NBA Southeast Division Rotation and Roster Questions

Keith Smith
Keith Smith, Resident NBA ExpertSeptember 25, 2023
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The NBA preseason is right around the corner. Between the short training camp (compared to NFL or MLB) and the preseason games, it’s a chance for coaches and front offices to sort through their rotations and rosters. While the NBA features much smaller rosters than NFL or MLB, there are still decisions to be made. We’re going to go through the biggest rotation and roster decisions each team has ahead of them over the next month or so.

Atlanta Hawks

Who replaces John Collins in the starting lineup? 

It seems like Atlanta prepared for this eventuality when they acquired Saddiq Bey at last season’s trade deadline. Bey started in seven of the 25 games he played for the Hawks after being acquired. Bey put together his most efficient play of his career by far in those 25 games. He shot 47% overall, including 40% on five three-point attempts per game.

Bey and De’Andre Hunter aren’t really the classic forward combo, as both are more of a three than a four. But in the modern, switchable NBA, the Hawks should be fine starting these two together. One minor note: Bey and Hunter played 198 minutes together over 20 regular season games. Atlanta was -13 in those minutes. Not exactly a big enough sample size to worry about, but something to keep an eye on.

If Bey doesn’t start, Atlanta’s other options seem to be Bogdan Bogdanovic or Jalen Johnson. The former is unlikely, as Atlanta would be very small with Bogdanovic starting. He’s also a terrific sixth man, and the team can control his minutes (and wear and tear) easier in a bench role.

Johnson took a pretty big leap in his second year. He became semi-regular in the Hawks rotation and he looks poised for a bigger role this season. Johnson will probably play a lot, but when paired with Hunter last season, the Hawks were a whopping -63 in only 138 minutes over 36 games. For whatever reason, that forward grouping didn’t work.

Bet on Bey getting the first crack here, but Quin Snyder has some room to experiment with small-ball lineups. And Johnson is going to see plenty of run too.

Is it time to transition to Onyeka Okongwu as the starting center? 

Clint Capela has started in all but three of the 202 games he’s played with the Hawks over the last three years. He also remains really productive, as one of the NBA’s few nightly double-double guys. But Onyeka Okongwu is knocking on the door of being the starting five.

Capela will probably keep his starting job for this season, but this is getting close to flipping. Assuming Okongwu is extended or re-signed next summer, he’ll be Atlanta’s long-term five. And Capela only has two seasons left on his deal. Last note: In the six-game series against the Boston Celtics, the Hawks were better with Okongwu on the floor than Capela. That seems to be a precursor to where this is heading.

Charlotte Hornets

How does the wing/forward rotation shake out? 

It seems pretty clear that Steve Clifford will start LaMelo Ball at point guard and likely Mark Williams at center. After that, everything is at least somewhat of a question. The Hornets have more talent available than last season, but that creates a lot of questions.

Last year, P.J. Washington, Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier III started every game they played. The simple answer could be that those three all return to the starting group, and the returning Miles Bridges and rookie Brandon Miller come off the bench. And that could be the answer to start the season.

Bridges has to serve the final 10 games of his 30-game suspension to start the year. And Miller may be in a spot where the team eases him into the NBA by playing him off the bench. But eventually, Bridges will be back and Miller will need to start. That’s when it gets interesting.

There’s at least a decent chance Hayward will be hurt by the time either of those happens, given his injury history. That could free up a starting spot. The Hornets don’t exactly have great point guard depth, so Rozier could also transition into a high-minute reserve role too. But those are two high-priced veteran players, so that could be a little messy. A bit less-so with Hayward, as he’s in the final year of his contract.

It’s not a bad problem to have, particularly after a lost season where a lot of non-NBA guys saw minutes. But Clifford and the front office have to have a plan for making sure everyone sees the minutes they need, especially Miller.

Who wins the third two-way spot? 

Charlotte seems to be waging a four-way competition for their third two-way spot. Keep an eye on Angelo Allegri, a rookie out of Eastern Washington. He’s the best shooter of the bunch and he showed some increased playmaking ability in his senior year. He’d give a little bit of a different look from Amari Bailey and Leaky Black, who have the Hornets other two-way spots.

Miami Heat

Without Damian Lillard: Does Kyle Lowry start? 

Kyle Lowry officially lost his starting spot to Gabe Vincent after his month-long absence in February into March last season. But he had already ceded a lot of playing time to Vincent before that. Was that some foreshadowing that Lowry’s days as a starting lead guard are over?

Vincent is now gone, but is it as easy as just plugging Lowry back into the starting five? Tyler Herro is capable of taking on increased playmaking reps, and a lot of the offense runs through Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo anyway. Josh Richardson is also back in Miami, and some of his best play came when he ran the offense for the Heat.

Maybe Lowry gets the veteran treatment and starts, but the Heat still have options. Starting Richardson, or an extra shooter in Duncan Robinson, could help juice either end of the floor. Nikola Jovic is also going to get rotation minutes at some point, and there could be a domino effect of players sliding down a position when that happens.

With Damian Lillard: What is the rotation? 

We can’t even really begin to do a projection here, because we have no idea who will still be on the Heat roster if they make a trade for Damian Lillard. We can safely say that Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will be there. Offseason signings/re-signings like Josh Richardson, Thomas Bryant, Kevin Love and Orlando Robinson will all be around too. But that leaves a lot of rotation holes to fill. And the free agent market is just about dried up.

We’re really just presenting this question to note that the early part of the season could be a little rocky for Miami. Not only would they be incorporating a high-usage star in Lillard, which is always an adjustment, but it’s happening without much time to prepare. Remember, it took the Big Three Heat about a month to settle in and to find their groove. It’ll happen for this group too, but probably after a bumpy start.

