Best & Worst Contracts by Length

Michael GinnittiApril 07, 2020

A near impossible task, but our team took a stab at selecting the best & worst contracts based on their length. Only active contracts from the big 4 sports (MLB, NFL, NFL, NBA) were applicable. Enjoy our full breakdown of these selections in this week's edition of The Spotrac Podcast.

1-Year Contracts

Best: Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, LAD: 1 year, $11.5M

Worst: Leonard Williams, DE, NYG, 1 year, $17.04M franchise tag

 

2-Year Contracts

Best: Kawhi Leonard, SF, LAC: 2 years, $67M (+1 unlikely option)

Worst: Jimmy Graham, TE, CHI: 2 years, $16M

 

3-Year Contracts

Best: Julio Jones, WR, ATL: 3 years, $66M

Worst: Andrew McCutchen, OF, PHI: 3 years, $50M

 

4-Year Contracts

Best: Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC: 4 years, $16.4M

Worst: John Wall, PG, WAS: 4 years, $171M

 

5-Year Contracts

Best: Corey Kluber, SP, CLE/TEX: 5 years, $38.5M (+2 options)

Worst: Nicholas Batum, SF, CHA: 5 years, $120M

 

6-Year Contracts

Best: David Pastrnak, RW, BOS: 6 years, $40M

Worst: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL: 6 years, $90M

 

7-Year Contracts

Best: Christian Yelich, OF, MIL: 7 years, $188.5M

Worst: Chris Davis, 1B, BAL: 7 years, $161M

 

8-Year Contracts

Best: Connor McDavid, C, EDM: 8 years, $100M

Worst: Miguel Cabrera, 1B/DH, DET: 8 years, $248M

 

9-Year Contracts

Only: Gerrit Cole, SP, NYY, 9 years, $324M

 

10-Year Contracts

Best: Nicklas Backstrom, C, WAS: 10 years, $67M

Worst: Jordan Staal, C, CAR: 10 years, $60M

 

11-Year Contracts

Best: Jeff Carter, C, LAK: 11 years, $58M

Worst: Johan Franzen, LW, DET: 11 years, $43.5M

 

12-Year Contracts

Best: Mike Trout, OF, LAA: 12 years, $426.5M

Worst: Sidney Crosby, C, PIT: 12 years, $104.4M

 

13-Year Contracts

Best: Alex Ovechkin, LW, WAS: 13 years, $124M

Worst: Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH, NYY: 13 years, $325M

 

14-Year Contracts

Only: Shea Weber, D, MTL: 14 years, $110M

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Michael GinnittiApril 02, 2020

The Cincinnati Bengals...

Trade the #1 overall pick & the #107 pick to the Miami Dolphins for the #5, #18, #39, #70 picks in 2020 + a 2021 3rd round selection, then sign Andy Dalton to a 4 year, $120M extension, including $65M fully guaranteed over the next two seasons. Miami will use it’s final 1st round pick (#26), acquired from Houston in the Laremy Tunsil deal, to replace their former OT.

 

Matthew Stafford...

Won’t be traded in 2020, but the Detroit Lions will draft his heir apparent with the #3 overall selection in 2020, taking Tua Tagovailoa. Tua will get the Patrick Mahomes treatment, sitting behind Stafford this upcoming season, with the idea that he’ll be given the job in 2021, when Stafford’s finances are much more tolerant to trade him out of Detroit.

 

The Philadelphia Eagles...

Trade TE Zach Ertz to the Green Bay Packers for the #62 overall selection in 2020 & a 4th round pick in 2021. Ertz brings over a 2 year $15.1M contract that the Packers will likely need to restructure in the coming months to lock him in a bit longer with more guaranteed money to boot. The move won’t be processed until after June 1st, allowing the Eagles to spread out the $13.6M of dead cap they’ll take on over the next two seasons ($5.8M in 2020, $7.8M in 2021).

 

Cam Newton...

Sits out the entire 2020 season, joining the Fox Sports broadcast team as a studio analyst. Newton will reassess the quarterback landscape in 2021, when quite a few more job openings could (should) become available.

