Contract Breakdown Projections for 5 Notable NFL Extension Candidates

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertJuly 12, 2023
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#justin jefferson #chris jones #justin herbert #joe burrow #saquon barkley #terence steele #tony pollard #dak prescott #ceedee lamb #trevon diggs
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As NFL training camps approach, our deep dive into actual contract extension breakdown projections for Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Saquon Barkley, Chris Jones, Justin Jefferson & 5 notable Dallas Cowboys players.

Dak Prescott (QB, Cowboys)

Prescott & the Cowboys waited to the very last minute to lock in his first multi-year extension, a 4 year, $160M contract to bypass a $38M 2nd franchise tag in 2021. Just over two years later, Dallas is eyeing a version 2.0 of this contract, most notably to clean up a near $60M cap hit looming in 2024. With QB salaries soaring past Dak's current $40M pricepoint, what lies next for Prescott?

Projected Contract

There's a world where Dak only accepts a 2 or 3 year extension for his next deal in order to keep things as neat and tidy as possibly (term was a major sticking point for him the last go around). We'll push things out 4 years for this projection, offering up a 6 year, $265M contract that includes 4 years, $200M of new financials. The deal carries $128M fully guaranteed at signing (through 2025), with another $47M locking in March of 2024. Because of a March restructure that paid out $30M to Prescott, we've pushed the bulk of the cashflow on this new deal into 2024, in the form of a $75M option bonus. Any cap relief that the Cowboys are looking to gain in 2024 will quickly be mitigated by huge figures in 2025-2026 here, but we're relying on the assumption that Dallas will keep on kicking that can down the line until the sun sets. Early (large) March roster bonuses will afford them the opportunity for massive cap conversions on a yearly basis. The $175M practically guaranteed is structured entirely into the next 4 seasons, putting Dak on track to re-up for a 3rd time after 2026, at age 33.

CeeDee Lamb (WR, Cowboys)

Lamb became extension eligible for the first time after the 2022 season, his most productive year to date. His primary agent (Tory Dandy) has a strong track record of short and very sweet extensions for star wide receivers (Mike Williams, Chris Godwin, DK Metcalf, etc...), so we're following suit here for Lamb's next deal.

Projected Contract

Our projected extension for Lamb is more or less a cap-adjusted version of DK Metcalf's recent deal in Seattle, with a similar AAV, 2-year, & 3-year cash flow structure. We've stayed away from the double bonus system that Metcalf received, as the Cowboys generally prefer to deal with roster bonuses that they can choose to convert (or not) annually. This is a 3 year, $63.5M base contract on its face, with a chance to get $100M+ over the next 5 seasons in total value.

Tony Pollard (RB, Cowboys)

Pollard was on a fast track to a multi-year extension in Dallas when a broken fibula derailed the process. The Cowboys responded with a tag offered, and Pollard signed it almost immediately. Dallas has yet to replace Zeke Elliott on the roster, potentially further showing their trust and need for Pollard in this offseason.

Projected Contract

With the franchise tag already signed (and on the books), we're offering 2 new years, and $25M new money on top of it, including $23M fully guaranteed through 2024. This figure represents a (slight) increase over the $22.2M Pollard would secure on back to back franchise tags, but such is the life of a running back in the NFL. Our projection includes a $10M signing bonus & $11.5M in 2023 - again a slight increase over his current tag figure. All of 2024 is fully guaranteed at signing, with a $7.5M roster bonus to be paid out early in March. That same $7.5M bonus is available in 2025, though without any early vesting trigger attached to it. We've included two void years to allow the signing bonus to spread out the maximum 5 years.

Trevon Diggs (CB, Cowboys)

Diggs has developed into one of the best young corners in the game, and seems a lock to remain a fixture in Dallas for the next few years. Jaire Alexander ($21M per year) and Denzel Ward ($71.25M guaranteed) carry the top numbers at this position. It stands to reason that Diggs can challenge these numbers with his upcoming extension.

Projected Contract

We're projecting a 4 year, $86M extension for Trevon Diggs, making him the highest average paid CB in NFL history. Our predicted guarantee structure however ($43M at signing, $60.5M practically) fall slightly short of the top of the market, but still represent Top 3 figures in both cases. Dallas will have an early opt-out available after 2025, but will need to make a quick decision as the 2026 salary will fully guarantee in March of that offseason.

Terence Steele (OT, Cowboys)

Steele has started 13 games each of the last 3 seasons, making him an integral piece to the Cowboys puzzle. Dallas has plenty of mouths to feed, but losing a core offensive lineman shouldn't be a consideration with a roster attempting to contend annually.

Projected Contract

With Right Tackle contracts now over $20M per year at the top of the market, $15M becomes a standard extension point. We're projecting Steele to land a little higher on a total value basis, but right at that $15M per year in terms of guarantee structure ($45M practically guaranteed through 2025). This is a $65M contract over 5 years if it's played out in full.

