43.5M contract in Jacksonville.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Shaquil Barrett (OLB)

Barrett’s outstanding 5-year run in Tampa came to an end this March, forgoing the final two seasons of his contract. The Bucs will take on dead cap hits of $9.26M in 2024, and $17.4M in 2025, freeing up $1.91M of immediate cap space this weekend. Barrett has since signed a 1 year, $7M contract with the Dolphins.

A look at 10 NFL players who are skipping out on organized team activities as they seek a new contract, including projected outcomes for each. It should be noted that OTAs are voluntary, so players won’t be fined for missing these training sessions. Should these holdouts progress toward training camp, fines & signing bonus forfeiture will begin to come into play for some.

Tua Tagovailoa (26, QB, Dolphins)

1 year, $23.171M remaining

While extension negotiations are well underway, the two sides are reportedly still far apart as OTAs kick off in Miami. Tua isn’t completely holding out from the team, but he’s not exactly “all-in” on them either - understandably so. If you believe Kyler Murray is the best foundation for Tua to base his next contract on, consider this: Murray’s $46.1M per year contract back in 2022 represented 22.1% of the league salary cap. In 2024, that means a $56.5M per year contract for Tua.

Justin Jefferson (25, WR, Vikings)

1 year, $19.743M remaining

Mathematically speaking, Justin Jefferson projects toward a 4 year, $130M extension ($32.5M per year). He’s looking to become the NFL’s highest average paid non-QB (Nick Bosa, $34M). It seems a perfectly reasonable ask, all things considered.

CeeDee Lamb (25, WR, Cowboys)

1 year, $17.991M remaining

The 2-year production between Lamb and Justin Jefferson is much closer than you might expect. In fact, the math says Lamb (who’s remained healthier), should be approaching $34M per year on his next deal. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if both of these receivers sign extensions that approach $150M total value, $100M guaranteed.

Tee Higgins (25, WR, Bengals)

1 year, $21.816M remaining

Higgins has yet to sign his franchise tag and likely won’t do so for quite some time. If an extension isn’t agreed to by July 15th, Higgins will be confined to a 1 year contract for the upcoming season (though not necessarily the tag number). This holds true even if he’s traded in the coming weeks. He projects toward a 5 year, $100M contract in our system.

Courtland Sutton (28, WR, Broncos)

2 years, $27.6M remaining

Sutton’s contract request came somewhat out of left field, as the team around him was encountering significant (mostly cost cutting) changes. It’s likely a “pay or trade” request from Sutton and his camp, but can the Broncos find a viable trade partner at this stage? Sutton projects toward a 3 year, $56M extension in our system.

Darius Slayton (27, WR, Giants)

1 year, $6.2M remaining

Slayton has already been paid a $2.4M roster bonus in 2024, leaving $3.8M remaining for the rest of the year. He caught a career high 50 passes for 770 yards last season, and is likely seeking something in the neighborhood of Gabriel Davis’ recent 3 year, $39M contract in Jacksonville. 

Brandon Aiyuk (26, WR, 49ers)

1 year, $14.124M remaining

The Niners have plenty of deals on the books, and another blockbuster for QB Brock Purdy is looming after the upcoming season. In this regard, it’s probably a team-friendly extension, or a franchise tag for Aiyuk in the coming months, especially with newly drafted Ricky Pearsall now in the picture. Aiyuk projects toward a 4 year, $106M contract extension in our system.

Tristan Wirfs (25, OT, Buccaneers)

1 year, $18.244M remaining

With QB Baker Mayfield, WR Mike Evans, & DB Antoine Winfield Jr. all locked in, Wirfs has to be next on the agenda. Penei Sewell’s recent 4 year, $112M extension ($85M guaranteed) certainly raised the bar for top of the market offensive linemen - and that’s exactly what Wirfs is. $29M+ per year, $118M+ total value, $86M+ guaranteed are now the new thresholds to be crossed.

