Keith SmithMarch 16, 2024

The NBA has gotten better about handing out value contracts. It’s become increasingly harder and harder to limit this list to just 10 deals. Some of that is the rapid growth of the salary cap, but a lot is teams are being smarter who gets big money.

A few notes before we get to the list:

  • You won’t see any max contracts on here, nor max extensions. Even if you think it’s fair to pay a player $100 million per season, that’s not allowed. (Well, at least not yet. Wait about five more years or so.) That means that no matter how good it looks that teams got some players to ink max deals, they won’t show up here.
  • No rookie scale contracts will appear here either. Like a max deal, it’s nearly impossible to do better than teams already do on these deals. No Second Round Pick Exception deals either.
  • Also, we’re not including anyone signed to a Minimum Exception deal. Those are largely a circumstantial thing. Plus, they run only two seasons at most, so the value is limited.
  • This is a best value list, so role and production factor in greatly. The same is true of not only the size of the contract (both per year and in total), but the length of the contract too. No one-year steals will show up here.
  • This list factors in right now and looking forward. In all cases, total money will include this season, plus what’s remaining on the deal.

Got all that? On to the list!

Honorable Mentions

Oklahoma City Thunder

A whole team? Yup, a whole team! Now, to be fair, the Thunder’s salary cap sheet features a whole bunch of key players on rookie scale contracts. And, yes, they’ll start getting expensive here in the next few years, as those players sign extensions. But for now, Oklahoma City is one of the best teams in the NBA and they have a remarkably clean cap sheet. That’s scary for the rest of the league.

Wendell Carter Jr. – Orlando Magic

Carter has been terrific for Orlando, but he has missed considerable time with injuries. That’s the only thing holding him back from making the top-10.

Ayo Dosunmu – Chicago Bulls

 Dosunmu provides starter-level production for roughly half to the Non-Taxpayer MLE. Sure, he might move back to the bench if the Bulls other guards get healthy. But, even then, Dosunmu would still be on a great contract, and are you really betting on Chicago’s guards getting and staying healthy?

On to the 10 Best Value Contracts!

10 Best Value Contracts

1. Jalen Brunson – New York Knicks

Three years, $76.3 million (player option in 2025-26)

Brunson is the Knicks leader and has become the team’s heartbeat in under two full seasons. He’s stayed pretty healthy throughout his career, so that gives Brunson a level of reliability for New York. He’s also incredibly productive, and his game has translated to winning. And, a key for a team that has added a lot of salary and will continue to do so, Brunson’s deal declines from this season to next by nearly $1.4 million. Also, Brunson has been so good, that we’re willing to overlook that player option which likely makes next season a contract year.

2. Jaren Jackson Jr. – Memphis Grizzlies

Three years, 75.8 million

Jackson is one of the best defenders in the NBA. This season, he’s shown he can anchor the frontcourt defense, as he’s had to play at the five more than ever. Jackson has also had to take on a bigger offensive role this season, with so many other Grizzlies injured. He’s lost some efficiency, but Jackson has shown he can handle more creation and playmaking. Like Brunson, his deal also declines year over year. That’s huge for Memphis, who has locked into a lot of long-term money for players on extensions.

3. Kawhi Leonard – LA Clippers

Four years, $195.3 million

This one is cheating a little bit. Leonard is on a max contract this year, and he will be next season too. But the last two years of Leonard’s deal are below the max he could have signed for. That’s good value for the Clippers. This season, Leonard has largely stayed healthy and he’s played well enough that he’s going to appear on a lot of MVP ballots. For less than the max, even a couple of years from now, that’s great value.

4. Domantas Sabonis – Sacramento Kings

Five years, $216.6 million

Sabonis’ deal is actually going to come in a bit less than above, as not being named an All-Star this year cost him some bonus money. That only makes his contract a better value. Sure, the final two seasons, when Sabonis will be in his early-30s, could turn a little sour. But we’re going to bet that this double-double machine will keep being an underrated big man through the life of his contract.

5. Zion Williamson – New Orleans Pelicans

Five years, $197.2 million

Alright, this one is full-on cheating. Williamson is on a max deal, but there’s a reason we’re including him here. Due to clauses that the Pelicans smartly included in Williamson’s deal, his contract isn’t fully guaranteed. If he has a reoccurrence of injuries and/or weight issues, New Orleans can get out of the contract with relatively little owed. We don’t expect that to happen, as Williamson looks good physically and is playing as well as he ever has. But having that protection is huge for the Pelicans or another team, if New Orleans were to ever trade Williamson.

6. Coby White – Chicago Bulls

Three years, $36 million

When this deal was signed last summer, it looked like a fair value. Nearly a year later, this contract is a great value for the Bulls. White should be garnering a lot of Most Improved Player love. He started playing better at the end of last season, and that’s carried over. White’s improvement into a legitimate starting guard is a big reason the Bulls don’t need to panic about Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine’s uncertain futures.

7. Herb Jones – New Orleans Pelicans

Four years, $53.8 million

Herb Jones is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. Actually, he may be THE best perimeter defender in the NBA. That alone would make a deal that comes in under the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount a great value. But Jones has improved as an offensive player each season too. This year, he’s shot over 43% from deep. If he shoots that well, while maintaining DPOY levels of defense, Jones will have broken the 3&D mold and rewritten whatever ceiling was previously put on his potential.

8. Austin Reaves – Los Angeles Lakers

Four years, $53.8 million (player option in 2026-27)

Reaves is a touch behind Jones on this list, because Jones has filled his role a little bit better and Reaves has a player option on the final season of his deal. But Reaves is still a tremendous value for the Lakers. A little shine has come off of Reaves since last season, but it shouldn’t have. He’s still a tremendously efficient shooter and scorer, but Reaves has also improved as a playmaker too. And he does all of that for less than the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

9. Mikal Bridges – Brooklyn Nets

Three years, $69.9 million

We’re knocking Bridges down behind Jones and Reaves only because he makes more than them, and his deal runs one year shorter. That means Bridges is in line to get paid before either Jones or Reaves, and he’ll get a bigger contract too. This season has been messy for both Bridges and the Nets, but he’s still a terrific player. For far less than the max, several teams have done way worse than Bridges. Even as his efficiency and defense has slipped just a bit, Bridges remains a great value. If the Nets improve the talent around him, Bridges will get back to being the two-way star we all loved a year ago.

10. Jarrett Allen – Cleveland Cavaliers

Three years, $60 million

Allen probably should have gotten more All-Star consideration. He’s one of the best defensive centers in the NBA, as he owns the paint and the glass. Allen is also a better offensive player than he usually gets credit for. He’s become a good passer and he’s one of the best play finishers in the league too. For $20 million per season, it’s hard to find many better values at the center position, or in the league period.

 

Keith SmithMarch 09, 2024

NBA transaction season is more or less complete. The trade deadline is more than a month behind us. The Playoff Eligibility Waiver Deadline (that’s a mouthful!) has also passed. There are a few veterans likely to catch on with teams, as players can be signed all the way through the last day of the regular season, which includes signing by playoff teams. (As long as a player was waived by March 1, he’s eligible to be on a playoff roster.)

Of course, we’ll have lots of 10-day contracts to come. And it’s possible a two-way player or two might still be converted/signed to a standard deal, even if the deadline to sign a replacement two-way player has also passed.

But there’s another form of signing that can happen all the way through June 30.

There are 31 players around the NBA that are still eligible to sign veteran extensions. In order to be eligible to extend in this league year, through June 30, a player has to be on an ending contract (either straight expiring or with an option that can be declined for next season).

That removes stars like Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, De’Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo. They’ll have to wait until the summer to talk extensions, with Tatum, Fox and Adebayo potentially looking at Designated Players deals. Tatum has already qualified and Fox and Adebayo, if they were to make All-NBA. Mitchell is ineligible for the so-called super max extension, as he was traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers. (Players have to be traded while still on their rookie scale contract to be eligible to sign a Designated Player extension or contract.)

There are also several other potential extension candidates who will have to wait until the summer to reach an agreement. This list includes players like Brandon Ingram, Lauri Markkanen Derrick White. Because they all have contracts (without options) that extend into 2024-25, they’ll have to wait until the summer to start extension talks.

However, of the remaining 31 extension-eligible players, there are several interesting situations to monitor. Let’s dive in!

