Spotrac's MLB Offseason recap series continues with a look at the AL West, that features a largely rebuilt Rangers roster, the pitching-heavy Mariners, a potentially backsliding Astros, the suddenly prodigal A's, & an Angels team that won't say uncle.

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Athletics

The Athletics finished 4th in the AL West, posting 69 wins against a 30th ranked $84M tax payroll. With a little more pressure on them to spend this time around, the Athletics have now raised their projected 2025 payroll near $100M, 27th in the league right now.

2025 Projections

76 wins, 4th in the AL West

Notable Subtractions

The A's saw a few notable pieces to their pitching rotation/bullpen walk in free agency, but aggressively replaced a few of these roles with their own (unusual) offseason spending.

(SS) Nick Allen
(SP) Joe Boyle, Alex Wood
(RP) Ross Stripling, Scott Alexander, Trevor Gott

Notable Additions

Luis Severino's 3 year, $67M deal is the highest total value/APY contract in the history of the franchise. Tie that into a 5 year, $60M extension for Brent Rooker & a $10M deal for Jose Leclerc and it's not hard to understand just how different this offseason has been for this organization. The Athletics spent $43.6M in free agency this season, 18th in the league.

Via Free Agency
(SP) Luis Severino, $23.3M
(RP) Jose Leclerc, $10M
(3B) Gio Urshela, $2.15M
(RP) TJ McFarland, $1.8M

Via Trade
(SP) Jeffrey Springs

Prospects/Farm System

The Athletics' farm system currently ranks 11th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Nick Kurtz (1B), and 2023 1st Rounder Jacob Wilson (SS). Hitting on their last two top draft picks is a big step forward for a franchise trying to find a strong foothold for the first time in a decade.

Top 100 Prospects
(1B) Nick Kurtz, (SS) Jacob Wilson

2025 Storylines

• The MLB Union essentially forced the A's to increase their spending this offseason (or risk losing their revenue share). It's more of a consequence of a COVID/Relocation agreement than it was a disciplinary action, but it got the job done (sort of). Will this be a one-off, or will the spending lead to more wins, which in turn forces the team to continue spending, etc...
• The A's 40-man roster consists of 6 veteran contracts, 3 arbitration-level salaries, and 31 pre-arbitration salaries. This is an incredibly young team that could develop into a legitimate core unit over the next calendar year.
• Speedster Esteury Ruiz battled injuries in 2024 that derailed his production/impact. He enters 2025 healthy and could be a legitimate x-factor for the A's with a new (old) onus on speed within the game.

Houston Astros

Despite a slow start, the Astros won the AL West in 2024 against a 6th-ranked $264M tax payroll, putting them about $30M over the threshold. They've trimmed back significantly this offseason, now projecting toward a $229M payroll to begin the 2025 season (about $12M under the $241M threshold).

2025 Projections

84 wins, 3rd in the AL West

Notable Subtractions

Bregman and Tucker are gigantic losses (obviously) while both the starting rotation and bullpen are in early stages of turning over new leaves as well. The roster is still very much strung up by long-term deals for Jose Altuve and Josh Hader, but for the most part, the Astros are in a bit of transition and could be very fluid throughout the 2025 season.

(3B) Alex Bregman
(OF) Kyle Tucker, Jason Heyward
(SP) Justin Verlander, Yusei Kikuchi, Jose Urquidy
(RP) Ryan Pressly, Kendall Graveman, Hector Neris, Caleb Ferguson

Notable Additions

Houston made an early splash to bring in 1B Christian Walker on a 3/60 free agent deal, and filled two needs in 1 move in sending Tucker to the Cubs for 3B Paredes & SP Wesneski. But this was clearly an offseason of subtraction, not addition. The Astros spent $61.2M total in free agency, 14th in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(1B) Christian Walker, $20M
(OF) Ben Gamel, $1.2M

Via Trade
(3B) Isaac Paredes, (SP) Hayden Wesneski, (OF) Taylor Trammell

Prospects/Farm System

The Astros' farm system currently ranks 29th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Cam Smith (3B). Houston has operating with a near bottom of the league ranked farm for the better part of a decade, but have also successfully gotten more out of "middle-tier" talent than most organizations. It's not a trend that can continue for too long, but there's chance they have another 4-6 players ready to impact the MLB roster in the next calendar year.

Top 100 Prospects
(3B) Cam Smith

2025 Storylines

• It's a step-back/subtraction year for the Astros with a financial goal to remain under the tax-threshold and escape repeater status. But they'll enter 2025 in the Wildcard conversation until further notice.
• How will the positional-puzzle sort out? There appear to be a lot of changing/interchangable parts to open the season. Could it prompt even further subtraction?
• If the team starts to slide in the win column, having the highest paid closer in baseball may prove inefficient.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels finished in the AL West in 2024 despite a 15th-ranked $190M tax payroll. A somewhat aggressive winter has their 2025 number projected toward $212M, 11th in MLB.

2025 Projections

75 wins, 5th in the AL West

Notable Subtractions

The Angels started the offseason off with a bang, non-tendering two of their starting pitchers (Sandoval/Canning) and staking their claim to the league that change was coming.

(OF) Kevin Pillar
(C) Matt Thaiss
(SP) Patrick Sandoval, Griffin Canning
(RP) Matt Moore, Hunter Strickland

Notable Additions

The Angels made an early splash, signing SP Kikuchi away from Toronto on a 3 year, $64M deal. They've backed that up with smaller additions all around their roster, looking for stopgap upgrades in every positional group this season. The Angels spent $96M in free agency, 9th in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(SP) Yusei Kikuchi, $21.225M
(SP) Kenley Jansen, $10M
(C) Travis d’Arnaud, $6M
(3B) Yoan Moncada, $5M
(SS) Kevin Newman, $2.75M
(SP) Kyle Hendricks, $2.5M

Via Trade
(DH) Jorge Soler

Prospects/Farm System

The Angels' farm system currently ranks 30th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Caden Dana (RHP). LAA is regularly one of the lower rated systems in the league, mostly because they aggressively call-up players to the MLB roster before they ever have time to rate highly in the minor league systems, but also because they've had a poor track record of drafting and developing for quite some time. That coincides with an aggressive free agency, despite another projected last-place finish.

Top 100 Prospects
(2B) Christian Moore, (P) Caden Dana

2025 Storylines

• Anthony Rendon's latest injury is likely a killshot to his career, despite the fact that he's owed $70M across this and next season. Will the Angels just buy him out and end this misery?
• The Angels have had early season success each of the past few years before injuries took them off of the tracks. Will conscious moves to protect Trout and depth additions this offseason help alleviate that?

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners won 85 games in 2024, good enough for 2nd in the AL West against a $167M tax payroll, 17th in MLB. They're on track to match these figures again in 2025, projecting toward a $160M payroll next season.

2025 Projections

84 wins, 2nd in the AL West

Notable Subtractions

Garcia is the most notable loss here as he moves on to help boslter the back-end of the Blue Jays bullpen. But the Mariners are about as deep internally with arms (especially starters) as any team in the league right now.

(3B) Josh Rojas
(DH) Justin Turner
(RP) Yimi Garcia, Austin Voth

Notable Additions

Polanco figures to start the year as the Mariners Opening Day 3B, while Solano will slot into a depth/utility role for Seattle in 2025. Obviously, this has been a quite winter for adding in Seattle. The Mariners spent $11.25M in free agency, 24th in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(2B) Jorge Polanco, $7.75M
(INF) Donovan Solano, $3.5M

Via Trade
N/A

Prospects/Farm System

The Mariners' farm system currently ranks 5th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Colt Emerson (SS). After hitting a few home runs with pitching prospects, Seattle turned its attention to bolstering their bats, and they have a group of 3-4 players that are approaching the next level (2026/2027 most likely).

Top 100 Prospects
(SS) Colt Emerson, (OF) Lazaro Montes, (SS) Cole Young, (C) Harry Ford, (S S) Felnin Celesten, (OF) Jonny Farmelo, (2B) Michael Arroyo

2025 Storylines

• From the outside looking in, this is a team that can pitch as well as any in the game - but lacks the ability t score runs on any consistent basis. Are they sitting on their hands waiting for their young prospects to develop into MLB-ready players? A quiet offseason lends itself to that thought.
• After 2-straight Top 10 MVP vote finishes, Julio Rodriguez fell off a bit in 2024 (battling an ankle injury as well). With limited impact players in the lineup from the onset, Rodriguez being an alpha player day in and out is as important to this roster as anything.
• SP Luis Castillo has been rumored in trade talks since Halloween. With 3 years, $45.5M remaining on his contract, Seattle could acquire MLB-ready bats and then some. Is this still on the table?

Texas Rangers

The Rangers disappointing 2024 saw them win 78 games (3rd in the AL West) against a 5th-ranked $268M tax payroll. Things have dialed back a bit this offseason, as Texas now projects toward a $230M payroll for 2025, about $11M under the first threshold. Remaining out of tax-repeater status is a likely goal this season.

2025 Projections

85 wins, 1st in the AL West

Notable Subtractions

A disappointing 2024 led to a pretty aggressive purge either via free agency, or in Lowe's case, a good sized trade out of town. However, as noted below here, the Rangers were just as aggressive in adding as they were in subtracting. This is a classic stir-the-pot scenario that could quickly put them back near the top of the AL in 2025.

(1B) Nate Lowe
(C) Carson Kelly
(DH) Travis Jankowski
(SP) Max Scherzer, Andrew Heaney, Jose Urena
(RP) Kirby Yates, Jose Leclerc, David Robertson, Andrew Chafin, Chase Anderson

Notable Additions

Texas put together an offseason that included retaining a few players, and bringing in a few notable faces at basically every position group across the roster. Eovaldi returning on a 3 year $75M deal is the big swing here, but adding Pederson and Burger's bat to the mix could really make for an explosive offense at times. The Rangers spent $137.5M in free agency, 8th in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(SP) Nathan Eovaldi, $25M
(DH) Joc Pederson, $18.5M
(C) Kyle Higashioka, $6.75M
(RP) Chris Martin, $5.5M
(RP) Hoby Milner, $2.5M
(RP) Shawn Armstrong, $1.25M
(RP) Jacob Webb, $1.25M

Via Trade
(DH) Jake Burger
(RP) Robert Garcia

Prospects/Farm System

The Rangers' farm system currently ranks 19th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Kumar Rocker (SP). Texas could see as many as 5 of their top prospects hit the big league roster in 2025, with infielder Sebastian Walcott not far behind.

Top 100 Prospects
(SS) Sebastian Walcott, (P) Kumar Rocker, (P) Alejandro Rosario

2025 Storylines

• Will the roster shakeups/upgrades lead to an immediate bounceback season? The division is especially winnable this year, and Texas could be in the clear driver's seat by the trade deadline.
• The group to watch here will be the bullpen, where the majority of the projected starters are new to the organization in 2025.
• The Rangers would probably like to delay Kumar Rocker's addition to the rotation, but health (especially with deGrom) could force their hand.
• Year 2 of Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter as everyday players could prove extremely fruitful (and financially valuable) to the immediate success of this team.

Spotrac's MLB Offseason recap series continues with a look at the NL West, led by a near $400M Dodgers roster, playoff hopefuls in Arizona, San Diego, & San Francisco, and a Colorado team that continues to slide backwards.

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona 3rd in the NL West in 2024, posting 89 wins against a $223M tax payroll (13th). They've cut back a little bit heading into 2025, currently projecting toward a $211M payroll, 13th in MLB.

2025 Projections

85 wins, 2nd in the NL West

Notable Subtractions

Losses of Walker and Pederson will certainly impact their lineup in 2025, but the Diamondbacks feel like their young core can carry/keep them in playoff contention on an annual basis - even in this behemoth of a division.

(1B) Christian Walker, Josh Bell
(DH) Joc Pederson
(SS) Kevin Newman
(RP) Paul Sewald, Slade Cecconi

Notable Additions

Arizona added one of the big fish this offseason in Corbin Burnes, who now anchors a very impressive top rotation (Burnes, Gallen, Kelly). Naylor joins from Cleveland to take on the everyday 1B role vacated by Walker. The Diamondbacks spent $216.35M in free agency this season, 4th in the league.

Via Free Agency
(SP) Corbin Burnes, $35M
(OF) Randal Grichuk,$2M

Via Trade
(1B) Josh Naylor

Prospects/Farm System

The Diamondbacks' farm system currently ranks 22nd according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Jordan Lawlar (SS/3B), who just needs to get healthy for a long stretch before he'll start impacting the major league roster. This was the #2 rated system in 2024, but a large portion of their talent has now graduated to the big league level.

Top 100 Prospects
(SS/3B) Jordan Lawlar

2025 Storylines

• Does this lineup have enough firepower to contend in what is sure to be an explosive division from an offensive standpoint?
• If the rotation or bullpen falter, Arizona will need to spend (dwindling) assets to fix it. Their inability to develop arms on a consistent basis has made for (annual) expensive moves.
• Is Corbin Carroll a legitimate star? Can Jordan Lawlar take the next step?

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies finished a division-last 61-101 in 2024, despite carrying a 16th-ranked $171M tax payroll. They've dropped that projected price down to $140M for the upcoming season, which brings them outside of the Top 20 financially.

2025 Projections

63 wins, 5th in the NL West

Notable Subtractions

The Rockies saw a significant portion of their core unit leave town this winter, turning over much of the everyday lineup to a youthful, less expensive group. Don't be surprised if Ryan McMahon (3 years, $44M remaining) is on the short list to be moved next.

(DH) Charlie Blackmon
(OF) Jake Cave
(2B) Brendan Rodgers
(SP) Cal Quantrill, Ty Blach
(RP) Peter Lambert

Notable Additions

Colorado brought in a few relatively inexpensive veteran pieces to plug a few offseason holes, but are no longer showing signed of buying/adding with any substance. The Rockies spent $$11M total in free agency, 25th in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(SS) Kyle Farmer, $3.25M
(2B) Tairo Estrada, $3.25M
(C) Jacob Stallings $2.5M

Via Trade
N/A

Prospects/Farm System

The Rockies' farm system currently ranks 13th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Chase Dollander (RHP). Colorado has a fairly stout starting rotation on the big-league roster, and with Dollander (one of the top young arms in the game) on the way soon, could have a fairly formidable set of starters soon. They may be in position to start flipping some of this arm talent in an effort to bolster the lineup in the coming months.

Top 100 Prospects
(SP) Chase Dollander, (OF) Charlie Condon

2025 Storylines

• While the division (and subsequently the postseason) are out of reach in 2025, Colorado has a chance to use the upcoming season to develop a pitching staff for the first time in a long time.
• There are bloated contracts on this DOA roster, most notably Kris Bryant (4 years, $108M remaining). Will this front office aggressively look to get out from under in order to preserve the next few offseasons?

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers won the NL West in 2024 on the heels of a league-high $353M tax payroll. They've kept the gas pedal down this winter, now projecting toward an historic $393M payroll for the upcoming 2025 season.

2025 Projections

97 wins, 1st in the NL West

Notable Subtractions

While this looks like a glaring list of losses, the Dodgers have added in bulk at all of these (and more) positions this past winter to account for each subtraction.

(2B) Gavin Lux
(SP) Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty
(RP) Ryan Brasier

Notable Additions

The Dodgers didn't rest on the laurels of their 2024 World Series, dishing out notable deals for Snell, Hernandez, and Scott while also locking in UTIL Tommy Edman long-term. Oh and by the way, they won the Roki Sasaki bidding war, and secured a new starting 2B via international free agency in Kim. The Dodgers spent $386M in free agency, 2nd in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(SP) Blake Snell, $36.4M
(OF) Teoscar Hernandez, $22M
(RP) Tanner Scott, $18M
(OF) Michael Conforto, $17M
(RP) Kirby Yates, $13M
RP) Blake Treinen, $11M
(2B) Hyeseong Kim, $6.5M (UTL) Enrique Hernandez, $3.5M

Via Foreign Professional
(2B) Hyeseong Kim, $6.5M

Via International
(SP) Roki Sasaki

Via Trade
N/A

Prospects/Farm System

The Dodgers' farm system currently ranks 3rd according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Roki Sasaki (RHP). The balance, substance, and impeccable development record of this franchise as a whole has to be infuriating to other MLB organizations. Though it should be stated that much of LAD's young talent has faced significant injury issues early on in their careers of late.

Top 100 Prospects
(SP) Roki Sasaki, (C) Dalton Rushing, (OF) Josue De Paula, (P) Jackson Ferris, (SS) Alex Freeland, (OF) Zyhir Hope

2025 Storylines

• If they're even relatively healthy, this has a chance to be one of the best 1-26 lineups baseball has seen in a long time.
• Does Max Muncy have a long-term future on this roster, or is he an early in-season trade name to watch?
• How will the team handle the "villain" role that the front office has essentially put them in with their aggressiveness and deferred payment structure?

San Diego Padres

The Padres made a late-season charge to finish just behind the Dodgers in 2024 while staying under the tax threshold at $227M (11th most). The 2025 numbers look heftier at the onset, projecting over $260M for Opening Day ($20M+ over the first threshold).

2025 Projections

83 wins, 3rd in the NL West

Notable Subtractions

San Diego lost more than a few notable pieces to their 2024 puzzle and have been rumored to let a few more go via trade at some point in 2025. That likely depends on how the next few months look, but the Padres front office has been, and will remain, one of the more aggressive in all of MLB.

(OF) Jurickson Profar
(SS) Ha-Seong Kim
(C) Kyle Higashioka
(2B) Donovan Solano
(INF) Nick Ahmed
(SP) Martin Perez
(RP) Tanner Scott, CJ Edwards

Notable Additions

Pivetta becomes one of the better late-winter additions, but San Diego was largely quite this offseason both in terms of improving their roster - or even replacing some of the production they let walk into free agncy. There's certainly belief in some of the youth within the orgazization (starting largely with Jackson Merrill of course), but there's a chance that they're not quite the same unit in 2025. The Padres spent $62M in free agency, 13th in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(SP) Nick Pivetta, $11.5M
(C) Elias Diaz, $3.5M
(P) Kyle Hart, $1M
(OF) Connor Joe, $1M
(OF) Jason Heyward $1M

Via Trade
(RP) Ron Marinaccio

Prospects/Farm System

The Padres' farm system currently ranks 26th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Leodalis De Vries (SS). This is a group defined by a few notable players at the top, then a very thin list the rest of the way down. San Diego's aggressiveness in the trade market over the past few seasons has all but decimated this group.

