The Kings promised that Tyrese Haliburton was untouchable for this deadline, but as everyone knows - there’s always a price. 

Kings Acquire…

Domantas Sabonis, PF
Sabonis is under contract through 2023-24 with cap hits of $19.8M the rest of this year, $18.5M next year, and $19.4M to finish it off. The 25 year old is averaging 19 points, 5 assists, and 9 boards in 34 minutes per game this season.

Jeremy Lamb, SG
Lamb is an expiring contract, holding a $10.5M cap hit for the rest of 2021-22. The 29-year-old is posting 5 year lows in 2021, with just 7 points, 1 assist, and 2 boards per game.

Justin Holiday, SF
Holiday brings team-friendly cap hits of $6M & $6.3M respectively over this and next year. The 32-year-old has collected 11 points, 3 boards, & 2 assists in 2021-22 thus far, hitting over 41% of his shots.

2027 2nd Round Pick

Pacers Acquire…

Tyrese Haliburton, PG
The #12 overall pick in 2020 was rumored to be “untouchable” for this deadline, but the Pacers found the right price. Haliburton holds cap hits of $4M, $4.2M, & $5.8M through 2023-24, after which he’ll be eligible for restricted free agency. His ceiling offers major value for the Pacers going forward.

Buddy Hield, SG
Hield is in year 2 of a 4 year, $94M extension, bringing with him cap hits of $23M, $21.1M, & $19.2M through 2023-24. Buddy is posting 5 year lows in points (14), Assists (2), & Rebounds (4) thus far this season.

Tristan Thompson, C
Thompson offers an expiring contract, with a $9.7M to boot for the rest of 2021-22. His minutes and production have been rapidly declined over the past two seasons, currently sitting at 6 points, and 5 boards per game.

Financial Ramifications

The Pacers promised they would find a way to rip this current roster apart and start anew next season, and they’re well on their way to that with a few days left to spare. The Caris LeVert trade plus this move allows them to free up what could be $21M of cap space for the 2022 offseason, a good start to getting another key piece in the building to pair with Haliburton. Today’s move puts the Pacers right at the luxury tax threshold for 2021-22, suggesting there’s still another move to be made to free themselves from that burden.

The Kings’ added significant salary with Sabonis’ $38M of future salary, but it’s hard not to look at his production vs. contract and see a ton of value in adding this player to an overpaid De’Aaron Fox to try to restart this process on the fly.

The February 10th trade deadline finally heats up with a blockbuster move between the Portland Trailblazers, & the New Orleans Pelicans. The deal included 7 players and 3 picks (for now).

The Portland Trailblazers Receive…

The Pelicans 2022 1st Round Pick
As long as it lands between #5 & #14. If not, the pick will push out to a future year.

Two Future 2nd Round Picks
Details TBD

Josh Hart, SG
Brings with him a $12M cap hit to finish off 21-22, then a non-guaranteed $12.96M next season, and a $12.96M player option for 2023-24. The 26 year old is averaging almost 14 points, 4 assists, and 8 rebounds this year.

Tomas Satoransky, SG
Is an expiring contract with a $10M cap figure for 21-22. Satoranksy’s production has been minimal this year, with just 2 points, 2 assists, and 2 rebounds in 15 minutes per game.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, SG
The 23 year old #17 overall draft pick back in 2019 brings a $3.2M cap hit this year, and a $5M already exercised option for 2022-23 before restricted free agency eligibility. The youngster has posted nearly 13 points, 3 assists, and 3 boards thus far in 26 minutes per game.

Didi Louzada, SF
Louzada holds a $1.78M cap figure this year, and a guaranteed $1.8M next year before his non-guaranteed salaries kick in. He’s also amidst a 25 game suspension for a positive PED test.

The New Orleans Pelicans Receive…

C.J. McCollum, SG
The 30-year-old brings with him $30.8M cap figure, then fully guaranteed salaries of $33.3M, & $35.8M respectively through 2023-24. McCollum has posted 20 points, 4 assists, and 4 boards per game in around 35 minutes played. It should also be noted that he suffered a scary collapsed lung injury that kept him away for 18 Portland games. He earned $136.25M in 8.5 seasons with Portland.


Larry Nance Jr., PF
Nance holds a $10.7M cap hit for the remainder of 2021-22, then a small dip down to $9.6M for the 2022-23 season. The 29-year-old has posted 7 points, 2 assists, and 5 boards in 23 minutes per game this season.


Tony Snell, SG
The 30 year old brings a 1 year veteran minimum deal over to the Pelicans, which carries a valuable $1.6M cap hit for the remainder of the season. Snell has posted about a basket a game numbers in 14 minutes played thus far.