Atlanta Hawks

No extension-eligible players

Boston Celtics

Jrue Holiday (extend-and-trade limited until April 1, if he declines his 2024-25 player option)

Holiday has already hinted that Boston feels like home for him and his family. The Celtics didn’t pay a steep price to acquire Holiday to let him walk. Yes, Boston has an expensive roster already and those bills will only grow when Jayson Tatum signs his super max extension and when Derrick White is extended.

But the Celtics are going to take care of Holiday. Look for Holiday to sign a long-term deal (he can add up to four new years on April 1 if he declines his option), but at a lower number than the $39.4 million he’s set to carry for next season. Think something in the range of $120 million over four years in new money and years. Boston might even frontload the deal, to lessen the cap/tax hit in the later years.

Xavier Tillman Sr. (extend-and-trade limited)

Tillman is unlikely to extend with the Celtics. As he was acquired at the trade deadline, Tillman can only add two new years at 5% raises. That’s not enough for him to forgo a chance at unrestricted free agency.

Brooklyn Nets

No extension-eligible players

Charlotte Hornets

Davis Bertans (extend-and-trade limited, if he declines his 2024-25 player option)

Bertans has played, and played well, for Charlotte. He’s shown he’s still got some game left in him. But the Hornets aren’t likely to be interested in extending Bertans.

J.T. Thor (“Dinwiddie Extension” candidate, if team declines his 2024-25 option)

Last season, it looked like Thor was developing into a potential rotation guy. However, he hasn’t improved enough for the Hornets to consider an extension as this point.

Chicago Bulls

Lonzo Ball (if he declines his 2024-25 player option)

There’s no chance Ball declines his $21.4 million option for next season. And there’s even less of a chance the Bulls extend him if he does.

DeMar DeRozan

 Both DeRozan and the Bulls have said they have interest in an extension. There aren’t a lot of signs of DeRozan slowing down either. He’s not exactly the same player he was, but he’s adapted his game enough to cover for anything he’s lost. This one might end up getting shelved until after the postseason, but Chicago seems like they want to keep DeRozan in the fold. Bet on something getting inked before DeRozan hits free agency in July.

Cleveland Cavaliers

No extension-eligible players

Dallas Mavericks

No extension-eligible players

Denver Nuggets

No extension-eligible players

Detroit Pistons

Evan Fournier (if team declines his 2024-25 option)

No extension is happening here. The real question: Will Detroit pick up Fournier’s option for next season? $19 million is a good chunk of cap space to punt, but if the Pistons feel like they won’t need it in free agency, they could pick up Fournier’s option. He’s been playing rotation minutes off the bench, and he’d be $19 million in expiring and tradable salary through the 2025 trade deadline.

Golden State Warriors

Klay Thompson

Outside of Jrue Holiday and DeMar DeRozan, Thompson is arguably the most fascinating player on this list. He’s played better since the Warriors moved him to the bench. Thompson seems to have embraced that role too.

Now, how much is he willing to sacrifice salary-wise to stay with the only franchise he’s ever know? Golden State can’t bring Thompson back for anything near the $43.2 million he’s making this year. Not with their stated goals of reducing their overall salary/tax commitments moving forward. Look for both sides to eventually find middle ground on a new deal sooner or later.

Houston Rockets

No extension-eligible players

Indiana Pacers

Doug McDermott (extend-and-trade limited)

McDermott could add two years and about $29.6 million via an extension. That’s too rich for a backup shooting forward. But could the Pacers, who prefer to keep their own acquired players when they can, find agreement with McDermott on something in the two-year, $20 million range? That’s certainly possible.

Pascal Siakam (extend-and-trade limited)

The Pacers can “only” offer Siakam an extension of two years and $81.6 million. That’s a lot of per-year money for Siakam, but he’s not going to go for that. Not when at least a four-year, $181.9 million contract could be on the table in free agency. Maybe Siakam won’t max out, but he’ll get more in total money (from Indiana or another team) by waiting until he’s a free agent in July.

LA Clippers

Brandon Boston Jr. (“Dinwiddie Extension” candidate)

Boston hasn’t shown enough in limited minutes for the Clippers to warrant an extension.

Paul George (if he declines his 2024-25 player option)

Many thought an extension for George was fait accompli after Kawhi Leonard extended. It hasn’t happened just yet, but it still seems like a good bet to get done. One potential challenge? Leonard took less than he could have, both in years and money. Is George willing to leave anything on the table?

Los Angeles Lakers

No extension-eligible players

Memphis Grizzlies

Luke Kennard (if the team declines his 2024-25 option)

Memphis has been aggressive in extending their own players. But Kennard is in a different place. He’s not necessarily a core rotation player for the Grizzlies moving forward. And this roster has gotten very expensive. A bigger thing to watch is if Memphis even picks up Kennard’s $14.8 million option for next season. If someone has to go to cut costs, he’s the easiest choice.

Miami Heat

No extension-eligible players

Milwaukee Bucks

No extension-eligible players

Minnesota Timberwolves

Jordan McLaughlin

An extension for McLaughlin seems unlikely. Despite showing flashes at various points during his Wolves tenure, McLaughlin has never fully grabbed the backup point guard role.

Monte Morris (extend-and-trade limited)

Even though Morris is limited to extending for two years and $21.1 million, that could be enough. Minnesota has a mounting payroll that is going to see them in uncharted territory with the luxury tax. That could put a pause on extending Morris to backup the recently-extended Mike Conley. But there is something to be said for locking in players on fair-value deals. Two-years, $21.1 million would be under the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount for Morris. Keep an eye on this one.

New Orleans Pelicans

Naji Marshall (“Dinwiddie Extension” candidate)

We saved explaining the idea of what we call the “Dinwiddie Extension” for Marshall, because he’s actual candidate to sign it. In Marshall’s case, because he’s coming off a minimum deal, he’s eligible to sign a different form of veteran extension.

Instead of being confined to a percentage of his previous salary, Marshall could extend for up to four years, with the first-year salary and subsequent 8% raises being based off the league’s average salary. In Marshall’s case, he could extend for a deal that would pay him up to $75 million over four years. That’s too rich for a bench wing, especially given New Orleans long-term salary commitments already. But something like $25 million over three years (a bit more than Miles McBride got from the New York Knicks) could make sense for both Marshall and the Pelicans.

Jonas Valanciunas

Before the season even started, Valanciunas said he wanted to sign an extension with New Orleans. He’ll turn 32 years old soon, but Valanciunas has turned in another productive, efficient season. The Pelicans don’t have anyone in the fold to replace Valanciunas. As it stands, he’ll be the best available center in free agency.

New Orleans is carrying $150 million in salary already for next season, but they should try to get something done with Valanciunas. They’ve got enough clearance under the tax line to sign him to a short-term extension. Something like $30-32 million over two years feels like a fair deal for both sides.

New York Knicks

OG Anunoby (extend-and-trade limited until June 30, if he declines his 2024-25 player option) 

Anunoby is a fascinating case, because of a number of reasons. First is timing. Anunoby is limited to signing a two-year, $40.1 million extension right now. (Note: any extension for Anunoby means he’s declining his $19.9 million player option for 2024-25). That’s not enough. But because the Knicks traded for him on December 30, they can just squeeze in a bigger extension on June 30, right before the start of free agency.

This one might end up one those announcements by a reporter where we aren’t sure if the player and team are extending or if we’re talking about a new contract. This is similar to the extensions signed by Harrison Barnes and Nikola Vucevic last year, right before free agency opened up hours later. Either way, Anunoby is staying with the Knicks, whether it’s an extension or a new contract.

Alec Burks (extend-and-trade limited) 

Unlike Anunoby, Burks was acquired too late to squeeze in a big extension before the start of free agency. He’s limited to two years and $22.6 million in an extension. That’s not bad value for Burks, but it’s unlikely the Knicks are going to make that kind of commitment without the second season either being partial or non-guaranteed, or a team option.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Gordon Hayward (extend-and-trade limited)

Hayward and the Thunder aren’t likely to sign an extension. He’d have to sign something so team-friendly, that it probably doesn’t make sense for him to do that. And Hayward hasn’t shown enough yet for Oklahoma City to commit salary and a roster spot to him. It’s more likely that Hayward will head to free agency, and the Thunder will have around $30 million in cap space to play with this summer.

