Projected 2024 Franchise Tag Candidates

Michael Ginnitti
Michael Ginnitti, Managing Editor & NFL/MLB ExpertJanuary 03, 2024
© USA TODAY Sports

We’re less than 50 days away from the February 20th date that opens up the franchise tag window for NFL teams, running through March 5th. Spotrac has identified a few players who may be trending toward a tag offer this winter, including projected price tags, calculated market values, & thoughts for each.

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PROJECTED 2024 FRANCHISE TAG VALUES

Position 2024 Tag
Quarterback $36.3M
Running Back $11.3M
Wide Receiver $20.7M
Tight End $12M
Offensive Lineman $19.9M
Defensive Tackle $20.9M
Defensive End $20.2M
Linebacker $22.8M
Cornerback $18.8M
Safety $16.2M
Kicker/Punter $5.6M

* all values based on a estimated $242.5M 2024 league salary cap.

 

Keep in mind, not all players listed below are in line for the franchise tag values shown above. A player’s final franchise tag price is the greater of the league calculated value for their respective position OR 120% of their previous year’s salary cap figure (minus workout bonuses & incentives).

Kirk Cousins (QB, Vikings)

2024 Tag: Not Available
Current Market Value: $39.6M

Cousins isn’t eligible for a franchise tag this winter as his current contract with the Vikings won’t officially void until March 13th, well after the deadline to tag a player has passed. Minnesota has 2 ½ months to work out a new deal with their QB1 before Cousins can officially hit the open market.

Baker Mayfield (QB, Buccaneers)

Projected Tag: $36.3M
Current Market Value: $16.5M

Calling Mayfield a tag candidate this winter is probably a bit shortsighted, but the Buccaneers are division contenders because of Baker’s play this season. He’ll be a sought after QB1 on the open market this March if the Bucs let him get there, and - quite simply - if it ain’t broke, why try to change? A Derek Carr type contract (4 years, $150M) with team-friendly guarantee structure shouldn’t be out of the question here. 

Derrick Henry (RB, Titans)

2024 Tag: $19M
Current Market Value: $5M

120% of Henry’s current salary cap charge means a franchise tag value north of $19M in 2024. This ends any discussion of the Titans going this route to keep their near 30-year-old running back. There’s not even a precedent for RBs of this age to find $5M per year, let alone near $20M.

Other Unlikely RB Candidates: D'Andre Swift (PHI, $11.3M); Tony Pollard (DAL, $12.1M); Saquon Barkley (NYG, $12.1M); Josh Jacobs (LV, $14.1M)

Mike Evans (WR, Buccaneers)

2024 Tag: $28.4M
Current Market Value: $24M

Despite toppling the 30-year-old mark this past season, Evans hasn’t slowed down one bit. He’ll enter the offseason as arguably the best available weapon in all of football, projecting to a 4 year, $96M contract in our system. With that said, a $28M+ tag price is likely too rich for Tampa Bay to bite on.

Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Colts)

Projected Tag: $20.7M
Current Market Value: $22.7M

The Colts are building on something nice here, starting with young QB Anthony Richardson, recently extended RB Jonthan Taylor, and a career season in a walk year from Pittman Jr. Tough to imagine Indy letting him hit the open market, especially when the tag offers a bit of value hypothetically speaking. A 4 year, $92M contract seems within reason here.

Tee Higgins (WR, Bengals)

Projected Tag: $20.7M
Current Market Value: $16.5M

Higgins has been locked into the WR2 role for 4-straight seasons in Cincy, and has likely been offered contracts reflecting that. A franchise tag offer would represent an overpay based on this approach, making it extremely likely that the near 25-year-old hits the open market this March. Will another franchise value him at a WR1 ($22M-$25M per year) level?

Chris Jones (DT, Chiefs)

2024 Tag: $32.17M
Current Market Value: $28.2M

Jones held out through Week 1, hoping the Chiefs would increase their extension offer to his reported $30M per year asking price. They didn’t and he returned to action on an incentive-laden 1 year restructure instead. Jones will likely earn just under $22M this season when factoring in earned bonuses.

Going forward, the 120% rule means that a franchise tag for Chris Jones in 2024 will come in just over $32M - a hefty number for Kansas City to add to their salary cap in March. Will the two sides find common ground on an extension? Will Jones be tagged/traded at the start of the new league year? Everything is on the table here.