 

The Las Vegas Raiders...

Will trade QB Derek Carr to the New England Patriots before the October trade deadline, handing the job over to Marcus Mariota, who will run the Raiders into the ground, putting them into prime position for Trevor Lawrence in 2021.

 

The Los Angeles Chargers...

Acquire OT Trent Williams from the Washington Redskins in exchange for TE Virgil Green & the #112 pick (4th round) in this year's draft. LA extends Williams to a 3 year $50M restructured contract, $34M fully guaranteed.

 

The Los Angeles Rams...

Will never extend CB Jalen Ramsey. He’ll be asked to play out his 5th year option ($13.7M) in 2020, then be offered a near $17M franchise tag in 2021. He’ll sign it only after an agreement to trade him out of town is put in place.

 

The Pittsburgh Steelers...

Will acquire QB Mitchell Trubisky in the near future to serve as a viable backup and potential (but not likely) future replacement for Ben Roethlisberger, not unlike the path Josh Rosen has taken. Trubisky carries a fully guaranteed $4.5M in 2020, and it’s expected the Bears will exercise a 5th year option for the 2021 season in the coming weeks as well. That option won’t guarantee until March of 2021.

 

The Houston Texans...

Will have another tough decision to make in the coming months as J.J. Watt’s contract will expire after the 2021 season. He has 2 years, $33M remaining, but has also only seen action in 33 of Houston’s last 64 regular season games. The 31 year old has no guaranteed money and no dead cap left on his deal. It’s not without reason that Watt could also decide to hang up the cleats sooner rather than later.

 

The Cleveland Browns...

Will find no suitors for OLB Olivier Vernon’s contract year salary ($15.5M) & will eventually outright release the 29 year old. Cleveland acquired Vernon along with Odell Beckham Jr. but saw a slip in production in his 10 games played last season. His deal carries no dead cap currently.

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Breaking Down Ryan Tannehill's Extension

Michael GinnittiMarch 26, 2020

Ryan Tannehill, 4 years, $118M Extension with Tennessee

The Titans 2019 run was clearly too good to move on from Tannehill in the short term, & Tennessee extended the 31 year old  to a 4 year $118M contract. The deal includes $37.5M in 2020 thanks to a $20M signing bonus, $62M fully guaranteed at signing, all through 2021. If he’s on the roster the 5th league day of 2021, his entire $29M 2022 salary becomes fully guaranteed as well. In other words, Tannehill’s almost certainly guaranteed $91M over the next three seasons, bringing his career earnings to just under $170M - an incredible turnaround for a player who was tossed aside by the Dolphins just one year ago.

Contract Terms

  • $118M Total Value: Ranks 9th among QBs, in between Derek Carr & Alex Smith
  • $29.5M AAV: Ranks 8th among QBs, in between Matt Ryan & Jimmy Garoppolo
  • $20M Signing Bonus: Ranks 11th among veteran QBs; represents 22% of the guaranteed money.
  • $91M Practically Guaranteed: 7th among QBs, largely ahead of Garoppolo.
  • $62M Guaranteed at Sign: 5th among QBs, only Ryan, Rodgers, Wilson, & Wentz secured more.
  • 14.8%, Average Salary vs League Cap: 11th among active QBs, behind Derek Carr

Cap Hits

  • $22.5M: About a $4M savings versus the non-exclusive franchise tag
  • $29M: Seems high, but there are already 9 figures ahead of it in 2021, & more to come.
  • $34M: The league cap could climb to $230M in 2022, making this a tenable 14% of that.
  • $32M: Likely a moot year anyway (he's either gone, or extended)

Cash Flow

  • $37.5M: This first year payout ranks 7th among active QB contracts
  • $24.5M: $62M through two seasons ranks 6th among active QB contracts
  • $29M: $91M through three seasons ranks 6th among active QB contracts
  • $27M: He’ll be 35 years old in 2023.

