(1) Kyle Schwarber vs (8) Albert Pujols
Kyle Schwarber leads the NL and all Derby participants with (28) HRs and was rewarded with the top overall seed. Appearing in his 11th All Star Game and 5th Home Run Derby, Pujols is a great nostalgia story but it’s hard to imagine him getting past Kyle Schwarber and keeping pace with this field through two additional rounds.

(2) Pete Alonso vs (7) Ronald Acuna
Alonso is the two time reigning champ and has the most HRs in Derby history (131) but somehow earned the second seed. He’s still the betting favorite but faces perhaps the toughest first round opponent not named Schwarber. I’m not betting against Alonso but Ronald Acuna’s plus plus raw power could play perfectly here. He’s as good of a bet as any if he finds a rhythm and gets through the first round.

(3) Corey Seager vs (6) Julio Rodriguez
Seager returns to Dodger stadium for the first time since signing a massive free agent deal with the Rangers last offseason. He’s typically not thought of as a power hitter but Seager is enjoying a career year and has (22) HRs through the first half - almost matching his career high of 26. Rookie of the Year candidate Julio Rodriguez is favored but I’m more likely to side with the proven veteran given the odds.

(4) Juan Soto vs (5) Jose Ramirez
This matchup is a coin flip and there’s not much to analyze. Two of the best all around hitters in the game and both could easily win this if things fall right. Soto got off to a slow start but has found his power stroke in the past week while Ramirez is as consistent as they come.

Wager of the Week

I agree with Vegas that Schwarber and Alonso are the easy favorites here but the field is talented enough for me to hesitate at the current odds. 

My favorite bets are down the board a bit. Seager is absolutely hammering the ball right now and should be comfortable in his former home stadium. Jose Ramirez has one of the easiest power swings in the game and could compete with anyone in the field across three rounds.

• Corey Seager (+1200)
• Jose Ramirez (+1400)

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK'S HR DERBY ODDS

With training camps approaching, we'll categorize the more notable NFL positions into "financial tiers", breaking down which players are locked in, playing for a new deal, could be on their way out, & plenty more.

• FOUR FOR FOUR
• THREE & WE'LL SEE
• LET'S PLAY TWO
• ONE & DONE
• WHO BLINKS FIRST
• THE BRINKS TRUCK IS EN ROUTE
• HANGING ON FOR DEAR LIFE
• MAKE IT OR BREAK IT (UP)
• LET'S GIVE IT A MINUTE

Four for Four

Four Quarterbacks possess a contract that contains stability through the 2025 season, giving them four years of practical guarantee.

Kyler Murray (Cardinals, 25)

Signed Through: 2028
Guaranteed Through: 2027
Guarantee Remaining: $160M

Murray's deal would be surprisingly strong for the best quarterback in football, so for a guy who's shown signs, but hasn't yet put together a full season of top tier play, it's a bit of shocker. It'll be extremely hard for Murray to not see $215M+ out of this contract through 2027 based on guarantee structure.

Deshaun Watson (Browns, 27)

Signed Through: 2026
Guaranteed Through: 2026
Guarantee Remaining: $230M

Love it or hate it, the fully guaranteed multi-year QB contract is here. Watson stands to forfeit $57,500 per week missed this year due to suspension (yes, really), unless he’s given a full-year ban. If it’s the latter, his contract will toll, setting up Cleveland for a huge financial benefit in 2023, as his cap hit next year will drop from $54.9M, to $10M.

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs, 27)

Signed Through: 2031
Guaranteed Through: 2025 (ish)
Guarantee Remaining: $149M

Mahomes’ contract has early guarantee triggers through 2030, making it extremely difficult for the Chiefs to maneuver around it. We’ve identified 2025 as a line of demarcation because it’s the final year where the guarantee mechanisms reduce from two years ahead to just one (2025 compensation guarantees in 2023, but the 2026 compensation doesn’t guarantee until 2025). The Chiefs opted not to restructure his contract again this year, keeping the dead cap “tenable” in 2025/2026. There’s still no easy out here, but KC is at least giving themselves a chance to sustain financial stability through the middle of this deal (when Mahomes will likely ask to rip it up and start anew).

Josh Allen (Bills, 26)

Signed Through: 2028
Guaranteed Through: 2025
Guarantee Remaining: $144M

To say that Allen’s deal is a 5 year, $164M contract practically speaking is to call it quite a value for the Bills, who will enter 2022 as the odds on favorites. Allen will lock in $47M this year thanks to the double bonus structure in his deal, but his $16M cap hit ranks 44th in the NFL, and 2nd on the Bills. Buffalo would like to see this contract run through at least the 2026 season, leaving 2 years, $81.5M (non-guaranteed) to restructure when Allen will be just north of 30 years old. There’s another massive deal in his future.

Matthew Stafford (Rams, 34)

Signed Through: 2026
Guaranteed Through: 2025
Guarantee Remaining: $152M

Talk about a perfect storm scenario, Stafford’s 2021-22 couldn’t have been scripted any better, putting him in line for what had to be a top of the market contract. While the $40M AAV doesn’t set any records, and the $63M guaranteed at signing seems paltry in comparison to others, Stafford will see $61.5M cash this year, a $57M guarantee next March, and it minimum, $120M through 2024. There’s a chance LAR is paying him $10M to leave town for 2025, but they’ll cross that bridge when they get there.

Three & We’ll See (Kind Of)

It was tempting to put this contract in the “one and done” tier, but while Green Bay trading Rodgers after 2022 is possible, Aaron leaving $110M on the table doesn’t seem so.

Aaron Rodgers (Packers, 39)

Signed Through: 2026
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $150M

There’s a lot to unpack with this contract, but the easiest takeaway is if Rodgers wants to play football for the 3 seasons, he’ll see $150M cash - no ifs ands or buts. Here’s the issue. Because the contract contains a 2022 signing bonus, a 2023 option bonus, and a 2024 option bonus, there’s bonus proration splattered all over it, which in turn becomes dead cap for the Packers. If Rodgers remains in Green Bay through 2024 (41 years old), the Packers will be staring at $76.8M of dead cap on the contract to start 2025. The contract does allow for tradeability after the 2022 season, if that becomes a thing again.

Let’s Play Two

Cousins, Ryan, & Prescott all have two more years fully guaranteed on their deals, with Kirk leading the way at a $70M payout.

Kirk Cousins (Vikings, 34)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $70M

Short and sweet has done Kirk Cousins just fine over the past decade. The 34-year-old has averaged $21M cash per year over the past 6 seasons, and will cash out $40M & $30M respectively over the next two - fully guaranteed.

Matt Ryan (Colts, 37)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $53.9M

The Colts tweaked Ryan’s deal a bit upon acquiring him from Atlanta, bumping up his compensation slightly, and guaranteeing the bulk of his next two seasons, the practical window of contention for this Indy squad. Ryan’s career earnings will vault to $321M at contract end.

Dak Prescott (Cowboys, 29)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $51M

Dak slow-played himself into a quick and dirty $126M. His $31M salary for 2023 is already fully guaranteed, locking him in securely for the next two seasons. It’s a 1 year, $34M “option” for 2024, with a restructured extension prior to it the more likely outcome.

