For the first time the MLS published a list of General Allocation Money (GAM) that each team will have available for the 2025 season.

Here is a club list as of December 10th:

Full report: view here

Throughout the season general managers and coaches make decisions based on the information they currently have and what they think they need to have a successful season, but here’s a look at some deals that didn’t pan out for teams (in chronological order):

Didn’t end up panning out for: Utah. Gray only had 2 minutes played in 2 matches, Tagliaferri 267 minutes in 6 matches (4 starts) compared to North Carolina who got Expansion Draft protection and $30k cash back. 

Didn’t end up panning out for: San Diego. Enge only played in 90 minutes and had one start for the Wave in 2024 after San Diego went through hoops to re-acquire her following Bay FC picking her in the 2024 Expansion Draft. She was released by the team in August to pursue opportunities abroad. 

Didn’t end up panning out for: Louisville. This one is just in here because there is no 2025 draft, so Racing didn’t actually receive anything for Beall. 

Didn’t end up panning out for: Angel City. Although Garziano joined Angel City during preseason, she did not sign with the club for 2024.

Didn’t end up panning out for: Houston. They never utilized the 2024 international spot (they ended the season with 3 unused spots–granted part of this was that teams didn’t know yet that the INTL spots would be expanded to seven by the league), CeCe Kizer only played in five matches and 216 minutes for the Dash. In February, they extended her contract from ending in 2024 to 2025 (with likely new salary terms) and September 5th the Dash announced the mutual termination of her contract following which Kizer signed with Gotham. 

Didn’t end up panning out for: Angel City. With that much allocation money in play, normally a player would have more of an impact – Bright was coming off a rookie season where she was up for Rookie of the Year, playing in 1379 minutes over 22 matches and scoring 6 goals. She joined an LA-based club with a lot of forward depth and only scored 1 goal in her 679 minutes over 21 matches. 

Didn’t end up panning out for: Portland. It’s easy to see some of the thought process behind acquiring Alvarado from Houston in that Portland was struggling in the beginning of the season, not finding a win in the first four matches of the season with Shelby Hogan between the posts. Earlier in the day before Portland took on Houston on matchday five, the trade was announced, and Portland started a six game winning streak that cemented Hogan in as the starting goalkeeper. Alvarado didn’t play a single regular season minute for the Thorns ahead of being waived on August 16th to be able to pursue opportunities abroad. 

Kirk Cousins move to the bench lights a fire under what could be a fascinating offseason for the underachieving Atlanta Falcons. We’ll detail a few options for the Cousins contract in the coming months:

Kirk Cousins Remaining Contract

As it currently stands, Cousins carries the following compensation through the 2027 season:

2025: $27.5M (fully guaranteed)
2026: $45M ($10M guarantees March 16th, 2025)
2027: $45M ($10M guarantees March 2027)

Thanks to a $50M signing bonus this past March, the Falcons carry $37.5M of bonus dead cap in 2025 (¾ of the $12.5M per year bonus proration). This figure will remain with Atlanta regardless of the outcome going forward.

Atlanta Releases Kirk Cousins

Before March 16th, 2025
Dead Cap: $65M ($27.5M of which is cash)

Before March 16th as a Post 6/1 Designation
$40M cap hit stays on the books through June 1st, then:
2025 Dead Cap: $40M ($27.5M of which is cash)
2026 Dead Cap: $25M

Between March 16th - June 1st
Dead Cap: $75M ($37.5M of which is cash)

After June 1st, 2025
2025 Dead Cap: $50M ($37.5M of which is cash)
2026 Dead Cap: $25M

Atlanta Cap Converts, then Releases Kirk Cousins

If a trade partner doesn’t surface, the Falcons can process a salary cap conversion on Cousins’ contract before releasing him.

By converting $26.25M of 2025 salary into a signing bonus, Atlanta can lower Cousins’ cap hit next season down to $19M (it’s currently $40M). Then, they can designate Cousins a Post June 1st release before March 16th (when that extra $10M kicks in), carry his $19M cap hit into June, then take on dead cap hits of:

2025: $19M
2026: $45.9M

Atlanta Trades Kirk Cousins

March 16th remains an important date as it triggers the full guarantee of $10M in 2026 compensation. It should also be noted that Atlanta can and probably will retain a portion of guaranteed salary to help facilitate a trade, though that would push the Falcons’ 2025 dead cap hit north of $40M.

Before June 1st
Falcons Dead Cap
2025: $37.5M

New Team Acquires
2025: $27.5M (fully guaranteed)
2026: $45M ($10M guarantees March 16th)
2027: $45M ($10M guarantees March 2027)

After June 1st
Falcons Dead Cap
2025: $12.5M
2026: $25M

New Team Acquires
2025: $27.5M (fully guaranteed)
2026: $45M ($10M guaranteed)
2027: $45M ($10M guarantees March 2027)

Kirk Cousins Retires

With $27.5M of fully guaranteed salary (+ $10M more set to lock in), it stands to reason that Cousins would stick out another NFL season. However, the 36-year-old has already accrued over $294M in career earnings through 2024, so money is only a part of the story here.

Hypothetically speaking though if a decision to retire is made, Atlanta would still be on the hook for the $37.5M in signing bonus proration, UNLESS, the Falcons work to recoup some of that signing bonus per his retirement (Spoiler: The team isn’t going to arbitrate to recoup money from a player they no longer want on their roster, and certainly don’t want to be paying another $37.5M salary to going forward).

The first official trade of the 2024-25 NBA trade season wasn’t a big one, but it was a rare December 15th deal. The Indiana Pacers filled a need in their frontcourt, while the Miami Heat created a little more flexibility around the second apron.

Here are the particulars:

Indiana Pacers acquire: Thomas Bryant

Miami Heat acquire: Right to swap 2031 second-round picks with Indiana

Let’s dive in!

Indiana Pacers

Incoming salary: $2.1 million in 2024-25

• Thomas Bryant (C, one year, $2.1 million)

Outgoing salary: None

Indiana looked like they had really good depth behind Myles Turner to open the season. Isaiah Jackson has proven to be a solid backup, while James Wiseman was signed as a flyer for additional depth. Unfortunately, within about a week of each other, both Jackson and Wiseman suffered torn Achilles’ tendons. That has both backup centers sidelined for the season.

Now, the Pacers are turning to veteran Thomas Bryant to fill some backup minutes. It’s a homecoming for Bryant, who played his college ball at Indiana University.

Bryant hasn’t played much over the last two seasons, with 48 total appearances for the Miami Heat. In previous stops with the Los Angeles Lakers (twice), the Washington Wizards and Denver Nuggets, Bryant has proven to be a valuable offensive big. The 6-foot-10 center can step out and shoot it some, while being a solid finisher inside. Bryant has also been a dependable rebounder throughout his career.

One quirk of this deal: Because Bryant was traded while on a one-year deal, he’ll lose his Early Bird rights in this trade. When a player is traded while on a one-year deal, they lose their Bird or Early Bird rights. This is why those players can qualify for an implied no-trade clause, so that they don’t unilaterally lose those free agent rights if they’re traded. In Bryant’s case, he waived his right to block a trade. And, given he’s veteran minimum player, this wasn’t all that likely to matter anyway.

