With the November 5th NFL trade deadline just a month away, the hot stoves are already burning strong with potential candidates. We’ll dive into five players being discussed early on, including their contract statuses now and in the future.

WR Davante Adams (31, Raiders)

2024: $13.5M remaining ($968,333 less per week, $8.6M at the deadline)
2025: $36.25M (non-guaranteed)
2026: $36.25M (non-guaranteed)

The Raiders appear poised to grant Adams’ trade request this month, but they may need to retain some of this remaining salary to secure the type of draft compensation (2nd Rd pick) they are reportedly asking for. A few notable teams (Washington, Dallas, & the Jets) could slide Adams’ salary into their current books without disruption. The WR-needy Chiefs would need to process a salary conversion or two to make things work. While Buffalo, another team with interest, doesn’t have a path to free up even half of what Adams is owed for the rest of 2024.

LB Haason Reddick (30, Jets)

2024: $11M ($791,666 less per week, $7.1M at the deadline)
2025: UFA

Reddick has yet to report to the Jets, forfeiting/owing over $9M of salary & fines per his holdout. The pending free agent with 27 sacks over the past 2 seasons is seeking a multi-year extension from NY. The Jets have already given up a 3rd round pick in 2026 for this debacle (would convey to a 2nd with 67.5% snaps + 10 sacks this year), so any kind of trade would likely need to offset this as much as possible. There’s a world where the Jets pay this salary down a bit (since they’ve paid him nothing to date) in order to secure a healthy draft pick from a team like Arizona or Seattle, who are better positioned to hand Reddick the contract extension he’s looking for.

Of note: Reddick must report to the Jets (or his new team) by the Tuesday following the tenth week of the regular season, at 4:00 pm New York time, or he will be ineligible to play football in 2024, and his salary will toll to 2025. The Jets will retain his contractual rights into the offseason, further complicating Reddick’s future.

WR Amari Cooper (30, Browns)

2024: $941,111 ($67,222 less per week, $604,998 at the deadline)
2025: UFA

Cooper and the Browns have been rumored toward a split for the better part of 2024, which made an $18.79M salary conversion at the end of August somewhat puzzling. Yes, it makes for a hell of a clean trade offer, but it also means $19M paid to a player that you only kept for a few weeks this season.  

S Budda Baker (28, Cardinals)

2024: $11M ($788,888 less per week, $7.1M at the deadline)
2025: UFA

Baker has been included in trade rumors for the better part of 2 seasons, but he’ll finish out his 5 year, $62.6M contract in totality (a rarity in the NFL for contracts of or around this size). He remains a Top 20 safety in all of football according to PFF, so there will be plenty of interest from a football standpoint. But his deadline salary is on the higher side for most contending teams to swallow. The Cardinals may be inclined to take on salary and buy themselves a draft pick as they continue to rebuild around Kyler Murray.

QB Bryce Young (23, Panthers)

2024: $711,666 ($50,833 les per week, $457,500 at the deadline)
2025: $4.2M (guaranteed)
2026: $5.9M (guaranteed)
2027: Club Option

Young likely won’t be any team’s answer to band-aiding an injury for the rest of 2024, but getting him into a new regime to ensure he has a full offseason (and then some) to get up to speed on his new surroundings does make a lot of sense. Teams like Las Vegas, New York, & Tennessee, to name a few, could have interest in this idea before it’s all said and done.

2024 Playoff Teams

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Los Angeles Dodgers (#5 Payroll)
Obviously this ranking is heavily suppressed by the $68M annual deferral in Shohei Ohtani’s historic contract, but the Dodgers still moved up a spot from their 6th place 2023 ranking with an aggressive offseason across the board, & won the NL pennant despite a rash of injuries to their pitching staff.

Philadelphia Phillies (#4 Payroll)
The Phillies have carried a Top 5 payroll each of the past 4 seasons and now possess 6 contracts of $100M or more, and their entire starting roster is on the books for 2025 as well.

Milwaukee Brewers (#21 Payroll)
The Brewers shed a coach, an ace, and a few notable bats this offseason - and still won the NL Central by 10 games. They’ll have the resources to be aggressive this winter if they choose.

San Diego Padres (#15 Payroll)
Despite a bounty of expensive veteran contracts, the Padres amazing stretch run was sparked by a youth movement in 2024. There’s potential for real staying power with this roster going forward. San Diego has held a Top 5 payroll for the past 3 seasons, but find themselves in the middle of the pack to finish the 2024 campaign.

Atlanta Braves (#6 Payroll)
The Braves regular season might be defined by injuries, but they’ll have a say in the postseason regardless. Atlanta will see a significant portion of their starting rotation and bullpen hit the open market this winter, so look for an aggressive offseason (again).

New York Mets (#1 Payroll)
The league’s top payroll snuck into the backend of the postseason with one of the crazier regular season games in recent memory. The Mets carried $87M of retained salary this season, which is more than the Pirates or A’s allocated to their entire payrolls this year alone. They’ll have plenty of decisions to make with their starting pitching & the Polar Bear this winter.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

New York Yankees (#2 Payroll)
It wasn’t always pretty, but the Yankees were steadily one of the best teams in the American League for most of 2024, and should be considered a prohibitive favorite this month. Juan Soto has been a dream fit in this lineup (and stadium). Will it continue after 2024?

Cleveland Guardians (#23 Payroll)
Projected by many to miss the playoffs altogether, Cleveland found magic in a young starting rotation and held on for dear life down the stretch to capture another AL Central title, and the 2 seed in the AL. Only two players on this team carry a salary north of of $10M in 2024, and one of them (Shane Bieber) was on the shelf for the entire season: Value-based winning at its finest.

Houston Astros (#3 Payroll)
One of the most expensive Astros teams in franchise history turned an extremely slow start into yet another AL West title this season. Houston held the 3rd most cash allocated to the Injured List in 2024, but found lightning in a bottle in many areas of the roster yet again. They’ll enter October with more injury questions, but shouldn’t be counted out (obviously).

Baltimore Orioles (#22 Payroll)
The Orioles answered the “did they do enough this offseason/deadline” question loudly but sliding miserably back to earth down the stretch. This team is young and talented enough to flip the switch in October and make an Arizona-like run in 2024 if a few bounces go their way. Look for a much more aggressive front office this winter (maybe).

Kansas City Royals (#20 Payroll)
The Royals pieced together a lot of “what-if” veterans this past winter to fall in around clear as day stars in Bobby Witt Jr.. and Vinnie Pasquantino. For the most part, their offseason risks paid off - though things got a little rocky through the dog days of 2024. Witt Jr. might need to be all-world to keep them alive in October, but this is a must-watch franchise this coming winter.

Detroit Tigers (#26 Payroll)
The Tigers were dead to rights halfway through 2024, but made a remarkable turnaround to sneak into October in the season’s final week. Sure-bet Cy Young Tarik Skubal & breakout star Riley Greene appear to be cornerstone pieces for a franchise that has been cursed by top of the draft busts over the past few iterations. The time to start spending in Detroit may be here.

How the Top-Paid Players Fared

Shohei Ohtani (DH, Dodgers)

Contract APY: $70M
Adjusted APY: $46M

Let’s get the asterisk out of the way ($2M cash today, $68M cash later). If he were earning all $70M in 2024, would anyone even blink an eye? Two things are true about Shohei Ohtani: He’s historically great & having him in the postseason is better than not. He’s locked up through the 2033 season.

