Michael GinnittiJuly 18, 2021

A look at players who were exposed to the Seattle Kraken expansion draft while carrying a current cap hit at or above $3.5 million. View the entire protection/exposure list from the NHL here.

 

Carey Price MTL G $10,500,000
P.K. Subban NJD D $9,000,000
Jakub Voracek PHI F $8,250,063
Matt Duchene NSH C $8,000,000
Ryan Johansen NSH C $8,000,000
Shea Weber MTL D $7,857,143
Vladimir Tarasenko STL F $7,500,000
James Van Riemsdyk PHI F $7,000,000
Mark Giordano CGY D $6,750,000
Matthew Murray OTT G $6,250,000
Erik Johnson COL D $6,000,000
Adam Henrique ANA C $5,825,000
Jonathan Quick LAK G $5,800,000
James Neal EDM F $5,750,000
Martin Jones SJS G $5,750,000
Anton Stralman FLA D $5,500,000
Jordan Eberle NYI F $5,500,000
Jason Zucker PIT F $5,500,000
Max Domi CBJ F $5,300,000
Ondrej Palat TBL F $5,300,000
Nino Niederreiter CAR F $5,250,000
Frans Nielsen DET C $5,250,000
Yanni Gourde TBL C $5,166,666
Danny DeKeyser DET D $5,000,000
Josh Bailey NYI F $5,000,000
Evgeni Dadonov OTT F $5,000,000
Tyler Johnson TBL C $5,000,000
Ben Bishop DAL G $4,916,667
Calvin de Haan CHI D $4,550,000
Mikko Koskinen EDM G $4,500,000
Shayne Gostisbehere PHI D $4,500,000
Alexander Killorn TBL C $4,450,000
Braden Holtby VAN G $4,300,000
Oscar Klefbom EDM D $4,167,000
Jake Gardiner CAR D $4,050,000
Marcus Pettersson PIT D $4,025,175
Victor Rask MIN C $4,000,000
Justin Schultz WAS D $4,000,000
Kevin Shattenkirk ANA D $3,900,000
Brenden Dillon WAS D $3,900,000
Will Butcher NJD D $3,733,333
Brett Connolly CHI F $3,500,000
J.T Compher COL C $3,500,000
Alexander Kerfoot TOR C $3,500,000
Michael GinnittiJuly 15, 2021
Michael GinnittiJuly 08, 2021
Breaking down the upcoming offseason for each 2021-22 NHL team, including cap space figures, free agents, draft pick scenarios, thoughts on potential trades, & plenty more.

Winnipeg Jets

Current Cap Space: $20,561,144

Under Contract (15): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Andrew Copp (C, 27), Neal Pionk (D, 26)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Paul Stastny (C, 35), Mathieu Perreault (C, 33), Derek Forbort (D, 29)

Dead Cap (0):

Draft Picks: R1: #18, R2: #50, R3 #82, R5: #146

Pionk and Copp are locks to get pay raises, but the free agent focus will likey turn to the blue line, especially if that's where Seattle plucks a player off of this team. Winnipeg has some cap space ammo to work with, and should consider using it to be aggressive on the open market, as this team as young depth available, but lacks a few experienced everyday players.

 

Washington Capitals

Current Cap Space: $9,018,740

Under Contract (19): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (2): FULL LIST
Ilya Samsonov (G, 24)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Alex Ovechkin (F, 36)

Dead Cap (0):

Draft Picks: R2: #55, R4: #119, R5 #151, R6: #183, R7: #215, R7: #218

It was weird to type Alex Ovechkin's name here. It's likely a non-discussion, but he's here nonetheless. Washington has a pair of goalies they'd like to keep away from Seattle, so a side deal in that regard seems in order. Outside of that, it's a cap crunch offseason, with just north of $9M currently available. Is that even enough to get Ovechkin back in the door? There's at least one trade coming from this team that many won't expect.

 

Vegas Golden Knights

Current Cap Space: $6,383,333

Under Contract (18): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (1): FULL LIST
Quinn Hughes (D, 21),  Elias Pettersson (C, 22)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (14): FULL LIST
Brandon Sutter (C, 32), Travis Boyd (F, 28)

Dead Cap (1): Roberto Luongo ($3,033,206)

Draft Picks: R1: #9, R2: #41, R3: #73, R5: #137, R6 #169, R6, #178, R6: #190, R7: #201

Hughes and Pettersson should be locks to resign, though length could be a bit of a contested point with the long-term future of Vancouver questionable at best. The bottom line here is this roster needs to improve to attract any kind of free agent talent, and the best way to get there is via the trade. The Sabres, Coyotes, & Lightning will all be looking to move on from significant pieces this summer, and Vancouver should be a top destination to partner up with.

 

Vancouver Canucks

Current Cap Space: $15,825,127

Under Contract (17): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (11): FULL LIST
Quinn Hughes (D, 21),  Elias Pettersson (C, 22)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (13): FULL LIST
Brandon Sutter (C, 32), Travis Boyd (F, 28)

Dead Cap (1): Roberto Luongo ($3,033,206)

Draft Picks: R1: #9, R2: #41, R3: #73, R5: #137, R6 #169, R6, #178, R6: #190, R7: #201

Hughes and Pettersson should be locks to resign, though length could be a bit of a contested point with the long-term future of Vancouver questionable at best. The bottom line here is this roster needs to improve to attract any kind of free agent talent, and the best way to get there is via the trade. The Sabres, Coyotes, & Lightning will all be looking to move on from significant pieces this summer, and Vancouver should be a top destination to partner up with.

 

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Space: $9,355,217

Under Contract (17): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (5): FULL LIST

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (17): FULL LIST
Zach Hyman (C, 29), Joe Thornton (C, 42), Nick Foligno (F, 33), Alex Galchenyuk (C, 27)

Dead Cap (1): Philip Kessel ($1,200,000)

Draft Picks: R5: #153

Toronto underachieved with a roster that was somewhat "all-in" in 2020-21. With the page flipped to the offseason, they're left with a stack of unrestricted free agents, minimal cap space, and a single, fifth round draft pick. The good news is this franchise has developed a young core that will be extremely attractive to veteran free agents, and should allow for "value" signings this summer.

 

Tampa Bay Lightning

Current Cap Space: $-3,516,666

Under Contract (17): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (9): FULL LIST

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (14): FULL LIST
Blake Coleman (C, 29), Barclay Goodrow (F, 28)

Dead Cap (0):

Draft Picks: R2: #57, R3 #96, R5: #160, R6: #192, R7: #196, R7: #211, R7: #224

Cap crunch + loaded roster / expansion draft year = Seattle's going to get a good one from Tampa Bay. One bright piece to the puzzle is that the list of expiring players is minute. This won't stop the Lightning from needing to find trade parters for likely two notable players this offseason, with Tyler Johnson and Alex Killorn at the top of that list. Teams with cap space will be calling early and often to pry a player or two from the back to back champs.

 

St. Louis Blues

Current Cap Space: $17,687,500

Under Contract (18): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (11): FULL LIST
Jordan Kyrou (C, 23), Vince Dunn (D, 24), Zach Sanford (F, 26)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Mike Hoffman (F, 31), Jaden Schwartz (F, 29), Tyler Bozak (C, 35)

Dead Cap (0):

Draft Picks: R1: #17, R3 #81, R5: #145, R6: #177, R7: #198

This offseason starts and maybe ends with how the Vladimir Tarasenko trade demand comes to a head. The Blues are a team that stumbled backwards a bit last season, and certainly losing a player of this caliber, could continue that downward spiral. There's a chance many of these notable free agents don't get renewed in St. Louis, though the cap space freed up to move on from Tarasenko could allow for more long-term offers to Kyrou, Sanford, etc...

