Michael GinnittiJune 29, 2022


  1. The Cleveland Browns acquire QB Deshaun Watson

    If I told you a team gave up 3 first round picks, a third round pick, and a fourth round pick for a player, you’d say - wow, that’s a haul. If I then told you that the player received a $230M contract, fully guaranteed at signing, you’d say - is this baseball? If I told you that it was already known prior to that the player would be suspended for a large portion of time upon the signing of the contract, you’d say - wait, what? And then if I told you the team accepted language in the contract that forbids them from recouping money lost due to that suspension, you’d say - this must be the Browns right?

    The outcome of this trade is obviously TBD, but the circus makes it the leader in the clubhouse by a factor of ten thousand.

  2. The Denver Broncos acquire QB Russell Wilson

    In any normal offseason, this move would have led the charge through the summer. But Deshaun Watson, and the “Summer of the WR” overshadowed the transaction almost immediately after it was processed. That shouldn’t change the potential ceiling that Wilson brings to a “win-ready” roster. Denver and Wilson appear to be taking the Rams/Stafford approach, in that both will give it a year to settle in before a new contract is approached. Wilson holds 2 years, $51M through 2023.

  3. The Miami Dolphins acquire WR Tyreek Hill

    It was a toss-up between Hill and Adams as the top WR trade, but based on volume alone, Hill takes the top spot. The Chiefs acquired 5 draft picks for their star WR: A 1st, 2nd, 4th, 4th, and 6th. Factor in the 4 year, $120M extension ($72.2M guaranteed), and this adds up to a blockbuster move by the Dolphins.

  4. The Las Vegas Raiders acquire WR Davante Adams

    The Dolphins made the Raiders acquisition of Adams look paltry in hindsight. Adams joins the AFC West for a 1st, 2nd, and $65M guaranteed through 2024. The Carr/Adams connection could be a gamechanger for the Raiders, who live in one of the league’s toughest divisions, yet refuse to mail it in.

  5. The Indianapolis Colts acquire QB Matt Ryan

    This would be higher (and might be in a few months) if I felt better about the Colts young, unproven passing weapons. It feels like this offense will be about possession, and short yardage progression. With a weak division and a lot of talent, they should walk into the postseason with Ryan at the helm, who holds a 2 years, $54M guaranteed through 2023.

  6. The Cleveland Browns acquire WR Amari Cooper

    Two days before the Browns won the Watson sweepstakes, they brought over Cooper from the Cowboys for what now seems like highway robbery - a 5th round pick. Yes, he’s guaranteed $20M this year (most of which has already been converted to a signing bonus), but a healthy Cooper is a runaway WR1 for this roster, and with 3 years, $60M left on the deal, if he works out, there’s value to be had here. If not, they can walk away after 2022 with no additional cash owed. Hopefully he and Jacoby Brissett are working overtime on their chemistry.

  7. The Washington Commanders acquire QB Carson Wentz

    Wentz has been one of the most inaccurate and worst decision-making QBs over the past 3 seasons, and yet Washington had no problem trading away a conditional 2nd round pick (2023 3rd round pick becomes a 2nd if Wentz plays 70% of the snaps in 2022) to take on his $28M salary this year. If it works out, then it works out. When it doesn’t, it’ll be back to square one for Washington, and a backup role for Wentz.

  8. The Los Angeles Chargers acquire EDGE Khalil Mack

    He might not be able to handle #1 pass rush duties anymore, but a Joey Bosa + Khalil Mack attack should be one of the most dangerous in all of football. Mack has 3 years, $64M left, but there’s an out after 2022 if LAC needs it. The Bears took back a 2nd and 6th round pick to move on here.

  9. The Philadelphia Eagles acquire WR AJ Brown

    Anyone with rooting interest here hates that I made this 9th, but Brown has to be great to make this one stick. Or at the very least, he better be markedly better than Treylon Burks, the key pick given up to bring Brown over to Philly (Tennessee also gained a 2022 3rd). Burks gets $14M guaranteed over 4 years, Brown gets $57M guaranteed over 3. I love the “all-in-for-Hurts” move, but it was a home run swing when a bunt could have easily kept the inning alive.

  10. The Buffalo Bills acquire QB Case Keenum

    There were a few options to sneak into the top 10, but after losing Mitchell Trubisky to free agency, Buffalo had a big hole behind MVP favorite Josh Allen. It was widely assumed that a reunion with Tyrod Taylor or Ryan Fitzpatrick would suit well, but Buffalo took much more value in their QB2 opening, shipping a 7th round pick to rival Cleveland for a player who at times, outplayed Baker Mayfield in each of the past two seasons.

    Not only is this a good handcuff for Josh Allen - it’s a massive loss for Cleveland right now, as they turned around and signed Jacoby Brissett (to a near $5M contract), while also paying Keenum’s $1M roster bonus. Keenum’s experience not only in his 10 year career, but also with this Browns’ offense the past two seasons, would have been essential as a fill-in option for Watson’s pending suspension.

Honorable Mentions

Keith SmithJune 28, 2022

2022 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available.

In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

 

All-Star Tier

    1. James Harden – Philadelphia 76ers (unrestricted – player option)
    2. Zach LaVine – Chicago Bulls (unrestricted)
    3. Bradley Beal – Washington Wizards (unrestricted – player option)
    4. Deandre Ayton – Phoenix Suns (restricted)

 

Starter Tier

    1. Miles Bridges – Charlotte Hornets (restricted)
    2. Jalen Brunson – Dallas Mavericks (unrestricted)
    3. Tyus Jones – Memphis Grizzlies (unrestricted)
    4. Anfernee Simons – Portland Trail Blazers (restricted)
    5. Jusuf Nurkic – Portland Trail Blazers (unrestricted)
    6. Bobby Portis – Milwaukee Bucks (unrestricted – player option)
    7. P.J. Tucker – Miami Heat (unrestricted)
    8. Collin Sexton – Cleveland Cavaliers (restricted)
    9. T.J. Warren – Indiana Pacers (unrestricted)
    10. Kyle Anderson – Memphis Grizzlies (unrestricted)
    11. Gary Harris – Orlando Magic (unrestricted)
    12. Bruce Brown Jr – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted)
    13. Kevon Looney – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted)
    14. Otto Porter Jr. – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted)
    15. Ivica Zubac – LA Clippers (unrestricted)
    16. Nicolas Batum – LA Clippers (unrestricted)
    17. Nicolas Claxton – Brooklyn Nets (restricted)
    18. Isaiah Hartenstein – LA Clippers (unrestricted)
    19. Mitchell Robinson – New York Knicks (unrestricted)
    20. Montrezl Harrell – Charlotte Hornets (unrestricted)
    21. Andre Drummond – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted)

 

Rotation Tier

    1. Malik Monk – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted)
    2. Victor Oladipo – Miami Heat (unrestricted)
    3. Lonnie Walker IV – San Antonio Spurs (restricted)
    4. Donte DiVincenzo – Sacramento Kings (restricted)
    5. Gary Payton II – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted)
    6. Chris Boucher – Toronto Raptors (unrestricted)
    7. Caleb Martin – Miami Heat (restricted)
    8. Cody Martin – Charlotte Hornets (restricted)
    9. Marvin Bagley III – Detroit Pistons (restricted)
    10. Ricky Rubio – Indiana Pacers (unrestricted)
    11. Patty Mills – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted – player option)
    12. Delon Wright – Atlanta Hawks (unrestricted)
    13. Mo Bamba – Orlando Magic (restricted)
    14. Frank Jackson – Detroit Pistons (unrestricted)
    15. Dennis Schroder – Houston Rockets (unrestricted)
    16. Jevon Carter – Milwaukee Bucks (unrestricted)
    17. Goran Dragic – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted)
    18. Trey Lyles – Sacrament Kings (unrestricted – team option)
    19. Isaiah Roby – Oklahoma City Thunder (restricted – team option)
    20. Dewayne Dedmon – Miami Heat (unrestricted)
    21. JaVale McGee – Phoenix Suns (unrestricted)
    22. Robin Lopez – Orlando Magic (unrestricted)
    23. Carmelo Anthony – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted)
    24. Danuel House Jr. – Utah Jazz (unrestricted)
    25. Wesley Matthews – Milwaukee Bucks (unrestricted)

 

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

 

2022 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward Center 

Michael GinnittiJune 27, 2022

Bradley Beal (SG, WAS)

Beal opted out of a $36M player option on June 22nd, putting the pressure on the Wizards to lock him into a long-term contract, or construct a sign and trade package.