As far as the pick goes, it’s an extremely minor cost for the Pacers to get a little bit of frontcourt depth. If Bryant can help Indiana stabilize things behind Turner, a second-round swap will be well worth it.

Miami Heat

Incoming salary: None

Outgoing salary: $2.1 million in 2024-25

• Thomas Bryant (C, one year, $2.1 million)

Bryant wasn’t in the Heat rotation. Even when Miami was down bodies in their frontcourt behind Bam Adebayo, Erik Spoelstra wasn’t going to Bryant. That made him a very tradable player.

For the Heat, this trade was all about creating a more flexibility under the second apron. Miami isn’t hard-capped at the second apron, but they were closer to that marker than they really wanted to be. Before this trade, the Heat had about $1.6 million in space under the second apron. Now, the Heat have more than $3.7 million in wiggle room under the second apron.

Given Miami has been involved in trade rumors involving Jimmy Butler, who carries a $48.8 million salary, the Heat would likely be taking back quite of bit of salary in a trade. Now, it’s fair to note that Miami may not make a trade involving Butler at all. But if they do, they’ll bring back a good amount of salary in return.

The important thing: In a Butler trade or another deal, the Heat now have more clearance under the apron than they had before getting off Bryant’s salary.

One last note: the Heat are now down to 13 players signed to standard contracts. Miami will have 14 days to get back into roster compliance by signing a 14th player to a standard deal. The Heat can also go up to 28 total days with less than 14 players on standard deals. So, they can game the system a bit by signing and waiving a player, until they max out their 28 total days.

The Golden State Warriors and the Brooklyn Nets got the 2024-25 trade season off to a running start with a rare December 15th deal. Both sides accomplished goals in the first major deal of the season.

Here are the particulars:

Golden State Warriors acquire: Dennis Schroder, 2025 Heat second-round pick (if 38-59)

Brooklyn Nets acquire: De’Anthony Melton, Reece Beekman, 2026 Hawks second-round pick, 2028 Hawks second-round pick, 2029 Warriors second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Golden State Warriors

Incoming salary: $13.0 million in 2024-25

• Dennis Schroder (PG, one year, $13.0 million)

Outgoing salary: $12.8 million in 2024-25

• De’Anthony Melton (PG/SG, one year, $12.8 million)

The Warriors needed more on-ball creation ability. When Stephen Curry sits, everything falls to Draymond Green or inexperienced playmakers to make things happen for the Golden State offense. Adding Schroder should fix that.

Reports are that the Warriors are considering starting Schroder alongside Curry in the backcourt. That’s fine, but the real value of adding Schroder will come in the non-Curry minutes. Now, Steve Kerr can confidently put the ball in a playmaker’s hands for all 48 minutes. That’s should be huge for helping to open up the game for other players. That includes Brandin Podziemski, who has really struggled when tasked with running the offense in his second season.

Salary-wise, this doesn’t change much for Golden State. They went from just over $530,000 from their first-apron hard cap to about $330,000 away from that marker. Both Schroder and Melton are on expiring deals, so there’s no long-term change either. One nice benefit with acquiring Schroder: He has Early Bird rights after this season. That could give the Warriors a decent leg up on re-signing him.

Golden State also gave up Reece Beekman in his deal. Beekman became part of the exclusive club of two-way players to get traded. The Warriors being so tight to the first-apron hard cap means they still can’t fill their 15th standard roster spot, but that has no bearing on filling their open two-way spot. Expect Golden State to sign a replacement for Beekman shortly.

The Warriors are a bit light on second-round picks after this deal. That made it important to get the protected Heat second-rounder in the trade. That’s at least something Golden State can offer up in a future deal.

Brooklyn Nets

Incoming salary: $12.8 million in 2024-25

• De’Anthony Melton (PG/SG, one year, $12.8 million)

Outgoing salary: $13.0 million in 2024-25

• Dennis Schroder (PG, one year, $13.0 million)

This trade was about two things for the Nets. First, they went plus-two in second-round picks. The two Hawks picks (2026 and 2028) and the Warriors pick (2029) are all far enough out that it’s impossible to know where they’ll land. If nothing else, Sean Marks has added to what is becoming a pretty impressive stash of future draft capital.

But mostly, this trade was about moving toward development, or pivoting toward ping pong balls, or straight-up tanking, if you will. The Nets didn’t get better in this trade. Dennis Schroder was arguably the Nets best player this season, especially when you factor in availability. De’Anthony Melton is out for the season. So, not only did Brooklyn not get better, they instead got significantly worse.

And that was the whole idea.

Entering play on December 15, the Nets had the ninth-worst record in the NBA. For a team that reacquired their own 2025 first-round pick ahead of the season, that’s not really where Brooklyn wants to be.

Here’s the good news: Brooklyn is only four losses behind the Jazz and Raptors to fall (jump?) into a top-three pick. Why is that the target range? The top three picks have the flattened odds in the draft lottery. In a loaded draft, the Nets want to have as high of a pick as possible. Getting up to the top-three group would give them the best chance at that.

By moving Schroder now, Marks may not have gotten the absolute most value for the veteran point guard as he may have down the line. It’s possible that by waiting, the Nets could have driven a bidding war for Schroder, especially if teams became desperate for backcourt help.

However, Marks made the right call to make a deal now, even if he might have gotten something a little better down the line. The Nets need to start losing, and start losing at a pretty good clip, right now if they’re going to maximize their lottery odds. By trading Schroder, Brooklyn becomes a worse team, which will increase the chances that they lose more games. Waiting nearly two months to make a deal might have come after a handful more victories than makes sense for the Nets.

On the court, Brooklyn is really light on ballhandling and playmaking. Ben Simmons will likely see increased on-ball reps. That could have a side effect of improving Simmons’ play and his confidence. Beyond Simmons, Shake Milton and Keon Johnson are the only healthy playmakers on the roster right now. Cam Thomas can do some ballhandling, but he’s a score-first guy and he’s working his way back from a hamstring injury.

The above is why the Nets acquired Reece Beekman in the deal. It’s rare for a two-way player to be traded, and even more rare for one to be traded to fill a need, but here we are. Beekman faced an uphill battled to find NBA minutes on a deep Warriors squad. With the Nets thin backcourt, Beekman could be a rotation player right away.

In nine G League games, Beekman has looked pretty solid. The 6-foot-3 point guard has averaged 18.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 7.2 assists and 2.8 steals per game. Beekman has also shot 51.5% from the field and 34.5% from behind the arc. As a four-year college starter, Beekman also comes in with more experience than your average rookie guard. Expect to see him getting some rotation minutes as the Nets sort out their backcourt mix.

Salary-wise, there’s no change for Brooklyn beyond this season. Schroder was on an expiring contract, as is Melton. Something to keep an eye on: The Nets can flip Melton in another trade, and by virtue of acquiring him prior to December 16, they can also aggregate Melton’s $12.8 million salary in a subsequent deal.

Sean Marks is just getting started. He’s got several other veteran players who could (and should!) be on the move before the trade deadline. That’ll mean some really ugly basketball in Brooklyn to close this season, but if the Nets land a top-five draft pick, it’ll all have been worth it.

While reports, and denials of some of those reports, are flying all over the place, one thing is clear: Jimmy Butler is no longer a lock to stay with the Miami Heat. After being seen as a perfect match of player and team for several years, it now looks like a Butler-Heat divorce is inevitable.