One & Done

For a variety of reasons, these players will be playing out 2022 with the prospect of joining the QB Carousel next March.

Tom Brady (Buccaneers, 45)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $15M

How many retirements is too many retirements? Brady will earn a total of $30M in 2022, half of which comes from his previous signing bonus. The current contract carries $35.1M of dead cap in the 2023 (void years), but an extension prior to the void can reduce that down under $11M. The $30M to be made this year raises his career earnings past $332M on the field.

Ryan Tannehill (Titans, 34)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $29M

The Titans put the writing on the wall with their securities about Tannehill going forward when they refused to restructure his NFL leading $38.6M cap hit this spring. It’s clear that their QB1 is on a year to year showcase, and that the only thing keeping him in the fold this season, is the $29M salary that became fully guaranteed in March of 2021. Tennessee can free up almost $18M of cap space next year to move on.

Carson Wentz (Commanders, 30)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $28.3M

Washington gave up three draft picks for the right to pay Wentz $28M+ this season, but this doesn’t need to be a “one and done” situation. If we’re playing glass half full here, should the Wentz/Washington marriage work out, a 3 year, $81M contract for a veteran QB1 certainly has value. $9M of his 2023 compensation locks in early next March, so we’ll know quickly how things will proceed after 2022. There’s $0 dead cap on the deal going forward ($26.1M savings next season to move on).

Derek Carr (Raiders, 31)

Signed Through: 2025
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $24.9M

We’re just being fair to the structure here. Carr’s new contract contains just $24.8M fully guaranteed at signing, all in 2022. Another $40M is set to lock in next March, but until then, Las Vegas will have a legitimate out (if say, a certain Green Bay QB is trying to get out again). With that said, Carr was able to build in a full no-trade clause in this deal, putting him at least in charge of where his next destination might be, if anywhere.

Jameis Winston (Saints, 28)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $15.2M

It’s unclear if Winston will be healthy enough to start Week 1, but at some point this season, he’ll be given a chance to win this job back for the immediate future (so says his contract). $5.8M of his $12.8M compensation in 2023 guarantees in early March, so if he’s not the guy, this will be a quick hook.

Marcus Mariota (Falcons, 29)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $6.75M

Mariota gets another attempt to showcase his starting QB abilities, and there are worse offensive situations to be dropped into. A tight end heavy, mobile quarterback friendly offense could really match well with a seasoned Mariota, despite Atlanta projecting to be one of the worst teams in all of football this year. A $3M roster bonus next March will be a sticking point for 2023.

Mitchell Trubisky (Steelers, 28)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $5.25M

We’re projecting Trubisky to win the QB1 spot over Kenny Pickett out of the gate, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll hold serve for 18 weeks. His $6.2M compensation for 2022 aligns with high-end backup pay, so Pittsburgh isn’t reaching in any regard to take this shot.

Daniel Jones (Giants, 25)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $4.2M

Despite a vote of confidence from the new regime, Daniel Jones saw his $22.3M option for 2023 declined this May, putting him on an expiring rookie contract in New York. The Giants seem poised to give him every opportunity to prove his worth this season, but they also handed out $8M+ guaranteed to Tyrod Taylor this March, including nearly $3M in 2023.

Drew Lock (Seahawks, 26)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: N/A
Guarantee Remaining: $0

Will Sam Darnold, Geno Smith or Jimmy Garoppolo poach the starting gig from Lock prior to Week 1? Maybe, but we’re projecting otherwise right now. Lock seems the perfect candidate to get Seattle through an expedited rebuild/tank this year, putting them in position to select their future QB1 in the 2023 draft. Is the roster too talented to succeed in this fashion? It’s possible, but Seattle may not yet be done subtracting this offseason.

Who Blinks First?

A couple of MVP caliber quarterbacks who can’t seem to get on the same page with their respective teams in terms of their sophomore extensions. Kyler seems likely to get this done by August. Lamar looks more like a 2023/tag conversation.

Lamar Jackson (Ravens, 25)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $23M

Despite plenty of “reports”, the fact of the matter is that a new contract for Lamar Jackson doesn’t currently exist, and it appears that will be the case for the 2022 season. This means that an exclusive franchise tag is likely coming next February, putting plenty of pressure on the Ravens to resolve this. He projects to a 4 year, $176M extension in our system.

The Brinks Truck Is En Route

Big money is coming, will it all be fully guaranteed?

Russell Wilson (Broncos, 34)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: N/A
Guarantee Remaining: $0

As Matthew Stafford did with the Rams last offseason, Wilson and the Broncos appear poised to play the “one year to settle in” plan before dealing with a new contract. Wilson’s current contract holds $51M through 2023, but none of it is guaranteed. If all goes well this year, the 34 year old projects to a 4 year, $176M extension next offseason.

Joe Burrow (Bengals, 26)

Signed Through: 2023 (+2024 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $9.4M

Burrow will become extension eligible for the first time after the 2022 season. If the upcoming season looks anything like 2021 did, the fully guaranteed $50M per year request will send itself. But are the Bengals the type of organization to meet these top of the market demands? There are plenty of scenarios that tell us no. This situation could go from amazing to terrible in a hot minute. With that said, including the no-brainer 5th year option in 2024, Cincy has 3 years of team control ahead of them, even if the new contract noise gets louder and louder by the week.

Justin Herbert (Chargers, 24)

Signed Through: 2023 (+2024 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2023Guarantee Remaining: $7.2M

Herbert will become extension eligible for the first time after the 2022 season, and while he doesn’t have the team success that a Joe Burrow currently possesses, he has ALL the individual numbers on his side. The 24 year old currently projects to a 6 year, $258M extension, putting him in line with Josh Allen’s recent deal with the Bills. If the other LA team can put it together this year, the sky might be the limit here financially.

Hanging on for Dear Life

Goff can certainly play himself into another season (he has 3 left under contract), while Baker is playing for some kind of contract in 2023.

Jared Goff (Lions, 28)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $26M

Goff threw 19 TDs against 8 INTs in 14 games for the Lions last year, posting a 91 Passer Rating, his highest in 3 seasons. He’s almost certainly not the long term answer for Detroit, but he’ll prove to be an adequate stopgap for the time being. The Lions can walk away from the remaining 2 years, $52.3M after 2022 with a $10M dead cap hit.

Baker Mayfield (Panthers, 27)

Signed Through: 2022
Guaranteed Through: 2022
Guarantee Remaining: $18.8M

No surprise here. Mayfield will compete with Darnold for the starting gig in Carolina (potentially on a weekly basis?). The Panthers will pay out around $4.8M in base pay ($3.5M incentives), while Cleveland takes on $10.5M of retained salary to move on. Does he get Trubisky’ed next year? Franchise tagged? Extended? All are possible.

Make it Or Break It (Up)

While these three quarterbacks have plenty of team control left on their rookie deals, there’s a sense that for Tua & Hurts, the organizations have done all they can to provide them the best “showcase” season possible. If they don’t hold up their end of the bargain, it’s widely expected that their respective teams will look elsewhere going forward. For Mills, he’s a solid prospect, acting as a stopgap in a slow Houston rebuild.

Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins, 24)

Signed Through: 2023 (+2024 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2023
Guarantee Remaining: $8.1M

The Dolphins certainly upped the stakes with Tua’s immediate future status, adding key pieces to every facet of the roster (including Teddy Bridgewater as a QB2). Factor in a creative, offensive-minded coach, and an owner seemingly trying everything to win (Tom Brady, Sean Payton, etc…), and it’s an understatement to say this is a big year for Tua.

Jalen Hurts (Eagles, 24)

Signed Through: 2023
Guaranteed Through: N/A
Guarantee Remaining: $0

Like Tua (above), Hurts has been given plenty of toys to play with offensively over the past two offseasons, and will be firmly in the spotlight as a breakout candidate for 2022. Unlike Tua, Jalen’s rookie contract guarantees have all expired, putting him on a year to year basis through 2023 (no 5th year option available thereafter). 

Davis Mills (Texans, 24)

Signed Through: 2024
Guaranteed Through: N/A
Guarantee Remaining: $0

Mills showed enough late last year to earn the QB1 job for a team going through a slow rebuild right now. But he’ll need to take a leap in 2022 to have a chance to be in the future plans for the Texans. Though his contract holds 3 years, $3.4M left, none of it is guaranteed.

Let’s Give it A Minute

These five quarterbacks are entering year two of their rookie contracts, with a few (Lawrence/Jones) at least starting to be considered for a second deal. It’s a big year for all (maybe excluding Justin Fields in his current climate).

Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars, 23)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $12M

While Lawrence racked up plenty of yardage (3,640), the efficiency numbers left plenty to desire (12 TD, 17 INT, 72 rating). But we’ve seen plenty of historic QBs go through rookie campaigns like this, only to break out 12-24 months later. Jacksonville’s aggressive offseason both with the coaching staff and the active roster puts Lawrence on a great path to succeed in 2022.

Zach Wilson (Jets, 23)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $11.5M

Wilson completed 55% of his passes for 2,334 yards and a 70 rating in his rookie campaign, making Jets fans feel extremely Jets-y. The front office combatted that with a big offseason via draft & free agency (including a legitimate run at Tyreek Hill), creating what may be a false optimism, but at least putting Wilson in a better spot than he was a year ago. There’s no reason to sniff a 2nd contract discussion here yet.

Trey Lance (49ers, 22)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $11.3M

We’re projecting Lance to win the QB1 gig over Garoppolo this summer, and that’s about all we can project. The Niners gave up a trade package to select Lance that suggests he’s the next coming of Steve Young in San Francisco, but with Deebo Samuel disgruntled, OC Mike McDaniel now in Miami, and a few offensive lineman questionable still, middle of the road might be the best case scenario here in 2022.

Justin Fields (Bears, 23)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024

Guarantee Remaining: $7.1M

It was a rough rookie campaign for Fields, who threw 7 TDs against 11 INTs for a 73 rating in 12 games. The good news? He’ll have full control of this offense out of the gate. The bad news? There’s a lot of “new” around him, and not much evidence that it’s going to lead to any success. This might very well be a Lamar Jackson type year for Fields, where he’s asked to do everything with his superpowers.

Mac Jones (Patriots, 24)

Signed Through: 2024 (+2025 option)
Guaranteed Through: 2024
Guarantee Remaining: $6.14M

Year one for Jones saw 3,800 yards, 22/13 TD/INT, a 92.5 rating, and a #11 QB grade from PFF. There’s a ton of optimism, and a few new weapons around him, but with Josh McDaniels departed, there’s still no reason to rush into a $40M conversation.

On Thursday, August 4, LeBron James is eligible to sign a veteran extension with the Los Angeles Lakers. Whether James will do so, or not, is a very open question. Because LeBron James will turn 38 years old this season, his next deal is going to be subject to the Over-38* rule. This is true if James signs an extension, re-signs with the Lakers as a free agent in the summer of 2023 or leaves for a new team in the summer of 2023.

At this point, because James is still in a position to command a max deal, we’re only going to entertain those as options for him moving forward. It’s unlikely he’d take less than the max, so there’s not a lot of point laying out what those scenarios look like.

Because of that, and the Over-38 rule, James is left with three real options:

• Signing an extension with the Lakers
• Playing out his deal and signing a new contract with Los Angeles in 2023 free agency
• Playing out his deal and signing a contract with another team in 2023 free agency

Extension Options

James can sign either a one-year or two-year extension with the Lakers. Here’s what those would look like:

One-Year Extension

• 2023-24: $46,698,737

Two-Year Extension

• 2023-24: $46,698,737
• 2024-25: $50,434,636
• Total: $97,133,373

It’s likely that any multi-year deal, extension or new contract, will have a player option on the final season. James has been open about his desire to retain the flexibility to play with his son Bronny in the NBA. The earliest the younger James can join the NBA is during the 2024-25 season.

In both of these options, the starting salary is 105% of James current salary for the 2022-23 season. In the two-year option, he then gets an 8% raise off that first-year salary.

New Contract with Lakers

If LeBron James lets his contract expire at the end of the upcoming season, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent next summer. The Lakers will have full Bird Rights for James, so they would be able to offer him a contract worth 105% of his current salary in Year 1 of a new deal. If the cap jumps enough that James’ max is more than that, then he could get up to the 35% of the cap max.

For now, we’ll stick with 105% of his current salary and build from there.

One-Year New Contract

• 2023-24: $46,698,737

Two-Year New Contract

• 2023-24: $46,698,737
• 2024-25: $50,434,636
• Total: $97,133,373

Three-Year New Contract

• 2023-24: $46,698,737
• 2024-25: $50,434,636
• 2025-26: $54,170,535
• Total: $151,303,908

As you can see, the first two options are exactly the same as the extension options. Such is life when you are already at or above the max salary.

The major difference here is the ability to offer a third year. In James’ case, it’s unclear how much that would matter, as he likely wants the flexibility to pick his spot in 2024, when his son Bronny can join the league. It’s unlikely that third-year, even at $54 million-plus would sway James.

New Contract with Another Team

It seems fairly unlikely that LeBron James will leave the Lakers this summer. But there was a point where it seemed like he would never play for the Cleveland Cavaliers again too.

Just in case James has tired of the Lakers and is ready to play somewhere else, we’ll present his options for signing with another team.

One-Year New Contract

• 2023-24: $46,698,737

Two-Year New Contract

• 2023-24: $46,698,737
• 2024-25: $49,033,674
• Total: $95,732,411

Three-Year New Contract

• 2023-24: $46,698,737
• 2024-25: $49,033,674
• 2025-26: $51,368,611
• Total: $147,101,022

By virtue of his status as a 10+ Years of Service Player, James actually qualifies for the same Year 1 salary with another team as he would with the Lakers. This only applies to players coming off a maximum salary that is at or above that year’s maximum. This allows James to get a first-year salary with a new team that is 105% of his previous salary. The new team, of course, must have $46.7 million in cap space to sign James outright in this situation, or the ability to acquire James via sign-and-trade.