Financial Ramifications

The Trailblazers now sit with $17.3M of tax space this year, while the Pelicans are sitting with nearly $5.1M of tax space.

Portland sheds almost $80M of future cash, bringing back just $6.8M of future guarantees. This is a tale of one franchise beginning to break things down, and another (finally) pushing the gas pedal down. 

Portland gains a $21M trade exception per this move, and now has a chance to free up significant cap space this summer. If the plan is to keep Damian Lillard, they now have assets to add at least one significant (new) piece around him going forward.

Current Contract

Tom Brady’s contract has 1 year, $27.2M cash left, including a $20.2M cap figure for 2022. This includes an $8.925M base salary & $1.4M roster bonus, neither of which will be paid out now. It also includes $15M of signing bonus that was deferred from March 2021 to February 4th. We’ll get to this more in a moment.

Dead Cap Scenario

Brady’s contract carries $32M of dead cap for 2022, all of which would hit the Buccaneers cap table if the retirement is processed before June 1st. As this represents $12M of lost cap, this seems unlikely.

The most likely path forward is likely an immediate restructure to the remaining cash portion of this contract, reducing the base salary from $8.925M to $1.12M, removing the $1.4M roster bonus, and eliminating the $1.875M of likely to be earned incentives. This drops the cap figure from $20.2M, down to $9.12M. The Buccaneers will carry this cap hit on their active roster until June 1st, after which they can place Brady on the reserve/retired list.

By waiting until June, the Buccaneers will allow the $32M of dead cap to split up much more favorably across 2022 & 2023, to the tune of:
2022: $8M
2023: $24M

While the $24M dead cap hit for 2023 seems large (and it is), the NFL League Salary Cap is expected to rise immensely next season (and beyond) thanks to a huge influx of revenue from the recently agreed to Network/Streaming contracts. 

The Original Signing Bonus

The only real point of financial contention with Tom Brady retiring is the $20M signing bonus, of which Tampa Bay now has the option of recouping a maximum of $16M from. If the Buccaneers go this route, Brady would be required to pay back $4M in each of the next 4 seasons (2022-2025), with Tampa Bay getting $4M of cap relief in each following respective season.

However, as noted above, $15M of that $20M signing bonus has yet to be paid out, so there’s a path for Tampa Bay to simply not pay this out, and move forward from here.

My two cents? It’s a big chunk of change, but a $16M parting gift to Tom Brady for choosing their franchise and immediately taking them to the promise land seems like pretty good optics and business for the organization.

Career Earnings

Brady's final earnings won't be fully known until we understand how the Buccaneers will treat the signing bonus. If they recoup all $16M, the $292.9M figure currently showing on Spotrac will actually drop to $291.9M. If Tampa Bay elects to pay out the entire bonus as a gesture, his final on-field earnings will increase to $307.9M, easily the most all-time (for a minute).

The National Women's Soccer League and the NWSL Players Association have agreed upon the first-ever Collective Bargaining Agreement that run through the 2026 season with an investment of almost $100 million over the course of the CBA. The two sides had been negotiating with each other since March 2021 and the deadline to reach an agreement without having a work stoppage was Feb 1, 2022. 

A few of the key items reported include:

Investment in Players

• Minimum salaries will increase to $35,000 (60% increase); all players will received salary increases
• Compensation for housing, transportation, retirement contributions, heath/life/disability insurance
• Average total compensation will increase to $54,000 (30% increase)
• Revenue sharing, with 10% of net broadcast revenue (if league is profitable in years 3, 4, and 5 of the CBA)

Free Agency

Official free agency for players in the NWSL will begin in 2023 with a transition to Unrestricted and Restricted Free Agency in 2024.

2023

• Players with six (6) years of service in the NWSL will receive full Unrestricted Free Agency

2024

• Players with five (5) years of server in the NWSL will receive Unrestricted Free Agency
• Players with three (3) years of service in the NWSL will receive Restricted Free Agency

Defined Season

• Players will be give a fixed season with a specific start and end window
• A season will have a maximum number of games in a season
• Players are guaranteed 42 days of vacation
• Players will receive a seven-day in-season break

Health and Wellness

• League will employ the following:
  • Medical Director
• Teams will employ the following:
  • Team Physician,
  • Massage Therapist,
  • Sports Scientist,
  • Sports Psychologist,
  • Mental Health Clinician
• Players will receive parental leave (new birth or adoption)
• Mental health leave for up to 6 months for players who need it

Licensing

• NWSL will commit $255,000 - $300,000 in group licensing rights

The Rams & Bengals head toward Super Bowl 56 coming from two very different places. Our look at their 2021 financials, future cap, free agents, draft capital, & extension candidates going forward.

