As the March 11th “tampering period” nears, Spotrac has developed complete contract extension projections for 12 notable wide receivers, including two (Mike Evans, Calvin Ridley) who seem certain to get to the open market in 10 days.

Justin Jefferson (Vikings, 25)

Quick Details
4 years, $128,000,000
$32,000,000 AAV
$70M guaranteed at signing
$100M practically guaranteed

Jefferson is entering his 5th-year option season in Minnesota, set to earn a fully guaranteed $19.743M in 2024. He brings a nearly perfect resume to the negotiating table, putting pressure on the Vikings not only to pony up in his regard, but in how they make decisions at the QB position & as a whole this offseason. Spotrac is projecting a 4 year extension that includes a whopping $70M fully guaranteed at signing, which would currently rank 15th in the entire NFL, and 1st among WRs by nearly $20M (Tyreek Hill, $52.5M). The projection includes $100M of practical guarantee through the 2027 season.

CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys, 25)

Quick Details
4 years, $120,000,000
$30,000,000 AAV
$55M guaranteed at signing
$75M practically guaranteed

Lamb enters his 5th-year option season in 2024, set to earn a fully guaranteed $17.9M from Dallas. His stock has risen each of the past 4 seasons, culminating with a 135 reception, 1,750 yard, 12 TD campaign last year. It seems highly likely that Lamb is on his way to the top of the non-Justin-Jefferson market sooner rather than later. Spotrac is projecting a 4 year extension that includes $75M practically guaranteed through the 2026 season. It might not be enough.

Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals, 24)

Quick Details
4 years, $120,000,000
$30,000,000 AAV
$46M guaranteed at signing
$70M practically guaranteed

Injuries to himself & to QB Joe Burrow over the past two seasons have limited Chase’s ability to reach his max ceiling. Cincinnati likely pays a king’s ransom to see that happen within their offense soon. The 24-year-old has 2 years, $26.6M left on his rookie deal through 2025, so there’s not an immediate rush to get something done here, but it’s certainly worth discussing. Spotrac projects a $70M guarantee over the next 3 seasons, including back to back $20M bonuses to keep cap hits at bay while this contending team continues to get more and more expensive across the board.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions, 24)

Quick Details
4 years, $112,000,000
$28,000,000 AAV
$45M guaranteed at signing
$65M practically guaranteed

Much to the surprise of some, St. Brown has now posted back-to-back 100+ catch, 1100 yard seasons in Detroit, fully entrenching himself as the #1 WR option for Jared Goff and co. in 2023. The former 4th round pick enters a contract year in 2024, set to earn a non-guaranteed $3.3M (thanks to a proven performance escalator). Spotrac projects a 4 year, $112M tack on extension, including $45M fully guaranteed at signing, and $65M locked in by next March. The deal contains a team-friendly $7.5M cap hit in 2024 to allow the Lions to extend & acquire core players as they push toward the top of the NFC.

Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins, 25)

Quick Details
3 years, $82,500,000
$27,500,000 AAV
$46M guaranteed at signing
$60M practically guaranteed

With Tyreek Hill now north of 30, extending Jaylen Waddle carries both a short & long-term benefit for the Dolphins.The 25-year-old still has 2 years, $19.8M remaining on his rookie deal, so an extension this offseason isn’t imperative, but still remains likely. Spotrac is projecting a double bonus structure in Year 1 & Year 2 to keep cap hits at bay through 2026, plus $50M fully guaranteed at signing.

Tee Higgins (Bengals, 25)

Quick Details
4 years, $104,000,000
$26,000,000 AAV
$40M guaranteed at signing
$60M practically guaranteed

The Bengals have offered Higgins a $21.8M franchise tag this February, resetting his value to a minimum of that figure from here forward. Cincinnati can now negotiate against themselves into July, hoping to find a way to lock in both Higgins & Ja’Marr Chase in the next two offseasons. Spotrac projects an extension that offers $3.25M more than a double franchise tag through 2025, with $60M fully guaranteed through 2026.

Brandon Aiyuk (49ers, 26)

Quick Details
4 years, $96,000,000
$24,000,000 AAV
$40M guaranteed at signing
$57.6M practically guaranteed

Aiyuk’s status in San Francisco is very much in question, but it’s nothing a few (dozen) million guaranteed can’t fix. The 26-year-old showed his worth in 2023, and enters 2024 on a $14.1M fully guaranteed 5th-year-option. Spotrac is projecting a 4 year, $96M tack on extension, including $40M fully guaranteed at signing, and nearly $58M fully locked in by next March. It’s a 1A version of Deebo Samuel’s deal with the Niners, so if Aiyuk is traded to a team that will increase his role to a true WR1, this projection likely becomes a floor, not a ceiling.

DeVonta Smith (Eagles, 25)

Quick Details
3 years, $72,000,000
$24,000,000 AAV
$32.5M guaranteed at signing
$50.5M practically guaranteed

Smith’s rookie contract holds 2 years, $19M remaining on it, so an extension isn’t required this offseason. Like many players on this list, Smith’s extension would mean that two high profile wide receivers on a respective team are under a veteran contract - something not all franchises will be willing to do right now. Spotrac has projected a very Philly-style-structure here for Smith’s extension, including a double bonus payout over the next two seasons that keeps the cap hits under $8M. This would align nicely with the stability of A.J. Brown’s contract, allowing a transfer of power to happen after the 2025 season as needed.

Mike Evans (Buccaneers, 30)

Quick Details
3 years, $75,000,000
$25,000,000 AAV
$50M guaranteed at signing
$50M practically guaranteed

Evans appears poised to hit the open market on March 13th, which inflates his value. It also means that the Buccaneers didn’t offer a “blow me away” contract in the past few weeks. Does $50M fully guaranteed at signing qualify as a sticker shock for the 30-year-old? Here’s the issue. There may be 3 teams willing to offer Mike Evans the exact contract that Spotrac has projected here - which only further inflates his price point. Wide Receivers like this simply don’t get to the open market, and when they do, the numbers never disappoint.

Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts, 26)

Quick Details
4 years, $100,000,000
$25,000,000 AAV
$40M guaranteed at signing
$65M practically guaranteed

Pittman was a late bloomer in Indy, but with so much change at the coaching & QB levels, it’s tough to place too much blame. Will the Colts get a “small sample size” discount to keep Pittman from hitting the open market? Not likely. Indy is flush with cap space, destined to keep their core intact to build around Anthony Richardson, and don’t have an easy way to replace their WR1 currently. Spotrac projects a 4 year extension that includes $40M fully guaranteed, through 2025.

Amari Cooper (Browns, 30)

Quick Details
2 years, $45,000,000
$22,500,000 AAV
$35M guaranteed at signing
$45M practically guaranteed

Cooper is entering a contract year in Cleveland, set to earn a non-guaranteed $20M in 2024. Spotrac is projecting a 2 year, $45M tack on (3 years, $65M total), including $35M fully guaranteed through 2025. It’s a bit of a soft extension in comparison to many others noted here, but the Browns are likely looking to tread lightly in many areas with so many mouths already fed around the roster. $45M guaranteed is an awful lot more than $0.

