The NBA offseason is basically behind us. Despite a few big names languishing on the proverbial trade vine as the change from summer to fall approaches, rosters are largely finished.

Teams are adding camp players and angling for Affiliate Player rights to get them to their G League teams. A few notable free agents remain unsigned, but the vast majority of potential rotation players have been signed.

Now, it’s time to start looking towards the start of the 2022-23 season. With training camps opening in approximately one month, let’s start by looking back at what changes the 2022 offseason brought.

The Central Division was one in some flux last season. The Milwaukee Bucks remained title contenders, while the Chicago Bulls took a big step forward towards playoff relevancy. The Cleveland Cavaliers turned in their best post-LeBron season, while Detroit Pistons continued their rebuilding project around rookie Cade Cunningham. And the Indiana Pacers kicked off a long-awaited reset (rebuild?) and fell out of the playoff picture for the second straight season after a run of nine postseason appearances in the previous 10 years.

Chicago Bulls

Additions: Goran Dragic (free agency), Andre Drummond (free agency), Dalen Terry (2022 NBA Draft), Justin Lewis (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Troy Brown Jr (Lakers via free agency), Matt Thomas (unrestricted free agent), Tristan Thompson (unrestricted free agent), Tyler Cook (unrestricted free agent), Malcolm Hill (restricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $7.29 million of Non-Taxpayer MLE

Analysis:  The Bulls didn’t make many changes, but the ones they did make should be impact moves. After injuries ruined what was shaping up to Chicago’s best season in years, Arturas Karnisovas firmed up depth at some key positions.

Before we get to the additions, the Bulls key move was to re-sign All-Star Zach LaVine. Chicago and LaVine agreed to a max deal worth $215 million over five seasons. Had he stayed healthy, LaVine might have turned in an All-NBA season last year. The Bulls also re-signed Derrick Jones Jr. to a team-friendly deal for some additional forward depth behind DeMar DeRozan and Patrick Williams.

Andre Drummond gives Chicago a viable backup behind Nikola Vucevic. Ideally, with Vucevic turning 32 years old early in the season, he’ll see his minutes drop from the 33.1 per game he played last season. Drummond remains a good rebounder and solid play-finisher, so he should provide quality play when Vucevic sits.

Goran Dragic gives the Bulls incredible depth at the guard position. With Lonzo Ball’s availability after last season’s knee surgery still in question, Chicago didn’t want to be caught short at the lead guard spot. Dragic is 36 years old, but he’s still a solid shooter and scorer. On the nights when the veteran point guard doesn’t have it, Billy Donovan can lean more on Alex Caruso and last year’s second-round find Ayo Dosunmu for more minutes. Coby White also remains in the mix, but his future with the Bulls seems to be very uncertain.

Dalen Terry was a nice upside selection in the middle of the first round. He gives Chicago some size on the wing, which they lack behind their starters. This will probably be mostly a developmental year for Terry. Expect him to log plenty of time with Windy City of the G League.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Additions: Ochai Agbaji (2022 NBA Draft), Robin Lopez (free agency), Raul Neto (free agency), Ricky Rubio (free agency), Isaiah Mobley (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Moses Brown (Clippers via free agency), Ed Davis (unrestricted free agent), Rajon Rondo (unrestricted free agent), Brandon Goodwin (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $4.6 million of Non-Taxpayer MLE, $4.1 million Bi-Annual Exception

Analysis: The Cavaliers took a major step forward in 2022. They landed in the Play-In Tournament before falling to the Brooklyn Nets and Atlanta Hawks. Despite the disappointment of not making the playoffs, the future is brighter than it’s been in a while in Cleveland.

The Cavs were in position to make the playoffs outright for a lot of the season, but some late injuries caused them to slip in the standings. Last season’s injuries at both the center spot and the point guard spot seem to have been the impetus for the team’s offseason signings.

Robin Lopez was brought in to provide depth up front. Lopez probably won’t log a lot of time unless another center is out, but he’s become adept as a “stay ready” big.

Ricky Rubio was brought back after a mid-season trade sent him away to the Indiana Pacers in exchange for Caris LeVert. Rubio was having a terrific season for Cleveland before tearing his ACL in late-December. He probably won’t return until around the holidays, but when he does, Rubio will give the Cavs terrific depth behind Darius Garland.

Until Rubio is back, Raul Neto will likely hold down the backup point guard spot. Neto is also very good at playing off-ball, so he may feature in some lineups with Garland and Rubio at times too.

Ochai Agbaji was a good flyer in the middle of the first round of the draft. Cleveland continues to look for wing depth, so Agbaji could find minutes if he plays well enough. The competition isn’t all that stout, so keep an eye on the rookie playing his way into the rotation.

The only real remaining question for Cleveland is with guard Collin Sexton. Sexton remains unsigned, and the restricted free agent and the Cavs reportedly aren’t close on a deal. Talks have remained ongoing and there’s no animosity, so hopefully this deal gets done sooner rather than later. Sexton’s scoring off the bench would be a boon to a team hoping to make a real playoff run this season.

Detroit Pistons

Additions: Alec Burks (trade), Jalen Duren (2022 NBA Draft trade), Jaden Ivey (2022 NBA Draft), Kevin Knox (free agency), Nerlens Noel (trade), Kemba Walker (trade), Buddy Boeheim (Two-Way)

Subtractions: Carsen Edwards (Fenerbahce via free agency), Luka Garza (unrestricted free agent), Frank Jackson (unrestricted free agent), Jamorko Pickett (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $5.5 million in cap space, $5.4 million Room Exception (after cap space is used)

Analysis: Despite having nearly $50 million in cap space available to them this offseason, the Pistons continued the rebuilding process. It was the right move for Detroit too, as taking shortcuts could have undone the progress Troy Weaver and crew have made over the last couple of years to clean up the cap sheet.

This summer’s work started at the draft. Detroit added Jaden Ivey with their own pick, and then picked up Jalen Duren by agreeing to eat Kemba Walker’s salary from the New York Knicks. Ivey should be an immediate starter alongside Cade Cunningham in the backcourt. Ivey’s scoring game should mesh nicely with Cunningham’s playmaking.

Duren might take a bit longer to join the starting lineup, but when he does, he should stick for a long time. Duren will be the athletic frontcourt weapon on both ends to finish plays for Cunningham and Ivey on offense, and to help cover for them at the rim on the other end.

The Pistons biggest move in free agency was re-signing Marvin Bagley III. While the deal was an overpay, it’s hardly a cap-crusher. Bagley played some of his best ball after landing in Detroit at the trade deadline. He’s still young enough to fit with the team’s youthful core. And Bagley fills a need for frontcourt size.

Kevin Knox was added as a low-cost flyer. Detroit has had some success with rehabbing players over the last couple of seasons. If Knox works out, the Pistons have a nice frontcourt player on a team-friendly deal. If not, Weaver can move on with nothing lost.

Walker is expected to bought out before training camp starts. Detroit has no reason to waive Walker just yet, and will exhaust any trade possibilities where Walker could be salary-matching first. Alec Burks and Nerlens Noel are in more interesting spots. Both could be nice veteran depth for a young team that is looking to take steps forward. Or either could be on the move. As long as they don’t take away too many minutes from the kids, almost anything Detroit gets out of either Burks or Noel is fine.

As for the kids, the Pistons collection features several other promising youngsters beyond the ones we already mentioned. Saddiq Bey has proven he’s a more than solid two-way player. Isaiah Stewart will be a terrific rotation piece as an energy big, at the very least.  And Detroit still hopes that Killian Hayes, Isaiah Livers and Saben Lee might pop and take their place as useful rotation players.