Orlando Magic

Markelle Fultz

It’s been a journey for Fultz and the Magic. Orlando gave him a three-year, $50 million extension in 2021 based mostly on potential. In the three years since, Fultz has played in 105 games and hasn’t improved enough to get another extension. The Magic also have younger guards that they are committed to now. The real question is if Fultz will be back in Orlando at all next season.

Philadelphia 76ers

Tobias Harris

This is the part where Sixers fans get the cold sweats and start to rock back and forth nervously. Harris has been a fine player on his current deal. But he’s been paid a lot more than a just fine player. Given Philadelphia’s public pronouncements about big plans with their 2024 cap space, there’s no chance Harris is extended.

Buddy Hield (extend-and-trade limited)

Hield could sign a two-year, $42.7 million extension right now. Hield and the Sixers could even put in the same bonus structures, that could push him up to $47.6 million in total money over the same two seasons. But, like Harris, the allure of 2024 cap space makes it unlikely Hield will extend at all.

K.J. Martin (extend-and-trade limited until May 1, then “Dinwiddie Extension” candidate)

Martin hasn’t had the breakout season that we thought might eventually come. And, say it with me, the Sixers cap space plans mean no extension is getting done here.

DeAnthony Melton

Melton is in an interesting spot. He’s got a $15.2 million cap hold for next summer. To this point, we’ve continued to factor his cap hold into the 76ers 2024 cap space projections. However, recent back issues have kept Melton on the shelf for several games. If Philly wants him, they could extend him for less than his cap hold, and actually increase their cap space. But it’s now looking more like the 76ers will renounce Melton to maximize their cap space. That obviously means that there’s no extension coming.

Phoenix Suns

Grayson Allen (“Dinwiddie Extension” candidate)

Allen has been great for the Suns. He’s leading the NBA at 47.5% shooting from behind the arc. He’s held up defensively and he’s been a nice additional ball-mover and playmaker for Phoenix. There are two factors in extending Allen at play. First, he’s a good player who the Suns would like to keep in the fold. Second, extending him now would make his deal a really nice piece of salary-matching in any future trades.

Because he makes less than the average salary, Allen is eligible for what we call the “Dinwiddie Extension”. That’s up to four years and $75 million. That’s probably a bit rich, but is $48-$60 million and a $12-15 million AAV out of bounds for Allen and the Suns? That feels good for both sides.

Royce O’Neale (extend-and-trade limited)

O’Neale has given Phoenix exactly what they hoped for as a 3&D wing. Sure, it’s a limited sample with the Suns, but this is who O’Neale is. He’s eligible to sign for two years and $20.5 million. That feels just about right for both O’Neale and Phoenix.

Portland Trail Blazers

No extension-eligible players

Sacramento Kings

No extension-eligible players

San Antonio Spurs

Cedi Osman (“Dinwiddie Extension” candidate)

Osman could get the “Dinwiddie Extension” of up to $75 million over four years. That’s obviously not going to happen. In fact, it’s unlikely Osman and the Spurs will extend his deal at all. He’s been pretty good in a limited role in San Antonio, but look for the Spurs to continue to put a priority on developing their younger wings over keeping Osman in the fold.

Toronto Raptors

Gary Trent Jr.

The Raptors are in transition. They traded away both Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby, which seemed to set the team on a path to having cap space this summer and rebuilding to an extent. But Toronto extended Kelly Olynyk recently, which kind of countered that. If the Raptors can find a fair value for Trent ($60 million over four years?), they might keep him in the fold long-term. If that’s not workable, Toronto has acquired enough other wings that letting Trent walk could be in the cards.

Utah Jazz

Talen Horton-Tucker (“Dinwiddie Extension” candidate)

The Jazz aren’t going to extend Horton-Tucker. They are likely to renounce him this summer to maximize their cap space. And they can’t do it right now, but effective July 1, look for Utah to use a large chunk of that cap space to renegotiate-and-extend Lauri Markkanen.

Washington Wizards

Richaun Holmes (if he declines his 2024-25 player option)

Holmes isn’t going to give up a guaranteed $12.9 million for next season, unless he can recoup that much and more on a long-term extension. The Wizards aren’t in a place where that makes sense. No extension will get done here.

Keith SmithFebruary 27, 2024

The NBA is an ecosystem. There are good teams, there are bad teams and there are teams just sort of hanging around the middle. It’s a world of predators, prey and those content to live life uneaten.

Sometimes the prey grows large enough that they become the predators. Sometimes the predators weaken enough that the prey picks them apart until there’s only scraps left as a reminder of their former dominance.

For most of their existence, despite their predatory namesakes, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been prey vs predators.

It took until their eighth year of existence to make the playoffs. Led by the snarling ferocity of Kevin Garnett, the Timberwolves became a playoff mainstay. Unfortunately, all but one of those years were one-and-done appearances. In 2004, that changed and Minnesota made it all the way to the Western Conference Finals. Those Wolves pushed the Los Angeles Lakers hard in a six-game series.

Then, just like that, the predator became the prey again.

Minnesota slipped a bit in 2004-05, then they fell off the cliff. That fall saw a baker’s dozen worth of years without even really sniffing the playoffs. A few years into the drought, Garnett was traded to the Boston Celtics and the Wolves were left at the bottom of the NBA.

Sure, there was the blip in 2018, when the team snapped the playoff drought. Then everything got weird with Jimmy Butler and Minnesota was back to the dregs again.

That 2004 team is revered in Timberwolves history because of what it meant to Minnesota basketball fans. They finally broke through with Garnett and the best team in history. The Wolves were right there.

And then they weren’t. And they’ve never been close again.

2004 is also an interesting landmark in Timberwolves history for another reason. That season was the last time Minnesota paid a significant luxury tax bill.

According to NBA cap and roster expert Mark Deeks, the Wolves have paid the luxury tax four times. Twice, in 2007 and 2020, it was such a minor amount that it was probably a mistake for the team to not dodge the tax line.

In 2003, as the team was building towards the peak of the Garnett era, the Wolves paid $6 million tax bill. The next year, that ballooned to $17.6 million.

And that was the last time Minnesota went more than $1 million into the tax. In total, the Wolves have paid just over $25 million in luxury taxes in their 35-year history. That ranks around the lower-third of the NBA.

Barring some major moves, that’s about to change in a major way.

The Timberwolves are on pace to equal the 2004 team’s franchise record of 58 wins. They’ve been one of the best teams in the Western Conference all season long. They currently posses the NBA’s best defense and the offense is just good enough. Minnesota has a good mix of ascending superstars, establish All-Stars and win-now veterans.

The Wolves have what it takes to be a consistent contender for the first time in franchise history…assuming they’re willing to pay for it.

Everyone knows the Golden State Warriors, LA Clippers, Phoenix Suns and Boston Celtics are wildly expensive. Most know the Milwaukee Bucks and Denver Nuggets have invested heavily into title contenders. It’s no surprise to see NBA luxury teams like the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat climbing up the ranks of potential tax teams.

But the Timberwolves? The team that has been somewhere between terrible and irrelevant for most of their 35 years?

Yup. This is where the Wolves live now. It’s a nice place, but you gotta pay to live here.

At the start of the 2024-25 season, the Minnesota Timberwolves have the following fully guaranteed salaries on their books:

$183.7 million for nine players. That’s five players short of the minimum that NBA teams must carry. Let’s fill out the Wolves roster with five minimum salary players for now. That brings the total to a projected $189.5 million.

The NBA’s luxury tax line for 2024-25 is currently projected to be $171.3 million. Even without filling out the roster, Minnesota has blown way past that line.

The first apron for 2024-25 is currently projected to be $178.6 million. The second apron projects to be $189.5 million.

Bam. There it is.

If we remove key vets like Kyle Anderson and Monte Morris (both are unrestricted free agents this summer) and replace them with minimum salary players, the Wolves are already right at the second apron.

What if Minnesota makes a deep playoff run and brings Anderson and Morris back? (It’s worth noting that the Wolves don’t have younger in-house options ready to take the roles Anderson and Morris play.) Let’s plug them in $10 million each, which is a tick above where each is now salary-wise. But that’s less than the Non-Taxpayer MLE and it’s a fair value for both players. That, plus the corresponding (and optimistic!) three minimum salary players, brings the Timberwolves salary to a projected $207.2 million.