Calvin Ridley (Jaguars, 29)

Quick Details
3 years, $66,000,000
$22,000,000 AAV
$32M guaranteed at signing
$42M practically guaranteed

Ridley was given every chance to establish himself as Trevor Lawrence’s #1 option in 2023, but failed to do so with any measure of consistency. That doesn’t mean he’s not a top-flight wideout in the league, and won’t be highly coveted on the open market (where he’s likely to go based on his trade condition). Spotrac’s projection sees him earning $43.2M over the next two seasons (about $4M less than two franchise tags). While the money doesn’t pop off the page, being considered “value” among this group could mean Ridley ends up in a spot that allows him to showcase himself into a much bigger payday. If so, look for a shorter (maybe even 1 year) contract to do exactly that.

It’s been a minute since we’ve run the gamut on each team’s QB situation, so we’ll take a quick dive into the guaranteed salary breakdown for every player currently under contract, by team.

A few notes for reference:

Total Remaining: The total contract remaining
Right Now: Is already fully guaranteed
Soon: A guarantee will trigger in the coming weeks
Future Early: Salary or bonus in the next few seasons will lock in early

ARIZONA

The Cardinals have made it clear (this time around) that Murray is their guy. The contract concurs.

Kyler Murray

Total Remaining: 5 years, $196.6M
Practical Remaining: 4 years, $150M
Right Now: $35.3M of 2024 salary
Soon: $29.9M of 2025 salary locks in March 17th
Future Early: $59.35M through 2027

Clayton Tune

Total Remaining: 3 years, $3M ($0 guaranteed)

ATLANTA

There's a very real chance that Atlanta boasts an entirely different QB room by the end of the summer. Heinicke's looming roster bonus probably sends him back to the open market in a few weeks.

Taylor Heinicke

Total Remaining: 1 year, $7M
Right Now: None
Soon: $1.32M roster bonus due March 16th

Desmond Ridder

Total Remaining: 2 years, $2.6M ($0 guaranteed)

BALTIMORE

By March 18th, Lamar Jackson will be fully guaranteed through the next two seasons.

Lamar Jackson

Total Remaining: 4 years, $180M
Practical Remaining: 3 years, $128M
Right Now: $32.5M in 2024, $22.5M in 2025
Soon: $18.25M of 2025 compensation locks March 18th
Future Early: $29M through 2026

Malik Cunningham

Total Remaining: 1 year, $915k ($0 guaranteed)

BUFFALO

Despite five more seasons of term, Josh Allen's contract contains only two more seasons of practical guarantees. Things could get fun in Buffalo sooner rather than later.

Josh Allen

Total Remaining: 5 years, $189.5M
Practical Remaining: 2 years, $69.5M
Right Now: $29.5M in 2024, $25M in 2025
Soon: $14M of 2025 salary locks March 17th
Future Early: None

Shane Buechele

Total Remaining: 1 year,  $1.025M, $40k guaranteed

CAROLINA

With Andy Dalton already half-guaranteed in 2024, it's largely expected that he and Young remain the 1-2 punch for Carolina this season.

Bryce Young

Total Remaining: 3 years, $12.5M + option
Right Now: $12.5M
Soon: 2027 5th year option in 2026

Andy Dalton

Total Remaining: 1 year, $4M
Right Now: $2M
Soon: None
Future Early: None

CHICAGO

A lot might change in the coming weeks, but for now, Fields is on a 1 year guarantee, with an option decision due May 2nd.

Justin Fields

Total Remaining: 1 year, $3.2M + option
Right Now: $3.2M
Soon: $25.664M 5th year option (May 2nd)
Future Early: None

Tyson Bagent

Total Remaining: 2 years, $2M ($0 guaranteed)

CINCINNATI

Cincy locked in Burrow through 2025 at signing, and the deal is structured with stability through 2027.

Joe Burrow

Total Remaining: 6 years, $264.5M
Practical Remaining: 4 years, $173.4M
Right Now: $65.7M thru 2024, $35.25M thru 2025
Soon: None.
Future Early: $53.5M through 2027

CLEVELAND

Still fully guaranteed through 2026.

Deshaun Watson

Total Remaining: 3 years, $138M
Practical Remaining: 3 years, $138M
Right Now: $138M through 2026
Soon: None.
Future Early: None.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson

Total Remaining: 3 year, $3M ($0 guaranteed)

DALLAS

Something needs to be done to Dak Prescott's $59.4M cap hit. Will it be a mind-boggling extension? Also, Trey Lance is one of the most expensive backups in football right now.

Dak Prescott

Total Remaining: 1 year, $34M
Right Now: None.
Soon: $5M roster bonus due March 18th

Trey Lance

Total Remaining: 1 year, $5.3M + option
Right Now: $5.3M
Soon: $22.408M 5th year option (May 2nd)

Cooper Rush

Total Remaining: 1 year, $2.25M ($0 guaranteed)

DENVER

How Denver operates with Russell Wilson's contract over the next few weeks could change the way teams deal with large contracts forever.

Russell Wilson

Total Remaining: 5 years, $211M
Practical Remaining: 2 years, $76M
Right Now: $39M through 2024
Soon: $37M 2025 salary locks March 17th
Future Early: None.

Jarrett Stidham

Total Remaining: 1 year, $6M
Right Now: $1M of 2024 salary
Soon: $1M roster bonus

Ben DiNucci

Total Remaining: 1 year, $985k ($0 guaranteed)

DETROIT

Jared Goff has done more than enough to garner a top-level QB contract this spring. Will it come before his March 14th roster bonus is due?

Jared Goff

Total Remaining: 1 year, $26.6M
Right Now: None
Soon: $5M roster bonus due March 14th

Hendon Hooker

Total Remaining: 3 years, $3.8M ($0 guaranteed)

GREEN BAY

Jordan Love won't be playing out 2024 on an $11M salary, and that is far from a hot take.

Jordan Love

Total Remaining: 1 year, $11M
Right Now: $10.5M

Sean Clifford

Total Remaining: 3 years, $3M ($0 guaranteed)

Alex McGough

Total Remaining: 1 year, $915k ($0 guaranteed)

HOUSTON

The Texans have struck lightning in a bottle. Now to fill out the rest of this roster accordingly...

C.J. Stroud

Total Remaining: 3 years, $12.1M + option
Right Now: $12.1M through 2026
Soon: 2027 5th year option (May 2026)

Case Keenum

Total Remaining: 1 year, $3M
Right Now: $1M

Davis Mills

Total Remaining: 1 year, $1.3M ($0 guaranteed)

Tim Boyle

Total Remaining: 1 year, $1.125M ($0 guaranteed)

INDIANAPOLIS

The Colts MIGHT have struck lightning in a bottle. Now to fill out the rest of this roster accordingly...

Anthony Richardson

Total Remaining: 3 years, $11.5M + option
Right Now: $11.5M through 2026
Soon: 2027 5th year option (May 2026)

Sam Ehlinger

Total Remaining: 1 year, $1M ($0 guaranteed)

JACKSONVILLE

Will the Jags wait one more year to see if Lawrence can take the next step, or pay him now hoping to gain some value before he actually does?