Top 100 Prospects
(SS) Leodalis De Vries, (C) Ethan Salas

2025 Storylines

• With lawsuits hampering the ownership group, it's safe to say that the business side of the organziation could very well be in a bit of a holding pattern until sides are settled.
• If the wheels start to fall off on the field, look for teams to start to inquire about the big contracts here (Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado). Easier said than done moves however.
• At some point in time this franchise will need to turn its focus to draft & development, after a solid decade of buying/acquiring a huge majority of their active roster.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants finished 2024 with 80 wins, good for 4th place in the NL West despite the 8th highest tax payroll, and a slight tax bill last season. That was certainly a motivating factor in the organization dialing things back a bit, as they now project toward a $211M tax payroll to start 2025 ($30M below the first threshold).

2025 Projections

80 wins, 4th in the NL West

Notable Subtractions

Snell is the big loss here, to be replaced (hopefully) by 42-year-old Justin Verlander for now, while much of this production at the plate could/should be filled in by the big acquisition of SS Willy Adames this winter. Keeping Matt Chapman in the fold and securing a full, healthy season out of Jung Hoo Lee could make for a nice turnaround offensively.

(OF) Michael Conforto, Mark Canha
(2B) Thairo Estrada
(C) Blake Sabol
(SP) Blake Snell
(RP) Taylor Rogers

Notable Additions

It's just Judge or Ohtani, or Soto - but Adames is very very nice get for this Giants team that has long been trying to secure a significant position player in free agency. The fact that he's also a capable shortstop certainly amplifies this signing. Verlander is a solid stopgap signing if healthy, though it stands to reason that this active roster is still a starter away. The Giants spent $197M in free agency, 5th in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(SS) Willy Adames, $21M
(SP) Justin Verlander, $15M

Via Trade
(SS) Osleivis Basabe

Prospects/Farm System

The Giants farm system currently ranks 24th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Bryce Eldridge (1B). Unfortuantely outside of Eldridge, things get thin fast inside this Giants' organization. If they're out of contention come July, look for a few deadlines moves to help try to bolster the system as much as possible.

Top 100 Prospects
(1B) Bryce Eldridge

2025 Storylines

• The Giants overhauled their front office ahead of 2025, which may take a few offseasons to truly get on track. It didn't stop them from being relatively aggressive this winter, but if the team isn't winning ball games soon, will a major pivot be forthcoming?
• Adding to the farm system might be as important as winning MLB games right now. This is a franchise that isn't winning in free agency, so the draft & development approach has to become the focus.

Spotrac's MLB Offseason recap series continues with a look at the AL Central, including four teams all relatively close in terms of projection payrolls and 2025 wins - and then the White Sox.

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Chicago White Sox

The 41-win White Sox carried the 23rd-highest tax payroll at $134.5M last season. After continuing to bottom-out, Chicago enters 2025 with an $83M projected payroll, 2nd lowest only to Miami ($79M) right now.

2025 Projections

62 wins, 5th in the AL Central

Notable Subtractions

Yoan Moncada joins the Angels after cashing over $70M as a member of the White Sox, while Garrett Crochet's trade to Boston could prove to be one of the most impactful moves of the offseason.

(3B) Yoan Moncada
OF) Gavin Sheets
(SP) Garrett Crochet, Mike Soroka
(RP) Dominic Leone

Notable Additions

Chicago added a few long-time vets to their mix to eat up innings, hold down the fort, and potentially become trade chips down the stretch. Chicago spent $15.2M in free agency this season, 23rd in the league.

Via Free Agency
(SP) Martin Perez, $3.5M
(3B) Josh Rojas, $3.5M
(OF) Mike Tauchman, $1.95M
(OF) Austin Slater, $1.75M
(RP) Bryse Wilson, $1.05M

Via Trade
(C) Matt Thaiss

Prospects/Farm System

The White Sox farm system currently ranks 4th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Noah Schultz (LHP). It's a stark rise for an organization that just 3 years ago, held what was considered the worst prospect pool in MLB. There's reason to believe that greener grass is coming quickly for this franchise.

Top 100 Prospects
(SP) Noah Schultz, (C) Kyle Teel, (SP) Hagen Smith, (SS) Colson Montgomery, (OF) Braden Montgomery, (C) Edgar Quero

2025 Storylines

• Two notable players (Luis Robert Jr., Andrew Vaughn) weren't moved amidst the purge this offseason. Both are heading into contract years (Robert holds club options), and could be dangled at the deadline if healthy.
• Is Colson Montgomery the SS of the future? He was drafted as such back in 2021 but has struggled mightly ever since. The White Sox will have pitching comin soon, but will need a few young bats to start popping if they're going to turn this thing around.
• Is there a chance 2025 resembles 2024? Possibly, but 120+ losses again would be catastrophic for this franchise. They're a year away from getting a serious infusion of youth at the MLB level, so the upcoming season is a grin-and-bear-it situation once again.

Cleveland Guardians

The Guardians somewhat surprisinlgy soared to 92 wins and an AL Central title in 2024 while carrying a 21st ranked $144M tax payroll. They've trimmed a little fat this offseaon financially speaking, and head into 2025 with a $119M projection, 25th in MLB.

2025 Projections

78 wins, 4th in the AL Central

Notable Subtractions

The Guardians moved on from two impact starters this winter, shipping Josh Naylor to Arizona and Andres Gimenez to the Blue Jays, as they turn to younger options at the midde of the infield (with even more firepower coming through the system quickly in that regard).

(1B) Josh Naylor
(2B) Andres Gimenez
(SP) Matt Boyd, Alex Cobb
(RP) Nick Sandlin, Scott Barlow, Eli Morgan, Peter Strzelecki

Notable Additions

Cleveland brought back a few familiar faces in Santana (who figures to be the Opening Day 1B), and Bieber, whose arm injury derailed his 2024 season and first go-around in free agency. Sewald's addition to the backend of the bullpen makes it one of the best in all of baseball (it already was).

The Guardians spent $54.5M in free agency, 16th in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(1B) Carlos Santana, $12M
(SP) Shane Bieber, $10M
(RP) Paul Sewald, $6M
(C) Austin Hedges, $4M

Via Trade
(SP) Luis Ortiz, Slade Cecconi

Prospects/Farm System

The Guardians farm system currently ranks 7th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Travis Bazzana (2B). Cleveland has long-been a pitching development machine, and that still appears to be the case for the next iteration of arms coming through the pipeline. They also possess very strong talent up the middle of the infield and outfield.

Top 100 Prospects
(2B) Travis Bazzana, (OF) Chase DeLauter, (OF) Jaison Chourio, (INF) Angel Genao

2025 Storylines

• Was last years run a bit of fool's gold? Most preseason projections have Cleveland buried in this division. Can they overcome a bit more turnover than normal?
• The loss of Naylor means this team will struggle even more to hit the long ball. Can they prove (again) that small-ball and sound pitching can prevail?
• Second Base and Right Field appear to be very fluid situations heading toward Opening Day. This could be an active "buy" team early on.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers put together a strong 2024 campaign, posting 86 wins (tied with KC for 2nd) against the 28th ranked $109M tax payroll. They've beefed up a bit heading into 2025, now projecting toward a $153M Opening Day payroll, 19th in MLB.

2025 Projections

82 wins, 2nd in the AL Central

Notable Subtractions

Detroit (rightfully) likes quite a bit about themselves right now, opting to keep their 2024 largely intact for the upcoming season, with hopes that a few of the younger players can platform themselves to another level in 2025.

(RP) Shelby Miller

Notable Additions

The Tigers made calculated additions this winter, adding veteran pieces to their rotation and bullpen, while identifying Gleyber Torres as a stopgap upgrade for the disastrous contract that is Javy Baez.

The Tigers spent $75M in free agency, 12th in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(SP) Jack Flaherty, $25M
(2B) Gleyber Torres, $15M
(SP) Alex Cobb, $15M
(RP) Tommy Kahnle, $7.75M
(RP) John Brebbia, $2.25M


Via Trade
N/A

Prospects/Farm System

The Tigers' farm system currently ranks 2nd according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Jackson Jobe (RHP). The internal pitching development process already started paying off with Tarik Skubal's Cy Young win in 2024. Jackson Jobe could be next in line to reach these heights, with at least 2-3 more legitimate starting arms nearing MLB-level status.

Top 100 Prospects
(SP) Jackson Jobe, (OF) Max Clark, (SS) Kevin McGonigle, (SS) Bryce Rainer, (C/1B) Thayron Liranzo, (1B/C) Josue Briceno

2025 Storylines

• Simply put: Can they recreate or even improve upon a great run in 2024?
• Detroit has moved around a few pieces to cover up for Spencer Torkelson's continued struggles. Does he have a role in this organization going forward?
• How aggressive will this front office be in July if the division and a postseason run is on the table? A $75M offseason is a good indication that they're pot-invested.

Kansas City Royals

The Royals tied with Detroit for 2nd in the AL Central last season, posting 86 wins against a $160M tax payroll (20th in MLB). They head into 2025 right around the some neighborhood, projecting to a $165M payroll for the upcoming season, 16th in the league.

2025 Projections

82 wins, 3rd in the AL Central

Notable Subtractions

The Royals have been operating on short-term, plug-and-play contracts for the better part of 3 offseasons now, so it'll be common to see them relinquish a number of free agents in this regard. Singer is of course the notable loss here, traded to Cincinnati in the Jonathan India acquisition.

(OF) Tommy Pham
(2B) Adam Frazier
(1B) Yuli Gurriel
(SS) Paul DeJong
(SP) Brady Singer
(RP) Will Smith

Notable Additions

Estevez joins from Philly on a 2 year, $22M contract and should slot in as the Opening Day closer. India can work in a few places defensively, but should most notably be an upgrade at the leadoff spot in front of Bobby Witt Jr. He's also arbitration-eligible for one more season.

The Pirates spent $29.2M in free agency, 20th in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(RP) Carlos Estevez, $10.1M
(SP) Michael Lorenzen, $7M

Via Trade
(2B) Jonathan India
(OF) Joey Wiemer

Prospects/Farm System

The Royals' farm system currently ranks 27th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Jac Caglianone (1B). This is a thin group, with only a few impact bats currently on track to progress to MLB in the coming years.

Top 100 Prospects
(1B) Jac Caglianone, (C) Blake Mitchell, (C) Carter, Jensen

2025 Storylines

• Despite minimal changes this winter, can the Royals continue to succeed off of their big 2024 offseason?
• With a weak farm system, how does this organization attract enough offensive firepower to keep Bobby Witt Jr. properly protected in the lineup?

Minnesota Twins

The Twins finished 2024 in 4th place in the AL Central, carrying a 19th ranked $161M tax payroll. Minnesota is on pace to stay right around the mark heading into 2025, with an Opening Day payroll projecting toward $150M right now.

2025 Projections

84 wins, 1st in the AL Central

Notable Subtractions

Minnesota sees a few key members of the 2024 roster leave in Santana & Kepler, but this offseason was about "officially" turning over the keys to their long-term development. 6 of the 9 projected starters were drafted by the Twins as either 1st or 2nd round picks.

(1B) Carlos Santana
(OF) Max Kepler
(SS) Kyle Farmer
(SP) Anthony Desclafani
(RP) Caleb Thielbar

Notable Additions

France figures to be the Opening Day 1B and Coulombe should secure a spot in the middle of the bullpen, but the Twins were largely silent on the open market this winter. Their $10.25M of free agent spending ranks 26th in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(OF) Harrison Bader, $6.25M
(RP) Danny Coulombe, $3M
(1B) Ty France, $1M

Via Trade
N/A

Prospects/Farm System

The Twins farm system currently ranks 8th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Walker Jenkins (OF). Jenkins is MLB's #3 overall prospect right now and should factor in by 2026. Minnesota's ability to draft and development arms has kept them relevant, and that trend should continue.

Top 100 Prospects
(OF) Walker Jenkins, (OF) Emmanuel Rodriguez, (2B) Luke Keaschall

2025 Storylines

• The ownership of the team has been in question for quite some time now, and it appears to be remaining in flux with a recent bid dropped by the Ishbias. Will this temper the organization's ability to stay competitive over the next few months of baseball if moves are required?
• The team is pot-committed toward SP Pablo Lopez, SS Carlos Correa, and OF Byron Buxton, all of whom carry serious injury history. Keeping this core healthy is a puzzle inside of the puzzle here.
• A quiet offseason indicates this team is ready for its youth to begin to breakout. If that happens, will the Twins become the 2024 Tigers?

Spotrac's MLB Offseason recap series begins with a look at the NL Central, led by a Cubs team that has ramped up, Pirates & Reds teams looking for magic, a Brewers team looking to win on value, and a Cardinals roster at a standstill.

RELATED
MLB Offseason Tracker
2025 Tax Payrolls
Available Free Agents

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs carried the 9th largest tax payroll in 2024, finishing just over the $237M threshold last season. They enter 2025 with a $210M CBT estimate, 14th in MLB and around $36M under the threshold ($241M).

2025 Projections

84.5 wins, 1st in the NL Central

Notable Subtractions

The Cubs retained $2.5M of Cody Bellinger’s salary per his trade to the Yankees.
(OF) Cody Bellinger
(3B) Isaac Paredes
(SP) Kyle Hendricks
(RP) Hayden Wesneski, Jorge Lopez, Drew Smyly

Notable Additions

Tucker is the big catch this offseason, but the Cubs weren’t shy about adding pieces to the bullpen this winter as well. They were one of the most aggressive trade teams, a trend that could continue into the season as they see fit. Chicago spent $56.25M in free agency this season, 15th in the league.

Via Free Agency
(SP) Matt Boyd, $12.5M
(C) Carson Kelly, $5M
(SP) Colin Rea, $4.75M
(RP) Caleb Thielbar, $2.75M
(INF) Jon Berti, $2M

Via Trade
(OF) Kyle Tucker
(2B) Vidal Brujan
(SP) Cody Poteet
(RP) Ryan Pressly, Ryan Brasier, Eli Morgan

Prospects/Farm System

The Cubs farm system currently ranks 15th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Matt Shaw (3B). The pool is thin when it comes to pitching, but is loaded with middle infielders.

Top 100 Prospects
(3B) Matt Shaw, (OF) Owen Caissie, (C) Moises Ballesteros, (2B) James Triantos, (OF) Kevin Alcantara, (SS) Jefferson Rojas, (SP) Cade Horton

2025 Storylines

• Can Nico Hoerner prove he belongs in the mix long-term?
• Will the Cubs aggressively try to keep top pending free agent Kyle Tucker off of the open market?
• Is the bullpen deep enough to make this team a legit NL Central contender?

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds posted the 25th highest tax payroll in 2024, finishing just over $123M ($114M under the threshold). They enter 2025 with a $124M CBT estimate, 22nd in MLB and around $117M under the $241M threshold.

2025 Projections

78 wins, 4th in the NL Central

Notable Subtractions

Jonthan India’s trade to Kansas City brought back Brady Singer, who currently slots in as the SP2 for Cincinnati in 2025. Both players are arb-eligible again in 2026.

(1B) Ty France
(2B) Jonathan India
(SS) Amed Rosario
(C) Luke Maile
(RP) Justin Wilson, Fernando Cruz, Buck Farmer, Jacob Junis

Notable Additions

Martinez surprised a few when he signed his qualifying offer, though it does represent a $9M raise from the $12M player option he declined this fall. Lux fills a much needed utility role for this Reds team defensively, while Rogers slots in as a very formidable setup reliever for Alexis Diaz in 2025.

The Reds spent $10M in free agency, 27th in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(SP) Nick Martinez, $21.050M (qualifying offer)
OF) Austin Hays, $5M
(SP) Scott Barlow, $2.5M

Via Trade
(SP) Brady Singer
(2B) Gavin Lux
(RP) Taylor Rogers
(C) Jose Trevino

Prospects/Farm System

The Reds farm system currently ranks 10th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Rhett Lowder (P). This is a pool flush with pitching, especially starting pitchers, but could use a few more impact bats as the Reds look to push toward contention.

Top 100 Prospects
(SP) Chase Burns, (SP) Rhett Lowder, (2B) Sal Stewart, (3B) Cam Collier, (SS) Edwin Arroyo

2025 Storylines

• Will new manager Terry Francona bring a little more magic to this young team?
• The Reds lost 4 significant relievers this winter and only replaced about half of that production on paper. Still work to do?
• Can a young OF core (Hays, Friedl, Fraley, Fairchild) develop into an MLB-producing group? They combined for a 26th ranked 1.7 WAR in 2024.
• Are we on the cusp of an Elly De La Cruz MVP-candidacy season, and the next massive MLB extension?

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers easily won the NL Central in 2024, posting 93 wins against an 18th highest $162M tax payroll last season. They’ve trimmed down financially quite a bit heading into 2025, currently projecting toward a $131M CBT payroll (23rd in MLB).

2025 Projections

81 wins, 2nd in the NL Central

Notable Subtractions

Adames becomes the new centerpiece in San Francisco, to be replaced by youngster Joey Ortiz in Milwaukee going forward. It’s an upgrade defensively, but quite a drop-off at the plate currently speaking. The big, though expected, move came in swapping closer Devin Williams to the Yankees, officially handing the keys to the role over to Trevor Megill for the upcoming season.

(SS) Willy Adames
(C/DH) Gary Sanchez
(SP) Frankie Montas, Colin Rea
(RP) Devin Williams, Joe Ross, Hoby Milner, Bryse Wilson

Notable Additions

It’s been a winter of subtraction for the Brewers who added a few minor-league level players on near-minimum salaries, and acquired SP Nestor Cortes from NY in the Devin Williams swap. If they’re in the mix come July, this is a team poised to be active at the deadline in order to bulk up for the stretch run.