Sure, the Pistons didn’t make a splash in free agency. But just like sometimes the best trade is one you don’t make, the money you don’t spend is often the best too. This group is going to get another season of developing together and next summer might feature the spending spree Detroit fans have been waiting on.

Indiana Pacers

Additions: Bennedict Mathurin (2022 NBA Draft), Andrew Nembhard (2022 NBA Draft), Aaron Nesmith (trade), Daniel Theis (trade)

Subtractions: Malcolm Brogdon (Celtics via trade), Ricky Rubio (Cavaliers via free agency), Lance Stephenson (unrestricted free agent), T.J. Warren (Nets via trade), Duane Washington Jr. (waived), Nate Hinton (unrestricted free agent), Gabe York (unrestricted free agent)

Remaining Acquisition Tools: $29.6 million in cap space, $5.4 million Room Exception (after cap space is used)

Analysis: The Pacers have had a semi-quiet offseason, but not for lack of trying. And with nearly $30 million in leftover cap space, Indiana remains a team to watch leading up to the start of the season.

Indiana’s big addition was Bennedict Mathurin at the draft. Mathurin is a supremely confident wing that can shoot and score. He showed in Summer League that he should fit in perfectly as a long-time running mate for Tyrese Haliburton.

At the start of the offseason, the Pacers swapped Malcolm Brogdon to the Boston Celtics for Aaron Nesmith, Daniel Theis and a first-round pick. (Three other players were also acquired that have since been waived.) Nesmith struggled to find consistent playing time with Boston, but should have a shot at minutes in Indiana. With regular minutes, Nesmith may find the shooting rhythm that caused him to a lottery selection only a few years ago.

The Pacers biggest move was one that didn’t end up landing them the player they were chasing. Indiana gave a four-year, max offer sheet to free agent center Deandre Ayton of the Phoenix Suns. The Suns quickly matched the offer. This was one where the Pacers would have landed a nice centerpiece had Phoenix not matched, but are out nothing since the Suns did match.

Indiana did re-sign big man Jalen Smith to a team-friendly deal for $15 million over three seasons. Smith played his best basketball after joining the team at the trade deadline, and he’s got plenty of upside left. Considering the Pacers were capped at how much they could pay Smith, they did well in this re-signing.

With nearly $30 million in remaining cap space, Indiana joins the San Antonio Spurs as everyone’s favorite “third team in” to make multi-team deals work. The Pacers are also still listening to offers for veterans Myles Turner and Buddy Hield. They might be calling it a “reset” in Indiana, but it’s at least a partial rebuild. However, starting that rebuild with Haliburton and Mathurin, along with a boatload of cap space, is a pretty good spot to be in.

Milwaukee Bucks

Additions: Marjon Beauchamp (2022 NBA Draft), Joe Ingles (free agency), A.J. Green (Two-Way)

Subtractions: None

Remaining Acquisition Tools: Veteran Minimum Contracts

Analysis: The Bucks are running it back and no one should blame them for it. Milwaukee lost Khris Middleton during their first-round playoff series and then bowed out to the Boston Celtics in seven games in the second round. Had Middleton been available, we might be talking about the Bucks as repeat champions.

This offseason was mostly focused on re-signing their own players. Milwaukee gave Bobby Portis slightly more than $48 million over the next four seasons. That’s more than fair value for everything Portis brings the Bucks. With Brook Lopez aging, Portis can start or handle heavy minutes as the team’s third big.

The Bucks also re-signed Jevon Carter, who should give them solid depth behind Jrue Holiday at the point guard spot. George Hill is still around, but by the time the playoffs rolled around, it seemed clear that Carter should be getting the backup lead guard minutes.

Wesley Matthews and Serge Ibaka are both also back. Matthews’ role should lessen, assuming the Bucks are healthy on the wing this year. But Matthews is still a capable 3&D wing, even if he’s starting to struggle some with the quicker players. Ibaka is the team’s fourth or fifth big. That’s a role he can capably play, especially if he’s over the back issues that plagued him last season.

Milwaukee’s main offseason addition was Joe Ingles. We may not see Ingles take the floor until after the holidays, as he’s rehabbing from a torn ACL suffered in late-January. When he does play, don’t be surprised if Ingles takes on more of a role as a 3/4 player, as opposed to the 2/3 role he’s had in his career. Ingles is strong enough to defend backup fours, and his passing should be a boon to the backup units.

Marjon Beauchamp was a bigtime upside selection at the draft. If he can make shots and defend, the Bucks will have found themselves a player. He’s probably a couple of years away from making an impact as a rotation player, so look for Beauchamp to log lots of G League time this season.

Everything is in place for the Bucks to be a title contender next season. They’ll need better injury luck, but when you start you team around Giannis Antetokounmpo, you’re in a better place than the vast majority of the NBA.

Michael Harris' recent extension with the Braves is just the latest example of players locking themselves into fair market extensions early in their careers. If this trend is here to stay, we'll take a look at which players could be next.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Corbin Carroll (OF, 21)

Put Carroll in conversation of “players who could get a huge contract extension before ever taking a MLB at bat”. The 21 year old outfielder has 600 minor league plate appearances, and he’s gotten better at every level. The #2 prospect in baseball could be a September callup for the floundering Diamondbacks, but a full-time promotion seems imminent. Luis Robert’s 6 year, $50M deal in Chicago seems a likely starting point here, though Carroll may want a year in the big league’s to show his talents before signing anything

Don’t let the current MLB standings fool you. Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas, and recently drafted Dru Jones are all legit positional talents, and 6 of Arizona’s Top 10 prospects are pitchers. This is a team prepping for a run.

Atlanta Braves

Vaughn Grissom (SS, 21)

Yea, he hit a towering home run over the green monster to start his MLB career, but we’re looking at the whole picture here. Dansby Swanson is a pending UFA (having one of the best seasons of his career), so there’s a logical hole at the position forthcoming, but Grissom might not be ready defensively to step into that big of a role. With the rest of the infield completely intact (Riley, Albies, Olson), Atlanta probably doesn’t want to take a chance at such an important position - but they might. 

Baltimore Orioles

Adley Rutschman (C, 24)

The Orioles have been one of the better stories in MLB this season, and Rutschman’s promotion is a big reason why. Rutschman is one of the best offensive catching prospects we’ve seen in years, and could be a future captain for this organization. Baltimore appears ready to take the next steps forward in their rebuild process, and are expected to be aggressive this winter. As we move closer towards an automated strike zone, forward thinking teams will place an emphasis on offensive catchers as their defensive contributions will be minimized.

The problem? MLB currently possesses 4 catchers with an average salary north of $10M. The average signed age of those 4 contracts: 30-years-old. Buster Posey’s 8 year $159M extension with the Giants at age 26 was the last young catcher contract - and it was signed 10 years ago. Baltimore probably wants to see a full 2023 season under his belt before any sort of offer is made.

Boston Red Sox

Rafael Devers (3B, 25)

Devers has been in the league for the better part of 5 seasons now, including back to back All Star selections, and two Top 12 MVP candidacies. The 25 year old projects to an 11 year, $368M contract in our system right now. Are the Red Sox willing to bite this bullet before Devers enters his final year of team control?

Cleveland Guardians

Andres Gimenez (SS, 23)

Acquired from the Mets in the Francisco Lindor trade, Gimenez has had a breakout campaign in 2022 (currently ranks as the 7th best value in the league according to our True Value Statistic). He becomes arbitration eligible for the first time next year, so there’s no rush to a new contract, but (despite a strong pipeline of middle infielders in the system), the Guardians have a track record of signing blossoming young talent to less than market extensions - so why wouldn’t they at least try here?