The difference comes in with the raises. James can get 8% raises with the Lakers, but only 5% with another team. But, at this point in his career, $1.5 million to $4.2 million difference in total salary isn’t going to swing James either way.

If James leaves the Lakers, it won’t be about salary. Nor will the Lakers be able to overwhelm him with so much more money that staying is a no-brainer. If James leaves the Lakers, it will be because he wants to play somewhere else and for no other reason.

Summary

In other “Next Contract” pieces, the salary math has been widely varied and the options have been plentiful. Despite LeBron James still being near the top of his game, his already-max salary and his age, make his options far more limited.

No matter what James does, he’s going to give himself options for the 2024-25 season. He’s repeatedly said that playing with his son Bronny will be his priority in the season Bronny joins the league. That doesn’t mean we can rule out a two-year extension or a new two-year deal, but that second year is going to be a player option.

Don’t be surprised if August 4 comes and goes without James having signed an extension. There’s really no rush for him to do so. Keeping his options open continues to put pressure on the Lakers to make moves to be a title contender.

Whether it’s later this summer, sometime during this season, or next summer, it’s very likely LeBron James will sign a two-year contract with the Los Angeles Lakers. But with a player option on the second year, James will likely once again control free agency in the summer of 2024 as he heads into his record-tying 22nd NBA season.

*The Over-38 rule closes a loophole in the NBA where a team could give an older player a long-term contract with the intention of that player retiring before the full amount of their contract was due.

In this situation, if the player is over 38 years old, or will be during the duration of the deal, the years when the player is over-38 are handled differently salary-wise and cap/tax hit-wise. The salary for the over-38 years is actually applied to the earlier years of the contract as far as cap/tax hit goes.

In the case of LeBron James, or any other max salary player of his age, you can’t frontload the contract above the max. However, the Over-38 rule does limit James to signing a three-year contract.

For more on the Over-38 rule, see the CBAFAQ here.

Almost immediately after the Golden State Warriors won the 2022 NBA Finals, the criticisms started. Their fourth title in eight years was called a “checkbook win”. There’s also been reporting that Joe Lacob’s fellow NBA governors are upset about the Warriors lavish spending.

To be fair, Golden State has outspent the rest of the NBA by a wide margin over the last half-decade or so. That’s a fact.

Last season, the Warriors were over $39 million over the luxury tax line. That amount, combined with the subsequent penalties for being so far over the tax, plus being a luxury tax repeater team, hit Golden State with a total tax bill of over $170 million.

The second-most expensive team in terms of total tax bill? The Brooklyn Nets at roughly $97.7 million. Third on the list were the LA Clippers at $83 million.

That’s $72 million to $87 million more than the next two most expensive teams in the NBA last season. Even more staggering? The Warriors paid far more in luxury taxes than the other four tax teams did combined. The Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Lakers, Utah Jazz and Philadelphia 76ers combined to pay approximately $131.7 million in tax payments last season. That’s more than $38 million less than the Warriors.

The other 23 teams? No tax payments at all. They all got a check from the tax teams that totaled about $11 million per non-taxpaying team.

Even if you consider the Nets and Clippers to be within range of the Warriors, that still leaves 27 teams fighting to catch the champs in terms of spending. Thus, the bellyaching that Golden State is operating in a realm the rest of the NBA can’t hope to play in.

Boo hoo. Grab a tissue and wipe your tears while the world’s smallest violin plays a somber tune for your melancholy.

Yes, small market teams probably can’t spend what the Warriors are spending. That is true. The TV and metro markets of teams like the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies are a fraction of that of Golden State’s market. They’d have struggles keeping up that level of spending over a period of a few years, never mind over the bulk of a decade.

But the Milwaukee Bucks and Utah Jazz are in markets as small as the teams listed above and both were luxury tax teams last season. The “small market” Portland Trail Blazers have regularly been tax payers too.

Market size clearly doesn’t, and shouldn’t, dictate ownership’s willingness to pay the tax. When you have the right team, you pay for it. Compete for titles, and you get expensive. That’s just how it works in the NBA. Even the small-market-example-of-excellence Spurs regularly paid the tax when they were competing to win the Finals.

And that’s the real crux of this argument. Have the Golden State Warriors bought championships, à la the accusation often leveled at the George Steinbrenner-era New York Yankees?

No. Or, at least, not exactly.

Since the Warriors won their first title in 2016, they’ve paid the tax in five of eight seasons. In their four championship seasons, Golden State has only actually paid the tax in two of those years.

Now, this year’s tax bill got a bit out of control. But that’s come from years of spending starting to add up, as opposed to a one-year, or series of one-year, spending sprees. That’s one place where the comparisons to the Yankees fall apart.

The other place the Yankees comp comes up short? The Warriors aren’t building the bulk of their roster through free agent signings and trading for players other teams can no longer afford.

Here’s the Warriors roster from last season and how they acquired each player:

• Nemanja Bjelica – 2021 Minimum Exception
• Stephen Curry – 2009 Draft
• Draymond Green – 2012 Draft
• Andre Iguodala – 2021 Minimum Exception
• Jonathan Kuminga – 2021 Draft
• Damion Lee – 2018 Minimum Exception
• Kevon Looney – 2015 Draft
• Moses Moody – 2021 Draft
• Gary Payton II – 2021 Minimum Exception
• Jordan Poole – 2019 Draft
• Otto Porter Jr. – 2021 Minimum Exception
• Klay Thompson – 2011 Draft
• Juan Toscano-Anderson – 2020 Minimum Exception
• Andrew Wiggins – 2020 Trade
• James Wiseman 2020 Draft
• Chris Chiozza – 2021 Two-Way
• Quinndary Weatherspoon – 2021 Two-Way

Here’s how those acquisitions break down:

• Draft – 8 players
• Minimum Exception – 6 players
• Two-Way – 2 players
• Trade – 1 player

Outside of Andrew Wiggins, every player on the roster was acquirable by a means available to every other team. With eight players acquired via the draft, the Warriors are one of the more homegrown teams in the NBA. Funnily enough, the highest-drafted of those eight players, James Wiseman, didn’t even appear in a game last season.

Now, that homegrown talent has largely blossomed and they’ve signed very lucrative contract extensions, followed by second and third extensions by some of the players. That’s largely what pushes Golden State’s salary plus tax commitment into the stratosphere.

Yes, they acquired Wiggins through a chain of transactions that relates back to signing Kevin Durant as a free agent. But even that original Durant acquisition wasn’t about just overpaying and “buying” a title. That 2016 signing was aided by a cap spike and the vastly under-market deal of Stephen Curry at the time.

After his initial 1+1 deal, Durant opted out. He did the same thing one more time. In total, Durant signed three different deals with the Warriors to keep pushing his salary higher. But when Durant wanted to leave, Golden State didn’t just let him walk. They kept that salary slot alive by working a double sign-and-trade to acquire D’Angelo Russell.

About seven months later, Russell was flipped for Wiggins, and his then-seen-as toxic contract. Two-and-a-half seasons and a title later, opinions on Wiggins’ deal have softened or flipped entirely.