Trevor Lawrence

Total Remaining: 1 years, $5.6M + option
Right Now: $5.6M
Soon: $25.664M option by May 2nd

C.J. Beathard

Total Remaining: 1 years, $1.92M ($0 guaranteed)

KANSAS CITY

Cash flow adjusted through 2026; Another Super Bowl won; It's just fine being Patrick Mahomes.

Patrick Mahomes

Total Remaining: 8 years, $361.45M
Practical Remaining: 7 years, $313M
Right Now: $76.85M through 2025
Soon: None
Future Early: $64.5M through 2030

Ian Book

Total Remaining: 1 year, $985k ($0 guaranteed)

Chris Oladokun

Total Remaining: 1 year, $805,000 ($135k guaranteed)

LAS VEGAS

The Raiders won't owe Garoppolo a dime (suspension) to move on this March, putting them in the driver's seat for a Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields conversation.

Jimmy Garoppolo

Total Remaining: 2 years, $48.5M
Right Now: None.
Soon: $11.25M roster bonus due March 17th

Brian Hoyer

Total Remaining: 1 year, $2.3M
Right Now: $2.165M

Aidan O'Connell

Total Remaining: 3 years, $3M ($0 guaranteed)

Anthony Brown

Total Remaining: 1 year, $915k ($0 guaranteed)

LA CHARGERS

Plenty of change in LA, but not at the QB position. Herbert’s contract is rock solid through 2028.

Justin Herbert

Total Remaining: 6 years, $279.1M
Practical Remaining: 5 years, $228.6M
Right Now: $116.6M through 2025
Soon: None
Future Early: $85M through 2028

Max Duggan

Total Remaining: 1 year, $795k ($0 guaranteed)

LA RAMS

Stafford posted a fantastic 2023, making his fully guaranteed 2024 and soon to be partially guaranteed 2025 much easier to swallow.

Matthew Stafford

Total Remaining: 3 years, $94M
Practical Remaining: 2 years, $63M
Right Now: $31M through 2024
Soon: $10M 2025 roster bonus guarantees March 15th

Stetson Bennett

Total Remaining: 3 years, $3M ($0 guaranteed)

Dresser Winn

Total Remaining: 2 years, $1.755M ($0 guaranteed)

MIAMI

All signs point to an incoming Tua extension in Miami. He’s on a fully guaranteed $23M until then.

Tua Tagovailoa

Total Remaining: 1 year, $23.171M
Right Now: $23.171M

Mike White

Total Remaining: 1 year, $3.5M ($0 guaranteed)

Skylar Thompson

Total Remaining: 2 years, $2M ($0 guaranteed)

MINNESOTA

Kirk Cousins needs to be re-signed by March 13th to stop his full $28.5M of voidable dead cap from hitting their books in 2024. Also, they could use a starting QB.

Jaren Hall

Total Remaining: 3 years, $3M ($0 guaranteed)

NEW ENGLAND

It stands to reason that some team will throw a late draft pick out there for Mac Jones at $2.7M this year. His $25.6M option for 2025?

Mac Jones

Total Remaining: 1 year, $2.7M + option
Right Now: $2.7M
Soon: $25.6M option decision due May 2nd

Bailey Zappe

Total Remaining: 1 year, $985k ($0 guaranteed)

NEW ORLEANS

Carr's massive $30M salary cap conversion in 2024 probably solidified him staying in this contract through 2025.

Derek Carr

Total Remaining: 3 years, $120M
Practical Remaining: 2 years, $70M
Right Now: $30M through 2024
Soon: $10M 2025 roster bonus guarantees March 15th

Jake Haener

Total Remaining: 3 years, $3M ($0 guaranteed)

NY GIANTS

Daniel Jones is fully guaranteed through 2024, but maybe more importantly - $23M of his 2025 salary is guaranteed for injury. Playing him this year could be risky business.

Daniel Jones

Total Remaining: 3 years, $114M
Practical Remaining: 1 year, $36M
Right Now: $35.5M through 2024

Tommy DeVito

Total Remaining: 1 year, $915k ($0 guaranteed)

NY JETS

Let's try this again. Aaron Rodgers now lives on a 1 year, $38.1M contract. Will the Jets go all in this year?

Aaron Rodgers

Total Remaining: 2 years, $75.6M
Practical Guaranteed: 1 year, $38.1M
Right Now: $38.1M through 2024

Zach Wilson

Total Remaining: 1 year, $5.4M + option
Right Now: $5.4M
Soon: $22.408M option decision due May 2nd

PHILADELPHIA

Jalen Hurts' contract is rock solid through 2027, so the Eagles have time to right this ship, but their contractual structures make it very hard to change a lot of things in a little amount of time.

Jalen Hurts

Total Remaining: 5 years, $235M
Practical Remaining: 4 years, $184M
Right Now: $85.696M through 2026
Soon: $16.5M of 2026 salary locks March 18th
Future Early: $22M of 2027 salary in 2026

Tanner McKee

Total Remaining: 3 years, $3M ($0 guaranteed)

PITTSBURGH

The Steelers are an early favorite to sign a veteran QB to compete with Pickett and his 2 year, $4.5M guarantee for the upcoming season.

Kenny Pickett

Total Remaining: 2 years, $4.5M + option
Right Now: $4.5M through 2025
Soon: 2026 option decision due May 2025

SAN FRANCISCO

Purdy’s contract is untouchable, so the focus here turns to who gets the backup gig again.

Brock Purdy

Total Remaining: 2 years, $2M ($0 guaranteed)

SEATTLE

Geno’s 2024 base salary was fully guaranteed a few days after the Super Bowl, and Seatle recently converted his looming roster bonus into signing bonus for cap purposes. It’s Smith’s team again in 2024.

Geno Smith

Total Remaining: 2 years, $53.2M
Practical Remaining: 1 year, $22.5M
Right Now: $22.3M through 2024

TAMPA BAY

Tampa Bay won the NFC South + Wild Card round game. Seems like an add or two should probably be made here.

Kyle Trask

Total Remaining: 1 year, $1.4M ($0 guaranteed)

TENNESSEE

If Levis can figure it out, there’s still plenty of time for value here. Tennessee remains a dark horse to sign a veteran QB however.

Will Levis

Total Remaining: 3 years, $4.84M
Right Now: $4.03M through 2026

Malik Willis

Total Remaining: 2 years, $2.57M ($0 guaranteed)

WASHINGTON

There’s a new sheriff coming to town. Will Sam Howell be a trade chip?

Sam Howell

Total Remaining: 2 years, $2M ($0 guaranteed)

The NFL has now set its financial thresholds for the upcoming 2024 season, including a surprisingly high $255.4M league salary cap. We'll take a look at a few updated figures from the top down, including spending floor info, minimum salaries, the veteran minimum cap benefit, restricted free agent tenders, & official franchise & transition tag values.

