Tyler Herro of the Miami Heat is probably going to win Sixth Man of the Year. Actually, remove the probably. Herro will win Sixth Man of the Year. Herro has been dominant off the bench for Miami this season. He’s averaged 21 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game for the Heat in his third season. In a somewhat odd twist, Herro has been far more effective as a reserve than as a starter. His efficiency drops considerably as a starter, which leads to fall-off in overall production. That begs the question: How much do you pay a sixth man?

That’s what the Heat have to answer this summer, as Herro becomes extension eligible. Reports are already out there that Herro is seeking a max extension. Can you max out a player who has started in just 33 of 166 games? As a reminder: Herro is under contract for 2022-23 at $5.7 million. If he signs an extension this summer, it would start with the 2023-24 season. We’re using a conservative salary cap projection of $127 million to build our estimates off of.

The Full Max Extension

Let’s cover this first, because it’s what Herro is going to ask for. For a guy who is a proven scorer, good shooter and developing playmaker, it’s fair to start here.

Here’s what the full max extension would look like for Herro:

• 2023-24: $31,750,000
• 2024-25: $34,290,000
• 2025-26: $36,830,000
• 2026-27: $39,370,000
• 2027-28: $41,910,000
• Total: Five years, $184,150,000

This is a five-year extension with 8% raises. It starts at the full projected max of $31,750,000. Player options on the final season have become somewhat common again, after disappearing for years. But they are generally reserved for players who have All-Star or All-NBA selections on their resume. Herro probably isn’t in a spot to command a player option yet.

One other option that’s worth considering, but hard to put figures to, is the idea of a below max extension, but with bonuses that could bring it to a max. This is essentially what the Boston Celtics did in Jaylen Brown’s extension. Brown’s guaranteed money is below the max, but he has performance and team success language that can push his salary up close to max money. That could be a way for Miami and Herro to split the difference, if the Heat aren’t comfortable with a guaranteed max.

Playing Things Out to Restricted Free Agency

Let’s say Miami doesn’t want to go to the full max and Herro won’t budge off that ask. They could play things out during the 2022-23 season. In that case, Herro would be eligible for restricted free agency in the summer of 2023.

Nothing would change as far as the deal Miami could offer Herro, as far as the max goes. That number remains the same. What could happen is a down season could knock Herro’s price tag down some. Conversely, if Herro continues to play as he has this season, he’ll be in an even stronger position to demand a max deal.

We’re going to cover this here, because it’s as good a place as any: Herro isn’t a candidate to sign the Qualifying Offer and hit unrestricted free agency in 2024. Herro will likely meet Starter Criteria (via the 2,000 minutes played criterion vs the 41 games started criterion), which will bump his QO just slightly. Instead of $7.9 million, Herro could sign the QO for $8.5 million.

Simply put: Herro is too good to sign for so little. In addition, there are no signs Herro has any sort of adverse relationship with Miami that would cause him to want to leave town so badly that he’d sign the QO.

Leaving For Another Team

Let’s say things do go sideways for some reason between Herro and the Heat. He could sign with another team as a restricted free agent. That offer sheet would look like this:

• 2023-24: $31,750,000
• 2024-25: $33,337,500
• 2025-26: $34,925,000
• 2026-27: $36,512,500
• Total: Four years, $136,525,000

This is a four-year max deal with 5% raises. Generally, an offer sheet includes all the bells and whistles to entice the incumbent to let the player walk. This deal would likely include a 15% trade bonus, a player option on the fourth season and probably some up front actual payments. The idea is to make it so that it’s as uncomfortable as possible for the incumbent team to match.

Given that Miami’s front office is one of the smarter and more creative in the league, it’s unlikely things would get to this point. If Herro was set on leaving South Beach, the Heat would look to work a sign-and-trade. In that case, the contract for Herro would look exactly the same as above, as players can’t get more via sign-and-trade that via signing outright with a new team.

The Extension After a Trade

We’ll cover this one pretty quickly, as it would look exactly like the max extension with Miami would. Trading Herro this offseason seems unlikely, but there is a precedent to look at.

In 2012, after three outstanding seasons off the bench, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded James Harden to the Houston Rockets.

No, we’re not saying Tyler Herro is going to become James Harden. But…we’re not exactly not saying it either. Go compare their first three seasons. We’ll wait… Kind of similar, right?

At any rate, if Miami wanted to cash in, rebuild their young talent and draft pick pipeline, they could look to deal Herro to a team that sees him as their Harden. In that case for Herro, the extension options would look the same as they would with the Heat. And if a team gave up a big package to get Herro, they’d be giving him a max deal.

Summary

It’s unlikely Tyler Herro is going anywhere. He’s simply too important to what Miami has built, and just as key, to what the Heat are building moving forward.

Expect Herro and Miami to come to an agreement on a max deal. Whether that’s four or five years, or five years with a player option on the final season, is up in the air. Or it could be a slightly below max, with bonus language to the max.

Given his status as the top sixth man in the league, age, continued improvement and importance to the Heat, Herro will probably get maxed out.

And that’s when things get really interesting for Miami.

If Herro gets a max that starts with the 2023-24 season, the Heat will have the following players under contract for that season:

• Bam Adebayo – $32.6 million
• Jimmy Butler – $44.5 million (estimated first year of extension)
• Tyler Herro - $31.7 million (estimated first year of extension)
• Kyle Lowry - $29.7 million
• Duncan Robinson - $18.2 million

That’s $156.6 million against a projected luxury tax line of $154.4 million for five players. $2.2 million over the tax for five players.

For five players! That’s a minimum of nine roster spots to fill. Re-sign a couple of their own free agents and the Heat start pushing into Nets, Warriors, Clippers and Lakers levels of tax bills.

At the trade deadline, Miami not-so-subtly shopped Duncan Robinson. Part of that is Robinson is in the midst of a third straight season of declining production. And that’s attached to $74.4 million owed to the sharpshooter through 2025-26.

But a just-as-big a part of shopping Robinson is related to future roster planning. You can’t be over the tax line for just five players. Especially when two of the five players will be 34 years old (Butler) and 36 years old (Lowry), with lengthy injury histories. Look at this season’s Lakers for how precarious building that top-heavy of a roster becomes.