Pro: He’s a career 37% from 3, and posted his best season in 2020-21.
Con: He hasn’t played more than 60 games in a season since 2018, and shot a career worst 30% from 3 last year.

Maximum Contract with Washington
Beal is eligible for a 5 year, $247,660,000 maximum contract, including salaries of:
22-23: $42.7M
23-24: $46.1M
24-25: $49.5M
25-26: $52.9M
26-27: $56.3M

Sign & Trade or Free Agent Maximum Contract
A sign and trade, or outright free agent contract with a new team means a maximum contract of 4 years, $183,610,000.

 

James Harden (SG, PHI)

Harden has to decide on a $47.3M player option by June 29th. It’s largely expected that he’ll decline the option in favor of “some” sort of multi-year contract to remain with Philly.

Pro: His 2 80 games with Brooklyn were statistically better than many give him credit for (35% from 3, 51% from 2, 23 points/10 assists in 36 minutes).
Con: He forgot how to play basketball when he joined Philly.

Maximum Contract with Philadelphia
Harden is eligible for a 5 year, $268,853,015 maximum contract, including salaries of:
22-23: $46.5M
23-24: $50.2M
24-25: $53.9M
25-26: $57.6M
26-27: $61.4M

Sign & Trade or Free Agent Maximum Contract
A sign and trade, or outright free agent contract with a new team means a maximum contract of 4 years, $200,063,442.

 

Kyrie Irving (PG, BKN)

Irving has to decide on a $36.5M player option by June 29th, and we’ve learned to assume nothing with him. There’s a real chance Irving simply opts on, runs it back for 1 more season with KD, then controls his future thereafter. There’s a real chance he opts out, and never looks back. But the most likely outcome is probably in sync with what James Harden will do in opting out, and signing a short-term high-value contract with his current team.

Pro: Irving averaged 27.4 points per game last season - a career high. Tack on 6 assists, and 4 rebounds and he’s still one of the most valuable players in the game.
Con: When he plays.

Maximum Contract with Brooklyn
Irving is eligible for a 5 year, $247,660,000 maximum contract, including salaries of:
22-23: $42.7M
23-24: $46.1M
24-25: $49.5M
25-26: $52.9M
26-27: $56.3M

Sign & Trade or Free Agent Maximum Contract
A sign and trade, or outright free agent contract with a new team means a maximum contract of 4 years, $183,610,000.

 

Zach LaVine (SG, CHI)

LaVine has largely been identified as one of the top available players in this year’s free agent class, as the 27 year old is finishing his sophomore contract in Chicago (no option).

Pro: Over the past 4 seasons, LaVine has averaged 25 points, 5 boards, and 4 assists, while shooting nearly 40% from three.
Con: He had arthroscopic knee surgery this May, so there may be a delay in getting him up to full speed going forward.

Maximum Contract with Chicago
LaVine is eligible for a 5 year, $212,280,000 maximum contract, including salaries of:
22-23: $36.6M
23-24: $39.5M
24-25: $42.5M
25-26: $45.4M
26-27: $48.3M

Sign & Trade or Free Agent Maximum Contract
A sign and trade, or outright free agent contract with a new team means a maximum contract of 4 years, $157,380,000.

 

Jalen Brunson (PG, DAL)

The #33 overall selection from 2018 is hitting the open market on a high-note, as an increased role in 21-22 (32 MPG) saw his production rise considerably across the board. He’s a strong playmaker with good efficiency numbers both from three and inside the arc.

Pro: While the production has increased, it hasn’t risen to a level that should warrant a max contract. Something around 4 years, $100M seems about right.
Con: Potential buyer beware situation? He’s a nice player, but most likely not a franchise savior.

Maximum Contract with Dallas
Brunson is eligible for a 5 year, $176,900,000 maximum contract, including salaries of:
22-23: $30.5M
23-24: $32.9M
24-25: $35.4M
25-26: $37.8M
26-27: $40.3M

Sign & Trade or Free Agent Maximum Contract
A sign and trade, or outright free agent contract with a new team means a maximum contract of 4 years, $131,150,000.

 

Deandre Ayton (C, PHX)

Did the draft hurt or improve Ayton’s chances to find a max contract on the open market? It might not matter. Phoenix is still an excellent team, and should be highly motivated to bring the former #1 overall pick back for a few years.

Pro: A career 25% shooter from 3 finished 21-22 at 37%. His game is still rounding into form (as you might expect for a 23 year old
Con: His current team doesn’t appear ready to max out a big man who doesn’t jump off the screen as an elite superstar. Will anyone?

Maximum Contract with Phoenix
Ayton is eligible for a 5 year, $176,900,000 maximum contract, including salaries of:
22-23: $30.5M
23-24: $32.9M
24-25: $35.4M
25-26: $37.8M
26-27: $40.3M

Sign & Trade or Free Agent Maximum Contract
A sign and trade, or outright free agent contract with a new team means a maximum contract of 4 years, $131,150,000.

 

Miles Bridges (SF, CHA)

He’s gotten better every season, with 21-22 topping out at 20 points, 7 boards, 4 assists and a steal per game. He shoots 50% from the field, 80% from the line, and 35% from three. If Charlotte won’t pay him, multiple teams will offer to.

Pro: He seems to be rounding into a perfect #3 option on a great team.
Con: Despite consistent improvement, he’s not yet progressed to a “max” player, and maybe never will. Charlotte seems rightfully reluctant to overpay.

Maximum Contract with Phoenix
Bridges is eligible for a 5 year, $176,900,000 maximum contract, including salaries of:
22-23: $30.5M
23-24: $32.9M
24-25: $35.4M
25-26: $37.8M
26-27: $40.3M

Sign & Trade or Free Agent Maximum Contract
A sign and trade, or outright free agent contract with a new team means a maximum contract of 4 years, $131,150,000.

Michael GinnittiJune 26, 2022

While Aaron Judge’s next contract will dominate the baseball world in the coming months, there’s a much more complicated conversation soon coming to a MLB hot stove near you: the financial future of Angels’ SP/DH Shohei Ohtani.

The 2021 American League MVP posted 26 doubles, 46 home runs, 100 RBIs, and a 158 OPS+ in 155 games last year. Oh and by the way, he also added a 3.18 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 156 strikeouts in 130 innings pitched to go along with it.

At the time of this piece, Ohtani is on pace to finish 2022 with 27 doubles, 39 home runs, 102 RBIs, and an OPS+ in the 140s. On the mound, his rest of season projections view him as a 3.45 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, with 157 strikeouts. While the total package of 2022 may not match or exceed that of last season, it’s still one heck of a two year resume to bring to the negotiating table.

Is there a chance Ohtani’s 2021 season was a peak? It’s certainly possible. Will the almost 28 year old’s ability to stay near the top of the league on both sides of the field continue to diminish from here out? Maybe. MLB simply doesn’t have a comparable player in the modern game to compare him to. He’s walking down his own path right now, which makes deciding on, and subsequently valuing him, for the next 5-8 years, all the much more difficult.

 

The Timeline

Shohei is under contract for 2022 at a $5.5M salary, and holds another year of arbitration eligibility for 2023 - we’ll get to the latter in just a minute.

Will the Angels make the soon to be 28-year-old an offer he can’t refuse? Is Ohtani dead set on following the likes of Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, and many others into the open free agent market before signing new?