NFL League Salary Cap

The 2024 salary cap rose to historic levels this season, both as an overall number of course and also in terms of the amount of increase over last season's figure. The $30.6M increase shattered the recent leader in the clubhouse (2022: $25.7M), due in large part to the fact that all of the "borrowed" money for COVID-strapped seasons have now been accounted for. Also, there seems to be a fairly strong level of general interest in the league...

Related: Full NFL Salary Cap Listing

NFL Spending Floor

While the NFL doesn't have an annual spending minimum, the latest CBA continued to institute a 3-year threshold requirement. NFL teams will need to cash spend 90% of the next 3 league salary cap maximums combined. For instance, if the 2024, 2025, & 2026 league salary caps come in at $255M, $265M, & $275M ($795M total), each team will be required to spend $715,500,000 minimum across that span.

2024 Minimum Salaries

NFL minimum salaries got their usual $45,000 raise this year.

Veteran Minimum Benefit
Players with 4 or more credited seasons who sign a 1 year contract this offseason can qualify for a salary cap benefit. For instance, Player A has 5 years of service, and agrees to a minimum contract with a team this March. The player will sign a contract with a base salary of $1,125,000, however the salary cap charge will drop down to $985,000. Additionally, veteran minimum contracts can include up to $167,500 of bonus money (signing, roster, per game active, workout), and still qualify for the cap reduction. For example, Player A is given a $25,000 signing bonus and a $25,000 bonus if he makes the Week 1 roster in addition to his minimum salary. This represents a $1,175,000 total value contract in 2024. But for salary cap purposes, the charge is calculated as $985,000 + $25,000 + $25,000, or $1,035,000.

Related: Complete Minimum Salary Table

2024 Restricted Free Agent Tenders

Right of First Refusal: $2,985,000
The team will have a right to match any offer sheet, but there will be no draft compensation rewarded should the player sign an offer sheet and leave.

Original Round Tender: $3,116,000
The team will have a right to match any offer sheet, but will be rewarded a draft pick in the same round that the player was originally drafted should the player sign an offer sheet and leave.

2nd Round Tender: $4,890,000
The team will have a right to match any offer sheet, but will be rewarded a 2nd round pick should the player sign an offer sheet and leave.

1st Round Tender: $6,822,000
The team will have a right to match any offer sheet, but will be rewarded a 1st round pick should the player sign an offer sheet and leave.

Related: 2024 Restricted Free Agents

2024 Franchise & Transition Tag Values

Related: NFL Franchise Tag Historicals

The Bills approach March with more than $50M of cap to clear, & a half dozen of notable defensive players set to hit the open market. Factor in a mess of a contract situation with ED Von Miller, a rumored mess with WR Stefon Diggs, and Buffalo might be one of the more polarizing teams to follow in the coming weeks.

RELATED
2024 Buffalo Bills Salary Cap Table

2024 Pending Bills’ Free Agents

Cap Casualties ($17M saved)

Tre'Davious White (CB)

White won’t be healthy enough to pass a physical this March, so the most likely outcome here is that Buffalo releases him via a failed physical designation before his $1.5M March 18th roster bonus becomes due. The Bills could/should work out a renegotiated contract with White to retain his services in some capacity.
Potential March Savings: $6M

Ryan Bates (G/C)

Moving on from Bates would be risky, as he’s one of the better “6th-Men” in all of football. But if the plan is to keep Mitch Morse one more season (and all signs point to that being the case), Bates may simply be too expensive to remain in his depth role. There should be trade value here, so freeing up $1.4M of cap, and adding a draft pick or two could be win/win.
Potential March Savings: $1.43M

Deonte Harty (KR/WR)

Harty never fully materialized as an asset in the offensive gameplan, despite showing plenty of signs of that in New Orleans leading up to his signing with the Bills. His versatility is valuable, but a $4.24M salary & $5.5M cap figure likely makes him too rich to keep in this current setting.
Harty has a $500,000 roster bonus due March 18th, so Buffalo will need to make a decision prior to that date.
Potential March Savings: $4.1M

Nyheim Hines (KR/RB)

Hines missed all of 2023 due to a non-football injury. Like Harty (above), he’s probably a tad bit overpaid for his role (returner, running back), but it seems likely that Buffalo will hang on to one of the two for the 2024 season. Moving on from Hines before a March 18th roster bonus ($500,000) can open up $4.9M.
Potential March Savings: $4.9M

Damar Hamlin (S)

Hamlin’s role has been reduced to special teams almost exclusively. While Buffalo will be seeking depth in their secondary, taking the $1M of space by moving off of this contract likely makes sense early on.
Potential March Savings: $1.055M

Cap Conversions ($42.8M saved)

Process a full base salary plus $6M roster bonus conversion on QB Josh Allen, freeing up $22.7M of cap. Allen has 5 years remaining on his current contract.

Process a full base salary plus $1M roster bonus conversion on OL Mitch Morse, freeing up $5.3M of cap space when factoring in 4 void years. Morse is almost 32 years old, so an extension probably doesn’t make sense here.

Process a $5M roster bonus conversion on TE Dawson Knox, freeing up $4M of cap when factoring in 2 void years. Knox is a fringe roster bubble candidate, but $8.58M of his 2024 compensation is already fully guaranteed. Assuming the Bills move on after 2024, the contract will carry an $11.8M dead cap hit after this conversion (still saving $3.6M).

Process a $10M salary conversion on ED Von Miller. This one is a true numbers game. By March 18th, all $17.145M of Miller’s 2024 salary will become fully guaranteed. A full base salary conversion would open up over $12.7M of space, but would increase his 2025 dead cap hit north of his current $23.8M cap figure next season. Pushing out $8M of cap as projected here keeps the Bills on the right side of the dead cap spectrum in 2025 (when they will almost certainly move on).

Process a full base salary conversion on S Jordan Poyer, tacking on 4 void years. At nearly 33-years-old, it stands to reason that 2024 could be Poyer’s last. Buffalo can open up $2.8M of much needed space this season by utilizing this void year strategy.

Extensions ($12.9M saved)

Dion Dawkins (LT)

The nearly 30-year-old had his best season to date in 2023, solidifying his role on Josh Allen’s blindside for the foreseeable future. Dawkins is entering the final season of a 5 year, $59M deal in Buffalo, set to earn $10.3M cash in 2024. We’re projecting a 3 year, $57M extension, including $36.5M fully guaranteed at signing, and $50M across the next 3 seasons. The deal would lower his current 2024 by $5.3M.

Taron Johnson (CB)

Johnson’s worth and value was on full display both when he was making plays on the field - and maybe more importantly, when he was noticeably absent due to injury. The 27-year-old enters a contract year in 2024, set to earn $7.7M against a $12.4M cap hit. We’re projecting a 3 year, $42M extension for Johnson that includes $21.1M fully guaranteed at signing, through 2025. Our projection also lowers his 2024 cap hit by $3.6M.

Rasul Douglas (CB)

Douglas was the one of the better trade deadline acquisitions across the league last October, and he enters a contract year in Buffalo, set to earn $9M against a $9M cap hit. We’re projecting a 2 year, $28M tack on extension here, including $13M in 2024, $20.5M fully guaranteed through 2025, and a $4M reduction of his 2024 cap hit.