Aaron Judge (OF, Yankees)

Contract APY: $40M

Nearly 2 years out from signing his 9 year, $360M deal to remain in NY, Judge posted his best all-around season to date, finishing 2024 with a .322 batting average, 1.159 OPS, 58 homers, 144 RBIs, & a whopping 10.82 WAR. Dropping Juan Soto ahead of him in the lineup worked about as well as we all thought it would. Judge is under contract through the 2031 season (with no opt-outs available).

Jacob deGrom (SP, Rangers)

Contract APY: $37M

The Rangers have now paid deGrom $70M for 9 starts (including just 3 in 2024), but better days appear to be on the horizon. The 36-year-old has 3 years, $115M remaining on his contract.

Gerrit Cole (SP, Yankees)

Contract APY: $36M

Cole just finished his 12th regular season, and his 11th with an ERA below 4.0 (3.41 in 2024). Injury held him to just 17 starts this year, but he was as effective (and valuable) as ever for a Yankees team looking to make a deep run in October. The 34-year-old has an opt-out available this winter, but the Yankees can void it with an extra $36M salary tacked on in 2029 (a likely outcome).

Mike Trout (OF, Angels)

Contract APY: $35.5M

The last time Mike Trout played 150 regular season games was 2016. The 33-year-old has now seen action in just 111 games over the past two seasons (including just 29 in 2024), which could make the next 6 years, $212.7M pretty uncomfortable for the Angels.

Top Offseason Signings

(See Ohtani above.)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP, Dodgers)

12 years, $325,000,000

The 25-year-old free agent out of Japan posted a 3.00 ERA  (1.71 WAR) in 18 starts for the Dodgers this year, while also missing 4 months due to a shoulder issue. He’s locked in through 2029 before his first of two opt-outs becomes available

Bobby Witt Jr. (SS, Royals)

11 years, $288,777,777

Well that worked out. The #2 overall pick back in 2019 broke onto the scene in 2023, but broke into the MVP conversation in 2024 (.332/.389/.588/.977, 32 HRs, 109 RBIs, 31 SBs). He’ll earn $48.7M combined over the next 4 seasons (buying out his remaining team control) before things ramp up in 2028.

Aaron Nola (SP, Phillies)

7 years, $172,000,000

Nola returned to Philly on a deal that now guarantees him over $228M earned on the field throughout his career. He responded with a very Nola-like season (3.57 ERA, 3.60 WAR, 33 starts) helping the Phillies garner the #2 seed this October. Nola’s deal contains no options through 2030.

Will Smith (C, Dodgers)

10 years, $140,000,000

Smith has started 370 games for the Dodgers in the past three seasons. He’s both incredibly reliable & productive, posting yet another 20 HR, 75 RBI campaign in LA. The 29-year-old is locked in through 2033 with no options.

Tyler Glasnow (SP, Dodgers)

5 years, $136,562,500

The injury bug stuck with Glasnow per his move out West, as Glasnow missed the better part of 2 ½ months this season due to back and elbow injuries. He’s one of the game’s best when healthy, but it might be a rollercoaster ride through the next 4 years, $111M+.

Jung-hoo Lee (OF, Giants)

6 years, $113,000,000

The 25-year-old outfielder out of South Korea saw only 158 plate appearances this season before a  shoulder injury ended his season. He’s locked in through 2027 before a player opt-out becomes available.

Played into a Payday

Juan Soto (OF, Yankees)

Current Projection: 14 years. $514M

Soto finished 2024 with 41 HRs, 109 RBIs, and a near 8 WAR for the Yankees, linking up with Aaron Judge as the best 1-2 punch in the game. There will be a bidding war (despite the $500M valuation), but it’s hard to imagine the Yankees losing out in the end.

Teoscar Hernandez (OF, Dodgers)

Current Projection: 3 years, $72M

Hernandez posted a career year after (somewhat surprisingly) joining LAD on a 1 year, $23.5M deal. It’s impossible to imagine he won’t secure a multi-year guarantee this time around.

Max Fried (SP, Braves)

Current Projection: 6 years, $136M

Fried’s overall production was a little less consistent in 2024 than it’s been in recent years, but the resume as a whole speaks for itself as he enters the open market for the first time. He’ll join Corbin Burnes as the pre-eminent starter options in free agency.

Willy Adames (SS, Brewers)

Current Projection: 6 years, $152M

A shortstop who hits for power and all of a sudden decided to start stealing bases? Insert dollar sign emoji. A return to Milwaukee on something team friendly is certainly possible, but Adames will have big boy offers to change cities this winter if he so desires.

Alex Bregman (3B, Astros)

Current Projection: 4 years, $120M

Bregman just finished a 5 year, $100M contract in Houston and continues to post above average production with ridiculous consistency (pencil him in for a .260 average, 25 HRs, & a 4+ WAR every April). There will be a big push to keep Bregman an Astro for life, but the corner infield market this winter is weak.

QB Dak Prescott & the Dallas Cowboys agreed to an historic extension at the 11th hour of the offseason, finalizing a 4 year, $240M contract that includes $231M guaranteed for practical purposes. Spotrac dives into the full details of this new deal, which was (aggressively) negotiated by agent Todd France of Athletes First.

The Contract Terms

The new years/new money terms of the deal clock in at 4 years, $240M through the 2028 season. Prescott had $29M remaining on his previous contract (an additional $5M was already paid out in March when a small cap conversion was processed). So in full, this now becomes a 5 year, $269M contract.

The $240M new money value clocks in 8th among NFL contracts, but easily surpasses his own $160M deal as the largest contract in Dallas Cowboys history.

The Average Salary

The new average annual value on Prescott’s deal was always going to start with a “6” thanks to a plethora of leverage. At $60M per year for new year/new money purposes, Dak becomes the highest average paid player in NFL history by $5M. And by keeping this extension fairly short & sweet (also to his benefit), the total value AAV ($269/5 years) remains extremely competitive ($53.8M). For comparison, Joe Burrow’s total value AAV is just north of $44M.

When plugging this AAV into the current salary cap landscape, things actually change a little bit. While nearly every other aspect of this contract ranks 1st all-time, that can’t be said for the AAV % of League Cap metric.

Largest Percent of League Cap at Signing

1. Joe Burrow, 24.47%
2. Josh Allen, 23.56%
3. Dak Prescott, 23.49%
4. Justin Herbert, 23.35%
5. Lamar Jackson, 23.13%

In order to surpass Burrow here, Prescott would have needed to sign a new year/new money contract that averaged $62.5M per year. I bet he’s just fine & dandy securing $231M guaranteed instead.

The Guarantees

Prescott’s latest blockbuster includes $129M fully guaranteed at signing, by way of an $80M signing bonus, $1.25M 2024 salary, & $47.75M 2025 salary. This guarantee at signing number ranks 6th in the league, and it’s $17.51M less than Joe Burrow’s $146.5M with Cincy. The $80M signing bonus is an NFL high by $5M.

