Dan SoemannMay 20, 2022

The Brewers and Astros both entered the season with some question marks. Could the Milwaukee offense support their dominant pitching staff? How would the Astros respond to the loss of Carlos Correa? Both teams have shown those uncertainties were likely over exaggerated as they currently hold small leads in their respective divisions.

Milwaukee is the NL Central favorite at (-270). These odds imply a 73% chance they win the division but FanGraphs projects their odds of winning at 88%. It’s pretty clear this division will be won by the Brewers or Cardinals.

Houston is a (-210) favorite to win the AL West which translates to a 67% implied probability. FanGraphs has their projection much higher at 81%. This division is also a two team race between the Astros and Angels.


BET MLB DIVISION WINNERS ON FANDUEL


Spotrac’s Season Long Odds

The MLB regular season is a marathon, but betting on it doesn’t have to be. Keeping a close eye on data, trends, and specific lines can allow for great value on a week to week basis. Our Season Long Odds series will focus on a variety of year end bets, including Division, Pennant, & World Series winners, MVP & Rookie of the Year candidates, and plenty more.

Our process will include analyzing real-time odds from FanDuel Sports Book, predictive odds from FanGraphs, & a little logic based on schedules, standings, injuries, etc… We’ll identify teams who are in a strong window to place a season-end bet on based on the difference between current actual and expected odds, with a nod to parlay every now and then for even more value as well. 

 

Interested in this stuff? We’d love to hear from you.

Michael GinnittiMay 18, 2022

A visual look at the numbers behind Jaire Alexander's top of the market extension in Green Bay, including an historic $30M signing bonus. View the Full Contract


Dan SoemannMay 13, 2022

Kevin Gausman Over 7.5 Strikeouts

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Drew Rasmussen Over 4.5 Strikeouts

As the Tampa Bay Lighting and Toronto Maple Leafs head north for a decisive game 7 matchup, the Blue Jays and Rays are in Florida for an important divisional series with both teams looking to keep pace with the AL East leading Yankees.

In previous seasons, the Tampa Bay offense feasted on RHP but struggled to put the ball in play against LHP. Those numbers have completely flipped this year as they own the highest K% against RHP and 2nd lowest vs LHP. On Friday, they’ll face RHP Kevin Gausman who has a 31.3 K% to start the year so I expect more of the same from both sides.

TBR K% vs LHP:   

2019:  25.7%

2020:  28.5%

2021:  25.6%

2022:  18.0%

TBR K% vs RHP:

2022:  25.8%

The opposite matchup has Drew Rasmussen battling the surprisingly inconsistent Blue Jays offense. It’s no secret Toronto is a sleeping giant but they’re currently striking out 23% against RHP. Rasmussen has flashed elite strikeout upside at times although Tampa rarely lets him go deep into games. I expect him to clear 5 strikeouts if he can go 5+ innings.

Check out the Blue Jays vs. Rays Same Game Parlays on FanDuel

Michael GinnittiMay 10, 2022

A visual look at the numbers behind Grady Jarrett's somewhat surprise extension with the Falcons, including $34M fully guaranteed at signing through 2023. View the Full Contract


Michael GinnittiMay 10, 2022

A visual look at the numbers behind A.J. Brown's extension with the Eagles, including $39M fully guaranteed at signing, & $57M+ through 2024. View the Full Contract


Michael GinnittiMay 06, 2022

The Baker Mayfield dilemma refuses to go away, and as the NFL enters the one true "quiet phase" of their season, a story about an embattled QB and a team who just fully guaranteed $230M to another one - will only gain steam.

But who really holds the leverage in this particular scenario? It's easy to look at this from a contractual angle, and assume that the $18.8M fully guaranteed to Baker Mayfield gives him all of the power here. But a recent ESPN article, and subsequent response, brings to light an item that I've been reluctant to approach with this disagreement yet - the Personal Conduct clause.

In short, the rumors are starting to swirl that this situation may be approaching a point at which the Browns may be able to build a case to prove that Mayfield's "antics" are violating the conduct clause in his contract. Should this be adjudicated, the $18.8M guarantee on the contract could potentially be voided, offering Cleveland a free out (no dead cap or cash to release him outright). It's an ugly path to take, and frankly it seems a weak case to be made from the outside looking in as well - but it's not something that should be ignored completely.