But What Abouts

Stefon Diggs (WR)

Despite the rumors, Diggs’ contract says he’s going nowhere in 2024, at least for now. If a few things fall Buffalo’s way in the coming months, a Post June 1st trade could certainly be an option - but generally speaking that’s a very low possibility in this league. The Bills hold $31M of bonus proration dead cap on Diggs right now. Next season, those numbers are already $22.2M dead against $27.3M active cap. So while Buffalo would like to do something about his $27.8M cap figure this season, processing any type of salary conversion would further impact their ability to move on after 2024 - a likely scenario based on many factors. All $18.5M of Diggs’ 2024 salary will become fully guaranteed on March 17th.

Matt Milano (LB)

Milano was extended last March to a 2 year, $28M contract that included an $11.8M signing bonus in 2023, and a $10M option bonus for 2024. In this regard his “conversion” was already baked into the cake. Buffalo will have an opportunity to push some cap down the road next season, when he carries a $16.1M cap hit for 2025, though his dead cap figure is already north of his active cap figure.

Ed Oliver (DT)

Oliver signed his massive sophomore extension last June, including a $14.75M signing bonus for 2023, & a $12.5M option bonus in March of 2024. This structure kept his cap figure at bay for the upcoming season ($9.725M). Buffalo will look to address his contract again in 2025, when Oliver’s cap hit spikes to $20.75M.

Six notable quarterbacks could be eyeing a big pay day this NFL offseason. We detail full contract breakdown projections for Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Jordan Love, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, & Trevor Lawrence this spring.

KIRK COUSINS (VIKINGS, 36)

Quick Details
3 years, $100,000,000
$33,333,333 AAV
$75M Guaranteed at Signing
$75M Practically Guaranteed

Cousins has spent 6 years on a fully guaranteed contract in Minnesota, but that may not be in the cards this time around. While a return to the Vikings still appears imminent, Cousins may need to drop his value to secure 2 fully guaranteed seasons on his next contract, as we’ve noted here. In this projection, Cousins gets $50M in 2024, and is fully guaranteed $75M through 2025.

JORDAN LOVE (PACKERS, 25)

Quick Details
4 years, $200,000,000
$50,000,000 AAV
$87.5M Guaranteed at Sign
$150M Practically Guaranteed

Love more than outplayed his bridge extension in 2023, making it unrealistic that he would play out the 2024 campaign on a 1 year, $11M contract. We've projected a 4 year, $200M extension for the 25 year old, including a $50M signing bonus, & $87.5M fully guaranteed at signing. The deal contains large roster bonuses that vest 1 offseason early for 2026 ($37.5M) & 2027 ($25M) raising the practical guarantee on this deal up to $150M. Love secures a $40M raise this season within this projection.

DAK PRESCOTT (COWBOYS, 31)

Quick Details
3 years, $180,000,000
$60,000,000 AAV
$119M Guaranteed at Signing
$169M Practically Guaranteed

The Cowboys have a few options with Dak Prescott, but the most likely outcome is an extension for the 31-year-old this offseason. We haven’t been shy with this one, making Prescott the first $60M per year player in terms of new money average. In total, we’ve projected a 4 year, $214M contract, with $169M guaranteed for practical purposes, and $119M of it fully guaranteed at signing. Prescott secures an historic $75M signing bonus, and his cap figure for 2024 lowers from $59.4M to $41.6M.

TUA TAGOVAILOA (DOLPHINS, 25)

Quick Details
4 years, $220,000,000
$55,000,000 AAV
$105M Guaranteed at Signing
$165M Practically Guaranteed

The Dolphins appear poised to extend Tua this offseason, who is entering his fully guaranteed 5th-year-option season (valued at $23.171M). We’ve projected a contract that tacks on 4 years & $220M, or 5 years, $243M total value. Of this, $105M is fully guaranteed at signing through 2025, another $50M locks in next March, and a final $10M roster bonus vests a year early for the 2027 season. Miami may look to build in per game active bonuses for this contract based on Tagovailoa’s injury history, but we’ve opted to leave these out for now. The bottom line here is that no player in football has more leverage than an above-average quarterback, and that has been reflected here.

TREVOR LAWRENCE (JAGUARS, 25)

Quick Details
6 years, $300,00,000
$50,000,000 AAV
$105M Guaranteed at Signing
$175M Practically Guaranteed

Lawrence hasn’t lived up to the full billing of his #1 overall draft pick status, but it appears he’s done enough to at least get the conversation started regarding a long-term extension in Jacksonville. Mathematically he’s a $48M player in our system, but we’ve upped our projection to an even $50M per year in terms of new money. Lawrence’s rookie contract currently carries around $27.5M remaining (4th year salary + expected 5th year option for 2025), making the total value of this contract 8 years, $327,500,000. Of that, $105M is fully guaranteed at signing, with another $70M set to lock in by March of 2026. There’s a lot of “fluff” built into the backend of this contract, affording the Jaguars a chance to gain significant value if Lawrence progresses into elite status over the next few seasons. And if not, it’ll be 4 years, $175M and then on to the next.

JARED GOFF (LIONS, 29)

Quick Details
4 years, $180,000,000
$45,000,000 AAV
$86.5M Guaranteed at Signing
$146.5M Practically Guaranteed

Goff has answered every bell since joining the Lions, and now enters an expiring contract year, set to earn $26.6M against a $31.6M cap hit. It’s not a foregone conclusion that Detroit will extend Goff this offseason, but for now it remains highly likely. We’ve tacked on 4 new years, $180M new money to his contract, combining for a total value 5 years, $206.5M. While we’ve only allocated $86.5M guaranteed at signing (a little escrow relief for a front office that might have 4 large extensions to process this spring), from a practical standpoint, we’ve locked in $146.5M of this contract (71%). Goff earns a $20M pay raise in 2024, and $136.5M over the next 3 seasons. It’s far from a top of the market contract, but it might be just what the doctor ordered to the Lions competitive for the next few seasons.

BAKER MAYFIELD (BUCCANEERS, 29)

Quick Details
4 years, $120,000,000
$30,000,000 AAV
$53M Guaranteed at Signing
$85M Practically Guaranteed

Baker's comeback has been one of the more enjoyable storylines of the past few seasons, culminating with a playoff win this past season with the Bucs. Tampa Bay is trying to keep Baker off of the open market at the final hour. We've projected a contract that essentially plays like a cap-adjusted version of Geno Smith's deal in Seattle, while using a double bonus structure to keep cap hits insanely low over the next two seasons.

With the 2024 league year less than a month away (March 13th), NFL teams will soon begin to make plenty of moves to begin the process of getting cap compliant from a Top 51 standpoint. We’ve identified at each major position group that is currently trending toward a release, trade, or retirement in the coming weeks, including any pertinent financial information for each.