 

San Jose Sharks

Current Cap Space: $10,258,333

Under Contract (16): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Ryan Donato (C, 25), Dylan Gambrell (C, 25), Rudolfs Balcers (F, 24)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (5): FULL LIST
Marcus Sorensen (F, 29), Patrick Marleau (F, 42)

Dead Cap (1): Noah Rod ($116,666)

Draft Picks: R1: #7, R3 #71, R4: #121, R5: #135, R5: #156, R6: #167, R7: #199

At first glance, this feels like a "ride it out" year in San Jose, where aging contracts that really can't be moved will simply need to be dealt with. The goaltender situation has questions also, and the Sharks would love Seattle to take the Martin Jones situation out of their hands if possible, or else a buyout could be on the table. Have we also seen the last of Patrick Marleau?

 

Pittsburgh Penguins

Current Cap Space: $3,256,795

Under Contract (19): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Zach Aston-Reese (C, 27), Mark Jankowski (C, 27), Theodor Blueger (C, 27)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Cody Ceci (D, 27), Evan Rodrigues (F, 28)

Dead Cap (1): Jack Johnson ($1,116,666)

Draft Picks: R2 #58, R5: #154, R7: #194

The Penguins are tight on cap space and low on draft picks heading into the summer. They'll need help just to get these few notable restricted free agents back, let alone a big defensive piece like Ceci. There are offensive pieces to be traded this offseason, and it seems inevitable at this point (Petterson, Zucker, etc...), and there will be legitimate conversations about Malkin's future on this roster as well. Bottom line, it's a business first offseason in Pittsburgh.

 

Philadelphia Flyers

Current Cap Space: $13,085,414

Under Contract (18): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Travis Sanheim (D, 25), Nolan Patrick (C, 23), Carter Hart (G, 23)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Brian Elliott (G, 36),

Dead Cap (0):

Draft Picks: R1: #14, R2 #46, R3: #78, R4: #110, R5: #158, R6: #174, R7: #206

Tough not to start with the goaltending situation here, as Carter Hart should be a relatively low-cost extension to increase his sample size, but Brian Elliot (who outplayed Hart at times), seems too past his prime to overpay for. Philly should be shopping for a #1 goalie this offseason. Sanheim is the most notable expiring here as he's slipped in terms of production and long term confidence in this system. A small extension to better define his role makes sense. The Flyers will be in the market for blue liners this offseason, as they gave up an East Division high 201 goals last year.

 

Ottawa Senators

Current Cap Space: $28,451,667

Under Contract (19): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (14): FULL LIST
Brady Tkachuk (F, 22), Drake Batherson (C, 23)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (5): FULL LIST
Ryan Dzingel (C, 29), Derek Stepan (C, 31)

Dead Cap (2): Bobby Ryan ($3,583,333), Dion Phaneuf ($354,167)

Draft Picks: R1: #10, R2 #39, R2: #42, R3: #74, R6: #170, R7: #202

Even though the offensive production has been far from elite, Tkachuk seems a no-brainer extension for 3-4 years. Ottawa forfeited a 2nd round pick to acquire Stepan, so it stands to reason they'll look to lock him up short term as well. Other than that, this is a mediocre roster with ample cap space to try and improve everywhere.

 

New York Rangers

Current Cap Space: $22,840,199

Under Contract (18): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (12): FULL LIST
Pavel Buchnevich (F, 26), Filip Chytil (F, 22), Igor Shesterkin (G, 25)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (4): FULL LIST
Brendan Smith (D, 32), Phillip di Giuseppe (F, 27)

Dead Cap (3): Henrik Lundqvist ($1,500,000), Kevin Shattenkirk ($1,433,333), Dan Girardi ($1,111,111)

Draft Picks: R1: #16, R3 #65, R3: #80, R4: #104, R4: #106, R4: #112, R5: #144, R6: #176, R7: #208

Priority number one here seems to extend Shesterkin, their goalie of the future, though arbitration may stand in the way. Breakout forward Buchnevich is also inline for a major payday, while it's possible many other expirings are let to walk to the market in exchange for an aggressive push at multiple centers. Buffalo's Jack Eichel appears to be largely on this team's radar via trade, but even he alone won't be enough to make New York legit contenders.

 

New York Islanders

Current Cap Space: $5,786,666

Under Contract (18): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Adam Pelech (D, 27), Anthony Beauvillier (F, 24), Ilya Sorokin (G, 26)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (10): FULL LIST
Casey Cizikas (C, 30), Kyle Palmieri (F, 30)

Dead Cap (0)

Draft Picks: R2: #60, R3 #93, R4: #125, R5: #157, R6: #189, R7: #221

The Islanders aren't being shy about their interest in retaining all of their notable free agents, but with just north of $5M in cap space to work with currently, that seems nearly impossible. So where can this roster flex a bit? Defense seems the early answer, as New York gave up just 128 goals against in the shortened 2020-21 season, by far the least in the East Division. Trading defense for offense could be a viable compromise this summer.

 

New Jersey Devils

Current Cap Space: $35,677,501

Under Contract (15): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (12): FULL LIST
Nicholas Merkley (F, 24)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Ryan Murray (D, 28), Nikita Gusev (F, 29)

Dead Cap (2): Cory Schneider ($2M), Ilya Kovalchuk ($250,000)

Draft Picks: R1: #4, R1: #29, R2: #61, R3 #68, R3: #75, R4: #100, R5: #129, R6: #164, R7: #203

The Devils are likely heading toward an offseason of trades, from the #4 pick, to plenty of players under contract currently. New Jersey has cap space, and minimal expiring contracts of concern, which means they can be overly aggressive in outside negotiations. Teams like Tampa, Calgary, Washington should be targets for this franchise as all will be seeking cap relief.

 

Nashville Predators

Current Cap Space: $22,858,588

Under Contract (15): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (15): FULL LIST
Eeli Tolvanen (F, 22), Dante Fabbro (D, 23), Juuse Saros (G, 26)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (10): FULL LIST
Mikael Granlund (C, 29), Erik Haula (C, 30), Pekka Rinne (G, 38)

Dead Cap (2): Kyle Turris ($2M), Steven Santini ($275,000)

Draft Picks: R1: #19, R2: #40, R2: #51, R3 #83, R4: #115, R4: #123, R5: #147, R6: #179

The focus will be on the 15 restricted free agents, and the course of action at goaltender, with franchise staple Pekka Rinne's future very much in question. It's possible Nashville opts to go extremely young in the upcoming season.

 

Montreal Canadiens

Current Cap Space: $14,671,191

Under Contract (15): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (10): FULL LIST
Jesperi Kotkaniemi (C, 21), Artturi Lehkonen (F, 26)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (13): FULL LIST
Tomas Tatar (F, 30), Phillip Danault (C, 28)

Dead Cap (1): Karl Alzner ($1,958,333)

Draft Picks: R1: #31, R2: #63, R2: #64, R3 #76, R3: #87, R4: #113, R4: #126, R4: #127, R5: #142, R6: #191, R7: #223

The cup runner-ups have immediate work to do with notable offensive pieces on expiring contracts. Kotkaniemi & Danault should demand pretty serious coin, while the Tatar experiment appears to be coming to an end in Montreal. It doesn't appear necessary for this team to do a whole lot else this offseason, though working the trade block with a ton of draft ammo could be fun.

