Is it commonplace for big name NFL players to be traded leading up to the NFL draft? Not necessarily, but the trade has become a much more expansively used tool across recent NFL offseasons. We’ve seen high profile players moved just minutes after the start of the new league year, shortly after the first wave of free agency, as voluntary workouts have been set to begin, and even as teams broke camp late in the summer - so why not this week as well?

Spotrac takes a look at 5 players rumored to be on the trade block right now, including financial ramifications associated with a potential move.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR, 49ers)

Aiyuk’s contract dispute has been made public, putting his future in San Francisco very much in question. The 26-year-old is set to play out a fully guaranteed $14.1M option salary for 2024, with his eyes set on DeVonta Smith’s recent $25M per year extension in Philadelphia. There are more than a few teams on speed dial here.

Courtland Sutton (WR, Broncos)

Sutton has made it clear that his wish is to stick around for the next iteration of Broncos football, but wants to be paid accordingly to do so. If the two sides remain far apart this week, look for Denver to dangle Sutton and his 2 year, $27.6M remaining contract on the block. A draft week trade would leave behind $7.65M of dead cap to the Broncos, freeing up $9.7M of space.

Patrick Surtain II (CB, Broncos)

Denver exercised a $19.8M option for 2025, putting Surtain on a 2 year, $23.3M guarantee. This doesn’t change their ability to shop the All-Pro cornerback at the draft, a move that could hand them a much needed package of draft capital for the long weekend. If Denver is willing to meet Surtain’s extension asking price (likely north of $21M per year, $70M guaranteed), a trade this spring could be in the cards. The Broncos would take on a $3.1M dead cap charge should a trade come to fruition, freeing up $3.5M of 2024 space.

Budda Baker (S, Cardinals)

Entering a contract year in Arizona, Baker is set to earn $14.6M against a $19M+ cap hit in 2024. He’s locked in as the starting free safety right now, but the right return package could force Arizona to take on much needed draft picks. A draft week trade would leave behind $3.925M of dead cap to the Cardinals, freeing up $15.1M of space.

Marshon Lattimore (CB, Saints)

The Saints processed a conversion maneuver on Lattimore’s contract that moved $13.8M of salary into an option bonus that doesn’t vest until a week before the regular season. In other words - they bought themselves time to figure out how to proceed here. There’s still $31M of dead cap to deal with here, so a trade after June 1st makes the most business sense, but if an opportunity arises to pick up a few draft picks this week, crazier things have happened. The current contract carries 3 years, $51.5M on it, but just 1 year, $15M for practical purposes.

Honorable Mention: Tee Higgins (WR, Bengals)
All signs point to Higgins playing out 2024 on the $21.8M franchise tag. But a late pre-draft offer not unlike what Tennessee agreed to when A.J. Brown was moved to Philly could certainly change this line of thinking.

With 4-6 potential quarterbacks projected to join new teams this Thursday, Spotrac takes a snapshot look at the contract statuses for every team's current QB room.

Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray: 5 years, $196.6M total; 4 years, $150M practical
Releasable: 2027-28 Tradable: Now

Desmond Ridder: 2 years, $2.6M (non-guaranteed)

Clayton Tune: 3 years, $3.1M (non-guaranteed)

Atlanta Falcons

Kirk Cousins: 4 years, $180M; 2 years, $100M practical

Taylor Heinicke: 1 year, $2.5M ($1.3M guaranteed)

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson: 4 years, $180M; 3 years, $128M practical
Releasable: After 2026; Tradable: After 2025

Malik Cunningham: 1 year, $915k

Josh Johnson: 1 year, $1.3M ($1.1M guaranteed)

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen: 5 years, $189.5M; 2 years, $69.5M practical
Releasable: After 2025; Tradable: After 2024

Mitchell Trubisky: 2 years, $5.25M; 1 year, $2.75M practical

Shane Buechele: 1 year, $1M ($40k guaranteed)

Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young: 3 years, $12.6M, guaranteed (+ 2027 option)

Andy Dalton: 1 year, $4M ($2M guaranteed)

Chicago Bears

#1 Pick: 4 years, $40M, guaranteed (+ 2028 option)

Tyson Bagent: 2 years, $2M (non-guaranteed)

Brett Rypien: 1 year, $1.1M (non-guaranteed)

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow: 6 years, $264.5M; 4 years, $173.5M practical
Releasable: After 2027; Tradable: After 2025

Jake Browning:  1 year, $915k

Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson: 3 years, $138M, guaranteed
Releasable: N/A; Tradable: Now

Jameis Winston: 1 year, $4M, guaranteed

Dorian Thompson-Robinson: 3 years, $3.1M (non-guaranteed)

Tyler Huntley:  1 year, $1.3M ($470k guaranteed)

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott: 1 year, $34M ($5M guaranteed)

Trey Lance: 1 year, $5.3M, guaranteed (+2025 option)

Cooper Rush: 1 year, $2.25M (non-guaranteed)

Denver Broncos

Jarrett Stidham: 1 year, $6M ($2M guaranteed)

Zach Wilson: 1 year, $2.7M, guaranteed (+2025 option)

Ben DiNucci: 1 year, $985k

Detroit Lions

Jared Goff: 1 year, $27.3M ($5M guaranteed)

Hendon Hooker: 3 years, $3.8M (non-guaranteed)

Nate Sudfeld: 1 year, $1.2M ($300k guaranteed)

Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love: 1 year, $11M (guaranteed)

Sean Clifford: 3 years, $3.1M (non-guaranteed)

Alex McGough: 1 year, $915k

Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud: 3 years, $12.1M, guaranteed (+2027 option)

Case Keenum: 1 year, $3M ($1M guaranteed)

Davis Mills: 1 year, $3.1M (non-guaranteed)

Tim Boyle: 1 year, $1.1M (non-guaranteed)

Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson: 3 years, $11.4M, guaranteed (+2027 option)

Joe Flacco: 1 year, $4.5M (guaranteed)

Sam Ehlinger: 1 year, $1M (non-guaranteed)

Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence: 1 year, $5.6M, guaranteed (+2027 option)

Mac Jones: 1 year, $2.7M, guaranteed (+2027 option)

C.J. Beathard: 1 year, $1.9M (non-guaranteed)

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes: 8 years, $361.5M; 4 years, $205.4M practical
Releasable: After 2025; Tradable: Now

Carson Wentz: 1 year, $3.3M ($2.2M guaranteed)

Ian Book: 1 year, $985k

Chris Oladokun: 1 year, $805k

Las Vegas Raiders

Aidan O'Connell: 3 years, $3.1M (non-guaranteed)

Gardner Minshew: 2 years, $25M ($15M guaranteed)

Anthony Brown: 1 year, $915k

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert: 6 years, $279.1M; 5 years, $228.6M practical
Releasable: After 2026; Tradable: After 2026

Easton Stick: 1 year, $2.6M ($1.4M guaranteed)

Max Duggan: 1 year, $795k

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford: 3 years, $94M; 1 year, $41M practical
Releasable: After 2024; Tradable: Now

Jimmy Garoppolo: 1 year, $3.1M ($3M guaranteed)

Stetson Bennett: 3 years, $3M (non-guaranteed)

Dresser Winn: 2 years, $1.7M (non-guaranteed)

Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa: 1 year, $23M (guaranteed)

Mike White: 1 year, $3.5M (non-guaranteed)

Skylar Thompson: 2 years, $2M (non-guaranteed)

Minnesota Vikings

Sam Darnold: 1 year, $10M ($8.75M guaranteed)

Nick Mullens: 1 year, $1.9M (non-guaranteed)

Jaren Hall: 3 years, $3M (non-guaranteed)

New England Patriots

#3 Overall Pick: 4 years, $36M, guaranteed (+2028 option)

Jacoby Brissett: 1 year, $8M ($6.5M guaranteed)

Bailey Zappe: 1 year, $985k

Nathan Rourke: 1 year, $915k

New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr: 3 years, $120M; 1 year, $40M practical
Releasable: After 2024; Tradable: Now

Nathan Peterman: 1 year, $1.3M ($80k guaranteed)

Jake Haener: 3 years, $3.1M (non-guaranteed)

Kellen Mond: 1 year, $985k

New York Giants

Daniel Jones: 3 years, $114M; 1 year, $36M practical

Drew Lock: 1 year, $5M (guaranteed)

Tommy DeVito: 1 year, $915k

New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers: 2 years, $75.6M; 1 year, $38.1M practical

Tyrod Taylor: 2 years, $12M ($8.5M guaranteed)

Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts: 5 years, $235M; 4 years, $184M practical
Releasable: After 2027; Tradable: Next Summer

Kenny Pickett: 2 years, $4.6M, guaranteed (+2026 option)

Will Grier: 1 year, $1.1M (non-guaranteed)