2021 Payroll Comparisons

In terms of active salary cap allocated in 2021…
Bengals: $154M (7th)
Rams: $121M (22nd)

In terms of actual cash spent in 2021…

Bengals: $194M (23rd)
Rams: $189M (26th)

In terms of 2021 Free Agent spending
Bengals: $136M (6th)
Rams: $7.7M (31st)

How the Starters were Acquired

Based on 11 offensive starters, 11 defensive starters, a kicker, & a punter
Both teams have found success in upgrading through free agency, while the Rams have simply forfeited draft picks for proven experience via the trade.

Bengals
Draft: 15 | Free Agency: 7 | Trade: 1 | UDFA: 1

Rams
Draft: 11 | Free Agency: 7 | Trade: 4 | UDFA 2

2022 Salary Cap

The current average amount of cap space for a team heading into the offseason is $15M. There's a stark contrast between the two 2021 finalists in terms of their offseason financial health.

Bengals: $56.3M
Cincinnati currently sits 4th in the league in projected Top 51 cap space for 2022, but only 36 players are currently under contract (will eventually be 90). Luckily, the list of starters or notable reserves out of contract are extremely limited, meaning the Bengals will be able to use their cap & draft capital to upgrade and apply depth across this roster. Moving on from Trae Waynes frees up another $11M as well.

Rams: -$8M
LAR is going to be running right up against the line for the next few seasons as they build through experience and not necessarily their (lack of) drafts. 7 players carry a cap hit north of $15M for 2022 currently, most of which will either restructure salary, or sign a restructured extension in the coming months to get the Rams on the right side of the cap for March. To name a few: Ramsey (base salary restructure clears $11M), Floyd (base salary restructure clears $12M), Donald (roster bonus restructure clears $4M).

Notable Free Agents

Rams (Full List)
Von Miller (OLB, 32)
Sony Michel (RB, 26)
Odell Beckham, Jr. (WR, 29)
Brian Allen (C, 28)
Austin Corbett (G, 26)
After handing away a 2nd and 3rd round pick for a half season of Von Miller, will the Rams feel obligated to extend the 32 year old? Sony Michel showed promise behind this run-first offensive line, but likely prices himself out of a return to LA, while the discussion for OBJ becomes much more complicated with each passing, productive week. He’s a fit for Stafford and Co., but can they financially fit him into an arsenal with Kupp, Woods, & Jefferson all healthily under contract?

Bengals (Full List)
Jessie Bates III (S, 24)
B.J. Hill (DT, 26)
Quinton Spain (G, 30)
C.J. Uzomah (TE, 29)

Jessie Bates’ stock plateaued a bit entering the 2021 season, but he’s been one of the most visibly necessary players on the field. He’s a franchise tag candidate ($13M), with eyes on a $16M+ per year extension. B.J. Hill & Quinton Spain can probably be upgraded upon (though Hill had a strong year), while Uzomah has clear chemistry with Burrow, but he’s an overpay candidate on the open market that could impact his ability to return.

Notable Extension Candidates

C.J. Uzomah, TE, CIN
Uzomah’s career feels a little like that of Jonnu Smiths, whom the Patriots just wildly overpaid for ($12.5M per year) this past offseason. Now looking for contract #3, a 3 year, $24M extension seems to make sense.

Jessie Bates, S, CIN
Bates has been one of the most impactful players on the field through this Cincy postseason run, peaking at the perfect time contractually speaking. He’s a $13M franchise tag candidates, with Harrison Smith’s $16M per year deal as a foundationally start point on a multi-year extension.

Matthew Stafford, QB, LAR
The good news? Acquiring Matthew Stafford helped bring the Rams back to the Super Bowl. The bad news? With just 1 year, $23M left on his current contract, he’s due for another major payday, and currently projects to a 4 year, $166M extension.

Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
Kupp has 2 year remaining on his current contract with the Rams, but carries cap hits of $18.6M & $18M respectively across that period. An extension not only helps lower the current hit, but will align him with Stafford’s new contract, and offers him a well-deserved raise all in one shot. Kupp projects to a 4 year, $95M extension currently.

Von Miller, LB, LAR
Valuing edge rushers over 30 years old has become a bit of a crapshoot, with J.J. Watt bagging $14M per year, and Melvin Ingram sitting on a near veteran minimum salary in 2021. Miller still has the production to garner a $10M+ contract, but taking less and structuring a team-friendly deal to remain in LAR seems like pretty good business for someone who’s already cashed $144M out of the league.

