NFL Offseason Positional Recap: Offense

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertSeptember 06, 2023
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Quarterbacks

Free Agency

3 Free Agent signings are projected to be Week 1 starters for their new teams: Derek Carr in New Orleans, Jimmy Garoppolo in Las Vegas, & Baker Mayfield in Tampa.

Carr secured the most guaranteed at signing (by far), with a $60M lock through 2024, while Garoppolo’s deal carried $33.75M guaranteed - as long as he was able to pass a training camp physical.

When excluding these two large deals, the average free agent QB contract from 2023 came in at $3.8M - middle of the road backup money. For the most part, teams aren’t letting anyone at this position get to the open market anymore.

All 2023 QB Free Agent Signings

Extensions

9 QBs locked in contract extensions this offseason, including 3 (Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert) that reset the market at their time of signing. Based on structure, these three quarterbacks should see a combined $583M in the next few seasons, with Herbert ($218M practically guaranteed) leading the way.

Daniel Jones & Geno Smith represent the next tier of QB extension money, locking into deals that begin as 2/$82M, & 1/$27.5M respectively for practical purposes.

All 2023 QB Extensions

Rankings

11 quarterbacks now carry a contract that averages at least $40M per year, while 3 have now eclipsed the $50M mark. The 50 veteran QBs currently under contract carry an average salary of $16.7M this season. The 32 supposed starting QBs (so Kyler Murray instead of Joshua Dobbs), combine for an average salary of $25.3M, the highest it’s ever been.

From a guarantee standpoint, Deshaun Watson’s $230M still stands on its own, but Herbert’s $218M of practical guarantee, and Lamar Jackson’s $135M fully guaranteed at signing how now set new barometers for the next wave of deals.

It used to be pretty standard practice for teams to allocate about 18% of the league salary cap to a veteran QB contract. There are now 7 contracts that account for more than 20% of the current salary cap threshold, with Justin Herbert’s $52.5M representing 23.35% in 2023.

Lamar Jackson’s $72.5M signing bonus from Baltimore obliterated the previous league high (Dak Prescott, $66M). Most teams have opted to utilize a 2, 3, or even 4 bonus structure to keep a flatter cash flow, but when the player holds as much leverage as Lamar Jackson had this spring, these upfront pay days will continue to exist going forward.

Looking Ahead

Kyler Murray’s status and subsequent contract options in Arizona will continue to be a must-watch scenario this season.

Patrick Mahomes already working to get out of his 12 year contract and into something fresh should be a warning shot to all QBs/agents. The money in this league is moving too quickly, and the power of the QB is running in unison with it. Keep it quick and dirty until further notice.

3 starting QBs (Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill) enter 2023 in contract years. It’s very possible that all three hit the open market next March 13th.

A NUMBER of current starting QBs will at least be in the discussion for a new contract in the coming months. They include: Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields

 

Running Backs

Free Agency

Miles Sanders & David Montgomery were the big names entering free agency, and they were rewarded with guarantees of $13M, $11M respectively. The highest average salary handed out to a free agent running back was processed just a few weeks ago, with Dalvin Cook signing a 1 year, $7M base value deal in NY.

In total, 38 running backs signed free agent contracts this offseason for a combined total of $61.9M fully guaranteed at signing, $1.6M per player.

All Free Agent Running Back Signings

Extensions

2 of the 5 running backs extensions this summer involved teams “sweetening the pot” from a franchise tag. The Raiders added $1.7M to Josh Jacobs’ tag number (by way of per game active bonuses), while the Giants gave Saquon Barkley the opportunity to earn an extra $990,000 by way of incentives for 2023. Not exactly a glaring campaign for the next generation of hopefully running backs.

All 2023 Running Back Extensions

Rankings

Christian McCaffrey has been the highest average paid running back in football since April of 2020, and there doesn’t appear to be a candidate to supplant him on the horizon. There’s a very real world where at least 3 of the Top 5 running back contracts in the league are dissipated after 2023 (Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones), bringing the position closer and closer to falling completely under the $10M per year mark.