Detroit Tigers

Spencer Torkelson (1B, 22), Riley Greene (CF, 21)

With general manager Al Avila now out, the Tigers “process” appears to be at a standstill, despite big offseason contracts for Javy Baez & Eduardo Rodriguez. While the organization still possesses strong young position players like Greene, their arms (Matt Manning, Casey Mize) leave much to be desired.

Will the next front office look to trade a few of these bats in order to quickly fill these pitching holes? Or will they zag, and lock in these young position players, looking to solidify a core that can hopefully attract offseason talent to Detroit? Easier said than done.

Houston Astros

Kyle Tucker (OF, 25)

On pace for back to back 30 HR/90 RBI campaigns, Tucker isn’t just a complementary piece to Houston’s puzzle, he’s a core element. He’s team-controlled through 2025, which aligns with the expirations of both Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman’s contracts, but Tucker may be the centerpiece for Houston’s next generation. He projects to a 6 year, $180M contract currently.

Kansas City Royals

Bobby Witt Jr. (SS, 22)

Witt is the perfect candidate for an early extension, as he’s filling up the stat sheet (power, speed, etc..) despite battling injuries and a lackluster lineup around him. The Royals aren’t going to attract major free agents, and their payroll going forward is minimal at best. Locking in one of their own makes perfect sense, and an adjusted version of Wander Franco’s 11 year, $182M contract should be the floor.

Seattle Mariners

Julio Rodriguez (OF, 21)

The clock just started on J-Rod, and he’s already an All-Star selection and soon to be rookie of the year nomination deep. Will the Mariners follow the Padres’ lead with Fernando Tatis Jr. (bad timing), and build out a career long contract now before the going gets too good? FTJ was 21 when he signed his 14 year, $340M contract. J-Rod will be 22 this December. With legitimate 5-tool production already here, Seattle should be attempting to lock in this deal now. The per 162 game comparisons for these two players are extremely close, with Tatis Jr. projecting to produce slightly more power on average. An extension in the $340M ballpark makes sense.

The preseason is a great phase to see just how deep a team’s running back room is prior to the season. An already wildly unstable position can get even shakier when an undrafted free agent steps onto the field and proves he can hang. We’ve organized a few dozen notable running backs into financial tiers, providing analysis for each on where things may be headed in the coming months.

• MULTI-YEAR SECURITY
• JURY'S STILL OUT
• YEAR-TO-YEAR
• 2023 EXTENSION?
• EARLY RELEASES
• ONE & DONE

Multi-Year Security

James Conner (27, ARZ)

Contract Remaining: 3 years, $21M
Guarantee: $13.5M thru 2023
The #6 running back in 2021 according to PFF has a chance to be even more impactful with Chase Edmonds now in Miami. He’s a 200 rush attempt, 40 catch candidate every year.

Nick Chubb (26, CLE)

Contract Remaining: 3 years, $27.25M
Guarantee: $7M thru 2023
Chubb remains one of the most productive rushing backs in the game, despite a dropoff in his receiving numbers. His cap hit jumps form $5.2M this year to $14.85M next year - nothing a simple restructure can’t fix. 

Breece Hall (21, NYJ)

Contract Remaining: 4 years, $9M
Guarantee: $6.3M thru 2024
Hall will partner with Michael Carter as one of the better, young one-two punches in the game. The #36 selection out of Iowa State can do it all, and found the end zone weekly at the college level. 

Travis Etienne (23, JAX)

Contract Remaining: 3 years, $5.4M (+ option)
Guarantee: $5.4M thru 2024
Etienne’s return from injury is one of the more anticipated in the league this season. The 23 year old weapon is under team control through 2025, so he and Trevor Lawrence have plenty of time to figure this out.

Najee Harris (24, PIT)

Contract Remaining: 3 years, $5.5M (+ option)
Guarantee: $5.5M thru 2024
For the most part, Harris finished off 2021 as advertised, posting nearly 1,700 yards from scrimmage - including a whopping 74 receptions. With the Steelers’ QB position in flux, look for another heavy dose of Harris for a few more seasons.

Leonard Fournette (27, TB)

Contract Remaining: 3 years, $21M
Guarantee: $12M thru 2023
Fournette had offers elsewhere, but returned to the Bucs on a solid 2nd-tier free agent contract. He’s almost certain to see $14M from it over the next two seasons, while he looks to build on a 1,200 yards from scrimmage, 70 catch campaign last year.

Jury’s Still Out

Alvin Kamara (27, NO)

Contract Remaining: 4 years, $59.3M
Guarantee: $16.5M thru 2023
This one’s complicated, as Kamara is facing league suspension due to a battery charge. Delays to that hearing appear to be pushing things back a year, but if/when the suspension comes in, all future guarantees on this contract will void. For now though, Kamara is secure on 2 years, $22.5M.

Year to Year

Cordarrelle Patterson (31, ATL)

Contract Remaining: 2 years, $10.5M
Guarantee: $5M thru 2022
Patterson compiled 52 catches against 618 yards rushing last year, and with the QB situation in a bit of flux, should be asked to do much of the same in 2022. His non-guaranteed $4.25M for 2023 is very much a toss up though.

JK Dobbins (23, BAL)

Contract Remaining: 2 years, $2.4M
Guarantee: $0
Baltimore will slow play Dobbins back into the lineup this year, but there’s no reason to believe he won’t ramp back up into the versatile weapon he was drafted to be. It’s unlikely any type of early extension is coming though. 

Gus Edwards (27, BAL)

Contract Remaining: 2 years, $7.6M
Guarantee: $0
Edwards won’t be ready for the start of 2022 as he recovers from an ACL injury. He’s on a 1 year, $3.25M contract until further notice.

Christian McCaffrey (26, CAR)

Contract Remaining: 4 years, $44.8M
Guarantee: $8.1M thru 2022
McCaffrey’s deal offers a small out of the upcoming season, putting him on immediate notice. With the QB situation still in flux, it’s plausible that the Panthers keep him through 2023 ($12M), especially if he manages to remain healthy in 2022.

Joe Mixon (26, CIN)

Contract Remaining: 3 years, $29.1M
Guarantee: $0
Mixon was a big part of the Bengals’ surprise Super Bowl run (1,700 yards from scrimmage, 42 catches, 16 TDs). There’s no reason to believe he won’t be as big of a factor in 2022, which could lead to a restructured extension thereafter. He’s a $12.5M running back in our system right now.

Javonte Williams (22, DEN)

Contract Remaining: 3 years, $4.2M
Guarantee: $1M thru 2022
It was originally thought that Williams would be the workhouse in Denver this season, but the Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon late in free agency, bundling up that 1-2 attack yet again. The future still lies with Williams, and he’ll have a chance to bust out in 2023, when he also becomes extension eligible.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (23, KC)

Contract Remaining: 2 years, $3.5M (+option)
Guarantee: $1.6M thru 2022
CEH hasn’t lived up to the billing just yet, and the Chiefs have added more bodies to the RB room to try to shore up the position. It’s probably still his job to lose, but with the guaranteed portion of the contract falling off next March, there’s a lot riding on 2022.

Austin Ekeler (27, LAC)

Contract Remaining: 2 years, $11.25M
Guarantee: $1.25M thru 2022
Ekeler has 282 receptions in 5 seasons, including 70 last year. Toss in nearly 1,600 yards from scrimmage and he remains a vital weapon to Justin Herbert’s bigtime offense. The Chargers have added backs that could eventually replace him, at salaries of $5.5M & $5.75M through 2023, there’s a good chance he sees this contract out.