Cameron Heyward (35, DL, Steelers)

1 year, $16M remaining

Heyward is trending toward the “pay me or I’ll retire” phase of his career, and he’s coming off one of his least productive seasons to pair with it. Still, he’s one of the most prolific Steelers in history, and, despite pushing past 35 years of age, still warrants a mini-extension, signing bonus, and guarantee for the upcoming season. His $16M salary values at nearly $20M in the current financial landscape, so Pittsburgh could tack on 2 years, $40M, including $20M owed in 2024, offering a little bit of everything.

Eddy Pineiro (28, K, Panthers)

1 year, $2M remaining

Kicker holdouts aren’t common, but we’ll take them when we get them. The 28 year old has made 58 of 64 field goals & 47 of 52 extra points in his 2 years with the Panthers. Does that make him worthy of being more than the 21st paid kicker in 2024? Probably. Chase McLaughlin’s 3 year, $12.3M reup in Tampa is a likely asking price.

With offseason activities now under way for 2024 NFL teams, a few QB1 competitions across the league officially kick off as well. Spotrac has identified a few notable quarterback conversations to watch in the coming weeks and months.

RELEATED: ACTIVE QUARTERBACK CONTRACTS

Denver Broncos

Contenders: Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham, Zach Wilson

#12 overall pick Bo Nix signed his 4 year, $18.6M fully guaranteed contract this month, but he’ll have work to do this summer to lock in the starting gig out of the gate. He’s the favorite in the clubhouse.

Zach Wilson, acquired from the Jets last month, has 33 career starts in the league, and could very well be tagged as Denver’s QB1 out of they gate while Nix continues to develop. The Broncos are only on the hook for $2.7M (50%) this season - the final year of his rookie contract.

Denver signed Jarrett Stidham to a 2 year, $10M contract in March of 2023 that included $4M in 2023, & $6M for the upcoming season. The Broncos already paid out a $1M roster bonus this spring, and $1M of his 2024 salary is fully guaranteed, but there’s a world where Denver cuts bait here, freeing up $5M of cap & cash. Stidham has 4 career starts, including 2 last season.

Las Vegas Raiders

Contenders: Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell

Gardner Minshew signed a 2 year, $25M contract to open free agency, including $15M fully guaranteed ($12M in 2024, $3M+ in 2025). It’s aggressive backup QB, value starting QB money - putting him squarely in competition to win the job this summer. Minshew is a career 15-22 as a starting QB, including 62% of his passes completed.

Aidan O'Connell started 10 games in his rookie campaign, completing 62% of his passes for just over 200 yards per game. His contract carries a non guaranteed $3M through 2026.

Minnesota Vikings

Contenders: Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy

The Vikings surprised nobody in selecting J.J. McCarthy #10 overall in this past draft. Once signed, the former Michigan QB1 will be locked in at $21.8M fully guaranteed through 2027, with a 5th year option available in 2028.

Minnesota signed Sam Darnold away from San Francisco this March to the tune of 1 year, $10M ($8.75M fully guaranteed). While he’s logged 56 starts across 6 NFL seasons, Darnold only has 7 under his belt in the past two years (including 1 Week 17 start in 2023), and a career completion percentage under 60%.

New England Patriots

Contenders: Drake Maye, Jacoby Brissett

The Patriots stayed pat, selecting Drake Maye #3 overall to be the next man in line to attempt to replace the ghost of Tom Brady. When signed, he’ll lock in $36.6M fully guaranteed through 2027 plus a 5th year option in 2028. Maye started 27 games across 3 seasons in college, completing over 65% of his passes, including 63 TDs against 16 INTs.

New England signed Jacoby Brissett away from Washington this past March to a 1 year, $8M contract ($6.5M fully guaranteed). His last legitimate starting gig came back in 2022 when he filled in for a suspended Deshaun Watson in Cleveland (4-7 record, 64% completion rate). He’s certainly a capable option for the Patriots out of the gate if Maye requires more time.

New York Giants

Contenders: Daniel Jones, Drew Lock

Despite the Giants’ insistence that Daniel Jones will be the Week 1 starter, we’ll play devil's advocate until we get there. Jones is recovering from an ACL tear, is set to earn $36M fully guaranteed in 2024, and holds a $23M injury guarantee on his 2025 salary, should he be unable to pass a physical next March. It’s a risk to play Jones, who was 1-5 with 2 TDs and 6 INTs at the time of the injury last year, but he’s still the favorite to take the first snap.