For now, free agency appears to be the plan, which then leads to another question: How long will the Angels hang on for dear life? The Nationals kept Bryce Harper until the very end, capturing a compensatory draft pick (that was later forfeited with the signing of Patrick Corbin). The Astros held onto Gerrit Cole until the very end, as did the Dodgers with Corey Seager, and the Braves with Freddie Freeman - to name a few recent scenarios.

The Red Sox famously moved on from Mookie Betts just prior to the final year of his arbitration, as did the Guardians with SS Francisco Lindor, and the Orioles with SS/3B Manny Machado

The obvious differences here? Teams with legitimate contention chances are perfectly fine keeping their stars for as long as possible, and punting on any sort of blockbuster prospect trade return. Winning cures all.

Well the Angels haven’t done a lot of winning, and the 2022 season doesn’t appear to be any different in this regard. If the wheels completely fall off again this year, and more players are shipped out in the coming weeks, will the conversation turn away from “extension value” and toward “trade value” this fall?

 

The Marketability

The global appeal is obvious. But Ohtani is a star both in Japan & in America. One year ago this week, Forbes reported that Shohei Ohtani led all active baseball players with a $6M off-field endorsement portfolio. Ohtani had locked in accounts with the likes of Fanatics, Oakley, & Topps here in the US, while also securing partnerships with Asics, JAL Airlines, and Seiko Watch internationally. With this said, his team at CAA has been vocal about how "picky" the 27 year old is with his brand and how its promoted, meaning he's for certain leaving money on the table annually.

But will this continue? Winning cures all, and a move to a franchise with big dollars, and World Series chances will only ampligy Ohtani's ability to cash in both on and off the diamond.

 

The Extra Roster Spot

As of June 19th, MLB has (finally) adopted a roster limitation rule, stating that teams can now carry a maximum of 13 pitchers on their active roster at any time. The rule was initiated to stop teams from loading up on bullpen arms down the stretch, furthering the chance to elongate games with specific matchup changes.

An “Ohtani Clause” was implemented when the rule was created, stating that players who dual as a batter/pitcher with this kind of frequency will not count against the 13 pitcher list. This allows the Angels to carry an extra arm on a regular basis (though it doesn’t appear to be winning them many more ball games).

 

The Injury Conversation

Ohtani missed a month in his 2018 rookie year due to a sprained UCL in his elbow. The setback limited him to just 10 pitching starts that year, and led to surgery in 2019 that kept him off the mound entirely that following season.

With that said, Ohtani has been reliable as an everyday hitting option, making 800 plate appearances in his first two seasons, and over 600 last year. He’s on pace for nearly 700 in 2022 barring an unexpected absence.

Sadly, elbow surgeries to starting pitchers have become nearly as commonplace as peanut butter with jelly. However, the recovery rates from these injuries have made remarkable strides, with many candidates often finding more success at the MLB level after reconstructive operation.

It would be unfair to classify Shohei as “injury prone” right now. But a discussion about how his risk for injury going forward may be greater than all other MLB players is fair, based on the usage rate his dual-position role offers.

Will teams be afraid to go as long term on this contract than they would with a traditional one position player? 

 

Finding Ohtani’s Market Value

Any previous rules used to statistically value a player’s market need to be ripped up and started anew for Ohtani. He’s not just a part time pitcher who hits most days, or a strong bat who can give a team a few innings on the mound as needed: he’s a full time position player, and a full time pitcher.

So, in order to properly evaluate Ohtani, we believe he should be assessed as each, separately and entirely.

Ohtani the Pitcher

With 2021 being his first full season on the mound (12 starts from 2018-2020), we’ll utilize statistics from 2021 & 2022 thus far for this calculation.

For comparables, we’ve included players with similar production in the two years leading up to their major paydays: Patrick Corbin, Stephen Strasburg, Trevor Bauer, & Yu Darvish. Why these pitchers specifically?

While it’s easy to assume that Ohtani’s stature in the game simply means he’s the best of the best at everything he’s doing, the statistics over the past 1.5 seasons say otherwise.Players like Gerrit Cole & Max Scherzer have recently signed contracts that live in the neighborhood of where many assume Ohtani will soon live, but statistically, they have produced far higher than what Shohei has been able to offer on the mound. These four pitchers provide a better snapshot comparison to what Ohtani the pitcher has been since 2020.

Ohtani stands ahead of the pack here in a majority of categories, with time missed & innings per start being his Achilles heel to date. Running this through the algorithm (money/stats/age) spits out a 7 year, $206M contract - for Ohtani the pitcher.

Ohtani the Hitter

Again using 2021 + current 2022 statistics, we’ll now assess Shohei Ohtani as a batter, stacking up his recent production against the likes of Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, George Springer, & recently extended Jose Ramirez - all close comps statistically speaking.

There’s a lot to like here from a total package setting, but Ohtani is behind in quite a bit of these notable categories. Harper’s two-year production probably aligns best with Shohei right now, and Ohtani gets a big bump from his ability to swipe a base every few games, but we had difficulty finding a “sweet spot” of proper comparables for the kind of player he is.

When running these metrics through the algorithm, Ohtani the Hitter projects to an 8 year, $202M contract.

 

Okay So Now What?

In most cases, our work would be done here. We have a number, we publish that number, and it becomes our “calculated projection” for said player. But it’s not that black and white with Shohei Ohtani. We’ve identified four paths these contract negotiations may take - each with a projected contract figure to boot.

#1 Agent’s Take: He’s a Dual Player - Take it or Leave It

The simplest starting point is the argument every agent in the world would make: Here’s our player, we expect him to be this forever, pay him accordingly.

He’s a $29.5M pitcher, and a $25.2M hitter, and he does both full-time, so that makes him a $54.7M baseball player. He’ll be 29 years old, and thus commands a minimum 8 year contract.

8 years, $437,600,000 ($54.7M AAV)

Crazy, right? This would be the largest total value contract in MLB history by more than $11M (Trout, $426.5M), with the highest average salary in MLB history by more than $11M (Scherzer, $43.3M).

But let’s think about it this way. Shohei Ohtani projects to strike out 239 batters per 162 games. He also projects to hit 44 home runs and steal 24 bags over those 162 games. How much would a free agent who strikes out 239 batters a year be worth to a contending team, $30M? How much would a 44 HR/24 SB free agent position player be worth to a contending team, $30M?

#2 Logic’s Take: He’s a Dual Player Now - But Not Forever

Let’s build in a little bit of logic to our “agent’s take”, by assuming that Shohei Ohtani will not be a full-time pitcher for the next 8-10 years. For purposes of this piece, we’ll project that he can maintain this type of dual player status for 5 more seasons, which in itself feels aggressive.

So now he’s a $29.5M pitcher for 5 seasons (100% of his value, and a $25.2M hitter for 8 seasons (100% of his value) which means:

8 years, $348,800,000 ($43.6M AAV)

This would be the 3rd largest total value contract in MLB history (Trout, $426.5M; Betts, $365M) and the largest average salary in MLB history (Scherzer, $43.3M).

#3 John Smoltz Take: Full-Time Now, Part-Time Later

Is there a compromised medium? Possibly. It might be incorrect to assume that 35 year old Ohtani can’t provide any production from the mound. What if his skillset was able to be utilized out of the bullpen, like John Smoltz was able to provide those great Braves teams in the twilight of his career?

So now he’s a $29.5M full-time pitcher for 5 seasons (100% of his value), a $7.3M part-time pitcher for 3 seasons (25% of his value), and a $25.2M hitter for 8 seasons (100% of his value).

8 years, $371,500,000 ($46.4M AAV)

This would be the 2nd largest total value contract in MLB history (Trout, $426.5M) and the largest average salary in MLB history (Scherzer, $43.3M).

#4 The Short & Sweet Take: Maximize the Prime

And finally, because short, high money contracts are FINALLY starting to make their way into MLB, we’ll project what a few smaller term deals could look like.