 

Minnesota Wild

Current Cap Space: $15,931,410

Under Contract (16): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (6): FULL LIST
Kevin Fiala (F, 25)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (13): FULL LIST
Nick Bonino (C, 33), Marcus Johansson (C, 30),  Ian Cole (D, 32)

Dead Cap (0):

Draft Picks: R1: #22, R1: #26, R2: #54, R3 #86, R3: #90, R4: #118, R5: #150, R6: #182, R7: #214

The Wild finished third in the West Division, hold $16M of cap space, have a minute amount of expiring contracts, and possess 5 Top 90 draft picks this month. It all sounds great, however Minnesota will need to address a few young internal contracts this summer which could take on nearly $10M of that space without trying. Look for this team to be aggressive on the trade block over the next few weeks.

 

Los Angeles Kings

Current Cap Space: $14,690,412

Under Contract (21): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (10): FULL LIST
Trevor Moore (F, 26), Andreas Athanasiou (C, 27)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (3): FULL LIST
Troy Grosenick (G, 32)

Dead Cap (3): Dion Phaneuf ($1,062,500), Mike Richards ($900,000), Jeff Carter ($2,636,363)

Draft Picks: R1: #8, R2: #49, R3: #72, R3 #89, R4: #109, R5: #136, R6: #168

The Kings already made their splash move by acquiring Viktor Arvidsson this month, and should have no trouble bringing back their few expiring contracts with just under $15M of cap space to work with. The question remains though just how aggressive this team can be on the open market as they try to push toward playoff contention.

 

Florida Panthers

Current Cap Space: $13,127,957

Under Contract (20): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (13): FULL LIST
Anthony Duclair (F, 26), Sam Bennett (C, 25), Gustav Forsling (D, 25)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Alexander Wennberg (C, 27), Brandon Montour (D, 27)

Dead Cap (2): Scott Darling ($1,183,333), Roberto Luongo ($1,094,128)

Draft Picks: R1: #24, R2: #56, R4: #120, R5 #152, R6: #184, R7: 210

The Panthers finished second in the Central Division and the crux of their core players will be up for large extensions in the next 18-24 months, meaning their window of "value" is quickly closing. Extending Bennett & Forsling seem no brainers in this process, but bringing in new blood likely means a buyout or two as well (Yandle, Stralman).

 

Edmonton Oilers

Current Cap Space: $16,562,167

Under Contract (20): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Kailer Yamamoto (C, 23), Dominik Kahun (C, 26), Jujhar Khaira (F, 27)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (13): FULL LIST
Jujhar Khaira (D, 28), Tyson Barrie (D, 30), Mike Smith (G, 39)

Dead Cap (2): Andrej Sekera ($1.5M), Milan Lucic ($750,000)

Draft Picks: R1: #20, R4: #116, R6 #180, R6: #186, R7: #212

Edmonton finally figured a few things out this season, especially with ageless Mike Smith manning the net. Opting to bring him back may be the best move short term, and shouldn't break the bank. This team is full of offensive stars in their prime age range, so adding depth in all areas with the cap space available seems the right move. A buyout for James Neal should be on the table in the coming days to unlock even more room.

 

Detroit Red Wings

Current Cap Space: $48,150,277

Under Contract (10): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (13): FULL LIST
Filip Hronek (D, 23), Jakub Vrana (F, 25), Adam Erne (F, 26)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (19): FULL LIST
Luke Glendening (C, 32), Jonathan Bernier (G, 33)

Dead Cap (1): Justin Abdelkader ($2,305,556)

Draft Picks: R1: #6, R1: #23, R2: #38, R2: #48, R3: #70, R3: #94, R4: #102, R4: #128, R5: #134, R5: #138, R6: #166

Don't let the $48M of cap space fool you, this team has significant work to do. With only 10 NHL level players under contract, and a truckload of draft picks to boot, it stands to reason that the Red Wings could finally bottom out this offseason if they so choose. It's likely not the right time to take on major contracts in Detroit.

 

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Space: $14,253,000

Under Contract (18): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (10): FULL LIST
Miro Heiskanen (D, 22), Jason Dickinson (C, 27)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Jamie Oleksiak (D, 28), Andrew Cogliano (F, 34), Sami Vatanen (D, 30)

Dead Cap (1): Alexander Wennberg ($441,666)

Draft Picks: R1: #15, R2: #47, R3: #79, R4: #111, R5: #143, R6: #175, R7: #207

An extension for Heiskanen will be top billing for the Stars this summer, and it won't be cheap ($8Mish). Once that's in place, the process will focus on finding near minimum value signings to fill out the rest of this roster.

 

Columbus Blue Jackets

Current Cap Space: $23,861,639

Under Contract (20): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Patrik Laine (F, 23),

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (10): FULL LIST
Michael Del Zotto (D, 31), Zac Dalpe (C. 31)

Dead Cap (1): Alexander Wennberg ($441,666)

Draft Picks: R1: #5, R1: #25, R1: #32, R3: #69, R4: #101, R5: #132, R5: #133, R6: #165, R7: #197

The Blue Jackets have ample cap space and just Patrik Laine's bigtime extension to deal with this offseason. The first chip to fall this season appears to be trading D Seth Jones, who's entering a contract year in 2021-22. Columbus will be trying to build from the basement, but they have the cap and draft capital to make aggressive runs at major players this offseason.

 

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Space: $25,489,167

Under Contract (13): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Tyson Jost (C, 23), Cale Makar (D, 22), Conor Timmins (D, 23)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (15): FULL LIST
Gabriel Landeskog (F, 28), Brandon Saad (F, 28), Phillip Grubauer (G, 29)

Dead Cap (0)

Draft Picks: R1: #28, R3: #92, R7: #220

The Avalanche enter the offseason as one of the favorites for the 2021-22 Cup, and while a projected $25.5M of cap space seems healthy, with just 13 players allocated to the roster & Landeskog headed toward free agency, there's plenty of work to be done here. There won't be enough capital to bring back all 24 pending free agents, and the expansion draft will have its say with this roster as well. It's going to be a tall order just to get Landeskog, Grubauer, & Makar all back in the fold. This is a team to watch for in terms of trading some rights for draft picks in the coming weeks.

 

Chicago Blackhawks

Current Cap Space: $5,333,929

Under Contract (24): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (8): FULL LIST
Brandon Hagel (F, 23), Pius Suter (F, 25), Nikita Zadorov (D, 26)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Vincent Hinostroza (C, 27)

Dead Cap (1): Olli Maatta ($750,108)

Draft Picks: R1: #12, R2: #44, R2: #62, R4: #105, R4: #108, R6: #172, R7: #204, R7: #216

This is a young roster, heavy with players who can be moved up and down as needed, and with very few notable expiring contracts to deal with this offseason. The minimal cap space ($5.3M) will be offset by two notable players (Seabrook, Shaw) hitting the Long-Term Injured Reserve before the season, freeing up another $11M. With that said, this won't be a team shopping for the big boys this offseason. It's more about extending a few worthy RFAs, locking in Hinostroza (who is a clear chemistry fit), and finding some experienced veterans on near minimum contracts to fill in a few blanks. The biggest splash this summer will most likely come in the form of a trade, as longtime defenseman Duncan Keith seems to already have one foot out of the door.