What Haven't They Just Accepted a Low-Ball Deal?
Yes, the Browns are in a financial pinch here, with the league's highest cash payroll, and a whopping $71.2M cash currently allocated to their QB room (Watson, $46M; Mayfield, $18.8M; Brissett, $4.65M; Dobbs: $1M).

But it should also be assumed that Deshaun Watson stands to miss games in 2022 due to suspension. So while paying Mayfield $1.05M per week on the active roster is costly, it may provide Cleveland the best chance to win ballgames early on. 

Furthermore - and potentially offering even sooner relevance, the NFL unfortunately sees a few prominent players lost to injury in training camps each year. As we saw with Teddy Bridgewater/Sam Bradford just a few years ago, it only takes one team in panic mode to turn an awful situation into an easy sell. 

Where Does this Wind Up?
While the right move might be to hang on to Mayfield, both for Watson protection and to wait out the best possible trade opportunity, the social media/player empowerment age will likely not allow things to hold out that long. Now that the "conduct" clause has reared its head, Baker and his people need to tread lightly with their disdain for the situation, but Odell Beckham Jr. likely paved the path for how to get off this team - both from a stirring the pot and a financial compromise standpoint. 

OBJ agreed to forfeit $3M of his guarantee in order to gain his release from Cleveland at the trade deadline last year. He went unclaimed on waivers, signed an incentive loaded deal with the Rams, and moved on with his career. 

Will Baker choose the same path? Cleveland likely has a strong handle on what other teams are willing to pay Baker for 2022, based on trade & split salary discussions they've had this winter. Is the next step to simply ask Baker to chop off what he'll likely earn elsewhere, and outright release the 27 year old QB?

Possibly, but if he wants to start football games in 2022, mending fences with Cleveland, and using Deshaun Watson's suspension as a "final showcase" to the rest of the league may actually be his best career move.

Dan SoemannMay 06, 2022

The Diamondbacks had a quiet offseason but did make one major acquisition with the addition of former Astros pitching coach Brent Strom. That move has paid immediate dividends as Arizona starters have the second lowest ERA in MLB behind only the Dodgers. You read that correctly - a rotation consisting of Madison Bumgarner, Merrill Kelly, Zach Davies, Zac Gallen and Humberto Castellanos is massively out performing all pre season expectations.

Merrill Kelly takes the mound Friday night for an appealing matchup with the Rockies. He has never been a dominant pitcher but looks great early, owning a 1.27 ERA (2.11 FIP) across 28.1 innings. Now he gets an inconsistent Colorado team who has struggled away from Coors field and more specifically strikes out a ton (24% on the road vs RHP since the start of 2021.) For those reasons  interested in the over on his strikeout total (4.5).

Scott AllenMay 04, 2022

The NWSL and NWSLPA ratified the first-ever CBA in Feb 2022 and will run through Dec 31, 2026. The details of the actual CBA can now be viewed: click here

 

Minimum Salaries

2022: $35,000

2023: $36,400

2024: $37,856

2025: $39,370

2026: $40,945 

 

Any player who had a salary in 2021 over $22,000 will have their 2022 salary increased by a designated amount based on a predetermined range. For example, $22,000-$22,999 will have their 2022 salary increased by $13,000.

Any player who has a salary lower than $22,000 in 2021 will begin the 2022 season no lower than $35,000.

 

Competition Bonuses

Awarded to each Player on applicable Team:

NWSL Shield: $5,000

NWSL Champion: $5,000

NWSL Runner-Up: $3,750

NWSL Semi-Finalist: $2,500

NWSL Quarterfinalist: $1,250

Challenge Cup Champion: $1,000 (if held)

Challenge Cup Runner-Up: $500 (if held)

 

Awarded to selected players:

Best 11 Award: $5,000

Rookie of the Year: $5,000

Most Valuable Player: $5,000

Golden Boot: $5,000

Defender of the Year: $5,000

Goalkeeper of the Year: $5,000

All-Star Bonus: $2,000

 

Michael GinnittiMay 01, 2022

The 2022 NFL draft saw nine QBs selected from pick #20 to the very last #262 slot. We breakdown the finances for each selection, and the surrounding QB situation for each of their respective teams.