Largest NFL Signing Bonuses

1. Dak Prescott, $80M
2. Jordan Love, $75M
3. Jared Goff, $73M
4. Lamar Jackson, $72.5M
5. Dak Prescott, $66M

Next March 16th, another $40M (his 2026 salary) becomes fully guaranteed, while all $45M of his 2027 salary will lock in on the 5th league day of 2026. Finally, $17M of Dak’s 2028 salary will become fully guaranteed on the 5th league day of 2027. All $102M of this future money is guaranteed for injury at signing, and it brings the practical guarantee value on this contract up to $231M - $1M more than Deshaun Watson’s $230M fully guaranteed. This is very much, not an accident.

Largest Total Guarantee in NFL History

1. Dak Prescott, $231M
2. Deshaun Watson, $230M
3. Joe Burrow, $219M
4. Justin Herbert, $218M
5. Trevor Lawrence, $200M

In other words, $231M of Dak Prescott’s $269M total value contract is guaranteed for practical purposes. That near 86% is an elite rating for contracts of this size.

The Cash Flow

After being paid $5M this past March by way of a salary cap conversion, Dak will now reel in an additional $81.25M this season ($80M signing bonus, $1.25M base salary).

The new 2-year payout is $129M ($17.25M more than anyone) else, while the 3-year payout of $169M is $13.75M more than Lamar Jackson.

With the exception of a “little bit of fluff” built into the final season ($55M cash in 2028), absolutely everything about this contract’s cash flow is top of the market. Again - leverage.

The Salary Cap

Prescott entered the offseason with a $59,132,647 cap hit for 2024. Dallas converted $5 million of his base salary into a signing bonus, dropping the figure to $55,132,647. Had Dak played the year out on this figure, it would have represented the largest single season cap hit in NFL history, slightly more than Russell Wilson’s $53M dead cap hit with the Broncos for 2024

The new contract lowers Dak’s 2024 salary cap figure down to $43.3M, freeing up $11.8M of space for the Cowboys. Things get wild thereafter however:

Dak Prescott’s Salary Cap Hits
2024: $43.3M
2025: $89.8M
2026: $68M
2027: $62M
2028: $72M

As you can see, the Cowboys will need to massage this deal quite a bit to keep themselves afloat elsewhere, beginning with the 2025 offseason. A simple base salary restructure next year will open up over $37M of cap space, but the process of pushing cap into future (and voidable) years will once again begin. (Dallas rolled over $40.1M of dead cap from the last deal into this new deal because of bonus proration).

The Clauses

As he did in his previous extension, Prescott secured a full no-trade clause over the entirety of this new contract, affording him about as much control as possible as a player in the NFL.

Also per his previous contract, the new deal contains 4 void years (for salary cap conversion purposes). The void date in 2029 comes after the end of the tag window that offseason, giving him a no-tag clause as well.

The Practical Contract

It’s been awhile since we’ve written about a contract in which the practicality of that contract almost matches the entirety of it - but here we are. Dak has secured early vesting guarantees in ALL FIVE of his future seasons, finishing with a $17M lock on his 2028 salary.

If the wheels fall off, the Cowboys can walk away from this after 4 years - but they’ll owe Prescott a $17M cash payment to do so. The much more likely outcome is that Dak is still Dallas’ best option at QB1 after 2027, and we’re all deep into the next contract negotiation discussion (with a league salary cap well north of $300M by then). Prescott will be 34 years old at this juncture.

It’s clear that a few things were in play here when negotiating Dak’s latest deal:
1) Top out the standard metrics”
2) Usurp the Deshaun Watson guarantee
3) Keep open a path to a 3rd blockbuster extension
4) Regain leverage & control

It’s not entirely clear why the Dallas Cowboys continue to operate in this “last minute” fashion, but it sure does work out well for all players & agents involved.

After a 6-month standoff that may not have gotten anyone anywhere in the long run, the San Francisco 49ers & WR Brandon Aiyuk agreed to a 4 year, $120M contract extension this week, keeping the 26-year-old on the books through the 2028 season.

Contract Terms

Aiyuk’s $120M new money extension represents the 5th largest value among Wide Receivers sliding in just under Amon-Ra St. Brown’s $120.01M deal in Detroit. It’s also the 4th largest contract ever handed out by the San Francisco 49ers:

Nick Bosa ($170M)
Trent Williams ($138.06M)
Jimmy Garoppolo ($137.5M)
Brandon Aiyuk ($120M)
Colin Kaepernick ($114M)

Signing/Option Bonuses

The Niners built in a three-bonus structure to Aiyuk’s new deal, including a $23M signing bonus ($11M to be paid out up front, the remaining $12M to be spread out along with 2024 salary payment), a $22.85M option bonus due in 2025, & a $24.9M option bonus due in 2026.

This multiple bonus format allows for salary cap to be spread out across a maximum 5-years, tempering overall cap hits early on in the contract.

Average Salary

At $30M per year, Aiyuk ties Tyreek Hill as the 5th highest average paid WR in the game (Jefferson, Lamb, Brown, St. Brown, Aiyuk/Hill). However, unlike some of the other top WR deals, Aiyuk’s contract isn’t back-loaded with fluffy salary in order to inflate the overall contract APY.

When factoring in his previously exercised $14.124M 5th-year option, the total value average on this contract drops down to $26.8M. The practical guarantee on this contract comes in at 3 years, $76M, or $25.3M per year.

Guarantee Structure

Aiyuk secures $45M fully guaranteed at signing, including his $23M signing bonus, $1.125M base salary for 2024, and $20.875M of 2025 compensation. On April 1, 2025, another $31M from the contract will become fully guaranteed (all 2025 salary plus a $24.9M option bonus in 2026). That $76M represents the full guarantee & practical/minimum value of the contract out of the gate.

When compared to other WR’s who extended out of a contract that had 1 year remaining on it, this $76M practical guarantee ranks:

1. Justin Jefferson, $110M
2. CeeDee Lamb, $100M
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown, $77M
4. Brandon Aiyuk, $76M

Salary Cap Structure

Aiyuls’ 3-bonus structured deal offers very favorable salary cap hits over the next 3 seasons, before things spike over the $42M mark in 2027/2028. If the Niners are interested in keeping Aiyuk around after the 2026 season, a salary conversion or outright extension will likely be on the table before his age-29 year.

Brandon Aiyuk’s Cap Figures
2024: $5.725M
2025: $11.191M
2026: $16.223M
2027: $42.282M
2028: $44.158M
2029: $14.545M (potential void dead cap)

The extension lowers Aiyiuk’s 2024 cap hit by $8.399M, while his $11.2M hit in 2025 is less than half of what a potential franchise tag would have represented next February. This is a contract structure that shouldn’t hamper the Niners from operating as needed during the next 2 offseason.

Cash Flow

Aiyuk secures $24.125M cash for the upcoming season (a $23M signing bonus + $1.125M base salary). This represents a $10M raise from his previous 5th-year-option salary.

Aiyuk will see $49M over the next 2 years, & $76M over the next 3 years, the logical/practical minimum on this contract.

Annual Cash & Rankings

Concluding Thoughts

The will they won’t they back and forth of this negotiation was exhausting, but the end result seems to be best for all parties.

One of the points to spotlight on this deal is a lack of any guarantee or early available cash in the 2027 & 2028 portions of this deal. San Francisco treated this as a true 3 year contract (including the already present $14.1M salary), with a very favorable cash flow for Aiyuk to buy in to.