Tanner McKee: 3 years, $3.1M (non-guaranteed)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Russell Wilson: 1 year, $1.21M (guaranteed)

Justin Fields: 1 year, $3.2M, guaranteed (+2025 option)

Kyle Allen: 1 year, $1.3M ($167k guaranteed)

San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy: 2 years, $2M (non-guaranteed)

Joshua Dobbs: 1 year, $2.2M (guaranteed)

Brandon Allen: 1 year, $2M ($700k guaranteed)

Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith: 2 years, $47.5M; 1 year, $22.5M practical

Sam Howell: 2 years, $2M (non-guaranteed)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield: 3 years, $100M; 1 year, $40M practical

John Wolford: 1 year, $1.3M ($400k guaranteed)

Kyle Trask: 1 year $1.4M (non-guaranteed)

Tennessee Titans

Will Levis: 3 years, $4.85M ($4M guaranteed)

Mason Rudolph: 1 year, $2.8M ($2.7M guaranteed)

Malik Willis: 2 years, $2.5M (non-guaranteed)

Washington Commanders

#2 Overall Pick: 4 years, $37M, guaranteed (+2028 option)

Marcus Mariota: 1 year, $6M ($5.4M guaranteed)

Jeff Driskel: 1 year, $1.1M (non-guaranteed)

Jake Fromm: 1 year, $985k

The Bills pulled a (mild) April stunner in agreeing to trade WR1 Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans, sending a somewhat settled NFL world back into a bit of a frenzy. Buffalo also attached a 2025 5th round pick, & a 2024 6th round pick to Diggs in the move, acquiring a 2025 2nd round pick as the lone asset coming back. The trade comes loaded with impacts from every angle, and we’ll dive into them all here.

Initial Thoughts

One of the larger reasons many assumed Diggs’ role with Buffalo was secure for the 2024 season was his $31.096M trade dead cap figure. This number is comprised of three years of unallocated signing bonus proration, 4 years of unallocated option bonus proration, & 4 years of unallocated salary conversion proration. In other words, this isn’t a number that the Bills can have another team “pay down” for them in any manner. Buffalo has paid these three bonuses to Stefon Diggs, and must now take on the subsequent salary cap for it.

Had this trade been processed after June 1st, Buffalo could have split this $31M figure up into $8.84M for the upcoming 2024 season, then $22.2M for the 2025 campaign. But there are two reasons the Bills opted not to go this route:

First, the 2024 NFL draft is just 22 days away, and it’s loaded with highly projected WR talent. Adding a 2nd round pick to their arsenal now bolsters their ability to move around as needed to ensure they lock in a viable addition to the WR room going forward.

Second, Bills GM Brandon Beane has been fairly transparent in using the word “reset” in regards to the 2024 season. Some have taken this to mean that the Bills no longer consider themselves viable contenders, but the word can & should also be applied to the financial side of the Bills’ process. Buffalo has been outspoken about offering more than few of their core players “pay cut or else” ultimatums this offseason. A few have bought in (Von Miller, Rasul Douglas, Dawson Knox), while others have fallen off of the roster (Mitch Morse, Deonte Harty, Jordan Poyer). Taking the $31M hit all in 2024 coincides with Buffalo’s plan to purge on the fly, opening up 2025 to be a much more aggressive “buyers” window for them.

Financial Impact to Buffalo

Diggs’ $31.096M dead cap hit for 2024 means the Bills took a $3.2M cap loss in processing this trade. It also represents the largest single-season dead cap hit by any non QB, and the 6th biggest in NFL History.

Largest Single Season Dead Cap Hits

• Russell Wilson, $53M
• Matt Ryan, $40.5M
• Aaron Rodgers, $40.3M
• Tom Brady, $35.1M
• Carson Wentz, $33.8M
• Stefon Diggs, $31M

The dead hit also represents the largest cap hit on the current 2024 Bills Salary Cap Table, surpassing Josh Allen’s $30.3M number.

With all this said, the Bills immediately free up $27.3M of 2025 cap space per this move, not to mention shedding $19M of cash set to be paid out to Diggs for the upcoming 2024 season. The Bills now head toward the draft with around $4M of Top 51 cap space. They’ll open up another $10.2M of room on June 2nd after CB Tre’Davious White’s Post June 1st Designation fully processes.

In total, Buffalo paid Stefon Diggs $78.9M for 4 years of service, reeling in 445 catches (37 touchdowns) in 66 regular season games for the Bills.

Financial Impact to Houston

The Texans acquire Diggs with 4 years, $75M remaining on his current contract, but only $18.5M (all in 2024) is fully guaranteed right now. The deal very much becomes year-to-year after the upcoming season, and if the worst case scenario unfolds over the next calendar year, Houston can walk away from the contract taking on zero dead cap next March (assuming no salary cap conversions are processed on the 2024 salary).

Stefon Diggs Traded Contract
2024: $19.005M ($18.5M guaranteed)
2025: $18.505M ($3.5M guarantees next March)
2026: $19.6M
2027: $18M

Digg’s $19M cap hit becomes Houston’s 2nd largest figure for the upcoming season, behind only OT Laremy Tunsil’s $25.8M number.

Houston sees its Top 51 cap space drop down to around $12M with the acquisition of Diggs, making it likely that they’ll process a salary conversion or two (or move on from a contract or two) in the coming weeks. 

The Free Agent Wide Receiver Market

Is there a viable replacement for Stefon Diggs left in free agency? No. But there are at least a name or two worth staring at until your eyes cross.

Odell Beckham Jr, Tyler Boyd, Michael Gallup, Hunter Renfroe, Michael Thomas, Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Full List of Available WRs

The Wide Receiver Trade Market

Tee Higgins (CIN, 25)

Easily the “best” option reportedly available, but it seems highly unlikely that the Bengals would accept any offer here that bolstered Buffalo’s chances. It’s not impossible, but it seems close. We’ve got Higgins on a 4 year, $104M extension right now.

Allen Lazard (NYJ, 28)

Not exactly what the Bills need in terms of fit, and the fully guaranteed $10M salary for 2024 certainly doesn’t help. This doesn’t feel like a move any NFL team will be rushing to make.

Brandon Aiyuk (SF, 26)

Now we’re onto something. Nobody outside of the Niners front office really knows just how real the exit rumors this offseason are. Aiyuk may be looking for a larger role and subsequently a better extension offer, but San Francisco isn’t obligated to make a move if they don’t want to. For now, he carries a $14.1M fully guaranteed option salary in 2024 (far more salary cap than the Bills can acquire at the moment). Would that 2025 2nd round pick be enough to peak San Fran’s interest? Spotrac puts Aiyuk on a 4 year, $96M extension at the moment.

Concluding Thoughts

One of the bigger takeaways here isn’t so much the teams or people involved, but rather the numbers attached to this transaction. Would the Bills have pulled this trigger if the league salary cap hadn’t ballooned even more than front offices were expecting it to?

The fact is, the health of the league, and savviness of NFL GMs & salary cap manager, & the recent bolstered depth of NFL draft classes (especially at the WR position), have afforded teams the ability to stretch their limits with situations like this. 5 years ago, this trade isn’t even a thought from the team’s perspective.

Furthermore, Buffalo’s “reset” plan for the 2024 season is an indication that Brandon Beane is serious about not wanting to run his franchise in a true “continually push cap down the line” manner. He’s shown us in certain instances that he’ll convert a salary or two to make a move work in his favor - but the teams that truly make conversions their lifeline (Philly, New Orleans) simply never have an offseason like the Bills are going through right now.

If the Bills can remain relevant in the AFC (or even the division), it’ll be another checkmark next to this roster construction template on the list, showing that dead cap isn’t something to be ashamed of (in all cases), rather a signal that change is necessary, and that making more correct decisions than incorrect ones can keep a team “in the window” - despite what the masses may outwardly state.

Opening Day is upon us (amidst the rain for much of the east coast), and so too is our annual MLB Opening Day Financial Primer. We’ll recap the signings & trades from the offseason that was, project payrolls for each team going forward, and point out notable free agents for 2025 as well.

Notable Free Agent Signings

From Shohei Ohtani to Jordan Montgomery, this past winter saw plenty of eyebrow-raising moments for one reason or another. Spotrac details the biggest free agent contracts in a deep dive piece here: Recapping MLB Free Agency

2023-24 Free Agency Totals

With the regular season now here, we can put close on a 5 month free agency window that included 130 major league contracts for a combined total of $2.88 billion. If we exclude the massive pay days for Shohei Ohtani ($700M) & Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($325M), this figure drops down to $1.86 billion across 128 contracts.