In total, the Warriors made one chained-together set of deals that turned Durant into Russell into Wiggins that was even remotely enabled by their ability to spend.

Beyond that Durant-Russell-Wiggins salary slot, of which you can find a similarly exorbitant deal on the books of almost every team in the NBA over the last decade, all the Warriors have done is paid to keep their own players, while largely filling out their roster with minimum signings.

Which begs the questions: Was Golden State supposed to let their own players leave? Are the Warriors to be faulted for drafting and developing, and then paying, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson? How about Jordan Poole when he’s next to sign a big new deal?

If the answer is no, then what’s the crying about? The name of the game, for all 30 NBA teams, is always “draft and develop” first. The Warriors have simply been better at that than most for a decade.

The next logical question becomes: Can, or could, any other team have continued to up their salary plus tax commitment over a long period to keep a title team together?

This one is a little more complicated. But outside of the situation where James Harden was traded from Oklahoma City to Houston, what title contender has ever failed to pay to keep an All-Star around? To go a bit further: what team, in general, has lost an All-Star in the last 20 years because of salary concerns?

Yes, that was answering a question with more questions. But the answer to number of All-Stars leaving because their teams wouldn’t pay them is exactly zero. 0. None. Nada. Nil. Zilch. When All-Stars have left teams, it’s been to try to win somewhere else, often at the cost of giving up salary by leaving.

In an era where there are often complaints about super teams and players jumping from team to team seemingly on a whim, Golden State Warriors has built a team of mostly homegrown players and they’ve won more than anyone else over the past decade.

Instead of complaining about the Warriors largesse and skyrocketing tax bills, maybe the fingers should be pointed in the other direction. Why aren’t more teams drafting and developing better? And then, if they do, why aren’t they able to keep those teams together?

The answers to those questions probably aren’t money-based. Those teams didn’t stay together because of other reasons, often driven by failures of the teams or the players on those teams to win enough to keep everyone happy and home.

In a league where every team is owned by billionaires, it’s true that the Golden State Warriors have outspent everyone else. Not because they are the only ones who can, but because they’re the only ones who have. And it’s because they’ve outplayed everyone else during that same period and kept their team together in an era where that rarely happens. That’s a combination that should be applauded and respected instead of abhorred and reviled.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Starting Pitchers

The AL rotation includes one of its highest paid, an ageless wonder, and plenty of contractual value down the line. Gerrit Cole's $36M salary ranks 2nd only to Max Scherzer, who would have found his way here had he avoided injury. Justin Verlander's return to the mound from injury has been nothing short of spectacular, and he's now only 30 innings away from unlocking a $25M player option for the 2023 season.

Relief Pitchers

While other organizations are paying single relievers upwards of $20M per year (unsuccessfully), the Guardians remain on brand, getting extreme value out of their most important positions. Emmanuel Clase will make $20M over the next 5 seasons to hold down the back end of Cleveland's pen. All of these relievers have considerable team control left.

Positional Starters

Lotta star power here. Judge highlights this list not only because of his production, but also his expiring contract status. Ohtani and Devers aren't far behind, and both have serious question marks about staying with their current franchises. When will the Blue Jays strike financially with Vlad? When will Trout cry uncle with the floundering Angels?

Reserves

Miggy Cabrera and Julio Rodriguez aren't here as gimmicks, they've both had excellent first halfs - despite coming from opposite ends of the career spectrum. Benintendi is one of the top trade candidates this month, and Bogaerts player option next year (plus Trevor Story's recent signing) has many monitoring the Boston offseason as well. Meanwhile, the Astros continue Astro-ing.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Starting Pitchers

Gonsolin and Alcantara have been lights out, and one should be throwing out the first pitch at the LA event. Castillo is a top trade candidate, Musgrove is a top extension candidate, and we may be witnessing a swan song season for Kershaw.

Relief Pitchers

Edwin Diaz has been near unhittable, and yet is quietly heading toward the open market. Bednar and Mantiply will be fielding calls this deadline, and Josh Hader's extension situation in Milwaukee is worth monitoring over the next few months as well.

Positional Starters

A third of these starters could hit the open market this fall, and all but Chisholm are well compensated currently. Contreras is a top trade candidate, Goldschmidt is an MVP candidate, and Trea Turner currently projects to a $32M per year extension.

Reserves

The NL East is well represented here, as the Mets and Braves are putting together a big 2022. Pujols received a special selection, Arenado has already said he won't be opting out, Swanson is almost a shoo-in to hit the open market, and the Juan Soto contract/trade talks will only intensify as the Nationals plummet down the standings.

The Texas Rangers return home following a (3-6) road trip against the Royals, Mets and Orioles and the schedule doesn’t get any easier as they’ll greet the AL Central leading Minnesota Twins. The good news is Texas will have their best three starters on the mound with Jon Gray, Martin Perez and Dane Dunning facing off against Sonny Gray, Devin Smeltzer and Dylan Bundy.

Gray and Perez have lived up to their roles as front of the rotation starters and Dunning is talented despite his inconsistent results. On the Twins side, Smeltzer and Bundy have been excellent to start but it feels like both are pitching over their heads. Regression could be coming against a dangerous Rangers offense. 

We would typically attack the home team in their first game back from a lengthy road trip but both teams were off yesterday so it’s less of a factor here. Instead, I’m interested in the home team with plus matchups at almost even odds.

Series Winner:  TEX (+104)

Chicago heads to San Francisco for a crucial interleague matchup as both teams look to keep pace in their respective division races. The White Sox have mostly disappointed but they’re lingering on the fringe of a less competitive division and getting healthy as they begin the second easiest remaining strength of schedule. I believe they’re better positioned to make a run as we flip the calendar to July.

They can get it jump started this weekend as they match up the top end of their rotation (Lynn, Cease, Giolito) against a lesser trio of Cobb, Webb, and Desclafani. With five lefties on offense, the Giants can be difficult for RHPs but I think the strength of these starters in a pitchers ballpark can offset that platoon advantage. I'll take the positive odds on Chicago winning at least two of three on the road.

Series Winner:  CWS (+134)

With the July 15th deadline for teams to extend their tagged players approaching, we’ll assess where things stand with each, including projected multi-year contracts for those still in need.

Already Extended

Cam Robinson (OT, JAX)

The Jaguars left tackle was offered a second franchise in February that valued at $16.6M. Jacksonville bumped that out to 3 years, $54M in April, dropping the 2022 cap hit by $9M, while increasing his cash this year up to $17.75M. It’s a 2 year, $35M contract practically speaking.

Davante Adams (WR, GB/LV)

Adams’ $20.1M franchise tag offer lasted 9 days, as the Packers shipped their star WR to Vegas, who in turn signed the 29-year-old to a 5 year, $140M extension. Adams will now see $23.35M in 2022, and $67.5M through 2024. 

Chris Godwin (WR, TB)

The Bucs didn’t wait around too long to lock in one of Tom Brady’s favorite weapons, extending Godwin out of his $19.1M tag, into a 3 year, $60M contract with $20M cash in 2022, and $40M fully guaranteed through 2023.