Guarantee & Dead Cap Structure

While this looks like a 2 year contract on paper as the contract currently shows ($10M of dead cap in 2022 versus a $34M cap figure, the guaranteed dates say otherwise. Tannehill’s first two salaries are fully guaranteed, and the 2022 salary becomes fully guaranteed next March, at which time his 2022 dead cap figure will rise to $39M. This all but secures his roster spot through the next three seasons.

Thoughts

If you look at his statistics, Tannehill was actually showing signs of efficiency improvement in 2016 before partially tearing his ACL in early December. He tore it again next August putting him out for the entire 2017 season. His return in 2018 saw a dip in yardage, but an increase in TDs, & Passer Rating. While a jump to a 70% completion rate and 117.5 Rating in his 10 games with the Titans seems unfathomable, it’s possible to project he can settle in somewhere around the 67% completion rate, 95 Passer Rate mark over the next few seasons, above average production. With Derrick Henry’s long-term future in Tennessee an unknown, there may come a point in time where Tannehill will be asked to push his attempts per game back up into the 35+ mark. In the past, this kind of volume has seen his production slip mightily, so it’s fair to question his ability to carry an offense going forward.

In terms of the money itself, any QB that turns a franchise’s seasons around & leads them into a deep playoff run in a contract year is bound for Top 10 money. As noted above, none of his financial metrics reach the Top 5 mark, making this above average, but not elite pay. In fact, one of the more important metrics, the Percent of Average Salary vs. League Salary Cap, tells a good story about where this deal lands across the NFL. Tannehill secured 14.8% of the league cap on is $29.5M AAV, which is less than Derek Carr secured 3 years ago with the Raiders. The only real point of contention here has to do with his 2022 salary becoming guaranteed next March, virtually making him locked in for a full three seasons. It’s an awful lot of time and money to have to pay someone who could return back to “average” in the next few months.

But if the math problem is “How do we keep both Ryan Tannehill & Derrick Henry, when only one can get tagged and the other will need multi-year guarantees? Paying the quarterback is always the right solution. Unless it’s not.

 

View Ryan Tannehill's Full Contract Breakdown

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2020 Minimum, Franchise and Transition Tag Values, & Restricted Tenders

Scott AllenMarch 16, 2020
Minimum Salaries
Service 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
0 $610k $660k $705k $750k $795k $840k $885k $930k $975k $1.02M $1.065M
1 $675k $780k $825k $870k $915k $960k $1.005M $1.05M $1.095M $1.14M $1.185M
2 $750k $850k $895k $940k $985k $1.03M $1.075M $1.12M $1.165M $1.21M $1.255M
3 $825k $920k $965k $1.01M $1.055M $1.10M $1.145M $1.19M $1.235M $1.28M $1.325M
4 to 6 $910k $990k $1.035M $1.08M $1.125M $1.17M $1.215M $1.26M $1.305M $1.35M $1.395M
7+ $1.050M $1.075 $1.120M $1.165M $1.21M $1.255M $1.3M $1.345M $1.39M $1.435M $1.48M

 

2020 Franchise Tag Values
Position Non-Exclusive Tag
Quarterback $26,824,000
Running Back $10,278,000
Wide Receiver $17,865,000
Tight End $10,607,000
Offensive Line $14,781,000
Defensive End $17,788,000
Defensive Tackle $16,126,000
Linebacker $15,828,000
Cornerback $16,338,000
Safety $11,441,000
Kicker/Punter $5,019,000

 

2020 Transition Tag Values
Position Tag Value
Quarterback $24,837,000
Running Back $8,483,000
Wide Receiver $15,680,000
Tight End $9,117,000
Offensive Line $13,505,000
Defensive End $15,184,000
Defensive Tackle $16,126,000
Linebacker $13,737,000
Cornerback $14,197,000
Safety $9,860,000
Kicker/Punter $4,559,000

 

Restricted Free Agent Tenders
Tender 2020 Value
Original Round/First Refusal $2,133,000
Second Round $3,259,000
First Round $4,641,000

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Mike Ginnitti discusses which NFL teams are hoping & praying for a ratified CBA heading toward March. Plus, are we nearing a point where QB contracts just won't be worth it? And, the Rams don't have many financial outs, but Todd Gurley may be one of them.

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