Amon-Ra St. Brown secured what seems like a better contract than Aiyuk ($30.0025M per year, $77M guaranteed), but the cash flow structure of his deal tells a VERY different story.

The Cowboys checked off one of their big three contract checkboxes this week, locking in star WR CeeDee Lamb to a 4 year, $136M extension. The deal keeps Lamb under contract through the 2028 season and comes with a total value of $153.9M over the next 5 years.

Contract Terms

Lamb’s $136M new money extension represents the 3rd largest value among Wide Receivers (Justin Jefferson, Davante Adams $140M) and the 2nd largest contract that the Cowboys have ever handed out (Dak Prescott, $160M).

Signing Bonus

The big ticket item on this contract, Lamb received a $38M signing bonus with his new deal, the largest for a Wide Receiver in NFL history.

Largest WR Signing Bonuses

1. CeeDee Lamb (DAL, 2024): $38M
2. Justin Jefferson (MIN, 2024): $36.9M
3. D.K. Metcalf (SEA, 2022): $30M
4. Terry Mclaurin (WSH, 2022): $28M
5. DeAndre Hopkins (ARI, 2020): $27.5M

Average Salary

At $34M per year, Lamb becomes the 2nd highest average paid Wide Receiver in NFL history falling just below Justin Jefferson’s $35M, but tying Nick Bosa (DE, SF, 2023) among top non-QB averages.

When factoring in his previously exercised $17.991M 5th-year option, the total value average on this contract drops down to $30.7M. The practical guarantee on this contract comes in at 4 years, $122M, or $30.5M per year. Strong numbers across the board.

Guarantee Structure

Lamb secures $67M fully guaranteed at signing, including his $38M signing bonus, $1.15M base salary in 2024, & $26.85M base salary in 2025. If he’s on the roster next March 16th, all $26M of his 2026 compensation becomes fully guaranteed. If he’s on the roster the 5th league day of 2027, $7M of his 2027 salary will fully guarantee.

All combined, this represents a $100M practical guarantee on the contract, 2nd only to Justin Jefferson’s $110M in Minnesota, and well above 3rd place A.J. Brown at $84M.

Salary Cap Structure

Lamb’s new deal offers a cap friendly figure for 2024, but will likely need attention as early as next March. Base salary conversions are a big part of the Dallas Cowboys’ contract construction, as they prefer to start with large base salaries and maneuver as needed (rather than build in option bonuses that do that job on their own).

CeeDee Lamb’s Cap Figures
2024: $8.75M
2025: $35.45M
2026: $33.6M
2027: $36.6M
2028: $16.4M
2029: $23.2M (potential void dead cap)

The extension lowers Lamb’s 2024 cap hit by $9.24M. The 2028 season contains an option bonus that can be exercised into 4 void years, or kept as full base salary. But if 29-year-old Lamb is still an elite weapon, he’ll be well into a 3rd contract by then anyway.

Cash Flow

Lamb secures $39.15M cash for the upcoming season (a $38M signing bonus + $1.15M base salary). This represents a $21.159M raise from his previous 5th-year-option salary.

CeeDee will see $67M over the next 2 years, $93M over the next 3 years, & $122M over the next 4 seasons - the logical outcome for this contract.

Annual Cash & Rankings

Concluding Thoughts

There was a world, mathematically speaking, where CeeDee Lamb’s extension could have surpassed Justin Jefferson, but seeing them sit atop the WR market seems a good enough result (though Ja’Marr Chase may soon have something to say about that).

As per usual with CAA agent Tory Dandy’s extensions, Lamb’s contract remains short & sweet, offering him a chance to step into a 3rd contract around his 28th birthday, when the league salary cap should be north of $300M.

The structure offers little to squint your eyes at - a standard for Cowboys contracts over the last 30 or so seasons. Dallas will likely convert Lamb’s 2025 & 2026 base salaries into signing bonuses over the next two offseasons, pushing dead cap into the 2027–2030 seasons, adding more leverage for the player come extension time in 3 or so seasons. Sound familiar?

With Week 1 of the 2024 regular season nearly upon us, it’s a good time to take one last offseason look at the practical contract outlook for every starting QB based on guarantee structure.

Kyler Murray (ARI)

4 years, $150M

Murray’s impressive contract contains early vesting guarantees through 2027. With that said - if Murray can right the ship with a few new weapons, his payouts of $39M, $32M, $42M, & $36M over the next 4 years should hold value in their respective cap climates.

Kirk Cousins (ATL)

2 years, $100M

The guarantee figure consists of Cousins’ 2024 salary, 2025 salary, & $10M of his 2026 compensation, which becomes fully guaranteed next March.

Lamar Jackson (BAL)

3 years, $127M

After an $80M payout in 2023, Lamar’s 2024 cash drops to $31.75M (16th among QBs). Still, he’s well compensated through 2026, with a chance to re-up again before he turns 30.

Josh Allen (BUF)

2 years, $69.5M

The Bills have Allen under contract through the 2028 season, but the early-vesting guarantees fall off after 2025. We detailed a few thoughts on how this scenario may play out in the not so far away future.

Bryce Young (CAR)

3 years, $12.6M

The Panthers have Young fully guaranteed through 2026, with a 5th-year option in place for 2027. He becomes extension-eligible for the first time after 2025.

Caleb Williams (CHI)

4 years, $39M

The Bears have Williams fully guaranteed through 2027, with a 5th-year option in place for 2028. He becomes extension-eligible for the first time after 2026.

Joe Burrow (CIN)

4 years, $173M

Burrow will reel in over $65M cash in 2024 & has already banked over $111M on his new deal. The contract carries early vesting salary/bonuses through 2027, with the final 2 years (2028-2029) built in a pay-as-you-go structure.

Deshaun Watson (CLE)

3 years, $138M

2024 represents Year 3 of Watson’s fully guaranteed 5 year contract, and for now - the outlook remains grim. Cleveland appears poised to carry his full $63.7M cap figure this season to mitigate future cap costs.

Dak Prescott (DAL)

N/A

Prescott’s $29M salary for 2024 will become fully guaranteed next week, but for now - he’s operating on a non-guaranteed expiring contract. The clock is ticking toward March 12th.

Bo Nix (DEN)

4 years, $18M

The Broncos have Nix fully guaranteed through 2027, with a 5th-year option in place for 2028. He becomes extension-eligible for the first time after 2026.

Jared Goff (DET)

4 years, $193M

The Lions took care of Goff to the tune of $80.6M cash in 2024, your standard $54M raise. He’s practically guaranteed through his age-33 season now, with a chance to re-up one last time if the wheels are still churning.

Jordan Love (GB)

3 years, $163M

Love’s zero to 100 career as a starter culminated with a $160M practical guarantee from the Packers this summer. He’ll earn $79M for the upcoming season, $143M through 2026, with a $20M early guarantee hanging out in 2027 for Green Bay to deal with as needed.

C.J. Stroud (HOU)

3 years, $12M

Stroud’s rookie contract is fully guaranteed through 2026, with a 5th-year option available in 2027. Houston is promised at least two more seasons of financial value on this deal, before he becomes extension-eligible after the 2025 campaign.

