Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards    |   Centers

2022 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All-Star Tier

1. 1. James Harden – Philadelphia 76ers (unrestricted – player option): Yes, Harden’s play has slipped some, but he’s still the best player in this class. He’s still good for 25 points and 10 assists most nights. Is that worth a full five-year, max deal, given his injuries and slipping play? Probably not. But a shorter max deal with the Sixers should get it done.
   2. Zach LaVine – Chicago Bulls (unrestricted): LaVine became an All-Star, and had he stayed healthy, he may have pushed for All-NBA too. He’s one of the elite offensive guards in the NBA. After some buzz about leaving, LaVine will likely be back in Chicago on a max deal.
   3. Bradley Beal – Washington Wizards (unrestricted – player option): Beal and LaVine are really 2 and 2A. The difference is that Beal is bit older and he’s got a lengthier injury history. But when healthy, Beal is a dynamic scoring guard and a better playmaker than most realize. Much like Harden and LaVine, he’s probably going to stay home on a new max deal.

Starter Tier

1. 4. Anfernee Simons – Portland Trail Blazers (restricted): Simons broke out after C.J. McCollum was traded. That breakout has been bubbling just under the surface for a while. Some will say it was just more opportunity, but Simons maintained his efficiency as his role grew. That suggests he was simply ready for those increased opportunities to come his way. Portland will keep him as a key player in their retooling of the roster this summer.
   5. Collin Sexton – Cleveland Cavaliers (restricted): Had Sexton not missed most of last season, he might be ahead of Simons. He’s a really good and efficient scorer. Sexton has also proven he can be productive both on and off-ball. Coming off the knee injury, and his restricted status, likely keeps his value down some, but he’ll still do alright for himself in free agency.
   6. Lu Dort – Oklahoma City Thunder (restricted – team option): Dort is a terrific defender. His offensive numbers, unlike those of Simons, suggest he’s been overused in a bigger than ideal role. But he’s still the kind of guy good teams want. The working assumption was that OKC would decline their option, make him restricted and hammer out a long-term deal. That seems a bit up in the air due to 2023 cap space planning. That could mean Dort’s option is picked up and the Thunder deal with his unrestricted free agency a year from now.
   7. Gary Harris – Orlando Magic (unrestricted): Harris kind of fell off the collective radar, as he was out of site, out of mind in Orlando. The good news? Harris seems to have rediscovered his shot. He’s still a pretty rugged defender. He’ll be a help to a contender as a starting two-guard or a high-usage bench wing.
   8. Bruce Brown Jr. – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted): Brown became a key player for the Nets over the last two seasons. He’s a solid defender and he can do more offensively than most think. He’s a good passer and a solid fisher around the rim. If the 40% three-point shooting is real, Brown is worth the full Non-Taxpayer MLE and probably even more.
   9. Pat Connaughton – Milwaukee Bucks (unrestricted – player option): Connaughton has emerged as one of the more consistent wings in the NBA. He’s a terrific shooter who doesn’t need much time nor space to get his shot off. He’s equally effective as a starter or off the bench. Look for the Bucks to do what they can to keep one of their key rotation players.