Miami is smart. They also know they have a full season and two offseasons to figure things out. They’ll likely lock Herro up to an extension, and probably one that approaches the max. But the Heat will make roster tweaks before Herro’s extension kicks in. It’ll probably cost them Robinson, but that’s the price of doing business when you’ve nailed your draft picks and end-of-roster signings like Miami has.

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UPDATED 4/29 PER A PROJECTED $122M 2022-23 LEAGUE CAP

In the summer of 2018, Zach LaVine signed a four-year, $78 million offer sheet with the Sacramento Kings. The offer sheet was structured with no options and was worth a flat $19.5 million per season. It seems silly now, but there was real debate at the time as to whether the Chicago Bulls should match. Chicago did match. And they made the right decision as LaVine’s career has taken off since then. Why then were there questions about if Chicago could match? LaVine had played for only poor teams in his career, having spent the first three seasons of his career with the Minnesota Timberwolves and the fourth year with the Bulls. In addition, LaVine had some injuries issues in his third and fourth seasons.

Still, he was seen as a talented player. One who could both handle the ball as a playmaker, but also function as a primary scorer, even if that was still somewhat theoretical at the time. In the first four years of his career, LaVine averaged 14 points, three rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. His first year in Chicago, after being acquired in the trade that sent Jimmy Butler to the Wolves, featured just 24 games. LaVine debuted in mid-January after tearing his ACL in his last with year the Wolves. He was up-and-down until he was shut down for the year in mid-March. In the four years since the Bulls matched the offer sheet from the Kings, LaVine’s career went to the next level. He’s averaged 25.3 points, 4.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. In addition, LaVine has had 48/39/83 shooting splits during that period.

Just as importantly, LaVine has stayed mostly healthy during this run. That has helped him garner back-to-back All-Star nods. In addition, LaVine has shown he’s not just a “good stats, bad team” guy, as he’s been a big part of Chicago’s turnaround. This summer, LaVine will again hit free agency. The difference is this time he’ll be an unrestricted free agent. And the Bulls won’t get him on any sort of under-market, team-friendly deal. LaVine is likely to get paid.

Here are the options for Zach LaVine’s next contract.

The Veteran Extension

We can rule this one out, but for the sake of completionism, we’re going to cover it.

LaVine and Chicago could ink a veteran extension right now. The challenge is that it won’t pay LaVine nearly enough. He’d be limited to 120% of his current salary in the first year of an extension that would start in 2022-23. LaVine could then get 8% raises on the three subsequent seasons. That deal would look like this:

• 2022-23: $23,400,000
• 2023-24: $25,272,000
• 2024-25: $27,144,000
• 2025-26: $29,016,000
• Total: Four years, $104,832,000

It should be pretty easy to see why this one isn’t happening. That’s not even the maximum a player can get coming off a Rookie Scale contract. More simply put: players hitting free agency after an All-Star season command far more than an average of $26 million per season.

The Standard Max with the Bulls

Now, we’re talking! This is probably where the conversation starts for LaVine and Chicago. He just recently turned 27 years old, so LaVine should maintain his value throughout the life of this deal. Here’s what the full max would look like:

• 2022-23: $36,600,000
• 2023-24: $39,528,000
• 2024-25: $42,456,000
• 2025-26: $45,384,000
• 2026-27: $48,312,000
• Total: Five years, $212,280,000

That’s the full five-year max, with 8% raises. It starts at the 30% of the salary cap max, based on the most recent projection of a $122 million salary cap for 2022-23.

It’s likely this deal would include a player option for LaVine on the final season. Most players of his caliber have been able to get a player option on a max deal. That would allow LaVine to get back on the free agent market for one more big contract when he’s 31 years old.

The Full Max with Another Team

Let’s say the Bulls playoff run doesn’t go as hoped for and Chicago is bounced in the first round. Maybe LaVine doesn’t mesh with DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic on the biggest stage. Maybe he wants a bigger role on his own team elsewhere.

Even if the Bulls falter earlier than some might expect in the postseason, LaVine will have been a huge part of that turnaround. He’s probably not leaving Chicago in that case. But, just in case, here’s what a max deal with another team would look like:

• 2022-23: $36,600,000
• 2023-24: $38,430,000
• 2024-25: $40,260,000
• 2025-26: $42,090,000
• Total: Four years, $157,380,000

That’s the full four-year max LaVine could sign for with another team. It starts at the same 30% of the salary cap max that he can get from the Bulls, but it includes just 5% raises.

In total, that’s about a $6.6 million difference in salary over four years. It’s a $54.5 million difference in total salary. But, given LaVine’s relatively young age, the four-year difference is the one to focus on.

Again, given LaVine’s stature as a two-time All-Star, it’s likely he could demand a player option on the fourth season. That would put him back on the market as a 30-year-old.

One last note on this one: This is the same deal LaVine could get via a sign-and-trade this summer.

The Designated Veteran Max with the Bulls

This deal is unlikely to be available to LaVine, but isn’t completely out of the running. LaVine won’t win MVP or Defensive Player of the Year to qualify for a Designated Veteran contract. But he could still make a late push to make an All-NBA team. If that happened, LaVine would qualify to jump from the 30% of the cap max tier to the 35% of the cap max tier, despite having only eight years of service.

A couple of things to note: LaVine is only eligible for this deal this offseason. And he’s only eligible to get it from the Bulls because Chicago acquired him while he was still on his Rookie Scale deal.

Here’s what this contract would look like:

• 2022-23: $42,700,000
• 2023-24: $46,116,000
• 2024-25: $49,532,000
• 2025-26: $52,948,000
• 2026-27: $56,364,000
• Total: Five years, $247,660,000

That’s the full Designated Veteran max starting at 35% of the cap, with 8% raises. As with the other options presented here, LaVine would likely demand a player option on that final season. And he would be in an even better spot to demand one coming off an All-NBA nod.

Summary

It seems unlikely that Zach LaVine will make an All-NBA team this season. He’s had a good year, but the Bulls slide in the standings, combined with LaVine missing 13 games as of this writing, probably takes that off the table.

It’s also fair to eliminated the standard veteran extension. He’s not taking that small of a contract.

That leaves the five-year max with Chicago, the four-year max with another team, or something in between.

The guess here is that LaVine take the full five-year max with the Bulls. There are a few reasons for this line of thinking.

First, LaVine has had some health issues, including a reoccurrence of knee pain this season. Most players in that situation want to lock up as much guaranteed money as possible.