Anthony Richardson (IND)

3 years, $11.5M

Richardson’s rookie contract is fully guaranteed through 2026, with a 5th-year option available in 2027. He won’t become extension-eligible until after the 2025 season.

Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

5 years, $202M

Jacksonville wasted no time locking in their QB1 during his first eligible offseason. The signing bonus plus 4 option bonus structure keeps him well compensated while tempering the salary cap hits through 2028.

Patrick Mahomes (KC)

4 years, $205.4M

In totality, Mahomes’ contract contains early vesting guarantees all the way through the finish line (8 years, $361.45M). However, last summer’s restructure set things up to operate through the 2027 season, with a pretty clear cut do-over forthcoming, assuming Mahomes is still Mahomes.

Justin Herbert (LAC)

5 years, $228.6M

Herbert’s deal contains significant early guarantees through the 2028 season, making it one of the stronger contracts currently on the books. With an overhaul of the coaching staff and weapon-room now in place, it’s a big year for Herbert to show he can stay above the fray as an elite QB1.

Matthew Stafford (LAR)

1 year, $40M

The Rams sweetened Stafford’s 2024 pot a bit with a $5M cash advance ($36M total in 2024), and an early guarantee on his $4M 2025 roster bonus. It did little to secure his roster spot in 2025 from a financial standpoint, but he can certainly do that on the field this upcoming season.

Gardner Minshew (LV)

1 year, $15.6M

The Raiders signed Minshew away from the Colts with a $15M guarantee, including $3.1M of his 2025 salary. The Week 1 starter has a chance to win this job long-term, which would almost certainly come with a brand new, much more expensive, contract next spring.

Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)

3 years, $152M

Tua’s new deal secures him an extra $20M for 2024 ($43.125M total), and nearly $150M through the 2026 season. Miami can buy him out thereafter at just a $3M cash cost.

Sam Darnold (MIN)

1 year, $10M

McCarthy’s injury becomes yet another chance for Darnold to spotlight himself as a starting NFL QB. He’s had (much) worse weapon sets to work with.

Drake Maye (NE)

4 years, $36M

We’re just going to assume Maye over Brissett here. The Patriots have Maye fully guaranteed through 2027, with a 5th-year option in place for 2028. He becomes extension-eligible for the first time after 2026.

Derek Carr (NO)

1 year, $40M

The $40M guarantee consists of Carr’s $30M 2024 salary, and a $10M roster bonus in 2025. If the wheels fall off this season, that $10M bonus likely becomes a buyout payment, though it’ll factor into a dead cap hit north of $50M for New Orleans.

Daniel Jones (NYG)

1 year, $36M

Jones’ contract was always going to be a 2 year, $82M and then we’ll see, situation. If he can right the ship in 2024, a $30.5M cash salary in 2025 could be considered value for the Giants, but for now this is a big if.

Aaron Rodgers (NYJ)

1 year, $38M

Rodgers is operating year-to-year in NY, and there’s another $37.5M available for him in 2025 if he and the Jets want things to continue.

Jalen Hurts (PHI)

4 years, $184M

Year 2 of Hurts’ extension comes with a $40M paycheck, and the early vesting guarantees on the deal run through 2027.

Justin Fields (PIT)

1 year, $3.2M

Pittsburgh declined a $25.6M option for 2025, giving them a 1 year look at the former #11 overall pick. Even if he’s not named a QB1 out of the gate, it seems highly likely that the offense will contain certain packages built just for his skill set.

Russell Wilson (PIT)

N/A

Wilson’s veteran minimum salary ($1.21M) won’t fully guarantee until Week 1 but it’s locked in for practical purposes. Denver will be on the hook for $39M minus whatever Wilson accrues elsewhere in 2024.

Geno Smith (SEA)

1 year, $22.5M

Smith’s contract was a year-to-year structure out of the gate, so it’s on Seattle to ensure his compensation every February. They’ve done so for 2024 at $22.5M, but it stands to reason that if he remains the option going forward, an extension will be needed come next year ($25M remaining).

Brock Purdy (SF)

N/A

Purdy’s rookie contract has 2 years, $2M remaining through 2025. However, you may have heard, the former #262 overall pick becomes extension-eligible after 2024. He may potentially earn the single biggest raise in NFL history from his current $1.1M salary in 2025.

Baker Mayfield (TB)

1 year, $40M

Mayfield’s upfront security consists of $30M cash in 2024 plus a $10M guarantee on his 2025 compensation. The latter could very well be treated as a buy out if the Buccaneers decide to go in a different direction. But if not, a 2 year, $60M deal could hold value for Tampa Bay.

Will Levis (TEN)

3 years, $4M

Levis’ rookie deal contains full guarantees through 2024, 2025 & 62% of his 2026 salary, the final year of his contract. He’ll be eligible for an extension after the 2025 season.

Jayden Daniels (WSH)

4 years, $37M

The Commanders have Daniels fully guaranteed through 2027, with a 5th-year option in place for 2028. He becomes extension-eligible for the first time after 2026.

With about 5 weeks of regular season baseball remaining, the upcoming free agency picture is becoming more and more in focus. Before the hustle and bustle of the postseason, and a few last minute extensions come to fruition, Spotrac dives into players headed for unrestricted free agency, or team/player option decision in the coming weeks and months, including financial valuations for each.

RELATED: 2025 MLB Free Agents

TOP 5 VALUATIONS

Every year Spotrac runs the list of available (or potentially available) free agents through their valuation algorithm, a tool that uses previous 2-year datasets, a comparable player grading system, adjustments for age, & a few other bells and whistles to output the mathematical baseline for where a player stands financially speaking at any given time.

Here are the Top 5 valuations for the upcoming 2025 MLB Free Agent Season:

• Juan Soto (NYY, RF): 14 years, $530M ($37.8M APY)
• Pete Alonso (NYM, 1B): 7 years, $206M ($29.5M APY)
• Corbin Burnes (BAL, SP): 6 years, $182M ($30.3M APY)
• Gerrit Cole (NYY, SP): 5 years, $179M ($35.8M APY)
• Willy Adames (MIL, SS): 7 years, $175M ($25M APY)

View the complete Market Value List

STARTING PITCHERS

There are three names out of the gate who should garner significant interest this winter - though Shane Bieber & Max Fried both come with their own version of injury red flags. Burnes has a chance to be MLB’s next $200M pitcher, something only 8 players (including Ohtani) have garnered.
Free Agent SP | SP Market Values

Unrestricted Free Agents

Option/Decision Notables

RELIEF PITCHERS

Tanner Scott likely enters the winter as the most sought after reliever, though Carlos Estevez will have something to say about it with a big run down the stretch. Devin Williams should already regret adding a 2025 club option to his contract, while super-vets Chapman & Jensen have done enough to get paid yet again.
Free Agent RP | RP Market Values

Unrestricted Free Agents

Option/Decision Notables

CATCHERS

A weak class got even more fragile when the Colorado Rockies outright released Elias Diaz, who remains unsigned at the time of this piece. Barring a few trades (or a blockbuster extension for Adley Rutschman), this winter will be about depth at the catcher position.
Free Agent C | C Market Values

Unrestricted Free Agents

Option/Decision Notables

1ST BASEMEN

Can Pete Alonso lift up a first base market that has really struggled to hold financial weight in the modern era? A position once filled with blockbuster contracts now boasts many players transplanted from another spot on the field for long stretches. Alonso isn’t exactly bringing his most productive stat line with him to the open market, but the interest will be immense.
Free Agent 1B | 1B Market Values

Unrestricted Free Agents

With the 2024 regular season just a few weeks out, teams are taking one last crack at locking in notable expiring contracts before the threat of free agency creeps in.