David Njoku (TE, CLE)

Njoku finally turned a corner through the second half of 2021, and now seems to have a real place in Cleveland’s offensive mindset. That prompted the Browns to extend him out of the $10.9M tag, into a 4 year, $54.75M contract, including $12.5M cash in 2022. It’s a 3 year, $39.5M deal for practical purposes.

Still on the Tag

Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)

The Cowboys and their tight end remain far apart on a multi-year extension, putting Schultz in line to play out the $10.9M franchise tag he signed in March. The 25-year-old projects to a 4 year, $58M contract in our system, which would make him the 2nd highest average paid tight end in football.

Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)

Like Schultz, Gesicki may be asked to play out 2022 on the $10.9M tag, as the Dolphins have pumped over $500M in new contracts to their roster. With a cap set to soar in 2023, and Gesicki now surrounded by a lot of offensive talent, playing the long game could very much benefit him financially, though he already projects to a 4 year, $57M deal in our system currently. 

Orlando Brown Jr. (OT, KC)

The Chiefs gave up a lot of draft capital in 2021 to acquire their new left tackle, but there doesn’t appear to be too much rush in locking him in long-term this summer. The two sides have been negotiating, but anything below a $100M over 5 years likely isn’t even worth talking about here. Brown projects to a 5 year, $112M contract in our system. There’s a growing sense that he’ll play 2022 on the $16.6M franchise tag.

Jessie Bates III (S, CIN)

Of all the unsigned franchise tag players on this list, Bates seems the least likely to find a worthy extension offer over the next two weeks. The safety market took a big step forward with deals of $17.6M per year for Jamal Adams, & $18.4M per year to Minkah Fitzpatrick. Bates projects around the $16M mark, putting him in line for 5 years, $80M. The $12.9M safety tag is certainly tenable for Cincinnati from a cap/cash standpoint, but with so many rookie deals dispersed across the roster, it should be a priority to lock in their All-Pro defensive back.

Atlanta Hawks

Acquired Dejounte Murray, PG from the Spurs for 3 first round picks, a 1st round swap, and Danilo Gallinari, PF

Boston Celtics

Juwan Morgan, SF $1.82M option exercised
Sam Hauser, SF, $1.56M option declined

Brooklyn Nets

Signed Nicolas Claxton, 2 years, $20M

Signed Patrick Mills, 2 years, $14.5M

Acquired Royce O'Neale from the Jazz for a 2023 first round pick.

Kyrie Irving, PG, $36.5M option exercised

Kessler Edwards, SF, $1.82M option declined

Patrick Mills, PG, $6.18M option declined

Charlotte Hornets

Hired Steve Clifford as coach on a 3 year contract

Acquired Bryce McGowens, SG from the Timberwolves for Josh Minott and a 2nd round pick.

Jalen McDaniels, PF, $1.93M option exercised

Chicago Bulls

Andre Drummond agreed to a 2 year, $6.6M contract

Tony Bradley, C, $2.04M option exercised

Cleveland Cavaliers

Ricky Rubio agreed to a 3 year, $18.4M contract

Dallas Mavericks

JaVale McGee agreed to a 3 year, $20.4M contract

Acquired Christian Wood, PF from the Rockets for Boban Marjanovic, Sterling Brown, Trey Burke, Marquese Chriss and Wendall Moore Jr.

Acquired Jaden Hardy, SG from the Kings for two seconds round picks

Denver Nuggets

Davon Reed agreed to a 2 year, $4.07M contract

Nikola Jokic signed a 5 year, $270M extension

DeAndre Jordan agreed to a 1 year $2.91M contract

Acquired Peyton Watson, SG and two second round picks from the Thunder for JaMychal Green and a first round pick.

Acquired Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG and Ishmael Smith, PG from the Wizards for Monte Morris and Will Barton

Jeff Green, PF, $4.5M option exercised

Detroit Pistons

Kevin Knox agreed to a 2 year, $6M contract

Marvin Bagley III agreed to a 3 year, $37M contract

Acquired a first round pick and two second round picks for Jerami Grant, PF & Ismael Kamagate 

Acquired Kemba Walker, PG and Jalen Duren from the Knicks for a first round pick.

Acquired Nerlens Noel, C, Alec Burks, SG, two second round picks and $6M cash for future considerations

Cory Joseph, PG., $5.16M option exercised

Hamidou Diallo, SG, $5.2M option exercised

Frank Jackson, PG, $3.15M option declined

Luka Garza, C, $1.56M option declined

Carsen Edwards, PG, $1.82M option declined

Agreed to a buyout with Kemba Walker, PG (estimated $6.4M)

Golden State Warriors

Acquired Ryan Rollins, SG from the Hawks for Tyrese Martin and $2M cash

Houston Rockets

Jae’Sean Tate agreed to a 3 year, $22.1M contract

Acquired Boban Marjanovic, Sterling Brown , Trey Burke , Marquese Chriss and Wendall Moore Jr. from Dallas for Christian Wood

Acquired TyTy Washington Jr. and two second round picks from the Timberwolves for Wendall Moore Jr., SF

John Wall, PG, $47.3M option exercised

Agreed to buyout John Wall, PG at $40.8M

Jae’Sean Tate, SF, $1.78M option declined

Indiana Pacers

Acquired Kendall Brown, SF from the Timberwolves for a second round pick.

Oshae Brissett, SF, $1.84M option exercised

Los Angeles Clippers

Amir Coffey agreed to a 3 year, $11M contract

Nicolas Batum agreed to a 2 year, $22M contract

Extended Ivica Zubac, 3 years, $32.8M

Nicolas Batum, SF, $3.33M option declined

Ivica Zubac, C, $7.52M option declined

Los Angeles Lakers

Damian Jones agreed to a 2 year, $4.72M contract

Juan Toscano-Anderson agreed to a 1 year, $1.9M contract

Troy Brown Jr. agreed to a 1 year, $1.97M contract

Lonnie Walker IV agreed to a 1 year, $6.48M contract

Hired Darvin Ham as coach to a 4 year contract

Kendrick Nunn, SG, $5.25M option exercised

Russell Westbrook, PG, $47.1M option exercised

Wenyen Gabriel, PF, $1.88M option exercised

Stanley Johnson, SF, $2.35M option exercised

Memphis Grizzlies

Ja Morant agreed to a 5 year, $193M extension

Tyus Jones agreed to a 2 year, $30M contract

Extended coach Taylor Jenkins 2 years

Acquired Kennedy Chandler, PG from the Spurs for a second round pick and $1M cash.

Acquired Jake LaRavia, PF from the Timberwolves for Walker Kessler, TyTy Washington Jr., and a second round pick.