Related Links:
2022 NFL Draft Tracker

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Kenny Pickett unsurprisingly joins Pittsburgh at #20 overall and will get every opportunity to win the starting role out of the gate. He projects to sign a fully guaranteed 4 year, $14M contract in the coming weeks.

Pittsburgh signed Mitchell Trubisky to a 2 year, $14.285M this past March, and for all intents, he’s projected to be the Week 1 starter. The contract suggests a slightly overpaid backup QB however, with $6.285M of cash this year, and $8M non-guaranteed for 2023.

Mason Rudolph has been with the Steelers since 2018, and enters 2022 on a non-guaranteed $3M salary. There’s a chance Pittsburgh moves on here, freeing up that $3M of cap and cash.

Pittsburgh added Chris Oladokun with pick 241, a slot that comes with a projected 4 year, $3.7M contract, only $90,000 of which is guaranteed. He’s a camp body with a chance to make the practice squad.

 

Atlanta Falcons

Desmond Ridder was the second QB selected, going to Atlanta at #74 overall. The slot comes with a projected 4 year $5.3M deal with a $1.1M guarantee. Ridder will likely hold a clipboard for 2022, learning the ropes and the offensive system from Atlanta’s other new QB1, Marcus Mariota.

Atlanta signed Marcus Mariota away from Las Vegas this past March, to the tune of a 2 year, $18.75M contract. The deal includes $6.75M guaranteed, all in 2022, putting him on a 1 year showcase - with his likely replacement Ridder, now positioned behind him.

Felipe Franks was an undrafted signing last May, and should find himself on the practice squad for the 2022 campaign.

 

Tennessee Titans

If you had Malik Willis dropping deep into the 3rd round to the Titans on your board, you made a lucky guess. Most evaluators say Willis has the highest ceiling of this new QB group, and he’ll have all of 2022 to dig into Tennessee’s system, and work alongside Ryan Tannehill. The #86 slot comes with a projected 4 year, $5.1M contract, including $921,000 guaranteed.

Ryan Tannehill may be the next big name to leave Tennessee, following the release of WR Julio Jones, and trade of WR A.J. Brown in the past few weeks. Barring a trade, he’ll get the 2022 campaign to further his future case, but his 2 year, $56M contract offers no guarantees after this season, and Tennessee can free up $17.8M of cap to move on next March.

Logan Woodside latched on with Tennessee back in 2019, and has served in the backup role ever since. The selection of Willis puts his roster spot in jeopardy, though it’s perfectly possible that the Titans roster 3 QBs, or try to shelve Woodside on the practice squad. His 1 year, $895,000 contract is non-guaranteed.

 

Carolina Panthers

It wasn’t Malik Willis at #6. It wasn’t Baker Mayfield via trade. It wasn’t anything we expected. It was Matt Corral at the back end of the 3rd round. The #94 slot comes with a projected 4 year, $5M contract, $875,000 guaranteed, offering a pile of value if he can find his way onto the field for the Panthers.

Sam Darnold still projected to be the Week 1 starter for Carolina, as his fully guaranteed $18.8M (and the draft compensation the Panthers gave up to acquire him) make him a difficult player to move on from. Barring a resurgent season, Darnold is now on a 1-and-done pattern.

Phillip Walker joined the Panthers back in 2020, and has 9 games under his belt, including 2 starts. Though his 1 year, $895,000 contract is non-guaranteed, Carolina may be poised to keep all three of these QBs as their future with this position remains unsettled.

 

New England Patriots

The Patriots raised a few eyebrows with a 4th round selection of Bailey Zappe, one year after taking Mac Jones to be their next QB1 of the future. But all of the analysis leans to Zappe being a perfect complement to Jones for the next few years, with similar pocket presence, patience, and touch in the passing game. He’s likely been drafted to be the QB2 of their future, with Brian Hoyer on a short deal, and Stidham likely falling off of the roster. Zappe’s #137 slot comes with a projected 4 year, $4.3M contract, $650,000 guaranteed.

Mac Jones enters year 2 of a fully guaranteed $15.5M contract, with a 5th year option that keeps him under team control through 2025. His play leveled off a bit as the 2021 year progressed, but he appears to be the right player to develop in the Bill Belichick system.