Let that sink in for a moment…$207-plus million.

That’s more expensive than this season’s Warriors or Clippers.

The Minnesota Timberwolves as the most expensive roster team in the NBA? Seems unfathomable, right?

Again: this is where the Wolves live now.

Now…let’s extrapolate things further, shall we?

Anthony Edwards is having the best season of his career. He was a second-time All-Star this season and his team is atop the Western Conference. There’s a great chance that’s going to come with All-NBA honors, and deservedly so.

If Edwards makes All-NBA, his 25% of the cap max extension will tick up to a 30% of the cap max extension. That changes his first-year salary from a projected $35,250,000 to $42,300,000. If we leave in the estimates of $10 million for each of Anderson and Morris and bump Edwards up, the Wolves salary lands at $214.2 million.

Whew boy… And it doesn’t end there! That’s just the team salary. We haven’t even gotten into the tax penalties yet.

Let’s really start spending Marc Lore’s and Alex Rodriguez’s money!

There are three basic scenarios here:

  • Scenario 1: Team as is, no max bump for Anthony Edwards, filling out with five minimum deals
  • Scenario 2: Team as is, no max bump for Anthony Edwards, $10 million each for Kyle Anderson and Monte Morris
  • Scenario 3: Team as is, max bump for Anthony Edwards, $10 million each for Kyle Anderson and Monte Morris

(Yes, there are countless other scenarios we could run, but we’re going to stick with these three for instructional purposes.)

Here’s where everything lays out in each scenario:

  • Scenario 1: Team Salary of $189.5 million, Tax Bill of $38.6 million, Total Cost of $228.1 million
  • Scenario 2: Team Salary of $207.2 million, Tax Bill of $111.5 million, Total Cost of $318.7 million
  • Scenario 3: Team salary of $214.2 million, Tax Bill of $149.4 million, Total Cost of $363.6 million

The saving grace for Minnesota in each scenario? They are a first-time tax team. So, no repeater penalties here…yet.

For reference, this season, the Golden State Warriors are facing a total bill of salaries plus tax penalties of $382.4 million. The LA Clippers are looking at $342.4 million in total. If we go further down, the Phoenix Suns, Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and Denver Nuggets are all around the $200 to $250 million mark in total. Next season’s Timberwolves project to fall somewhere in that grouping.

The one thing those teams have in common beyond massive financial commitments? They are title contenders, outside of the Warriors, who are still paying the piper from nearly a decade of title contention.

Which begs the question: Can you win a title in the NBA without paying the tax?

The NBA’s luxury tax system went into place with the 2001-02 season. That season and in 2004-05, there were no tax penalties levied due to inefficient Basketball Related Income (BRI). That means that as of the last full season, we’ve had 20 years where the luxury tax system (in all its different forms) has been in place.

In those 20 years, 15 NBA champions have paid the tax. The lone exceptions:

  • 2006 Miami Heat
  • 2014 San Antonio Spurs
  • 2015 Golden State Warriors
  • 2017 Golden State Warriors
  • 2020 Los Angeles Lakers

That’s it. Five teams in 20 seasons. But what about contending for a title and making it to the NBA Finals?

Over that same 20-season sample, 27 of the 40 NBA Finals teams have paid the tax. In fact, every NBA Finals matchup during the luxury tax years has featured at least one team that paid the tax that season.

That leaves us with 75% of all NBA champions who have paid the tax (15 out of 20) and 67.5% of all NBA Finals teams who have paid the tax (27 out of 40).

So, back to our question: Can you win the title in the NBA without paying the tax?

You can, but it’s very difficult to do. It’s difficult to even get to the NBA’s biggest stage without paying the tax.

And that brings us back to the Minnesota Timberwolves and the sustainability of this current team.

As we’ve laid out, the Wolves are going to be somewhere between expensive and extraordinarily expensive next season. But Minnesota is also a title contender, or they at least look the part.

Maybe this year’s Timberwolves will break through and join that exclusive club to win a title or make the NBA Finals without paying the tax. But if they do, they won’t have that status for long. The math just doesn’t support Minnesota not being a tax team next season, barring something unexpected.

And therein lies the rub.

The Wolves have a new ownership group. And it’s one that needed an extension and additional partners to push their purchase of the team over the finish line. That new ownership group is also pushing for a new arena for the team. And, as we all know, new arena’s need public support to get built.

This isn’t Steve Ballmer buying the LA Clippers. Ballmer bought the Clippers, immediately committed to spending exorbitant sums of money to field a contender and then ponying up considerable sums to build his own new arena. This is a smaller market team with new owners walking into an expensive roster and a potential new arena battle.

However, to their credit, the Timberwolves seem committed to winning in ways we haven’t seen from the franchise before. Even with a looming extension for Karl-Anthony Towns already in place, Minnesota traded for Rudy Gobert and extended deals for Naz Reid, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels and Mike Conley. That’s putting your money where you mouth is when it comes to winning.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are here now. They’re in rarified air as a franchise. Never has Minnesota been this well setup for long-term success as they are now. The Timberwolves failed to properly capitalize on the Kevin Garnett era, resulting in just that one beloved run in 2004. This current team will need to win, and win at a high level, to stay together. Otherwise, all the questions about being too expensive will start. That’s usually followed by roster changes, which often see a team take a step backwards. And that window before the questions start is a lot smaller than anyone ever thinks it is.

Wolves are an apex predator. They’ll have to pay to stay here, but it’s long past time for the NBA’s Wolves to stop being prey and to take their place as predators.

Keith SmithFebruary 15, 2024

NBA transaction season has just about wrapped up. There will be a handful more waivers, signings and probably even some contract extensions, but the big stuff is done. The focuses for teams become split after the trade deadline and the All-Star Break.

For the players and coaches, they focus on building towards the postseason. For teams that are out of the running for postseason spots, they pivot toward development.

For front offices, part of the focus goes towards the 2024 NBA Draft. There’s a lot of scouting to be done, both on the college and international levels. The other part starts preparing for the offseason. Who will have cap space, who will have only the MLE, who might be a second apron team and who becomes available because of all the above?

That means it’s time to take an updated look at where each of the NBA’s 30 teams project to land as far as spending power for the 2024 offseason. Of course, these projections will change as teams sign extensions, make two-way conversions and potentially sign and waive players. However, it’s good to take an updated look at where teams stand today.

A few notes:

  • We are using the NBA’s official projections for the salary cap and tax lines. Some are projecting greater growth than the 3.5% represented here, but we will always use the official projections from the league.
    • Salary Cap of $141,000,000
    • Luxury Tax of $171,315,000
    • First Apron of $178,655,000
    • Second Apron of $189,485,000
  • Max salary tiers grow with the cap. They are as follows:
    • 0-6 Years of Service: $35,250,000
    • 7-9 Years of Service: $42,300,000
    • 10+ Years of Service: $49,350,000
  • A projection has been made on all 2024-25 player and team options. Similarly, a projection was made on all partial and non-guaranteed contracts. And, finally, a projection made on renouncing free agents has also been made for cap space teams.
  • 2024 NBA Draft picks were based on ESPN’s BPI forecast for expected final record. All conditions on picks owned and owed were then reflected to determine the draft order and the subsequent cap holds.
  • No trades, extensions or signings have been projected. Essentially, rosters are as they stand at the time of publication.
  • With the advent of the new CBA, the landscape has changed around the NBA. There used to be three basic categories of teams each summer: Cap Space teams, Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception teams and Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception teams. Each season there would also be a handful of “swing” teams that could fall in one bucket or another.

In this new world, we have a fourth category: Second Apron teams. These are the NBA’s most expensive teams that the new CBA was largely designed to punish.

Under the new CBA, if you are at or over the second apron, you lose access to the Taxpayer MLE. In addition, the trade rules tighten up for these teams. Salary-matching in trades is limited to 100%, they aren’t allowed to aggregate salaries together in trades, they can’t participate in sign-and-trade deals, and they won’t be able to use TPEs.

Essentially, Second Apron teams are going to limited to making 1-for-1 trades where they take back the same money as they send out (or less), signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum salaries.

With all that said, here is the updated projected spending power for each NBA team in 2024 free agency!