Rotation Tier

1. 10. Malik Monk – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted): Monk’s career is fully back on track after a drug suspension a couple of years ago. He’s arguably the best shooter of this shooting guard group. Only his lack of size and defensive ability keeps him from being ranked higher. But if you need bench shooting, Monk is your guy.
   11. Victor Oladipo – Miami Heat (unrestricted): Oladipo has made it back from a series of knee injuries and surgeries that had him in-and-out for years. By the playoffs, Oladipo was giving Miami great minutes off the bench. He essentially rehabbed on the Heat’s dime last year. That could lead to a hometown discount of sorts to pay back Miami’s faith in him.
   12. Lonnie Walker IV – San Antonio Spurs (restricted): A year ago, Walker looked like a player on the verge of breaking out. Last season was a bit of a step back. He didn’t shoot as well, and he struggled to break through a crowded guard rotation with the Spurs. This one screams that a change of scenery and more playing time is needed. Someone may get a steal here.
   13. Donte DiVincenzo – Sacramento Kings (restricted): DiVincenzo is coming off a mostly lost year. He missed most of it with injury, and then he struggles some after being traded to the Kings. There are rumors he’s unhappy with Sacramento not playing or starting him more and keeping him from a bigger qualifying offer. That could open the door for DiVincenzo to move on.
   14. Wesley Matthews – Milwaukee Bucks (unrestricted): Matthews is kind of the epitome of a 3&D player at this point. He still defends pretty well and all he does on offense is shoot threes. He’s getting up there in age, but the Bucks probably bring him back for depth on the wing.
   15. Joe Ingles – Portland Trail Blazers (unrestricted): This one is sort of a shrug. Ingles will be 35 years old at the start of next season and probably won’t play until January or February after tearing his ACL last season. He might wait it out and pick his spot down the line, unless someone wants to pay him to rehab for half the year, and join as sort of a trade deadline “acquisition”.
   16. Austin Rivers – Denver Nuggets (unrestricted): Rivers has been solid for the Nuggets. He’s a dependable defender and he can do a little scoring and playmaking. Teams looking for combo-guard depth can do a lot worse than Rivers.
   17. Wayne Ellington – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted): This is the point where we hit the “one skill” players. Ellington is a shooter and not much more. If you need a rotation shooter on the cheap, he’s your guy.
   18. Bryn Forbes – Denver Nuggets (unrestricted): See above.19. Avery Bradley – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted): Bradley can still defend, but he doesn’t offer a whole lot else. A contender might snap him up as a fifth guard.
   19. Tomas Satoransky – Washington Wizards (unrestricted): Satoransky found his game again after re-joining Washington late in the season. But he’s reportedly headed back overseas to sign with Barcelona.
   20. Damion Lee – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted): Lee can shoot. He’s an active player on both ends. He’s one of those guys who is probably worth more to the Warriors than other teams, but on a minimum deal, you get a helpful bench shooter.
   21. Jaylen Nowell – Minnesota Timberwolves (restricted – team option): Nowell has flashed at times. He’s got a knack for scoring. The Wolves will probably pick up their option and keep hm around. Check back in next year and see if Nowell rises up the ranks when he’ll be unrestricted.
   22. Hamidou Diallo – Detroit Pistons (unrestricted – team option): Diallo never quite popped as the Pistons hoped for. They’ll probably decline his option in lieu of creating cap space. But Diallo will get another chance because he’s hyper-athletic, a good teammate and still only 24 years old.
   23. Jeremy Lamb – Sacramento Kings (unrestricted): Lamb showed he can still do some scoring. That will probably get him a shot with someone on a minimum deal.
   24. Josh Okogie – Minnesota Timberwolves (restricted): Okogie never quite broke through with the Wolves. He’s still got a nice blend of all-around skills, but Minnesota probably doesn’t issue a qualifying offer. That will give Okogie the opportunity to catch on elsewhere with a bigger role.
   25. Troy Brown Jr. – Chicago Bulls (restricted): See above. Brown is basically in the same spot as Okogie.
   26. Amir Coffey – Los Angeles Clippers (restricted): Coffey has flashed at times, but the Clippers have a pretty deep wing group with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard back next season. Maybe he sticks around on a minimum deal, but Coffey could get non-tendered and find more opportunity elsewhere.

Fringe Tier (unranked and presented in alphabetical order)

• • Kent Bazemore – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted)
  • Keljin Blevins – Portland Trail Blazers (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Jarrett Culver – Memphis Grizzlies (unrestricted)
  • Carsen Edwards – Detroit Pistons (restricted – team option)
  • Nate Hinton – Indiana Pacers (unrestricted – Two-Way)
  • Rodney Hood – Los Angeles Clippers (unrestricted)
  • Elijah Hughes – Portland Trail Blazers (restricted)
  • David Johnson – Toronto Raptors (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Mason Jones – Los Angeles Lakers (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Scottie Lewis – Charlotte Hornets (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Gabriel Lundberg – Phoenix Suns (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Skylar Mays – Atlanta Hawks (restricted)
  • Rodney McGruder – Detroit Pistons (unrestricted)
  • Ben McLemore – Portland Trail Blazers (unrestricted)
  • R.J. Nembhard – Cleveland Cavaliers (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Theo Pinson – Dallas Mavericks (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Trevelin Queen – Houston Rockets (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Jayden Scrubb – Los Angeles Clippers (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Tony Snell – New Orleans Pelicans (unrestricted)
  • Lance Stephenson – Indiana Pacers (unrestricted)
  • D.J. Stewart Jr. – San Antonio Spurs (unrestricted – Two-Way)
  • Brodric Thomas – Boston Celtics (restricted – Two-Way)
  • Matt Thomas – Chicago Bulls (restricted)
  • Quinndary Weatherspoon – Golden State Warriors (restricted – Two-Way)

2022 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

Spotrac’s Free Agent by Position Series

Point Guards   |   Shooting Guards   |   Small Forwards   |   Power Forwards   |   Centers

2022 NBA free agency is right around the corner. This isn’t considered to be a blockbuster free agent class, but there are several impact players available. In these rankings, we took a similar approach to the one many teams use when it comes to ranking available players. Each position was broken down into tiers. The tiers are:

• All-Star: These aren’t all necessarily All-Stars, but they have the ability to be an All-Star
• Starters: These players are either starters or they produce at a starter-level of impact
• Rotation: These are solid players that should be in a team’s regular season rotation
• Fringe: These are players at the end of the bench or Two-Way players largely in the G League

Players were then ranked within their tiers. All potential free agents have been ranked, including those with pending options.