How did we get here?

It’s been bubbling for a bit now. Butler has been somewhat injury-prone during his run with the Heat. But he was always there when Miami needed him most, leading the team to NBA Finals runs in 2020 and 2023. That was true until Butler missed last season’s playoffs and the Heat were bounced in five mostly non-competitive games against the Boston Celtics.

Following that series loss, Butler said the Celtics would have been “at home” if he had played. Butler also said that if he was on the Philadelphia 76ers, they would have beaten the New York Knicks. Heat president Pat Riley didn’t want to hear it from his star player.

“For him to say that, I thought ‘Is that Jimmy trolling or is that Jimmy serious?’” Riley said in a postseason press conference. “If you're not on the court playing against Boston or on the court playing against the New York Knicks, you should keep your mouth shut and your criticism of those teams.”

Riley then challenged Butler to figure out what he wants to be for the Heat moving forward, including stating that his star player has to play more. But despite all of that, when pressed if he’d consider trading Butler, Riley kept it simple by saying, “No.”

Flashing forward a bit, Butler has wanted an extension from Miami. He’s recently said that money isn’t the most important thing, but Butler also isn’t likely to take any kind of massive team-friendly discount either. That leaves some room between Butler’s $52.4 million player option for 2025-26 and whatever his starting point would be in an extension.

However, the Heat haven’t been willing to budge much in extension talks. It doesn’t seem to be a case where Miami is lowballing Butler, as much as it seems like there just isn’t anything happen at all.

And that’s landed us here.

Earlier this week, reports broke that Butler would prefer to land with a contender if he’s traded. Two teams on his list, the Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets, play in Butler’s native Texas. A third team is the Golden State Warriors, who are committed to making the most of whatever Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have left in them over the next few years.

On Wednesday, ESPN reported that the Phoenix Suns are another team that Butler would like to be traded too. That report was denied by Butler’s agent Bernie Lee in a series of social media posts, but that hasn’t kept speculation from running rampant over the day or so.

You have the history. Now, let’s dive into how a Butler trade could come together for each of his reportedly preferred destinations. This is the important part, because putting together a Butler trade isn’t an easy matter.

Let’s first understand Jimmy Butler’s contract. Here’s what it looks like:

• 2024-25: $48,798,677
• 2025-26: $52,413,394 (player option)
• Total: two years, $101,212,071

Next, let’s look at where the Miami Heat sit with the luxury tax and the first and second aprons:

• $13.9 million over the luxury tax
• $9.2 million over the first apron
• $1.6 million under the second apron

It’s also important to note that the Heat are not hard-capped at either the first or second apron. That means Miami can aggregate players in trades, provided the end result sees them staying under the second apron. However, because the Heat are well over the first apron, they can’t take back more salary in a deal than they send out, because that would trigger a first-apron hard cap. These factors are going to be crucial to remember as we piece together possible options.

Got all that? Good! Let’s dive in!

(Note: We’re presenting these mostly as straight-up two-team trades. There are scenarios where involving a third team can make a deal work, but we’re using a standard two-team framework to demonstrate the complexity in a Butler trade. Also: We’re only demonstrating the challenges of matching salary in a Butler deal. We’re not getting into player and draft picks values here.)

Phoenix Suns

We’re starting with the Phoenix Suns idea, because it’s the freshest rumor and simultaneously the most complex and the most simple one to tackle. Phoenix trading for Jimmy Butler is tricky because the Suns are so far over the second apron that they can’t even see it anymore ($31.5 million over). That means, Phoenix can’t take back more salary than they send out (kind of…we’ll get there momentarily!) and Phoenix also can’t aggregate salaries in a trade either.

That means any trade that sends Butler to the Suns has to send Bradley Beal, Devin Booker or Kevin Durant back to Miami. There’s simply no other way to make a deal work.

The Suns can’t aggregate salaries in trades, so they have to send one of Beal, Booker or Durant to the Heat. However, each player in that trio makes more money than Butler does. Because the Heat are already over the first apron, they can’t take back even one dollar more than what Butler makes in a straight-up deal. The Suns also can’t take back more salary than they send out, so taking back even a minimum-salary player makes this difficult to work.

So, we’re dead in the water, right? Not so fast, my friend!

In NBA trades, each side is allowed to structure a deal in the way that is most beneficial for them. This can be to create a trade exception, or sometimes simply to make a deal legal. It’s that last part where the Suns and Heat could push a trade through. 

Proposed trade:

• Miami Heat acquire Bradley Beal
• Phoenix Suns acquire Jimmy Butler, Josh Richardson

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

• Butler and Richardson combined make less than Beal, so Miami is clear there.
• Miami would trigger a second-apron hard cap, because they have aggregated players in this deal. The Heat would be roughly $3.3 million under the second apron following the trade. Thankfully, that’s more than enough room to fill out their roster to the required 14 players on standard contracts.
• Phoenix isn’t aggregating in this deal, so there are no concerns there.
• The Suns get around the restriction of taking back more salary than they sent out by breaking this up into two trades on their side.
  • Butler is acquired for Beal. Butler makes less than Beal, so no issue there.
  • Richardson is acquired via the Minimum Exception (which allows for any player signed via the Minimum Exception to be acquired in a trade).

(Note: This trade also works with Alec Burks or Thomas Bryant in place of Richardson, but that leaves the Heat with less space under the second apron to fill out their roster post-trade.)

Now, it’s important to note that Bradley Beal has a no-trade clause. Yes, he was reportedly interested in playing in Miami in the past, but that was with Jimmy Butler, not in replace of him. Maybe Beal would be fine with heading back east, but his no-trade clause complicates things quite a bit. He can scuttle any deal if it doesn’t work for him. Basically: Beal has control here, not the teams.

And, yes, this trade would work if you substituted Kevin Durant or Devin Booker for Beal, but it’s unlikely that the Suns would go in that direction.

One last thing: The Suns (or any team acquiring Butler) could extend Butler after this deal. He’d have to decline his player option for next season, and he’d be limited in years and dollars. Neither of those seem like major stumbling blocks, as longer deals would see Butler bumping up against the Over-38 rule and he’s already on a near-max salary as it is.

Houston Rockets

We’re going to cover the Houston Rockets next, because the path to a Butler trade isn’t that complicated for them mechanics-wise. Houston faces no meaningful apron-related restrictions and can aggregate salaries together. The Rockets have more than enough clearance under the luxury tax and the aprons to take back more salary than they send out without any worries.

Houston is sitting on nearly $41 million in expiring or pseudo-expiring (team options and non-guarantees) that they could put into a trade. The Rockets also have a bunch of interesting young players and they have draft assets to put into trade offers too.

Rockets GM Rafael Stone recently reiterated once again that he’s not looking to make a major deal this season. He wants to see what Houston does with this core before committing to adding veterans. We’ll take him at his word…for now. If the cost for Butler comes down enough, or a more appealing veteran star becomes available in the next couple of months, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Stone change his tune a bit.

And that’s fine! Stone doesn’t need to play his hand yet. He’s got a good thing going and he’s got no reason to mess around today. He’s got roughly two more months of evaluation before the deadline to figure out if the Rockets need to do anything or not.

We’re not going to present a proposed trade here, because the options are so plentiful. Play with Rockets-Heat ideas using our NBA Trade Machine until your heart’s content!