 

Carolina Hurricanes

Current Cap Space: $29,432,667

Under Contract (12): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (9): FULL LIST
Andrei Svechnikov (F, 21), Warren Foegele (F, 25), Alex Nedeljkovic (G, 25)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (17): FULL LIST
Dougie Hamilton (D, 28), Cedric Paquette (C, 28)

Dead Cap (0):

Draft Picks: R1: #27, R2: #59, R3: #91, R4: #123, R6: #187, R7: #200, R7: #209, R7: #219

How the Hurricanes handle this offseason will be one of the more interesting watches, as they could essentially resign some of their youth, toss in one or two notable free agent adds, and try to contend in the East again. It's likely things get a little more complicated though, with rumors of a sign and trade for Dougie Hamilton at the forefront of the rumor mill. Svechnikov's rookie extension will be priority number one.

 

Calgary Flames

Current Cap Space: $14,525,000

Under Contract (12): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (13): FULL LIST
Dillon Dube (C, 23), Juuso Valimaki (D, 22)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (11): FULL LIST
Derek Ryan (C, 34)

Dead Cap (1): Troy Brouwer ($1.5M)

Draft Picks: R1: #13, R2: #45, R3: #77, R3: #84, R5: #141, R6: #173 R7: #205

The Flames have almost $67M allocated to just 13 NHL players right now, giving them a lot to do with just $14.5M of space. There's probably a trade being lined up for the coming weeks, which will allow Calgary to be a little more active come free agency.

 

Buffalo Sabres

Current Cap Space: $34,150,000

Under Contract (12): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (10): FULL LIST
Sam Reinhart (C, 25), Rasmus Dahlin (D, 21), Casey Mittelstadt (C, 22), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (G, 22)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (12): FULL LIST
Jake McCabe (D, 27), Linus Ullmark (G, 28)

Dead Cap (1): Cody Hodgson ($791,667)

Draft Picks: R1: #1, R2: #33, R2: #53, R3: #84, R5: #141, R6: #173 R7: #205

With medical issues and trade rumors surrounding Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart's future in question, and a half dozen free agents in need of new contracts, the view isn't exactly picturesque from Sabresland. Buffalo has needs everywhere, but addressing the goaltender situation might be priority number one, especially if another rebuild is in front of them.

 

Boston Bruins

Current Cap Space: $30,256,612

Under Contract (17): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Nicholas Ritchie (F, 25)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (12): FULL LIST
Taylor Hall (F, 29), David Krejci (C, 35), Tuukka Rask (G, 34), Mike Reilly (D, 28)

Dead Cap (0):

Draft Picks: R1: #21, R3: #85, R4: #117, R5: #149, R6: #181 R7: #213, R7: #217

The Bruins are in a position of power this offseason, as a fringe contending team, with free agents who want to stay, and ample cap space to keep them. It would be a surprise if Taylor Hall and David Krejci aren't back with the B's, while the situaton with Tuukka Rask may be a bit more complicated. Rask is set to miss a big chunk of next season after hip surgery, so a paycut is already in order, but do they replace him from within, or via the open market?

 

Arizona Coyotes

Current Cap Space: $31,411,383

Under Contract (12): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (12): FULL LIST
Conor Garland (F, 25), Adin Hill (G, 25)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (13): FULL LIST
Antti Raanta (G, 32),  Alex Goligoski (D, 36), Michael Bunting (F, 26)

Dead Cap (1): Michael Grabner ($1,258,333)

Draft Picks: R2: #37, R2: #43, R4: #107, R4: #122, R5: #139, R6: #171

The Coyotes have a defense and goalie problem, as about 85% of those units are on some sort of expiring contract this offseason. Arizona took a few steps forward this season, nearly finding themselves at the .500 mark, so continuing to build this team carefully is important this offseason. Though part of that process may come with sending Oliver Ekman-Larsson's massive contract out of town, a move that won't pull back elite assets, but will free up more room to grow.

 

Anaheim Ducks

Current Cap Space: $22,555,000

Under Contract (16): FULL ROSTER

Potential Restricted Free Agents (7): FULL LIST
Maxime Comtois (F, 22)

Potential Unrestricted Free Agents (11): FULL LIST
Ryan Getzlaf (C, 36)

Dead Cap (1): Corey Perry ($2M)

Draft Picks: R1: #3, R2: #34, R3: #66, R4: #98, R5: #130, R5: #148, R6: #162

The Ducks had a miserable season, and wound up with the #3 pick for their efforts. Are they all in on trying to go worst to first? They have the cap space to at least make a run at it, but they'll have decisions to make on players like Getzlaf and Backes, whos better days are long gone. Taking on other team's "problems" could be their best move here.

 

Michael GinnittiJuly 08, 2021

The Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers saga refuses to go away, so we’ll take one final stab at attempting to solve this dilemma, this time via a contract restructure. It’s been said by very smart people that “money is the answer to all problems”, and “deadlines spur actions”, so let’s assume that the closer we get to training camp, the more likely it becomes that the Packers offer an aggressive cash flow restructure to try to lure their future Hall of Fame quarterback back into the facilities. Here’s a look at what that may look like:


37-Year-Old Quarterback Pay

I recently tweeted out a list of notable QBs who played at the age of 37, and their respective compensation during that season. That list was led by Ben Roethlisberger, who scored $40M on a restructure with the Steelers back in 2019. The average team cash payroll that year was $194,600,000, meaning Ben scored just north of 20% of that.

The major difference? Ben Roethlisberger was entering the final year of his contract with the Steelers when they agreed to a restructure. Aaron Rodgers has three years left on his contract, which is generally a no discussion zone for starting over (as Xavien Howard is finding out).

The only recent precedent for pulling future money up in a contract that’s three years from expiring is Julio Jones, who held out the spring of 2018 for a new contract, then agreed to a compromised restructure that saw $2M of this 2019 salary converted to an immediate signing bonus. It’s probably safe to assume that won’t get this situation fixed.

When evaluating Aaron Rodgers as if he were in position for a new contract, our projection tool calculates a near $42M figure. We’ll use this as our ceiling for this restructure.

 

The Packers’ Thought Process

If the plan is (and maybe has been) to keep Rodgers in the fold through 2021, then trade him and subsequently hand the keys to Jordan Love, then this contract restructure can be treated as a 1 year deal - except it isn’t.

There are two things to keep in mind here:

  • Cash flow. The “sell” to Rodgers will be frontloading a proper amount of cash into the 2021 season, which currently stands at $22M.

  • 2022 Dead Cap. Currently speaking, the Packers would take on a $17.2M dead cap hit to trade Rodgers next March, a feasible number. Any new signing bonus will add to this figure, so there’s a bit of a balancing act to be performed here.

So the plan here now is to pull $42M cash into the 2021 season, while still making him a tradable entity next March, both from the Packers and a new team’s perspective.

 

Current Contract

The current contract is laid out as such, with $22M built into this season, and $25M+ into each of the next two. For our restructure, we’ll chop off the 2023 year, and pull the $25M base salary from it up into a signing bonus, paid out in 2021.

 

Restructured Contract

We’ll also tack on 3 void years to the new contract to allow this signing bonus to prorate over a maximum term for cap purposes. Here’s how things look with these changes in place.

The 2021 season now contains $42M cash, including that new signing bonus, as well as almost $1M of cap space for the upcoming season.

I’ve split up the base salary in 2022 into a corresponding roster bonus that will pay out in early March 2022. This is a move for Rodgers, to ensure that he’s not kept on the Packers’ roster until June 2nd before being traded for dead cap purposes.

 

Trading Aaron Rodgers

Once Rodgers is traded next March, the Packers will take on a $37.2M dead cap hit for the 2022 season, $3.4M more than Carson Wentz’ hit to the Eagles this year, which currently stands as the most in NFL history.