Odell Beckham, Jr., WR, LAR
Nobody’s going to hate this more than OBJ himself, but from a strictly numbers standpoint, his next contract projects to 2 years, $12M. There’s no question is abilities have been resuscitated in this Rams’ offense, but with significant capital allotted to Kupp & Woods already, sticking in LA almost certainly means less than desired dollars for Beckham Jr. If he hits the market, it’s very likely bad teams will be offering to double this kind of compensation.

Future Draft Picks

Bengals
2022: (Projected pick numbers) 31, 63, 95, 132, 140, 172, 209, 223, 249
2023: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
2024: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7

Rams
2022: 101, 139, 173, 211, 212, 213, 235, 250
2023: 2, 3, 5, 6, 6, 7
2024: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

There is a lot of reporting around the NBA that James Harden isn’t a lock to stay with the Brooklyn Nets following this season. Harden didn’t sign a contract extension before the start of the season, so that’s left the door open to speculation about what his future holds.

To add to the natural questions that come with any possible free agent, Harden has a readymade suitor waiting to acquire him.

The Philadelphia 76ers and President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey are known to want Harden. Philadelphia tried to land him last season, when Harden was traded from the Houston Rockets to the Nets. Morey and the Sixers don’t want to miss out a second time.

That gives Harden some flexibility with his next contract. It also gives him some flexibility in picking a destination. Well…to some extent. If Harden wants to get to Philadelphia, he’ll likely need Brooklyn and General Manager Sean Marks to play ball.

Let’s break down each of the possibilities for Harden, both before next week’s trade deadline and this summer.

The Straight Trade This Season

The 76ers would love to swap Ben Simmons for James Harden right now. That would allow Harden and Philadelphia to reach an agreement on a new contract in whatever form they wish. The options open to him with Philadelphia would be the same as they are with Brooklyn.

The challenge? The Nets are title contenders. So are the Sixers. Brooklyn isn’t going to help Philadelphia massively improve their immediate championship odds. The Nets would have to be enamored with Simmons, both for this season and beyond, to even consider it. And that doesn’t seem to be the case.

Basically: Forget about any sort of Harden trade happening in the next week or so.

Opting Out and Signing Elsewhere

We’re going to knock this one out very quickly, because it’s highly unlikely.

First, only three teams project to have cap space this summer (Detroit, Orlando and San Antonio) and none look like they’ll have enough space to give Harden his first-year maximum of $46.5 million.

That leaves Harden with a sign-and-trade as the possibility to change teams as a free agent. Because his salary for this season is above the maximum salary, Harden is in a unique position of being eligible to sign with another team for the same first-year salary as can get from Brooklyn. However, if Harden changes teams, even via sign-and-trade, he’s only eligible for a four-year contract vs the five-year deal he can get from the Nets. He’s also limited to 5% raises if he changes teams vs 8% if he re-signs with Brooklyn.

Here's what opting out and changing teams would look like for Harden:

• 2022-23: $46,526,382
• 2023-24: $48,852,701
• 2024-25: $51,179,020
• 2025-26: $53,505,339
• Total: Four years, $200,063,442

That’s leaving over $69 million on the table vs signing a five-year deal with the Nets. And it still involves Brooklyn helping Harden leave town. And the acquiring team would immediately become hard capped at approximately $151 million in team salary for the 2022-23 because they acquired Harden via sign-and-trade. That’s makes building out a contending roster extremely difficult.

Of all the options, this path is the most unlikely after a straight trade in the next week-and-a-half. This is because of the complexities involved with changing teams, as well as Harden leaving so much money on the table.

Opting Out and Re-signing with Brooklyn

In most cases, a player can make the most money by opting out and signing a new contract. In general, the cap rises faster than salaries do, making signing a new deal the best path.

For a couple of reasons, James Harden is in a unique spot where this doesn’t apply to him.

First off, Harden has been on a max salary for a while now, including being grandfathered into Designated Veteran Player status several years ago. That means his current maximum salary is nearly $5 million above the regular maximum salary for a 10+ year veteran ($44.3 million to $39.3 million).

Next, because of the pandemic, the cap isn’t going up as rapidly as previously anticipated. Most projections have the cap rising by a minimal amount for at least another year ($112 million to $119 million). That’s kept max salaries down somewhat; to a point where Harden’s maximum salary for 2022-23 remains almost $5 million above the regular 10+ year maximum salary.

Finally, because Harden is already above the maximum salary, he’s entitled to 5% bump in salary from this season’s $44.3 million to $46.5 million for 2022-23.