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas faces some issues in a potential Jimmy Butler trade. The Mavericks are hard-capped at the first apron (by virtue of the Klay Thompson sign-and-trade acquisition). In addition, the Mavs are only $386,752 under the first apron. That’s a pretty tight margin to work with.

On the plus side, Dallas doesn’t have any aggregation restrictions. That’s good, because the only way they can make a deal is by stacking together a whole bunch of contracts. We’re assuming Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are off-limits here, because why would you add Butler while moving one of your current stars?

Proposed trade:

• Miami Heat acquire Daniel Gafford, Quentin Grimes, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell, P.J. Washington
• Dallas Mavericks acquire Jimmy Butler

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

• The Dallas side works, despite the Mavericks taking on more salary than they are sending out by about $600,000. Because P.J. Washington has $500,000 in incentives in his deal, those currently count towards the first apron for the Mavericks. When you send Washington out, those incentives go with him. That creates enough space under the first-apron hard cap to push the trade through.
• However…Dallas would be only $228,917 under the first apron post-trade. And, as you can see, Dallas would have fill three roster spots. That’s not enough space to get back into the roster requirement of having 14 players on standard contracts.

And that’s where we’ll basically cut it off for Dallas. Yes, there are other ways to make a legal trade that also lets the Mavericks fill out their roster, but they all get unlikely, unwieldy or both.

We’ll also add that there’s been some very credible reporting out of Dallas that the Mavericks aren’t ready to take on another near-max veteran with new contracts upcoming for both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving in the near future. Let’s just move along.

Golden State Warriors

We saved the most likely team for last, because they are easily the most complicated situation to figure out.

What makes the Warriors the most likely team to trade for Jimmy Butler? They reportedly want another on-ball creator to ease the burden on Stephen Curry and Draymond Green to key everything for their offense. Golden State is also reportedly ok with adding veterans to match Curry’s and Green’s timeline to make the most of whatever the two veteran stars have left.

What makes this the most complicated situation? Once again, it’s those pesky aprons and hard caps!

The Warriors are hard-capped at the first apron. And they have only $533,659 in wiggle room under that marker. Here’s how tight things are for the Dubs: They can’t even fill their 15th roster spot right now, because they don’t have enough space for even a prorated minimum signing under the first-apron hard cap.

On the Heat side, they aren’t hard-capped, but they are only $1,638,713 under the second apron.

Both sides can aggregate salaries, but these margins are really tight. Like pants the day after Thanksgiving tight.

You put in an extra player on the Miami side, and the deal isn’t legal on the Golden State side. You switch out one player for another on the Warriors side and it isn’t legal on the Heat side.

Because of that, we’re going to add in the Detroit Pistons as a facilitator.

Proposed trade:

• Miami Heat acquire Jonathan Kuminga, De’Anthony Melton, Andrew Wiggins from Golden State, top-55 protected second-round pick from Detroit
• Golden State Warriors acquire Jimmy Butler
• Detroit Pistons acquire Gary Payton II

Here’s how it looks in our handy NBA Trade Machine on Spotrac:

Here’s how it works:

• The Heat are taking back approximately $2 million less than they are sending out. That gives them the clearance to push the trade through while not tripping over a first-apron hard cap.
• Golden State clears about $7 million in this deal. Given the Warriors need to sign at least three players to get back into roster compliance with 14 players on standard contracts, that’s enough space to make that happen.
• Detroit still has $10 million in cap space. They can easily absorb Gary Payton II’s deal.
• The Pistons also have an open roster spot, which makes taking in Payton no issue.
• Miami would have to waive a player, or they could route one of their other players somewhere else in a deal, before completing this trade.
• Because Miami and Detroit have to connect to satisfy the “touch rules” in a multi-team trade, we have the Pistons sending the Heat a top-55 protected second-round pick to meet that requirement.

Now, we can, and should, argue about the values here. That’s not really what the exercise was about. Yes, maybe the Heat wouldn’t want Andrew Wiggins contract, but there’s no reasonable way to make this trade happen without Wiggins in the deal.

Summary

If Jimmy Butler wants to get to a contender, especially one with hard cap and apron issues, it’s not going to be easy. Fortunately for the Miami Heat, they have one of the NBA’s preeminent CBA/salary cap maestros in Andy Elisburg in their front office. If it can be done, Elisburg will find a way to make it happen.

The main point of this exercise was to show that trading Butler to the Suns, Warriors, Mavericks or Rockets (the last one is super simple) isn’t impossible. Unlikely? Maybe. Needs to involve a third team? Possibly. Tricky to make work given trade rules and satisfying value requirements on all side? Absolutely.

But it’s not impossible for Jimmy Butler to get where he wants to go. And NBA history tells us that when a star wants to be somewhere, he more often than not gets to that destination.

RELATED:

NBA Trade Machine

With the NWSL end-of-season roster decisions in the books, there are a number of teams still negotiating with their free agents to keep them with their 2024 teams in the coming year, and now’s the time to take an initial look at the turnover between 2024 and 2025 rosters and some metrics like minutes played, goals, assists, and chances created as well as the breakdown of current rosters by position.

Positional Breakdown

Note: Totals include 2023/2024 SEI’s toward the positional totals for each team. These players are technically non-active players and do not count toward the 26 player roster limit nor the 2025 salary cap until they are medically cleared to play and re-join the active roster. Positions are based on what the team’s put in their announcements.

The first thing that stands out is that a number of teams do not have at least two rostered goalkeepers with the Kansas City Current’s complete lack of signed goalkeeper being the most striking part. San Diego and Seattle both have a singular goalkeeper signed for 2025 while Washington technically has two—although one still has a 2024 SEI designation. 

Teams are pretty consistent in having between five and nine defenders on roster, with the average across the teams being slightly above six. Gotham’s offseason has seen a thinning of their midfield with only three signed for 2025 and San Diego is only slightly better with four midfielders tied down. Even with those numbers, the average across the stack is again slightly above six and maxing out with Utah, Louisville, and Orlando’s having eight midfielders. Forwards have a similar story to the defenders with all the teams being in a pretty even spread between five and eight. 

Minutes Played

Looking at the 25,740 minutes played by each team in the 2024 regular season, above is a function of how much of their total minutes played is rostered for 2025. All four teams who have at least 90% of their minutes returning did make the 2024 playoffs. Of the teams to make it to the semifinals in postseason, Gotham and Kansas City being in the bottom half of the chart is slightly surprising considering teams often try to keep players with substantial minutes year-over-year in order to maximize upon the connections already made.  

Goals

Unsurprisingly, the majority of the NWSL teams who finished above the playoff line— the top eight teams in the table—have players with the most goals scored returning in 2025 with the sole exception of the Chicago Red Stars who are just ninth in this chart. 

After finishing the 2024 NWSL regular season at the bottom of the table and although they currently are second to last in terms of goals returning Houston surprisingly is the fourth team in terms of keeping their 2024 goalscorers rostered for 2025. The retirement of Portland’s Christine Sinclair, the trade of Janine Beckie, and waiving of Izzy D’Aquila accounts for their position near the bottom of this chart. In a similar manner, Orlando’s position here is solely due to Marta being a free agent and not having re-signed yet—negotiations are ongoing. 