The receiving team in the trade will acquire Rodgers at 1 year, $25.5M, with a $15M roster bonus set to be paid just days after his acquisition, meaning a restructured contract with the new team is very likely (another win for Rodgers). If Rodgers is traded to a team he doesn’t particularly care for, he simply plays out the one year term, and hits free agency thereafter.

 

Concluding Thoughts

This is certainly not an ideal situation for the Green Bay Packers, both as a contending football team and in terms of business. It should also be noted that Aaron Rodgers has in no way publicly demanded a new contract, nor has he stated that he will or will not play football in 2021.

Is a $37M dead cap hit tenable for the Packers in 2022?
It’s not great, but it’s not set in stone either. If the Packers feel they can take on more cap in 2021, then removing the void years or keeping more of the $42M as base salary instead of bonus would allow them to eat more cap today, and less next season.

Will Davante Adams extend his contract knowing Aaron Rodgers will be one and done?
This is a fascinating aside to the Rodgers drama. Adams is due for a top flight WR contract, upwards of $25M a year. If the Packers offer it, it’ll be hard for Adams to say no, even if it leads to him demanding a trade in 18 months. But it’s also plausible that he plays out his current contract, and lets himself hit free agency, offering him endless options - including linking back up with Rodgers.

Michael GinnittiJuly 06, 2021

Phoenix Suns

Total Cap Allocations: $127M (21st)
Total Cash Allocations: $121M (20th)

 

Top Earners

Player 2020-21 Salary Career Earnings Contract Status
Chris Paul (PG, 35) $41,358,814 $299,909,419 $44.2M player option in 2021-22
Devin Booker (SG, 24) $29,467,800 $65,032,653 3 years, $101.5M remaining
Jae Crowder (SF, 31) $9,258,000 $46,074,135 2 years, $20M remaining
E’Twaun Moore (SG, 32) $2,331,593 $40,162,398 UFA
Langston Galloway (SG, 29) $2,028,594 $28,941,768 UFA

 

Extension Candidates

Chris Paul
The internets claim Paul will likely opt out of his $44.2M player option next year in lieu of a multi-year extension to finish off his career in Phoenix. Paul carries a 3 year, $118M valuation in our system.

Deandre Ayton
The #1 overall selection from 2018 becomes extension-eligible after this season, with a 5 year, $168M max contract likely in his sights. Ayton’s overall numbers slipped a bit this year, but his efficiency took major steps forward, a theme for the Suns in 2020-21.

Cameron Payne
Every 36 year old point guard needs a viable backup plan, and Payne has proved to be more than adequate in that role. Delon Wright’s 3 year, $28M deal in Sacramento seems a good fit here.

2021-22 Outlook

The Suns will be operating over cap, and will be struggling to stay under the tax threshold with extensions for Paul and Payne likely coming. They’re set to pick #29, and will likely use their Non-Tax Exception to add a piece to the puzzle. VIEW MORE

 

 

Milwaukee Bucks

Total Cap Allocations: $132M (9th)
Total Cash Allocations: $135M (6th)

Top Earners

Player 2020-21 Salary Career Earnings Contract Status
Jrue Holiday (PG, 31) $25,876,111 $152,488,072 4 years, $135M remaining
Brook Lopez (C, 33) $12,697,675 $144,840,372 2 years, $27.2M remaining
Khris Middleton (SF, 29) $33,051,724 $120,920,176 3 years, $113M remaining
Giannis Antetokounmpo (PF, 26) $27,528,088 $106,999,970 5 years, $228M remaining
Jeff Teague (PG, 33) $3372826 $98,540,766 UFA

 

Extension Candidates

P.J. Tucker
It’s always difficult to value a player who operates mostly on “intangibles'', and at 36, Tucker is mostly that. His statistical production is all but diminished, but there’s still a strong case to resign here. Our valuation says 1 year, $5M should get it done.

Bobby Portis
Portis holds a $3.8M player option that he’s certain to decline, which could put him in a decent spot come free agency. If the Bucks see him as a possible replacement for PJ Tucker, a multi-year extension could be on the table here. Portis holds a 3 year, $32M valuation in our system.

Jeff Teague
Teague’s minutes diminished and thus his production did as well - but his efficiency, especially behind the 3-point line, went up in almost all facets. He holds value in a depth position, and will likely be in Milwaukee’s plans for the next few seasons. He holds a 2 year, $15M valuation.

 

2021-22 Outlook

The Bucks will be operating well over cap, but are already $12M over the luxury tax threshold. This figure will only get worse should the above extensions kick in, and it leaves Milwaukee with the smaller $5.9M exception to work with as well. The Bucks will draft #31 overall. VIEW MORE

Michael GinnittiJuly 05, 2021

Los Angeles Dodgers ($249M)

53-31, 2nd in the NL West
The Dodgers sit a half game out of the West, behind the NL surprise San Francisco Giants, who continue to fend off runs from LA and San Diego. A major injury to pending free agent SS Corey Seagar is easily the biggest cause for concern down the stretch, but LA seems to have enough firepower to stick near the top of the league.

 

New York Yankees ($201M)

42-41, 4th in the AL East
Not only are the Yankees not going to win 100 games, but 80 is now in question based on a midseason outlook. The bombers aren’t bombing, and seem resistant to small ball whenever that trickles into their game. The starting pitching has been injured and unimpressive, and Aroldis Chapman is far from superhuman all of a sudden. Changes are coming.

 

New York Mets ($196M)

43-37, 1st in the NL East
Despite a rash of injuries across the roster, the Mets have hung onto a consistent lead in the NL East, holding off runs from Washington, Philly, & Atlanta at various times. This is set to be a legitimate 4-team battle through the dog days, but the Mets are just now starting to get healthier, which could mean good things for that other NY team. Grabbing an arm at the deadline seems to make sense.

 

Houston Astros ($192M)

52-33, 1st in the AL West
This was the year they were supposed to drop off into reality. Instead, they’ve soared past a very good Athletics team, holding a comfortable division lead at the midway point, all with two of their starter pitchers, and Alex Bregman on the shelf for most of it. A late summer return for the latter could make these team even more dangerous down the stretch.

 

Philadelphia Phillies ($183M)

39-42, 4th in the NL East
Philly just can’t seem to find their stride on a consistent basis, and appear destined to be a .500 team yet again. There’s an awful lot of firepower in this lineup though, so a few hot stretches through the summer could keep this team afloat, despite obvious deficiencies in the rotation and bullpen.

 

Notable Notes

  • 4 of the 10 lowest spending teams have a winning percentage north of .500, led by the Brewers, who carry a 51-34 record (1st in NL Central), despite the 21st highest payroll.
  • After a miserable 2019-20, and the controversial exit of Mookie Betts, the Boston Red Sox hold a 4.5 game lead in the AL East despite the 7th highest payroll ($177M). It’s the lowest they’ve ranked in payroll for over a decade.
  • The 1st place White Sox carry the 15th highest payroll in baseball, putting them in the sweet spot of balance + success. They’re a team to watch both at the trade deadline, and in the postseason.
  • The Indians traded Mike Clevinger & Francisco Lindor, then lost ace Shane Bieber to injury, & still find themselves 3 games over .500 at the deadline. It’s likely not sustainable, but it’s notable.
  • After a good two month run at the top of the NL Central, the Cubs have fallen back down to earth, now 8.5 games out of the lead. Their $155M payroll is good enough for 11th, but with a handful of star players set to become free agents, Chicago may be open for business this month.

 

Related Links:View all 30 2021 MLB Payrolls

Michael GinnittiJuly 01, 2021

The 2021 All-Star Game starting lineups have officially been announced, and as we do annually, we’ll take a look at how the rosters look from a financial perspective.