If Harden opted out and re-signed with Brooklyn for the max, his new deal would look like this:

• 2022-23: $46,526,382
• 2023-24: $50,248,493
• 2024-25: $53,970,604
• 2025-26: $57,692,715
• 2026-27: $61,414,826
• Total: Five years, $269,853,020

Yes…James Harden would get paid over $61 million in his age-37 season in 2026-27 in this scenario.

But…he won’t. Because opting out and re-signing isn’t the most lucrative path to maximize his earnings.

Opting In and Extending with Brooklyn

Here’s where things get interesting and really, really expensive!

Remember how we said Harden is in a unique situation because of how high his salary currently is? That applies in an extension as well.

In this scenario, Harden would opt in for $47.4 million for 2022-23. He’d then sign a four-year extension with the Nets this offseason, giving him five total seasons under contract. Like the opt out and re-sign option, this results in a contract running through 2026-27, but Harden would start at a higher first-year salary, which would push his deal to even more total money.

Here’s what opting in for 2022-23 and signing a four-year extension would look like:

• 2022-23: $47,366,760
• 2023-24: $49,735,098
• 2024-25: $53,713,906
• 2025-26: $57,692,714
• 2026-27: $61,671,522
• Total: Five years, $270,180,000

Yes…like before Harden would make over $60 million in his age-37 season in 2026-27.

This option starts to look like one of those massive Major League Baseball contracts where the aging star is getting paid long after he should be an everyday player. Albert Pujols anyone? Essentially, you are paying in the future for past performance.

This is the most lucrative path for Harden to maximize his earnings. That makes it the most likely path forward…unless Harden really wants to change teams to get away from Brooklyn.

Opting In, Traded and Extending with New Team

If Harden really wants to leave the Nets, the exact same contract as opting in and extending with Brooklyn is open to him if he opts in for 2022-23 and is traded. There are a couple of caveats though.

Harden wouldn’t be eligible to sign an extension with a new team for six months after being traded. But because he’d be in the final season of his deal in this scenario, he can sign that four-year extension at any point. Extensions only have to be completed in the offseason is more than one season is remaining on the contract. Expiring deals can be extended at any time.

The second, and more important caveat, is that his option allows Harden to maximize his earnings, while also preventing the acquiring team from becoming hard capped for the 2022-23 season. Because it would a be a straight trade vs a sign-and-trade, the hard cap wouldn’t come into play. That would make building out a contending roster far more viable, if still extremely expensive.

If Harden wants out of Brooklyn, this is the best, and most likely path forward.

Summary

There are basically five options for James Harden laid out above, in essentially ascending order of likelihood of happening. The sixth option is that Harden opts in for 2022-23, plays out the season on an expiring deal and becomes a free agent in 2023. But at his age, with a mounting injury history, that’s so unlikely it’s not even worth considering.

The best bet for Harden is to opt in for 2022-23 and either agree to an extension with Brooklyn or to force a trade and sign an extension six months later. That second option maintains the Nets as a title contender this season, without strengthening a rival. And it gives Marks and Morey time to figured out a trade package for this summer. If Brooklyn doesn’t want Ben Simmons, then Philadelphia can find a third team to route Simmons to, while getting value in the deal for the Nets.

Or, if the Nets play well and maybe win a title, Harden can opt in and re-sign and keep competing for championships alongside Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in the immediate future. It’ll be one or the two, as the chance to make nearly $275 million over the next five years is simply too alluring to pass up.

The rumors were bound to restart eventually, and Nathaniel Hackett officially becoming the Head Coach of the Denver Broncos today certainly did just that. So what does Aaron Rodgers' contract tell us about what his 2022 outlook is?

The Current Contract As Is (Very Unlikely)
Rodgers’ current deal contains 1 year, $27M cash left, none of it fully guaranteed at the moment (not until Week 1). However, the deal also contains $26.8M of dead cap stemming from the original signing bonus, a 2019 restructure and a 2021 restructure. Can Rodgers remain on this contract as is through 2022? A $46.6M cap hit says most likely not, as it will greatly impact the Packers ability to re-sign free agents and improve upon their roster this offseason.


The Current Contract, Restructured (Possible)
A discussion not being mentioned enough is the possibility that Rodgers will agree to come back to the Packers for 1 more season, but wants the ability to hit the open free agent market thereafter in 2023 - following in Tom Brady’s footsteps. This will require a restructure of his current base salary to reduce the $46.6M cap hit to a more manageable number. A full base salary restructure, while tacking on 4 void years to the back end of this contract, will drop the 2022 cap hit from $46.6M down to $25.8M, over $20M saved.