Drew Lock was signed away from Seattle on a 1 year, $5M fully guaranteed contract. The 27-year-old has 23 career starts (9-14 record), and holds a career completion percentage under 60%. Still, there’s a world where the Giants leverage his experience as a way to mitigate the financial risk that comes with throwing Daniel Jones back out to the wolves.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Contenders: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields

Signed to a veteran minimum $1.2M salary for 2024 (thanks to the $37.8M buyout coming from Denver), Russell Wilson appears to have the early edge to win the Week 1 job. Saying something in March, and seeing something in September are two very different things.

Acquired from Chicago this past March for a 2025 6th round pick, Justin Fields brings a 1 year, $3.2M contract with him to Pittsburgh, set to earn nearly 3x more than Russell Wilson as a member of the Steelers. This is a rare scenario where contract statuses actually cancel each other out. PIttsburgh’s QB1 battle will be won on the training camp field.

Washington Commanders

Contenders: Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota

Washington took Jayden Daniels #2 overall this past draft, putting him in line to become the Commanders’ next franchise quarterback. Once signed, Daniels will lock in $37.7M through 2027, plus a 5th year option for 2028.

Marcus Mariota was signed away from Philly on a 1 year, $6M contract ($5.4M fully guaranteed). Mariota has 74 career starts (34-40 record), including 13 for the Falcons back in a tumultuous 2022 campaign. He holds a career 62.7% completion rate across 90 games played.

Worth a Mention

Atlanta Falcons
It would be reckless to think that Kirk Cousins (who is owed $62.5M this season) could be supplanted by Michael Penix Jr. this season, but that doesn’t mean he can’t make things uncomfortable out of the gate. Trading Cousins after 2024 means a new team acquires a 1 year, $37.5M contract, practically speaking, while the Falcons take on $37.5M of dead cap (saving $2.5M for 2025). Again - very hypothetical.

New Orleans Saints
Nearly $29M of Derek Carr’s 2024 compensation was converted to signing bonus in February, all but securing his spot for the upcoming season. Additionally, $10M of his 2025 pay (an early March roster bonus) became fully guaranteed. $30M more of next year’s salary locks in next March. If the wheels fall off this season, the Saints may consider paying that $10M guarantee as a parting gift, though an outright release comes with over $50M of dead cap next season ($21M in 2025, $29M in 2026 if designated post June 1st). The Saints selected Spencer Rattler in the 5th round this past draft as a possible replacement.

Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks made it clear by mid-February that Smith was going to be on the 2024 roster (his 3 year contract had an out after 2023). Geno is now guaranteed to earn the $22.5M owed to him for the upcoming season, but another clear out exists thereafter ($13.5M dead cap against a $38.5M hit). Sam Howell is on a 2 year, $2M non-guaranteed contract behind Smith.

With the bulk of the 2024 NFL offseason now behind us, the time to start thinking about next March is now. Spotrac has identified a few notable players at each position group currently on track to become unrestricted free agents after the upcoming season.

RELATED: 2025 NFL FREE AGENT TRACKER

QUARTERBACK

Prescott, who has a no-tag clause in his expiring contract with the Cowboys, is trending toward the open market as of now, and the cost to keep him in Dallas now approaches $60M per year. It seems likely that Jordan Love & Tua Tagovailoa will agree to extensions in the coming months, but the long-term QB plan in Pittsburgh is another situation to monitor.

• Dak Prescott (DAL)
• Jordan Love (GB)
• Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
• Russell Wilson (PIT)
• Justin Fields (PIT)

RUNNING BACK

It was a strong free agency for the running back position this past March, but will the trend continue going forward? Conner has quietly put together a nice run in Arizona, but he’ll be nearly 30 by the time he signs his next deal. Nick Chubb’s recovery from injury this upcoming season will be something to monitor, as Cleveland will be motivated to keep him in the fold for their continuing contention window.