Acquired David Roddy, PF and Danny Green from the 76ers for De'Anthony Melton

Miami Heat

Dewayne Dedmon agreed to a 2 year, $9M contract

Victor Oladipo agreed to a 1 year, $11M contract

P.J. Tucker, PF, $7.35M option declined

Milwaukee Bucks

Jevon Carter agreed to a 2 year, $4.6M contract

Wesley Matthews agreed to a 1 year, $2.9M contract

Joe Ingles agreed to a 1 year, $6.48M contract

Bobby Portis agreed to a 4 year, $49M contract

Thanasis Antetokounmpo, SF, $1.87M option exercised

Pat Connaughton, SG, $5.73M option exercised

Bobby Portis, PF, $4.56M option declined

Minnesota Timberwolves

Karl-Anthony Towns agreed to a 4 year, $219M extension

Kyle Anderson agreed to a 2 year, $18M contract

Acquired Walker Kessler, C, TyTy Washington Jr. , and a second round pick for Jake LaRavia

Acquired Wendall Moore Jr., SF from the Rockets for TyTy Washington Jr. and two second round picks

Acquired Josh Minott, PF and a second round pick for Bryce McGowens

Extended Taurean Prince, PF, 2 years, $16M

Naz Reid, C, $1.93M option exercised

Jaylen Nowell, SG, $1.93M option exercised

New Orleans Pelicans

N/A

New York Knicks

Jalen Brunson agreed to a 4 year, $104M contract

Isaiah Hartenstein agreed to a 2 year, $16M contract

Acquired Jalen Duren, C from the Hornets for a first round pick and three second round picks

Acquired three first round picks from the Thunder for Ousmane Dieng, SF

Acquired a first round pick from the Pistons for Kemba Walker, PG & Jalen Duren

Acquired future considerations from the Pistons for Nerlens Noel, C, Alec Burks, a second round pick, and $6M cash.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Mike Muscala agreed to a 1 year, $2.64M contract

Luguentz Dort signed a 5 year, $87.5M contract

Acquired JaMychal Green, PF and a first round pick from the Nuggets for Peyton Watson and two second round picks

Acquired Ousmane Dieng, SF from the Knicks for three first round picks

Derrick Favors, C, $10.18M option exercised

Mike Muscala, PF, $3.5M option declined

Luguentz Dort, SG, $1.93M option declined

Isaiah Roby, SF, $1.93M option exercised

Orlando Magic

Mohamed Bamba agreed to a 2 year, $21M contract

Gary Harris signed a 2 year, $26M extension

Philadelphia 76ers

Trevelin Queen agreed to a 2 year, $3.4M contract

Danuel House agreed to a 2 year, $8.5M contract

P.J. Tucker agreed to a 3 year, $33.2M contract

Acquired De'Anthony Melton, SG from the Grizzlies for Danny Green and David Roddy

Shake Milton, SG, $1.99M option exercised

James Harden, SG, $47.4M option declined

Phoenix Suns

Devin Booker signed a 4 year, $214M extension

Portland Trail Blazers

Gary Payton II agreed to a 3 year, $28M contract

Anfernee Simons agreed to a 4 year, $100M contract

Hired Joe Cronin as GM to a 4 year contract

Acquired Jerami Grant, PF and Ismael Kamagate  from the Pistons for a first round pick and two second round picks.

Sacramento Kings

Malik Monk agreed to a 2 year, $19M contract

Hired Mike Brown as coach to a 4 year contract

Acquired two second round picks from the Mavericks for Jaden Hardy, SG

Trey Lyles, PF, $2.63M option exercised

San Antonio Spurs

Acquired a second round pick and 41M cash for Kennedy Chandler, PG

Acquired Danilo Gallinari, PF, three first round picks and a first round swap from the Hawks for Dejounte Murray

Toronto Raptors

Thaddeus Young agreed to a 2 year, $16M contract

Chris Boucher agreed to a 3 year, $35.25M contract

Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, SG, $1.88M option exercised

Utah Jazz

Acquired a 2023 first round pick from the Nets for Royce O'Neale

Juancho Hernangomez waived

Hired Will Hardy as coach to a 5 year contract

Washington Wizards

Delon Wright agreed to a 2 year, $16M contract

Anthony Gill agreed to a 2 year, $3.44M contract

Bradley Beal agreed to a 5 year, $215.02M contract

Acquired Will Barton, SF and Monte Morris  from the Nuggets for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Ishmael Smith

Bradley Beal, SG, $36.4M option declined

The 2019 NBA Draft class is eligible to sign Rookie Scale contract extensions this offseason. Each player has until late-October to agree to an extension. If no agreement is reached, the player will be eligible for restricted free agency in the summer of 2023. A handful of players are ineligible to sign an extension, because they had team options declined or were waived at some point during their rookie scale contract.

By pick, here’s where things stand for each player. We’ll make a prediction on what happens before the late-October extension deadline.

For reference: The standard maximum contract (25% of the cap) these players can sign projects to be $197,229,725 over five years. The Designated Rookie Extension amount (30% of the cap) projects to be $236,675,670 over five years. We’re projecting this off a 10% increase in the salary cap from 2022-23 to 2023-24.

In order to qualify for the Designated Rookie Extension, a player must make All-NBA this coming season, or they can also qualify by winning MVP or Defensive Player of the Year this coming season.

Related: Spotrac's NBA Extension Tracker

1. Zion Williamson – New Orleans Pelicans

   
   In terms of talent, Williamson is worthy of a max extension. The challenge is that he’s played 85 games over three seasons. But those 85 games were incredible. We went in depth on Williamson here (Note: contract estimates have updated since written), so we won’t go as deep here. All the thoughts remain the same.
   Prediction: five years, $197.2 million, protections against injury specified, 5th year player option (largely in exchange for the injury protection language)

2. Ja Morant – Memphis Grizzlies

   
   Morant is a superstar. He’s going to get paid like one too. He’s the only player in this class to have already made an All-NBA team. If he makes one more, he’ll qualify for the Designated Rookie Extension at this point, and he’s probably going to get it.
   Prediction: five years, $197.2 million, 5th year player option, with Designated Rookie language to bump him to five years, $236.7 million, 5th year player option if he makes All-NBA again

3. RJ Barrett – New York Knicks

   
   Barrett is going to ask for a max extension. The Knicks probably don’t want to go there…yet. Barrett is coming off a good season, but his shooting slipped. Unless the Knicks agree to a max now, Barrett should bet on himself and play for a max deal this season and revisit things next summer.
   Prediction: No extension

4. De’Andre Hunter – Atlanta Hawks

   
   Hunter has a lot of potential, but he’s had a lot of trouble staying healthy. Atlanta invested a lot to acquire Hunter in the first place, and now they’ve reportedly removed him from trade discussions. That signals an intention to extend him this offseason.
   Prediction: four years, $80 million, no options

5. Darius Garland – Cleveland Cavaliers

   
   Garland is coming off his first All-Star season. If he can keep that upward trajectory going, he could be an edge candidate to make All-NBA next season. Unless the Cavs offer a full max extension, Garland might bet on himself and earn one this season. Cleveland won’t mess around with their young star, especially after getting a nice value deal on Jarrett Allen last summer.
   Prediction:five years, $197.2 million, 5th year player option

6. Jarret Culver – Memphis Grizzlies

   
   Culver had his fourth-year rookie scale team option declined after he was traded to the Memphis Grizzlies. He’s not eligible to sign an extension and he’ll be an unrestricted free agent this summer.

