Analyzing Jordan Love's Incentive Package

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertDecember 04, 2023
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As we head down the home stretch of the 2023 regular season, one of the more polarizing stories to watch might be the finish of the Green Bay Packers, and more notably, of Jordan Love.

Love began the year with two outstanding performances, throwing for 6 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 118 Passer Rating. He backed that up however with 5 weeks averaging a 66 rating, with 8 picks against 5 TD passes.

But November and early December have been different stories. Despite notable injuries on the offensive side of the ball, Love appears to be settling into the offensive plan, and the speed of the NFL game.

The Packers have now won 4 out of their last 5 games, including a very strong victory against Kansas City this past Sunday night, putting their chances to make the playoffs at or around 70%. This leads us back to his newly restructured contract, which came loaded with $9M worth of salary escalators for 2024, based on a variety of mechanisms. We’ll take a snapshot look at each of these thresholds as we near the finish line.

RELATED:
Jordan Love's 2 year, $15.8M contract breakdown

Jordan Love’s $9M of Incentives 

Pro Bowl Selection: $1M

3 QBs are selected per conference. At this point it seems unlikely that Love will be one of the Top 3 NFC QBs honored (Prescott, Hurts, Goff, Purdy likely ahead of him). But it’s inconceivable.

65% Offensive Regular Season Snaps: $500,000

At the time of this piece, Love has taken over 99% of the Packers’ snaps this season. Barring injury, this escalator should be a lock.

Team Success Escalators

Love will add an extra $1M to his 2024 salary if one of three things occurs

  • 10 Regular Season Wins (65% snaps) OR

  • Playoff Berth (65% snaps) OR

  • Top 10 Passers Rating & Top 10 in TD Passes (65% Snaps)

The Packers are 6-6 headed into Week 14, with 5 games remaining. They currently hold a 70% chance to make the playoffs. Love is currently 16th in Passer Rating, and 6th in TD Passes. It seems highly likely that one of these triggers will vest.

Playoff Escalators

The Packers currently hold a 70% chance to make the playoffs, and Love has currently taken over 99% of Green Bay’s offensive snaps this season. 

  • 65% Regular Season Snaps + Playoff Berth: $500,000

  • 1 Playoff Win (65% Snaps): $500,000

  • Conference Title Win (65% Snaps): $1M

  • Super Bowl Win (65% Snaps): $1M

Statistical Escalators

Love is currently 16th in Passer Rating, 28th in Completion %, 6th in TD Passes, & 12th in Passing Yards. 

  • 65% Snaps & Top 10 Passer Rating: $500,000

  • 65% Snaps & Top 10 Completion %: $500,000

  • Top 10 Touchdown Passes: $500,000

  • Top 10 Passing Yards: $500,000

More Statistical Escalators

Love can earn a maximum of $1.5M from this group (or 3 out of 4). He’s currently 16th in Passer Rating, 28th in Completion %, 6th in TD Passes, & 12th in Passing Yards, on track to max out this escalator.

  • 65% Snaps & Top 16 in Passer Rating: $500,000

  • 65% Snaps & Top 16 in Completion %: $500,000

  • 65% Snaps & Top 16 in Passing Yards: $500,000

  • 65% Snaps & Top 16 in Passing TDs: $500,000

Assessing Love’s 2024 Compensation

As it currently stands, Jordan Love is guaranteed a $5.5M base salary in 2024, with a $500,000 workout bonus also likely to be earned. His base (P5) salary will increase with any incentive that is met from 2023, up to $9M new, or $15.5M in total.

Running through the above list, Love is currently on pace to earn $2.5M based on playing time and production alone. If the Packers make the playoffs, that number immediately jumps up to $4M, and will increase from there based on playoff wins.

The only other metrics to monitor closely appear to be Passing Yards (currently 12th, a Top 10 would secure him $500,000 more), and a Pro Bowl Selection ($1M).

With a 70% chance to make the playoffs, we’ll assume that Love is on pace for at least $4M escalator right now, increasing his 2024 compensation up to $10M.

So here’s the 100 million dollar question? If Jordan Love takes the Packers to the playoffs in his first full season, after restructuring his rookie deal to make life easier for Green Bay in the interim, should he be comfortable playing out this contract through 2024 - or will it immediately become time to sit down and negotiate a long-term, financially appropriate extension?

The Jimmy Garoppolo Conversation

One of the better comparisons to be made here might be Jimmy Garoppolo, who was traded from New England to San Francisco at the 2017 deadline, started 5 games for the Niners to finish off the season, then signed a 5 year, $137.5M extension prior to hitting free agent the following February. Garoppolo's $27.5M per year average was actually the largest in all of football at the time of the extension, and the contract was heavily front-loaded to benefit the Niners, who were in a funky financial window at the time. Looking at it differently, the $27.5M average salary represented 15.5% of the NFL Salary Cap that season. If we project that out to 2024, with a projected $240M league cap, that 15.5% metric would bring forth a $38M average salary.

In other words, if the Packers want to get comfortable with Jordan Love as their QB for a few seasons, Daniel Jones' 4 year, $160M contract with the Giants appears to be the starting point this offseason. Green Bay may very well opt to slow play this another year to further assess their QB1, rebuild a few important positions on the roster, and utilize a franchise tag in 2025 as needed.


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