But would the Packers even want this? It’s strange to imagine Green Bay turning away from Aaron Rodgers if he wants to go the “1 and done” route here, but it’s a better business move for them to do so - unless they truly believe there’s a chance for a Super Bowl in 2022-23. Financially speaking the 2022 cap hit becomes a wash - either $26M of dead cap to trade him now, or $25.8M of active cap to have him back as QB1 for the season (after which a larger dead cap hit kicks in). But allowing Rodgers to walk into free agency without compensation seems like the wrong decision for the franchise. Rodgers is as valuable to a new team as he’s ever been right now, and the trade compensation packages being floated around the hot stove would allow the Packers to quickly rebuild in many facets of their roster, immediately. 


The Marriage Is Fixed, An Extension is Signed (?)
If the two sides agree that a few more years together makes sense, the conversation will quickly turn to just how that next contract should look. While there are an infinite number of possibilities in terms of cost and structure, I’ve gone with the one that Rodgers has always agreed to - a maximum contract. This time however, I’ve stripped it down to two new years (3 years total) - with a fully guaranteed structure. 2 new years, $92M of new money, a total of 3 years, $120M - fully guaranteed at signing.


New Money AAV: $46M (1st), Guarantees at Sign: $120M (1st).Void years help keep the cap hits somewhat “mild”, but there’s no question this is not exactly the most team-friendly contract out there. Call me crazy, but I don’t anticipate team-friendly being in Aaron Rodgers’ negotiation plans - yet.


An Early Offseason Trade (Likely)
If Aaron Rodgers is traded before June 1st, 2022, the Packers will take on a $26.8M dead cap hit for 2022, freeing up $19.3M of much needed space.


A Late Offseason Trade (Not Likely)
If the trade is processed after June 1st, 2022, the Packers will be able to split up the $26.8M of dead cap into $19.1M for 2022, and $7.6M in 2023, freeing up $26.9M of cap space in 2022 (but not until June 2nd).


An Outright Release (Ridiculously Unlikely)
The dead remains the same ($26.8M if released prior to June 1st, $19.1M/$7.6M if after), but they’ll eliminate all chance for compensation - including a compensatory draft pick. It’s a non discussion.


Rodgers Retires (Possible)
Until he speaks, this has to remain a possibility going forward. The financials become a little bit more complicated in this instance, as the Packers will want to use timing to make this work to their benefit. If Rodgers comes to the front office next month and tells them he’s hanging them up, Green Bay will do the following with his contract:

• Reduce his 2021 base salary to $1,120,000 (the veteran minimum)
• Eliminate his $500,000 workout bonus
• Carry the remaining $20.3M as an active cap hit until June 2, 2022
• Place him on the Reserve/Retired list on June 2, 2022, dropping the cap hit to $19.1M
• His $7.6M void cap will hit the Packers 2023 salary cap

This allows Green Bay to retain his rights through all of 2022 (meaning a team will still have to trade for him through this season to acquire him), while reducing the cap hits they hold for him down to the dead cap numbers only.

The NBA trade deadline is just over two weeks away. That means we’re full-on into posturing season. Phrases like “We can wait until the summer if we have to” and “It will take a lot to get him” are popular at this time of year.

But two weeks from the deadline is when things start getting serious. Most teams know who the real suitors are and who is just expressing interest. By this point, teams also have a fairly good handle on what realistic value is for the players they are open to trading. Most importantly, teams have a sense of what offers are on the table for their players. Things start to move relatively rapidly when the deadline gets close.

With all that in mind, here are 10 players to keep an eye on as the trade deadline approaches.

Ben Simmons

2021-22 Contract: $33,003,936
Remaining Contract: 3 years, $113,680,224
Interested Teams: Kings, Pacers, Hornets, Trail Blazers, Timberwolves, Cavaliers
Why should the 76ers trade him? It would be disingenuous to start with any other player. Ben Simmons has been on the block since the summer. He doesn’t want to be in Philadelphia anymore and the Sixers don’t seem to be overly upset with that idea. The issue has been finding a team to meet Daryl Morey’s exorbitant asking price. There’s also the fact that Morey doesn’t seem to feel pressure to move Simmons unless that price is met. And, finally, factor in Morey really seems to think he can reunite with James Harden this summer. That all seems to be holding up a Simmons deal, which is also helping to hold up the trade market as a whole.

Harrison Barnes

2021-22 Contract: $20,284,091
Remaining Contract: 1 year, $18,352,273
Interested Teams: Bulls, 76ers, Celtics, Jazz
Why should the Kings trade him? The Kings look like they are open to talking about trading anyone on their roster that isn’t De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton. Heck, those two might even be up for grabs, depending on who you believe. That means Harrison Barnes is certainly on the table. Barnes has had another solid season. As one GM put it “He can be your third best player if you need him to be. If you need him to be your sixth best player, he can be that too. No ego. Just wants to play and win.” That’s a guy teams should be lining up to acquire, especially when you consider he’s fairly paid for this year and next.