• James Conner (ARI)
• Nick Chubb (CLE)
• Javonte Williams (DEN)
• JK Dobbins (LAC)
• Aaron Jones (MIN)
• Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
• Elijah Mitchell (SF)

WIDE RECEIVER

It feels like everytime we go to create a list of wide receivers available (draft prospects, extension candidates, trade candidates, etc…) we wind up with a laundry list of talent. The same goes for the upcoming free agency pool, though it’s safe to assume that a few of these names will be removed in the coming weeks and months via extension or a tag. Jefferson & Lamb should obliterate the non-QB money market soon.

• CeeDee Lamb (DAL)
• Tee Higgins (CIN)
• Amari Cooper (CLE)
• Keenan Allen (CHI)
• Diontae Johnson (CAR)
• Brandin Cooks (DAL)
• Stefon Diggs (HOU)
• Nico Collins (HOU)
• Marquise Brown (KC)
• Justin Jefferson (MIN)
• Darius Slayton (NYG)
• Mike Williams (NYJ)
• Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
• Chris Godwin (TB)
• DeAndre Hopkins (TEN)
• Tyler Boyd (TEN)

TIGHT END

A largely weak list for now could (should) be bolstered this winter by cap casualty candidates. All three of these players have a good chance to secure a multi-year guarantee next March.

• Juwan Johnson (NO)
• Pat Freiermuth (PIT)
• Tyler Conklin (NYG)

OFFENSIVE LINE

Age is certainly a factor with many of the names listed below, but this is a solid group of starting offensive lineman currently set to hit the free market, highlighted by Tristan Wirfs (TB), Taylor Decker (DET), Quinn Meinerz (DEN), Trey Smith (KC), & Creed Humphrey (KC).

TACKLES

• Ronnie Stanley (BAL, LT)
• Jedrick Wills (CLE, LT)
• Garett Bolles (DEN, LT)
• Taylor Decker (DET, LT)
• Cam Robinson (JAX, LT)
• Alaric Jackson (LAR, LT)
• Tyron Smith (NYJ, LT)
• Tristan Wirfs (TB, LT)
• Cornelius Lucas (WSH, LT)
• Patrick Mekari (BAL, RT/G)
• Spencer Brown (BUF, RT
• Trenton Brown (CIN, RT)
• Morgan Moses (NYJ, RT)

GUARDS

• Teven Jenkins (CHI)
• Zack Martin (DAL)
• Quinn Meinerz (DEN)
• Trey Smith (KC)
• James Daniels (PIT)
• Jon Feliciano (SF)
• Samuel Cosmi (WSH)

CENTERS

• Ted Karras (CIN)
• Ryan Kelly (IND)
• Creed Humphrey (KC)
• David Andrews (NE)
• Nate Herbig (PIT)

INTERIOR DEFENDER

It’s been a big year for defensive tackle money, with Chris Jones (KC), Christian Wilkins (LV), & Justin Madubuike (BAL) resetting the top of the market across the board. The current free agent class isn’t likely to require contracts anywhere near the top of the mountain, but they’ll benefit from the positional raise nonetheless.

• B.J. Hill (CIN)
• Kenny Clark (GB)
• Davon Godchaux (NE)
• Cameron Heyward (PIT)
• Maliek Collins (SF)

EDGE DEFENDER

5 edge defenders signed free agent contracts this past March that contained more than $25M fully guaranteed (Danielle Hunter at $48M led the group). There’s a world where 3-4 of next year’s class eclipse this mark easily, though age is a factor across the board here.

• Charles Omenihu (KC, DE)
• Chase Young (NO, DE)
• Josh Sweat (PHI, DE)
• Brandon Graham (PHI, DE)
• Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (CLE, OLB)
• Khalil Mack (LAC, OLB)
• Shaquil Barrett (MIA, OLB)
• Matt Judon (NE, OLB)
• Haason Reddick (PHI, OLB)

LINEBACKER

As teams continue to passover paying off-ball linebackers in favor of other positions, more and more talented players will be allowed to test the open market. Unfortunately, this is also leading to a bit of a devaluation for these players, as supply is outweighing demand on an annual basis. Patrick Queen’s 3 year, $41M contract in Pittsburgh is all the evidence we need.