Generally the trade off to sign a player short term is to crank up the average salary. Carlos Correa probably isn’t a $35.1M shortstop in a lot of spreadsheets. But as a 3 year contract with opt-outs after each year, the Twins were comfortable going bigger on their tax just to have him for their immediate window of contention.

These types of negotiations almost always start from the player’s side, as the goal is to maximize immediate pay, with the opportunity to get back into the open market at an age that allows for it to happen again. But it doesn’t make a ton of sense to assume that for Ohtani, as the odds of him recapturing his current day value again in 3-5 years just doesn’t seem prudent. Shohei and his camp will be looking for one big swing here that encapsulates his current unicorn status, and factors in value he’ll be able to provide as a 35+ year old hitter.

Will teams be tempted to offer Shohei Ohtani an over-market-value smaller contract, especially with a short leash on his ability to pitch full-time, and the heightened risk of injury as he ages?

3 years, $180,000,000 ($60M AAV)

(From Above) How much would a free agent who strikes out 239 batters a year be worth to a contending team, $30M? How much would a 44 HR/24 SB free agent position player be worth to a contending team, $30M?

What if 3 years won’t cut it for Ohtani (it won’t). Will 5 years at a slightly higher than market value AAV get the job done?

5 years, $285,000,000 ($57M AAV)

 

Concluding Thoughts

These numbers may seem eye popping on the surface, but MLB (and all sports) are on a fast track to these price tags in the next few seasons. If the COVID pandemic taught us anything, it’s that the value of live sports to television/streaming networks is as great as ever.

NFL quarterbacks now max out at $50M per year (and climbing), NBA superstars now see over $50M per year average salaries, and top soccer/racing figures have been securing this type of money for a while now.

Max Scherzer’s free agent contract with the Mets didn’t just raise eyebrows, it raised the bar for how aggressive contending teams may have to be to secure the final one or two pieces to their championship puzzles. At the time of his signing, Gerrit Cole’s $36M per year mark was the starting pitcher ceiling. Scherzer locked in almost $7M more per year, on ? of the term.

Ohtani is the kind of player that either a) changes the immediate mindset for your team, or, b) identifies as the one big piece to push a team to the top. He’s that talented, that special, that unique. Does that mean a ridiculous overpay is required? No, but it only takes two teams to start a bidding war. Will he truly reach the numbers we’re projecting here? Obviously only time will tell, but early reports say it’s at least safe to assume he’ll be shooting to push past Max Scherzer’s $43.3M on average.

Our reservation in confidently stating that Ohtani will broach historic financial numbers is actually self-induced. Ohtani and his camp were comfortable accepting a 2 year, $8.5M contract to buyout two years of arbitration placed a confidence value on his market. This is a notion that can go both ways (an $18M qualifying offer for a $12M player now makes him an $18M player), but in Ohtani’s case it lowers his floor, which often ends up lowering the ceiling as well.

This isn’t a hard and fast rule, and certain individuals buck trends and blow through glass ceilings. Shohei Ohtani is certainly on track to be that kind of baseball player, but just how high, and for just how long, remains the question. 

Keith SmithJune 26, 2022

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Center

 

2022 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
  • Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

 

All-Star Tier

    1. Deandre Ayton – Phoenix Suns (restricted): Ayton is the best free agent big man available. He’s one of  the better young bigs to hit free agency in several years. Despite that, he seems likely to move on from the Suns this summer. Ayton is right on the verge of making his first All-Star appearance, so there should be a strong market for his serves.

 

Starter Tier

    1. Jusuf Nurkic – Portland Trail Blazers (unrestricted): Nurkic is coming off several injury-plagued seasons in a row. But when healthy, the soon-to-be 28-year-old center is a double-double lock. He’s also a good screener and passer. Look for Portland to keep Nurkic, as they retool the roster around Damian Lillard.
    2. Kevon Looney – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted): Looney was one of the few players to appear in all 82 games this season. That durability, along with his defense and rebounding, make him likely to return to the champs. Bringing back Looney will allow the Warriors to continue to take it slow with James Wiseman’s development and return from injury.
    3. Ivica Zubac – LA Clippers (unrestricted – team option): Zubac has developed into one of the better centers in the NBA. He goes under the radar due to the Clippers star power, but he’s a key player for LA. Look for the Clips to pick up his option.
    4. Nicolas Claxton – Brooklyn Nets (restricted): This is an upside bet to a large degree. Claxton has all the tools to be a good starting center, but he hasn’t put it all together yet. Given all the drama around the Nets offseason, some smart team might be able to sneak in and steal Claxton.
    5. Isaiah Hartenstein – LA Clippers (unrestricted): Hartenstein paired with Ivica Zubac to give LA 48 minutes of solid center play. It’ll cost the Clippers even more on their tax bill to keep him, but Hartenstein is worth it. He’s a good backline defender, solid finisher and there are glimmers of him expanding his shooting range too.
    6. Mitchell Robinson – New York Knicks (unrestricted): If Robinson could stay healthy, he’d be pushing Ayton at the top of this list. He’s an elite finisher and shot-blocker. The challenge is that last year was by far his healthiest season and he still missed 10 games and parts of several others. Still, Robinson can really play, and he’s only 24 years old. He’ll get a nice deal this summer.
    7. Andre Drummond – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted): Given enough minutes, Drummond is still a double-double machine. The challenge is that he’s not a threat outside of the basket area and his defense leaves a lot to be desired. He might be best as a high-end backup on a good team, like the role he played before the 76ers traded him at the trade deadline.

 

Rotation Tier

    1. Mo Bamba – Orlando Magic (restricted): Bamba is coming off easily his best season in the NBA. The challenge is that it came in a contract year. He’s probably moving out of Orlando’s crowded frontcourt and someone will take a chance on paying a talented center who can shoot and protect the rim.
    2. Dewayne Dedmon – Miami Heat (unrestricted): Dedmon got a bit exposed in the playoffs, but in the regular season he’s a good backup center. He’ll probably stick in Miami on a minimum deal to keep backing up Bam Adebayo, unless the Heat want to give that spot to Omer Yurtseven.
    3. JaVale McGee – Phoenix Suns (unrestricted): McGee was one of the best backup centers in the NBA last season. If the Suns lose Deandre Ayton, they might re-sign McGee and hand him their starting spot. If paired with a solid backup, McGee will be productive enough for that to work.
    4. Robin Lopez – Orlando Magic (unrestricted): Lopez is in a bit of a weird spot. He could be one of the best backup centers in the NBA, but he doesn’t seem to have a need to play on a contender. Lopez enjoyed playing for, and living in, Orlando this year. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him re-sign with the Magic to keep mentoring the team’s young big men.
    5. Naz Reid – Minnesota Timberwolves (restricted – team option): Reid has been solid behind Karl-Anthony Towns with the Wolves. Minnesota isn’t ready to increase their salaries to pushing the tax yet, so they’ll probably pick up their option for Reid for next season.
    6. Jalen Smith – Indiana Pacers (unrestricted): Smith is in an interesting spot. Because Phoenix declined his rookie scale option for 2022-23, the Pacers are capped at paying him the equivalent of that option amount at $4.7 million. Smith played easily his best ball with the Pacers, so Indiana would like to keep him. But if someone else offers him even the Taxpayer MLE, the Pacers might be out of luck.
    7. Damian Jones – Sacramento Kings (unrestricted): Jones is coming off his best NBA year. He’s shown signs of being a quality backup center now. Look for the Kings to try and retain him, but their frontcourt is getting a little crowded.
    8. Thomas Bryant – Washington Wizards (unrestricted): Bryant is coming off what was seen as one of the best value deals in the NBA. Had he shown more in his return from tearing his ACL in 2020, Bryant might be in line for another good contract. Now, he’s probably playing somewhere on a prove-it deal next season.
    9. DeMarcus Cousins – Denver Nuggets (unrestricted): After wandering around the NBA for a few years, Cousins seems to have found a home in Denver with Michael Malone. He’s a good backup for Nikola Jokic, because the Nuggets don’t have to change what they do on either end. Look for Cousins to return to Denver.
    10. LaMarcus Aldridge – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted): Aldridge got to return to playing and will be able to finish his career on his terms after a scary heart issue. That’s the good news. The bad new is that it looks like the end of that career is looming. Maybe a contender snaps him up for deep bench depth, but Aldridge doesn’t have much left beyond the ability to stick midrange jumpers.
    11. Bismack Biyombo – Phoenix Suns (unrestricted): Biyombo surprisingly got back to the NBA and was very productive for the Suns in a backup role. He meshed particularly well with Chris Paul. If Biyombo is back in the NBA next year, look for it to be with the Suns again.
    12. Moses Brown – Cleveland Cavaliers (restricted): Brown is still a bit of an enigma. He’s still very young and he’s enormous. Someone will take a flier on Brown and his upside, because you can’t teach size.
    13. Hassan Whiteside – Utah Jazz (unrestricted): Whiteside was the ideal backup for Rudy Gobert in many ways, because he’s plug-and-play in the Jazz system. Now, Utah will have a new coach. It’s unknown how Whiteside will fit in a new system. He could be headed for a fifth team in as many years.
    14. Dwight Howard – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted): Howard is solid enough for 10-15 minutes as a backup center. When he has to play more than that, he gets exposed. 
    15. Tristan Thompson – Chicago Bulls (unrestricted): See above. Thompson just doesn’t have the same game he had even as recently as a few years ago.
    16. Serge Ibaka – Milwaukee Bucks (unrestricted): Three in a row for the veterans who aren’t the athletes they once were. Ibaka at least has the benefit of having some shooting range to offer in a deep bench role.
    17. Mike Muscala – Oklahoma City Thunder (unrestricted – team option): The Thunder value Muscala, and rightly so. He’s not a game-changer, but he’s a solid backup. It’s likely OKC will pick up his option and bring him back for at least one more year.