The Brewers spent $2.6M in free agency, 29th in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(SP) Elvin Rodriguez, $900,000
(RP) Grant Wolfram, $760,000

Via Trade
(SP) Nestor Cortes
(RP) Grant Anderson

Prospects/Farm System

The Brewers farm system currently ranks 9th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Jesus Made (SS). Milwaukee continues to use both the International pool and strong drafting habits to keep themselves near the top of the league from a prospect standpoint, and are certainly reaping some of those benefits with the likes of Jackson Chourio at the MLB level.

Top 100 Prospects
(C) Jefferson Quero, (SS) Jesus Made, (SS) Cooper Pratt, (P) Jacob Misiorowski

2025 Storylines

• Will their win total and respective place in the standings mimic a “subtraction-first” offseason?
• If the wheels fall off early, will the Brewers rip this roster down to studs? (1B) Rhys Hoskins, (SP) Aaron Civale, (SP) Freddy Peralta, (SP) Nestor Cortes are all fairly obvious trade-away candidates.
• Jackson Chourio gave us our first sniff at the production he can provide. Will the 21-year-old find another gear in 2025?

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates found themselves in the NL Central basement yet again in 2024, posting the 26th highest tax payroll at just under $123M. They’ve gone young and cheap again this winter, heading toward 2025 with a $110M projected payroll, 26th in MLB, and $131M under the $241M threshold.

2025 Projections

77 wins, 5th in the NL Central

Notable Subtractions

Pittsburgh put their stamp on the offseason early, non-tendering notable players De La Cruz & Joe, turning to cheaper, more short-term options in each case.

(OF) Connor Joe
(OF) Bryan De La Cruz
(SP) Luis Ortiz
(RP) Aroldis Chapman

Notable Additions

The big add here is Horwitz, though he’ll miss a few months after undergoing wrist surgery this month. The 27-year-old has 5+ years of team control ahead of him still, and could quickly become a piece of this core lineup going forward.

The Pirates spent $19.95M in free agency, 22nd in MLB.

Via Free Agency
(DH) Andrew McCutchen, $5M
(OF) Tommy Pham, $4.025M
(RP) Caleb Ferguson, $3M
(2B) Adam Frazier, $1.525M
(RP) Tim Mayza, $1.150M

Via Trade
(1B) Spencer Horwitz
(RP) Peter Strzelecki

Prospects/Farm System

The Pirates farm system currently ranks 16th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect Bubba Chandler (P). Pittsburgh remains flush with young pitching talent, but has little to say in terms of up-and-coming bats to make this a productive, winning lineup anytime soon.

Top 100 Prospects
(SP) Bubba Chandler, (SS) Konnor Griffin, (SP) Thomas Harrington, (2B) Termarr Johnson

2025 Storylines

• Pittsburgh entered the winter with the most exciting young player (Paul Skenes) and did little to nothing to build around him - especially as he offers maximum financial value.
• Recent deals for Mitch Keller & Bryan Reynolds were certainly a step in the right direction for this franchise, but until they get serious from all avenues (free agency, veteran extensions, large-scale trades), they’ll be categorized as not having done enough.
• Will Skenes get a full workload in 2025 - and remain healthy during it? Will the Pirates aggressively try to sign their golden goose?
• Can CF/SS Oniel Cruz put in a healthy campaign and put himself back in the category of one of MLB’s bright young stars?

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals tied with CHC for 2nd in the NL Central last season, boasting a 14th-ranked $207M tax payroll throughout the 2024 season. They’ve trimmed back significantly this past winter, heading into 2025 with a $158M projected payroll, 18th in MLB.

2025 Projections

79 wins, 3rd in the NL Central

Notable Subtractions

Goldschmidt leaves for NY, allowing Willson Contreras a chance to move into the first base spot on a regular basis. St. Louis spent the better part of 4 months trying to add 3B Nolan Arenado to this list, but haven’t come to trade terms for the time being.

(1B) Paul Goldschmidt
(RP) Andrew Kittredge

Notable Additions

None. The answer here is none. The Cardinals haven’t added a single player via trade or free agency thus far.

Via Free Agency
N/A

Via Trade
N/A

Prospects/Farm System

The Cardinals farm system currently ranks 18th according to Baseball America, led by top prospect JJ Wetherhold (SS). There’s a good mix of hitting and pitching in the system, and their current Top 100 prospects are a star SS, and two top of the rotation projected starting pitchers. There’s a path forward here for sure.

Top 100 Prospects
(SS) JJ Wetherholt, (SP) Quinn Mathews, (SP) Tink Hence

2025 Storylines

• How long will it take St. Louis to find the right mix of retained salary/trade price to get Arenado out the door?
• Closer Ryan Helsley is a pending UFA after 2025. The Cardinals will want to maximize his trade value as soon as possible.
• All things considered, and despite a complete zero in offseason adding, this is still a legitimate division contending team. Their “rebuild on the fly” might make for interesting midseason decisions.

17 MLB players exchanged numbers at the January 9th deadline. Spotrac details the results of each case as we conclude the 2025 MLB arbitration period.

RELATED: 2025 Arbitration Tracker

Kyle Tucker (OF, CHC)

Avoided Arbitration;  1 yr / $16,500,000

Player Filed: $17,500,000 /  Team Filed: $15,000,000 / Difference: $2,500,000

Tucker was traded to Chicago entering his final year of team control. The two sides commenced their relationship by exchanging salary figures but ultimately avoided arbitration on a one year deal. That’s a rare result in the ‘file and trial’ era as most of these go to a hearing or get settled as extensions. Players and teams have swapped salaries 73 times over the last three seasons with only Tucker and Gleyber Torres agreeing on one year contracts. The gap between these filings was the largest since 2023 when Tucker (with Houston) and Bo Bichette both filed $7.5M against $5M. The Cubs last arbitration hearing was in 2021 when they lost to Ian Happ.

Nathaniel Lowe (1B, TEX)

LOST ARBITRATION HEARING; 1 yr, $10,300,000

Player Filed: $11,100,000 /  Team Filed: $10,300,000 / Difference: $800,000

Washington traded for Lowe this offseason and welcomed him with an arbitration hearing which was their first since 2019. That might be unimportant but it could be an early indication of his inevitable free agency in 2027. Either way, Lowe is due for a sizable raise from the $7.5M he took home last season. His 2025 salary ranks 5th highest among first baseman with similar service time behind only Vlad Guerrero Jr., Pete Alonso, Jose Abreu and Chris Davis. 

Michael King (SP, SD)

Avoided Arbitration + Mutual option;  1 yr / $7,750,000

2025: $4M ($1M base + $3M signing bonus)
2026: $15M Mutual option ($3.75M buyout)

Player Filed: $8,800,000 / Team Filed: $7,325,000 / Difference: $1,475,000

The unique structure of this saves the Padres some cash in 2025 as they attempt to contend while evening out the payroll. The Mutual option is a technicality so consider this a one year guarantee. King will earn $4M this year ($1M base / $3M signing bonus) and the balance will pay via buyout ($3.75M) once the option is officially declined. It has now been over a decade since the Padres last hearing with Andrew Cashner in 2014.

William Contreras (C, MIL)

Avoided Arbitration + Club option;  1 yr / $6,100,000

2025: $6M
2026: $12M Club option ($100k buyout)

Player Filed: $6,500,000 / Team Filed: $5,600,000 / Difference: $900,000

Contreras is in uncharted arbitration territory at the position. His guarantee is the highest ARB1 (non Super Two) salary for a catcher and 8th including all batters. The Club option value is his 2026 ceiling so Contreras might need a third straight MVP caliber season to make that relevant. Otherwise, Milwaukee won’t hesitate to decline the option and reestablish his value in arbitration as they did with Devin Williams this year.

Luis Rengifo (3B, LAA)

WON Arbitration Hearing: 1 yr / $5,950,000

2025: $5,950,000
2026: UFA

Player Filed: $5,950,000 / Team Filed: $5,800,000 / Difference: $150,000

Rengifo beat the Angels for the second time in three years bringing his arbitration earnings total to $13.65M. He was on pace for multiple career highs (AVG, R, RBI, SB) before a July wrist injury forced season-ending surgery. His shifting role as a super utility almost certainly cost him money throughout the process but we’ll get a better idea of his true value once he hits free agency next offseason.

Jarren Duran (OF, BOS)

Avoided arbitration + Club option; 1 yr / $3,850,000

2025: $3.75M
2026: $8M Club option ($100k buyout)

Player Filed: $4,000,000 / Team Filed: $3,500,000 / Difference: $500,000

His 2025 salary ranks 5th among first year Super Two outfielders behind only Bellinger ($11.5M) Soto ($8.5M) Arozarena ($4.5M) and Springer ($3.9M). It puts Duran on pace for a 2026 arbitration value in the range of $7-9M. The Club option can escalate from $8M to $12M based on MVP voting although a 25-50% increase could inflate the price beyond his ceiling arbitration comps. Boston is basically protected from an outlier season in either direction. They can decline if the option value jumps too much OR Duran underperforms.

Jorge Mateo (SS, BAL)

Avoided arbitration + Club option; 1 yr / $3,550,000

2025: $3.55M
2026: $5.5M Club option ($500k incentives)

Player Filed: $4,000,000 / Team Filed: $3,100,000 / Difference: $900,000

Mateo has stuck on this roster despite the Orioles pipeline of younger talent. It’s evidence they value his versatility (2B,SS,OF) which is hard to replicate at a similar cost. Baltimore also added an extra year of team control which is a similar strategy used last offseason with Ryan O’Hearn who is now back on a Club option. Baltimore had the most eligible players (12) but successfully avoided arbitration with that entire group.

Brendan Donovan (OF, STL)

LOST Arbitration Hearing; 1 yr / $2,850,000

Player Filed: $3,300,000 /  Team Filed: $2,850,000 / Difference: $450,000

They received opposite rulings but Donovan will earn just $100k less than teammate Lars Nootbaar. His ARB1 salary slots between previous super utility players Luis Rengifo ($2.3M) and Tommy Edman ($4.2M) which puts Donovan on pace to make around $12M total across the next two seasons. The Cardinals lost their other two cases that went to hearings.

Lars Nootbaar (OF, STL)

WON ARBITRATION HEARING; 1 yr / $2,950,000

Player Filed: $2,950,000 /  Team Filed: $2,450,000 / Difference: $500,000

Nootbaar received a fortunate ruling in his first trip through arbitration. He’s productive when he plays but has struggled with injuries through his first four seasons. His ARB1 salary slots just behind outfielders Matt Vierling ($3.005M) and Brandon Marsh ($3M) who avoided arbitration earlier this offseason.

Alex Vesia (RP, LAD)

Avoided arbitration + Club option;  1 yr / 2,300,000

2025: $2.25M
2026: $3.55M Club option ($50k buyout)

Player Filed: $2,350,000 / Team Filed: $2,050,000 / Difference: $300,000

This guarantee is just under their ask but the Club option will cost Vesia his final year of arbitration eligibility.  The Dodgers have avoided arbitration with all eligible players for the fifth consecutive season. Their last hearings were with Joc Pederson and Pedro Baez in 2020.

Andre Pallante (SP, STL)

WON ARBITRATION SETTLEMENT; 1 yr, $2,100,000

Player Filed: $2,100,000 /  Team Filed: $1,925,000 / Difference: $175,000

This arbitration class had 85 players in their first year of eligibility with 27 of those qualifying for Super Two Status. Pallante was the lone Super Two case that went to an arbitration hearing. His $2.1M salary will fall just below fellow Super Two pitchers Ben Lively ($2.25M) and Bailey Falter ($2.222M) who had previously avoided arbitration.

Mark Leiter Jr. (RP, NYY)

LOST Arbitration Hearing;  1 yr / $2,050,000

Player Filed: $2,500,000 / Team Filed: $2,050,000 / Difference: $450,000

Leiter Jr. (34) was the oldest player to exchange numbers at the deadline. Unfortunately his arbitration earning potential is limited by overall role and usage which translates to more Holds than Saves. This was the Yankees first hearing since Dellin Betances in 2017.

Mickey Moniak (OF, LAA)

WON Arbitration Hearing; $2,000,000

Player Filed: $2,000,000 / Team Filed: $1,500,000 / Difference: $500,000

Moniak won despite a significant step back (79 wRC+) from his breakout 2023 season. The higher starting point in his first year of arbitration might not impact future earnings if he’s limited to a fourth outfielder role this season but it’s a sizable raise nonetheless. The Angels have had at least one arbitration each of the last three seasons.

Dennis Santana (RP, PIT)

LOST Arbitration Hearing; $1,400,000

Player Filed: $2,100,000 / Team Filed: $1,400,000 / Difference: $700,000

Santana was DFA’d by the Yankees after a disastrous start but the Pirates claimed him and a pitch mix change helped unlock a promising second half. But that stretch wasn’t enough to overcome his otherwise inconsistent career and the arbitration panel sided with Pittsburgh. Santana needs to replicate those results over a full season to build a stronger case heading into his final year of arbitration eligibility in 2026. 

Taylor Walls (SS, TBR)

Avoided arbitration + Club option;  1 yr / $1,400,000

2025: $1.35M
2026: $2.45M Club option ($50k buyout)

Player Filed: $1,575,000 / Team Filed: $1,300,000 / Difference: $275,000

Walls’ deal correlates with newly acquired free agent Ha-Seong Kim. The former will start 2025 at shortstop while the latter recovers from offseason shoulder surgery but Kim has a 2026 Player option that could affect how the Rays handle their Club option with Walls. Either way he’s under team control through 2027. Tampa Bay had been to six hearings over the prior two seasons but successfully avoided arbitration with this year's group of players.

Jose Quijada (RP, LAA)

Avoided arbitration + Club option;  1 yr / $1,075,000

2025: $1.075M
2026: $3.75M Club option

Player Filed: $1,140,000 / Team Filed: $975,000 / Difference: $165,000

This agreement lands just above the midpoint but gives the Angels control over his final year of arbitration eligibility. That might not matter here considering the price of the 2026 Club option. Quijada missed the start of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery but the lefty reliever should serve a more prominent role in 2025.

Johan Oviedo (SP, PIT)

LOST Arbitration Hearing; $850,000

Player Filed: $1,150,000 / Team Filed: $850,000 / Difference: $300,000

Oviedo missed the entire 2024 season (Tommy John surgery) and his 2025 role remains uncertain so this outcome isn’t too surprising. He’s under control for two more years and can reestablish his value with a return to pre-injury form. The Pirates have now won all four of their arbitration hearings since 2015.

The Boston Red Sox made the latest splash in MLB Free Agency, locking in INF Alex Bregman to a 3 year, $120M contract. The deal includes $40M salaries each year, though a significant portion (reportedly around $10M per season) is expected to be deferred. Bregman will have the ability to opt-out after 2025 & 2026, giving him a chance to re-hit the open market next winter based on his status. Bregman is expected to play 2B for the Red Sox in 2025.

Thursday (1pm ET) was the deadline for arbitration-eligible players and teams to agree on a 2025 contract before exchanging salary figures.

A majority of the 201 eligible players agreed to terms but 17 did not and subsequently exchanged salaries. The two sides can continue negotiations after the salary exchange deadline.

RELATED: 2025 Arbitration Salary Tracker

17 Arbitration Filings

CHC - Kyle Tucker (OF)
Player Filed: $17,500,000 /  Team Filed: $15,000,000 / Difference: $2,500,000

WSH - Nathaniel Lowe (1B)
Player Filed: $11,100,000 / Team Filed: $10,300,000 / Difference: $800,000

SDP - Michael King (SP)
Player Filed: $8,800,000 / Team Filed: $7,325,000 / Difference: $1,475,000

MIL - William Contreras (C)
Player Filed: $6,500,000 / Team Filed: $5,600,000 / Difference: $900,000

LAA - Luis Rengifo (3B)
Player Filed: $5,950,000 / Team Filed: $5,800,000 / Difference: $150,000

BOS - Jarren Duran (OF)
Player Filed: $4,000,000 / Team Filed: $3,500,000 / Difference: $500,000

BAL - Jorge Mateo (SS)
Player Filed: $4,000,000 / Team Filed: $3,100,000 / Difference: $900,000

STL - Brendan Donovan (OF)
Player Filed: $3,300,000 / Team Filed: $2,850,000 / Difference: $450,000

STL - Lars Nootbaar (OF)
Player Filed: $2,950,000 / Team Filed: $2,450,000 / Difference: $500,000

NYY - Mark Leiter Jr. (RP)
Player Filed: $2,500,000 / Team Filed: $2,050,000 / Difference: $450,000

LAD - Alex Vesia (RP)
Player Filed: $2,350,000 / Team Filed: $2,050,000 / Difference: $300,000

STL - Andre Pallante (SP)
Player Filed: $2,100,000 / Team Filed: $1,925,000 / Difference: $175,000

PIT - Dennis Santana (RP)
Player Filed: $2,100,000 / Team Filed: $1,400,000 / Difference: $700,000

LAA - Mickey Moniak (OF)
Player Filed: $2,000,000 / Team Filed: $1,500,000 / Difference: $500,000

TBR - Taylor Walls (SS)
Player Filed: $1,575,000 / Team Filed: $1,300,000 / Difference: $275,000

PIT - Johan Oviedo (SP)
Player Filed: $1,150,000 / Team Filed: $850,000 / Difference: $300,000

LAA - Jose Quijada (RP)
Player Filed: $1,140,000 / Team Filed: $975,000 / Difference: $165,000

Spotrac details the largest free agent signings and contract extensions across MLB throughout the 2025 offseason.


RELATED: MLB Free Agency Tracker

2B Thairo Estrada signed a 1 year, $3.25 million free agent contract in Colorado.

The 28-year-old earned $4.1M last season in San Francisco, but was outrighted and eventually released early this offseason. He’ll now see $2.75M in 2025, with a $750,000 buyout available on an undisclosed 2026 mutual option with the Rockies.

RP Yimi Garcia returned to Toronto on a 2 year, $15 million free agent contract.

The Blue Jays actually traded Garcia to Seattle at this past deadline, securing two minor leaguers in the process. The 34-year-old returns on his biggest contract to date, and projects to be vying for Toronto’s 9th inning role this spring.

SP Nathan Eovaldi returned to Texas on a 3 year, $75 million free agent contract

The 34-year-old declined a $20M player option last month to reenter the open market, but found his way back to the Rangers with a $75M guarantee under his belt. Eovaldi projects to sit atop the Texas rotation as of now, with Jacob deGrom, Jon Gray, & Tyler Mahle falling in behind him.