Cap Space Teams (5)

  1. Detroit Pistons: $61.3 million
  2. Orlando Magic: $45.1 million
  3. Utah Jazz: $42.7 million
  4. Philadelphia 76ers: $42.4 million
  5. Toronto Raptors: $41.5 million

This is the smallest group of teams we can confidently project to have cap space in a decade of doing this exercise. As more and more teams prioritize extensions and trades, cap space (and the number of impact free agents) has dried up. Still, as we write every time we talk about cap space, having this kind of room doesn’t just mean signing free agents. Cap space can also be used to facilitate trades, either for yourself or others.

The Pistons jumped up to the top of the list after a series of moves where they shed some long-term money to create even more cap flexibility. As it stands now, the only non-Rookie Scale player Detroit projects to have on their roster is Isaiah Stewart, who is starting a four-year, $60 million Rookie Scale extension. Simone Fontecchio will probably get a qualifying offer, as the third-year NBA player is the closest thing this roster has in terms of age and experience. That makes for yet another year of massive amounts of cap space for Troy Weaver to work with.

Orlando comes in second in projections by virtue of having a roster full of players on rookie scale contracts and team-friendly deals. This includes all of the Magic’s best players. In the recent past, Orlando has eschewed cap space to re-sign or extend their own players. That seems poised to change, as the Magic are finally in position to really push the rebuild forward with an impact addition or two. And they need to do that before they have to start extending players like Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero in coming years. In order to create meaningful space, Orlando will have to move on from one, or both, of Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac. Both players have been extremely injury prone during their Magic tenure. One thing to keep an eye on: Orlando could let both go for cap space (renouncing Fultz and waiving Isaac), then bring them back on new deals at lower numbers, but with additional years added on.

Utah made some moves to clear out a little long-term salary, or at least salary questions, at the deadline. That sees the Jazz set up to have nearly $43 million in cap space. A large chunk of that will probably be reserved to do a renegotiation-and-extension with Lauri Markkanen. But Utah should still have a nice amount left over after to do some more work with.

The Sixers have been bandied about as having double-max cap space and the like for months now. For a while, that seemed extremely unlikely. It’s still not really a thing, but they can get close. There’s a world where the only salary commitments Philadelphia has on the books are Joel Embiid at $51.4 million and Tyrese Maxey’s cap hold at $13 million. That would see the Sixers able to create nearly $65 million in space. That’s still not double-max cap space, but it’s really, really close. We’re going to stay a bit more conservative and project the 76ers to keep a few other guys and land just north $42 million in space.

No team changed their cap space outlook more than Toronto did. They moved on from Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby as their big deals. But the Raptors shed some salary into next year and beyond in other moves too. This projection accounts for declining Bruce Brown’s team option, which would give Masai Ujiri and staff the most flexibility they’ve had in ages. If Brown’s option is picked up, Toronto will probably operate as over the cap team. But they’ve got a lot of wings now. Look for them to take the cap space route.

Cap Space – Non-Taxpayer MLE Swing Teams (3)

This is an interesting mix of two rebuilding teams and a team that is in contention right now. That’s not generally where we typically find a potential cap space team, but the Thunder are anything but typical.

  1. Charlotte Hornets
  2. Oklahoma City Thunder
  3. San Antonio Spurs

Charlotte is in a bit of a weird spot. For another season, the Miles Bridges question hangs over this team. He signed the qualifying offer, so Bridges will be an unrestricted free agent next summer. Signs point toward Bridges and the Hornets wanting to sign a new contract. If that happens, they’ll likely operate as an over-the-cap team. If Charlotte moves on from some players, including Bridges, they can create about $28.6 million in cap space.

The Thunder finally went under the cap last offseason. They used that space to act as a clearing house for some contracts, in exchange for even more draft picks. This summer should go differently. Oklahoma City could create in the range of $30 million in cap space. That means renouncing both Gordon Hayward and Aleksej Pokusevski, which isn’t out of the question. Hayward could be re-signed to a much lower salary than he currently makes, and leave the Thunder with some space to add another player. A lot will likely depend on how this playoff run goes for OKC and Hayward.

Victor Wembanyama and the other young Spurs keep developing so rapidly, that their cap space projection has changed. The San Antonio no longer projects to have the first or second overall pick in the draft. On the flip side, the Spurs do look more likely to pick up the Raptors first-round pick though. So, a projection of around $20.7 million in cap space feels pretty safe. If Toronto keeps, their pick, San Antonio will bump up closer to $26.4 million in cap space. Either way, it’s enough to add to a fun, young roster.

Non-Taxpayer MLE Teams (6)

This is usually the largest group of teams we have, and it may well still end up that way. But for now, we can confidently project only six teams to be in range of using the full Non-Taxpayer MLE.

  1. Brooklyn Nets
  2. Houston Rockets
  3. Indiana Pacers
  4. New York Knicks
  5. Sacramento Kings
  6. Washington Wizards

All four of these teams have two things in common: They look to have only handful of roster spots to fill and they have plenty of clearance under the first apron. That puts all of these teams in range to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE without tripping into any hard cap issues.

In addition, unlike the swing teams, there isn’t a reasonable path to cap space for any of these teams. Indiana would be the closest, but they’d be punting on some valuable players to create cap space. That seems highly unlikely. Houston and Washington could have been swing Cap Space-Non-Taxpayer teams, but both took on money for next season in trades that has them likely to stay over the cap.

Non-Taxpayer MLE – Taxpayer MLE Swing Teams (3)

This group is close to tripping into the luxury tax, or even over the first apron. Most of that is related to pending free agents that these teams could re-sign. And for a handful, they are close enough to the first apron, that the hard cap would become an issue if they used the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

  1. Chicago Bulls
  2. Cleveland Cavaliers
  3. New Orleans Pelicans

The Bulls, Cavaliers and Pelicans are all going to have free agent decisions to make. If they re-sign, or extend, those players to expected-value contracts, they’ll be butting up against the tax or even the first apron. That will take them out of range of using the Non-Taxpayer MLE.

The lone exception here is if Chicago were to lose DeMar DeRozan. If that happened, the Bulls would have more than enough room to use the full Non-Taxpayer MLE. That situation could resolve itself early, however, if DeRozan and the Bulls can reach an agreement on an extension.

Taxpayer MLE Teams (4)

The addition of the second apron has created a smaller-than-usual window for teams to be in position to use the Taxpayer MLE, but without creating issues against the second apron hard cap.

  1. Atlanta Hawks
  2. Dallas Mavericks
  3. Miami Heat
  4. Portland Trail Blazers

The Hawks are in a tricky spot. As it stands, they have a pretty small window to work within. And that’s before re-signing Saddiq Bey. But Atlanta also seems pretty likely to move off some long-term this summer. That could free up some much-needed flexibility. But dancing around the tax and the first apron is still pretty likely too.

The Mavericks project to be around $9 million under the second apron, but they also only have a few roster spots to fill. That leaves enough room to use the Taxpayer MLE to add a player, with enough wiggle room to stay under the hard cap that would be created at the second apron.

It might be a surprise to see the rebuilding Trail Blazers in this spot, but they took on a good amount of salary in the Damian Lillard trade, and the subsequent Jrue Holiday trade. Portland also re-signed Jerami Grant to a big contract too. And, somewhat surprisingly, the Blazers didn’t make any moves at the trade deadline. As it stands, Portland sits just over the luxury tax line. That won’t be a thing for long, as a rebuilding team can’t pay the tax. But it will limit what kind of spending power Portland has this summer. Instead of free agent signings, look for the Trail Blazers to keep retooling their roster through trades.

Second Apron Teams (9)

This is our largest group of teams for 2024 offseason projections. This is a direct result of two things. First, the second apron exists now, and some teams are over or up against it. Second, several teams took the “gap year” (or maybe better put the “get your books in order year”) to load up. That’s got us in a spot where roughly one-third of the league will be unable to add a free agent for more than the minimum this summer.

  1. Boston Celtics
  2. Denver Nuggets
  3. Golden State Warriors
  4. LA Clippers
  5. Los Angeles Lakers
  6. Memphis Grizzlies
  7. Milwaukee Bucks
  8. Minnesota Timberwolves
  9. Phoenix Suns

All nine of these teams are already over or right up against the second apron. Or they will be once they re-sign some key free agents. From there, this group of nine will be limited to making 1-for-1 trades where they take in similar (but not more) money, signing their own draft picks and signing players to minimum contracts.