 

Fringe Tier (unranked and presented in alphabetical order)

    • Bol Bol – Orlando Magic (restricted)
    • Tony Bradley – Chicago Bulls (unrestricted – player option)
    • Ed Davis – Cleveland Cavaliers (unrestricted)
    • Gorgui Dieng – Atlanta Hawks (unrestricted)
    • Bruno Fernando – Houston Rockets (restricted)
    • Luka Garza – Detroit Pistons (restricted – team option)
    • DeAndre Jordan – Philadelphia 76ers (unrestricted)
    • Nathan Knight – Minnesota Timberwolves (restricted – Two-Way)
    • Greg Monroe – Minnesota Timberwolves (unrestricted)
    • Neemias Queta – Sacramento Kings (restricted – Two-Way)

 

2022 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward Center 

Scott AllenJune 26, 2022

Signing a free agent player to a Top-5 free agent contract in the NBA is no recipe for long-term stability with the team the player signs with. Of the 35 players that were signed over the last 7 free agency periods (Top-5 signed contracts per the last 7 years), 45% of those contracts had some kind of movement, trade or waived, before the contract expired. 40% of the contracts had been traded before the contract had expired, but when looking at the period of 2015-16 through 2018-19, a four-year span, that number goes up to 75%. Moreover, a few of the contracts (Jimmy Butler, Chris Paul, Otto Porter Jr.) had been traded two times within that signed contract.

 

Movement over the last 7 years (through June 26, 2022):

  • Players traded at least once within contract: 14 (40%)
  • Players extended before the end of the contract: 5 (14%)
  • Players waived at some point before contract expires: 2 (5%)



While the last three free agency periods have a majority of the players with the teams they signed, it is already been rumored that a few players are already on the trade block:

  • Tobias Harris (PHI) has been rumored numerous times over the last 12 months
  • Kevin Durant (BKN) is now mulling his tenure with the Brooklyn Nets
  • Anthony Davis (LAL) has been rumored of recent to possibly be traded
  • John Collins (ATL) has been rumored to potentially be traded before the new league year begins
  • Duncan Robinson (MIA) has come up in reports as to what to do with him and his contract moving forward

 

If the trend from 2015-16 through 2018-19 continues into the contracts signed from 2019-20 through 2021-22 where the players having been rumored to be traded becomes a reality, we’re talking about a around a 50-75% chance that a player who signs a Top-5 contract in a free agency period is likely to be moved at some point before the contract expires. If you are a fan of any of the top signed free agents moving forward, beware that that player is likely going to get moved at some point in the future - most likely Year 3 or Year 4 of that contract based on what has transpired in the past. 

 

2015-16 

Marc Gasol

Signed with: Memphis Grizzlies

Contract Signed: 5 year, $113,211,750 (AAV: $22,642,350)

What Happened? 

  • Traded in Year 4 to Toronto

 

Kevin Love

Signed with: Cleveland Cavaliers

Contract Signed: 5 year, $113,211,750 (AAV: $22,642,350)

What Happened?

  •  Signed a 4 year $120 million extension with Cleveland in Year 4

 

Kawhi Leonard

Signed with: San Antonio

Contract Signed: 5 year, $94,343,125 (AAV: $18,868,625)

What Happened? 

  • Traded to Toronto in Year 4

 

Jimmy Butler

Signed with: Chicago Bulls

Contract Signed: 5 year, $92,339,878 (AAV: $18,467,976)

What Happened? 

  • Trade to Minnesota in Year 3 
  • Traded to Philadelphia in Year 4
  • Declined Player Option for Year 5 to become an Unrestricted Free Agent

 

DeAndre Jordan

Signed with: LA Clippers

Contract Signed: 4 year, $87,616,050 (AAV: $21,904,013)

What Happened? 

  • Declined Player Option in Year 4 to become an Unrestricted Free Agent

 

2016-17 

Mike Conley

Signed with: Memphis Grizzlies

Contract Signed: 5 year, $152,605,578 (AAV: $30,521,116)

What Happened? 

  • Traded to Utah in Year 4

 

DeMar DeRozan

Signed with: Toronto Raptors

Contract Signed: 5 year, $139,000,000 (AAV: $27,800,000)

What Happened? 

  • Trade to San Antonio in Year 3

 

Bradley Beal

Signed with: Washington Wizards

Contract Signed: 5 year, $127,171,313 (AAV: $25,434,263)

What Happened? 

  • Signed a 2 year extension with Washington going into Year 4 

 

Andre Drummond

Signed with: Detroit Pistons

Contract Signed:  5 year, $127,171,313 (AAV: $25,434,263)

What Happened? 

  • Traded to Cleveland in Year 4
  • Waived via buyout by Cleveland in Year 5

 

Nicolas Batum

Signed with: Charlotte Hornets

Contract Signed: 5 year, $120,000,000 (AAV: $24,000,000)

What Happened? 

  • Exercised Player Option in Year 5
  • Waived and stretched by Charlotte 13 days after exercising Player Option



2017-18 

Stephen Curry

Signed with: Golden State Warriors

Contract Signed: 5 year, $201,158,790 (AAV: $40,231,758)

What Happened? 

  • Signed a 4 year $215 million contract extension with Golden State going into Year 5

 

Blake Griffin

Signed with: Detroit Pistons

Contract Signed: 5 year, $171,174,820 (AAV: $34,234,964)

What Happened? 

  • Traded to Detroit in Year 1
  • Waived via buyout in Year 3

 

Gordon Hayward

Signed with: Boston Celtics

Contract Signed: 4 year, $127,829,970 (AAV: $31,957,493)

What Happened? 

  • Declined Player Option in Year 4 to become an Unrestricted Free Agent

 

Jrue Holiday

Signed with: New Orleans Pelicans

Contract Signed:  5 year, $126,000,000 (AAV: $25,200,000)

What Happened? 

  • Traded to Milwaukee in Year 4

 

Otto Porter Jr.

Signed with: Brooklyn Nets

Contract Signed: 4 year, $106,524,975 (AAV: $26,631,244)

What Happened? 