Assists

Similar to the Goals Returning table above, the assists returning aligns fairly close to the playoff line with just some differences in the ordering. The top eight here all made the playoffs, the bottom six did not. 

When you look at the percentages as part of each teams’ performance, you can see that the two expansion sides—Utah and Bay FC—both retained 100% of their assist generators alongside Washington and North Carolina. Racing’s position at the bottom of this chart is mostly due to trades during the 2024 regular season versus not re-signing players. 

Chances Created

Chances created are a cumulative total of ‘assists’ and ‘key passes’ where ‘key passes’ are the final pass from a player to their teammate who then makes an attempt on Goal without scoring.

The four teams who made it to the semifinals being in the top five of this table is no surprise as they were also four of the top five teams in terms of overall chances created in 2025—Portland was the other team in the overall chances created total with 293. The expansion teams once again being high on this chart is indicative that they feel confident in the squad’s they put together and to be honest both sides form throughout the season just kept getting better. 

Regarding the Chances Created as a percentage of team total, the top of the chart follows the trend on minutes returning with Washington, Bay, Kansas City, and North Carolina being a close top four and then there being a drop before you hit five through eight. Houston’s rough 2024 has them rounding out the bottom in both the Chances Created charts and that’ll be something for them to focus on adding in the current offseason.

Trade Window

As a reminder, the NWSL trade window will once again open up tomorrow (Friday December 13th) and stay open until it closes for the holiday transaction moratorium December 20th — December 27th. The 92 unsigned free agents are free to sign with their 2024 club or a new club at any time outside of the transaction moratorium. 

Spotrac details the largest free agent signings and contract extensions across MLB throughout the 2025 offseason.


RELATED: MLB Free Agency Tracker

2B Thairo Estrada signed a 1 year, $3.25 million free agent contract in Colorado.

The 28-year-old earned $4.1M last season in San Francisco, but was outrighted and eventually released early this offseason. He’ll now see $2.75M in 2025, with a $750,000 buyout available on an undisclosed 2026 mutual option with the Rockies.

RP Yimi Garcia returned to Toronto on a 2 year, $15 million free agent contract.

The Blue Jays actually traded Garcia to Seattle at this past deadline, securing two minor leaguers in the process. The 34-year-old returns on his biggest contract to date, and projects to be vying for Toronto’s 9th inning role this spring.

SP Nathan Eovaldi returned to Texas on a 3 year, $75 million free agent contract

The 34-year-old declined a $20M player option last month to reenter the open market, but found his way back to the Rangers with a $75M guarantee under his belt. Eovaldi projects to sit atop the Texas rotation as of now, with Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, & Tyler Mahle falling in behind him.

The $75M guarantee ensures that the former 11th round pick will have earned over $185M in his MLB career through 2027.

SP Max Fried joined the Yankees on an 8 year, $218 million free agent contract. 

The 30-year-old has had at least one injured list stint in every season since 2018, including a three week period last year due to forearm irritation. Injury is the major red flag here, but the ceiling still remains sky high, and the Yankees are putting all of their chips in on him, handing Friend the largest total value contract for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history. The contract also contains a full no trade clause throughout its duration.

Current Yankees Starting Rotation

OF Mike Tauchman signed a 1 year, $1.95 million contract with the White Sox.

Tauchman heads to the north side of the city after being non-tendered by the Cubs a few weeks back. The White Sox locked the 34-year-old into the same salary he earned in 2024, though he can increase that by $1M based on TBD incentives, and another $250,000 if he’s traded this season.

Full Mike Tauchman Contract

SP Alex Cobb joined the Tigers on a 1 year, $15 million free agent contract.

Cobb went through three separate stints on the injured list with San Francisco/Cleveland last season, so durability is certainly top of mind for the now 37-year-old. Cobb figures to slot into the middle of the Tigers starting rotation.

The contract can max out at $17M based on Cobb pitching 140, then 150 innings in the upcoming season.

Full Alex Cobb Contract

RP Jordan Romano signed a 1 year, $8.5 million free agent contract with the Phillies

The somewhat surprising non-tender out of Toronto quickly found work in Philly, where he currently slots in as the 9th inning reliever for 2025. The 31-year-old can add another $500,000 to this deal if he works through 60 innings this season.

Full Jordan Romano Contract

RP Blake Treinen returned to the Dodgers on a 2 year, $22 million contract.

Treinen returns to LA, where he played out 2024 on a $1M salary as he worked himself back to full health. The 36-year-old gave the Dodgers 50 appearances last season, performing well enough to garner the biggest contract of his career this winter.

OF Juan Soto signed an historic 15 year, $765 million free agent contract with the New York Mets.

Steve Cohen simply wasn’t going to lose this war, even as 3 other teams dipped their toes into the $700M+ pool. While full terms aren’t yet available, we do know that Soto will receive a record-breaking $75 million signing bonus, a full no trade clause, and the ability to opt-out of the contract after the 2029 season. However, the Mets can void that opt-out by adding $40M to the 10 remaining seasons of the contract ($4M per year).

Unlike many of the blockbuster contracts being signed around the league, none of Juan Soto’s $765 million contract contains deferred compensation, making him a $51M per year player at present day value.

OF Michael Conforto joined the Dodgers on a 1 year, $17 million free agent contract

Injuries continue to devalue Conforto’s overall resume, but the final numbers for 2024 in San Francisco were promising (27 doubles, 20 homers, 66 RBIs, 1.34 WAR). He projects as the Opening Day starting left fielder for LAD as of now, though a reunion with Teoscar Hernandez could very much change that.

An undisclosed portion of Conforto’s $8.5M salary is deferred, while the other half will be paid out to Conforto in the form of a signing bonus.

C Gary Sanchez signed a 1 year, $8.5 million free agent contract with Baltimore.

Sanchez spent twice as many 2024 games as a DH (46) than he did a C (28) while also plugging a hole at 1B every now and then for the Brewers last season. He’ll likely do the same for the Orioles in 2025, giving Adley Rutschman time out of his crouching stance as much as possible, primarily speaking.

OF Tyler O’Neill joined the Orioles on a 3 year, $49.5 million free agent contract

Despite 3 stints in the injured list, O’Neill had one of his best overall seasons to date with Boston in 2024, hitting the open market at a strong selling point. Baltimore bought in, bringing in O’Neill as a likely every day left fielder.

The deal includes $16.5 million in 2025, after which the 29-year-old can opt-out of the remaining 2 years, $33 million. If not, it’s a flat $16.5M each of 2026 & 2027 as well.

Full Tyler O’Neill Contract

SS Willy Adames signed an historic 7 year, $182 million free agent contract with the Giants.

It’s the largest total value contract in San Francisco Giants history, surpassing Buster Posey’s $167M deal by $15M. It’s also a $5M raise over Dansby Swanson’s recent free agent contract with the Cubs (7 years, $177M), a clear focal point for Adames’ final cost.

The 29-year-old will secure a $22M signing bonus this year, and a full no trade clause throughout the life of the contract. Salary-wise the deal comes with $10M each of the next two seasons, then $28M for each of the final five.

Adames previously declined a Qualifying Offer so the Giants will forfeit their 2nd and 5th-round draft selections in 2025.

Full Willy Adames Contract

C Danny Jansen signed a 1 year, $8.5M free agent contract with Tampa Bay.