All-Star Tier

1. Kyrie Irving – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted – player option): It was assumed Irving would opt out and re-sign with the Nets. That’s now in question after some recent reporting of a contract impasse between Irving and Brooklyn. He may be the top free agent who is actually available, if those reports prove to be true. UPDATE: Irving has opted into his $36.9M player option

Starter Tier

1. 2. Jalen Brunson – Dallas Mavericks (unrestricted): Brunson has proven himself to a quality starter. The question now is if he’s up to the task of leading an offense himself. If so, Brunson might be a $100 million player.
   3. Tyus Jones – Memphis Grizzlies (unrestricted): Jones is the best backup point guard in the NBA. He’s so good that Memphis didn’t miss a beat when he stepped in as a starter for Ja Morant. He’s basically a second starter-level point guard for the Grizzlies. Or, if he was to leave Memphis, a true starter on another team.
   4. Russell Westbrook – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted – player option): Westbrook is coming off his worst NBA season, but he’s still a talented player. He’s no longer an All-Star, but Westbrook could still turn in a quality starting season. It just might not happen in Los Angeles.

Rotation Tier

1. 5. Gary Payton II – Golden State Warriors (unrestricted): Payton proved himself worthy of a nice payday by helping the Warriors to another title. He’s the best defender of this group and he’s got a better offensive game than you probably realize.
   6. Ricky Rubio – Indiana Pacers (unrestricted): If Rubio was healthy, he’d rank in the Starter Tier. As it is, he’s one of the better backup options available this summer. Whoever gets Rubio just may need to wait until January to see him on the floor.
   7. Patty Mills – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted – player option): Mills is coming off another productive season. He’s one of the better reserve scoring guards available this summer, even if he’ll be 34 years old next season. The Nets would like to keep Mills, even if he opts out for a longer deal.
   8. Delon Wright – Atlanta Hawks (unrestricted): Wright’s production was down last season, but that was a function of his role vs his ability. Whoever signs him will get a high-end backup that can play both guard positions.
   9. John Wall – Houston Rockets (unrestricted – player option): Wall is going to opt in, because he won’t pass up on over $47 million. However, he may then work a buyout. How much he has left, after not playing for a year-and-a-half, remains to be seen. Look for Wall to eventually land with a contender as a backup/spot-starter. UPDATE: The Rockets will buyout Wall at around $41M
   10. Frank Jackson – Detroit Pistons (unrestricted – team option): If you believe Jackson’s shooting from 2020-21 is real, he’s a good backup. If you don’t, move on down the list. He’s also only 24 years old, so Jackson may have some untapped upside left.
   11. Dennis Schroder – Houston Rockets (unrestricted): If you need a scoring guard that can get you 15 PPG off the bench, Schroder is your guy. He’s also perfectly capable of being a spot-starter. The challenge comes if your team, or Schroder, wants/needs his role to be bigger than that.
   12. Jevon Carter – Milwaukee Bucks (unrestricted): Carter was a nice player for the Bucks. He’s one of the better defenders on this list, a better shooter than you think and he can run the offense. Carter might be a steal in free agency.
   13. Goran Dragic – Brooklyn Nets (unrestricted): Dragic is clearly slowing down at age-36. He struggles to stay in front of his man on defense, but he’s still crafty enough on offense to make it worth giving him a rotation spot.
   14. D.J. Augustin – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted): Augustin is a perfectly capable backup point guard. He can run an offense and his jumper is reliable. He’ll get overextended on defense if he plays too much, but for 10-15 minutes, he’s fine against backup units.
   15. Cory Joseph – Detroit Pistons (unrestricted – player option): Joseph will probably opt in with Detroit. He’s carved out a nice role playing as an off-ball point alongside Cade Cunningham.
   16. Raul Neto – Washington Wizards (unrestricted): Neto really struggled to shoot from deep last season, or he would have been higher on this list. As it is, you could do worse for a backup or third point guard.
   17. Kendrick Nunn – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted – player option): Nunn will opt in after missing the entirety of last season. If healthy, he’ll give the Lakers some scoring and ballhandling off the bench.
   18. Isaiah Thomas – Charlotte Hornets (unrestricted): After bouncing around from 10 Day contract to 10 Day contract, Thomas found a home in Charlotte. He’s still got some scoring and playmaking chops for a team’s bench.
   19. Lou Williams – Atlanta Hawks (unrestricted): Williams says he still wants to play, as he enters what will be his 18th NBA season at age-36. Williams can still do a little scoring, but he doesn’t offer much else.
   20. Rajon Rondo – Cleveland Cavaliers (unrestricted): Rondo is battling some off-court issues, which could keep him off a roster. If signed, he can still run an offense and make some plays as a driver.