7. Coby White – Chicago Bulls

   
   White has talent, but he hasn’t quite put it all together in his first three years in the league. He has improved as a shooter each year, so some smart team might swipe him in in a trade to lead their bench unit. But there’s no extension coming for White.
   Prediction: No extension

8. Jaxson Hayes – New Orleans Pelicans

   
   Hayes’ potential remains through the roof, but it’s still potential vs production. The Pelicans probably let this one play out, unless Hayes is willing to sign something really, really team-friendly. And he shouldn’t do that yet.
   Prediction: No extension

9. Rui Hachimura – Washington Wizards

   
   Hachimura looked really good when he finally played last season. In a crowded Wizards frontcourt, he managed to average 11 points per game on 49/45/70 shooting splits. This might be one of those “surprise” extensions that ends up looking really good for the team.
   Prediction: four years, $52 million, no options

10. Cam Reddish – New York Knicks

    
    Reddish is on team two since being drafted. He’s got potential, but everything is theoretical right now, since Reddish hasn’t played much. This one will play out to next summer.
    Prediction: No extension

11. Cameron Johnson – Phoenix Suns

    
    Remember when it looked like Johnson was drafted way too early? Good times! He’s become a deadeye shooter off the bench for Phoenix, and he seems ready for a bigger role. The Suns generally like to lock their players up early. Look for something similar with Johnson.
    Prediction: four years, $60 million, no options

12. P.J. Washington – Charlotte Hornets

    
    Washington has come along as a player, but he’s still been unable to fully crack the starting lineup. His role remains somewhat up in the air. That’s not a great combo when talking extensions.
    Prediction: No extension

13. Tyler Herro – Miami Heat

    
    Herro is the reigning Sixth Man of the Year. How much is that worth in an extension? We wrote in depth on Herro here (Note: contract estimates have updated since written), so we won’t go as deep here.
    Prediction: five years, $197.2 million, no options

14. Romeo Langford – San Antonio Spurs

    
    Langford is hanging on in San Antonio, but he’s kind of approaching “last chance saloon” time. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy, and now he’s part of a very crowded guard/wing mix with the Spurs. He’s playing out this deal, assuming even he sticks on the San Antonio roster.
    Prediction: No extension.

15. Sekou Doumbouya – out of the NBA 

    
    Doumbouya is out of the NBA. He didn’t even really make it to the third year of his rookie scale deal before being waived after being traded from the Detroit Pistons to the Brooklyn Nets to the Houston Rockets.

16. Chuma Okeke – Orlando Magic

    
    Okeke isn’t eligible for an extension yet. Even though he was drafted in 2019, Okeke didn’t sign until before the 2020-21 season, as he was rehabbing from a torn ACL throughout the entirety of the 2019-20 season.

17. Nickeil Alexander-Walker – Utah Jazz

    
    The Jazz took a shot on Alexander-Walker as a trade deadline acquisition last season. He barely played for Utah, but could crack the rotation this upcoming season. But there’s no extension coming for NAW.
    Prediction: No extension

18. Goga Bitadze – Indiana Pacers

    
    Bitadze has had flashes at times for Indiana, but hasn’t played enough to put it all together yet. He probably won’t get extended, but if he can have a big season, Bitadze could earn a nice deal next summer.
    Prediction: No extension

19. Luka Samanic – out of the NBA

    
    The San Antonio Spurs waived Samanic after his second season. He spent most of last year on a Two-Way deal with the New York Knicks, but didn’t appear in an NBA game.

20. Matisse Thybulle – Philadelphia 76ers

    
     Thybulle is in a weird spot. He’s made the All-Defensive Team two years in a row. That’s quite the accomplishment for a young player. But Thybulle’s offensive game hasn’t really grown at all, and seems to have regressed some from his rookie year. He can’t shoot at all. Worse? He’s becoming a non-shooter. Teams simply don’t guard him. How much is an all-defense, no-offense player worth?

    Prediction: No extension unless he’s traded before the extension to a team that really values his defense. If traded: 4 years, $48 million, no options

21. Brandon Clarke – Memphis Grizzlies

    
    Clarke had a nice third season after a bit of a sophomore slump. He’s the Grizzlies best backup big, and that’s a key role given injury histories of the starters. If his jumper continued to show the promise of his rookie season, he’d be a more interesting extension candidate. Alas, he’s probably headed for restricted free agency next summer.
    Prediction: No extension

22. Grant Williams – Boston Celtics

    
    Boston likes to lock their draftees up when they can. Williams probably won’t be any different. He’s become a key rotation player for the Celtics and he’s one of the better stretch-4 options in the league right now. Look for an incentive-laden deal that could hit bigger if Williams keeps improving.
    Prediction: four years, $44 million with incentives to push it to $50 million, no options

23. Darius Bazley – Oklahoma City Thunder

    
    Bazley has improved over the first three years of his career, but the Thunder seem to be setting up to make a big run in 2023 free agency. Unless Bazley inks an incredibly team-friendly extension, this one will go to restricted free agency with a reasonable cap hold next summer.
    Prediction: No extension

24. Ty Jerome – Oklahoma City Thunder

    
    It’s a little surprising that Jerome made it even this far, but the Thunder had the ability to be patient after they got him from the Suns. But he won’t get extended.
    Prediction: No extension

25. Nassir Little – Portland Trail Blazers

    
    Little showed he’s a scalable player in his third season. He maintained most of his efficiency while playing a bigger role. The Blazers might try to get him on a deal like Grayson Allen or Landry Shamet got last year. But Little should bet on even more playing time in a shallow wing rotation in Portland and a bigger, better deal next summer.
    Prediction: No extension

26. Dylan Windler – Cleveland Cavaliers

    
    Windler missed his entire first year in the NBA while recovering from a leg injury. He’s been unable to find a lot of traction since then. He’s nominally a shooter, but needs more time to prove that on the NBA level.
    Prediction: No extension

27. Mfiondu Kabengele – out of the NBA

    
    Kabengele is out of the league. He never really found a home with the LA Clippers. He showed some in a callup with the Cleveland Cavaliers last year, but he’s a camp guy for now.

28. Jordan Poole – Golden State Warriors

    
    The Warriors missed out with the 28th pick a season before with Jacob Evans in 2018, but they hit the jackpot with Poole in 2019. Now, Poole is set to cash in. He’s a key player now, but also as part of that group that will bridge the Warriors veterans from their current run into whatever the future brings. We went deep on Poole here(Note: contract estimates have updated since written), and not much has changed.
    Prediction: four years, $100 million, no options

29. Keldon Johnson – San Antonio Spurs

    
    Johnson has developed into a terrific, yet under-the-radar player for the Spurs. He’s a solid defender, but a terrific inside-outside scoring forward. Under normal circumstances, Johnson should get a big, new deal. But San Antonio seems to be pivoting in a different direction after trading Dejounte Murray. That puts this one in flux.
    Prediction: four years, $80 million, no options IF traded before the extension deadline

30. Kevin Porter Jr. – Houston Rockets

    
    Porter can play. He’s got a ton of talent. But that talent comes with continued personal challenges. During this time in Houston, Porter has occasionally run afoul of the team. Given the Rockets have time as a rebuilding team, and they’ve got a ton of young talent, they’ll pass on an extension and let things play out to restricted free agency next summer.
    Prediction: No extension