Brian Hoyer was signed back to New England on a 2 year, $4M contract that includes $1.4M fully guaranteed in 2023. The 36-year-old’s roster spot will be as much about leading the QB room as it will be about acting as a potential veteran presence on the field as needed.

The Jarrett Stidham project appears to be nearing the finish line. The Patriots can free up $965,000 of cash/cap space by moving on from the final year of his rookie contract.

 

Washington Commanders

Washington brought in Sam Howell with the #144 overall selection this weekend, and will soon lock him into an estimated 4 year, $4M contract, $360,000 guaranteed. It’s a low-risk financial move, giving the Commanders an outside chance of grooming Howell into an NFL-ready product come 2023 or so.

Carson Wentz and his $28M+ salary were acquired from Indy this March, putting him in line to start for his 3rd team in 3 years. With no other viable starting options currently on the roster, it appears that Washington will be giving Wentz a chance to win this job for the long term. His contract carries 3 years, $81.705M remaining, and $9M of his 2023 compensation locks in on the 3rd league day of 2023.

Taylor Heinicke was bumped back to QB2 per the acquisition of Wentz, and his 1 year, $3.1M contract aligns with that role. There’s a good chance he’s competing for a starting job elsewhere in 2023.

 

Miami Dolphins

Skylar Thompson joins Miami at the #247 pick, a slot that carries a projected 4 year, $3.7M contract, $82,000 guaranteed. Thompson overachieved at Kansas State, and shows a lot of NFL-ready ability, but he’s almost certainly a practice squad candidate on this beefed up Miami roster.

Tua Tagovailoa enters the all-important year three of a rookie contract that now includes 2 years, $8M + a 5th year option remaining on it. With plenty of new toys and an upgraded offensive line, it’s a no-excuse situation for the 24 year old, especially as the Dolphins added Teddy Bridgewater to compete this summer.

Teddy Bridgewater signed a 1 year, $6.5M contract to join Miami this past March, and while all signs point to Tua keeping the QB1 reins out of the gate, it stands to reason that the Dolphins can keep him on a short leash this season, with Bridgewater certainly capable of stepping into a starting role at a moment’s notice.

Chris Streveler spent 2021 on the Ravens’ practice squad, and his $895,000 salary for 2022 is non-guaranteed in Miami. He’s a camp body until he’s not.

 

San Francisco 49ers

Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, projects to a 4 year, $3.7M contract, including $86,000 guaranteed. He joins a complicated QB situation (at least on the surface), with Trey Lance supposedly poised to take over the reins, and Jimmy Garoppolo too injured to trade currently.

Trey Lance enters year two of a rookie contract that now has 3 years, $11.28M fully guaranteed, plus a 5th-year option remaining on it. For all intents and purposes, he’s the QB1 entering camp, though Jimmy Garoppolo’s future, and Lance’s ability to settle into the role, all appear to be question marks as of now.

Jimmy Garoppolo enters the final year of his contract, with a chance to add $25.6M to his career earnings. An injury to his throwing shoulder kicked in a $7.5M guarantee on his 2022 salary, putting his ability to be moved on hold, either via trade or outright release. With Nate Sudfeld and now Brock Purdy on the roster, it appears as though the Niners’ plan is still to move on from Jimmy once he’s healthy, but stranger things have happened.

Nate Sudfeld signed a 1 year, $2M fully guaranteed contract to join San Francisco back in March, and projects to be the QB2 once Jimmy Garoppolo is moved on from.

Dan SoemannApril 29, 2022

Cincinnati currently owns the worst record in MLB and Joey Votto has started ice cold but they head to Colorado for a weekend series with the Rockies and it’s a prime spot to get the offense going. The Reds lineup is uninspiring but they have some sneaky power throughout which could surface at notoriously hitter friendly Coors Field. Votto has a career .232 ISO against RHP and posted a .355 ISO in 2021 (4th in MLB). The Reds will face righty Antonio Senzatela on Friday and I like Votto to pop his first HR(s) of the season.

To Hit a Home Run:  Joey Votto (+360)
To Hit 2+ Home Runs:  Joey Votto (+3500)

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