Fringe Tier (unranked and presented in alphabetical order)

• Ryan Arcidiacono – New York Knicks (unrestricted)
• Facundo Campazzo – Denver Nuggets (restricted)
• Chris Chiozza – Golden State Warriors (restricted – Two-Way)
• Sharife Cooper – Atlanta Hawks (restricted – Two-Way)
• David Duke Jr. – Brooklyn Nets (restricted – Two-Way)
• Trent Forrest – Utah Jazz (restricted)
• Brandon Goodwin – Cleveland Cavaliers (restricted – Two-Way)
• Jared Harper – New Orleans Pelicans (restricted – Two-Way)
• Aaron Holiday – Phoenix Suns (restricted)
• Markus Howard – Denver Nuggets (restricted – Two-Way)
• Mac McClung – Los Angeles Lakers (unrestricted – Two-Way)
• Xavier Moon – LA Clippers (restricted – Two-Way)
• Elfrid Payton – Phoenix Suns (unrestricted)
• Myles Powell – Philadelphia 76ers (restricted – Two-Way)
• Lindell Wigginton – Milwaukee Bucks (restricted – Two-Way)
• Cassius Winston – Washington Wizards (restricted – Two-Way)
• McKinley Wright IV – Minnesota Timberwolves (restricted – Two-Way)
• Gabe York – Indiana Pacers (unrestricted – Two-Way)

2022 NBA Free Agent Trackers

All Positions |  Point Guards |  Shooting Guard  |  Small Forward  |  Power Forward  |  Center 

First round draft picks will be eligible to sign a rookie scale contract worth up to 120% of the determined rookie scale baseline or as low as 80% of the designated rookie scale baseline (which is very rare). 

Breakdown Details

• Year 1 of the 120% Baseline scale will represent a Cap Hold immediately upon being drafted by a team. 
• Years 1 and 2 are guaranteed upon signing.
• Years 3 and 4 are guaranteed Club Options. Club Options must be exercised or declined by Oct 31st of the year preceding (i.e. if a Club Option is in 2024-25, a team must decide on that option by Oct 31, 2023). If a team does decline either option, that value will remain as a Cap Hold for that value’s year and the player becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent.
• If Years 3 and 4 options are both exercised, a team has the option to extend a Qualifying Offer making the player a Restricted Free Agent in the offseason following Year 4. Qualifying Offer amounts can be lower based on the amount of (or lack thereof) starts those players have over the last two years of the contract.

Logistic Details

• Drafted players can be used in trades. However, their “value” in the trade would count for $0 as far as salary matching is concerned. 
• Players cannot be traded for 30 days upon signing their rookie scale contract.

Example:

A key example of the last two bulleted items is with the 2014 NBA Draft when Andrew Wiggins was drafted #1 overall by the Cleveland Cavaliers, which happened to be the year that LeBron James returned to Cleveland in Free Agency on July 12th. Andrew Wiggins had signed his rookie scale contract on July 24th and 30 days after that signing on July 23rd he was traded to Minnesota for Kevin Love as part of a three-team trade. 

Wiggins had to sign his rookie contract when he did and Cleveland had to wait the 30 days because they needed Wiggins’ first year salary to be a part of the salary matching process. Otherwise, Wiggins’ “value” to the trade would have accounted for $0 when matching all of the salaries for the salary matching rules. 

2022-23 120% of Rookie Scale Baseline

2022-23 Rookie Scale Baseline

Related Links

2022-23 NBA Draft Tracker

NBA Transactions

Of the NBA Top-100 Contract AAV (Average Annual Value) of All-Time through the 2021-22 season, 14 players have won an NBA Championship. These contracts include AAVs of $20M+ and contract lengths of 1 year through 5 years.

With the recent championship for the Golden State Warriors, Stephen Curry becomes the first $40M AAV contract with an NBA Championship in addition to becoming the first player with an AAV of $20M+ to win two championships within the same contract.

LeBron James and Kevin Durant are the other two other players to have contracts with an AAV of $20M+ and with NBA championships, but they did so under two different contract structures.

Stephen Curry

• Contract: 5 year, $201.2M
• AAV: $40.2M (Rank #11)
• Championship within contract: 2 with GSW (2017-18, 2021-22)
• Note: Championships came in the first and fifth years of the contract.

Klay Thompson

• Contract: 5 year, $189.9M
• AAV: $37.98M (Rank #12)
• Championship within contract: 1 with GSW (2021-22)
• Note: Championship came in the third year of the contract. 

Khris Middleton

• Contract: 5 year, $1177.5M
• AAV: $35.5M (Rank #11)
• Championship within contract: 1 with MIL (2020-21)
• Note: Championship came in the second year of the contract. 

Kyle Lowry

• Contract: 3 year, $100M
• AAV: $33.3M (Rank #7)
• Championship within contract: 1 with TOR (2018-19)
• Note: Championship came in the second year of the contract. 

LeBron James

• Contract: 3 year, $99.9M
• AAV: $33.2M (Rank #1)
• Championship within contract: 1 with CLE (2016-17)
• Note: Championship came in the first year of the contract. 

• Contract: 4 year $153.3M
• AAV: $38.3M (Rank #7)
• Championship within contract: 1 with LAL (2019-20)
• Note: Championship came in the second year of the contract. 

Andrew Wiggins

• Contract: 5 year, $147.7M
• AAV: $29.5M (Rank #35)
• Championship within contract: 1 with GSW (2021-22)
• Note: Championship came in the fourth year of the contract. Wiggins was acquired by Golden State via trade for D’Angelo Russell during the second year of the contract.