Justin Madubuike (DT, Ravens)

Projected Tag: $20.9M
Current Market Value: $20.3M

Madubuike came into 2023 with 8.5 career sacks across three seasons. He posted a 13 sack, 50+ tackle, 2 forced fumble season in his contract year. A $20M+ franchise tag won’t be cap friendly for the Ravens entering March, but keeping him around on a $22M(ish) per year extension could very well be in the cards.

Christian Wilkins (DT, Dolphins)

Projected Tag: $20.9M
Current Market Value: $20.2M

Despite a career year in 2023, Wilkins doesn’t quite have the total resume to mathematically calculate toward the $22M-$24M deals that Quinnen Williams, Daron Payne, or Jeffery Simmons have locked in. But he’s certainly in that conversation. Miami enters the 2024 offseason $41M of salary cap in the red, so a $21M franchise tag hit out of the gate isn’t ideal. This could be a situation to monitor in the coming weeks.

Brian Burns (OLB, Panthers)

Projected Tag: $23M
Current Market Value: $22M

Burns entered 2023 at a maximum value, eyeing T.J. Watt’s $28M per year, and then eventually Nick Bosa’s historic $34M. But it’s been a bit of a down year for the 25-year-old, as it has been for everyone involved with the Panthers’ organization. A tag & trade is very much within reason this offseason, allowing Carolina to recoup a few picks they gave away to secure Bryce Young last May. Contractually, don’t be surprised if Burns becomes the next $30M per year player when it’s all said and done.

Patrick Queen (LB, Ravens)

Projected Tag: $22.8M
Current Market Value: $18.5M

Queen’s future in Baltimore was put into question when the Ravens acquired & extended Roquan Smith last season. He’s responded with a massive season, putting his name back in contention for a major payday - whether he stays or goes. Baltimore isn’t flush with 2024 salary cap ($11M), and DT Justin Madubuike is also a tag/extension candidate, making it most likely that Queen is allowed to hit the open market next March.

Frankie Luvu (LB, Panthers)

Projected Tag: $22.8M
Current Market Value: $11.5M

Luvu has now put together back to back outstanding seasons in Carolina. The Panthers have a dozen holes to fill, so dropping a few dimes on an off-ball linebacker this winter probably isn’t in the cards. Luvu cashes in elsewhere next March.

Josh Allen (OLB, Jaguars)

Projected Tag: $22.8M
Current Market Value: $21.7M

After two above average campaigns in 2021 & 2022, Allen has saved the best for last, compiling 16.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 60+ tackles, and an INT for the Jags. He’ll be eyeing Bradley Chubb’s 5 year, $110M contract in Miami as a floor this winter.

Danielle Hunter (OLB, Vikings)

2024 Tag: Not Available
Current Market Value: $20M

Hunter restructured his contract with Minnesota to stick around on a 1 year, $17M base value. His 15+ sacks this season have already bumped that pay day up to $20M, his calculated value heading into the offseason. With that said, the current contract contains void years that won’t process until March 13th, making him unavailable to be franchise tagged this February. 

Jaylon Johnson (CB, Bears)

Projected Tag: $18.8M
Current Market Value: $15.7M

Johnson is putting together his best season (by a mile) in a walk year with Chicago. The Bears appear to have turned a corner, so keeping Johnson around long-term should be a priority. Slapping a tag on him to buy some extra time should be a no-brainer for an organization slated to be very aggressive this offseason. JC Jackson’s 5 year, $82.5M contract should be within reach for Johnson this winter.

Antoine Winfield Jr. (S, Buccaneers)

Projected Tag: $16.25M
Current Market Value: $18.5M

Winfield might be the best safety in all of football as he nears free agency for the first time. The 25-year-old has compiled over 115 tackles, 5 sacks, 5 forced fumbles, and 3 INTs in his walk year, and should be eyeing Derwin James’ $19.1M per year & $42M guaranteed this offseason.

Xavier McKinney (S, Giants)

Projected Tag: $16.25M
Current Market Value: $10.5M

McKinney can fill up the stat board when healthy, and is particularly stout against the run. Is he a top of the market contract candidate? No, which probably makes the franchise tag value a little too rich for NY’s blood.


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