• Eric Kendricks (DAL)
• Nick Bolton (KC)
• Robert Spillane (LV)
• Denzel Perryman (LAC)
• Ernest Jones (LAR)
• Jahlani Tavai (NE)
• Willie Gay Jr. (NO)
• Pete Werner (NO)
• Isaiah Simmons (NYG)
• Devin White (PHI)
• Dre Greenlaw (SF)
• De'Vondre Campbell (SF)
• Tyrel Dodson (SEA)
• Lavonte David (TB)
• K.J. Britt (TB)
• Bobby Wagner (WSH)

CORNERBACK

Samuel Jr. and Terrell should sign extensions in the coming weeks, setting up Jonathan Jones & Charvarius Ward as likely top names to watch heading through the 2024 campaign. Jaire Alexander ($21M per year) & Denzel Ward ($71.25M guaranteed) have held the top marks at the position for a minute now.

• Rasul Douglas (BUF)
• A.J. Terrell (ATL)
• Mike Hilton (CIN)
• Carlton Davis (DET)
• Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC)
• Tre'Davious White (LAR)
• Byron Murphy (MIN)
• Jonathan Jones (NE)
• D.J. Reed (NYJ)
• Donte Jackson (PIT)
• Charvarius Ward (SF)
• Deommodore Lenoir (SF)
• Michael Jackson (SEA)

SAFETY

Overall, safety contracts have taken a hit in recent offseason (on a similar trajectory to off-ball linebackers). The stars will continue to see big numbers (as evidenced by Antione Winfield Jr.’s recent payday), but by and large, teams are allowed above average players to test the open market before extending. 

• Vonn Bell (CIN)
• Budda Baker (ARI)
• Jimmie Ward (HOU)
• Julian Blackmon (IND)
• Justin Reid (KC)
• Marcus Epps (LV)
• Trevon Moehrig (LV)
• Camryn Bynum (MIN)
• Tyrann Mathieu (NO)
• Talanoa Hufanga (SF)

SPECIAL TEAMS

Harrison Butker was the 3rd highest rated kicker in 2023 according to PFF, with Prater, McPherson, & Hopkins all cracking the Top 10. This has become a year-to-year what-have-you-done-for-me-lately position however, so most of these names will need strong 2024s to secure any type of multi-year guarantee. The top marks currently sit at $6M per year, $17.5M guaranteed for kickers, $3.6M per year, $7.5M guaranteed for punters.

• Matt Prater (ARI, K)
• Evan McPherson (CIN, K)
• Dustin Hopkins (CLE, K)
• Bryan Anger (DAL, P)
• Harrison Butker (KC, K)
• JK Scott (LAC, P)
• Nick Folk (TEN, K)
• Brandon McManus (WSH, K)

RELATED: 2025 NFL FREE AGENT TRACKER

As NFL teams turn their focus toward the summer months, we'll begin to project how rosters & lineups will shake out for the upcoming 2024 season, starting with a few financials notes for projected starting & backup quarterbacks.

STARTER VALUE
9 teams currently project to carry a QB1 that will earn less in 2024 than his respective QB2

• New England (Brissett, Maye)
• Las Vegas (O’Connell, Minshew)
• Minnesota (Darnold, McCarthy)
• Indianapolis (Richardson, Flacco)
• Pittsburgh (Wilson, Fields)
• Tennessee (Levis, Rudolph)
• Carolina (Young, Dalton)
• San Francisco (Purdy, Dobbs)
• Houston (Stroud, Mills)

ROOKIE CONTRACTS
40% of the projected QB1s & QB2s are on a rookie contract, including 6 in their first year. 11 projected starting QBs are set to play on a rookie contract (though Trevor Lawrence & Tua Tagovailoa could extend this summer).

VET CONTRACTS
17 projected QB1s & QB2s enter 2024 on a brand new contract, including 4 projected starters (Cousins Darnold, Brissett, Wilson, Mayfield). Barring an extension this summer, Jared Goff is set to play out the 6th season of his current contract. Patrick Mahomes is in Year 5, while Josh Allen & Dak Prescott are starting down Year 5 of their extensions.