  • Traded to Chicago in Year 2
  • Traded to Orlando in Year 4

 

2018-19 

Chris Paul

Signed with: Houston Rockets

Contract Signed: 4 year, $159,730,592 (AAV: $39,932,648)

What Happened? 

  • Traded to Oklahoma City in Year 2
  • Traded to Phoenix in Year 3

 

LeBron James

Signed with: Los Angeles Lakers

Contract Signed: 4 year, $153,312,846 (AAV: $38,328,212)

What Happened? 

  • Signed a 2 year contract extension with Los Angeles going into Year 3

 

Nikola Jokic

Signed with: Denver Nuggets

Contract Signed: 5 year, $147,710,050 (AAV: $29,542,010)

What Happened? 

  • Currently with Denver Nuggets
  • Supermax extension eligible with Denver during 2022-23 offseason

 

Paul George

Signed with: Oklahoma City Thunder

Contract Signed: 4 year, $136,911,936 (AAV: $34,227,984)

What Happened? 

  • Traded with LA Clippers in Year 2

 

Aaron Gordon

Signed with: Orlando Magic

Contract Signed: 4 year $80,000,000 (AAV: $20,000,000)

What Happened? 

  • Traded to Denver in Year 3
  • Signed a 4 year contract extension going into Year 4



2019-20 

Klay Thompson

Signed with: Golden State Warriors

Contract Signed: 5 year, $189,903,600 (AAV: $37,980,720)

What Happened? 

  • Currently with Golden State

 

Tobias Harris

Signed with: Philadelphia 76ers

Contract Signed: 5 year, $180,000,000 (AAV: $36,000,000)

What Happened? 

  • Currently With Philadelphia



Khris Middleton

Signed with: Milwaukee Bucks

Contract Signed: 5 year, $177,500,000 (AAV: $35,500,000)

What Happened? 

  • Currently with Milwaukee

 

Kevin Durant

Signed with: Brooklyn Nets

Contract Signed: 4 year, $164,255,700 (AAV: $41,063,925)

What Happened? 

  • Signed a 4 year contract extension going into Year 3

 

Kristaps Porzingis

Signed with: Dallas Mavericks

Contract Signed: 5 year, $158,253,000 (AAV: $31,650,600)

What Happened? 

  • Traded to Washington in Year 3

 

2020-21 

Anthony Davis

Signed with: Los Angeles Lakers

Contract Signed: 5 year, $189,903,600 (AAV: $37,980,720)

What Happened? 

  • Currently with Los Angeles

 

Brandon Ingram

Signed with: New Orleans Pelicans

Contract Signed: 5 year, $158,253,000 (AAV: $31,650,600)

What Happened? 

  • Currently with New Orleans

 

Gordon Hayward

Signed with: Charlotte Hornets (via Sign-and-Trade with Boston)

Contract Signed: 4 year $120,000,000 (AAV: $30,000,000)

What Happened? 

  • Currently with Charlotte

 

Fred VanVleet

Signed with: Toronto Raptors

Contract Signed: 4 year $85,000,000 (AAV: $21,250,000)

What Happened? 

  • Currently with Toronto

 

Davis Bertans

Signed with: Washington Wizards

Contract Signed: 5 year, $80,000,000 (AAV: $16,000,000)

What Happened? 

  • Traded to Dallas in Year 2

 

2021-22 

Kawhi Leonard

Signed with: LA Clippers

Contract Signed: 4 year, $176,265,152 (AAV: $44,066,288)

What Happened? 

  • Currently with LA Clippers
  • Missed all of Year 1 due to season-ending injury

 

John Collins

Signed with: Atlanta Hawks

Contract Signed: 5 year, $125,000,000 (AAV: $25,000,000)

What Happened? 

  • Currently with Atlanta

 

Chris Paul

Signed with: Phoenix Suns

Contract Signed: 4 year, $120,000,000 (AAV: $30,000,000)

What Happened? 

  • Currently with Phoenix

 

Jarrett Allen

Signed with: Cleveland Cavaliers

Contract Signed: 5 year, $120,000,000 (AAV: $30,000,000)

What Happened? 

  • Currently with Cleveland

 

Duncan Robinson

Signed with: Miami Heat

Contract Signed: 5 year, $90,000,000 (AAV: $18,000,000)

What Happened? 

  • Currently with Miami
Keith SmithJune 26, 2022

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

 

2022 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
  • Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

 

All-Star Tier

None. No players classified as small forwards have consistently established themselves as All-Star level talents.

 

Starter Tier

    1. Bobby Portis – Milwaukee Bucks (unrestricted – player option): Portis is the best “available” power forward. The reason he’s only “available” is because everyone believes he’ll opt out and re-sign with the Bucks. Portis is solid as either a starter or a reserve as one of the better stretch-4 options in the league. Milwaukee will be happy to have him back.
    2. P.J. Tucker – Miami Heat (unrestricted): Tucker is opting out of his deal with the Heat to see what else is out there. He remains a very good defender and a dependable threat on corner threes. Tucker’s next deal is as much about adding a couple more years of guaranteed salary as it is securing the most money possible.
    3. Kyle Anderson – Memphis Grizzlies (unrestricted): Anderson could get caught up in the forward crunch in Memphis. The Grizzlies have a lot of players that play both forward spots, as Anderson does. If so, some other team is going to get a really productive combo-forward for their bench. He’ll be an MLE target for several contenders.
    4. Otto Porter Jr. – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted): In a very real sense, the Warriors are going to have to choose between Porter and Gary Payton II this summer. Only one of them can get the Taxpayer MLE. Despite Porter finding his game again after a couple of down years, Payton fills a bigger need for the champs. That should make Porter available for those teams looking to take Golden State down next season.
    5. Montrezl Harrell – Charlotte Hornets (unrestricted): Harrell is ideally more of a five than a four, but he primarily played the four last season in both Washington and Charlotte. His recent arrest makes his free agency a bit cloudy. Harrell’s lack of a perimeter game is also starting to squeeze his options.

 

Rotation Tier

    1. Chris Boucher – Toronto Raptors (unrestricted): How much you buy into Boucher as a player depends on if you think 2021 or 2022 was his real ceiling. Two years ago, Boucher was excellent as a stretch-4/5. He blocked shots, finished at the rim and shot well from behind the arc. Last season, that all dropped off some. Someone will pay Boucher, then it’s up to him to make that a good or bad deal.
    2. Marvin Bagley III – Detroit Pistons (restricted): Detroit will likely re-sign Bagley. This might be one of the earlier deals agreed to, as well. Then the Pistons can renounce Bagley’s large cap hold, while saving a chunk of cap space for him. He was better in Detroit than most of his Sacramento tenure, and he fits in with the young Pistons.
    3. Trey Lyles – Sacramento Kings (unrestricted – team option): The Kings should pick up Lyles’ option. He’s become a very solid stretch-4/5 and his contract is beyond reasonable at $2.6 million. This decision may give us insight into how far Sacramento has come with making sound personnel decisions.
    4. Isaiah Roby – Oklahoma City Thunder (restricted – team option): Roby is coming off an extremely productive third season for the Thunder. He averaged 10.1 points on 51.4% shooting from the field, including an incredible 44.4% from behind the arc. If that shooting is for real, Roby is going to be a steal for OKC (if they pick up their team option) or for another team (if the Thunder decline their option).
    5. Carmelo Anthony – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted): Even during his age-37 season, Anthony remained productive for the Lakers. He scored 13.3 points per game off the bench on pretty good efficiency. If Anthony wants to play a 20th season, he’ll likely do it off the Lakers bench again.
    6. Thaddeus Young – Toronto Raptors (unrestricted): Young was solid for the Raptors after they acquired him at the trade deadline. He’s got enough left to give a contender 10-15 minutes a night off the bench.
    7. Taurean Prince – Minnesota Timberwolves (unrestricted): Prince’s role was reduced, but his efficiency went way up with the Wolves last year. That’s probably a sign of what his role should be moving forward. Contenders looking for 3/4 depth could do worse than signing Prince to come off their bench.
    8. Nemanja Bjelica – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted): Bjelica won a championship playing for the veteran minimum last season. He might like to cash in on a bigger deal, but at 34 years old, it’s hard to see Bjelica getting much more. He should re-sign with the Warriors and run it back as depth option for Steve Kerr.
    9. Blake Griffin – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted): Griffin had a resurgence when he joined the Nets in 2021 after a buyout with the Pistons. By the end of last season. Griffin was out of the rotation for Brooklyn. Someone will give him another deal for the minimum and hope they can get one more productive season out Griffin.