The $75M guarantee ensures that the former 11th round pick will have earned over $185M in his MLB career through 2027.

SP Max Fried joined the Yankees on an 8 year, $218 million free agent contract. 

The 30-year-old has had at least one injured list stint in every season since 2018, including a three week period last year due to forearm irritation. Injury is the major red flag here, but the ceiling still remains sky high, and the Yankees are putting all of their chips in on him, handing Friend the largest total value contract for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history. The contract also contains a full no trade clause throughout its duration.

Current Yankees Starting Rotation

OF Mike Tauchman signed a 1 year, $1.95 million contract with the White Sox.

Tauchman heads to the north side of the city after being non-tendered by the Cubs a few weeks back. The White Sox locked the 34-year-old into the same salary he earned in 2024, though he can increase that by $1M based on TBD incentives, and another $250,000 if he’s traded this season.

Full Mike Tauchman Contract

SP Alex Cobb joined the Tigers on a 1 year, $15 million free agent contract.

Cobb went through three separate stints on the injured list with San Francisco/Cleveland last season, so durability is certainly top of mind for the now 37-year-old. Cobb figures to slot into the middle of the Tigers starting rotation.

The contract can max out at $17M based on Cobb pitching 140, then 150 innings in the upcoming season.

Full Alex Cobb Contract

RP Jordan Romano signed a 1 year, $8.5 million free agent contract with the Phillies

The somewhat surprising non-tender out of Toronto quickly found work in Philly, where he currently slots in as the 9th inning reliever for 2025. The 31-year-old can add another $500,000 to this deal if he works through 60 innings this season.

Full Jordan Romano Contract

RP Blake Treinen returned to the Dodgers on a 2 year, $22 million contract.

Treinen returns to LA, where he played out 2024 on a $1M salary as he worked himself back to full health. The 36-year-old gave the Dodgers 50 appearances last season, performing well enough to garner the biggest contract of his career this winter.

OF Juan Soto signed an historic 15 year, $765 million free agent contract with the New York Mets.

Steve Cohen simply wasn’t going to lose this war, even as 3 other teams dipped their toes into the $700M+ pool. While full terms aren’t yet available, we do know that Soto will receive a record-breaking $75 million signing bonus, a full no trade clause, and the ability to opt-out of the contract after the 2029 season. However, the Mets can void that opt-out by adding $40M to the 10 remaining seasons of the contract ($4M per year).

Unlike many of the blockbuster contracts being signed around the league, none of Juan Soto’s $765 million contract contains deferred compensation, making him a $51M per year player at present day value.

OF Michael Conforto joined the Dodgers on a 1 year, $17 million free agent contract

Injuries continue to devalue Conforto’s overall resume, but the final numbers for 2024 in San Francisco were promising (27 doubles, 20 homers, 66 RBIs, 1.34 WAR). He projects as the Opening Day starting left fielder for LAD as of now, though a reunion with Teoscar Hernandez could very much change that.

An undisclosed portion of Conforto’s $8.5M salary is deferred, while the other half will be paid out to Conforto in the form of a signing bonus.

C Gary Sanchez signed a 1 year, $8.5 million free agent contract with Baltimore.

Sanchez spent twice as many 2024 games as a DH (46) than he did a C (28) while also plugging a hole at 1B every now and then for the Brewers last season. He’ll likely do the same for the Orioles in 2025, giving Adley Rutschman time out of his crouching stance as much as possible, primarily speaking.

OF Tyler O’Neill joined the Orioles on a 3 year, $49.5 million free agent contract

Despite 3 stints in the injured list, O’Neill had one of his best overall seasons to date with Boston in 2024, hitting the open market at a strong selling point. Baltimore bought in, bringing in O’Neill as a likely every day left fielder.

The deal includes $16.5 million in 2025, after which the 29-year-old can opt-out of the remaining 2 years, $33 million. If not, it’s a flat $16.5M each of 2026 & 2027 as well.

Full Tyler O’Neill Contract

SS Willy Adames signed an historic 7 year, $182 million free agent contract with the Giants.

It’s the largest total value contract in San Francisco Giants history, surpassing Buster Posey’s $167M deal by $15M. It’s also a $5M raise over Dansby Swanson’s recent free agent contract with the Cubs (7 years, $177M), a clear focal point for Adames’ final cost.

The 29-year-old will secure a $22M signing bonus this year, and a full no trade clause throughout the life of the contract. Salary-wise the deal comes with $10M each of the next two seasons, then $28M for each of the final five.

Adames previously declined a Qualifying Offer so the Giants will forfeit their 2nd and 5th-round draft selections in 2025.

Full Willy Adames Contract

C Danny Jansen signed a 1 year, $8.5M free agent contract with Tampa Bay.

The 29-year-old backstop will earn an $8M salary in 2025, with a $500,000 buyout available on a $12M club option for 2026.

For now, Jansen projects to be Tampa Bay’s opening day starting catcher, though it’s fair to assume that Ben Rortvedt, who saw action in 112 games for TB last year, will also factor into the position.

Full Danny Jansen Contract

P Clay Holmes joins the Mets on a 3 year, $38 million free agent contract.

The story here isn’t so much the money, but the role that Holmes will be serving in Queens. The 31-year-old has been signed as a back-end of the Mets starting rotation player, making the transition over from a 9th-inning reliever for much of the past three seasons with the Yankees.

Contractually, Holmes will see $13M in 2025, another $13M for 2026, then holds a $12M player option in 2027 (no buyout).

Full Clay Holmes Contract

SP Shane Bieber returns to Cleveland on a 2 year, $26 million free agent contract.

Bieber’s final season before free agency was lost to elbow surgery, and he’s not likely to return to the mound until mid-2025, but the Guardians remain confident that he can anchor this young rotation when the time is right.

The 29-year-old will earn $10M in 2025, then holds a $16M player option for 2026 that includes a $4M buyout. If Bieber returns to top-level form to finish off 2024, he’ll almost certainly opt-out and reenter the open market next winter.

Full Shane Bieber Contract

SP Luis Severino signed a 3 year, $67 million contract with the Athletics

The surprise of the winter, the Athletics handed out the single largest contract in their franchise’s history. Severino leaves the Mets for a $10M signing bonus, $20M salary in 2025, $25M salary in 2026, and a $22M player option in 2027 (no buyout). The 30-year-old can opt-out after 2 years, $55M, and there’s a one-time $500,000 trade assignment bonus attached the contract as well.

Severino previously declined a Qualifying Offer so the Athletics will forfeit their third-round draft selection in 2025.

Full Luis Severino Contract

RP Aroldis Chapman signed a 1 year, $10.75 million contract with the Boston Red Sox.

Chapman gave the Pirates 68 appearances in 2024, finishing 18 games, striking out 98 batters in 61+ innings. He now joins forces with 35-year-old Liam Hendriks in Boston, and could have even more opportunities to close out games in the 2025 season.

The $10.75M guaranteed takes Chapman over $176M earned in 16 MLB seasons.

Full Aroldis Chapman Contract

C Kyle Higashioka signed a 2 year $13.5 million contract with the Texas Rangers.

Texas added depth to their catching room, bringing over the 34-year-old Higashioka from San Diego. He’ll earn $5.75M in 2025, $6.75M in 2026, and at least a $1M buyout on a $7M mutual option for 2027. With starting catcher Jonah Heim slated for an arbitration salary north of $5M, the Rangers will likely enter 2025 with one of the more expensive catching payrolls.

Full Kyle Higashioka Contract

SP Blake Snell signed a 5 year, $182 million free agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The deal includes a $52 million signing bonus and $66M of deferred compensation, lowering the CBT salary from $36.4M, down to $31.7M.

Snell will receive $65M in 2025 (more than double the $32M he earned from his 1 season in San Francisco last year), then $13M in each of 2026-2029. There’s a $10M conditional club option in place for 2030, but that only remains if Snell hasn’t been traded/claimed away from the Dodgers AND if Snell has a 90+ day stint on the injured list for an undisclosed specific injury (likely arm related).

The deferred money kicks in in 2035, paying out Snell $5.5M each year through 2046 (when he’ll be 53 years old).

The $182M total value contract ranks 4th among active starting pitchers, 9th all-time in that regard. Snell’s original $36.4M APY ranks 3rd, behind only Zack Wheeler ($42M), & Jacob deGrom ($37M).

At the time of this piece, the Dodgers current starting rotation now looks like:

UTL Tommy Edman signed a 5 year, $74 million extension with the Los Angeles Dodgers

The NLCS MVP was already under contract at $9.5 million for 2025, so this is technically a 4 year, $64.5 million new money contract. Edman will now see $22 million in 2025 thanks to a $17 million signing bonus & $5 million salary. From there, salaries increase to $12.25 million through 2029, and there’s a $13 million club option available in 2030 ($3 million buyout).

However, the Dodgers have deferred $25 million of salary ($6.25 million from each of 2026-2029) at 10 payments of $2.5 million each from 2035-2044. The move lowers Edman’s tax salary from $14.8 million down to $13.27 million.

In 153 regular season games last season, Edman was used at CF, SS, 3B, & 2B. He projects to be the Opening Day starting center fielder for LAD as of now.

SP Yusei Kikuchi joins the Angels on a 3 year, $63.675 million free agent contract

After a rough 2+ year stretch in Toronto, Kikuchi drastically changed his free agent image with a strong final two months in Houston following a deadline trade to the Astros. The Angels, who have purged a few starting pieces this offseason already, are now paying the 33-year-old as a top of their rotation (possibly even ace) player.

The deal includes a flat $21.225 million per year salary through 2027, with additional service payments for a trainer ($100,000), interpreter ($75,000), & US-Japan airline tickets ($50,000).

At the time of this piece, the Angels current starting rotation now looks like:

SP Frankie Montas joins the Mets on a 2 year, $34 million free agent contract

The 31-year-old starter has bounced around quite a bit over the past 3 seasons, and he declined a $20 million option with Milwaukee to hit the open market again this winter. He joins the Mets on a 2 year, $34 million deal that includes a player option for 2026, giving him the ability to control his destiny again next offseason.

The deal includes $17 million in each of the next two seasons, a slight upgrade from the $16 million he took home in 2024 ($14 million salary + a $2 million buyout on the declined option).

At the time of this piece, the Mets current starting rotation now looks like:

SP Matt Boyd signed a 2 year, $29 million free agent contract with the Chicago Cubs

After missing a year and a half (2023-2024) from Tommy John surgery, Boyd gave the Guardians 8 strong starts down the stretch, putting him in a nice spot to cash in this winter. The Cubs took the bait, handing Boyd a $29 million guarantee that includes a $2 million buyout on a mutual option for 2027.

The 33-year-old will earn $12.5 million this season ($7.5 million salary plus a $5 million signing bonus), $14.5 million in 2026, with a $15 million option for 2027 ($2 million buyout). The compensation is a huge upgrade for Boyd, who was given a league-minimum $740,000 contract from Cleveland as he rehabbed back to full health.

At the time of this piece, the Cubs current starting rotation now looks like:

It happened. After months of rumors stating that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen wouldn’t be underbid for prize free agent OF Juan Soto - rumor became reality on Sunday night.

The New York Mets and Juan Soto agreed to an historic 15 year, $765 million free agent contract that includes no deferred money, a $75M signing bonus, $15M of available escalators (TBD), and a player opt-out after the 2029 season that can be voided with an additional $40M guarantee. In other words - this is a $765M contract today, but could finish off as an $820M deal before it’s all said and done.

The Total Value

Soto’s $765 million base value guarantee is the largest in MLB history, surpassing Shohei Ohtani’s blockbuster contract with the Dodgers last winter. The previous high mark came from Mike Trout’s $426.5M extension in Los Angeles of Anaheim.

However, Ohtani’s deal in LA contains significant deferrals ($680M), lowering the present day value of the contract down to $460M (though it should be noted here that the player will still be earning all $700M). In this sense, Soto’s deal in Queens obliterates every one contract in MLB history.

Largest Total Value Contracts in MLB History
1. Juan Soto, $765M
2. Shohei Ohtani, $700M
3. Mike Trout, $426.5M
4. Mookie Betts, $365M
5. Aaron Judge, $360M

Complete MLB Contract Rankings

For the record, Soto’s 15 year, $765M contract is also the longest contract in MLB history, surpassing Fernando Tatis Jr.s’ 14 year contract in San Diego.

The Original Offer

Juab Soto was an international signing by the Washington Nationals back in 2015 to the tune of a $1.5M bonus. He would help take the Nats to a World Series Championship in 2019, prompting the organization to eventually lay down a $440M contract extension offer to Soto & agent Scott Boras. The deal would buy out the rest of Soto’s arbitration years at $54M, with 13 years, $386M built into the free agency portion of the contract.

Soto’s new deal with the Mets nearly doubles that output.

The Average/CBT Salary

From an average per year standpoint, Soto’s $51M to be earned trails only Ohtani’s $70M, who of course won’t be actually earning $70M per year at any point in time due to the 10-year deferral package.

Highest APY in MLB History
1. Shohei Ohtani, $70M*
2. Juan Soto, $51M
T3. Max Scherzer, $43.3M
T3. Justin Verlander, $43.3M
5. Zack Wheeler, $42M

*deferrals

Complete Contract APY Rankings

From a collective balance tax salary perspective, things end up a little bit different. As noted above, Ohtani’s deferrals lower his present day value, and subsequent tax salary, down from $700M/$70M to $460.08M/$46.08M. With no deferred compensation built into the Soto deal, his $51M now rises to the top of the list - by nearly $5M.

Highest CBT Salary in MLB History
1. Juan Soto, $51M
2. Shohei Ohtani, $46.08M
3. Zack Wheeler, $42M
4. Aaron Judge, $40M
5. Jacob deGrom, $37M

Complete Tax Salary Rankings

Soto’s $51M salary represents 21.1.% of the $241M MLB threshold for 2025.

The Opt-Out

Following the 2029 season (when Soto will have just turned 30-years-old), Juan Soto will have the ability to opt-out of the remaining 10 years, $460M.

The team will then have the ability to void that opt-out with an additional $40M guarantee ($4M added to each of the remaining 10 seasons). The Yankees had a similar setup with SP Gerit Cole, but the two sides decided to void the opt-out this past winter and focus on a new, tbd contract instead.

The Signing Bonus

Soto’s $75M signing bonus is by far the largest in league history, surpassing Mookie Betts’ $65M bonus in LA. The payout will help Soto from an income tax purpose in the state of NY, and it front-loads a total of $295M into the first 5 seasons of this contract.

Largest MLB Signing Bonuses
1. Juan Soto, $75M
2. Mookie Betts, $65M
3. Blake Snell, $52M
T4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, $50M
T4. Max Scherzer, $50M

Career Earnings

At the surface, adding $765M to Soto's previously earned $82.3M brings his career number over $847M. But that's likely only the start of this story, right? It seems hard to imagine that the opt-out/buyback in 2030 will happen, adding another $40M to Soto's bottom line. Now we're approaching $888M, and there appear to be incentives/escalators available that can get us into the $900M conversation before it's all said and done.

The only person even in this same stratosphere is of course Ohtani, who will have cashed in over $742M in his career once the deferrals are all paid out.

Final Thoughts

We’ll save our complete concluding thoughts until the full salary/escalator breakdown becomes available, but for now this is simply a wow. The bidding for Soto was large, historic, and surprisingly out loud. Numbers that were being floated around by league reporters wound up being 100% factual, with at least 4 teams willing to go into the $700M pool at one point in time.

The Mets - as was always the assumed case - simply came in with a final offer that couldn’t be matched, and the additional $40M opt-out void had to be the icing on the cake. Will this be the nail in the coffin to the next 2 decades of Mets offseason spending? Owner Steve Cohen’s pockets are deep enough to suggest no. After a botched first spending experience in 2022, this was always going to be the next big splash in Queens. If anything, the need to continue spending and bring a championship back to Flushing is now higher than ever, as this contract will be annually scrutinized if the success on the field doesn’t add up.

More to come as new details are confirmed.

The 2024 Mets were a bit of a revelation, turning a dreadful start into an NLCS appearance when it was all said and done. But the offseason is here and so too are a laundry list of decisions to make and holes to fill across the roster.

Spotrac dives into a positional breakdown of where the 2025 Mets stand currently, plus a look at an 8 player, $550M free agent plan that could act as a” Plan B” to one major Juan Soto contract this winter.

RELATED: 2025 MLB Free Agents

Position Players

In terms of everyday starters, only Pete Alonso is set to walk into free agency - though Jose Iglesias, J.D. Martinez, & Harrison Bader, all also headed to the open market, held large roles in 2024.

Alonso’s situation is completely fluid. It’s been reported that the Mets made a 7 year, $158M to their first baseman prior to the start of the 2024, and those same reports follow up that Alonso was in the market for an 8th year at the time. The nearly 30-year-old now hits the open market for the first time with a 6 year, $175M valuation in our system, though it’s largely believed that a multi-team bidding war can up this deal near $200M.

Elsewhere, outside of large contracts for SS Francisco Lindor (7 years, $224M remaining), & OF Brandon Nimmo (6 years, $121.5M remaining), the Mets starting lineup projects to be relatively inexpensive at the moment.

C: Francisco Alvarez (pre-arbitration)
1B: N/A
2B: Luisangel Acuna (pre-arbitration)
SS: Francisco Lindor: $32M
3B: Mark Vientos (pre-arbitration)
LF: Brandon Nimmo ($20.5M)
CF: Tyrone Taylor (estimated $3M)
RF: Starling Marte ($20.75M)
DH: Jeff McNeil ($15.75M)

The Starting Rotation

Decimated (on paper).

The Mets 2024 Opening Day Rotation
1. Kodai Senga

2. Jose Quintana

3. Luis Severino

4. Sean Manaea

5. Adrian Houser

Of this group, Senga missed nearly the entire season due to multiple injuries, but is under contract through 2027 (assuming he doesn’t opt-out after 2025). Houser was released in August after poor production & a bullpen stint. And the group of Quintana, Severino, & Manaea are all headed to free agency this week.

The Mets do have David Peterson under team control through 2026, & Tylor Megill under team control through 2027, but it’s safe to assume that NY will need to replace or re-sign at least two of these rotation spots for the upcoming season.