The 29-year-old backstop will earn an $8M salary in 2025, with a $500,000 buyout available on a $12M club option for 2026.

For now, Jansen projects to be Tampa Bay’s opening day starting catcher, though it’s fair to assume that Ben Rortvedt, who saw action in 112 games for TB last year, will also factor into the position.

Full Danny Jansen Contract

P Clay Holmes joins the Mets on a 3 year, $38 million free agent contract.

The story here isn’t so much the money, but the role that Holmes will be serving in Queens. The 31-year-old has been signed as a back-end of the Mets starting rotation player, making the transition over from a 9th-inning reliever for much of the past three seasons with the Yankees.

Contractually, Holmes will see $13M in 2025, another $13M for 2026, then holds a $12M player option in 2027 (no buyout).

Full Clay Holmes Contract

SP Shane Bieber returns to Cleveland on a 2 year, $26 million free agent contract.

Bieber’s final season before free agency was lost to elbow surgery, and he’s not likely to return to the mound until mid-2025, but the Guardians remain confident that he can anchor this young rotation when the time is right.

The 29-year-old will earn $10M in 2025, then holds a $16M player option for 2026 that includes a $4M buyout. If Bieber returns to top-level form to finish off 2024, he’ll almost certainly opt-out and reenter the open market next winter.

Full Shane Bieber Contract

SP Luis Severino signed a 3 year, $67 million contract with the Athletics

The surprise of the winter, the Athletics handed out the single largest contract in their franchise’s history. Severino leaves the Mets for a $10M signing bonus, $20M salary in 2025, $25M salary in 2026, and a $22M player option in 2027 (no buyout). The 30-year-old can opt-out after 2 years, $55M, and there’s a one-time $500,000 trade assignment bonus attached the contract as well.

Severino previously declined a Qualifying Offer so the Athletics will forfeit their third-round draft selection in 2025.

Full Luis Severino Contract

RP Aroldis Chapman signed a 1 year, $10.75 million contract with the Boston Red Sox.

Chapman gave the Pirates 68 appearances in 2024, finishing 18 games, striking out 98 batters in 61+ innings. He now joins forces with 35-year-old Liam Hendriks in Boston, and could have even more opportunities to close out games in the 2025 season.

The $10.75M guaranteed takes Chapman over $176M earned in 16 MLB seasons.

Full Aroldis Chapman Contract

C Kyle Higashioka signed a 2 year $13.5 million contract with the Texas Rangers.

Texas added depth to their catching room, bringing over the 34-year-old Higashioka from San Diego. He’ll earn $5.75M in 2025, $6.75M in 2026, and at least a $1M buyout on a $7M mutual option for 2027. With starting catcher Jonah Heim slated for an arbitration salary north of $5M, the Rangers will likely enter 2025 with one of the more expensive catching payrolls.

Full Kyle Higashioka Contract

SP Blake Snell signed a 5 year, $182 million free agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The deal includes a $52 million signing bonus and $66M of deferred compensation, lowering the CBT salary from $36.4M, down to $31.7M.

Snell will receive $65M in 2025 (more than double the $32M he earned from his 1 season in San Francisco last year), then $13M in each of 2026-2029. There’s a $10M conditional club option in place for 2030, but that only remains if Snell hasn’t been traded/claimed away from the Dodgers AND if Snell has a 90+ day stint on the injured list for an undisclosed specific injury (likely arm related).

The deferred money kicks in in 2035, paying out Snell $5.5M each year through 2046 (when he’ll be 53 years old).

The $182M total value contract ranks 4th among active starting pitchers, 9th all-time in that regard. Snell’s original $36.4M APY ranks 3rd, behind only Zack Wheeler ($42M), & Jacob deGrom ($37M).

At the time of this piece, the Dodgers current starting rotation now looks like:

UTL Tommy Edman signed a 5 year, $74 million extension with the Los Angeles Dodgers

The NLCS MVP was already under contract at $9.5 million for 2025, so this is technically a 4 year, $64.5 million new money contract. Edman will now see $22 million in 2025 thanks to a $17 million signing bonus & $5 million salary. From there, salaries increase to $12.25 million through 2029, and there’s a $13 million club option available in 2030 ($3 million buyout).

However, the Dodgers have deferred $25 million of salary ($6.25 million from each of 2026-2029) at 10 payments of $2.5 million each from 2035-2044. The move lowers Edman’s tax salary from $14.8 million down to $13.27 million.

In 153 regular season games last season, Edman was used at CF, SS, 3B, & 2B. He projects to be the Opening Day starting center fielder for LAD as of now.

SP Yusei Kikuchi joins the Angels on a 3 year, $63.675 million free agent contract

After a rough 2+ year stretch in Toronto, Kikuchi drastically changed his free agent image with a strong final two months in Houston following a deadline trade to the Astros. The Angels, who have purged a few starting pieces this offseason already, are now paying the 33-year-old as a top of their rotation (possibly even ace) player.

The deal includes a flat $21.225 million per year salary through 2027, with additional service payments for a trainer ($100,000), interpreter ($75,000), & US-Japan airline tickets ($50,000).

At the time of this piece, the Angels current starting rotation now looks like:

SP Frankie Montas joins the Mets on a 2 year, $34 million free agent contract

The 31-year-old starter has bounced around quite a bit over the past 3 seasons, and he declined a $20 million option with Milwaukee to hit the open market again this winter. He joins the Mets on a 2 year, $34 million deal that includes a player option for 2026, giving him the ability to control his destiny again next offseason.

The deal includes $17 million in each of the next two seasons, a slight upgrade from the $16 million he took home in 2024 ($14 million salary + a $2 million buyout on the declined option).

At the time of this piece, the Mets current starting rotation now looks like:

SP Matt Boyd signed a 2 year, $29 million free agent contract with the Chicago Cubs

After missing a year and a half (2023-2024) from Tommy John surgery, Boyd gave the Guardians 8 strong starts down the stretch, putting him in a nice spot to cash in this winter. The Cubs took the bait, handing Boyd a $29 million guarantee that includes a $2 million buyout on a mutual option for 2027.

The 33-year-old will earn $12.5 million this season ($7.5 million salary plus a $5 million signing bonus), $14.5 million in 2026, with a $15 million option for 2027 ($2 million buyout). The compensation is a huge upgrade for Boyd, who was given a league-minimum $740,000 contract from Cleveland as he rehabbed back to full health.

At the time of this piece, the Cubs current starting rotation now looks like:

Spotrac’s annual NFL Roster Bubble report identifies players that have the potential to be released, traded, or retire after the current 2024 season, including notable financial ramifications for each.

RELATED: 2025 Cap Hit Rankings

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QUARTERBACKS

This year's QB bubble list highlights an immovable contract, a few highly-drafted trade candidates, and a few savvy vets that could be passed over for a youth movement in the coming months.

RUNNING BACKS

As running back salaries have plummeted, the annual bubble list for these players has shrunk, as teams are more than happy to keep these players at veritable values. The following list outlines a free agent bust or two, a potential high-profile trade candidate, and more than a few role players headed toward the chopping block next spring.

Wide Receivers

December 15 is a big day on the NBA calendar. On that date, the vast majority of the players who signed over the summer become trade-eligible. While NBA “trade season” doesn’t have an official opening day, December 15 might as well be it. Around the league, executives refer to this period as the “Early Trade Season”.