Second, LaVine has almost all the leverage here. The Bulls can’t possibly replace him if he leaves. Even if it was a sign-and-trade, it’s unlikely Chicago gets back a player as good as LaVine.

Third, the Bulls are set up to win now. DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic are win-now players. Chicago has to keep LaVine to keep things moving onward and upward.

Lastly, even if LaVine falters some health-wise, his play should remain solid enough that he’ll retain trade value throughout the life of a five-year max deal. That alone should be enough protection for Chicago.

Even with factoring in a $36.6 million deal for LaVine in 2022-23, the Bulls should still be about $11 million clear of the luxury tax with four roster spots to fill. That should give them the ability to use their full Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception to attract a solid free agent and still dodge the tax. It’ll take a salary-clearing trade or two, but that’s no big deal. Given the lack of spending power around the NBA this summer, the MLE will be worth more than usual in free agency, as cap space dries up before good players have all found homes.

LaVine’s going to get his max deal. And he’s likely going to get it from the Bulls. There’s nothing team-friendly coming this time around, but Chicago should still be in a good spot to build a contender around LaVine, DeRozan, Vucevic and Lonzo Ball for the next few seasons

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Freddie Freeman (1B, 32)

Spotrac Projected Average Salary:  $27,135,000

It’s long been assumed that Freeman would return to Atlanta but minds will wander the longer he remains unsigned. If the player side has an internal number around Average Salary and simply wants the team to match, it’s likely a matter of time before this gets done. But if Freeman is truly available and intends on maximizing this next contract, it wouldn’t shock us to see a contender (Dodgers, Mets, Padres) make a huge offer to pull him away.

Anthony Rizzo (1B, 32)

Spotrac Projected Average Salary:  $21,700,000

Rizzo didn’t light it up as much as some anticipated he would in a lefty friendly Yankee Stadium, but a longer stint that would have to benefit him one would think. With that said, the Yankees are targeting Freddie Freeman as well, which may push Rizzo out to the open market for a new home. He may struggle to get to the $20M per year mark with this expedited free agency.

Carlos Correa (SS, 27)

Spotrac Projected Average Salary: $26,600,000

The perfect blend of age, talent, production and experience - Correa was the consensus top position player available entering November. While Corey Seager and Marcus Semien inked contracts first, it’s reported Correa rejected a 10 year/$275m offer from the Tigers ahead of the lockout. He has since switched agents - now represented by Scott Boras who brokered both the Seager ($325M) and Semien ($175M) mega deals. If he’s open to joining a rebuild as some have suggested, it’s likely at least one team makes an offer that exceeds $30m annually. If not, expect a deal littered with early player opt outs.

Trevor Story (SS, 29)

Spotrac Projected Average Salary:  $29,800,000

Another premier talent at the position that gets lost in the strength of this free agent class, it’s possible Story doesn’t find the salary + term he might command during a different offseason. Perhaps teams hesitate to commit long term if there are concerns about removing him from Coors, or how the skills will translate with age. If his market deteriorates, Story could target a short term deal and look to reenter the market in future years with weaker options at the position.

Kris Bryant (3B/OF, 30)

Spotrac Projected Average Salary:  $23,500,000

The market for Bryant might not be as big as once expected, as his short tenure in San Francisco didn’t exactly jump off the page. He’s still a versatile defender, and has batting title type discipline at the plate when he’s right. This seems like an Angels overpay if I’ve ever seen one.

Nick Castellanos (OF, 30)

Spotrac Projected Average Salary:  $21,300,000

Castellanos is perhaps the biggest beneficiary of the National League DH. While his quietly consistent offensive production would add value to any lineup, there are legitimate defensive concerns that previously limited interest. Expect there to be more suitors this time around.

Kyle Schwarber (OF, 29)

Spotrac Projected Average Salary:  12,900,000

Schwarber declined an $11M option for 2022 with Boston, as he seeks a multi-year guarantee on the open market. The Red Sox should be in consideration to bring him back, but likely not with any kind of impactful contract. He feels like a 3 year, $40M player right now.

Michael Conforto (OF, 29)

Spotrac Projected Average Salary:  $19,100,000

The market for Conforto seems stronger than anticipated, as many wondered if he would simply sign the one year qualifying offer with the Mets a few months ago. Contenders like the Yankees and Padres have already shown interest, so a $20M+ per year multi-year deal seems likely at this point.

Yusei Kikuchi (SP, 30)

Spotrac Projected Average Salary:   $12,000,000

The Cubs have been linked with Kikuchi for some time now, and it's tough to see them not get to the finish line here. His walks are too high right now, but there's reason to believe he can settle into a nice role. The Mets & Blue Jays may also have him on the radar for depth.

Zack Greinke (SP, 38)

Spotrac Projected Average Salary: $10,000,000

Greinke has expressed interest in returning to the mound in 2022, but it's possible he remains unsigned for a few months to best target his next destination. A full year of work may not be in his best interest, but he carries a ton of value down the stretch. A 1 year, $9M-$10M contract with incentives to go higher makes sense for a contender.

Kenley Jansen (RP, 34)

Spotrac Projected Average Salary:  $10,000,000

Jansen has regressed, but he’s still a viable option out of the back of a bullpen. A return to the Dodgers for a bit of a hometown discount seems the right play here.

Seiya Suzuki (OF, 27)

Spotrac Projected Average Salary: $12,000,000

The Red Sox have long been focused here and this likely remains their top priority. Financially speaking he’s probably inline with the likes of a Schwarber or Castellanos, but the unknown ceiling and potential 5-tool capabilities will have the big teams favoring Suzuki in the end. 5 years, $60M?

Nelson Cruz (DH, 41)

Spotrac Projected Average Salary:  $14,000,000

Cruz is the bat that keeps on giving. Despite his age, Cruz pumped in 32 homers, 21 doubles, and an .831 OPS in 2021, putting him back in line for another contract. He earned $13M for his services last year, so a simple raise (especially with an expanded CBT), makes some sense.

Matt Olson (1B, OAK, 27)

Olson projects to a $12M salary in his second year of arbitration, with free agency not currently scheduled until 2024. This is generally the time the A’s begin to deal away their position players, and with major power & outstanding defense on his resume, Olson should bring back a nice package. If the Braves let Freddie Freeman get away, this is a slam dunk replacement. Olson projects to a 6 year, $136M extension in our system.