Kevin Durant

• Contract: 2 year, $54.3M
• AAV: $27.1M (Rank #8)
• Championship within contract: 1 with GSW (2016-17)
• Note: Championship came in the first year of the contract. Durant declined a Player Option for the 2017-18 season and then signed a new 2 year $51.25M contract with Golden State in free agency.

• Contract: 2 year, $51.25M
• AAV: $25.6M (Rank #15)
• Championship within contract: 1 with GSW (2017-18)
• Note: Championship came in the first year of the contract. Durant declined a Player Option for the 2018-19 season and then signed a new 2 year $61.5M contract with Golden State in free agency.

Anthony Davis

• Contract: 5 year, $127.2M
• AAV: $25.4M (Rank #35)
• Championship within contract: 1 with LAL (2019-20)
• Note: Championship came in the fourth year of the contract. Davis declined a Player Option for 2020-21 season and then signed a 5 year $189.9M contract with Los Angeles in free agency.

Jrue Holiday

• Contract: 5 year, $126M
• AAV: $25.2M (Rank #40)
• Championship within contract: 1 with MIL (2020-21)
• Note: Championship came in the fourth year of the contract. Milwaukee acquired Holiday from New Orleans on 11/24/20. Holiday declined a Player Option for the 2021-22 season and signed a 4 year $134.99M contract extension with Milwaukee on 4/4/21.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

• Contract: 4 year, $100M
• AAV: $25M (Rank #41)
• Championship within contract: 1 with MIL (2020-21)
• Note: Championship came in the fourth year of the contract. Antetokounmpo had signed a 5 year $228.2M contract extension with Milwaukee prior to the 2020-21 season.

Draymond Green

• Contract: 4 year, $99.7M
• AAV: $24.9M (Rank #45)
• Championship within contract: 1 with GSW (2021-22)
• Note: Championship came in the second year of the contract.

Serge Ibaka

• Contract: 3 year $65M
• AAV: $21.7M (Rank #35)
• Championship within contract: 1 with TOR (2018-19)
• Note: Championship came in the second year of the contract.

Shaquille O'Neal

• Contract: 5 year, $101M
• AAV: $20.2M (Rank #1)
• Championship within contract: 1 with MIA (2005-06)
• Note: Championship came in the first year of the contract.

Dirk Nowitzki

• Contract: 4 year, $80M
• AAV: $20M (Rank #2)
• Championship within contract: 1 with DAL (2010-11)
• Note: Championship came in the first year of the contract.

The Yankees and Astros have built up big leads in their respective divisions, while the Padres have shot past the Dodgers. 

AL West:
Another week, another big jump for the Astros division odds. They’re now (-1100) favorites, a 92% implied win percentage which is more in line with FanGraphs projection (97.2%).

AL East:
The Yankees sweep of Tampa Bay did no one in the division any favors and their lead is up to 10 games. I was admittedly skeptical entering the season but a few subtle offseason moves have paid huge dividends. They’re 31 games over .500 in June and it’s hard to imagine this team falling off a cliff, even in that difficult division.

AL Central:
The Guardians are (13-3) over in June but enter a critical stretch against the Dodgers, Twins, Red Sox and Yankees. Meanwhile, the White Sox have the easiest remaining schedule in the league. If Cleveland can weather the storm, expect this to be a three team race to the finish. 

NL West:
San Diego suddenly leads the division and the Dodgers are now without their ace Walker Buehler until at least September. LA has relied heavily on incredible starts from Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Andersen and both could see some regression in the second half. They’ll get Andrew Heaney back this weekend but I’d bet Andrew Friedman is looking to add another starter. The market hasn’t adjusted yet and our model shows the Padres as the biggest value yet this season. The division is still wide open and there's enough uncertainty with LAD that I’m willing to add some shares of San Diego where it makes sense.

MLB Divisional Parlay of the Week:  HOU (-1100) + NYY (-550) + SDP (+250)

DK Metcalf is currently holding out from the Seattle Seahawks’ mandatory offseason activities, putting himself in line for a potential $95,000+ of fines (team discretion), while he awaits a new contract.

Metcalf is entering a contract year, currently set to earn $3.986M in the final season of his rookie contract, but wants a piece of the now very large pie that is the new wide receiver market.

The #64 overall selection back in 2019 burst onto the scene, catching 58 balls for 900 yards and 7 TDs in his rookie campaign. It only got better from there. Metcalf’s 1,303 yards, 83 catches, and 10 TDs in 2020 earned him 2nd team All-Pro honors. While his numbers dipped slightly last year (75 grabs, 967 yards), the now 24 year old found the endzone 12 times.

So what next? The dynamic of the Seattle organization has obviously changed with QB Russell Wilson now in Denver, Bobby Wagner now in LA. But it’s still Pete Carroll’s team, and many of the weapons will return for the 2022 season. Should Metcalf be seeking a move to a better QB situation now? Or is the goal simply to get paid before the wheels fall off in Seattle come September, then force a trade as quickly as possible thereafter?