In each of the last six seasons, the NBA has seen a trade made somewhere between days and weeks of “Early Trade Season” opening:

• January 14, 2024: Danilo Gallinari and Mike Muscala traded from Washington Wizards to the Detroit Pistons for Marvin Bagley III and Isaiah Livers
• December 30, 2023: RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley traded from the New York Knicks to the Toronto Raptors for OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa.
• January 5, 2023: Noah Vonleh traded from the Boston Celtics to the San Antonio Spurs in a salary-shedding/tax avoidance move for Boston
• January 3, 2022: Rajon Rondo traded from the Los Angeles Lakers to the Cleveland Cavaliers in a deal that also involved the New York Knicks
• January 16, 2021 (this season worked on an adjusted calendar due to starting a month later): James Harden was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Brooklyn Nets in a deal that involved the Cleveland Cavaliers and included seven players and multiple draft picks changing hands
• December 23, 2019: Jordan Clarkson was traded from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Dante Exum
• December 17, 2018: Trevor Ariza was traded from the Phoenix Suns to the Washington Wizards in exchange for Kelly Oubre Jr. and Austin Rivers

Sometimes the trades involve players where the teams had to wait for the restriction to lift, and other times it’s just time for a deal to happen. Often, these deals are the result of months of trade talks that finally come to fruition in mid-to-late-December. But one thing is certain: be on the lookout for movement when “Early Trade Season” opens on Friday, December 15.

One potential reason, beyond history, to watch for an early trade is the benefit of being an early mover. The new CBA has made it harder to make deals with hard-caps and more ways than ever to trigger them. Waiting until trade deadline week (or even deadline day) to make a major move might be hard to make happen.

Because of that, you might see sellers looking to make moves before the buyer market dries up as a result of various restrictions and tight margins around the tax and the aprons. You could also see buyers make a move early to remove the chance that things get too complicated to pull off a move closer to the February 6th deadline. In addition, the 2025 NBA Draft class is loaded and teams are going to want to put themselves in position to land as high of a pick as possible.

This year, we’ve going to present the list in terms of teams to watch as early movers: either as buyers or sellers. There’s clearly some benefit to getting things done early. We’ll break down why we are focused on these teams as the ones to make an early trade.

Sellers

Brooklyn Nets

Players to watch: The entire roster

No snark intended here. The entire Brooklyn Nets roster is available in trade talks. The Nets don’t have a franchise player Thus, they haven’t made anyone untouchable. That’s the smart approach for Brooklyn.

Why might the Nets move early? They’ve already won at a better clip than ever expected. They didn’t trade to get their draft pick back to finish in the middle of the lottery. (Yes, we know ownership and Sean Marks have both said differently, but we aren’t buying it.) Expect them to pivot towards ping pong balls sooner rather than later.

In any trades they make, the Nets will be looking for a combination of young players, draft picks and salary relief. The Nets currently project to have over $40 million in cap space this summer, but that figure could easily grow to well over $60 million if Marks gets off some future salary.

One counterproposal: This doesn’t look like a quick turnaround for Brooklyn. If they can increase their return in trades by taking on some bad long-term salary, that’s worth considering. There aren’t any splashy, quick-fix free agents that will take the team from rebuilding to contender in the span of one offseason. Eating a little money to improve the young players or draft picks they get for their veterans isn’t a bad idea.

Chicago Bulls

Players to watch: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic

In reality, no one should be off limits for the Chicago Bulls. However, outside of Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, there are reasons others won’t be very involved in trade talks. Some are young and part of what Chicago is building (Matas Buzelis, Coby White, Patrick Williams), while others are coming off injuries or are veterans that won’t bring much in return (Lonzo Ball, Jevon Carter, Torrey Craig).

And let’s not pretend trading LaVine or Vucevic is a simple thing either. LaVine is coming off an injury while carrying a huge contract. Vucevic is an aging big man who doesn’t offer much defensively. But both have been outstanding offensively this year and that’s rebuilt their trade value.

LaVine looks healthy again. He’s been quick and explosive. The veteran guard is turning in one of his best all-around offensive seasons. Yes, his contract is large ($138 million through 2026-27), but LaVine is proving to be worth it. It’s unlikely that a better offensive player will be available at this deadline.

As for Vucevic, he’s having a career-year on offense. The veteran center is shooting 58.7% from the field. That would shatter his career-best mark by over six percentage points. In addition, Vucevic is hitting 47.4% of his three-pointers. Again, easily a career-best mark.

Sure, there’s going to be some drop-off coming. Vucevic is unlikely to maintain such a torrid pace. But there’s not going to be a better offensive center (and he still rebounds at a pretty good clip too) available this trade season than Vucevic.

Despite history to the contrary, the Bulls could be an early mover to accelerate moving towards a better draft pick. Chicago owes a top-10 protected pick to the San Antonio Spurs. They don’t want to be anywhere near that cutoff line come lottery time.

New Orleans Pelicans

Players to watch: Brandon Ingram, C.J. McCollum, Zion Williamson

To be fair, Brandon Ingram has been on trade watch since last summer. We’re still here. The difference now is that Ingram recently changed agents and that’s usually done to spark movement on an extension or a trade.

Here’s the challenge: Ingram just suffered a pretty severe ankle injury. He’s expected to miss multiple weeks. That could slow things down as far as his trade market goes.

To continue to be fair, it’s probably not really likely that C.J. McCollum gets traded, and even less likely Zion Williamson does. But talks now could set the stage for a summer move. If New Orleans resets around a core of Dejounte Murray, Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones and draft picks, they could move the others to hasten that reset, including whoever they get with a likely high draft pick.

It’s that likelihood of a top pick that means the Pelicans could be an early mover. They’re going to want to stay inside the top few picks in the lottery, both to help their odds and to guard against slipping down if others jump up.

New Orleans has said they want to get a look at the roster when healthy, but that doesn’t seem likely to happen this season. Because of that, look here for a big move or two before the deadline.

Portland Trail Blazers

Players to watch: Jerami Grant, Duop Reath, Anfernee Simons, Robert Williams III

The Portland Trail Blazers are probably closer to the Brooklyn Nets in terms of no one being off limits than they’d like to admit. Sure, it’d cost a decent amount to get Shaedon Sharpe or Donovan Clingan (and less to get Scoot Henderson), but neither of those guys screams untouchable franchise guy.

That being said, Portland isn’t going to trade the kids they’ve drafted in the last few years. The vets? Keep a moving company on retainer for the next couple of months.

The Trail Blazers don’t want to miss out on adding a top tier player in the 2025 NBA Draft. So, they need to get to losing. Right now, Portland is seventh in the lottery. That’s not nearly bad enough to guarantee one of the best five or six players in this draft class.

How do you move down? By trading away the vets that are keeping you competitive. Jerami Grant has the long contract, but the size of any single season isn’t overly daunting anymore, not with the cap growth that is projected. Anfernee Simons has a very tradable deal and teams are always looking for backcourt scoring and shooting. Robert Williams III has a great contract, if a team can convince themselves he’ll stay healthy.

Deandre Ayton could be movable, as he’s only got a year left. If there’s a team that is just missing a center from making a playoff run, they could convince themselves to go for Ayton for a two-year look. Matisse Thybulle is kind of in the Williams camp. He’s a great defender and an improved shooter, but he’s battling an injury.