Last 5 Free Agency Totals
2024: $2.88B
2023: $3.9B
2022: $3.2B
2021: $1.4B
2020: $2.1B

2024 MLB FREE AGENCY

Offseason Spending

When factoring in free agent signings, internal contract extensions,  & arbitration results from this past winter, these days led the way in terms of 2023-24 offseason spending.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers, $1.26B
2. Kansas City Royals, $413M
3. San Francisco Giants, $361M
4. Philadelphia Phillies, $341M
5. Houston Astros, $273M

These teams kept their foot on the brake pedal this winter…

• Oakland Athletics, $26.7M
• Minnesota Twins, $27.3M
• Washington Nationals, $28.2M

VIEW MORE OFFSEASON TOTALS

Offseason Trades

87 trades hit the books between November 1st & March 28th, most of them on the smaller side, plenty of them including cash considerations to offset another move, but a few of them certainly seem impactful on the surface:

Dodgers Acquire SP Tyler Glasnow
This seems like it could very well be an “everybody wins” move out of the gate. Tampa Bay was never going to live with a $25M salary for Glasnow (or anybody for that matter), and the Dodgers had an opening to take on a high-level starting pitcher this winter (they ended up with 2). LA extended Glasnow to a 5 year, $136.5M contract upon acquiring him. Pepiot made the Rays’ rotation out of camp.


Yankees Acquire OF Juan Soto
A move that has long been rumored finally came to fruition. Soto will spend his walk year in a park that will have a lot of trouble holding his fly balls. Not a bad way to lead into your first big pay day. Michael King is already settled into the Padres rotation.


Orioles Acquire SP Corbin Burnes
The Orioles didn’t make the free agency splash some were hoping for, but bringing in Burnes to play out his walk season in Baltimore is plenty to hang your hat on (for now). This trade included a rare competitive balance draft pick move (the only type of draft pick allowed to be acquired in MLB).


Padres Acquire SP Dylan Cease
Despite rumors all over the east coast, San Diego swooped in late to acquire Cease from the White Sox. Cease has two more arbitration seasons (2024/2025) ahead of him, making this one of the more impactful acquisitions of the winter.

VIEW ALL TRADES

Opening Day Payrolls

Spotrac is now projecting out full tax payrolls for each team (including their 40-man allocations, minor league salaries, retained salary, etc…). The first tax threshold for the 2024 season comes in at $237M. Any team above this figure is considered a tax-paying team, and there are different levels of penalties based on where a team ends up with the payroll at the year-end. Those thresholds fall at $237M, $257M, $277M, & $297M this season.

Based on our Opening Day estimates, the Mets are set to carry a $336.5M tax payroll into the season, $14M more than the 2nd place Dodgers ($322M), & $27M more than the 3rd place Yankees ($309M). In total, 9 teams are currently projected as a tax team for 2024.

VIEW TAX PAYROLLS

In terms of cash spending, the Yankees ($303M) enter the season with the highest allocation, slightly higher than their cross-town rival Mets ($301M), and the heavily-invested Dodgers ($295M). The Marlins ($100M), Pirates ($92M), and of course Athletics ($66M) enter the year at the bottom of the barrel for now.

VIEW CASH PAYROLLS

2023 vs. 2024 Opening Day Tax Payrolls

Opening Day Starting Pitchers

Getting the nod to take the hill for the first game is still an honor (even if injuries impact so many teams in this regard out of the gate). We've collected the official list of Opening Day starters, making note of each player's salary for the upcoming season. The pitchers range from Tyler Glasnow's $25M with the Dodgers, down to Josiah Gray & Cole Ragan's near minimum salaries with the Nationals & Royals respectively. VIEW 2024 STARTING PITCHER SALARIES

Minimum Salary

The minimum salary for the 2024 MLB regular season comes in at $740,000. The most recent CBA instituted $20,000 increases annually on this figure. Nearly every 1st year player will earn this (or a prorated amount of it) salary for the upcoming season. Most players still in the pre-arbitration portion of their careers will earn at or slightly above this number until they become arbitration eligible in their 4th service year. VIEW MORE

Trade Deadline

This year’s trade deadline is set for Tuesday July 30th, and could include plenty of firepower based on the below list of notable expiring contracts.

Notable 2025 Free Agents

It's never to early to start thinking about next winter. These players are on the must-watch list as they enter a contract season in 2024. VIEW ALL 2025 MLB FREE AGENTS

Starting Pitchers

Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Max Fried, Jack Flaherty, Luis Severino, Max Fried, Nick Pivetta, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea

Relief Pitchers

Paul Sewald, AJ Minter, Scott Barlow, Ryan Pressly

Infielders

Pete Alonso (1B), Gleyber Torres (2B), Alex Bregman (3B), Christian Walker (1B), Willy Adames (SS), Paul Goldschmidt (1B), Danny Jansen (C), Yoan Moncada (3B), Cody Bellinger (1B)

Outfielders

Juan Soto, Teoscar Hernandez, Anthony Santander, Alex Verdugo, Tyler O'Neill

Unlike the NFL or NBA where free agency is basically a 48-hour television show, MLB’s offseason and subsequent free agency comes at us like a slow-dripping faucet. With Opening Day now upon us, we’ll dive into every free agent contract signed this past winter that carries a total value guarantee of at least $25M, including all of the conditions, options, bells, & whistles included in each.

RELATED: MLB Free Agent Contracts

Shohei Ohtani (DH/SP, Dodgers)

10 years, $700,000,000

Ohtani landed a truly historic contract with the Dodgers back on December 9th, including a mesmerizing $680M of deferred cash. The result? A $70M per year contract now accounts for just $46,081,476 on LAD’s annual tax payroll for the next 10 seasons. Ohtani will earn $2M cash per year through 2033, then $68M cash each July 1st from 2034-2043. In addition, Ohtani has secured a full no trade clause, & he will be granted the ability to opt-out of the contract if controlling owner Mark Walter, or President Andrew Friedman are no longer with the Dodgers. He may also have the right to contest his future on the contract if he feels the Dodgers are not actively trying to keep a competitive roster around him at any point in time.

You know, but other than that, this is just your typical free agent contract.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP, Dodgers)

12 years, $325,000,000

The biggest international fish in the free agency pool also landed in LA, shattering previous contract values for players coming from outside leagues. Yamamoto’s deal comes with $55M cash in 2024 ($50M signing bonus plus $5M salary). When combined with a $50.625M posting fee that the Dodgers paid out to his former club Orix, this becomes a $105.625M investment for the upcoming season. Again - historic. Yamamoto will see $155M over the first 6 seasons of the contract before a player opt-out becomes available to him. There’s another opportunity to bail out after the 2031 season (8 years, $213,000,000). Yamamoto enters 2024 as the 9th highest average paid starting pitcher in baseball.

Aaron Nola (SP, Phillies)

7 years, $172,000,000

The Phillies wasted no time bringing back their former 1st round pick, locking in Nola through his age-37 season in 2031. There are no options, no opt-outs, and the 30-year-old secured a full no trade clause with the deal. It’s also a nice and easy $24,571,429 per year structure. Nola enters the 2024 season as the 13th highest average paid starting pitcher in baseball.

Jung-hoo Lee (OF, Giants)

6 years, $113,000,000

The 25-year-old leaves South Korea for a deal that pays him $12M in 2024 ($5M signing bonus, $7M salary). In addition, the Giants sent Lee’s former team (Kiwoom Heroes) an $18.825M posting fee, making this a $30M investment for the upcoming season. Lee will secure $72M over the next 4 seasons before an opportunity to opt-out becomes available. He enters April as the 5th highest average paid center fielder in baseball.

Josh Hader (RP, Astros)

5 years, $95,000,000

After plenty of teams chimed in, Hader opted to join one of the best teams in baseball, further fortifying a Houston roster that has annually been in contention. Hader secures a flat $19M each year through 2028 (his age 34 campaign), and a full no trade clause to help dictate his future. He becomes the 2nd highest average paid closer in MLB history, behind only Edwin Diaz ($20.4M).

Cody Bellinger (1B/OF, Cubs)

3 years, $80,000,000

After securing $17.5M in what was deemed his “showcase season” in 2023, Belling returns to the Cubs on a contract that now at least provides him a multi-year guarantee - if he so chooses. This 3 year, $80M contract contains a player opt-out after 1 year, $27.5M (+ a $2.5M buyout), then another player opt-out after 2 years, $55M (+a $5M buyout). So, in essence this is either a 1 year, $30M deal, or a 2 year, $60M deal, or a 3 year, $80M deal. 

Eduardo Rodriguez (SP, Diamondbacks)

4 years, $80,000,000

After shunning the Dodgers at the deadline, E-Rod joined another NL West team this past winter. The $80M guarantee consists of $76M across the next 4 seasons, plus a $6M buyout on a potential vesting option for the 2028 campaign. In full, this contract could max out at 5 years, $93M including innings incentives. Somewhat surprisingly, Rodriguez will earn the same $14M salary in 2024 that he secured with the Tigers in 2023.