While a few extensions are sure to get done, we’ll take an extra early look at which players from each position group could be headed to the open market when the 2025 league year begins next March 12th.

RELATED: 2025 NFL Free Agents

QUARTERBACKS

Quite a few moving targets here, none bigger than Prescott and his potentially historic looming extension in Dallas, but the (year long?) QB1 battle in Pittsburgh will certainly have ramifications on this free agent class next March. J.J. McCarthy’s knee surgery should pave the way for Sam Darnold to showcase himself for a potential 2025 starting role elsewhere.

Dak Prescott (DAL, 31)

Justin Fields  (PIT, 25)

Russell Wilson (PIT, 36)

Mac Jones (JAX, 26)

Jameis Winston (CLE, 30)

Sam Darnold (MIN, 27)

Zach Wilson (DEN, 25)

Trey Lance (DAL, 24)

RUNNING BACKS

This list currently offers much less to be desired than the 2023 class presented, but there’s no question that it will be bolstered by a few likely cap casualties next March. Dobbins, Harris, & Williams all have legitimate chances to reset their free agent values this winter with productive, healthy campaigns.

James Conner (ARI, 29)

Nick Chubb (CLE, 29)

Najee Harris (PIT, 26)

A.J. Dillon (GB, 26)

Javonte Williams (DEN, 24)

JK Dobbins (LAC, 26)

Aaron Jones (MIN, 30)

WIDE RECEIVERS

Higgins & Cooper seem highly likely to find themselves on the open market next March, while long-term questions surrounding Lamb & Aiyuk continue to dominate the news streams. Newcomers Allen (Chicago) & Johnson (Carolina) could play themselves into multi-year extensions if the fit is right.

CeeDee Lamb (DAL, 25)

Brandon Aiyuk (SF, 26)

Stefon Diggs (HOU, 31)

Tee Higgins (CIN, 25)

Keenan Allen (CHI, 32)

Amari Cooper (CLE, 30)

Brandin Cooks (DAL, 31)

Diontae Johnson (CAR, 28)

DeAndre Hopkins (TEN, 32)

Mike Williams (NYJ, 30)

Marquise Brown (KC, 27)

Chris Godwin (TB, 28)

TIGHT ENDS

Freiermuth & Johnson are looking for bounce-back walk years in Pittsburgh & New Orleans respectively, while Noah Gray’s stock could rise internally if Travis Kelce decides to hang up the cleats after 2024.

Pat Freiermuth (PIT, 26)

Tyler Conklin (NYJ, 29)

Noah Gray (KC, 25)

Mo Alie-Cox (IND, 31)

Juwan Johnson (NO, 28)

Brevin Jordan (HOU, 24)

Harrison Bryant (LV, 26)

Austin Hooper (NE, 30)

Mike Gesicki (CIN, 29)

Zach Ertz (WAS, 34)

OFFENSIVE TACKLES

The Jags are likely banking on Walker Little to spell Robinson in 2025 & Bolles could be on the move out of Denver if the wheels continue to fall off there. Stanley needs a healthy 2024 to recoup some of his All-Pro value, but Mekari could very well be the benefactor if he becomes Baltimore’s focal point going forward.

Cam Robinson (JAX, 29)

Garett Bolles (DEN, 32)

Ronnie Stanley (BAL, 30)

Tyron Smith (NYJ, 34)

Patrick Mekari (BAL, 27)

Jedrick Wills (CLE, 25)

Morgan Moses (NYJ, 33)

Chukwuma Okorafor (NE, 27)

Trenton Brown (CIN, 31)

Spencer Brown (BUF, 26)

GUARDS

Massive contracts for Joe Thuney & Robert Hunt in recent free agencies have to have players like Trey Smith & Teven Jenkins smiling but all of these players (maybe sans Martin, who could be eyeing retirement) should be headed for strong pay days in the coming months.

Zack Martin (DAL, 34)

Kevin Zeitler (DET, 34)

Trey Smith (KC, 25)

Teven Jenkins (CHI, 26)

Will Hernandez (ARI, 29)

Will Fries (IND, 26)

James Daniels (PIT, 27)

CENTERS

Dalman & Humphrey were classified as Top 5 centers in 2023 according to PFF and should be eyeing a market reset for the position. Kelly is looking to stay in Indy for the right price, while Corbett’s move over from guard is one to watch this season.

Drew Dalman (ATL, 26)

Creed Humphrey (KC, 25)

Ryan Kelly (IND, 31)

Coleman Shelton (CHI, 29)

Hjalte Froholdt (ARI, 28)

Austin Corbett (CAR, 29)

DEFENSIVE LINEMEN

A rash of extensions leaves this crop with a little more to be desired, but McNeill had a breakout campaign in 2023 and might price out the now loaded Lions, while Odighizuwa might be left out of Dallas’ expensive future plans as well.

Alim McNeill (DET, 24)

Armon Watts (NE, 28)

Osa Odighizuwa (DAL, 26)

Cameron Heyward (PIT, 35)

B.J. Hill (CIN, 29)

Harrison Phillips (MIN, 28)

Jarran Reed (SEA, 32)

EDGE DEFENDERS

Reddick & Judon are deep into contract disputes with their respective teams, Mack took a haircut to remain in LA, and both Lawrence & Omenihu appear headed for the open market as their teams have plenty of other mouths to feed.

Khalil Mack (LAC, 33)

DeMarcus Lawrence (DAL, 32)

Chase Young (NO, 25)

Matt Judon (ATL, 32)

Haason Reddick (NYJ, 30)

Charles Omenihu (KC, 27)

LINEBACKERS

It’s been a tough go for off-ball linebackers on the open market & many of the names on the 2025 list were also on the 2024 free agency list as well. Greenlaw’s Super Bowl injury annexed what was looking like the next big LB contract, but there’s still time for him to regain some of that value back. Jones was the breakout star in LA last season, and could make himself a lot of money with a repeat campaign in 2024.

Dre Greenlaw (SF, 27)

Tyrel Dodson (SEA, 26)

Bobby Wagner (WAS, 34)

Ernest Jones (LAR, 25)

Robert Spillane (LV, 29)

Eric Kendricks (DAL, 32)

Lavonte David (TB, 34)

Elandon Roberts (PIT, 30)

CORNERBACKS

This might be the deepest list positionally speaking, headlined by three key cogs in the 49ers secondary, and a former first rounder in Terrell who along with Sameul Jr., are looking to maximize value heading toward free agency.

Charvarius Ward (SF, 29)

Isaac Yiadom (SF, 28)

Deommodore Lenoir (SF, 25)

A.J. Terrell (ATL, 26)

Asante Samuel Jr. (LAC, 25)

Rasul Douglas (BUF, 30)

Michael Carter (NYJ, 25)

Paulson Adebo (NO, 25)

D.J. Reed (NYJ, 28)

Mike Hilton (CIN, 30)

Jonathan Jones (NE, 31)

SAFETIES

A largely devalued position was financially reset this offseason by Antoine Winfield Jr. in Tampa Bay. Jevon Holland has a chance to position himself for that belt with another big year in Miami, while Justin Reid becomes yet another big member of the Chiefs in need of a new deal in the coming months.