 

National League

(Player, Average Salary, Free Agent Year)

C: Buster Posey (SF, 34), $19.8M, 2023
1B: Freddie Freeman (ATL, 31),  $16.8M, 2022
2B: Adam Frazier (PIT, 29), $4.3M, 2023
SS: Fernando Tatis, Jr. (SD, 22), $24.2M, 2035
3B: Nolan Arenado (STL, 30) $32.5M, 2028
OF: Ronald Acuna, Jr. (ATL, 23), $12.5M, 2029
OF: Nick Castellanos (CIN, 29), $16M, 2025
OF: Jesse Winker (CIN, 27), $3.15M, 2024

American League

(Player, Average Salary, Free Agent Year)

C: Salvador Perez (KC, 31) $20.5M, 2027
1B: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (TOR, 22), $605k, 2026
2B: Marcus Semien (TOR, 30), $18M, 2022
SS: Xander Bogaerts (BOS, 28), $20M, 2027
3B: Rafael Devers (BOS, 24), $4.5M, 2024
DH: Shohei Ohtani (LAA, 26), $4.25M, 2024
OF: Aaron Judge (NYY, 29), $10.1M, 2023
OF: Mike Trout (LAA, 29), $35.5M, 2031
OF: Teoscar Hernandez (TOR, 28), $4.3M, 2024

Michael GinnittiJuly 01, 2021

It’s no secret that Baker Mayfield & the Cleveland Browns don’t appear close to reaching a contract extension, but which side is holding up the process? The answer very well may be both.

The former #1 overall selection in 2018 posted a strong rookie campaign, but a forgettable year two in Cleveland, putting a huge monkey on his back heading into the 2020 season. He responded admirably, posting 26 TDs, 8 INTs, while completing 63% of his passes, despite a career low 3,560 yards. More importantly the 11-5 Browns found the postseason, & officially dug themselves out of regular season purgatory.

 

Statistically Speaking

When comparing quarterback numbers from 2018-2020 (min. 25 starts), Baker ranks as follows:

Passer Rating (89.1): 23/28
Yards/Game (241.6): 18/28
Pass TDs (75): 10/28
Interceptions (43): T2/28
Completion % (61.8): 25/28

Provided by Stathead

Not great, but also not exactly the whole story. It’s easy to use the law of averages here and claim that the full sample size for Baker is well below average. But 2018 was good, and 2020 was great. 2019 was so bad, that it’s stinking up the whole thought process. So which Baker Mayfield should the Browns be considering when preparing to discuss his long term status with the team? The correct answer should probably be: TBD.

 

The Browns’ Rebuild

The fact of the matter here is that the Browns have done an excellent job building up this roster around Baker, including a massive offensive line overhaul, an influx for defensive pass rushers, and this year, upgrades to their secondary. Cleveland has used all avenues possible to rebuild this team, and it’s shown both on the field, and within their financial breakdowns. At the time of this piece, the Browns carry the fourth most cap space in the league.So is Baker Mayfield’s recent success more a product of the players around him, or a result of him settling into the league, this team, and his role as a franchise QB? The correct answer should probably be: TBD.

 

Baker’s Financial Future

As shown below, Baker holds a guaranteed $5.1M in 2021, + a fully guaranteed $18.8M 5th year option for 2022 that has already been exercised.

This option is nearly $5M less than that of Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, as Mayfield hasn’t been selected to a Pro Bowl (yes, that’s how much power that arbitrary game now has financially). So everything’s fine, right? Baker can make his $24M over the next two years while the Browns can get a more thorough look at what kind of quarterback he’s really settling into during that span.

Sure, but the answer to the often asked question, “Why are teams constantly paying their superstars as soon as possible rather than waiting until a contract expires?” is: They’re trying to grab value before other players at a similar position or situation further the market. This is especially true at the quarterback position, where Patrick Mahomes has already broken through the ceiling, and Allen/Jackson will soon surpass Dak Prescott & Deshaun Watson’s $40M+ mark, with $100M fully guaranteed extremely likely.

 

But is Baker Mayfield really in line for the same contract as Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson?

As it currently stands, no, but if Baker builds on his 2020 success both individually and in terms of winning (Browns currently hold the 7th best Super Bowl odds), any thoughts of a contract in the $35M per year range can be thrown out the window. If a realistic valuation for Baker Mayfield includes $70M guaranteed today (6th among active QBs), a successful 2021 campaign can increase that value to $95M+ (Dak Prescott’s current league high).

 

A Conversative Browns Approach

If the Browns believe the seasonal inconsistency isn’t a fluke, rather a trend, then the conversation likely changes completely. No longer should the Browns be concerned about a massive increase in what could be, because their internal thinking will never include that long-term offer. In my personal opinion, Baker Mayfield’s worst case scenario over the next 4 seasons is to fall into a Kirk Cousins’ lane. In this scenario, Baker plays out his rookie contract, earning another $24M for his efforts, after which Cleveland slaps a franchise tag on him in 2023 which could be in the $32M range based on cap projections. This gets Baker to $56M earned, offering Cleveland an out as needed. A second franchise tag for Mayfield then comes in at around $39M, which brings us to $95M, the exact amount referenced above currently attached to Dak Prescott as the most guaranteed money at signing in NFL history.

Will Baker and his camp like this route? Most likely not, but Dak Prescott proved that even the occurrence of injury during this pay-as-you-go process won’t stop an above average quarterback from earning his payday. The rookie contract + two franchise tag plan means high cap hits for those two back years, but the NFL should see an immense jump in league salary cap come 2023, giving the Browns breathing room to handle such a process. Should this play out as proposed, Baker Mayfield would see approximately $123M over his first 7 seasons, with a chance to further his career at age 29.

 

Mocking a Traditional Contract Extension for Baker Mayfield

If the Browns would prefer to stick to a traditional extension, one could be negotiated as early as the middle of the upcoming season, as Browns beat Mary Kay Cabot has mentioned often. It’s possible Cleveland simply wants a taste of 2021 Baker to ensure the player they saw in 2020 is the real deal, after which a long-term contract negotiation could come into play.

Mayfield carries a $35.2M valuation in our system at the time of this piece, but as noted above, this will increase when Josh Allen and/or Lamar Jackson lock in a new deal. Our projection tool places a 4 year, $141M extension on the table, $70M fully guaranteed at signing. We’ll round things up for the most part when building out a mock contract extension here for Baker Mayfield. New Years: 4

New Money: $144M
Signing Bonus: $25M
Guaranteed at Sign: $68M
Potential Guarantee: $108M
Total Contract: 6 yrs, $168M

 

Michael GinnittiJune 28, 2021

Arizona Cardinals

J.J. Watt (DT, 32)
The Cardinals struck early, plucking Watt off the street after he was granted a release from Houston in Mid-February. Watt won’t be the most dominant player on the field most weeks, but he’ll bring plenty of clout to a defense that is looking to keep up with a young, explosive offense in Arizona.

 

Atlanta Falcons

Julio Jones (WR, 32)This one shouldn’t have surprised Spotrac listeners too much, as the writing was on the wall immediately after 2020. Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, & newly drafted Kyle Pitts will be Matt Ryan’s lead arsenal going forward. 

 

Baltimore Ravens

Sammy Watkins (WR, 28)
With limited capital to work with, the Ravens couldn’t missed out on a few of the bigger WR fish this offseason, but still landed a potential upgrade in Watkins, who brings talent, and playoff experience from LAR/KC to Lamar’s offense. 