 

Fringe Tier (unranked and presented in alphabetical order)

    • Devontae Cacok – San Antonio Spurs (restricted)
    • Vlatko Cancar – Denver Nuggets (restricted)
    • Tyler Cook – Chicago Bulls (restricted – Two-Way)
    • Wenyen Gabriel – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted – team option)
    • Udonis Haslem – Miami Heat (unrestricted)
    • Luke Kornet – Boston Celtics (unrestricted)
    • Paul Millsap – Philadelphia 76ers (unrestricted)
    • Juwan Morgan – Boston Celtics (restricted – team option)
    • Markieff Morris – Miami Hat (unrestricted)
    • Eric Paschall – Utah Jazz (restricted)
    • Jamorko Pickett – Detroit Pistons (restricted – Two-Way)
    • Moses Wright – Dallas Mavericks (restricted – Two-Way)

 

2022 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward Center 

Keith SmithJune 24, 2022

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards    |   Centers

 

2022 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

  • All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
  • Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
  • Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
  • Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

 

All-Star Tier

None. No players classified as small forwards have consistently established themselves as All-Star level talents.

 

Starter Tier

    1. Miles Bridges – Charlotte Hornets (restricted): Bridges is knocking on the door of the All-Star tier. He’s not there yet, but that won’t be enough to keep him from getting a huge new contract. The Hornets have to be careful here. Mess around too much in negotiations and Bridges could sign an offer sheet with a cap space team and really force Charlotte’s hands.
    2. T.J. Warren – Indiana Pacers (unrestricted): It’s basically been two years since we’ve seen Warren play. Since his dominating play in the bubble, Warren has appeared in just four NBA games. It’s a healthy respect for what he’s done as a scoring 3/4 that puts him this high on this list. He could be a great candidate for a contender to sign on a team-friendly bounce-back deal.
    3. Nicolas Batum – LA Clippers (unrestricted): Batum is opting out of his deal so that he can sign for more money and add a couple of years too. He’s had a career resurgence with the Clippers. Look for Batum to stay in LA, but other contenders will try hard to get him to at least listen to their pitch.
    4. Jae’Sean Tate – Houston Rockets (restricted – team option): It’s unlikely Tate makes it to free agency this year. The Rockets will very likely pick up their team option for him. They can still make him a restricted free agent in 2023, so there’s no reason for Houston to act earlier than necessary on a new deal. If he does, some smart team should craft an offer sheet for Tate, because he can really play.

 

Rotation Tier

    1. Caleb Martin – Miami Heat (restricted): Martin had a breakout season while on a Two-Way deal for most of it. He’s one of the better wing options that’s “available”. We use “available” because it’s highly likely Miami will do what they can to keep him. Only a silly offer sheet will get the Heat to blink.
    2. Cody Martin – Charlotte Hornets (restricted): Like his twin brother, Cody Martin has also come a long way in his development. He’s not quite the shooter his brother is, but he’s close. Both are two of the better 3&D options on the market. Unlike the Heat, the Hornets tend to get overly frugal and sometimes that causes them to let players slip away. Keep an eye on this Martin twin.
    3. Jalen McDaniels – Charlotte Hornets (restricted – team option): The Hornets will probably pick up this option and then deal with McDaniels’ free agency next year. The smart move would be to decline the option and keep control of his free agency via the restricted path this summer. McDaniels offers a nice blend of size and skill at either forward spot. And, yes, the Hornets once had both Martin twins and McDaniels.
    4. Danuel House Jr. – Utah Jazz (unrestricted): House had some trouble finding a landing spot after the Rockets tired of him and moved on. His antics in the bubble didn’t help House any in that respect. But he found his footing in Utah. Given the paucity of available small forward talent this summer, House could get a nice one or two-year payday.
    5. Oshae Brissett – Indiana Pacers (restricted – team option): The Pacers should pick up this option. Brissett has been a nice find for them. He always plays really hard and has shown some ability to shoot. Brissett is undersized to slide up to the four, so he’s a true small forward, which limits his options to some extent.
    6. Derrick Jones Jr. – Chicago Bulls (unrestricted): Jones really struggled after leaving Miami for Portland a couple of years ago. He got back to his around-the-rim ways to some extent in Chicago. But Jones needs to recapture that Heat magic and re-find his game if he wants more than the minimum.
    7. Andre Iguodala – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted): It’s out of respect for all Iguodala has accomplished that he even ranks this high. He’s the very definition of a part-time player now. If Iguodala plays a 19th season, it will be with the Warriors and no one else.
    8. Juan Toscano-Anderson – Golden State Warriors (restricted): Toscano-Anderson was one of Golden State’s finds when they spent a couple of years wandering the NBA wilderness. If Toscano-Anderson could only shoot it more consistently, he’d be at least five slots higher on this list. As it is, he’s probably looking at another minimum, prove-it deal.
    9. Jordan Nwora – Milwaukee Bucks (restricted): Every once and a while you just get a feeling a player could do more with a bigger opportunity. Nwora feels like one of those guys. He can really score and he’s a good rebounder for a wing. His efficiency has been all over the place, but so has his role. Call this one a hunch on a guy who could break out next year in the right situation.

 

Fringe Tier (unranked and presented in alphabetical order)

    • Isaac Bonga – Toronto Raptors (unrestricted)
    • Ignas Brazdeikis – Orlando Magic (restricted – Two-Way)
    • Justin Champagnie – Toronto Raptors (restricted – Two-Way)
    • Gary Clark – New Orleans Pelicans (restricted – Two-Way)
    • Kessler Edwards – Brooklyn Nets (restricted – team option)
    • C.J. Elleby – Portland Trail Blazers (restricted)
    • Melvin Frazier Jr. – Oklahoma City Thunder (unrestricted – Two-Way)
    • Sam Hauser – Boston Celtics (restricted – team option)
    • Malcolm Hill – Chicago Bulls (restricted – Two-Way)
    • Josh Jackson – Sacramento Kings (unrestricted)
    • Stanley Johnson – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted – team option)
    • Kevin Knox – Atlanta Hawks (restricted)
    • Arnoldas Kulboka – Charlotte Hornets (restricted – Two-Way)
    • Anthony Lamb – Houston Rockets (restricted – Two-Way)
    • Jake Layman – Minnesota Timberwolves (unrestricted)
    • Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot – Atlanta Hawks (unrestricted)
    • Yves Pons – Memphis Grizzlies (restricted – Two-Way)
    • Davon Reed – Denver Nuggets (restricted – Two-Way)
    • Matt Ryan – Boston Celtics (restricted – Two-Way)
    • Admiral Schofield – Orlando Magic (restricted – Two-Way)
    • Ishmail Wainright – Phoenix Suns (restricted)
    • Yuta Watanabe – Toronto Raptors (unrestricted)
    • Joe Wieskamp – San Antonio Spurs (restricted)
    • Robert Woodard II – San Antonio Spurs (unrestricted – Two-Way)

 

2022 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All PositionsPoint GuardsShooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Keith SmithJune 24, 2022

The 2022 NBA Draft is now behind us. There were 19 trades agreed to involving 2022 draft picks. These deals ranged from the big trades that sent Christian Wood to the Dallas Mavericks and Jerami Grant to the Portland Trail Blazers to smaller deals where draft picks were swapped.