Sonny Gray (SP, Cardinals)

3 years, $75,000,000

It’s been a rollercoaster ride of a career for Gray, who just completed a 5 year, $48M contract with Cincinnati/Minnesota combined, but the now 34-year-old will be asked to step in and solidify a shaky Cardinals rotation. His $75M guaranteed consists of $70M over the next 3 seasons, plus a $5M buyout on a 2027 club option. If exercised, this becomes a 4 year, $100M deal in full.

Blake Snell (SP, Giants)

2 years, $62,000,000

Despite early reports that multiple teams were offering blockbuster deals to Snell, the Boras-led pitcher opted for a short-term cash grab with the up and coming Giants. This is a 1 year, $32M contract with a player opt-out available after 2024. $17M of that $32M comes via a signing bonus which is deferred until January of 2026, lowering his present day tax salary from $31M to $29.7M. If he opts-in to the remaining 1 year, $30M, $15M of that salary is deferred to 2027. It’s a lot of ifs and maybes for arguably the best available pitcher on the open market this winter.

Matt Chapman (3B, Giants)

3 years, $54,000,000

Reportedly seeking a 5-6 year guarantee this winter, Chapman settled for a 3 year deal that includes a 4th year mutual option - but also contains player opt-outs after every season. Taking that into consideration, this becomes either a 1 year, $20M contract, a 2 year, $38M contract, a 3 year, $54M contract, or a 4 year, $73M contract. There’s a world where he and the Giants just led this one ride all the way out.

Seth Lugo (SP, Royals)

3 years, $45,000,000

Lugo declined a $7.5M player option with the Padres for 2024, instead securing $45M fully guaranteed through the 2026 season. He’ll have the ability to opt-out after 2 years, $30M if he feels a multi-year-guarantee opportunity could exist going forward.

Jeimer Candelario (3B, Reds)

3 years, $45,000,000

After a wildly successful 2023 both with Washington & the Cubs that earned him $5M total, Candelario scored a major raise that includes $72M through 2026, plus a $3M buyout on a 2027 team option. In full, this contract could max out at 4 years, $60M.

Jordan Hicks (SP, Giants)

4 years, $44,000,000

Despite just 8 career starts, the Giants handed Hicks $44M fully guaranteed this winter to join their rotation going forward. The 27-year-old made 65 appearances last season with the Cardinals and Blue Jays, posting a solid 3.29 ERA for his efforts. He can add $2M per year based on innings pitched, raising the max value of this deal up to $52M over 4 seasons.

Jorge Soler (DH, Giants)

3 years, $42,000,000

Soler declined a $9M player option with Miami for the 2024 season, instead locking in $42M through 2026, including $16M for the upcoming campaign ($9M signing bonus, $7M salary). The barely 32-year-old should have plenty of home run swings left in the tank even after this deal expires.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF, Diamondbacks)

3 years, $42,000,000

Gurriel rejoins Arizona on a $42M guarantee that consists of $37M through the 2026 season, plus a $5M buyout on a $14M club option. This makes this deal a 4 year, $51M contract for max purposes, but a player opt-out opportunity after 2025 also leaves the possibility for a 2 year, $24M scenario as well.

Lucas Giolito (SP, Red Sox)

2 years, $38,500,000

After bouncing around a bit the past 2 seasons, Giolio was looking to secure his career in Boston, potentially as a top of the rotation place setter. Those hopes were quickly dashed when the 29-year-old suffered an elbow injury that required immediate surgery. Contractually, this is a 2 year, $37M contract plus a $1.5M buyout on a $14M vesting option in 2026. Giolito had also secured a player opt-out after the 2024 season, but that now seems highly unlikely.

Marcus Stroman (SP, Yankees)

2 years, $37,000,000

Stroman’s stock dipped down the stretch in 2023, leaving many to believe that he’d opt-in to a $21M salary with the Cubs for 2024. He declined it, securing at least $37M over the next 2 seasons. If he pitches 140 innings this upcoming season, an $18M player option will be tacked on for 2026.

Rhys Hoskins (1B, Brewers)

2 years, $34,000,000

An ACL tear early on in 2023 devastated what was building up to be a really nice first run into free agency for Hoskins. He instead opts for an identical salary to his 2023 payout ($12M), with the ability to control his destiny thereafter. This is a 1 year, $12M contract out of the gate, a 2 year, $34M contract if he opts-in, with the potential for a 3 year, $48M deal if both sides agree to run this thing all the way out.

Robert Stephenson (RP, Angels)

3 years, $33,000,000

Stephenson has been inconsistent at best over 8 MLB seasons, but the Angels are (clearly) banking on him to settle in as a late game (possible closer) reliever for the foreseeable future. The 31-year-old will secure $11M in each of the next 3 seasons.

Michael Wacha (SP, Royals)

2 years, $32,000,000

Wacha declined a 2 year, $32M option in San Diego for a 2 year, $32M contract in Kansas City. Maybe the nice weather was too boring for him? The 32-year-old can opt-out after 1 year, $16M.

Reynaldo López (SP, Braves)

3 years, $30,000,000

Despite 18 starts over the past 4 seasons in Chicago/Cleveland, Atlanta brought in Lopez to compete for their 5th rotation spot. The $30M guarantee consists of $26M through 2026, plus a $4M buyout on a club option in 2027. The contract can max out at 4 years, $34M.

Sean Manaea (SP, Mets)

2 years, $28,000,000

Manaea declined a $12.5M option in San Francisco to secure a multi-year guarantee this winter. He’ll earn $14.5M for the upcoming season in New York, then can opt-out of the final 1 year, $13.5M if he wishes. 

Nick Martinez (SP, Reds)

2 years, $26,000,000

Martinez has been a hybrid pitcher for the better part of 6 seasons, now making 9 starts but 63 total appearances with San Diego last year. He declined a 2 year, $32M player option with the Padres this past winter, but couldn’t find stronger value on the open market. A good 2024 in Cincinnati will give him a chance to opt-out after 1 year, $14M, and reset his financial value.

Jordan Montgomery (SP, Diamondbacks)

1 year, $25,000,000

Better late than never. After much deliberation, Montgomery joined the defending runner-up D-Backs on a 1 year, $25M guarantee that vest to 2 years, $50M in total through 2025. If he posts 10 starts in 2024, Montgomery will have the ability to opt-out of the contract and hit the open market again next winter. If he decides to hang around, the 2025 salary is conditioned as follows: $20M with 10-17 starts this season, $22.5M with 18-22 starts this season, $25M with 23+ starts this season.

The first 24-48 hours of the NFL Free Agent Frenzy is always a whirlwind, and with it come a flurry of contract reports. Now that the dust has settled a bit, we’ll dive into every free agent contract with a total value of at least $30M, detailing the guaranteed portion of the deal, and a more practical set of terms for each.

Kirk Cousins (QB, Falcons)

4 years, $180,000,000

The largest total value contract in free agent history comes with $100M guaranteed, $90M at signing, and $62.5M cash in 2024. It’s a 2 year, $100M contract out of the gate, with 3 years, $135M in place for practical purposes. Early $10M roster bonuses in 2026 & 2027 offer early payment or team decision making at the back end of this contract. At $45M per year, Cousins is now the 8th highest average paid QB, while his $100M guaranteed ranks 12th.

Christian Wilkins (DT, Raiders

4 years, $110,000,000

Wilkins joins the Raiders on $57.5M fully guaranteed at signing (2nd among DTs), with another $25.25M set to lock in next March. This is a 3 year, $84.25M contract for practical purposes, with no early vesting guarantee or roster bonus in the final 1 year, $25.75M. The deal makes Wilkins the 3rd highest average paid interior defender.

Robert Hunt (G, Panthers)

5 years, $100,000,000

Carolina spent big to bolster their offensive line this week, handing Hunt $44M fully guaranteed at signing, with another $10M set to lock in next March. Technically the Panthers could walk away from this contract after 2 years, $54M, but a 3 year, $63M outcome is much more practical. The final 2 years, $37M are extremely fluffy, offering no early vesting guarantee or roster bonus. Hunt is now tied as the 3rd highest average paid guard in football, while his $63M of practical guarantee is most all-time at the position.

Calvin Ridley (WR, Titans)

4 years, $92,000,000

Ridley secures $46.9M fully guaranteed at signing through the 2025 season, and $3M of his 2026 compensation locks in next March. In this regard, there's a world where Tennessee buys him out in March of 2026 at 2 years, $50M, but it's more practical that Ridley sees 3 years, $69.75M on this deal. This becomes far & away the largest free agent WR contract to post this offseason.

Jonathan Greenard (DE, Vikings)

4 years, $76,000,000

Following an outstanding walk season in Houston, Greenard attempts to fill the shoes vacated by Danielle Hunter in Minnesota. Early reports tag a $42M full guarantee on this contract, but the full structure has not yet been announced. The $19M per year average currently ranks 16th among edge defenders.