The Bullpen

Brooks Raley, Adam Ottavino, Phil Maton, & Ryne Stanek are all headed to free agency but the young group of Dedniel Nunez, Jose Butto, & Reed Garrett should all be 6th, 7th, & 8th inning options for 2025. There are 3-4 depth spots to add here, and David Stearns would be smart to handcuff Edwin Diaz with a viable 9th inning colleague (possibly even old friend Devin Williams), but it’s unlikely NY allocates a ton of offseason resources to this portion of their roster.

The Looming Offseason

It should come as no surprise that the Mets, and owner Steve Cohen, have been directly tied to Juan Soto’s free agency already. Cohen has already shown once that money is no object when it comes to building this team, and Soto represents one of the most attractive building blocks in MLB Free Agency history. In a recent piece, Spotrac predicted that the bidding war for Soto could ramp things up to a contract that reaches 12 years, $660M.

Let’s assume that - despite their best efforts - the Mets don’t win the war for Soto, and instead project another way they can spend $500M+ this winter.

Sign SP Corbin Burnes: 7 years, $215M

Burnes holds a 6 year, $180M valuation in our system for his first trip to free agency, so any type of multi-team bidding war should keep him at the $30M+ per year mark rather easily. If the Yankees opt to keep Gerrit Cole off of the open market, Burnes (and to some degree Blake Snell) will be the big fish in the sea.

Re-Sign 1B Pete Alonso: 6 years, $174M

The highest average paid first baseman on a multi-year contract is Freddie Freeman at $27M per year. At $29M per year, Alonso easily eclipses that, while locking in more than the Mets reportedly offered him last spring (7 years, $158M).

Re-Sign SP Sean Manaea: 4 years, $75M

Manaea carries a $16.1M valuation in our system as he heads back to the open market, but he rose to become NYM’s ace for much of 2024. A newly crafted delivery & arm angle has him pitching with more confidence and efficiency. There will be a team or two looking to make this one of their big splashes this winter, but the Mets should have no trouble matching any offer.

Sign OF Tyler O’Neill: 3 years, $50M

Despite a bit of a banged up season O’Neill put together one of his better production years to date in Boston, collecting 18 doubles, 31 homers, and an .847 OPS. The Mets will watch Harrison Bader & Jesse Winker hit the open market, while 36-year-old Starling Marte enters a contract year and most likely can’t be counted on for 150+ games.

Sign RP David Robertson: 1 year, $12.5M

The 39-year-old spent half a season with the Mets back in 2023, and he could prove to be a perfect handcuff option for the sometimes maligned Edwin Diaz. He’s still producing at a high level despite his age, so this won’t be a “value” signing by any regards.

Sign RP Blake Treinen: 1 year, $12M + a $14M club option

If you can’t beat em’, steal from em’. Treinen returned to strong form in his 50 appearances for the Dodgers after two straight seasons lost to injury. The 36-year-old still has swing and miss stuff, and will bring a wealth of big-game pedigree to this Mets bullpen.

Sign SP Matthew Boyd: 1 year, $10M + a $12.5M club option

Boyd spent the last half of 2024 in Cleveland working his way back from 2023 Tommy John Surgery. He had all the signs of a player ready to resurrect his career, which means the Guardians will be looking to keep him at a relatively small-market price to gain value. The Mets can simply outbid here with hope that Boyd can fill the Quintana/Severino role for much of 2025.

Re-Sign Jose Iglesias: 1 year, $1.5M

This one seems like a no-brainer, all things considered. Iglesias, who can play plus defense all over the infield, proved to be a timely hitter, and a much-needed midseason spark (on and off the field) for a flailing organization. The projection here brings the 34-year-old back on the same salary as 2024, but a nice incentive package would certainly help sweeten the pot.

Guaranteed Total: $550M

RELATED: 2025 New York Mets Tax Payroll

As MLB officially flips the switch to offseason-mode, the focus immediately turns to Juan Soto, the most exciting free agent since: well Shohei Ohtani 12 months ago. We’ll take a few moments here to dive into a calculated value & predicted outcome for Soto’s free agent journey over the next few weeks.

Calculated Valuation(s)

Using Spotrac’s market value analysis (which pairs the two-year production prior to the contract of four comparable players against Soto’s last two years of production), we’re given the highest calculated valuation in our history:

14 years, $513,842,854

However, we’ve opted not to use Shohei Ohtani as a variable for this valuation for the simple reason that Soto didn’t get the Padres/Yankees 298 innings on the mound. If we factor in Ohtani’s $70M per year contract to this math, Soto’s value soars to:

14 years, $647,090,402

This is a 26% increase over our initial valuation. Let’s cut that in half to account for the lack of pitching from Soto. 

14 years, $580,642,425

Is it enough? The simple answer is no. This is what the math is telling us to report. But there aren't enough comparable players for Juan Soto. He's a rare combination of age (just turned 26) plus multi-tool production. We'll try to poke some holes into this process to get us to a number that fits a little better in this current climate.

A Logical Outcome

It’s never best practice in our opinion to give too much attention to the APY (average per year) metric, especially as it pertains to finding a player’s overall value (term & guarantee generally drive the process), but in a league like MLB that utilizes a luxury tax payroll that derives from the average salary, it’s at least in consideration.

MLB’s Highest Tax Salaries
1. Shohei Ohtani, $46.08M (10 years)
2. Zack Wheeler, $42M (3 years)
3. Aaron Judge, $40M (9 years)
4. Jacob deGrom, $37M (5 years)
5. Gerrit Cole, $36M (9 years)

It’s important to make note of the contract length here, as it’s the dividing factor that gives us the APY. Generally speaking, the top APY contracts in MLB have come from shorter term deals. Judge was able to sneak an extra year out of the Yankees, but if Soto is in consideration for a contract of 13-15 years, we’re talking about an historic combination of length & substance.

MLB’s Longest Active Contracts (APY)
1. Fernando Tatis Jr.: 14 years ($24.2M)
T2. Bryce Harper: 13 years ($25.3M)
T2. Giancarlo Stanton: 13 years ($25M)
T4. Julio Rodriguez: 12 years ($17.4M)
T4. Mike Trout: 12 years ($35.5M)
T4. Mookie Betts: 12 years ($30.4M)
T4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto: 12 years, ($27M)

Again, we see very little evidence that MLB teams have been willing to go mega-long-term with a mega-APY simultaneously. The obvious comparable here is Mike Trout, who signed his 12 year, $426.5 million extension back in March of 2019. Let’s break that down a bit:

The CBT threshold in 2019 was $206,000,000.
The CBT threshold in 2025 is $241,000,000.
This represents a 17% increase.

If we tack that 17% onto Trout’s $35,541,667 APY, we’re given a $41,584,000 figure. Trout signed for 12 years, so Soto would be looking at a 12 year, $500M contract in this comparison. But it’s largely expected that Soto’s free agent deal will come in at the 14-15 year range.

Will MLB teams be willing to keep this type of historic APY at that length? It only takes one, and on Day 1 of the 2024 offseason, it’s been reported that 11 teams have already reached out with interest in discussing a contract for Soto. That’s almost 40% of the league.

Generally speaking, especially as it pertains to free agency, we’re inclined to dial back a valuation or prediction that can often be “hot-stoved” out of proportion. But that’s just simply not the case here. The mathematical values come in (clearly) low because we simply don’t have enough variables that carry the age & across-the-board production that Soto brings to the table this winter. So in light of this, we’re going to buck our usual trepidation - and predict BIG.

A Final Prediction

Juan Soto is barely 26 years old (October 25th), and he’s already earned $82.3M on the field - without ever signing a multi-year contract. Ohtani’s 10 year contract takes him through his age 38 season, and guarantees him $742.2M of career earnings when it’s all said and done.

For Soto to eclipse this, he’ll need a contract that amounts to $660M in total value. If we align the landing age (38) with Ohtani, this would mean a 13 year contract for Soto, or an APY of $50.7M. A 14-year contract would chime in at $47.1M, running through his age-39 season, while a 15 year deal would mean a nice, clean APY of $44M, making Soto 40-years old at its completion. But we’re going to zag here at the final hour:

Ohtani’s deal exists because of an insane amount of deferred compensation ($680M). Soto and his super agent Scott Boras aren’t expected to agree to something that drastic, but it would be reckless to assume that deferred payments won’t at least be a conversation during this free agent negotiation process. So here’s our final offer, all elements included:

12 years, $660,000,000 ($215M deferred)

Chas McCormick (OF, Astros)

Projected 2025 Salary: $4.8M

After a mini-breakout in 2023, McCormick’s 2024 was a veritable disaster, compounded by a finger injury down the stretch. If he’s not moved (or non-tendered), McCormick’s time as an everyday player could be depleted in Houston. He’s arbitration-eligible through 2026.

Mason Miller (RP, Athletics)

Projected 2025 Salary: $800,000

The 26-year-old closer is still the pre-arbitration portion of his team control, with 5 more years remaining before free agency. It’ll take an A++ offer to get the Athletics to pick up the phone and move on from this kind of financial value.

Brent Rooker (OF/DH, Athletics)

Projected 2025 Salary: $3.5M

Rooker has 3 more years of team control remaining, so the Athletics don’t need to be in a rush to move him this winter. The 29-year-old has 46 doubles and 69 homers across his past two seasons, and would be a strong addition to the middle of a batting lineup. He’s a minus defender, and strikes out at a pretty aggressive rate, but if the A’s are willing to listen, there will be offers this offseason.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B, Blue Jays)

Projected 2025 Salary: $28.8M

The 25-year-old rounded back into form in 2024 (30 HRs, 103 RBIs, 6.17 WAR), putting him in the driver’s seat for a bigtime payday over the course of the next 15 months. Is he part of Toronto’s long-term plans? Are the Blue Jays willing to keep the gas pedal down in 2025? If either of those answers are no, shopping Vlad Jr. ahead of his final season of team control is a must.

Bo Bichette (SS, Blue Jays)

2025 Salary: $16.5M

Bichette struggled mightily in 2025 (-0.26 WAR), posting career lows across the board. He’s fully guaranteed at $16.5M for the upcoming season before heading to the open market for the first time next winter. This would be a sell-low move for Toronto right now, who may be better off hoping he can return to form early on, before dangling the 26-year-old around the trade deadline.

Jorge Soler (OF/DH, Braves)

2025 Salary: $13M

Soler was (re)acquired at the deadline to fill the void left by Ronald Acuna Jr.’s long-term injury. He produced admirably, but is likely too expensive to keep as a depth piece going forward. His ability to produce with power should make him attractive enough to move this winter. Soler holds a $13M salary in each of 2025 & 2026.

Devin Williams (RP, Brewers)

2025 Salary: $10.5M Club Option (arbitration-eligible)

Williams became the topic of trade rumors immediately following his disastrous postseason run - but that doesn’t make this a likely move. The 30-year-old is a pending free agent after 2025, and despite the ugly finish - is in line to cost a fortune going forward. But Milwaukee has a clear path to win the NL Central again in 2025, and keeping their closer in the fold only helps that.

Jordan Montgomery (SP, Diamondbacks)

2025 Salary: $22.5M Player Option

It’s unclear just how ugly things got behind the scenes between the D-Backs and Montgomery, who was relegated to the bullpen for much of 2024. It’s a veritable lock that he picks up his $22.5M option for 2025, but will Arizona look to flip the nearly 32-year-old thereafter?

Josh Naylor (1B, Guardians)

Projected 2025 Salary: $14.2M

Naylor popped 31 homers in 2024, a career-high, but still finds himself amidst trade rumors as the offseason approaches. His final year of arbitration comes with a sizable salary increase, and the Guardians are always conscious about budgeting properly in any given season. Naylor was a coveted trade candidate in the winter of 2023, so it’s safe to assume that he’ll have plenty of suitors again this time around.

Jesús Luzardo (SP, Marlins)

Projected 2025 Salary: $8.6M

Luzardo battled injury and poor results all season, so Miami would be selling him at a low point. However, the 27-year-old is arbitration-eligible through 2026, giving interested teams a chance to settle him into their rotation a bit with financial value.

Jeff McNeil (2B, Mets)

2025 Salary: $15.75M

This might be a bit of wishful thinking here, as McNeil hasn’t hit anywhere near consistent enough to justify his 4 year, $50M contract. He’s owed $15.75M each of 2025 & 2026, and the Mets have youngsters Luisangel Acuna & Ronny Mauricio ready to fill a 2B/OF spot next spring. If NY is willing to pay down some of the owed salary, there may be a trade partner or two out there.

Nick Castellanos (OF, Phillies)

2025 Salary: $20M

A worthy outfielder and power producer, Castellanos has been a fan-favorite for the better part of 3 seasons in Philly. But it stands to reason that Dave Dombrowski and company will look to shake up this roster at least a little bit. And oh by the way, an aggressive run at OF Juan Soto could also mean the need to free up both a roster spot and some salary.

Adolis García (OF, Rangers)

2025 Salary: $9.25M

After three straight seasons of both production & improvement, Garcia took a step back in 2024 (along with many Rangers). The Rangers have a few offseason holes to fill, so shedding a little salary elsewhere could be part of the process. Garcia is locked in at $9.25M through 2025, but then becomes arbitration-eligible for the final time again in 2026 before free agency in 2027.

Zack Littell (SP, Rays)

Projected 2025 Salary: $6M

The Rays have a rare surplus of starting pitching (assuming everyone returns to full health this winter). With the rest of the roster in a bit of turmoil, flipping an arm for a bat or two makes good business sense. Littell is entering his third and final arbitration season, and stands to be one of the pricier players for Tampa Bay in 2025.

Triston Casas (1B, Red Sox)

Projected 2025 Salary: $800,000

Casas has 4 years of team control remaining, including an extremely valuable pre-arbitration salary in 2025. A rib injury greatly limited his 2024 production, but this is a player who can go on a run and carry a team offensively at times. Boston has a logjam of left-handed hitters, a few really strong prospects ready to graduate to the show, and could use a bat for an arm swap this winter. Still, this move would be considered surprising, all things considered.

Jonathan India (2B, Reds)

2025 Salary: $5.45M

India’s been amidst trade rumors for awhile now, and went public with his desire for this Cincinnati front office to start writing checks to properly build up this roster. There’s enough smoke here again to think India could be shopped, though he does hold a final season of arbitration in 2026 before hitting the open market.

Cal Quantrill (SP, Rockies)

Projected 2025 Salary: $9.8M

Quantrill is entering his final year of arbitration, and the Rockies have already made public their plan to cut payroll for the upcoming season. Despite the Coors Field backdrop, Quantrill was efficient in 2024 and would slot in nicely as a #4 for many contending teams in 2025.

Austin Gomber (SP, Rockies)

Projected 2025 Salary: $5.2M

Gomber is entering his final year of arbitration, and represents a cheaper - though not as productive - option to teammate Cal Quantrill on the trade block. With that said, 2024 was a career year for Gomber, so it’s a good time to shop the nearly 31-year-old.

Brendan Rodgers (2B, Rockies)

Projected 2025 Salary: $6.8M

The 28-year-old former #3 overall pick really hasn’t hit his expected peak, especially at the plate. 2025 represents his final year of team control, so Colorado may be looking to pull back a little value this winter before it’s too late.

Garrett Crochet (SP, White Sox)

Projected 2025 Salary: $2.9M

When healthy, and it’s a big if, Crochet has proven to be one of the more efficient pitchers in the game (though we’re talking about just 32 career starts here). Chicago values him as an “ace”, so a trade for the 25-year-old - who has two arbitration years remaining - would likely bring back a blockbuster-type return.

Luis Robert Jr. (OF, White Sox)

Remaining Contract: 1 yr, $15M + 2 $20M Club Options

Robert is by far Chicago’s most productive bat, and his $15M salary for 2025 is second only to Andrew Benintendi’s $17.1M next season. The immediate plans for this franchise remain unknown, but until Chicago makes it clear that they’re back in spending mode, we’ll consider a trade of Robert for prospects one of the better possibilities of the winter.

As MLB flips into offseason mode, Spotrac offers a snapshot look at projected Opening Day 40-Man Tax Payrolls, arbitration salary totals, notable upcoming option decisions, & pending free agents for each team.

Baltimore Orioles

Projected 40-Man CBT: $103.8M (24th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 2 ($14.3M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 16 ($50.5M)
One of the better stories throughout much of 2024 completely combusted down the stretch, missing out on a division title, then being swept out of the Wild Card round. With that said, Gunnar Henderson is a cornerstone piece and Colton Cowser had his mini-breakout. However, Adley Rutschman slid back (again) offensively, there’s no 9th-inning reliever in sight, and Corbin Burnes, the only viable starter, is headed to the open market. O’s fans will be impatiently waiting for this new ownership group to open up their checkbooks.

Notable Options
Eloy Jimenez (DH, $16.5M Club), Seranthony Dominguez (RP, $8M Club), Ryan O'Hearn (1B, $8M Club), Danny Coulombe (RP, $4M Club), Cionel Perez (RP, $2.2M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Corbin Burnes (SP), Anthony Santander (OF), James McCann (C)

Boston Red Sox

Projected 40-Man CBT: $162.1M (15th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 7 ($95.5M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 3 ($11.7M)
Boston hit the All-Star break 10 games over .500, but predictably couldn’t sustain that level of play for the full season. However, this is a team that continues to get younger (and subsequently cheaper), and the Red Sox haven’t been shy about locking in their youth to mid-range extensions. With at least two top-tier prospects (Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer) ready to make the jump, Boston might smell blood a little bit right now, which could mean an offseason spending spree to plug as many holes as possible.

Notable Options
Rob Refsnyder (OF, $2.1M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Tyler O'Neill (OF), Nick Pivetta (SP), Kenley Jansen (RP), Lucas Sims (RP)

New York Yankees

Projected 40-Man CBT: $239.4M (4th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 5 ($122.5M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 11 ($42.3M)
The Yankees survived more than a few injuries throughout the regular season to garner another AL East title, and a trip to the World Series. The Soto/Judge/Stanton powered lineup certainly went as planned, but keeping it sustainable will take an extra $550M or so. Keeping Gerrit Cole off the open market will mean another $36M added to his contract, and Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, and 2-3 relievers need to be replaced this winter. Buckle up folks, we’re headed for a Yankees-of-old offseason.