Dominic Smith (1B/OF, NYM, 26)

Smith’s role has been reduced more and more each season, and the infrequent hitting has led to inconsistent production. There’s a world where an everyday role elsewhere reignites his abilities, and this spring could be the time for us to find that out. Smith is under team control through 2024. Cleveland has long seemed a strong fit.

Matt Chapman (3B, OAK, 28)

Like Olson, Chapman is headed into his Arbitration 2 year, projected at around $9.5M for the upcoming season. The Gold Glove defender has consistently provided near 5 WAR production on average, and could have his sights set on one of the NY teams for the foreseeable future. Chapman projects to a 6 year, $138M extension in our system.

J.D. Davis (3B/OF, NYM)

Davis’ bat was always touted as his strong point, while defensively (especially at 3rd base) he was considered a liability. The power at the plate was evident in 2019, but hasn’t been back since, though a part-time role is certainly a factor in that conversation. Davis will be seeking a more full-time opportunity in 2022, and a change of scenery probably makes sense for both sides. Contractually he projects to a $2.5M arbitration salary for 2022, with two more years of arbitration eligibility still remaining.

Jose Ramirez (INF, CLE)

Cleveland is probably ready to move on from their long-time All-Star, but they won’t do it on the cheap. Ramirez holds a $12M salary for 2022, then a $14M club option 2023 - ideally friendly salaries for any team looking to take on the 29 year old’s services. The Blue Jays had plenty of interest in this move last year.

Kevin Kiermaier (OF, TB, 31)

Kiermaier missed 40 games in 2021, but still posted decent production, and a 3.4 WAR across the season. His contract carries a $12M salary in 2022, & a $13M club option for 2023, numbers that generally scream “get out” based on Tampa Bay’s financial limits. 

Sean Manaea (SP, OAK, 30)

The Athletics could be in store for a very busy spring with (at least) three notable trade candidates. Manaea will be entering the final year of team control, set to earn an estimated $10M in the final year of arbitration. He’s a more traditional pitcher in that his advanced metrics don’t exactly jump off the page, but he’s a perfect middle of the rotation add for some of the better teams in the game, if even for just one year. He aligns well with the 4 year, $44M contract Steven Matz just scored in St. Louis.

Sonny Gray (SP, CIN, 32)

While the home runs against are up, Gray made the most of his time in Cincinnati - after a tumultuous tenure with the Yankees. There's middle of the rotation value here, and with a $10.3M salary for 2022, plus a $12M club option in 2023, there's very little risk involved as well.

Craig Kimbrel (RP, CWS, 33)

The White Sox overpaid for Kimbrel last summer, and they’ll look to get some of that compensation back via a trade this spring. He’s on the books for $16M this season, but it probably takes Chicago eating a few million of that to get him out the door. The Rangers and Blue Jays seem to be in serious “all-in” mode this offseason for a move like this.

Josh Hader (RP, MIL, 27)

Hader’s been rumored in trades for the better part of two seasons now. He’s still under team control through 2023, headed for an arbitration 3 salary in the $8M range for 2022. Milwaukee will want a mix of top prospects and MLB ready talent back in a Hader move, and the Mets currently seem best positioned to offer that. Hader projects to a 4 year, $70M extension in our system.

A first round pick, a third round pick and a 6th round pick, for a second round pick, a seventh round pick, and the rights to pay Khalil Mack. That’s the move that brought the now 31 year old edge rusher from the Raiders to the Bears. Chicago in turn signed him to a 6 year, $141M contract extension, of which $91M has been paid out.

Mack offered up 36 sacks in 3.5 years, and until last season was largely available, consistent, and productive across the board. Was this the right time to move on? Much of the Bears current roster construction says yes, especially as much of the team’s focus will be on protecting, and offering weapons for their next attempt at a franchise QB.

Terms of the Trade

The Chargers send the Bears a 2022 2nd round pick (#48), & a 2023 6th round pick for the rights to Khalil Mack. The #48 pick projects to carry a cap hit of $1.4M in 2022, so LAC will free up a bit of space in that regard.

The Traded Contract

2022: $17.75M ($12.05M salary, $5.5M roster bonus, $200k workout bonus)
2023: $22.9M ($17.2M salary, $5.5M roster bonus, $200k workout bonus)
2024: $23.25M ($17.55M salary, $5.5M roster bonus, $200k workout bonus)



The Chargers agreed to take on all of Mack’s remaining contract, to the tune of 3 years, $63.9M. But - as with almost every NFL contract - not everything is as it first seems.

While a $5.5M roster bonus is due next Friday, the remaining contract offers no other “upfront” guarantees from here out. Even his $12.05M base salary for 2022 won’t fully lock in until Week 1. So theoretically speaking, the Chargers could walk away from this contract after 2022 with no financial impact.

Cap Flexibility

Not only does a Joey Bosa Khalil Mack combo on the field offer flexibility in terms of defensive rush scheming, but there’s plenty of wiggle room in each of their contracts for cap clearing as needed.

With Mack specifically, the acquired contract brings on zero dead cap with it. His roster bonus will vest next week, but it probably makes sense for the Chargers to restructure this a bit in the next few days to free up additional cap space for what seems like a major push this March.

Is it required? No, the Chargers currently rank 13th in terms of Top 51 cap space with just under $25M to work with, but if the plan is to add another piece to their secondary, or a notable TE for Herbert to utilize, more room will be required (not to mention Derwin James needs a top of the market extension).

Converting the $5.5M roster bonus into a signing bonus, spread out over the final 4 years of the contract frees up over $4M of cap space this year. That might be all the Chargers opt to do with this contract to keep the dead cap at a minimum.

However, a full restructure of all 2022 compensation, with another void year added, can drop his 2022 cap hit all the way down to $4.44M, freeing up over $13M of cap space for the Chargers to utilize.

Positional Spending

The benefit of a great QB on a rookie contract is of course the ability to overspend a bit elsewhere. Keenan Allen & Mike Williams now represent $33.2M of combined 2022 cap dollars. Joey Bosa & Khalil Mack now represent a whopping $46M of combined 2022 cap dollars.

And the Chargers aren’t yet done.