Isaiah Spiller (21, LAC)

Contract Remaining: 4 years, $4.3M
Guarantee: $736k thru 2022
The 4th round pick this past May should step right in as the complementary piece to Austin Ekeler, and early signs say he’s going to fit well. The bigger his role gets, the more value his $1.1M AAV will provide.

Cam Akers (23, LAR)

Contract Remaining: 2 years, $2.5M
Guarantee: $0
Akers has seen action in just 14 games across his first two seasons after the Rams selected him #52 overall back in 2020. Early projections say the Rams offense could include a lot more emphasis on the run game, so a breakout year - and possible extension discussions - could be in store for Akers. It’s a wait and see situation until then.

Chase Edmonds (26, MIA)

Contract Remaining: 2 years, $12.1M
Guarantee: $6.1M thru 2022
Edmonds will be asked to do a little of everything in Mike McDaniel’s creative offense, and he should respond nicely barring injury. This is a 1 year contract until it’s not though. 

Dalvin Cook (27, MIN)

Contract Remaining: 4 years, $45.9M
Guarantee: $8.4M thru 2022
Can Cook stay healthy enough to recreate the near 2,000 yards from scrimmage performance he posted in 2020? The Vikings have a chance to post huge offensive numbers collectively in 2022, and while Cook’s deal is year-to-year from here out, he’s as good as locked in as any. Keep in mind there’s a civil lawsuit for assault still looming in the next calendar year.

Michael Carter (23, NYJ)

Contract Remaining: 3 years, $2.8M
Guarantee: $0
Carter amassed 1,000 yards from scrimmage - including 36 receptions - in his inaugural season, and should pair up nicely with Breece Hall for an excellent running back committee. He’s year to year through 2024, and extension eligible after 2023.

Elijah Mitchell (24, SF)

Contract Remaining: 3 years, $2.8M
Guarantee: $0
Mitchell missed 6 weeks in 2021, and enters 2022 at less than full health as well. But health is likely SF’s only concern with him at this point, as the youngster posted 1,100 yards from scrimmage in his limited rookie campaign. The Niners are loaded with athletes at this position, so no one player may rise to huge production numbers, but then neither will their contracts as well.

Antonio Gibson (24, WAS)

Contract Remaining: 2 years, $2.3M
Guarantee: $0
Fumbles are officially a problem here, and they appear to be continuing early on in the 2022 offseason. J.D. McKissic was brought back to play robin in this running game, but there’s a very real world where Brian Robinson the #98 selection this past May, could supplant Gibson from his RB1 role sooner rather than later. 

2023 Extension Coming?

Tony Pollard (25, DAL)

Contract Remaining: 1 year, $965k
Guarantee: $0
Pollard is ready to take over the Cowboys’ rushing game, but Ezekiel Elliott’s $12M+ salary is still standing in his way. Will Dallas extend Pollard as the back of their future before moving on from Elliott next March? He’s a $6M running back as a veritable RB2, but that price will likely need to approach $8M as a full-time starter. 

D'Andre Swift (23, DET)

Contract Remaining: 2 years, $3M
Guarantee: $1.3M
Swift caught 62 balls out of the backfield in 2021, proving he’s truly one of the better versatile backs in the game. The Lions made big strides this offseason, and are many experts pick to be the surprise NFC team in 2022. Another strong campaign could mean an extension next March for Swift, who currently projects to a $10.2M contract in our system.

A.J. Dillon (24, GB)

Contract Remaining: 2 years, $2.4M
Guarantee: $0
Dillon is ready to bust out, but he’ll share the workload with Aaron Jones in 2022 once again. With the latter likely falling off of the roster next spring, Dillon could very well gather a new contract before he’s officially given the RB1 keys. He projects to an $8M per year extension currently.It should be noted though that Aaron Jones was let to play out his entire rookie contract, and was extended at the final hour before hitting free agency

Jonathan Taylor (23, IND)

Contract Remaining: 2 years, $3M
Guarantee: $0
Taylor becomes extension eligible after 2022, and if this campaign is anything like last year’s, the Colts may have no choice. The 23-year-old already projects to a 4 year, $65M deal.

James Robinson (24, JAX)

Contract Remaining: 1 year, $895,000
Guarantee: $0
Robinson played well in Etienne’s absence, before an injury of his own slowed his 2021 campaign. His usage alongside Etienne will be something to watch, but with restricted free agency ahead of him next March, it’s safe to assume he’ll stick for a bit. 

Derrick Henry (28, TEN)

Contract Remaining: 2 years, $24.5M
Guarantee: $0
We’re not referencing many 28 year olds on this list - but then again there aren’t many Derrick Henry’s in the world to reference. A foot injury limited his 2021 to just 8 games - 8 games where he averaged 136 yards from scrimmage. If he stays on this course in 2022, a restructured extension is likely in the cards.

Early Releases

Ezekiel Elliott (27, DAL)

Contract Remaining: 5 years, $65.3M
Guarantee: $12.4M thru 2022
Zeke’s been hearing Tony Pollard’s footsteps behind him for the better part of two years now, and that won’t stop in 2022. Elliott is playing on a 1 year, $12.4M, as the remaining 4 years are about as fluffy as NFL contracts get. 

Aaron Jones (27, GB)

Contract Remaining: 3 years, $33.75M
Guarantee: $3.75M thru 2022
Jones’ contract was structured in a pay-as-you-go manner, giving the Packers an out after every season. The almost 28 year old is likely to give way to AJ Dillon after the 2022 season, as his cap hit rises to $20M in 2023.

Nyheim Hines (25, IND)

Contract Remaining: 3 year, $13.9M
Guarantee: $3.3M thru 2022
With the offense now running through Taylor, Hines’ production took a significant hit in 2021. His versatility out of the backfield still makes him valuable, but he’s playing on a 1 year, $3.64M contract for all intents and purposes.

J.D. McKissic (28, WAS)

Contract Remaining: 2 years, $7M
Guarantee: $3.6M thru 2022
McKissic spurred the Bills to return to his role in Washington, where he saw action in just 11 games last season. He’s grabbed 80 receptions in a season not too long ago, and could be seeking an effort like that again in 2022. It’s a 1 year, $4M contract until it’s not.

One & Done?

Devin Singletary (24, BUF)

Contract Remaining: 1 year, $2.54M
Guarantee: $0
Singletary broke out slightly last year, compiling 870 yards on the ground, and 40 catches through the air. He’s a solid option for Allen & the Bills, but he’s one of many at this point. If James Cook shows any kind of promise in his rookie campaign, looking for Singletary to hit the open market next March.

David Montgomery (25, CHI)

Contract Remaining: 1 year, $2.79M
Guarantee: $0
Montgomery and the Bears haven’t offered much publicly about a contract extension, leaving some to believe that the running back isn’t interested in sticking around. He’s doubled his production as a pass catcher in each of the past two seasons, making him a viable option on an expiring contract - at just 25 years old. He’ll soon be the next $12M+ running back (somewhere).

Kareem Hunt (27, CLE)

Contract Remaining: 1 year, $6.25M
Guarantee: $1.5M
Hunt wants a bigger role, and a multi-year guarantee, something the Browns don’t appear willing to offer him. It may be a huge year for the running backs in Cleveland, which should act as a nice showcase for Hunt as he approaches free agency (unless the Browns slap a tag on him next February).

Jamaal Williams (27, DET)

Contract Remaining: 1 year, $4M
Guarantee: $1M
Williams is an underrated RB2, compiling 750 yards from scrimmage last season in Detroit. Does another 2 year, $6M extension keep him in the fold, or will the Lions try to get younger here?