QB: Russell Wilson (DEN, 35)

The contract might not say it’s time to move on - but the Broncos certainly are. There are a few ways Wilson’s release can go down, and we’ve detailed those as much as possible here. All you need to know for now, is that the deal contacts $39M in guaranteed cash, and $85M of total dead cap. Denver’s Contract Options with Russell Wilson

Also: Jimmy Garoppolo (LV), Zach Wilson (NYJ), Mac Jones (NE)

RB: Nick Chubb (CLE, 28)

The Browns absolutely want a healthy Nick Chubb leading their offense again, but that might be easier said than done at this point. The reality here is that an organization with -$20M of cap space right now, probably needs to get out of this Chubb deal, freeing up $11.8M of cap in doing so. A reunion on a much more team-friendly contract can certainly be hammered out in succession.

Also: Miles Sanders (CAR), Nyheim Hines (BUF), Jeff Wilson (MIA)

WR: Mike Williams (LAC, 29)

Williams was going to be a bubble candidate even before the ACL injury, which further complicates things for the Chargers this March. If Williams can’t yet pass a physical, LA will need to carry this contract indefinitely before making a firm decision. There’s a $3M roster bonus due on March 15th, but none of his $17M base salary will become guaranteed until Week 1. The Chargers may opt to process a salary cap conversion, and stash him on a PUP list through the spring.

Also: Brandon Aiyuk (SF), Tim Patrick (DEN), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC)

TE: C.J. Uzomah (NYJ, 31)

It doesn’t appear as though the Jets are primed to shake up their roster a whole lot this offseason, but picking up an extra $5.3M of cap space & upgrading the TE room this spring probably makes a lot of sense. Uzomah has just 29 catches in 27 games as a Jet.

Also: Will Dissly (SEA), Jonnu Smith (ATL), Logan Thomas (WSH)

OT: David Bakhtiari (GB, 32)

Much of Bakhtiari’s 5 year, $107M contract has been detoured by injury, as the former 4th round pick has seen action in just 14 games across the past 3 seasons. Green Bay can open up almost $21M of much needed cap space by moving on this March.

Also: Joseph Noteboom (LAR), Chukwuma Okorafor (PIT)

G: Laken Tomlinson (NYJ, 32)

Tomlinson started 16 games last season, but appears to be showing direct signs of decline as his clock turns past 32-years of age. The Jets will certainly focus their offseason on the interior of their offensive line, so opening up $8.1M of cap space by moving on here makes sense.

Also: Austin Corbett (CAR), Ryan Bates (BUF)

C: Corey Linsley (LAC, 32)

Linsley was diagnosed with a heart-related condition during the 2023 season, putting his football career on high notice. The guaranteed portion of his 5 year, $62.5M contract has expired, and the Chargers can open up $8.9M of cap by moving on (or with an expected retirement).

Also: Mason Cole (PIT) 

DL: Devon Godchaux (NE, 29)

Godchaux was on an upward trajectory in New England, just 18 months removed from an extension that secured him $15M guaranteed, but started to see his playing time reduced slightly in the 2023 campaign. He carries a non-guaranteed $8.15M for 2024, all of which can be freed up if the Patriots decide to release or trade him this spring.

Also: D.J. Jones (DEN), Harrison Phillips (MIN), Bryan Mone (SEA)

ED: Joey Bosa (LAC, 28)

The Hot Stove has been full of reports that the Chargers may move on from 32-year-old Khalil Mack this spring (maybe rightfully so?), but the franchise may be more concerned about the availability of Joey Bosa going forward. The former #3 overall pick has been paid over $45M for just 14 games played since 2022. Bosa’s deal contains 2 years, $47.3M remaining, and the Chargers can free up over $14M of space by moving on by March 15th, when a $7M roster bonus is due.

Also: Khalil Mack (LAC), Emmanuel Ogbah (MIA), Tyus Bowser (BAL)

LB: Leighton Vander Esch (DAL, 28)

A neck injury (spinal stenosis) could force Vander Esch to walk away from the game this offseason. $1M of his 2024 salary is fully guaranteed, leading to $2.25M of dead cap against a $4.4M hit.

Also: De'Vondre Campbell (GB)

CB: Xavien Howard (MIA, 30)

Howard agreed to a restructured contract back in April of 2022, earning $37.5M over the past two seasons in Miami. An early trade/release only frees up $2.8M of cap space, but a Post June 1st designation can open up $18.5M on June 2nd. Can the Dolphins afford to keep his $25.9M hit on the books that long?

Also: J.C. Jackson (NE), Tre'Davious White (BUF), Donte Jackson (CAR)

S: Jamal Adams (SEA, 28)

Back to Back to Back IR stints have made Jamal Adams’ 4 year, $70M contract in Seattle one of the tougher ones to swallow. With the guaranteed portion of this contract now expired, the Seahawks can move on this March, freeing up $6M of 2024 cap in doing so.

Also: Budda Baker (ARI), Kevin Byard (PHI), Tracy Walker (DET)

K: Jake Moody (SF, 24)

Will the Niners front office give up on a 2023 3rd round pick this quickly? In most cases this answer would be no, but San Francisco’s reluctance to utilize Moody in big spots down the stretch has to be a factor in how they feel about him long-term. None of the $3.7M due over the next 3 seasons is guaranteed.

Also: Eddy Pineiro (CAR), Anders Carlson (GB)

P: Tress Way (WSH, 33)

Way has spent the past decade in Washington, but a parting could be in the cards this offseason. The Commanders can free up all of his $3.15M salary in the coming months.

Also: Johnny Hekker (CAR), Jamie Gillan (NYG)

Can you imagine if we knew nothing about the turmoil between Russell Wilson and the Broncos right now? Sometime around March 16th, Adam Schefter would casually drop a tweet letting the world know that Denver was in the process of releasing their fully guaranteed QB, and the football world would have been shook for days.

Unfortunately, Denver is so psyched to move on from him, they let the cat out of the bag last Fall. We’ll detail how this mess might shake out from a financial perspective, offering our best educated guess on how things might go in the coming weeks.

A few quick notes before we get deep into the weeds...

• Wilson's $39M 2024 compensation is already fully guaranteed
• Wilson's $22M option bonus for 2024 is due March 17th
• Wilson's $37M 2025 salary becomes fully guaranteed on March 17th
• The deal contains $85M of dead cap ($46M bonus proration, $39M cash)

Just Give it To Me Now Doc

If the Broncos really want to cause a stir, they can simply outright release Wilson before March 17th. All that would lead to is a $39M cash payment, and an $85M dead cap hit (a loss of $49.6M against their 2024 cap table). Something tells me they won’t be going this route…

The Classic Post 6/1 Designation

If the Broncos were to do absolutely nothing to this contract, but then designate Wilson a Post 6/1 release prior to March 17th (when his $37M salary for 2025 becomes fully guaranteed), Denver would carry his entire $35.4M salary cap hit into June, then take on dead cap hits of $53M for 2024, & $32M in 2025. Seems backwards right? The issue here is that $22M of Wilson’s 2024 compensation comes in the form of an option bonus. If that option isn’t exercised, it turns into a guaranteed salary. So Denver would be allocating $39M of salary + $14M of bonus proration into the 2024 season per this move. The reason to go this route? Front load the damage, and make the 2025 situation a little more palatable.