Now that the draft has passed, we have a better idea of what this offseason landscape might look like.

In general, teams slot into one of three categories in the offseason. There are Cap Space teams, Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level teams (can use the full $10.3 million MLE) and Taxpayer Mid-Level teams (can use the “mini” $6.4 million MLE).

Here’s where each team stands after the trade deadline:

 

Cap Space Teams

  1. Detroit Pistons - $44.8 million
  2. San Antonio Spurs – $32.6 million
  3. Orlando Magic - $27.9 million
  4. Indiana Pacers - $25.6 million
  5. New York Knicks - $16.3 million

These five teams are all in line to have cap space this summer. All five seem like locks to go the cap space route. Barring something unexpected with their own free agents, these five will be in position to do the big spending in the offseason. The San Antonio Spurs bumped up this list after drafting two more shooting guards. That means the generally player-friendly Spurs will likely let Lonnie Walker IV hit the unrestricted market this summer, while also creating the second-most cap space in the league.

The Knicks are still looking to shed another salary or two to get into range to make a big offer to a point guard, likely Jalen Brunson. If they can move off one more $9-$17 million salary, New York will be major players in free agency this summer.

The Portland Trail Blazers were on this list prior to acquiring Jerami Grant at the draft. That acquisition, via the C.J. McCollum traded player exception, made it a virtual lock that Portland will operate as an over the cap team.

The Memphis Grizzlies are the lone real swing team this summer. If they were to lose Kyle Anderson and/or Tyus Jones, Memphis could pivot to having over $20 million cap space. That’s somewhat of a frightening thought for the rest of the NBA, as the Grizzlies could add to what is already a good, deep roster this summer.

 

Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

  1. Houston Rockets
  2. Memphis Grizzlies
  3. Miami Heat
  4. Minnesota Timberwolves
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder
  6. Portland Trail Blazers
  7. Sacramento Kings
  8. Toronto Raptors
  9. Washington Wizards

This group of nine teams is a mixed bag. Teams like Memphis, Miami, Minnesota and Toronto have their cores locked in. They’ll be looking to use the $10.3 million Non-Taxpayer MLE to supplement that group.

The Heat could be choosing between a combination of using some of the Non-Taxpayer MLE to re-sign Caleb Martin, using Bird Rights to re-sign Victor Oladipo and re-signing P.J. Tucker via his Non-Bird Rights. But they should be able to create just enough room under the tax apron to do two. Maybe they can squeeze in all three, if everyone takes a bit of a cut. It’ll mean filling out the roster with minimums, but that’s where most title contenders are at anyway.

The Rockets are well within range of being able to use the full MLE this offseason. Houston isn’t really one MLE signing away from contending, so this will be a targeted signing to help shepherd the young roster.

Some may be surprised to find Oklahoma City in this group instead of the cap space group. The Thunder have a major contract extension kicking in for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander next season, plus they have three first-round draft picks to sign, and they’ve got over $28 million in dead money on the books. That’s got them over the cap, despite still being early in their rebuild. OKC continues to build through the draft and through trades and may just sit on the MLE for now. They are also getting really tight on roster spots.

The Trail Blazers can re-sign Jusuf Nurkic and Anfernee Simons and probably still squeeze in a full MLE signing too. If they’re serious about pushing back towards the playoffs, they’ll need to do all three.

Then you have the factories of sadness that are Sacramento and Washington. Both have All-Star level players (assuming Bradley Beal returns to the Wizards). Both have solid role players. Yet, it never quite seems to come together for either franchise. In an offseason that will feature yet another retooling, these teams will spend the MLE on a player or players they hope will push them firmly into the playoff picture.

 

Taxpayer Mid-Level Teams

This group is so big we’re going to sub-divide them. The two categories will be “Close to the Tax” and “Over the Tax”

 

Close to the Tax

  1. Charlotte Hornets
  2. Chicago Bulls
  3. Cleveland Cavaliers
  4. New Orleans Pelicans

These four teams will be dancing around the tax line. Charlotte (Miles Bridges) and Chicago (Zach LaVine) have free agents to re-sign who are going to eat up most of their wiggle room under the tax line.

The Cavs aren’t going to re-sign Collin Sexton to anything near a max deal, but if he gets somewhere between $15 and $20 million in first-year salary, they’ll be doing the same dance as Charlotte and Chicago.

New Orleans is probably a move away from joining the teams who can use the full MLE and stay under the tax. They have 14 players under contract and are only one small salary-shedding deal from opening up full MLE space. The bigger challenge for the Pelicans is that they are getting really tight on roster spots.

 

Over the Tax

  1. Atlanta Hawks
  2. Boston Celtics
  3. Brooklyn Nets
  4. Dallas Mavericks
  5. Denver Nuggets
  6. Golden State Warriors
  7. LA Clippers
  8. Los Angeles Lakers
  9. Milwaukee Bucks
  10. Philadelphia 76ers
  11. Phoenix Suns
  12. Utah Jazz

This is potentially the largest group of tax-paying teams the NBA will have ever seen. It may not end up playing out this way, as some will shed salary or make free agent decisions that allow them to duck the tax. But as it stands, all 12 of these teams are currently over the tax, or project to be after they fill out their rosters for the 2022-23 season. That’ll have them limited to spending the $6.4 million Taxpayer MLE for help, or upgrading their rosters via trades. Since all fancy themselves as somewhere between solid playoff teams and title contenders, don’t expect to see a lot of salary-shedding from within this group.

The teams to watch are the Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns. The Sixers have put themselves in range of being able to use the Non-Taxpayer MLE. A lot depends on what happens with James Harden and his player option or a new deal. If he plays ball, the Sixers can create a little more spending power.

The Suns are solely dependent on the Deandre Ayton situation. If he leaves with nothing coming back to Phoenix, they’ll have the full MLE and a big hole to fill at center. If it’s a sign-and-trade deal, the Suns will likely be limited to using the Taxpayer MLE to fill out their depth up front.

And, of course, there’s the circus in Brooklyn. For now, we’ll plug the Nets in here and assume that everyone decides to play nice and Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant stay put. If not, the Nets could end up just about anywhere on this list. It’ll be like pressing the reset button and basically starting all over in Brooklyn.

Dan SoemannJune 24, 2022

AL West:

We haven’t made it to July yet but it’s over here. Houston is now (-1700) and 98.6% to win the AL West per FanGraphs. Continue using them as an ‘odds booster’ but also consider an Astros World Series wager. FanGraphs considers them favorites to win at 14% but they have the third best odds (+650) behind the Dodgers (+440) and Yankees (+450).

 

AL East:

With four legit playoff contenders it’s difficult to declare this division already but the Yankees keep rolling along and now hold a 12.5 game lead over the 2nd place Blue Jays. I’m still in on the Blue Jays, Rays and Red Sox as October threats but there’s no way they can climb back into the division race at this point. Same as Houston, New York is an easy add to boost odds in a parlay.

 

AL Central:

Cleveland is emerging as one of the best early season values. A hot stretch has them at (+240) when their odds were (+900) only a few weeks prior. Meanwhile, the White Sox division odds are the lowest they’ve been all season (+160) as they begin the 2nd easiest remaining schedule. I’m not overly confident any of these teams separate from the pack but I’ll buy the dip with Chicago. They were clear favorites heading into the season (-210) and could be primed to make a run if they get healthy.


NL West:
Similar to the AL Central, I expect this race to stay close all year and don’t see any of the top three teams separating in a big way. Los Angeles entered the year with what many considered one of the strongest lineups ever assembled but suddenly they have a number of questions. This is reflected with the odds as they are the lowest we’ve seen yet after starting as massive division favorites. I think the Dodgers have underperformed to this point and expect their front office to find solutions for their roster issues. Simply put, this is a bet on a 2nd half rebound and I want to invest before the odds go in the other direction permanently.

 

Wager of the Week:

HOU (-1700) + NYY (-1100) + CWS (+160) + LAD (-200)

Top