Minimum Salaries

The minimum salary in MLB for the 2021 season was $570,500, by far the lowest in all of the big four American sports. The new CBA addresses this undervaluation:

2022: $700,000
2023: $720,000
2024: $740,000
2025: $760,000
2026: $780,000

Not only have the salaries increased, but the annual increase in each year of this CBA has grown as well. From 2017-2021, the minimum salary went from $535,000 to $570,500, a 6.6% increase versus what will now be north of 11%.

Note: The $700,000 minimum salary still ranks last among the Big 4 for 2022
NBA: $925,000; NHL: $750,000; NFL: $705,000; MLB: $700,000

Minor Leaguers with major league contracts also see a strong increase in their base pay. First year players saw a minimum salary of $43,000 last year, with all other minor leaguers on a $93,000 pay grade. That now increases to:

2022: $57,200; $114,100
2023: $58,800; $117,400
2024: $60,300; $120,600
2025: $62,000; $123,900
2026: $63,600; $127,100

The Competitive Balance Tax

New Thresholds (Maximums)
The 2021 season held a $210,000,000 threshold for team tax salaries. This was one of the biggest battles throughout the negotiation process, but the final numbers ended up at:

2022: $230M
2023: $233M
2024: $237M
2025: $241M
2026: $244M

The tax threshold jumps up 9.5% immediately per the new CBA, but offers just 1.3%-1.4% increases annually from there (despite the minimum salary increasing at nearly 3%, like any normal working wage should).

Tax Tiers & Payer Rates
Teams that go over the tax threshold are now subject to four tiers (previously three) that dictate how they’ll be billed accordingly. Simply, every $20M a team goes over, the more they’ll be billed. And going over in subsequent years will mean even more pain (despite the fact that only 2-3 teams per year have been going over the threshold at any capacity).

The $50M Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool

This was one of the bigger new asks from the MLBPA, and the resulting plan is both well thought out, and effective for the game’s current model.

In short, Pre-Arbitration represents a player’s first three seasons of service time in MLB. For the most part these players are earning, or slightly above, the league’s minimum salary. With this pool, players who well outperform these salaries will now be compensated via bonuses after the season (throwing a bit of a wrench into some of these team’s CBT calculations I imagine).

Pre-Arbitration Bonus Allocations

League MVP or Cy Young

• 1st: $2.5M
• 2nd: $1.75M
• 3rd: $1.5M
• 4th-5th: $1M

Rookie of the Year

• 1st: $750,000
• 2nd: $500,000

All-MLB Selection

• 1st Team: $1M
• 2nd Team: $500,000

WAR
The rest of the bonus pool will be allocated to the Top 100 WAR players in a given season (actual allocation breakdown to be confirmed by 7/1/22).

Note: If a player qualifies for two of these bonuses, he will only be awarded the highest possible payout. So Vlad Guerrero JR. winning rookie of the year ($750k), but also being selected to 1st-team All-MLB ($1M), would negate his ROY payment.

Arbitration

Contracts for all arbitration-eligible players will now be guaranteed, perhaps putting a bit more onus on extended these players to a multi-year contract versus just the one year tender.

Service Time Adjustments

While the 6 year requirement before free agency wasn’t addressed, a few small tweaks were built in to help a small percentage of players progress toward a payday.

• Pre-arbitration players who finish 1st or 2nd in Rookie of the year voting will automatically receive a full year of service (1.0), regardless of when those players were called up during that season.
• Teams who promote their top prospects for Opening Day (Pete Alonso with the Mets) will be rewarded with additional compensatory draft picks for their gesture.

Minor League Option Limits

Prior to this new CBA, MLB players were offered three seasons with “options”, essentially allowing a team to move to and from the minor leagues an unlimited amount of times within those three years.

While the three option seasons remain, there’s now a 5-move limit on how many times a player can be sent down. After 5 demotions, a player will need to pass through waivers in order to be sent down for the remainder of that season.

MLB Amatuer Draft Lottery

Essentially the only change implemented to improve “competitive imbalance”, the MLB Draft will no longer be ordered solely based on a team’s record from the previous season.

The first 6 selections in each draft will be determined by a lottery (essentially ping pong balls), allowing all 18 non-playoff teams a chance to vie for these picks. The percentage at which these 18 teams will be weighted (more ping pong balls) will be based on their previous year winning percentage.

Once the 6 picks are chosen via lottery, the remaining draft order will be set based on previous year winning percentage.

Also of note, the amateur draft will revert back to 20 rounds, and slot values (signing bonuses) will have annual increases after a two year hiatus due to the pandemic.

Expanded Playoffs

The MLB Postseason is expanded from 10 teams to 12 teams, effective immediately. A few notable takeaways:

• 163rd Game Tiebreakers are dead. Playoff spot tiebreakers will be decided based on a “system”, likely pulling from strength of schedule, divisional wins, run differential, etc…
• Wild Card Games are now a Wild Card Series. The Top 2 overall teams in each League get a Wild Card bye. From there, the 3rd seed plays 6, 4th seed plays 5 in a Best-of-Three series. The higher seed will host every game in this round.
• There will be no re-seeding when we get to the Divisional Round. The 1st seed will play the winner of the 4 / 5 matchup, and the 2nd seed the winner of the 3 / 6 series.

Roster/Schedule Changes

Universal DH
As expected, the Designated Hitter is now in place in both leagues, which should not only help NL batting averages rise, but also elongate a few more careers per year.

Roster Sizes
Roster sizes will remain at 26 players until September, at which time an extra two players will be added. Note: It should be assumed that for 2022, roster sizes may be adjusted to accommodate the expedited schedule.

Rule Changes
Though items like the pitch clock, banning shifts, etc…have not been immediately implemented, the opportunity for them to be has been expedited. Starting in 2023, a committee of active players, MLB execs, and an umpire will be tasked with considering gameplay alterations. Any change can be made effective within 45 days of notice to the MLBPA.

Doubleheaders & Extra Innings
Doubleheaders will be 9-inning games again, and extra inning games will no longer start with a runner at second base.

Games Schedule
Starting in 2023, the schedule will feature fewer divisional games, and every team will play at least one series against every other opponent, including in the other league. The exact format is still being determined.

The International Draft

This issue has been tabled for now, with a July 25th, 2022 deadline in place to negotiate its future. The negotiation will be VERY important from the player’s perspective for a few reasons:

• International players do not want this at all. The opportunity for dozens of players to receive a bonus and at least get a shot to make a camp tryout will be extinguished, as the draft will likely only offer this opportunity to a select few. There’s also a major concern that international communities simply do not have a structure in place to prepare for this type of formal process.
• If the MLBPA does not agree to implement the International Draft, then the current draft pick compensation tied to qualifying offers will remain in place, further jettisoning star player’s chances are getting the best deal possible in free agency.