Washington Wizards

Players to watch: Malcolm Brogdon, Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole, Jonas Valanciunas

Basically, if you weren’t selected in the last two drafts, the Wizards will probably trade you. And that’s fine. This team is just starting the full rebuild process, even openly saying they are still in teardown mode.

Washington is already bad. Like, worst in the NBA by a wide margin bad. Why would they be an early mover? Simply to not miss out on the market. If buyers make moves early, options for Washington to trade their vets could dry up. That would be a major missed opportunity.

Expect lots of interest to come in Kyle Kuzma, Malcolm Brogdon and Jonas Valanciunas. All three vets fill holes teams are always looking to plug at the trade deadline. And all three have reasonable, tradable contracts.

Jordan Poole is more of a wild-card. His contract doesn’t look as onerous anymore, because Poole has played quite well this season. This one might be more of an offseason move, but it wouldn’t be a shocker if a team felt like Poole could help them and made a move for him now.

Buyers

Denver Nuggets

Needs: Shooting, bench depth

The Denver Nuggets don’t have a ton to work with trade-wise. They’re over the first apron, so taking back more money than they send out isn’t possible. They do have enough wiggle room under the second apron that they can combine some salary. That’s good news, as Denver can get to about $14.7 million without touching any core rotation players.

That should be enough to get Denver in the mix for some decent upgrades for their bench. This team desperately needs more shooting. They could also simply use more depth across the board. The Nuggets might also move early just so they don’t miss out. Their apron window is tight enough that they need to strike when they can.

Golden State Warriors

Needs: Star power, playmaking

Steve Kerr leaned on his depth early on to propel the Golden State Warriors to a terrific start. Now, that’s started to flip a bit. The Warriors don’t have much star power behind Stephen Curry and they severely lack in on-ball playmaker. In addition, there’s started to be some grumbling about the expanded rotation and inconsistent roles.

The Warriors scream consolidation trade. The margins are extremely tight for Mike Dunleavy Jr. to work around though. Golden State is hard-capped at the first apron and currently have just over $500,000 to work with in space. So, making a big move is tricky, but not impossible.

Mostly, for the Warriors to land a star, they’re likely going to have to put Jonathan Kuminga and/or draft picks on the table in a deal. That’s in addition to probably having to move Andrew Wiggins to match salary.

If it’s a blockbuster trade or a smaller deal to consolidate, while adding depth, expect Golden State to trade De’Anthony Melton. Yes, that’s a little harsh as he’s out for the season, but it’s really just math. Melton’s $12.8 million salary will go a long way towards salary-matching. And because he’s on an expiring deal, the Warriors could re-sign him next summer as a free agent, even if they trade him away now.

Houston Rockets

Needs: Shooting, playmaking

The Houston Rockets are kind of a tricky one. They’re still growing with their young core. They definitely need more shooting, and could use more playmaking, but they won’t want to do that at the expense of their developing players. They’ve said as much repeatedly.

In some ways, Houston is more likely to stand pat at the deadline. Then they can survey where things land, figure out what they need after a postseason run, and make their big move this coming summer.

But if Jimmy Butler really wants to play in Houston, as per reports… Or Kevin Durant surprisingly becomes available… Or (insert veteran star here) is put on the market…

Any of those probably change the calculus for the Rockets. Houston can get to over $40 million in expiring or pseudo-expiring (options or non-guarantees) tradable salary without touching a single core rotation player. Rafael Stone also has some extra draft picks to move, including ones from the Suns and the Nets.

All of the above means that if a star is available, and the Rockets want to be involved in trading for that star, they can be. That makes them a team to watch now, closer to the deadline or next offseason.

Los Angeles Lakers

Needs: Depth, scoring, playmaking, perimeter defense

Nothing has really gone right for the Los Angeles Lakers this season, outside of Dalton Knecht showing he slipped too far in the draft. When you have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, sitting in the middle isn’t acceptable. That means a shakeup is probably coming.

The Lakers struggles as a decidedly average team with little upside, combined with overflowing frustration around transaction inaction, means we’re on the clock for James to suggest a move or two is necessary. And we’re using “suggest” to be nice instead of calling it a demand, which is what it will really be.

The Lakers have the same tight margins as many others, despite not yet triggering a hard cap at either apron. But being well over the first apron, and barely below the second apron, means that Rob Pelinka is going to have to be careful with any moves he makes.

Despite that, Los Angeles has tradable salaries. The only really off-limits players will probably be James, Davis and possibly Knecht (less so for the rookie, but they aren’t just tossing him in deals either). D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, any of the minimum players and, yes, the once-untouchable Austin Reaves could all be moved.

For the Lakers, the reason to make an early move is simple: They need to climb the standings. The last two years have seen Los Angeles have to push really hard for postseason positioning, and that’s resulted in still having to work through the Play-In Tournament. If they want to avoid that this year, stacking wins sooner rather than later is important.

Orlando Magic

Needs: Shooting, playmaking, wing depth

The Orlando Magic have stayed remarkably solid since losing Paolo Banchero. But with Franz Wagner now down with the same injury as Banchero suffered, we’re approaching “three darts is too much” territory for Orlando.

That’s why the Magic are potentially a team to watch to make an early move. This team is good. They’ll be really good when they get Banchero and Wagner back, and that will happen as neither is out for the season. The defense will keep Orlando afloat for the next few weeks, but they could use more offensive punch.

Orlando has all of their own first- and second-round picks, an extra first-round pick (from Denver) and a couple of extra second-round picks. The Magic roster is also pretty well-stocked with talent, meaning rostering a whole bunch more young players might not be possible over the next few years.

In addition, Jeff Weltman can put together some packages featuring solid veterans, youngsters with upside and draft picks. That should have the Magic in position to make a move if they find one.

Here’s the challenge: Orlando has been active at the deadline in the past, but it’s generally been with smaller moves, especially after they held a fire sale in 2021.

The counter: None of the Magic teams since then have been as good as this one is. This Magic team can make a real playoff run. They need to bolster the offense around Banchero and Wagner to do that. By making an early move, Orlando could stabilize the offense until the stars return, while setting themselves up even better in the long-term.

Bonus Player to Watch

Jimmy Butler

News broke on Tuesday that the Miami Heat are open to listening to offers for Jimmy Butler. That’s not all that surprising, given Butler and the Heat have seemed to be moving in different directions since last summer. Pat Riley was critical of Butler during the offseason, while Butler was scarcely moved in his extension desires.

Is a trade coming here? Butler makes $48.8 million this season. That’s a very big number to move in-season. But it’s not impossible. For example. Houston could get there relatively easily (Miami would need to waive a bunch of players or re-route them elsewhere because it would be an imbalanced trade roster-wise). The Warriors are reportedly star-hunting, have liked Butler in the past and could put together some contracts to make a run at the veteran wing.

A player of Butler’s status appearing on the trade market juices things. Also, acquiring someone like Butler takes a bit of time to gel. That could mean we see him on the move sooner rather than later this trade season. Think of this like the OG Anunoby or Pascal Siakam moves last year. Big trades that came together earlier than expected, but helped to kickstart the Raptors rebuild, while pushing the Knicks and Pacers playoff runs.