 

Buffalo Bills

Extending Their Own
LB Matt Milano, OT Daryl Williams, OG Jon Feliciano, CB Levi Wallace all remain in the fold, while their most important in-house extension is still pending - QB Josh Allen. WR Emmanuel Sanders should be a value upgrade as a WR2/WR3 piece as well.

 

Carolina Panthers

Sam Darnold (QB, 24)
At $23M over the next two seasons, Carolina essentially gets a do-over on the Bridgewater experience with a younger, different style QB. There’s a good chance that a change of scenery and scheme bring out the best in the former #3 overall.

 

Chicago Bears

Allen Robinson (WR, 27)
There were plenty around the game (myself included), who thought there was no chance Allen Robinson would stick with this franchise past 2020, even if a healthy franchise tag was offered. But Robinson signed the tag, and will give Andy Dalton/Justin Fields a legit WR1 weapon to rely on for the season.

 

Cincinnati Bengals

Highly Drafted Offensive Weapons
The Bengals’ “fantasy” lineup now contains 6 players who were drafted in the first two rounds. Joe Burrow/Ja’Marr Chase in the first, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, and Drew Sample in the second. If this core gels, it could mean big things from a scoring standpoint over the next 4-5 seasons.

 

Cleveland Browns

John Johnson (S, 25), Troy Hill (CB, 29)
Anytime you can add two highly regarded players from the Rams defense, things are going well for you. Toss in a late addition of Jadeveon Clowney, and this already solid Browns D should be geared up for big things in 2021. 

 

Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott (QB, 27)
We didn’t learn much from the NFC East last year, but we all found out just how important Dak Prescott is to the Dallas Cowboys. Dak is back, he’s well-paid, and his offensive weapons are nothing short of outstanding heading into 2021. Did the defense improve enough, and is there enough left in the O-Line to make it all work?

 

Denver Broncos

The Secondary
With Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes in the division, the Broncos have loaded up on defensive backs the past two offseasons, extending Justin Simmons, adding Ronald Darby & Kyle Fuller via free agency, bringing back Kareem Jackson, and drafting Patrick Surtain II. Will they also acquire a QB that will put other defensive backs on their heels in 2021?

 

Detroit Lions

Jared Goff (QB, 26)
Goff fell out of favor rather quickly despite a ton of team success with the Rams. Will his style translate better elsewhere? The Lions don’t exactly boast the best passing game weapons in the league right now, so the odds are likely stacked against him.

 

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones (RB, 26)
To me, extending Jones to an at-value contract was a warning shot that the Packers believe they have the right team to push this thing to the top. There are very few reasons to pay a 26 year old running back these days, but pushing the chips all in is one. Did they foresee a massive PR disaster for the next 10-12 months at the QB position? Likely not. But common logic says the restless will calm down come football time, and this roster will return to legit NFC contender standing.

 

Houston Texans

Tyrod Taylor (QB, 31), Davis Mills (QB, 22)
Sure, Houston could just be covering their bases for the upcoming season with the understanding that it’s most likely Deshaun Watson will be sent to the commissioner’s exempt list and/or suspended. But the selection of Mills also tells me there’s a very realistic possibility that once the dust settles a bit, Houston will indeed seek out and grant Watson the trade demand he pushed on them just a few months ago. The Dolphins are patiently waiting.

 

Indianapolis Colts

Carson Wentz (QB, 28)
Unlike Goff, Wentz enters a team where he’s familiar with the coaching, and will be offered a solid group of pass catchers to toss to. But the retirement of Anthony Castonzo seems a huge red flag for the Colts and Wentz’s immediate success.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence (QB, 21)
The Jaguars out-tanked the Jets for the rights to select Lawrence, and while health remains an issue this offseason, all signs point to an exciting uptick for the Jaguars. Urban Meyer and Co. have held onto and added a lot of speed and versatility in terms of weapons around him - but is the O-Line deep and strong enough to protect a young QB?

 

Kansas City Chiefs

Joe Thuney (OG, 28, Kyle Long (OG, 32), Orlando Brown Jr. (OT, 25)
Quite a response to what was an obvious deficiency in KC’s Super Bowl repeat bid last season. Mahomes loses a weapon in Sammy Watkins, and there are some contractual question marks on the defensive side of the ball (Frank Clark, Tyrann Mathieu), but this is a rock solid AFC team as per usual on paper.

 

Las Vegas Raiders

Kenyan Drake (RB, 27)
This was one of those “huh??” signings at first sight, but once the dust settled (and the Raiders chopped off about $15M from their O-Line), it’s understandable to see them acquire a proven player who can catch a few passes, but also greatly improve their red zone production, without sacrificing Josh Jacobs 100% of the snaps. The Raiders offensive was sneaky good last year, and there’s reason to believe they’ll be better. 

 

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert’s New Offensive Line
Every season this team on paper gets me believing that their odds in Vegas are crazy off. Then 11 preseason injuries later, I’m feeding my kids bread and water for a few weeks. The difference this year? The notable upgrades all came on the offensive line, and the guy they’re protecting is trending toward a generational talent level. Slater, Aboushi, Linsley, Feiler, Bulaga could finally be the piece to this puzzle that pushes LAC forward. 

 

Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford (QB, 33)
It was the right time for a change, and there aren’t many better landing spots than a Sean McVay led Rams offense for Stafford. Will he hit the ground running with a team ready to win? Tom Brady seems to think that’s possible. Conventional thinking says it usually takes a year to gel and find the rhythms, but this will be a highly bet on team heading into 2021. 

 

Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle (WR, 22)
The Alabama connection QB/WR should have real value, & when tossing in a 1 year flier on Will Fuller, the Dolphins’ passing game is geared to take that next step - assuming Tua has the capacity to take them there. The QB situation in Miami could be on high alert in the coming months, assuming Deshaun Watson’s status changes in Houston.

 

Minnesota Vikings

Dalvin Tomlinson (DT, 27)
The Vikings made it a point to address the defensive side of the ball via free agency, while shoring up offensive line depth via the draft. A third round QB selection also adds a new wrinkle for next offseason. Tomlinson outplayed his ability to be re-signed to the Giants, and it’ll be the Vikings’ gain. 

 

New England Patriots

Jonnu Smith (TE, 25), Hunter Henry (TE, 26)
The QB situation remains very much fluid in New England, but nothing feels more stable and nostalgic than the return of a two tight end set offense with two prominent offensive weapons in those roles. Will the Patriots wildly uncommon spending spree this offseason translate to a contending team?

 

New Orleans Saints

Defensive Losses
We knew the cap crunch was going to be tough on New Orleans, and from a roster standpoint, the defensive side of the ball took the most hits. Gone are DE Trey Hendrickson (CIN), CB Janoris Jenkins (TEN), DT Sheldon Rankins (NYJ), & LB Alex Anzalone (DET), while WR Emmanuel Sanders is the notable loss on that side of the ball. Can a rebuilt defense plus a brand new starting QB for the first time in 16 years keep the Saints afloat in contention?

 

New York Giants

Kenny Golladay (WR, 27)
In an offseason where a plethora of WR options via free agency and the draft seemingly dropped the values to acquire one, the Giants zagged and went all in on Golladay with $40M guaranteed over the next two and a half years. It’s a statement signing to see what they have in QB Daniel Jones - barring Golladay can stay on the field to support him.