Exercise Early

Wilson’s 2024 compensation breaks down as a $17M base salary, & a $22M option bonus - all of which is fully guaranteed. If Denver exercises the option bonus then designates him a Post June 1st release (before March 17th), they can push $17.6M of that cap into 2025, leading to a $35.4M dead hit in 2024, & a $49.6M hit in 2025. This represents $0 savings for the upcoming season, but actually opens up $5.8M of cap for the 2025 season. Just for clarity, Wilson still gets his $39M cash payment in 2024. This is simply a maneuver to adjust the cap allocations a bit.

Cap Convert It All

If the Broncos feel like they need to free up cap space in 2024 by moving on from their $39M guaranteed QB (snarky tone), they can exercise the $22M option bonus AND convert $15.79M of his $17M base salary into a signing bonus this March. Then, a Post June 1st release designation would come with a 2024 dead cap hit of $22.768M, but a 2025 dead cap hit at $62.2M. Again, not ideal - but nothing here will be. Just for clarity, Wilson still gets his $39M cash payment in 2024. This is simply a maneuver to adjust the cap allocations a bit.

Find a Trade Partner

We’re not going to spend too much time here as A) it’s highly unlikely and B) any possibility for a trade will have to include some sort of retained salary, which comes with endless outcomes.

For practicality purposes, let’s just throw this scenario out there. Denver exercises the $22M option bonus, spreading it out over the next 5 seasons of the contract for cap purposes. They then carry Wilson’s $35.4M salary cap hit into June, and pray that somebody’s free agency & draft went horribly wrong a month ago. Now, Wilson is on a $17M guarantee for 2024, & a $37M guarantee for 2025. Is there a team willing to take on Russell Wilson at 2 years, $54M?

Just Let it Ride

By all accounts, the relationship between Denver & Russell Wilson is long past the point of return, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the Broncos have to shred this contract up. Deciding not to play Wilson is not a breach of terms here by any means. The structure of this contract says that these two sides should remain married through 2024 (and 2025, but we won’t go there). Is this situation really that much different than what the TItans just went through with Ryan Tanehill?

Tannehill played out 2023 on a $36.6M cap hit in Tennessee. Injury & poor play saw him lose the starting role midseason, and the Titans simply rolled on. Now that isn’t exactly an apples to apples comparison, as Tannehill will now walk into free agency, leaving behind only $9.2M of voided dead cap. But the point here is that teams have become much less sensitive to dealing with ugly cap charges, even if they don’t net any positive football return.

Wilson will be demanding a trade or release this offseason - there’s no question to be had there - but the Broncos will not be required to comply.

The Likely Outcome

Time travel back to August 31st 2022 and never offer Wilson this contract extension, leaving him on a 2 year, $51M contract that would have expired after the 2023 season, leaving Denver with $0 of dead cap and Wilson the chance to hit free agency?

But back to reality here, it’s not my money so the Classic Post June 1st Designation could be the best way forward here. If we’re reading the Broncos properly, it appears as though a few notable players could be moved on from, signifying a bit of a purge/reset season. In that same breath, declining Wilson’s $22M option bonus, taking the $53M dead cap hit this season, and the $32M hit in 2025 seems to align with this mindset.

A $53M dead cap hit would easily become the highest ever single season cap figure (for an active or inactive player), but that’s the price to pay for bailing out of a monster QB contract 2 years before you’re supposed to.

With Super Bowl 58 upon us, Spotrac dives into 10 players set to take the field who are eyeing up sizable paydays in the coming weeks and months.

Chris Jones

DEFENSIVE TACKLE, KC, 29

Jones was looking for $30M per year this time last offseason. An unsuccessful holdout & a great 2023 campaign and a $33M+ franchise tag value keeps that hope alive this time around. One of the best interior DLs of this generation should have no trouble securing his asking price on the open market, but we’ll predict a slightly less figure to return to KC (again).

Projected Contract: 3 years, $85M ($75M guaranteed)

Fred Warner

LINEBACKER, SF, 28

Arguably the best off-ball linebacker in all of football, Warner enters a contract year in 2024, set to earn $19.5M against a sizable $24.4M cap figure. Extending the leader of their defense to lower that hit seems a no brainer for the upcoming offseason - but it won’t be cheap.

Projected Contract: 4 years, $80M ($45M guaranteed)

Brandon Aiyuk

WIDE RECEIVER, SF, 25

Heading toward a fully guaranteed $14.1M 5th-year-option season, 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk remains the 4th option in this Niners offense, but he’s excelled over the past two seasons. Can San Francisco justify another $20M+ weapon on this team, or is a surprise trade forthcoming this March?

Projected Contract: 3 years, $69M ($44M guaranteed)

L'Jarius Sneed

CORNERBACK, KC, 27

Sneed is a strong outside coverage cornerback with the aggressiveness and mindset of a do-it-all safety. This type of resume has generally led to bigger paydays on the open market of late. Sneed is a $16M+ per year player in our system, but Xavien Howard’s $18M per year deal in Miami is a likely target here.

Projected Contract: 4 years, $65M ($35M guaranteed)

Creed Humphrey

CENTER, KC, 25

PFF’s #4 rated center for 2023, Humphrey has filled up every ounce of his rookie contract and then some to date. He became extension eligible for the first time this winter, and should be in the conversation for the largest center contract in NFL history.

Projected Contract: 4 years, $60M ($45M guaranteed)

Charvarius Ward

CORNERBACK, SF, 28

Ward finished up 2023 as PFF’s #6 rated cornerback, notably due to his ability to shut down receivers in coverage. He’s entering a contract year in 2024, set to earn $13M against an $18M cap figure. The Niners can lower that salary cap hit with a multi-year extension this spring.

Projected Contract: 3 years, $45M ($30M guaranteed)

Harrison Butker

KICKER, KC, 29

Butker has entering a contract year in 2024, set to finish out a 6 year, $21M contract in Kansas City. He finished out 2023 as one of the most effective kickers in the game, putting him in line for an extension at or around the $6M per year mark.

Projected Contract: 4 years, $22M ($12M guaranteed)

Drue Tranquill

LINEBACKER, KC, 28

Signed to a 1 year, $3M “showcase” deal by KC this past March, Tranquill proved he’s worthy of a multi-year guarantee this time around. The former 4th round pick by the Chargers could see upwards of $7M per year this March.

Projected Contract: 2 years, $14M

Chase Young

DEFENSIVE END, SF, 24

Young was a surprise move at this past deadline, joining a loaded Niners defense with a chance to reestablish his good name before his first trip to the open market. He’s likely headed for a “showcase” contract we’ve seen so many talented edge rushers take in past offseasons.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $13M + incentives

Javon Kinlaw

DEFENSIVE TACKLE, SF, 26

Kinlaw hasn’t lived up to his #14 overall ceiling, but a strong finish to his rookie contract (3.5 sacks, 25 tackles) sets him up for a potential showcase contract this March.

Projected Contract: 1 year, $5.3M

The NFL handed out 2023 honors Thursday night, focusing a spotlight on Lamar Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, & a few young Texans. Our look at how each major award winner stands going forward, financially speaking.