Orlando Magic

Where do they find minutes for Anthony Black and Jett Howard? 

The Magic drafted the two rookies with the sixth and 11th picks in the 2023 NBA Draft. That’s a sign that the team is high on both players, but that might be a long-term thing. Right now, it’s hard to see how Black or Howard crack the rotation.

Orlando has a deep guard group with Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs as the presumed starters, and Cole Anthony and Gary Harris as the first backcourt players off the bench. Black comes in as an on-ball playmaker, so he’s got to work through that crowd.

Howard is a wing, which means he’s not only battling against Suggs and Harris for off-guard minutes, but also Franz Wagner (entrenched as a building block on the wing), veteran addition Joe Ingles and returners like Caleb Houstan and Chuma Okeke. Howard should be ahead of the last two, but playing over the first two seems like a bit of a stretch.

This isn’t really a problem. Orlando can make both players earn minutes, as opposed to being gifted them because of draft status. The bet here is that Black’s defense (and probably some injuries in the guard rotation) gets him on the floor first. But eventually, Howard’s shooting ability should see him get some run for a Magic team light on that particular skill.

Who wins the third two-way spot? 

The Magic have three players with NBA experience coming to camp and all three could snag the third two-way spot. Mac McClung will be the fan favorite, as his exciting style of play will have fans wanting more. The 2023 Dunk Contest champion would also help with the G League Magic’s debut in Osceola County this season.

Trevelin Queen has the best size of the three camp players. He’s been a dominant scorer in the G League, which would be a nice mix with defense-first players Kevon Harris and Admiral Schofield on the other two two-way spots.

Brandon Williams has the most NBA experience, as he started 16 games for the Portland Trail Blazers at the end of the 2022 season. He’s a little undersized, but Williams can score and is a developing playmaker.

Washington Wizards

Who is the backup center and how does that impact roster cuts? 

Washington is in the midst of a full-scale rebuild. All of the offseason movement has left the Wizards a little thin up front. We’re assuming Daniel Gafford reclaims the starting center spot. Gafford wasn’t bad last season, but Kristaps Porzingis was better and playing the two together was messy. So, count on Gafford being a bigger part of things this season.

Behind him, Washington has to figure things out. Mike Muscala was acquired in the Porzingis trade, but he’s not a lock to make the roster. The Wizards have to cut at least two players with fully guaranteed contracts, and Muscala isn’t likely a part of what they’re building.

That leaves backup center options to players like Taj Gibson (who was recently re-signed for his 15th NBA season), Xavier Cooks and…yeah. Because of that, Muscala could stick and Washington could clear the roster in another way.

Muscala would be a nice contrast to Gafford. He’s mostly a spot-up shooter, where Gafford exclusively works in the paint. Gibson is fine, because you know he’ll defend and rebound for about 10 minutes per game. Cooks is the most intriguing, if undersized option.

Cooks only played 10 NBA games after his late-season signing, but his numbers from the past four seasons in Australia are really encouraging. He plays bigger than his 6-foot-8 frame. Cooks is a rugged rebounder and can block some shots. He’s also a good passer, especially if he’s playing out of the high post area. The jumper is inconsistent, but Cooks will take a couple per game. Playing Cooks would be the non-conventional option, but why not experiment when you’re rebuilding?

How does the wing rotation shake out? 

For a rebuilding team, the Wizards have a lot of those “Hey! I like him!” players. And a lot of those guys are perimeter players. We can safely assume the Kyle Kuzma and Jordan Poole are firmly in the starting five. Who joins them and who else plays real minutes are the real questions.

Deni Avdija started most of last season, and he’s the best defensive wing the Wizards have. Unfortunately, his jumper has never come around. More worrisome? Avdija has taken fewer jumpers from year to year too. 54% of his shots came from in/around the paint, while 40% where from behind the arc. That’s not a terrible shot mix, but that 40% mix of three-pointers is down from 45% the previous season and 54% in Avdija’s rookie season. The mid-range shot numbers have also had a downward trend. That’s an abandonment of the jumper that can’t happen for a player with Avdija’s size/skill mix.

Corey Kispert is the opposite. He’s not a terrible defender, but not in Avdija’s league really either. Offensively, Kispert has tended toward becoming a three-point specialist. 62% of his shots were three-pointers as a rookie. That nudged up to 66% from deep as a sophomore. That’s not bad, because Kispert knocked down 42% of his triples last season. He’ll play, but how much and with who will be worth monitoring.

Landry Shamet is basically Kispert, but with less invested by Washington. They got him as collateral in the trading this summer. He might play, but he’s not going to be given real minutes over players with a future in Washington.

That brings us to Bilal Coulibaly. He’s going to play, because he’s oozing with potential and the Wizards traded up to draft him. If he knocks down shots, Coulibaly will eventually steal even more playing time from Avdija. And his defensive potential is the best on the roster too.

Last note: Keep an eye on Patrick Baldwin Jr. There’s a lot of talent there. He saw minimal NBA time as a rookie, but he did hit 38% from deep on limited attempts. Baldwin also flashed some skill in 20 G League games. He only turns 21 in mid-November, so there’s lots of room for growth. Don’t give up on him yet, even if his road to playing time is just as messy in Washington as it was with the Warriors.

 


#nba #atlanta hawks #charlotte hornets #miami heat #orlando magic #washington wizards #atlanta hawks #charlotte hornets #miami heat #orlando magic #washington wizards
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