Jevon Holland (MIA, 24)

Budda Baker (ARI, 28)

Justin Reid (KC, 27)

Tyrann Mathieu (NO, 32)

Camryn Bynum (MIN, 26)

Talanoa Hufanga (SF, 25)

Trevon Moehrig (LV, 25)

Julian Blackmon (IND, 26)

RELATED: 2025 NFL Free Agents

Who did we forget? Drop a note on X or Threads @spotrac to keep this list as fresh as possible through the 2024 season.

As new quarterback contracts continue to hit the books at historic costs, the separation between deals that were signed just a few years ago becomes greater and greater. There may be no better example of this than Josh Allen, who’s contract with the Buffalo Bills now looks like a rookie wage scale deal in comparison to a few of the more recently signed.

Allen is entering Year 4 of an 8 year, $284.5M contract that was signed in August of 2021, set to earn $30M cash for the upcoming season. In total, the deal has 5 years, $189.5M remaining on it through 2028.

When looking at the QB contract landscape over just the next three seasons, Allen’s cash flow currently ranks 15th. And with a new contract for Dak Prescott looming (now or next March), it’s safe to drop Allen down to 16th for practical purposes.

QB Cash Available 2024-2026

• 1. Jared Goff, $153.6M
• 2. Patrick Mahomes, $152.5M
• 3. Tua Tagovailoa, $149M
• 4. Jordan Love, $143M
• 5. Justin Herbert, $140M
• 6. Deshaun Watson, $138M
• 7. Joe Burrow, $136M
• 8. Kirk Cousins, $135M
• 9. Jalen Hurts, $133M
• 10. Lamar Jackson, $127M
• 11. Derek Carr, $120M
• T12. Trevor Lawrence, $114M
• T12. Kyler Murray, $114M
• T12. Daniel Jones, $114M
• 15. Josh Allen, $108M

As deals for Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, & Tua Tagovailoa are spelled out across the internets, the urge to compare the shiny new numbers to the ghosts of nfl contracts past from Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen becomes irresistible. But the Chiefs agreed to (actually) restructure Mahomes’ cash flow last offseason to sweeten his current pot, while keeping him under term through 2031 (for now).

As shown above, only Jared Goff (who scored a ridiculous $80M payout in 2024) is set to earn more than Mahomes from a cash perspective over the course of the next three seasons.

Of course, the Chiefs felt a bit of an obligation to address their QB1’s cash flow after back to back Super Bowl victories in 2022 & 2023. Josh Allen’s current resume includes 4 straight AFC East titles (2020-2023), but he’s been unable to get his Bills teams over the AFC Championship hump and into a Super Bowl as of yet.

So as talk about the widening gap between Allen’s current contract (which he agreed to) and its place almost exactly in the middle of the starting QB contract landscape increases - will the Buffalo Bills front office feel pressured into reacting? Will Allen and his camp put their foot down at some point over the next 12 months despite a considerable amount of term left on his current deal?

Let’s play out a few scenarios.

A Cash Flow Restructure

Allen doesn’t have a Mahomes resume to boast, but he’s garnered enough clout to bring the “sweeten the pot” convo to the table. Let’s keep something in mind here however.

Here’s the current cash breakdown for Josh Allen’s remaining contract:

2024: $30M
2025: $39.5M ($25M roster bonus)
2026: $38.5M ($15M roster bonus)
2027: $40M ($25M roster bonus)
2028: $41.55M ($25M roster bonus)

I’ve highlighted the included roster bonuses because that seems to be the most logical path to bringing money forward on the deal (without having to process a brand new deal from scratch). Per the list of 3-year payouts above, Allen sits about $45M below the very top of the pay class, and around $20M from cracking the Top 10 (he’s currently 15th per this metric).

If the Bills agree to pull forward Allen’s $25M roster bonus from 2028 into 2025 & 2026, will it be enough to keep him on the deal until the 2027 offseason?

Potential Updated Cash Flow:
2024: $30M
2025: $51.5M
2026: $51.5M
3-Year Total: $133M (ties Jalen Hurts for 9th)

Is Josh Allen the 9th best quarterback in football? No. But that’s not how the financial rankings ever play out. Timing is everything, and unfortunately for Allen, he agreed to a contract that was (at least) 3 years too long.

A Complete Do-Over

Before we get here, it should be noted that the Bills (or any NFL front office) will want absolutely nothing to do with a rip-up-and-start-over contract for a player that has 4 years remaining on his current deal. And nor should they quite frankly.

However, for purposes of this exercise, we’ll assume that Allen has another Allen type season in 2024, and Buffalo feels compelled to explore every option to keep their franchise QB1 at peak happiness (especially with a big, new, expensive stadium in the process of being built).

Here’s a quick look at every NFL veteran contract that has been ripped up with 4+ years left on it in order to sign the player to a bigger, better contract:

None. The answer is none.

Current Market Value

As the QB money ladder continues to climb, so do the valuations for players nearing their next big contract. For Allen, our math tells us he projects toward a 5 year, $299.8M contract, or just a sliver under $60M per year.

However, for this exercise, we’re going to build in the idea that Allen & his camp will take a slight “average salary” discount as concession for Buffalo going the extra-extra mile to rip up their first swing and a miss of a contract and start fresh here.

Keep in mind, there’s an awful lot of bonus proration being transferred from old contract to new here, so the numbers get messy pretty quickly…

Potential Brand New, From Scratch Contract

We’re offering up a 5 year, $287.5M contract for Josh Allen that begins in 2025 and runs through the 2029 season. A void year in 2030 was added to allow a 2026 option bonus to prorate the full 5 seasons.

Bonuses
The deal includes a $45M signing bonus in 2025, a $45M option bonus in 2026, and early March roster bonuses of $25M in each of 2027-2029. Annual $1M workout bonuses are carried over from his previous deal, offering plenty of opportunities for Allen to get cash in hand throughout the calendar year.

Cash Flow
From a cash flow standpoint, the big number to note here is $155.5M. That’s the 3-year payout on this contract, and it surpasses Lamar Jackson’s current high mark of $155.25M (though Dak Prescott may soon have something to say about this). On the previous deal, Allen was set to earn $39.5M/$38.5M/$40M from 2025-2027. That’s been updated to $51M/$56M/$48.5M in our projection.

Guarantees
This breakdown includes $130M fully guaranteed at signing by way of a $45M signing bonus (2025), $45M option bonus (2026), $25M roster bonus (2027), and $15M of base salary in 2025-2026. In March of 2026, the $22.5M base salary for 2027 & $25M roster bonus for 2028 will become fully guaranteed. In March of 2027, the $23.75M of base salary for 2028 will become fully guaranteed, placing a $201.25M practical guarantee on this contract. This represents a 70% guarantee for Allen through 2028.

Cap Hits
The cap hits begin to look terrifying pretty quickly on this breakdown, but there are a few things to keep in mind here.