Despite much less speculation this offseason in comparison to last, the Seahawks traded QB Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos, signaling the end to a fantastic 10 year relationship. We’ll discuss the details of the trade, what’s next for Wilson financially, & what’s left for Seattle going forward.

The Trade

Denver Receives

Russell Wilson (QB, 33)
As the key part of this cog, Russell Wilson brings along a 2 year, $51M contract, including cap & cash hits of $24M for 2022, $27M for 2023. Wilson is owed a $5M roster bonus on March 20th, so if a restructured extension is forthcoming, there’s some sense it may happen prior to that date.

2022 4th Round Pick (estimated #114)
The Broncos are now slated to pick back to back in Round 4. In total, they still maintain picks 64, 66, 75, 96, 113, 114, 137, 206, 222, 227 (exact picks estimated based on comps.)

Seattle Receives

Drew Lock (QB, 25)
Lock brings a 1 year, $1.45M, non-guaranteed, contract with him to Seattle. For now, he’s probably the odds on favorite to start Week 1, competing with Jacob Eason, and potentially Geno Smith (a pending free agent).

Noah Fant (TE, 24)
The talented tight end holds a $2.2M, non-guaranteed, salary for 2022, with a $6.85M option in 2023 that must be exercised by May 3rd (likely). He stands to thrive in a Seattle offense that has always held the position in high regard (when the right kind of playmaker exists). Gerald Everett & Will Dissly are pending free agents.

Shelby Harris (DT, 30)
Harris carries a 2 year, $17M contract with him to Seattle, including cash/cap hits of $8M for 2022, $9M for 2023. $5M of his 2022 salary is already fully guaranteed. He’ll replace pending free agent Al Woods on the defensive line.

2022 1st Round Pick (#9)
A draft deep with O-Tackles, Edge Rushers, & Cornerbacks should make this a very valuable pick for Seattle.

2023 1st Round Pick
This might be the big one. If the plan is to punt on taking or acquiring a new starting QB in 2022 in order to make a run at one of the major prospects in 2023, having capital to move up in that draft will be important.

2022 2nd Round Pick (#40)
Plenty of Day 1 starters are drafted here.

2023 2nd Round Pick
More ammo to move up?

2022 5th Round Pick (#144)

What’s Next for Seattle?

There are two immediate ways for this franchise to go:

• Continue to rip-it down with more trades and releases in the coming days, loading up on draft picks in order to fully rebuild this thing.
• Trim off some more fat, but hold on to the major pieces. Prepare for a tough 2022 season, with the intention of selecting the next immediate QB1 in the 2023 draft. Is starting Drew Lock the best way to secure a high 2023 pick?

Notable Financials

• Trading Wilson freed up $11M of cap from his contract ($37M starting point, $26M stays). That $11M went directly into the salaries of the 3 newcomers (Fant, Harris, Lock), who account for $11.6M of 2022 salary cap.
• The #9 pick should account for around $4.2M in cap, while the added #40 pick will tack on another $2M or so.
• Despite ample cap space, Bobby Wagner likely still falls off of this roster. It’s perfectly possible his replacement comes with the #9 pick. There’s $16.6M of cap space to be freed up by moving on. (Wagner was released 3/9)
• Speculation rose immediately after the Wilson move that Tyler Lockett could be next to move, but his contract makes this a difficult trade, as the deal holds $15.2M of signing bonus proration. Furthermore, a $13M option bonus that became fully guaranteed last month is set to be paid between March 16th - March 20th, meaning Seattle would need to get out from under this and trade Lockett immediately, taking on the $15.2M dead cap hit all in 2022. It's possible - but not likely.

What’s Next for Denver?

The Broncos have been preparing for a move like this for the past 18 months, with in-house extensions, a few notable releases/trade aways, and a new coaching staff. The offensive line is in pretty good shape, the secondary is exceptional, and the weapons have the potential to be as good as any in the league.

There are legitimate question marks on the defensive line and certainly on the edge, notably what the future holds for Bradley Chubb. With a projected $26M of cap space (and plenty more should Denver restructure Garrett Bolles, Justin Simmons, or even Wilson), there’s a reasonable expectation that the Broncos will be in the market for a major pass rusher this month. The likes of Chandler Jones, DeMarcus Lawrence, Frank Clark, or even the return of Von Miller could very much be on the table here.

What’s Next for Russell Wilson?

Will Wilson take a cue from Matthew Stafford and leave his contract alone for a year before re-upping with his new franchise? Generally speaking, it behooves the player to do so, as recency bias can work wonders in amplifying a negotiation. Stafford is likely days away from a $45M+ per year contract extension in Los Angeles, as the quarterback money continues to climb at a much higher rate than any other position.

From a valuation standpoint, Wilson currently projects to a 3 year, $128M extension in our system (tacked on to the remaining 2 years of his current contract. His production has suffered over the past two seasons, along with the Seahawks offense as a whole. With new weapons to play with in Denver, a rejuvenated Wilson easily finds himself in the $46M+ range, especially at just age 33.

Prediction: Wilson plays 2022 on his $24M salary, and signs a 4 year, $192M extension next offseason.

Last week the PGA announced the results for the inaugural Player Impact Program for 2021.

For the 2021 calendar year (Jan 1, 2021 - Dec 31, 2021) there was a $40 million bonus pool that would be split up amongst the top 10 finishers.

The Player Impact Program Score as defined by the PGA Tour:

1. Internet Searches: Number of times a player’s name is searched on the internet;
2. Earned Media: Number of unique news articles that include a player’s name;
3. Social Media: Social media score that considers a player’s reach, conversation and engagement metrics;
4. TV Sponsor Exposure: Duration (time) that a player’s sponsor logo(s) appears on screen during Saturday and Sunday PGA TOUR telecasts;
5. Awareness: A player’s general awareness score among broad U.S. population.