Xavier McKinney (S, Packers)

4 years, $67,000,000

As with nearly all Packers’ contracts, McKinney’s only upfront guarantee stems from a $23 million signing bonus. The 24-year-old gets over $25M cash in 2024, but the remaining 3 years, $42M becomes a year-to-year decision for Green Bay. $8.5M March roster bonuses in each of 2025 & 2026 offer a little stability in the next few offseasons. At $16.75M per year, McKinney’s contract makes him the 5th highest average paid safety in football.

Leonard Williams (DE, Seahawks)

3 years, $64,500,000

Williams returns to Seattle at a reported $43.85M guarantee, though just $26.15M of that is fully guaranteed at signing. While it’s highly likely that the 30-year-old sees at least 2 years, $47.85M out of this new deal, it’s possible for Seattle to walk away after just 1 year, $27M. 

Mike Onwenu (G, Patriots)

3 years, $57,000,000

The Patriots retained their 2020 6th round pick for at least another 2 years, $39.5M. $36.5M of that is fully guaranteed at signing, leaving 1 year, $17.5M of “fluff” on the back end of this contract. At $19M per year, Onwenu is now the 5th highest average paid guard in football, while his $36.5M of full guarantee chimes in at 8th overall.

Damien Lewis (G, Panthers)

4 years, $53,000,000

Lewis joins Carolina on a $26.2M full guarantee through the 2025 season, making the final 2 years, $26M of this contract completely up in the air. At $13.25M per year, the Panthers now have two of the Top 16 average paid & guaranteed guards in football.

Bryce Huff (OLB, Eagles)

3 years, $51,100,000

The Eagles made Huff a Top 20 paid edge defender on this 3 year contract that reportedly includes $34M fully guaranteed. Full details aren’t yet available, but a double bonus structure 2 year guarantee seems to fit the Philly bill here.

Jonah Jackson (G, Rams)

3 years, $51,000,000

Jackson secures $25M fully guaranteed at signing, which includes half of his 2025 compensation. The other half locks in next March, setting him up for 2 years, $34M for practical purposes. The final $17M on this deal is up in the air, though an $8M March 2026 roster bonus helps push things along. At $17M per year, Jackson is the 10th highest average paid guard in football.

Arik Armstead (DE, Jaguars)

3 years, $51,000,000

Armstead was designated a Post June 1st release by San Francisco this week, but wasted no time locking in a healthy deal elsewhere. Full details are still TBD, but it’s safe to assume there’s a near $35M guarantee on this contract.

Lloyd Cushenberry (C, Titans)

4 years, $50,000,000

Cushenberry represents a solid upgrade to the middle of Will Levis’ line, securing $26M fully guaranteed at signing, with another $4M locking in next March. It's a 2 year, $30M contract from the onset, with 2 years, $20M up in the air thereafter. Cushenberry now ties for the 4th largest average salary among centers, while his $30M practically guaranteed ranks 2nd.

Danielle Hunter (ED, Texans)

2 years, $49,000,000

One of the strongest deals to hit the books this week, Hunter secured $48M fully guaranteed over the next 2 seasons. Only a pair of annual $500,000 per game active bonuses set him apart from a fully guaranteed contract here. The 30-year-old will see $29.5M cash this year, & $19.5M in 2025.

Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers)

4 years, $48,000,000

Aaron Jones out, Josh Jacobs in, and in true Packers fashion, it’s a 1 year guarantee, plus three years of we’ll see. Jacobs secures a $12.5M signing bonus, and $14.8M total in 2024. The remaining 3 years, $33.2M of this contract go year-to-year, though an early March roster bonus ($5.9M) likely secures this deal as 2 years, $23M - but it doesn’t have to. The $12M APY on this contract makes Jacobs the 6th highest average paid running back.

Patrick Queen (LB, Steelers)

3 years, $41,000,000

The first real head-scratcher on the list. Queen was the top off-ball linebacker on the open market, putting up a huge season alongside Roquan Smith in Baltimore. He joins linebacker U on essentially a 1 year, $13.84M contract (as the Steelers do not guarantee future salary in their contracts). The remaining 2 years, $27.16M of this contract will be year-to-year. Queen chimes in as the 6th highest average paid off-ball linebacker with this deal.

Darnell Mooney (WR, Falcons)

3 years, $39,000,000

Mooney leaves Chicago for Atlanta to begin the Kirk Cousins regime. The former 5th round pick secures $26M fully guaranteed at signing on this contract, making the next 2 years, $27M a virtual lock. The remaining 1 year, $11.98M for 2026 is up in the air. Mooney ties Gabe Davis as the 22nd highest average paid WR with this deal.

Gabriel Davis (WR, Jaguars)

3 years, $39,000,000

Despite identical terms, Davis secured $2M less guaranteed, & $1M less to be earned through 2025 than Darnell Mooney signed for in Atlanta. Still, the Jags may have scored a value signing here, as Davis will step into that WR1B role recently vacated by Calvin Ridley - who just secured $50M guaranteed in Tennessee. Davis’ contract is a 2 for $26M deal, with $13M of fluff.

Grover Stewart (DT, Colts)

3 years, $39,000,000

Stewart returns to the Colts on a $25.7M guarantee, though only $17.9M of that is fully guaranteed at the time of signing. Still, with ? of his 2025 compensation locked in right now, we’ll consider this a 2 year, $26.75M contract for practical purposes, with the remaining $12.25M up in the air. A $13M APY for Stewart ranks him 18th among interior defenders.

Saquon Barkley (RB, Eagles)

3 years, $37,750,000

Barkley secured good money from a good team - a rare win for the running back position on the open market. All of the $24.5M due across the next two seasons is fully guaranteed, and $1.5M of his 2026 salary is locked in at the time of signing as well. It’s a 2 year, $26M fully guaranteed contract for one the higher ceiling playmakers in all of football. The $12.5M APY makes Barkley the 4th highest average paid running back in football.

Chidobe Awuzie (CB, Titans)

3 years, $36,000,000

Awuzie joins a Tennessee team that has been as aggressive as any to start the new league year. He slots in as the projected starting LCB for 2024, scoring $19M fully guaranteed on his new contract. It’s a 2 year, $24M deal for practical purposes, with the remaining $12M (his age 31 season), a veritable option for now. Awuzie’s near $23M practical guarantee ranks 15th among signed cornerbacks.

Azeez Al-Shaair (LB, Texans)

3 years, $34,000,000

The Texans’ new middle linebacker comes in at $21.5M fully guaranteed at signing, including $13M for the upcoming season. It’s a 2 years, $22.5M contract for practical purposes, with the final $11.5M up in the air.

Dorance Armstrong (DE, Commanders)

3 years, $33,000,000

Armstrong & also newly signed Dante Fowler Jr. project to start on the edge of the Commander’s line. The 26-year-old secured $16.1M fully guaranteed at signing, all in 2024, making this a glorified 1 year, $16.8M contract until further notice. Armstrong’s $6M salary for 2025 becomes fully guaranteed next March, so there will be an early decision to be made at that point.

Justin Jones (DT, Cardinals)

3 years, $31,165,000

Jones leaves the Bears for the Cardinals, who hand out an extremely aggressive 79% guarantee at signing on this contract. All of Jones’ 2024 & 2025 salaries are fully guaranteed, as well as $5M of his 2026 salary. If Arizona wants to walk away after 2025, they’ll owe him that $5M as a buyout, securing at the very least, $26.8M of this contract.

Frankie Luvu (LB, Commanders)

3 years, $31,000,000

Luvu & Bobby Wagner should help redefine this Commander’s linebacking core for the upcoming season, with new Head Coach Dan Quinn clearly making it a focal point of the offseason. Washington could make this a 1 year, $15M contract and nothing more if they need, but for practical purposes this should work out to 2 years, $22M at the bare minimum. The remaining $9M on this contract is up for grabs, though $1M of it comes in the form of a March 2026 roster bonus.

Jonah Williams (OT, Cardinals)

2 years, $30,000,000

The Cardinals released longtime OT D.J. Humphries in correspondence with this move, putting Williams and youngster Paris Johnson in line to bookend the O-Line in 2024. Williams secures $19M fully guaranteed at signing, and while Arizona could technically make this a 1 year, $19.61M contract, it's highly likely that he either sees both years of this deal, or is extended out of it after the 2024 season.

Kenny Moore (CB, Colts)

3 years, $30,000,000

The powers that be made it clear that Moore had signed the “largest ever contract for a nickel”, yet still haven’t disclosed the guaranteed figure for the deal. Generally speaking this isn’t a great sign, but crazier things have happened. 

Jon Runyan (G, Giants)

3 years, $30,00,000

Runyan leaves Green Bay on a $17M guarantee with the Giants, including more than half of his 2025 salary. The projected starting right guard for NY should see 2 years, $20.75M out of this contract, with $9.25M up in the air thereafter.