Marlon Mack (26, HOU)

Contract Remaining: 1 year, $2M
Guarantee: $250,000
Mack stands to lead a very heavy RBBC system in Houston. The Texans currently have 7 running backs rostered at a combined cap hit of $8.7M.

Josh Jacobs (24, LV)

Contract Remaining: 1 year, $2.1M
Guarantee: $2.1M
Jacobs’ role has been in question all offseason, and his declined 5th-year option certainly didn’t help. Vegas added Brandon Bolden, and drafted two RBs this past May, so it stands to reason that outside of a huge campaign, it’s a 1 and done situation for Jacobs.

Kenyan Drake (28, LV)

Contract Remaining: 1 year $8.25M
Guarantee: $8M
Drake’s 2021 was limited to 12 games due to injury, but he still managed to catch 30 balls and garner 550 yards from scrimmage in that time. His versatility will be vital to what is now quite a potent Vegas offense, but contractually he’s a 1 and done.

Darrell Henderson (24, LAR)

Contract Remaining: 1 year, $1M
Guarantee: $0
He’s found himself on the IR each of the past two seasons, but also showed a good deal of potential in an expanded role last season. With Cam Akers back in the fold, Henderson’s role in a contract year is certain to be reduced.

Damien Harris (25, NE)

Contract Remaining: 1 year, $1.1M
Guarantee: $0
Harris nearly rushed for 1,000 yards last year, so there’s RB1 capability. But with Rhamondre Stevenson drafted in 2021, & Pierre Strong taken this past May, it feels like the Patriots are poised to just churn and burn the RB position for the foreseeable future.

Saquon Barkley (25, NYG)

Contract Remaining: 1 year, $7.2M
Guarantee: $7.2M
When he’s healthy, he’s a 1,000 yards rushing, 50 receptions type running back. Does that warrant a #2 overall draft selection? No. But it may warrant a non-max ($6M-$7M) extension or free agent contract. It’s impossible to imagine anything happening early here, so this is certainly a discussion for February.

Miles Sanders (25, PHI)

Contract Remaining: 1 year, $1.2M
Guarantee: $0
Sanders has seen just 12 games of action in each of the last two seasons, and didn’t find the endzone at all last year, but he’s a 5+ yard per attempt rusher with the ability to catch a few balls a game as needed. Free Agency is more likely than an extension at this point.

Rashaad Penny (26, SEA)

Contract Remaining: 1 year, $5.75M
Guarantee: $5M
The Seahawks brought Penny back on a 1 year deal both to reward his (finally) breakout campaign in 2021, and fill the void that Chris Carson’s neck injury brought. Penny will get another chance to lead this group in 2022, but will almost certainly make way for Kenneth Walker thereafter.

Only 10 days removed from the biggest trade in recent history and Juan Soto is already headed back to Washington as the Padres travel east for a weekend series against the Nationals. The failed contract negotiations and subsequent fallout is fresh on everyone’s mind and Soto will be eager to have a big weekend.

The Padres offense went cold amidst a 5 game losing following the deadline but things are back on track after scoring 20 runs in their last two wins vs the Giants. Now they get friendly matchups against the back end of the Nationals rotation starting with Cory Abbot on Friday (followed by Anibal Sanchez and Paolo Espino).

Soto is an elite player regardless of the circumstances but he’ll be extra motivated in an otherwise meaningless series and I expect him to produce in a big way.  Here’s a few ways I’m getting in on the action:

As the 2022 NFL regular season approaches, we'll push ahead to players from each position who are positioning themselves for big paydays in the coming months.

Quarterback: Joe Burrow (CIN, $43.1M)

NCAA National Championship -> Torn ACL -> Super Bowl finalist -> #1 rated PFF QB. It’s been a wild few years for Burrow, but all signs point to him being this generation’s elite winner, even if his stats may lag behind the likes of a Herbert or Mahomes. He becomes extension eligible for the first time after 2022, and Kyler Murray’s $104M guaranteed at signing, $160M practically speaking, becomes his floor.Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert (LAC, $43M), Lamar Jackson (BAL, $44M)

Running Back: Tony Pollard (DAL, $6.3M)

Pollard broke out in 2021, leaving many to wonder if Dallas would simply move away from Ezekiel Elliott before the 2022 campaign. Zeke’s contract made that difficult, so it’ll be another strong one-two punch season for the Cowboys’ running game. Pollard will play out an expiring contract, while Elliott’s deal contains no more future guaranteed salary. Honorable Mention: Damien Harris (NE, $5.8M), D’Ernest Johnson (CLE, $2.5M)

Wide Receiver: Justin Jefferson (MIN, $26M)

196 catches, 3,000+ yards, and 17 TDs in 2 seasons, including 91 yards per game, and 10 yards per grab. Not a bad start to an NFL career. Kevin O’Connell’s offense should continue that trend, and Jefferson will become extension eligible after the upcoming season. Honorable Mention: CeeDee Lamb (DAL, $16.5M), Tee Higgins (CIN, $18M)

Tight End: Dawson Knox (BUF, $12.3M)

Knox broke out last year after a sluggish start in Buffalo. He’s extension eligible right now, but appears poised for a franchise tag next February at this stage. Honorable Mention: T.J. Hockenson (DET, $13.5M), Darren Waller (LV, $14M)

Offensive Tackle: Elgton Jenkins (GB, $14M)

Jenkins filled in at left tackle for the injured David Bakhtiari, and could take that role on full-time after the 2022 season. Unfortunately, he’s also recovering from a torn ACL as he enters his expiring contract year. Honorable Mention: Donovan Smith (TB, $19.3M), Andrew Thomas (NYG, $16.3M)

Offensive Guard: Quenton Nelson (IND, $17.2M)

Nelson and the Colts have been in contract discussions for quite some time, but still seem far apart in their negotiations. It’s safe to assume that Nelson has $20M per year on his brain, and it’s hard to argue that figure all things considered. $50M guaranteed should be the first number he considers though. Honorable Mention: Wes Schweitzer (WAS, $13.8M), Chris Lindstrom (ATL, $10.3M)

Offensive Center: Andre James (LV, $12M)

With Derek Carr now re-upped long term, and left tackle Kolton Miller paid handsomely as well, keeping a recently blossoming Andre James in the fold past 2022 makes sense as well. Honorable Mention: Matt Hennessy (ATL, $9.6M), Lloyd Cushenberry (DEN, $7M)

Defensive Tackle: Jeffery Simmons (TEN, $23.6M)

The advanced stats have never treated Simmons well, but he’s always comp’ed closely with DeForest Buckner (who signed a $21M per year deal 2 ½ years ago). With Aaron Donald now at the $30M per year/$95M guaranteed mark, it’s safe to assume that $25M/$75M is within reach here. Honorable Mention: Chris Jones (KC, $21.1M), Christian Wilkins (MIA, $16.7M)

Edge Defender: Nick Bosa (SF, $27.8M)

Bosa has been one of the most consistent edge rushers in the game (when healthy), compiling production that falls in just slightly behind that of T.J. Watt’s ($28M per year, $80M guaranteed). That puts his 4 year, $111M projection about where it belongs. Honorable Mention: Rashan Gary (GB, $20.5M), Marcus Davenport (NO, $23.2M)

Linebacker: Roquan Smith (CHI, $17.6M)

The Bears made Smith a back-loaded, low guarantee offer this summer that was not only rejected, but has prompted a trade request. The off-ball linebacker market now sits at $19.7M per year, $52.5M guaranteed. Most expect Smith to eclipse this (even if the numbers don’t quite project him there yet). Honorable Mention: Jordyn Brooks (SEA, $12.5M), Tremaine Edmunds (BUF, $14.2M)