 

New York Jets

Zach Wilson (QB, 21)
Wilson is young and talented, but he’ll forever be the guy taken after Trevor Lawrence. Did the Jets screw the pooch by not losing enough games in 2020? Only time will tell, but they’re saying all the right things about their new QB1, and there’s a halfway decent set of pass catchers and a legitimate left tackle already on this roster to give him a fighting chance out of the gate.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

Turnover
You’ll find changs and turnover seemingly everywhere you look on this roster - from the coach to the QB to the WR to the OL to the DL to the secondary (and eventually to the TE position). Philly’s pre-draft trade with Miami might easily be the best thing they do in 2021, as it proved their identified who/what they are this year, and are acquiring assets to follow a year of “taking it on the chin” from a dead cap, and roster growth standpoint. With that said, Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Miles Sanders, and a few legitimate edge rushers should still raise some hell in the NFC East.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger (QB, 39)
Oh to be a fly in the wall of the Steelers’ front office this past winter, trying to decide if ripping the band-aids off and starting fresh in many regards was the proper way forward, or if patching things back together and hoping Mike Tomlin’s magic wand can do the trick one more time was worth the investment. Big Ben’s paycut & restructured contract answered that question in early March, and a surprise return from JuJu Smith-Schuster added even more juice to this team’s defiance to go downward. Massive cap casualties on the O-Line & Defensive side of the ball could tell the true story down the stretch though.

 

San Francisco 49ers

Trent Williams (OT, 33)
After the big pre-draft trade to go up and get their next QB, ensuring his blind spot was secured for the coming years had to be priority number two. San Fran acquired Williams for a 3rd & 5th round pick last year, then paid him $12.5M as a trial run through the 2020 season. That turned into $55M guaranteed over the next three seasons, and what they hope will be a smooth transition from Jimmy G to Trey Lance.

 

Seattle Seahawks

Chris Carson (RB, 27)
See Aaron Jones above. Extending the RB who was allowed to hit free agency signals one thing: We’re all in. Toss in a 2nd round selection of WR D’Wayne Eskridge, and a once disgruntled Russell Wilson at least has a good set of toys to play with - though it remains to be seen if he’ll have enough time in the pocket to see them.

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The All-22

No Super Bowl winner has ever returned all 22 starters in the following season: Until Now. The Buccaneers piggy-backed off of a down league salary cap year to bring all their major pieces back on slightly team-friendly costs, with extremely team-friendly structure. Free Agent Signings | Offseason Extensions

 

Tennessee Titans

Julio Jones (WR, 33)
Tennessee was always on the short list of teams that would be willing to pay the price for Julio, and with an offseason of signings and draft picks focused directly on the defensive side of the ball (rightfully so), this was the right time to splash. Julio steps in for the departing Corey Davis, and now pairs up with A.J. Brown as one of the better 1-2 duos in all of football.

 

Washington Football Team

Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, 38)
I don’t think there’s enough praise being given to the WFT for this move, despite the fact that there were so many other QBs on the move this offseason one way or another. This Washington team has a lot of things going right for them, and were able to add a savvy WR in Curtis Samuel to up their efficient passing game. After years of overpaying at the QB position with very little return, the franchise decided to slow play this move, bringing in an experienced game manager who can still fling the ball downfield to open receivers - something this offense should have plenty of in 2021.

Keith SmithJune 26, 2021

NBA players signed to minimum contracts are usually defined into one of three groups:

  • Rookies or young players who are hoping to make a team
  • Veteran players who are hoping to play a role a title contender
  • Veteran players who receive a buyout and catch on late in the season with a contender

The first group regularly sees players play themselves off of a minimum contract. This offseason alone, that group includes Bruce Brown Jr., Devonte’ Graham, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson and Gary Trent Jr. All of these players are going to get more than the minimum and some are going to get considerably more.

The last group is a matter of circumstance. For all of Andre Drummond’s foibles as a player, he’s not really someone who will play on a minimum contract for very long. After his buyout from the Cleveland Cavaliers, Drummond joined the Lakers for a shot at a ring. This summer, Drummond will make far more than the minimum, even if it means taking a role with a lesser team. Blake Griffin is another good example. If he wants to leave the Nets for more than the minimum, he’s shown he’s still got the game to earn more.

It’s the middle group where players often get stuck, sometimes forever. Around the NBA there is a thought that “Once a minimum player, always a minimum player” when it comes to veterans.

Fair or unfair, that’s how life works in the NBA. The vast majority of successful teams are built around one to three players on max contracts, a handful signed to a mid-tier contract via the Mid-Level Exception, a few Rookie Scale players and then a handful of players that were signed via the Minimum Exception. Or the bench is rounded out with young players who the team used part of an exception to sign to a three or four-year minimum contract (Minimum Exception deals are limited to two seasons in length).

This season several players stuck in that “minimum player” category seem to have played themselves out of that designation. Here’s a list of players who might be looking at a more lucrative contract in 2021-22, based on their play this year.

 

Reggie Jackson (PG, LAC)

Jackson turned in one of his better seasons while toiling away on the minimum for the Los Angeles Clippers. He averaged 10.7 points per game, while shooting 45% from the field and 43% from behind the arc. In the postseason, Jackson has been even better. He’s averaged 17.6 points on 51% shooting overall and 42% from behind the arc. With several teams looking at point guard openings this summer, Jackson has earned himself at least a large chunk of the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception from someone.

 

Nicolas Batum (SF, LAC)

Let’s stick with Clippers vets for a minute. Batum looked finished in 2019-20 with the Charlotte Hornets. He barely played, shot poorly and it looked like his NBA career was over. The Clippers added Batum for the minimum and he became a key rotation player for them. He stayed healthy all season and turned in 8.1 points (on some of the best shooting of his career) and 4.7 rebounds in 27.4 minutes per game. He’s also shown the ability to play some small ball five, which adds to his value. It’s unclear if Batum will leave LA or not. If he stays, he probably stays on the minimum. If he wants to cash in elsewhere, he could get $4 or $5 million from a title contender for a bench role.

 

Cameron Payne (PG, PHX)

Going head-to-head with the Clippers is Payne, who has finally put it all together in his sixth season. The Phoenix Suns did well to add Payne on a two-year, minimum contract before the bubble last season. He played well at Walt Disney World and that’s carried over to this year. He’s been a solid backup to Chris Paul and stepped up while Paul was out to start the Western Conference Finals. Payne should get a portion of the MLE from a good team to be a high-end backup point guard that can start when necessary.

 

Torrey Craig (SF, PHX)

Completing our quartet of Western Conference finalists on the minimum is Craig. He’s a defense-first wing who easily fits on any good team. The Milwaukee Bucks probably should have kept him, but the Suns stole him on the cheap when the Bucks needed to clear a roster spot. Craig’s defense alone should earn him a chunk of the MLE from someone, but his offense is probably better than you think too.

 

Solomon Hill (SF, ATL)

Hill belongs in the same camp as Batum, even if he’s several years younger. If he wants to return to Atlanta, it’s probably for the minimum, as the Hawks payroll is starting to get a little unwieldy. But if Hill wants to cash in on his newfound “defensive stopper” reputation, he could get a nice offer elsewhere.

 

Austin Rivers (PG, DEN)

Rivers play for the Denver Nuggets was better than most expected. If he’s happy there as a placeholder until Jamal Murray returns, Rivers will re-sign with Denver for the minimum. Otherwise, he could leverage a poor free agent class into a bigger offer from a playoff contender seeking guard depth.

 

Jeff Green (PF, BKN)

Since his one-year, $15 million contract with the Orlando Magic expired in 2017, Jeff Green has played for the minimum for five different clubs over the last four seasons. If Green wants to stay with a ready-made title contender in Brooklyn, the Nets will happily bring him back on another minimum deal. If Green wants to cash in one last time, he might have a chance to snag part of the MLE from a playoff hopeful looking for a veteran forward for their bench.

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