QB1 High: Mahomes, $450M; QB1 Low: Wilson, $1.21M
QB2 High: Minshew: $25M; QB2 Low: Johnson, $1.3M

ANNUAL AVERAGES
Only 1 projected starting QB carries an average salary below $1M: Brock Purdy (SF). The average of the QB1 averages currently chimes in at $25M, with projected backup QBs set to earn $3.6M on average.

QB1 High: Burrow, $55M; QB1 Low: Purdy, $934k
QB2 High: Minshew, $12.5M; QB2 Low: Bagent, $906k

EXTENSION CANDIDATES
Dak Prescott (DAL): Is entering the 4th and final season of his recent extension, set to earn $34M for 2024.
Jared Goff (DET): Is entering the 6th and final season of his contract, set to earn $27.3M for 2024
Jordan Love (GB): Is entering the 2nd and final season of his bridge extension, set to earn $11M for 2024
Trevor Lawrence (JAX): Is entering the 4th year of his rookie contract. The Jags exercised a $25.6M option for 2025
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): Is entering the 5th and final season of his rookie contract, set to earn $23.1M for 2024

PENDING FREE AGENTS
7 projected starting QBs are slated for free agency next March:

• Dak Prescott (DAL)
• Jared Goff (DET)
• Jordan Love (GB)
• Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)
• Sam Darnold (MIN)
• Jacoby Brissett (NE)
• Russell Wilson (PIT)

(scroll right for additional data)

With the 2024 MLB season now just around 20% completed, we’ll take a quick look back at the Top 10 Free Agent Contracts signed this past winter, highlighting each player’s respective production out of the game, and making note of any contract specifics going forward.

RELATED: 2024 MLB FREE AGENCY

Shohei Ohtani (DH, Dodgers)

10 years, $700M

He leads the league in hits, runs, doubles, homers, batting average, slugging, OPS, OPS+ & total bases - need we say more? Only teammate Mookie Betts has better odds to win NL MVP as of now, but Ohtani is closing in quickly. Contractually there are no opt-outs, a full no trade clause, and a well-known boatload of cash deferrals.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP, Dodgers)

12 years, $325M

After a rocky debut, Yamamoto has sparkled in 7 straight starts, posting a 2.79 ERA, while striking out 47 batters, walking only 8 in 42 innings pitched. Furthermore, his innings per start have begun to creep up, a sign that the 25-year-old may be rounding into form as the Dodgers look to extend their NL West lead through the middle months of the season. Contractually, the Dodgers have him guaranteed through 2029 ($155M total), after which the first of two player opt-outs become available.

Aaron Nola (SP, Phillies)

7 years, $172M

The strikeouts are a little down and the walks are a little up, but for the most part, Nola is performing right at his career average in Year 10. The contract carries 6 more seasons with no opt-outs and a full no trade clause. His Phillies have a 3 game lead on the Braves atop the NL East currently. 

Jung-hoo Lee (OF, Giants)

6 years, $113M

On its surface, it may appear as though Lee’s MLB career has gotten off to a slow start, and production-wise that is true. But the plate disciple, batted ball rates, and rest of season projections all point to Lee not only succeeding as a MLB player, but eventually thriving. The contract is locked through 2027 ($72M), with a player opt-out available thereafter.

Josh Hader (RP, Astros)

5 years, $95M

To say the Astros start (12-23) has been a surprise would be the understatement of the century. Sure, the team behind Hader is faltering, but Hader’s numbers themselves are cause for concern as well. A 42% hard hit percentage is Hader’s highest since 2019, and a .418 slugging percentage against is a career high. He gave up 3 HRs all of 2023, but has already handed out 2 in 14 2024 innings. Contractually, there are no opt-outs, and full no trade clause, and $90M guaranteed remaining.

Eduardo Rodriguez (SP, Diamondbacks)

5 years, $77M

A lat strain has kept E-Rod on the shelf to start his D-Backs career, and a setback has his timetable to return in question. He’s locked in through 2027, with a vesting option in available in 2028 based on innings.