Something to keep an eye on: If a team in this group underwhelms in the postseason, they could look to move a player or two to start the process of cleaning up their cap sheet. But most of these teams are contenders, or could be contenders with better health or a roster move or two. That’s going to keep most of them in a position to remain pretty expensive.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 10, 2024

The 2024 NBA trade deadline is at 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, February 8. That means teams are facing their last window to make significant upgrades to their roster. But there’s one more transaction window that comes after the trade deadline has come and gone.

The buyout market has become the trade deadline’s less glamorous cousin. The big moves are done at the deadline, but there are always a handful more deals to come through the end of February.

Following the February 8 trade deadline, the next big date to watch is March 1. Players waived after March 1 are not eligible to play in that season’s playoffs. Effectively, that’s the last day for players to get set free to catch on with playoff teams following the trade deadline.

The way this happens is that the player is waived by his current team. Upon clearing waivers, which the vast majority of players do, they become a free agent. In many of these cases, players and their former team will come to an agreement to buy out the remainder of their contract. This means the player gives back some portion of their guaranteed salary in order to become a free agent.

Sometimes these buyouts occur immediately on the heels of the trade deadline and the player clears waivers by the end of the weekend. For others, the buyout negotiations may run through the All-Star break and get completed before the end of the month. But in almost all cases, any significant buyouts will occur by March 1, to allow that player to remain playoff-eligible.

This season, there is a wrinkle to the buyout market. Under the new CBA, teams that are above the first tax apron are not eligible to sign any players whose previous salary was above the Non-Taxpayer MLE equivalent. For this season, that amount is $12,405,000. The following teams are currently above the first apron:

Below are some players to keep an on eye on for the 2024 buyout market. In most cases, these are veterans on an expiring contract. Some may have some salary that goes into next season. It’s rare for a deal running more than two seasons to be bought out, but it does occasionally happen.

In addition, most of these players are either out of their team’s rotation, or they are blocking minutes for a younger player to get into their team’s rotation. For some, their teams are expected to make other changes before the deadline, which will push them even further to the backend of the roster.

It’s also worth noting that every player listed here is also a possibility to be traded. We’re not going to repeat that point with each player listed. In some cases, they could be traded and then bought out. Mostly, this is a list of players who could take a buyout if they are still on a roster somewhere at the end of the day on trade deadline day of Thursday, February 8.

Lastly, just about every player on this list will be recognizable to even casual NBA fans. They’ve all played big roles at some point in their careers. However, for many of these players, we’re at the point in their careers where they are more name than game. No one listed here is overly likely to swing a playoff game, never mind a playoff series. Keep that in mind when dreaming about how your team could fill out their bench on the buyout market.

Davis Bertans (Oklahoma City Thunder, PF, 31 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $17 million in 2023-24, $5.25 million guaranteed in 2024-25

Bertans has seldom played as a part of the Thunder’s rotation this season. He’s essentially a three-point specialist now, but still a fairly good one. OKC has worked buyouts with veterans in the past, especially after exhausting the trade market for them. In Bertans’ case, exhausting the trade market could stretch into next summer as the Thunder could guarantee a larger portion of his contract to use him in an offseason deal.

UPDATE: Traded to the Hornets

Andre Drummond (Chicago Bulls, C, 30 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $3.4 million in 2023-24

Drummond has been having a very productive season for the Bulls. He’s one of the best backup centers in the NBA now. Chicago should be able to find a trade for him, if they desire. If they don’t, Drummond could agitate for buyout, because he could help a contender in a bigger role. But the Bulls are also apparently leaning into a postseason push via the Play-In Tournament. Don’t be surprised if Drummond finishes the year in Chicago as the Bulls backup center.

Evan Fournier (New York Knicks, SG/SF, 31 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $18.6 million in 2023-24, $19 million team option in 2024-25

Fournier isn’t a part of the Knicks rotation. He only sees minutes when the team is down several players on the wing. But his contract is a really nice piece of salary-matching in any potential trade. Don’t bet on a buyout for that reason. If New York doesn’t make a move using Fournier’s contract at the trade deadline, look for them to pick up his team option for next season. That will allow the Knicks to keep Fournier as a salary-matching piece in a deal over the summer and all the way through the 2025 trade deadline, if necessary.

UPDATE: Traded to the Pistons, unlikely to work a buyout

Danilo Gallinari (Detroit Pistons, PF/C, 35 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $6.8 million in 2023-24

Gallinari has flashed in moments since getting traded to Detroit in mid-January. He doesn’t have a real place on the Pistons though, as they’ve got younger players who need minutes. If Detroit can’t swing another trade for Gallinari, he’s a prime buyout candidate. The extra bonus? Gallo’s salary is under the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount. That makes him free to join any team in the league for the stretch run.

UPDATE: Waived by the Pistons

Joe Harris (Detroit Pistons, SF/SG, 32 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $19.9 million in 2023-24

Harris hasn’t played much for the Pistons. He’s still a pretty good shooter though and teams are always looking for shooting. The challenge is that Harris makes too much to join any of the apron teams. But there are playoff teams where he could provide some shooting in a bench role. And Detroit clearly has no need for him, with younger players getting all the minutes in front of Harris.

UPDATE: Waived by the Pistons

Gordon Hayward (Charlotte Hornets, SF/SG, 33 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $31.5 million in 2023-24

Under the old CBA, Hayward would have been a prime buyout candidate. He’s a health-risk to be sure, but Hayward is very productive when he plays. He’s shooting well and still has a good all-around game. He’d be a great fit in the rotation for any title contender. But therein lies the rub. Some of the teams that Hayward could fit best on would be restricted from signing him, because he makes more than then Non-Taxpayer MLE. It’s also important to note that Hayward would lose his Bird Rights if he takes a buyout. Hayward might be able to land a contract from a team that starting in the $15-$18 million range via a sign-and-trade this summer. That means retaining his Bird Rights might be more valuable than catching on with a second-tier contender after a buyout.

UPDATE: Traded to the Thunder, unlikely to work a buyout

Jock Landale (Houston Rockets, C, 28 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $8 million per season through 2026-27 all non-guaranteed

Landale can be a productive player, but he hasn’t been a fit in Houston. Jeff Green has taken on the primary backup center role in the minimal minutes behind Alperen Sengun. That makes Landale available. If the Rockets don’t put Landale into a trade, he could get a jump on finding his next team by taking a buyout. Houston could also guarantee his deal for next season, and continue to look at him as tradable salary too. Call this one 50-50 at best.

Kyle Lowry (Charlotte Hornets, PG, 37 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $29.7 million in 2023-24

Lowry is the classic buyout guy on this list. So much so that the Hornets have all but acknowledged that’s what will happen, assuming they can’t re-trade the veteran point guard before Thursday’s deadline. Lowry makes too much to join any of the apron teams, but none of them have a really glaring need for a point guard anyway. Look for Lowry to get set free and to join one of the second-tier contenders that can use a veteran backup lead guard.

Doug McDermott (San Antonio Spurs, SF/PF, 32 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $13.7 million in 2023-24

This one is kind of tough. McDermott plays regular minutes for the Spurs. He’s not really blocking any younger players. He’s also still really productive as a shooter (44.1% on 3.8 3PA per game). San Antonio is exploring the trade market for McDermott, but hasn’t found a deal just yet. If they can’t, the Spurs may do the veteran a solid by cutting him free. However, McDermott makes just above the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount, which limits his potential post-buyout teams. That could complicate things a bit.

UPDATE: Traded to the Pacers, unlikely to work a buyout

Patty Mills (Atlanta Hawks, PG, 35 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $6.8 million in 2023-24

Mills hasn’t played much for the Hawks. When he has, Mills has done ok. He’s not going to light anyone up, but Mills could be a nice third guard and someone you throw in a game when you need a scoring spark. His current deal is small enough that Mills could join any team in the league if he takes a buyout.

Monte Morris (Detroit Pistons, PG, 27 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $9.8 million in 2023-24

Morris is both too good and younger-than-usual to be on this list, but his circumstances find him here. He recently returned from a quad injury to start playing for the Pistons. It’s taking him a bit to find his rhythm, but Morris is one of the best available backup point guards on the trade market. If Detroit can’t find a deal they like, they could work a buyout to let Morris join a playoff team. He’s got a small enough salary that joining anyone is on the table. Look for the Pistons to try to find a trade first, however. And we’ve seen Detroit keep vets in curious situations before too.