2021 Top-10 Finishers / Payouts

1. Tiger Woods, $8 million
2. Phil Michelson, $6 million
3. Rory McIlroy, $3.5 million
4. Jordan Spieth, $3.5 million
5. Bryson DeChambeau, $3.5 million
6. Justin Thomas, $3.5 million
7. Dustin Johnson, $3 million
8. Brooks Koepka, $3 million
9. Jon Rahm, $3 million
10. Bubba Watson, $3 million

Note: The 2022 bonus pool will increase from $40 million to $50 million.

UPDATED 4/29 PER A PROJECTED $128.1M 2023-24 LEAGUE CAP

Zion Williamson has finally made his way back to New Orleans for the next phase of his rehab. Williamson has missed the entire season due to a fracture in his right foot. Williamson spent several months rehabbing away from the team in Portland. Now, he’s back in New Orleans, but there’s still no timetable for his return.

At best, it seems like Williamson might play in 10 or so games this season. And that’s at best. If the uber-talented third-year forward doesn’t appear in games this year, he’ll have played in a grand total of 85 games over his first three seasons. 85 games. Or just three more games than one standard NBA season. And thus come the complications with Williamson’s next contract. All signs point to Williamson wanting a full max deal. The Pelicans may be reluctant to go there. Again, 85 total games. In three years!

What we’re going to do here is break down a few different options for Williamson and the Pelicans, as well as Williamson’s options if New Orleans were to trade him.

One note: Williamson has one year left on his rookie scale deal. He’s under contract to the Pelicans for $13,534,817 for 2022-23. Any new deals we are talking about here would start with the 2023-24 season. 

The Full Max

We’ve harped on the 85 games a bit, but those 85 games were pretty great. Williamson averaged 25.7 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists in those appearances. He’s been borderline dominant as an offensive player whenever we’ve seen him. If the health wasn’t a question, the Pelicans would likely give him a full max extension, without a question. Here’s what that would look like:

• 2023-24: $32,025,000
• 2024-25: $34,587,000
• 2025-26: $37,149,000
• 2026-27: $39,711,000
• 2027-28: $42,273,000
• Total: Five years, $185,745,000
  
  (based on a $128.1M 23-24 league cap)

This is a five-year extension with 8% raises. It starts at the full projected max of $32,025,000. This is the so-called “standard” max extension that the best players sign coming off their rookie scale contracts. The very best can also command a player option on that fifth season, a la Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell on their current contracts.

The Full Max with “Embiid Protections”

We’re not going to re-do the math here, because the contract would be the same as above, but with some important non-guaranteed money.

Back in 2017, Joel Embiid signed one of the more unique max extensions in NBA history. The Philadelphia 76ers and Embiid agreed to a deal with prior injury protections. If Embiid suffered a relapse with foot or back injuries, which had sidelined him during his first few seasons, the Sixers were able to waive him and get out of the max deal with minimal guaranteed money owed to Embiid before each of the final four seasons of the extension.

The key was that Embiid had to miss 25 games or play fewer than 1,650 minutes in the prior season. If that was the case, Philadelphia could waive him and get out of paying the remaining years of his contact.

Obviously, the above never happened and Embiid blossomed into one of the NBA’s most dominant players. He’s even gone on to sign a second max extension. But the 76ers were protected if things went sideways.

Could New Orleans and Williamson come to an agreement on something similar? It’s possible. They could put in protections for foot or knee injuries, both of which Williamson has had since coming to the NBA. But Embiid’s former deal remains unmatched since he signed it. It’s not just rare, it’s completely unique.

One other factor to consider: Embiid signed that extension with that specific language, because he and the 76ers had a great working relationship from the time he was drafted. Williamson and the Pelicans haven’t been in that spot. That alone could be enough to take this option off the table.

The Designated Player Rookie Extension

Another extension option for Williamson and the Pelicans is to sign an extension with Designated Player language. This is the type of extension that Luka Doncic and Trae Young both signed last offseason and will have kick in for the 2022-23 season.

Essentially, if Williamson comes back and has a monster 2022-23 season, he can qualify to jump from the 0-6 Years of Service/25% of the cap tier to the 7-9 Years of Service/30% of the cap tier. That deal would look like this:

• 2023-24: $38,430,000
• 2024-25: $41,504,400
• 2025-26: $44,578,800
• 2026-27: $47,653,200
• 2027-28: $50,727,600
• Total: Five years, $222,894,000
  
  (based on a $128.1M 23-24 league cap)

In order to qualify for the Designated Player Rookie Extension, Williamson would have to accomplish one of the following in 2022-23:

• Win MVP
• Win Defensive Player of the Year
• Make an All-NBA Team. This can be First, Second or Third Team.

It’s probably safe to take the first two out of the mix. But it’s not crazy to think Williamson could make an All-NBA team. Again, in a mostly-healthy 2020-21 season, he put up 27/7/4 on 61% shooting. Those are All-NBA type of numbers, especially if the Pelicans make the jump to being a playoff team.

The better question is: Would New Orleans even offer this? This is riskier than a standard max deal because of the roughly $36.8 million more in total salary over the life of the deal. What if Williamson had exactly one healthy, dominant season and then went right back to being injured on a regular basis? Talk about an albatross on your cap sheet.

The Extension After a Trade

Here’s where things get kind of interesting. There’s been extensive reporting that Williamson isn’t exactly happy in New Orleans. If the Pelicans can find a team willing to gamble that they can get him happy and healthy, they could cash in and trade Williamson before signing any sort of extension.

In this case, Williamson would still be eligible to sign any of the extension possibilities laid out above. This includes the Designated Player Rookie Extension. As long as a team acquires a player while they are still on their Rookie Scale contract, they inherit the ability to sign that player to a Designated Player extension.

Something else to keep in mind: It’s likely that Williamson is traded before he signs an extension OR that he’s traded after the extension kicks in with the 2023-24 season. Signing an extension this summer, then trading Williamson at any time during the 2022-23 would come with the “Poison Pill” challenge.

Since a player signed to a Designated Player extension can’t be traded for one year, we’ll use the standard full max extension as our example here.

Because Williamson would have a pending extension on the books, he’d count for his 2022-23 salary of $13,534,817 as outgoing salary for the Pelicans. For the acquiring team, Williamson would count for the average salary of all of the years he’s under contract. In this case, that would be $32,947,470.

That $19.4 million difference makes putting a trade together nearly impossible. Once the league year flips over to 2023-24, Williamson would count for his actual salary of $31,750,000 for both sides of a trade. And, of course, if he’s traded before an extension is signed, Williamson counts for the $13,534,817 salary on both sides.

