Breaking down the Corbin Burnes Trade

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertFebruary 02, 2024
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The Baltimore Orioles made their first big splash of the offseason (fresh off an ownership sale announcement), in acquiring starting pitcher Corbin Burnes from the Milwaukee Brewers. We’ll spend a few minutes detailing the full terms of the trade, the immediate financial impact, & where things may be headed going forward.

The Complete Trade

Baltimore Orioles Acquire
SP Corbin Burnes

Milwaukee Brewers Acquire
INF Joey Ortiz
P D.L. Hall
#34 Competitive Balance Round A in 2024

Burnes brings a career 3.26 ERA, 129 ERA+, 11 strikeouts per 9 inning, 1.055 WHIP resume in 106 starts to the Orioles. He instantly becomes their ace (and arguably the best pitcher they’ve boasted in a decade). He’s struck out 677 batters over the past 3 seasons, carrying a near 13 WAR in that timeframe. It should be noted however that the overpowering portion of his game has declined over the past three seasons, & many of the advanced metrics portray Burnes as a much more “hittable” player than he was in 2021 (his peak production season thus far).

For Milwaukee, Joey Ortiz ranked 91st on the recent list of Top 100 prospects in MLB. He was called up in 2023 for a few games after carrying strong numbers in AAA and projects to be a big league ready shortstop (which could lead to even more trade movement for the Brewers in the coming weeks).

Hall came into the league projecting as a starting pitcher, but hasn’t been able to stick in that role as of yet. Milwaukee likely gives him a chance to make their rotation, but could eventually utilize him as a role pitcher in their bullpen.

The #34 overall pick gives the Brewers a chance to bolster their farm system a bit this July (competitive balance draft picks are eligible to be traded). Obviously there’s a bit of an unknown here, but this portion of the deal probably offers the biggest upside for Milwaukee when it’s all said and done.

2024 Financial Impact

Corbin Burnes has already locked in a $15.637M salary for the upcoming 2024 season by avoiding arbitration with Milwaukee back on January 11th. He immediately steps in as Balimore’s highest paid player & tax salary for the upcoming season. This was Burnes’ third and final run through arbitration, meaning he’s eligible for free agency next winter for the first time in his career.

Will Baltimore push for an immediate extension? It’s certainly possible, but Burnes and his agency may not be very motivated to lock anything in with the open market so close at this point. The 29-year-old currently projects to a 7 year, $166M contract in our system.

With Burnes in tow, the Orioles projected 40-man tax payroll now pushes over the $115M mark, well below the initial $234M threshold, but $25M more than they posted in 2023, and $32M more than they finished out in 2022.

On the other hand, the Brewers swap a $15M+ player for two pre-arbitration salaried players, and now project toward a $130M tax payroll for the upcoming season. This ranks 20th in MLB, behind teams like Kansas City, Colorado, Arizona, & Minnesota. Are the Brewers fully mailing this current iteration of division contention in? If so, look for players such as RP Devin Williams, & SS Willy Adames to be floated in trades sooner rather than later.

Future Thoughts

This is the very beginning of what could be an extremely successful (and subsequently very expensive) window for the Baltimore Orioles. When flipping ahead to post-2024 free agency, Burnes will be joined by Anthony Santander & John Means, both whom should carry large roles for the team this upcoming season.

As the new ownership takes a hold of things, the front office will soon (if not already now) be pressured into locking in long-term extensions for young stars Gunnar Henderson & Adley Rutschman, who are likely to further advance their value in the next few months.

And then there’s the looming contract purchase for 2022 #1 overall pick Jackson Holliday, who will make a case to break camp with the Orioles in the coming weeks, but should certainly become an impact player in the 2025 campaign.

The balancing act between keeping the tax payroll leveled, signing enough outside talent to remain legitimate contenders, & stagger internal contracts while keeping the core unit happy is a tough ask, but if it’s done correctly (Houston, Arizona recently), it can lead to plenty of October baseball.


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