UPDATE: Morris will not work a buyout after being traded to the Minnesota Timberwolves

Mike Muscala (Detroit Pistons, C, 32 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $3.5 million in 2023-24

Muscala has stepped in as the backup to Jalen Duren since Detroit acquired him in mid-January. The Pistons seem to like that he brings a stretch element to the floor, which their other centers don’t. That makes it far from a guarantee that Muscala gets a buyout. But if there are signs that a playoff team has a role for Muscala, he could push for a buyout.

Victor Oladipo (Memphis Grizzlies, SG, 31 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $9.5 million in 2023-24

This is the saddest story on this list. Oladipo has fully fallen into the point where he’s more “Victor Oladipo’s expiring contract” than he is a helpful basketball player. Oladipo is continuing his recovery from left patellar tendon surgery last year. There’s no sense that he’s close to playing. If the Grizzlies don’t re-trade Oladipo in a deal this week, they’ll likely waive him (probably without Oladipo giving back any money in a buyout) to open a roster spot.

UPDATE: Waived by the Grizzlies

Kelly Olynyk (Utah Jazz, PF/C, 32 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $12.2 million in 2023-24

Olynyk is highly unlikely to take a buyout, but his name comes up enough that we’re including him here. The reason that he’s not really a buyout candidate is that the Jazz should be able to find a trade for him assuming they want to move Olynyk at all. He’s been extremely productive as a backup frontcourt player for Utah this season. And the Jazz are in the mix for a postseason spot. If Utah doesn’t trade Olynyk for future assets, they’ll probably just keep him and figure out a potential sign-and-trade or re-signing this summer. One last thing to note: Olynyk’s salary is just enough below the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount that he could sign with anyone if he did work a buyout agreement.

UPDATE: Traded to the Raptors, unlikely to work a buyout

Cedi Osman (San Antonio Spurs, SF/SG, 28 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $6.7 million in 2023-24

Osman has had a pretty productive season for the Spurs as a reserve wing. The challenge? San Antonio has several other players who play the same position as Osman. If a trade doesn’t develop for the veteran wing, look for Osman to look for a buyout. His salary is low enough that he can catch on with any team. And several playoff teams will be looking for wing depth for their postseason push.

Philadelphia 76ers (Several veterans on expiring contracts)

It’s a little hard to peg where the Sixers are at. They could put a bunch of their expiring deals together in a trade to add help now. They could keep those players and let their deals expire to have a bunch of cap space this summer. A handful could be buyout candidates, but Philadelphia needs depth and versatility now that Joel Embiid is out for a while. We’re including the 76ers to acknowledge that something could happen here, but it’s far too nebulous to get into individual details.

Otto Porter Jr. (Toronto Raptors, PF/SF, 30 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $6.3 million in 2023-24

Porter was a surprising signing with Toronto in the summer of 2022, and it hasn’t gone well. Porter has rarely been healthy enough to have an impact for the Raptors. Now, he’s on an expiring deal on a team that is resetting their roster. Considering he’s played only 23 games in a season-plus in Toronto, it’s hard to know exactly where Porter is at. But he did play a key role in helping the Warriors in the 2022 NBA Finals. He’s the kind of guy contenders will take a chance on. He has the added benefit of having a low enough salary that he can sign with anyone, should he take a buyout.

UPDATE: Traded to the Jazz

P.J. Tucker (LA Clippers, PF/C, 38 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $11 million in 2023-24, $11.5 million player option in 2024-25

Tucker hasn’t played much since joining the Clippers in the James Harden trade in early-November. Normally, the second year of money would keep a guy like Tucker off this list. Look for LA to exhaust every possible trade option before Thursday’s deadline. As a second apron team, this is the Clippers last chance to take on additional money in trades, and last chance to aggregate salaries together in a deal. If Tucker isn’t traded before the deadline, it becomes an interesting conversation on what happens next, given the $11.5 million he’s owed for next year. But he’s made it clear he still wants to play, and there are contenders interested. And, just in case you haven’t figured it out by now, Tucker makes just under the Non-Taxpayer MLE amount, so he’s free to sign with any team. Also, there’s a good chance Tucker is a post-trade buyout guy if he’s moved before the deadline to a non-playoff team.

Delon Wright (Washington Wizards, PG, 31 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $8.2 million in 2023-24

Wright missed a lot of time earlier this season due to injuries. But he’s healthy now and he could help a number of teams as a backup guard. He has a very reasonable salary, so the Wizards will explore trade options before even discussing a buyout. But Washington took care of Will Barton in a similar spot last season. They could do the same for Wright this year.

Thaddeus Young (Toronto Raptors, C/PF, 35 years old)

Remaining Salaries: $8 million in 2023-24

The Raptors started the process of resetting their roster when they traded OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. Those trades, and a subsequent minor injury to Jakob Poeltl, have actually opened up rotation minutes for Young. The veteran big man made the most of it with some solid play. If Toronto continues to prioritize long-term players, there’s a chance Young could take a buyout. At that point, he could join any playoff team to add some frontcourt depth.

UPDATE: Traded to the Nets, waived by the Nets

Spencer Dinwiddie (PG, 30 years old)

Dinwiddie was traded by the Brooklyn Nets to the Toronto Raptors and subsequently waived. The veteran lead guard hasn’t shot it well at all this season, but he’s already got suitors lining up to sign him. If a team needs some bench scoring and a guy who can also be a fill-in starter, Dinwiddie would be a nice pickup.

Killian Hayes (PG, 22 years old)

Hayes was cut loose by the Detroit Pistons when they needed to create roster spots in the deadline moves. He’s younger than the usual late-season addition, but Hayes has struggled in his NBA career. If a team has a good player development staff, and can afford to give Hayes minutes to figure things out, he’s a great “second draft” guy. Sometimes point guards take a while, and Hayes is worth taking a shot on.

Furkan Korkmaz (SG/SF, 26 years old)

The Indiana Pacers will reportedly waive Korkmaz after they acquired him in a three-team deadline deal with the Philadelphia 76ers and San Antonio Spurs. Korkmaz’s rep has always been that of a guy who can shoot and provide some scoring punch. He mostly delivered on that when he was a regular rotation guy for the Sixers. The last two years, Korkmaz has barely played. He’s worth taking a flyer on for a team that needs some bench production.

Robin Lopez (C, 35 years old)

We could be at the end of the line for Lopez. He hasn’t held a regular rotation role for the last three seasons. In limited opportunities, Lopez didn’t look very good this season. But if a team really needs a veteran center, Lopez is a great locker room guy to add for some bench depth.

Chimezie Metu (C, 26 years old)

After a few good years with the Sacramento Kings, Metu never quite found his footing with the Phoenix Suns. However, he can score and has a little range. Metu is also a decent rebounder too. He’ll catch on with a team looking to add to their frontcourt depth.

Marcus Morris Sr. (PF, 34 years old)

Morris will reportedly be waived by the San Antonio Spurs after they acquired him in a three-team deadline deal with the Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers. Morris was a productive rotation player for years for several teams. This season, he looked good in his opportunities with the Sixers. Morris can still score and he’s shooting 40% from deep this season. He’d make a nice addition for a team that needs some frontcourt scoring off their bench.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 10, 2024

The LA Clippers made their big trade early in the season when the acquired James Harden. That led to a quiet deadline, but LA made good use of the last time they’ll be able to “buy” a player using cash for a while.

Here are the particulars:

LA Clippers acquire: Draft Rights For Ismael Kamagate

Denver Nuggets acquire: Cash Considerations

Let’s dive in!

LA Clippers

Incoming salary: None

  • None

Outgoing salary: None

  • None

Because they are likely to continue to be a second apron team for the foreseeable future, the LA Clippers days of using cash to “buy” a player were limited. LA made good use of that last chance to take a flyer on a big man prospect.

Ismael Kamagate was someone scouts were somewhat high on at the 2022 NBA Draft. When he ultimately landed with the Denver Nuggets, some even dreamed he could undergo a path similar to that of fellow second-round pick Nikola Jokic. Those dreams ended somewhat quickly.