Chris Jones & the Kansas City Chiefs agreed on a blockbuster extension Sunday night that puts to bed any question about his immediate future.

Total Value

At 5 years, $158.75M, this contract becomes the 13th highest total value deal currently on the books in the NFL, sliding in between Daniel Jones’ deal in NY, & Derek Carr’s contract in New Orleans. In terms of non-quarterback contracts however, this contract chimes in 2nd only to Nick Bosa’s $170M blockbuster in San Francisco.

The 5 year term takes Jones through his age 34 campaign,setting this contract up to be a potential career-finisher for the future Hall of Famer.

Average Annual Salary

At $31.75M per year, Chris Jones’ new deal makes him the 18th highest average paid player in the NFL (for a minute). Only Nick Bosa and his mega deal in San Fran surpasses this number right now.

Highest Average Paid Non-QBs

1. Nick Bosa, $34M
2. Chris Jones, $31.75M
3. Aaron Donald, $31.6M
4. Tyreek Hill, $30M
5. T.J. Watt, $28M

Only Donald, who was 30 years old at the time of his extension, compares in terms of age when speaking to these numbers. Nick Bosa was 26, T.J. Watt was 27, Tyreek Hill was 27 when they penned their most recent extensions.

Furthermore, the cash flow of this deal is structured to pay out a true $31.7M over the first 3 seasons (the practical portion of this contract). This also aligns with Donald’s deal, who secures $95M over 3 seasons, for a true $31.6M per year.

Nick Bosa’s contract, which comes with a 4 year practical guarantee, drops down to a $30.4M adjusted APY when portioning off this section of the contract.

BONUS STRUCTURE

The Chiefs kept things fairly neat and tidy here. Jones secures a single $30M signing bonus (spread out over the full 5 seasons for salary cap purposes). He then offsets his compensation in both 2025 ($15M) & 2026 ($16M) with early March roster bonuses. These bonuses are highly likely to be converted to signing bonus for cap saving purposes in the weeks leading up to each respective offseason.

Additionally, Chris Jones will secure an extra $100,000 per year by completing the necessary offseason workout programs.

GUARANTEE STRUCTURE

Jones secures an outstanding $60M fully guaranteed at signing on this contract, stemming from a $30M signing bonus, a $1.25M salary in 2024, a $15M roster bonus due next March, and a $13.75M salary for the 2025 season.

Next March, $35M of his 2026 compensation (a $16M roster bonus & $19M salary) will become fully guaranteed. That balance is guaranteed for injury at the time of signing (a not-insignificant for a player in his 30s).

This $95M represents the practical guarantee balance on this contract, spread over the next 3 seasons. The contract also contains an additional $6M of salary guarantee, but Jones must be on the roster in March of 2027 to secure the $3M early vesting lock, then on the roster in March of 2028 to secure another $3M of early guarantee for that upcoming season salary. While these guarantees help in forcing the team to make a decision, they don’t hamper the franchise from being able to move on from the player in that given year, so we don’t treat this $6M as practical guarantee for this reasoning. 

CASH FLOW

Had the Chiefs slapped a franchise tag on Jones this February, it would have accounted for $32.14M (120% of his 2023 compensation). Jones scores a little bit less than this for the upcoming season, set to earn $31.35M in 2024. It’s a small price to pay for another $64M guaranteed thereafter.

Annual Cash Payouts

1. $31.35M
2. $28.85M
3. $35.1M
4. $28.35M
5. $35.1M

Cumulative Cash Payouts

1. $31.35M
2. $60.2M
3. $95.3M
4. $123.65M
5. $158.75M

The 3-year payout is the number to pay attention to here, as it represents the 2nd most earned across this span for any non-QB in NFL history (Nick Bosa, $98.5M). Jones barely surpasses Aaron Donald’s $95M mark here (not accidentally).

CAP FLOW

Once Chiefs fans see this contract breakdown, only one number will stand out initially: $7.35M. That’s the cap hit for 2024 under these new terms. Well - sort of. Keep in mind that the structure of Jones’ 1-year deal for 2023 came with unlikely to be earned incentives that if met, would need to be accounted for on the Chiefs’ 2024 cap table. That adds an additional $4M to this year’s accounting, meaning Jones technically carries an $11M hit for KC this season.

From there, the numbers jump significantly, starting with a $34.85M cap hit in 2025. However, if the NFL salary cap jumps to $270M in 2025, this hit will only represent around 13% of that balance, a potentially tenable situation for the Chiefs.

Annual Salary Cap Hits

1. $7.35M
2. $34.85M
3. $41.1M
4. $34.35M
5. $41.1M

If the contract remains untouched (no cap conversions), KC will hold $12M of dead cap ahead of the 2027 season against a $34.35M cap hit, offering up $22M of potential savings. It should be largely expected that the team converts some of Jones’ future compensation (possibly only the roster bonuses) into signing bonus to aid in roster construction over the next 2 seasons.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

All of Spotrac’s predictions & analysis surrounding this contract chimed in at 3 year deals. It’s important to remember that while this contract is posted as a 5 year deal, it’s essentially a 3 year, $95M contract for practical purposes.

With that said, Jones has surpassed all expectations of a “team-friendly” “compromising” contract to remain in Kansas City. Aaron Donald’s deal, based on both age, production, & leverage, was long considered a bit of a 1 of 1 across the league. Does Jones deserve to surpass him in all regards financially speaking?

Yes. Even if the numbers on the stat line or the analysis from PFF don’t necessarily back it up - the finances of the NFL do. When Aaron Donald signed his extension in Los Angeles, the league salary cap was $208.2M. This means Donald’s $31.6M APY represented a 15.1% allocation of the league cap at the time of signing. Fast forward to 2024, and Jones’ $31.75M only represents 12.5% of the upcoming $255.4M league cap.

This is why NFL contracts keep forging forward. Players don’t necessarily have to produce (or even contain ceilings that could see them potentially producing) at the highest level of their respective position group. Math matters, and in the case of Chris Jones & the Chiefs, longevity, production, a window of contention, & a hell of a money jump across the league - all equaled a monster pay day for #95 going forward.

Buffalo Bills GM Brandon Beane must have had an internal March 6th deadline for many of the “pre-agency” decisions on his plate. In one of the bigger Wednesday News Dumps in recent memory, Buffalo announced 5 outright releases, 1 Post June 1st Designation, a cap conversion, a renegotiated contract, 2 contract extensions, 2 free agent signings, & a partridge in a pear tree.

All told (based on the information we’ve secured right now), the Bills started March 6th with -$41M of cap space, and close up shop significantly closer to cap compliance (details on the Trubisky & Rapp contracts still pending).

A few more cap clearing moves could be in the cards for Buffalo, as we’ve made note of here.

RELEASES ($25.955M cap saved)

Mitch Morse, C

Morse has been the starting center in Buffalo for the past 5 seasons, but the almost 32-year-old was entering a contract year in 2024, set to earn $8.5M against an $11.5M cap hit. His release frees up $8.5M in cap space. League sources have announced that the Bills plan to slide Connor McGovern from guard to center for the upcoming season.

Jordan Poyer, FS

After 7 outstanding seasons in Buffalo’s defensive backfield, Poyer returns to the open market. The almost-33-year-old was set to earn $5.75M against a $7.72M cap hit in 2024, and should have interest in free agency at a slightly less price point. His release clears $5.72M of space for Buffalo.

Nyheim Hines, RB/KR

Hines suffered a season-ending injury off the field last summer, putting his future in Buffalo in peril from that point on. Factor that into a $5M salary/$5.1M cap hit for the upcoming season, and it made the Bills’ decision to take the $4.66M of space fairly easy this winter.

Deonte Harty, WR/KR

The Bills approached Harty about a pay cut to stick around, but the two sides failed to agree on a number. The barely 26-year-old weapon hits the open market with a chance to secure a larger role on his third NFL franchise. Buffalo freed up $4.195M of space per this release.

Siran Neal, S

An important special-team player in Buffalo since 2018, Neal’s $3.4M cap hit for the upcoming season became too rich to carry. The near 30-year-old’s release frees up $2.88M of cap space.

CAP CONVERSION ($2.5M cap saved)

Rasul Douglas, CB

Acquired from Green Bay at last October’s deadline, Douglas made himself an integral piece to Buffalo’s secondary in a short period of time, making him an outside extension candidate this winter. Buffalo instead opted to convert a bit of his base salary ($1.5M) plus a $2M roster bonus into a signing bonus, clearing $2.5M of space when factoring in 3 void years.

RENEGOTIATION ($8.645M cap saved)

Von Miller, DE

In maybe the biggest surprise of the winter thus far, Von Miller appears to have agreed to a significant initial pay cut. The almost-35-year-old carried a $10.71M guarantee into this offseason, & all of his $17.145M base salary for 2024 was set to become fully guaranteed by March 18th. Instead, Buffalo handed Miller a $7M roster bonus (which may be treated as a signing bonus at some point this offseason), lowered his base salary down to $1.5M, and added $11.145M of incentives, offering Miller a chance to earn some of this money back by the end of the year. A breakdown of these not likely to be earned incentives can be found here.