Jerami Grant

2021-22 Contract: $20,002,500
Remaining Contract: 1 year, $20,955,000
Interested Teams: Bulls, Lakers, Celtics, Jazz, Wizards
Why should the Pistons trade him? Jerami Grant was a major signing for Detroit in the 2020 offseason. He prioritized playing for the Pistons and was seen as a key part of their rebuild. A season-and-a-half later, Grant is on the trade block. Reports are that both Grant and Pistons have an understanding. If they can fetch a nice return, they will send Grant to a contender. Detroit won’t be ready to contend by the time Grant is a free agent again in 2023, so it makes sense for them to explore a trade. The challenge is that Grant wants a four-year extension approaching $30 million per season. That’s a big chunk of change for a player who most teams see as a high-end starter, but not a true star.

Robert Covington

2021-22 Contract: $12,975,471
Remaining Contract: Unrestricted Free Agent in 2022
Interested Teams: Jazz, Bulls, Lakers
Why should the Trail Blazers trade him? Portland is caught in the “Bird Rights Trap” with Robert Covington and the next players on this list, Jusuf Nurkic. The Blazers don’t have the ability to replace either player if they leave as free agents, because Portland is capped out. But signing either one to a long-term, expensive contract could turn sour very quickly. Covington’s shooting has dropped just enough, that it’s probably time for the Trail Blazers to sell as high as they can get a player under contract for at least a couple of seasons to replace him.

Jusuf Nurkic

2021-22 Contract: $12,000,000
Remaining Contract: Unrestricted Free Agent in 2022
Interested Teams: Nets, Hornets, Warriors, Bucks
Why should the Trail Blazers trade him? Like Robert Covington, Portland has to be careful how they handle Jusuf Nurkic’s situation moving forward. Unlike Covington, the Blazers don’t have a built-in replacement already on their roster for Nurkic. But that shouldn’t keep them from exploring moving the big man. The center market can be tricky, because so many teams no longer prioritize the position. The good news for Portland? The handful of teams that need a center, really need a center. And there aren’t very many on the market. That could net the Trail Blazers a nice return for a player that isn’t likely a part of their long-term future.

Dennis Schroder 

2021-22 Contract: $5,890,000
Remaining Contract: Unrestricted Free Agent in 2022
Interested Teams: Cavaliers, Bulls, Mavericks
Why should the Celtics trade him? Dennis Schroder’s availability is a little complicated. If Boston can finally turn things around and bank some wins over the next two weeks, they may not trade him at all. He’s a key rotation player at a position of need for the Celtics. On the flip side, if Boston keeps floundering around .500, a backup scoring point guard is a luxury. And Schroder is likely leaving town at the end of the season anyway. Contenders are always looking for bench scoring and backup guard help. That should net the Celtics at least a small asset in return, while freeing up minutes for a younger player the rest of the season.

Caris LeVert 

2021-22 Contract: $17,500,000
Remaining Contract: 1 year, $18,796,296
Interested Teams: Cavaliers, Lakers, Jazz
Why should the Pacers trade him? This entry could, and would, have featured Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner had they both not suffered injuries recently. While Indiana would still trade them, their health makes their markets uncertain. That leaves Caris LeVert as the Pacers player that is most likely to move. Indiana has done all but hang an “Everything must go!” sign in the window at this point. They aren’t blowing it up, but the Pacers are certainly resetting things. That leaves LeVert as a luxury and someone Indiana should be able to get a decent return for, given a handful of teams need scoring/offense-creation help around the league.

Christian Wood

2021-22 Contract: $13,666,667 Remaining Contract: 1 year, $14,317,459
Interested Teams: Nets, Hornets, Warriors
Why should the Rockets trade him? The answer here is: The Rockets should not trade Christian Wood. He’s young enough, versatile enough and signed to a good enough contract that Houston should be keeping Wood. He fits in nicely with their young building blocks. But if the Rockets are looking a couple years out, when they’re likely be moving towards playoff contention, they may not see Wood as a part of that mix on a new, more expensive contract. If so, now is the time to move him. Because Wood is signed through next season, that’s attractive for a contender. They get the rest of this year, plus a bonus year. If Houston moves Wood, they could snag the biggest non-Simmons-related return of all players moved at the deadline.