Let’s assume for now that it’s the latter, and that contract negotiations are well underway between Seattle GM John Schneider & Metcalf’s agent Tory Dandy. Dandy has had a busy offseason, negotiating identical stay at home deals for both Chris Godwin (TB) and Mike Williams (LAC), while also working through the trade & sign scenario for A.J. Brown. Dandy also represents Deebo Samuel, another ongoing team/player contract battle.

With this knowledge in tow, it’s reasonable to foresee a situation where a viable contract is not offered by Seattle, and A.J. Brown’s scenario becomes a reality for Metcalf, despite teams heading toward training camp in a few weeks. So what will it take for Seattle to retain their star WR?

A.J. Brown’s contract becomes the prototype. Yes, there are bigger WR deals now on the books, but Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Cooper Kupp all recently signed their third contracts, and should be placed in a separate tier when building out comparisons.

The A.J. Brown Effect

Brown signed a 4 year, $100M extension in Philadelphia, a deal that included over $24M in Year 1, and $57M practically guaranteed through the first three seasons. Brown’s previous two year production is just slightly better than Metcalfs, as were Amari Cooper, DJ Moore, and Chris Godwins. But all of these WRs deserve to be in the same conversation when it comes to contract negotiations. There’s one glaring exception though: Touchdowns. Brown, Moore, Williams and Cooper combined for an average of .44 touchdown receptions per game played over the past two seasons. Metcalf chimes in at .67, a huge number for a receiver with Tyler Lockett on the other side of the field.

Metcalf isn’t just a freak athletic running go routes. He has space creating ability, and can turn into a tight end style red zone option when the offense needs it most. It’s a trait that almost none of these other comparable receivers can boast on a consistent basis, and it’s worthy of more money at the end of the day.

Calculated Value

From a total resume standpoint, Metcalf mathematically projects to a 4 year, $88M extension. If we’re talking average annual salary (which we shouldn’t), this $22M per year places him 7th among active WRs. The $88M new money also ranks 7th. Are these reasonable numbers for Metcalf? Yes. But reasonable likely doesn’t keep him in a QB-less Seattle.

Tyler Lockett’s Contract

Is it common for teams to carry two high paid receivers respectively? Not particularly. A quick spin around the league currently shows that Carolina (Moore, Anderson), Denver (Sutton, Patrick), Las Vegas (Adams, Renfroe), LA Chargers (Williams, Allen), LA Rams (Kupp, Robinson), NY Giants (Golladay, Shepard), Tampa (Evans, Godwin, Gage) are carrying multiple receivers with a contract north of $10M per year.

Of the group, the Raiders probably become the best future comparable. We know Davante Adams went bigtime with his 5 year, $140M extension, $65M+ practically guaranteed, but LV followed that up with a 2 year, $32M deal for Hunter Renfroe this month.

Tyler Lockett is entering year two of a 5 year, $80M contract, and is pretty comfortably locked into 2 years, $25M through the 2023 season based on dead cap structure. By assessing Lockett’s deal in this manner (numbers lower than Renfroe’s extension), there should be no concern with Seattle tossing a $25M per year contract on top here - especially when factoring in that the Raiders also handed out a $65M guarantee to their starting QB this spring, and the Seahawks may not spend $5M total on all of their QBs in 2022.

Projecting Metcalf’s Next Contract

With all of this said, let’s put a little logic on top of the previously mentioned math. Is it easy enough to simply look at A.J. Brown’s contract and say “that works”? Maybe. But Brown’s contract came with draft capital attached to it via the initial trade to get him in the door. If I’m DK Metcalf’’s camp right now, there’s a surcharge to stay. We can keep the 4 years, $100M new year new money numbers for “team friendly” marketability, but the 57% practically guaranteed needs to slide up to 60, and $42M of that has to be fully locked in at signing, surpassing D.J. Moore’s $41.6M number.

4 new years, $100M new money; $60M practically guaranteed, $42M fully at signing

AL West:

The Astros division odds made a sizable shift last week but now the other shoe has dropped with more significant movement this week. Los Angeles lost 14 straight games while Houston extended its lead to 9 games and they’re now (-700) favorites, a massive jump from (-200) only a month ago. This line is increasingly hard to bet on it’s own but there’s still some value. I’m treating it as an ‘odds booster’ going forward and will continue pairing it in parlays.

NL East:

We’ve highlighted the NL Central in recent weeks and continue watching it closely. This is a two team race with a lot of line movement in recent weeks. I still believe the Mets ultimately win here but the margin of error is suddenly low. Their lead is down to 6.5 games and it looks as though Pete Alonso and Starling Marte will be added to their already lengthy injured list. Our model keeps showing Atlanta as a strong value and it’s hard to ignore considering the circumstances.

Wager of the Week:  HOU (-700) + ATL (+350)

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Our process will include analyzing real-time odds from FanDuel Sports Book, predictive odds from FanGraphs, & a little logic based on schedules, standings, injuries, etc… We’ll identify teams who are in a strong window to place a season-end bet on based on the difference between current actual and expected odds, with a nod to parlay every now and then for even more value as well. 