Kamagate is big and athletic, but he’s stalled out a bit as a prospect. The 6-foot-11 Frenchman moved from France to Italy this season, and he hasn’t played quite as well.

In his last two years in France, Kamagate started in 60 of 88 games for Paris Basketball. The young center averaged 10.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks during that period. He showed off good athleticism and nice touch around the rim. Kamagate also flashed some impressive defensive ability too.

This season, Kamagate has largely come off the bench for two different teams in Italy. He played minimal minutes for Milan before being loaned to Tortona for the rest of the season. Kamagate has seen his playing time go up with Tortona, so there’s some hope he’ll get back on track as an NBA prospect.

For the Clippers, being a second apron team means they’ll largely have to build their roster through re-signing their own players (that work is under way with Kawhi Leonard extending, on-going extension talks for Paul George and every intention of re-signing James Harden this summer), the draft and minimum contracts. Adding a prospect like Kamagate gives LA something in reserve for down-the-line frontcourt depth.

Denver Nuggets

Incoming salary: None

  • None

Outgoing salary: None

  • None

The Nuggets have selected several prospects in the last couple of drafts. Because of that, Denver was comfortable selling Kamagate’s draft rights to the Clippers.

Given Denver’s status as the reigning champs, and being a contender for years to come, they’re more likely to want a veteran backup in place for the minutes behind Nikola Jokic. That, combined with Kamagate’s recent inconsistent play, also likely factored into their willingness to move on from the young center.

Plus, adding a little cash to the ownership group’s pockets helps soften the blow of an impending luxury tax bill. But raising a banner makes that all worth it in Denver.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 10, 2024

The Golden State Warriors are facing nearly a half-billion bill this season when it comes to salaries, plus tax penalties. The Indiana Pacers had plenty of room under the tax line to space. In the end, Indiana lent a helping hand to help Golden State save a bunch of money.

Here are the particulars:

Golden State Warriors acquire: 2024 second-round pick

Indiana Pacers acquire: Cory Joseph, 2025 Hornets second-round pick, Cash Considerations

Let’s dive in!

Golden State Warriors

Incoming salary: None

  • None

Outgoing salary: $2.0 million

  • Cory Joseph (PG, one year, $2.0 million)

This trade was all about saving money for the Warriors. Even though Joseph’s veteran minimum salary was for only for just over $2 million, Golden State saved over $13 million because of how deep they are into the luxury tax, as a tax repeater. Even if you offset what they paid Indiana to cover Joseph’s deal, that’s worth it.

And, for what it’s worth, the Warriors got a 2024 second-round draft pick in this deal, albeit a likely late one. Considering they’ll need to fill out their roster through the draft and minimum signings, assuming they stay a second apron team next year, that’s not nothing.

Indiana Pacers

Incoming salary: $2.0 million

  • Cory Joseph (PG, one year, $2.0 million)

Outgoing salary: None

  • None

Indiana got cash to cover eating Joseph’s contract. And they swapped a not-great 2024 second-round pick for what should be a pretty good 2025 second-round pick. Sometimes it pays to be a helpful partner in a trade.

The Pacers waived Cory Joseph after completing this trade.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 10, 2024

The Boston Celtics wanted to preserve an open roster spot and to save some money. The Portland Trail Blazers needed to fill out their roster. The two got together a small, but mutually beneficial trade.

Here are the particulars:

Boston Celtics acquire: future top-55 protected second-round pick

Philadelphia 76ers acquire: Dalano Banton, Cash Considerations

Let’s dive in!

Boston Celtics

Incoming salary: None

  • None

Outgoing salary: $2.0 million

  • Dalano Banton (PG, two years, $4.2 million, team option in 2024-25, non-guaranteed if option is picked up)

This trade was all about saving money and creating a roster spot for the Celtics. The pick they’re getting from Portland isn’t likely to convey.

Portland Trail Blazers

Incoming salary: $2.0 million

  • Dalano Banton (PG, two years, $4.2 million, team option in 2024-25, non-guaranteed if option is picked up)

Outgoing salary: None

  • None

Portland had to fill a roster spot and did so with Banton. He’ll help a backcourt/wing group that has been hit with a lot of injuries. Banton has great size for his position and has played well in moments. He’s worth the Blazers taking a flyer on, since they were paid to do so.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 09, 2024

The Boston Celtics were determined to add a wing at the trade deadline. They hooked up with the Philadelphia 76ers in a somewhat rare trade between the division rivals. Boston added some depth, while Philadelphia cleared even more 2024 cap space.

Here are the particulars:

Boston Celtics acquire: Jaden Springer

Philadelphia 76ers acquire: 2024 second-round pick

Let’s dive in!

Boston Celtics

Incoming salary: $2.2 million

  • Jaden Springer (SG, two years, $6.2 million, restricted free agent in 2025)

Outgoing salary: None

  • None

Pre-trade deadline, Brad Stevens said the Celtics were looking to add a wing. They did so by picking up Springer. While he’s unlikely to play a big role this season on an already-deep Boston team, Springer is a nice prospect moving forward.

Springer is a terrific athlete and a good defender. He’s shown some ability to create his own shot. The challenge is that shot doesn’t go in very often. If it did, Philadelphia probably wouldn’t have traded Springer.

If Springer can get his shot working, the Celtics will have another guard with some size. That was something they’ve been lacking. As it stands, Springer will inject some athleticism when he’s called upon to play.

One other added benefit for the Celtics is they added a little future tradable salary into next season. Boston didn’t have much tradable salary on the books, as anything significant belongs to key rotation players. This was also Boston’s last real chance to use their $6.2 million traded player exception. They made the most it by adding Springer for this season and next.

Philadelphia 76ers

Incoming salary: None

  • None

Outgoing salary: $2.2 million

  • Jaden Springer (SG, two years, $6.2 million, restricted free agent in 2025)

Philadelphia continues to maximize their cap space for the 2024 offseason. They got off an additional $4 million in salary by moving Springer in this deal. And they got a second-round pick in doing so. If that wasn’t enough, this trade helped the Sixers get out of the luxury tax for this season. That’s really good work.

This coming summer, Philadelphia projects to have somewhere between $42 and $63 million in cap space. If they clear the deck, the 76ers will be building around Joel Embiid and an eventually maxed-out Tyrese Maxey. That’s a lot to do, but Daryl Morey has his team set up to make a major splash this summer.

 

Keith SmithFebruary 09, 2024

One the stranger trades on deadline day came between two Eastern Conference contenders. The Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers swapped backup point guards, in a rare trade between two teams that competing to win the conference.

Here are the particulars:

Milwaukee Bucks acquire: Draft Rights to Dimitrios Agravanis

Sacramento Kings acquire: Robin Lopez, Cash Considerations

Let’s dive in!

Milwaukee Bucks

Incoming salary: None

  • None

Outgoing salary: $2.0 million in 2023-24

  • Robin Lopez (C, one year, $2.0 million)

The Bucks saved a fairly large chunk of change in this deal. Because they are deep into the luxury tax, Milwaukee ended up saving $8.6 million in this deal in terms of salary plus tax penalties.

Lopez wasn’t playing much, and he looks as if he’s coming to the end of the line in his career. The Bucks opened up a roster spot in this trade, which could go to a more helpful player for the rest of this season.

Agravanis is unlikely to ever come over to the NBA. He’s a 29-year-old, 6-foot-10 power forward from Greece. Agravanis is currently playing for AEK Athens. This season, he’s appeared in only seven games. The days of Agravanis being an NBA prospect are probably behind him.

Sacramento Kings

Incoming salary: $2.0 million in 2023-24

  • Robin Lopez (C, one year, $2.0 million)

Outgoing salary: None

  • None

The Kings got some cash to eat Lopez’s contract to help the Bucks save on their tax bill and to open a roster spot.

Sacramento waived Lopez following the trade.

In a more fun note: The Kings used the open roster spot to sign Keon Ellis to a three-year deal from his two-way contract. Ellis has played well in spots for Sacramento and was deserving of a standard deal. The Kings will have him signed long-term on a team-friendly contract. Don’t be surprised if Ellis ends up in the rotation for Sacramento for the rest of the year.

The Kings signed Mason Jones to a two-way contract to backfill the spot Ellis vacated. Jones has been one of the G League’s top snipers this season, as he’s made 48% of his 5.1 three-pointer attempts per game.

 

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