Notable Options
Gerrit Cole (SP, 4 yr, $144M opt-out), Luke Weaver (RP, $2.5M Club), Anthony Rizzo (1B, $17M Club), Lou Trivino (RP, $5M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Juan Soto (RF), Gleyber Torres (INF), Tommy Kahnle (RP), Alex Verdugo (OF), Clay Holmes (RP)

Tampa Bay Rays

Projected 40-Man CBT: $104.8M (23rd)
Guaranteed Contracts: 5 ($39.8M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 12 ($26.3M)
The season of injury (plus an off-the-field disaster) proved too much to overcome for the Rays. But greener grass is coming in the spring, as a loaded starting rotation should return to full health, and at least a few bats (Yandy Diaz, Josh Lowe, Junior Caminero) will be back in the fold. With that said, the Rays need to score more runs, and relying on a prospect-filled roster generally doesn’t lend itself to that type of immediate production. But knowing this front office - the Rays are certainly going to attempt to buck that trend. Top SS prospect Carson Williams could make the team out of camp (assuming Wander Franco doesn’t return), and if things are going well, CF/2B Chandler Simpson could make his much anticipated debut as well. It’s tough to imagine this team spending too much this offseason, but stranger things have happened.

Notable Options
Brandon Lowe (2B, $10.5M Club)

Toronto Blue Jays

Projected 40-Man CBT: $205M (7th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 7 ($114.8M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 10 ($61.3M)
Are we past the make or break point with this core group? You can tell me that the Blue Jays plan to run it back and make Juan Soto the highest offer this winter as well. You can also tell me that the Blue Jays are fielding calls for both Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette this winter. I’ll believe both, which makes this team a must watch. If they miss on Soto, this could be a front office that doesn’t believe they should be paying for a Top 10 payroll, at which point, it’s hard to imagine anyone not becoming available to the trade/non-tender market.

Notable Free Agents
Ryan Yarbrough (RP)

As MLB flips into offseason mode, Spotrac offers a snapshot look at projected Opening Day 40-Man Tax Payrolls, arbitration salary totals, notable upcoming option decisions, & pending free agents for each team.

Chicago Cubs

Projected 40-Man CBT: $190.3M (8th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 6 ($104.5M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 15 ($35.7M)
The Cubs finished 2nd in the NL Central, led by a starting rotation (Imanaga, Taillon, Assad, Steele) that remained effective for most of 2024. Chicago’s letdown came at the plate, where Cody Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, & Nico Hoerner all had setback seasons. Bellinger has a chance to opt-out of his 2 year, $52.5M remaining, but that’s looking less and less likely now. Look for Chicago to add a shot-in-the-arm bat, then focus heavily on bullpen depth this winter.

Notable Options
Cody Bellinger (CF, 2 yrs, $52.5M Opt-Out), Drew Smyly (P, $10M Mutual)

Notable Free Agents
Jorge López (RP), Kyle Hendricks (SP)

Cincinnati Reds

Projected 40-Man CBT: $92.5M (27th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 3 ($28.2M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 11 ($28.9M)
The Reds have already made significant changes to their front office and coaching staff, a likely prerequisite for what should be an active winter. The focus almost certainly will key in on a starting rotation that hasn’t developed enough to keep up with a flourishing set of young bats. The Reds could use a Royals-like winter, bringing in more mid-range-priced arms than seemingly needed, offering both regular season depth, and a trade chip or two down the stretch. Seeing a young position player or two traded this winter wouldn’t be much of a surprise either.

Notable Options
Nick Martinez (SP, $12M Player), Emilio Pagan (RP, $8M Player), Jake Junis (RP, $8M Mutual)

Notable Free Agents
Buck Farmer (RP), Amed Rosario (UTIL), Justin Wilson (RP)

Milwaukee Brewers

Projected 40-Man CBT: $132.4M (19th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 5 ($47M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 10 ($28.6M)
The Brewers ran away with the NL Central division this year, but were bounced by the Mets in the Wild Card round. Milwaukee had a little bit of everything this season: A veteran resurgence from Christian Yelich, an out-of-nowhere burst from William Contreras, & a youth breakout from Jackson Chourio. Milwaukee has bullpen depth, at least 4 rotation arms, and about 85% of their position players in place. But shortstop Willy Adames will be hitting the open market coming off of a career year. The Brewers generally don’t get involved with “max” contracts, so this will be replacement priority number one most likely.

Notable Options
Frankie Montas (SP, $20M Mutual), Rhys Hoskins (1B, $18M Player), Freddy Peralta (SP, $8M Club), Colin Rea (SP, $5.5M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Willy Adames (SS), Joe Ross (RP)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Projected 40-Man CBT: $99.1M (26th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 4 ($43.7M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($22.8M)
The Pirates finished last in the NL Central, & ten games under .500, but there has to be a sense of excitement heading toward the offseason knowing that the combination of Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, & to a lesser extent Mitch Keller gives them a bonafide, legitimate starting rotation. There’s more help coming from the farm system at this regard, putting the onus on this annually thrifty front office to build up the bullpen and batting line in the coming months. Recent extensions for Keller, Bryan Reynolds, & Ke'Bryan Hayes are a sign that things could be ramping up, but the foot needs to remain on the gas pedal this winter.

Notable Options
Marco Gonzales (SP, $15M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Andrew McCutchen (DH), Yasmani Grandal (C), Aroldis Chapman (RP), Jalen Beeks (RP)

St. Louis Cardinals

Projected 40-Man CBT: $157.1M (16th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 6 ($105.1M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 6 ($20.7M)
The Cardinals tied the Cubs for 2nd in the NL Central, despite being relatively average in most metrics. Masyn Winn & Ryan Helsley had major arrow-up campaigns, but much of the group (Arenado, Gorman, Nootbar, etc..) had stepback seasons. Replacing Paul Goldschmidt at 1B, adding at least 2 reliable starters, and finding the right player to bridge the gap to Helsley at the end of games seem priorities.

Notable Options
Kyle Gibson (SP, $12M Club), Lance Lynn (SP, $11M Club), Keynan Middleton (RP, $6M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Paul Goldschmidt (1B), Andrew Kittredge (RP), Matt Carpenter (DH)

As MLB flips into offseason mode, Spotrac offers a snapshot look at projected Opening Day 40-Man Tax Payrolls, arbitration salary totals, notable upcoming option decisions, & pending free agents for each team.

Chicago White Sox

Projected 40-Man CBT: $75.3M (29th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 2 ($23.3M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($19.95M)
The 41-121 White Sox have nowhere to go but up - unless they don’t. SP Garrett Crochet will remain one of the hottest trade names all winter, while outfielders Andrew Benintendi & Luis Robert Jr. (Chicago’s only guaranteed salary), could very well hear their names in trade talks as well. There’s talent in the farm system, but the White Sox need to give that process time to properly develop before they try to build around it at the major league level.

Notable Options
Yoan Moncada (3B, $25M Club), Max Stassi (C, $7.5M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Chris Flexen (SP), Michael Soroka (SP), Mike Clevinger (SP)

Cleveland Guardians

Projected 40-Man CBT: $114.2M (21st)
Guaranteed Contracts: 4 ($41.8M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($38.7M)
Despite one of the youngest rosters in MLB, the Guardians found themselves in a slugfest with the Yankees this past ALCS. Cleveland prefers to operate somewhere in the middle 20 payroll rank range, so an early projection near the Top 20 likely means something stands to give. That something may be 1B Josh Naylor, who projects to carry a $14M+ arbitration salary in 2025, and could bring back a nice trade return for Cleveland this winter. With that said, this is a team that needs to aggressively find starting pitching this offseason.

Notable Free Agents
Shane Bieber (SP), Matt Boyd (SP), Alex Cobb (SP)

Detroit Tigers

Projected 40-Man CBT: $99.4M (25th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 3 ($40M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($25.6M)
One of the bigger surprises of 2024 now turn the page knowing that SP Tarik Skubal (obviously), & OF Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter represent a legitimate young core going forward. Will the Tigers aggressively reshape their infield this winter? Will top prospect Jackson Jobe join the rotation out of camp? This is easily one of the more fun teams to watch over the course of the next few months.

Notable Options
Casey Mize (SP, $3.1M Club)

Kansas City Royals

Projected 40-Man CBT: $126.1M (20th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 3 ($61.7M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($24.1M)
KC added roster pieces in volume last winter, then locked in their cornerstone piece Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11 year, $288M extension. He and 1B Vinnie Pasquantino represent the young core, but it’s a bit of a checkers board elsewhere. Will this front office be as aggressive in added veteran depth, or will this be a team that looks to its youth to develop into a winning group sooner rather than later? Outfield and Starting Pitching top the offseason needs list.

Notable Options
Michael Wacha (SP, $16M Player), Adam Frazier (INF, $8.5M Mutual), Hunter Renfroe (OF, $7.5M Player), Chris Stratton (RP, $4.5M Player)

Notable Free Agents
Michael Lorenzen (SP), Garrett Hampson (SS), Paul DeJong (SS), Tommy Pham (OF), Yulieski Gurriel (1B)

Minnesota Twins

Projected 40-Man CBT: $144.9M (18th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 6 ($82M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 13 ($35.4M)
The pieces are all there, but health issues plus a brutal stretch of baseball to finish off 2024 kept this franchise out of the postseason. Baseball’s #2 farm system (MLB Pipeline) could help fill in some of the holes, but a splashy signing at first base plus a veteran rotation piece or two seem the most likely paths forward this winter.

Notable Options
Manuel Margot (OF, $12M Mutual), Kyle Farmer (SS, $6.25M Mutual)

Notable Free Agents
Carlos Santana (1B), Max Kepler (OF)

As MLB flips into offseason mode, Spotrac offers a snapshot look at projected Opening Day 40-Man Tax Payrolls, arbitration salary totals, notable upcoming option decisions, & pending free agents for each team.

Atlanta Braves

Projected 40-Man CBT: $225.1M (6th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 14 ($151.2M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 5 ($16.7M)
The Braves spent another large portion of a season without Ronald Acuña Jr., battled through injuries for Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy for much of the year, and of course lost ace Spencer Strider for its entirety. And still, they found a way into the postseason at the final hour before relinquishing their spot to San Diego. The starting pitching (Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach especially) was excellent. Marcell Ozuna remains one of baseball’s top power threats, and most notably - this roster remains largely intact for 2025 (and beyond).

Notable Options
Marcell Ozuna (DH, $16M Club), Travis d'Arnaud (C, $8M Club), Aaron Bummer (RP, $7.25M Club), Luke Jackson (RP, $7M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Max Fried (SP), Charlie Morton (SP), A.J. Minter (RP), Whit Merrifield (INF)

Miami Marlins

Projected 40-Man CBT: $85.7M (28th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 2 ($13.2M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 7 ($24M)
The Marlins went from bad to worse in 2024, selling off key parts at the deadline to boot (Tanner Scott, Jazz Chisholm, Bryan De La Cruz, Josh Bell). The result? A roster comprised of Sandy Alcantara’s pre-arb extension, 7 relatively inexpensive arbitration salaries, and 30+ pre-arbitration players. With that said, when all healthy, there’s a 4-5 man starting rotation already in place, Xavier Edwards & Jake Burger are reliable bats, and the farm system boasts a few prospects that could be ready to go in 2025.

New York Mets

Projected 40-Man CBT: $179.4M (10th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 6 ($119.6M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 8 ($22.3M)
2024 was a tale of two seasons for the Mets, who began the year as one of the worst teams in MLB, then took the Dodgers to 6 games in the NLCS. Having now survived a year with $92M of retained salary, the Mets being 2025 as barely a Top 10 financial team. However, their pending free agent list includes 3 starting pitchers, 3 notable relievers, and the face of the franchise in Pete Alonso. Name a top free agent this winter: The Mets are in on him.

Notable Options
Sean Manaea (SP, $13.5M Player), Phil Maton (RP, $7.8M Club)

Notable Free Agents
Pete Alonso (1B), Jose Quintana (SP), Luis Severino (SP), Jose Iglesias (INF), Harrison Bader (CF), J.D. Martinez (DH)

Philadelphia Phillies

Projected 40-Man CBT: $286.4M (1st)
Guaranteed Contracts: 11 ($220.5M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($39.3M)
The Phillies rolled through the NL East this year, but clipped by the magical Mets in the NLDS. Outside of a few bullpen arms set to hit free agency, this talented roster is set to be run back in 2025, barring forecable change. Philly boasts the highest projected payroll in baseball at the moment, but are still considered a contender for Juan Soto this winter.

Notable Free Agents
Jeff Hoffman (RP), Carlos Estevez (RP), Spencer Turnbull (SP/RP)

Washington Nationals

Projected 40-Man CBT: $105.6M (22nd)
Guaranteed Contracts: 2 ($41.25M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 11 ($32.3M)
The Nats outkicked their coverage a bit in 2024, as their rebuilding team showed plenty of development & future potential in most areas. Are they ready to spend around the young core and make a push up the NL East? The best play might be to buy a veteran starter, rent a bat or two, and try to be the 2024 Orioles. James Wood, Dylan Crews, Jacob Young, Jake Irvin, & Mitchell Parker may all become household names in 2025.

Notable Free Agents
Patrick Corbin (SP), Trevor Williams (SP/RP), Joey Gallo (DH/1B)

As MLB flips into offseason mode, Spotrac offers a snapshot look at projected Opening Day 40-Man Tax Payrolls, arbitration salary totals, notable upcoming option decisions, & pending free agents for each team.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected 40-Man CBT: $167.6M (13th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 4 ($63M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($29.45M)
Christian Walker’s looming free agency is an area of concern, but the rest of this Arizona roster is surprisingly intact. Righting the ship with Jordan Montgomery (who will almost certainly exercise his $22.5M player option) will be a priority, though it’s possible that a trade could be on the table as well. Club options for Eugenio Suarez ($15M) & Merrill Kelly ($7M) are no-brainers.

Notable Options:
Eugenio Suarez (3B, $15M Club), Joc Pederson (DH, $14M Mutual), Merrill Kelly (SP, $7M Club)

Notable Free Agents:
Christian Walker (1B), Kevin Newman (INF), Paul Sewald (RP)

Colorado Rockies

Projected 40-Man CBT: $145M (17th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 7 ($81.8M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 7 ($27.7M)
The Rockies have already made-public their intent to shed payroll in 2025. How they go about doing that remains to be seen. Pitching remains an issue (last in ERA), but the Coors Field-based franchise will never attract high-end offseason arms. Look for this front office to aggressively shop higher-priced arbitration players in favor of younger callups from their farm system. It could be an ugly few more years in Colorado.

Notable Options:
Jacob Stallings (C, $2M Mutual)

Los Angeles Dodgers

Projected 40-Man CBT: $281.5M (2nd)
Guaranteed Contracts: 10 ($209.8M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($28.2M)
With the exception of Teoscar Hernandez, the starting-core of this Dodgers’ roster remains intact for 2025. None of the arbitration eligible players are entering their final year of control, and it’s conceivable that the complement of Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, Shohei Ohtani, & Bobby Miller all fully healthy next spring could automatically bolster this pitching rotation to one of the league’s best. With that said, this has never been a front office that has sat on their hands and rolled over the same old roster for another go. Look for everything to be on the table here - including - but not limited to - a serious run at Juan Soto.

Notable Options:
Miguel Rojas (INF, $5M Club), Austin Barnes (C, $3.5M Club), Clayton Kershaw (SP, $10M player)

Notable Free Agents:
Teoscar Hernandez (OF), Jack Flaherty (SP), Blake Treinen (RP), Enrique Hernandez (UTIL),  Walker Buehler (SP)

San Diego Padres

Projected 40-Man CBT: $243.8M (3rd)
Guaranteed Contracts: 8 ($145.7M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 8 ($47.7M)
The Padres were a team that shook things up early, battled through injuries mid-season, then came together perfectly down the stretch just in time for a run into the postseason. This is a turn-key roster for 2025, with hopes that Yu Darvish & Xander Bogaerts can return to full health/usage. Replacing SP Joe Musgrove (UCL) and one of the 2024 Best Values Jurickson Profar (UFA) will be a top priority. But GM A.J. Preller - one of MLB’s most aggressive execs, likely already has a laundry list of ideas in mind.

Notable Options:
Ha-seong Kim (SS, $7M Mutual), Wandy Peralta (RP, $4.3M Player)

Notable Free Agents:
Jurickson Profar (OF), Tanner Scott (RP), Kyle Higashioka (C), Elias Diaz (C) 

San Francisco Giants

Projected 40-Man CBT: $170.3M (12th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 6 ($88.125M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 4 ($22.4M)

A disappointing season led to a complete turn over of the front office this Fall. Buster Posey is now tasked with a roster that has a few key players (Logan Webb, Matt Chapman, Ryan Walker, Patrick Bailey), but there’s a very real world where multiple shakeups happen elsewhere around the roster. Blake Snell’s looming opt-out, and Robbie Ray’s $50M option decision could leave SF with more than few rotation spots to replace.

Notable Options:
Blake Snell (SP, $30M Player), Robbie Ray (SP, 2 yr $50M Player Option)

Notable Free Agents:
Michael Conforto (OF), Mark Canha (OF), Curt Casali (C)

As MLB flips into offseason mode, Spotrac offers a snapshot look at projected Opening Day 40-Man Tax Payrolls, arbitration salary totals, notable upcoming option decisions, & pending free agents for each team.

Athletics

Projected 40-Man CBT: $50.6M (30th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 0
Arbitration-Eligible: 5  ($12.25M)

The city-less A’s enter the offseason with $50M projected toward their 40-man roster - by far the lowest in MLB, an unfortunate par for the course for this franchise. The Athletics have 5 players eligible for arbitration, led by DH Brent Rooker, who enters for the first time. There are no guaranteed salaries or options on this roster right now.

Notable Free Agents:
Scott Alexander (RP), Ross Stripling (RP/SP), T.J. McFarland (RP), Alex Wood (SP)

Houston Astros

Projected 40-Man CBT: $233.7M (5th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 8 ($126.9M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 9 ($63.5M)
Final arbitration years for SP Framber Valdez & OF Kyle Tucker have the Astros carrying 8 tax salaries north of $12.5M right now, with Jose Altuve’s $25M per year extension beginning in 2025 as well. It’s reasonable to expect a little bit of change to the current outlook, but with their window of contention seemingly closing sooner rather than later, one last big push this offseason isn’t out of the question either.