LEAGUE MVP

Lamar Jackson (QB, Ravens)

Remaining Contract: 4 years, $180M, $128M practically guaranteed

Lamar rolls into 2024 on a tenable $32.4M cap figure, set to earn $32.5M cash for the upcoming season. If the Ravens (who currently project to around -$1M of cap space) feel the need, they can convert Jackson’s $14.25M base salary into signing bonus, freeing up another $10.5M for March. Otherwise, this contract is locked and loaded for 3 more seasons.

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Christian McCaffrey (RB, 49ers)

Remaining Contract: 2 years, $24.2M, $0M practically guaranteed

McCaffrey will enter his age-28 season on a $14.14M cap hit, 4th most among active RBs for 2024. There’s a very real world where San Francisco offers to rip up the final two years and start fresh with a CMC contract, but for simplified purposes, a base salary conversion can free up $8.4M of cap space for March. The Niners basically stand at cap-zero right now.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Myles Garrett (DE, Browns)

Remaining Contract: 3 years, $65M, $20M practically guaranteed

Garrett enters Year 5 of a 7 year contract in Cleveland, set to earn just north of $20M cash for 2024 against a $20.1M cap hit. All $20M becomes fully guaranteed on March 15th. Expect the Browns to keep this contract as is for the upcoming season, with a multi-year restructured extension almost certain to come in March of 2025.

OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

C.J. Stroud (QB, Texans)

Remaining Contract: 3 years, $12.1M + 2027 option, $12.1M fully guaranteed

Stroud quieted plenty of doubters early, and maintained an historic level of success for a Year 1 QB, leading Houston to a division title & Wild Card win in his first NFL season. His contract can’t be touched until after the 2025 campaign, so the Texans have a few years to bolster a roster around him. They head toward March with $65M of projected cap space, & two 1st round picks in the upcoming draft.

DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Will Anderson (DE, Texans)

Remaining Contract: 3 years, $11.8M + 2027 option, $11.8M fully guaranteed

Houston is just showing off at this point. The Texans already have three absolute home runs from their 2023 draft in Stroud (#2), Anderson (#3), & Tank Dell (#69). The DROY amassed 7 sacks and 45 tackles in just under 60% of Houston’s defensive snaps this season. Look for the Texans’ to bookend him with another stud this spring.

COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Joe Flacco (QB, Browns)

Pending Free Agent

Flacco was signed off of the couch on November 20th, starting 5 regular season games plus the Wild Card matchup in Houston. He posted a decade-best 90.24 rating, while averaging a career-best 323 passing yards per game. Cleveland paid him $1.1M for his efforts, including $400,000 of bonus stemming from his regular season victories. A reunion on a healthy backup contract makes an awful lot of sense here.

WALTER PAYTON AWARD

Cameron Heyward (DL, Saints)

Remaining Contract: 1 year, $16M, $0 practically guaranteed

There are early rumors of retirement stirring in Pittsburgh, as the 35-year-old battled through his lowest production season in over a decade. Heyward holds a $22.4M cap figure for 2024, and the Steelers currently project to carry around -$15M of cap space heading toward March. 

The Super Bowl matchup pairs two teams that have gone down very different financial paths to get here. Our dive into how the 2023 money was allocated for the Kansas City Chiefs & San Francisco 49ers, plus notable players on each eyeing a payday in the coming weeks.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Betting against Patrick Mahomes in January is not a recommended strategy, as the 28-year-old reminded us over the past month. At $236M, KC held the 21st highest cash payroll in 2023, benefiting from a cheaper arsenal of weapons, and a few notable defensive players still on rookie contracts this past season. A huge portion of their offseason money was allocated to RT Jawaan Taylor ($60M guaranteed), & DE Charles Omenihu ($8.6M guaranteed), while the quick development of 2nd round pick WR Rashee Rice certainly factored in down the stretch.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

If you can find a 7th round starting QB who costs you $2.6M over a 3-year span, I highly recommend it. The Niners get (at least) 1 more season of ultimate value out of Brock Purdy, who used some of that extra dough to bring in Javon Hargrave ($40M guaranteed), & extend Nick Bosa ($122.5M guaranteed). San Francisco held the 6th highest cash payroll in the league this past season, paying out over $266M in total. Unlike in 2023, the 49ers currently hold all of their Top 100 draft picks, hoping to find their next wave of financial value as they continue their window of NFC contention.

PROJECTED STARTING LINEUP FINANCIALS

Detailing the combined average salary allocations for the projected Super Bowl starting lineups, broken down by Offense, Defense, & Special Teams.

2023 CASH SPENDING COMPARISON

A look at how KC & SF allocated their cash spending this past season, including where each positional figure ranks throughout the NFL.

EYEING A 2024 PAY DAY

After an unsuccessful holdout, Chiefs DT Chris Jones’ contract will once again come into focus this winter. Will the two sides come to a compromising multi-year agreement this time around? Jones’ projects toward a 3 year, $85M contract in our system.

Chiefs CB L'Jarius Sneed remains one of the best kept secrets in all of football, making big plays in big moments every single week. He’s the #2 CB in KC behind Trent McDuffie, but will certainly be seeking near CB1 money on the open market this winter. He projects toward a 4 year, $64M contract in our system.

Chiefs S Justin Reid isn’t the most decorated DB in the league, but he’s solidified a good, young secondary in KC for two seasons. Tacking on 3 new years to his 2024 season at around $9M-$10M per year makes sense.

Heading toward a fully guaranteed $14.1M 5th-year-option season, 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk remains the 4th option in this Niners offense, but he’s excelled in this offense over the past two seasons. Can San Francisco justify another $20M+ weapon on this team? Aiyuk projects toward a 4 year, $92M extension in our system.

49ers CB Charvarius Ward has more than outplayed the $27.5M earned over the past two seasons. With a cap hit that spikes to near $18M next year, tacking on additional years to lower the 2024 figure makes sense for all parties here. Ward projects toward a 4 year, $50M extension in our system.

The Niner acquired DE Chase Young from Washington at the deadline, providing ample depth to a DL that is loaded with big names. His 7.5 sacks in 2023 tied a career-high, puting him in decent shape as he nears the open market for the first time. He projects toward a 1 year, $13M incentive-laden deal in our system.

49ers OL Jon Feliciano is more of a part-time role player at this stage of his career, but his presence in depth & starting spots has dramatically improved the consistency of San Fran’s OL this past season. Bringing him back on a slightly north of minimum deal (1 year, $4M?) should be attractive for all here.

2024 CAP OUTLOOK

KC rolls into the offseason with around $23M of Top 51 cap space under their belt, with only 41 players currently under contract. Cap conversions on Patrick Mahomes, Joe Thuney, & Jawaan Taylor can open up over $54M more. 

The Niners will hit the offseason with almost no cap space to operate with initially, but they have plenty of avenues to generate room as needed. Cap conversions for core players McCaffrey, Juszczyk, Samuel, Kittle, Williams, Armstread, Hargrave, & Warner can open up over $87M of cap space this coming March.

Related:
Chiefs Offseason Analysis
49ers Offseason Analysis