First, Allen’s current cap hit for 2025 is $60.7M. Per our projection, Buffalo would be clearing $24.5M of space, with another $9.5M freed up in 2026 ($56.4M down to $46.9M). A $75.9M cap hit for 2027 looks astronomical today, but with a league salary cap expected to be north of $310M that season, the Bills would only need to process a simple conversion on that $25M roster bonus to make things “doable” through Year 3 of this deal.

A similar conversation can be had about 2028, though it’s very easy to see that the dead cap and void years will begin to pile up quickly - something GM Brandon Beane has done a nice job of avoiding throughout his tenure in Buffalo.

Overall Thoughts
Obviously this is just one way to slice this loaf of bread. The deal could be constructed with a much more front-loaded outlook, make cap hits in 2027-2028 easier to work with, and making for less need to kick the can down the road. But any way you look at it, starting over fresh with Josh Allen next spring/summer comes with an awful lot of financial challenges.

A Do-Nothing Approach

At least for 2025, this seems to be the most likely scenario. Not because Josh Allen doesn’t deserve to be earning Top 10 QB money (cash, not AAV). Rather, the current deal just simply holds too much paid out bonus proration on it to tinker with next year.

2025 will be the final year of proration from the original $16.5M 2021 signing bonus, and the 2nd to last year of proration from the $42.4M 2022 option bonus. The contract has also gone through two significant cap conversions in 2023 & 2024 that have laid out bonus proration through the 2028 season.

Waiting until after 2025 to get serious about a new contract for Allen eliminates over $21M of bonus that would need to transfer over and be dealt with immediately. In 2026, Allen’s contract will have 3 years, $120M remaining on it which is still way too early for many franchises to discuss extending out of, but might be the right time for Buffalo to put their QB1 into a more competitive, representative contract for the current times.

Potential 2026 Renegotiation

For our 2026 projection, we've upped the overall value of the contract to 5 years, $300M for purposes of general inflation (and additional QB contracts that may then be on the books). This should still represent a near but not at the top of the market price point for Allen & the Bills. The signing and option bonuses have been increased to $50M each, but for the most part, the year-to-year & guarantee structure of the deal remains the same from our 2025 projection.

Prediction

Allen plays out 2024 at his $30M cash salary, further accentuates his place as a Top 2 quarterback in the league, and puts the Bills' front office in a position where they feel somewhat obligated to make a move.

The better business move for Buffalo is clearly a "sweeten the cash flow" approach, so Allen sees a significant pay raise ($10M-$12M per year)& an early guarantee on all of his 2026 compensation across both 2025 & 2026, with a penciled in plan to formally extend their QB1 during the 2027 offseason (assuming all is right and well).

The Extension Terms

Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins came to terms on a 4 year, $212.4M extension yesterday that keeps the QB under contract through the 2028 season. It easily surpasses Tyreek Hill’s $120M contract as the largest total value deal in Dolphins’ history, while the $212.4M figure ranks 11th among active NFL contracts.

The $53.1M contract average is the 2nd largest figure in NFL history, but Tua now ranks 4th in AAV behind Burrow, Lawrence, and Love - all who clock in at $55M. Against the current $255.4M league salary cap, Tua’s AAV represents 20.79%, which ranks 12th in the league (behind Lawrence, ahead of Goff).

The Guarantee Structure

Tagovailoa’s new deal contains $93.171M fully guaranteed at signing, by way of a $42M signing bonus, his 2024 salary, 2025 salary, and a $25M 2025 offseason roster bonus. The $93.171M currently ranks 12th among all contracts, while a sub 40% total value guarantee (39.5%) is quite a bit less than the recent near/top of the market QB contracts to hit the books.

It’s clear this was a major sticking point for the Dolphins amidst negotiations.

Next March, his $54M 2026 salary becomes fully guaranteed. This figure is guaranteed for injury at signing.

In March of 2026, $3M of Tua’s 2027 salary becomes fully guaranteed. $20M of this salary is guaranteed for injury at signing. The remaining $17M becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2027.

This calculates to a practical guarantee of $167.1M, (8th most) though it should be noted that the final $17M of 2027 salary should be considered a loose guarantee at this stage (is that the most oxymoronic statement ever?).

The Cash Flow

Tua will earn $43.125M in 2024, up nearly $20M from his previous $23.171M 5th-year-option.
The 2-year payout comes in at $94.1M, good enough for 5th among active contracts, while the 3-year cash flow hands Tua $149.1M, 3rd most and ahead of Joe Burrow.

Tua Tagovailoa’s Cash Flow
2024: $43.125M
2025: $51M
2026: $55M
2027: $37M
2028: $49.4M

Of note, the Dolphins compromised on a very strong early cash flow in lieu of making the 4th year of this contract more stable for Tua. When looking at the cash per year breakdown, it’s safe to assume that if all is going well after 2026, Miami will be willing to begin the re-negotiation process, when Tua will still be 28-years-old.

The Salary Cap Hits

An average signing bonus ($42M) and minimum salary for 2024 kept his cap hit for the upcoming season extremely team-friendly ($9.525M). It’s a savings of $13.6M from his 5th-year-option salary before the extension.

From there however, the onus will be put on the front office to manage Tua’s salary cap figures going forward. There’s a juicy $25M roster bonus (fully guaranteed) to be paid out next March that seems like a lock to be converted to a signing bonus for cap purposes. But the 2026 financials will need a wait-and-see approach. If the wheels are falling off on the relationship, Miami may be inclined to keep all or most of his $54M base salary intact, rather than add more dead cap to a soon to be traded or released player.

Tua Tagovailoa’s Cap Hits
2024: $9.5M
2025: $59.4M
2026: $63.4M
2027: $45.4M
2028: $57.8M

Attainable Incentives

The new deal contains incentives each of 2025-2028 that are tied to a combination of playing time and playoff success.

• 50% regular season snaps + Wild Card Win: $250,000
• 50% regular season snaps + Divisional Round Win: $500,000
• 50% regular season snaps + Conf. Championship Win: $500,000
• 50% regular season snaps + Super Bowl Win Win: $1M

A Potential Out Discussion

Miami was able to draw a pretty thick line in the sand after 2026 here. Even after they convert the $25M roster bonus for next season into signing bonus (and assuming no other conversion), the Dolphins will only be strapped with $34.8M of dead cap to move on before the 2027 campaign. ($3M of that comes in the form of fully guaranteed 2027 salary)

2027 should be the line of demarcation for both sides here. If it’s not working out, the Dolphins can and will bail. If it’s still full steam ahead, Tua should be aggressively seeking a contract extension after 2026, especially with “only” $37M allocated to the 2027 season.

This will immediately become one of the more polarizing, closely-watched contracts in 2024, as Tua’s injury history and lack of playoff production kept many followers wondering if the extension should have ever happened in the first place.

So let’s play it out this way: The Dolphins and Tua don’t agree on an extension. He ends his holdout prior to Week 1, earns his full $23.1M 5th-year option salary, plays out a $43M franchise tag in 2025, and plays out a $51M 2nd franchise tag in 2026. That’s 3 years, $118M.

Under these new terms, Tua is likely to earn $149M+ over the next 3 seasons, plus a $3M buyout guarantee in 2027 to get us to $152M+. That’s a difference of $34M. Is a potential franchise QB for 3 seasons worth an extra $34M in order to keep him happy, not holding out, and in the best frame of mind to produce? Most teams would say yes.