Interested in this stuff? We’d love to hear from you.

Summary of Transactions

The Rams have utilized all areas of general management this offseason, and all of these moves have some form of salary cap impact. We’ll detail them below.

Pending Free Agent Extensions: 2
Under Contract Extensions: 2
Signed via Free Agency: 4
Acquired via Trade: 1
Contract Restructures: 1
Lost via Trade: 1
Lost via Retirement: 1
Outright Releases: 1
Lost via Free Agency: 9

2022 SALARY CAP IMPACT

In other words, the Rams added or brought back 15 players, moved on from 3 under contract (trade, retirement, release), and by extending three notable players (Donald/Stafford/Kupp) and restructuring another (Floyd), came away with over $28M of additional cap space in 2022.

New Starters

Using the projected depth chart from Ourlads, here’s a breakdown of potential starting roles that have been replaced for the upcoming 2022 season.

WR Allen Robinson (trade) replaces Odell Beckham Jr. (free agency)/Robert Woods (trade)
OL Joe Noteboom (internal) replaces LT Andrew Whitworth (retirement, pending)
OG Logan Bruss (draft) replaces Austin Corbett (free agency)
LB Justin Hollins (internal) replaces Von Miller (free agency)
LB Bobby Wagner (free agency) replaces Troy Reeder (free agency)
P Riley Dixon (free agency) replaces Johnny Hekker (release)
KR Brandon Powell (free agency) replaces Cooper Kupp/Ben Skowronek

Pending Free Agent Extensions ($5.3M)

New contracts for a few offensive lineman before they hit the open market added $5.3M of cap to the Rams’ table this past March.

March 14th
Extended C Brian Allen 3 years, $18M with $10M guaranteed through 2023.
2022 Cap Charge: $1.8M

March 14th
Extended new LT Joe Noteboom 3 years, $40M with $25M guaranteed through 2023.
2022 Cap Charge: $3.5M

Under Contract Extensions

The Rams freed up $12.25M of cap space in restructuring/extended massive contracts with their franchise QB and defensive weapon.

March 19th
Extended QB Matthew Stafford 4 years, $160M with $130M guaranteed through 2025.
2022 Cap Charge: $13.5M ($9.5M saved)

June 6th
Extended DL Aaron Donald 3 years, $95M with $65M guaranteed through 2023.
2022 Cap Charge: $24M ($2.75M saved)

June 8th
Extended WR Cooper Kupp 3 years, $80.1M with $75M guaranteed through 2023.
2022 Cap Charge: $17.8M ($875k saved)

Trades

LA surprised many when they moved on from Robert Woods, and surprised nobody when they brought back Troy Hill. They netted $1.3M of cap with these moves.

March 19th
Traded WR Robert Woods to Tennessee, taking on an $11.9M dead cap hit.
2022 Cap Savings: $3.8M

April 30th
Acquired CB Troy Hill from the Browns on a 1 year $4.5M contract, converting $3M to bonus.
2022 Cap Charge: $2.5M

Free Agents

The Rams added 4 projected starters in free agency this spring. They combine for just $8.5M of 2022 cap this season.

March 17th
Signed WR Allen Robinson 3 years, $46.5M with $30.75M guaranteed through 2023.
2022 Cap Charge: $4.3M

March 19th
Signed KR Brandon Powell, 1 year, $1M
2022 Cap Charge: $895,000

March 31st
Signed LB Bobby Wagner 5 years, $50M with $20M guaranteed through 2024.
2022 Cap Charge: $2.5M

April 5th
Signed P Riley Dixon to a 1 year, $1M contract
2022 Cap Charge: $895,000

Releases

After a run of Pro Bowl caliber seasons, LAR moved on from their starting punter. It freed up $2M of cap space, and they went on to replace him with Riley Dixon’s $895k charge.

March 15th
Released P Johnny Hekker, taking on a $942,000 dead cap hit.
2022 Cap Savings: $2.05M

Restructures

The single contract conversion of the offseason (thus far) opened up $12M of much needed space at the start of free agency.

March 16th
Restructured LB Leonard Floyd’s contract
2022 Cap Savings: $12M

Draft Picks

The Rams have 8 players under contract from the 2022 NFL Draft, starting with pick #104.
2022 Top 51 Draft Pool: $1.25M

Retirement (assumed)

LT Andrew Whitworth retires, leaving behind a $2.16M dead cap hit for 2022, $2M for 2023.
2022 Cap Savings: $15.5M

Additional Dead Cap

In addition to the dead cap hits mentioned above, the Rams hold $680,000 of dead cap from moves made both in 2021 and this offseason thus far.
2022 Cap Charge: $680,000

Still To Come

Starting LG David Edwards, RT Rob Havenstein DT Greg Gaine, DE A’Shawn Robinson, FS Nick Scott, CB David Long and K Matt Gay are all in contract years. Do the Rams strike early on any of these extensions?

But What About 2023...