The largest contract guarantee for a running back in 2023 went to Bijan Robinson, whose rookie contract in Atlanta fully guarantees him $21.9M through 2026. Robinson now holds the 4th largest guarantee of any active RB in the league, with draft-mate Jahmyr Gibbs ($17.8M) coming in at 6th.

When assuming two starting running backs per team in 2023 for practical purposes, the average salary of these 64 players chimes in at $3.39M, with a median coming in at just north of $1.6M. The minimum salary for a 7+ year veteran in the league is $1.165M this season.

Current Running Back Rankings

Looking Ahead

Jonathan Taylor’s status in Indy remains must-see-social-media. There’s a world where he joins a new team by Halloween, and is subsequently offered a near top of the market extension to be the workhorse for 2-3 seasons. Remember when that was a normal scenario for star running backs?

Clyde Edwards-Helaire is fully guaranteed $2M this season, but doesn’t appear to have a role with the Chiefs. His ice he stands on entering 2023 couldn’t be thinner, despite the financial security.

Queue up another laundry list of potentially available running backs for next March:
Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, & Tony Pollard are all probably headed toward a second franchise tag in February, until they’re not. Jonathan Taylor, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, JK Dobbins, Rashaad Penny, D'Andre Swift, Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, & A.J. Dillon could all hit the open market next spring.

 

Wide Receivers

Free Agency

It was a much quieter offseason in 2023 than this position saw a year ago, but 7 players locked in a guarantee at signing of at least $10M regardless, led by Allen Lazard’s $22M fully guaranteed from the Jets.

With that said, only 3 players (Allen Lazard, JuJu Smith-Schuster, & Adam Thielen) signed free agent contracts that contain 2 years of guarantee security. Everything else is a veritable or actual 1 & Done situation.

All Wide Receiver Free Agent Signings

Extensions

If you had DeVante Parker & Kalif Raymond as your top WR extensions this offseason, we should probably discuss a job opportunity here at Spotrac. Most of the big-name receivers were paid in 2022, leaving the cupboards fairly bare this time around. However, 9th inning walk off deal for Justin Jefferson in Minnesota would certainly change the dynamics of this list.

All 2023 Wide Receiver Extensions

Rankings

Tyreek Hill’s $30M mark still stands atop the list, but it’s a $24M per year contract for practical purposes (back loaded with a silly $45M salary to prop up the metrics). 13 WRs now earn at least $20M per year on average, while 22 are now at the $15M+ mark.

Cooper Kupp’s $75M guaranteed for practical purposes is still the high mark in that regard, but Justin Jefferson should annihilate that shortly, with Hill’s $52.5M fully guaranteed at signing is the number to beat from that side of the spectrum.

When assuming four starting wide receivers per team in 2023 for practical purposes, the average salary of these 128 players chimes in at $6.3M, with a median point coming in at exactly $3M. These numbers nearly double that of the 64 starting running backs in the game right now. The Top 64 WRs in the game carry an average salary north of $11M.

Looking Ahead

Justin Jefferson & CeeDee Lamb should represent the next big contracts at the position, continuing to push things forward quickly in a pass-first game.

A few notable names enter the season on expiring contracts: Tee Higgins (CIN), Mike Evans (TB), Marquise Brown (ARI), Calvin Ridley (JAX), while a few others will be looking to bolster their value in 2023 as they seek another NFL contract: Gabriel Davis, Darnell Mooney, Van Jefferson, Donovan Peoples-Jones.

 

Tight Ends

Free Agency

Despite a fairly nice list of available players, only 1 tight free agent end eclipsed $10M+ guaranteed this offseason (Hayden Hurst, $13M, Carolina), and only 2 (Hurst & Foster Moreau), signed deals that should last two seasons.

More proof that the Tight End financial market is quickly falling into Running Back territory.

All Tight End Free Agent Signings

Extensions

T.J. Hockenson offered a late splash to this metric with a $66M extension to remain in Minnesota this August. The deal includes $40.2M practically guaranteed, #1 among all active tight ends. This was a much needed contract for the position, after “fair-market” deals for Cole Kmet ($32M guaranteed) & Evan Engram ($24M guaranteed) hit the books early in the summer.