Cornerback: A.J. Terrell (ATL, $20.8M)

Terrell has quietly put together an impressive resume for a bad Falcons team. He’s a cornerstone piece to keep and build around, but it won’t be cheap. Jaire Alexander’s $21M per year and Denzel Ward’s $71.25M guaranteed are the new bars to eclipse. Honorable Mention: Rock Ya-Sin (LV, $10.7M), Kenny Moore (IND, $10M)

Safety: Derwin James (LAC, $16.5M)

James has been holding out much of the summer as he negotiates his next contract in LA. The safety market has pushed up nicely this summer, thanks to deals for Jamal Adams, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Marcus Williams. James belongs squarely in this mix, with $18.4M per year, $38M guaranteed as the current ceiling. Honorable Mention: Antoine Winfield Jr. (TB, $16.3M), Amani Hooker (TEN, $16.7M)

Special Teams: Matt Gay (K, LAR, $5M)

While consistent (98% PAT, 94% FG), Gay probably doesn’t belong in the Justin Tucker/Harrison Butker conversation just yet. All said though, a $5M per year $12M+ guaranteed extension should be in the cards. Honorable Mention: Greg Joseph (K, MIN, $4.75M), Deonte Harty (KR, $10M)

Jaylen Brown is freshly eligible for a contract extension from the Boston Celtics. Brown is halfway through the four-year, $110 million-plus extension he signed during the 2019 offseason. Now, it’s time for Brown to start thinking about his next deal.

Because Brown is in a bit of a unique spot, we’re going to break down a lot of different options here. What puts Brown in that unique spot is that he’s not coming off a Designated Rookie Extension. When Brown re-signed with Boston in the summer of 2019, he extended for four years (as opposed to five under the Designated Rookie Extension rules) and less than the full max.

First, let’s understand what Brown has left on his current deal:

• 2022-23: $28,741,071
• 2023-24: $30,723,214

By virtue of his own performance and Boston making a run to the 2022 NBA Finals, Brown triggered several bonus clauses that pushed his salary up. Yet, because he didn’t sign a max extension in 2019, Brown’s salary is still below the maximum amount it could be.

It’s important to note, it’s rare for an NBA contract be to renegotiated, unlike in the NFL or MLB. The circumstances to do so are rarely met, and the Celtics haven’t found themselves in that position since they inked Brown to his current deal. Long story short: Brown is playing on a slightly under-value deal, since he’s on a non-max contract.

All of the above puts Brown in an interesting spot. He’s not coming off a max deal, so his options are more varied than usual for a player of his status. Let’s dive in.

The Veteran Extension

Because Jaylen Brown is now two years into his original four-year extension, he’s eligible this summer to sign an extension that is three years years in length. During the 2023 offseason, Brown would be able to add four years via Veteran Extension. Because he’s not currently on a Designated Rookie Extension, Brown isn’t eligible to extend for the maximum amount possible. (At least not yet. We’ll cover that next!).

That means Brown is eligible to do a standard Veteran Extension. And therein lies the rub.

A standard veteran extension allows Brown to extend for a 20% raise off the final year of his current deal with 8% raises in the subsequent seasons. In this case, Brown is set to make $30.7 million in the 2023-24 season. That would make the three-year extension look like this:

• 2024-25: $36,867,857
• 2025-26: $39,817,286
• 2026-27: $42,766,715
• Total: Three years, $119,451,858

It’s highly unlikely Brown would sign a Veteran Extension before the 2022-23 season starts. It would combine the worst facets of being both under his market value, while also being shorter than the max years he could get in free agency or via an extension at a later point.

The four-year veteran extension looks like this:

• 2024-25: $36,867,857
• 2025-26: $39,817,286
• 2026-27: $42,766,715
• 2027-28: $45,716,144
• Total: Four years, $165,168,002

It’s very likely the final year of that deal would be a player option, given Brown’s status as a former All-Star who is expected to make more All-Star teams in the future. That would give Brown the opportunity to get back on the market for a fourth contract before his age-31 season in 2027.

The Designated Veteran Extension

In order to qualify for a Designated Veteran Extension, Jaylen Brown would have to wait to sign this extension until the summer of 2023. This is because players signing a Designated Veteran Extension have to have at least seven years of service at the time the extension is signed. Brown currently has just six years of service. (A year of service isn’t tacked on until the season completes. While this is Brown’s seventh season in the NBA, he doesn’t receive credit for seven years of service until after the 2022-23 season is completed.)

There are also criteria Brown must meet to qualify for the Designated Veteran Extension. To qualify Brown would have to achieve at least one of the following:

• Win MVP in 2022-23
• Win Defensive Player of the Year in 2022-23
• Named to All-NBA in 2022-23

If Brown were to qualify for the Designated Veteran Extension, his salary would jump the 30% of the salary cap maximum tier and would go to the 35% of the salary cap maximum tier. We’re using a conservative projection of $143 million for the 2024-25 season. That extension would look like this:

• 2024-25: $50,050,000
• 2025-26: $54,054,000
• 2026-27: $58,058,000
• 2027-28: $62,062,000
• 2028-29: $66,066,000
• Total: Five years, $290,290,000

That’s 35% of the $143 million projected cap for 2024-25 with 8% raises on subsequent seasons.

As you can see, the Designated Veteran Extension is significantly more lucrative for Brown than the standard Veteran Extension. It does involve Brown betting on himself to meet the criteria, but making All-NBA isn’t really a far-fetched scenario.

The Designated Veteran Contract

If Brown doesn’t meet the criteria for the Designated Veteran Extension in the summer of 2023, he could still qualify to sign for 35% of the cap with a big 2023-24 season. That deal would look exactly like the one above.

In order to qualify for a Designated Veteran Contract (as opposed to an extension), Brown would have to meet one of the same criteria. The difference here would be Brown would have to qualify during the 2023-24 season.

In effect, Brown has two chances to qualify for Designated Veteran status over the next two seasons. He either makes it in 2023 and can sign a Designated Veteran Extension, or he meets the criteria in 2024 and can sign a Designated Veteran Contract.

Much like the regular Veteran Extension, if Boston is willing to commit to Brown on a Designated Veteran Extension, it’s likely the Celtics would give him a player option on the final season. In this case, that would allow Brown to hit the market again before his age-32 season in 2028.

Another note: It’s also possible (as we saw with Bradley Beal re-signing with the Washington Wizards) that a “No Trade Clause” could be added into this deal. That’s allowed because it’s a new contract. That would not be allowed to be added into an extension. As Brown would have eight years of service, and four years of service with Boston, he’d be eligible for a “No Trade Clause”. Whether he would get it or not would be a matter of negotiation.

One last thing, but it’s really, really important: The Designated Veteran Extension or Contract is only available to Brown from the Celtics. If he’s traded to another team, he’s no longer eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension or Contract with that team. If Brown signed a Designated Veteran Extension or Contract, he’d also be ineligible to be traded for one year.

Re-signing with Boston as a free agent in 2024

Let’s say Jaylen Brown doesn’t want to commit to any sort of extension, or vice versa, Brown will be a unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2024.

In that case, Brown is eligible for 30% of the 2024 cap. That would be:

• 2024-25: $42,900,000
• 2025-26: $46,332,000
• 2026-27: $49,764,000
• 2027-28: $53,196,000
• 2027-28: $56,628,000
• Total: Five years, $248,820,000

That’s 30% of the projected $143 million cap with 8% raises. Again, it’s likely a player option would be negotiated into this deal as well.