Notable Free Agents:
Alex Bregman (3B), Jason Heyward (OF), Hector Neris (RP), Yusei Kikuchi (SP), Justin Verlander (SP)

Los Angeles Angels

Projected 40-Man CBT: $171.9M (11th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 4 ($94.5M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 11 ($41M)
Anthony Rendon & Mike Trout represent 38% of the Angels’ projected total right now. Rendon has 2 years remaining on his deal, while Trout remains under contract through the 2030 season. Notable SPs Patrick Sandoval & Griffin Canning are nearing the end of team control, but it seems more likely that LAA will be buying heavy instead of selling big this winter.

Notable Free Agents:
Hunter Strickland (RP), Kevin Pillar (OF), Willie Calhoun (OF)

Seattle Mariners

Projected 40-Man CBT: $162.4M (14th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 7 ($70.7M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 13 ($52M)
The Mariners roster is loaded with arbitration level talent that should keep this payroll tempered - even with a few splashy signings or acquisitions this offseason.Mitch Haniger holds a $15.5M player option that he’s expected to opt-in to, while Seattle has a $12M decision on Jorge Polanco ($750,000 buyout) this winter. This is a roster with very little dropoff from 2024, so the Mariners will need to be aggressive to improve (not a problem for this front office).

Notable Options:
Mitch Haniger (OF, $17.5M Player), Jorge Polanco (INF, $10.5M Club)

Notable Free Agents:
Yimi Garcia (RP), Justin Turner (DH/3B)

Texas Rangers

Projected 40-Man CBT: $187.2M (9th)
Guaranteed Contracts: 6 ($126.5M)
Arbitration-Eligible: 6 ($30.2M)
The lack of certaity surrounding the Rangers’ television broadcast future has to be a factor in how the team utilizes resources in the immediacy. A clean bill of health from Jacob deGrom would certainly be a good start for a team looking to re-find it’s 2023 magic, while Nathan Eovaldi ($20M player option) & David Robertson ($7M mutual option) are both expected to hit the open market. If 2025 becomes a scale back season, look for the Rangers to field offers for 1B Nate Lowe, who enters Year 3 of a 4 year arbitration path this winter.

Notable Options:
Nathan Eovaldi (SP, $20M Player), David Robertson (RP, $7M Mutual), Andrew Chafin (RP, $6.5M Club)

Notable Free Agents:
Kirby Yates (RP), Andrew Heaney (SP), Max Scherzer (SP)

The 2nd & 3rd highest luxury tax payrolls in MLB will take the biggest stage this weekend for a chance to secure the 2024 World Series title. The Dodgers (who yes, benefited greatly from Shohei Ohtani’s $68M cash savings, & $24M tax savings) pumped over $1.2B of guaranteed contracts into their organization last winter, but had to piecemeal together a starting rotation for the better part of the last few months to keep themselves on the train tracks. The Yankees, who acquired their big fish Juan Soto via trade, put together a postseason run that went about as according to plan as possible: timely pitching and a bevy of home runs.

We dive into 7 players of note set to play out the final series of the year, including two of baseball’s highest-paid, a player vying to be next in line for that label, and a few pending free agents who can further their financials over the next two weeks.

Shohei Ohtani (DH, Dodgers)

Obviously. The most exciting player in the game finally earns a trip to its biggest stage, though only as a hitter (maybe?). Ohtani posted a 9.22 WAR in the regular season (3rd overall), and is coming off of an NLCS where he went 8-22 with 9 walks at the top of the Dodgers lineup. His 10 year $700M contract runs through the 2033 season (though the deferred payments cover 2034-2043 respectively), giving the Dodgers a decade-long reason to keep their foot on the gas pedal.

Juan Soto (RF, Yankees)

Also obviously. Soto already has a World Series ring (as a 19-year-old in Washington), and now has a chance to snag another on the cusp of free agency. With that said, the Yankees can get mercy-rule swept with Soto posting an 0-The Series at the plate, and a dozen teams will still have a $500M+ offer sheet ready to hit the fax machine. He’s about to turn 26-years-old. He holds a 36.4 combined WAR in just 7 seasons (Trea Turner has the same WAR across 10 years). He’s both disciplined and a killer at the plate altogether, and when put in seemingly the most perfect of settings for 2024 (in front of Aaron Judge, at Yankee Stadium), he somehow exceeded expectations. The bidding war will be one for the ages, and the Yankees would be fools to lose it.

Aaron Judge (CF, Yankees)

Almost everything about Aaron Judge’s 2024 season comes with a “career-best” next to it, including his first trip to the World Series this week. The 32-year-old presumptive AL MVP led the league in HR, RBI, BB, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, TB, & WAR. He just completed Year 2 of his 9 year, $360M deal with NY that contains no opt-outs,options, or deferred payments.

Gleyber Torres (2B, Yankees)

The ultimate example of “smelling free agency”, Torres was a player that at more than a few points over his 6 years in NY was being booed out of Yankee Stadium for one reason or another. But his production & effort both at the plate and in the infield has been a spark plug for the Yankees down the stretch in 2024. The pending free agent has bolstered his overall value, especially now that he’s a proven leadoff hitter in big moments. His arbitration compensation suggests a contract in the $16M-$18M range, though at just shy of 28-years-old, don’t be surprised to see a team or two push higher here.

Teoscar Hernandez (OF,  Dodgers)

Hernandez turned $30M over 3 years of arbitration into a 1 year, $23.5M free agent contract to join the Dodgers. 32 doubles, 33 homers, 99 RBIs, and a career-high 4.29 WAR later, Hernandez will hit the open market this winter as one of the best available power hitters. The 32-year-old will be limited from a length standpoint, but it’s not inconceivable that a 4 year, $100M guarantee comes his way soon.

Jack Flaherty (SP, Dodgers)

Arguably the biggest pitcher to move at the deadline (via Detroit), Flaherty posted consistently good numbers down the stretch for the Dodgers. In the postseason, 2 out of his 3 starts were sloppy (to say the least), but his NLCS Game 1 start against NY was the stuff of legends. The pending UFA entered 2024 with a $23.3M valuation (4 years, $95M), and can really hit the market on a high note with another memorable moment on the mound this week.

Luke Weaver (RP, Yankees)

Weaver signed a 1 year, $2M contract with the Yankees last winter after posting a 6.40 ERA across 25 starts with the Reds, Mariners & Yankees in 2023. It was an afterthought signing for the Yankees who were simply hoping to find a role for him (likely not as a starter). But an offseason of change (new delivery, new mindset as a reliever, increased velocity) completely transformed the 31-year-old’s career path. The catch? NY added a $2.5M club option to his deal, locking him in for 2025 as a veritable steal if he can remain his good standing as their 9th-inning man.

As the MLB Postseason nears the finish line, we’ll begin to focus our attention toward the 2025 offseason, beginning with players who carry an option on their contract. The following is a run-down of notable players who have the ability to exercise an early opt-out, hold a player option, or carry a club/mutual option for the 2025 season, including predictions for each outcome.

RELATED: 2025 MLB Free Agency

PLAYER OPT-OUTS

Gerrit Cole (SP, Yankees)

The 34-year-old has the ability to opt-out of the remaining 4 years, $144M - but there’s a catch. The Yankees can cancel that opt-out by tacking on an extra $36M salary to the 2029 season, making the contract 5 years, $180M. That seems to be the play here for both sides.

Prediction: Opt-Out/Buy-Back

Cody Bellinger (OF/1B, Cubs)

The 29-year-old secured $27.5M from the Cubs in 2024, but his production dropped off about 40% from his 2023 resurrection season. Bellinger has a $27.5M option for 2025, then another $25M option in 2026 thereafter.

Prediction: Opt-In

Robbie Ray (SP, Giants)

The 33-year-old has the ability to opt-out of a remaining 2 years, $50M. He spent all but 7 starts worth of time on the injured list in 2024, and hasn’t been a full-time pitcher since 2022.

Prediction: Opt-In

Lucas Giolito (SP, Red Sox)

The 30-year-old missed all of 2024 from offseason elbow surgery, but should be in full-form by 2025 Spring Training. He carries a $19M salary in 2025, with a $14M-$19M option in 2026 (based on 2025 innings).

Prediction: Opt-In

Rhys Hoskins (1B, Brewers)

The 31-year-old signed a 2 year, $34M free agent contract on the heels of a torn ACL that included $12M in 2024, $18M in 2025, & a $4M buyout on an $18M mutual option in 2026. Hoskins had a productive 2024 campaign (especially as it pertains to power), but it’s tough to imagine him finding a better situation both financially and from a team standpoint.

Prediction: Opt-In

PLAYER OPTIONS

Blake Snell (SP, Giants)

Snell skipped his final SF start, leaving most to believe that he’s already made his decision about declining the 1 year, $30M remaining on his current contract and re-entering the open market this winter. The near 32-year-old is a $26M per year player in our system.

Prediction: Declined

Mitch Haniger (OF, Mariners)

Haniger hasn’t come close to repeating the 23 double, 39 homer, 100 RBI campaign he posted in 2021, making his 3 year, $43.5M contract a bit uncomfortable for San Francisco & now Seattle respectively. 2025 comes with a $15.5M player option that Haniger would be foolish not to play out.

Prediction: Exercised

Michael Wacha (SP, Royals)

Wacha rewarded KC’s 2 year, $32M free agent contract with career numbers across the board, putting him in line to opt-out of the remaining $16M for 2025 and head back to the open market. The 33-year-old carries a 3 year, $60M valuation in our system.

Prediction: Declined

Sean Manaea (SP, Mets)

Manaea opted-out of a 2 year, $25M contract with San Francisco last winter, into a 2 year, $28M contract with New York. He posted his best numbers in three years, and could conceivably be viewed as the Mets’ ace for much of their stretch run. It seems a lock that the 32-year-old will punt on a $13.5M salary for a chance to lock in a multi-year guarantee this winter. He projects toward a 2 year, $30M contract in our system.

Prediction: Declined

Nick Martinez (SP, Reds)

Martinez started 16 games for the 2024 Reds, posting a career-low 3.10 ERA and a career-high 3.98 WAR. The 34-year-old should have no trouble finding a multi-year guarantee to replace his $12M salary next season.

Prediction: Declined

Clayton Kershaw (SP, Dodgers)

Despite making just 7 starts, Kershaw added $2.5M to his 2025 player option, making it a $10M decision next month. Even if the plan is to continue his career, Kershaw most likely opts-out of this salary to free up both he and the Dodgers’ options over the course of the next few months.

Prediction: Declined

Emilio Pagan (RP, Reds)

Pagan was one of the better relievers in baseball as a member of the 2023 Twins, but he couldn’t recreate that magic last year with the Reds. An $8M payday for 2025 seems a shoe-in.

Prediction: Exercised

Hunter Renfroe (OF, Royals)

Renfroe’s overall production has decreased in each of the past 3 seasons, putting his place as an everyday starter very much in question going forward. The 32-year-old probably settles for the $2M pay raise, exercising a $7.57M salary for 2025.

Prediction: Exercised

Chris Stratton (RP, Royals)

Stratton’s 2 year, $8M free agent contract included a $4.5M player option for 2025.The 34-year-old posted a 5.55 ERA, -0.70 WAR in 2024, setting him up to stay within this contract through next season.

Prediction: Exercised

Wandy Peralta (RP, Padres)

Peralta’s 4 year, $16.5M contract includes a player option after each season. A groin injury limited his appearances last year, increasing the likelihood that he remains on this deal through a $4.25M salary for 2025.

Prediction: Exercised

Wilmer Flores (1B, Giants)

Flores spent nearly 4 months on the IL with a knee problem, destroying any chance he might have to recreate his career-year from 2023 (22 doubles, 23 homers, 2.62 WAR). After earning $6.5M in 2024, Flores’ player option for 2025 comes in at $3.5M, so an exercise would mean a pay cut.

Prediction: Exercised

CLUB OPTIONS

Yoan Moncada (3B, White Sox)

Option: $25M ($5M buyout)
Moncado finished out his 5 year extension in 2024, posting only 1 season (2021) worth taking note of. A hip injury derailed his 2024 campaign, setting up the White Sox to take on the $5M buyout in favor of a $25M salary next season.

Prediction: Declined

Anthony Rizzo (1B, Yankees)

Option: $17M ($6M buyout)
Father Time hasn’t been kind to Rizzo both from a production and reliability standpoint of late, putting the Yankees in position to take on the $6M buyout in favor of a $17M salary next season.

Prediction: Declined

Eloy Jimenez (DH, Orioles)

Option: $16.5M ($3M buyout)
Jimenez completed his 6 year extension this season, spending the final 33 games with Baltimore to close it out. He’s 2 years removed from his most formidable season (23 doubles 18 homers, .295 average, 1.79 WAR), but has no real stretch of consistently good play on his resume. The Orioles & White Sox will split his $3M buyout this winter.

Prediction: Declined

Marcell Ozuna (DH, Braves)

Option: $16M ($1M buyout)
Ozuna is an immovable force in the middle of the Braves’ lineup, hitting for power, average, and consistency across the board. He’s a 7.6 WAR player over the past two seasons, meaning Atlanta will be thrilled to exercise a $16M salary for 2025.

Prediction: Exercised

Marco Gonzales (SP, Pirates)

Option: $15M (no buyout)
Gonzalez was traded twice (Atlanta, Pittsburgh) amidst a 4 year, $30M contract extension signed by Seattle, battling arm injuries each of the last two seasons. With no buyout against a $15M club option, it’s a lock that the Pirates will move on here. 

Prediction: Declined

Eugenio Suarez (3B, Diamondbacks)

Option: $15M ($2M buyout)
The 33-year-old had his most complete season in years in 2024, the final of a 6 year, $66M extension. His $15M option salary for 2025 represents a $4M raise, but that seem more than plausible for an Arizona franchise looking to remain in the thick of things.

Prediction: Exercised

Kyle Gibson (SP, Cardinals)

Option: $12M ($1M buyout)
The numbers aren’t popping off of the screen (and never really have), but Gibson has been a model of consistency for the better part of two decades. The 36-year-old ate up 170 innings across 30 starts in 2024 and can be brought back at the same $12M salary he earned last season ($1M buyout otherwise).

Prediction: Declined

Jorge Polanco (2B, Mariners)

Option: $12M ($750,000 buyout)
The Twins exercised a $10.5M option for 2024, then subsequently traded Polanco to Seattle. He posted his worst season in 4 years from a productivity standpoint, putting his $12M salary for 2025 on notice ($750,000 buyout).

Prediction: Declined

Lance Lynn (SP, Cardinals)

Option: $11M ($1M buyout)
A knee injury limited Lynn to just 23 starts in 2024, but the overall efficiency on the mound was still evident. The 37-year-old holds an $11M salary against a $1M buyout for 2025.

Prediction: Declined

Devin Williams (RP, Brewers)

Option: $10.5M ($250,000 buyout)
The heir apparent to Josh Hader in Milwaukee missed 4 months of 2024 with a back injury, but was every bit the 9th inning star he was advertised to be in the 22 appearances he was able to make. There’s a bit of math to figure out here, as Williams carries a $10.5M club option for 2025, but also one final year of arbitration eligibility. If Milwaukee believes they can lower that $10.5M cost through the arbitration process, a decline would make some business sense here. 

Prediction: Exercised

Brandon Lowe (2B, Rays)

Option: $10.5M ($1M buyout)
Lowe finished out the guaranteed portion of his 6 year, $24M contract this year, leaving a $10.5M club option for 2025, & an $11.5M one for 2026. The Rays generally scoff at salaries north of $10M, but Lowe still seems a part of the core in Tampa.

Prediction: Exercised

Freddy Peralta (SP, Brewers)

Option: $8M (no buyout)
Peralta (32 starts, 3.68 ERA, 2.55 WAR in 2024) projects toward a 4 year, $70M contract in our system, making his $8M club option for 2025 a veritable steal.

Prediction: Exercised

Seranthony Dominguez (SP, Orioles)

Option: $8M ($250,000 buyout)
Dominguez posted career-worsts across the board in 2024, despite splitting time between two very good teams (Phillies, Orioles). A $3.75M raise to $8M for 2025 seems unlikely ($500,000 buyout).

Prediction: Declined

Ryan O’Hearn (1B, Orioles)

Option: $8M (no buyout)
O’Hearn has been a serviceable player in the middle of Baltimore’s lineup the past two seasons, but his $8M option for 2025 represents a $4.5M pay raise. For a team almost certain to be aggressive this offseason, moving off of this option (no buyout) might make some sense.

Prediction: Declined

Travis d’Arnaud (C, Braves)

Option: $8M (no buyout)
The 36-year-old split much of 2024 with the well-paid Sean Murphy (who battled an oblique injury early on), and his $8M 2025 option matches his 2024 compensation. The problem? Murphy’s salary jumps up $6M ($9M to $15M) in 2025, meaning the Braves would be allocated $23M to their catchers for the upcoming season. It’s not out of the question, but it’s also not something most franchises would sign up for.

Prediction: Declined

Phil Maton (RP, Mets)

Option: $7.75M ($250,000 buyout)
An early deadline acquisition from Tampa Bay, Maton has experience in a variety of big games, and the Mets appear poised to be contending once again in 2025. His $7.75M option is on the more expensive side for middle relievers, but with Adam Ottavino certain to come off the books, there’s room for the Mets to make this work. It’s a $250,000 buyout if not.

Prediction: Exercised

Merrill Kelly (SP, Diamondbacks)

Option: $7M ($1M buyout)
Kelly missed 4 months with a shoulder injury, and Arizona will be in search of upgrades to their rotation this winter, but at $7M ($1M buyout), there’s too much value here to see the Diamondbacks moving on.

Prediction: Exercised

MUTUAL OPTIONS

Frankie Montas (SP, Brewers)

Option: $20M ($2M buyout)
The Reds gave Montas a 1 year deal that included a $20M mutual option for 2025. That option now belongs to the Brewers, who acquired the 31-year-old at the deadline for their stretch run. He’s a valued innings-eater, but the numbers across the board don’t necessarily align with a $20M payday.