POST JUNE 1ST DESIGNATION

Tre'Davious White, CB

The Bills haven’t formally announced this yet (likely because they can’t formalize this until March 13th), but Buffalo appears poised to designate White a Post 6/1 release. The Bills will carry White’s $16,443,737 cap figure into June, then take on dead hits of $6,234,918 in 2024, & $4,134,918 in 2025. Buffalo will open up $10,208,819 of cap space on June 2nd, just in time to sign a class of draft picks.

FREE AGENT SIGNINGS

Mitchell Trubisky, QB

The Bills carried Trubisky through the 2021 to backup Josh Allen, and appear poised to do the same for the upcoming 2024 campaign. The former #2 overall pick earned $8M in Pittsburgh last season. It’s safe to say his deal in Buffalo won’t approach that, but financial details are still TBD at this moment.

Matt Haack, P

Like Trubisky, Haack was a member of the Bills back in 2021, but has bounced around quite a bit since. Last year punter Sam Martin is set to enter Year 2 of a 3 year, $6M contract, but an outright release this week can free up $1.35M of cap space. It seems likely that’s a move still to come from Buffalo. 

EXTENSIONS

David Edwards, G

Buffalo kept Edwards off of the open market on a 2 year, $6M contract that includes $2.95M guaranteed (all in 2024). The 27-year-old will compete for a starting guard spot on this O-Line, and can increase his 2024 pay (and 2025 salary) by $1.25M based on unspecified playing time incentives. Edwards stands to count $2.31M against the Bills' 2024 cap, which could be excellent value if he wins the starting left guard role.

Taylor Rapp, S

With much of the secondary on their way to the open market (or retirement) this winter, Buffalo secured one important piece, bringing back Rapp on a 3 year contract that can reportedly max out at $14.5M. Spotrac had him valued at $5.5M per year. Full breakdown coming soon.

RELATED

• Bills Transactions
• Bills Free Agents

Nine players were handed a tag ahead of the 2024 league year, including 1 (rare) transition tender. Spotrac details each player’s current offer, potential future outcome, & projected long-term extension. As a reminder, teams now have until July 15th to come to terms on a multi-year extension with these players. If no deal is completed, the player must play on a 1 year contract for the 2024 season (though not necessarily at the value of the tag).

RELATED
NFL Franchise Tag Tracker
NFL Transition Tag Tracker
NFL Free Agency Tracker

Tee Higgins (WR, Bengals)

2024 Tag: $21,816,000
The Bengals now have Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase on the books at $31.6M of combined cap in 2024. An extension for Chase likely increases his ($9.8M) cap figure. An extension for Higgins most certainly lowers his tag hit in 2024. Are either likely in the coming months? Spotrac projects big numbers for both.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Colts)

2024 Tag: $21,816,000
Pittman’s tag immediately becomes the 3rd highest cap hit on an up and coming Colts roster. Indy still rolls toward the league year with around $53M of Top 51 cap space - even after accounting for this franchise tender. Spotrac projects a 4 year, $100M extension for the 26-year-old this summer.

Justin Madubuike (DT, Ravens)

2024 Tag: $22,102,000
Talk about peaking at the right time. Madubuike entered 2023 with 8.5 sacks combined over his first three seasons. He posted 13 sacks, 15 tackles, and 2 forced fumbles last year, setting himself up for a top of the market interior defender contract. Mathematically speaking, that looks like a 4 year, $82M deal in our system right now.

Brian Burns (OLB, Panthers)

2024 Tag: $24,007,000
Burns’ $24M tag represents the 2nd highest cap hit on Carolina’s books right now (Taylor Moton, $29.7M). Burns is the type of player you’d love to build a defense around, but are they starting the entire process over again? He’s a 4 year, $88M player in our system, but that might be another team’s contract to sign if a tag+trade is in the works.

Josh Allen (OLB, Jaguars)

2024 Tag: $24,007,000
The Jags are in for another major facelift on the defensive side of the ball, but keeping Allen as the centerpiece appears to be in their plans as well. Mathematically speaking, the #7 overall pick is a $24M per year player (aligning with the tag value), but it stands to reason that a deal in the $27M per year range makes sense. 5 years, $135M ($95M guaranteed).

L'Jarius Sneed (CB, Chiefs)

2024 Tag: $19,802,000
The Chiefs haven’t been shy about where this is likely headed. Sneed was always destined for the tag this winter, and will now explore trade options in an effort to give KC the best possible outcome in losing such a valuable player. Trade buyer beware though, because he’ll be requiring a top of the market CB contract upon arrival. Something in the 5 year, $95M ($65M guaranteed) range sounds about right.

Jaylon Johnson (CB, Bears)

2024 Tag: $19,802,000
It seems as though Johnson & the Bears have been close in their discussions, but offers in the $15M-$16M per year range likely need to inflate into the $18M+ conversations with the tag number where it is. The Bears are trying to build a winner quickly. Keeping a talented CB1 in the fold, and happy, seems a priority here. 5 years, $90M ($60M guaranteed).

Antoine Winfield Jr. (S, Buccaneers)

2024 Tag: $17,123,000
Winfield Jr. can do everything, and should be paid accordingly. This is one of those scenarios where the tag represents “value” versus where the player deserves to be paid on an annual basis. 4 years, $80M ($48M guaranteed)

Kyle Dugger (S, Patriots)

2024 Tag: $13,815,000
New England opted for the transition tag with Dugger, a value that aligns with the reportedly multi-year offers they made to him in recent weeks. For reference, the transition tag is a lower-priced tag, and it offers no draft compensation in return should the player sign an offer sheet and leave this offseason. The Pats are betting on that not happening. A really nice list of safeties available on the open market probably means they’ll be right. If he opts for a long-term deal in New England, 4 years, $60M ($42M guaranteed) could get it done.

With the tag window now shut closed, we have a clearer picture of players who could very well be hitting the open market when the league year officially begins on March 13th. Barring a few last minute extensions, Spotrac has identified a few notable players at each position group, including projected contracts for each.

RELATED: NFL Free Agent Tracker

QUARTERBACK

Kirk Cousins

Projected Contract: 3 years, $100M ($70M guaranteed)
Will the Vikings pony up an offer with enough guaranteed to keep Cousins in the fold, or will Denver, Atlanta, etc…get a shot to upgrade their QB1 position.

Baker Mayfield

Projected Contract: 4 years, $120M ($85M guaranteed)
Will the Bucs pony up an offer with enough guaranteed to keep Baker in the fold, or will Denver, Atlanta, etc…get a shot to upgrade their QB1 position.

Ryan Tannehill

Projected Contract: 1 year, $5M ($5M guaranteed)
Will joining a franchise with a better complement of weapons and offensive line help resurrect Tannehill’s career? It seems feasible that someone will give him a chance to compete for a QB1 role this summer.

Also: Gardner Minshew, Jacoby Brissett, Tyrod Taylor, Joshua Dobbs, Sam Darnold, Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco

View all UFA Quarterbacks

RUNNING BACK

Saquon Barkley

Projected Contract: 3 years, $30M ($12M guaranteed)
Barkley and the Giants appear headed for a divorce, meaning he’ll join a loaded RB market in free agency. Supply & Demand is not on his side here.

Josh Jacobs

Projected Contract: 3 years, $30M ($12M guaranteed)
Jacobs couldn’t recreate 2022, but he showed signs down the stretch that he can still be a versatile playmaker. A return to Las Vegas still seems likely here.

Derrick Henry

Projected Contract: 1 year, $7.5M
He’s north of 30, but still carried a depleted Tennessee offense in 2023. A return to the Titans isn’t out of the question, but contenders (Baltimore, Miami, Houston) could be a better fit next season.

Also: Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler, D'Andre Swift, Gus Edwards, Devin Singletary, Ezekiel Elliott, Zack Moss, Antonio Gibson, Alexander Mattison, JK Dobbins

View all UFA Running Backs

WIDE RECEIVER

Calvin Ridley

Projected Contract: 3 years, $66M ($42M guaranteed)
A trade condition keeps Jacksonville from extending Ridley before free agency, but that doesn’t mean they’ll let him get too far immediately thereafter. Other teams may need to come swinging with massive numbers to pry him away from the Jags.

Marquise Brown

Projected Contract: 4 years, $60M ($32M guaranteed)
Browns’ production fell to a career low in 2023, making his first trek into free agency a bit of an unknown. The ceiling still seems high enough for a team or two to take a 2-year guarantee swing.

Gabriel Davis

Projected Contract: 4 years, $54M ($28M guaranteed)
Davis never really found his footing in Buffalo’s offense. Will he be this year’s version of Christian Kirk in free agency?