Much like with the Designated Veteran Contract, Boston and Brown could agree to add a “No Trade Clause” to a standard contract via re-signing. Again, the difference is it being a new contract vs an extension.

Signing with another team as a free agent in 2024

Let’s say Jaylen Brown doesn’t want to commit to any sort of extension with the Boston Celtics, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent, for the first time, in the summer of 2024. In this scenario, let’s say Brown is ready to leave Boston after they considered at some level trading him for Kevin Durant, Brown would be one of the best free agents to be available in years.

If Brown wanted to leave the Celtics, he’d be eligible for the same 30% of the $143 million cap in Year 1 with another team. However, that deal would be limited to four years and only 5% raises. It would look like this:

• 2024-25: $42,900,000
• 2025-26: $45,045,000
• 2026-27: $47,190,000
• 2027-28: $49,335,000
• Total: Four years, $184,470,000

Again, expect that final season to have a player option. There would probably also be the maximum 15% trade bonus included here as well. Free agents rarely leave their incumbent team without getting incentives beyond just salary in the deal with the new club.

Not nearly as lucrative as the Designated Veteran Extension amount with Boston, of course, but it also falls short of what Brown could get from the Celtics simply by re-signing. Even comparing only the first four seasons, Brown would be giving up about $7.7 million by leaving the Celtics. But it’s really that potential fifth year and the extra $64 million that makes the difference.

Extending with another team after being traded

If the Boston Celtics were to trade Jaylen Brown, his new team would likely want him to stick around long-term, ideally by getting him to ink an extension. In this case, nothing changes from the initial Veteran Extension options we laid out as far as the total salary goes. As a refresher, here’s what that Veteran Extension would look like:

• 2024-25: $36,867,857
• 2025-26: $39,817,286
• 2026-27: $42,766,715
• 2027-28: $45,716,144
• Total: Four years, $165,168,002

However, there are some notable differences!

First, Brown would have to wait for six months after being traded to sign a Veteran Extension with a new team. This is because he’d be extending for more than is allowable under the extend and trade rules. In addition, Brown would then be ineligible to be traded for six months after inking such an extension.

Also, and this one is really, really important (again!): Brown would not be eligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension or Contract with his new team. Those deals are reserved for players that were drafted by their team or acquired while still on their Rookie Scale contracts. As Brown would have been traded too late to qualify in this scenario, he’s ineligible to sign a Designated Veteran Extension or Contract with any team but Boston.

Summary

Whether he’s traded or not, it makes little to no sense for Jaylen Brown to sign a Veteran Extension either this season or next. Here’s what Brown would give up in each scenario:

• Veteran Extension vs 35% Designated Veteran Extension or Contract with Boston: $125 million-plus
• Veteran Extension vs 30% max re-signing with Boston (or re-signing): $83.6 million-plus
• Veteran Extension vs 30% max signing with another team: $19.3 million-plus

There is little chance Brown would leave that much money, and flexibility, on the table to ink a standard Veteran Extension in the next year or two. Nor should that be the expectation of him.

Because Brown signed for less than the max in his original deal, and the cap is continuing to rise, he’s highly likely to forgo signing anything this offseason. Next offseason might be a different story.

Assuming Brown remains with the Celtics, both sides could agree to a Designated Veteran Extension in the summer of 2023, if he qualifies that season.  It’s not a reach, as Brown is coming off a season where he averaged 23.6 points and 6.1 rebounds per game in the regular season prior to a very productive run to the 2022 NBA Finals.

If Brown doesn’t qualify for a Designated Veteran Extension in 2023, then he’ll be an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2024. He may qualify for the Designated Veteran Contract by virtue of a big 2023-24 season. If not, he’ll then look to cash in with the Celtics on a standard 30% max deal, or he could give up some money and move to a new team.

This offseason isn’t the time for Boston fans to worry about Jaylen Brown not extending. It simply doesn’t make any financial sense for a player of his ability. But if Brown makes All-NBA (or wins MVP or DPOY) in 2023 and we’re still waiting on an extension a year from now, it’s fair to get a little nervous if you’re a Celtics fan. That would mean Brown is passing on the largest contract he can possibly get.

If Brown is eligible and passes on signing a Designated Veteran Extension in 2023, it probably makes sense for Boston to consider trading Brown before he could walk for nothing in the summer of 2024. At that point, the confidence level he wants to remain with the Celtics would have to be fairly low, as no one passes up the so-called “supermax extension” when it’s offered.

My favorite matchup tonight is between the AL Wildcard leading Blue Jays and the Central leading Twins. After breaking in as a top prospect with Minnesota, Jose Berrios was dealt to Toronto at the 2021 deadline. Now he returns to his former home and will face their new pitcher Tyler Mahle who was just acquired at this year's deadline.

Berrios has been flat out bad in his first full season north of the border but he’s always performed well at Target Field and can pile up Ks even when he’s struggling. Likewise, Mahle previously flashed elite K rates in 2019 despite an inconsistent career to date. Perhaps he can recapture previous success in his first stint outside of hitter friendly Great American Ballpark. 

Both offenses rank among the bottom half in K% vRHP but they still strike out well over 20% and can be victimized by good pitching. I’ll take the pitching side here and the over on 5.5 Ks for both Berrios and Mahle. Consider also adding Twins ML (+106) as home underdogs in what is essentially a 50/50 matchup.

Our weekly series of “The next $50M Wide Receiver” continues, this time with Deebo Samuel, whose 3 year, $71.55M extension with the 49ers includes $41M fully guaranteed at signing. Our deep dive into the rest of the numbers continues here.

The $23.85M Average Salary

The new money average salary chimes in just above Terry McLaurin’s recent deal ($22.7M), and just under DK Metcalf’s ($24M).

Overall, the AAV is good enough for 8th among active wide receivers, and soon to be 1st on the 49ers (once the Garoppolo situation flushes out).

The $58.1M Guaranteed

But who’s counting average salaries anyway. The number that matters most at the onset of this contract is the $58.1M all of which becomes fully guaranteed by April 1st, 2023.

At the time of signing (+ a few days later), $41M of the contract fully locks in, including Deebo’s signing bonus, 2022 salary, 2023 salary, 2023 per game active bonus, 2023 workout bonus, a 2023 option bonus, and $4.555M of 2024 salary.

In other words, he’s good for a while. None of the $17.5M compensation for 2025 comes with an early vesting guarantee trigger, making it a veritable option year for the contract.

Deebo’s $41M guaranteed at signing ranks 5th among WR deals, while the $58.1M of practical guarantees chimes in 9th.

The Cash Flow

The $24.035M signing bonus + minimum $965,000 salary in 2022 means $25M of cash for the upcoming season. This ranks 7th among active wide receiver contracts (Metcalf is 1st with $31M).

From there, Samuel will see $36.2M in two seasons (16th), and $58.1M through three seasons (8th). 

The Cap Flow

Samuel’s 2022 cap hit rises from $5.1M to $6.6M (+$1.5M). His 2023 hit remains extremely team friendly ($8.68M) before things get a little squirrely. Two void years in 2026-2027 help keep things somewhat tamer.

2022: $6.6M
2023: $8.6M
2024: $28.5M
2025: $24.2M
2026: $8.49M (dead cap)

Deebo’s $20.9M base salary in 2024 is an obvious restructure candidate, a move that would jack up the 2025 hit, and the voidable dead cap as well.

Rushing Incentives

Deebo wasn’t lying. Early in the offseason, reports swirled that Samuel was unhappy with his role as a gadget offensive weapon, alluding the fact that he wanted to limit his rushing attempts in the 49ers offense.