Prediction: Declined by Team

Joc Pederson (DH, Diamondbacks)

Option: $14M ($3M buyout)
It can be argued that Pederson just completed his most productive MLB season in terms of both power, efficiency, and even 7 stolen bases to boot. The 32-year-old was used primarily as a DH in 2024, limiting his value to a degree, but it stands to reason that the player will want to cash in on his nice season this winter.

Prediction: Declined by Player

David Robertson (RP, Rangers)

Option: $7M ($1.5M buyout)
The 39-year-old made 68 appearances in 2024, posting solid numbers as per usual, with the exception of saves - which he’s no longer being targeted for at this stage of his career. Robertson vested $10M in 2024, so the option would be a pay cut he’s probably not worthy of.

Prediction: Declined by Player

Manuel Margot (OF, Twins)

Option: $12M ($2M buyout)
Margot bounced around from the Rays, to the Dodgers, to the Twins in 2024, then posted career lows for the most part on the field. Tampa is responsible for the buyout here, making this an easy decision for the Twins (who are certain to be cutting payroll).

Prediction: Declined by Team

Drew Smyly (RP, Cubs)

Option: $10M ($2.5M buyout)
Smyly started 45 games for the Cubs across 2022-23, but was moved to the bullpen in 2024 where he saw action in 50 games, finishing 8. There’s a world where the 35-year-old becomes an important piece to a bullpen for the next few seasons, but the Cubs (who placed Smyly on waivers in August) are likely leaning toward a decline here to begin their offseason.

Prediction: Declined by Team

RELATED: 2025 MLB Free Agency

2024 Playoff Teams

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Los Angeles Dodgers (#5 Payroll)
Obviously this ranking is heavily suppressed by the $68M annual deferral in Shohei Ohtani’s historic contract, but the Dodgers still moved up a spot from their 6th place 2023 ranking with an aggressive offseason across the board, & won the NL pennant despite a rash of injuries to their pitching staff.

Philadelphia Phillies (#4 Payroll)
The Phillies have carried a Top 5 payroll each of the past 4 seasons and now possess 6 contracts of $100M or more, and their entire starting roster is on the books for 2025 as well.

Milwaukee Brewers (#21 Payroll)
The Brewers shed a coach, an ace, and a few notable bats this offseason - and still won the NL Central by 10 games. They’ll have the resources to be aggressive this winter if they choose.

San Diego Padres (#15 Payroll)
Despite a bounty of expensive veteran contracts, the Padres amazing stretch run was sparked by a youth movement in 2024. There’s potential for real staying power with this roster going forward. San Diego has held a Top 5 payroll for the past 3 seasons, but find themselves in the middle of the pack to finish the 2024 campaign.

Atlanta Braves (#6 Payroll)
The Braves regular season might be defined by injuries, but they’ll have a say in the postseason regardless. Atlanta will see a significant portion of their starting rotation and bullpen hit the open market this winter, so look for an aggressive offseason (again).

New York Mets (#1 Payroll)
The league’s top payroll snuck into the backend of the postseason with one of the crazier regular season games in recent memory. The Mets carried $87M of retained salary this season, which is more than the Pirates or A’s allocated to their entire payrolls this year alone. They’ll have plenty of decisions to make with their starting pitching & the Polar Bear this winter.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

New York Yankees (#2 Payroll)
It wasn’t always pretty, but the Yankees were steadily one of the best teams in the American League for most of 2024, and should be considered a prohibitive favorite this month. Juan Soto has been a dream fit in this lineup (and stadium). Will it continue after 2024?

Cleveland Guardians (#23 Payroll)
Projected by many to miss the playoffs altogether, Cleveland found magic in a young starting rotation and held on for dear life down the stretch to capture another AL Central title, and the 2 seed in the AL. Only two players on this team carry a salary north of of $10M in 2024, and one of them (Shane Bieber) was on the shelf for the entire season: Value-based winning at its finest.

Houston Astros (#3 Payroll)
One of the most expensive Astros teams in franchise history turned an extremely slow start into yet another AL West title this season. Houston held the 3rd most cash allocated to the Injured List in 2024, but found lightning in a bottle in many areas of the roster yet again. They’ll enter October with more injury questions, but shouldn’t be counted out (obviously).

Baltimore Orioles (#22 Payroll)
The Orioles answered the “did they do enough this offseason/deadline” question loudly but sliding miserably back to earth down the stretch. This team is young and talented enough to flip the switch in October and make an Arizona-like run in 2024 if a few bounces go their way. Look for a much more aggressive front office this winter (maybe).

Kansas City Royals (#20 Payroll)
The Royals pieced together a lot of “what-if” veterans this past winter to fall in around clear as day stars in Bobby Witt Jr.. and Vinnie Pasquantino. For the most part, their offseason risks paid off - though things got a little rocky through the dog days of 2024. Witt Jr. might need to be all-world to keep them alive in October, but this is a must-watch franchise this coming winter.

Detroit Tigers (#26 Payroll)
The Tigers were dead to rights halfway through 2024, but made a remarkable turnaround to sneak into October in the season’s final week. Sure-bet Cy Young Tarik Skubal & breakout star Riley Greene appear to be cornerstone pieces for a franchise that has been cursed by top of the draft busts over the past few iterations. The time to start spending in Detroit may be here.

How the Top-Paid Players Fared

Shohei Ohtani (DH, Dodgers)

Contract APY: $70M
Adjusted APY: $46M

Let’s get the asterisk out of the way ($2M cash today, $68M cash later). If he were earning all $70M in 2024, would anyone even blink an eye? Two things are true about Shohei Ohtani: He’s historically great & having him in the postseason is better than not. He’s locked up through the 2033 season.

Aaron Judge (OF, Yankees)

Contract APY: $40M

Nearly 2 years out from signing his 9 year, $360M deal to remain in NY, Judge posted his best all-around season to date, finishing 2024 with a .322 batting average, 1.159 OPS, 58 homers, 144 RBIs, & a whopping 10.82 WAR. Dropping Juan Soto ahead of him in the lineup worked about as well as we all thought it would. Judge is under contract through the 2031 season (with no opt-outs available).

Jacob deGrom (SP, Rangers)

Contract APY: $37M

The Rangers have now paid deGrom $70M for 9 starts (including just 3 in 2024), but better days appear to be on the horizon. The 36-year-old has 3 years, $115M remaining on his contract.

Gerrit Cole (SP, Yankees)

Contract APY: $36M

Cole just finished his 12th regular season, and his 11th with an ERA below 4.0 (3.41 in 2024). Injury held him to just 17 starts this year, but he was as effective (and valuable) as ever for a Yankees team looking to make a deep run in October. The 34-year-old has an opt-out available this winter, but the Yankees can void it with an extra $36M salary tacked on in 2029 (a likely outcome).

Mike Trout (OF, Angels)

Contract APY: $35.5M

The last time Mike Trout played 150 regular season games was 2016. The 33-year-old has now seen action in just 111 games over the past two seasons (including just 29 in 2024), which could make the next 6 years, $212.7M pretty uncomfortable for the Angels.

Top Offseason Signings

(See Ohtani above.)

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (SP, Dodgers)

12 years, $325,000,000

The 25-year-old free agent out of Japan posted a 3.00 ERA  (1.71 WAR) in 18 starts for the Dodgers this year, while also missing 4 months due to a shoulder issue. He’s locked in through 2029 before his first of two opt-outs becomes available

Bobby Witt Jr. (SS, Royals)

11 years, $288,777,777

Well that worked out. The #2 overall pick back in 2019 broke onto the scene in 2023, but broke into the MVP conversation in 2024 (.332/.389/.588/.977, 32 HRs, 109 RBIs, 31 SBs). He’ll earn $48.7M combined over the next 4 seasons (buying out his remaining team control) before things ramp up in 2028.

Aaron Nola (SP, Phillies)

7 years, $172,000,000

Nola returned to Philly on a deal that now guarantees him over $228M earned on the field throughout his career. He responded with a very Nola-like season (3.57 ERA, 3.60 WAR, 33 starts) helping the Phillies garner the #2 seed this October. Nola’s deal contains no options through 2030.

Will Smith (C, Dodgers)

10 years, $140,000,000

Smith has started 370 games for the Dodgers in the past three seasons. He’s both incredibly reliable & productive, posting yet another 20 HR, 75 RBI campaign in LA. The 29-year-old is locked in through 2033 with no options.

Tyler Glasnow (SP, Dodgers)

5 years, $136,562,500

The injury bug stuck with Glasnow per his move out West, as Glasnow missed the better part of 2 ½ months this season due to back and elbow injuries. He’s one of the game’s best when healthy, but it might be a rollercoaster ride through the next 4 years, $111M+.

Jung-hoo Lee (OF, Giants)

6 years, $113,000,000

The 25-year-old outfielder out of South Korea saw only 158 plate appearances this season before a  shoulder injury ended his season. He’s locked in through 2027 before a player opt-out becomes available.

Played into a Payday

Juan Soto (OF, Yankees)

Current Projection: 14 years. $514M

Soto finished 2024 with 41 HRs, 109 RBIs, and a near 8 WAR for the Yankees, linking up with Aaron Judge as the best 1-2 punch in the game. There will be a bidding war (despite the $500M valuation), but it’s hard to imagine the Yankees losing out in the end.

Teoscar Hernandez (OF, Dodgers)

Current Projection: 3 years, $72M

Hernandez posted a career year after (somewhat surprisingly) joining LAD on a 1 year, $23.5M deal. It’s impossible to imagine he won’t secure a multi-year guarantee this time around.

Max Fried (SP, Braves)

Current Projection: 6 years, $136M

Fried’s overall production was a little less consistent in 2024 than it’s been in recent years, but the resume as a whole speaks for itself as he enters the open market for the first time. He’ll join Corbin Burnes as the pre-eminent starter options in free agency.

Willy Adames (SS, Brewers)

Current Projection: 6 years, $152M

A shortstop who hits for power and all of a sudden decided to start stealing bases? Insert dollar sign emoji. A return to Milwaukee on something team friendly is certainly possible, but Adames will have big boy offers to change cities this winter if he so desires.

Alex Bregman (3B, Astros)

Current Projection: 4 years, $120M

Bregman just finished a 5 year, $100M contract in Houston and continues to post above average production with ridiculous consistency (pencil him in for a .260 average, 25 HRs, & a 4+ WAR every April). There will be a big push to keep Bregman an Astro for life, but the corner infield market this winter is weak.

With about 5 weeks of regular season baseball remaining, the upcoming free agency picture is becoming more and more in focus. Before the hustle and bustle of the postseason, and a few last minute extensions come to fruition, Spotrac dives into players headed for unrestricted free agency, or team/player option decision in the coming weeks and months, including financial valuations for each.

RELATED: 2025 MLB Free Agents

TOP 5 VALUATIONS

Every year Spotrac runs the list of available (or potentially available) free agents through their valuation algorithm, a tool that uses previous 2-year datasets, a comparable player grading system, adjustments for age, & a few other bells and whistles to output the mathematical baseline for where a player stands financially speaking at any given time.

Here are the Top 5 valuations for the upcoming 2025 MLB Free Agent Season:

• Juan Soto (NYY, RF): 14 years, $530M ($37.8M APY)
• Pete Alonso (NYM, 1B): 7 years, $206M ($29.5M APY)
• Corbin Burnes (BAL, SP): 6 years, $182M ($30.3M APY)
• Gerrit Cole (NYY, SP): 5 years, $179M ($35.8M APY)
• Willy Adames (MIL, SS): 7 years, $175M ($25M APY)

View the complete Market Value List

STARTING PITCHERS

There are three names out of the gate who should garner significant interest this winter - though Shane Bieber & Max Fried both come with their own version of injury red flags. Burnes has a chance to be MLB’s next $200M pitcher, something only 8 players (including Ohtani) have garnered.
Free Agent SP | SP Market Values

Unrestricted Free Agents

Option/Decision Notables

RELIEF PITCHERS

Tanner Scott likely enters the winter as the most sought after reliever, though Carlos Estevez will have something to say about it with a big run down the stretch. Devin Williams should already regret adding a 2025 club option to his contract, while super-vets Chapman & Jensen have done enough to get paid yet again.
Free Agent RP | RP Market Values

Unrestricted Free Agents

Option/Decision Notables

CATCHERS

A weak class got even more fragile when the Colorado Rockies outright released Elias Diaz, who remains unsigned at the time of this piece. Barring a few trades (or a blockbuster extension for Adley Rutschman), this winter will be about depth at the catcher position.
Free Agent C | C Market Values

Unrestricted Free Agents

Option/Decision Notables

1ST BASEMEN

Can Pete Alonso lift up a first base market that has really struggled to hold financial weight in the modern era? A position once filled with blockbuster contracts now boasts many players transplanted from another spot on the field for long stretches. Alonso isn’t exactly bringing his most productive stat line with him to the open market, but the interest will be immense.
Free Agent 1B | 1B Market Values

Unrestricted Free Agents

As the July 30th MLB Trade Deadline approaches, many teams have already begun to maneuver for the dog-day stretch of the 2024 season. The Oakland Athletics have already started their annual “trade, demote, or designate anyone with a million dollar salary” process. The smaller markets (Kansas City/Baltimore) have taken a head start into trade season, adding to their respective bullpens before the real fun begins. And of course, the need to watch the standings on a daily basis has become as important as ever, as we all collectively attempt to decipher which teams will be buyers, sellers, or a little bit of both over the next 8 days.

Spotrac has scoured the internets, listened to all of the relevant podcasts, and of course run through hours and hours of game film to generate the most complete list of players at least marginally rumored to be on the move this summer. Some will, many won’t, a few will have never even been in the running - but for the most part, this is a decent guide to use for the next week.

Our list includes a positional grouping of players, their remaining 2024 salary at the July 30th deadline, and their future contract status (UFA, Arbitration eligibility, guaranteed salary, etc…).

POSITIVE & NEGATIVE TAX TEAMS

But first, a quick update as to where certain teams stand in terms of the CBT heading toward August. As you might imagine, the Mets are currently positioned in the worst shape, carrying a projected $342M tax payroll ($105M over the threshold). They stand to owe an estimated $91M bill at year end. The Dodgers ($329M) & Yankees ($315M) round out the $300M+ club right now, with Atlanta ($269M), Houston ($261M), Philly ($261M), San Francisco ($252M), Texas ($251M), & Toronto ($245M) rounding out the remaining teams who currently sit over the $237M league threshold.

Look for San Francisco, Texas, & Toronto to make a concerted attempt to get under that $237M in the coming days (easier said than done).

Also near the tax line are the Cubs ($236M) who remain on the Buy/Sell split line as we speak, but may opt to shave a few million for business purposes, while keeping their focus on establishing a contending team for 2025.

Contenders with ample tax space to burn?

• Baltimore: $121M
• Pittsburgh: $117M
• Cleveland: $102M
• Milwaukee: $84M
• Seattle: $77M
• Kansas City: $76M
• Minnesota: $75M

RELATED: MLB Team Tax Space

TRADE CANDIDATES

Catchers

A small, expiring crew on the surface but a contending team taking a swing for Diaz (who stands apart as the big fish here), could prove extremely valuable down the stretch.

Danny Jansen (TOR, $1.6M, UFA)
Elias Diaz (COL, $1.9M, UFA)
Jacob Stallings (COL, $483k, Mutual Option)
Carson Kelly (DET, $1.1M, UFA)

1st Basemen

The position group that holds maybe the biggest “swings” this week, though it seems less and less likely that either Alonso or Vlad Jr. are moved. A monster offer for Paredes might be in play here, as he holds 3 years of team control.

Andrew Vaughn (CHW, $1M, Arbitration thru 2026)
Spencer Torkelson (DET, $238k, Arbitration thru 2028)
Josh Bell (MIA, $5.3M UFA)
Pete Alonso (NYM, $6.6M, UFA)
Wilmer Flores (SF, $2M, Player Option)
Isaac Paredes (TB, $1M, Arbitration thru 2027)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR, $6.4M, Arbitration thru 2025)

2nd Basemen

Rengifo may be the most likely trade candidate here (as the Angels are primed for another sell-off), but India could be one of the bigger sleepers on this entire page. He’s got contender potential and 1 more year of control.

Jonathan India (CIN, $1.2M, Control thru 2026)
Brendan Rodgers (COL, $1M, Arbitration thru 2025)
Luis Rengifo (LAA, $1.4M, Arbitration thru 2025)
Thairo Estrada (SF, $1.5M, Arbitration thru 2025)
Brandon Lowe (TB, $2.8M, Club Option)

Shortstops

DeJong was a castaway player 12 months ago (released 3 different times) but has done enough to warrant interest at this deadline (16 HRs, 12 doubles). With that said, teams looking at DeJong may find it makes more sense to snag one of the below UTIL players instead.

Paul DeJong (CHW, $564k, UFA)

UTIL Players

Urshela can play anywhere on the infield, and Rosario has middle infield/outfield experience for a few organizations. They seem perfect bench adds for teams looking to be relevant in the fall.

Giovanny Urshela (DET, $483k, UFA)
Amed Rosario (TB, $483k, UFA)

Outfielders

Robert’s name keeps coming in and out of focus at the deadline, but a blockbuster move that includes both he and Garrett Crochet might be the headline of this entire week. Chisholm has also become a late yet prominent addition to the rumor mill.

Luis Robert Jr. (CHW, $4M, Control thru 2027)
Tommy Pham (CHW, $967k, UFA)
Jake Cave (COL, $322k, Arbitration thru 2025)
Kevin Pillar (LAA, $322k, UFA)
Taylor Ward (LAA, $1.5M, Arbitration thru 2026)
Jazz Chisholm (MIA, $846k, Arbitration thru 2025)
Harrison Bader (NYM, $3M, UFA)
Miguel Andujar (OAK, $548k, Arbitration thru 2025)
Michael Conforto (SF, $5.8M, UFA)
Mike Yastrzemski (SF, $2.5M, Arbitration thru 2025)
Randy Arozarena (TB, $2.6M, Arbitration thru 2026)
Lane Thomas (WSH, $1.75M, Arbitration thru 2025)