Joe Burrow (QB, Bengals)

Burrow's extension is one of the more anticipated contracts in all of sports, as the Bengals have little wiggle room with their superstar QB. The 27 year old is averaging 284 passing yards per game a 104+ rating, completing nearly 70% of his passes over the past two seasons in Cincy. There will be a push to make this contract a "mini-Mahomes" structure, but with the cap growing rapidly, and QB pay increasing at an even faster rate, keeping this deal as neat and tidy as possible should be a priority for Burrow's camp.

Projected Contract

Our projected breakdown for Burrow's next deal involves tacking on 4 new years, $222M new money to his remaining 2 years, $35M, or a 6 year, $257M contract. The extension includes a $60M signing bonus, $75M of 2-year cash, and $120M of 3-year cash - the fully guaranteed at signing portion of this contract. Another $45M (his 2026 compensation) will become fully guaranteed next March, while a final $25M (a 2027 roster bonus) will become guaranteed for cap in March of 2025, bringing the practical guarantee on this contract to $190M. March roster bonuses in each of the last 5 seasons of this contract offer Burrow an early pay day, and the Bengals an opportunity to free up cap space with a simple conversion where necessary.

Justin Herbert (QB, Chargers)

The Chargers and QB Justin Herbert have been in negotiation talks for the better part of 5 months now, with very little progress being noted publicly. But as training camps approach, contracts for both he and Joe Burrow should become front and center talking points across the league. Like Burrow, Herbert shouldn't be wooed by an 8-10 year "career" contract offer for his first major pay day. With the league's financial landscape as healthy as ever, leveraging a get-in/get-out tactic should allow the 25-year-old to cash in on (at least) 3 major veteran contracts over the course of his NFL career.

Projected Contract

The Chargers haven't veered off the beaten path in terms of structure with their blockbuster contracts, so we won't project they'll do anything of the sort here either. Herbert gets a double bonus package that includes a $40M signing bonus in 2023, and a $25M option bonus for 2024. The early cash payouts equate to $72M through two years ($40M more than his current cashflow), and $112M through three years - representing the guaranteed at sign portion of this extension. From there another $63M of his contract becomes guaranteed for practical purposes, including his entire 2026 salary, and $20M of 2027 compensation, all of which carry early vesting triggers to ensure a payout.

Chris Jones (DT, Chiefs)

One of the best interior defensive linemen in all of football should never have been allowed to enter 2023 with an expiring contract, and it appears the Chiefs won't make that mistake, as the two sides have been deep in negotiation to extend the 29 year old this month. Aaron Donald's $31.6M per year, $95M guaranteed stand atop the DL list, but Jones should be next in line to approach those thresholds with his next contract.

Projected Contract

Our projected breakdown for Chris Jones' extension includes 3 new years, $93M new money on top of his 1 year, $20M remaining. We've added a void year to allow a $25M signing bonus to prorate over a full 5 seasons, which factors into $55M of 2-year cash, $82.5M of 3-year cash, both of which come in comfortably ahead of any DT not named Donald. The deal includes $54.5M fully guaranteed at signing, with another $27M set to lock in for cap/skill next March.

Saquon Barkley (RB, Giants)

The deadline for Barkley to sign a multi-year extension this summer is just days away (July 15th), so any compromising in the process will need to happen quickly. Barkley seems the most likely franchise tagged player to garner an extension, even if paying running backs has become a thing of the past in most cases. Barkley's $10.091M franchise tag would represent the 8th most cash paid out to a running back in 2023. A 2nd franchise tag would bring his 2-year total over $22.2M, so beating this number in upfront guarantee appears to be the largest hurdle for any extension.

Projected Contract

Our projected contract extension for Barkley includes $24M fully guaranteed at signing, with a chance to earn $30M over the next two seasons thanks to per game active bonuses and achievable incentives. The deal includes a $12M signing bonus, increasing Barkley's 2023 base compensation to $13.5M, with a chance to get to $16.25M. The Giants will see around $5M of cap savings for the upcoming season on this contract, while an early March roster bonus in 2024 can be converted to free up ample space next season as well without damaging the dead cap scenarios too much going forward.

Justin Jefferson (WR, Vikings)

It's hard to find a statistical category that Justin Jefferson hasn't eclipsed out of the gate through 3 NFL seasons, which doesn't bode well for any hopes of a "team-friendly" extension in Minnesota. Tyreek Hill's (fluffy) $30M per year and Cooper Kupp's $75M guaranteed are the current top numbers for WRs, though when it comes to rookie extensions, those figures drop to $25M (A.J. Brown) & $58.2M (DK Metcalf). Has Jefferson done enough to sit atop ALL WR numbers?

Projected Contract

We're bucking our usually conventional thinking here, putting Jefferson on the largest contract by every metric in NFL WR history. The 4 year, $128M extension pays out $54M through 2 years, $73M through 3 years with $53M fully guaranteed at signing (Tyreek Hill, $52.5M). Another $43M of salary becomes fully guaranteed in March of 2024, bringing the practical guarantees to a whopping $96M - $21M more than any WR has ever received. The double bonus structure of this contract keep the cap figures extremely tenable for the next two seasons, with a convertable base salaries in 2025-2026 as needed.


#justin jefferson #chris jones #justin herbert #joe burrow #saquon barkley #terence steele #tony pollard #dak prescott #ceedee lamb #trevon diggs
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