He backed that sentiment up contractually, building in not-likely-to-be-earned incentives tied to Rushing Yards and Rushing Touchdowns.

2023-25 Annual Incentives (max $650,000)
$650,000 for 380+ Rush yards
$150,000 for 3 Rush TDs

In other words, the Niners can choose to use him this way - but it’ll cost them.

Concluding Thoughts

This is in no way a top of the market wide receiver contract, but it’s perfectly plausible that Deebo left a little cash on the table in order to guarantee his freedom before age 30. The deal mimics A.J. Brown’s contract nicely, including guaranteed per game active and workout bonuses splattered all over each year following the 2022 season.

With Top 10 guarantees, and Top 10 3-year cash payouts, there’s simply not much to complain about from the player’s perspective. Toss in the unique rushing incentives, and Deebo may become a $24.5M per year player for much of this contract.

NBA teams have signed nearly 200 players to new contracts totaling over $4 billion in new money. While that seems like a staggering figure, it’s important to note that the NBA business is as healthy as it’s ever been.

The NBA and NBPA navigated through three pandemic-impacted seasons and have come out of them better than anyone expected. The cap rose from $112.1 million for 2021-22 to $123.6 million for 2022-23.

The cap projects to continue that upward momentum. The conservative projection for 2023-24 is $133 million, with the luxury tax line set at $161 million. By as soon as the 2025-26 season, it won’t be a surprise if the cap is over $150 million.

But that’s something to look at down the line. Even though the 2022-23 season hasn’t tipped off yet, several teams are clearly preparing for the 2023 offseason already. We’re using the conservative cap projection of $133 million as we take our first look at what the landscape might look like in the summer of 2023.

(Note: 2023 standings projections have been used here to determine 2023 NBA Draft selections and their corresponding cap holds. Projections on options, guarantees and renouncements have also been made. No trades have been projected for any teams.)

Cap Space Teams

1. Houston Rockets - $70.1 million
2. Detroit Pistons - $62.9 million
3. Indiana Pacers - $53.1 million
4. San Antonio Spurs - $46.3 million
5. Utah Jazz - $33.4 million
6. Oklahoma City Thunder - $32 million
7. Orlando Magic - $31.7 million
8. Cleveland Cavaliers - $25.1 million
9. Memphis Grizzlies - $19.8 million
10. Charlotte Hornets - $19.7 million
11. Los Angeles Lakers - $19.1 million

11 teams project to have cap space in the summer of 2023. There’s a good chance a few others could join them too. And, of course, a few teams above could drop off this list as they continue to make roster moves.

The Rockets are looking at hitting the summer of 2023 with seven players on rookie scale contracts, Jae’Sean Tate on a team-friendly deal and another top-five draft pick. Even if Kevin Porter signs an extension, Houston will be in the mix for the most cap space in the league.

The Pistons are in a very similar boat. Six players on rookie scale deals, Marvin Bagley on a fully guaranteed deal and a likely top-10 pick. Detroit feels slightly more ready to take the next step than the Rockets (but only slightly!). That means that after a few years of collecting assets and renting out their cap space, Detroit could be a real player in free agency in 2023.

The Pacers are still sorting through their rebuild. They shipped Malcolm Brogdon off already and could do the same with Myles Turner too. That would leave Indiana without a lot of long-term salary obligations. That could make for a very quick retool of their roster, as opposed to a multi-year rebuild.

San Antonio is tearing things down almost fully. They signed Keldon Johnson to a very fair value extension. They’ve got Doug McDermott on the final year of his three-year deal at $13.75 million. Beyond that it’s basically all rookie deals. The Spurs are tanking, which has historically worked out well for them. The last two times they took this approach they ended up with David Robinson and Tim Duncan. Is Victor Wembanyama next?

Utah is in the same boat as the Spurs. This projection doesn’t factor in Donovan Mitchell being traded, but that seems likely to happen. In that case, the Jazz could be up near Rockets/Pistons territory as far as cap space goes. Cap flexibility, a ton of draft picks and some interesting young players? Sounds like a Danny Ainge rebuild is well underway in Utah.

Oklahoma City and Orlando are in the same boat. Great young talent, a few key players signed long-term and a ton of cap flexibility. They’re both on their way back up.

The final four teams are swing teams. If Cleveland re-signs Collin Sexton, they probably drop out of the cap space running. They can then stay over the cap and re-sign some key players. If they don’t re-sign Sexton, or he takes the qualifying offer, the Cavs are probably in the running to push for max cap space with another salary-clearing move.

The Grizzlies have a lot of different ways they can go, same with the Hornets. Memphis is clearly well ahead of Charlotte, because they have Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr and Desmond Bane, who are better than LaMelo Ball and question marks. But both teams could be players in 2023 free agency to add pieces around their young stars.

You might be surprised to see the Lakers land here, but with Russell Westbrook coming off the books, LA is in position to add around LeBron James (this projection reflects him either re-signing or his cap hold being retained) and Anthony Davis. There’s not much else on the books for the Lakers. If they trade Westbrook for a player signed long-term, or for a player they project to re-sign for big money, they’ll be right back in the same boat as the last couple of seasons with the Taxpayer MLE and minimums to fill out the roster.

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Brooklyn Nets
2. Chicago Bulls
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
4. Sacramento Kings

Cap flexibility is a bit of a division between haves and have-nots in the summer of 2023. That’s reflected by just these four teams looking like they’ll have the Non-Taxpayer MLE to use.

Brooklyn is obviously in a weird spot with the uncertainty surrounding Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. If both are gone, the Nets could even end up a cap space team next summer. For now, we’re going to put them here in the middle and, like everyone else, impatiently wait to see how their roster comes together.

The Bulls, Wolves and Kings are all swing teams. If they choose to move on from some of their veterans (Nikola Vucevic, D’Angelo Russell and Harrison Barnes), then they could all be cap space teams. If they retain their rights to re-sign them, or move them in deals to bring in other players, they’ll be over the cap. But all could still be far enough under the tax to use the full MLE.

Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

1. Atlanta Hawks
2. Boston Celtics
3. Dallas Mavericks
4. Denver Nuggets
5. Golden State Warriors
6. LA Clippers
7. Miami Heat
8. Milwaukee Bucks
9. New Orleans Pelicans
10. New York Knicks
11. Philadelphia 76ers
12. Phoenix Suns
13. Portland Trail Blazers
14. Toronto Raptors
15. Washington Wizards

This is a pretty huge group of teams dancing around the luxury tax line. The thing all of these teams have in common is that they’re already locked in to the core of their rosters for at least the next two seasons.

Many of these teams have re-signed players to max or near-max deals in recent years. A few have pending free agents who will be pushing for a max deal next offseason. And a handful are already all but guaranteed to be over the tax.

Of this group, the teams that could end up with a bit more cap flexibility are Dallas, Portland, Toronto and Washington.

The Mavericks have a few key free agents, plus a couple of players on partially guaranteed contracts they could move on from. If so, they’d free up some space to make moves around Luka Doncic.

The Trail Blazers are only going to be flexible if they let Jerami Grant walk. That seems unlikely to happen, unless Portland draws a hard line at what they’ll extend Grant for. They’ll probably be right around the tax.

Toronto could potentially put themselves in position to have cap space, but that would mean moving on from Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. It’s more likely they’ll have those guys back, of have moved them in a trade, and that means the Raptors will be working around the tax line.

Washington has Bradley Beal on his massive new deal, but that’s really their only substantial long-term money. Their summer really hinges on what happens with Kristaps Porzingis and Kyle Kuzma. If either re-signs for big money, the Wizards will be up against the tax.