Cody Bellinger (CF, Cubs)

3 years, $80M

A rib injury derailed his season-start, but the numbers since returning seem to be resembling 2023 quite a bit. Good news for the Cubs, who handed Bellinger a $15M+ raise this season, with back to back player options ($27.5M, $25M) to follow.

Sonny Gray (SP, Cardinals)

3 years, $75M

The Cardinals don’t have many things to hang their hat on this season, but Gray is one of them. The 34-year-old carries a sparkling 0.89 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 11.3 Ks/9, and a whopping 466 ERA+ across 5 starts. The contract holds 2 years, $65M guaranteed with a 3rd year option available through 2027. There’s a great chance he’s a serious trade deadline name in a few months.

Blake Snell (SP, Giants)

2 years, $62M

The late free agent signing (March 18th) kept Snell off the active roster early on, and a hip injury has him off the active roster now indefinitely. In between, the 2023 Cy Young winner posted 3 horrific starts (11.57 ERA, 4 BB/9, 18 hits in 11.2 innings). The contract breaks down as a 1 year, $32M deal, with a $30M player option available in 2025.

Matt Chapman (3B, Giants)

3 years, $54M

After a torrid start to 2023 in Toronto, Chapman crashed back down to earth to finish off the season (though he still posted a 5-year-best 4.4 WAR). His 2024 production thus far puts him on pace to finish well below his 162-game averages. Contractually, Chapman can make this a 1 year, $20M contract, a 2 year, $38M contract, or the full 3 year, $54M contract.

RELATED: 2024 MLB FREE AGENCY

With the bulk of free agency & the draft now in the books, many NFL teams are turning their attention back to their current rosters.

Spotrac has identified 10 players (5 Quarterbacks, 5 Wide Receivers) who are trending toward a major contract extension in the coming weeks & months.

QUARTERBACKS

Top Metrics
Average Salary: $55M (Burrow)
Total Guarantee: $219M (Burrow)*
Guarantee at Sign: $146.5M (Burrow)*
3-Year Cash: $156M (Jackson)

*excluding Deshaun Watson

Dak Prescott, 30, Cowboys

Dak is entering the final year of his 4 year contract in Dallas, set to earn $34M for the upcoming season. He holds a no-trade clause, a no-tag clause, and the Cowboys are set to take on a $40.46M dead cap hit next March once his contract voids. Furthermore, all 3 QBs currently on the roster are set to become unrestricted free agents after 2024, putting Dallas’ future at the position in complete question right now. Dak Prescott nearing free agency with maximum leverage? Stop me if you’ve heard this story before. 4 years, $225M.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

Jordan Love, 25, Packers

Now officially eligible for an extension (there was a clause restricting him until May 2nd), the Packers are almost certain to lock in their QB1 before the start of training camp. Love is set to earn $11M for the upcoming season as it currently stands. Adding another 4 years, & $200M to that number seems to make a lot of sense.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

Tua Tagovailoa, 26, Dolphins

Tua is entering his 5th season in Miami, set to earn a fully guaranteed $23.17M option salary for the upcoming season. He put together his best season to date last year by a country mile, placing him on a 4 year, $198M extension valuation. It seems highly unlikely that the Dolphins get a signature on anything less than $50M per year however.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

Jared Goff, 29, Lions

Goff completed over 67% of his passess for the 3rd time in the past 4 seasons, and is set to earn $27.3M through the final year of his contract in Detroit. The Lions appear poised to lock in all of their core pieces this offseason, and have already started that process with WR Amon-Ra St. Brown & OL Penei Sewell. Goff doesn’t have the 2-year production to mathematically value into the high-40s or 50s, but a 4 year, $160M extension has to be considered a foundation point for this discussion.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

Trevor Lawrence, 24, Jaguars

Despite inconsistent production through his first 3 NFL seasons, reports state that the Jaguars have already begun serious extension negotiations with Lawrence and his camp. The #1 overall pick is now fully guaranteed $31.3M across the next two seasons, but projects toward a 6 year, $278M extension in our system currently.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