Eric Gordon 

2021-22 Contract: $18,218,818
Remaining Contract: 2 years, $40,486,262 (only $19,568,360 in 2022-23 is guaranteed)
Interested Teams: Nets, Lakers, Bulls, Jazz
Why should the Rockets trade him? Unlike with Christian Wood, Houston should be looking to move Eric Gordon. He overlaps positionally with some of the Rockets best young players and by the time Houston is ready to push for the playoffs, Gordon will likely have aged out. Because of the additional years, the Rockets can’t expect a massive return. But getting off that money would help free up some flexibility for the 2022 offseason

Terrence Ross

2021-22 Contract: $12,500,000
Remaining Contract: 1 year, $11,500,000
Interested Teams: Lakers, Bulls, Jazz, Celtics, Cavaliers, Wizards
Why should the Magic trade him? Terrence Ross was the last man standing when Orlando tore down their roster last trade deadline. This season, he’ll probably be the next one moved. The Magic have a ton of young players who can play the two and three, so they don’t have a need for Ross. Contenders are always looking for bench scoring and shooting, so Orlando should get a decent return. It might not be the first-round pick they want, but two good second-rounds seems likely. Bonus: Look for the Magic to also move Gary Harris. If they’re willing to take back a little questionable salary into 2022-23 and beyond, Orlando might even get a first-round pick in a Harris trade.

Notable Links:

NBA Trade Tracker

NBA Transaction Wire

It's long been said that the second a quarterback signs a maximum level contract extension, his respective team's ability to remain in contention vastly decreases. And while recent data and trends do allude to that (no player with the highest average salary in the league has ever won the Super Bowl), the Bills & Chiefs just battled to the playoff death with respective quarterbacks sitting on $43M+ contracts.

So how have the Chiefs reached 4 straight AFC Conference Championships, despite the last two being clinched with their QB1 on a $450M contract extension?

Structure (view the full contract).

The cap isn't totally a myth (Saints, Eagles & Steelers fans know it eventually comes home to rob you in the end), but it's more flexible than an other financial metric in sports. It can be massaged, pushed around, piled up in one bunch, or even traded away in certain instances. 

The reality of Patrick Mahomes' contract extension is that it really doesn't start to get interesting from a cap & cash standpoint until 2022. Mahomes has earned just $33.7M cash over the first two seasons of his new contract - just $6M more than he would have reeled in had he stayed on his rookie contract through all 5 years. His 2020 cap figure was just $5.3M. His 2021 cap figure, following a $21M restructure, was $7.4M. His 2022 cap figure currently sits at $35.8M, but another restructure can drop that down to $13.8M - handing his team another $22M of cap space to work with next season. 

So this all sounds great, but the Chiefs are just pushing this down the line and delaying the inevitable, right? Right. That's exactly what's happening here. This is the window to push everything out of the way and keep pressing. Mahomes & his camp know he can't step onto a field and win 21 games on his own, and if the front office continues to do their job, moving cap around for Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, and some of the O-Lineman will continue to be an annual tradition - as long as the roster still smells like a contender. 

So when will things start to get dicey with this contract? If the 2022 restructure happens as I've laid out (convert his $27.4M roster bonus into signing bonus), this will create a $52.2M cap charge in 2023! Again, there's a $34.4M roster bonus to be restructured as needed (and a massive roster bonus each and every year through 2031), but eventually enough will be enough. There will be a thick black line drawn soon defining the current window (and significant, expensive pieces), and the next window - both of which will include Patrick Mahomes, and this gigantic contract. 

How long will Mahomes truly stay in this contract? The structure of it makes it purely his decision. With early guarantees built in all the way through, the Chiefs truly have no "easy" out with this deal, but it stands to reason that at some point, Mahomes and KC will agree to cut this thing off and start anew - both for team cap purposes, and for cash flow adjustment. 

Current Contract Yearly Cashflow Rank:
Year 1: $10.9M (210th)
Year 2: $33.7M (57th)
Year 3: $63.1M (24th)
Year 4: $103.6M (12th)
Year 5: $141.5M (5th)
Year 6: $183.5M (2nd, Allen)

When you look at the contract through this lens, it's clear as day just how middle-back loaded it is. There are left tackles and edge rushers and wide receivers ahead of Patrick Mahomes' 3-year cash payout. His own teammate Frank Clark earned $65.2M across his first three seasons. Dak Prescott's $126M is literally double the 3 year payout that Mahomes' agreed to. Current NFL Contract Cumulative Cash Flow

My guess for when the two parties force their way out? Prior to the 2027 season. This will give Mahomes $225M over 7 years of this contract (still with $252M to go). The 2027 season is currently slated for a whopping $59.95M cash. It stands to reason that much of this can be converted into a restructured extension signing bonus, ripping up the rest of the contract and structuring it to be a little more "player-friendly) for the second act to his career, when this current iteration of the Chiefs should be gone, if not dwindling down.