Juwan Johnson’s 2 year, $12M deal in New Orleans might just turn out to be the best value of all by year-end, as the 26-year-old is projected to have a major role in Derek Carr’s passing game this fall.

All 2023 Tight End Extensions

Rankings

Darren Waller’s $17M per year extension remains the highest average salary at the position, but T.J. Hockenson’s $16.5M deal not only approaches it, it provides $2.5M more per year in upfront cash flow. Hockenson’s deal also contains a year-early vest for his 3rd season salary, a rarity for Tight Ends and a very good place for the next group of players to work from in their own negotiations.

The game’s elite Tight Ends are accounting for around 7% of the league salary cap based on recent contracts. This represents about half of where the top Wide Receivers in the game fall in, and about ? of the going rate for a QB.

When assuming two starting Tight Ends per team in 2023 for practical purposes, the average salary of these 64 players chimes in at $5.2M, with a median point coming in at $2.7M. 

Looking Ahead

With the exception of Kyle Pitts (who needs a massive 2023 to get back on track), the prospect of another big Tight End contract coming around the corner is thin right now.

It’s possible that the Chiefs redo something with Travis Kelce in the next few months a bit of back & forward pay gesture, but it’s not a guarantee for the near 34-year-old.

George Kittle’s contract guarantees fall off after 2023, putting his remaining 2 year, $29M in a bit of question.

 

Offensive Lines

Free Agency

O-Line is still where the free agent money is at. 11 contracts of $20M or more (total value) were signed this offseason, with 4 offering guarantees north of $28M.

Jawaan Taylor (4 years, $80M, $60M guaranteed) was the big winner not only financially, but also in joining the Chiefs this spring, while Mike McGlinchey left San Francisco for Denver to the tune of $87.5M ($50M guaranteed).

Top Guarantees by Position
Left Tackle: Orlando Brown Jr. ($31.1M)
Right Tackle: Jawaan Taylor ($60M)
Guard: Ben Powers ($28.5M)
Center: Jason Kelce ($14.25M)

All Free Agent Offensive Lineman Signings

Extensions

We told you Andrew Thomas was going to break the bank this summer, and the Giants didn’t let us down. The 23-year-old signed a $117.5M extension in NY, including $67M fully guaranteed at signing.

All-2023-Extension-O-Line
Left Tackle: Andrew Thomas (NYG, $67M guaranteed)
Guard: Chris Lindstrom (ATL, $48.2M guaranteed)
Guard: Shaq Mason (HOU, $22M guaranteed)
Center: Jason Kelce (PHI, $14.25M guaranteed)

All 2023 Offensive Line Extensions

Rankings

Laremy Tunsil’s latest deal in Houston ($25M per year) now makes him the highest average paid OL in NFL history. The 29-year-old Left Tackle is fully guaranteed for the next 2 ½ years, with $72M+ now practical through 2025. 8 offensive lineman now earn $20M+ per year, while a whopping 31 now sit on contracts of $15M per year or more.

Andrew Thomas didn’t just bag the most guaranteed in NFL history ($67M), he got all of it fully guaranteed at signing, making him the number to beat in all regards.

As OL contracts continue to soar, so will the initial signing bonuses associated with them. Orlando Brown Jr. reset that market this offseason with a $31.1M bonus check to join the Bengals.

When assuming five starting Offensive Linemen per team in 2023 for practical purposes, the average salary of these 160 players chimes in at $7.2M, with a median point coming in at $4.5M. The Top 64 Offensive Linemen carry an average salary of $14.1M into the season.

Looking Ahead

Multiple starting left tackles are slated for free agency after 2023, including Tyron Smith (DAL), Duane Brown (NYJ), Donovan Smith (KC), & Trenton Brown (NE).

But for now, it appears that this could be the “winter of Guards”, as more than 50 players could hit the open market next March. Chris Lindstrom resent the Guard market this past spring, staying in Atlanta on a $20.5M per year deal.

With tackles now north of $25M, look for market resets both at Guard & Center to become big talking points in the coming year, as interior offensive linemen continue to become primary positions in today’s game.


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