Now we're talking. Anyone who follows the business of the NFL closely knows that a move made today almost always mean more pain tomorrow. As it currently stands, the 2023 Rams have 62 players under contract with $240M of cap allocated. If we project a $218M league salary cap, this means we estimated LAR to be about $12M over right now from a Top 51 standpoint, $22M in total allocations.

Aaron Donald + Matthew Stafford + Jalen Ramsey + Leonard Floyd currently = $105M of 2023 salary cap.

The good news? All of that cap is just as flexible as the 2022 figures were. And Les Snead can wave his magic wand and do the above all over again. Rinse, Repeat, Rinse, Repeat...until they're bad.

Aaron Donald’s not only not retiring, he’s now the highest paid non-quarterback in the history of football - and then some.

The 31 year old defensive lineman had the final 3 years, $52.25M remaining on his previous contract almost entirely ripped up. The result is a 3 year, $95M contract through the 2024 season, with guarantee mechanisms in 2023, early March vesting on the 2024 compensation, and two void years for cap purposes.

The Cash Flow

Donald will see $31.5M in 2022, up significantly from the $14.25M he was set to earn this season previously. There’s another $28.5M to be made in 2023, totalling $60M across the first two seasons. In 2024, the contract offers a whopping $35M cash, $5M of which locks in March of 2023, the rest becoming fully guaranteed in March 2024. The $95M over the first three seasons of the contract puts Donald in very rare company:

There are 7 contracts with a 3 year cash flow north of $95M - all of them are quarterbacks.

1. Aaron Rodgers: $150.8M
2. Deshaun Watson, $138M
3. Dak Prescott, $126M
4. Matthew Stafford, $120M
5. Russell Wilson, $107M
6. Derek Carr, $99.9M
7. Josh Allen, $95M

Cumulative Cash Flow for Active NFL Contracts

The Average Annual Salary

Not the most useful metric available because of its inconsistencies, but for all intents, Aaron Donald is now a $31.6M per year NFL player. This ranks 12th in the entire NFL, 1st among all non-quarterbacks.

But (and it seems like there’s always a but with these NFL contracts), the $5M roster bonus allocated to 2022 was technically built into his previous contract and carried over to the new deal. However, since we’re treating this as a rip up and start over process (like we did with Aaron Rodgers), it’s $95M over 3 years year at the end of the day.

2022 NFL Average Salary Rankings

The Guarantee Structure

Aaron Donald’s new deal comes with $46.5M fully guaranteed at signing, by way of a $25M signing bonus, a $1.5M 2022 base salary, a $5M 2022 roster bonus, and a $13.5M 2023 roster bonus.

Another $18.5M fully locks in next March, via a $13.5M 2023 base salary, and a $5M roster bonus for 2024. Should he or the Rams cut loose after 2023, it’ll be a 2 year, $65M contract ($5M of which becomes a parting gift, with no offset language).

If he sticks around for 2024, another $30M becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2024, by way of a $10M base salary, and a $20M option bonus. That means every dollar of this $95M contract is either guaranteed at signing, or comes with some form of early vesting.

The Current & Potentially Future Cap Structure

Despite tacking on two void years to help the salary cap portion of this contract to spread out, the Rams will only free up $2.75M of cap space per this new pact ($12.5M of bonus proration carried over from the previous contract).

The deal currently carries cap hits of:

2022: $24M
2023: $38M
2024: $31.1M
2025: $23.3M (void year dead cap)


But this is only the beginning of this conversation. That $38M cap hit for 2023 is likely going to be a problem for the Rams, even if the NFL salary cap pushes up to $230M.

By simply restructuring the $15M roster bonus for 2023 that is already fully guaranteed, converting it to a signing bonus and tacking on yet another void year, things move around quickly.


The 2023 cap hit drops to a manageable $26M figure, but the 2024 figure rises to $34.1M, and maybe more importantly, the voidable dead cap increases to a potential $32.3M (assuming the 2024 option bonus is exercised). In other words, if this restructure (or any really) happens, and Donald finishes out this entire contract, the Rams will be taking on quite a dead cap hit in 2025 when the dust settles.

The Impact of this Contract

The player currently in line to benefit most from Aaron Donald’s massive re-up is Nick Bosa, who was already eyeing a top of the market extension in San Francisco, and now has a whole new benchmark to work from. Deals for Titans’ DL Jeffery Simmons, Broncos LB Bradley Chubb, and Packers LB Rashan Gary, to name a few, should see an uptick in value thanks to where Donald went financially.

But it’s important to keep in mind that many teams will attempt to label this as an anomaly situation, where a unicorn defensive player factored heavily into his team winning a Super Bowl, then threatened to walk off into retirement if his contractual demands weren’t met. This was the perfect scenario, despite Donald being north of 31 years old through all of this.

The player/agent side of the equation won’t see it this way however. Donald’s $31M per year is now a new mountain top that others will soon scale. It’s perfectly possible that Nick Bosa is that player in the coming weeks. No matter, today was an historic day for defensive players.