Playing Things Out to Restricted Free Agency

There are two ways this could go. The first is fairly simple. The Pelicans and Williamson don’t reach agreement on an extension this offseason and he ends up set for restricted free agency in 2023-24. Nothing changes as far as the contracts the Pelicans can offer him, minus the ability to offer a Designated Player Rookie Extension. Because it would be a new contract, New Orleans can’t do the extension. However, if Williamson met the criteria, he would still qualify for the so-called “Rose Rule” and it would essentially be the same deal as the Designated Player Rookie Extension, in terms of salary and years.

And, as always, the Pelicans could offer him a standard full max contract, or an amount less than that.

Second, Williamson could sign an offer sheet with another team and force the Pelicans to either match it or let him walk. That offer sheet projects to look like this:

• 2023-24: $32,025,000
• 2024-25: $33,626,250
• 2025-26: $35,227,500
• 2026-27: $36,828,750
• Total: Four years, $137,707,500

This is a four-year max deal with 5% raises. Generally, an offer sheet includes all the bells and whistles to entice the incumbent to let the player walk. This deal would likely include a 15% trade bonus, a player option on the fourth season and probably some up front actual payments. The idea is to make it so that it’s as uncomfortable as possible for the incumbent team to match.

Signing the Qualifying Offer

This would be unprecedented for a player of Williamson’s stature. No first overall pick has gone this route. Either they’re such a bust that the team holding their free agent rights is ready to move on, or, more commonly, the player is good enough to get a shiny new deal.

It’s been mentioned that eventually some top pick is going to want to change teams badly enough that they won’t sign an extension, nor test the offer sheet process. In that case, the thinking is that player will simply sign their qualifying offer (a one-year contract for a pre-set amount) and then become an unrestricted free agent the following season.

For Williamson, his qualifying offer currently projects to be $17,595,263. If he signed that qualifying offer, he’d play the 2023-24 season for the Pelicans and then become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2024.

However, there is a very important caveat in Williamson’s case. In order to get that $17.6 million Qualifying Offer, he’d have to meet Starter Criteria. That means in 2022-23 (assuming he does not play at all this season), Williamson would have to start either 41 games or play at least 2,000 minutes. Given that he’s played a total of 85 games in three season and topped out at just 2,026 minutes in his one healthy season, there’s a risk Williamson won’t meet Starter Criteria.

If Williamson fails to meet Starter Criteria, his Qualifying Offer would drop to an amount equal to the 15^th pick of his 2019 draft class. (This was Sekou Doumbouya for those that are curious!) In that case, Williamson’s Qualifying Offer would drop to $7,744,600.

Signing the $17.6 million Qualifying Offer is risky enough that it’s unlikely. Signing one for nearly $10 million less would never happen. And it’s important to note that the Pelicans had even a whiff that Williamson might be looking at going the qualifying offer route, they control his starts and playing time. Teams have been known to hold players out, bring them off the bench or reduce their playing time in order to keep Qualifying Offers at a lower amount.

Summary

Zion Williamson’s pending extension talks may be the most fascinating in NBA history. Between his health issues, uneasy relationship with the New Orleans Pelicans and the current trend of players signing extensions and asking for a trade later, this could be a precedent-setting deal.

There are a few priors to consider here. We already covered Joel Embiid. The Sixers center had played in just 31 games when he signed his extension. Those 31 games were terrific, but the injury history gave us the most complicated maximum extension in NBA history. And that type of extension hasn’t been seen since.

A couple of years later, Ben Simmons signed a five-year, maximum extension despite having missed his rookie season. But he had appeared in 81 and 79 games in years two and three of his career. Not exactly the same territory as Williamson.

Markelle Fultz might be the closest comp we have for Williamson. He played in just 33 total games in his first two seasons with the 76ers. He was then traded to the Orlando Magic and played in 72 games in his third year. But given his injury history, and related relative lack of development, Fultz signed a three-year, $50 million extension. And that includes only $2 million in guaranteed money on the final season. It’s hard to imagine Williamson accepting an extension that small.

The other “sort of, but not exactly” player who can work as a comparison is Kristaps Porzingis. He had played in considerably more games than Williamson by the time he was extension eligible, but Porzingis was traded to the Dallas Mavericks while recovering from a torn ACL suffered in his third season. Even though Porzingis missed the entirety of his fourth season, he still signed a full five-year, max deal with the Mavs as a restricted free agent.

There really isn’t a great comp here. Embiid seems safest, but he and the 76ers were already inexorably linked through “The Process” by the time he inked his team-protected extension. There was none of the tension that Williamson and the Pelicans reportedly have.

Usually, we finish these pieces with a projection of what the next deal might look like. In this case, it’s truly impossible. We can comfortably rule out Williamson signing the Qualifying Offer. Given the health issues, it’s hard to believe Williamson will play enough next season to make an All-NBA team and qualify for the Designated Player Rookie Extension. So, we can probably rule that out too.

That leaves either a standard max (which could include the Designated Player language, just in case Williamson breaks out) or playing things out to restricted free agent.

It’s also possible things go the Kristaps Porzingis route. The Knicks were worried Porzingis would never get, and stay, healthy. They simply cut ties and traded him, as opposed to tethering their future to an injury-prone big man. The Pelicans could do the same. And they could do it early enough to leave Williamson time to ink an extension with an acquiring team. Or they could skip the extension and trade Williamson in-season, and let his new team handle his restricted free agency and a new contract as they see fit.

Anyone who tells you they know how this will go down either has a crystal ball, or is simply guessing. Zion Williamson’s next deal, or maybe even lack thereof, will be debated endlessly, because it is truly one of the most complicated contract cases in NBA history.

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Starting with the 2018 draft, 5th year options for all 1st round selections took on a very different calculation process. The big deciding factor now? Pro Bowls. The valuation process for the 5th year option is broken down into 4 tiers:

Tier 1: A player is selected to 2+ Pro Bowls in his first three seasons (original ballot placement only)
Tier 2: A player is selected to 1 Pro Bowl in his first three seasons (original ballot placement only)
Tier 3: A player does not garner a Pro Bowl berth, but plays in either 75% of snaps in 2 of 3 seasons, or an average of 50% over all 3
Tier 4: A player does not garner a Pro Bowl berth, nor does he meet the necessary playing time criteria