Also: Darnell Mooney, Tyler Boyd, Curtis Samuel, Odell Beckham, Jr., Noah Brown, Josh Reynolds, Kendrick Bourne, K.J. Osborn, DJ Chark

View all UFA Wide Receivers

TIGHT END

Hunter Henry

Projected Contract: 2 years, $15M ($8M guaranteed)
Henry was able to stand out in a diminished Patriots offense the past few seasons. At 29, there should still be a few productive seasons left in the tank.

Noah Fant

Projected Contract: 2 years, $12.5M ($6.5M guaranteed)
It feels like Fant’s ceiling as an offensive weapon has yet to be reached. Now he gets an opportunity to pick his offense.

Jonnu Smith

Projected Contract: 2 years, $12M ($6M guaranteed)
Was Smith overpaid in New England/Atlanta? Yes. But that shouldn’t diminish his ability to produce on a consistent basis.

Also: Gerald Everett, Colby Parkinson, Logan Thomas, Will Dissly, Mike Gesicki, Hayden Hurst

View all UFA Tight Ends

OFFENSIVE TACKLE

Tyron Smith

Projected Contract: 1 year, $7.5M
The longtime Cowboy appears poised to test the market for the first time. He’s 33, and has battled injury of late, but players like this simply don’t become available often.

Jonah Williams

Projected Contract: 4 years, $44M ($25M guaranteed)
Williams was pushed from the left side to the right side upon the signing of Orlando Brown Jr. away from Kansas City. He fared well in the new role and offers a pedigree (and potential ceiling) that doesn’t usually hit the open market.

Trenton Brown

Projected Contract: 3 years, $22M ($14M guaranteed)
Like Smith & Williams above, Brown has experience at both Left & Right tackle. Versatility always pays in this league.

Also: Charles Leno, Jermaine Eluemunor, Donovan Smith, Josh Jones, George Fant, Cameron Fleming

View all UFA Tackles

GUARD

Kevin Dotson

Projected Contract: 4 year, $66M ($40M guaranteed)
The Steelers loss quickly became the Rams gain, as Dotson poured out his best season to date by a long shot in 2023. The 4th round pick will hit the open market as arguably the best available guard

Robert Hunt

Projected Contract: 4 year, $48M ($30M guaranteed)
The converted tackle made his mark at Right Guard in Miami’s versatile offense, putting the former #39 overall pick in line for his first big pay day this March.

Mike Onwenu

Projected Contract: 4 years, $54M ($38M guaranteed)
If the Patriots plan is to drop a rookie QB into their offense, keeping players like this should be a top priority. This could be one of those “wow” free agent contracts if he’s allowed to get there.

Also: Ezra Cleveland, Kevin Zeitler, Damien Lewis, Dalton Risner, Jonah Jackson, John Simpson

View all UFA Guards

CENTER

Lloyd Cushenberry

Projected Contract: 4 years, $33M ($24M guaranteed)
Posted a breakout season in his walk year: Always a great recipe for free agency success. He’s a phenomenal pass blocker, making him a candidate to be aligned with a rookie QB1 in 2024.

Andre James

Projected Contract: 3 years, $27M ($20M guaranteed)
James anchored an Raiders O-Line that came together nicely over the past few seasons. If he’s allowed to walk, the final contract may surprise some.

Connor Williams

Projected Contract: 1 year, $7.5M
He probably signs the largest center free agent contract this spring if not for a torn ACL last season.

Also: Aaron Brewer, Brian Allen, Tyler Biadasz, Nick Gates, Evan Brown

View all UFA Centers

INTERIOR DEFENDER

Chris Jones

Projected Contract: 3 years, $85M ($60M guaranteed)
Jones was looking for $30M per year this time last offseason. An unsuccessful holdout & a great 2023 campaign and a $33M+ franchise tag value keeps that hope alive this time around. One of the best interior DLs of this generation should have no trouble securing his asking price on the open market, but we’ll predict a slightly less figure to return to KC (again). 

Christian Wilkins

Projected Contract: 4 years, $82M ($60M guaranteed)
When factoring in age, Wilkins is probably the most attractive defensive player on many big boards this March. His numbers don’t jump off of the page (tempering his market valuation), but a deal in the $24-$26M per year range shouldn’t surprise anyone.

D.J. Reader

Projected Contract: 3 years, $45M ($32M guaranteed)
Injuries (including one late in 2023) have been the only thing holding back Reader from cashing a top of the market contract. If he can return to full strength, he’ll hold plenty of value on his next team.

Also: Sheldon Rankins, DaQuan Jones, Grover Stewart, Teair Tart, Fletcher Cox, Javon Kinlaw

View all UFA Interior Defenders

EDGE DEFENDER

Danielle Hunter

Projected Contract: 3 years, $60M ($42M guaranteed)
Hunter’s deal won’t officially void until well after the franchise tag window, so barring an extension, an edge defender with 27 sacks, 150 tackles, and 5 forced fumbles over the past two seasons is about to hit the open market. 

Leonard Williams

Projected Contract: 3 years, $60M ($42M guaranteed)
Williams hasn’t been able to recreate an elite 2020 campaign that scored him a $63M extension in March of 2021, but he’s still considered one of the best interior defensive linemen in the game. Seattle gave out a 2nd & 5th round pick this past deadline to secure him, so a healthy multi-year offer should be on the table sooner rather than later. 

Jonathan Greenard

Projected Contract: 4 years, $54M ($38M guaranteed)
A huge part of the Texans’ defensive turnaround (52 tackles, 12.5 sacks, 1 forced fumble), Greenard is set up nicely for a major payday this March. The former 3rd round pick should secure a multi-year guarantee on the open market.

Also: Bryce Huff, Chase Young, Jadeveon Clowney, Za'Darius Smith, Josh Uche, Leonard Floyd, Denico Autry

View all UFA Edge Defenders

LINEBACKER

Patrick Queen

Projected Contract: 4 years, $75M ($53M guaranteed)
Roquan Smith’s arrival was supposed to deflate Queen’s role and value both in Baltimore and potentially on the open market. Insert a career season for Queen in 2023, and a projected price tag ($18.5M per year) that almost certainly forces the Ravens to move on this offseason.

Frankie Luvu

Projected Contract: 4 years, $44M ($30M guaranteed)
If his coverage numbers were even slightly above average, we’d be talking about a deal near the top of the off-ball market here. That’s the kind of pass rush/run stuffing player Luvu has become in Carolina. 

Jordyn Brooks

Projected Contract: 4 years, $42M ($28M guaranteed)
2023 was about proving he could fully return from the Torn ACL. Will teams need to see more to guarantee him multiple years on a contract?

Also: Bobby Wagner, Lavonte David, Eric Kendricks, Devin White, Josey Jewell, Jordan Hicks, Willie Gay Jr.

View all UFA Linebackers

CORNERBACK

Kendall Fuller

Projected Contract: 4 years, $54M ($38M guaranteed)
Tags to Jaylon Johnson & La’Darius Sneed vault Fuller into the #1 free agent CB on the open market. Generally speaking, that honor has come with quite a price tag in the past.

Steven Nelson

Projected Contract: 2 years, $16M ($9M guaranteed)
Nelson was one of the reasons the Texans took a major stride in 2023. They want him back for a few more seasons, but he’ll need a raise to stick around.

Kenny Moore

Projected Contract: 3 years, $24M ($10M guaranteed)
The former UDFA has been seeking an upgraded contract in Indy for the better part of two seasons now, and certainly did his part to help the case in 2023 (93 tackles, 3 interceptions, 1.5 sacks). Unfortunately, the slot cornerback market has leveled off mightily since he last penned his $8.3M per year contract.

Also: Darious Williams,  Chidobe Awuzie, Stephon Gilmore, Adoree' Jackson, Keisean Nixon, Myles Bryant

View all UFA Cornerbacks

SAFETY

Kamren Curl

Projected Contract: 4 year, $57M ($30M guaranteed)
Curl has risen from the #216 overall pick back in 2020 to the best available safety not named Winfield in 2024. He’s a tackling machine, and has proven to be available & reliable for a Washington defense that hasn’t always been in the best of situations (to put it nicely).

Xavier McKinney

Projected Contract: 5 years, $52M ($30M guaranteed)
McKinney was a fringe tag candidate, setting himself up for a nice payday on the open market - likely with a new team.

Kevin Byard

Projected Contract: 2 years, $14M ($10M guaranteed)
A cap casualty out of Philly, Byard remains one of the best run-stuffing defensive backs in the game. Now north of 30, and with safeties having a tough go in free agency of late, look for this number to be a little lower than expected.

Also: Geno Stone, Julian Blackmon, Jordan Whitehead, Jordan Fuller, Darnell Savage, Micah Hyde

View all UFA Safeties