WIDE RECEIVERS

Top Metrics
Average Salary: $32M (Brown)
Total Guarantee: $84M (Brown)
Guarantee at Sign: $52.5M (Hill)
3-Year Cash: $80M (Brown)

Justin Jefferson, 25, Vikings

The modern-day GOAT now knows who the next QB in Minnesota will be. Is a historic extension for JJ next on the Vikings’ to-do list? It’s perfectly plausible that Jefferson and his camp would rather wait for CeeDee Lamb and/or Ja’Marr Chase to lock in their own deals before finalizing his own numbers, but neither of those scenarios seem close to their respective finish lines. Adding 4 years and $140M to his current $19.7M guaranteed salary for 2024 seems like a logical floor here.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

CeeDee Lamb, 25, Cowboys

With A.J. Brown’s extension now on the books ($32M per year, $84M guaranteed), it stands to reason that Justin Jefferson will push the non-QB contract at or over $35M per year, approaching $100M practically guaranteed. The bad news for Jerry Jones & Co? CeeDee Lamb’s production across the board over the past two years is nearly identical to Jefferson - and he’s remained healthier over that span as well. It’s perfectly plausible that Lamb approaches the $35M per year mark in the coming weeks.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

Ja’Marr Chase, 24, Bengals

While much of the focus in Cincinnati has gone to Tee Higgins and his unsigned franchise tag, Chase (the reason Higgins has a tag and not an extension), has now been extension eligible for 4 months. Will the Bengals take a page out of Philly’s book and rush to extend their core weapon this summer, or will they balance out Chase’s value salary ($4.8M) against Higgins’ tag ($21.8M), then look to re-up Ja’Marr next offseason? Waiting is a dangerous game at this position right now. Chase projects toward a 3 year, $90M extension in our system.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

Brandon Aiyuk, 26, 49ers

The trade rumors are (reportedly) dead for now, so we’ll return our focus to what an extension for Aiyuk in San Francisco could resemble. The former #25 overall pick has shared a lot of targets with the likes of Deebo, George, & Christian over the past 4 seasons, but has still managed to average 77 catches, 1200 yards, and 8 TDs annually since 2022. He’s a classic case of a player who is ready to explode with more opportunity, and is certainly seeking a contract that reflects that. On our books, Aiyuk projects toward a 4 year, $106M extension.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

Tee Higgins, 25, Bengals

Higgins has (unsurprisingly) yet to sign his $21.8M franchise tag, and the Bengals haven’t made his camp a multi-year offer in quite some time, so the likelihood of something getting done by the July 15th deadline seems slim for now. He’s a 5 year, $100M player in our system, and Michael Pittman Jr.’s $23.3M per year deal seems a likely “reach” deal at the moment.
Calculated Value | Current Contract

With the deadline to decide on 5th-Year Options for 2021 1st round draft picks now passed, we'll dig out a few notable notes from the final results. Of Note: Any 5th-year option that has been exercised here immediately becomes fully guaranteed for the 2025 season. Any player who has had their option declined is now scheduled for unrestricted free agency next March (barring an extension or tag).

Related: NFL Draft Contract Tracker

Without question, the biggest takeaway from this class has to be the lack of success surrounding the QB class. Of the 5 quarterbacks selected in the 2021 1st Round, four have been both traded - and subsequently had their 2025 option salary declined. Only Trevor Lawrence, the #1 overall selection, saw his option exercised, guaranteeing him $25.664M in 2025.

Three players avoided the option decision by agreeing to contract extensions in recent weeks:
- OL Penei Sewell, 4 years, $112M
- WR DeVonta Smith, 3 years, $75M (Philly exercised the option as part of the extension)
- WR Rashod Bateman, 2 years, $12.8M (didn't qualify for an option due to lack of accrued service time)

In total, 18 players had their option exercised (including 2 that were exercised immediately prior to an extension), and 12 players had their option declined. 6 of the Top 10 draft picks were exercised (2 extended, 2 declined).

Odd Fun Fact: This is the 2nd straight offseason that the #2 & #3 overall selections had their 5th-year options declined (Zach Wilson/Trey Lane this year, Chase Young/Jeff Okudah last year).

2021 1st Round 5th-Year Option Decisions